Search results for: multi variable decision making

Authors: Tom Wanyama

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We have developed a weight-based parts inventory monitoring system utilizing the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) to enhance operational efficiencies in manufacturing. The system addresses various challenges, including eliminating downtimes caused by stock-outs, preventing human errors in parts delivery and product assembly, and minimizing motion waste by reducing unnecessary worker movements. The system incorporates custom QR codes for simplified inventory tracking and retrieval processes. The generated data serves a dual purpose by enabling real-time optimization of parts flow within manufacturing facilities and facilitating retroactive optimization of stock levels for informed decision-making in inventory management. The pilot implementation at SEPT Learning Factory successfully eradicated data entry errors, optimized parts delivery, and minimized workstation downtimes, resulting in a remarkable increase of over 10% in overall equipment efficiency across all workstations. Leveraging the IIoT features, the system seamlessly integrates information into the process control system, contributing to the enhancement of product quality. This approach underscores the importance of effective tracking of parts inventory in manufacturing to achieve transparency, improved inventory control, and overall profitability. In the broader context, our inventory monitoring system aligns with the evolving focus on optimizing supply chains and maintaining well-managed warehouses to ensure maximum efficiency in the manufacturing industry.

Keywords: industrial Internet of things, industrial systems integration, inventory monitoring, inventory control in manufacturing

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Authors: G. Martino, F. Silva, E. Marchal

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The control over delivered iron ore blend characteristics is one of the most important aspects of the mining business. The iron ore price is a function of its composition, which is the outcome of the beneficiation process. So, end-to-end integrated planning of mine operations can reduce risks of penalties on the iron ore price. In a standard iron mining company, the production chain is composed of mining, ore beneficiation, and client supply. When mine planning and client supply decisions are made uncoordinated, the beneficiation plant struggles to deliver the best blend possible. Technological improvements in several fields allowed bridging the gap between departments and boosting integrated decision-making processes. Clusterization and classification algorithms over historical production data generate reasonable previsions for quality and volume of iron ore produced for each pile of run-of-mine (ROM) processed. Mathematical modeling can use those deterministic relations to propose iron ore blends that better-fit specifications within a delivery schedule. Additionally, a model capable of representing the whole production chain can clearly compare the overall impact of different decisions in the process. This study shows how flexibilization combined with a planning optimization model between the mine and the ore beneficiation processes can reduce risks of out of specification deliveries. The model capabilities are illustrated on a hypothetical iron ore mine with magnetic separation process. Finally, this study shows ways of cost reduction or profit increase by optimizing process indicators across the production chain and integrating the different plannings with the sales decisions.

Keywords: clusterization and classification algorithms, integrated planning, mathematical modeling, optimization, penalty minimization

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Authors: Nosakhare Enoma, Alphose Zingoni

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The requirements for various toroidal shell forms are increasing due to new applications, available storage space and the consideration of appearance. Because of the complexity of some of these structural forms, the finite element method is nowadays mainly used for their analysis, even for simple static studies. This paper presents an easy-to-use analytical algorithm for pressurized multi-segmented toroidal shells of revolution. The membrane solution, which acts as a particular solution of the bending-theory equations, is developed based on membrane theory of shells, and a general approach is formulated for quantifying discontinuity effects at the shell junctions using the well-known Geckeler’s approximation. On superimposing these effects, and applying the ensuing solution to the problem of the pressurized toroid with four segments, closed-form stress results are obtained for the entire toroid. A numerical example is carried out using the developed method. The analytical results obtained show excellent agreement with those from the finite element method, indicating that the proposed method can be also used for complementing and verifying FEM results, and providing insights on other related problems.

Keywords: bending theory of shells, membrane hypothesis, pressurized toroid, segmented toroidal vessel, shell analysis

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Authors: Adedayo Jeremiah Adeyekun, Samuel Oluwagbemiga Ishola

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This paper aimed to identify the significance of sustainability in the built environment, the economic and environmental importance to building and construction projects. Sustainability in the built environment has been a key objective of research over the past several decades. Sustainability in the built environment requires reconciliation between economic, environmental and social impacts of design and planning decisions made during the life cycle of a project from inception to termination. Planning for sustainability in the built environment needs us to go beyond our individual disciplines to consider the variety of economic, social and environmental impacts of our decisions in the long term. A decision to build a green residential development in an isolated location may pass some of the test of sustainability through its reduction in stormwater runoff, energy efficiency, and ecological sustainability in the building, but it may fail to be sustainable from a transportation perspective. Sustainability is important to the planning, design, construction, and preservation of the built environment; because it helps these activities reflect multiple values and considerations. In fact, the arts and sciences of the built environment have traditionally integrated values and fostered creative expression, capabilities that can and should lead the sustainability movement as society seeks ways to live in dynamic balance with its own diverse needs and the natural world. This research aimed to capture the state-of-the-art in the development of innovative sustainable design and planning strategies for building and construction projects. Therefore, there is a need for a holistic selection and implication approach for identifying potential sustainable strategies applicable to a particular project and evaluating the overall life cycle impact of each alternative by accounting for different applicable impacts and making the final selection among various viable alternatives.

Keywords: sustainability, built environment, planning, design, construction

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Authors: Saurav Dhawan, Sanchit Bansal

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Background T-MACS is a computer-based decision aid that ‘rules in’ and ‘rules out’ ACS using a combination of the presence or absence of six clinical features with only one biomarker measured on arrival: hs-cTnT. T-MACS had 99.3% negative predictive value and 98.7% sensitivity for ACS, ‘ruling out’ ACS in 40% of patients while ‘ruling in’ 5% at the highest risk. We aim at benchmarking the use of T-MACS which could help to conserve healthcare resources, facilitate early discharges, and ensure safe practice. Methodology Randomized retrospective data collection (n=300) was done from ED electronic records across 3 hospital sites within MFT over a period of 2 months. Data was analysed and compared by percentage for the usage of T-MACS, number of admissions/discharges, and in days for length of stay in hospital. Results MRI A&E had the maximum compliance with the use of T-MACS in the trust at 66%, with minimum admissions (44%) and an average length of stay of 1.825 days. NMG A&E had an extremely low compliance rate (8 %), with 75% admission and 3.387 days as the average length of stay. WYT A&E had no TMACS recorded, with a maximum of 79% admissions and the longest average length of stay at 5.07 days. Conclusion All three hospital sites had a RAG rating of ‘RED’ as per the compliance levels. The assurance level was calculated as ‘Very Limited’ across all sites. There was a positive correlation observed between compliance with TMACS and direct discharges from ED, thereby reducing the average length of stay for patients in the hospital.

Keywords: ACS, discharges, ED, T-MACS

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Authors: Suhail Shersad

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Introduction In developing countries, the access to higher education for the lower socioeconomic strata is very poor at less than 0.05%. The challenges faced by prospective students in these circumstances to pursue higher education have been explored through direct interaction with them and their families in urban slums of New Delhi. This study included evaluation of the demographics, social indices, expectations and perceptions of selected communities. Results The results show that the poor life expectancy, low exposure to technology, lack of social infrastructure and poor sanitary conditions have reduced their drive for academic achievements. This is despite a good level of intelligence and critical thinking skills among these students. The perception of the community including parents shows that despite their desire to excel, there are too may roadblocks to achieving a fruitful professional life for the next generation. Discussion The prerequisites of higher education may have to be revisited to be more inclusive of socially handicapped students. The knowledge, skills and attributes required for higher education system should form the baseline for creating a roadmap for higher secondary education suited for local needs. Conventional parameters like marks and grading have to be re-looked so that life skills and vocational training form part of the core curriculum. Essential skills should be incorporated at an earlier age, providing an alternative pathway for such students to join higher education. Conclusion: There is a need to bridge the disconnect that exists between higher education planning, the needs of the concerned cohorts and the existing higher secondary education. The variables that contribute to making such a decision have to be examined further. Keywords: prerequisites of higher education, social mobility, society expectations, access to higher education

Keywords: access to higher education, prerequisites of higher education, society expectations, social mobility

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Authors: G. Venkata Rao, R. Srinivasa Rao, B. Neelima Sri Priya

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The over extraction of groundwater from the coastal aquifers, result in reduction of groundwater resource and lowering of water level. In general, the depletion of groundwater level enhances the landward migration of saltwater wedge. Now a days the ground water extraction increases by year to year because increased population and industrialization. The ground water is the only source of irrigation, domestic and Industrial purposes at Pydibhimavaram industrial area, which is located in the coastal belt of Srikakulam district, India of Latitudes 18.145N 83.627E and Longitudes 18.099N 83.674E. The present study has been attempted to calculate amount of water getting recharged into this aquifer, status of rainfall pattern for the past two decades and the runoff is calculated by using Khosla’s formula with available rainfall and temperature in the study area. A decision support model has been developed on the basis of Monthly Extractions of the water from the ground through bore wells and the Net Recharge of the aquifer. It is concluded that the amount of extractions is exceeding the amount of recharge from May to October in a given year which will in turn damage the water balance in the subsurface layers.

Keywords: aquifer, decision support model, groundwater extraction, run off estimation and rainfall

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Authors: Farzad Danaei, Yilmaz Akkaya

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In many civil engineering applications, especially in the construction of large concrete structures, the early age behavior of concrete has shown to be a crucial problem. The uneven rise in temperature within the concrete in these constructions is the fundamental issue for quality control. Therefore, developing accurate and fast temperature prediction models is essential. The thermal properties of concrete fluctuate over time as it hardens, but taking into account all of these fluctuations makes numerical models more complex. Experimental measurement of the thermal properties at the laboratory conditions also can not accurately predict the variance of these properties at site conditions. Therefore, specific heat capacity and the heat conductivity coefficient are two variables that are considered constant values in many of the models previously recommended. The proposed equations demonstrate that these two quantities are linearly decreasing as cement hydrates, and their value are related to the degree of hydration. The effects of changing the thermal conductivity and specific heat capacity values on the maximum temperature and the time it takes for concrete to reach that temperature are examined in this study using numerical sensibility analysis, and the results are compared to models that take a fixed value for these two thermal properties. The current study is conducted in 7 different mix designs of concrete with varying amounts of supplementary cementitious materials (fly ash and ground granulated blast furnace slag). It is concluded that the maximum temperature will not change as a result of the constant conductivity coefficient, but variable specific heat capacity must be taken into account, also about duration when a concrete's central node reaches its max value again variable specific heat capacity can have a considerable effect on the final result. Also, the usage of GGBFS has more influence compared to fly ash.

Keywords: early-age concrete, mass concrete, specific heat capacity, thermal conductivity coefficient

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Authors: Nkechi Neboh, Josiah Adeyemo, Abimbola Enitan, Oludayo Olugbara

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Evolutionary algorithms are techniques extensively used in the planning and management of water resources and systems. It is useful in finding optimal solutions to water resources problems considering the complexities involved in the analysis. River basin management is an essential area that involves the management of upstream, river inflow and outflow including downstream aspects of a reservoir. Water as a scarce resource is needed by human and the environment for survival and its management involve a lot of complexities. Management of this scarce resource is necessary for proper distribution to competing users in a river basin. This presents a lot of complexities involving many constraints and conflicting objectives. Evolutionary algorithms are very useful in solving this kind of complex problems with ease. Evolutionary algorithms are easy to use, fast and robust with many other advantages. Many applications of evolutionary algorithms, which are population based search algorithm, are discussed. Different methodologies involved in the modeling and simulation of water management problems in river basins are explained. It was found from this work that different evolutionary algorithms are suitable for different problems. Therefore, appropriate algorithms are suggested for different methodologies and applications based on results of previous studies reviewed. It is concluded that evolutionary algorithms, with wide applications in water resources management, are viable and easy algorithms for most of the applications. The results suggested that evolutionary algorithms, applied in the right application areas, can suggest superior solutions for river basin management especially in reservoir operations, irrigation planning and management, stream flow forecasting and real-time applications. The future directions in this work are suggested. This study will assist decision makers and stakeholders on the best evolutionary algorithm to use in varied optimization issues in water resources management.

Keywords: evolutionary algorithm, multi-objective, reservoir operation, river basin management

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Authors: Thomas Weber, Nina Strobel, Thomas Kohne, Eberhard Abele

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In context of the energy transition in Germany, the importance of so-called virtual power plants in the energy supply continues to increase. The progressive dismantling of the large power plants and the ongoing construction of many new decentralized plants result in great potential for optimization through synergies between the individual plants. These potentials can be exploited by mathematical optimization algorithms to calculate the optimal application planning of decentralized power and heat generators and storage systems. This also includes linear or linear mixed integer optimization. In this paper, procedures for reducing the number of decision variables to be calculated are explained and validated. On the one hand, this includes combining n similar installation types into one aggregated unit. This aggregated unit is described by the same constraints and target function terms as a single plant. This reduces the number of decision variables per time step and the complexity of the problem to be solved by a factor of n. The exact operating mode of the individual plants can then be calculated in a second optimization in such a way that the output of the individual plants corresponds to the calculated output of the aggregated unit. Another way to reduce the number of decision variables in an optimization problem is to reduce the number of time steps to be calculated. This is useful if a high temporal resolution is not necessary for all time steps. For example, the volatility or the forecast quality of environmental parameters may justify a high or low temporal resolution of the optimization. Both approaches are examined for the resulting calculation time as well as for optimality. Several optimization models for virtual power plants (combined heat and power plants, heat storage, power storage, gas turbine) with different numbers of plants are used as a reference for the investigation of both processes with regard to calculation duration and optimality.

Keywords: CHP, Energy 4.0, energy storage, MILP, optimization, virtual power plant

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Authors: Mohammed Hasan Salahat, Stave Wade

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This paper presents an application of a “Systematic Soft Domain Driven Design Framework” as a soft systems approach to domain-driven design of information systems development. The framework combining techniques from Soft Systems Methodology (SSM), the Unified Modeling Language (UML), and an implementation pattern knows as ‘Naked Objects’. This framework have been used in action research projects that have involved the investigation and modeling of business processes using object-oriented domain models and the implementation of software systems based on those domain models. Within this framework, Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) is used as a guiding methodology to explore the problem situation and to develop the domain model using UML for the given business domain. The framework is proposed and evaluated in our previous works, and a real case study ‘Information Retrieval System for Academic Research’ is used, in this paper, to show further practice and evaluation of the framework in different business domain. We argue that there are advantages from combining and using techniques from different methodologies in this way for business domain modeling. The framework is overviewed and justified as multi-methodology using Mingers Multi-Methodology ideas.

Keywords: SSM, UML, domain-driven design, soft domain-driven design, naked objects, soft language, information retrieval, multimethodology

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Authors: Tsedeke Lambore Gemecho, Ayele Taye Goshu

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The main objective of this study is to identify the determinants of the number of international migrants in a household and to compare regression models for count response. This study is done by collecting data from total of 2288 household heads of 16 randomly sampled districts in Hadiya and Kembata-Tembaro zones of Southern Ethiopia. The Poisson mixed models, as special cases of the generalized linear mixed model, is explored to determine effects of the predictors: age of household head, farm land size, and household size. Two ethnicities Hadiya and Kembata are included in the final model as dummy variables. Stepwise variable selection has indentified four predictors: age of head, farm land size, family size and dummy variable ethnic2 (0=other, 1=Kembata). These predictors are significant at 5% significance level with count response number of migrant. The Poisson mixed model consisting of the four predictors with random effects districts. Area specific random effects are significant with the variance of about 0.5105 and standard deviation of 0.7145. The results show that the number of migrant increases with heads age, family size, and farm land size. In conclusion, there is a significantly high number of international migration per household in the area. Age of household head, family size, and farm land size are determinants that increase the number of international migrant in households. Community-based intervention is needed so as to monitor and regulate the international migration for the benefits of the society.

Keywords: Poisson regression, GLM, number of migrant, Hadiya and Kembata Tembaro zones

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Authors: Xin Li, Ji-Yang Yu, Yue-Hua Niu, Lu-Yuan Wang

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As an inevitable chain of the space data acquirement system, space-borne storage system based on Nand Flash has gradually been implemented in spacecraft. In face of massive, parallel and varied data on board, efficient data management become an important issue of storage research. Face to the requirements of high-performance and reliability in Nand Flash storage system, a combination of hardware and file system design can drastically increase system dependability, even for missions with a very long duration. More sophisticated flash storage concepts with advanced operating systems have been researched to improve the reliability of Nand Flash storage system on satellites. In this paper, architecture of file system with multi-channel data acquisition and storage on board is proposed, which obtains large-capacity and high-performance with the combine of intra-channel pipeline and device partition in Nand Flash. Multi-channel data in different rate are stored as independent files with parallel-storage system in device partition, which assures the high-effective and reliable throughput of file treatments. For massive and high-speed data storage, an efficiency assessment model is established to calculate the bandwidth formula of intra-channel pipeline. Information tables designed in Magnetoresistive RAM (MRAM) hold the management of bad block in Nand Flash and the arrangement of file system address for the high-reliability of data storage. During the full-load test, the throughput of 3D PLUS Module 160Gb Nand Flash can reach 120Mbps for store and reach 120Mbps for playback, which efficiently satisfies the requirement of multi-channel data acquisition in Satellite. Compared with previous literature, the results of experiments verify the advantages of the proposed system.

Keywords: device partition architecture, intra-channel pipelining, nand flash, parallel storage

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Authors: Livia Calcagni

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Most of the largest cities in the world are located in areas that are vulnerable to coastal erosion and flooding, both linked to climate change and rising sea levels (RSL). Nevertheless, more and more people are moving to these vulnerable areas as cities keep growing. Architects, engineers and policy makers are called to rethink the way we live and to provide timely and adequate responses not only by investigating measures to improve the urban fabric, but also by developing strategies capable of planning change, exploring unusual and resilient frontiers of living, such as floating architecture. Since the beginning of the 21st century we have seen a dynamic growth of water-based architecture. At the same time, the shortage of land available for urban development also led to reclaim the seabed or to build floating structures. In light of these considerations, time is ripe to consider floating architecture not only as a full-fledged building typology but especially as a full-fledged adaptation solution for RSL. Currently, there is no global international legal framework for urban development on water and there is no structured performance based building design (PBBD) approach for floating architecture in most countries, let alone national regulatory systems. Thus, the research intends to identify the technological, morphological, functional, economic, managerial requirements that must be considered in a the development of the PBBD framework conceived as a meta-design tool. As it is expected that floating urban development is mostly likely to take place as extension of coastal areas, the needs and design criteria are definitely more similar to those of the urban environment than of the offshore industry. Therefor, the identification and categorization of parameters takes the urban-architectural guidelines and regulations as the starting point, taking the missing aspects, such as hydrodynamics, from the offshore and shipping regulatory frameworks. This study is carried out through an evidence-based assessment of performance guidelines and regulatory systems that are effective in different countries around the world addressing on-land and on-water architecture as well as offshore and shipping industries. It involves evidence-based research and logical argumentation methods. Overall, this paper highlights how inhabiting water is not only a viable response to the problem of RSL, thus a resilient frontier for urban development, but also a response to energy insecurity, clean water and food shortages, environmental concerns and urbanization, in line with Blue Economy principles and the Agenda 2030. Moreover, the discipline of architecture is presented as a fertile field for investigating solutions to cope with climate change and its effects on life safety and quality. Future research involves the development of a decision support system as an information tool to guide the user through the decision-making process, emphasizing the logical interaction between the different potential choices, based on the PBBD.

Keywords: adaptation measures, floating architecture, performance based building design, resilient architecture, rising sea levels

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Authors: Sudhir Kumar Singh, Debashish Chakravarty

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Slope stability analysis is an important aspect in the field of geotechnical engineering. It is also important from safety, and economic point of view as any slope failure leads to loss of valuable lives and damage to property worth millions. This paper aims at mitigating the risk of slope failure by studying the effect of different joint sets on the stability of mine pit slopes under the influence of various external factors, namely degree of saturation, rainfall intensity, and seismic coefficients. Supervised machine learning approach has been utilized for making accurate and reliable predictions regarding the stability of slopes based on the value of Factor of Safety. Numerous cases have been studied for analyzing the stability of slopes using the popular Finite Element Method, and the data thus obtained has been used as training data for the supervised machine learning models. The input data has been trained on different supervised machine learning models, namely Random Forest, Decision Tree, Support vector Machine, and XGBoost. Distinct test data that is not present in training data has been used for measuring the performance and accuracy of different models. Although all models have performed well on the test dataset but Random Forest stands out from others due to its high accuracy of greater than 95%, thus helping us by providing a valuable tool at our disposition which is neither computationally expensive nor time consuming and in good accordance with the numerical analysis result.

Keywords: finite element method, geotechnical engineering, machine learning, slope stability

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Authors: Farhan Beg, Raymond Moberly

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The Indian subcontinent is facing a massive challenge with regards to energy security in member countries, to provide reliable electricity to facilitate development across various sectors of the economy and consequently achieve the developmental targets. The instability of the current precarious situation is observable in the frequent system failures and blackouts. The deployment of interconnected electricity ‘Supergrid’ designed to carry huge quanta of power across the Indian sub-continent is proposed in this paper. Besides enabling energy security in the subcontinent, it will also provide a platform for Renewable Energy Sources (RES) integration. This paper assesses the need and conditions for a Supergrid deployment and consequently proposes a meshed topology based on Voltage Source High Voltage Direct Current (VSC-HVDC) converters for the Supergrid modeling. Various control schemes for the control of voltage and power are utilized for the regulation of the network parameters. A 3 terminal Multi Terminal Direct Current (MTDC) network is used for the simulations.

Keywords: super grid, wind and solar energy, high voltage direct current, electricity management, load flow analysis

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Authors: Endalew Fufa Kufi

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The research investigated the role of stakeholders such as students, teachers and administrators in the practices of good governance in higher education by looking into the special contributions of top-officials, teachers and students in ensuring workable ties and productive interchanges in Adama Science and Technology University. Attention was given to participation, fairness and exemplariness as key indicators of good governance. The target university was chosen for its familiarity for the researcher to get dependable data, access to respondent and management of the processing of data. Descriptive survey design was used for the purpose of describing concerned roles the stakeholders in the university governance in order to reflect on the nature of participation of the practices. Centres of the research were administration where supportive groups such as central administrators and underlying service-givers had parts and academia where teachers and students were target. Generally, 60 teachers, 40 students and 15 administrative officers were referents. Data were collected in the form of self-report through open-ended questionnaires. The findings indicated that, while vertical interchanges in terms of academic and administrative routines were had normal flow on top-down basis, planned practices of stakeholders in decision-making and reasonably communicating roles and changes in decisions with top-officials were not efficiently practiced. Moreover, the practices of good modelling were not witnessed to have existed to the fullest extent. Rather, existence of a very wide gap between the academic and administrative staffs was witnessed as was reflected the case between teachers and students. The implication was such that for shortage in participative atmosphere and weaning of fairness in governance, routine practices have been there as the vicious circles of governance.

Keywords: governance, participative, stakeholders, transformative, role-assumption

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Authors: Swati Bhomia, C. M. Kishtawal, Neeru Jaiswal

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Traditionally, monsoon forecasts have encountered many difficulties that stem from numerous issues such as lack of adequate upper air observations, mesoscale nature of convection, proper resolution, radiative interactions, planetary boundary layer physics, mesoscale air-sea fluxes, representation of orography, etc. Uncertainties in any of these areas lead to large systematic errors. Global circulation models (GCMs), which are developed independently at different institutes, each of which carries somewhat different representation of the above processes, can be combined to reduce the collective local biases in space, time, and for different variables from different models. This is the basic concept behind the multi-model superensemble and comprises of a training and a forecast phase. The training phase learns from the recent past performances of models and is used to determine statistical weights from a least square minimization via a simple multiple regression. These weights are then used in the forecast phase. The superensemble forecasts carry the highest skill compared to simple ensemble mean, bias corrected ensemble mean and the best model out of the participating member models. This approach is a powerful post-processing method for the estimation of weather forecast parameters reducing the direct model output errors. Although it can be applied successfully to the continuous parameters like temperature, humidity, wind speed, mean sea level pressure etc., in this paper, this approach is applied to rainfall, a parameter quite difficult to handle with standard post-processing methods, due to its high temporal and spatial variability. The present study aims at the development of advanced superensemble schemes comprising of 1-5 day daily precipitation forecasts from five state-of-the-art global circulation models (GCMs), i.e., European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (Europe), National Center for Environmental Prediction (USA), China Meteorological Administration (China), Canadian Meteorological Centre (Canada) and U.K. Meteorological Office (U.K.) obtained from THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE), which is one of the most complete data set available. The novel approaches include the dynamical model selection approach in which the selection of the superior models from the participating member models at each grid and for each forecast step in the training period is carried out. Multi-model superensemble based on the training using similar conditions is also discussed in the present study, which is based on the assumption that training with the similar type of conditions may provide the better forecasts in spite of the sequential training which is being used in the conventional multi-model ensemble (MME) approaches. Further, a variety of methods that incorporate a 'neighborhood' around each grid point which is available in literature to allow for spatial error or uncertainty, have also been experimented with the above mentioned approaches. The comparison of these schemes with respect to the observations verifies that the newly developed approaches provide more unified and skillful prediction of the summer monsoon (viz. June to September) rainfall compared to the conventional multi-model approach and the member models.

Keywords: multi-model superensemble, dynamical model selection, similarity criteria, neighborhood technique, rainfall prediction

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Authors: A. Shirazibeheshti, T. Radwan, A. Ettefaghian, G. Wilson, C. Luca, Farbod Khanizadeh

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Anticholinergic medication has been associated with events such as falls, delirium, and cognitive impairment in older patients. To further assess this, anticholinergic burden scores have been developed to quantify risk. A risk model based on clustering was deployed in a healthcare management system to cluster patients into multiple risk groups according to anticholinergic burden scores of multiple medicines prescribed to patients to facilitate clinical decision-making. To do so, anticholinergic burden scores of drugs were extracted from the literature, which categorizes the risk on a scale of 1 to 3. Given the patients’ prescription data on the healthcare database, a weighted anticholinergic risk score was derived per patient based on the prescription of multiple anticholinergic drugs. This study was conducted on over 300,000 records of patients currently registered with a major regional UK-based healthcare provider. The weighted risk scores were used as inputs to an unsupervised learning algorithm (mean-shift clustering) that groups patients into clusters that represent different levels of anticholinergic risk. To further evaluate the performance of the model, any association between the average risk score within each group and other factors such as socioeconomic status (i.e., Index of Multiple Deprivation) and an index of health and disability were investigated. The clustering identifies a group of 15 patients at the highest risk from multiple anticholinergic medication. Our findings also show that this group of patients is located within more deprived areas of London compared to the population of other risk groups. Furthermore, the prescription of anticholinergic medicines is more skewed to female than male patients, indicating that females are more at risk from this kind of multiple medications. The risk may be monitored and controlled in well artificial intelligence-equipped healthcare management systems.

Keywords: anticholinergic medicines, clustering, deprivation, socioeconomic status

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Authors: Partha Pratim Kalita

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As sound can be converted to light, light can also be deduced to sound. There are technologies to convert light to sound, but there are not many technologies related to the field where sound can be converted to a distinct vibrational sequence of light. Like the laws under which the principles of sound work, there are principles for the light to become quantum in nature. Thus, as we move from sound to the subtler aspects of light, we are moving from 3D to 5D. Either we will be making technologies of 3D in today’s world, or we will be really interested in making technologies of the 5D, depends on our understanding of how quantum 5D works. Right now, the entire world is talking about quantum, which is about the nature and behavior of subatomic particles, which is 5D. In practice, they are using metals and machines based on atomic structures. If we talk of quantum without taking note of the technologies of 5D and beyond, we will only be reinterpreting relative theories in the name of quantum. This paper, therefore, will explore the possibilities of moving towards quantum in its real essence with the Shoonya ecosystem (zero-point energy). In this context, the author shall highlight certain working models developed by him, which are currently in discussion with the Indian government.

Keywords: quantum mechanics, quantum technologies, healthcare, shoonya ecosystem, energy, human consciousness

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Authors: Triveni Gogoi, Rima Chatterjee

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Shear wave velocity (Vs) estimation is an important approach in the seismic exploration and characterization of a hydrocarbon reservoir. There are varying methods for prediction of S-wave velocity, if recorded S-wave log is not available. But all the available methods for Vs prediction are empirical mathematical models. Shear wave velocity can be estimated using P-wave velocity by applying Castagna’s equation, which is the most common approach. The constants used in Castagna’s equation vary for different lithologies and geological set-ups. In this study, multiple regression analysis has been used for estimation of S-wave velocity. The EMERGE module from Hampson-Russel software has been used here for generation of S-wave log. Both single attribute and multi attributes analysis have been carried out for generation of synthetic S-wave log in Upper Assam basin. Upper Assam basin situated in North Eastern India is one of the most important petroleum provinces of India. The present study was carried out using four wells of the study area. Out of these wells, S-wave velocity was available for three wells. The main objective of the present study is a prediction of shear wave velocities for wells where S-wave velocity information is not available. The three wells having S-wave velocity were first used to test the reliability of the method and the generated S-wave log was compared with actual S-wave log. Single attribute analysis has been carried out for these three wells within the depth range 1700-2100m, which corresponds to Barail group of Oligocene age. The Barail Group is the main target zone in this study, which is the primary producing reservoir of the basin. A system generated list of attributes with varying degrees of correlation appeared and the attribute with the highest correlation was concerned for the single attribute analysis. Crossplot between the attributes shows the variation of points from line of best fit. The final result of the analysis was compared with the available S-wave log, which shows a good visual fit with a correlation of 72%. Next multi-attribute analysis has been carried out for the same data using all the wells within the same analysis window. A high correlation of 85% has been observed between the output log from the analysis and the recorded S-wave. The almost perfect fit between the synthetic S-wave and the recorded S-wave log validates the reliability of the method. For further authentication, the generated S-wave data from the wells have been tied to the seismic and correlated them. Synthetic share wave log has been generated for the well M2 where S-wave is not available and it shows a good correlation with the seismic. Neutron porosity, density, AI and P-wave velocity are proved to be the most significant variables in this statistical method for S-wave generation. Multilinear regression method thus can be considered as a reliable technique for generation of shear wave velocity log in this study.

Keywords: Castagna's equation, multi linear regression, multi attribute analysis, shear wave logs

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Authors: Faten Hatem

Abstract:

This paper explores the associated understanding of the role and meaning of art and whether it is perceived to be separate from smart city construction. The paper emphasises the significance of fulfilling the inherent need for discovery and interaction, driving people to explore new places and think of works of art. This is done by exploring the ways of thinking and types of art in Milton Keynes by illustrating a general pattern of misunderstanding that relies on the separation between smart, art, and architecture, promoting a better and deeper understanding of the interconnections between neuroscience, art, and architecture. A reflective approach is used to clarify the potential and impact of using art-based research, methodology, and ways of knowing when approaching global phenomena and knowledge production while examining the process of making and developing smart cities, in particular, asserting that factors can severely impact it in the process of conducting the study itself. It follows a case study as a research strategy. The qualitative methods included data collection and analysis that involved interviews and observations that depended on visuals.

Keywords: smart cities, art and smart, smart cities design, smart cities making, sustainability, city brain and smart cities metrics, smart cities standards, smart cities applications, governance, planning and policy

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Authors: Hossein Jafari, Xiangfang Li, Lijun Qian, Alexander Aved, Timothy Kroecker

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Traditionally in sensor networks and recently in the Internet of Things, numerous heterogeneous sensors are deployed in distributed manner to monitor a phenomenon that often can be model by an underlying stochastic process. The big time-series data collected by the sensors must be analyzed to detect change in the stochastic process as quickly as possible with tolerable false alarm rate. However, sensors may have different accuracy and sensitivity range, and they decay along time. As a result, the big time-series data collected by the sensors will contain uncertainties and sometimes they are conflicting. In this study, we present a framework to take advantage of Evidence Theory (a.k.a. Dempster-Shafer and Dezert-Smarandache Theories) capabilities of representing and managing uncertainty and conflict to fast change detection and effectively deal with complementary hypotheses. Specifically, Kullback-Leibler divergence is used as the similarity metric to calculate the distances between the estimated current distribution with the pre- and post-change distributions. Then mass functions are calculated and related combination rules are applied to combine the mass values among all sensors. Furthermore, we applied the method to estimate the minimum number of sensors needed to combine, so computational efficiency could be improved. Cumulative sum test is then applied on the ratio of pignistic probability to detect and declare the change for decision making purpose. Simulation results using both synthetic data and real data from experimental setup demonstrate the effectiveness of the presented schemes.

Keywords: CUSUM, evidence theory, kl divergence, quickest change detection, time series data

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Authors: Leo Byrne, Neil Watts

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In the complex and evolving landscape of global trade, maritime sanctions emerge as a critical tool wielded by the international community to curb illegal activities and alter the behavior of non-compliant states and entities. These sanctions, designed to restrict or prohibit trade by sea with sanctioned jurisdictions, entities, or individuals, face continuous challenges due to the sophisticated evasion tactics employed by countries like North Korea. As the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) diverts significant resources to circumvent these measures, understanding the nuances of their methodologies becomes imperative for maintaining the integrity of global trade systems. The DPRK, one of the most sanctioned nations globally, has developed an intricate network to facilitate its trade in illicit goods, ensuring the flow of revenue from designated activities continues unabated. Given its geographic and economic conditions, North Korea predominantly relies on maritime routes, utilizing foreign ports to route its illicit trade. This reliance on the sea is exploited through various sophisticated methods, including the use of front companies, falsification of documentation, commingling of bulk cargos, and physical alterations to vessels. These tactics enable the DPRK to navigate through the gaps in regulatory frameworks and lax oversight, effectively undermining international sanctions regimes Maritime sanctions carry significant implications for global trade, imposing heightened risks in the maritime domain. The deceptive practices employed not only by the DPRK but also by other high-risk jurisdictions, necessitate a comprehensive understanding of UN targeted sanctions. For stakeholders in the maritime sector—including maritime authorities, vessel owners, shipping companies, flag registries, and financial institutions serving the shipping industry—awareness and compliance are paramount. Violations can lead to severe consequences, including reputational damage, sanctions, hefty fines, and even imprisonment. To mitigate risks associated with these deceptive practices, it is crucial for maritime sector stakeholders to employ rigorous due diligence and regulatory compliance screening measures. Effective sanctions compliance serves as a protective shield against legal, financial, and reputational risks, preventing exploitation by international bad actors. This requires not only a deep understanding of the sanctions landscape but also the capability to identify and manage risks through informed decision-making and proactive risk management practices. As the DPRK and other sanctioned entities continue to evolve their sanctions evasion tactics, the international community must enhance its collective efforts to demystify and counter these practices. By leveraging more stringent compliance measures, stakeholders can safeguard against the illicit use of the maritime domain, reinforcing the effectiveness of maritime sanctions as a tool for global security. This paper seeks to dissect North Korea's adaptive strategies in the face of maritime sanctions. By examining up-to-date, geographically, and temporally relevant case studies, it aims to shed light on the primary nodes through which Pyongyang evades sanctions and smuggles goods via third-party ports. The goal is to propose multi-level interaction strategies, ranging from governmental interventions to localized enforcement mechanisms, to counteract these evasion tactics.

Keywords: maritime, maritime sanctions, international sanctions, compliance, risk

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Authors: Hira Jabbar

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Education is vital for inclusive growth of an economy and a critical contributor for investment in human capital. Like other developing countries, Pakistan is facing enormous challenges regarding the provision of public facilities, improper infrastructure planning, accelerating rate of population and poor accessibility. The influence of the rapid advancement and innovations in GIS and RS techniques have proved to be a useful tool for better planning and decision making to encounter these challenges. Therefore present study incorporates GIS and RS techniques to investigate the spatial distribution of school facilities, identifies settlements with served and unserved population, finds potential areas for new schools based on population and develops an accessibility index to evaluate the higher accessibility for schools. For this purpose high-resolution worldview imagery was used to develop road network, settlements and school facilities and to generate school accessibility for each level. Landsat 8 imagery was utilized to extract built-up area by applying pre and post-processing models and Landscan 2015 was used to analyze population statistics. Service area analysis was performed using network analyst extension in ArcGIS 10.3v and results were evaluated for served and underserved areas and population. An accessibility tool was used to evaluate a set of potential destinations to determine which is the most accessible with the given population distribution. Findings of the study may contribute to facilitating the town planners and education authorities for understanding the existing patterns of school facilities. It is concluded that GIS and remote sensing can be effectively used in urban transport and facility planning.

Keywords: accessibility, geographic information system, landscan, worldview

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Authors: Noor Us Saher

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Oceans and Marine areas have a great importance, mainly regarding food resources, fishery products and reliance of livelihood. Aquatic pollution is common due to the incorporation of various chemicals mainly entering from urbanization, industrial and commercial facilities, such as oil and chemical spills. Many hazardous wastes and industrial effluents contaminate the nearby areas and initiate to affect the marine environment. These contaminated conditions may become worse in those aquatic environments situated besides the world’s largest cities, which are hubs of various commercial activities. Heavy metal contamination is one of the most important predicaments for marine environments and during past decades this problem has intensified due to an increase in urbanization and industrialization. Coastal regions of Pakistan are facing severe threats from various organic and inorganic pollutants, especially the estuarine and coastal areas of Karachi city, the most populated and industrialized city situated along the coastline. Metal contamination causes severe toxicity in biota resulting the degradation of Marine environments and depletion of fishery resources and sustainability. There are several abiotic (air, water and sediment) and biotic (fauna and flora) indicators that indicate metal contamination. However, all these indicators have certain limitations and complexities, which delay their implementation for rehabilitation and conservation in the marine environment. The inadequate evidences have presented on this significant topic till the time and this study discussed metal pollution and its consequences along the marine environment of Pakistan. This study further helps in identification of possible hazards for the ecological system and allied resources for management strategies and decision making for sustainable approaches.

Keywords: coastal and estuarine environment, heavy metals pollution, pollution indicators, Pakistan

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Authors: Shahad Nagoor, Lucy Hederman, Kevin Koidl, Annalina Caputo

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Doctors’ notes reflect their impressions, attitudes, clinical sense, and opinions about patients’ conditions and progress, and other information that is essential for doctors’ daily clinical decisions. Despite their value, clinical notes are insufficiently researched within the language processing community. Automatically extracting information from unstructured text data is known to be a difficult task as opposed to dealing with structured information such as vital physiological signs, images, and laboratory results. The aim of this research is to investigate how Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques and machine learning techniques applied to clinician notes can assist in doctors’ decision-making in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. The hypothesis is that clinical outcomes like survival or mortality can be useful in influencing the judgement of clinical sentiment in ICU clinical notes. This paper introduces two contributions: first, we introduce COVID_ICU_BERT, a fine-tuned version of clinical transformer models that can reliably predict clinical sentiment for notes of COVID patients in the ICU. We train the model on clinical notes for COVID-19 patients, a type of notes that were not previously seen by clinicalBERT, and Bio_Discharge_Summary_BERT. The model, which was based on clinicalBERT achieves higher predictive accuracy (Acc 93.33%, AUC 0.98, and precision 0.96 ). Second, we perform data augmentation using clinical contextual word embedding that is based on a pre-trained clinical model to balance the samples in each class in the data (survived vs. deceased patients). Data augmentation improves the accuracy of prediction slightly (Acc 96.67%, AUC 0.98, and precision 0.92 ).

Keywords: BERT fine-tuning, clinical sentiment, COVID-19, data augmentation

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Authors: Xvelian Qin

Abstract:

Urban "organic renewal" based on the development of existing resources in high-density urban areas has become the mainstream of urban development in the new era. As an important stock resource of public space in high-density urban areas, promoting its value remodeling is an effective way to alleviate the shortage of public space resources. However, due to the lack of evaluation links in the process of underpass space renewal, a large number of underpass space resources have been left idle, facing the problems of low space conversion efficiency, lack of accuracy in development decision-making, and low adaptability of functional positioning to citizens' needs. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to construct the evaluation system of under-bridge space renewal potential and explore the renewal mode. In this paper, some of the under-bridge spaces in the main urban area of Chongqing are selected as the research object. Through the questionnaire interviews with the users of the built excellent space under the bridge, three types of six levels and twenty-two potential evaluation indexes of "objective demand factor, construction feasibility factor and construction suitability factor" are selected, including six levels of land resources, infrastructure, accessibility, safety, space quality and ecological environment. The analytical hierarchy process and expert scoring method are used to determine the index weight, construct the potential evaluation system of the space under the bridge in high-density urban areas of Chongqing, and explore the direction of renewal and utilization of its suitability.

Keywords: space under bridge, potential evaluation, high density urban area, updated using

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Authors: Elnaz Saeedi, Jamileh Abolaghasemi, Mohsen Nasiri Tousi, Saeedeh Khosravi

Abstract:

Goals and Objectives: A typical analysis of survival data involves the modeling of time-to-event data, such as the time till death. A frailty model is a random effect model for time-to-event data, where the random effect has a multiplicative influence on the baseline hazard function. This article aims to investigate the use of gamma frailty model with concomitant variable in order to individualize the prognostic factors that influence the liver cirrhosis patients’ survival times. Methods: During the one-year study period (May 2008-May 2009), data have been used from the recorded information of patients with liver cirrhosis who were scheduled for liver transplantation and were followed up for at least seven years in Imam Khomeini Hospital in Iran. In order to determine the effective factors for cirrhotic patients’ survival in the presence of latent variables, the gamma frailty distribution has been applied. In this article, it was considering the parametric model, such as Exponential and Weibull distributions for survival time. Data analysis is performed using R software, and the error level of 0.05 was considered for all tests. Results: 305 patients with liver cirrhosis including 180 (59%) men and 125 (41%) women were studied. The age average of patients was 39.8 years. At the end of the study, 82 (26%) patients died, among them 48 (58%) were men and 34 (42%) women. The main cause of liver cirrhosis was found hepatitis 'B' with 23%, followed by cryptogenic with 22.6% were identified as the second factor. Generally, 7-year’s survival was 28.44 months, for dead patients and for censoring was 19.33 and 31.79 months, respectively. Using multi-parametric survival models of progressive and regressive, Exponential and Weibull models with regard to the gamma frailty distribution were fitted to the cirrhosis data. In both models, factors including, age, bilirubin serum, albumin serum, and encephalopathy had a significant effect on survival time of cirrhotic patients. Conclusion: To investigate the effective factors for the time of patients’ death with liver cirrhosis in the presence of latent variables, gamma frailty model with parametric distributions seems desirable.

Keywords: frailty model, latent variables, liver cirrhosis, parametric distribution

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Authors: Si Jack Chong, Chew Theng Yap, Wan Loong James Mok

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Introduction: Regional burn centres face the spectra of introduced multi-drug resistant organisms (MDRO) from transfer patients resident in MDRO endemic countries. MDRO can cause severe nosocomial infection, which in massive burn patients, will lead to greater morbidity and mortality and strain the institution financially. We aim to highlight 4 key measures that have effectively prevented transmission of imported MDRO. Methods: A case of Candida auris (C. auris) from a massive burn patient transferred from an MDRO endemic country is used to illustrate the measures. C. auris is a globally emerging multi-drug resistant fungal pathogen causing nosocomial transmission. Results: Infection control measures used to mitigate the risk of outbreak from transfer cases are: (1) Multidisciplinary team approach involving Infection Control and Infectious Disease specialists early to ensure appropriate antibiotics use and implementation of barrier measures, (2) aseptic procedures for dressing change with strict isolation and donning of personal protective equipment in the ward, (3) early screening of massive burn patient from MDRO endemic region, (4) hydrogen peroxide vaporization terminal cleaning for operating theatres and rooms. Conclusion: The prevalence of air travel and international transfer to regional burn centres will need effective infection control measures to reduce the risk of transmission from imported massive burn patients. In our centre, we have effectively implemented 4 measures which have reduced the risks of local contamination. We share a recent case report to illustrate successful management of a potential MDRO outbreak resulting from transfer of massive burn patient resident in an MDRO endemic area.

Keywords: burns, burn unit, cross infection, infection control

Procedia PDF Downloads 156