Search results for: supply chain resilience triangle

Authors: G. Gevorgyan, S. Khudaverdyan, A. Vaseashta

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The Lake Sevan basin is situated in the eastern part of the Republic of Armenia (Gegharquniq marz/district). The heavy metal pollution of the some tributaries of Lake Sevan was investigated. Water sampling was performed in August and December, 2014 from the 4 observation sites: 1) Sotq river upstream (about 600 meters upstream from the Sotq gold mine); 2) Sotq river mouth; 3) Masrik river mouth; 4) Dzknaget river mouth. Heavy metal (V, Fe, Ni, Cu, As, Mo, Pb) concentrations in the water samples were determined by the standard methods using an atomic absorption spectrophotometer. The results of the study showed that heavy metal content mainly increased from the upstream of the Sotq river to the mouth of the Masrik river which may have been conditioned by the influence of gold mining activity as the Masrik and its tributary-Sotq rivers passing through the gold mining area were exposed to heavy metal pollution. The observation sites can be ranked by pollution degree as follows: №3> №2> №1> №4. The highest heavy metal pollution degree was observed in the Masrik river mouth which may have been conditioned by the direct impact of gold mining activity and the pressure of its tributary–the Sotq river which flows through the gold mining area. The lowest heavy metal pollution degree was registered in the Dzknaget river mouth which flowing through rural areas wasn’t subject to significant heavy metal pollution. According to the observation sites of the Sotq and Masrik rivers, high positive correlation was mainly observed between the concentrations of the investigated heavy metals (except nickel) which indicated that all the heavy metals except the nickel had the same anthropogenic pollution source which was the activity of the Sotq gold mine. In general, it is possible to state that the activity of the Sotq gold mine in the Lake Sevan basin caused the heavy metal pollution of the Sotq and Masrik rivers which may have posed environmental hazards. Heavy metals are nondegradable substances, and heavy metal pollution of freshwater systems may pose risks to the environment and human health through accumulation in the tissues of aquatic organisms, water-food chain as well as oral ingestion and dermal contact.

Keywords: Armenia, Lake Sevan basin, gold mining activity, river ecosystems, heavy metal pollution

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Authors: Boudjenah-Haroun Saliha, Isselnane Souad, Nouani Abdelwahab, Baaissa Babelhadj, Mati Abderrahmane

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Algeria is experiencing significant development of the dairy sector, where consumption of milk and milk products increased by 2.7 million tons in 2008 to 4,400,000 tons in 2013, and cheese production has reached 1640 tons in the year 2014 with average consumption of 0.7 kg/person/year. Although rennet is still the most used coagulating enzyme in cheese, its production has been growing worldwide shortage. This shortage is primarily due to a growing increase in the production and consumption of cheese, and the inability to increase in parallel the production of rennet. This shortage has caused very large fluctuations in its price). To overcome these obstacles, much research has been undertaken to find effective and competitive substitutes used industrially. For this, the selection of a local production of rennet substitute is desirable. It would allow a permanent supply with limited dependence on imports and price fluctuations. Investigations conducted by our research team showed that extracts coagulants from the stomachs of older camels are characterized by a coagulating power than those from younger camels. The objective of this work is to study the possibility of substituting commercial rennet coagulant by gastric enzymes from adult camels for coagulation bovine milk. Excerpts from the raw camel coagulants obtained are characterized through their teneures proteins and clotting and proteolytic activities. Milk clotting conditions by the action of these extracts were optimized. Milk clotting time all treated with enzyme preparations and under different conditions was calculated. Bovine rennet has been used for comparison. The results show that crude extracts from gastric adult camel can be good substituting bovine rennet.

Keywords: Algeria, camel, cheese, coagulation, gastric extracts, milk

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Authors: Shailendra M. Pradhan, Upendra M. Pradhan

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Disasters are perennial features of human civilization. The recurring earthquakes, floods, cyclones, among others, that result in massive loss of lives and devastation, is a grim reminder of the fact that, despite all our success stories of development, and progress in science and technology, human society is perennially at risk to disasters. The apparent threat of climate change and global warming only severe our disaster risks. Darjeeling hills, situated along Eastern Himalayan region of India, and famous for its three Ts – tea, tourism and toy-train – is also equally notorious for its disasters. The recurring landslides and earthquakes, the cyclone Aila, and the Ambootia landslides, considered as the largest landslide in Asia, are strong evidence of the vulnerability of Darjeeling hills to natural disasters. Given its geographical location along the Hindu-Kush Himalayas, the region is marked by rugged topography, geo-physically unstable structure, high-seismicity, and fragile landscape, making it prone to disasters of different kinds and magnitudes. Most of the studies on disasters in Darjeeling hills are, however, scientific and geographical in orientation that focuses on the underlying geological and physical processes to the neglect of social and political conditions. This has created a tendency among the researchers and policy-makers to endorse and promote a particular type of discourse that does not consider the social and political aspects of disasters in Darjeeling hills. Disaster, this paper argues, is a complex phenomenon, and a result of diverse factors, both physical and human. The hazards caused by the physical and geological agents, and the vulnerabilities produced and rooted in political, economic, social and cultural structures of a society, together result in disasters. In this sense, disasters are as much a result of political and economic conditions as it is of physical environment. The human aspect of disasters, therefore, compels us to address intricating social and political challenges that ultimately determine our resilience and vulnerability to disasters. Set within the above milieu, the aims of the paper are twofold: a) to provide a political and sociological account of disasters in Darjeeling hills; and, b) to identify and address the root causes of its vulnerabilities to disasters. In situating disasters in Darjeeling Hills, the paper adopts the Pressure and Release Model (PAR) that provides a theoretical insight into the study of social and political aspects of disasters, and to examine myriads of other related issues therein. The PAR model conceptualises risk as a complex combination of vulnerabilities, on the one hand, and hazards, on the other. Disasters, within the PAR framework, occur when hazards interact with vulnerabilities. The root causes of vulnerability, in turn, could be traced to social and political structures such as legal definitions of rights, gender relations, and other ideological structures and processes. In this way, the PAR model helps the present study to identify and unpack the root causes of vulnerabilities and disasters in Darjeeling hills that have largely remained neglected in dominant discourses, thereby providing a more nuanced and sociologically sensitive understanding of disasters.

Keywords: Darjeeling, disasters, PAR, vulnerabilities

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Authors: R. M. Rajapaksa

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Construction industry is one of the key players in driving the economy of a country to achieve its prosperity. However, a dispute is one of the crucial factors which prevent the completion of construction contracts within the budgeted cost, scheduled time, and accepted quality. Disputes are inevitable in the construction contract. Accordingly, a study has been undertaken to identify the factors affecting contractual disputes in construction projects in Sri Lanka. The study was a mixed approach with major qualitative and minor quantitative. Qualitative study was set in the form of in-depth interviews with eighteen participants, and quantitative study was conducted using a questionnaire with twenty-four respondents from previously implemented projects by the National Water Supply & Drainage Board representing the employer, engineer and the Contractor to identify the factors affecting contractual disputes and to verify most critical factors respectively. Data analysis for qualitative and quantitative studies was carried out by means of transcribing, code & categorizeand average score methods, respectively. The study reveals that there are forty factors affecting the contractual disputes in construction contracts in Sri Lanka. The finding further illustrates that conflicting decisions by inexperience personnel in the higher position of the Employer, ambiguities resulting inadequate descriptions of the preliminary/general items in price schedule, unfair valuation and late confirmation of variations, unfair determination due to lack of experience of the Engineer/Consultant, under certification of progress payments, unfair grant of EOT & application of delay damages, unreasonable claims for variation of works, errors/discrepancies/ambiguities in the contract conditions and discrepancies & errors in designs & specifications are the most critical factors affecting contractual disputes. Finally, the study proposed remedial measures to most critical factors affecting contractual disputes.

Keywords: dispute, contractual, factors, employer, engineer, contractor, construction projects

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Authors: E. Samain, T. Aussenac, D. van Tuinen, S. Selim

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Plant growth promoting rhizobacteria are known as potential biofertilizers and plant resistance inducers. The present work aims to study the durability of the resistance induced as a response to wheat seeds inoculation with PB2 and its influence by Z. tritici strains. The internal and external roots colonization have been determined in vitro, seven days post inoculation, by measuring the colony forming unit (CFU). In planta experimentations were done under controlled conditions included four wheat cultivars with different levels of resistance against Septoria Leaf Blotch (SLB) and four Z. tritici strains with high aggressiveness and resistance levels to fungicides. Plantlets were inoculated with PB2 at sowing and infected with Z. tritici at 3 leaves or tillering growth stages. The infection level with SLB was evaluated at 17 days post inoculation using real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Results showed that PB2 has a high potential of wheat root external colonization (> 10⁶ CFU/g of root). However, the internal colonization seems to be cultivar dependent. Indeed, PB2 has not been observed as endophytic for one cultivar but has a high level of internal colonization with more than 104 CFU/g of root concerning the three others. Two wheat cultivars (susceptible and moderated resistant) were used to investigate PB2-induced resistance (PB2-IR). After the first infection with Z. tritici, results showed that PB2-IR has conferred a high protection efficiency (40-90%) against SLB in the two tested cultivars. Whereas the PB2-IR was effective against all tested strains with the moderate resistant cultivar, it was higher with the susceptible cultivar (> 64%) but against three of the four tested strains. Concerning the durability of the PB2-IR, after the second infection timing, it has been observed a significant decrease (10-59%) depending strains in the moderate resistant cultivar. Contrarily, the susceptible cultivar showed a stable and high protection level (76-84%) but against three of the four tested strains and interestingly, the strain that overcame PB2-IR was not the same as that of the first infection timing. To conclude, PB2 induces a high and durable resistance against Z. tritici. The PB2-IR is pathogen strain, plant growth stage and genotype dependent. These results may explain the loss of the induced resistance effectiveness under field conditions.

Keywords: induced resistance, Paenibacillus sp. strain B2, wheat genotypes, Zymoseptoria tritici

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Authors: V. M. Mmbengwa, J. R. M. Mabuso, C. P. Du Plooy, S. Laurrie, H. D. van Schalkwyk

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Sweet potato products are necessary for the provision of essential nutrients in every household, regardless of their poverty status. Their consumption appears to be highly influenced by socio-economic factors, such as malnutrition, food insecurity and unemployment. Therefore, market availability is crucial for these cultivars to resolve some of the socio-economic factors. The aim of the study was to investigate market availability of sweet potato cultivars in the North West Province. In this study, both qualitative and quantitative research methodologies were used. Qualitative methodology was used to explain the quantitative outcomes of the variables. On the other hand, quantitative results were used to test the hypothesis. The study used SPSS software to analyse the data. Cross-tabulation and Chi-square statistics were used to obtain the descriptive and inferential analyses, respectively. The study found that the Blesbok cultivar is dominating the markets of the North West Province, with the Monate cultivar dominating in the Bojanala Platinum (75 %) and Dr Ruth Segomotsi Mompati (25 %) districts. It is also found that a unit increase in the supply of sweet potato cultivars in both local and district municipal markets is accompanied by a reduced demand of 28 % and 33 % at district and local markets, respectively. All these results were found to be significant at p<0.05. The results further revealed that in four out of nine local municipality markets, the Blesbok cultivar seems to be solely available in those four local municipal markets of North West Province. It can be concluded that Blesbok, relative to other cultivars, is the most commercialised sweet potato variety and that consumers across this Province are highly aware of it. For other cultivars to assume market prominence in this Province, a well-designed marketing campaign for creating awareness may be required. This campaign may be based on nutritional advantages of different cultivars, of which Blesbok is relatively inferior, compared to orange-fleshed sweet potato varieties.

Keywords: cultivar, malnutrition, markets, sweet potato

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Authors: Sunil Kumar, Uday C. Ghoshal

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Background and aims: Serotonin (5-hydroxtryptamine, 5-HT) is an important factor in gut function, playing key roles in intestinal peristalsis and secretion, and in sensory signaling in the brain-gut axis. Removal from its sites of action is mediated by a specific protein called the serotonin reuptake transporter (SERT). Polymorphisms in the promoter region of the SERT gene have effects on transcriptional activity, resulting in altered 5-HT reuptake efficiency. Functional polymorphisms may underlie disturbance in gut function in individuals suffering with disorders such as irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). The aim of this study was to assess the potential association between SERT polymorphisms and the diarrhea predominant IBS (D-IBS) phenotype Subjects: A total of 36 northern Indian female patients and 55 female northern Indian healthy controls (HC) were subjected to genotyping. Methods: Leucocyte DNA of all subjects was analyzed by polymerase chain reaction based technologies for SERT polymorphisms, specifically the insertion/deletion polymorphism in the promoter (SERT-P). Statistical analysis was performed to assess association of SERT polymorphism allele with the D-IBS phenotype. Results: The frequency of distribution of SERT-P gene was comparable between female patients with IBS and HC (p = 0.086). However, frequency of SERT-P deletion/deletion genotype was significantly higher in female patients with D-IBS compared to C-IBS and A-IBS [17/19 (89.5%) vs. 4/12 (33.3%) vs. 1/5 (20%), p=0.001, respectively]. The mucosal level of serotonin was higher in D-IBS compared to C-IBS and A-IBS [Median, range (159.26, 98.78–212.1) vs. 110.4, 67.87–143.53 vs. 92.34, 78.8–166.3 pmol/mL, p=0.001, respectively]. The mucosal level of serotonin was higher in female patients with IBS with SERT-P deletion/deletion genotype compared deletion/insertion and insertion/insertion [157.65, 67.87–212.1 vs. 110.4, 78.1–143.32 vs. 100.5, 69.1–132.03 pmol/mL, p=0.001, respectively]. Patients with D-IBS with deletion/deletion genotype more often reported symptoms of abdominal pain, discomfort (p=0.025) and bloating (p=0.039). Symptoms development following lactose ingestion was strongly associated with D-IBS and SERT-P deletion/deletion genotype (p=0.004). Conclusions: Significant association was observed between D-IBS and the SERT-P deletion/deletion genotype, suggesting that the serotonin transporter is a potential candidate gene for D-IBS in women.

Keywords: serotonin, SERT, inflammatory bowel disease, genetic polymorphism

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Authors: Feixiong Chen, Naoufel Haddour, Marie Frenea-Robin, Yves MéRieux, Yann Chevolot, Virginie Monnier

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Neonatal thrombopenia occurs when the mother generates antibodies against her baby’s platelet antigens. It is particularly critical for newborns because it can cause coagulation troubles leading to intracranial hemorrhage. In this case, diagnosis must be done quickly to make platelets transfusion immediately after birth. Before transfusion, platelet antigens must be tested carefully to avoid rejection. The majority of thrombopenia (95 %) are caused by antibodies directed against Human Platelet Antigen 1a (HPA-1a) or 5b (HPA-5b). The common method for antigen platelets detection is polymerase chain reaction allowing for identification of gene sequence. However, it is expensive, time-consuming and requires significant blood volume which is not suitable for newborns. We propose to develop a point-of-care device based on double functionalized magnetic colloids with 1) antibodies specific to antigen platelets and 2) highly sensitive electroactive molecules in order to be detected by an electrochemical microsensor. These magnetic colloids will be used first to isolate platelets from other blood components, then to capture specifically platelets bearing HPA-1a and HPA-5b antigens and finally to attract them close to sensor working electrode for improved electrochemical signal. The expected advantages are an assay time lower than 20 min starting from blood volume smaller than 100 µL. Our functionalization procedure based on amine dendrimers and NHS-ester modification of initial carboxyl colloids will be presented. Functionalization efficiency was evaluated by colorimetric titration of surface chemical groups, zeta potential measurements, infrared spectroscopy, fluorescence scanning and cyclic voltammetry. Our results showed that electroactive molecules and antibodies can be immobilized successfully onto magnetic colloids. Application of a magnetic field onto working electrode increased the detected electrochemical signal. Magnetic colloids were able to capture specific purified antigens extracted from platelets.

Keywords: Magnetic Nanoparticles , Electroactive Molecules, Antibody, Platelet

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Authors: Jin Hwa Yang, Hwang Bae, Sung Uk Ryu, Byong Guk Jeon, Sung Jae Yi, Hyun Sik Park

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Experimental studies using a large-scale thermal-hydraulic integral test facility, System–integrated Modular Advanced Reactor Integral Test Loop (SMART-ITL), have been carried out to validate the performance of the prototype, SMART. After Fukushima accident, the passive safety systems have been dealt as important designs for retaining of nuclear safety. One of the concerned scenarios for evaluating the passive safety system is a Complete Loss of Coolant Flow (CLOF). The flowrate of coolant in the primary system is maintained by Reactor Coolant Pump (RCP). When the supply of electric power of RCP is shut off, the flowrate of coolant decreases sharply, and the temperature of the coolant increases rapidly. Therefore, the reactor trip signal is activated to prevent the over-heating of the core. In this situation, Passive Residual Heat Removal System (PRHRS) plays a significant role to assure the soundness of the SMART. The PRHRS using a two-phase natural circulation is a passive safety system in the SMART to eliminate the heat of steam generator in the secondary system with heat exchanger submarined in the Emergency Cooling Tank (ECT). As the RCPs continue to coast down, inherent natural circulation in the primary system transfers heat to the secondary system. The transferred heat is removed by PRHRS in the secondary system. In this paper, the progress of the CLOF accident is described with experimental data of transient condition performed by SMART-ITL. Finally, the capability of passive safety system and inherent natural circulation will be evaluated.

Keywords: CLOF, natural circulation, PRHRS, SMART-ITL

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Authors: Sangita Pokhrel, Nalinda Somasiri, Rebecca Jeyavadhanam, Swathi Ganesan

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Tourism is a booming industry with huge future potential for global wealth and employment. There are countless data generated over social media sites every day, creating numerous opportunities to bring more insights to decision-makers. The integration of Big Data Technology into the tourism industry will allow companies to conclude where their customers have been and what they like. This information can then be used by businesses, such as those in charge of managing visitor centers or hotels, etc., and the tourist can get a clear idea of places before visiting. The technical perspective of natural language is processed by analysing the sentiment features of online reviews from tourists, and we then supply an enhanced long short-term memory (LSTM) framework for sentiment feature extraction of travel reviews. We have constructed a web review database using a crawler and web scraping technique for experimental validation to evaluate the effectiveness of our methodology. The text form of sentences was first classified through Vader and Roberta model to get the polarity of the reviews. In this paper, we have conducted study methods for feature extraction, such as Count Vectorization and TFIDF Vectorization, and implemented Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) classifier algorithm for the sentiment analysis to decide the tourist’s attitude towards the destinations is positive, negative, or simply neutral based on the review text that they posted online. The results demonstrated that from the CNN algorithm, after pre-processing and cleaning the dataset, we received an accuracy of 96.12% for the positive and negative sentiment analysis.

Keywords: counter vectorization, convolutional neural network, crawler, data technology, long short-term memory, web scraping, sentiment analysis

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Authors: Masahiro Nochi

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This study explores the process in which a Japanese child with congenital blindness deepens understanding of the condition of being “unable to see” and develops the idea of “blind self,” despite having no direct experience of vision. The rehabilitation activities of a child with a congenital visual impairment that were video-recorded from 1 to 6 years old were analyzed qualitatively. The duration of the video was about 80 hours. The recordings were transcribed verbatim, and the episodes in which the child used the words related to the act of “looking” were extracted. Detailed transcripts were constructed referencing the notations of conversation analysis. Characteristics of interactions in those episodes were identified and compared longitudinally. Results showed that the child used the expression "look" under certain interaction patterns and her body expressions and interaction with adults developed in conjunction with the development of language use. Four stages were identified. At the age of 1, interactions involving “look” began to occur. The child said "Look" in the sequence: the child’s “Look,” an adult’s “I’m looking,” certain performances by the child, and the adult’s words of praise. At the age of 3, the child began to behave in accordance with the spatial attributes of the act of "looking," such as turning her face to the adult’s voice before saying, “Look.” She also began to use the expression “Keep looking,” which seemed to reflect her understanding of the temporality of the act of “looking.” At the age of 4, the use of “Look” or “Keep looking” became three times more frequent. She also started to refer to the act of looking in the future, such as “Come and look at my puppy someday.” At the age of 5, she moved her hands toward the adults when she was holding something she wanted to show them. She seemed to understand that people could see the object more clearly when it was in close priximity. About that time, she began to say “I cannot see” to her mother, which suggested a heightened understanding of her own blindness. The findings indicate that as she grew up, the child came to utilize nonverbal behavior before and after the order "Look" to make the progress of the interaction with adults even more certain. As a result, actions that reflect the characteristics of the sighted person's visual experience were incorporated into the interaction chain. The purpose of "Look," with which she intended to attract the adult's attention at first, changed and became something that requests a confirmation she was unable to make herself. It is considered that such a change in the use of the word as well as interaction with sighted adults reflected her heightened self-awareness as someone who could not do what sighted people could do easily. A blind child can gradually deepen their understanding of their own characteristics of blindness among sighted people around them. The child can also develop “blind self” by learning how to interact with others even without direct visual experiences.

Keywords: blindness, child development, conversation analysis, self-concept

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Authors: J. H. Boonzaaier, A. C. Brent

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South Africa, a water scarce country, experiences the phenomenon that its life supporting natural water resources is seriously threatened by the users that are totally dependent on it. South Africa is globally applauded to have of the best and most progressive water laws and policies. There are however growing concerns regarding natural water resource quality deterioration and a critical void in the management of natural resources and compliance to policies due to increasing institutional uncertainties and failures. These are in accordance with concerns of many South African researchers and practitioners that call for a change in paradigm from talk to practice and a more constructive, practical approach to governance challenges in the management of water resources. A qualitative theory-building case study through longitudinal action research was conducted from 2014 to 2017. The research assessed whether a strategic positioned institutional agent can be parlayed to facilitate and execute WRM on catchment level by engaging multiple stakeholders in a polycentric setting. Through a critical realist approach a distinction was made between ex ante self-deterministic human behaviour in the realist realm, and ex post governance-management in the constructivist realm. A congruence analysis, including Toulmin’s method of argumentation analysis, was utilised. The study evaluated the unique case of a self-steering local water management institution, the Impala Water Users Association (WUA) in the Pongola River catchment in the northern part of the KwaZulu-Natal Province of South Africa. Exploiting prevailing water resource threats, it expanded its ancillary functions from 20,000 to 300,000 ha. Embarking on WRM activities, it addressed natural water system quality assessments, social awareness, knowledge support, and threats, such as: soil erosion, waste and effluent into water systems, coal mining, and water security dimensions; through structured engagement with 21 different catchment stakeholders. By implementing a proposed polycentric governance-management model on a catchment scale, the WUA achieved to fill the void. It developed a foundation and capacity to protect the resilience of the natural environment that is critical for freshwater resources to ensure long-term water security of the Pongola River basin. Further work is recommended on appropriate statutory delegations, mechanisms of sustainable funding, sufficient penetration of knowledge to local levels to catalyse behaviour change, incentivised support from professionals, back-to-back expansion of WUAs to alleviate scale and cost burdens, and the creation of catchment data monitoring and compilation centres.

Keywords: institutional agent, water governance, polycentric water resource management, water resource management

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Authors: Faiz N. K. Yusufi, Aquil Ahmed, Jamal Ahmad

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Diabetes in India is growing at an alarming rate and the complications caused by it need to be controlled. Coronary heart disease (CHD) is one of the complications that will be discussed for prediction in this study. India has the second most number of diabetes patients in the world. To the best of our knowledge, there is no CHD risk score for Indian type 2 diabetes patients. Any form of CHD has been taken as the event of interest. A sample of 750 was determined and randomly collected from the Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Diabetes and Endocrinology, J.N.M.C., A.M.U., Aligarh, India. Collected variables include patients data such as sex, age, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), blood sugar fasting (BSF), post prandial sugar (PP), glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), systolic blood pressure (SBP), smoking, alcohol habits, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein (HDL), low density lipoprotein (LDL), very low density lipoprotein (VLDL), physical activity, duration of diabetes, diet control, history of antihypertensive drug treatment, family history of diabetes, waist circumference, hip circumference, medications, central obesity and history of CHD. Predictive risk scores of CHD events are designed by cox proportional hazard regression. Model calibration and discrimination is assessed from Hosmer Lemeshow and area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Overfitting and underfitting of the model is checked by applying regularization techniques and best method is selected between ridge, lasso and elastic net regression. Youden’s index is used to choose the optimal cut off point from the scores. Five year probability of CHD is predicted by both survival function and Markov chain two state model and the better technique is concluded. The risk scores for CHD developed can be calculated by doctors and patients for self-control of diabetes. Furthermore, the five-year probabilities can be implemented as well to forecast and maintain the condition of patients.

Keywords: coronary heart disease, cox proportional hazard regression, ROC curve, type 2 diabetes Mellitus

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Authors: Jantakan Jullawateelert, Korakod Haonoo, Sutipong Sananseang, Sarun Torpaiboon, Thanunthon Bowornsakulwong, Lalintip Hocharoen

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Process scale-up is essential for the biological process to increase production capacity from bench-scale bioreactors to either pilot or commercial production. Scale-up based on constant volumetric oxygen mass transfer coefficient (KLa) is mostly used as a scale-up factor since oxygen supply is one of the key limiting factors for cell growth. However, to estimate KLa of culture vessels operated with different conditions are time-consuming since it is considerably influenced by a lot of factors. To overcome the issue, this study aimed to establish correlation equations of KLa and operating parameters in 0.5 L and 5 L bioreactor employed with pitched-blade impeller and gas sparger. Temperature, gas flow rate, agitation speed, and impeller position were selected as process parameters and equations were created using response surface methodology (RSM) based on central composite design (CCD). In addition, the effects of these parameters on KLa were also investigated. Based on RSM, second-order polynomial models for 0.5 L and 5 L bioreactor were obtained with an acceptable determination coefficient (R²) as 0.9736 and 0.9190, respectively. These models were validated, and experimental values showed differences less than 10% from the predicted values. Moreover, RSM revealed that gas flow rate is the most significant parameter while temperature and agitation speed were also found to greatly affect the KLa in both bioreactors. Nevertheless, impeller position was shown to influence KLa in only 5L system. To sum up, these modeled correlations can be used to accurately predict KLa within the specified range of process parameters of two different sizes of bioreactors for further scale-up application.

Keywords: response surface methodology, scale-up, stirred-tank bioreactor, volumetric oxygen mass transfer coefficient

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Authors: Te Kīpa Kēpa B. Morgan, Oliver W. Mcmillan, Dylan N. Taute, Tumanako N. Fa'aui

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Epistemologies are ways of knowing. Indigenous Peoples are aware that they do not perceive and experience the world in the same way as others. So it is important when empowering Indigenous epistemologies, such as that of the New Zealand Māori, to also be able to represent a scientific understanding within the same analysis. A geothermal development assessment tool has been developed by adapting the Mauri Model Decision Making Framework. Mauri is a metric that is capable of representing the change in the life-supporting capacity of things and collections of things. The Mauri Model is a method of grouping mauri indicators as dimension averages in order to allow holistic assessment and also to conduct sensitivity analyses for the effect of worldview bias. R-shiny is the coding platform used for this Vision Mātauranga research which has created an expert decision support tool (DST) that combines a stakeholder assessment of worldview bias with an impact assessment of mauri-based indicators to determine the sustainability of proposed geothermal development. The initial intention was to develop guidelines for quantifying mātauranga Māori impacts related to geothermal resources. To do this, three typical scenarios were considered: a resource owner wishing to assess the potential for new geothermal development; another party wishing to assess the environmental and cultural impacts of the proposed development; an assessment that focuses on the holistic sustainability of the resource, including its surface features. Indicator sets and measurement thresholds were developed that are considered necessary considerations for each assessment context and these have been grouped to represent four mauri dimensions that mirror the four well-being criteria used for resource management in Aotearoa, New Zealand. Two case studies have been conducted to test the DST suitability for quantifying mātauranga Māori and other biophysical factors related to a geothermal system. This involved estimating mauri0meter values for physical features such as temperature, flow rate, frequency, colour, and developing indicators to also quantify qualitative observations about the geothermal system made by Māori. A retrospective analysis has then been conducted to verify different understandings of the geothermal system. The case studies found that the expert DST is useful for geothermal development assessment, especially where hapū (indigenous sub-tribal grouping) are conflicted regarding the benefits and disadvantages of their’ and others’ geothermal developments. These results have been supplemented with evaluations for the cumulative impacts of geothermal developments experienced by different parties using integration techniques applied to the time history curve of the expert DST worldview bias weighted plotted against the mauri0meter score. Cumulative impacts represent the change in resilience or potential of geothermal systems, which directly assists with the holistic interpretation of change from an Indigenous Peoples’ perspective.

Keywords: decision support tool, holistic geothermal assessment, indigenous knowledge, mauri model decision-making framework

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Authors: Krishna Dahiya

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Introduction: Labour pain has been described as the most severe pain experienced by women in their lives. Pain management in labour is one of the most important challenges faced by the obstetrician. The opioids are the primary treatment for patients with moderate and severe pain but these drugs are not always tolerated and are associated with dose-dependent side effects. Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, too, are associated with variable adverse effects. Considering these factors, our study compared the efficacy and side effect of intravenous tramadol and paracetamol. Objective: To evaluate the efficacy and adverse effects of an intravenous infusion of 1000 mg of paracetamol as compared with an intravenous injection of 50mg of tramadol for intrapartum analgesia. Methods: In a randomized prospective study at Pt. BDS PGIMS, 200 women in active labor were allocated to received either paracetamol (n=100) or tramadol (n=100). The primary outcome was the efficacy of the drug to supply adequate analgesia as measured by a change in the visual analog scale (VAS) pain intensity score at various times after drug administration. The secondary outcomes included the need for additional rescue analgesia and the presence of adverse maternal or fetal events. Results: The mean age of cases were 25.55 ± 3.849 years and 25.60 ± 3.655 years respectively As recorded by the VAS score, there was significant pain reduction at 30 minutes, and at 1 and 2 hours in both groups (P<0.01). In comparison, between group I and II, a significantly higher rate of nausea and vomiting in tramadol group (14% vs 8%; P < 0.03) patients. Similarly, drowsiness (0% vs 11%; P<0.01), dry mouth (0% vs 8%; P<0.04) and dizziness (0% vs 9%; P<0.02) was also significant in group II. Conclusion: Due to difficulty in administering epidural analgesia to all parturients, administration of paracetamol and tramadol infusion for analgesia is simple and less invasive alternative. In the present study, both paracetamol and tramadol were equally effective for labour analgesia but paracetamol has emerged as safe alternative as compared to tramadol due to a low incidence of side effects.

Keywords: paracetamol, tramadol, labor, analgesia

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Authors: Syed Toqueer, Omer Younus

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Terrorism, today, has emerged as a global menace with Pakistan being the most adversely affected state. Therefore, the motive behind this study is to empirically establish the linkage of terrorism with socio-economic (uneven income distribution, poverty and unemployment) and political nexuses so that a policy recommendation can be put forth to better approach this issue in Pakistan. For this purpose, the study employs two competing models, namely, the distributed lag model and OLS, so that findings of the model may be consolidated comprehensively, over the reference period of 1984-2012. The findings of both models are indicative of the fact that uneven income distribution of Pakistan is rather a contributing factor towards terrorism when measured through GDP per capita. This supports the hypothesis that immiserizing modernization theory is applicable for the state of Pakistan where the underprivileged are marginalized. Results also suggest that other socio-economic variables (poverty, unemployment and consumer confidence) can condense the brutality of terrorism once these conditions are catered to and improved. The rational of opportunity cost is at the base of this argument. Poor conditions of employment and poverty reduces the opportunity cost for individuals to be recruited by terrorist organizations as economic returns are considerably low and thus increasing the supply of volunteers and subsequently increasing the intensity of terrorism. The argument of political freedom as a means of lowering terrorism stands true. The more the people are politically repressed the more alternative and illegal means they will find to make their voice heard. Also, the argument that politically transitioning economy faces more terrorism is found applicable for Pakistan. Finally, the study contributes to an ongoing debate on which of the two set of factors are more significant with relation to terrorism by suggesting that socio-economic factors are found to be the primary causes of terrorism for Pakistan.

Keywords: terrorism, socioeconomic conditions, political freedom, distributed lag model, ordinary least square

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Authors: Ola Jon Mork, Lars Andre Giske, Emil Bjørlykhaug

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Stabilization of critical processes in order to have the right quality of the products, more efficient production and smoother flow is a key issue in lean production. This paper presents how simulation of key welding processes can stabilize complicated welding processes in small scale production, and how simulation can impact the entire production concept seen from the perspective of lean production. First, a field study was made to learn the production processes in the factory, and subsequently the field study was transformed into a value stream map to get insight into each operation, the quality issues, operation times, lead times and flow of materials. Valuable practical knowledge of how the welding operations were done by operators, appropriate tools and jigs, and type of robots that could be used, was collected. All available information was then implemented into a simulation environment for further elaboration and development. Three researchers, the management of the company and skilled operators at the work floor where working on the project over a period of eight months, and a detailed description of the process was made by the researchers. The simulation showed that simulation could solve a number of technical challenges, the robot program can be tuned in off line mode, and the design and testing of the robot cell could be made in the simulator. Further on the design of the product could be optimized for robot welding and the jigs could be designed and tested in simulation environment. This means that a key issue of lean production can be solved; the welding operation will work with almost 100% performance when it is put into real production. Stabilizing of one key process is critical to gain control of the entire value chain, then a Takt Time can be established and the focus can be directed towards the next process in the production which should be stabilized. Results show that industrial parameters like welding time, welding cost and welding quality can be defined on the simulation stage. Further on, this gives valuable information for calculation of the factories business performance, like manufacturing volume and manufacturing efficiency. Industrial impact from simulation is more efficient implementation of lean manufacturing, since the welding process can be stabilized. More research should be done to gain more knowledge about simulation as a tool for implementation of lean, especially where there complex processes.

Keywords: simulation, lean, stabilization, welding process

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Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility

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Authors: Evar C. Umeozor, Experience I. Nduagu, Ian D. Gates

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The energy requirements of carbon dioxide utilization (CDU) technologies/processes are diverse, so also are their environmental footprints. This paper explores the energy and environmental impacts of systems for CO₂ conversion to fuels, chemicals, and materials. Energy needs of the technologies and processes deployable in CO₂ conversion systems are met by one or combinations of hydrogen (chemical), electricity, heat, and light. Likewise, the environmental footprint of any CO₂ utilization pathway depends on the systems involved. So far, evaluation of CDU systems has been constrained to particular energy source/type or a subset of the overall system needed to make CDU possible. This introduces limitations to the general understanding of the energy and environmental implications of CDU, which has led to various pitfalls in past studies. A CDU system has an energy source, CO₂ supply, and conversion units. We apply a holistic approach to consider the impacts of all components in the process, including various sources of energy, CO₂ feedstock, and conversion technologies. The electricity sources include nuclear power, renewables (wind and solar PV), gas turbine, and coal. Heat is supplied from either electricity or natural gas, and hydrogen is produced from either steam methane reforming or electrolysis. The CO₂ capture unit uses either direct air capture or post-combustion capture via amine scrubbing, where applicable, integrated configurations of the CDU system are explored. We demonstrate how the overall energy and environmental impacts of each utilization pathway are obtained by aggregating the values for all components involved. Proper accounting of the energy and emission intensities of CDU must incorporate total balances for the utilization process and differences in timescales between alternative conversion pathways. Our results highlight opportunities for the use of clean energy sources, direct air capture, and a number of promising CO₂ conversion pathways for producing methanol, ethanol, synfuel, urea, and polymer materials.

Keywords: carbon dioxide utilization, processes, energy options, environmental impacts

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Authors: Eisha Vienna M. Fernandez, Cristan Q. Cabanilla, Hiyasmin Lim, John Donnie A. Ramos

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Allergy is a multifactorial disease affecting a significant proportion of the population. It is developed through the interaction of allergens and the presence of certain polymorphisms in various susceptibility genes. In this study, the correlation of the 105A/C single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) of the IL-18 gene and house dust mite-specific IgE among Filipino allergic and non-allergic population was investigated. Atopic status was defined by serum total IgE concentration of ≥100 IU/mL, while house dust mite allergy was defined by specific IgE value ≥ +1SD of IgE of nonatopic participants. Two hundred twenty match-paired Filipino cases and controls aged 6-60 were the subjects of this investigation. The level of total IgE and Specific IgE were measured using Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) while Polymerase Chain Reaction – Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) analysis was used in the SNP detection. Sensitization profiles of the allergic patients revealed that 97.3% were sensitized to Blomia tropicalis, 40.0% to Dermatophagoides farinae, and 29.1% to Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus. Multiple sensitization to HDMs was also observed among the 47.27% of the atopic participants. Any of the allergy classes of the atopic triad were exhibited by the cases (allergic asthma: 48.18%; allergic rhinitis: 62.73%; atopic dermatitis: 19.09%), and two or all of these atopic states are concurrently occurring in 26.36% of the cases. A greater proportion of the atopic participants with allergic asthma and allergic rhinitis were sensitized to D. farinae, and D. pteronyssinus, while more of those with atopic dermatitis were sensitized to D. pteronyssinus than D. farinae. Results show that there is overrepresentation of the allele “A” of the 105A/C IL-18 gene SNP in both cases and control groups of the population. The genotype that predominate the population is the heterozygous “AC”, followed by the homozygous wild “AA”, and the homozygous variant “CC” being the least. The study confirmed a positive association between serum specific IgE against B. tropicalis and D. pteronyssinus and the allele “C” (Bt P=0.021, Dp P=0.027) and “AC” (Bt P=0.003, Dp P=0.026) genotype. Findings also revealed that the genotypes “AA” (OR:1.217; 95% CI: 0.701-2.113) and “CC” (OR, 3.5; 95% CI: 0.727-16.849) increase the risk of developing allergy. This indicates that the 105A/C IL-18 gene SNP is a candidate genetic marker for HDM allergy among Filipino patients.

Keywords: house dust mite allergy, interleukin-18 (IL-18), single nucleotide polymorphism,

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Authors: J. Naalamle Amissah, Dorcas Osei‐Safo, C. M. Asare, Benjamin Missah‐Assihene, Eric. Y. Danquah, Ivan Addae‐Mensah

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Medicinal plants serve as a reservoir of active ingredients for the treatment of common ailments such as cancer, malaria and diabetes. With the recent wave of health consciousness and reliance on plant based medicines, the demand for medicinal plants has increased considerably. This surge in medicinal plant use has raised great concern amongst key players (herbalist, collectors, conservationist and researchers) along the value chain about the sustainability of the raw material. The over reliance on wild crafting as a means to obtain the raw material spells doom for several of Africa’s native medicinal plant species. In this study domestication protocols for the cultivation of Cryptolepis sanguinolenta (CS), a medicinal plant used in the treatment of malaria were developed. Initial surveys were conducted, using questionnaires comprising of open and close ended questions, to gather information that would inform the domestication and cultivation of the species. A field study was then conducted to determine the plant’s cropping cycle and the effect of staking and plant age on the active ingredient (cryptolepine) concentration in its roots. Results of the survey confirmed the demand for the raw material and threw more light on the harvesting methods and intensity of CS collection from the wild. Cryptolepine concentration was found to be highest (~1.84 mg/100 mg of root material) at 289 days after planting (DAP) which coincided with the peak of root dry weight (52.8 g), signifying the best time for root harvest. Staking was found to be important for seed production. The first 105 DAP were characterized by low yields of root dry weight (13.5 g), followed by a period of rapid growth in which the root dry weight increased almost linearly until 289 DAP. Although dry matter partitioned to the vines increased towards the end of the experimental period (60%), dry matter partitioned to the roots remained fairly constant (30%) throughout the experimental period. Cryptolepine was found to increase as the plant aged and the practice of staking CS promoted pod formation. A suitable cropping cycle for the cultivation of CS was also developed.

Keywords: domestication, staking, conservation, wild harvesting

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Authors: Ayedun Hassan, Ayadi Odunayo Peter

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The ancient city of Abeokuta has been supplied with pipe borne water since 1911, yet, a continuous increase in population and unplanned city expansion makes water a very precious and scarce commodity. The government reserved areas (GRA’s) are well planned, and public water supply is available; however, the sub-urban areas consist of scattered structures with individuals trying to source water by digging wells and boreholes. The geology of the city consists of basement rock which makes digging wells and boreholes very difficult. The present study was conducted to assess the risk arising from the consumption of toxic elements in the groundwater of Abeokuta, Ogun State, Nigeria. Forty-five groundwater samples were collected from nine different areas of Abeokuta and analyzed for physicochemical parameters and toxic elements. The physicochemical parameters were determined using standard methods, while the toxic elements were determined using Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometer (ICP/MS). Ninety-six percent (96%) of the water sample has pH < 6.5, and 11% has conductivity > 250 µSCm⁻¹ limits in drinking water as recommended by WHO. Seven percent (7%) of the samples have Pb concentration >10 µgL⁻¹ while 75% have Al concentration >200 µgL⁻¹ recommended by WHO. The order for risk of cancer from different area of Abeokuta are Cd²⁺ > As³⁺ > Pb²⁺ > Cr⁶⁺ for Funaab, Camp and Obantoko; As³⁺ > Cd²⁺ > Pb²⁺ > Cr⁶⁺ for Ita Osin, Isale Igbein, Ake and Itoku; Cd²⁺ >As > Cr⁶⁺ > Pb²⁺ for Totoro; Pb²⁺ > Cd²⁺ > As³⁺ > Cr⁶⁺ for Idiaba. The order of non-cancer hazard index (HI) calculated for groundwater of Abeokuta City are Cd²⁺ > As³⁺ > Mn²⁺ > Pb²⁺ > Ni²⁺ and were all greater than one, which implies susceptibility to other illnesses. The sources of these elements are the rock and inappropriate waste disposal method, which leached the elements into the groundwater. A combination of sources from food will accumulate these elements in the human body system. Treatment to remove Al and Pb is necessary, while the method of water distribution should be reviewed to ensure access to potable water by the residents.

Keywords: Abeokuta, groundwater, Nigeria, risk

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Authors: B. Suresh Reddy

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The over dependence on chemical fertilizers for nutrient management in crop production for the last few decades has led to several problems affecting soil health, environment and farmers themselves. Based on the field work done in 2012-13 with 1080 farmers of different size-classes in semi-arid regions of Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and Madhya Pradesh states of India, this paper reveals that the farmers in semi-arid regions of India are actively managing soil fertility and other soil properties through a wide range of practices that are based on local resources and knowledge. It also highlights the socio-economic web woven around these soil fertility management practices. This study highlights the contribution of organic matter by traditional soil fertility management practices in maintaining the soil health. Livestock has profound influence on the soil fertility enhancement through supply of organic manure. Empirical data of this study has clearly revealed how farmers’ soil fertility management options are being undermined by government policies that give more priority to chemical fertiliser-based strategies. Based on the findings it is argued that there should be a 'level playing field' for both organic and inorganic soil fertility management methods by promoting and supporting farmers in using organic methods. There is a need to provide credit to farmers for adopting his choice of soil fertility management methods which suits his socio-economic conditions and that best suits the long term productivity of soils. The study suggests that the government policies related to soil fertility management must be enabling, creating the conditions for development based more on locally available resources and local skills and knowledge. This will not only keep Indian soils in healthy condition but also support the livelihoods of millions of people, especially the small and marginal farmers.

Keywords: livestock, organic matter, small farmers, soil fertility

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Authors: Mumtaz Ahmed Sohag, Ishaq Ahmed Sohag

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Kebbi State, located in the Nort-West of Nigeria, is rich in water resources as the major rivers viz. Niger and Rima irrigate a vast majority of land. Besides, there is significant amount of groundwater, which farmers use for agriculture purpose. The groundwater is also a major source of agricultural and domestic water as wells are installed in almost all parts of the region. Although Kebbi State is rich in water, however, there are some pertinent issues which are hampering its agricultural productivity. The low lands (locally called Fadama), has spread out to a vast area. It is inundated every year during the rainy season which lasts from June to September every year. The farmers grow rice during the rainy season when water is standing. They cannot do further agricultural activity for almost two months due to high standing water. This has resulted in widespread waterlogging problem. Besides, the impact of climate change is resulting in rapid variation in river/stream flows. The information about water bodies regarding the availability of water for agricultural and other uses and the behavior of rivers at different flows is seldom available. Furthermore, sediment load (suspended and bedload) is not measured due to which land erosion cannot be countered effectively. This study, carried out in seven different irrigation regions of Kebbi state, found that diversion structures need to be constructed at some strategic locations for the supply of surface water to the farmers. The water table needs to be lowered through an effective drainage system. The monitoring of water bodies is crucial for sound data to help efficient regulation and management of water. Construction of embankments is necessary to control frequent floods in the rivers of Niger and Rima. Furthermore, farmers need capacity and awareness for participatory irrigation management.

Keywords: water bodies, floods, agriculture, waterlogging

Procedia PDF Downloads 237

Authors: Collen Kawiya

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In an effort of reducing post-harvest losses and improving the supply of quality fish products in Malawi, the fish solar tent dryers have been designed in the southern part of Lake Malawi for processing small fish species under the project of Cultivate Africa’s Future (CultiAF). This study was done to promote the adoption of the fish solar tent dryers by the many small scale fish processors in Malawi through the assessment of the economic viability of these dryers. With the use of the project’s baseline survey data, a business model for a constructed ‘ready for use’ solar tent dryer was developed where investment appraisal techniques were calculated in addition with the sensitivity analysis. The study also conducted a risk analysis through the use of the Monte Carlo simulation technique and a probabilistic net present value was found. The investment appraisal results showed that the net present value was US$8,756.85, the internal rate of return was 62% higher than the 16.32% cost of capital and the payback period was 1.64 years. The sensitivity analysis results showed that only two input variables influenced the fish solar dryer investment’s net present value. These are the dried fish selling prices that were correlating positively with the net present value and the fresh fish buying prices that were negatively correlating with the net present value. Risk analysis results showed that the chances that fish processors will make a loss from this type of investment are 17.56%. It was also observed that there exist only a 0.20 probability of experiencing a negative net present value from this type of investment. Lastly, the study found that the net present value of the fish solar tent dryer’s investment is still robust in spite of any changes in the levels of investors risk preferences. With these results, it is concluded that the fish solar tent dryers in Malawi are an economically viable investment because they are able to improve the returns in the fish processing activity. As such, fish processors need to adopt them by investing their money to construct and use them.

Keywords: investment appraisal, risk analysis, sensitivity analysis, solar tent drying

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Authors: Addisu H. Addis, Hugh T. Blair, Paul R. Kenyon, Stephen T. Morris, Nicola M. Schreurs, Dorian J. Garrick

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Agent-based modeling (ABM) enables an in silico representation of complex systems and cap-tures agent behavior resulting from interaction with other agents and their environment. This study developed an ABM to represent a pasture-based beef cattle finishing systems in New Zea-land (NZ) using attributes of the rearer, finisher, and processor, as well as specific attributes of dairy-origin beef cattle. The model was parameterized using values representing 1% of NZ dairy-origin cattle, and 10% of rearers and finishers in NZ. The cattle agent consisted of 32% Holstein-Friesian, 50% Holstein-Friesian–Jersey crossbred, and 8% Jersey, with the remainder being other breeds. Rearers and finishers repetitively and simultaneously interacted to determine the type and number of cattle populating the finishing system. Rearers brought in four-day-old spring-born calves and reared them until 60 calves (representing a full truck load) on average had a live weight of 100 kg before selling them on to finishers. Finishers mainly attained weaners from rearers, or directly from dairy farmers when weaner demand was higher than the supply from rearers. Fast-growing cattle were sent for slaughter before the second winter, and the re-mainder were sent before their third winter. The model finished a higher number of bulls than heifers and steers, although it was 4% lower than the industry reported value. Holstein-Friesian and Holstein-Friesian–Jersey-crossbred cattle dominated the dairy-origin beef finishing system. Jersey cattle account for less than 5% of total processed beef cattle. Further studies to include re-tailer and consumer perspectives and other decision alternatives for finishing farms would im-prove the applicability of the model for decision-making processes.

Keywords: agent-based modelling, dairy cattle, beef finishing, rearers, finishers

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Authors: Bingying Liu, Dandong Ge, Xinlan Zhang, Haoyang Liang

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Over the past two years, a new generation of No-Pile Bike sharing, represented by the Ofo, Mobike and HelloBike, has sprung up in various cities in China, and spread rapidly in countries such as Britain, Japan, the United States and Singapore. As a new green public transportation mode, bike sharing can bring a series of benefits to urban space. At first, this paper analyzes the specific impact of bike sharing on urban space in China. Based on the market research and data analyzing, it is found that bike sharing can improve the quality of urban space in three aspects: expanding the radius of public transportation service, filling service blind spots, alleviating urban traffic congestion, and enhancing the vitality of urban space. On the other hand, due to the immature market and the imperfect system, bike sharing has gradually revealed some difficulties, such as parking chaos, malicious damage, safety problems, imbalance between supply and demand, and so on. Then the paper investigates the characteristics of shared bikes, business model, operating mechanism on Chinese market currently. Finally, in order to make bike sharing serve urban construction better, this paper puts forward some specific countermeasures from four aspects. In terms of market operations, it is necessary to establish a public-private partnership model and set up a unified bike-sharing integrated management platform. From technical methods level, the paper proposes to develop an intelligent parking system for regulating parking. From policy formulation level, establishing a bike-sharing assessment mechanism would strengthen supervision. As to urban planning, sharing data and redesigning slow roadway is beneficial for transportation and spatial planning.

Keywords: bike sharing, impact analysis, improvement strategy, urban space

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Authors: Daniel O. Johnson, Abiodun A. Ogunseye, Aaron Aransiola, Majors Samuel

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Power Inverter is a very important device in renewable energy use particularly for solar photovoltaic power application because it is the effective interface between the DC power generator and the load or the grid. Transformerless inverter is getting more and more preferred to the power converter with galvanic isolation transformer and may eventually supplant it. Transformerless inverter offers advantages of improved DC to AC conversion and power delivery efficiency; and reduced system cost, weight and complexity. This work presents thorough analysis of the design and prototyping of 3KVA grid-tie transformerless inverter. The inverter employs electronic switching method with minimised heat generation in the system and operates based on the principle of pulse-width modulation (PWM). The design is such that it can take two inputs, one from PV arrays and the other from Battery Energy Storage BES and addresses the safety challenge of leakage current. The inverter system was designed around microcontroller system, modeled with Proteus® software for simulation and testing of the viability of the designed inverter circuit. The firmware governing the operation of the grid-tied inverter is written in C language and was developed using MicroC software by Mikroelectronica® for writing sine wave signal code for synchronization to the grid. The simulation results show that the designed inverter circuit performs excellently with very high efficiency, good quality sinusoidal output waveform, negligible harmonics and gives very stable performance under voltage variation from 36VDC to 60VDC input. The prototype confirmed the simulated results and was successfully synchronized with the utility supply. The comprehensive analyses of the circuit design, the prototype and explanation on overall performance will be presented.

Keywords: grid-tied inverter, leakage current, photovoltaic system, power electronic, transformerless inverter

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Authors: Eric Pla Erra, Mariana Jimenez Martinez

Abstract:

While aggregated loads at a community level tend to be easier to predict, individual household load forecasting present more challenges with higher volatility and uncertainty. Furthermore, the drastic changes that our behavior patterns have suffered due to the COVID-19 pandemic have modified our daily electrical consumption curves and, therefore, further complicated the forecasting methods used to predict short-term electric load. Load forecasting is vital for the smooth and optimized planning and operation of our electric grids, but it also plays a crucial role for individual domestic consumers that rely on a HEMS (Home Energy Management Systems) to optimize their energy usage through self-generation, storage, or smart appliances management. An accurate forecasting leads to higher energy savings and overall energy efficiency of the household when paired with a proper HEMS. In order to study how COVID-19 has affected the accuracy of forecasting methods, an evaluation of the performance of a state-of-the-art LGBM (Light Gradient Boosting Model) will be conducted during the transition between pre-pandemic and lockdowns periods, considering day-ahead electric load forecasting. LGBM improves the capabilities of standard Decision Tree models in both speed and reduction of memory consumption, but it still offers a high accuracy. Even though LGBM has complex non-linear modelling capabilities, it has proven to be a competitive method under challenging forecasting scenarios such as short series, heterogeneous series, or data patterns with minimal prior knowledge. An adaptation of the LGBM model – called “resilient LGBM” – will be also tested, incorporating a concept drift detection technique for time series analysis, with the purpose to evaluate its capabilities to improve the model’s accuracy during extreme events such as COVID-19 lockdowns. The results for the LGBM and resilient LGBM will be compared using standard RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error) as the main performance metric. The models’ performance will be evaluated over a set of real households’ hourly electricity consumption data measured before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. All households are located in the city of Barcelona, Spain, and present different consumption profiles. This study is carried out under the ComMit-20 project, financed by AGAUR (Agència de Gestiód’AjutsUniversitaris), which aims to determine the short and long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on building energy consumption, incrementing the resilience of electrical systems through the use of tools such as HEMS and artificial intelligence.

Keywords: concept drift, forecasting, home energy management system (HEMS), light gradient boosting model (LGBM)

Procedia PDF Downloads 105