Search results for: demand estimation
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4989

Search results for: demand estimation

1479 Modelling Volatility Spillovers and Cross Hedging among Major Agricultural Commodity Futures

Authors: Roengchai Tansuchat, Woraphon Yamaka, Paravee Maneejuk

Abstract:

From the past recent, the global financial crisis, economic instability, and large fluctuation in agricultural commodity price have led to increased concerns about the volatility transmission among them. The problem is further exacerbated by commodities volatility caused by other commodity price fluctuations, hence the decision on hedging strategy has become both costly and useless. Thus, this paper is conducted to analysis the volatility spillover effect among major agriculture including corn, soybeans, wheat and rice, to help the commodity suppliers hedge their portfolios, and manage the risk and co-volatility of them. We provide a switching regime approach to analyzing the issue of volatility spillovers in different economic conditions, namely upturn and downturn economic. In particular, we investigate relationships and volatility transmissions between these commodities in different economic conditions. We purposed a Copula-based multivariate Markov Switching GARCH model with two regimes that depend on an economic conditions and perform simulation study to check the accuracy of our proposed model. In this study, the correlation term in the cross-hedge ratio is obtained from six copula families – two elliptical copulas (Gaussian and Student-t) and four Archimedean copulas (Clayton, Gumbel, Frank, and Joe). We use one-step maximum likelihood estimation techniques to estimate our models and compare the performance of these copula using Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC). In the application study of agriculture commodities, the weekly data used are conducted from 4 January 2005 to 1 September 2016, covering 612 observations. The empirical results indicate that the volatility spillover effects among cereal futures are different, as response of different economic condition. In addition, the results of hedge effectiveness will also suggest the optimal cross hedge strategies in different economic condition especially upturn and downturn economic.

Keywords: agricultural commodity futures, cereal, cross-hedge, spillover effect, switching regime approach

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1478 An Electromyographic Study of Muscle Coordination during Dynamic Glenohumeral Joint Elevation

Authors: Omid Khaiyat, David Hawkes

Abstract:

Introduction: There remains a lack of information on sophisticated coordination patterns across shoulder girdle muscles. Considering the stability of the shoulder being heavily dependent on coordinated muscle activity during its wide-ranging movements, it is important that key intermuscular relationships are well-defined for a better understanding of underlying pathology. This study investigated shoulder intermuscular coordination during different planes of shoulder elevation. Materials and Methods: EMG was recorded from 14 shoulder muscles in 20 healthy participants during shoulder flexion, scapula plane elevation, abduction, and extension. Cross-correlation by means of Pearson Correlation Coefficient (PCC) was used to examine the coordination between different muscles and muscle groups. Results: Coordination between rotator cuff and deltoid muscle groups was significantly higher (p =0.020-0.035) during the initial (PCC) = 0.79) and final (PCC = 0.74) phases of elevation compared to the mid-range (PCC = 0.34). Furthermore, a high level of coordination (PCC = 0.89) was noted between the deltoid group and the adductor group (latissimus dorsi and teres major) during the initial stage of shoulder elevation. Conclusion: The destabilising force of the deltoid during the initial stage of shoulder elevation is balanced by coordinated activity of rotator cuff, latissimus dorsi, and teres major. This is also the case for the end-range of movement, where increased demand for stability again leads to higher coordination between the deltoid and rotator cuff muscle groups. Appreciation of the sophistication of normal shoulder function evidence-based rehabilitation strategies for conditions such as subacromial impingement syndrome or shoulder instability can be developed.

Keywords: shoulder, coordination, EMG, muscle activity, upper limb

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1477 FACTS Based Stabilization for Smart Grid Applications

Authors: Adel. M. Sharaf, Foad H. Gandoman

Abstract:

Nowadays, Photovoltaic-PV Farms/ Parks and large PV-Smart Grid Interface Schemes are emerging and commonly utilized in Renewable Energy distributed generation. However, PV-hybrid-Dc-Ac Schemes using interface power electronic converters usually has negative impact on power quality and stabilization of modern electrical network under load excursions and network fault conditions in smart grid. Consequently, robust FACTS based interface schemes are required to ensure efficient energy utilization and stabilization of bus voltages as well as limiting switching/fault onrush current condition. FACTS devices are also used in smart grid-Battery Interface and Storage Schemes with PV-Battery Storage hybrid systems as an elegant alternative to renewable energy utilization with backup battery storage for electric utility energy and demand side management to provide needed energy and power capacity under heavy load conditions. The paper presents a robust interface PV-Li-Ion Battery Storage Interface Scheme for Distribution/Utilization Low Voltage Interface using FACTS stabilization enhancement and dynamic maximum PV power tracking controllers. Digital simulation and validation of the proposed scheme is done using MATLAB/Simulink software environment for Low Voltage- Distribution/Utilization system feeding a hybrid Linear-Motorized inrush and nonlinear type loads from a DC-AC Interface VSC-6-pulse Inverter Fed from the PV Park/Farm with a back-up Li-Ion Storage Battery.

Keywords: AC FACTS, smart grid, stabilization, PV-battery storage, Switched Filter-Compensation (SFC)

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1476 Simulation of Antimicrobial Resistance Gene Fate in Narrow Grass Hedges

Authors: Marzieh Khedmati, Shannon L. Bartelt-Hunt

Abstract:

Vegetative Filter Strips (VFS) are used for controlling the volume of runoff and decreasing contaminant concentrations in runoff before entering water bodies. Many studies have investigated the role of VFS in sediment and nutrient removal, but little is known about their efficiency for the removal of emerging contaminants such as antimicrobial resistance genes (ARGs). Vegetative Filter Strip Modeling System (VFSMOD) was used to simulate the efficiency of VFS in this regard. Several studies demonstrated the ability of VFSMOD to predict reductions in runoff volume and sediment concentration moving through the filters. The objectives of this study were to calibrate the VFSMOD with experimental data and assess the efficiency of the model in simulating the filter behavior in removing ARGs (ermB) and tylosin. The experimental data were obtained from a prior study conducted at the University of Nebraska (UNL) Rogers Memorial Farm. Three treatment factors were tested in the experiments, including manure amendment, narrow grass hedges and rainfall events. Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR) was defined as the filter efficiency and the related experimental and model values were compared to each other. The VFS Model generally agreed with the experimental results and as a result, the model was used for predicting filter efficiencies when the runoff data are not available. Narrow Grass Hedges (NGH) were shown to be effective in reducing tylosin and ARGs concentration. The simulation showed that the filter efficiency in removing ARGs is different for different soil types and filter lengths. There is an optimum length for the filter strip that produces minimum runoff volume. Based on the model results increasing the length of the filter by 1-meter leads to higher efficiency but widening beyond that decreases the efficiency. The VFSMOD, which was proved to work well in estimation of VFS trapping efficiency, showed confirming results for ARG removal.

Keywords: antimicrobial resistance genes, emerging contaminants, narrow grass hedges, vegetative filter strips, vegetative filter strip modeling system

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1475 Exploring the Strategy to Identify Seed-Specific Acyl-Hydrolases from Arabidopsis thaliana by Activity-Based Protein Profiling

Authors: M. Latha, Achintya K. Dolui, P. Vijayaraj

Abstract:

Vegetable oils mainly triacylglycerol (TAG) are an essential nutrient in the human diet as well as one of the major global commodity. There is a pressing need to enhance the yield of oil production to meet the world’s growing demand. Oil content is controlled by the balance between synthesis and breakdown in the cells. Several studies have established to increase the oil content by the overexpression of oil biosynthetic enzymes. Interestingly the significant oil accumulation was observed with impaired TAG hydrolysis. Unfortunately, the structural, as well as the biochemical properties of the lipase enzymes, is widely unknown, and so far, no candidate gene was identified in seeds except sugar-dependent1 (SDP1). Evidence has shown that SDP1directly responsible for initiation of oil breakdown in the seeds during germination. The present study is the identification of seed-specific acyl-hydrolases by activity based proteome profiling (ABPP) using Arabidopsis thaliana as a model system. The ABPP reveals that around 8 to 10 proteins having the serine hydrolase domain and are expressed during germination of Arabidopsis seed. The N-term sequencing, as well as LC-MS/MS analysis, was performed for the differentially expressed protein during germination. The coding region of the identified proteins was cloned, and lipases activity was assessed with purified recombinant protein. The enzyme assay was performed against various lipid substrates, and we have observed the acylhydrolase activity towards lysophosphatidylcholine and monoacylglycerol. Further, the functional characteristic of the identified protein will reveal the physiological significance the enzyme in oil accumulation.

Keywords: lipase, lipids, vegetable oil, triacylglycerol

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1474 Millennials' Viewpoints about Sustainable Hotels' Practices in Egypt: Promoting Responsible Consumerism

Authors: Jailan Mohamed El Demerdash

Abstract:

Millennials are a distinctive and dominant consumer group whose behavior, preferences and purchase decisions are broadly explored but not fully understood yet. Making up the largest market segment in the world, and in Egypt, they have the power to reinvent the hospitality industry and contribute to forming prospective demand for green hotels by showing willingness to adopting their environmental-friendly practices. The current study aims to enhance better understanding of Millennials' perception about sustainable initiatives and to increase the prediction power of their intentions regarding green hotel practices in Egypt. In doing so, the study is exploring the relation among different factors; Millennials' environmental awareness, their acceptance of green practices and their willingness to pay more for them. Millennials' profile, their preferences and environmental decision-making process are brought under light to stimulate actions of hospitality decision-makers and hoteliers. Bearing in mind that responsible consumerism is depending on understanding the different influences on consumption. The study questionnaire was composed of four sections and it was distributed to random Egyptian travelers' blogs and Facebook groups, with approximately 8000 members. Analysis of variance test (ANOVA) was used to examine the study variables. The findings indicated that Millennials' environmental awareness will not be a significant factor in their acceptance of hotel green practices, as well as, their willingness to pay more for them. However, Millennials' acceptance of the level of hotel green practices will have an impact on their willingness to pay more. Millennials were found to have a noticeable level of environmental awareness but lack commitment to tolerating hotel green practices and their associated high prices.

Keywords: millennials, environment, awareness, paying more

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1473 Maturity Classification of Oil Palm Fresh Fruit Bunches Using Thermal Imaging Technique

Authors: Shahrzad Zolfagharnassab, Abdul Rashid Mohamed Shariff, Reza Ehsani, Hawa Ze Jaffar, Ishak Aris

Abstract:

Ripeness estimation of oil palm fresh fruit is important processes that affect the profitableness and salability of oil palm fruits. The adulthood or ripeness of the oil palm fruits influences the quality of oil palm. Conventional procedure includes physical grading of Fresh Fruit Bunches (FFB) maturity by calculating the number of loose fruits per bunch. This physical classification of oil palm FFB is costly, time consuming and the results may have human error. Hence, many researchers try to develop the methods for ascertaining the maturity of oil palm fruits and thereby, deviously the oil content of distinct palm fruits without the need for exhausting oil extraction and analysis. This research investigates the potential of infrared images (Thermal Images) as a predictor to classify the oil palm FFB ripeness. A total of 270 oil palm fresh fruit bunches from most common cultivar of oil palm bunches Nigresens according to three maturity categories: under ripe, ripe and over ripe were collected. Each sample was scanned by the thermal imaging cameras FLIR E60 and FLIR T440. The average temperature of each bunches were calculated by using image processing in FLIR Tools and FLIR ThermaCAM researcher pro 2.10 environment software. The results show that temperature content decreased from immature to over mature oil palm FFBs. An overall analysis-of-variance (ANOVA) test was proved that this predictor gave significant difference between underripe, ripe and overripe maturity categories. This shows that the temperature as predictors can be good indicators to classify oil palm FFB. Classification analysis was performed by using the temperature of the FFB as predictors through Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), Mahalanobis Discriminant Analysis (MDA), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and K- Nearest Neighbor (KNN) methods. The highest overall classification accuracy was 88.2% by using Artificial Neural Network. This research proves that thermal imaging and neural network method can be used as predictors of oil palm maturity classification.

Keywords: artificial neural network, maturity classification, oil palm FFB, thermal imaging

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1472 Joint Replenishment and Heterogeneous Vehicle Routing Problem with Cyclical Schedule

Authors: Ming-Jong Yao, Chin-Sum Shui, Chih-Han Wang

Abstract:

This paper is developed based on a real-world decision scenario that an industrial gas company that applies the Vendor Managed Inventory model and supplies liquid oxygen with a self-operated heterogeneous vehicle fleet to hospitals in nearby cities. We name it as a Joint Replenishment and Heterogeneous Vehicle Routing Problem with Cyclical Schedule and formulate it as a non-linear mixed-integer linear programming problem which simultaneously determines the length of the planning cycle (PC), the length of the replenishment cycle and the dates of replenishment for each customer and the vehicle routes of each day within PC, such that the average daily operation cost within PC, including inventory holding cost, setup cost, transportation cost, and overtime labor cost, is minimized. A solution method based on genetic algorithm, embedded with an encoding and decoding mechanism and local search operators, is then proposed, and the hash function is adopted to avoid repetitive fitness evaluation for identical solutions. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed solution method can effectively solve the problem under different lengths of PC and number of customers. The method is also shown to be effective in determining whether the company should expand the storage capacity of a customer whose demand increases. Sensitivity analysis of the vehicle fleet composition shows that deploying a mixed fleet can reduce the daily operating cost.

Keywords: cyclic inventory routing problem, joint replenishment, heterogeneous vehicle, genetic algorithm

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1471 Robustness of the Deep Chroma Extractor and Locally-Normalized Quarter Tone Filters in Automatic Chord Estimation under Reverberant Conditions

Authors: Luis Alvarado, Victor Poblete, Isaac Gonzalez, Yetzabeth Gonzalez

Abstract:

In MIREX 2016 (http://www.music-ir.org/mirex), the deep neural network (DNN)-Deep Chroma Extractor, proposed by Korzeniowski and Wiedmer, reached the highest score in an audio chord recognition task. In the present paper, this tool is assessed under acoustic reverberant environments and distinct source-microphone distances. The evaluation dataset comprises The Beatles and Queen datasets. These datasets are sequentially re-recorded with a single microphone in a real reverberant chamber at four reverberation times (0 -anechoic-, 1, 2, and 3 s, approximately), as well as four source-microphone distances (32, 64, 128, and 256 cm). It is expected that the performance of the trained DNN will dramatically decrease under these acoustic conditions with signals degraded by room reverberation and distance to the source. Recently, the effect of the bio-inspired Locally-Normalized Cepstral Coefficients (LNCC), has been assessed in a text independent speaker verification task using speech signals degraded by additive noise at different signal-to-noise ratios with variations of recording distance, and it has also been assessed under reverberant conditions with variations of recording distance. LNCC showed a performance so high as the state-of-the-art Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficient filters. Based on these results, this paper proposes a variation of locally-normalized triangular filters called Locally-Normalized Quarter Tone (LNQT) filters. By using the LNQT spectrogram, robustness improvements of the trained Deep Chroma Extractor are expected, compared with classical triangular filters, and thus compensating the music signal degradation improving the accuracy of the chord recognition system.

Keywords: chord recognition, deep neural networks, feature extraction, music information retrieval

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1470 Study on the Changes in Material Strength According to Changes in Forming Methods in Hot-Stamping Process

Authors: Yong-Jun Jeon, Hyung-Pil Park, Min-Jae Song, Baeg-Soon Cha

Abstract:

Following the recent trend of having increased demand in producing lighter-weight car bodies for improvement of automobile safety and gas mileage, there is a forming method that makes use of hot-stamping technique, which satisfies all conditions mentioned above. Hot-stamping is a forming technique with advantages of excellent formability, good dimensional precision and others since it is a process in which steel plates are heated up to temperatures of at least approximately 900°C after which forming is conducted in die at room temperature followed by rapid cooling. In addition, it has characteristics of allowing for improvement in material strength through achievement of quenching effect by having simultaneous forming and rapid cooling of material of high temperatures. However, there is insufficient information on the changes in material strength according to changes in material temperature with regards to material heating method and forming process in hot-stamping. Accordingly, this study aims to design and press die for T-type product of the scale models of the center pillar and to understand the changes in material strength in relation to changes in forming methods of hot-stamping process. Thus in order to understand the changes in material strength due to quenching effect among the hot-stamping process, material strength and material forming precision were to be studied while varying the forming and forming method when forming. For test methods, material strength was observed by using boron steel that has boron additives, which was heated up to 950°C, after which it was transferred to a die and was cooled down to material temperature of 400°C followed by air cooling process. During the forming and cooling process here, experiment was conducted with forming parameters of 2 holding rates and 3 flange heating rates wherein changing appearance in material strength according to changes forming method were observed by verifying forming strength and forming precision for each of the conditions.

Keywords: hot-stamping, formability, quenching, forming, press die, forming methods

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1469 Bioavailability Enhancement of Ficus religiosa Extract by Solid Lipid Nanoparticles

Authors: Sanjay Singh, Karunanithi Priyanka, Ramoji Kosuru, Raju Prasad Sharma

Abstract:

Herbal drugs are well known for their mixed pharmacological activities with the benefit of no harmful side effects. The use of herbal drugs is limited because of their higher dose requirement, frequent drug administration, poor bioavailability of phytochemicals and delayed onset of action. Ficus religiosa, a potent anti-oxidant plant useful in the treatment of diabetes and cancer was selected for the study. Solid lipid nanoparticles (SLN) of Ficus religiosa extract was developed for the enhancement in oral bioavailability of stigmasterol and β-sitosterol-d-glucoside, principal components present in the extract. Hot homogenization followed by ultrasonication method was used to develop extract loaded SLN. Developed extract loaded SLN were characterized for particle size, PDI, zeta potential, entrapment efficiency, in vitro drug release and kinetics, fourier transform infra-red spectroscopy, differential scanning calorimetry, powder X-ray diffractrometry and stability studies. Entrapment efficiency of optimized extract loaded SLN was found to be 68.46 % (56.13 % of stigmasterol and 12.33 % of β-sitosteryl-d-glucoside, respectively). RP HPLC method development was done for simultaneous estimation of stigmasterol and β-sitosterol-d-glucoside in Ficus religiosa extract in rat plasma. Bioavailability studies were carried out for extract in suspension form and optimized extract loaded SLN. AUC of stigmasterol and β-sitosterol-d-glucoside were increased by 6.7-folds by 9.2-folds, respectively in rats treated with extract loaded SLN compared to extract suspension. Also, Cmax of stigmasterol and β-sitosterol-d-glucoside were increased by 4.3-folds by 3.9-folds, respectively in rats treated with extract loaded SLN compared to extract suspension. Mean residence times (MRT) for stigmasterol were found to be 12.3 ± 0.67 hours from extract and 7.4 ± 2.1 hours from SLN and for β-sitosterol-d-glucoside, 10.49 ± 2.9 hours from extract and 6.4 ± 0.3 hours from SLN. Hence, it was concluded that SLN enhanced the bioavailability and reduced the MRT of stigmasterol and β-sitosterol-d-glucoside in Ficus religiosa extract which in turn may lead to reduction in dose of Ficus religiosa extract, prolonged duration of action and also enhanced therapeutic efficacy.

Keywords: Ficus religiosa, phytosterolins, bioavailability, solid lipid nanoparticles, stigmasterol and β-sitosteryl-d-glucoside

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1468 Thermal Maturity and Hydrocarbon Generation Histories of the Silurian Tannezuft Shale Formation, Ghadames Basin, Northwestern Libya

Authors: Emir Borovac, Sedat İnan

Abstract:

The Silurian Tannezuft Formation within the Ghadames Basin of Northwestern Libya, like other Silurian shales in North Africa and the Middle East, represents a significant prospect for unconventional hydrocarbon exploration. Unlike the more popular and extensively studied Sirt Basin, the Ghadames Basin remains underexplored, presenting untapped potential that warrants further investigation. This study focuses on the thermal maturity and hydrocarbon generation histories of the Tannezuft shales, utilizing calibrated basin modeling approaches. The Tannezuft shales are organic-rich and primarily contain Type II kerogen, especially in the basal layer, which contains up to 10 wt. % TOC, leading to its designation as ‘hot shale’. The research integrates geological, geochemical, and basin modeling data to elucidate the unconventional hydrocarbon potential of this formation, which is crucial given the global demand for energy and the need for new resources. By employing PetroMod software from Schlumberger, calibrated modeling results simulate hydrocarbon generation and migration within the Tannezuft shales. The findings suggest dual-phase hydrocarbon generation from the Lower Silurian Tannezuft source rock, related to deep burial prior to Hercynian orogeny and subsequent Alpine orogeny events. The Ghadames Basin's tectonic history, including major Hercynian and Alpine orogenies, has significantly influenced the generation, migration, and preservation of hydrocarbons, making the Ghadames Basin a promising area for further exploration.

Keywords: tanezzuft formation, ghadames basin, silurian hot shale, unconventional hydrocarbon

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1467 Application of Human Biomonitoring and Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Modelling to Quantify Exposure to Selected Toxic Elements in Soil

Authors: Eric Dede, Marcus Tindall, John W. Cherrie, Steve Hankin, Christopher Collins

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Current exposure models used in contaminated land risk assessment are highly conservative. Use of these models may lead to over-estimation of actual exposures, possibly resulting in negative financial implications due to un-necessary remediation. Thus, we are carrying out a study seeking to improve our understanding of human exposure to selected toxic elements in soil: arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), nickel (Ni), and lead (Pb) resulting from allotment land-use. The study employs biomonitoring and physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modelling to quantify human exposure to these elements. We recruited 37 allotment users (adults > 18 years old) in Scotland, UK, to participate in the study. Concentrations of the elements (and their bioaccessibility) were measured in allotment samples (soil and allotment produce). Amount of produce consumed by the participants and participants’ biological samples (urine and blood) were collected for up to 12 consecutive months. Ethical approval was granted by the University of Reading Research Ethics Committee. PBPK models (coded in MATLAB) were used to estimate the distribution and accumulation of the elements in key body compartments, thus indicating the internal body burden. Simulating low element intake (based on estimated ‘doses’ from produce consumption records), predictive models suggested that detection of these elements in urine and blood was possible within a given period of time following exposure. This information was used in planning biomonitoring, and is currently being used in the interpretation of test results from biological samples. Evaluation of the models is being carried out using biomonitoring data, by comparing model predicted concentrations and measured biomarker concentrations. The PBPK models will be used to generate bioavailability values, which could be incorporated in contaminated land exposure models. Thus, the findings from this study will promote a more sustainable approach to contaminated land management.

Keywords: biomonitoring, exposure, PBPK modelling, toxic elements

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1466 The Pricing-Out Phenomenon in the U.S. Housing Market

Authors: Francesco Berald, Yunhui Zhao

Abstract:

The COVID-19 pandemic further extended the multi-year housing boom in advanced economies and emerging markets alike against massive monetary easing during the pandemic. In this paper, we analyze the pricing-out phenomenon in the U.S. residential housing market due to higher house prices associated with monetary easing. We first set up a stylized general equilibrium model and show that although monetary easing decreases the mortgage payment burden, it would raise house prices and lower housing affordability for first-time homebuyers (through the initial housing wealth channel and the liquidity constraint channel that increases repeat buyers’ housing demand), and increase housing wealth inequality between first-time and repeat homebuyers. We then use the U.S. household-level data to quantify the effect of the house price change on housing affordability relative to that of the interest rate change. We find evidence of the pricing-out effect for all homebuyers; moreover, we find that the pricing-out effect is stronger for first-time homebuyers than for repeat homebuyers. The paper highlights the importance of accounting for general equilibrium effects and distributional implications of monetary policy while assessing housing affordability. It also calls for complementing monetary easing with well-targeted policy measures that can boost housing affordability, particularly for first-time and lower-income households. Such measures are also needed during aggressive monetary tightening, given that the fall in house prices may be insufficient or too slow to fully offset the immediate adverse impact of higher rates on housing affordability.

Keywords: pricing-out, U.S. housing market, housing affordability, distributional effects, monetary policy

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1465 An Approach towards Designing an Energy Efficient Building through Embodied Energy Assessment: A Case of Apartment Building in Composite Climate

Authors: Ambalika Ekka

Abstract:

In today’s world, the growing demand for urban built forms has resulted in the production and consumption of building materials i.e. embodied energy in building construction, leading to pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Therefore, new buildings will offer a unique opportunity to implement more energy efficient building without compromising on building performance of the building. Embodied energy of building materials forms major contribution to embodied energy in buildings. The paper results in an approach towards designing an energy efficient apartment building through embodied energy assessment. This paper discusses the trend of residential development in Rourkela, which includes three case studies of the contemporary houses, followed by architectural elements, number of storeys, predominant material use and plot sizes using primary data. It results in identification of predominant material used and other characteristics in urban area. Further, the embodied energy coefficients of various dominant building materials and alternative materials manufactured in Indian Industry is taken in consideration from secondary source i.e. literature study. The paper analyses the embodied energy by estimating materials and operational energy of proposed building followed by altering the specifications of the materials based on the building components i.e. walls, flooring, windows, insulation and roof through res build India software and comparison of different options is assessed with consideration of sustainable parameters. This paper results that autoclaved aerated concrete block only reaches the energy performance Index benchmark i.e. 69.35 kWh/m2 yr i.e. by saving 4% of operational energy and as embodied energy has no particular index, out of all materials it has the highest EE 23206202.43  MJ.

Keywords: energy efficient, embodied energy, EPI, building materials

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1464 Seismic Performance Evaluation of the Composite Structural System with Separated Gravity and Lateral Resistant Systems

Authors: Zi-Ang Li, Mu-Xuan Tao

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During the process of the industrialization of steel structure housing, a composite structural system with separated gravity and lateral resistant systems has been applied in engineering practices, which consists of composite frame with hinged beam-column joints, steel brace and RC shear wall. As an attempt in steel structural system area, seismic performance evaluation of the separated composite structure is important for further application in steel housing. This paper focuses on the seismic performance comparison of the separated composite structural system and traditional steel frame-shear wall system under the same inter-story drift ratio (IDR) provision limit. The same architectural layout of a high-rise building is designed as two different structural systems at the same IDR level, and finite element analysis using pushover method is carried out. Static pushover analysis implies that the separated structural system exhibits different lateral deformation mode and failure mechanism with traditional steel frame-shear wall system. Different indexes are adopted and discussed in seismic performance evaluation, including IDR, safe factor (SF), shear wall damage, etc. The performance under maximum considered earthquake (MCE) demand spectrum shows that the shear wall damage of two structural systems are similar; the separated composite structural system exhibits less plastic hinges; and the SF index value of the separated composite structural system is higher than the steel frame shear wall structural system.

Keywords: finite element analysis, new composite structural system, seismic performance evaluation, static pushover analysis

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1463 Green Concrete for Sustainable Indonesia Structures: Lightweight Concrete Using Oil Palm Shell as Coarse Aggregate with Superplasticizer and Fly Ash

Authors: Feny Acelia Silaban

Abstract:

The development of Indonesia’s infrastructure in many islands is significantly increased through the years. Based on this condition, concrete materials which are extracted from natural resources are over exploited and slowly becoming rare, thus the demand for alternative materials becomes so urgently crucial. Oil Palm is one of the biggest commodities in Indonesia with the total amount of 31 million tons in the last 2014. The production of palm oil also generates lots of solid wastes in the form of Oil Palm Shell (OPS). Constructing more environmentally sustainable structures can be achieved by producing lightweight concrete using the Oil Palm Shell (OPS). This paper investigated the effects of OPS and combination of Superplasticizer and fly ash proportion of lightweight concrete mix design to the compressive strength, flexure strength, modulus of elasticity, shrinkage behavior, and water absorption. The Oil Palm Shell had undergone special treatment by washing it with hot water and soap to reduce the oil content. This experiment used four different proportions of Superplasticizer with fly ash and 30 % OPS proportion from the weight of total compositions mixture by the result of trial mix. The experiment result showed that using OPS coarse aggregates and Superplasticizer with fly ash, the average of 28-day compressive strength reached 30-35 MPa. The highest 28-day compressive strength comes from 1.2 % Superplasticizer with 5 % fly ash proportion samples with the strength by 33 MPa. The sample with proportion of 1 % Superplasticizer and 7.5 % fly ash has the highest shrinkage value compared to other proportions. The characteristic of OPS as coarse aggregates is in a standard range of natural coarse aggregates. In general, this lightweight concrete using OPS coarse aggregate and Superplasticizer has high potential to be green-structural lightweight concrete alternative in Indonesia.

Keywords: lightweight concrete, oil palm shell, waste materials, superplasticizer

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1462 The Effect of Pozzolan Addition on the Physico-Chemical and Mechanical Properties of Mortars Based on Cement Resistant to Sulfate (CRS)

Authors: L. Belagraa, A. Belguendouz, Y. Rouabah, A. Bouzid, A. Noui, O. Kessal

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The use of cements CRS in aggressive environments showed a lot of benefits as like good mechanical responses and therefore better durability, however, their manufacturing consume a lot of clinker, which leads to the random hazardous deposits, the shortage of natural resources and the gas and the dust emissions mainly; (CO2) with its ecological negative impact on the environment. Technical, economic and environmental benefits by the use of blended cements have been reported and being considered as a research area of great interest. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the influence of the substitution of natural pozzolan on the physico-chemical properties of the new formulated binder and the mechanical behavior of mortar containing this binary cement. Hence, the pozzolan replacement is composed with different proportions (0%, 2.5%, 5%, 7.5% and 10%). The physico-chemical properties of cement resistant to sulfate (CRS) alternative composition were investigated. Further, the behavior of the mortars based on this binder is studied. These characteristics includes chemical composition, density and fineness, consistency, setting time, shrinkage, absorption and the mechanical response. The results obtained showed that the substitution of pozzolan at the optimal ratio of 5% has a positive effect on the resulting cement, greater specific surface area, reduced water demand, accelerating the process of hydration, a better mechanical responses and decreased absorption. Therefore, economic and ecological cement based on mineral addition like pozzolan could be possible as well as advantageous to the formulation of environmental mortars.

Keywords: Cement Resistant to Sulfate (CRS), environmental mortars mechanical response, physico-chemical properties, pozzolan

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1461 Application of Data Driven Based Models as Early Warning Tools of High Stream Flow Events and Floods

Authors: Mohammed Seyam, Faridah Othman, Ahmed El-Shafie

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The early warning of high stream flow events (HSF) and floods is an important aspect in the management of surface water and rivers systems. This process can be performed using either process-based models or data driven-based models such as artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. The main goal of this study is to develop efficient AI-based model for predicting the real-time hourly stream flow (Q) and apply it as early warning tool of HSF and floods in the downstream area of the Selangor River basin, taken here as a paradigm of humid tropical rivers in Southeast Asia. The performance of AI-based models has been improved through the integration of the lag time (Lt) estimation in the modelling process. A total of 8753 patterns of Q, water level, and rainfall hourly records representing one-year period (2011) were utilized in the modelling process. Six hydrological scenarios have been arranged through hypothetical cases of input variables to investigate how the changes in RF intensity in upstream stations can lead formation of floods. The initial SF was changed for each scenario in order to include wide range of hydrological situations in this study. The performance evaluation of the developed AI-based model shows that high correlation coefficient (R) between the observed and predicted Q is achieved. The AI-based model has been successfully employed in early warning throughout the advance detection of the hydrological conditions that could lead to formations of floods and HSF, where represented by three levels of severity (i.e., alert, warning, and danger). Based on the results of the scenarios, reaching the danger level in the downstream area required high RF intensity in at least two upstream areas. According to results of applications, it can be concluded that AI-based models are beneficial tools to the local authorities for flood control and awareness.

Keywords: floods, stream flow, hydrological modelling, hydrology, artificial intelligence

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1460 Study of Growth Patterns of the Built-Up Area in Tourism Destinations in Relation to Sustainable Development

Authors: Tagore Sai Priya Nunna, Ankhi Banerjee

Abstract:

The rapid growth of the tourism industry in India in the last few years after the economic crisis in 2009 has been one of the significant causes that led to the Land Use Land Cover change (LULC) of most tourism destinations. The tourist regions are subjected to significant increase in built-up due to increased construction activities for developing accommodation facilities further boosting tourism demand. This research attempts to analyse the changing LULC and the growth pattern of the built-up area within tourist destinations. Four popular tourist destinations, which promises various types of tourism activity and which are significantly dependent on tourism for economic growth, are selected for the study. The study uses remotely sensed data for analysis of land use change through supervised segmentation into five broad classes. Further, the landuse map is reclassified into binary classes to extract the built-up area. The growth patterns of the built-up are analysed in terms of size, shape, direction and form of growth, through a set of spatial metrics. Additionally, a detailed analysis of the existing development pattern corresponding to planned development zones was performed to identify unplanned growth spots in the study regions. The findings of the study provide insights into how tourism has contributed to significant changes in LULC around tourist sites. Also, the study highlights the growth pattern of built-up areas with respect to the type of tourism activity and geographical characteristics. The research attempts to address the need of integrating spatial metrics for the development of sustainable tourism plans as part of the goals of sustainable development.

Keywords: built-up, growth, patterns, tourism, sustainable

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1459 A Study on Fundamental Problems for Small and Medium Agricultural Machinery Industries in Central Region Area

Authors: P. Thepnarintra, S. Nikorn

Abstract:

Agricultural machinery industry plays an important role in the industrial development especially the production industry of the country. There has been continuing development responding to the higher demand of the production. However, the problem in agricultural machinery production still exists. Thus, the purpose of this research is to investigate problems on fundamental factors of industry based on the entrepreneurs’ point of view. The focus was on the small and medium size industry receiving a factory license typed number 0660 from the Department of Industrial Works. The investigation was on the comparison between the management of the small and medium size agricultural industry in 3 provinces in the central region of Thailand. Population in this study consisted of 189 company managers or managing directors, of which 101 were from the small size and 88 were from the medium size industry. The data were analyzed to find percentage, arithmetic mean, and standard deviation with independent sample T-test at the statistical significance .05. The results showed that the small and medium size agricultural machinery manufacturers in the central region of Thailand reported high problems in every aspect. When compared the problems on basic factors in running the business, it was found that there was no difference statistically at .05 in managing of the small and medium size agricultural machinery manufacturers. However, there was a statistically significant difference between the small and medium size agricultural machinery manufacturers on the aspect of policy and services of the government. The problems reported by the small and medium size agricultural machinery manufacturers were the services on public tap water and the problem on politic and stability of the country.

Keywords: agricultural machinery, manufacturers, problems, on running the business

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1458 The Impact of Public Finance Management on Economic Growth and Development in South Africa

Authors: Zintle Sikhunyana

Abstract:

Management of public finance in many countries such as South Africa is affected by political decisions and by policies around fiscal decentralization amongst the government spheres. Economic success is said to be determined by efficient management of public finance and by the policies or strategies that are implemented to support efficient public finance management. Policymakers focus on pay attention to how economic policies have been implemented and how they are directed into ensuring stable development. This will allow policymakers to address economic challenges through the usage of fiscal policy parameters that are linked to the achieved rate of economic growth and development. Efficient public finance management reduces the likelihood of corruption and corruption is said to have negative effects on economic growth and development. Corruption in public finance refers to an act of using funds for personal benefits. To achieve macroeconomic objectives, governments make use of government expenditure and government expenditure is financed through tax revenue. The main aim of this paper is to investigate the potential impact of public finance management on economic growth and development in South Africa. The secondary data obtained from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) and World Bank for 1980- 2020 has been utilized to achieve the research objectives. To test the impact of public finance management on economic growth and development, the study will use Seeming Unrelated Regression Equation (SURE) Modelling that allows researchers to model multiple equations with interdependent variables. The advantages of using SUR are that it efficiently allows estimation of relationships between variables by combining information on different equations and SUR test restrictions that involve parameters in different equations. The findings have shown that there is a positive relationship between efficient public finance management and economic growth/development. The findings also show that efficient public finance management has an indirect positive impact on economic growth and development. Corruption has a negative impact on economic growth and development. It results in an efficient allocation of government resources and thereby improves economic growth and development. The study recommends that governments who aim to stimulate economic growth and development should target and strengthen public finance management policies or strategies.

Keywords: corruption, economic growth, economic development, public finance management, fiscal decentralization

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1457 Social Interaction Dynamics Exploration: The Case Study of El Sherouk City

Authors: Nardine El Bardisy, Wolf Reuter, Ayat Ismail

Abstract:

In Egypt, there is continuous housing demand as a result of rapid population growth. In 1979, this forced the government to establish new urban communities in order to decrease stress around delta. New Urban Communities Authority (NUCA) was formulated to take the responsibly of this new policy. These communities suffer from social life deficiency due to their typology, which is separated island with barriers. New urban communities’ typology results from the influence of neoliberalism movement and modern city planning forms. The lack of social interaction in these communities at present should be enhanced in the future. On a global perspective, sustainable development calls for creating more sustainable communities which include social, economic and environmental aspects. From 1960, planners were highly focusing on the promotion of the social dimension in urban development plans. The research hypothesis states: “It is possible to promote social interaction in new urban communities through a set of socio-spatial recommended strategies that are tailored for Greater Cairo Region context”. In order to test this hypothesis, the case of El-Sherouk city is selected, which represents the typical NUCA development plans. Social interaction indicators were derived from literature and used to explore different social dynamics in the selected case. The tools used for exploring case study are online questionnaires, face to face questionnaires, interviews, and observations. These investigations were analyzed, conclusions and recommendations were set to improve social interaction.

Keywords: new urban communities, modern planning, social interaction, social life

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1456 The International Field Placement: Experience in Vietnam Social Work International Placement Programme

Authors: Ngo Thi Thanh Mai, Nguyen Thu Ha, Frances Crawford

Abstract:

The demand for developing international social work field education is on the rise. Global foreign universities have considered international collaboration and cross-cultural perspective as an essential part of their social work training curriculum. International placement program at Faculty of Social Work (FSW), Hanoi National University of Education (HNUE) has met the need of international social work students, as well as the institutions involved in achieving social work professional social work knowledge in the Vietnamese context. This program has also lead to a long-term collaboration between HNUE and several global institutions in developing social work education, research and practice skill. This paper focuses on the benefits and challenges of students who involved in the global placement programme at Faculty of Social Work (FSW), Hanoi National University of Education (HNUE) and content of international field education provided to the international students based on the experience of the authors. Study results indicated that the participants have opportunity them to explore a new culture and social work system abroad especially in the Vietnamese context. However, there are still difficulties that international students have to face during different phases of the exchange process such as language and communication barriers, cultural value differences, insufficient support and supervision during placement. Basing on these results, the authors intend to propose some recommendations to enhance the programme activities such as pre-departure orientation, support and supervision during placement, cultural exchange and follow-up activities.

Keywords: social work education, social work, international placement, field placement, Vietnam

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1455 Retrofitting Residential Buildings for Energy Efficiency: An Experimental Investigation

Authors: Naseer M. A.

Abstract:

Buildings are major consumers of energy in both their construction and operation. They account for 40% of World’s energy use. It is estimated that 40-60% of this goes for conditioning the indoor environment. In India, like many other countries, the residential buildings have a major share (more than 50%) in the building sector. Of these, single-family units take a mammoth share. The single-family dwelling units in the urban and fringe areas are built in two stories to minimize the building foot print on small land parcels. And quite often, the bedrooms are located in the first floors. The modern buildings are provided with reinforced concrete (RC) roofs that absorb heat throughout the day and radiate the heat into the interiors during the night. The rooms that are occupied in the night, like bedrooms, are having their indoors uncomfortable. This has resulted in the use of active systems like air-conditioners and air coolers, thereby increasing the energy use. An investigation conducted by monitoring the thermal comfort condition in the residential building with RC roofs have proved that the indoors are really uncomfortable in the night hours. A sustainable solution to improve the thermal performance of the RC roofs was developed by an experimental study by continuously monitoring the thermal comfort parameters during summer (the period that is most uncomfortable in temperate climate). The study conducted in the southern peninsular India, prove that retrofitting of existing residential building can give a sustainable solution in abating the ever increasing energy demand especially when it is a fact that these residential buildings that are built for a normal life span of 40 years would continue to consume the energy for the rest of its useful life.

Keywords: energy efficiency, thermal comfort, retrofitting, residential buildings

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1454 Hybrid Heat Pump for Micro Heat Network

Authors: J. M. Counsell, Y. Khalid, M. J. Stewart

Abstract:

Achieving nearly zero carbon heating continues to be identified by UK government analysis as an important feature of any lowest cost pathway to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Heat currently accounts for 48% of UK energy consumption and approximately one third of UK’s greenhouse gas emissions. Heat Networks are being promoted by UK investment policies as one means of supporting hybrid heat pump based solutions. To this effect the RISE (Renewable Integrated and Sustainable Electric) heating system project is investigating how an all-electric heating sourceshybrid configuration could play a key role in long-term decarbonisation of heat.  For the purposes of this study, hybrid systems are defined as systems combining the technologies of an electric driven air source heat pump, electric powered thermal storage, a thermal vessel and micro-heat network as an integrated system.  This hybrid strategy allows for the system to store up energy during periods of low electricity demand from the national grid, turning it into a dynamic supply of low cost heat which is utilized only when required. Currently a prototype of such a system is being tested in a modern house integrated with advanced controls and sensors. This paper presents the virtual performance analysis of the system and its design for a micro heat network with multiple dwelling units. The results show that the RISE system is controllable and can reduce carbon emissions whilst being competitive in running costs with a conventional gas boiler heating system.

Keywords: gas boilers, heat pumps, hybrid heating and thermal storage, renewable integrated and sustainable electric

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1453 Determination of Medians of Biochemical Maternal Serum Markers in Healthy Women Giving Birth to Normal Babies

Authors: Noreen Noreen, Aamir Ijaz, Hamza Akhtar

Abstract:

Background: Screening plays a major role to detect chromosomal abnormalities, Down syndrome, neural tube defects and other inborn diseases of the newborn. Serum biomarkers in the second trimester are useful in determining risk of most common chromosomal anomalies; these test include Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), Human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG), Unconjugated Oestriol (UEȝ)and inhibin-A. Quadruple biomarkers are worth test in diagnosing the congenital pathology during pregnancy, these procedures does not form a part of routine health care of pregnant women in Pakistan, so the median value is lacking for population in Pakistan. Objective: To determine median values of biochemical maternal serum markers in local population during second trimester maternal screening. Study settings: Department of Chemical Pathology and Endocrinology, Armed Forces Institute of Pathology (AFIP) Rawalpindi. Methods: Cross-Sectional study for estimation of reference values. Non-probability consecutive sampling, 155 healthy pregnant women, of 30-40 years of age, will be included. As non-parametric statistics will be used, the minimum sample size is 120. Result: Total 155 women were enrolled into this study. The age of all women enrolled ranged from 30 to39 yrs. Among them, 39 per cent of women were less than 34 years. Mean maternal age 33.46±2.35 SD and maternal body weight were 54.98±2.88. Median value of quadruple markers calculated from 15-18th week of gestation that will be used for calculation of MOM for screening of trisomy21 in this gestational age. Median value at 15 week of gestation were observed hCG 36650 mIU/ml, AFP 23.3 IU/ml, UEȝ 3.5 nmol/L, InhibinA 198 ng/L, at 16 week of gestation hCG 29050 mIU/ml, AFP 35.4 IU/ml, UEȝ 4.1 nmol/L, InhibinA 179 ng/L, at 17 week of gestation hCG 28450 mIU/ml, AFP 36.0 IU/ml, UEȝ 6.7 nmol/L, InhibinA 176 ng/L and at 18 week of gestation hCG 25200 mIU/ml, AFP 38.2 IU/ml, UEȝ 8.2 nmol/L, InhibinA 190 ng/L respectively.All the comparisons were significant (p-Value <0.005) with 95% confidence Interval (CI) and level of significance of study set by going through literature and set at 5%. Conclusion: The median values for these four biomarkers in Pakistani pregnant women can be used to calculate MoM.

Keywords: screening, down syndrome, quadruple test, second trimester, serum biomarkers

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1452 Secularization of Europe and the Rise of Nationalism

Authors: Sterling C. DeVerter

Abstract:

In recent decades, there has been continually growing concern amongst scholars and political leaders towards the global resurgence of nationalism, particularly in Europe, the United States, and China. However, very few studies have attempted to empirically examine the relationship between religion and nationalism at the level of the individual, and none are known to have done so quantitatively. Building on Tajfel's and Turner's (1978) Social Identity Theory (SIT), and Anderson (1991) and Marx (2003), this study will employ SIT and regression analysis to compare the sources and patterns of nationalistic sentiment among European respondents in eight countries to the average levels of self-reported religiosity, religious participation, age, education, and income levels. Survey reports from the International Social Survey Programme were the primary quantitative data sources. It was hypothesized that the increase in nationalism across Europe follows this same evolution as first identified by Anderson, and is positively correlated to the reduction in reported religiosity. However, this study failed to reject the null, there was no substantial ( < .035) correlation between nationalistic sentiment and any of the measures of religiosity, nor were there any substantial correlations between nationalistic sentiment and either of the three control variables ( < .008). Across all countries examined, it was discovered that inclusionary nationalism has slightly declined (-5.08%), while exclusionary nationalism had increased substantially (+17.25%). The combined trend reflected an overall rise in nationalism across the time period and a forecast that suggests the current levels are also elevated. The primary implications include the demand to readdress the notion of religion and nationalism, and the correlation between the two, as well as the current nationalism trends in terms of support or non-support for future political and social movements.

Keywords: European Union, secularization, nationalism, social identity theory

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1451 Bring Your Own Device Security Model in a Financial Institution of South Africa

Authors: Michael Nthabiseng Moeti, Makhulu Relebogile Langa, Joey Jansen van Vuuren

Abstract:

This paper examines the utilization of personal electronic devices like laptops, tablets, and smartphones for professional duties within a financial organization. This phenomenon is known as bring your own device (BYOD). BYOD accords employees the freedom to use their personal devices to access corporate resources from anywhere in the world with Internet access. BYOD arrangements introduce significant security risks for both organizations and users. These setups change the threat landscape for enterprises and demand unique security strategies, as conventional tools tailored for safeguarding managed devices fall short in adequately protecting enterprise assets without active user cooperation. This paper applies protection motivation theory (PMT) to highlight behavioral risks from BYOD users that may impact the security of financial institutions. Thematic analysis was applied to gain a comprehensive understanding of how users perceive this phenomenon. These findings demonstrates that the existence of a security policy does not ensure that all employees will take measures to protect their personal devices. Active promotion of BYOD security policies is crucial for financial institution employees and management. This paper developed a BYOD security model which is useful for understanding compliant behaviors. Given that BYOD security is becoming a major concern across financial sector, it is important. The paper recommends that future research could expand the number of universities from which data is collected.

Keywords: BYOD, information security, protection motivation theory, security risks, thematic analysis

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1450 Effect of Access to Finance on Innovation and Productivity of SMEs in Nigeria: Evidence from the World Bank Enterprise Survey

Authors: Abidemi C. Adegboye, Samuel Iweriebor

Abstract:

The primary link between financial institutions and economic performance is the provision of resources by these institutions to businesses in order to drive enterprise expansion, sustainability, and development. In this study, the role of access to finance in driving innovations and productivity in Nigerian SMEs is investigated using the World Bank Enterprise Survey (ES) dataset. Innovation is defined based on the ES analysis using five compositions including product, method, organisational, use of foreign-licensed technology, and spending on R&D. The study considers finance in terms of source in meeting investment needs and in terms of access. Moreover, finance access is categorized as external and internal to a firm with each having different implications. The research methodology adopted a survey analysis based on the 2014 World Bank Enterprise Survey of 19 states in Nigeria. The survey comprised over 10,000 manufacturing and services firms, both at the small scale and medium scale levels. The logit estimation technique is used to estimate the relationships in the study. The results from the empirical analysis show that in general, access to finance drives SME innovation in Nigeria. In particular, ease of accessing bank loans and credit is shown to be the strongest positive force in driving all types of innovation among SMEs in Nigeria. In the same vein, the type of finance source for investment matters in terms of how it affects innovation: it is shown that both internal and external sources improve investment in product, process, and organisational innovation, but only external financing has effect on R&D spending and use of foreign licensed technology. Overall spending on R&D is only driven by access to external finance by the SMEs. For productivity, the results show that while structure of financing investment improves productivity, increased access to finance may actually lead to productivity decline among SMEs in Nigeria. There is a need for the financial system to evolve structures to increase fund availability to SMEs in Nigeria, especially for the purpose of innovation investment.

Keywords: access to finance, financing investment, innovation, productivity, SMEs

Procedia PDF Downloads 347