Search results for: conditional mean time to failure

Authors: Elham Taghizadeh, Mostafa Abedzadeh, Mostafa Setak

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Logistics network is expected that opened facilities work continuously for a long time horizon without any failure; but in real world problems, facilities may face disruptions. This paper studies a reliable joint inventory location problem to optimize cost of facility locations, customers’ assignment, and inventory management decisions when facilities face failure risks and doesn’t work. In our model we assume when a facility is out of work, its customers may be reassigned to other operational facilities otherwise they must endure high penalty costs associated with losing service. For defining the model closer to real world problems, the model is proposed based on p-median problem and the facilities are considered to have limited capacities. We define a new binary variable (Z_is) for showing that customers are not assigned to any facilities. Our problem involve a bi-objective model; the first one minimizes the sum of facility construction costs and expected inventory holding costs, the second one function that mention for the first one is minimizes maximum expected customer costs under normal and failure scenarios. For solving this model we use NSGAII and MOSS algorithms have been applied to find the pareto- archive solution. Also Response Surface Methodology (RSM) is applied for optimizing the NSGAII Algorithm Parameters. We compare performance of two algorithms with three metrics and the results show NSGAII is more suitable for our model.

Keywords: joint inventory-location problem, facility location, NSGAII, MOSS

Procedia PDF Downloads 525

Authors: Gadisa Alemayehu, Muralidhar Avvari, Atkilt Mulu G.

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Since 1962 EC, the Faffa Food Share Company has been producing and supplying flour (famix) and value-added flour (baby food) in Ethiopia. It meets nearly all of the country's total flour demand, both for relief and commercial markets. However, it is incompetent in the international market due to a poor maintenance management system. The results of recorded documents and stopwatches revealed that frequent failure machines, as well as a poor maintenance management system, cause increased production downtimes, resulting in a 29.19 percent decrease in production from the planned production. As a result, the current study's goal is to recommend newly developed software for use in and as a Computerized Maintenance Management System (CMMS). As a result, the system increases machine reliability and decreases the frequency of equipment failure, reducing breakdown time and maintenance costs. The company's overall manufacturing performance improved by 4.45 percent, particularly after the implementation of the CMMS.

Keywords: CMMS, manufacturing performance, delivery, availability, flexibility, Faffa Food Share Company

Procedia PDF Downloads 137

Authors: Karima Kimouche

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In this paper, we consider the asymptotic problems in spectral analysis of stationary causal random fields. We impose conditions only involving (conditional) moments, which are easily verifiable for a variety of nonlinear random fields. Limiting distributions of periodograms and smoothed periodogram spectral density estimates are obtained and applications to the spectral domain bootstrap are given.

Keywords: spatial nonlinear processes, spectral estimators, GMC condition, bootstrap method

Procedia PDF Downloads 453

Authors: Amruta D. S. Pathare, Indira Hinduja, Kusum Zaveri

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Implantation failure (IF) even after the good-quality embryo transfer (ET) in the physiologically normal endometrium is the main obstacle in in vitro fertilization (IVF). Various microarray studies have been performed worldwide to elucidate the genes requisite for endometrial receptivity. These studies have included the population based on different phases of menstrual cycle during natural cycle and stimulated cycle in normal fertile women. Additionally, the literature is also available in recurrent implantation failure patients versus oocyte donors in natural cycle. However, for the first time, we aim to study the genomics of endometrial receptivity in IF patients under controlled ovarian stimulation (COS) during which ET is generally practised in IVF. Endometrial gene expression profiling in IF patients (n=10) and oocyte donors (n=8) were compared during window of implantation under COS by whole genome microarray (using Illumina platform). Enrichment analysis of microarray data was performed to determine dys-regulated biological functions and pathways using Database for Annotation, Visualization and Integrated Discovery, v6.8 (DAVID). The enrichment mapping was performed with the help of Cytoscape software. Microarray results were validated by real-time PCR. Localization of genes related to immune response (Progestagen-Associated Endometrial Protein (PAEP), Leukaemia Inhibitory Factor (LIF), Interleukin-6 Signal Transducer (IL6ST) was detected by immunohistochemistry. The study revealed 418 genes downregulated and 519 genes upregulated in IF patients compared to healthy fertile controls. The gene ontology, pathway analysis and enrichment mapping revealed significant downregulation in activation and regulation of immune and inflammation response in IF patients under COS. The lower expression of Progestagen Associated Endometrial Protein (PAEP), Leukemia Inhibitory Factor (LIF) and Interleukin 6 Signal Transducer (IL6ST) in cases compared to controls by real time and immunohistochemistry suggests the functional importance of these genes. The study was proved useful to uncover the probable reason of implantation failure being imbalance of immune and inflammatory regulation in our group of subjects. Based on the present study findings, a panel of significant dysregulated genes related to immune and inflammatory pathways needs to be further substantiated in larger cohort in natural as well as stimulated cycle. Upon which these genes could be screened in IF patients during window of implantation (WOI) before going for embryo transfer or any other immunological treatment. This would help to estimate the regulation of specific immune response during WOI in a patient. The appropriate treatment of either activation of immune response or suppression of immune response can be then attempted in IF patients to enhance the receptivity of endometrium.

Keywords: endometrial receptivity, immune and inflammatory response, gene expression microarray, window of implantation

Procedia PDF Downloads 156

Authors: Urbi Pal, Piyas Palit, Jitendra Mathur, Abhay Chaturvedi, Sandip Bhattacharya

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The hot rolled slab lifting crane cable reel drum (CRD) failed due to failure of cable reel flat spring which are inside the cassette of CRD. CRD is used for the movement of tong cable. Stereoscopic observation revealed beach marks and Scanning Electron Microscopy showed striations confirming fatigue mode of failure. Chemical composition should be spring steel (Cr-Mo-V) as per IS 3431:1982 instead of C-Mn steel. To find out the reason of fatigue failure, the theoretical fatigue life of flat spiral spring has been calculated. The calculation of number of fatigue cycles included bending moment, maximum stress on the spring, ultimate tensile strength and alternative stress. The bending moment determination has been taken account with various parameters like Young’s Modulus, width, thickness, outer diameter, arbor diameter, pay out the length and angular deflection in rotations. With all the required data, the calculated fatigue life turned to be 10000 cycles, but the spring served 15000 cycles which clearly indicated beyond fatigue life usage. Different UTS values have been plotted with respect to the number of fatigue cycles and clearly showed that the increase in UTS by 40% increases fatigue life by 50%. The significance of higher UTS lied here, and higher UTS depends on modified chemistry with proper tempered martensite microstructure. This kind of failure can be easily avoided by changing the crane spring maintenance schedule from 2 years to 1.5 years considering 600 cycles per month. The plant has changed changing the schedule of cable reel spring and procured new flat reel spring made of 50CrV2 steel.

Keywords: cable reel spring, fatigue life, stress, spring steel

Procedia PDF Downloads 156

Authors: Chawarat Rotejanaprasert, Andrew Lawson

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Early detection of unusual health events depends on the ability to detect rapidly any substantial changes in disease, thus facilitating timely public health interventions. To assist public health practitioners to make decisions, statistical methods are adopted to assess unusual events in real time. We introduce a surveillance Kullback-Leibler (SKL) measure for timely detection of disease outbreaks for small area health data. The detection methods are compared with the surveillance conditional predictive ordinate (SCPO) within the framework of Bayesian hierarchical Poisson modeling and applied to a case study of a group of respiratory system diseases observed weekly in South Carolina counties. Properties of the proposed surveillance techniques including timeliness and detection precision are investigated using a simulation study.

Keywords: Bayesian, spatial, temporal, surveillance, prospective

Procedia PDF Downloads 311

Authors: Mohamed Osama Hassaan

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Recent earthquakes have demonstrated the vulnerability of older reinforced concrete buildings to fail under imposed seismic loads. Accordingly, the need to strengthen existing reinforced concrete structures, mainly columns, to resist high seismic loads has increased. Conventional strengthening techniques such as using steel plates, steel angles and concrete overlay are used to achieve the required increase in strength or ductility. However, techniques using advanced composite materials are established. The column's splice zone is the most critical zone that failed under seismic loads. There are three types of splice zone failure that can be observed under seismic action, namely, Failure of the flexural plastic hinge region, shear failure and failure due to short lap splice. A lapped splice transfers the force from one bar to another through the concrete surrounding both bars. At any point along the splice, force is transferred from one bar by a bond to the surrounding concrete and also by a bond to the other bar of the pair forming the splice. The integrity of the lap splice depends on the development of adequate bond length. The R.C. columns built in seismic regions are expected to undergo a large number of inelastic deformation cycles while maintaining the overall strength and stability of the structure. This can be ensured by proper confinement of the concrete core. The last type of failure is focused in this research. There are insufficient studies that address the problem of strengthening existing reinforced concrete columns at splice zone through confinement with “advanced composite materials". Accordingly, more investigation regarding the seismic behavior of strengthened reinforced concrete columns using the new generation of composite materials such as (Carbon fiber polymer), (Glass fiber polymer), (Armiad fiber polymer).

Keywords: strengthening, columns, advanced composite materials, earthquakes

Procedia PDF Downloads 78

Authors: Ali Shubbar, Hasanain Alwan, Ee Yu Phur, John McLoughlin, Ameer Al-khaykan

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This paper aims to investigate the structural behaviour of RC beams with circular openings of different sizes and locations modelled using ABAQUS FEM software. Seven RC beams with the dimensions of 1200 mm×150 mm×150 mm were tested under three-point loading. Group A consists of three RC beams incorporating circular openings with diameters of 40 mm, 55 mm and 65 mm in the shear zone. However, Group B consists of three RC beams incorporating circular openings with diameters of 40 mm, 55 mm and 65 mm in the flexural zone. The final RC beam did not have any openings, to provide a control beam for comparison. The results show that increasing the diameter of the openings increases the maximum deflection and the ultimate failure load decreases relative to the control beam. In the shear zone, the presence of the openings caused an increase in the maximum deflection ranging between 4% and 22% and a decrease in the ultimate failure load of between 26% and 36% compared to the control beam. However, the presence of the openings in the flexural zone caused an increase in the maximum deflection of between 1.5% and 19.7% and a decrease in the ultimate failure load of between 6% and 13% relative to the control beam. In this study, the optimum location for placing circular openings was found to be in the flexural zone of the beam with a diameter of less than 30% of the depth of the beam.

Keywords: ultimate failure load, maximum deflection, shear zone and flexural zone

Procedia PDF Downloads 275

Authors: Kamil Ganaev, Elina Vlasova, Andrei Shiryaev, Renat Akchurin

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De novo atrial fibrillation (AF) after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is a common complication. To date, there are no data on the possible effect of diffuse lesions of coronary arteries on the incidence of postoperative AF complications. Methods. Patients operated on-pump under hypothermic conditions during the calendar year (2020) were studied. Inclusion criteria - isolated CABG and achievement of complete myocardial revascularization. Patients with a history of AF moderate and severe valve dysfunction, hormonal thyroid pathology, initial CHF(Congestive heart failure), as well as patients with developed perioperative complications (IM, acute heart failure, massive blood loss) and deceased were excluded. Thus 227 patients were included; mean age 65±9 years; 69% were men. 89% of patients had a 3-vessel lesion of the coronary artery; the remainder had a 2-vessel lesion. Mean LV size: 3.9±0.3 cm, indexed LV volume: 29.4±5.3 mL/m2. Two groups were considered: D (n=98), patients with diffuse coronary heart disease, and L (n=129), patients with local coronary heart disease. Clinical and demographic characteristics in the groups were comparable. Rhythm assessment: continuous bedside ECG monitoring up to 5 days; ECG CT at 5-7 days after CABG; daily routine ECG registration. Follow-up period - postoperative hospital period. Results. The Median follow-up period was 9 (7;11) days. POFP (Postoperative atrial fibrillation) was detected in 61/227 (27%) patients: 34/98 (35%) in group D versus 27/129 (21%) in group L; p<0.05. Moreover, the values of revascularization index in groups D and L (3.9±0.7 and 3.8±0.5, respectively) were equal, and the mean time Cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) (107±27 and 80±13min), as well as the mean ischemic time (67±17 and 55±11min) were significantly longer in group D (p<0.05). However, a separate analysis of these parameters in patients with and without developed AF did not reveal any significant differences in group D (CPB time 99±21.2 min, ischemic time 63±12.2 min), or in group L (CPB time 88±13.1 min, ischemic time 58.7±13.2 min). Conclusion. With the diffuse nature of coronary lesions, the incidence of AF in the hospital period after isolated CABG definitely increases. To better understand the role of severe coronary atherosclerosis in the development of POAF, it is necessary to distinguish the influence of organic features of atrial and ventricular myocardium (as a consequence of chronic coronary disease) from the features of surgical correction in diffuse coronary lesions.

Keywords: atrial fibrillation, diffuse coronary artery disease, coronary artery bypass grafting, local coronary artery disease

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Authors: Weichao Yu, Kai Wen, Weihe Huang, Yang Yang, Jing Gong

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Metal-loss corrosion is a major threat to the safety and integrity of gas pipelines as it may result in the burst failures which can cause severe consequences that may include enormous economic losses as well as the personnel casualties. Therefore, it is important to ensure the corroding pipeline integrity and efficiency, considering the value of wall thickness, which plays an important role in the failure probability of corroding pipeline. Actually, the wall thickness is controlled during pipe purchase stage. For example, the API_SPEC_5L standard regulates the allowable tolerance of the wall thickness from the specified value during the pipe purchase. The allowable wall thickness tolerance will be used to determine the wall thickness distribution characteristic such as the mean value, standard deviation and distribution. Taking the uncertainties of the input variables in the burst limit-state function into account, the reliability approach rather than the deterministic approach will be used to evaluate the failure probability. Moreover, the cost of pipe purchase will be influenced by the allowable wall thickness tolerance. More strict control of the wall thickness usually corresponds to a higher pipe purchase cost. Therefore changing the wall thickness tolerance will vary both the probability of a burst failure and the cost of the pipe. This paper describes an approach to optimize the wall thickness tolerance considering both the safety and economy of corroding pipelines. In this paper, the corrosion burst limit-state function in Annex O of CSAZ662-7 is employed to evaluate the failure probability using the Monte Carlo simulation technique. By changing the allowable wall thickness tolerance, the parameters of the wall thickness distribution in the limit-state function will be changed. Using the reliability approach, the corresponding variations in the burst failure probability will be shown. On the other hand, changing the wall thickness tolerance will lead to a change in cost in pipe purchase. Using the variation of the failure probability and pipe cost caused by changing wall thickness tolerance specification, the optimal allowable tolerance can be obtained, and used to define pipe purchase specifications.

Keywords: allowable tolerance, corroding pipeline segment, operation cost, production cost, reliability approach

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Authors: Wei Zhao, Yuxuan Yao, Hao Chen

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In order to find out the mechanical properties and failure behavior of lithium-ion batteries, drop hammer impact experiments and finite element simulations are carried out on batteries with different packed angles. Firstly, a drop hammer impact experiment system, which is based on the DHR-1808 drop hammer and oscilloscope, is established, and then a drop test of individual batteries and packed angles of 180 ° and 120 ° are carried out. The image of battery deformation, force-time curve and voltage-time curve are recorded. Secondly, finite element models of individual batteries and two packed angles are established, and the results of the test and simulation are compared. Finally, the mechanical characteristics and failure behavior of lithium-ion battery modules with the packed arrangement of 6 * 6 and packing angles of 180 °, 120 °, 90 ° and 60 ° are analyzed under the same velocity with different battery packing angles, and the same impact energy with different impact velocity and different packing angles. The result shows that the individual battery is destroyed completely in the drop hammer impact test with an initial impact velocity of 3m/s and drop height of 459mm, and the voltage drops to close to 0V when the test ends. The voltage drops to 12V when packed angle of 180°, and 3.6V when packed angle of 120°. It is found that the trend of the force-time curve between simulation and experiment is generally consistent. The difference in maximum peak value is 3.9kN for a packing angle of 180° and 1.3kN for a packing angle of 120°. Under the same impact velocity and impact energy, the strain rate of the battery module with a packing angle of 180° is the lowest, and the maximum stress can reach 26.7MPa with no battery short-circuited. The research under our experiment and simulation shows that the lithium-ion battery module with a packing angle of 180 ° is the least likely to be damaged, which can sustain the maximum stress under the same impact load.

Keywords: battery module, finite element simulation, power battery, packing angle

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Authors: Ali Noorzad, Ehsan Badakhshan, Shima Zameni

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The present paper is focused on a generalized failure criterion for geomaterials with cross-anisotropy. The cyclic behavior of granular material primarily depends on the nature and arrangement of constituent particles, particle size, and shape that affect fabric anisotropy. To account for the influence of loading directions on strength variations, an anisotropic variable in terms of the invariants of the stress tensor and fabric into the failure criterion is proposed. In an extension to original CANAsand constitutive model two concepts namely critical state and compact state play paramount roles as all of the moduli and coefficients are related to these states. The applicability of the present model is evaluated through comparisons between the predicted and the measured results. All simulations have demonstrated that the proposed constitutive model is capable of modeling the cyclic behavior of sand with inherent anisotropy.

Keywords: fabric, cohesionless media, cyclic loading, critical state, compact state, CANAsand constitutive model

Procedia PDF Downloads 219

Authors: Sameh Ibrahim Ghali Hanna

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Information system (IS) are fairly crucial in the operation of private and public establishments in growing and developed international locations. Growing countries are saddled with many project failures throughout the implementation of records systems. However, successful information systems are greatly wished for in developing nations in an effort to decorate their economies. This paper is extraordinarily critical in view of the high failure fee of data structures in growing nations, which desire to be decreased to minimal proper levels by means of advocated interventions. This paper centers on a review of IS development in developing international locations. The paper gives evidence of the IS successes and screw-ups in developing nations and posits a version to deal with the IS failures. The proposed model can then be utilized by means of growing nations to lessen their IS mission implementation failure fee. A contrast is drawn between IS improvement in growing international locations and evolved international locations. The paper affords valuable records to assist in decreasing IS failure, and growing IS models and theories on IS development for developing countries.

Keywords: research information systems (RIS), research information, heterogeneous sources, data quality, data cleansing, science system, standardization artificial intelligence, AI, enterprise information system, EIS, integration developing countries, information systems, IS development, information systems failure, information systems success, information systems success model

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Authors: Samuel Akinlabi Ola, Emeka Segun Nnochiri, Stephen Kayode Aderomose, Paul Ayesemhe Edoh

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Fadama soils of Northern Nigeria are generally a problem soil for highway and geotechnical engineers. There has been no consistent conclusion on the effect of the strain rate on the shear strength of soils, thus necessitating the need to clarify this issue with various types of soil. Consolidated undrained tests with pore pressure measurements were conducted at optimum moisture content and maximum dry density using standard proctor compaction. Back pressures were applied to saturate the soil. The shear strength parameters were determined. Analyzing the results and model studies using the Rate Process Theory, functional relationships between the deviator stress and strain rate were determined and expressed mathematically as deviator stress = β0+ β1 log(strain rate) at each cell pressure where β0 and β1 are constants. Also, functional relationships between the pore pressure coefficient Āf and the time to failure were determined and expressed mathematically as pore pressure coefficient, Āf = ψ0+ѱ1log (time to failure) where ψ0 and ѱ1 are constants. For cell pressure between 69 – 310 kN/m2 (10 - 45psi) the constants found for Fadama soil in this study are ψ0=0.17 and ѱ1=0.18. The study also shows the dependence of the angle of friction (ø’) on the rate of strain as it increases from 22o to 25o for an increase in the rate of strain from 0.08%/min to 1.0%/min. Conclusively, the study also shows that within the strain rate utilized in the research, the deviator strength increased with the strain rate while the excess pore water pressure decreased with an increase in the rate of strain.

Keywords: deviator stress, Fadama soils, pore pressure coefficient, rate process

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Authors: Daniel Thompson, Sophie Cerutti, Muhammad Peerbux, Hansraj Bookun

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Introduction: Diabetic nephropathy is the leading cause end stage renal failure in Australia, responsible for 36% of cases. Patients who require dialysis may be suitable for haemodialysis through an arteriovenous fistula (AVF), and preoperatively careful planning is required to select suitable vessels for a long-lasting fistula that provides suitable dialysis access. Due to high levels of vascular disease in diabetic patients, we sought to investigate whether there is a difference in the types of autologous AVFs created for diabetic patients in renal failure compared to their non-diabetic counterparts. Method: Data was collected from the Australasian Vascular Audit, for all vascular surgery completed at St. Vincent’s Hospital Melbourne between 2011-2020. Patients were selected by operative type, creation of AVF, and compared in two groups, diabetic patients and patients without diabetes. Chi-squared test was utilised to determine significance. Results: Data analysis is ongoing and will be complete with updated abstract in time for the conference. Discussion: Diabetic nephropathy is the cause for roughly a third of end stage renal failure in Australia. Diabetic patients present with a unique set of challenges when it comes to dialysis access due to increased risk of peripheral vascular disease and arterial calcification. Care must be taken in the creation of fistulas to minimise complications and increase the chance of long-lasting access. Our study investigates the difference in autologous AVFs between diabetics and non-diabetics, and results may be used to influence location of fistula creation. Further research may be used to investigate patency rates of fistulas in diabetics vs non-diabetics which would further influence treatment decisions.

Keywords: dialysis, diabetes, renal access, fistula

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Essadik Kerkar, Abdelhamid Hebbouche

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According to the randomness of most of the factors affecting the stability of a gravity dam, probability theory is generally used to TESTING the risk of failure and there is a confusing logical transition from the state of stability failed state, so the stability failure process is considered as a probable event. The control of risk of product failures is of capital importance for the control from a cross analysis of the gravity of the consequences and effects of the probability of occurrence of identified major accidents and can incur a significant risk to the concrete dam structures. Probabilistic risk analysis models are used to provide a better understanding the reliability and structural failure of the works, including when calculating stability of large structures to a major risk in the event of an accident or breakdown. This work is interested in the study of the probability of failure of concrete dams through the application of the reliability analysis methods including the methods used in engineering. It is in our case of the use of level II methods via the study limit state. Hence, the probability of product failures is estimated by analytical methods of the type FORM (First Order Reliability Method), SORM (Second Order Reliability Method). By way of comparison, a second level III method was used which generates a full analysis of the problem and involving an integration of the probability density function of, random variables are extended to the field of security by using of the method of Mont-Carlo simulations. Taking into account the change in stress following load combinations: normal, exceptional and extreme the acting on the dam, calculation results obtained have provided acceptable failure probability values which largely corroborate the theory, in fact, the probability of failure tends to increase with increasing load intensities thus causing a significant decrease in strength, especially in the presence of combinations of unique and extreme loads. Shear forces then induce a shift threatens the reliability of the structure by intolerable values of the probability of product failures. Especially, in case THE increase of uplift in a hypothetical default of the drainage system.

Keywords: dam, failure, limit state, monte-carlo, reliability, probability, sliding, Taylor

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Authors: Yousaf Tariq

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There are many reasons which are involved in electronic equipment failure i.e. temperature, humidity, dust, smoke etc. Corrosive gases are also one of the factor which may involve in failure of equipment. Sensitivity of electronic equipment increased when “lead-free” regulation enforced on manufacturers. In data center, equipment like hard disk, servers, printed circuit boards etc. have been exposed to gaseous contamination due to increase in sensitivity. There is a worldwide standard to protect electronic industrial electronic from corrosive gases. It is well known as “ANSI/ISA S71.04 – 1985 - Environmental Conditions for Control Systems: Airborne Contaminants. ASHRAE Technical Committee (TC) 9.9 members also recommended ISA standard in their whitepaper on Gaseous and Particulate Contamination Guideline for data centers. TC 9.9 members represented some of the major IT equipment manufacturers e.g. IBM, HP, Cisco etc. As per standard practices, first step is to monitor air quality in data center. If contamination level shows more than G1, it means that gas-phase air filtration is required other than dust/smoke air filtration. It is important that outside fresh air entering in data center should have pressurization/re-circulated process in order to absorb corrosive gases and to maintain level within specified limit. It is also important that air quality monitoring should be conducted once in a year. Temperature and humidity should also be monitored as per standard practices to maintain level within specified limit.

Keywords: corrosive gases, corrosion, electronic equipment failure, ASHRAE, hard disk

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Authors: Souvik Das, Sandip Bhattacharya, Goutam Mukhopadhyay, Manashi Adhikary

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Wires breakages during cold drawing are a complex phenomenon; wire breakages may be induced by improper wire-rod quality, inappropriate heat-treated microstructure, and/or lubrication breakdown on the wire surface. A comprehensive metallurgical investigation of failed/broken wire samples is therefore essential for understanding the origin of failure. Frequent breakage of wires during drawing is a matter of serious concern to the wire drawers as it erodes their already slim margins through reduced productivity and loss in yield. The present paper highlights the failure investigation of wires of Low Relaxation Prestressed High Carbon grade during cold drawing due to entrapment of hard constituents detached from the roller entry guide during rolling operations. The hardness measurement of this entrapped location indicates 54.9 Rockwell Hardness as against the rest portion 33.4 Rockwell Hardness. The microstructure chemical analysis and X-ray mapping analysis data of the entrapment location confirmed complex chromium carbide originated from D2-steel used in entry guide during the rolling process. Since the harder entrapped phase could not be deformed in the same manner as the parent phase, the failure of the wire rod occurs during hot rolling.

Keywords: LRPC, D2-steel, chromium carbide, roller guide

Procedia PDF Downloads 159

Authors: Marimuthu Gurusamy

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In vibration analysis (with accelerometers) of rotating machines with rolling element bearing, the customers are interested to know the failure of the machine well in advance to plan the spare inventory and maintenance. But in real world most of the machines fails before the prediction of vibration analyst or Expert analysis software. Presently the prediction of failure is based on ISO 10816 vibration limits only. But this is not enough to monitor the failure of machines well in advance. Because more than 50% of the machines will fail even the vibration readings are within acceptable zone as per ISO 10816.Hence it requires further detail analysis and different techniques to predict the failure well in advance. In vibration Analysis, the velocity spectrum is used to analyse the root cause of the mechanical problems like unbalance, misalignment and looseness etc. The envelope spectrum are used to analyse the bearing frequency components, hence the failure in inner race, outer race and rolling elements are identified. But so far there is no correlation made between these two concepts. The author used both velocity spectrum and Envelope spectrum to analyse the machine behaviour and bearing condition to correlated the changes in dynamic load (by unbalance, misalignment and looseness etc.) and effect of impact on the bearing. Hence we could able to predict the expected life of the machine and bearings in the rotating equipment (with rolling element bearings). Also we used process parameters like temperature, flow and pressure to correlate with flow induced vibration and load variations, when abnormal vibration occurs due to changes in process parameters. Hence by correlation of velocity spectrum, envelope spectrum and process data with 20 years of experience in vibration analysis, the author could able to predict the rotating Equipment and its component’s deterioration and expected duration for maintenance.

Keywords: vibration analysis, velocity spectrum, envelope spectrum, prediction of deterioration

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Authors: Belabed Lazhar

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The dimensioning of the anchored retaining screens passes always by the analysis of their stability. The calculation of anchoring lengths is practically carried out according to the mechanical model suggested by Kranz which is often criticized. The safety is evaluated through the comparison of interior force and external force. The force of anchoring over the length cut behind the failure solid is neglected. The failure surface cuts anchoring in the medium length of sealing. In this article, one proposes a new mechanical model which overcomes these disadvantages (simplifications) and gives interesting results.

Keywords: retaining walls, anchoring, stability, mechanical modeling, safety

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Authors: Mark P. Mayala, Henry Mayala, Khuzeima Khanbhai

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Background: Heart failure has been a rising concern in Tanzania. New drugs have been introduced, including the group of drugs called Angiotensin receptor Neprilysin Inhibitor (ARNI), but due to their high cost, angiotensin-converting enzymes inhibitors (ACEIs) and Angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) have been mostly used in Tanzania. However, according to our knowledge, the efficacy comparison of the two groups is yet to be studied in Tanzania. The aim of this study was to compare the efficacy of ACEIs and ARBs among patients with heart failure. Methodology: This was a hospital-based prospective cohort study done at Jakaya Kikwete Cardiac Institution (JKCI), Tanzania, from June to December 2020. Consecutive enrollment was done until fulfilling the inclusion criteria. Clinical details were measured at baseline. We assessed the relationship between ARBs and ACEIs users with N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT pro-BNP) levels at admission and at 1-month follow-up using a chi-square test. A Kaplan-Meier curve was used to estimate the survival time of the two groups. Results: 155 HF patients were enrolled, with a mean age of 48 years, whereby 52.3% were male, and their mean left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) was 37.3%. 52 (33.5%) heart failure patients were on ACEIs, 57 (36.8%) on ARBs, and 46 (29.7%) were neither using ACEIs nor ARBs. At least half of the patients did not receive a guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT), with only 82 (52.9%) receiving a GDMT. A drop in NT pro-BNP levels was observed during admission and at 1-month follow-up on both groups, from 6389.2 pg/ml to 4000.1 pg/ml for ARB users and 5877.7 pg/ml to 1328.2 pg/ml for the ACEIs users. There was no statistical difference between the two groups when estimated by the Kaplan-Meier curve, though more deaths were observed in those who were neither on ACEIs nor ARBs, with a calculated P value of 0.01. Conclusion: This study demonstrates that ACEIs have more efficacy and overall better clinical outcome than ARBs, but this should be taken under the patient-based case, considering the side effects of ACEIs and patients’ adherence.

Keywords: angiotensin converting enzymes inhibitors, angiotensin receptor blockers, guideline direct medical therapy, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide

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Authors: Majid Samiee Zonoozian

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For such important constructions as jacket type platforms, scrupulous attention in analysis, design and calculation processes is needed. The reliability assessment method has been established into an extensively used method to behavior safety calculation of jacket platforms. In the present study, a methodology for the reliability calculation of an offshore jacket platform in contradiction of the extreme wave loading state is available. Therefore, sensitivity analyses are applied to acquire the nonlinear response of jacket-type platforms against extreme waves. The jacket structure is modeled by applying a nonlinear finite-element model with regards to the tubular members' behave. The probability of a member’s failure under extreme wave loading is figured by a finite-element reliability code. The FORM and SORM approaches are applied for the calculation of safety directories and reliability indexes have been detected. A case study for a fixed jacket-type structure positioned in the Persian Gulf is studied by means of the planned method. Furthermore, to define the failure standards, equations suggested by the 21st version of the API RP 2A-WSD for The jacket-type structures’ tubular members designing by applying the mixed axial bending and axial pressure. Consequently, the effect of wave Loades in the reliability index was considered.

Keywords: Jacket-Type structure, reliability, failure probability, tubular members

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Authors: Hossein Kheirollahi, Yunhua Luo

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Studying stress and strain trends in the femur and recognizing femur failure mechanism is very important for preventing hip fracture in the elderly. The aim of this study was to identify high stress and strain regions in the femur during normal walking and falling to find the mechanical behavior and failure mechanism of the femur. We developed a finite element model of the femur from the subject’s quantitative computed tomography (QCT) image and used it to identify potentially high stress and strain regions during the single-leg stance and the sideways fall. It was found that fracture may initiate from the superior region of femoral neck and propagate to the inferior region during a high impact force such as sideways fall. The results of this study showed that the femur bone is more sensitive to strain than stress which indicates the effect of strain, in addition to effect of stress, should be considered for failure analysis.

Keywords: finite element analysis, hip fracture, strain, stress

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Authors: Rachid Belhachemi, Pierre Rostan, Alexandra Rostan

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This paper develops a discrete-time option pricing model for index options. The model consists of two key ingredients. First, daily stock return innovations are driven by a continuous hidden threshold mixed skew-normal (HTSN) distribution which generates conditional non-normality that is needed to fit daily index return. The most important feature of the HTSN is the inclusion of a latent state variable with a continuum of states, unlike the traditional mixture distributions where the state variable is discrete with little number of states. The HTSN distribution belongs to the class of univariate probability distributions where parameters of the distribution capture the dependence between the variable of interest and the continuous latent state variable (the regime). The distribution has an interpretation in terms of a mixture distribution with time-varying mixing probabilities. It has been shown empirically that this distribution outperforms its main competitor, the mixed normal (MN) distribution, in terms of capturing the stylized facts known for stock returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence. Second, heteroscedasticity in the model is captured by a threeexogenous-factor GARCH model (GARCHX), where the factors are taken from the principal components analysis of various world indices and presents an application to option pricing. The factors of the GARCHX model are extracted from a matrix of world indices applying principal component analysis (PCA). The empirically determined factors are uncorrelated and represent truly different common components driving the returns. Both factors and the eight parameters inherent to the HTSN distribution aim at capturing the impact of the state of the economy on price levels since distribution parameters have economic interpretations in terms of conditional volatilities and correlations of the returns with the hidden continuous state. The PCA identifies statistically independent factors affecting the random evolution of a given pool of assets -in our paper a pool of international stock indices- and sorting them by order of relative importance. The PCA computes a historical cross asset covariance matrix and identifies principal components representing independent factors. In our paper, factors are used to calibrate the HTSN-GARCHX model and are ultimately responsible for the nature of the distribution of random variables being generated. We benchmark our model to the MN-GARCHX model following the same PCA methodology and the standard Black-Scholes model. We show that our model outperforms the benchmark in terms of RMSE in dollar losses for put and call options, which in turn outperforms the analytical Black-Scholes by capturing the stylized facts known for index returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence.

Keywords: continuous hidden threshold, factor models, GARCHX models, option pricing, risk-premium

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Authors: Vipin Kumar Singhal, Rohit Kumar Mittal, Pavitra Ranjan Maiti

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Damage analysis is one of the preliminary activities to be done after an earthquake so as to enhance the seismic building design technologies and prevent similar type of failure in future during earthquakes. This research article investigates the damage pattern and most probable reason of failure by observing photographs of seven major buildings collapsed/damaged which were evenly spread over the region during Mw7.8, Nepal earthquake 2015 followed by more than 400 aftershocks of Mw4 with one aftershock reaching a magnitude of Mw7.3. Over 250,000 buildings got damaged, and more than 9000 people got injured in this earthquake. Photographs of these buildings were collected after the earthquake and the cause of failure was estimated along with the severity of damage and comment on the reparability of structure has been made. Based on observations, it was concluded that the damage in reinforced concrete buildings was less compared to masonry structures. The number of buildings damaged was high near Kathmandu region due to high building density in that region. This type of damage analysis can be used as a cost effective and quick method for damage assessment during earthquakes.

Keywords: Nepal earthquake, damage analysis, damage assessment, damage scales

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Authors: Kongrat Nokkaew

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This article assessed the surface erosion and stability of cut and fill slope in the excavation of the detention basin, Kalasin Province, Thailand. The large excavation project was built to enlarge detention basin for relieving repeated flooding and drought which usually happen in this area. However, at the end of the 1st rainstorm season, severely erosions slope failures were widespread observed. After investigation, the severity of erosions and slope failure were classified into five level from sheet erosion (Level 1), rill erosion (Level 2, 3), gully erosion (Level 4), and slope failure (Level 5) for proposing slope remediation. The preliminary investigation showed that lack of runoff control were the major factors of the surface erosions while insufficient compacted of the fill slope leaded to slopes failures. The slope stability of four selected slope failure was back calculated by using Simplified Bishop with Seep-W. The result show that factor of safety of slope located on non-plasticity sand was less than one, representing instability of the embankment slope. Such analysis agreed well with the failures observed in the field.

Keywords: surface erosion, slope stability, detention basin, cut and fill

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Authors: Abdulaziz Alakeel, Roaa Alamri, Abdulrahman Alomair, Mohammed Fouda

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Introduction: Ibrutinib is a selective, potent, and irreversible small-molecule inhibitor of Bruton's tyrosine kinase (BTK). It forms a covalent bond with a cysteine residue (CYS-481) at the active site of Btk, leading to inhibition of Btk enzymatic activity. The drug is indicated to treat certain type of cancers such as mantle cell lymphoma (MCL), chronic lymphocytic leukaemia and Waldenström's macroglobulinaemia (WM). Cardiac failure is a condition referred to inability of heart muscle to pump adequate blood to human body organs. There are multiple types of cardiac failure including left and right-sided heart failure, systolic and diastolic heart failures. The aim of this review is to evaluate the risk of cardiac failure associated with the use of ibrutinib and to suggest regulatory recommendations if required. Methodology: Signal Detection team at the National Pharmacovigilance Center (NPC) of Saudi Food and Drug Authority (SFDA) performed a comprehensive signal review using its national database as well as the World Health Organization (WHO) database (VigiBase), to retrieve related information for assessing the causality between cardiac failure and ibrutinib. We used the WHO- Uppsala Monitoring Centre (UMC) criteria as standard for assessing the causality of the reported cases. Results: Case Review: The number of resulted cases for the combined drug/adverse drug reaction are 212 global ICSRs as of July 2020. The reviewers have selected and assessed the causality for the well-documented ICSRs with completeness scores of 0.9 and above (35 ICSRs); the value 1.0 presents the highest score for best-written ICSRs. Among the reviewed cases, more than half of them provides supportive association (four probable and 15 possible cases). Data Mining: The disproportionality of the observed and the expected reporting rate for drug/adverse drug reaction pair is estimated using information component (IC), a tool developed by WHO-UMC to measure the reporting ratio. Positive IC reflects higher statistical association while negative values indicates less statistical association, considering the null value equal to zero. The results of (IC=1.5) revealed a positive statistical association for the drug/ADR combination, which means “Ibrutinib” with “Cardiac Failure” have been observed more than expected when compared to other medications available in WHO database. Conclusion: Health regulators and health care professionals must be aware for the potential risk of cardiac failure associated with ibrutinib and the monitoring of any signs or symptoms in treated patients is essential. The weighted cumulative evidences identified from causality assessment of the reported cases and data mining are sufficient to support a causal association between ibrutinib and cardiac failure.

Keywords: cardiac failure, drug safety, ibrutinib, pharmacovigilance, signal detection

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Authors: Nane Giloyan

Abstract:

The rapid development of social networks in the 21st century increases the interests towards the role and impact of social media on the success or failure of a revolution. Even though studies are investigating the role of social media on the outcome of a revolution, still, the conclusions on this matter are ambiguous so far. Hence, this research aims to investigate the role of social media in the success or failure of a revolution and make a contribution to the literature gap. The study aims to examine the research question whether the use of social media explains the success or failure of revolutions in 2008 and 2018 in Armenia. The research question is investigated through content analysis of two cases; failed revolution in 2008 and the successful revolution in 2018 in Armenia. The secondary data analysis was based on information devoted to two revolutions using local and major international news articles, journal and critical articles, in Armenian, Russian and English, also videos, posts and live streams of the revolutionary leaders. There can be many factors explaining the success or failure of a revolution. However, the investigation of the factors and their role to explain the outcome of a revolution other than the use of social media is beyond the scope of this research study. The study holds other variables constant and concludes that in the cases of 2008 and 2018 revolutions in Armenia the mobilization of society through social media explains the differences in the outcomes (failed or successful). The comparative case study of the revolutions in 2008 and 2018 in Armenia emphasizes the important role and impact of the use of social media on the success or failure of a revolution. The results highlight that the use of the Internet, particularly social media and live streams, by the opposition was the essential difference between two revolutions. Social media platforms, live streams, and communication apps that were absent in the revolutionary situation in 2008 were fundamental to the Armenian Velvet Revolution in 2018. The changes in the situation in favor of the opposition, so the outcome of the protests, were mainly based on the Internet-based mobilization of the society. It is also important to take into consideration that the country experienced a great increase in penetration rates over the decade. The percentage of access to the Internet drastically increased between 2008 and 2018. This fact may help to have a clearer understanding of the use of the Internet and social media by the opposition and the reliance on social media by society. According to the results of the continent analysis, the use of social media to direct the protests and to mobilize the society, have a vital role and positive impact on the outcome of a revolution. Thus the study concludes that it is the use of social media to initiate, organize, and direct the protests that explain the success or failure of two Armenian revolutions.

Keywords: social media, revolution, Armenia, success, failure

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Authors: Nabiha Bouafia, Asma Ben Cheikh, Asma Ammar, Olfa Ezzi, Mohamed Mahjoub, Khaoula Meddeb, Imed Chouchene, Hamadi Boussarsar, Mansour Njah

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Background: Hospital acquired infections (HAI) cause significant morbidity, mortality, length of stay and hospital costs, especially in the intensive care unit (ICU), because of the debilitated immune systems of their patients and exposure to invasive devices. The aims of this study were to determine the rate and the risk factors of HAI in an ICU of a university hospital in Tunisia. Materials/Methods: A prospective study was conducted in the 8-bed adult medical ICU of a University Hospital (Sousse Tunisia) during 14 months from September 15th, 2015 to November 15th, 2016. Patients admitted for more than 48h were included. Their surveillance was stopped after the discharge from ICU or death. HAIs were defined according to standard Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria. Risk factors were analyzed by conditional stepwise logistic regression. The p-value of < 0.05 was considered significant. Results: During the study, 192 patients had admitted for more than 48 hours. Their mean age was 59.3± 18.20 years and 57.1% were male. Acute respiratory failure was the main reason of admission (72%). The mean SAPS II score calculated at admission was 32.5 ± 14 (range: 6 - 78). The exposure to the mechanical ventilation (MV) and the central venous catheter were observed in 169 (88 %) and 144 (75 %) patients, respectively. Seventy-three patients (38.02%) developed 94 HAIs. The incidence density of HAIs was 41.53 per 1000 patient day. Mortality rate in patients with HAIs was 65.8 %( n= 48). Regarding the type of infection, Ventilator Associated Pneumoniae (VAP) and central venous catheter Associated Infections (CVC AI) were the most frequent with Incidence density: 14.88/1000 days of MV for VAP and 20.02/1000 CVC days for CVC AI. There were 5 Peripheral Venous Catheter Associated Infections, 2 urinary tract infections, and 21 other HAIs. Gram-negative bacteria were the most common germs identified in HAIs: Multidrug resistant Acinetobacter Baumanii (45%) and Klebsiella pneumoniae (10.96%) were the most frequently isolated. Univariate analysis showed that transfer from another hospital department (p= 0.001), intubation (p < 10-4), tracheostomy (p < 10-4), age (p=0.028), grade of acute respiratory failure (p=0.01), duration of sedation (p < 10-4), number of CVC (p < 10-4), length of mechanical ventilation (p < 10-4) and length of stay (p < 10-4), were associated to high risk of HAIS in ICU. Multivariate analysis reveals that independent risk factors for HAIs are: transfer from another hospital department: OR=13.44, IC 95% [3.9, 44.2], p < 10-4, duration of sedation: OR= 1.18, IC 95% [1.049, 1.325], p=0.006, high number of CVC: OR=2.78, IC 95% [1.73, 4.487], p < 10-4, and length of stay in ICU: OR= 1.14, IC 95% [1.066,1.22], p < 10-4. Conclusion: Prevention of nosocomial infections in ICUs is a priority of health care systems all around the world. Yet, their control requires an understanding of epidemiological data collected in these units.

Keywords: healthcare associated infections, incidence, intensive care unit, risk factors

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Authors: Monapat Sasingha, Suttisak Soralump

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This research presents the behavior of slope of the road along the canal stabilized by short piles. In this investigation, the centrifuge machine was used, modelling the condition of the water levels in the canal. The centrifuge tests were performed at 35 g. To observe the movement of the soil, visual analysis was performed to evaluate the failure behavior. Conclusively, the use of short piles to stabilize the canal slope proved to be an effective solution. However, the certain amount of settlement was found behind the short pile rows.

Keywords: centrifuge test, slope failure, embankment, stability of slope

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