Search results for: market crash prediction
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5615

Search results for: market crash prediction

2105 Global Evidence on the Seasonality of Enteric Infections, Malnutrition, and Livestock Ownership

Authors: Aishwarya Venkat, Anastasia Marshak, Ryan B. Simpson, Elena N. Naumova

Abstract:

Livestock ownership is simultaneously linked to improved nutritional status through increased availability of animal-source protein, and increased risk of enteric infections through higher exposure to contaminated water sources. Agrarian and agro-pastoral households, especially those with cattle, goats, and sheep, are highly dependent on seasonally various environmental conditions, which directly impact nutrition and health. This study explores global spatiotemporally explicit evidence regarding the relationship between livestock ownership, enteric infections, and malnutrition. Seasonal and cyclical fluctuations, as well as mediating effects, are further examined to elucidate health and nutrition outcomes of individual and communal livestock ownership. The US Agency for International Development’s Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and the United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund’s Multi-Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) provide valuable sources of household-level information on anthropometry, asset ownership, and disease outcomes. These data are especially important in data-sparse regions, where surveys may only be conducted in the aftermath of emergencies. Child-level disease history, anthropometry, and household-level asset ownership information have been collected since DHS-V (2003-present) and MICS-III (2005-present). This analysis combines over 15 years of survey data from DHS and MICS to study 2,466,257 children under age five from 82 countries. Subnational (administrative level 1) measures of diarrhea prevalence, mean livestock ownership by type, mean and median anthropometric measures (height for age, weight for age, and weight for height) were investigated. Effects of several environmental, market, community, and household-level determinants were studied. Such covariates included precipitation, temperature, vegetation, the market price of staple cereals and animal source proteins, conflict events, livelihood zones, wealth indices and access to water, sanitation, hygiene, and public health services. Children aged 0 – 6 months, 6 months – 2 years, and 2 – 5 years of age were compared separately. All observations were standardized to interview day of year, and administrative units were harmonized for consistent comparisons over time. Geographically weighted regressions were constructed for each outcome and subnational unit. Preliminary results demonstrate the importance of accounting for seasonality in concurrent assessments of malnutrition and enteric infections. Household assets, including livestock, often determine the intensity of these outcomes. In many regions, livestock ownership affects seasonal fluxes in malnutrition and enteric infections, which are also directly affected by environmental and local factors. Regression analysis demonstrates the spatiotemporal variability in nutrition outcomes due to a variety of causal factors. This analysis presents a synthesis of evidence from global survey data on the interrelationship between enteric infections, malnutrition, and livestock. These results provide a starting point for locally appropriate interventions designed to address this nexus in a timely manner and simultaneously improve health, nutrition, and livelihoods.

Keywords: diarrhea, enteric infections, households, livestock, malnutrition, seasonality

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2104 Community-Based Destination Sustainable Development: Case of Cicada Walking Street, Hua Hin, Thailand

Authors: Kingkan Pongsiri

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This paper aims to study the role and activities of the participants and the impact of activities created in the local area in order to sustainably develop the local areas. This study applied both qualitative and quantitative approaches presented in descriptive style; the data was collected via survey, observation and in-depth interviews with samples. The results illustrated five sorts of roles of participants of the Cicada Walking-street and four types of creative activities; recreation based, art based, cultural based, and live events. Integration of local characteristics, arts and cultures were presented creatively and interestingly. Participants are various. The roles of the participants found in the Cicada Market are group of the property and area management, entrepreneurs, leisure (entertaining persons), local people, and tourists. The good impacts on local communities are those in terms of economy, environmental friendly and local arts and cultures promoting. On the other hand, the traffic congestion, waste and the increasing of energy consumption are negative impacts from area development.

Keywords: creative tourism activity, destination development, sustainable development, walking street

Procedia PDF Downloads 242
2103 Performants: A Digital Event Manager-Organizer

Authors: Ioannis Andrianakis, Manolis Falelakis, Maria Pavlidou, Konstantinos Papakonstantinou, Ermioni Avramidou, Dimitrios Kalogiannis, Nikolaos Milios, Katerina Bountakidou, Kiriakos Chatzidimitriou, Panagiotis Panagiotopoulos

Abstract:

Artistic events, such as concerts and performances, are challenging to organize because they involve many people with different skill sets. Small and medium venues often struggle to afford the costs and overheads of booking and hosting remote artists, especially if they lack sponsors or subsidies. This limits the opportunities for both venues and artists, especially those outside of big cities. However, more and more research shows that audiences prefer smaller-scale events and concerts, which benefit local economies and communities. To address this challenge, our project “PerformAnts: Digital Event Manager-Organizer” aims to develop a smart digital tool that automates and optimizes the processes and costs of live shows and tours. By using machine learning, applying best practices and training users through workshops, our platform offers a comprehensive solution for a growing market, enhances the mobility of artists and the accessibility of venues and allows professionals to focus on the creative aspects of concert production.

Keywords: event organization, creative industries, event promotion, machine learning

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2102 The Role of Androgens in Prediction of Success in Smoking Cessation in Women

Authors: Michaela Dušková, Kateřina Šimůnková, Martin Hill, Hana Hruškovičová, Hana Pospíšilová, Eva Králíková, Luboslav Stárka

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Smoking represents the most widespread substance dependence in the world. Several studies show the nicotine's ability to alter women hormonal homeostasis. Women smokers have higher testosterone and lower estradiol levels throughout life compared to non-smoker women. We monitored the effect of smoking discontinuation on steroid spectrum with 40 premenopausal and 60 postmenopausal women smokers. These women had been examined before they discontinued smoking and also after 6, 12, 24, and 48 weeks of abstinence. At each examination, blood was collected to determine steroid spectrum (measured by GC-MS), LH, FSH, and SHBG (measured by IRMA). Repeated measures ANOVA model was used for evaluation of the data. The study has been approved by the local Ethics Committee. Given the small number of premenopausal women who endured not to smoke, only the first 6 week period data could be analyzed. A slight increase in androgens after the smoking discontinuation occurred. In postmenopausal women, an increase in testosterone, dihydrotestosterone, dehydroepiandrosterone, and other androgens occurred, too. Nicotine replacement therapy, weight changes, and age does not play any role in the androgen level increase. The higher androgens levels correlated with failure in smoking cessation. Women smokers have higher androgen levels, which might play a role in smoking dependence development. Women successful in smoking cessation, compared to the non-successful ones, have lower androgen levels initially and also after smoking discontinuation. The question is what androgen levels women have before they start smoking.

Keywords: addiction, smoking, cessation, androgens

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2101 Ten Patterns of Organizational Misconduct and a Descriptive Model of Interactions

Authors: Ali Abbas

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This paper presents a descriptive model of organizational misconduct based on observed patterns that occur before and after an ethical collapse. The patterns were classified by categorizing media articles in both "for-profit" and "not-for-profit" organizations. Based on the model parameters, the paper provides a descriptive model of various organizational deflection strategies under numerous scenarios, including situations where ethical complaints build-up, situations under which whistleblowers become more prevalent, situations where large scandals that relate to leadership occur, and strategies by which organizations deflect blame when pressure builds up or when media finds out. The model parameters start with the premise of a tolerance to double standards in unethical acts when conducted by leadership or by members of corporate governance. Following this premise, the model explains how organizations engage in discursive strategies to cover up the potential conflicts that arise, including secret agreements and weakening stakeholders who may oppose the organizational acts. Deflection strategies include "preemptive" and "post-complaint" secret agreements, absence of (or vague) documented procedures, engaging in blame and scapegoating, remaining silent on complaints until the media finds out, as well as being slow (if at all) to acknowledge misconduct and fast to cover it up. The results of this paper may be used to guide organizational leaders into the implications of such shortsighted strategies toward unethical acts, even if they are deemed legal. Validation of the model assumptions through numerous media articles is provided.

Keywords: ethical decision making, prediction, scandals, organizational strategies

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2100 Motherhood Medicalization and Marketing: From Media Frames to Women's Decisions

Authors: Leila Mohammadi

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This article discusses the technology of social egg freezing in the context of existing literature on medicalization, motherhood, and marketing. The social egg freezing technique offers to preserve some healthy eggs for age-related fertility decline in the future. The study draws on a qualitative analysis and participants observation of media publications, including text, images, or audio-visual about social egg freezing technology and postpone maternity, to identify and compare their communication strategies from a framing theory perspective. Using 442 surveys and 158 pieces of publications in Spanish media, this study demonstrated that the narratives used by these publications and their structures follow a marketing objective to medicalize motherhood. Within these frames, the market of preserving fertility is cast to show compassion and concern about women. In the opinion of participants, egg freezing technology liberates, empowers, and automates women from patriarchal control, and also gives them the responsibility of taking care of their body and reproductive system. This study showed this opinion is significantly influenced by media and their communication strategies supported by providers of this business.

Keywords: motherhood, social egg freezing, medicalization, marketing, media frames, fertility, assisted reproductive system

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2099 Application of XRF and Other Principal Component Analysis for Counterfeited Gold Coin Characterization in Forensic Science

Authors: Somayeh Khanjani, Hamideh Abolghasemi, Hadi Shirzad, Samaneh Nabavi

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At world market can be currently encountered a wide range of gemological objects that are incorrectly declared, treated, or it concerns completely different materials that try to copy precious objects more or less successfully. Counterfeiting of precious commodities is a problem faced by governments in most countries. Police have seized many counterfeit coins that looked like the real coins and because the feeling to the touch and the weight were very similar to those of real coins. Most people were fooled and believed that the counterfeit coins were real ones. These counterfeit coins may have been made by big criminal organizations. To elucidate the manufacturing process, not only the quantitative analysis of the coins but also the comparison of their morphological characteristics was necessary. Several modern techniques have been applied to prevent counterfeiting of coins. The objective of this study was to demonstrate the potential of X-ray Fluorescence (XRF) technique and the other analytical techniques for example SEM/EDX/WDX, FT-IR/ATR and Raman Spectroscopy. Using four elements (Cu, Ag, Au and Zn) and obtaining XRF for several samples, they could be discriminated. XRF technique and SEM/EDX/WDX are used for study of chemical composition. XRF analyzers provide a fast, accurate, nondestructive method to test the purity and chemistry of all precious metals. XRF is a very promising technique for rapid and non destructive counterfeit coins identification in forensic science.

Keywords: counterfeit coins, X-ray fluorescence, forensic, FT-IR

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2098 Support and Development of SMEs in the Slovak Republic: Selected Issues

Authors: Alexander Kelisek, Stanislava Strelcova

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Developing of business in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) is a specific especially for its flexibility and rapid adaptation to the conditions of turbulent market environment compared to large enterprises. Therefore, an importance of SMEs is growing rapidly in Slovakia but also in other EU countries. Small and medium enterprises are characterized by transparent organizational structure, as it allows the realization of direct management and information flow without significant negative aspects. In the national economy small and medium-sized enterprises represent a significant potential when performs a several important functions (e.g. social, economic, export-import, etc.) The significance of these enterprises is not only at national, but also at transnational level. Importance of SMEs is also aware of the EU, which declared this statement in a key document for SMEs called Small Business Act. In this document, SMEs are characterized, as the backbone of the EU economy and also as a key source of jobs opportunities. In addition to these aspects, SMEs attaches high innovation and development potential. The authors of the article are dealing with the current status of SMEs development in the Slovak Republic and highlight the current challenges that entrepreneurs face in their small and medium enterprises.

Keywords: small and medium enterprises (SMEs), business support, SMEs development, SMEs funding

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2097 Hysteresis Modeling in Iron-Dominated Magnets Based on a Deep Neural Network Approach

Authors: Maria Amodeo, Pasquale Arpaia, Marco Buzio, Vincenzo Di Capua, Francesco Donnarumma

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Different deep neural network architectures have been compared and tested to predict magnetic hysteresis in the context of pulsed electromagnets for experimental physics applications. Modelling quasi-static or dynamic major and especially minor hysteresis loops is one of the most challenging topics for computational magnetism. Recent attempts at mathematical prediction in this context using Preisach models could not attain better than percent-level accuracy. Hence, this work explores neural network approaches and shows that the architecture that best fits the measured magnetic field behaviour, including the effects of hysteresis and eddy currents, is the nonlinear autoregressive exogenous neural network (NARX) model. This architecture aims to achieve a relative RMSE of the order of a few 100 ppm for complex magnetic field cycling, including arbitrary sequences of pseudo-random high field and low field cycles. The NARX-based architecture is compared with the state-of-the-art, showing better performance than the classical operator-based and differential models, and is tested on a reference quadrupole magnetic lens used for CERN particle beams, chosen as a case study. The training and test datasets are a representative example of real-world magnet operation; this makes the good result obtained very promising for future applications in this context.

Keywords: deep neural network, magnetic modelling, measurement and empirical software engineering, NARX

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2096 Determinants of Integrated Reporting in Nigeria

Authors: Uwalomwa Uwuigbe, Olubukola Ranti Uwuigbe, Jinadu Olugbenga, Otekunrin Adegbola

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Corporate reporting has evolved over the years resulting from criticisms of the precedent by shareholders, stakeholders and other relevant financial institutions. Integrated reporting has become a globalized corporate reporting style, with its adoption around the world occurring rapidly to bring about an improvement in the quality of corporate reporting. While some countries have swiftly clinched into reporting in an integrated manner, others have not. In addition, there are ample research that has been conducted on the benefits of adopting integrated reporting, however, the same is not true in developing economies like Nigeria. Hence, this study basically examined the factors determining the adoption of integrated reporting in Nigeria. One hundred (100) copies of questionnaire was administered to financial managers of 20 selected listed companies in the Nigeria stock exchange market. The data obtained was analysed using the Spearman Rank Order Correlation via the Statistical Package for Social Science. This study observed that there is a significant relationship between the social pressures of isomorphic changes and integrated reporting adoption in Nigeria. The study recommends the need for an enforcement mechanism to be put in place while considering the adoption of integrated reporting in Nigeria, enforcement mechanisms should put into consideration the investors demand, the level of economic development, and the degree of corporate social responsibility.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility, isomorphic, integrated reporting, Nigeria, sustainability

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2095 Implementing a Neural Network on a Low-Power and Mobile Cluster to Aide Drivers with Predictive AI for Traffic Behavior

Authors: Christopher Lama, Alix Rieser, Aleksandra Molchanova, Charles Thangaraj

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New technologies like Tesla’s Dojo have made high-performance embedded computing more available. Although automobile computing has developed and benefited enormously from these more recent technologies, the costs are still high, prohibitively high in some cases for broader adaptation, particularly for the after-market and enthusiast markets. This project aims to implement a Raspberry Pi-based low-power (under one hundred Watts) highly mobile computing cluster for a neural network. The computing cluster built from off-the-shelf components is more affordable and, therefore, makes wider adoption possible. The paper describes the design of the neural network, Raspberry Pi-based cluster, and applications the cluster will run. The neural network will use input data from sensors and cameras to project a live view of the road state as the user drives. The neural network will be trained to predict traffic behavior and generate warnings when potentially dangerous situations are predicted. The significant outcomes of this study will be two folds, firstly, to implement and test the low-cost cluster, and secondly, to ascertain the effectiveness of the predictive AI implemented on the cluster.

Keywords: CS pedagogy, student research, cluster computing, machine learning

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2094 Risk Management in an Islamic Framework

Authors: Magid Maatallah

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The problem is, investment management in modern conditions boils down to risk management which is very underdeveloped in Islamic financial theory and practice. Add to this the fact that, in Islamic perception, this is one of the areas of conventional finance in need of drastic reforms. This need was recently underlined by the story of Long Term Capital Management (LTCM ), ( told by Roger Lowenstein in his book, When Genius Failed, Random House, 2000 ). So we face a double challenge, to develop Islamic techniques of risk management and to see that these new techniques are free from the ills with which conventional methods are suffering. This is different from the challenge faced in the middle of twentieth century, to develop a method of financial intermediation free of interest.Risk was always there, especially in business. But industrialization brought risks unknown in trade and agriculture. Industrial production often involves long periods of time .The longer the period of production the more the uncertainty. The scope of the market has expanded to cover the whole world, introducing new kinds of risk. More than a thousand years ago, when Islamic laws were being written, the nature and scope of risk and uncertainty was different. However, something can still be learnt which, in combination with the modern experience, should enable us to realize the Shariah objectives of justice, fairness and efficiency.

Keywords: financial markets, Islamic framework, risk management, investment

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2093 Metamorphic Computer Virus Classification Using Hidden Markov Model

Authors: Babak Bashari Rad

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A metamorphic computer virus uses different code transformation techniques to mutate its body in duplicated instances. Characteristics and function of new instances are mostly similar to their parents, but they cannot be easily detected by the majority of antivirus in market, as they depend on string signature-based detection techniques. The purpose of this research is to propose a Hidden Markov Model for classification of metamorphic viruses in executable files. In the proposed solution, portable executable files are inspected to extract the instructions opcodes needed for the examination of code. A Hidden Markov Model trained on portable executable files is employed to classify the metamorphic viruses of the same family. The proposed model is able to generate and recognize common statistical features of mutated code. The model has been evaluated by examining the model on a test data set. The performance of the model has been practically tested and evaluated based on False Positive Rate, Detection Rate and Overall Accuracy. The result showed an acceptable performance with high average of 99.7% Detection Rate.

Keywords: malware classification, computer virus classification, metamorphic virus, metamorphic malware, Hidden Markov Model

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2092 Automatic Classification of Lung Diseases from CT Images

Authors: Abobaker Mohammed Qasem Farhan, Shangming Yang, Mohammed Al-Nehari

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Pneumonia is a kind of lung disease that creates congestion in the chest. Such pneumonic conditions lead to loss of life of the severity of high congestion. Pneumonic lung disease is caused by viral pneumonia, bacterial pneumonia, or Covidi-19 induced pneumonia. The early prediction and classification of such lung diseases help to reduce the mortality rate. We propose the automatic Computer-Aided Diagnosis (CAD) system in this paper using the deep learning approach. The proposed CAD system takes input from raw computerized tomography (CT) scans of the patient's chest and automatically predicts disease classification. We designed the Hybrid Deep Learning Algorithm (HDLA) to improve accuracy and reduce processing requirements. The raw CT scans have pre-processed first to enhance their quality for further analysis. We then applied a hybrid model that consists of automatic feature extraction and classification. We propose the robust 2D Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model to extract the automatic features from the pre-processed CT image. This CNN model assures feature learning with extremely effective 1D feature extraction for each input CT image. The outcome of the 2D CNN model is then normalized using the Min-Max technique. The second step of the proposed hybrid model is related to training and classification using different classifiers. The simulation outcomes using the publically available dataset prove the robustness and efficiency of the proposed model compared to state-of-art algorithms.

Keywords: CT scan, Covid-19, deep learning, image processing, lung disease classification

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2091 Numerical Investigation of Pressure Drop and Erosion Wear by Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulation

Authors: Praveen Kumar, Nitin Kumar, Hemant Kumar

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The modernization of computer technology and commercial computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulation has given better detailed results as compared to experimental investigation techniques. CFD techniques are widely used in different field due to its flexibility and performance. Evaluation of pipeline erosion is complex phenomenon to solve by numerical arithmetic technique, whereas CFD simulation is an easy tool to resolve that type of problem. Erosion wear behaviour due to solid–liquid mixture in the slurry pipeline has been investigated using commercial CFD code in FLUENT. Multi-phase Euler-Lagrange model was adopted to predict the solid particle erosion wear in 22.5° pipe bend for the flow of bottom ash-water suspension. The present study addresses erosion prediction in three dimensional 22.5° pipe bend for two-phase (solid and liquid) flow using finite volume method with standard k-ε turbulence, discrete phase model and evaluation of erosion wear rate with varying velocity 2-4 m/s. The result shows that velocity of solid-liquid mixture found to be highly dominating parameter as compared to solid concentration, density, and particle size. At low velocity, settling takes place in the pipe bend due to low inertia and gravitational effect on solid particulate which leads to high erosion at bottom side of pipeline.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics (CFD), erosion, slurry transportation, k-ε Model

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2090 Applying Genetic Algorithm in Exchange Rate Models Determination

Authors: Mehdi Rostamzadeh

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Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are an adaptive heuristic search algorithm premised on the evolutionary ideas of natural selection and genetic. In this study, we apply GAs for fundamental and technical models of exchange rate determination in exchange rate market. In this framework, we estimated absolute and relative purchasing power parity, Mundell-Fleming, sticky and flexible prices (monetary models), equilibrium exchange rate and portfolio balance model as fundamental models and Auto Regressive (AR), Moving Average (MA), Auto-Regressive with Moving Average (ARMA) and Mean Reversion (MR) as technical models for Iranian Rial against European Union’s Euro using monthly data from January 1992 to December 2014. Then, we put these models into the genetic algorithm system for measuring their optimal weight for each model. These optimal weights have been measured according to four criteria i.e. R-Squared (R2), mean square error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE).Based on obtained Results, it seems that for explaining of Iranian Rial against EU Euro exchange rate behavior, fundamental models are better than technical models.

Keywords: exchange rate, genetic algorithm, fundamental models, technical models

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2089 The Roles of Organizational Culture, Participative Leadership, Employee Satisfaction and Work Motivation Towards Organizational Capabilities

Authors: Inezia Aurelia, Soebowo Musa

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Many firms still fail to develop organizational agility. There are more than 40% of organizations think that they are low/not agile in facing market change. Organizational culture plays an important role in developing the organizations to be adaptive in order to manage the VUCA effectively. This study examines the relationships of organizational culture towards participative leadership, employee satisfaction, employee work motivation, organizational learning, and absorptive capacity in developing organizational agility in managing the VUCA environment. 263 employees located from international chemical-based company offices across the globe who have worked for more than three years were the respondents in this study. This study showed that organizational clan culture promotes the development of participative leadership, which it has an empowering effect on people in the organization resulting in employee satisfaction. The study also confirms the role of organizational culture in creating organizational behavior within the organization that fosters organizational learning, absorptive capacity, and organizational agility, while the study also found that the relationship between participative leadership and employee work motivation is not significant.

Keywords: absorptive capacity, employee satisfaction, employee work motivation, organizational agility, organizational culture, organizational learning, participative leadership

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2088 Accounting Legislation, Corporate Governance Codes and Disclosure in Jordan

Authors: Ayman Haddad, Wafaa Sbeiti, Amr Qasem

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The main aim of this paper is to provide an overview of the most influential economic changes and accounting legislation affecting financial reporting and disclosure practices in Jordan. It also provides an overview of disclosure studies conducted in Jordan covering the year(s) between 1986 and 2014. The economic changes in Jordan required conducting economic reform and revising/issuing new regulations and financial market reforms that led to an improvement in disclosure practices. The issuance of Temporary Securities Law and its Directives of Disclosure in 1997, which came into effect in 1998, is considered as the turning point in the improvement of disclosure practice in Jordan. Based on a review of prior disclosure studies, we conclude that disclosure practices have improved overtime. We also observe that that firm size as a factor has always affected the level of disclosure in Jordan and followed by external auditing while liquidity was found to have the least effect. The paper also addresses the disclosure items required in Corporate Governance Codes that exist for listed shareholding companies, banks, and insurance companies. Finally, the paper discusses the quality of accounting education in Jordan since prior studies noted its impact on accounting practice.

Keywords: accounting legislation, corporate governance, disclosure practice, Jordan

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2087 A Novel Approach towards Test Case Prioritization Technique

Authors: Kamna Solanki, Yudhvir Singh, Sandeep Dalal

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Software testing is a time and cost intensive process. A scrutiny of the code and rigorous testing is required to identify and rectify the putative bugs. The process of bug identification and its consequent correction is continuous in nature and often some of the bugs are removed after the software has been launched in the market. This process of code validation of the altered software during the maintenance phase is termed as Regression testing. Regression testing ubiquitously considers resource constraints; therefore, the deduction of an appropriate set of test cases, from the ensemble of the entire gamut of test cases, is a critical issue for regression test planning. This paper presents a novel method for designing a suitable prioritization process to optimize fault detection rate and performance of regression test on predefined constraints. The proposed method for test case prioritization m-ACO alters the food source selection criteria of natural ants and is basically a modified version of Ant Colony Optimization (ACO). The proposed m-ACO approach has been coded in 'Perl' language and results are validated using three examples by computation of Average Percentage of Faults Detected (APFD) metric.

Keywords: regression testing, software testing, test case prioritization, test suite optimization

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2086 Integrating Machine Learning and Rule-Based Decision Models for Enhanced B2B Sales Forecasting and Customer Prioritization

Authors: Wenqi Liu, Reginald Bailey

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This study explores an advanced approach to enhancing B2B sales forecasting by integrating machine learning models with a rule-based decision framework. The methodology begins with the development of a machine learning classification model to predict conversion likelihood, aiming to improve accuracy over traditional methods like logistic regression. The classification model's effectiveness is measured using metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score, alongside a feature importance analysis to identify key predictors. Following this, a machine learning regression model is used to forecast sales value, with the objective of reducing mean absolute error (MAE) compared to linear regression techniques. The regression model's performance is assessed using MAE, root mean square error (RMSE), and R-squared metrics, emphasizing feature contribution to the prediction. To bridge the gap between predictive analytics and decision-making, a rule-based decision model is introduced that prioritizes customers based on predefined thresholds for conversion probability and predicted sales value. This approach significantly enhances customer prioritization and improves overall sales performance by increasing conversion rates and optimizing revenue generation. The findings suggest that this combined framework offers a practical, data-driven solution for sales teams, facilitating more strategic decision-making in B2B environments.

Keywords: sales forecasting, machine learning, rule-based decision model, customer prioritization, predictive analytics

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2085 Numerical Approach for Characterization of Flow Field in Pump Intake Using Two Phase Model: Detached Eddy Simulation

Authors: Rahul Paliwal, Gulshan Maheshwari, Anant S. Jhaveri, Channamallikarjun S. Mathpati

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Large pumping facility is the necessary requirement of the cooling water systems for power plants, process and manufacturing facilities, flood control and water or waste water treatment plant. With a large capacity of few hundred to 50,000 m3/hr, cares must be taken to ensure the uniform flow to the pump to limit vibration, flow induced cavitation and performance problems due to formation of air entrained vortex and swirl flow. Successful prediction of these phenomena requires numerical method and turbulence model to characterize the dynamics of these flows. In the past years, single phase shear stress transport (SST) Reynolds averaged Navier Stokes Models (like k-ε, k-ω and RSM) were used to predict the behavior of flow. Literature study showed that two phase model will be more accurate over single phase model. In this paper, a 3D geometries simulated using detached eddy simulation (LES) is used to predict the behavior of the fluid and the results are compared with experimental results. Effect of different grid structure and boundary condition is also studied. It is observed that two phase flow model can more accurately predict the mean flow and turbulence statistics compared to the steady SST model. These validate model will be used for further analysis of vortex structure in lab scale model to generate their frequency-plot and intensity at different location in the set-up. This study will help in minimizing the ill effect of vortex on pump performance.

Keywords: grid structure, pump intake, simulation, vibration, vortex

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2084 An Evaluative Approach for Successful Implementation of Lean and Green Manufacturing in Indian SMEs

Authors: Satya S. N. Narayana, P. Parthiban, T. Niranjan, N. Kannan

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Enterprises adopt methodologies to increase their business performance and to stay competent in the volatile global market. Lean manufacturing is one such manufacturing paradigm which focuses on reduction of cost by elimination of wastes or non-value added activities. With increased awareness about social responsibility and the necessary to meet the terms of the environmental policy, green manufacturing is becoming increasingly important for industries. Large plants have more resources, have started implementing lean and green practices and they are getting good results. Small and medium scale enterprises (SMEs) are facing problems in implementing lean and green concept. This paper aims to identify the key issues for implementation of lean and green concept in Indian SMEs. The key factors identified based on literature review and expert opinions are grouped into different levels by Modified Interpretive Structural Modeling (MISM) to explore the importance among the factors to implement lean and green manufacturing. Finally, Fuzzy Analytic Network Process (FANP) method has been used to determine the extent to which the main principles of lean and green manufacturing have been carried out in the six Indian medium scale manufacturing industries.

Keywords: lean manufacturing, green manufacturing, MISM, FANP

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2083 Budget Optimization for Maintenance of Bridges in Egypt

Authors: Hesham Abd Elkhalek, Sherif M. Hafez, Yasser M. El Fahham

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Allocating limited budget to maintain bridge networks and selecting effective maintenance strategies for each bridge represent challenging tasks for maintenance managers and decision makers. In Egypt, bridges are continuously deteriorating. In many cases, maintenance works are performed due to user complaints. The objective of this paper is to develop a practical and reliable framework to manage the maintenance, repair, and rehabilitation (MR&R) activities of Bridges network considering performance and budget limits. The model solves an optimization problem that maximizes the average condition of the entire network given the limited available budget using Genetic Algorithm (GA). The framework contains bridge inventory, condition assessment, repair cost calculation, deterioration prediction, and maintenance optimization. The developed model takes into account multiple parameters including serviceability requirements, budget allocation, element importance on structural safety and serviceability, bridge impact on network, and traffic. A questionnaire is conducted to complete the research scope. The proposed model is implemented in software, which provides a friendly user interface. The framework provides a multi-year maintenance plan for the entire network for up to five years. A case study of ten bridges is presented to validate and test the proposed model with data collected from Transportation Authorities in Egypt. Different scenarios are presented. The results are reasonable, feasible and within acceptable domain.

Keywords: bridge management systems (BMS), cost optimization condition assessment, fund allocation, Markov chain

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2082 Facade Design Impact on the Urban Landscape

Authors: Seyyed Hossein Alavi, Soudabe Mehri Talarposhti

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Passages urban landscape is made up of various components that the component parts of the whole and vice versa has relationships. In today’s cities, we have not seen a dual relationship and only one side of the equation which is the relationships of the component parts are considered. However, the effect of the component to whole is stronger and also longer. This means that every time the outer shell of the building was constructed instant impact on the viewers while it takes a long time to understand the impact of the building in its environment and basically, it seems city portrait has the sensory and untouchable effect on observer. Today, building facades are designated individually and in isolation from the context. Designers are familiar with the details of the facade, but they are not informed with the science of combination and its impact on portrait. The importance of city and also more important than that, the city portrait haven’t confirmed for those involved in the building and authorities and the construction been changed to a market for more glaring taste of designers and attracting more business and the city and its landscape has been forgotten. This essay is an attempt to collect a part of the principles and definitions needed on perspective issues and portrait, and it is hoped that it will open arena for more research and studies in this field and other related fields.

Keywords: facade, urban housing, urban design, sustainable architecture

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2081 Optimization of Oxygen Plant Parameters Simulating with MATLAB

Authors: B. J. Sonani, J. K. Ratnadhariya, Srinivas Palanki

Abstract:

Cryogenic engineering is the fast growing branch of the modern technology. There are various applications of the cryogenic engineering such as liquefaction in gas industries, metal industries, medical science, space technology, and transportation. The low-temperature technology developed superconducting materials which lead to reduce the friction and wear in various components of the systems. The liquid oxygen, hydrogen and helium play vital role in space application. The liquefaction process is produced very low temperature liquid for various application in research and modern application. The air liquefaction system for oxygen plants in gas industries is based on the Claude cycle. The effect of process parameters on the overall system is difficult to be analysed by manual calculations, and this provides the motivation to use process simulators for understanding the steady state and dynamic behaviour of such systems. The parametric study of this system via MATLAB simulations provide useful guidelines for preliminary design of air liquefaction system based on the Claude cycle. Every organization is always trying for reduce the cost and using the optimum performance of the plant for the staying in the competitive market.

Keywords: cryogenic, liquefaction, low -temperature, oxygen, claude cycle, optimization, MATLAB

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2080 Liquid Biopsy and Screening Biomarkers in Glioma Grading

Authors: Abdullah Abdu Qaseem Shamsan

Abstract:

Background: Gliomas represent the most frequent, heterogeneous group of tumors arising from glial cells, characterized by difficult monitoring, poor prognosis, and fatality. Tissue biopsy is an established procedure for tumor cell sampling that aids diagnosis, tumor grading, and prediction of prognosis. We studied and compared the levels of liquid biopsy markers in patients with different grades of glioma. Also, it tried to establish the potential association between glioma and specific blood groups antigen. Result: 78 patients were identified, among whom maximum percentage with glioblastoma possessed blood group O+ (53.8%). The second highest frequency had blood group A+ (20.4%), followed by B+ (9.0%) and A- (5.1%), and least with O-. Liquid biopsy biomarkers comprised of ALT, LDH, lymphocytes, Urea, Alkaline phosphatase, AST Neutrophils, and CRP. The levels of all the components increased significantly with the severity of glioma, with maximum levels seen in glioblastoma (grade IV), followed by grade III and grade II respectively. Conclusion: Gliomas possess significant clinical challenges due to their progression with heterogeneous nature and aggressive behavior. Liquid biopsy is a non-invasive approach which aids to establish the status of the patient and determine the tumor grade, therefore may show diagnostic and prognostic utility. Additionally, our study provides evidence to demonstrate the role of ABO blood group antigens in the development of glioma. However, future clinical research on liquid biopsy will improve the sensitivity and specificity of these tests and validate their clinical usefulness to guide treatment approaches.

Keywords: GBM: glioblastoma multiforme, CT: computed tomography, MRI: magnetic resonance imaging, ctRNA: circulating tumor RNA

Procedia PDF Downloads 46
2079 Digital Adoption of Sales Support Tools for Farmers: A Technology Organization Environment Framework Analysis

Authors: Sylvie Michel, François Cocula

Abstract:

Digital agriculture is an approach that exploits information and communication technologies. These encompass data acquisition tools like mobile applications, satellites, sensors, connected devices, and smartphones. Additionally, it involves transfer and storage technologies such as 3G/4G coverage, low-bandwidth terrestrial or satellite networks, and cloud-based systems. Furthermore, embedded or remote processing technologies, including drones and robots for process automation, along with high-speed communication networks accessible through supercomputers, are integral components of this approach. While farm-level adoption studies regarding digital agricultural technologies have emerged in recent years, they remain relatively limited in comparison to other agricultural practices. To bridge this gap, this study delves into understanding farmers' intention to adopt digital tools, employing the technology, organization, environment framework. A qualitative research design encompassed semi-structured interviews, totaling fifteen in number, conducted with key stakeholders both prior to and following the 2020-2021 COVID-19 lockdowns in France. Subsequently, the interview transcripts underwent thorough thematic content analysis, and the data and verbatim were triangulated for validation. A coding process aimed to systematically organize the data, ensuring an orderly and structured classification. Our research extends its contribution by delineating sub-dimensions within each primary dimension. A total of nine sub-dimensions were identified, categorized as follows: perceived usefulness for communication, perceived usefulness for productivity, and perceived ease of use constitute the first dimension; technological resources, financial resources, and human capabilities constitute the second dimension, while market pressure, institutional pressure, and the COVID-19 situation constitute the third dimension. Furthermore, this analysis enriches the TOE framework by incorporating entrepreneurial orientation as a moderating variable. Managerial orientation emerges as a pivotal factor influencing adoption intention, with producers acknowledging the significance of utilizing digital sales support tools to combat "greenwashing" and elevate their overall brand image. Specifically, it illustrates that producers recognize the potential of digital tools in time-saving and streamlining sales processes, leading to heightened productivity. Moreover, it highlights that the intent to adopt digital sales support tools is influenced by a market mimicry effect. Additionally, it demonstrates a negative association between the intent to adopt these tools and the pressure exerted by institutional partners. Finally, this research establishes a positive link between the intent to adopt digital sales support tools and economic fluctuations, notably during the COVID-19 pandemic. The adoption of sales support tools in agriculture is a multifaceted challenge encompassing three dimensions and nine sub-dimensions. The research delves into the adoption of digital farming technologies at the farm level through the TOE framework. This analysis provides significant insights beneficial for policymakers, stakeholders, and farmers. These insights are instrumental in making informed decisions to facilitate a successful digital transition in agriculture, effectively addressing sector-specific challenges.

Keywords: adoption, digital agriculture, e-commerce, TOE framework

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2078 Socio-Cultural and Religious Contributions to Gender Wage Gap: A Meta-Analysis

Authors: R. Alothaim, T. Mishra

Abstract:

Different researchers have reviewed the gender wage gap since early days between women and men to point out their difference to help bring about equality in production among them. Many fingers have been pointed out towards culture and religion as one of the major factors contributing to the gender wage gap throughout the years passed. Recent research has been done to give out equalization to this gap between men and women. The gender wage gap has raised serious concerns among nations and societies. Additionally, data, methodology and time periods have been affected by the gender wage gap, thus needing special decision making to help in the meta-study in the provision of quantitative review. Quality indicators have played a crucial role towards the education through stressing on enough consideration to help give a solution of equality and worth in the research study. The different research reviewed have given enough evidence and impact to point out that the major causes of this gender wage gap has resulted due to culture. On the other pedestal, religion may play a role to the issues of gender wage gap but with more emphasis on culture playing the bigger part. Furthermore, social status of individual has contributed to the wage gap difference between men and women. Labor market has played a vital role in empowering women, leading to the lower rate of the raw wage difference in the recent years.

Keywords: culture, gender wage gap, social, religion

Procedia PDF Downloads 113
2077 Microfiltration of the Sugar Refinery Wastewater Using Ceramic Membrane with Kenics Static Mixer

Authors: Zita Šereš, Ljubica Dokić, Nikola Maravić, Dragana Šoronja Simović, Cecilia Hodur, Ivana Nikolić, Biljana Pajin

Abstract:

New environmental regulations and the increasing market preference for companies that respect the ecosystem had encouraged the industry to look after new treatments for its effluents. The sugar industry, one of the largest emitter of environmental pollutants, follows this tendency. Membrane technology is convenient for separation of suspended solids, colloids and high molecular weight materials that are present in a wastewater from the sugar industry. The idea is to microfilter the wastewater, where the permeate passes through the membrane and becomes available for recycle and re-use in the sugar manufacturing process. For microfiltration of this effluent a tubular ceramic membrane was used with a pore size of 200 nm at transmembrane pressure in range of 1 – 3 bars and in range of flow rate of 50 – 150 l/h. Kenics static mixer was used for permeate flux enhancement. Turbidity and suspended solids were removed and the permeate flux was continuously monitored during the microfiltration process. The flux achieved after 90 minutes of microfiltration was in a range of 50-70 L/m2h. The obtained turbidity decrease was in the range of 50-99% and the total amount of suspended solids was removed.

Keywords: ceramic membrane, microfiltration, permeate flux, sugar industry, wastewater

Procedia PDF Downloads 521
2076 Smart Product-Service System Innovation with User Experience: A Case Study of Chunmi

Authors: Ying Yu, Wen-Chi Kuo, Tung-Jung Sung

Abstract:

The Product-Service System (PSS) has received widespread attention due to the increasing global competition in manufacturing and service markets. Today’s smart products and services are driven by Internet of things (IoT) technologies which will promote the transformation from traditional PSS to smart PSS. Although the smart PSS has some of technological achievements in businesses, it often ignores the real demands of target users when using products and services. Therefore, designers should know and learn the User Experience (UX) of smart products, services and systems. However, both of academia and industry still lack relevant development experience of smart PSS since it is an emerging field. In doing so, this is a case study of Xiaomi’s Chunmi, the largest IoT platform in the world, and addresses the two major issues: (1) why Chunmi should develop smart PSS strategies with UX; and (2) how Chunmi could successfully implement the strategic objectives of smart PSS through the design. The case study results indicated that: (1) the smart PSS can distinguish competitors by their unique UX which is difficult to duplicate; (2) early user engagement is crucial for the success of smart PSS; and (3) interaction, expectation, and enjoyment can be treated as a three-dimensional evaluation of UX design for smart PSS innovation. In conclusion, the smart PSS can gain competitive advantages through good UX design in the market.

Keywords: design, smart PSS, user experience, user engagement

Procedia PDF Downloads 132