Search results for: usability risk
5837 Assessing the Impact of Urbanization on Flood Risk: A Case Study
Authors: Talha Ahmed, Ishtiaq Hassan
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Urban areas or metropolitan is portrayed by the very high density of population due to the result of these economic activities. Some critical elements, such as urban expansion and climate change, are driving changes in cities with exposure to the incidence and impacts of pluvial floods. Urban communities are recurrently developed by huge spaces by which water cannot enter impermeable surfaces, such as man-made permanent surfaces and structures, which do not cause the phenomena of infiltration and percolation. Urban sprawl can result in increased run-off volumes, flood stage and flood extents during heavy rainy seasons. The flood risks require a thorough examination of all aspects affecting to severe an event in order to accurately estimate their impacts and other risk factors associated with them. For risk evaluation and its impact due to urbanization, an integrated hydrological modeling approach is used on the study area in Islamabad (Pakistan), focusing on a natural water body that has been adopted in this research. The vulnerability of the physical elements at risk in the research region is analyzed using GIS and SOBEK. The supervised classification of land use containing the images from 1980 to 2020 is used. The modeling of DEM with selected return period is used for modeling a hydrodynamic model for flood event inundation. The selected return periods are 50,75 and 100 years which are used in flood modeling. The findings of this study provided useful information on high-risk places and at-risk properties.Keywords: urbanization, flood, flood risk, GIS
Procedia PDF Downloads 1685836 Anemia and Nutritional Status as Dominant Factor of the Event Low Birth Weight in Indonesia: A Systematic Review
Authors: Lisnawati Hutagalung
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Background: Low birth weight (LBW) is one cause of newborn death. Babies with low birth weight tend to have slower cognitive development, growth retardation, more at risk of infectious disease event at risk of death. Objective: Identifying risk factors and dominant factors that influence the incidence of LBW in Indonesia. Method: This research used some database of public health such as Google Scholar, UGM journals, UI journals and UNAND journals in 2012-2015. Data were filtered using keywords ‘Risk Factors’ AND ‘Cause LBW’ with amounts 2757 study. The filtrate obtained 5 public health research that meets the criteria. Results: Risk factors associated with LBW, among other environment factors (exposure to cigarette smoke and residence), social demographics (age and socio-economic) and maternal factors (anemia, placental abnormal, nutritional status of mothers, examinations antenatal, preeclampsia, parity, and complications in pregnancy). Anemia and nutritional status become the dominant factor affecting LBW. Conclusions: The risk factors that affect LBW, most commonly found in the maternal factors. The dominant factors are a big effect on LBW is anemia and nutritional status of the mother during pregnancy.Keywords: low birth weight, anemia, nutritional status, the dominant factor
Procedia PDF Downloads 3575835 Higher Freshwater Fish and Sea Fish Intake Is Inversely Associated with Liver Cancer in Patients with Hepatitis B
Authors: Maomao Cao
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Background and aims While the association between higher consumption of fish and lower liver cancer risk has been confirmed, however, the association between specific fish intake and liver cancer risk remains unknown. We aimed to identify the association between specific fish consumption and the risk of liver cancer. Methods: Based on a community-based seropositive hepatitis B cohort involving 18404 individuals, face to face interview was conducted by a standardized questionnaire to acquire baseline information. Three common fish types in this study were analyzed, including freshwater fish, sea fish, and small fish (shrimp, crab, conch, and shell). All participants received liver cancer screening, and possible cases were identified by CT or MRI. Multivariable logistic models were applied to estimate the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Multivariate multiple imputations were utilized to impute observations with missing values. Results: 179 liver cancer cases were identified. Consumption of freshwater fish and sea fish at least once a week had a strong inverse association with liver cancer risk compared with the lowest intake level, with an adjusted OR of 0.53 (95% CI, 0.38-0.75) and 0.38 (95% CI, 0.19-0.73), respectively. This inverse association was also observed after the imputation. There was no statistically significant association between intake of small fish and liver cancer risk (OR=0.58, 95%, CI 0.32-1.08). Conclusions: Our findings suggest that consumption of freshwater fish and sea fish at least once a week could reduce liver cancer risk.Keywords: cross-sectional study, fish intake, liver cancer, risk factor
Procedia PDF Downloads 2645834 Smoking, Bullying, and Being Bullied among Secondary School Students: Their Associations with Attachment Styles
Authors: Ruziana Masiran, Hamidin Awang, Cheah Y. T. Jun, Nor Fauziah Hashim, Archana Premkumar, Mohd. Feizel Aisiddiq, Mohd. Fakharuddin
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Risk behaviours among secondary school students are common and show an increasing trend over the years. Existing attachment styles between the students and their parents influence the psychosocial development of this group of population hence contributing to the adoption of risk behaviours. The aim of this study was to determine the associations between three risk behaviours; smoking, bullying and being bullied among secondary school students and their styles of attachment to parents in a district in Malaysia. Using multistage simple random sampling, a cross-sectional study was designed with the level of significance, α set at 0.05. The validated self-administered Inventory of Parent and Peer Attachment (IPPA) and Youth Risk Behaviours Surveillance Questionnaire focusing on smoking and bullying were utilized. Secondary school students aged 13 to 17 years old from ten schools in the district of Hulu Langat, Malaysia were sampled. Prevalence of smoking was 15.8%, bullying 8.5% and being bully victims 19.0%. It was found that male gender was a significant risk factor for smoking (p < 0.001), while being Chinese (OR=0.156, 95%CI=0.029-0.837, p=0.030) and having married parents (OR=0.490, 95%CI=0.302-0.796, p=0.490) are protective against smoking. Students with insecure attachment to mothers (OR=1.650, 95%CI=1.018-2.675, p=0.042) and fathers (OR=2.039, 95%CI=1.285-3.234, p=0.002) are at 1.6 and 2 times risk respectively to smoke compared to those with secure attachment. The odds of male students bullying is almost twice than that for female students (OR=2.017, 95%CI=1.416-2.873, p < 0.001), and the odds of being bullied is 1.5 times higher for male students (OR=1.519, 95%CI=1.183-1.950, p=0.001). Those who are insecurely attached to fathers are at 1.8 times higher risk to be bullies (OR=1.867, 95%CI=1.272-2.740, p < 0.001) and 1.5 times higher risk to be bullied (OR=1.546, 95%CI=1.026-2.329, p=0.037). In conclusion, insecure attachment shows a strong association with smoking, bullying and being bullied among secondary school students in Malaysia.Keywords: attachment styles, bullied, bullying, insecure attachment, risk behaviours, smoking and attachment
Procedia PDF Downloads 3255833 The Capital Expenditure Reputation from Investor Perspective: A Signal of Better Future Performance
Authors: Juniarti, Agus Arianto Toly
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This study aims to examine the effect of capital expenditure on the investors’ responses. The respondents were companies with the best stock performance in each sector in 2017. The observation period is 2017 to 2019. Top 10 companies in each sector with the best stock performance in companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange were selected. The main variables are a growth signal which is proxied by growth in capital spending and capital expenditure, and risk and investor response, which is proxied by CAR. Financial performance as measured by ROA is a control variable in this study. The results showed that the signal of growth as measured by capital expenditures responded positively by the market, the risk moderates this influence, companies with high risk will be responded negatively by investors and vice versa. This finding corrects previous findings that only looked at the signal aspect of growth, without linking it to risk. In addition, these findings reinforce the argument that investors buy the future of the company, not a momentary financial performance. This can be seen from the absence of ROA influence on investor response. This study found that companies need to manage risk appropriately, because the risk aspect of the company is a crucial factor for investors. High risks will eliminate the benefits of strategic decisions in this case in the form of capital expenditures.Keywords: capital expenditure, growth signals, investor response, risk
Procedia PDF Downloads 1355832 A Tool for Facilitating an Institutional Risk Profile Definition
Authors: Roman Graf, Sergiu Gordea, Heather M. Ryan
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This paper presents an approach for the easy creation of an institutional risk profile for endangerment analysis of file formats. The main contribution of this work is the employment of data mining techniques to support risk factors set up with just the most important values that are important for a particular organisation. Subsequently, the risk profile employs fuzzy models and associated configurations for the file format metadata aggregator to support digital preservation experts with a semi-automatic estimation of endangerment level for file formats. Our goal is to make use of a domain expert knowledge base aggregated from a digital preservation survey in order to detect preservation risks for a particular institution. Another contribution is support for visualisation and analysis of risk factors for a requried dimension. The proposed methods improve the visibility of risk factor information and the quality of a digital preservation process. The presented approach is meant to facilitate decision making for the preservation of digital content in libraries and archives using domain expert knowledge and automatically aggregated file format metadata from linked open data sources. To facilitate decision-making, the aggregated information about the risk factors is presented as a multidimensional vector. The goal is to visualise particular dimensions of this vector for analysis by an expert. The sample risk profile calculation and the visualisation of some risk factor dimensions is presented in the evaluation section.Keywords: digital information management, file format, endangerment analysis, fuzzy models
Procedia PDF Downloads 3965831 The Moderating Role of Payment Platform Applications’ Relationship with Increasing Purchase Intention Among Customers in Kuwait - Unified Theory of Acceptance and Sustainable Use of Technology Model
Authors: Ahmad Alsaber
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This paper aims to understand the intermediary role of the payment platform applications by analyzing the various factors that can influence the desirability of utilizing said payment services in Kuwait, as well as to determine the effect of the presence of different types of payment platforms on the variables of the “Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology” (UTAUT) model. The UTAUT model's findings will provide an important understanding of the moderating role of payment platform mobile applications. This study will explore the influence of payment platform mobile applications on customer purchase intentions in Kuwait by employing a quantitative survey of 200 local customers. Questions will cover their usage of payment platforms, purchase intent, and overall satisfaction. The information gathered is then analyzed using descriptive statistics and correlation analysis in order to gain insights. The research hopes to provide greater insight into the effect of mobile payment platforms on customer purchase intentions in Kuwait. This research will provide important implications to marketers and customer service providers, informing their strategies and initiatives, as well as offer recommendations to payment platform providers on how to improve customer satisfaction and security. The study results suggest that the likelihood of a purchase is affected by performance expectancy, effort expectancy, social influence, risk, and trust. The purpose of this research is to understand the advancements in the different variables that Kuwaiti customers consider while dealing with mobile banking applications. With the implementation of stronger security measures, progressively more payment platform applications are being utilized in the Kuwaiti marketplace, making them more desirable with their accessibility and usability. With the development of the Kuwaiti digital economy, it is expected that mobile banking will have a greater impact on banking transactions and services in the future.Keywords: purchase intention, UTAUT, performance expectancy, social influence, risk, trust
Procedia PDF Downloads 1075830 Internal Audit Innovation Affects to the Firm Performance Effectiveness
Authors: Prateep Wajeetongratana
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The objective of this research is to examine the effects of internal audit innovation on firm performance effectiveness influences of financial report reliability, organizational process improvement, and risk management effectiveness. This paper drew upon the survey data collected from 400 employees survey conducted at Nonthaburi province, Thailand. The statistics utilized in this paper included percentage, mean, standard deviation, and regression analysis. The findings revealed that the majority of samples were between 31-40 years old, married, held an undergraduate degree, and had an average income between 10,000-15,000 baht. And also the results show that auditing integration has only influence on financial report reliability. Moreover, corporate risk evaluation has effect on firm performance by risk management effectiveness and control self-assessment has effect influence on firm performance by organizational process improvement and risk management effectiveness as well.Keywords: corporate risk evaluation, firm performance effectiveness, internal audit innovation, marketing management
Procedia PDF Downloads 3705829 The Effect of Behavioral and Risk Factors of Investment Growth on Stock Returns
Authors: Majid Lotfi Ghahroud, Seyed Jalal Tabatabaei, Ebrahim Karami, AmirArsalan Ghergherechi, Amir Ali Saeidi
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In this study, the relationship between investment growth and stock returns of companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange and whether their relationship -behavioral or risk factors- are discussed. Generally, there are two perspectives; risk-based approach and behavioral approach. According to the risk-based approach due to increase investment, systemic risk and consequently the stock returns are reduced. But due to the second approach, an excessive optimism or pessimism leads to assuming stock price with high investment growth in the past, higher than its intrinsic value and the price of stocks with lower investment growth, less than its intrinsic value. The investigation period is eight years from 2007 to 2014. The sample consisted of all companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. The method is a portfolio test, and the analysis is based on the t-student test (t-test). The results indicate that there is a negative relationship between investment growth and stock returns of companies and this negative correlation is stronger for firms with higher cash flow. Also, the negative relationship between asset growth and stock returns is due to behavioral factors.Keywords: behavioral theory, investment growth, risk-based theory, stock returns
Procedia PDF Downloads 1515828 A Literature Review on the Effect of Financial Knowledge toward Corporate Growth: The Important Role of Financial Risk Attitude
Authors: Risna Wijayanti, Sumiati, Hanif Iswari
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This study aims to analyze the role of financial risk attitude as a mediation between financial knowledge and business growth. The ability of human resources in managing capital (financial literacy) can be a major milestone for a company's business to grow and build its competitive advantage. This study analyzed the important role of financial risk attitude in bringing about financial knowledge on corporate growth. There have been many discussions arguing that financial knowledge is one of the main abilities of corporate managers in determining the success of managing a company. However, a contrary argument of other scholars also enlightened that financial knowledge did not have a significant influence on corporate growth. This study used literatures' review to analyze whether there is another variable that can mediate the effect of financial knowledge toward corporate growth. Research mapping was conducted to analyze the concept of risk tolerance. This concept was related to people's risk aversion effects when making a decision under risk and the role of financial knowledge on changes in financial income. Understanding and managing risks and investments are complicated, in particular for corporate managers, who are always demanded to maintain their corporate growth. Substantial financial knowledge is extremely needed to identify and take accurate information for corporate financial decision-making. By reviewing several literature, this study hypothesized that financial knowledge of corporate managers would be meaningless without manager's courage to bear risks for taking favorable business opportunities. Therefore, the level of risk aversion from corporate managers will determine corporate action, which is a reflection of corporate-level investment behavior leading to attain corporate success or failure for achieving the company's expected growth rate.Keywords: financial knowledge, financial risk attitude, corporate growth, risk tolerance
Procedia PDF Downloads 1255827 The Impact of Financial Literacy, Perception of Debt, and Perception of Risk Toward Student Willingness to Use Online Student Loan
Authors: Irni Rahmayani Johan, Ira Kamelia
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One of the impacts of the rapid advancement of technology is the rise of digital finance, including peer-to-peer lending (P2P). P2P lending has been widely marketed, including an online student loan that used the P2P platform. This study aims to analyze the effect of financial literacy, perception of debt, and perception of risk toward student willingness to use the online student loan (P2P lending). Using a cross-sectional study design, in collecting the data this study employed an online survey method, with a total sample of 280 undergraduate students of IPB university, Indonesia. This study found that financial literacy, perception of debt, perception of risk, and interest in using online student loans are categorized as low level. While the level of knowledge is found to be the lowest, the first-year students showed a higher level in terms of willingness to use the online student loan. In addition, the second year students recorded a positive perception toward debt. This study showed that level of study, attendance in personal finance course, and student’ GPA is positively related to financial knowledge. While debt perception is negatively related to financial attitudes. Similarly, the negative relationship is found between risk perception and the willingness to use the online student loan. The determinant factor of the willingness to use online student loans is the level of study, debt perception, financial risk perception, and time risk perception. Students with a higher level of study are more likely to have a lower interest in using online student loans. Moreover, students who perceived debt as a financial stimulator, as well as those with higher level of financial risk perceptions and time risk perceptions, tend to show more interest to use the loan.Keywords: financial literacy, willingness to use, online student loan, perception of risk, perception of debt
Procedia PDF Downloads 1385826 Contingency Screening Using Risk Factor Considering Transmission Line Outage
Authors: M. Marsadek, A. Mohamed
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Power system security analysis is the most time demanding process due to large number of possible contingencies that need to be analyzed. In a power system, any contingency resulting in security violation such as line overload or low voltage may occur for a number of reasons at any time. To efficiently rank a contingency, both probability and the extent of security violation must be considered so as not to underestimate the risk associated with the contingency. This paper proposed a contingency ranking method that take into account the probabilistic nature of power system and the severity of contingency by using a newly developed method based on risk factor. The proposed technique is implemented on IEEE 24-bus system.Keywords: line overload, low voltage, probability, risk factor, severity
Procedia PDF Downloads 5425825 Apricot Insurance Portfolio Risk
Authors: Kasirga Yildirak, Ismail Gur
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We propose a model to measure hail risk of an Agricultural Insurance portfolio. Hail is one of the major catastrophic event that causes big amount of loss to an insurer. Moreover, it is very hard to predict due to its strange atmospheric characteristics. We make use of parcel based claims data on apricot damage collected by the Turkish Agricultural Insurance Pool (TARSIM). As our ultimate aim is to compute the loadings assigned to specific parcels, we build a portfolio risk model that makes use of PD and the severity of the exposures. PD is computed by Spherical-Linear and Circular –Linear regression models as the data carries coordinate information and seasonality. Severity is mapped into integer brackets so that Probability Generation Function could be employed. Individual regressions are run on each clusters estimated on different criteria. Loss distribution is constructed by Panjer Recursion technique. We also show that one risk-one crop model can easily be extended to the multi risk–multi crop model by assuming conditional independency.Keywords: hail insurance, spherical regression, circular regression, spherical clustering
Procedia PDF Downloads 2475824 A Risk-Based Approach to Construction Management
Authors: Chloe E. Edwards, Yasaman Shahtaheri
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Risk management plays a fundamental role in project planning and delivery. The purpose of incorporating risk management into project management practices is to identify and address uncertainties related to key project-related activities. The uncertainties, known as risk events, can relate to project deliverables that are quantifiable and are often measured by impact to project schedule, cost, or environmental impact. Risk management should be incorporated as an iterative practice throughout the planning, execution, and commissioning phases of a project. This paper specifically examines how risk management contributes to effective project planning and delivery through a case study of a transportation project. This case study focused solely on impacts to project schedule regarding three milestones: readiness for delivery, readiness for testing and commissioning, and completion of the facility. The case study followed the ISO 31000: Risk Management – Guidelines. The key factors that are outlined by these guidelines include understanding the scope and context of the project, conducting a risk assessment including identification, analysis, and evaluation, and lastly, risk treatment through mitigation measures. This process requires continuous consultation with subject matter experts and monitoring to iteratively update the risks accordingly. The risk identification process led to a total of fourteen risks related to design, permitting, construction, and commissioning. The analysis involved running 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations through @RISK 8.0 Industrial software to determine potential milestone completion dates based on the project baseline schedule. These dates include the best case, most likely case, and worst case to provide an estimated delay for each milestone. Evaluation of these results provided insight into which risks were the highest contributors to the projected milestone completion dates. Based on the analysis results, the risk management team was able to provide recommendations for mitigation measures to reduce the likelihood of risks occurring. The risk management team also provided recommendations for managing the identified risks and project activities moving forward to meet the most likely or best-case milestone completion dates.Keywords: construction management, monte carlo simulation, project delivery, risk assessment, transportation engineering
Procedia PDF Downloads 1035823 Assessment of Mortgage Applications Using Fuzzy Logic
Authors: Swathi Sampath, V. Kalaichelvi
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The assessment of the risk posed by a borrower to a lender is one of the common problems that financial institutions have to deal with. Consumers vying for a mortgage are generally compared to each other by the use of a number called the Credit Score, which is generated by applying a mathematical algorithm to information in the applicant’s credit report. The higher the credit score, the lower the risk posed by the candidate, and the better he is to be taken on by the lender. The objective of the present work is to use fuzzy logic and linguistic rules to create a model that generates Credit Scores.Keywords: credit scoring, fuzzy logic, mortgage, risk assessment
Procedia PDF Downloads 4015822 Risk Management in Construction Projects
Authors: Mustafa Dogru, Ruveyda Komurlu
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Companies and professionals in the construction sector face various risks in every project depending on the characteristics, size, complexity, the location of the projects and the techniques used. Some risks’ effects may increase as the project progresses whereas new risks may emerge. Because of the ever-changing nature of the risks, risk management is a cyclical process that needs to be repeated throughout the project. Since the risks threaten the success of the project, risk management is an important part of the entire project management process. The aims of this study are to emphasize the importance of risk management in construction projects, summarize the risk identification process, and introduce a number of methods for preventing risks such as alternative design, checklists, prototyping and test-analysis-correction technique etc. Following the literature review conducted to list the techniques for preventing risks, case studies has been performed to compare and evaluate the success of the techniques in a number of completed projects with the same typology, performed domestic and international. Findings of the study suggest that controlling and minimizing the level of the risks in construction projects, taking optimal precautions for different risks, and mitigating or eliminating the effects of risks are important in order to prevent additional costs for the project. Additionally, focusing on the risks that have highest impact is the most rational way to minimize the effects of the risks on projects.Keywords: construction projects, construction management, project management, risk management
Procedia PDF Downloads 3055821 Comparison of Food Products Contaminated by DDTs in South Africa and Mozambique
Authors: Lesa A. Thompson, Yoshinori Ikenaka, Victor Wepener, Mayumi Ishizuka
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One method for controlling malaria in endemic regions is the killing of vector mosquitoes using pesticides such as DDT in indoor residual spraying (IRS). This study was carried out to investigate the presence of and human health risk due to DDT and its metabolites (collectively, DDTs) contaminating human food sources in areas where DDT is used for IRS. Free-range chicken products (meat and eggs) were collected from homesteads in KwaZulu-Natal Province in the northeast of South Africa, and fish meat samples from Maputo Bay in neighbouring Mozambique. Samples were analysed for DDTs (o,p’-DDT, p,p’-DDT, o,p’-DDD, p,p’-DDD, o,p’-DDE and p,p’-DDE) using a gas chromatograph with electron capture detector (GC-ECD). DDTs were detected in all food types, with the predominant congener being p,p’-DDE. The presence of p,p’-DDT confirmed recent release of DDT into the environment. By using concentration levels detected in foods and national consumption levels, the risk to human health through consumption of such food products was calculated. In order of risk level, these were: chicken eggs > chicken meat > fish meat. Human risk (carcinogenic) values greater than one suggest there is an increased health risk through consumption of these foods.Keywords: DDT, food contamination, human health risk, Mozambique, South Africa
Procedia PDF Downloads 3345820 Total Longitudinal Displacement (tLoD) of the Common Carotid Artery (CCA) Does Not Differ between Patients with Moderate or High Cardiovascular Risk (CV) and Patients after Acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI)
Authors: P. Serpytis, K. Azukaitis, U. Gargalskaite, R. Navickas, J. Badariene, V. Dzenkeviciute
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Purpose: Total longitudinal displacement (tLoD) of the common carotid artery (CCA) wall is a novel ultrasound marker of vascular function that can be evaluated using modified speckle tracking techniques. Decreased CCA tLoD has already been shown to be associated with diabetes and was shown to predict one year cardiovascular outcome in patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) . The aim of our study was to evaluate if CCA tLoD differ between patients with moderate or high cardiovascular (CV) risk and patients after recent acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Methods: 49 patients (54±6 years) with moderate or high CV risk and 42 patients (58±7 years) after recent AMI were included. All patients were non-diabetic. CCA tLoD was evaluated using GE EchoPAC speckle tracking software and expressed as mean of both sides. Data on systolic blood pressure, total and high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels, high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) level, smoking status and family history of early CV events was evaluated and assessed for association with CCA tLoD. Results: tLoD of CCA did not differ between patients with moderate or high CV risk and patients with very high CV risk after MI (0.265±0.128 mm vs. 0.237±0.103 mm, p>0.05). Lower tLoD was associated with lower HDL cholesterol levels (r=0.211, p=0.04) and male sex (0.228±0.1 vs. 0.297±0.134, p=0.01). Conclusions: tLoD of CCA did not differ between patients with moderate or high CV risk and patients with very high CV risk after AMI. However, lower CCA tLoD was significantly associated with low HDL cholesterol levels and male sex.Keywords: total longitudinal displacement, carotid artery, cardiovascular risk, acute myocardial infarction
Procedia PDF Downloads 3825819 A Development of a Conceptual Framework for Safety Culture and Safety Risk Assessment: The Case of Chinese International Construction Projects under the “New Belt and Road” Initiative in Africa
Authors: Bouba Oumarou Aboubakar, HongXia Li, Sardar Annes Farooq
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The Belt and Road Initiative’s success strongly depends on the safety of all the million workers on construction projects sites. As the new BRI is directed toward Africa and meets a completely different culture from the Chinese project managers, maintaining low risk for workers risks shall be closely related to cultural sharing and mutual understanding. This is why this work introduces a cultural-wise safety management framework for Chinese Construction projects in Africa. The theoretical contribution of this paper is an improved risk assessment framework that integrates language, culture and difficulty of controlling risk factors into one approach. Practically, this study provides not only a useful tool for project safety management practitioners but the full understanding of all risks that may arise in the BRI projects in Africa.Keywords: cultural-wise, safety culture, risk assessment, Chinese construction, BRI projects, Africa
Procedia PDF Downloads 865818 Correlation between Seismic Risk Insurance Indexes and Uninhabitability Indexes of Buildings in Morocco
Authors: Nabil Mekaoui, Nacer Jabour, Abdelhamid Allaoui, Abderahim Oulidi
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The reliability of several insurance indexes of the seismic risk is evaluated and compared for an efficient seismic risk coverage of buildings in Morocco, thus, reducing the basic risk. A large database of earthquake ground motions is established from recent seismic events in Morocco and synthetic ground motions compatible with the design spectrum in order to conduct nonlinear time history analyses on three building models representative of the building stock in Morocco. The uninhabitability index is evaluated based on the simulated damage index, then correlated with preselected insurance indexes. Interestingly, the commonly used peak ground acceleration index showed poor correlation when compared with other indexes, such as spectral accelerations at low periods. Recommendations on the choice of suitable insurance indexes are formulated for efficient seismic risk coverage in Morocco.Keywords: catastrophe modeling, damage, earthquake, reinsurance, seismic hazard, trigger index, vulnerability
Procedia PDF Downloads 625817 A Deep-Learning Based Prediction of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma with Electronic Health Records from the State of Maine
Authors: Xiaodong Li, Peng Gao, Chao-Jung Huang, Shiying Hao, Xuefeng B. Ling, Yongxia Han, Yaqi Zhang, Le Zheng, Chengyin Ye, Modi Liu, Minjie Xia, Changlin Fu, Bo Jin, Karl G. Sylvester, Eric Widen
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Predicting the risk of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma (PA) in advance can benefit the quality of care and potentially reduce population mortality and morbidity. The aim of this study was to develop and prospectively validate a risk prediction model to identify patients at risk of new incident PA as early as 3 months before the onset of PA in a statewide, general population in Maine. The PA prediction model was developed using Deep Neural Networks, a deep learning algorithm, with a 2-year electronic-health-record (EHR) cohort. Prospective results showed that our model identified 54.35% of all inpatient episodes of PA, and 91.20% of all PA that required subsequent chemoradiotherapy, with a lead-time of up to 3 months and a true alert of 67.62%. The risk assessment tool has attained an improved discriminative ability. It can be immediately deployed to the health system to provide automatic early warnings to adults at risk of PA. It has potential to identify personalized risk factors to facilitate customized PA interventions.Keywords: cancer prediction, deep learning, electronic health records, pancreatic adenocarcinoma
Procedia PDF Downloads 1505816 Mitigating Supply Chain Risk for Sustainability Using Big Data Knowledge: Evidence from the Manufacturing Supply Chain
Authors: Mani Venkatesh, Catarina Delgado, Purvishkumar Patel
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The sustainable supply chain is gaining popularity among practitioners because of increased environmental degradation and stakeholder awareness. On the other hand supply chain, risk management is very crucial for the practitioners as it potentially disrupts supply chain operations. Prediction and addressing the risk caused by social issues in the supply chain is paramount importance to the sustainable enterprise. More recently, the usage of Big data analytics for forecasting business trends has been gaining momentum among professionals. The aim of the research is to explore the application of big data, predictive analytics in successfully mitigating supply chain social risk and demonstrate how such mitigation can help in achieving sustainability (environmental, economic & social). The method involves the identification and validation of social issues in the supply chain by an expert panel and survey. Later, we used a case study to illustrate the application of big data in the successful identification and mitigation of social issues in the supply chain. Our result shows that the company can predict various social issues through big data, predictive analytics and mitigate the social risk. We also discuss the implication of this research to the body of knowledge and practice.Keywords: big data, sustainability, supply chain social sustainability, social risk, case study
Procedia PDF Downloads 4015815 Streamlining the Fuzzy Front-End and Improving the Usability of the Tools Involved
Authors: Michael N. O'Sullivan, Con Sheahan
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Researchers have spent decades developing tools and techniques to aid teams in the new product development (NPD) process. Despite this, it is evident that there is a huge gap between their academic prevalence and their industry adoption. For the fuzzy front-end, in particular, there is a wide range of tools to choose from, including the Kano Model, the House of Quality, and many others. In fact, there are so many tools that it can often be difficult for teams to know which ones to use and how they interact with one another. Moreover, while the benefits of using these tools are obvious to industrialists, they are rarely used as they carry a learning curve that is too steep and they become too complex to manage over time. In essence, it is commonly believed that they are simply not worth the effort required to learn and use them. This research explores a streamlined process for the fuzzy front-end, assembling the most effective tools and making them accessible to everyone. The process was developed iteratively over the course of 3 years, following over 80 final year NPD teams from engineering, design, technology, and construction as they carried a product from concept through to production specification. Questionnaires, focus groups, and observations were used to understand the usability issues with the tools involved, and a human-centred design approach was adopted to produce a solution to these issues. The solution takes the form of physical toolkit, similar to a board game, which allows the team to play through an example of a new product development in order to understand the process and the tools, before using it for their own product development efforts. A complimentary website is used to enhance the physical toolkit, and it provides more examples of the tools being used, as well as deeper discussions on each of the topics, allowing teams to adapt the process to their skills, preferences and product type. Teams found the solution very useful and intuitive and experienced significantly less confusion and mistakes with the process than teams who did not use it. Those with a design background found it especially useful for the engineering principles like Quality Function Deployment, while those with an engineering or technology background found it especially useful for design and customer requirements acquisition principles, like Voice of the Customer. Products developed using the toolkit are added to the website as more examples of how it can be used, creating a loop which helps future teams understand how the toolkit can be adapted to their project, whether it be a small consumer product or a large B2B service. The toolkit unlocks the potential of these beneficial tools to those in industry, both for large, experienced teams and for inexperienced start-ups. It allows users to assess the market potential of their product concept faster and more effectively, arriving at the product design stage with technical requirements prioritized according to their customers’ needs and wants.Keywords: new product development, fuzzy front-end, usability, Kano model, quality function deployment, voice of customer
Procedia PDF Downloads 1065814 Planning Strategies for Urban Flood Mitigation through Different Case Studies of Best Practices across the World
Authors: Bismina Akbar, Smitha M. V.
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Flooding is a global phenomenon that causes widespread devastation, economic damage, and loss of human lives. In the past twenty years, the number of reported flood events has increased significantly. Millions of people around the globe are at risk of flooding from coastal, dam breaks, groundwater, and urban surface water and wastewater sources. Climate change is one of the important causes for them since it affects, directly and indirectly, the river network. Although the contribution of climate change is undeniable, human contributions are there to increase the frequency of floods. There are different types of floods, such as Flash floods, Coastal floods, Urban floods, River (or fluvial) floods, and Ponding (or pluvial flooding). This study focuses on formulating mitigation strategies for urban flood risk reduction through analysis of different best practice case studies, including China, Japan, Indonesia, and Brazil. The mitigation measures suggest that apart from the structural and non-structural measures, environmental considerations like blue-green solutions are beneficial for flood risk reduction. And also, Risk-Informed Master plans are essential nowadays to take risk-based decision processes that enable more sustainability and resilience.Keywords: hazard, mitigation, risk reduction, urban flood
Procedia PDF Downloads 705813 Infection Risk of Fecal Coliform Contamination in Drinking Water Sources of Urban Slum Dwellers: Application of Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment
Authors: Sri Yusnita Irda Sari, Deni Kurniadi Sunjaya, Ardini Saptaningsih Raksanagara
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Water is one of the fundamental basic needs for human life, particularly drinking water sources. Although water quality is getting better, fecal-contamination of water is still found around the world, especially in the slum area of mid-low income countries. Drinking water source contamination in urban slum dwellers increases the risk of water borne diseases. Low level of sanitation and poor drinking water supply known as risk factors for diarrhea, moreover bacteria-contaminated drinking water source is the main cause of diarrhea in developing countries. This study aimed to assess risk infection due to Fecal Coliform contamination in various drinking water sources in urban area by applying Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA). A Cross-sectional survey was conducted in a period of August to October 2015. Water samples were taken by simple random sampling from households in Cikapundung river basin which was one of urban slum area in the center of Bandung city, Indonesia. About 379 water samples from 199 households and 15 common wells were tested. Half of the households used treated drinking water from water gallon mostly refill water gallon which was produced in drinking water refill station. Others used raw water sources which need treatment before consume as drinking water such as tap water, borehole, dug well and spring water source. Annual risk to get infection due to Fecal Coliform contamination from highest to lowest risk was dug well (1127.9 x 10-5), spring water (49.7 x 10-5), borehole (1.383 x 10-5) and tap water (1.121 x 10-5). Annual risk infection of refill drinking water was 1.577 x 10-5 which is comparable to borehole and tap water. Household water treatment and storage to make raw water sources drinkable is essential to prevent risk of water borne diseases. Strong regulation and intense monitoring of refill water gallon quality should be prioritized by the government; moreover, distribution of tap water should be more accessible and affordable especially in urban slum area.Keywords: drinking water, quantitative microbiological risk assessment, slum, urban
Procedia PDF Downloads 2735812 Development of a Fuzzy Logic Based Model for Monitoring Child Pornography
Authors: Mariam Ismail, Kazeem Rufai, Jeremiah Balogun
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A study was conducted to apply fuzzy logic to the development of a monitoring model for child pornography based on associated risk factors, which can be used by forensic experts or integrated into forensic systems for the early detection of child pornographic activities. A number of methods were adopted in the study, which includes an extensive review of related works was done in order to identify the factors that are associated with child pornography following which they were validated by an expert sex psychologist and guidance counselor, and relevant data was collected. Fuzzy membership functions were used to fuzzify the associated variables identified alongside the risk of the occurrence of child pornography based on the inference rules that were provided by the experts consulted, and the fuzzy logic expert system was simulated using the Fuzzy Logic Toolbox available in the MATLAB Software Release 2016. The results of the study showed that there were 4 categories of risk factors required for assessing the risk of a suspect committing child pornography offenses. The results of the study showed that 2 and 3 triangular membership functions were used to formulate the risk factors based on the 2 and 3 number of labels assigned, respectively. The results of the study showed that 5 fuzzy logic models were formulated such that the first 4 was used to assess the impact of each category on child pornography while the last one takes the 4 outputs from the 4 fuzzy logic models as inputs required for assessing the risk of child pornography. The following conclusion was made; there were factors that were related to personal traits, social traits, history of child pornography crimes, and self-regulatory deficiency traits by the suspects required for the assessment of the risk of child pornography crimes committed by a suspect. Using the values of the identified risk factors selected for this study, the risk of child pornography can be easily assessed from their values in order to determine the likelihood of a suspect perpetuating the crime.Keywords: fuzzy, membership functions, pornography, risk factors
Procedia PDF Downloads 1225811 Evaluation of a Risk Assessment Method for Fiber Emissions from Sprayed Asbestos-Containing Materials
Authors: Yukinori Fuse, Masato Kawaguchi
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A quantitative risk assessment method was developed for fiber emissions from sprayed asbestos-containing materials (ACMs). In Japan, instead of being quantitative, these risk assessments have relied on the subjective judgment of skilled engineers, which may vary from one person to another. Therefore, this closed sampling method aims at avoiding any potential variability between assessments. This method was used to assess emissions from ACM sprayed in eleven buildings and the obtained results were compared with the subjective judgments of a skilled engineer. An approximate correlation tendency was found between both approaches. In spite of existing uncertainties, the closed sampling method is useful for public health protection. We firmly believe that this method may find application in the management and renovation decisions of buildings using friable and sprayed ACM.Keywords: asbestos, renovation, risk assessment, maintenance
Procedia PDF Downloads 3735810 Foodborne Disease Risk Factors Among Women in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Authors: Abdullah Alsayeqh
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The burden of foodborne diseases in Saudi Arabia is currently unknown. The objective of this study was to identify risk factors associated with these diseases among women in Riyadh. A cross-sectional study was carried out from March to July, 2013 where participants’ responses indicated that they were at risk of these diseases through improper food-holding temperature (45.28%), inadequate cooking (35.47%), cross-contamination (32.23%), and food from unsafe sources (22.39%). The claimed food safety knowledge by 22.04% of participants was not evidenced by their reported behaviors (p > 0.05). This is the first study to identify the gap in food safety knowledge among women in Riyadh which needs to be addressed by the concerned authorities in the country by engaging women more effectively in food safety educational campaigns.Keywords: foodborne diseases, risk factors, knowledge, women, Saudi Arabia
Procedia PDF Downloads 5005809 Risk and Uncertainty in Aviation: A Thorough Analysis of System Vulnerabilities
Authors: C. V. Pietreanu, S. E. Zaharia, C. Dinu
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Hazard assessment and risks quantification are key components for estimating the impact of existing regulations. But since regulatory compliance cannot cover all risks in aviation, the authors point out that by studying causal factors and eliminating uncertainty, an accurate analysis can be outlined. The research debuts by making delimitations on notions, as confusion on the terms over time has reflected in less rigorous analysis. Throughout this paper, it will be emphasized the fact that the variation in human performance and organizational factors represent the biggest threat from an operational perspective. Therefore, advanced risk assessment methods analyzed by the authors aim to understand vulnerabilities of the system given by a nonlinear behavior. Ultimately, the mathematical modeling of existing hazards and risks by eliminating uncertainty implies establishing an optimal solution (i.e. risk minimization).Keywords: control, human factor, optimization, risk management, uncertainty
Procedia PDF Downloads 2445808 The Impact of Structural Empowerment on Risk Management Practices: A Case Study of Saudi Arabia Construction Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises
Authors: S. Alyami, S. Mohammad
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These Risk management practices have a significant impact on construction SMEs. The effective utilisation of these practices depends on culture change in order to optimise decision making for critical activities within construction projects. Thus, successful implementation of empowerment strategies would enhance operational employees to participate in effective decision making. However, there remain many barriers to individuals and organisations within empowerment strategies that require empirical investigation before the industry can benefit from their implementation. Gaps in understanding the relationship between employee empowerment and risk management practices still exist. This research paper aims to examine the impact of the structural empowerment on risk management practices in construction SMEs. The questionnaire has been distributed to participants (162 employees) that involve projects and civil engineers within a case study from Saudi construction SMEs. Partial least squares based structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) was utilised to perform analysis. The results reveal a positive relationship between empowerment and risk management practices. The study shows how structural empowerment contributes to operational employees in risk management practices through involving activities such as decision making, self-efficiency, and autonomy. The findings of this study will contribute to close the current gaps in the construction SMEs context.Keywords: construction SMEs, culture, decision making, empowerment, risk management
Procedia PDF Downloads 110