Search results for: gridded basin flash flood potential index

Authors: Meiyan Gao, Zongmin Wang, Haibo Yang, Qiuhua Liang

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Under the background of global climate change and rapid development of modern urbanization, the frequency of climate disasters such as extreme precipitation in cities around the world is gradually increasing. In this paper, Hi-PIMS model is used to simulate the "720" flood in Zhengzhou, and the continuous stages of flood resilience are determined with the urban flood stages are divided. The flood resilience curve under the influence of multiple factors were determined and the urban flood toughness was evaluated by combining the results of resilience curves. The flood resilience of urban unit grid was evaluated based on economy, population, road network, hospital distribution and land use type. Firstly, the rainfall data of meteorological stations near Zhengzhou and the remote sensing rainfall data from July 17 to 22, 2021 were collected. The Kriging interpolation method was used to expand the rainfall data of Zhengzhou. According to the rainfall data, the flood process generated by four rainfall events in Zhengzhou was reproduced. Based on the results of the inundation range and inundation depth in different areas, the flood process was divided into four stages: absorption, resistance, overload and recovery based on the once in 50 years rainfall standard. At the same time, based on the levels of slope, GDP, population, hospital affected area, land use type, road network density and other aspects, the resilience curve was applied to evaluate the urban flood resilience of different regional units, and the difference of flood process of different precipitation in "720" rainstorm in Zhengzhou was analyzed. Faced with more than 1,000 years of rainstorm, most areas are quickly entering the stage of overload. The influence levels of factors in different areas are different, some areas with ramps or higher terrain have better resilience, and restore normal social order faster, that is, the recovery stage needs shorter time. Some low-lying areas or special terrain, such as tunnels, will enter the overload stage faster in the case of heavy rainfall. As a result, high levels of flood protection, water level warning systems and faster emergency response are needed in areas with low resilience and high risk. The building density of built-up area, population of densely populated area and road network density all have a certain negative impact on urban flood resistance, and the positive impact of slope on flood resilience is also very obvious. While hospitals can have positive effects on medical treatment, they also have negative effects such as population density and asset density when they encounter floods. The result of a separate comparison of the unit grid of hospitals shows that the resilience of hospitals in the distribution range is low when they encounter floods. Therefore, in addition to improving the flood resistance capacity of cities, through reasonable planning can also increase the flood response capacity of cities. Changes in these influencing factors can further improve urban flood resilience, such as raise design standards and the temporary water storage area when floods occur, train the response speed of emergency personnel and adjust emergency support equipment.

Keywords: urban flood resilience, resilience assessment, hydrodynamic model, resilience curve

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Authors: V. Sivakumar, R. Neelakantan

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Mineral mapping on the Moon surface provides the clue to understand the origin, evolution, stratigraphy and geological history of the Moon. Recently, reflectance imaging spectroscopy plays a significant role in identifying minerals on the planetary surface in the Visible to NIR region of the electromagnetic spectrum. The Moon Mineralogy Mapper (M3) onboard Chandrayaan-1 provides unprecedented spectral data of lunar surface to study about the Moon surface. Here we used the M3 sensor data (hyperspectral imaging spectroscopy) for analysing mineralogy of Orientale basin region on the Moon surface. Reflectance spectrums were sampled from different locations of the basin and continuum was removed using ENvironment for Visualizing Images (ENVI) software. Reflectance spectra of unknown mineral composition were compared with known Reflectance Experiment Laboratory (RELAB) spectra for discriminating mineralogy. Minerals like olivine, Low-Ca Pyroxene (LCP), High-Ca Pyroxene (HCP) and plagioclase were identified. In addition to these minerals, an unusual type of spectral signature was identified, which indicates the probable Fe-Mg-spinel lithology in the basin region.

Keywords: chandryaan-1, moon mineralogy mapper, mineral, mare orientale, moon

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Authors: Moaawia Abdulgader Gdara

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This work presents a study of Carbone dioxide generation and migration in the Bahi sandstone reservoir over the EPSA 120/136 (conc 72). En Naga Sub Basin, Sirte Basin Libya. The Lower Cretaceous Bahi Sandstone is the result of deposition that occurred between the start of the Cretaceous rifting that formed the area's Horsts, Grabens and Cenomanian marine transgression. Bahi sediments were derived mainly from those Nubian sediments exposed on the structurally higher blocks, transported short distances into newly forming depocenters such as the En Naga Sub-basin and were deposited by continental processes over the Sirte Unconformity (pre-Late Cretaceous surface) Bahi Sandstone facies are recognized in the En Naga Sub-basin within different lithofacies distribution over this sub-base. One of the two lithofacies recognized in the Bahi is a very fine to very coarse, subangular to angular, pebbly and occasionally conglomeratic quartz sandstone, which is commonly described as being compacted but friable. This sandstone may contain pyrite and minor kaolinite. This facies was encountered at 11,042 feet in F1-72 well, and at 9,233 feet in L1-72. Good, reservoir quality sandstones are associated with paleotopographic highs within the sub-basin and around its margins where winnowing and/or deflationary processes occurred. The second Bahi Lithofacies is a thinly bedded sequence dominated by shales and siltstones with subordinate sandstones and carbonates. The sandstones become more abundant with depth. This facies was encountered at 12,580 feet in P1 -72 and at 11,850 feet in G1a -72. This argillaceous sequence is likely the Bahi sandstone's lateral facies equivalent deposited in paleotopographic lows, which received finer-grained material. The Bahi sandstones are generally described as a good reservoir rock, which after prolific production tests for the drilled wells makes Bahi sandstones the principal reservoir rocks for CO₂ where large volumes of CO₂ gas have been discovered in the Bahi Formation on and near EPSA 120/136, (conc 72). CO₂ occurs in this area as a result of the igneous activity of the Al Harouge Al Aswad complex. Igneous extrusive have been pierced in the subsurface and are exposed at the surface. Bahi CO₂ prospectivity is thought to be excellent in the central to western areas of EPSA 120/136 (CONC 72) where there are better reservoir quality sandstones associated with Paleostructural highs. Condensate and gas prospectivity increases to the east as the CO₂ productivity decreases with distance away from the Al Haruj Al Aswad igneous complex. To date, it has not been possible to accurately determine the volume of these strategically valuable reserves, although there are positive indications that they are very large. Three main structures (Barrut I, En Naga A and En Naga O) are thought to be prospective for the lower Cretaceous Bahi sandstone development. These leads are the most attractive on EPSA 120/136 for the deep potential.

Keywords: En Naga Sub Basin, Al Harouge Al Aswad's Igneous complex, carbon dioxide generation, migration in the Bahi sandstone reservoir, lower cretaceous Bahi Sandstone

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Authors: Moaawia Abdulgader Gdara

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This work presents a study of carbon dioxide generation and migration in the Bahi sandstone reservoir over the EPSA 120/136 (conc 72), En Naga Sub Basin, Sirte Basin, Libya. The Lower Cretaceous Bahi Sandstone is the result of deposition that occurred between the start of the Cretaceous rifting that formed the area's Horsts, Grabens, and Cenomanian marine transgression. Bahi sediments were derived mainly from those Nubian sediments exposed on the structurally higher blocks, transported short distances into newly forming depocenters such as the En Naga Sub-basin, and were deposited by continental processes over the Sirte Unconformity (pre-Late Cretaceous surface). Bahi Sandstone facies are recognized in the En Naga Sub-basin within different lithofacies distributed over this sub-base. One of the two lithofacies recognized in the Bahi is a very fine to very coarse, subangular to angular, pebbly, and occasionally conglomeratic quartz sandstone, which is commonly described as being compacted but friable. This sandstone may contain pyrite, minor kaolinite. This facies was encountered at 11,042 feet in F1-72 well and at 9,233 feet in L1-72. Good, reservoir quality sandstones are associated with paleotopographic highs within the sub-basin and around its margins where winnowing and/or deflationary processes occurred. The second Bahi Lithofacies is a thinly bedded sequence dominated by shales and siltstones with subordinate sandstones and carbonates. The sandstones become more abundant with depth. This facies was encountered at 12,580 feet in P1 -72 and at 11,850 feet in G1a -72. This argillaceous sequence is likely the Bahi sandstone's lateral facies equivalent deposited in paleotopographic lows, which received finer grained material. The Bahi sandstones are generally described as a good reservoir rock, which after prolific production tests for the drilled wells that makes Bahi sandstones the principal reservoir rocks for CO₂ where large volumes of CO₂ gas have been discovered in the Bahi Formation on and near EPSA 120/136, (conc 72). CO₂ occurs in this area as a result of the igneous activity of the Al Harouge Al Aswad complex. Igneous extrusive have been pierced in the subsurface and are exposed at the surface. Bahi CO₂ prospectivity is thought to be excellent in the central to western areas of EPSA 120/136 (CONC 72), where there are better reservoir quality sandstones associated with Paleostructural highs. Condensate and gas prospectivity increases to the east as the CO₂ prospectivity decreases with distance away from the Al Haruj Al Aswad igneous complex. To date, it has not been possible to accurately determine the volume of these strategically valuable reserves, although there are positive indications that they are very large. Three main structures (Barrut I, En Naga A, and En Naga O) are thought to be prospective for the lower Cretaceous Bahi sandstone development. These leads are the most attractive on EPSA 120/136 for the deep potential.

Keywords: En Naga Sub Basin, Al Harouge Al Aswad’s Igneous Complex, carbon dioxide generation and migration in the Bahi sandstone reservoir, lower cretaceous Bahi sandstone

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Authors: John Christian Lequiron, Gerry Bagtasa, Olivia Cabrera, Leoncio Amadore, Tolentino Moya

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Changes in air surface temperature play an important role in the Philippine’s economy, industry, health, and food production. While increasing global mean temperature in the recent several decades has prompted a number of climate change and variability studies in the Philippines, most studies still focus on rainfall and tropical cyclones. This study aims to investigate the trend and variability of observed air surface temperature and determine its major influencing factor/s in the Philippines. A non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test was applied to monthly mean temperature of 17 synoptic stations covering 56 years from 1960 to 2015 and a mean change of 0.58 °C or a positive trend of 0.0105 °C/year (p < 0.05) was found. In addition, wavelet decomposition was used to determine the frequency of temperature variability show a 12-month, 30-80-month and more than 120-month cycles. This indicates strong annual variations, interannual variations that coincide with ENSO events, and interdecadal variations that are attributed to PDO and CO2 concentrations. Air surface temperature was also correlated with smoothed sunspot number and galactic cosmic rays, the results show a low to no effect. The influence of ENSO teleconnection on temperature, wind pattern, cloud cover, and outgoing longwave radiation on different ENSO phases had significant effects on regional temperature variability. Particularly, an anomalous anticyclonic (cyclonic) flow east of the Philippines during the peak and decay phase of El Niño (La Niña) events leads to the advection of warm southeasterly (cold northeasterly) air mass over the country. Furthermore, an apparent increasing cloud cover trend is observed over the West Philippine Sea including portions of the Philippines, and this is believed to lessen the effect of the increasing air surface temperature. However, relative humidity was also found to be increasing especially on the central part of the country, which results in a high positive trend of heat index, exacerbating the effects on human discomfort. Finally, an assessment of gridded temperature datasets was done to look at the viability of using three high-resolution datasets in future climate analysis and model calibration and verification. Several error statistics (i.e. Pearson correlation, Bias, MAE, and RMSE) were used for this validation. Results show that gridded temperature datasets generally follows the observed surface temperature change and anomalies. In addition, it is more representative of regional temperature rather than a substitute to station-observed air temperature.

Keywords: air surface temperature, carbon dioxide, ENSO, galactic cosmic rays, smoothed sunspot number

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Authors: Guo-Hui Lu, Jing-Yi Cai, Ke-Yan Tan, Xiao-Cai Yin, Yu Zheng, Peng-Wei Shao, Yong-Liang Yang

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Soil erosion around abandoned mines is one of the important geological agents for pollutant diffuses to the lower reaches of the local river basin system. River loading of pollutants is an important parameter for remediation of abandoned mines. In order to obtain information on pollutant transport and diffusion downstream in mining area, the small tributary system of the Xiaxi River in Wanshan District of Guizhou Province was selected as the research area. Sediment and suspended matter samples were collected and determined for Pb, As, Hg, Zn, Co, Cd, Cu, Ni, Cr, and Mn by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and atomic fluorescence spectrometry (AFS) with the pretreatment of wet digestion. Discussions are made for pollution status and spatial distribution characteristics. The total Hg content in the sediments ranged from 0.45 to 16.0 g/g (dry weight) with an average of 5.79 g/g, which was ten times higher than the limit of Class II soil for mercury by the National Soil Environmental Quality Standard. The maximum occurred at the intersection of the Jin River and the Xiaxi River. The potential ecological hazard index (RI) was used to evaluate the ecological risk of heavy metals in the sediments. The average RI value for the whole study area suggests the high potential ecological risk level. High Cd potential ecological risk was found at individual sites.

Keywords: heavy metal, risk assessment, sediment, suspended matter, Wanshan mercury mine, small tributary system

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Authors: Zakiullah Kalwar, Shabeer Abbassi

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This research encompasses the study of structural styles and evaluation of the hydrocarbon potential of Kotrum and Drigri anticlines located in Rajanpur Area, Midddle Indus Basin of Pakistan with the approach of geophysical data integration. The study area is situated between the Sulaiman Foldbelt on the west and Indus River in the east. It is an anticlinal fold, located to the southeast of Sakhi Sarwar anticline and separated from a prominent syncline. The structure has a narrow elongated crest, with the axis running in SSW-NNE direction. In the east, the structure is bounded by a gentle syncline. Structural Styles are trending East-West and perpendicular to tectonic transport and stress direction and the base of the structures gradually dipping Eastward beneath the deformation frontal part in Eastern Sulaiman Fold Belt. Middle Indus Basin can be divided into Foreland, Sulaiman fold belt and a broad foredeep. Sulaiman represents a blind thrust front, which suggests that all frontal folds of the fold belt are cored by blind thrust. The deformation of frontal part of Sulaiman Lobe represents the passive roof duplex stacked beneath the frontal passive roof thrust. The passive roof thrust, which has a back thrust sense of motion and extends into the interior of Fold belt. Left lateral Kingri Fault separates Eastern and Central Sulaiman fold belt. In Central Sulaiman fold belt the deformation front moved further towards fore deep as compared to Eastern Sulaiman. Two wells (Kotrum-01, Drigri-01) have been drilled in the study area with the objective to determine the potential of oil and gas in Habib Rahi Limestone of Eocene age, Dunghan Limestone of Paleocene age and Pab Sandstone of cretaceous age and role of structural styles in hydrocarbon potential of study area. Kotrum-01 well was drilled to its T.D of 4798m. Besides fishing and side tracking, tight whole conditions, high pressure, and losses of circulation were also encountered. During production, testing Pab sandstone were tested but abandoned found. Drigri-01 well was drilled to its T.D 3250 m. RFT was carried out at different points, but all points showed no pressure / seal failure and the well was plugged and declared abandoned.

Keywords: hydrocarbon potential, structural style, reserve calculation, enhance production

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Authors: Varis Ransibrahmanakul, Doug Pirhalla, Scott Sheridan, Cameron Lee

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U.S. coastal areas and ecosystems are facing multiple sea level rise threats and effects: heavy rain events, cyclones, and changing wind and weather patterns all influence coastal flooding, sedimentation, and erosion along critical barrier islands and can strongly impact habitat resiliency and water quality in protected habitats. These impacts are increasing over time and have accelerated the need for new tracking techniques, models and tools of flood risk to support enhanced preparedness for coastal management and mitigation. To address this issue, NOAA National Ocean Service (NOS) evaluated new metrics from satellite altimetry AVISO/Copernicus and MODIS IR flood extents to isolate nodes atmospheric variability indicative of elevated sea level and nuisance flood events. Using de-trended time series of cross-shelf sea surface heights (SSH), we identified specific Self Organizing Maps (SOM) nodes and transitions having a strongest regional association with oceanic spatial patterns (e.g., heightened downwelling favorable wind-stress and enhanced southward coastal transport) indicative of elevated coastal sea levels. Results show the impacts of the inverted barometer effect as well as the effects of surface wind forcing; Ekman-induced transport along broad expanses of the U.S. eastern coastline. Higher sea levels and corresponding localized flooding are associated with either pattern indicative of enhanced on-shore flow, deepening cyclones, or local- scale winds, generally coupled with an increased local to regional precipitation. These findings will support an integration of satellite products and will inform seasonal outlook model development supported through NOAAs Climate Program Office and NOS office of Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS). Overall results will prioritize ecological areas and coastal lab facilities at risk based on numbers of nuisance flood projected and inform coastal management of flood risk around low lying areas subjected to bank erosion.

Keywords: AVISO satellite altimetry SSHA, MODIS IR flood map, nuisance flood, remote sensing of flood

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Authors: Mouhamed Mbouandi Njikam

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This work assesses the trade potential of countries in the Economic Community of Central Africa States (ECCAS). The gravity model of trade is used to evaluate the trade flows of member countries, and to compute the trade potential index of ECCAS during 1995-2010. The focus is on the removal of tariffs and non-tariff barriers in the sub-region. Estimates from the gravity model are used for the calculation of the sub-region’s commercial potential. Its three main findings are: (i) the background research shows a low level of integration in the sub-region and open economies; (ii) a low level of industrialization and diversification are the main factors reducing trade potential in the sub-region; (iii) the trade creation predominate on the deflections of trade between member countries.

Keywords: gravity model, ECCAS, trade flows, trade potential, regional cooperation

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Authors: Abdelghani Leghouchi

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This study aims to predict the consequences associated with the propagation of the flood wave that may occur after the failure of the Taksebt dam and suggest an efficient emergency action plan (EAP) for mitigation purposes. To achieve the objectives of this study, the hydrodynamic model HEC-RAS 2D was used for the flood routing of the dam break wave, which gave an estimate of the hydraulic characteristics downstream the Taksebt dam. Geospatial analysis of the simulation results conducted in a Geographic information system (GIS) environment showed that many residential areas are considered to be in danger in case of the Taksebt dam break event. Based on the obtained results, an emergency actions plan was suggested to moderate the causalities in the downstream area at risk. Overall, the present study showed that the integration of 2D hydraulic modeling and GIS provides great capabilities in providing realistic view of the dam break wave propagation that enhances assessing the associated risks and proposing appropriate mitigation measures.

Keywords: taksebt dam, dam break, wave propagation time, HEC-RAS 2D

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Authors: Apu Kumar Saha, Mrinmoy Majumder

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The increase in the concentration of Green House gases all over the World has induced global warming phenomena whereby the average temperature of the world has aggravated to impact the pattern of climate in different regions. The frequency of extreme event has increased, early onset of season and change in an average amount of rainfall all are engrossing the conclusion that normal pattern of climate is changing. Sophisticated and complex models are prepared to estimate the future situation of the climate in different zones of the Earth. As hydro-energy is directly related to climatic parameters like rainfall and evaporation such energy resources will have to sustain the onset of the climatic abnormalities. The present investigation has tried to assess the impact of climatic abnormalities upon hydropower potential of different regions of the World. In this regard multi-criteria, decision making, and the neural network is used to predict the impact of the change cognitively by an index. The results from the study show that hydro-energy potential of Asian region is mostly vulnerable with respect to other regions of the world. The model results also encourage further application of the index to analyze the impact of climate change on the potential of hydro-energy.

Keywords: hydro-energy potential, neural networks, multi criteria decision analysis, environmental and ecological engineering

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Authors: Thabo M. Bafitlhile, Adewole Oladele

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Botswana has been affected by floods since long ago and is still experiencing this tragic event. Flooding occurs mostly in the North-West, North-East, and parts of Central district due to heavy rainfalls experienced in these areas. The torrential rains destroyed homes, roads, flooded dams, fields and destroyed livestock and livelihoods. Palapye is one area in the central district that has been experiencing floods ever since 1995 when its greatest flood on record occurred. Heavy storms result in floods and inundation; this has been exacerbated by poor and absence of drainage structures. Since floods are a part of nature, they have existed and will to continue to exist, hence more destruction. Furthermore floods and highway plays major role in erosion and destruction of roads structures. Already today, many culverts, trenches, and other drainage facilities lack the capacity to deal with current frequency for extreme flows. Future changes in the pattern of hydro climatic events will have implications for the design and maintenance costs of roads. Increase in rainfall and severe weather events can affect the demand for emergent responses. Therefore flood forecasting and warning is a prerequisite for successful mitigation of flood damage. In flood prone areas like Palapye, preventive measures should be taken to reduce possible adverse effects of floods on the environment including road structures. Therefore this paper attempts to estimate return periods associated with huge storms of different magnitude from recorded historical rainfall depth using statistical method. The method of annual maxima was used to select data sets for the rainfall analysis. In the statistical method, the Type 1 extreme value (Gumbel), Log Normal, Log Pearson 3 distributions were all applied to the annual maximum series for Palapye area to produce IDF curves. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Chi Squared were used to confirm the appropriateness of fitted distributions for the location and the data do fit the distributions used to predict expected frequencies. This will be a beneficial tool for urgent flood forecasting and water resource administration as proper drainage design will be design based on the estimated flood events and will help to reclaim and protect the road structures from adverse impacts of flood.

Keywords: drainage, estimate, evaluation, floods, flood forecasting

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Authors: J. M. Alzate, J. Baena

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This work presents the final results of the ‘Diagnosis of the hydrological and hydrogeological potential in the Mancomojan basin for estimations of offer and demand’ with the purpose of obtaining solutions of domestic supply for the communities of the zone of study. There was realized the projection of population of the paths by three different scenes. The highest water total demand appears with the considerations of the scene 3, with a total demand for the year 2050 of 59.275 m3/year (1,88 l/s), being the path San Francisco the one that exercises a major pressure on the resource with a demand for the same year of the order of 31.189 m3/year (0,99 l/s). As for the hydrogeological potential of the zone and as alternative of supply of the studied communities, the stratigraphic columns obtained of the geophysical polls do not show strata saturated with water that could be considered to be a potential source of supply for the communities. The water registered in the geophysics tests presents very low resistances what indicates that he presents ions, this water meets in the rock interstices very thin granulometries which indicates that it is a water of constitution, and the flow of this one towards more permeable granulometries is void or limited. The underground resource that is registered so much in electrical vertical polls (SEV) as in tomography and that is saturating rocks of thin granulometry (clays and slimes), was demonstrated by content of ions, which is consistent with the abundant presence of plaster and the genesis marinades with transition to continental of the geological units in the zone. Predominant rocks are sedimentary, sandy rocks of grain I die principally, in minor proportion were observed also sandstones of thick grain to conglomerate with clastic rock of quartz, chert and siltstone of the Formation Mess and sandstones (of thin, average and thick grain) alternating with caps conglomerate whose thickness is, in general, between 5 and 15 cm, the nodules of sandstones are frequent with the same composition of the sandstones that contain them, in some cases with calcareous and crossed stratification of the formation Sincelejo Miembro Morroa.

Keywords: hydrological, hydrogeological potential, geotomography, vertical electrical sounding (VES)

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Authors: Chien-Kuo Chiu

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In the displacement-based seismic design and evaluation, equivalent linearization method is one of the approximation methods to estimate the maximum inelastic displacement response of a system. In this study, the accuracy of two equivalent linearization methods are investigated. The investigation consists of three soil condition in Taiwan (Taipei Basin 1, 2, and 3) and five different heights of building (H_r= 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 m). The first method is the Taiwan equivalent linearization method (TELM) which was proposed based on Japanese equivalent linear method considering the modification factor, α_T= 0.85. On the basis of Lin and Miranda study, the second method is proposed with some modification considering Taiwan soil conditions. From this study, it is shown that Taiwanese equivalent linearization method gives better estimation compared to the modified Lin and Miranda method (MLM). The error index for the Taiwanese equivalent linearization method are 16%, 13%, and 12% for Taipei Basin 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Furthermore, a ductility demand spectrum of single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) system is presented in this study as a guide for engineers to estimate the ductility demand of a structure.

Keywords: displacement-based design, ductility demand spectrum, equivalent linearization method, RC buildings, single-degree-of-freedom

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Authors: Natasha Correa Vitória Bandeira, Lais Cordeiro Soares, Claudineia Brazil, Luciane Teresa Salvi

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The intense rain event that occurred between February 16 and 18, 2018, in the city of Barcarena in Pará, located in the North region of Brazil, demonstrates the importance of analyzing this type of event. The metropolitan mesoregion of Belem was severely punished by rains much above the averages normally expected for that time of year; this phenomenon affected, in addition to the capital, the municipalities of Barcarena, Murucupi and Muruçambá. Resulting in a great flood in the rivers of the region, whose basins were affected with great intensity of precipitation, causing concern for the local population because in this region, there are located companies that accumulate ore tailings, and in this specific case, the dam of any of these companies, leaching the ore to the water bodies of the Murucupi River Basin. This article aims to characterize this phenomenon through a special analysis of the distribution of rainfall, using data from atmospheric soundings, satellite images, radar images and data from the GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project), in addition to rainfall stations located in the study region. The results of the work demonstrated a dissociation between the data measured in the meteorological stations and the other forms of analysis of this extreme event. Monitoring carried out solely on the basis of data from pluviometric stations is not sufficient for monitoring and/or diagnosing extreme weather events, and investment by the competent bodies is important to install a larger network of pluviometric stations sufficient to meet the demand in a given region.

Keywords: extreme precipitation, great flood, GPCP, ore dam

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Authors: Nirman Kumar Ojha

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Bamboo plantation can be integrated for natural embankment against flood and live fencing against wild animals, at the same time provide economic opportunity for the poor farmers as a sustainable solution and adaptation alternative. 2010 flood in the Rui River completely inundated fields of four VDCs in Madi, Chitwan National Park with extensive bank erosion. The main aim of this action research was to identify an economically sustainable natural embankment against flood and also providing wildlife friendly fencing to reduce human-wildlife conflict. Community people especially poor farmers were trained for soil testing, land identification, plantation, and the harvesting regime, nursery set up and intercropping along with bamboo plantation on the edge of the river bank in order to reduce or minimize soil erosion. Results show that farmers are able to establish cost efficient and economically sustainable river embankment with bamboo plantation also creating a fence for wildlife which has also promoted bamboo cultivation and conservation. This action research has amalgamated flood control and wildlife control with the livelihood of the farmers which otherwise would cost huge resource. Another major impact of the bamboo plantation is its role in climate change and its adaptation process reducing degradation and improving vegetation cover contributing to landscape management. Based on this study, we conclude that bamboo plantation in Madi, Chitwan promoted the livelihood of the poor farmers providing a sustainable economic solution to reduce bank erosion, human-wildlife conflict and contributes to landscape management.

Keywords: climate change and conservation, economic opportunity, flood control, national park

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Authors: Mercy Chepkirui, Paul Orina, Priscilla Boera, Judith Achoki

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Oreochromis jipe is a tropical freshwater bentho-pelagic fish belonging to the Cichlid family that is endemic to the Pangani River basin and Lake Jipe in Kenya and northern Tanzania, while Oreochromis niloticus inhabits the Lake Victoria basin with reported cases in Lake jipe too. Unlike O. jipe, Oreochromis niloticus is spreading across the globe due to its cultural potential. This, however, could cause genetic purity concerns in the event of cross-breeding among the tilapiines, which is already taking place in the wild. The study envisaged establishing the possibility of hybridization among the two species under aquaculture conditions and phenotypically informing the difference between pure and cross lines. Two hundred sixteen mature brooders weighing 100-120g were selected randomly, 108 of Oreochromis Jipe and 108 of Oreochromis niloticus; for each trial, 72 males and 144 females were distributed into 3 crosses, each grouped in triplicates (Oreochromis niloticus (♀) X Oreochromis niloticus(♂);Oreochromis niloticus (♂) X Oreochromis jipe ( ♀); Oreochromis jipe (♂) X Oreochromis niloticus (♀); Oreochromis jipe (♂) X Oreochromis jipe (♀). All trials had the F1 generation, which is currently undergoing growth trials and assessing its viability for the 2nd generation. The results indicated that Oreochromis niloticus has better growth, followed by crosses (Oreochromis niloticus X Oreochromis jipe) and, finally, pure line Oreochromis jipe. Further, pure Oreochromis jipe F1 demonstrated potential for aquaculture adoption despite its recent introduction into aquaculture; thus, this will help towards the conservation of indigenous fish species of Lake Jipe fishery, which is currently under the Internationa Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of endangered fish species. However, there is a need to inform the purity of existing Oreochromis jipe wild stocks to inform genetic material conservation.

Keywords: biodiversity, climate change, fisheries, oreochromis jipe, conservation

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Authors: Najeeb Hassan, Mahmudur Rahman

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Arial Khan River is one of the main south-eastward outlets of the River Padma. This river maintains a meander channel through its course and is erosional in nature. The specific objective of the research is to study and evaluate the hydrological characteristics in the form of assessing changes of cross-sections, discharge, water level and velocity profile in different stations and to create a hydrodynamic model of the Arial Khan River. Necessary data have been collected from Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) and Center for Environment and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS). Satellite images have been observed from Google earth. In this study, hydrodynamic model of Arial Khan River has been developed using well known steady open channel flow code Hydrologic Engineering Centers and River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) using field surveyed geometric data. Cross-section properties at 22 locations of River Arial Khan for the years 2011, 2013 and 2015 were also analysed. 1-D HEC-RAS model has been developed using the cross sectional data of 2015 and appropriate boundary condition is being used to run the model. This Arial Khan River model is calibrated using the pick discharge of 2015. The applicable value of Mannings roughness coefficient (n) is adjusted through the process of calibration. The value of water level which ties with the observed data to an acceptable accuracy is taken as calibrated model. The 1-D HEC-RAS model then validated by using the pick discharges from 2009-2018. Variation in observed water level in the model and collected water level data is being compared to validate the model. It is observed that due to seasonal variation, discharge of the river changes rapidly and Mannings roughness coefficient (n) also changes due to the vegetation growth along the river banks. This river model may act as a tool to measure flood area in future. By considering the past pick flow discharge, it is strongly recommended to improve the carrying capacity of Arial Khan River to protect the surrounding areas from flash flood.

Keywords: BWDB, CEGIS, HEC-RAS

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Authors: Y. B. Sharma, K. B. Biswas

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This research project examines a 5000 cal yr BP sediment core record to reveal the consequences of human impact and climate variability on the tropical dry forests of the Mahi river basin, western India. To date there has been little research to assess the impact of climate variability and human impact on the vegetation dynamics of this region. There has also been little work to link changes in vegetation cover to documented changes in the basin hydrology over the past 100 years – although it is assumed that the two are closely linked. The key objective of this research project therefore is to understand the driving mechanisms responsible for the abrupt changes in the Mahi river basin as detailed in historical documentation and its impact on water resource management. The Mahi river basin is located in western India (22° 11’-24° 35’ N 72° 46’-74° 52’ E). Mahi river arises in the Malwa Plateau, Madhya Pradesh near Moripara and flows through the uplands and alluvial plain of Rajasthan and Gujarat provinces before draining into the Gulf of Cambay. Palaeoecological procedures (sedimentology, geochemical analysis, C&N isotopes and fossil pollen evidences) have been applied on sedimentary sequences collected from lakes in the Mahi basin. These techniques then facilitate to reconstruct the soil erosion, nutrient cycling, vegetation changes and climatic variability over the last 5000 years. Historical documentation detailing changes in demography, climate and landscape use over the past 100 years in this region will also be collated to compare with the most recent palaeoecological records. The results of the research work provide a detailed record of vegetation change, soil erosion, changes in aridity, and rainfall patterns in the region over the past 5000 years. This research therefore aims to determine the drivers of change and natural variability in the basin. Such information is essential for its current and future management including restoration.

Keywords: human impact, climate variability, vegetation cover, hydrology, water resource management, Mahi river basin, sedimentology, geochemistry, fossil pollen, nutrient cycling, vegetation changes, palaeoecology, aridity, rainfall, drivers of change

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Authors: Takahiro Katayama, Hsueh-Sheng Chang

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Due to the global climate change, it has increased the extreme rainfall that led to serious floods around the world. In recent years, urbanization and population growth also tend to increase the number of impervious surfaces, resulting in significant loss of life and property during floods especially for the urban areas of Taiwan. In the past, the primary governmental response to floods was structural flood control and the only flood protection standards in use were the design standards. However, these design standards of flood control facilities are generally calculated based on current hydrological conditions. In the face of future extreme events, there is a high possibility to surpass existing design standards and cause damages directly and indirectly to the public. To cope with the frequent occurrence of floods in recent years, it has been pointed out that there is a need for a different standard called FPSR (Flood Protection Standard of Regions) in Taiwan. FPSR is mainly used for disaster reduction and used to ensure that hydraulic facilities draining regional flood immediately under specific return period. FPSR could convey a level of flood risk which is useful for land use planning and reflect the disaster situations that a region can bear. However, little has been reported on FPSR and its impacts to the public in Taiwan. Hence, this study proposes a quantity procedure to evaluate the FPSR. This study aimed to examine FPSR of the region and public perceptions of and knowledge about FPSR, as well as the public’s WTP (willingness to pay) for FPSR. The research is conducted via literature review and questionnaire method. Firstly, this study will review the domestic and international research on the FPSR, and provide the theoretical framework of FPSR. Secondly, CVM (Contingent Value Method) has been employed to conduct this survey and using double-bounded dichotomous choice, close-ended format elicits households WTP for raising the protection level to understand the social costs. The samplings of this study are citizens living in Taichung city, Taiwan and 700 samplings were chosen in this study. In the end, this research will continue working on surveys, finding out which factors determining WTP, and provide some recommendations for adaption policies for floods in the future.

Keywords: climate change, CVM (Contingent Value Method), FPSR (Flood Protection Standard of Regions), urban flooding

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Authors: N. Fuad, M. N. Taib, R. Jailani, M. E. Marwan

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In this paper, the comparison between k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN) algorithms for classifying the 3D EEG model in brain balancing is presented. The EEG signal recording was conducted on 51 healthy subjects. Development of 3D EEG models involves pre-processing of raw EEG signals and construction of spectrogram images. Then, maximum PSD values were extracted as features from the model. There are three indexes for the balanced brain; index 3, index 4 and index 5. There are significant different of the EEG signals due to the brain balancing index (BBI). Alpha-α (8–13 Hz) and beta-β (13–30 Hz) were used as input signals for the classification model. The k-NN classification result is 88.46% accuracy. These results proved that k-NN can be used in order to predict the brain balancing application.

Keywords: power spectral density, 3D EEG model, brain balancing, kNN

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Authors: A. Sathiya Susuman, Hamisi F. Hamisi

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Background: Many socio-economic and demographic data are age-sex attributed. However, a variety of irregularities and misstatement are noted with respect to age-related data and less to sex data because of its biological differences between the genders. Noting the misstatement/misreporting of age data regardless of its significance importance in demographics and epidemiological studies, this study aims at assessing the quality of 2012 Tanzania Population and Housing Census Results. Methods: Data for the analysis are downloaded from Tanzania National Bureau of Statistics. Age heaping and digit preference were measured using summary indices viz., Whipple’s index, Myers’ blended index, and Age-Sex Accuracy index. Results: The recorded Whipple’s index for both sexes was 154.43; male has the lowest index of about 152.65 while female has the highest index of about 156.07. For Myers’ blended index, the preferences were at digits ‘0’ and ‘5’ while avoidance were at digits ‘1’ and ‘3’ for both sexes. Finally, Age-sex index stood at 59.8 where sex ratio score was 5.82 and age ratio scores were 20.89 and 21.4 for males and female respectively. Conclusion: The evaluation of the 2012 PHC data using the demographic techniques has qualified the data inaccurate as the results of systematic heaping and digit preferences/avoidances. Thus, innovative methods in data collection along with measuring and minimizing errors using statistical techniques should be used to ensure accuracy of age data.

Keywords: age heaping, digit preference/avoidance, summary indices, Whipple’s index, Myer’s index, age-sex accuracy index

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Authors: Anurag Mishra, Prabhat Kumar Singh, Anurag Ohri, Shishir Gaur

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Streams and rivulets are crucial in maintaining river networks and their hydrology, influencing downstream ecosystems, and connecting different watersheds of urban and rural areas. The river Assi, an urban river, once a lifeline for the locals, has degraded over time. Evidence, such as the presence of paleochannels and patterns of water bodies and settlements, suggests that the river Assi was initially an alluvial stream or rivulet that originated near Rishi Durvasha Ashram near Prayagraj, flowing approximately 120 km before joining the river Ganga at Assi ghat in Varanasi. Presently, a major challenge is that nearly 90% of its original channel has been silted and disappeared, with only the last 8 km retaining some semblance of a river. It is possible that initially, the river Assi branched off from the river Ganga and functioned as a Yazoo stream. In this study, paleochannels of the river Assi were identified using Landsat 5 imageries and SRTM DEM. The study employed the Normalized Difference Vegetation Seasonality Index (NDVSI) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to detect these paleochannels. The average elevation of the sub-basin at the Durvasha Rishi Ashram of river Assi is 96 meters, while it reduces to 80 meters near its confluence with the Ganga in Varanasi, resulting in a 16-meter elevation drop along its course. There are 81 subbasins covering an area of 83,241 square kilometers. It is possible that due to the increased resistance in the flow of river Assi near urban areas of Varanasi, a new channel, Morwa, has originated at an elevation of 87 meters, meeting river Varuna at an elevation of 79 meters. The difference in elevation is 8 meters. Furthermore, the study explored the possibility of restoring the paleochannel of the river Assi and nearby ponds and water bodies to improve the river's base flow and overall hydrological conditions.

Keywords: River Assi, small river restoration, paleochannel identification, remote sensing, GIS

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Authors: Marziehossadat Moezzi

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In this paper, electromagnetically induced transparency (EIT) is investigated in a cylindrical quantum dot (QD) with a parabolic confinement potential. We study the effect of control lasers polarization on absorption coefficient, refractive index and also on the generation of the double transparency windows in this system. Considering an effective mass method, the time-independent Schrödinger equation is solved to obtain the energy structure of the QD. Also, we study the effect of structural characteristics of the QD on refraction and absorption of the QD in the presence of EIT.

Keywords: electromagnetically induced transparency, cylindrical quantum dot, absorption coefficient, refractive index

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Authors: Hany Mustafa, Mahmoud Roushdi, Khaled Kheireldin

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Rainfall variability is an important feature of semi-arid climates. Climate change is very likely to increase the frequency, magnitude, and variability of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, and storms. The Blue Nile Basin is facing extreme climate change-related events such as floods and droughts and its possible impacts on ecosystem, livelihood, agriculture, livestock, and biodiversity are expected. Rainfall variability is a threat to food production in the Blue Nile Basin countries. This study investigates the long-term variations and trends of seasonal and annual precipitation over the Blue Nile Basin for 102-year period (1901-2002). Six statistical trend analysis of precipitation was performed with nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator. On the other hands, four statistical absolute homogeneity tests: Standard Normal Homogeneity Test, Buishand Range test, Pettitt test and the Von Neumann ratio test were applied to test the homogeneity of the rainfall data, using XLSTAT software, which results of p-valueless than alpha=0.05, were significant. The percentages of significant trends obtained for each parameter in the different seasons are presented. The study recommends adaptation strategies to be streamlined to relevant policies, enhancing local farmers’ adaptive capacity for facing future climate change effects.

Keywords: Blue Nile basin, climate change, Mann-Kendall test, trend analysis

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Authors: Sobiya George, Anna Dora Gudmundsdottir

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The 2-hydroxychalcones form an important group of organic compounds not only because of their pharmacological properties but also because they are intermediates in the biosynthesis of flavanones. We studied the photoreactivity of 2-hydroxychalcone derivatives in aprotic solvent acetonitrile and found that their photochemistry is concentration-dependent. Irradiation of 2-hydroxychalcone derivatives with 365 nm light emitting diode (LED) in dilute concentration selectively forms flavanones, whereas, at higher concentrations, an additional photoproduct is observed. However, the application of the continuous photo-flow method resulted in the selective formation of flavanones even at higher concentrations. To understand the reaction mechanism and explain the concentration-dependent photoreactivity of 2-hydroxychalcones, we preformed trapping studies with tris(trimethylsilyl)silane, nanosecond laser flash photolysis, and time dependent-density functional theory (TD-DFT) calculations.

Keywords: flavanones, hydroxychalcones, laser flash photolysis, TD-DFT calculations

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Authors: Rong Guo, Mengshi Huang, Yujing Bai

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With the rapid development of urbanization, the urban population increases and urban sprawl appeared. And these issues led to a sharp deterioration of the ecological environment. So, the urban ecological security evaluation was imminent. The weights identify of index was a key step of the research of ecological security evaluation. The AHP was widely used in the extensive research of weights identify of ecological security index. The characteristics of authority and quantitative can fully reflect the views of relevant experts. On the basis of building the ecological security evaluation index of Harbin, the paper combed and used the basic principle of the AHP, and calculated the weights of Harbin ecological security evaluation index through the process of the expert opinions “summary-feedback-summary”. And lay a foundation of future study of Harbin ecological security index, and guide the quantitative evaluation of Harbin ecological security.

Keywords: AHP, ecological security, evaluation Index, weights identify, harbin

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Authors: Claudineia Brazil, Elison Eduardo Bierhals, Francisco Pereira, José Leandro Néris, Matheus Rippel, Luciane Salvi

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The global concern about climate change has been increasing, since the emission of gases from human activities contributes to the greenhouse effect in the atmosphere, indicating significant impacts to the planet in the coming years. The study of precipitation regime is fundamental for the development of research in several areas. Among them are hydrology, agriculture, and electric sector. Using the climatic projections of the models belonging to the CMIP5, the main objective of the paper was to present an analysis of the impacts of climate change without rainfall in the Uruguay River basin. After an analysis of the results, it can be observed that for the future climate, there is a tendency, in relation to the present climate, for larger numbers of dry events, mainly in the winter months, changing the pluviometric regime for wet summers and drier winters. Given this projected framework, it is important to note the importance of adequate management of the existing water sources in the river basin, since the value of rainfall is reduced for the next years, it may compromise the dynamics of the ecosystems in the region. Facing climate change is fundamental issue for regions and cities all around the world. Society must improve its resilience to phenomenon impacts, and spreading the knowledge among decision makers and citizens is also essential. So, these research results can be subsidies for the decision-making in planning and management of mitigation measures and/or adaptation in south Brazil.

Keywords: climate change, hydrological potential, precipitation, mitigation

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Authors: Armagan Gokcearslan

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The art of animation has developed very rapidly from the aspects of script, sound and music, motion, character design, techniques being used and technological tools being developed since the first years until today. Technical variety attracts a particular attention in the art of animation. Being perceived as a kind of illusion in the beginning; animations commonly used the Flash Sketch technique. Animations artists using the Flash Sketch technique created scenes by drawing them on a blackboard with chalk. The Flash Sketch technique was used by primary animation artists like Emile Cohl, Winsor McCay ande Blackton. And then tools like Magical Lantern, Thaumatrope, Phenakisticope, and Zeotrap were developed and started to be used intensely in the first years of the art of animation. Today, on the other hand, the art of animation is affected by developments in the computer technology. It is possible to create three-dimensional and two-dimensional animations with the help of various computer software. Cut-out technique is among the important techniques being used in the art of animation. Cut-out animation technique is based on the art of paper cutting. Examining cut-out animations; it is observed that they technically resemble the art of paper cutting. The art of paper cutting has a rooted history. It is possible to see the oldest samples of paper cutting in the People’s Republic of China in the period after the 2. century B.C. when the Chinese invented paper. The most popular artist using the cut-out animation technique is the German artist Lotte Reiniger. This study titled “Cut-out Animation as a Technic and Development Inside History Process” will embrace the art of paper cutting, the relationship between the art of paper cutting and cut-out animation, its development within the historical process, animation artists producing artworks in this field, important cut-out animations, and their technical properties.

Keywords: cut-out, paper art, animation, technic

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Authors: V. Nagaraju, G. Murali, Nagarjunavarma Ganna, Atluri Pavan Kalyan, N. Sree Sai Ganesh, V. S. V. S. Badrinath

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The present work focuses on the development of a mathematical model for the yield obtained by single slope solar still incorporated with cylindrical pipes filled with sand. The mathematical results obtained were validated with the experimental results for the 3 cm of water level at the basin. The mathematical model and results obtained with the experimental investigation are within 11% of deviation. The theoretical model to predict the yield obtained due to the capillary effect was proposed first. And then, to predict the total yield obtained, the thermal effect model was integrated with the capillary effect model. With the obtained results, it is understood that the yield obtained is more in the case of solar stills with sand-filled cylindrical pipes when compared to solar stills without sand-filled cylindrical pipes. And later model was used for predicting yield for 1 cm and 2 cm of water levels at the basin. And it is observed that the maximum yield was obtained for a 1 cm water level at the basin. It means solar still produces better yield with the lower depth of water level at the basin; this may be because of the availability of more space in the sand for evaporation.

Keywords: solar still, cylindrical pipes, still efficiency, mathematical modeling, capillary effect model, yield, solar desalination

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