Search results for: fire probabilistic risk assessment

Authors: Ambalika Ekka

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In today’s world, the growing demand for urban built forms has resulted in the production and consumption of building materials i.e. embodied energy in building construction, leading to pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Therefore, new buildings will offer a unique opportunity to implement more energy efficient building without compromising on building performance of the building. Embodied energy of building materials forms major contribution to embodied energy in buildings. The paper results in an approach towards designing an energy efficient apartment building through embodied energy assessment. This paper discusses the trend of residential development in Rourkela, which includes three case studies of the contemporary houses, followed by architectural elements, number of storeys, predominant material use and plot sizes using primary data. It results in identification of predominant material used and other characteristics in urban area. Further, the embodied energy coefficients of various dominant building materials and alternative materials manufactured in Indian Industry is taken in consideration from secondary source i.e. literature study. The paper analyses the embodied energy by estimating materials and operational energy of proposed building followed by altering the specifications of the materials based on the building components i.e. walls, flooring, windows, insulation and roof through res build India software and comparison of different options is assessed with consideration of sustainable parameters. This paper results that autoclaved aerated concrete block only reaches the energy performance Index benchmark i.e. 69.35 kWh/m² yr i.e. by saving 4% of operational energy and as embodied energy has no particular index, out of all materials it has the highest EE 23206202.43  MJ.

Keywords: energy efficient, embodied energy, EPI, building materials

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Authors: Yegnanew A. Shiferaw

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Background: commodity price volatility originating from excessive commodity price fluctuation has been a global problem especially after the recent financial crises. Volatility is a measure of risk or uncertainty in financial analysis. It plays a vital role in risk management, portfolio management, and pricing equity. Objectives: the core objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between the prices of agricultural commodities with oil price, gas price, coal price and exchange rate (USD/Rand). In addition, the paper tries to fit an appropriate model that best describes the log return price volatility and estimate Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall. Data and methods: the data used in this study are the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices from 02 January 2007 to 31st October 2016. The data sets consists of the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices namely: white maize, yellow maize, wheat, sunflower, soya, corn, and sorghum. The paper applies the three-state Markov-switching (MS) regression, the standard single-regime GARCH and the two regime Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models. Results: to choose the best fit model, the log-likelihood function, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and deviance information criterion (DIC) are employed under three distributions for innovations. The results indicate that: (i) the price of agricultural commodities was found to be significantly associated with the price of coal, price of natural gas, price of oil and exchange rate, (ii) for all agricultural commodities except sunflower, k=3 had higher log-likelihood values and lower AIC and BIC values. Thus, the three-state MS regression model outperformed the two-state MS regression model (iii) MS-GARCH(1,1) with generalized error distribution (ged) innovation performs best for white maize and yellow maize; MS-GARCH(1,1) with student-t distribution (std) innovation performs better for sorghum; MS-gjrGARCH(1,1) with ged innovation performs better for wheat, sunflower and soya and MS-GARCH(1,1) with std innovation performs better for corn. In conclusion, this paper provided a practical guide for modelling agricultural commodity prices by MS regression and MS-GARCH processes. This paper can be good as a reference when facing modelling agricultural commodity price problems.

Keywords: commodity prices, MS-GARCH model, MS regression model, South Africa, volatility

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Authors: Justyna Mroczkowska

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Social worker's ability to provide culturally sensitive assistance in child protection is taken for granted; given limited training opportunities and lack of clear guidance, practitioners report working with migrant families more demanding in comparison to working with native families. In this study, the author developed and factor analyzed the Norwegian Cultural Self-Efficacy Scale to describe the level of cultural capability among Norwegian child protection professionals. The study aimed to determine the main influencing factors to cultural efficacy and examine the relationship between self-efficacy and perceived difficulty in working with migrant families. The scale was administered to child protection workers in Norway (N=251), and the reliability of the scale measured by Cronbach's alpha coefficient was .904. The confirmatory factor analysis of social work cultural self-efficacy found support for four separate but correlated subscales: Assessment, Communication, Support Request, and Teamwork. Regression analyses found the experience in working with migrant families, training and support from external agencies, and colleague support to be significant predictors of cultural self-efficacy. Self-efficacy in assessment skills and self-efficacy in communication skills were moderately related to the perceived difficulty to work with migrant families. The findings conclude with previous research and highlight the need for both professional development programs and institutional resources to be provided to support the practitioner's preparation for multicultural practice in child protection.

Keywords: child protection, cultural self-efficacy, cultural competency, migration, resources

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Authors: Wynne De Jong, Robert Miller, Ross Riggs

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Beyond the number of nurses providing care for patients, having nurses with the right skills, experience and education is essential to ensure the best possible outcomes for patients. Research studies continue to link nurse staffing and skill mix with nurse-sensitive patient outcomes; numerous studies clearly show that superior patient outcomes are associated with higher levels of regulated staff. Due to the limited number of tools and processes available to assist nurse leaders with staffing models of care, nurse leaders are constantly faced with the ongoing challenge to ensure their staffing models of care best suit their patient population. In 2009, several hospitals in Ontario, Canada participated in a research study to develop and evaluate an RN/RPN utilization toolkit. The purpose of this study was to develop and evaluate a toolkit for Registered Nurses/Registered Practical Nurses Staff mix decision-making based on the College of Nurses of Ontario, Canada practice standards for the utilization of RNs and RPNs. This paper will highlight how an organization has further developed the Patient Care Needs Assessment (PCNA) questionnaire, a major component of the toolkit. Moreover, it will demonstrate how it has utilized the information from PCNA to clearly identify patient and family care needs, thus providing evidence-based results to assist leaders with matching the best staffing skill mix to their patients.

Keywords: nurse staffing models of care, skill mix, nursing health human resources, patient safety

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Authors: Paul Rowley, Adam Thirkill, Nick Doylend, Philip Leicester, Becky Gough

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The dynamic performance of all energy generation technologies is impacted to varying degrees by the stochastic properties of the wider system within which the generation technology is located. This stochasticity can include the varying nature of ambient renewable energy resources such as wind or solar radiation, or unpredicted changes in energy demand which impact upon the operational behaviour of thermal generation technologies. An understanding of these stochastic impacts are especially important in contexts such as highly distributed (or embedded) generation, where an understanding of issues affecting the individual or aggregated performance of high numbers of relatively small generators is especially important, such as in ESCO projects. Probabilistic evaluation of monitored or simulated performance data is one technique which can provide an insight into the dynamic performance characteristics of generating systems, both in a prognostic sense (such as the prediction of future performance at the project’s design stage) as well as in a diagnostic sense (such as in the real-time analysis of underperforming systems). In this work, we describe the development, application and outcomes of a new approach to the acquisition of datasets suitable for use in the subsequent performance and impact analysis (including the use of Bayesian approaches) for a number of distributed generation technologies. The application of the approach is illustrated using a number of case studies involving domestic and small commercial scale photovoltaic, solar thermal and natural gas boiler installations, and the results as presented show that the methodology offers significant advantages in terms of plant efficiency prediction or diagnosis, along with allied environmental and social impacts such as greenhouse gas emission reduction or fuel affordability.

Keywords: renewable energy, dynamic performance simulation, Bayesian analysis, distributed generation

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Authors: A. B. M. Rezaul Islam, Ernur Karadogan

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Shape memory alloys (SMAs) are known for their shape memory effect and pseudoelasticity behavior. Their thermomechanical behaviors are modeled by numerous researchers using microscopic thermodynamic and macroscopic phenomenological point of view. Tanaka, Liang-Rogers and Ivshin-Pence models are some of the most popular SMA macroscopic phenomenological constitutive models. They describe SMA behavior in terms of stress, strain and temperature. These models involve material parameters and they have associated uncertainty present in them. At different operating temperatures, the uncertainty propagates to the output when the material is subjected to loading followed by unloading. The propagation of uncertainty while utilizing these models in real-life application can result in performance discrepancies or failure at extreme conditions. To resolve this, we used probabilistic approach to perform the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of Tanaka, Liang-Rogers, and Ivshin-Pence models. Sobol and extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Testing (eFAST) methods have been used to perform the sensitivity analysis for simulated isothermal loading/unloading at various operating temperatures. As per the results, it is evident that the models vary due to the change in operating temperature and loading condition. The average and stress-dependent sensitivity indices present the most significant parameters at several temperatures. This work highlights the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis results and shows comparison of them at different temperatures and loading conditions for all these models. The analysis presented will aid in designing engineering applications by eliminating the probability of model failure due to the uncertainty in the input parameters. Thus, it is recommended to have a proper understanding of sensitive parameters and the uncertainty propagation at several operating temperatures and loading conditions as per Tanaka, Liang-Rogers, and Ivshin-Pence model.

Keywords: constitutive models, FAST sensitivity analysis, sensitivity analysis, sobol, shape memory alloy, uncertainty analysis

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Authors: Wilson Handoko, Farshid Pahlevani, Isha Singla, Himanish Kumar, Veena Sahajwalla

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Aluminium bronze alloys are well known for their superior abrasion, tensile strength and non-magnetic properties, due to the co-presence of iron (Fe) and aluminium (Al) as alloying elements and have been commonly used in many industrial applications. However, continuous exposure to the marine environment will accelerate the risk of a tendency to Al bronze alloys parts failures. Although a higher level of corrosion resistance properties can be achieved by modifying its elemental composition, it will come at a price through the complex manufacturing process and increases the risk of reducing the ductility of Al bronze alloy. In this research, the use of ironmaking slag and waste plastic as the input source for surface modification of Al bronze alloy was implemented. Microstructural analysis conducted using polarised light microscopy and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) that is equipped with energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS). An electrochemical corrosion test was carried out through Tafel polarisation method and calculation of protection efficiency against the base-material was determined. Results have indicated that uniform modified surface which is as the result of selective diffusion process, has enhanced corrosion resistance properties up to 12.67%. This approach has opened a new opportunity to access various industrial utilisations in commercial scale through minimising the dependency on natural resources by transforming waste sources into the protective coating in environmentally friendly and cost-effective ways.

Keywords: aluminium bronze, waste-based surface modification, tafel polarisation, corrosion resistance

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Authors: Maria M. Calheiros, Carla Silva, Eunice Magalhães

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Professionals working in child protection services (CPS) need to have common and clear criteria to identify cases of maltreatment and to differentiate levels of severity in order to determine when CPS intervention is required, its nature and urgency, and, in most countries, the service that will be in charge of the case (community or specialized CPS). Actually, decision-making process is complex in CPS, and, for that reason, such criteria are particularly important for who significantly contribute to that decision-making in child maltreatment cases. The main objective of this presentation is to describe the Maltreatment Severity Assessment Questionnaire (MSQ), specifically designed to be used by professionals in the CPS, which adopts a multidimensional approach and uses a scale of severity within subtypes. Specifically, we aim to provide evidence of validity and reliability of this tool, in order to improve the quality and validity of assessment processes and, consequently, the decision making in CPS. The total sample was composed of 1000 children and/or adolescents (51.1% boys), aged between 0 and 18 years old (M = 9.47; DP = 4.51). All the participants were referred to official institutions of the children and youth protective system. Children and adolescents maltreatment (abuse, neglect experiences and sexual abuse) were assessed with 21 items of the Maltreatment Severity Questionnaire (MSQ), by professionals of CPS. Each item (sub-type) was composed of four descriptors of increasing severity. Professionals rated the level of severity, using a 4-point scale (1= minimally severe; 2= moderately severe; 3= highly severe; 4= extremely severe). The construct validity of the Maltreatment Severity Questionnaire was assessed with a holdout method, performing an Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) followed by a Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA). The final solution comprised 18 items organized in three factors 47.3% of variance explained. ‘Physical neglect’ (eight items) was defined by parental omissions concerning the insurance and monitoring of the child’s physical well-being and health, namely in terms of clothing, hygiene, housing conditions and contextual environmental security. ‘Physical and Psychological Abuse’ (four items) described abusive physical and psychological actions, namely, coercive/punitive disciplinary methods, physically violent methods or verbal interactions that offend and denigrate the child, with the potential to disrupt psychological attributes (e.g., self-esteem). ‘Psychological neglect’ (six items) involved omissions related to children emotional development, mental health monitoring, school attendance, development needs, as well as inappropriate relationship patterns with attachment figures. Results indicated a good reliability of all the factors. The assessment of child maltreatment cases with MSQ could have a set of practical and research implications: a) It is a valid and reliable multidimensional instrument to measure child maltreatment, b) It is an instrument integrating the co-occurrence of various types of maltreatment and a within-subtypes scale of severity; c) Specifically designed for professionals, it may assist them in decision-making processes; d) More than using case file reports to evaluate maltreatment experiences, researchers could guide more appropriately their research about determinants and consequences of maltreatment.

Keywords: assessment, maltreatment, children and youth, decision-making

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Authors: Amir Ikram, Faisal Ijaz, Qin Su

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The empirical study was undertaken to explore the determinants of non-performing loans (NPLs) of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) sector held by the commercial banks. Primary data was collected through well-structured survey questionnaire from credit analysts/bankers of 42 branches of 9 commercial banks, operating in the district of Lahore (Pakistan), for 2014-2015. Selective descriptive analysis and Pearson chi-square technique were used to illustrate and evaluate the significance of different variables affecting NPLs. Branch age, duration of the loan, and credit policy were found to be significant determinants of NPLs. The study proposes that bank-specific and SME-specific microeconomic variables directly influence NPLs, while macroeconomic factors act as intermediary variables. Framework exhibiting causal nexus of NPLs was also drawn on the basis of empirical findings. The results elaborate various origins of NPLs and suggest that they are primarily instigated by the loan sanctioning procedure of the financial institution. The paper also underlines the risk management practices adopted by the bank at branch level to averse the risk of loan default. Empirical investigation of bank-specific microeconomic factors of NPLs with respect to Pakistan’s economy is the novelty of the study. Broader strategic policy implications are provided for credit analysts and entrepreneurs.

Keywords: commercial banks, microeconomic factors, non-performing loans, small and medium enterprises

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Authors: Nalluri Lakshmi Ramu, C. Venkat Nihit, Narayana Kumar, Dillep

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Masonry bridges are the iconic heritage transportation infrastructure throughout the world. Continuous increase in traffic loads and speed have kept engineers in dilemma about their structural performance and capacity. Henceforth, research community has an urgent need to propose an effective methodology and validate on real-time bridges. The presented research aims to assess the structural health of an Eighty-year-old masonry railway bridge in India using wireless accelerometer sensors. The bridge consists of 44 spans with length of 24.2 m each and individual pier is 13 m tall laid on well foundation. To calculate the dynamic characteristic properties of the bridge, ambient vibrations were recorded from the moving traffic at various speeds and the same are compared with the developed three-dimensional numerical model using finite element-based software. The conclusions about the weaker or deteriorated piers are drawn from the comparison of frequencies obtained from the experimental tests conducted on alternative spans. Masonry is a heterogeneous anisotropic material made up of incoherent materials (such as bricks, stones, and blocks). It is most likely the earliest largely used construction material. Masonry bridges, which were typically constructed of brick and stone, are still a key feature of the world's highway and railway networks. There are 1,47,523 railway bridges across India and about 15% of these bridges are built by masonry, which are around 80 to 100 year old. The cultural significance of masonry bridges cannot be overstated. These bridges are considered to be complicated due to the presence of arches, spandrel walls, piers, foundations, and soils. Due to traffic loads and vibrations, wind, rain, frost attack, high/low temperature cycles, moisture, earthquakes, river overflows, floods, scour, and soil under their foundations may cause material deterioration, opening of joints and ring separation in arch barrels, cracks in piers, loss of brick-stones and mortar joints, distortion of the arch profile. Few NDT tests like Flat jack Tests are being employed to access the homogeneity, durability of masonry structure, however there are many drawbacks because of the test. A modern approach of structural health assessment of masonry structures by vibration analysis, frequencies and stiffness properties is being explored in this paper.

Keywords: masonry bridges, condition assessment, wireless sensors, numerical analysis modal frequencies

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Authors: Anacletus Ogbunkwu

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It is very disheartening that fake news or inaccurate information spread like wide fire and even with greater speed than fact based news/information. The peak of this anomaly is manifest in information management on the Corona virus pandemic, political/leadership based information, ethnic bigotry, unwarranted panics, false alarms, religious fanaticism, and business moguls in their advertorials, comedies, etc. This ugly situation has left Nigeria and her citizens with emotional trauma, unguided agitations, incessant tribal wars, lost of life and property, widened disunity among Nigerian ethnic and religious groups, amplified insecurity, aided election violence, etc. Unfortunately, among the major driving factors to this misinformation and conspiracy are the official/government and private news agencies, gossip, comedians, and social media handles such as; facebook, twitter, whatsapp, instagram, and online news agencies, etc. Thus this paper examines the impact of misinformation here referred to as infodemic. Also, it studies the epistemic effect of misinformation on the citizens of Nigeria in order to find ways of abating this anomaly for a better society. The methods of exposition and hermeneutics will be used in order to gain in-depth study of the details of infodemic in Nigeria and to offer philosophical analysis/interpretation of data as gathered, respectively. This paper concludes that misinformation or fake news has a perilous effect of epistemic mistrust to Nigeria and her citizens; hence infodemic is a cog in the wheel of National progress.

Keywords: nigeria, infodemic, language, media, news, progress

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Authors: Delphine Duval, Morgan Mangeas, Charlie Huveneers, Adam Barnett, Laurent Vigliola

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The global number of shark bites has increased over the past four decades with, however, high regional variability both in space and time. A systematic review, aligned with the 2020 PRISMA guidelines, explored the peer-reviewed literature published between 1960 and 2023 to identify factors potentially explaining trends in human-shark interactions. Results revealed that variations in the frequency of human-shark interactions could be explained by a plethora of factors, including changes in prey availability, environmental conditions, human and shark population density and behavior, as well as habitat destruction. However, to our best knowledge, only five studies have conducted statistical assessments of the relative contribution of these factors. The increased number in human-shark interactions and the frequent clusters of shark bites within short timeframes offer opportunities to test the causative factors that may explain trends in unprovoked shark bites. it study aims to evaluate the impact of marine protected areas (MPAs) on the number of human-shark interactions, using data from the Global Shark Attack File and the World Database on Protected Areas. Results indicate contrasting effects of MPAs at different spatial scales. Enhancing our understanding of the factors contributing to shark bites is essential for improving risk reduction policies for humans and conservation plans for shark populations.

Keywords: unprovoked shark interactions, marine protected areas, attack risk, human-wildlife interaction

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Authors: Akintayo Opawole, Godwin O. Jagboro

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Research efforts on infrastructure development in Nigeria had not provided adequate assessment of issues essential for policy response by the government to address infrastructure deficiency. One major gap existing in previous studies is the assessment of challenges facing the budgetary financing model. Based on a case study of Osun State in Southwestern Nigeria, factors affecting budgetary financing of public infrastructure were identified from literature and brainstorming. Respondents were: 6 architects, 4 quantity surveyors, 6 town planners, 5 estate surveyors, 4 builders, 21 engineers and 26 economists/accountants ranging from principal to director who have been involved in policy making process with respect to infrastructure development in the public service of Osun state. The identified variables were subjected to factor analysis. The Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin measure of sampling adequacy tests carried out (KMO, 0.785) showed that the data collected were adequate for the analysis and the Bartlett’s test of sphericity (0.000) showed the data upon which the analysis was carried out was reliable. Results showed that factors such as poor collaboration between the state and local government establishments, absence of credible database system and inadequate funding of maintenance were the most significant to infrastructure development in the State. Policy responses to address challenges of infrastructure development in the state were identified to focus on creation of legal framework for liberation policy, enforcement of ‘due process’ in the procurement and establishment of monitoring system for project delivery.

Keywords: development, infrastructure, financing, procurement

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Authors: Carolyn Whyte, Tina Halai, Sonita Koshal

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Aim: There are many methods available to assess the potential difficulty of third molar surgery. This study investigated various factors to assess whether they had a bearing on the difficulties encountered. Study design: A retrospective study was completed of 62 single mandibular third molar teeth removed under day case general anaesthesia between May 2016 and August 2016 by 3 consultant oral surgeons. Method: Data collection was by examining the OPG radiographs of each tooth and recording the necessary data. This was depth of impaction, angulation, bony impaction, point of application in relation to second molar, root morphology, Pell and Gregory classification and Winters Lines. This was completed by one assessor and verified by another. Information on medical history, anxiety, ethnicity and age were recorded. Case notes and surgical entries were examined for any difficulties encountered. Results: There were 5 cases which encountered surgical difficulties which included fracture of root apices (3) which were left in situ, prolonged bleeding (1) and post-operative numbness >6 months(1). Four of the 5 cases had Pell and Gregory classification as (B) where the occlusal plane of the impacted tooth is between the occlusal plane and the cervical line of the adjacent tooth. 80% of cases had the point of application as either coronal or apical one third (1/3) in relation to the second molar. However, there was variability in all other aspects of assessment in predicting difficulty of removal. Conclusions: Of the cases which encountered difficulties they all had at least one predictor of potential complexity but these varied case by case.

Keywords: impaction, mandibular third molar, radiographic assessment, surgical removal

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Authors: Faheem Ur Rehman, Muhammad Khalil Khan, Miao Qing

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This study investigated the asymmetric links and portfolio strategies between green bonds and the markets of three different cryptocurrencies, i.e., green, Islamic, and conventional, using data from January 1, 2018, to April 8, 2022, and employing asymmetric TVP-VAR model to quantify risk spillovers in the network analysis. In addition, we use the minimum variance, minimum correlation, and minimum connectedness methodologies to assess the portfolio implications. The results of the asymmetric dynamic connectedness index (TCI) model show that by adopting cryptocurrencies for digital finance, risk spillovers are found to be reduced. The findings of net directional connectedness demonstrate that during the study period, green bonds consistently get return spillovers from all other network variables. Positive return spillovers are bigger in magnitude than negative ones. These results imply that the influence of the green bond market on the cryptocurrency markets is decreasing. Positive return spillovers generate higher connectedness values for (HG, BNB, and TRX) coins and persistent net recipients in the specific network. On the other hand, Cardano and ADA coins are persistent net transmitters in the system. XLM and MIOTA's responsibilities shift over time, and there is evidence of asymmetry when both positive and negative returns are considered. According to the pairwise portfolio weights, BNB vs. BTC has the largest portfolio weights in the system, followed by BNB vs. Ethereum, suggesting the best investment strategies in the network.

Keywords: asymmetric TVP-VAR, global sustainable index, cryptocurrency, portfolios

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Authors: Dipak Subedi, Anil Giri, Christine Whitt, Tia McDonald

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This study aims to understand the impact of the pandemic on the overall economic well-being of the agricultural sector of the United States. The two key metrics used to examine the economic well-being are the bankruptcy rate of the U.S. farm operations and the operating profit margin. One of the primary reasons for farm operations (in the U.S.) to file for bankruptcy is continuous negative profit or a significant decrease in profit. The pandemic caused significant supply and demand shocks in the domestic market. Furthermore, the ongoing trade disruptions, especially with China, also impacted the prices of agricultural commodities. The significantly reduced demand for ethanol and closure of meat processing plants affected both livestock and crop producers. This study uses data from courts to examine the bankruptcy rate over time of U.S. farm operations. Preliminary results suggest there wasn’t an increase in farm operations filing for bankruptcy in 2020. This was most likely because of record high Government payments to producers in 2020. The Federal Government made direct payments of more than $45 billion in 2020. One commonly used economic metric to measure farm profitability is the operating profit margin (OPM). Operating profit margin measures profitability as a share of the total value of production and government payments. The Economic Research Service of the United States Department of Agriculture defines a farm operation to be in a) a high-risk zone if the OPM is less than 10 percent and b) a low-risk zone if the OPM is higher than 25 percent. For this study, OPM was calculated for small, medium, and large-scale farm operations using the data from the Agriculture Resource Management Survey (OPM). Results show that except for small family farms, the share of farms in high-risk zone decreased in 2020 compared to the most recent non-pandemic year, 2019. This was most likely due to higher commodity prices at the end of 2020 and record-high government payments. Further investigation suggests a lower share of smaller farm operations receiving lower average government payments resulting in a large share (over 70 percent) being in the critical zone. This study should be of interest to multiple stakeholders, including policymakers across the globe, as it shows the resilience of the U.S. agricultural system as well as (some) impact of government payments.

Keywords: U.S. farm sector, COVID-19, operating profit margin, farm bankruptcy, ag finance, government payments to the farm sector

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Authors: Asawari Ajay Avhad

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The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a hydrological model designed to predict the complex interactions within natural and human-altered watersheds. This research applies the SWAT model to the Ulhas River basin, a small watershed undergoing urbanization and characterized by bowl-like topography. Three simulation scenarios (LC17, LC22, and LC27) are investigated, each representing different land use and land cover (LULC) configurations, to assess the impact of urbanization on runoff. The LULC for the year 2027 is generated using the MOLUSCE Plugin of QGIS, incorporating various spatial factors such as DEM, Distance from Road, Distance from River, Slope, and distance from settlements. Future climate data is simulated within the SWAT model using historical data spanning 30 years. A susceptibility map for runoff across the basin is created, classifying runoff into five susceptibility levels ranging from very low to very high. Sub-basins corresponding to major urban settlements are identified as highly susceptible to runoff. With consideration of future climate projections, a slight increase in runoff is forecasted. The reliability of the methodology was validated through the identification of sub-basins known for experiencing severe flood events, which were determined to be highly susceptible to runoff. The susceptibility map successfully pinpointed these sub-basins with a track record of extreme flood occurrences, thus reinforcing the credibility of the assessment methodology. This study suggests that the methodology employed could serve as a valuable tool in flood management planning.

Keywords: future land use impact, flood management, run off prediction, ArcSWAT

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Authors: Kirsty Biggs, Peter Larsen-Disney

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Background: The UK cervical screening programme significantly reduces cancer mortality through the early detection of abnormal cells. Despite this, over a quarter of eligible women choose not to attend their appointment. Objective: To qualitatively explore patients’ barriers to attending cervical smear appointments and identify key trends of cervical screening behaviour, knowledge, and attitudes in primary and secondary care. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted to evaluate smear services in Brighton and Hove using questionnaires in general practice and colposcopy. 226 patients participated in the voluntary questionnaire between 10/11/2017 and 02/02/2018. 118 patients were recruited from general practice surgeries and 108 from the colposcopy department. Women were asked about their smear knowledge, self-perceived risks factors, prior experiences and reasons for non-attendance. Demographic data was also collected. Results: Approximately a third of women did not engage in smear testing services. This was consistent across primary and secondary care groups. Over 90% were aware of the role of the screening process in relation to cervical cancer; however, over two thirds believed the smear was also a tool to screen for other pathologies. The most commonly cited reasons for non-attendance were negative emotions or previous experiences. Inconvenient appointment times were also commonly described. In a comparison of attenders versus non-attenders previous negative experiences (p < 0.01) and number of identified risk factors (p = 0.02) were statistically significant with non-attenders describing more prior negative smears and identifying more risk factors. Smear knowledge, risk perception and perceived importance of screening were not significant. Negative previous experiences were described in relation to poor bedside manner, pain, embarrassment and staff competency. Conclusions: In contrary to the literature, our white Caucasian cohort experienced significant barriers to accessing smear services. Women’s prior negative experiences are overriding their perceived importance to attend the screening programme; therefore, efforts need to focus on improving clinical experiences through auditing tools, training and providing a supportive appointment setting. Positive changes can also be expected by improving appointment availabilities with extended hours and self-booking systems.

Keywords: barriers, cervical, Papanicolaou, screening, smear

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Authors: Temitayo Abayomi Ewemoje, Oluwamayowa Oluwafemi Oluwaniyi

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Agriculture and food processing, industry are among the largest industrial sectors that uses large amount of energy. Thus, a larger amount of gases from their fuel combustion technologies is being released into the environment. The choice of input energy supply not only directly having affects the environment, but also poses a threat to human health. The study was therefore designed to assess each unit production processes in order to identify hotspots using life cycle assessments (LCA) approach in South-western Nigeria. Data such as machine power rating, operation duration, inputs and outputs of shea butter materials for unit processes obtained at site were used to modelled Life Cycle Impact Analysis on GaBi6 (Holistic Balancing) software. Four scenarios were drawn for the impact assessments. Material sourcing from Kaiama, Scenarios 1, 3 and Minna Scenarios 2, 4 but different heat supply sources (Liquefied Petroleum Gas ‘LPG’ Scenarios 1, 2 and 10.8 kW Diesel Heater, scenarios 3, 4). Modelling of shea butter production on GaBi6 was for 1kg functional unit of shea butter produced and the Tool for the Reduction and Assessment of Chemical and other Environmental Impacts (TRACI) midpoint assessment was tool used to was analyse the life cycle inventories of the four scenarios. Eight categories in all four Scenarios were observed out of which three impact categories; Global Warming Potential (GWP) (0.613, 0.751, 0.661, 0.799) kg CO2¬-Equiv., Acidification Potential (AP) (0.112, 0.132, 0.129, 0.149) kg H+ moles-Equiv., and Smog (0.044, 0.059, 0.049, 0.063) kg O3-Equiv., categories had the greater impacts on the environment in Scenarios 1-4 respectively. Impacts from transportation activities was also seen to contribute more to these environmental impact categories due to large volume of petrol combusted leading to releases of gases such as CO2, CH4, N2O, SO2, and NOx into the environment during the transportation of raw shea kernel purchased. The ratio of transportation distance from Minna and Kaiama to production site was approximately 3.5. Shea butter unit processes with greater impacts in all categories was the packaging, milling and with the churning processes in ascending order of magnitude was identified as hotspots that may require attention. From the 1kg shea butter functional unit, it was inferred that locating production site at the shortest travelling distance to raw material sourcing and combustion of LPG for heating would reduce all the impact categories assessed on the environment.

Keywords: GaBi6, Life cycle assessment, shea butter production, TRACI

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Authors: Sandra D. Prewitt

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Introduction—The purpose of the extant study was to explore the relationship between religiosity and suicidal ideation. Through this exploration, further knowledge was sought relevant to gaining a better understanding regarding the higher suicide rate continuing to be experienced by young adults. Endeavoring to discover why the suicide rate continues to increase for the subject population, depression and anxiety emerged as major contributory risk factors. Although religiosity has been shown to be related to the reduced risk of suicidal behavior, the curative value of religion relevant to suicide prevention and treatment has not been sufficiently recognized. Considering the enormity of the current suicide problem, pursuits relevant to discovering effective tools enabling impactful prevention and treatment strategies remain essential to reducing suicide deaths. Methodology—The subject study was conducted utilizing a systematic literature review (SLR) which required the researcher to perform searches of appropriate databases, toward the goal of acquiring advanced knowledge based upon existing studies relevant to the subject matter under consideration. Major Findings—Depression and anxiety have been identified as two potential pathways leading to increased suicidal behavior. On the contrary, religiosity emerged as an important protective factor associated with less depression and therefore, fewer instances of suicidal thoughts. The protective nature of religion has been shown to extend to young adults without regard to the presence of identified potential suicidal behavior pathways.

Keywords: anxiety, depression, religion, suicide

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Authors: Risheka Suthantirakumar, Eilish Pearson, Jacqueline Woodman

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Background: Previous research has found a variety of rates and reasons for choosing medically unindicated elective repeat cesarean section (ERCS). Understanding the frequency and reasoning of ERCS, especially when unwarranted, could help healthcare professionals better tailor their advice and service. Therefore, our study conducted meta-analyses and qualitative analyses to identify the reasons and rates worldwide for choosing this procedure over the trial of labor after cesarean (TOLAC), also referred to in published literature as vaginal birth after cesarean (VBAC). Methods: We conducted a systematic review of published literature available on PubMed, EMBASE, and science.gov and conducted a blinded peer review process to assess eligibility. Search terms were created in collaboration with experts in the field. An inclusion and exclusion criteria were established prior to reviewing the articles. Included studies were limited to those published in English due to author constraints, although no international boundaries were used in the search. No time limit for the search was used in order to portray changes over time. Results: Our qualitative analyses found five consistent themes across international studies, which were socioeconomic and cultural differences, previous cesarean experience, perceptions of risk with vaginal birth, patients’ perceptions of future benefits, and medical advice and information. Our meta-analyses found variable rates of ERCS across international borders and within national populations. The average rate across all studies was 44% (CI 95% 36-51). Discussion: The studies included in our qualitative analysis demonstrated similar repetitive themes, which give validity to the findings across the studies included. We consider the rate variation across and within national populations to be partially a result of differing inclusion and eligibility assessment between different studies and argue that a proforma be utilized for future research to be comparable.

Keywords: elective cesarean section, VBAC, TOLAC, maternal choice

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Authors: Rabeab Khunpukdee, Aranya Sukchoui, Nonluk Somgit, Chitima Bunnaul

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Endotracheal displacement is a major risk of life threatening among critically ill patients. Standard nursing protocol is needed to minimize this risk and to improve clinical outcomes. To evaluate the effectiveness of the endothacheal care nursing guideline. The incidence rates of endochacheal displacement, oxygen deficiency after extubation, re-intubation, and nurse’s satisfaction on the utilization of the endotracheal care nursing guideline. An evidence-based nursing practice framework was used to develop the endotracheal care nursing guideline. The guideline valid content was review by a 3 panel of experts. The index of item objective (IOC) of the guideline was 0.93. The guideline was implemented in 130 patients (guideline group) and 19 registered nurses at a medicine ward, Had Yai hospital, Thailand. Patient’s outcomes were evaluated by comparison with those 155 patients who received the routine nursing care (routine care group). Descriptive statistics, frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation and Mann Whitney U-test was analyzed using the computer program. All significantly and better outcomes were found in the guideline group compared to the routine care group. The guideline group has less incidence rates of endotracheal displacement (1.54 % vs 9.03 %, p < 0.05), and none of the guideline group had oxygen deficiency after extubation (0 % vs 83.33%) compared to the routine care group. All of the 2 patients in the guideline group, compared to 6 of 14 patients in the routine care group were re-intubation. The overall rate of re-intubation in the total group (n = 130 vs 155) was seen less in the guideline group than the routine care group (1.54 % vs 3.87). Overall, nurses satisfaction was at high-level (89.50%) on the utilization of the guideline.

Keywords: endotracheal care, nursing guideline, re-intubation, satisfaction

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Authors: Yu-Min Chang, Kuo-Sheng Tsai, Hung-Te Tsai, Chia-Hsin Li

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This paper presents the early-warning lights classification management system for industrial parks promoted by the Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration (EPA) since 2011, including the definition of each early-warning light, objectives, action program and accomplishments. All of the 151 industrial parks in Taiwan were classified into four early-warning lights, including red, orange, yellow and green, for carrying out respective pollution management according to the monitoring data of soil and groundwater quality, regulatory compliance, and regulatory listing of control site or remediation site. The Taiwan EPA set up a priority list for high potential polluted industrial parks and investigated their soil and groundwater qualities based on the results of the light classification and pollution potential assessment. In 2011-2013, there were 44 industrial parks selected and carried out different investigation, such as the early warning groundwater well networks establishment and pollution investigation/verification for the red and orange-light industrial parks and the environmental background survey for the yellow-light industrial parks. Among them, 22 industrial parks were newly or continuously confirmed that the concentrations of pollutants exceeded those in soil or groundwater pollution control standards. Thus, the further investigation, groundwater use restriction, listing of pollution control site or remediation site, and pollutant isolation measures were implemented by the local environmental protection and industry competent authorities; the early warning lights of those industrial parks were proposed to adjust up to orange or red-light. Up to the present, the preliminary positive effect of the soil and groundwater quality management system for industrial parks has been noticed in several aspects, such as environmental background information collection, early warning of pollution risk, pollution investigation and control, information integration and application, and inter-agency collaboration. Finally, the work and goal of self-initiated quality management of industrial parks will be carried out on the basis of the inter-agency collaboration by the classified lights system of early warning and management as well as the regular announcement of the status of each industrial park.

Keywords: industrial park, soil and groundwater quality management, early-warning lights classification, SOP for reporting and treatment of monitored abnormal events

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Authors: Diego Moya, Juan Paredes, Clay Aldas, Ramiro Tite, Prasad Kaparaju

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Globally, energy policy for geothermal development is addressed in different forms, depending on the economy, resources, country-development, environment aspects and technology access. Although some countries have established strong regulations and standards for geothermal exploration, exploitation and sustainable use at the policy level (government departments and institutions), others have discussed geothermal laws at legal levels (congress – a national legislative body of a country). Appropriate regulations are needed not only to meet local and international funding requirements but also to avoid speculation in the use of the geothermal resource. In this regards, this paper presents the results of a systematic, qualitative and critical literature review of geothermal energy policy worldwide addressing two scenarios: policy and legal levels. At first, literature is collected and classified from scientific and government sources regarding geothermal energy policy of the most advanced geothermal producing countries, including Iceland, New Zealand, Mexico, the USA, Central America, Italy, Japan, Philippines, Indonesia, Kenia, and Australia. This is followed by a systematic review of the literature aiming to know the best geothermal practices and what remains uncertain regarding geothermal policy implementation. This analysis is made considering the stages of geothermal production. Furthermore, a qualitative analysis is conducted comparing the findings across geothermal policies in the countries mentioned above. Then, a critical review aims to identify significant items in the field to be applied in countries with geothermal potential but with no or weak geothermal policies. Finally, patterns and relationships are detected, and conclusions are drawn.

Keywords: assessment, geothermal, energy policy, worldwide

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Authors: Torsten Mielitz, Dietmar Schulz, York C. Roth

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Market forecasts show a significant increase in the demand for aircraft within the next two decades and production rates will be adapted accordingly. Improvements and optimizations in the industrial system are becoming more important to cope with future challenges in manufacturing and assembly. Highest quality standards have to be met for aerospace parts, whereas cost effective production in industrial systems and methodologies are also a key driver. A look at other industries like e.g., automotive shows well established processes to streamline existing manufacturing systems. In this paper, the implementation of 'PULL' principles in an existing manufacturing process chain for a large scale composite part is presented. A nonlinear extrapolation based on 'Little's Law' showed a risk of a significant increase of parts needed in the process chain to meet future demand. A project has been set up to mitigate the risk whereas the methodology has been changed from a traditional milestone approach in the beginning towards an agile way of working in the end in order to facilitate immediate benefits in the shop-floor. Finally, delivery rates could be increased avoiding more semi-finished parts in the process chain (work in progress & inventory) by the successful implementation of the 'PULL' philosophy in the shop-floor between the work stations. Lessons learned during the running project as well as implementation and operations phases are discussed in order to share best practices.

Keywords: aerospace composite part manufacturing, PULL principles, shop-floor implementation, lessons learned

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Authors: Sharmin Sultana, Palash Chandra Banik, Shirin Jahan Mumu, Liaquat Ali

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Santals are one of the oldest indigenous groups of South Asia who, according to anthropological evidence, are thought to be the origins of the Bengali race. The aim of the study was to explore, according to our best knowledge for the first time, the prevalence and determinants of hypertension in this relatively isolated and marginalized indigenous group who still live mostly in a traditional style. Under a cross-sectional analytical design, the study was conducted on the adult (age≥18 years) Santals (n=389, M/F 184/205, age in years, 38±15.3) of a village located in a remote rural area of northern Bangladesh. Subjects were selected by purposive sampling, and data were collected by interviewer-administered pretested questionnaire. Blood pressure was measured by following the WHO guideline of JNC-7 has been used to classify the blood pressure. The prevalence of hypertension was 4.9% among the respondents. Females had a much higher prevalence (5.4%) of hypertension compared to males (4.3%). Among the risk indicators of hypertension, more than half (50.9%) of the study population took extra salt in their meals, whereas 10.5% of respondents used extra salt occasionally, which is an important risk factor for high blood pressure. High waist circumference was found in 19% of the study subjects in terms of central obesity. Older age group (p=0.003, OR=1.1, 95%CI-1.02-1.10), respondents who completed more than primary school (p=0.038, OR=7.1, CI-1.11, 44.6), overweight and obesity (p=0.004, OR=17.1, CI-2.5, 118.1), were the major determinant for hypertension as found from the binary logistic model. None of the respondents received any medication, neither they visit any doctor ever for their hypertension control. The prevalence of hypertension was found to be low but not ignorable. Pre-hypertension in the case of systolic blood pressure needs attention among Santal indigenous population.

Keywords: hypertension, indigenous group, Santals, Bangladesh

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Authors: Tanu Sharma, Bikramjit Singh Bajwa, Inderpreet Kaur

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Monitoring of groundwater in Tarn-Taran, Bathinda, Faridkot and Mansa districts of Punjab state, India is essential where this freshwater resource is being over-exploited causing quality deterioration, groundwater depletion and posing serious threats to residents. The present integrated study was done to appraise quality and suitability of groundwater for drinking/irrigation purposes, hydro-geochemical characteristics, source identification and associated health risks. In the present study, groundwater of various districts of Punjab state was found to be heavily contaminated with As followed by U, thus posing high cancerous risks to local residents via ingestion, along with minor contamination of Fe, Mn, Pb and F−. Most health concerns in the study region were due to the elevated concentrations of arsenic in groundwater with average values of 130 µg L-1, 176 µg L-1, 272 µg L-1 and 651 µg L-1 in Tarn-Taran, Bathinda, Faridkot and Mansa districts, respectively, which is quite high as compared to the safe limit as recommended by BIS i.e. 10 µg L-1. In Tarn-Taran, Bathinda, Faridkot and Mansa districts, average uranium contents were found to be 37 µg L-1, 88 µg L-1, 61 µg L-1 and 104 µg L-1, with 51 %, 74 %, 61 % and 71 % samples, respectively, being above the WHO limit of 30 µg L-1 in groundwater. Further, the quality indices showed that groundwater of study region is suited for irrigation but not appropriate for drinking purposes. Hydro-geochemical studies revealed that most of the collected groundwater samples belonged to Ca2+ - Mg2+ - HCO3- type showing dominance of MgCO3 type which indicates the presence of temporary hardness in groundwater. Rock-water reactions and reverse ion exchange were the predominant factors for controlling hydro-geochemistry in the study region. Dissolution of silicate minerals caused the dominance of Na+ ions in the aquifers of study region. Multivariate statistics revealed that along with geogenic sources, contribution of anthropogenic activities such as injudicious application of agrochemicals and domestic waste discharge was also very significant. The results obtained abolished the myth that uranium is only root cause for large number of cancer patients in study region as arsenic and mercury were also present in groundwater at levels that were of health concern to groundwater.

Keywords: uranium, trace elements, multivariate data analysis, risk assessment

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Authors: Nuno M. Pereira

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In the last thirty years, European cities have been addressing global climate change and its local impacts by implementing mitigation and adaptation strategies. Lisbon Downtown is no exception with 10 plans under implementation since 2010 with completion scheduled for 2030 valued 1 billion euros of public investment. However, the gap between mitigation and adaptation strategies is not yet sufficiently studied alongside with its nuances- vulnerability and risk mitigation, resilience and adaptation. In Lisbon Downtown, these plans are being implemented separately, therefore compromising the effectiveness of public investment. The research reviewed the common ground of mitigation and adaptation strategies of the theoretical framework and analyzed the current urban development actions in Lisbon Downtown in order to identify potential conflicts and synergies. The empirical fieldwork supported by a sounding board of experts has been developed during two years and the results suggest that the largest public investment in Lisbon on flooding mitigation will conflict with the new Cruise ship terminal and old Downton building stock, therefore increasing risk and vulnerability factors. The study concludes that the Lisbon Downtown blue infrastructure plan should be redesigned in some areas in a trans- disciplinary and holistic approach and that the current theoretical framework on climate change should focus more on mitigation and adaptation synergies articulating the gray, blue and green infrastructures, combining old knowledge tested by resilient communities and new knowledge emerging from the digital era.

Keywords: adaptation, climate change, conflict, Lisbon Downtown, mitigation, synergy

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Authors: Per Blomqvist

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The overall aim of this study is to highlight how the degree project-course in teacher education has developed over time at Swedish universities, above all regarding changes in the formative assessment practices in relation to student's opportunities to take part in writing processes that can develop both their independent critical thinking, subject knowledge, and academic writing skills. Theoretically, the study is based on deliberative and transformative perspectives of teaching academic writing in higher education. The deliberative perspective is motivated by the fact that it is the universities and their departments' responsibility to give the students opportunities to develop their academic writing skills, while there is little guidance on how this can be implemented. The transformative perspective is motivated by the fact that education needs to be adapted to the student's prior knowledge and developed in relation to the student group. Given the academisation of education and the new student groups, this is a necessity. The empirical data consists of video recordings of teacher groups' conversations at three Swedish universities. The conversations were conducted as so-called collective remembering interviews, a method to stimulate the participants' memory through social interaction, and focused on addressing issues on how the degree project-course in teacher education has changed over time. Topic analysis was used to analyze the conversations in order to identify common descriptions and expressions among the teachers. The result highlights great similarities in how the degree project-course has changed over time, both from a deliberative and a transformative perspective. The course is characterized by a “strong framing,” where the teachers have great control over the work through detailed instructions for the writing process and detailed templates for the text. This is justified by the fact that the education has been adapted based on the student teachers' lack of prior subject knowledge. The strong framing places high demands on continuous discussions between teachers about, for example, which tools the students have with them and which linguistic and textual tools are offered in the education. The teachers describe that such governance often leads to conflicts between teachers from different departments because reading and writing are always part of cultural contexts and are linked to different knowledge, traditions, and values. The problem that is made visible in this study raises questions about how students' opportunities to develop independence and make critical judgments in academic writing are affected if the writing becomes too controlled and if passing students becomes the main goal of education.

Keywords: formative assessment, academic writing, degree project, higher education, deliberative perspective, transformative perspective

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Authors: Muhammad Tahir, Mushtaq Muhammad

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Capital structure is one of the key decisions taken by the financial managers. This study aims to investigate the factors influencing capital structure decision in Oil and Gas industry of Pakistan using secondary data from published annual reports of listed Oil and Gas Companies of Pakistan. This study covers the time-period from 2008-2014. Capital structure can be affected by profitability, firm size, growth opportunities, dividend payout, liquidity, business risk, and ownership structure. Panel data technique with Ordinary least square (OLS) regression model has been used to find the impact of set of explanatory variables on the capital structure using the Stata. OLS regression results suggest that dividend payout, firm size and government ownership have the most significant impact on financial leverage. Dividend payout and government ownership are found to have significant negative association with financial leverage however firm size indicated positive relationship with financial leverage. Other variables having significant link with financial leverage includes growth opportunities, liquidity and business risk. Results reveal significant positive association between growth opportunities and financial leverage whereas liquidity and business risk are negatively correlated with financial leverage. Profitability and managerial ownership exhibited insignificant relationship with financial leverage. This study contributes to existing Managerial Finance literature with certain managerial implications. Academically, this research study describes the factors affecting capital structure decision of Oil and Gas Companies in Pakistan and adds latest empirical evidence to existing financial literature in Pakistan. Researchers have studies capital structure in Pakistan in general and industry at specific, nevertheless still there is limited literature on this issue. This study will be an attempt to fill this gap in the academic literature. This study has practical implication on both firm level and individual investor/ lenders level. Results of this study can be useful for investors/ lenders in making investment and lending decisions. Further, results of this study can be useful for financial managers to frame optimal capital structure keeping in consideration the factors that can affect capital structure decision as revealed by this study. These results will help financial managers to decide whether to issue stock or issue debt for future investment projects.

Keywords: capital structure, multicollinearity, ordinary least square (OLS), panel data

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