Search results for: forward modeling

Authors: Rommila Chandra, Harshika Choudhary

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The value of integrated, participatory, and community based sustainable development strategies is eminent, but in practice, it still remains fragmentary and often leads to short-lived results. Despite the global presence of climate change, its impacts are felt differently by different communities based on their vulnerability. The developing countries have the low adaptive capacity and high dependence on environmental variables, making them highly susceptible to outmigration and poverty. We need to understand how to enable these approaches, taking into account the various governmental and non-governmental stakeholders functioning at different levels, to deliver long-term socio-economic and environmental well-being of local communities. The research assessed the financial and natural vulnerability of Himalayan networks, focusing on their potential to adapt to various changes, through accessing their perceived reactions and local knowledge. The evaluation was conducted by testing indices for vulnerability, with a major focus on indicators for adaptive capacity. Data for the analysis were collected from the villages around Govind National Park and Wildlife Sanctuary, located in the Indian Himalayan Region. The villages were stratified on the basis of connectivity via road, thus giving two kinds of human settlements connected and isolated. The study focused on understanding the complex relationship between outmigration and the socio-cultural sentiments of local people to not abandon their land, assessing their adaptive capacity for livelihood opportunities, and exploring their contribution that integrated participatory methodologies can play in delivering sustainable development. The result showed that the villages having better road connectivity, access to market, and basic amenities like health and education have a better understanding about the climatic shift, natural hazards, and a higher adaptive capacity for income generation in comparison to the isolated settlements in the hills. The participatory approach towards environmental conservation and sustainable use of natural resources were seen more towards the far-flung villages. The study helped to reduce the gap between local understanding and government policies by highlighting the ongoing adaptive practices and suggesting precautionary strategies for the community studied based on their local conditions, which differ on the basis of connectivity and state of development. Adaptive capacity in this study has been taken as the externally driven potential of different parameters, leading to a decrease in outmigration and upliftment of the human environment that could lead to sustainable livelihood development in the rural areas of Himalayas.

Keywords: adaptive capacity, Indian Himalayan region, participatory, sustainable livelihood development

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Authors: Md Abdullah Al Faruque, Ram Balachandar

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Sudden change of bed condition is frequent in open channel flow. Change of bed condition affects the turbulence characteristics in both streamwise and wall-normal direction. Understanding the turbulence intensity in open channel flow is of vital importance to the modeling of sediment transport and resuspension, bed formation, entrainment, and the exchange of energy and momentum. A comprehensive study was carried out to understand the extent of the effect of Reynolds number and bed roughness on different turbulence characteristics in an open channel flow. Four different bed conditions (impervious smooth bed, impervious continuous rough bed, pervious rough sand bed, and impervious distributed roughness) and two different Reynolds numbers were adopted for this cause. The effect of bed roughness on different turbulence characteristics is seen to be prevalent for most of the flow depth. Effect of Reynolds number on different turbulence characteristics is also evident for flow over different bed, but the extent varies on bed condition. Although the same sand grain is used to create the different rough bed conditions, the difference in turbulence characteristics is an indication that specific geometry of the roughness has an influence on turbulence characteristics. Roughness increases the contribution of the extreme turbulent events which produces very large instantaneous Reynolds shear stress and can potentially influence the sediment transport, resuspension of pollutant from bed and alter the nutrient composition, which eventually affect the sustainability of benthic organisms.

Keywords: open channel flow, Reynolds Number, roughness, turbulence

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Authors: Carmen Cantuarias-Villessuzanne, Jeffrey Blain, Radmila Pineau

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Our research project aims at analyzing the sensitiveness of French households to urban biodiversity and urban ecosystem services (UES). Opinion surveys show that the French population is sensitive to biodiversity and ecosystem services loss, but the value given to these issues within urban fabric and real estate market lacks evidence. Using GIS data and economic evaluation, by hedonic price methods, weassess the isolated contribution of the explanatory variables of biodiversityand UES on the price of residential real estate. We analyze the variation of the valuefor three urban ecosystem services - flood control, proximity to green spaces, and refreshment - on the price of real estate whena property changes ownership. Our modeling and mapping focus on the price at theIRIS scale (statistical information unit) from 2014 to 2019. The main variables are internal characteristics of housing (area, kind of housing, heating), external characteristics(accessibility and infrastructure, economic, social, and physical environmentsuch as air pollution, noise), and biodiversity indicators and urban ecosystemservices for the Ile-de-France region. Moreover, we compare environmental values on the enhancement of greenspaces and their impact on residential choices. These studies are very useful for real estate developers because they enable them to promote green spaces, and municipalities to become more attractive.

Keywords: urban ecosystem services, sustainable real estate, urban biodiversity perception, hedonic price, environmental values

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Authors: Martin Pellon Consunji

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Due to the rise in popularity of Bitcoin and other crypto assets as a store of wealth and speculative investment, there is an ever-growing demand for automated trading tools, such as bots, in order to gain an advantage over the market. Traditionally, trading in the stock market was done by professionals with years of training who understood patterns and exploited market opportunities in order to gain a profit. However, nowadays a larger portion of market participants are at minimum aided by market-data processing bots, which can generally generate more stable signals than the average human trader. The rise in trading bot usage can be accredited to the inherent advantages that bots have over humans in terms of processing large amounts of data, lack of emotions of fear or greed, and predicting market prices using past data and artificial intelligence, hence a growing number of approaches have been brought forward to tackle this task. However, the general limitation of these approaches can still be broken down to the fact that limited historical data doesn’t always determine the future, and that a lot of market participants are still human emotion-driven traders. Moreover, developing markets such as those of the cryptocurrency space have even less historical data to interpret than most other well-established markets. Due to this, some human traders have gone back to the tried-and-tested traditional technical analysis tools for exploiting market patterns and simplifying the broader spectrum of data that is involved in making market predictions. This paper proposes a method which uses neuro evolution techniques on both sentimental data and, the more traditionally human-consumed, technical analysis data in order to gain a more accurate forecast of future market behavior and account for the way both automated bots and human traders affect the market prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. This study’s approach uses evolutionary algorithms to automatically develop increasingly improved populations of bots which, by using the latest inflows of market analysis and sentimental data, evolve to efficiently predict future market price movements. The effectiveness of the approach is validated by testing the system in a simulated historical trading scenario, a real Bitcoin market live trading scenario, and testing its robustness in other cryptocurrency and stock market scenarios. Experimental results during a 30-day period show that this method outperformed the buy and hold strategy by over 260% in terms of net profits, even when taking into consideration standard trading fees.

Keywords: neuro-evolution, Bitcoin, trading bots, artificial neural networks, technical analysis, evolutionary algorithms

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Authors: Shyamani Hettiarachchi, Gopi Kitnasamy

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Background: The potentially high level of physical need and dependency experienced by children with cerebral palsy could affect the quality of life (QOL) of the child, the caregiver and his/her family. Poor QOL in children with cerebral palsy is associated with the parent-child relationship, limited opportunities for social participation, limited access to healthcare services, psychological well-being and the child's physical functioning. Given that children experiencing disabilities have little access to remedial support with an inequitable service across districts in Sri Lanka, and given the impact of culture and societal stigma, there may be differing viewpoints across respondents. Objectives: The aim of this study was to evaluate the psychometric properties of the Tamil version of the Cerebral Palsy Quality of Life for Children (CPQOL-Child) Questionnaire. Design: An instrument development and validation study. Methods: Forward and backward translations of the CPQOL-Child were undertaken by a team comprised of a physiotherapist, speech and language therapist and two linguists for the primary caregiver form and the child self-report form. As part of a pilot phase, the Tamil version of the CPQOL was completed by 45 primary caregivers with children with cerebral palsy and 15 children with cerebral palsy (GMFCS level 3-4). In addition, the primary caregivers commented on the process of filling in the questionnaire. The psychometric properties of test-retest reliability, internal consistency and construct validity were undertaken. Results: The test-retest reliability and internal consistency were high. A significant association (p < 0.001) was found between limited motor skills and poor QOL. The Cronbach's alpha for the whole questionnaire was at 0.95.Similarities and divergences were found between the two groups of respondents. The child respondents identified limited motor skills as associated with physical well-being and autonomy. Akin to this, the primary caregivers associated the severity of motor function with limitations of physical well-being and autonomy. The trend observed was that QOL was not related to the level of impairment but connected to environmental factors by the child respondents. In addition to this, the main concern among primary caregivers about the child's future and on the child's lack of independence was not fully captured by the QOL questionnaire employed. Conclusions: Although the initial results of the CPQOL questionnaire show high test-retest reliability and internal consistency of the instrument, it does not fully reflect the socio-cultural realities and primary concerns of the caregivers. The current findings highlight the need to take child and caregiver perceptions of QOL into account in clinical practice and research. It strongly indicates the need for culture-specific measures of QOL.

Keywords: cerebral palsy, CPQOL, culture, quality of life

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Authors: Tania Bose, Minto Rattan, Neeraj Chamoli

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In this paper, an attempt has been made to study the effect of thermal gradation on the steady-state creep behavior of rotating isotropic disc made of functionally graded material using threshold stress based Sherby’s creep law. The composite discs made of aluminum matrix reinforced with silicon carbide particulate have been taken for analysis. The stress and strain rate distributions have been calculated for the discs rotating at elevated temperatures having thermal gradation. The material parameters of creep vary radially and have been estimated by regression fit of the available experimental data. Investigations for discs made up of linearly increasing particle content operating under linearly decreasing temperature from inner to outer radii have been done using von Mises’ yield criterion. The results are displayed and compared graphically in designer friendly format for the above said disc profile with the disc made of particle reinforced composite operating under uniform temperature profile. It is observed that radial and tangential stresses show minor variation and the strain rates vary significantly in the presence of thermal gradation as compared to disc having uniform temperature.

Keywords: creep, isotropic, steady-state, thermal gradation

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Authors: Ayman Abd-Elhamed, Sayed Mahmoud

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The present research work investigates the seismic response of reinforced concrete (RC) frame building considering the effect of modeling masonry infill (MI) walls. The seismic behavior of a residential 6-storey RC frame building, considering and ignoring the effect of masonry, is numerically investigated using response spectrum (RS) analysis. The considered herein building is designed as a moment resisting frame (MRF) system following the Egyptian code (EC) requirements. Two developed models in terms of bare frame and infill walls frame are used in the study. Equivalent diagonal strut methodology is used to represent the behavior of infill walls, whilst the well-known software package ETABS is used for implementing all frame models and performing the analysis. The results of the numerical simulations such as base shear, displacements, and internal forces for the bare frame as well as the infill wall frame are presented in a comparative way. The results of the study indicate that the interaction between infill walls and frames significantly change the responses of buildings during earthquakes compared to the results of bare frame building model. Specifically, the seismic analysis of RC bare frame structure leads to underestimation of base shear and consequently damage or even collapse of buildings may occur under strong shaking. On the other hand, considering infill walls significantly decrease the peak floor displacements and drifts in both X and Y-directions.

Keywords: masonry infill, bare frame, response spectrum, seismic response

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Authors: Angelina Chiglintseva, Vladislav Shagapov

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We know from the geological data that quite sufficient gas reserves are concentrated in hydrates that occur on the Earth and on the ocean floor. Therefore, the development of these sources of energy and the storage of large reserves of gas hydrates is an acute global problem. An advanced technology for utilizing gas is to store it in a gas-hydrate state. Under natural conditions, storage facilities can be established, e.g., in underground reservoirs, where quite large volumes of gas can be conserved compared with reservoirs of pure gas. An analysis of the available experimental data of the kinetics and the mechanism of the gas-hydrate formation process shows the self-conservation effect that allows gas to be stored at negative temperatures and low values of pressures of up to several atmospheres. A theoretical model has been constructed for the gas-hydrate reservoir that represents a unique natural chemical reactor, and the principal possibility of the full extraction of gas from a hydrate due to the thermal reserves of the reservoirs themselves and the surrounding rocks has been analyzed. The influence exerted on the evolution of a gas hydrate reservoir by the reservoir thicknesses and the parameters that determine its initial state (a temperature, pressure, hydrate saturation) has been studied. It has been established that the shortest time of exploitation required by the reservoirs with a thickness of a few meters for the total hydrate decomposition is recorded in the cyclic regime when gas extraction alternated with the subsequent conservation of the gas hydrate deposit. The study was performed by a grant from the Russian Science Foundation (project No.15-11-20022).

Keywords: conservation, equilibrium state, gas hydrate reservoir, rocks

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Authors: Anjula Negi, D. T. V. Raghu Ramaswamy, Rajneesh Sareen

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Road infrastructure is emphatically one of the top most critical infrastructure to the Indian economy. Road network in the country of around 3.3 million km is the second largest in the world. Nationwide statistics released by Ministry of Road, Transport and Highways reveal that every minute an accident happens and one death every 3.7 minutes. This reported scale in terms of safety is a matter of grave concern, and economically represents a national loss of 3% to the GDP. Union Budget 2016-17 has allocated USD 12 billion annually for development and strengthening of roads, an increase of 56% from last year. Thus, highlighting the importance of roads as critical infrastructure. National highway alone represent only 1.7% of the total road linkages, however, carry over 40% of traffic. Further, trends analysed from 2002 -2011 on national highways, indicate that in less than a decade, a 22 % increase in accidents have been reported, but, 68% increase in death fatalities. Paramount inference is that accident severity has increased with time. Over these years many measures to increase road safety, lessening damage to physical assets, reducing vulnerabilities leading to a build-up for resilient road infrastructure have been taken. In the context of national highway development program, policy makers proposed implementation of around 20 % of such road length on PPP mode. These roads were taken up on high-density traffic considerations and for qualitative implementation. In order to understand resilience impacts and safety parameters, enshrined in various PPP concession agreements executed with the private sector partners, such highway specific projects would be appraised. This research paper would attempt to assess such safety measures taken and the possible reasons behind an increase in accident severity through these PPP case study projects. Delving further on safety features to understand policy measures adopted in these cases and an introspection on reasons of severity, whether an outcome of increased speeds, faulty road design and geometrics, driver negligence, or due to lack of discipline in following lane traffic with increased speed. Assessment exercise would study these aspects hitherto to PPP and post PPP project structures, based on literature review and opinion surveys with sectoral experts. On the way forward, it is understood that the Ministry of Road, Transport and Highway’s estimate for strengthening the national highway network is USD 77 billion within next five years. The outcome of this paper would provide an understanding of resilience measures adopted, possible options for accessible and safe road network and its expansion to policy makers for possible policy initiatives and funding allocation in securing critical infrastructure.

Keywords: national highways, policy, PPP, safety

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Authors: Asmae Tafraouti, Yasmina Layouni, Pascal Kleimann

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The growing market for Microsystems (MST) and Micro-Electromechanical Systems (MEMS) is driving the research for alternative manufacturing techniques to microelectronics-based technologies, which are generally expensive and time-consuming. Hot-embossing and micro-injection modeling of thermoplastics appear to be industrially viable processes. However, both require the use of master models, usually made in hard materials such as steel. These master models cannot be fabricated using standard microelectronics processes. Thus, other micromachining processes are used, such as laser machining or micro-electrical discharge machining (µEDM). In this work, µEDM has been used. The principle of µEDM is based on the use of a thin cylindrical micro-tool that erodes the workpiece surface. The two electrodes are immersed in a dielectric with a distance of a few micrometers (gap). When an electrical voltage is applied between the two electrodes, electrical discharges are generated, which cause material machining. In order to produce master models with high resolution and smooth surfaces, it is necessary to well control the discharge mechanism. However, several problems are encountered, such as a random electrical discharge process, the fluctuation of the discharge energy, the electrodes' polarity inversion, and the wear of the micro-tool. The effect of different parameters, such as the applied voltage, the working capacitor, the micro-tool diameter, and the initial gap, has been studied. This analysis helps to improve the machining performances, such as the workpiece surface condition and the lateral crater's gap.

Keywords: craters, electrical discharges, micro-electrical discharge machining, microsystems

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Authors: A. Armin, R. Fotouhi, W. Szyszkowski

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This paper is part of a study to develop robots for farming. As such power requirement to operate equipment attach to such robots become an important factor. Soil-tool interaction play major role in power consumption, thus predicting accurately the forces which act on the blade during the farming is prime importance for optimal designing of farm equipment. In this paper a finite element investigation for tillage tools and soil interaction is described by using an inelastic constitutive material law for agriculture application. A 3-dimentional (3D) nonlinear finite element analysis (FEA) is developed to examine behavior of a blade with different rake angles moving in a block of soil, and to estimate the blade force. The soil model considered is an elastic-plastic with non-associated Drucker-Prager material model. Special use of contact elements are employed to consider connection between soil-blade and soil-soil surfaces. The FEA results are compared with experiment ones, which show good agreement in accurately predicting draft forces developed on the blade when it moves through the soil. Also, a very good correlation was obtained between FEA results and analytical results from classical soil mechanics theories for straight blades. These comparisons verified the FEA model developed. For analyzing complicated soil-tool interactions and for optimum design of blades, this method will be useful.

Keywords: finite element analysis, soil-blade contact modeling, blade force, mechanical engineering

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Authors: M. Etezadi, A. Fahimifar

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In many geotechnical designs in rocks and rock masses, tensile strength of rock and rock mass is needed. The difficulties associated with performing a direct uniaxial tensile test on a rock specimen have led to a number of indirect methods for assessing the tensile strength that in the meantime the Brazilian test is more popular. Brazilian test is widely applied in rock engineering because specimens are easy to prepare, the test is easy to conduct and uniaxial compression test machines are quite common. This study compares experimental results of direct and Brazilian tensile tests carried out on two rock types and three concrete types using 39 cylindrical and 28 disc specimens. The tests are performed using Servo-Control device. The relationship between direct and indirect tensile strength of specimens is extracted using linear regression. In the following, tensile strength of direct and indirect test is evaluated using finite element analysis. The results are analyzed and effective factors on results are studied. According to the experimental results Brazilian test is shown higher tensile strength than direct test. Because of decreasing the contact surface of grains and increasing the uniformity in concrete specimens with fine aggregate (largest grain size= 6mm), higher tensile strength in direct test is shown. The experimental and numerical results of tensile strength are compared and empirical relationship witch is obtained from experimental tests is validated.

Keywords: tensile strength, brittle materials, direct and indirect tensile test, numerical modeling

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Authors: Doaa Alhaboby

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Behavior change is a complex process that often requires ongoing support and guidance. Telecoaching programs have emerged as effective tools in facilitating behavior change by providing personalized support remotely. This abstract explores the lessons learned from a randomized controlled trial (RCT) evaluation of a telecoaching program focused on behavior change for Diabetics and discusses strategies for implementing these lessons to overcome the challenge of making physical activity a habit. The telecoaching program involved participants engaging in regular coaching sessions delivered via phone calls. These sessions aimed to address various aspects of behavior change, including goal setting, self-monitoring, problem-solving, and social support. Over the course of the program, participants received personalized guidance tailored to their unique needs and preferences. One of the key lessons learned from the RCT was the importance of engagement, readiness to change and the use of technology. Participants who set specific, measurable, attainable, relevant, and time-bound (SMART) goals were more likely to make sustained progress toward behavior change. Additionally, regular self-monitoring of behavior and progress was found to be instrumental in promoting accountability and motivation. Moving forward, implementing the lessons learned from the RCT can help individuals overcome the hardest part of behavior change: making physical activity a habit. One strategy is to prioritize consistency and establish a regular routine for physical activity. This may involve scheduling workouts at the same time each day or week and treating them as non-negotiable appointments. Additionally, integrating physical activity into daily life routines and taking into consideration the main challenges that can stop the process of integrating physical activity routines into the daily schedule can help make it more habitual. Furthermore, leveraging technology and digital tools can enhance adherence to physical activity goals. Mobile apps, wearable activity trackers, and online fitness communities can provide ongoing support, motivation, and accountability. These tools can also facilitate self-monitoring of behavior and progress, allowing individuals to track their activity levels and adjust their goals as needed. In conclusion, telecoaching programs offer valuable insights into behavior change and provide strategies for overcoming challenges, such as making physical activity a habit. By applying the lessons learned from these programs and incorporating them into daily life, individuals can cultivate sustainable habits that support their long-term health and well-being.

Keywords: lifestyle, behavior change, physical activity, chronic conditions

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Authors: Lorena Blasco-Arcas, Francesca Pucciarelli

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Business contexts have become globalised and digitalised, which requires that managers develop a strong sense of cross-cultural intelligence while working in geographically distant teams by means of digital technologies. How to better equip future managers on these kinds of skills has been put forward as a critical issue in Business Schools. In pursuing these goals, higher education is shifting from a passive lecture approach, to more active and experiential learning approaches that are more suitable to learn skills. For example, through the use of case studies, proposing plausible business problem to be solved by students (or teams of students), these institutions have focused for long in fostering learning by doing. Though, case studies are no longer enough as a tool to promote active teamwork and experiential learning. Moreover, digital advancements applied to educational settings have enabled augmented classrooms, expanding the learning experience beyond the class, which increase students’ engagement and experiential learning. Different authors have highlighted the benefits of digital engagement in order to achieve a deeper and longer-lasting learning and comprehension of core marketing concepts. Clickers, computer-based simulations and business games have become fairly popular between instructors, but still are limited by the fact that are fictional experiences. Further exploration of real digital platforms to implement real, live projects in the classroom seem relevant for marketing and business education. Building on this, this paper describes the development of an experiential learning activity in class, in which students developed a communication campaign in teams using the BuzzFeed platform, and subsequently implementing the campaign by using other social media platforms (e.g. Facebook, Instagram, Twitter…). The article details the procedure of using the project for a marketing module in a Bachelor program with students located in France, Italy and Spain campuses working on multi-campus groups. Further, this paper describes the project outcomes in terms of students’ engagement and analytics (i.e. visits achieved). the project included a survey in order to analyze and identify main aspects related to how the learning experience is influenced by the cultural competence developed through working in geographically distant and culturally diverse teamwork. Finally, some recommendations to use project-based social media tools while working with virtual teamwork in the classroom are provided.

Keywords: cultural competences, experiential learning, social media, teamwork, virtual group work

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Authors: Surendra Choudhary, Sapan Tiwari

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The driver has two fundamental duties i) controlling the position of the vehicle along the longitudinal and lateral direction of movement ii) roadway width. Both of these duties are interdependent and are concurrently referred to as two-dimensional driver behavior. One of the main problems facing driver behavior modeling is to identify the parameters for describing the exemplary driving conduct and car maneuver under distinct traffic circumstances. Still, to date, there is no well-accepted theory that can comprehensively model the 2-D driver conduct (longitudinal and lateral). The primary objective of this research is to explore the vehicle's lateral longitudinal behavior in the heterogeneous condition of traffic on horizontal curves as well as the effect of road geometry on dynamic traffic parameters, i.e., car velocity and lateral placement. In this research, with their interrelationship, a thorough assessment of dynamic car parameters, i.e., speed, lateral acceleration, and turn radius. Also, horizontal curve road parameters, i.e., curvature radius, pavement friction, are performed. The dynamic parameters of the various types of car drivers are gathered using a VBOX GPS-based tool with high precision. The connection between dynamic car parameters and curve geometry is created after the removal of noise from the GPS trajectories. The major findings of the research are that car maneuvers with higher than the design limits of speed, acceleration, and lateral deviation on the studied curves of the highway. It can become lethal if the weather changes from dry to wet.

Keywords: geometry, maneuverability, terrain, trajectory, VBOX

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Authors: Bassim Shaheen Bachy, Jörg Franke

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In this study, a three dimensional numerical heat transfer model has been used to simulate the laser structuring of polymer substrate material in the Three-Dimensional Molded Interconnect Device (3D MID) which is used in the advanced multi-functional applications. A finite element method (FEM) transient thermal analysis is performed using APDL (ANSYS Parametric Design Language) provided by ANSYS. In this model, the effect of surface heat source was modeled with Gaussian distribution, also the effect of the mixed boundary conditions which consist of convection and radiation heat transfers have been considered in this analysis. The model provides a full description of the temperature distribution, as well as calculates the depth and the width of the groove upon material removal at different set of laser parameters such as laser power and laser speed. This study also includes the experimental procedure to study the effect of laser parameters on the depth and width of the removal groove metal as verification to the modeled results. Good agreement between the experimental and the model results is achieved for a wide range of laser powers. It is found that the quality of the laser structure process is affected by the laser scan speed and laser power. For a high laser structured quality, it is suggested to use laser with high speed and moderate to high laser power.

Keywords: laser structuring, simulation, finite element analysis, thermal modeling

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Authors: Chokri Slim

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The relative failure of simultaneous equation models in the seventies has led researchers to turn to other approaches that take into account the dynamics of economic and financial systems. In this paper, we use an approach based on vector autoregressive model that is widely used in recent years. Their popularity is due to their flexible nature and ease of use to produce models with useful descriptive characteristics. It is also easy to use them to test economic hypotheses. The standard econometric techniques assume that the series studied are stable over time (stationary hypothesis). Most economic series do not verify this hypothesis, which assumes, when one wishes to study the relationships that bind them to implement specific techniques. This is cointegration which characterizes non-stationary series (integrated) with a linear combination is stationary, will also be presented in this paper. Since the work of Johansen, this approach is generally presented as part of a multivariate analysis and to specify long-term stable relationships while at the same time analyzing the short-term dynamics of the variables considered. In the empirical part, we have applied these concepts to study the dynamics of of the exchange rate in Tunisia, which is one of the most important economic policy of a country open to the outside. According to the results of the empirical study by the cointegration method, there is a cointegration relationship between the exchange rate and its determinants. This relationship shows that the variables have a significant influence in determining the exchange rate in Tunisia.

Keywords: stationarity, cointegration, dynamic models, causality, VECM models

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Authors: Pedro G. Morouço

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One utmost challenge in Tissue Engineering is the production of 3D constructs capable of mimicking the functional hierarchy of native tissues. This is well stated for osteochondral tissue due to the complex mechanical functional unit based on the junction of articular cartilage and bone. Thus, the aim of the present study was to develop a new additive manufacturing system coupling micro-extrusion with hydrogels printing. An integrated system was developed with 2 main features: (i) the printing of up to three distinct hydrogels; (ii) in coordination with the printing of a thermoplastic structural support. The hydrogel printing module was projected with a ‘revolver-like’ system, where the hydrogel selection was made by a rotating mechanism. The hydrogel deposition was then controlled by pressured air input. The use of specific components approved for medical use was incorporated in the material dispensing system (Nordson EDF Optimum® fluid dispensing system). The thermoplastic extrusion modulus enabled the control of required extrusion temperature through electric resistances in the polymer reservoir and the extrusion system. After testing and upgrades, a hydrogel modulus with 3 syringes (3cm3 capacity each), with a pressure range of 0-2.5bar, a rotational speed of 0-5rpm, and working with needles from 200-800µm was obtained. This modulus was successfully coupled to the extrusion system that presented a temperature up to 300˚C, a pressure range of 0-12bar, and working with nozzles from 200-500µm. The applied motor could provide a velocity range 0-2000mm/min. Although, there are distinct printing requirements for hydrogels and polymers, the novel system could develop hybrid scaffolds, combining the 2 moduli. The morphological analysis showed high reliability (n=5) between the theoretical and obtained filament and pore size (350µm and 300µm vs. 342±4µm and 302±3µm, p>0.05, respectively) of the polymer; and multi-material 3D constructs were successfully obtained. Human tissues present very distinct and complex structures regarding their mechanical properties, organization, composition and dimensions. For osteochondral regenerative medicine, a multiphasic scaffold is required as subchondral bone and overlying cartilage must regenerate at the same time. Thus, a scaffold with 3 layers (bone, intermediate and cartilage parts) can be a promising approach. The developed system may give a suitable solution to construct those hybrid scaffolds with enhanced properties. The present novel system is a step-forward regarding osteochondral tissue engineering due to its ability to generate layered mechanically stable implants through the double-printing of hydrogels with thermoplastics.

Keywords: 3D bioprinting, bone regeneration, cartilage regeneration, regenerative medicine, tissue engineering

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Authors: Olaf Visker, Arnout De Vries, Lambert Schomaker

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Predictive policing refers to the usage of analytical techniques to identify potential criminal activity. It has been widely implemented by various police departments. Being a relatively new area of research, there are, to the author’s knowledge, no absolute tried, and true methods and they still exhibit a variety of potential problems. One of those problems is closely related to the lack of understanding of how acting on these prediction influence crime itself. The goal of law enforcement is ultimately crime reduction. As such, a policy needs to be established that best facilitates this goal. This research aims to find such a policy by using adversarial agent-based modeling in combination with modern reinforcement learning techniques. It is presented here that a baseline model for both law enforcement and criminal agents and compare their performance to their respective reinforcement models. The experiments show that our smart law enforcement model is capable of reducing crime by making more deliberate choices regarding the locations of potential criminal activity. Furthermore, it is shown that the smart criminal model presents behavior consistent with popular crime theories and outperforms the baseline model in terms of crimes committed and time to capture. It does, however, still suffer from the difficulties of capturing long term rewards and learning how to handle multiple opposing goals.

Keywords: adversarial, agent based modelling, predictive policing, reinforcement learning

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Authors: Tran Duong Nguyen, Marwan Shagar, Qinghao Zeng, Aras Maqsoodi, Pardis Pishdad, Eunhwa Yang

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Construction supply chain management (CSCM) involves the collaboration of many disciplines and actors, which generates vast amounts of data. However, inefficient, fragmented, and non-standardized data storage often hinders this data exchange. The industry has adopted building information modeling (BIM) -a digital representation of a facility's physical and functional characteristics to improve collaboration, enhance transmission security, and provide a common data exchange platform. Still, the volume and complexity of data require tailored information categorization, aligning with stakeholders' preferences and demands. To address this, artificial intelligence (AI) can be integrated to handle this data’s magnitude and complexities. This research aims to develop an integrated and efficient approach for data exchange in CSCM by utilizing AI. The paper covers five main objectives: (1) Investigate existing framework and BIM adoption; (2) Identify challenges in data exchange; (3) Propose an integrated framework; (4) Enhance data transmission security; and (5) Develop data exchange in CSCM. The proposed framework demonstrates how integrating BIM and other technologies, such as cloud computing, blockchain, and AI applications, can significantly improve the efficiency and accuracy of data exchange in CSCM.

Keywords: construction supply chain management, BIM, data exchange, artificial intelligence

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Authors: Tytus Tulwin, Adam Majczak

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In aviation most important systems that impact the aircraft flight safety are duplicated. The ASz-62IR aircraft radial engine consists of two spark plugs powered by two separate magnetos. The relative difference in spark timing has an influence on the combustion process. The retardation of the second spark relative to the first spark was analyzed. The CFD simulation was developed as a multicycle transient model. Two independent spark sources imitate two flame fronts after an ignition period. It makes the combustion process shorter but only for certain range of second spark retardation. The model was validated by the in-cylinder pressure comparison. Combustion parameters were analyzed for different second spark retardation values. It was found that the most advantageous ignition timing in means of performance is simultaneous ignition. Nevertheless, for this engine the ignition time of the second spark plug is greatly retarded eliminating the advantageous performance influence. The reason behind this is maintaining high ignition certainty for all engine running conditions and for whole operating rpm range. In aviation the engine reliability is more important than its performance. Introducing electronic ignition system can yield from simultaneous ignition timing by increasing the engine performance and providing good reliability for all flight conditions. This work has been financed by the Polish National Centre for Research and Development, INNOLOT, under Grant Agreement No. INNOLOT/I/1/NCBR/2013.

Keywords: CFD, combustion, ignition, simulation, timing

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Authors: Selvan Bellan, Koji Matsubara, Nobuyuki Gokon, Tatsuya Kodama, Hyun Seok-Cho

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In concentrated solar thermal industry, fluidized-bed technology has been used to produce hydrogen by thermochemical two step water splitting cycles, and synthetic gas by gasification of coal coke. Recently, couple of fluidized bed reactors have been developed and tested at Niigata University, Japan, for two-step thermochemical water splitting cycles and coal coke gasification using Xe light, solar simulator. The hydrodynamic behavior of the gas-solid flow plays a vital role in the aforementioned fluidized bed reactors. Thus, in order to study the dynamics of dense gas-solid flow, a CFD-DEM model has been developed; in which the contact forces between the particles have been calculated by the spring-dashpot model, based on the soft-sphere method. Heat transfer and hydrodynamics of a solar thermochemical fluidized bed reactor filled with ceria particles have been studied numerically and experimentally for beam-down solar concentrating system. An experimental visualization of particles circulation pattern and mixing of two-tower fluidized bed system has been presented. Simulation results have been compared with experimental data to validate the CFD-DEM model. Results indicate that the model can predict the particle-fluid flow of the two-tower fluidized bed reactor. Using this model, the key operating parameters can be optimized.

Keywords: solar reactor, CFD-DEM modeling, fluidized bed, beam-down solar concentrating system

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Authors: Angeliki Gkiouzeli, Christine Rotonda, Elise Eby, Claire Touchet, Marie-Jo Brennstuhl, Cyril Tarquinio

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Resilience is a psychological concept of possible relevance to the development and maintenance of chronic pain (CP). It refers to the ability of individuals to maintain reasonably healthy levels of physical and psychological functioning when exposed to an isolated and potentially highly disruptive event. Extensive research in recent years has supported the importance of this concept in the CP literature. Increased levels of resilience were associated with lower levels of perceived pain intensity and better mental health outcomes in adults with persistent pain. The ongoing project seeks to include the concept of pain-specific resilience in the French literature in order to provide more appropriate measures for assessing and understanding the complexities of CP in the near future. To the best of our knowledge, there is currently no validated version of the pain-specific resilience measure, the Pain Resilience scale (PRS), for French-speaking populations. Therefore, the present work aims to address this gap, firstly by performing a linguistic and cultural translation of the scale into French and secondly by studying the internal validity and reliability of the PRS for French CP populations. The forward-translation-back translation methodology was used to achieve as perfect a cultural and linguistic translation as possible according to the recommendations of the COSMIN (Consensus-based Standards for the selection of health Measurement Instruments) group, and an online survey is currently conducted among a representative sample of the French population suffering from CP. To date, the survey has involved one hundred respondents, with a total target of around three hundred participants at its completion. We further seek to study the metric properties of the French version of the PRS, ''L’Echelle de Résilience à la Douleur spécifique pour les Douleurs Chroniques'' (ERD-DC), in French patients suffering from CP, assessing the level of pain resilience in the context of CP. Finally, we will explore the relationship between the level of pain resilience in the context of CP and other variables of interest commonly assessed in pain research and treatment (i.e., general resilience, self-efficacy, pain catastrophising, and quality of life). This study will provide an overview of the methodology used to address our research objectives. We will also present for the first time the main findings and further discuss the validity of the scale in the field of CP research and pain management. We hope that this tool will provide a better understanding of how CP-specific resilience processes can influence the development and maintenance of this disease. This could ultimately result in better treatment strategies specifically tailored to individual needs, thus leading to reduced healthcare costs and improved patient well-being.

Keywords: chronic pain, pain measure, pain resilience, questionnaire adaptation

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Authors: Elaheh Ghasempour

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India has always been an all-encompassing center of attention in the theological and cultural studies since it beholds a very diverse nation within its borders. Among the uncountable faiths and traditions of this massive land, this article shall negotiate Islam in a Hindu dominated society. Practicing Caste and the views on it are the most controversial topics in modern-day India. Some blame it on the teachings of Hinduism; some call it a colonial outcome; and yet many believe that it is, in fact, a social construct. Islam was the souvenir coming from the Arabian Peninsula into the Indian Subcontinent in the hands of Arab, Persian, and Turk religious missionaries and Sufi saints. The aim of bringing the faith to this region was to enlighten the people of East and the Far East with the ideas of peace, justice, brotherhood as well as a proper way of living. Due to many reasons, the concept of the Islamic Nation or ‘Ummah’ has been touched by the native teachings of Hinduism which negates and questions the actual Islamic principles and laws. The Islamic Nation in India has been parted to different classes and each class nowadays beholds one level of a hierarchy. The superiors do not hesitate to keep the inferiors oppressed as much as they can since their own high position in this hierarchy depends on such oppressions. Their rules and laws to keep the lower castes out of the political and economical scene found ways into the religious traditions so much that it has become hard to question it by the masses; the masses who are too uneducated to question their own heretical faith and traditions. But now that the world is rapidly evolving, the access to knowledge has evoked an awareness of many lower caste or ‘Dalit’ Muslims. They no longer wish to be oppressed for their ethnicity or rootless principles of the old generations to guarantee the survival of the higher caste Muslims or ‘Ashrafs’. In recent years, many have stood against the rules of the caste system. As the oppressed no longer wishes to be oppressed, they also show acts of violence against the rulers who destined them the life they currently have. Considering they are usually poor and uneducated, and they might do violent actions, this can threaten not only Indians but the whole world; especially because the ISIS can easily fund a troop of hungry men who are looking forward to revenge their masters and others for all the unjust discriminations. Therefore for the sake of social security and stopping the disrepute for followers of Islam, the entire Islamic nation must consider taking actions against practicing Caste, regardless of where they come from. Since the teachings of the Quran and the Sunnah of the Prophet (PBUH) invite all Muslims to practice equality and brotherhood in the Ummah, this article would find the practical ways to abolish the caste-system through the Islamic liturgical texts and traditions.

Keywords: Dalit Muslims, Islam in India, caste system, justice in Islam, violence

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Authors: Nadia Allouache

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Energy conservation is one of the major concerns in the modern high tech era due to the limited amount of energy resources and the increasing cost of energy. Predicting an efficient use of energy in thermal systems like heat exchangers can only be achieved if the second law of thermodynamics is accounted for. The performance of heat exchangers can be substantially improved by many passive heat transfer augmentation techniques. These letters permit to improve heat transfer rate and to increase exchange surface, but on the other side, they also increase the friction factor associated with the flow. This raises the question of how to employ these passive techniques in order to minimize the useful energy. The objective of this present study is to use a porous substrate attached to the walls as a passive enhancement technique in heat exchangers and to find the compromise between the hydrodynamic and thermal performances under turbulent flow conditions, by using a second law approach. A modified k- ε model is used to simulating the turbulent flow in the porous medium and the turbulent shear flow is accounted for in the entropy generation equation. A numerical modeling, based on the finite volume method is employed for discretizing the governing equations. Effects of several parameters are investigated such as the porous substrate properties and the flow conditions. Results show that under certain conditions of the porous layer thickness, its permeability, and its effective thermal conductivity the minimum rate of entropy production is obtained.

Keywords: second law approach, annular heat exchanger, turbulent flow, porous medium, modified model, numerical analysis

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Authors: K. R. Sultana, K. Pope, Y. S. Muzychka

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In recent years, the research of heat transfer or phase change phenomena of liquid water droplets experiences a growing interest in aircraft icing, power transmission line icing, marine icing and wind turbine icing applications. This growing interest speeding up the research from single to multiple droplet phenomena. Impingements of multiple droplets and the resulting solidification phenomena after impact on a very cold surface is computationally studied in this paper. The model used in the current study solves the flow equation, composed of energy balance and the volume fraction equations. The main aim of the study is to investigate the effects of several thermo-physical properties (density, thermal conductivity and specific heat) on droplets freezing. The outcome is examined by various important factors, for instance, liquid fraction, total freezing time, droplet temperature and total heat transfer rate in the interface region. The liquid fraction helps to understand the complete phase change phenomena during solidification. Temperature distribution and heat transfer rate help to demonstrate the overall thermal exchange behaviors between the droplets and substrate surface. Findings of this research provide an important technical achievement for ice modeling and prediction studies.

Keywords: droplets, CFD, thermos-physical properties, solidification

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Authors: Wardatutthoyyibah, Satyawan Pudyatmoko, Sena Adi Subrata, Muhammad Ali Imron

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The proboscis monkey is an endemic species to the island of Borneo with conservation status IUCN (The International Union for Conservation of Nature) of endangered. The population of the monkey has a specific habitat and sensitive to habitat disturbances. As a consequence of increasing rates of land-use change in the last four decades, its population was reported significantly decreased. We quantified the effect of land use change on the proboscis monkey’s habitat through the species distribution modeling (SDM) approach with Maxent Software. We collected presence data and environmental variables, i.e., land cover, topography, bioclimate, distance to the river, distance to the road, and distance to the anthropogenic disturbance to generate predictive distribution maps of the monkeys. We compared two prediction maps for 2000 and 2015 data to represent the current habitat of the monkey. We overlaid the monkey’s predictive distribution map with the existing protected areas to investigate whether the habitat of the monkey is protected under the protected areas networks. The results showed that almost 50% of the monkey’s habitat reduced as the effect of land use change. And only 9% of the current proboscis monkey’s habitat within protected areas. These results are important for the master plan of conservation of the endangered proboscis monkey and provide scientific guidance for the future development incorporating biodiversity issue.

Keywords: endemic species, land use change, maximum entropy, spatial distribution

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Authors: Ayesha Akbar

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Pakistan is moving from a security state to a welfare state despite several security challenges both internal and external. Human security signifies a varied approach in different regions depending upon the leadership and policy priorities. The link between human development and economic growth is not automatic. It has to be created consciously by forward-looking policies and strategies by national governments. There are seven components or categories of human security these include: Economic Security, Personal Security, Health Security, Environmental Security, Food Security, Community Security and Political Security. The increasing interest of the international community to clearly understand the dimensions of human security provided the grounds to Pakistani scholars as well to ponder on the issue and delineate lines of human security. A great deal of work has been either done or in process to evaluate human security indicators in Pakistan. Notwithstanding, after having been done a great deal of work the human security in Pakistan is not satisfactory. A range of deteriorating indicators of human development that lies under the domain of human security leaves certain inquiries to be answered. What are the dimensions of human security in Pakistan? And how are they being dealt from the perspective of policy and institution in terms of its operationalization in Pakistan? Is the human security discourse reflects evidence-based policy changes. The methodology is broadly based on qualitative methods that include interviews, content analysis of policy documents. Pakistan is among the most populous countries in the world and faces high vulnerability to climate change. Literacy rate has gone down with the surge of youth bulge to accommodate in the job market. Increasing population is creating food problems as the resources have not been able to compete with the raising demands of food and other social amenities of life. Majority of the people are facing acute poverty. Health outcomes are also not satisfactory with the high infant and maternal mortality rate. Pakistan is on the verge of facing water crisis as the water resources are depleting so fast with the high demand in agriculture and energy sector. Pakistan is striving hard to deal with the declining state of human security but the dilemma is lack of resources that hinders in meeting up with the emerging demands. The government requires to bring about more change with scaling-up economic growth avenues with enhancing the capacity of human resources. A modern performance drive culture with the integration of technology is required to deliver efficient and effective service delivery. On an already fast track process of reforms; e-governance and evidence based policy mechanism is being instilled in the government process for better governance and evidence based decisions.

Keywords: governance, human development index, human security, Pakistan, policy

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Authors: Ashish Jaiswal, Ashwin Ramesh Babu, Mohammad Zaki Zadeh, Fillia Makedon, Glenn Wylie

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Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is a neuroimaging technique that records neural activations in the brain by capturing the blood oxygen level in different regions based on the task performed by a subject. Given fMRI data, the problem of predicting the state of cognitive fatigue in a person has not been investigated to its full extent. This paper proposes tackling this issue as a multi-class classification problem by dividing the state of cognitive fatigue into six different levels, ranging from no-fatigue to extreme fatigue conditions. We built a spatio-temporal model that uses convolutional neural networks (CNN) for spatial feature extraction and a long short-term memory (LSTM) network for temporal modeling of 4D fMRI scans. We also applied a self-supervised method called MoCo (Momentum Contrast) to pre-train our model on a public dataset BOLD5000 and fine-tuned it on our labeled dataset to predict cognitive fatigue. Our novel dataset contains fMRI scans from Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) patients and healthy controls (HCs) while performing a series of N-back cognitive tasks. This method establishes a state-of-the-art technique to analyze cognitive fatigue from fMRI data and beats previous approaches to solve this problem.

Keywords: fMRI, brain imaging, deep learning, self-supervised learning, contrastive learning, cognitive fatigue

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Authors: Sherly Shelton, Zhaohui Lin

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In recent decades, the inter-annual variability of summer precipitation over the India and Sri Lanka has intensified significantly with an increased frequency of both abnormally dry and wet summers. Therefore prediction of the inter-annual variability of summer precipitation is crucial and urgent for water management and local agriculture scheduling. However, none of the hypotheses put forward so far could understand the relationship to monsoon variability and related factors that affect to the South West Monsoon (SWM) variability in Sri Lanka. This study focused to identify the spatial and temporal variability of SWM rainfall events from June to September (JJAS) over Sri Lanka and associated trend. The monthly rainfall records covering 1980-2013 over the Sri Lanka are used for 19 stations to investigate long-term trends in SWM rainfall over Sri Lanka. The linear trends of atmospheric variables are calculated to understand the drivers behind the changers described based on the observed precipitation, sea surface temperature and atmospheric reanalysis products data for 34 years (1980–2013). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was applied to understand the spatial and temporal behaviour of seasonal SWM rainfall variability and also investigate whether the trend pattern is the dominant mode that explains SWM rainfall variability. The spatial and stations based precipitation over the country showed statistically insignificant decreasing trends except few stations. The first two EOFs of seasonal (JJAS) mean of rainfall explained 52% and 23 % of the total variance and first PC showed positive loadings of the SWM rainfall for the whole landmass while strongest positive lording can be seen in western/ southwestern part of the Sri Lanka. There is a negative correlation (r ≤ -0.3) between SMRI and SST in the Arabian Sea and Central Indian Ocean which indicate that lower temperature in the Arabian Sea and Central Indian Ocean are associated with greater rainfall over the country. This study also shows that consistently warming throughout the Indian Ocean. The result shows that the perceptible water over the county is decreasing with the time which the influence to the reduction of precipitation over the area by weakening drawn draft. In addition, evaporation is getting weaker over the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and Sri Lankan landmass which leads to reduction of moisture availability required for the SWM rainfall over Sri Lanka. At the same time, weakening of the SST gradients between Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal can deteriorate the monsoon circulation, untimely which diminish SWM over Sri Lanka. The decreasing trends of moisture, moisture transport, zonal wind, moisture divergence with weakening evaporation over Arabian Sea, during the past decade having an aggravating influence on decreasing trends of monsoon rainfall over the Sri Lanka.

Keywords: Arabian Sea, moisture flux convergence, South West Monsoon, Sri Lanka, sea surface temperature

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