Search results for: production forecasting

Authors: Patience Orobosa Olajide

Abstract:

Five hydrocarbon degrading bacterial strains isolated from contaminated environment were investigated with respect to polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB) biosynthesis. Screening for bioplastic production was done on assay mineral salts agar medium containing 0.2% poly (3-hydroxybutyrate) as the sole carbon source. Two of the test bacteria were positive for PHB biosynthesis and were identified based on gram staining, biochemical tests, 16S rRNA gene sequence analysis as Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Bacillus licheniformis which grew at 37 and up to 65 °C respectively, thus suggesting the later to be thermotolerant. In this study, the effects of different carbon and nitrogen sources on PHB production in these strains were investigated. Maximum PHB production was obtained in 48 hr for the two strains and amounted to yields of 72.86 and 62.22 percentages for Bacillus licheniformis and Pseudomonas aeruginosa respectively. In these strains, glycine was the most efficient carbon sources for the production of PHB compared with other carbon (glucose, lactose, sucrose, Arabinose) and nitrogen (L- glycine, L-cysteine, DL-Tryptophan, and Potassium Nitrate) sources. The screening of microbial strains for industrial PHB production should be based on several factors including the cell’s capability to mineralize an inexpensive substrate, rate of growth and the extent of polymer accumulation.

Keywords: bacteria, poly-3-hydroxybutyrate (PHB), hydrocarbon, thermotolerant

Procedia PDF Downloads 198

Authors: Ibrahim Aliyu Isaha, Mohd Mansor Ismailb , Salim Hassanc, Norsida Bint Man

Abstract:

The Global and National income derive from a stingless beekeeping project is a new source of wealth to Malaysia. A common stingless bee species, Trigona itama, potential production through effective utilization of highly competent agents of extension services will lead to higher output that guaranteed maximum income. The study covers a sample beekeepers in ten states and it was designed to examine various impacts of extension services as variables in enhancing sustainable stingless beekeeping production. In addition, the study also determined the profitability of stingless beekeeping production through technology transfer and human resource development. Correlation and Regression analyses were used on a sample size of 87 stingless beekeepers representing 72% of filled questionnaires. The cost-benefit analysis showed participants received lucrative monthly income of more than rm3500. The results indicated positive outcome from extension services that increased production, and hence, generated better additional income to participants. In summary, it is possible for the extension services to increase output of stingless beekeeping through technology transfer

Keywords: extension services, malaysia, profitability, stingless bee, trigona itama production

Procedia PDF Downloads 63

Authors: Lukas Reznak, Maria Reznakova

Abstract:

Recession of an economy has a profound negative effect on all involved stakeholders. It follows that timely prediction of recessions has been of utmost interest both in the theoretical research and in practical macroeconomic modelling. Current mainstream of recession prediction is based on standard OLS models of continuous GDP using macroeconomic data. This approach is not suitable for two reasons: the standard continuous models are proving to be obsolete and the macroeconomic data are unreliable, often revised many years retroactively. The aim of the paper is to explore a different branch of recession forecasting research theory and verify the findings on real data of the Czech Republic and Germany. In the paper, the authors present a family of discrete choice probit models with parameters estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. In the basic form, the probits model a univariate series of recessions and expansions in the economic cycle for a given country. The majority of the paper deals with more complex model structures, namely dynamic and bivariate extensions. The dynamic structure models the autoregressive nature of recessions, taking into consideration previous economic activity to predict the development in subsequent periods. Bivariate extensions utilize information from a foreign economy by incorporating correlation of error terms and thus modelling the dependencies of the two countries. Bivariate models predict a bivariate time series of economic states in both economies and thus enhance the predictive performance. A vital enabler of timely and successful recession forecasting are reliable and readily available data. Leading indicators, namely the yield curve and the stock market indices, represent an ideal data base, as the pieces of information is available in advance and do not undergo any retroactive revisions. As importantly, the combination of yield curve and stock market indices reflect a range of macroeconomic and financial market investors’ trends which influence the economic cycle. These theoretical approaches are applied on real data of Czech Republic and Germany. Two models for each country were identified – each for in-sample and out-of-sample predictive purposes. All four followed a bivariate structure, while three contained a dynamic component.

Keywords: bivariate probit, leading indicators, recession forecasting, Czech Republic, Germany

Procedia PDF Downloads 247

Authors: Thabo M. Bafitlhile, Adewole Oladele

Abstract:

Botswana has been affected by floods since long ago and is still experiencing this tragic event. Flooding occurs mostly in the North-West, North-East, and parts of Central district due to heavy rainfalls experienced in these areas. The torrential rains destroyed homes, roads, flooded dams, fields and destroyed livestock and livelihoods. Palapye is one area in the central district that has been experiencing floods ever since 1995 when its greatest flood on record occurred. Heavy storms result in floods and inundation; this has been exacerbated by poor and absence of drainage structures. Since floods are a part of nature, they have existed and will to continue to exist, hence more destruction. Furthermore floods and highway plays major role in erosion and destruction of roads structures. Already today, many culverts, trenches, and other drainage facilities lack the capacity to deal with current frequency for extreme flows. Future changes in the pattern of hydro climatic events will have implications for the design and maintenance costs of roads. Increase in rainfall and severe weather events can affect the demand for emergent responses. Therefore flood forecasting and warning is a prerequisite for successful mitigation of flood damage. In flood prone areas like Palapye, preventive measures should be taken to reduce possible adverse effects of floods on the environment including road structures. Therefore this paper attempts to estimate return periods associated with huge storms of different magnitude from recorded historical rainfall depth using statistical method. The method of annual maxima was used to select data sets for the rainfall analysis. In the statistical method, the Type 1 extreme value (Gumbel), Log Normal, Log Pearson 3 distributions were all applied to the annual maximum series for Palapye area to produce IDF curves. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Chi Squared were used to confirm the appropriateness of fitted distributions for the location and the data do fit the distributions used to predict expected frequencies. This will be a beneficial tool for urgent flood forecasting and water resource administration as proper drainage design will be design based on the estimated flood events and will help to reclaim and protect the road structures from adverse impacts of flood.

Keywords: drainage, estimate, evaluation, floods, flood forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 371

Authors: Lakhoua Najeh

Abstract:

Aims of the work: The aim of this paper is to improve the reliability and the availability of a Packer production line of cigarettes based on two methods: The SADT method (Structured Analysis Design Technique) and the FMECA approach (Failure Mode Effects and Critically Analysis). The first method enables us to describe the functionality of the Packer production line of cigarettes and the second method enables us to establish an FMECA analysis. Methods: The methodology adopted in order to contribute to the improvement of the reliability and the availability of a Packer production line of cigarettes has been proposed in this paper, and it is based on the use of Structured Analysis Design Technique (SADT) and Failure mode, effects, and criticality analysis (FMECA) methods. This methodology consists of using a diagnosis of the existing of all of the equipment of a production line of a factory in order to determine the most critical machine. In fact, we use, on the one hand, a functional analysis based on the SADT method of the production line and on the other hand, a diagnosis and classification of mechanical and electrical failures of the line production by their criticality analysis based on the FMECA approach. Results: Based on the methodology adopted in this paper, the results are the creation and the launch of a preventive maintenance plan. They contain the different elements of a Packer production line of cigarettes; the list of the intervention preventive activities and their period of realization. Conclusion: The diagnosis of the existing state helped us to found that the machine of cigarettes used in the Packer production line of cigarettes is the most critical machine in the factory. Then this enables us in the one hand, to describe the functionality of the production line of cigarettes by SADT method and on the other hand, to study the FMECA machine in order to improve the availability and the performance of this machine.

Keywords: production system, diagnosis, SADT method, FMECA method

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: Hamed Saremi, Suzan Taghavy, Shahla Saremi

Abstract:

In today's competitive world, organizations are expected to surpass the competitors and benefit from the resources and benefits. Therefore, organizations need to improve the current performance is felt more than ever that this requires to identify organizational optimal strategies, and consider all strategies simultaneously. In this study, to enhance competitive advantage and according to customer requirements, alignment between business, production and marketing strategies, House of Quality (QFD) approach has been used and zero-one linear programming model has been studied. First, the alignment between production and marketing strategies with business strategy, independent weights of these strategies is calculated. Then with using QFD approach the aligned weights of optimal strategies in each production and marketing field will be obtained and finally the aligned marketing strategies selection with the purpose of allocating budget and specialist human resource to marketing functions will be done that lead to increasing competitive advantage and benefit.

Keywords: strategy alignment, house of quality deployment, production strategy, marketing strategy, business strategy

Procedia PDF Downloads 435

Authors: Michelle Zeyuan Ma, Hermann Heilmeier

Abstract:

Recently, meat production ecosystem impacts initiated many hot discussions and researchers, and it is a difficult implementation to reduce such impacts due to the demand of meat products. It calls for better management and control of ecosystem impacts from every aspects of meat production. This article analyzes the ecosystem impacts of meat production based on meat products life cycle. The analysis shows that considerable ecosystem impacts are caused by different meat production steps: initial establishment phase, animal raising, slaughterhouse processing, meat consumption, and wastes management. Based on this analysis, the impacts are summarized as: leading factor for biodiversity loss; water waste, land use waste and land degradation; greenhouse gases emissions; pollution to air, water, and soil; related major diseases. The article also provides a discussion on a solution-sustainable food system, which could help in reducing ecosystem impacts. The analysis method is based on the life cycle level, it provides a concept of the whole meat industry ecosystem impacts, and the analysis result could be useful to manage or control meat production ecosystem impacts from investor, producer and consumer sides.

Keywords: eutrophication, life cycle based analysis, sustainable food, waste management

Procedia PDF Downloads 220

Authors: Justyna Rybicka, Ashutosh Tiwari, Shane Enticott

Abstract:

In the age of automation and computation aiding manufacturing, it is clear that manufacturing systems have become more complex than ever before. Although technological advances provide the capability to gain more value with fewer resources, sometimes utilisation of the manufacturing capabilities available to organisations is difficult to achieve. Flexible manufacturing systems (FMS) provide a unique capability to manufacturing organisations where there is a need for product range diversification by providing line efficiency through production flexibility. This is very valuable in trend driven production set-ups or niche volume production requirements. Although FMS provides flexible and efficient facilities, its optimal set-up is key in achieving production performance. As many variables are interlinked due to the flexibility provided by the FMS, analytical calculations are not always sufficient to predict the FMS’ performance. Simulation modelling is capable of capturing the complexity and constraints associated with FMS. This paper demonstrates how discrete event simulation (DES) can address complexity in an FMS to optimise the production line performance. A case study of an automotive FMS is presented. The DES model demonstrates different configuration options depending on prioritising objectives: utilisation and throughput. Additionally, this paper provides insight into understanding the impact of system set-up constraints on the FMS performance and demonstrates the exploration into the optimal production set-up.

Keywords: discrete event simulation, flexible manufacturing system, capacity performance, automotive

Procedia PDF Downloads 327

Authors: Sergio Perez Rodriguez

Abstract:

Coltan Artisanal and Small-Scale Mining (ASM) production from Africa's Great Lakes region has previously been addressed at large scales, notably from regional to country levels. The current findings address the unresolved issue of a production model of ASM of coltan ore by an average Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) mineworker, which can be used as a reference for a similar characterization of the daily labor of counterparts from other countries in the region. To that end, the Fundamental Equation of Mineral Production has been applied, considering a miner's average daily output of coltan, estimated in the base of gross statistical data gathered from reputable sources. Results indicate daily yields of individual miners in the order of 300 g of coltan ore, with hourly peaks of production in the range of 30 to 40 g of the mineral. Yields are expected to be in the order of 5 g or less during the least productive hours. These outputs are expected to be achieved during the halves of the eight to ten hours of daily working sessions that these artisanal laborers can attend during the mining season.

Keywords: coltan, mineral production, production to reserve ratio, artisanal mining, small-scale mining, ASM, human work, Great Lakes region, Democratic Republic of Congo

Procedia PDF Downloads 76

Authors: Md Imtiaz, Sanchita Dei, Shubham Damke

Abstract:

In recent years, there has been a rapidly accelerating shift from traditional surface processing operations to subsea processing operation. This shift has been driven by a number of factors including the depletion of shallow fields around the world, technological advances in subsea processing equipment, the need for production from marginal fields, and lower initial upfront investment costs compared to traditional production facilities. Moving production facilities to the seafloor offers a number of advantage, including a reduction in field development costs, increased production rates from subsea wells, reduction in the need for chemical injection, minimization of risks to worker ,reduction in spills due to hurricane damage, and increased in oil production by enabling production from marginal fields. Subsea processing consists of a range of technologies for separation, pumping, compression that enables production from offshore well without the need for surface facilities. At present, there are two primary technologies being used for subsea processing: subsea multiphase pumping and subsea separation. Multiphase pumping is the most basic subsea processing technology. Multiphase pumping involves the use of boosting system to transport the multiphase mixture through pipelines to floating production vessels. The separation system is combined with single phase pumps or water would be removed and either pumped to the surface, re-injected, or discharged to the sea. Subsea processing can allow for an entire topside facility to be decommissioned and the processed fluids to be tied back to a new, more distant, host. This type of application reduces costs and increased both overall facility and integrity and recoverable reserve. In future, full subsea processing could be possible, thereby eliminating the need for surface facilities.

Keywords: FPSO, marginal field, Subsea processing, SWAG

Procedia PDF Downloads 413

Authors: Philip Vercoe, Ali Hardan

Abstract:

Samples of 29 Australian wild natives and exotic plants were tested in vitro batch rumen culture system for their methanogenic characteristics and potential usage as feed or antimicrobial to enhance sustainable livestock ruminant production system. The plants were tested for their in vitro rumen fermentation end products properties which include: methane production, total gas pressure, concentrations of total volatile fatty acids, ammonia, and acetate to propionate ratio. All of the plants were produced less methane than the positive control (i.e., oaten chaff) in vitro. Nearly 50 % of plants inhibiting methane by over 50% in comparison to the control. Eremophila granitica had the strongest inhibitory effect about 92 % on methane production comparing with oaten chaff. The exotic weed Arctotheca calendula (Capeweed) had the highest concentration of volatile fatty acids production as well as the highest in total gas pressure among all plants and the control. Some of the acacia species have the lowest production of total gas pressure. The majority of the plants produced more ammonia than the oaten chaff control. The plant species that produced the most ammonia was Codonocarpus cotinifolius, producing over 3 times as much methane as oaten chaff control while the lowest was Eremophila galeata. There was strong positive correlation between methane production and total gas production as well as between total gas production and the concentration of VFA produced with R² = 0.74, R² = 0.84, respectively. While there was weak positive correlation between methane production and the acetate to propionate ratio as well as between the concentration of VFA produced and methane production with R² = 0.41, R² = 0.52, respectively.

Keywords: in vitro Rumen Fermentation, methane, wild Australian native plants, forages

Procedia PDF Downloads 344

Authors: O. Kahraman, M. S. Alatas, O. B. Citil

Abstract:

In determination of values of feeds which, are used in ruminant nutrition, different methods are used like in vivo, in vitro, in situ or in sacco. Generally, the most reliable results are taken from the in vivo studies. But because of the disadvantages like being hard, laborious and expensive, time consuming, being hard to keep the experiment conditions under control and too much samples are needed, the in vitro techniques are more preferred. The most widely used in vitro techniques are two-staged digestion technique and gas production technique. In vitro gas production technique is based on the measurement of the CO2 which is released as a result of microbial fermentation of the feeds. In this review, the factors affecting the results obtained from in vitro gas production technique (Hohenheim Feed Test) were discussed. Some factors must be taken into consideration when interpreting the findings obtained in these studies and also comparing the findings reported by different researchers for the same feeds. These factors were discussed in 3 groups: factors related to animal, factors related to feeds and factors related with differences in the application of method. These factors and their effects on the results were explained. Also it can be concluded that the use of in vitro gas production technique in feed evaluation routinely can be contributed to the comprehensive feed evaluation, but standardization is needed in this technique to attain more reliable results.

Keywords: In vitro, gas production technique, Hohenheim feed test, standardization

Procedia PDF Downloads 599

Authors: Sandija Zeverte-Rivza, Irina Pilvere, Baiba Rivza

Abstract:

The use of renewable energy sources incl. biogas has become topical in accordance with the increasing demand for energy, decrease of fossil energy resources and the efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as well as to increase energy independence from the territories where fossil energy resources are available. As the technologies of biogas production from agricultural biomass develop, risk assessment and risk management become necessary for farms producing such a renewable energy. The need for risk assessments has become particularly topical when discussions on changing the biogas policy in the EU take place, which may influence the development of the sector in the future, as well as the operation of existing biogas facilities and their income level. The current article describes results of the risk assessment for farms producing biomass from agriculture biomass in Latvia, the risk assessment system included 24 risks, that affect the whole biogas production process and the obtained results showed the high significance of political and production risks.

Keywords: biogas production, risks, risk assessment, biosystems engineering

Procedia PDF Downloads 415

Authors: Yoftahe Nigussie Worku

Abstract:

This research focuses on advancing fire tube boiler technology by systematically optimizing design parameters to achieve efficient saturated steam production. The main objective is to design a high-performance boiler with a production capacity of 2000kg/h at a 12-bar design pressure while minimizing costs. The methodology employs iterative analysis, utilizing relevant formulas, and considers material selection and production methods. The study successfully results in a boiler operating at 85.25% efficiency, with a fuel consumption rate of 140.37kg/hr and a heat output of 1610kW. Theoretical importance lies in balancing efficiency, safety considerations, and cost minimization. The research addresses key questions on parameter optimization, material choices, and safety-efficiency balance, contributing valuable insights to fire tube boiler design.

Keywords: safety consideration, efficiency, production methods, material selection

Procedia PDF Downloads 66

Authors: Randa Ismail Sharafeddine

Abstract:

The Islamic economic system is distinctive in that it implicitly recognizes money as a separate, independent component of production capable of assuming risk and so entitled to the same reward as other Entrepreneurial Factors of Production (EFP). Conventional theory does not identify money capital explicitly as a component of production; rather, interest is recognized as a reward for capital, the interest rate is the cost of money capital, and it is also seen as a cost of physical capital. The conventional theory of production examines how diverse non-entrepreneurial resources (Land, Labor, and Capital) are selected; however, the economic theory community is largely unaware of the reasons why these resources choose to remain as non-entrepreneurial resources as opposed to becoming entrepreneurial resources. Should land, labor, and financial asset owners choose to work for others in return for rent, income, or interest, or should they engage in entrepreneurial risk-taking in order to profit. This is a decision made often in the actual world, but it has never been effectively treated in economic theory. This article will conduct a critical analysis of the conventional classification of factors of production and propose a classification for resource allocation and income distribution (Rent, Wages, Interest, and Profits) that is more rational, even within the conventional theoretical framework for evaluating and developing production and distribution theories. Money is an essential component of production in an Islamic economy, and it must be used to sustain economic activity.

Keywords: financial capital, production theory, distribution theory, economic activity, riba avoidance, institution of participation

Procedia PDF Downloads 91

Authors: Mahmut Genc, Seda Genc

Abstract:

Wine is the most popular alcoholic drink in the World with 274.4 million of hectoliter annual production in the year of 2015. The wine industry is very important for some regions as well as creating significant value in their economies. This industry is very sensitive to the global warming since viticulture highly depends on climate and geographical region. Sustainability concept is a crucial issue for the wine industry and sustainability performances of wine production processes should be determined. Although wine production industry is an energy intensive sector as a whole, the most energy intensive products are widely used both in the viti and vinicultural process. In this study, gate-to-gate LCA approach in energy resource utilization and global warming potential impacts for white wine production line were attempted and carbon footprint and exergy destruction footprint were calculated, accordingly. As a result, carbon footprint and exergy destruction footprint values were calculated to be 1.75 kg CO2eq and 365.3kW, respectively.

Keywords: carbon footprint, exergy analysis, exergy destruction footprint, white wine

Procedia PDF Downloads 271

Authors: M. Zayoud, S. Oueida, S. Ionescu, P. AbiChar

Abstract:

Background: Wireless sensor network is encompassed of diversified tools of information technology, which is widely applied in a range of domains, including military surveillance, weather forecasting, and earthquake forecasting. Strengthened grounds are always developed for wireless sensor networks, which usually emerges security issues during professional application. Thus, essential technological tools are necessary to be assessed for secure aggregation of data. Moreover, such practices have to be incorporated in the healthcare practices that shall be serving in the best of the mutual interest Objective: Aggregation of encrypted data has been assessed through homomorphic stream cipher to assure its effectiveness along with providing the optimum solutions to the field of healthcare. Methods: An experimental design has been incorporated, which utilized newly developed cipher along with CPU-constrained devices. Modular additions have also been employed to evaluate the nature of aggregated data. The processes of homomorphic stream cipher have been highlighted through different sensors and modular additions. Results: Homomorphic stream cipher has been recognized as simple and secure process, which has allowed efficient aggregation of encrypted data. In addition, the application has led its way to the improvisation of the healthcare practices. Statistical values can be easily computed through the aggregation on the basis of selected cipher. Sensed data in accordance with variance, mean, and standard deviation has also been computed through the selected tool. Conclusion: It can be concluded that homomorphic stream cipher can be an ideal tool for appropriate aggregation of data. Alongside, it shall also provide the best solutions to the healthcare sector.

Keywords: aggregation, cipher, homomorphic stream, encryption

Procedia PDF Downloads 260

Authors: Atinkut Atinafu Yilma, Eyob Messele Sefene

Abstract:

Anomaly detection is one of the essential mechanisms to control and reduce production loss, especially in today's smart manufacturing. Quick anomaly detection aids in reducing the cost of production by minimizing the possibility of producing defective products. However, developing an anomaly detection model that can rapidly detect a production change is challenging. This paper proposes Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) combined with Random Forest (RF) to detect anomalies in the production process in real-time quickly. The GRU is used as a feature detector, and RF as a classifier using the input features from GRU. The model was tested using various synthesis and real-world datasets against benchmark methods. The results show that the proposed GRU-RF outperforms the benchmark methods with the shortest time taken to detect anomalies in the production process. Based on the investigation from the study, this proposed model can eliminate or reduce unnecessary production costs and bring a competitive advantage to manufacturing industries.

Keywords: anomaly detection, multivariate time series data, smart manufacturing, gated recurrent unit network, random forest

Procedia PDF Downloads 118

Authors: Yose Rizal, Nuraini, Mirnawati, Maria Endo Mahata, Rio Darman, Dendi Kurniawan

Abstract:

An experiment had been conducted to determine the effects of several levels of Neurospora crassa- fermented palm kernel cake in the diet on the production performance and egg-yolk quality of Arab laying-hens, and to obtain the appropriate level of this fermented palm kernel cake for reducing the utilization of concentrated feed in the diet. Three hundred Arab laying-hens of 72 weeks old were employed in this experiment, and randomly assigned to four treatments (0, 7.25, 10.15, and 13.05% fermented palm kernel cake in diets) in a completely randomized design with five replicates. Measured variables were production performance (feed consumption, egg-mass production, feed conversion, egg weight and hen-day egg production), and egg-yolk quality (ether extract and cholesterol contents, and egg-yolk color index). Results of experiment indicated that feed consumption, egg-mass production, feed conversion, egg weight, hen-day egg production and egg-yolk color index were not influenced (P>0.05) by diets. However, the ether extract and cholesterol contents of egg-yolk were very significantly reduced (P<0.01) by diets. In conclusion, Neurospora crassa-fermented palm kernel cake could be included up to 13.05% to effectively replace 45% concentrated feed in Arab laying-hens diet without adverse effect on the production performance.

Keywords: neurospora crassa-fermented palm kernel cake, Arab laying-hens, production performance, ether extract, cholesterol, egg-yolk color index

Procedia PDF Downloads 740

Authors: Omar Bataineh

Abstract:

Total productive maintenance (TPM) is a principle-based method that aims to get a high-level production with no breakdowns, no slow running and no defects. Key principles of TPM were applied in this work to improve the performance of the glass production line at United Beverage Company in Kuwait, which is producing bottles of soft drinks. Principles such as 5S as a foundation for TPM implementation, developing a program for equipment management, Cause and Effect Analysis (CEA), quality improvement, training and education of employees were employed. After the completion of TPM implementation, it was possible to increase the Overall Equipment Effectiveness (OEE) from 23% to 40%.

Keywords: OEE, TPM, FMEA, CEA

Procedia PDF Downloads 337

Authors: Jiemiao Chen, Shuoxun Xu

Abstract:

The main goal of our research is to apply the Vine copula measuring dependency between price, temperature, and precipitation indices to calculate a fair crop insurance premium. This research is focused on Worth, Iowa, United States, over the period from 2000 to 2020, where the farmers are dependent on precipitation and average temperature during the growth period of corn. Our proposed insurance considers both the natural risk and the price risk in agricultural production. We first estimate the distributions of crops using parametric methods based on Goodness of Fit tests, and then Vine Copula is applied to model dependence between yield price, crop yield, and weather indices. Once the vine structure and its parameters are determined based on AIC/BIC criteria and forecasting price and yield are obtained from the ARIMA model, we calculate this crop insurance premium using the simulation data generated from the vine copula by the Monte Carlo Simulation method. It is shown that, compared with traditional crop insurance, our proposed insurance is more fair and thus less costly for the farmers and government.

Keywords: vine copula, weather index, crop insurance premium, insurance risk management, Monte Carlo simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 201

Authors: Shiva Abdoli, Daniel T.Semere

Abstract:

Several researches have been conducted to study consumption of energy in cutting process. Most of these researches are focusing to measure the consumption and propose consumption reduction methods. In this work, the relation between the cutting parameters and the consumption is investigated in order to establish a generalized energy consumption model that can be used for process and production planning in real production lines. Using the generalized model, the process planning will be carried out by taking into account the energy as a function of the selected process parameters. Similarly, the generalized model can be used in production planning to select the right operational parameters like batch sizes, routing, buffer size, etc. in a production line. The description and derivation of the model as well as a case study are given in this paper to illustrate the applicability and validity of the model.

Keywords: process parameters, cutting process, energy efficiency, Material Removal Rate (MRR)

Procedia PDF Downloads 498

Authors: Li-Wei Wu, Chung-Yu Wang

Abstract:

Recently, interest has been generated in the search for a new reference framework for value creation that is centered on the co-creation process. Co-creation implies cooperative value creation between service firms and customers and requires the building of experiences as well as the resolution of problems through the combined effort of the parties in the relationship. For customers, values are always co-created through their participation in services. Customers can ultimately determine the value of the service in use. This new approach emphasizes that a customer’s participation in the service process is considered indispensable to value co-creation. An important feature of service in the context of exchange is co-production, which implies that a certain amount of participation is needed from customers to co-produce a service and hence co-create value. Co-production no doubt helps customers better understand and take charge of their own roles in the service process. Thus, this proposal is to encourage co-production, thus facilitating value co-creation of that is reflected in both customers and service firms. Four determinants of co-production are identified in this study, namely, commitment, trust, asset specificity, and decision-making uncertainty. Commitment is an essential dimension that directly results in successful cooperative behaviors. Trust helps establish a relational environment that is fundamental to cross-border cooperation. Asset specificity motivates co-production because this determinant may enhance return on asset investment. Decision-making uncertainty prompts customers to collaborate with service firms in making decisions. In other words, customers adjust their roles and are increasingly engaged in co-production when commitment, trust, asset specificity, and decision-making uncertainty are enhanced. Although studies have examined the preceding effects, to our best knowledge, none has empirically examined the simultaneous effects of all the curvilinear relationships in a single study. When these determinants are excessive, however, customers will not engage in co-production process. In brief, we suggest that the relationships of commitment, trust, asset specificity, and decision-making uncertainty with co-production are curvilinear or are inverse U-shaped. These new forms of curvilinear relationships have not been identified in existing literature on co-production; therefore, they complement extant linear approaches. Most importantly, we aim to consider both the bright and the dark sides of the determinants of co-production.

Keywords: co-production, commitment, trust, asset specificity, decision-making uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 188

Authors: Innocent Pangapanga-Phiri, Eric Dada Mungatana

Abstract:

This study estimates the effect of climate-induced rural-urban migrants (RUM) on maize productivity. It uses panel data gathered by the National Statistics Office and the World Bank to understand the effect of RUM on the technical efficiency of maize production in rural Malawi. The study runs the two-stage Tobit regression to isolate the real effect of rural-urban migration on the technical efficiency of maize production. The results show that RUM significantly reduces the technical efficiency of maize production. However, the interaction of RUM and climate-smart agriculture has a positive and significant influence on the technical efficiency of maize production, suggesting the need for re-investing migrants’ remittances in agricultural activities.

Keywords: climate-smart agriculture, farm productivity, rural-urban migration, panel stochastic frontier models, two-stage Tobit regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 132

Authors: Fabian Saptouw

Abstract:

In the past decade there was a resurgence of interest in the value of ‘process’ and ‘craft’ within the social and artistic community. Theorist like Barbara Bolt and Paul Carter have eloquently argued for the importance of ‘theorizing out of practice’ and ‘material thinking’ in response to this trend. Time and labour intensive artistic production processes are however not generally included in this bracket and often labelled as either obsessive or absurd. Neither of these terms adequately conveys the conceptual importance of labour in relation to ‘process’ as manifested through this production method. This issue will be addressed by critically assessing the work of eight South African artists through the lens of contemporary process-based production. This will result in a more integrated view of the art-object, its art-historical trajectory, its materialisation as well as its production process. This paper will conclude by tying the characteristics of these artworks to international trends and provide a platform for the overall reconsideration of unalienated artistic labour.

Keywords: materiality, process art, practice-led research, unalienated labour

Procedia PDF Downloads 341

Authors: Farzad Jafarpour Taher, Maghsud Solimanpur

Abstract:

Production planning is one of the complex tasks in multi-product firms that produce a wide range of products. Since resources in mass production companies are limited and different products use common resources, there must be a careful plan so that firms can respond to customer needs efficiently. Azar-battery Company is a firm that provides twenty types of products for its customers. Therefore, careful planning must be performed in this company. In this research, the current conditions of Azar-battery Company were investigated to provide a mathematical programming model to determine the optimum production rate of the products in this company. The production system of this company is multi-stage, multi-product and multi-period. This system is studied in terms of a one-year planning horizon regarding the capacity of machines and warehouse space limitation. The problem has been modeled as a linear programming model with deterministic demand in which shortage is not allowed. The objective function of this model is to minimize costs (including raw materials, assembly stage, energy costs, packaging, and holding). Finally, this model has been solved by Lingo software using the branch and bound approach. Since the computation time was very long, the solver interrupted, and the obtained feasible solution was used for comparison. The proposed model's solution costs have been compared to the company’s real data. This non-optimal solution reduces the total production costs of the company by about %35.

Keywords: multi-period, multi-product production, multi-stage, production planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 98

Authors: Kaleb Shiferaw, Berhanu Geberemedhin, Dereje Legesse

Abstract:

Access to credit is often viewed as a key to transform semi-subsistence smallholders into market oriented producers. However, only a few studies have examined factors that affect farmers’ decision to allocate credit on farm activities in general and livestock production in particular. A trivariate probit model with double selection is employed to identify factors that affect farmers’ decision to allocate credit on livestock production using data collected from smallholder farmers in Ethiopia. After controlling for two sample selection bias – taking credit for the production season and decision to allocate credit on farm activities – land ownership and access to a livestock centered extension service are found to have a significant (p<0.001) effect on farmers decision to use credit for livestock production. The result showed farmers with large land holding, and access to a livestock centered extension services are more likely to utilize credit for livestock production. However since the effect of land ownership squared is negative the effect of land ownership for those who own a large plot of land lessens. The study highlights the fact that improving access to credit does not automatically translate into more productive households. Improving farmers’ access to credit should be followed by a focused extension services.

Keywords: livestock production, credit access, credit allocation, household decision, double sample selection

Procedia PDF Downloads 327

Authors: Nasrin Bakhshizadeh, Ashkan Forootan

Abstract:

A major problem that affects the quality control of polymer in the industrial polymerization is the lack of suitable on-line measurement tools to evaluate the properties of the polymer such as melt and density indices. Controlling the polymerization in ordinary method is performed manually by taking samples, measuring the quality of polymer in the lab and registry of results. This method is highly time consuming and leads to producing large number of incompatible products. An online application for estimating melt index and density proposed in this study is a neural network based on the input-output data of the polyethylene production plant. Temperature, the level of reactors' bed, the intensity of ethylene mass flow, hydrogen and butene-1, the molar concentration of ethylene, hydrogen and butene-1 are used for the process to establish the neural model. The neural network is taught based on the actual operational data and back-propagation and Levenberg-Marquart techniques. The simulated results indicate that the neural network process model established with three layers (one hidden layer) for forecasting the density and the four layers for the melt index is able to successfully predict those quality properties.

Keywords: polyethylene, polymerization, density, melt index, neural network

Procedia PDF Downloads 144

Authors: M. Goerke, J. Gehrmann

Abstract:

Caused by shorter product life cycles and higher product variety the importance of production ramp ups is increasing. Even though companies are aware of that fact, up to 40% of the ramp up projects still miss technical and economical requirements. The success of a ramp up depends on the planning of human factors, organizational aspects and technological solutions. Since only partly considered in scientific literature, this paper lays its focus on the human factor during production ramp up. There are only incoherent methods which address the problems in this area. A systematic and holistic method to improve the capabilities of the employees during ramp up is missing. The Harada Method is a relatively young approach for developing highly-skilled workers. It consists of different worksheets which help employees to set guidelines and reach overall objectives. This approach is going to be transferred into a tool for ramp up management.

Keywords: employee development, Harada, production ramp up, organizational aspects

Procedia PDF Downloads 458

Authors: Adel A. S. Al-Gheethi, M. O. Abdul-Monem

Abstract:

Cellulase-producing bacteria were isolated from wastewater and sludge, and identified as Bacillus megaterium 1295S, Sporosarcina pasteurii 586S, Bacillus subtilis 117S, Burkholderia cepacia 120S and Staphylococcus xylosus 222W. Among bacteria, B. megaterium 1295S was the best cellulase producer under the catabolic repression and was therefore selected to study the factors affecting cellulase production. The optimum conditions for cellulase production were observed in CMC-Yeast Extract (CYE) agar medium (pH 6.5) inoculated with 0.4 mL of bacterial culture and incubated at 45˚C for 72 h. Twenty amino acids were introduced into the production medium as nitrogen source to investigate the production of cellulase in presence of amino acids in comparison to peptone (as an organic source) and sodium nitrate (as an inorganic source). The results found that the maximum production of cellulase was recorded at 50 ppm when L-hydroxy proline, L-arginine, glycine, L-histidine, L-leucine, DL-isoleucine, DL-β-phenylalanine were used as sole nitrogen sources and at 100 ppm when DL-threonine, L-ornithine 12.29, L-proline were used as sole nitrogen sources. The highest biomass yield was found when glycine 5 ppm and DL-serine 100 ppm used as a nitrogen source.

Keywords: CMCase, Bacillus megaterium 1295S, factors, amino acids

Procedia PDF Downloads 448