Search results for: financial market prediction
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 7751

Search results for: financial market prediction

4301 Analysis and Rule Extraction of Coronary Artery Disease Data Using Data Mining

Authors: Rezaei Hachesu Peyman, Oliyaee Azadeh, Salahzadeh Zahra, Alizadeh Somayyeh, Safaei Naser

Abstract:

Coronary Artery Disease (CAD) is one major cause of disability in adults and one main cause of death in developed. In this study, data mining techniques including Decision Trees, Artificial neural networks (ANNs), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) analyze CAD data. Data of 4948 patients who had suffered from heart diseases were included in the analysis. CAD is the target variable, and 24 inputs or predictor variables are used for the classification. The performance of these techniques is compared in terms of sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy. The most significant factor influencing CAD is chest pain. Elderly males (age > 53) have a high probability to be diagnosed with CAD. SVM algorithm is the most useful way for evaluation and prediction of CAD patients as compared to non-CAD ones. Application of data mining techniques in analyzing coronary artery diseases is a good method for investigating the existing relationships between variables.

Keywords: classification, coronary artery disease, data-mining, knowledge discovery, extract

Procedia PDF Downloads 657
4300 Suture Biomaterials Development from Natural Fibers: Muga Silk (Antheraea assama) and Ramie (Boehmeria nivea)

Authors: Raghuram Kandimalla, Sanjeeb Kalita, Bhaswati Choudhury, Jibon Kotoky

Abstract:

The quest for developing an ideal suture material prompted our interest to develop a novel suture with advantageous characteristics to market available ones. We developed novel suture biomaterial from muga silk (Antheraea assama) and ramie (Boehmeria nivea) plant fiber. Field emission scanning electron microscopy (FE-SEM), energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX), attenuated total reflection fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (ATR-FTIR) and thermo gravimetric analysis (TGA) results revealed the physicochemical properties of the fibers which supports the suitability of fibers for suture fabrication. Tensile properties of the prepared sutures were comparable with market available sutures and it found to be biocompatible towards human erythrocytes and nontoxic to mammalian cells. The prepared sutures completely healed the superficial deep wound incisions within seven days in adult male wister rats leaving no rash and scar. Histopathology studies supports the wound healing ability of sutures, as rapid synthesis of collagen, connective tissue and other skin adnexal structures were observed within seven days of surgery. Further muga suture surface modified by exposing the suture to oxygen plasma which resulted in formation of nanotopography on suture surface. Broad spectrum antibiotic amoxicillin was functionalized on the suture surface to prepare an advanced antimicrobial muga suture. Surface hydrophilicity induced by oxygen plasma results in an increase in drug-impregnation efficiency of modified muga suture by 16.7%. In vitro drug release profiles showed continuous and prolonged release of amoxicillin from suture up to 336 hours. The advanced muga suture proves to be effective against growth inhibition of Staphylococcus aureus and Escherichia coli, whereas normal muga suture offers no antibacterial activity against both types of bacteria. In vivo histopathology studies and colony-forming unit count data revealed accelerated wound healing activity of advanced suture over normal one through rapid synthesis and proliferation of collagen, hair follicle and connective tissues.

Keywords: sutures, biomaterials, silk, Ramie

Procedia PDF Downloads 317
4299 Research on Energy-Related Occupant Behavior of Residential Air Conditioning Based on Zigbee Intelligent Electronic Equipment

Authors: Dawei Xia, Benyan Jiang, Yong Li

Abstract:

Split-type air conditioners is widely used for indoor temperature regulation in urban residential buildings in summer in China. The energy-related occupant behavior has a great impact on building energy consumption. Obtaining the energy-related occupant behavior data of air conditioners is the research basis for the energy consumption prediction and simulation. Relying on the development of sensing and control technology, this paper selects Zigbee intelligent electronic equipment to monitor the energy-related occupant behavior of 20 households for 3 months in summer. Through analysis of data, it is found that people of different ages in the region have significant difference in the time, duration, frequency, and energy consumption of air conditioners, and form a data model of three basic energy-related occupant behavior patterns to provide an accurate simulation of energy.

Keywords: occupant behavior, Zigbee, split air conditioner, energy simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 196
4298 Proposing a Boundary Coverage Algorithm ‎for Underwater Sensor Network

Authors: Seyed Mohsen Jameii

Abstract:

Wireless underwater sensor networks are a type of sensor networks that are located in underwater environments and linked together by acoustic waves. The application of these kinds of network includes monitoring of pollutants (chemical, biological, and nuclear), oil fields detection, prediction of the likelihood of a tsunami in coastal areas, the use of wireless sensor nodes to monitor the passing submarines, and determination of appropriate locations for anchoring ships. This paper proposes a boundary coverage algorithm for intrusion detection in underwater sensor networks. In the first phase of the proposed algorithm, optimal deployment of nodes is done in the water. In the second phase, after the employment of nodes at the proper depth, clustering is executed to reduce the exchanges of messages between the sensors. In the third phase, the algorithm of "divide and conquer" is used to save energy and increase network efficiency. The simulation results demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: boundary coverage, clustering, divide and ‎conquer, underwater sensor nodes

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4297 The Capabilities Approach as a Future Alternative to Neoliberal Higher Education in the MENA Region

Authors: Ranya Elkhayat

Abstract:

This paper aims at offering a futures study for higher education in the Middle East. Paying special attention to the negative impacts of neoliberalism, the paper will demonstrate how higher education is now commodified, corporatized and how arts and humanities are eschewed in favor of science and technology. This conceptual paper argues against the neoliberal agenda and aims at providing an alternative exemplified in the Capabilities Approach with special reference to Martha Nussbaum’s theory. The paper is divided into four main parts: the current state of higher education under neoliberal values, a prediction of the conditions of higher education in the near future, the future of higher education using the theoretical framework of the Capabilities Approach, and finally, some areas of concern regarding the approach. The implications of the study demonstrate that Nussbaum’s Capabilities Approach will ensure that the values of education are preserved while avoiding the pitfalls of neoliberalism.

Keywords: capabilities approach, education future, higher education, MENA

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4296 'Enjoying the Czech Traditions with All Sences!': Tourism Product Promotion

Authors: Tomas Seidl

Abstract:

'Enjoy the Czech traditions with all sences!' is the main communication headline of one of the major current marketing project representing the intangible cultural heritage of the Czech Republic to its visitors. The project CZ.1.06/4.1.00/12.08915 and CZ.1.06/4.1.00/12.08916 which is solved in the period 2013-2015 is co-financed form the EU financial sources from the Integrated Operational Programme. The primary goal of the project was to analyze the dislocation and potential of the intangible cultural heritage in the Czech Republic. Further goal was to prepare a useful regionalization. An as solution based on the outcomes the creative and media strategy was created and prepared. The processor – CzechTourism expect the following web and mobile application development and successful marketing campaign in 2015.

Keywords: traditions, intangible cultural heritage, Czech Republic, CzechTourism, digital performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 368
4295 Design of Cloud Service Brokerage System Intermediating Integrated Services in Multiple Cloud Environment

Authors: Dongjae Kang, Sokho Son, Jinmee Kim

Abstract:

Cloud service brokering is a new service paradigm that provides interoperability and portability of application across multiple Cloud providers. In this paper, we designed cloud service brokerage system, any broker, supporting integrated service provisioning and SLA based service life cycle management. For the system design, we introduce the system concept and whole architecture, details of main components and use cases of primary operations in the system. These features ease the Cloud service provider and customer’s concern and support new Cloud service open market to increase cloud service profit and prompt Cloud service echo system in cloud computing related area.

Keywords: cloud service brokerage, multiple Clouds, Integrated service provisioning, SLA, network service

Procedia PDF Downloads 488
4294 [Keynote Talk]: Thermal Performance of Common Building Insulation Materials: Operating Temperature and Moisture Effect

Authors: Maatouk Khoukhi

Abstract:

An accurate prediction of the heat transfer through the envelope components of building is required to achieve an accurate cooling/heating load calculation which leads to precise sizing of the hvac equipment. This also depends on the accuracy of the thermal conductivity of the building insulation material. The proper use of thermal insulation in buildings (k-value) contribute significantly to reducing the HVAC size and consequently the annual energy cost. The first part of this paper presents an overview of building thermal insulation and their applications. The second part presents some results related to the change of the polystyrene insulation thermal conductivity with the change of the operating temperature and the moisture. Best-fit linear relationship of the k-value in term of the operating temperatures and different percentage of moisture content by weight has been established. The thermal conductivity of the polystyrene insulation material increases with the increase of both operating temperature and humidity content.

Keywords: building insulation material, moisture content, operating temperature, thermal conductivity

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4293 Number Variation of the Personal Pronoun We in American Spoken English

Authors: Qiong Hu, Ming Yue

Abstract:

Language variation signals the newest usage of language community, which might become the developmental trend of that language. The personal pronoun we is prescribed as a plural pronoun in grammar, but its number value is more flexible in actual use. Based on the homemade Friends corpus, the present research explores the number value of the first person pronoun we in nowadays American spoken English. With consideration of the subjectivity of we, this paper used ‘we+ PCU (Perception-cognation-utterance) verbs’ collocations and ‘we+ plural categories’ as the parameters. Results from corpus data and manual annotation show that: 1) the overall frequency of we has been increasing; 2) we has been increasingly used with other plural categories, indicating a weakening of its plural reference; and 3) we has been increasingly used with PCU (perception-cognition-utterance) verbs of strong subjectivity, indicating a strengthening of its singular reference. All these seem to support our hypothesis that we is undergoing the process of further grammaticalization towards a singular reference, though future evidence is needed to attest the bold prediction.

Keywords: number, PCU verbs, personal pronoun we,

Procedia PDF Downloads 234
4292 Envisioning Process in Medium Enterprises: An Exploratory Study of Cambodian Living Arts

Authors: Alexandre Bédard, Caroline Coulombe, Jonathan Harvey

Abstract:

Envisioning process (EP) in medium enterprises is treated equally in very small enterprises. Building on the concept of social construction, this study aims to explore how envisioning is constructed in a medium enterprise in which stakeholders are involved and how it is influenced. We use a unique case method based on qualitative data collected through 11 interviews representing various members of the organization. Through the discussion of the findings, we were able to confirm the social construction of the EP and to identify three main stakeholders responsible for the construction of the vision, mainly political and social powers, actors of the organization, and financial providers. Moreover, EP is influenced by external factors; in this case, the history of the organization and the value and importance of the art and the culture for Cambodians.

Keywords: envisioning process, social constructivism, medium enterprise, legitimacy

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4291 Determining Best Fitting Distributions for Minimum Flows of Streams in Gediz Basin

Authors: Naci Büyükkaracığan

Abstract:

Today, the need for water sources is swiftly increasing due to population growth. At the same time, it is known that some regions will face with shortage of water and drought because of the global warming and climate change. In this context, evaluation and analysis of hydrological data such as the observed trends, drought and flood prediction of short term flow has great deal of importance. The most accurate selection probability distribution is important to describe the low flow statistics for the studies related to drought analysis. As in many basins In Turkey, Gediz River basin will be affected enough by the drought and will decrease the amount of used water. The aim of this study is to derive appropriate probability distributions for frequency analysis of annual minimum flows at 6 gauging stations of the Gediz Basin. After applying 10 different probability distributions, six different parameter estimation methods and 3 fitness test, the Pearson 3 distribution and general extreme values distributions were found to give optimal results.

Keywords: Gediz Basin, goodness-of-fit tests, minimum flows, probability distribution

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4290 Part Variation Simulations: An Industrial Case Study with an Experimental Validation

Authors: Narendra Akhadkar, Silvestre Cano, Christophe Gourru

Abstract:

Injection-molded parts are widely used in power system protection products. One of the biggest challenges in an injection molding process is shrinkage and warpage of the molded parts. All these geometrical variations may have an adverse effect on the quality of the product, functionality, cost, and time-to-market. The situation becomes more challenging in the case of intricate shapes and in mass production using multi-cavity tools. To control the effects of shrinkage and warpage, it is very important to correctly find out the input parameters that could affect the product performance. With the advances in the computer-aided engineering (CAE), different tools are available to simulate the injection molding process. For our case study, we used the MoldFlow insight tool. Our aim is to predict the spread of the functional dimensions and geometrical variations on the part due to variations in the input parameters such as material viscosity, packing pressure, mold temperature, melt temperature, and injection speed. The input parameters may vary during batch production or due to variations in the machine process settings. To perform the accurate product assembly variation simulation, the first step is to perform an individual part variation simulation to render realistic tolerance ranges. In this article, we present a method to simulate part variations coming from the input parameters variation during batch production. The method is based on computer simulations and experimental validation using the full factorial design of experiments (DoE). The robustness of the simulation model is verified through input parameter wise sensitivity analysis study performed using simulations and experiments; all the results show a very good correlation in the material flow direction. There exists a non-linear interaction between material and the input process variables. It is observed that the parameters such as packing pressure, material, and mold temperature play an important role in spread on functional dimensions and geometrical variations. This method will allow us in the future to develop accurate/realistic virtual prototypes based on trusted simulated process variation and, therefore, increase the product quality and potentially decrease the time to market.

Keywords: correlation, molding process, tolerance, sensitivity analysis, variation simulation

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4289 Fault Tree Analysis and Bayesian Network for Fire and Explosion of Crude Oil Tanks: Case Study

Authors: B. Zerouali, M. Kara, B. Hamaidi, H. Mahdjoub, S. Rouabhia

Abstract:

In this paper, a safety analysis for crude oil tanks to prevent undesirable events that may cause catastrophic accidents. The estimation of the probability of damage to industrial systems is carried out through a series of steps, and in accordance with a specific methodology. In this context, this work involves developing an assessment tool and risk analysis at the level of crude oil tanks system, based primarily on identification of various potential causes of crude oil tanks fire and explosion by the use of Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), then improved risk modelling by Bayesian Networks (BNs). Bayesian approach in the evaluation of failure and quantification of risks is a dynamic analysis approach. For this reason, have been selected as an analytical tool in this study. Research concludes that the Bayesian networks have a distinct and effective method in the safety analysis because of the flexibility of its structure; it is suitable for a wide variety of accident scenarios.

Keywords: bayesian networks, crude oil tank, fault tree, prediction, safety

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4288 Thermal Ageing of a 316 Nb Stainless Steel: From Mechanical and Microstructural Analyses to Thermal Ageing Models for Long Time Prediction

Authors: Julien Monnier, Isabelle Mouton, Francois Buy, Adrien Michel, Sylvain Ringeval, Joel Malaplate, Caroline Toffolon, Bernard Marini, Audrey Lechartier

Abstract:

Chosen to design and assemble massive components for nuclear industry, the 316 Nb austenitic stainless steel (also called 316 Nb) suits well this function thanks to its mechanical, heat and corrosion handling properties. However, these properties might change during steel’s life due to thermal ageing causing changes within its microstructure. Our main purpose is to determine if the 316 Nb will keep its mechanical properties after an exposition to industrial temperatures (around 300 °C) during a long period of time (< 10 years). The 316 Nb is composed by different phases, which are austenite as main phase, niobium-carbides, and ferrite remaining from the ferrite to austenite transformation during the process. Our purpose is to understand thermal ageing effects on the material microstructure and properties and to submit a model predicting the evolution of 316 Nb properties as a function of temperature and time. To do so, based on Fe-Cr and 316 Nb phase diagrams, we studied the thermal ageing of 316 Nb steel alloys (1%v of ferrite) and welds (10%v of ferrite) for various temperatures (350, 400, and 450 °C) and ageing time (from 1 to 10.000 hours). Higher temperatures have been chosen to reduce thermal treatment time by exploiting a kinetic effect of temperature on 316 Nb ageing without modifying reaction mechanisms. Our results from early times of ageing show no effect on steel’s global properties linked to austenite stability, but an increase of ferrite hardness during thermal ageing has been observed. It has been shown that austenite’s crystalline structure (cfc) grants it a thermal stability, however, ferrite crystalline structure (bcc) favours iron-chromium demixion and formation of iron-rich and chromium-rich phases within ferrite. Observations of thermal ageing effects on ferrite’s microstructure were necessary to understand the changes caused by the thermal treatment. Analyses have been performed by using different techniques like Atomic Probe Tomography (APT) and Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC). A demixion of alloy’s elements leading to formation of iron-rich (α phase, bcc structure), chromium-rich (α’ phase, bcc structure), and nickel-rich (fcc structure) phases within the ferrite have been observed and associated to the increase of ferrite’s hardness. APT results grant information about phases’ volume fraction and composition, allowing to associate hardness measurements to the volume fractions of the different phases and to set up a way to calculate α’ and nickel-rich particles’ growth rate depending on temperature. The same methodology has been applied to DSC results, which allowed us to measure the enthalpy of α’ phase dissolution between 500 and 600_°C. To resume, we started from mechanical and macroscopic measurements and explained the results through microstructural study. The data obtained has been match to CALPHAD models’ prediction and used to improve these calculations and employ them to predict 316 Nb properties’ change during the industrial process.

Keywords: stainless steel characterization, atom probe tomography APT, vickers hardness, differential scanning calorimetry DSC, thermal ageing

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4287 Shift from Distance to In-Person Learning of Indigenous People’s Schools during the COVID 19 Pandemic: Gains and Challenges

Authors: May B. Eclar, Romeo M. Alip, Ailyn C. Eay, Jennifer M. Alip, Michelle A. Mejica, Eloy C.eclar

Abstract:

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly changed the educational landscape of the Philippines. The groups affected by these changes are the poor and those living in the Geographically Isolated and Depressed Areas (GIDA), such as the Indigenous Peoples (IP). This was heavily experienced by the ten IP schools in Zambales, a province in the country. With this in mind, plus other factors relative to safety, the Schools Division of Zambales selected these ten schools to conduct the pilot implementation of in-person classes two (2) years after the country-wide school closures. This study aimed to explore the lived experiences of the school heads of the first ten Indigenous People’s (IP) schools that shifted from distance learning to limited in-person learning. These include the challenges met and the coping mechanism they set to overcome the challenges. The study is linked to experiential learning theory as it focuses on the idea that the best way to learn things is by having experiences). It made use of qualitative research, specifically phenomenology. All the ten school heads from the IP schools were chosen as participants in the study. Afterward, participants underwent semi-structured interviews, both individual and focus group discussions, for triangulation. Data were analyzed through thematic analysis. As a result, the study found that most IP schools did not struggle to convince parents to send their children back to school as they downplay the pandemic threat due to their geographical location. The parents struggled the most during modular learning since many of them are either illiterate, too old to teach their children, busy with their lands, or have too many children to teach. Moreover, there is a meager vaccination rate in the ten barangays where the schools are located because of local beliefs. In terms of financial needs, school heads did not find it difficult even though funding is needed to adjust the schools to the new normal because of the financial support coming from the central office. Technical assistance was also provided to the schools by division personnel. Teachers also welcomed the idea of shifting back to in-person classes, and minor challenges were met but were solved immediately through various mechanisms. Learning losses were evident since most learners struggled with essential reading, writing, and counting skills. Although the community has positively received the conduct of in-person classes, the challenges these IP schools have been experiencing pre-pandemic were also exacerbated due to the school closures. It is therefore recommended that constant monitoring and provision of support must continue to solve other challenges the ten IP schools are still experiencing due to in-person classes

Keywords: In-person learning, indigenous peoples, phenomenology, philippines

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4286 Efficient Prediction of Surface Roughness Using Box Behnken Design

Authors: Ajay Kumar Sarathe, Abhinay Kumar

Abstract:

Production of quality products required for specific engineering applications is an important issue. The roughness of the surface plays an important role in the quality of the product by using appropriate machining parameters to eliminate wastage due to over machining. To increase the quality of the surface, the optimum machining parameter setting is crucial during the machining operation. The effect of key machining parameters- spindle speed, feed rate, and depth of cut on surface roughness has been evaluated. Experimental work was carried out using High Speed Steel tool and AlSI 1018 as workpiece material. In this study, the predictive model has been developed using Box-Behnken Design. An experimental investigation has been carried out for this work using BBD for three factors and observed that the predictive model of Ra value is closed to predictive value with a marginal error of 2.8648 %. Developed model establishes a correlation between selected key machining parameters that influence the surface roughness in a AISI 1018. F

Keywords: ANOVA, BBD, optimisation, response surface methodology

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4285 The Virtuos Taxation: A Theory of the Fair Tax System

Authors: Dario Rajmilovich

Abstract:

The tax system represents a multidisciplinary cosmos whose main purpose is to provide financial resources to the government of a given political jurisdiction in order to apply them to the public purposes outlined by that government. Not withstanding this basic external configuration of a finalistic order, its internal structure essentially responds to a series of principles or axes whose roots can be traced in the Old Testament (written Torah) and in oral sources (especially the KaBaLáh or Cábala compiled in the second century of the Common era in the book called "the Zóhar" (Book of Splendor) attributed to Rabi Shimón bar Iojái). The purpose of this work is to outline a general theory of taxation based on the biblical principles inherent to taxation and to project its effects in the configuration of a just tax system designated as "Virtuous Taxation".

Keywords: principles of taxation, kabaláh and taxation, old testament taxation, virtuous taxation

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4284 User-Centered Design in the Development of Patient Decision Aids

Authors: Ariane Plaisance, Holly O. Witteman, Patrick Michel Archambault

Abstract:

Upon admission to an intensive care unit (ICU), all patients should discuss their wishes concerning life-sustaining interventions (e.g., cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR)). Without such discussions, interventions that prolong life at the cost of decreasing its quality may be used without appropriate guidance from patients. We employed user-centered design to adapt an existing decision aid (DA) about CPR to create a novel wiki-based DA adapted to the context of a single ICU and tailored to individual patient’s risk factors. During Phase 1, we conducted three weeks of ethnography of the decision-making context in our ICU to identify clinician and patient needs for a decision aid. During this time, we observed five dyads of intensivists and patients discussing their wishes concerning life-sustaining interventions. We also conducted semi-structured interviews with the attending intensivists in this ICU. During Phase 2, we conducted three rounds of rapid prototyping involving 15 patients and 11 other allied health professionals. We recorded discussions between intensivists and patients and used a standardized observation grid to collect patients’ comments and sociodemographic data. We applied content analysis to field notes, verbatim transcripts and the completed observation grids. Each round of observations and rapid prototyping iteratively informed the design of the next prototype. We also used the programming architecture of a wiki platform to embed the GO-FAR prediction rule programming code that we linked to a risk graphics software to better illustrate outcome risks calculated. During Phase I, we identified the need to add a section in our DA concerning invasive mechanical ventilation in addition to CPR because both life-sustaining interventions were often discussed together by physicians. During Phase II, we produced a context-adapted decision aid about CPR and mechanical ventilation that includes a values clarification section, questions about the patient’s functional autonomy prior to admission to the ICU and the functional decline that they would judge acceptable upon hospital discharge, risks and benefits of CPR and invasive mechanical ventilation, population-level statistics about CPR, a synthesis section to help patients come to a final decision and an online calculator based on the GO-FAR prediction rule. Even though the three rounds of rapid prototyping led to simplifying the information in our DA, 60% (n= 3/5) of the patients involved in the last cycle still did not understand the purpose of the DA. We also identified gaps in the discussion and documentation of patients’ preferences concerning life-sustaining interventions (e.g.,. CPR, invasive mechanical ventilation). The final version of our DA and our online wiki-based GO-FAR risk calculator using the IconArray.com risk graphics software are available online at www.wikidecision.org and are ready to be adapted to other contexts. Our results inform producers of decision aids on the use of wikis and user-centered design to develop DAs that are better adapted to users’ needs. Further work is needed on the creation of a video version of our DA. Physicians will also need the training to use our DA and to develop shared decision-making skills about goals of care.

Keywords: ethnography, intensive care units, life-sustaining therapies, user-centered design

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4283 Contagion and Stock Interdependence in the BRIC+M Block

Authors: Christian Bucio Pacheco, Miriam Magnolia Sosa Castro, María Alejandra Cabello Rosales

Abstract:

This paper aims to analyze the contagion effect among the stock markets of the BRIC+M block (Brazil, Russia, India, China plus Mexico). The contagion effect is proved through increasing on dependence parameters during crisis periods. The dependence parameters are estimated through copula approach in a period of time from July 1997 to December 2015. During this period there are instability and calm episodes, allowing to analyze changes in the relations of dependence. Empirical results show strong evidence of time-varying dependence among the BRIC+M markets and an increasing dependence relation during global financial crisis period.

Keywords: BRIC+M Block, Contagion effect, Copula, dependence

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4282 Uncertainty of the Brazilian Earth System Model for Solar Radiation

Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Deivid Pires, Rafael Haag, Elton Gimenez Rossini

Abstract:

This study evaluated the uncertainties involved in the solar radiation projections generated by the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) of the Weather and Climate Prediction Center (CPTEC) belonging to Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5), with the aim of identifying efficiency in the projections for solar radiation of said model and in this way establish the viability of its use. Two different scenarios elaborated by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were evaluated: RCP 4.5 (with more optimistic contour conditions) and 8.5 (with more pessimistic initial conditions). The method used to verify the accuracy of the present model was the Nash coefficient and the Statistical bias, as it better represents these atmospheric patterns. The BESM showed a tendency to overestimate the data ​​of solar radiation projections in most regions of the state of Rio Grande do Sul and through the validation methods adopted by this study, BESM did not present a satisfactory accuracy.

Keywords: climate changes, projections, solar radiation, uncertainty

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4281 Semi Empirical Equations for Peak Shear Strength of Rectangular Reinforced Concrete Walls

Authors: Ali Kezmane, Said Boukais, Mohand Hamizi

Abstract:

This paper presents an analytical study on the behavior of reinforced concrete walls with rectangular cross section. Several experiments on such walls have been selected to be studied. Database from various experiments were collected and nominal shear wall strengths have been calculated using formulas, such as those of the ACI (American), NZS (New Zealand), Mexican (NTCC), and Wood and Barda equations. Subsequently, nominal shear wall strengths from the formulas were compared with the ultimate shear wall strengths from the database. These formulas vary substantially in functional form and do not account for all variables that affect the response of walls. There is substantial scatter in the predicted values of ultimate shear strength. Two new semi empirical equations are developed using data from tests of 57 walls for transitions walls and 27 for slender walls with the objective of improving the prediction of peak strength of walls with the most possible accurate.

Keywords: shear strength, reinforced concrete walls, rectangular walls, shear walls, models

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4280 Determination of Cadmium , Lead, Nickel, and Zinc in Some Green Tea Samples Collected from Libyan Markets

Authors: Jamal A. Mayouf, Hashim Salih Al Bayati

Abstract:

Green tea is one of the most common drinks in all cities of Libyan. Heavy metal contents such as cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), nickel (Ni) and zinc (Zn) were determined in four green tea samples collected from Libyan market and their tea infusions by using atomic emission spectrophotometry after acid digestion. The results obtained indicate that the concentrations of Cd, Pb, Ni, and Zn in tea infusions samples ranged from 0.07-0.12, 0.19-0.28, 0.09-0.15, 0.18-0.43 mg/l after boiling for 5 min., 0.06-0.08, 0.18-0.23, 0.08-0.14, 0.17-0.27 mg/l after boiling for 10 min., 0.07-0.11, 0.18-0.24, 0.08-0.14, 0.21-0.34 mg/l after boiling for 15 min. respectively. On the other hand, the concentrations of the same element mentioned above obtained in tea leaves ranged from 6.0-18.0, 36.0-42.0, 16.0-20.0, 44.0-132.0 mg/kg respectively. The concentrations of Cd, Pb, Ni and Zn in tea leaves samples were higher than Prevention of Food Adulteration (PFA) limit and World Health Organization(WHO) permissible limit.

Keywords: tea, infusion, metals, Libya

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4279 Building Brand Equity in a Stigmatised Market: A Cannabis Industry Case Study

Authors: Sibongile Masemola

Abstract:

In 2018, South Africa decriminalised recreational cannabis use and private cultivation, since then, cannabis businesses have been established to meet the demand. However, marketing activities remain limited in this industry, and businesses are unable to disseminate promotional messages, however, as a solution, firms can promote their brands and positioning instead of the actual product (Bick, 2015). Branding is essential to create differences among cannabis firms and to attract and keep customers (Abrahamsson, 2014). Building cannabis firms into brands can better position them in the mind of the consumer so that they become and remain competitive. The aim of this study was to explore how South African cannabis retailers can build brand equity in a stigmatised market, despite significant restrictions on marketing efforts. Keller’s (2001) customer-based brand equity (CBBE) model was used as the as the theoretical framework and explored how cannabis firms build their businesses into brands through developing their brand identity, meaning, performance, and relationships, and ultimately creating brand equity. The study employed a qualitative research method, using semi-structured in-depth interviews among 17 participants to gain insights from cannabis owners and marketers in the recreational cannabis environment. Most findings were presented according to the blocks of CBBE model. Furthermore, a conceptual framework named the stigma-based brand equity (SBBE) model was adapted from Keller’s CBBE model to include an additional building block that accounts for industry-specific characteristics unique to stigmatised markets. Findings revealed the pervasiveness of education and its significance to brand building in a stigmatised industry. Results also demonstrated the overall effect stigma has on businesses and their consumers due to the longstanding negative evaluations of cannabis. Hence, through stigma-bonding, brands can develop deep identity-related psychological bonds with their consumers that will potentially lead to strong brand resonance. This study aims to contribute business-relevant knowledge for firms operating in core-stigmatised markets under controlled marketing regulations by exploring how cannabis firms can build brand equity. Practically, this study presents recommendations for retailers in stigmatised markets on how to destigmatise, build brand identity, create brand meaning, elicit desired brand responses, and develop brand relationships – ultimately building brand equity.

Keywords: branding, brand equity, cannabis, organisational stigma

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4278 Improving University Operations with Data Mining: Predicting Student Performance

Authors: Mladen Dragičević, Mirjana Pejić Bach, Vanja Šimičević

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to develop models that would enable predicting student success. These models could improve allocation of students among colleges and optimize the newly introduced model of government subsidies for higher education. For the purpose of collecting data, an anonymous survey was carried out in the last year of undergraduate degree student population using random sampling method. Decision trees were created of which two have been chosen that were most successful in predicting student success based on two criteria: Grade Point Average (GPA) and time that a student needs to finish the undergraduate program (time-to-degree). Decision trees have been shown as a good method of classification student success and they could be even more improved by increasing survey sample and developing specialized decision trees for each type of college. These types of methods have a big potential for use in decision support systems.

Keywords: data mining, knowledge discovery in databases, prediction models, student success

Procedia PDF Downloads 407
4277 Proposed Terminal Device for End-to-End Secure SMS in Cellular Networks

Authors: Neetesh Saxena, Narendra S. Chaudhari

Abstract:

Nowadays, SMS is a very popular mobile service and even the poor, illiterate people and those living in rural areas use SMS service very efficiently. Although many mobile operators have already started 3G and 4G services, 2G services are still being used by the people in many countries. In 2G (GSM), only encryption provided is between the MS and the BTS, there is no end-to-end encryption available. Sometimes we all need to send some confidential message to other person containing bank account number, some password, financial details, etc. Normally, a message is sent in plain text only to the recipient and it is not an acceptable standard for transmitting such important and confidential information. Authors propose an end-to-end encryption approach by proposing a terminal for sending/receiving a secure message. An asymmetric key exchange algorithm is used in order to transmit secret shared key securely to the recipient. The proposed approach with terminal device provides authentication, confidentiality, integrity and non-repudiation.

Keywords: AES, DES, Diffie-Hellman, ECDH, A5, SMS

Procedia PDF Downloads 417
4276 Knowledge Transfer through Entrepreneurship: From Research at the University to the Consolidation of a Spin-off Company

Authors: Milica Lilic, Marina Rosales Martínez

Abstract:

Academic research cannot be oblivious to social problems and needs, so projects that have the capacity for transformation and impact should have the opportunity to go beyond the University circles and bring benefit to society. Apart from patents and R&D research contracts, this opportunity can be achieved through entrepreneurship as one of the most direct tools to turn knowledge into a tangible product. Thus, as an example of good practices, it is intended to analyze the case of an institutional entrepreneurship program carried out at the University of Seville, aimed at researchers interested in assessing the business opportunity of their research and expanding their knowledge on procedures for the commercialization of technologies used at academic projects. The program is based on three pillars: training, teamwork sessions and networking. The training includes aspects such as product-client fit, technical-scientific and economic-financial feasibility of a spin-off, institutional organization and decision making, public and private fundraising, and making the spin-off visible in the business world (social networks, key contacts, corporate image and ethical principles). On the other hand, the teamwork sessions are guided by a mentor and aimed at identifying research results with potential, clarifying financial needs and procedures to obtain the necessary resources for the consolidation of the spin-off. This part of the program is considered to be crucial in order for the participants to convert their academic findings into a business model. Finally, the networking part is oriented to workshops about the digital transformation of a project, the accurate communication of the product or service a spin-off offers to society and the development of transferable skills necessary for managing a business. This blended program results in the final stage where each team, through an elevator pitch format, presents their research turned into a business model to an experienced jury. The awarded teams get a starting capital for their enterprise and enjoy the opportunity of formally consolidating their spin-off company at the University. Studying the results of the program, it has been shown that many researchers have basic or no knowledge of entrepreneurship skills and different ways to turn their research results into a business model with a direct impact on society. Therefore, the described program has been used as an example to highlight the importance of knowledge transfer at the University and the role that this institution should have in providing the tools to promote entrepreneurship within it. Keeping in mind that the University is defined by three main activities (teaching, research and knowledge transfer), it is safe to conclude that the latter, and the entrepreneurship as an expression of it, is crucial in order for the other two to comply with their purpose.

Keywords: good practice, knowledge transfer, a spin-off company, university

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4275 Opportunities for Reducing Post-Harvest Losses of Cactus Pear (Opuntia Ficus-Indica) to Improve Small-Holder Farmers Income in Eastern Tigray, Northern Ethiopia: Value Chain Approach

Authors: Meron Zenaselase Rata, Euridice Leyequien Abarca

Abstract:

The production of major crops in Northern Ethiopia, especially the Tigray Region, is at subsistence level due to drought, erratic rainfall, and poor soil fertility. Since cactus pear is a drought-resistant plant, it is considered as a lifesaver fruit and a strategy for poverty reduction in a drought-affected area of the region. Despite its contribution to household income and food security in the area, the cactus pear sub-sector is experiencing many constraints with limited attention given to its post-harvest loss management. Therefore, this research was carried out to identify opportunities for reducing post-harvest losses and recommend possible strategies to reduce post-harvest losses, thereby improving production and smallholder’s income. Both probability and non-probability sampling techniques were employed to collect the data. Ganta Afeshum district was selected from Eastern Tigray, and two peasant associations (Buket and Golea) were also selected from the district purposively for being potential in cactus pear production. Simple random sampling techniques were employed to survey 30 households from each of the two peasant associations, and a semi-structured questionnaire was used as a tool for data collection. Moreover, in this research 2 collectors, 2 wholesalers, 1 processor, 3 retailers, 2 consumers were interviewed; and two focus group discussion was also done with 14 key farmers using semi-structured checklist; and key informant interview with governmental and non-governmental organizations were interviewed to gather more information about the cactus pear production, post-harvest losses, the strategies used to reduce the post-harvest losses and suggestions to improve the post-harvest management. To enter and analyze the quantitative data, SPSS version 20 was used, whereas MS-word were used to transcribe the qualitative data. The data were presented using frequency and descriptive tables and graphs. The data analysis was also done using a chain map, correlations, stakeholder matrix, and gross margin. Mean comparisons like ANOVA and t-test between variables were used. The analysis result shows that the present cactus pear value chain involves main actors and supporters. However, there is inadequate information flow and informal market linkages among actors in the cactus pear value chain. The farmer's gross margin is higher when they sell to the processor than sell to collectors. The significant postharvest loss in the cactus pear value chain is at the producer level, followed by wholesalers and retailers. The maximum and minimum volume of post-harvest losses at the producer level is 4212 and 240 kgs per season. The post-harvest loss was caused by limited farmers skill on-farm management and harvesting, low market price, limited market information, absence of producer organization, poor post-harvest handling, absence of cold storage, absence of collection centers, poor infrastructure, inadequate credit access, using traditional transportation system, absence of quality control, illegal traders, inadequate research and extension services and using inappropriate packaging material. Therefore, some of the recommendations were providing adequate practical training, forming producer organizations, and constructing collection centers.

Keywords: cactus pear, post-harvest losses, profit margin, value-chain

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4274 The Antecedent Factor Affecting the Entrepreneurs’ Decision Making for Using Accounting Office Service in Chiang Mai Province

Authors: Nawaporn Thongnut

Abstract:

The objective was to study the process and how to prepare the accounting of the Thai temples and to study the performance and quality in the accounting preparation of the temples in accordance with the regulation. The population was the accountants and individuals involved in the accounting preparation of 17 temples in the suburban Bangkok. The measurement used in this study was questionnaire. The statistics used in the analysis are the descriptive statistic. The data was presented in the form of percentage tables to describe the data on the demographic characteristics. The study found that temple wardens were responsible for the accounting and reporting of the temples. Abbots were to check the accuracy of the accounts in the monasteries. Mostly, there was no account auditing of the monasteries from the outside. The practice when receiving income for most of the monasteries had been keeping financial document in an orderly manner.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility, creating shared value, management accountant’s roles, stock exchange of Thailand

Procedia PDF Downloads 231
4273 Detecting of Crime Hot Spots for Crime Mapping

Authors: Somayeh Nezami

Abstract:

The management of financial and human resources of police in metropolitans requires many information and exact plans to reduce a rate of crime and increase the safety of the society. Geographical Information Systems have an important role in providing crime maps and their analysis. By using them and identification of crime hot spots along with spatial presentation of the results, it is possible to allocate optimum resources while presenting effective methods for decision making and preventive solutions. In this paper, we try to explain and compare between some of the methods of hot spots analysis such as Mode, Fuzzy Mode and Nearest Neighbour Hierarchical spatial clustering (NNH). Then the spots with the highest crime rates of drug smuggling for one province in Iran with borderline with Afghanistan are obtained. We will show that among these three methods NNH leads to the best result.

Keywords: GIS, Hot spots, nearest neighbor hierarchical spatial clustering, NNH, spatial analysis of crime

Procedia PDF Downloads 329
4272 Dynamical Models for Enviromental Effect Depuration for Structural Health Monitoring of Bridges

Authors: Francesco Morgan Bono, Simone Cinquemani

Abstract:

This research aims to enhance bridge monitoring by employing innovative techniques that incorporate exogenous factors into the modeling of sensor signals, thereby improving long-term predictability beyond traditional static methods. Using real datasets from two different bridges equipped with Linear Variable Displacement Transducer (LVDT) sensors, the study investigates the fundamental principles governing sensor behavior for more precise long-term forecasts. Additionally, the research evaluates performance on noisy and synthetically damaged data, proposing a residual-based alarm system to detect anomalies in the bridge. In summary, this novel approach combines advanced modeling, exogenous factors, and anomaly detection to extend prediction horizons and improve preemptive damage recognition, significantly advancing structural health monitoring practices.

Keywords: structural health monitoring, dynamic models, sindy, railway bridges

Procedia PDF Downloads 38