Search results for: spatial and temporal variations
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4401

Search results for: spatial and temporal variations

1101 NANCY: Combining Adversarial Networks with Cycle-Consistency for Robust Multi-Modal Image Registration

Authors: Mirjana Ruppel, Rajendra Persad, Amit Bahl, Sanja Dogramadzi, Chris Melhuish, Lyndon Smith

Abstract:

Multimodal image registration is a profoundly complex task which is why deep learning has been used widely to address it in recent years. However, two main challenges remain: Firstly, the lack of ground truth data calls for an unsupervised learning approach, which leads to the second challenge of defining a feasible loss function that can compare two images of different modalities to judge their level of alignment. To avoid this issue altogether we implement a generative adversarial network consisting of two registration networks GAB, GBA and two discrimination networks DA, DB connected by spatial transformation layers. GAB learns to generate a deformation field which registers an image of the modality B to an image of the modality A. To do that, it uses the feedback of the discriminator DB which is learning to judge the quality of alignment of the registered image B. GBA and DA learn a mapping from modality A to modality B. Additionally, a cycle-consistency loss is implemented. For this, both registration networks are employed twice, therefore resulting in images ˆA, ˆB which were registered to ˜B, ˜A which were registered to the initial image pair A, B. Thus the resulting and initial images of the same modality can be easily compared. A dataset of liver CT and MRI was used to evaluate the quality of our approach and to compare it against learning and non-learning based registration algorithms. Our approach leads to dice scores of up to 0.80 ± 0.01 and is therefore comparable to and slightly more successful than algorithms like SimpleElastix and VoxelMorph.

Keywords: cycle consistency, deformable multimodal image registration, deep learning, GAN

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1100 Objective Assessment of the Evolution of Microplastic Contamination in Sediments from a Vast Coastal Area

Authors: Vanessa Morgado, Ricardo Bettencourt da Silva, Carla Palma

Abstract:

The environmental pollution by microplastics is well recognized. Microplastics were already detected in various matrices from distinct environmental compartments worldwide, some from remote areas. Various methodologies and techniques have been used to determine microplastic in such matrices, for instance, sediment samples from the ocean bottom. In order to determine microplastics in a sediment matrix, the sample is typically sieved through a 5 mm mesh, digested to remove the organic matter, and density separated to isolate microplastics from the denser part of the sediment. The physical analysis of microplastic consists of visual analysis under a stereomicroscope to determine particle size, colour, and shape. The chemical analysis is performed by an infrared spectrometer coupled to a microscope (micro-FTIR), allowing to the identification of the chemical composition of microplastic, i.e., the type of polymer. Creating legislation and policies to control and manage (micro)plastic pollution is essential to protect the environment, namely the coastal areas. The regulation is defined from the known relevance and trends of the pollution type. This work discusses the assessment of contamination trends of a 700 km² oceanic area affected by contamination heterogeneity, sampling representativeness, and the uncertainty of the analysis of collected samples. The methodology developed consists of objectively identifying meaningful variations of microplastic contamination by the Monte Carlo simulation of all uncertainty sources. This work allowed us to unequivocally conclude that the contamination level of the studied area did not vary significantly between two consecutive years (2018 and 2019) and that PET microplastics are the major type of polymer. The comparison of contamination levels was performed for a 99% confidence level. The developed know-how is crucial for the objective and binding determination of microplastic contamination in relevant environmental compartments.

Keywords: measurement uncertainty, micro-ATR-FTIR, microplastics, ocean contamination, sampling uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 89
1099 An Artificial Intelligence Framework to Forecast Air Quality

Authors: Richard Ren

Abstract:

Air pollution is a serious danger to international well-being and economies - it will kill an estimated 7 million people every year, costing world economies $2.6 trillion by 2060 due to sick days, healthcare costs, and reduced productivity. In the United States alone, 60,000 premature deaths are caused by poor air quality. For this reason, there is a crucial need to develop effective methods to forecast air quality, which can mitigate air pollution’s detrimental public health effects and associated costs by helping people plan ahead and avoid exposure. The goal of this study is to propose an artificial intelligence framework for predicting future air quality based on timing variables (i.e. season, weekday/weekend), future weather forecasts, as well as past pollutant and air quality measurements. The proposed framework utilizes multiple machine learning algorithms (logistic regression, random forest, neural network) with different specifications and averages the results of the three top-performing models to eliminate inaccuracies, weaknesses, and biases from any one individual model. Over time, the proposed framework uses new data to self-adjust model parameters and increase prediction accuracy. To demonstrate its applicability, a prototype of this framework was created to forecast air quality in Los Angeles, California using datasets from the RP4 weather data repository and EPA pollutant measurement data. The results showed good agreement between the framework’s predictions and real-life observations, with an overall 92% model accuracy. The combined model is able to predict more accurately than any of the individual models, and it is able to reliably forecast season-based variations in air quality levels. Top air quality predictor variables were identified through the measurement of mean decrease in accuracy. This study proposed and demonstrated the efficacy of a comprehensive air quality prediction framework leveraging multiple machine learning algorithms to overcome individual algorithm shortcomings. Future enhancements should focus on expanding and testing a greater variety of modeling techniques within the proposed framework, testing the framework in different locations, and developing a platform to automatically publish future predictions in the form of a web or mobile application. Accurate predictions from this artificial intelligence framework can in turn be used to save and improve lives by allowing individuals to protect their health and allowing governments to implement effective pollution control measures.Air pollution is a serious danger to international wellbeing and economies - it will kill an estimated 7 million people every year, costing world economies $2.6 trillion by 2060 due to sick days, healthcare costs, and reduced productivity. In the United States alone, 60,000 premature deaths are caused by poor air quality. For this reason, there is a crucial need to develop effective methods to forecast air quality, which can mitigate air pollution’s detrimental public health effects and associated costs by helping people plan ahead and avoid exposure. The goal of this study is to propose an artificial intelligence framework for predicting future air quality based on timing variables (i.e. season, weekday/weekend), future weather forecasts, as well as past pollutant and air quality measurements. The proposed framework utilizes multiple machine learning algorithms (logistic regression, random forest, neural network) with different specifications and averages the results of the three top-performing models to eliminate inaccuracies, weaknesses, and biases from any one individual model. Over time, the proposed framework uses new data to self-adjust model parameters and increase prediction accuracy. To demonstrate its applicability, a prototype of this framework was created to forecast air quality in Los Angeles, California using datasets from the RP4 weather data repository and EPA pollutant measurement data. The results showed good agreement between the framework’s predictions and real-life observations, with an overall 92% model accuracy. The combined model is able to predict more accurately than any of the individual models, and it is able to reliably forecast season-based variations in air quality levels. Top air quality predictor variables were identified through the measurement of mean decrease in accuracy. This study proposed and demonstrated the efficacy of a comprehensive air quality prediction framework leveraging multiple machine learning algorithms to overcome individual algorithm shortcomings. Future enhancements should focus on expanding and testing a greater variety of modeling techniques within the proposed framework, testing the framework in different locations, and developing a platform to automatically publish future predictions in the form of a web or mobile application. Accurate predictions from this artificial intelligence framework can in turn be used to save and improve lives by allowing individuals to protect their health and allowing governments to implement effective pollution control measures.Air pollution is a serious danger to international wellbeing and economies - it will kill an estimated 7 million people every year, costing world economies $2.6 trillion by 2060 due to sick days, healthcare costs, and reduced productivity. In the United States alone, 60,000 premature deaths are caused by poor air quality. For this reason, there is a crucial need to develop effective methods to forecast air quality, which can mitigate air pollution’s detrimental public health effects and associated costs by helping people plan ahead and avoid exposure. The goal of this study is to propose an artificial intelligence framework for predicting future air quality based on timing variables (i.e. season, weekday/weekend), future weather forecasts, as well as past pollutant and air quality measurements. The proposed framework utilizes multiple machine learning algorithms (logistic regression, random forest, neural network) with different specifications and averages the results of the three top-performing models to eliminate inaccuracies, weaknesses, and biases from any one individual model. Over time, the proposed framework uses new data to self-adjust model parameters and increase prediction accuracy. To demonstrate its applicability, a prototype of this framework was created to forecast air quality in Los Angeles, California using datasets from the RP4 weather data repository and EPA pollutant measurement data. The results showed good agreement between the framework’s predictions and real-life observations, with an overall 92% model accuracy. The combined model is able to predict more accurately than any of the individual models, and it is able to reliably forecast season-based variations in air quality levels. Top air quality predictor variables were identified through the measurement of mean decrease in accuracy. This study proposed and demonstrated the efficacy of a comprehensive air quality prediction framework leveraging multiple machine learning algorithms to overcome individual algorithm shortcomings. Future enhancements should focus on expanding and testing a greater variety of modeling techniques within the proposed framework, testing the framework in different locations, and developing a platform to automatically publish future predictions in the form of a web or mobile application. Accurate predictions from this artificial intelligence framework can in turn be used to save and improve lives by allowing individuals to protect their health and allowing governments to implement effective pollution control measures.

Keywords: air quality prediction, air pollution, artificial intelligence, machine learning algorithms

Procedia PDF Downloads 127
1098 Characterising Indigenous Chicken (Gallus gallus domesticus) Ecotypes of Tigray, Ethiopia: A Combined Approach Using Ecological Niche Modelling and Phenotypic Distribution Modelling

Authors: Gebreslassie Gebru, Gurja Belay, Minister Birhanie, Mulalem Zenebe, Tadelle Dessie, Adriana Vallejo-Trujillo, Olivier Hanotte

Abstract:

Livestock must adapt to changing environmental conditions, which can result in either phenotypic plasticity or irreversible phenotypic change. In this study, we combine Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) and Phenotypic Distribution Modelling (PDM) to provide a comprehensive framework for understanding the ecological and phenotypic characteristics of indigenous chicken (Gallus gallus domesticus) ecotypes. This approach helped us to classify these ecotypes, differentiate their phenotypic traits, and identify associations between environmental variables and adaptive traits. We measured 297 adult indigenous chickens from various agro-ecologies, including 208 females and 89 males. A subset of the 22 measured traits was selected using stepwise selection, resulting in seven traits for each sex. Using ENM, we identified four agro-ecologies potentially harbouring distinct phenotypes of indigenous Tigray chickens. However, PDM classified these chickens into three phenotypical ecotypes. Chickens grouped in ecotype-1 and ecotype-3 exhibited superior adaptive traits compared to those in ecotype-2, with significant variance observed. This high variance suggests a broader range of trait expression within these ecotypes, indicating greater adaptation capacity and potentially more diverse genetic characteristics. Several environmental variables, such as soil clay content, forest cover, and mean temperature of the wettest quarter, were strongly associated with most phenotypic traits. This suggests that these environmental factors play a role in shaping the observed phenotypic variations. By integrating ENM and PDM, this study enhances our understanding of indigenous chickens' ecological and phenotypic diversity. It also provides valuable insights into their conservation and management in response to environmental changes.

Keywords: adaptive traits, agro-ecology, appendage, climate, environment, imagej, morphology, phenotypic variation

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1097 Recyclable Household Solid Waste Generation and Collection in Beijing, China

Authors: Tingting Liu, Yufeng Wu, Xi Tian, Yu Gong, Tieyong Zuo

Abstract:

The household solid waste generated by household in Beijing is increasing quickly due to rapid population growth and lifestyle changes. However, there are no rigorous data on the generation and collection of the recyclable household solid wastes. The Beijing city government needs this information to make appropriate policies and plans for waste management. To address this information need, we undertook the first comprehensive study of recyclable household solid waste for Beijing. We carried out a survey of 500 families across sixteen districts in Beijing. We also analyzed the quantities, spatial distribution and categories of collected waste handled by curbside recyclers and permanent recycling centers for 340 of the 9797 city-defined residential areas of Beijing. From our results, we estimate that the total quantity of recyclable household solid waste was 1.8 million tonnes generated by Beijing household in 2013 and 71.6% of that was collected. The main generation categories were waste paper (24.4%), waste glass bottle (23.7%) and waste furniture (14.3%). The recycling rate was varied among different kinds of municipal solid waste. Also based on our study, we estimate there were 22.8 thousand curbside recyclers and 5.7 thousand permanent recycling centers in Beijing. The problems of household solid waste collecting system were inadequacies of authorized collection centers, skewed ratios of curbside recyclers and authorized permanent recycling centers, weak recycling awareness of residents and lack of recycling resources statistics and appraisal system. According to the existing problems, we put forward the suggestions to improve household solid waste management.

Keywords: Municipal waste; Recyclable waste; Waste categories; Waste collection

Procedia PDF Downloads 296
1096 The Effect of a 12 Week Rhythmic Movement Intervention on Selected Biomotor Abilities on Academy Rugby Players

Authors: Jocelyn Solomons, Kraak

Abstract:

Rhythmic movement, also referred to as “dance”, involves the execution of different motor skills as well as the integration and sequencing of actions between limbs, timing and spatial precision. The aim of this study was therefore to investigate and compare the effect of a 16-week rhythmic movement intervention on flexibility, dynamic balance, agility, power and local muscular endurance of academy rugby players in the Western Cape, according to positional groups. Players (N ¼ 54) (age 18.66 0.81 years; height 1.76 0.69 cm; weight 76.77 10.69 kg), were randomly divided into a treatment-control [TCA] (n ¼ 28) and a control-treatment [CTB] (n ¼ 26) group. In this crossover experimental design, the interaction effect of the treatment order and the treatment time between the TCA and CTB group, was determined. Results indicated a statistically significant improvement (p < 0.05) in agility2 (p ¼ 0.06), power2 (p ¼ 0.05), local muscular endurance1 (p ¼ 0.01) & 3 (p ¼ 0.01) and dynamic balance (p < 0.01). Likewise, forwards and backs also showed statistically significant improvements (p < 0.05) per positional groups. Therefore, a rhythmic movement intervention has the potential to improve rugby-specific bio-motor skills and furthermore, improve positional specific skills should it be designed with positional groups in mind. Future studies should investigate, not only the effect of rhythmic movement on improving specific rugby bio-motor skills, but the potential of its application as an alternative training method during off- season (or detraining phases) or as a recovery method.

Keywords: agility, dance, dynamic balance, flexibility, local muscular endurance, power, training

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1095 Gold, Power, Protest, Examining How Digital Media and PGIS are Used to Protest the Mining Industry in Colombia

Authors: Doug Specht

Abstract:

This research project sought to explore the links between digital media, PGIS and social movement organisations in Tolima, Colombia. The primary aim of the research was to examine how knowledge is created and disseminated through digital media and GIS in the region, and whether there exists the infrastructure to allow for this. The second strand was to ascertain if this has had a significant impact on the way grassroots movements work and produce collective actions. The third element is a hypothesis about how digital media and PGIS could play a larger role in activist activities, particularly in reference to the extractive industries. Three theoretical strands have been brought together to provide a basis for this research, namely (a) the politics of knowledge, (b) spatial management and inclusion, and (c) digital media and political engagement. Quantitative data relating to digital media and mobile internet use was collated alongside qualitative data relating to the likelihood of using digital media in activist campaigns, with particular attention being given to grassroots movements working against extractive industries in the Tolima region of Colombia. Through interviews, surveys and GIS analysis it has been possible to build a picture of online activism and the role of PPGIS within protest movement in the region of Tolima, Colombia. Results show a gap between the desires of social movements to use digital media and the skills and finances required to implement programs that utilise it. Maps and GIS are generally reserved for legal cases rather than for informing the lay person. However, it became apparent that the combination of digital/social media and PPGIS could play a significant role in supporting the work of grassroots movements.

Keywords: PGIS, GIS, social media, digital media, mining, colombia, social movements, protest

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1094 Study of Influencing Factors of Shrinking Cities Based on Factor Analysis: The Example of Halle Germany

Authors: Fang Yao, Minglei Chen

Abstract:

City shrinkage is one of the thorny problems that many European cities have to face with nowadays. It is mainly expressed as the decrease of population in these cities. Eastern Germany is one of the pioneers of European shrinking cities with long shrinking history. Selecting one representative shrinking city Halle(Saale) in eastern Germany as research objective, collecting and investigating nearly 20 years (1993-2010) municipal data after the reunification of Germany. These data based on five dimensions, which are demographic, economic, social, spatial and environmental and total 16 eligible variables. Using Factor Analysis to dealing with these variables in order to assess the most important factors affecting shrinking Halle. The Factor Analysis shows that there are three main factors determine the shrinkage of Halle, namely demographical and economical factor, social stability factor, and city vitality factor. Three factors acts at different period of Halle’s shrinkage: from 1993 to 1997 the demographical and economical factor played an important role; from 1997 to 2004 the social stability is significant to city shrinkage; since 2005 city vitality factors determines the shrinkage of Halle. In recent years, the shrinkage in Halle mitigates that shows the sign of growing population. Thus the city Halle should focus on attaching more importance on the city vitality factor to prevent the city from shrinkage. Meanwhile, the city should possess a positive perspective that to shift the growth-oriented development to tap the potential of shrinking cities. This method is expected to apply to further research and other shrinking cities.

Keywords: demography, factor analysis, Halle, shrinking cities

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1093 The Control of Wall Thickness Tolerance during Pipe Purchase Stage Based on Reliability Approach

Authors: Weichao Yu, Kai Wen, Weihe Huang, Yang Yang, Jing Gong

Abstract:

Metal-loss corrosion is a major threat to the safety and integrity of gas pipelines as it may result in the burst failures which can cause severe consequences that may include enormous economic losses as well as the personnel casualties. Therefore, it is important to ensure the corroding pipeline integrity and efficiency, considering the value of wall thickness, which plays an important role in the failure probability of corroding pipeline. Actually, the wall thickness is controlled during pipe purchase stage. For example, the API_SPEC_5L standard regulates the allowable tolerance of the wall thickness from the specified value during the pipe purchase. The allowable wall thickness tolerance will be used to determine the wall thickness distribution characteristic such as the mean value, standard deviation and distribution. Taking the uncertainties of the input variables in the burst limit-state function into account, the reliability approach rather than the deterministic approach will be used to evaluate the failure probability. Moreover, the cost of pipe purchase will be influenced by the allowable wall thickness tolerance. More strict control of the wall thickness usually corresponds to a higher pipe purchase cost. Therefore changing the wall thickness tolerance will vary both the probability of a burst failure and the cost of the pipe. This paper describes an approach to optimize the wall thickness tolerance considering both the safety and economy of corroding pipelines. In this paper, the corrosion burst limit-state function in Annex O of CSAZ662-7 is employed to evaluate the failure probability using the Monte Carlo simulation technique. By changing the allowable wall thickness tolerance, the parameters of the wall thickness distribution in the limit-state function will be changed. Using the reliability approach, the corresponding variations in the burst failure probability will be shown. On the other hand, changing the wall thickness tolerance will lead to a change in cost in pipe purchase. Using the variation of the failure probability and pipe cost caused by changing wall thickness tolerance specification, the optimal allowable tolerance can be obtained, and used to define pipe purchase specifications.

Keywords: allowable tolerance, corroding pipeline segment, operation cost, production cost, reliability approach

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1092 Towards a Methodology for the Assessment of Neighbourhood Design for Happiness

Authors: Tina Pujara

Abstract:

Urban and regional research in the new emerging inter-disciplinary field of happiness is seemingly limited. However, it is progressively being recognized that there is enormous potential for social and behavioral scientists to add a spatial dimension to it. In fact, the happiness of communities can be notably influenced by the design and maintenance of the neighborhoods they inhabit. The probable key reasons being that places can facilitate human social connections and relationships. While it is increasingly being acknowledged that some neighborhood designs appear better suited for social connectedness than others, the plausible reasons for places to deter these characteristics and perhaps their influence on happiness are outwardly unknown. In addition, an explicit step wise methodology to assess neighborhood designs for happiness (of their communities) is not known to exist. This paper is an attempt towards developing such a methodological framework. The paper presents the development of a methodological framework for assessing neighborhood designs for happiness, with a particular focus on the outdoor shared spaces in neighborhoods. The developed methodological framework of investigation follows a mixed method approach and draws upon four different sources of information. The framework proposes an empirical examination of the contribution of neighborhood factors, particularly outdoor shared spaces, to individual happiness. One of the main tools proposed for this empirical examination is Jan Gehl’s Public Space Public Life (PSPL) Survey. The developed framework, as presented in the paper, is a contribution towards the development of a consolidated methodology for assessing neighborhood designs for happiness, which can further serve as a unique tool to inform urban designers, architects and other decision makers.

Keywords: happiness, methodology, neighbourhood design, outdoor shared spaces

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1091 Glaucoma with Normal IOP, Is It True Normal Tension glaucoma or Something Else!

Authors: Sushma Tejwani, Shoruba Dinakaran, Kushal Kacha, K. Bhujang Shetty

Abstract:

Introduction and aim: It is not unusual to find patients with glaucomatous damage and normal intraocular pressure, and to label a patient as Normal tension glaucoma (NTG) majority of clinicians depend on office Intraocular pressures (IOP) recordings; hence, the concern is that whether we are missing the late night or early morning spikes in this group of patients. Also, ischemia to the optic nerve is one of the presumed causes of damage in these patients, however demonstrating the same has been a challenge. The aim of this study was to evaluate IOP variations and patterns in a series of patients with open angles, glaucomatous discs or fields but normal office IOP, and in addition to identify ischemic factors for true NTG patients. Materials & Methods: This was an observational cross- sectional study from a tertiary care centre. The patients that underwent full day DVT from Jan 2012 to April 2014 were studied. All patients underwent IOP measurement on Goldmann applanation tonometry every 3 hours for 24 hours along with a recording of the blood pressure (BP). Further patients with normal IOP throughout the 24- hour period were evaluated with a cardiologist for echocardiography and carotid Doppler. Results: There were 47 patients and a maximum number of patients studied was in the age group of 50-70 years. A biphasic IOP peak was noted for almost all the patients. Out of the 47 patients, 2 were excluded from analysis as they were on treatment.20 patients (42%) were diagnosed on DVT to have an IOP spike and were then diagnosed as open angle glaucoma and another 25 (55%) were diagnosed to have normal tension glaucoma and were subsequently advised a carotid Doppler and a cardiologists consult. Another interesting finding was that 9 patients had a nocturnal dip in their BP and 3 were found to have carotid artery stenosis. Conclusion: A continuous 24-hour monitoring of the IOP and BP is a very useful albeit mildly cumbersome tool which provides a wealth of information in cases of glaucoma presenting with normal office pressures. It is of great value in differentiating between normal tension glaucoma patients & open angle glaucoma patients. It also helps in timely diagnosis & possible intervention due to referral to a cardiologist in cases of carotid artery stenosis.

Keywords: carotid artery disease in NTG, diurnal variation of IOP, ischemia in glaucoma, normal tension glaucoma

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1090 Poverty and Environmental Degeneration in Central City of Ibadan, Nigeria

Authors: Funmilayo Lanrewaju Amao, Amos Olusegun Amao, Odetoye Adeola Sunday, Joseph Joshua Olu

Abstract:

There is a high magnitude of housing inadequacy in urban centers in Nigeria. This is manifested in quantitative and qualitative terms. Severe overcrowding and insanitary physical environment characterize the housing in the urban centers. The culminating effect of this is the growth of slum areas. This paper takes a critical look at inter-allia history and anatomy, general characteristic, present condition, root causes, official responses and reactions, possible solution and advocacy housing in central city slum of Ibadan. It also examines slum development and consequent deviant behaviors in the inner-city neighborhoods of Ibadan, the capital city of Oyo State, Nigeria. Residing there are many underemployed and unemployed individuals, these are miscreants who are generally socially frustrated. The activities of this group of people are a cause of concern. Deleterious and anti-social behaviors such as prostitution and house burglary are commonplace in the neighborhoods. The paper examines building conditions in the neighborhoods and the nexus with the deviant behavior of the inhabitants. The paper affirms that there is monumental deficiency in housing quality, while the design and the arrangement of the buildings into spatial units significantly influence the behavior of the residents. The paper suggests a two-prong approach in dealing with the situation. This involves urban renewal and slum upgrading programmes on the one hand, and an improvement in the socio-economic circumstances of the inhabitants, especially an increase in employment opportunity on the other.

Keywords: slum, behavior, housing, poverty, environmental degeneration

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1089 Combining Laser Scanning and High Dynamic Range Photography for the Presentation of Bloodstain Pattern Evidence

Authors: Patrick Ho

Abstract:

Bloodstain Pattern Analysis (BPA) forensic evidence can be complex, requiring effective courtroom presentation to ensure clear and comprehensive understanding of the analyst’s findings. BPA witness statements can often involve reference to spatial information (such as location of rooms, objects, walls) which, when coupled with classified blood patterns, may illustrate the reconstructed movements of suspects and injured parties. However, it may be difficult to communicate this information through photography alone, despite this remaining the UK’s established method for presenting BPA evidence. Through an academic-police partnership between the University of Warwick and West Midlands Police (WMP), an integrated 3D scanning and HDR photography workflow for BPA was developed. Homicide scenes were laser scanned and, after processing, the 3D models were utilised in the BPA peer-review process. The same 3D models were made available for court but were not always utilised. This workflow has improved the ease of presentation for analysts and provided 3D scene models that assist with the investigation. However, the effects of incorporating 3D scene models in judicial processes may need to be studied before they are adopted more widely. 3D models from a simulated crime scene and West Midlands Police cases approved for conference disclosure are presented. We describe how the workflow was developed and integrated into established practices at WMP, including peer-review processes and witness statement delivery in court, and explain the impact the work has had on the Criminal Justice System in the West Midlands.

Keywords: bloodstain pattern analysis, forensic science, criminal justice, 3D scanning

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1088 Extracting Terrain Points from Airborne Laser Scanning Data in Densely Forested Areas

Authors: Ziad Abdeldayem, Jakub Markiewicz, Kunal Kansara, Laura Edwards

Abstract:

Airborne Laser Scanning (ALS) is one of the main technologies for generating high-resolution digital terrain models (DTMs). DTMs are crucial to several applications, such as topographic mapping, flood zone delineation, geographic information systems (GIS), hydrological modelling, spatial analysis, etc. Laser scanning system generates irregularly spaced three-dimensional cloud of points. Raw ALS data are mainly ground points (that represent the bare earth) and non-ground points (that represent buildings, trees, cars, etc.). Removing all the non-ground points from the raw data is referred to as filtering. Filtering heavily forested areas is considered a difficult and challenging task as the canopy stops laser pulses from reaching the terrain surface. This research presents an approach for removing non-ground points from raw ALS data in densely forested areas. Smoothing splines are exploited to interpolate and fit the noisy ALS data. The presented filter utilizes a weight function to allocate weights for each point of the data. Furthermore, unlike most of the methods, the presented filtering algorithm is designed to be automatic. Three different forested areas in the United Kingdom are used to assess the performance of the algorithm. The results show that the generated DTMs from the filtered data are accurate (when compared against reference terrain data) and the performance of the method is stable for all the heavily forested data samples. The average root mean square error (RMSE) value is 0.35 m.

Keywords: airborne laser scanning, digital terrain models, filtering, forested areas

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1087 The Potential of Potato and Maize Based Snacks as Fire Accelerants

Authors: E. Duffin, L. Brownlow

Abstract:

Arson is a crime which can provide exceptional problems to forensic specialists. Its destructive nature makes evidence much harder to find, especially when used to cover up another crime. There is a consistent potential threat of arsonists seeking new and easier ways to set fires. Existing research in this field primarily focuses on the use of accelerants such as petrol, with less attention to other more accessible and harder to detect materials. This includes the growing speculation of potato and maize-based snacks being used as fire accelerants. It was hypothesized that all ‘crisp-type’ snacks in foil packaging had the potential to act as accelerants and would burn readily in the various experiments. To test this hypothesis, a series of small lab-based experiments were undertaken, igniting samples of the snacks. Factors such as ingredients, shape, packaging and calorific value were all taken into consideration. The time (in seconds) spent on fire by the individual snacks was recorded. It was found that all of the snacks tested burnt for statistically similar amounts of time with a p-value of 0.0157. This was followed with a large mock real-life scenario using packets of crisps on fire and car seats to investigate as to the possibility of these snacks being verifiable tools to the arsonist. Here, three full packets of crisps were selected based on variations in burning during the lab experiments. They were each lit with a lighter to initiate burning, then placed onto a car seat to be timed and observed with video cameras. In all three cases, the fire was significant and sustained by the 200-second mark. On the basis of this data, it was concluded that potato and maize-based snacks were viable accelerants of fire. They remain an effective method of starting fires whilst being cheap, accessible, non-suspicious and non-detectable. The results produced supported the hypothesis that all ‘crisp-type’ snacks in foil packaging (that had been tested) had the potential to act as accelerants and would burn readily in the various experiments. This study serves to raise awareness and provide a basis for research and prevention of arson regarding maize and potato-based snacks as fire accelerants.

Keywords: arson, crisps, fires, food

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1086 Influence of Wind Induced Fatigue Damage in the Reliability of Wind Turbines

Authors: Emilio A. Berny-Brandt, Sonia E. Ruiz

Abstract:

Steel tubular towers serving as support structures for large wind turbines are subject to several hundred million stress cycles arising from the turbulent nature of the wind. This causes high-cycle fatigue which can govern tower design. The practice of maintaining the support structure after wind turbines reach its typical 20-year design life have become common, but without quantifying the changes in the reliability on the tower. There are several studies on this topic, but most of them are based on the S-N curve approach using the Miner’s rule damage summation method, the de-facto standard in the wind industry. However, the qualitative nature of Miner’s method makes desirable the use of fracture mechanics to measure the effects of fatigue in the capacity curve of the structure, which is important in order to evaluate the integrity and reliability of these towers. Temporal and spatially varying wind speed time histories are simulated based on power spectral density and coherence functions. Simulations are then applied to a SAP2000 finite element model and step-by-step analysis is used to obtain the stress time histories for a range of representative wind speeds expected during service conditions of the wind turbine. Rainflow method is then used to obtain cycle and stress range information of each of these time histories and a statistical analysis is performed to obtain the distribution parameters of each variable. Monte Carlo simulation is used here to evaluate crack growth over time in the tower base using the Paris-Erdogan equation. A nonlinear static pushover analysis to assess the capacity curve of the structure after a number of years is performed. The capacity curves are then used to evaluate the changes in reliability of a steel tower located in Oaxaca, Mexico, where wind energy facilities are expected to grow in the near future. Results show that fatigue on the tower base can have significant effects on the structural capacity of the wind turbine, especially after the 20-year design life when the crack growth curve starts behaving exponentially.

Keywords: crack growth, fatigue, Monte Carlo simulation, structural reliability, wind turbines

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1085 Simulation of Optimal Runoff Hydrograph Using Ensemble of Radar Rainfall and Blending of Runoffs Model

Authors: Myungjin Lee, Daegun Han, Jongsung Kim, Soojun Kim, Hung Soo Kim

Abstract:

Recently, the localized heavy rainfall and typhoons are frequently occurred due to the climate change and the damage is becoming bigger. Therefore, we may need a more accurate prediction of the rainfall and runoff. However, the gauge rainfall has the limited accuracy in space. Radar rainfall is better than gauge rainfall for the explanation of the spatial variability of rainfall but it is mostly underestimated with the uncertainty involved. Therefore, the ensemble of radar rainfall was simulated using error structure to overcome the uncertainty and gauge rainfall. The simulated ensemble was used as the input data of the rainfall-runoff models for obtaining the ensemble of runoff hydrographs. The previous studies discussed about the accuracy of the rainfall-runoff model. Even if the same input data such as rainfall is used for the runoff analysis using the models in the same basin, the models can have different results because of the uncertainty involved in the models. Therefore, we used two models of the SSARR model which is the lumped model, and the Vflo model which is a distributed model and tried to simulate the optimum runoff considering the uncertainty of each rainfall-runoff model. The study basin is located in Han river basin and we obtained one integrated runoff hydrograph which is an optimum runoff hydrograph using the blending methods such as Multi-Model Super Ensemble (MMSE), Simple Model Average (SMA), Mean Square Error (MSE). From this study, we could confirm the accuracy of rainfall and rainfall-runoff model using ensemble scenario and various rainfall-runoff model and we can use this result to study flood control measure due to climate change. Acknowledgements: This work is supported by the Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement(KAIA) grant funded by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (Grant 18AWMP-B083066-05).

Keywords: radar rainfall ensemble, rainfall-runoff models, blending method, optimum runoff hydrograph

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1084 Effect of Geometric Imperfections on the Vibration Response of Hexagonal Lattices

Authors: P. Caimmi, E. Bele, A. Abolfathi

Abstract:

Lattice materials are cellular structures composed of a periodic network of beams. They offer high weight-specific mechanical properties and lend themselves to numerous weight-sensitive applications. The periodic internal structure responds to external vibrations through characteristic frequency bandgaps, making these materials suitable for the reduction of noise and vibration. However, the deviation from architectural homogeneity, due to, e.g., manufacturing imperfections, has a strong influence on the mechanical properties and vibration response of these materials. In this work, we present results on the influence of geometric imperfections on the vibration response of hexagonal lattices. Three classes of geometrical variables are used: the characteristics of the architecture (relative density, ligament length/cell size ratio), imperfection type (degree of non-periodicity, cracks, hard inclusions) and defect morphology (size, distribution). Test specimens with controlled size and distribution of imperfections are manufactured through selective laser sintering. The Frequency Response Functions (FRFs) in the form of accelerance are measured, and the modal shapes are captured through a high-speed camera. The finite element method is used to provide insights on the extension of these results to semi-infinite lattices. An updating procedure is conducted to increase the reliability of numerical simulation results compared to experimental measurements. This is achieved by updating the boundary conditions and material stiffness. Variations in FRFs of periodic structures due to changes in the relative density of the constituent unit cell are analysed. The effects of geometric imperfections on the dynamic response of periodic structures are investigated. The findings can be used to open up the opportunity for tailoring these lattice materials to achieve optimal amplitude attenuations at specific frequency ranges.

Keywords: lattice architectures, geometric imperfections, vibration attenuation, experimental modal analysis

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1083 Power Performance Improvement of 500W Vertical Axis Wind Turbine with Salient Design Parameters

Authors: Young-Tae Lee, Hee-Chang Lim

Abstract:

This paper presents the performance characteristics of Darrieus-type vertical axis wind turbine (VAWT) with NACA airfoil blades. The performance of Darrieus-type VAWT can be characterized by torque and power. There are various parameters affecting the performance such as chord length, helical angle, pitch angle and rotor diameter. To estimate the optimum shape of Darrieustype wind turbine in accordance with various design parameters, we examined aerodynamic characteristics and separated flow occurring in the vicinity of blade, interaction between flow and blade, and torque and power characteristics derived from it. For flow analysis, flow variations were investigated based on the unsteady RANS (Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes) equation. Sliding mesh algorithm was employed in order to consider rotational effect of blade. To obtain more realistic results we conducted experiment and numerical analysis at the same time for three-dimensional shape. In addition, several parameters (chord length, rotor diameter, pitch angle, and helical angle) were considered to find out optimum shape design and characteristics of interaction with ambient flow. Since the NACA airfoil used in this study showed significant changes in magnitude of lift and drag depending on an angle of attack, the rotor with low drag, long cord length and short diameter shows high power coefficient in low tip speed ratio (TSR) range. On the contrary, in high TSR range, drag becomes high. Hence, the short-chord and long-diameter rotor produces high power coefficient. When a pitch angle at which airfoil directs toward inside equals to -2° and helical angle equals to 0°, Darrieus-type VAWT generates maximum power.

Keywords: darrieus wind turbine, VAWT, NACA airfoil, performance

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1082 Social Interaction Dynamics Exploration: The Case Study of El Sherouk City

Authors: Nardine El Bardisy, Wolf Reuter, Ayat Ismail

Abstract:

In Egypt, there is continuous housing demand as a result of rapid population growth. In 1979, this forced the government to establish new urban communities in order to decrease stress around delta. New Urban Communities Authority (NUCA) was formulated to take the responsibly of this new policy. These communities suffer from social life deficiency due to their typology, which is separated island with barriers. New urban communities’ typology results from the influence of neoliberalism movement and modern city planning forms. The lack of social interaction in these communities at present should be enhanced in the future. On a global perspective, sustainable development calls for creating more sustainable communities which include social, economic and environmental aspects. From 1960, planners were highly focusing on the promotion of the social dimension in urban development plans. The research hypothesis states: “It is possible to promote social interaction in new urban communities through a set of socio-spatial recommended strategies that are tailored for Greater Cairo Region context”. In order to test this hypothesis, the case of El-Sherouk city is selected, which represents the typical NUCA development plans. Social interaction indicators were derived from literature and used to explore different social dynamics in the selected case. The tools used for exploring case study are online questionnaires, face to face questionnaires, interviews, and observations. These investigations were analyzed, conclusions and recommendations were set to improve social interaction.

Keywords: new urban communities, modern planning, social interaction, social life

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1081 The Assessment of Particulate Matter Pollution in Kaunas Districts

Authors: Audrius Dedele, Aukse Miskinyte

Abstract:

Air pollution is a major problem, especially in large cities, causing a variety of environmental issues and a risk to human health effects. In order to observe air quality, to reduce and control air pollution in the city, municipalities are responsible for the creation of air quality management plans, air quality monitoring and emission inventories. Atmospheric dispersion modelling systems, along with monitoring, are powerful tools, which can be used not only for air quality management, but for the assessment of human exposure to air pollution. These models are widely used in epidemiological studies, which try to determine the associations between exposure to air pollution and the adverse health effects. The purpose of this study was to determine the concentration of particulate matter smaller than 10 μm (PM10) in different districts of Kaunas city during winter season. ADMS-Urban dispersion model was used for the simulation of PM10 pollution. The inputs of the model were the characteristics of stationary, traffic and domestic sources, emission data, meteorology and background concentrations were entered in the model. To assess the modelled concentrations of PM10 in Kaunas districts, geographic information system (GIS) was used. More detailed analysis was made using Spatial Analyst tools. The modelling results showed that the average concentration of PM10 during winter season in Kaunas city was 24.8 µg/m3. The highest PM10 levels were determined in Zaliakalnis and Aleksotas districts with are the highest number of individual residential properties, 32.0±5.2 and 28.7±8.2 µg/m3, respectively. The lowest pollution of PM10 was modelled in Petrasiunai district (18.4 µg/m3), which is characterized as commercial and industrial neighbourhood.

Keywords: air pollution, dispersion model, GIS, Particulate matter

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1080 Soil Salinity from Wastewater Irrigation in Urban Greenery

Authors: H. Nouri, S. Chavoshi Borujeni, S. Anderson, S. Beecham, P. Sutton

Abstract:

The potential risk of salt leaching through wastewater irrigation is of concern for most local governments and city councils. Despite the necessity of salinity monitoring and management in urban greenery, most attention has been on agricultural fields. This study was defined to investigate the capability and feasibility of monitoring and predicting soil salinity using near sensing and remote sensing approaches using EM38 surveys, and high-resolution multispectral image of WorldView3. Veale Gardens within the Adelaide Parklands was selected as the experimental site. The results of the near sensing investigation were validated by testing soil salinity samples in the laboratory. Over 30 band combinations forming salinity indices were tested using image processing techniques. The outcomes of the remote sensing and near sensing approaches were compared to examine whether remotely sensed salinity indicators could map and predict the spatial variation of soil salinity through a potential statistical model. Statistical analysis was undertaken using the Stata 13 statistical package on over 52,000 points. Several regression models were fitted to the data, and the mixed effect modelling was selected the most appropriate one as it takes to account the systematic observation-specific unobserved heterogeneity. Results showed that SAVI (Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index) was the only salinity index that could be considered as a predictor for soil salinity but further investigation is needed. However, near sensing was found as a rapid, practical and realistically accurate approach for salinity mapping of heterogeneous urban vegetation.

Keywords: WorldView3, remote sensing, EM38, near sensing, urban green spaces, green smart cities

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1079 Liver and Liver Lesion Segmentation From Abdominal CT Scans

Authors: Belgherbi Aicha, Hadjidj Ismahen, Bessaid Abdelhafid

Abstract:

The interpretation of medical images benefits from anatomical and physiological priors to optimize computer- aided diagnosis applications. Segmentation of liver and liver lesion is regarded as a major primary step in computer aided diagnosis of liver diseases. Precise liver segmentation in abdominal CT images is one of the most important steps for the computer-aided diagnosis of liver pathology. In this papers, a semi- automated method for medical image data is presented for the liver and liver lesion segmentation data using mathematical morphology. Our algorithm is currency in two parts. In the first, we seek to determine the region of interest by applying the morphological filters to extract the liver. The second step consists to detect the liver lesion. In this task; we proposed a new method developed for the semi-automatic segmentation of the liver and hepatic lesions. Our proposed method is based on the anatomical information and mathematical morphology tools used in the image processing field. At first, we try to improve the quality of the original image and image gradient by applying the spatial filter followed by the morphological filters. The second step consists to calculate the internal and external markers of the liver and hepatic lesions. Thereafter we proceed to the liver and hepatic lesions segmentation by the watershed transform controlled by markers. The validation of the developed algorithm is done using several images. Obtained results show the good performances of our proposed algorithm

Keywords: anisotropic diffusion filter, CT images, hepatic lesion segmentation, Liver segmentation, morphological filter, the watershed algorithm

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1078 Chitosan Hydrogel Containing Nitric Oxide Donors with Potent Antibacterial Effect

Authors: Milena Trevisan Pelegrino, Bruna De Araujo Lima, Mônica H. M. Do Nascimento, Christiane B. Lombello, Marcelo Brocchi, Amedea B. Seabra

Abstract:

Nitric oxide (NO) is a small molecule involved in a wide range of physiological and pathophysiological processes, including vasodilatation, control of inflammatory pain, wound healing, and antibacterial activities. As NO is a free radical, the design of drugs that generates therapeutic amounts of NO in controlled spatial and time manners is still a challenge. In this study, the NO donor S-nitrosoglutathione (GSNO) was incorporated into the thermoresponsive Pluronic F-127 (PL) - chitosan (CS) hydrogel, in an easy and economically feasible methodology. CS is a polysaccharide with known antimicrobial and biocompatibility properties. Scanning electron microscopy, rheology and differential scanning calorimetry techniques were used for hydrogel characterization. The results demonstrated that the hydrogel has a smooth surface, thermoresponsive behavior, and good mechanical stability. The kinetics of NO release and GSNO diffusion from GSNO-containing PL/CS hydrogel demonstrated a sustained NO/GSNO release, in concentrations suitable for biomedical applications, at physiological and skin temperatures. The GSNO-PL/CS hydrogel demonstrated a concentration-dependent toxicity to Vero cells, and antimicrobial activity to Pseudomonas aeruginosa (minimum inhibitory concentration and minimum bactericidal concentration values of 0.5 µg·mL-1 of hydrogel, which correspondents to 1 mmol·L-1 of GSNO). Interesting, the concentration range in which the NO-releasing hydrogel demonstrated antibacterial effect was not found toxic to Vero mammalian cell. Thus, GSNO-PL/CS hydrogel is suitable biomaterial for topical NO delivery applications.

Keywords: antimicrobial, chitosan, biocompatibility, S-nitrosothiols

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1077 Neural Networks Underlying the Generation of Neural Sequences in the HVC

Authors: Zeina Bou Diab, Arij Daou

Abstract:

The neural mechanisms of sequential behaviors are intensively studied, with songbirds a focus for learned vocal production. We are studying the premotor nucleus HVC at a nexus of multiple pathways contributing to song learning and production. The HVC consists of multiple classes of neuronal populations, each has its own cellular, electrophysiological and functional properties. During singing, a large subset of motor cortex analog-projecting HVCRA neurons emit a single 6-10 ms burst of spikes at the same time during each rendition of song, a large subset of basal ganglia-projecting HVCX neurons fire 1 to 4 bursts that are similarly time locked to vocalizations, while HVCINT neurons fire tonically at average high frequency throughout song with prominent modulations whose timing in relation to song remains unresolved. This opens the opportunity to define models relating explicit HVC circuitry to how these neurons work cooperatively to control learning and singing. We developed conductance-based Hodgkin-Huxley models for the three classes of HVC neurons (based on the ion channels previously identified from in vitro recordings) and connected them in several physiologically realistic networks (based on the known synaptic connectivity and specific glutaminergic and gabaergic pharmacology) via different architecture patterning scenarios with the aim to replicate the in vivo firing patterning behaviors. We are able, through these networks, to reproduce the in vivo behavior of each class of HVC neurons, as shown by the experimental recordings. The different network architectures developed highlight different mechanisms that might be contributing to the propagation of sequential neural activity (continuous or punctate) in the HVC and to the distinctive firing patterns that each class exhibits during singing. Examples of such possible mechanisms include: 1) post-inhibitory rebound in HVCX and their population patterns during singing, 2) different subclasses of HVCINT interacting via inhibitory-inhibitory loops, 3) mono-synaptic HVCX to HVCRA excitatory connectivity, and 4) structured many-to-one inhibitory synapses from interneurons to projection neurons, and others. Replication is only a preliminary step that must be followed by model prediction and testing.

Keywords: computational modeling, neural networks, temporal neural sequences, ionic currents, songbird

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1076 Engineering of Reagentless Fluorescence Biosensors Based on Single-Chain Antibody Fragments

Authors: Christian Fercher, Jiaul Islam, Simon R. Corrie

Abstract:

Fluorescence-based immunodiagnostics are an emerging field in biosensor development and exhibit several advantages over traditional detection methods. While various affinity biosensors have been developed to generate a fluorescence signal upon sensing varying concentrations of analytes, reagentless, reversible, and continuous monitoring of complex biological samples remains challenging. Here, we aimed to genetically engineer biosensors based on single-chain antibody fragments (scFv) that are site-specifically labeled with environmentally sensitive fluorescent unnatural amino acids (UAA). A rational design approach resulted in quantifiable analyte-dependent changes in peak fluorescence emission wavelength and enabled antigen detection in vitro. Incorporation of a polarity indicator within the topological neighborhood of the antigen-binding interface generated a titratable wavelength blueshift with nanomolar detection limits. In order to ensure continuous analyte monitoring, scFv candidates with fast binding and dissociation kinetics were selected from a genetic library employing a high-throughput phage display and affinity screening approach. Initial rankings were further refined towards rapid dissociation kinetics using bio-layer interferometry (BLI) and surface plasmon resonance (SPR). The most promising candidates were expressed, purified to homogeneity, and tested for their potential to detect biomarkers in a continuous microfluidic-based assay. Variations of dissociation kinetics within an order of magnitude were achieved without compromising the specificity of the antibody fragments. This approach is generally applicable to numerous antibody/antigen combinations and currently awaits integration in a wide range of assay platforms for one-step protein quantification.

Keywords: antibody engineering, biosensor, phage display, unnatural amino acids

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1075 Sliding Mode Power System Stabilizer for Synchronous Generator Stability Improvement

Authors: J. Ritonja, R. Brezovnik, M. Petrun, B. Polajžer

Abstract:

Many modern synchronous generators in power systems are extremely weakly damped. The reasons are cost optimization of the machine building and introduction of the additional control equipment into power systems. Oscillations of the synchronous generators and related stability problems of the power systems are harmful and can lead to failures in operation and to damages. The only useful solution to increase damping of the unwanted oscillations represents the implementation of the power system stabilizers. Power system stabilizers generate the additional control signal which changes synchronous generator field excitation voltage. Modern power system stabilizers are integrated into static excitation systems of the synchronous generators. Available commercial power system stabilizers are based on linear control theory. Due to the nonlinear dynamics of the synchronous generator, current stabilizers do not assure optimal damping of the synchronous generator’s oscillations in the entire operating range. For that reason the use of the robust power system stabilizers which are convenient for the entire operating range is reasonable. There are numerous robust techniques applicable for the power system stabilizers. In this paper the use of sliding mode control for synchronous generator stability improvement is studied. On the basis of the sliding mode theory, the robust power system stabilizer was developed. The main advantages of the sliding mode controller are simple realization of the control algorithm, robustness to parameter variations and elimination of disturbances. The advantage of the proposed sliding mode controller against conventional linear controller was tested for damping of the synchronous generator oscillations in the entire operating range. Obtained results show the improved damping in the entire operating range of the synchronous generator and the increase of the power system stability. The proposed study contributes to the progress in the development of the advanced stabilizer, which will replace conventional linear stabilizers and improve damping of the synchronous generators.

Keywords: control theory, power system stabilizer, robust control, sliding mode control, stability, synchronous generator

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1074 Evaluation of Weather Risk Insurance for Agricultural Products Using a 3-Factor Pricing Model

Authors: O. Benabdeljelil, A. Karioun, S. Amami, R. Rouger, M. Hamidine

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A model for preventing the risks related to climate conditions in the agricultural sector is presented. It will determine the yearly optimum premium to be paid by a producer in order to reach his required turnover. The model is based on both climatic stability and 'soft' responses of usually grown species to average climate variations at the same place and inside a safety ball which can be determined from past meteorological data. This allows the use of linear regression expression for dependence of production result in terms of driving meteorological parameters, the main ones of which are daily average sunlight, rainfall and temperature. By simple best parameter fit from the expert table drawn with professionals, optimal representation of yearly production is determined from records of previous years, and yearly payback is evaluated from minimum yearly produced turnover. The model also requires accurate pricing of commodity at N+1. Therefore, a pricing model is developed using 3 state variables, namely the spot price, the difference between the mean-term and the long-term forward price, and the long-term structure of the model. The use of historical data enables to calibrate the parameters of state variables, and allows the pricing of commodity. Application to beet sugar underlines pricer precision. Indeed, the percentage of accuracy between computed result and real world is 99,5%. Optimal premium is then deduced and gives the producer a useful bound for negotiating an offer by insurance companies to effectively protect its harvest. The application to beet production in French Oise department illustrates the reliability of present model with as low as 6% difference between predicted and real data. The model can be adapted to almost any agricultural field by changing state parameters and calibrating their associated coefficients.

Keywords: agriculture, production model, optimal price, meteorological factors, 3-factor model, parameter calibration, forward price

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1073 Analyzing Changes in Runoff Patterns Due to Urbanization Using SWAT Models

Authors: Asawari Ajay Avhad

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The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a hydrological model designed to predict the complex interactions within natural and human-altered watersheds. This research applies the SWAT model to the Ulhas River basin, a small watershed undergoing urbanization and characterized by bowl-like topography. Three simulation scenarios (LC17, LC22, and LC27) are investigated, each representing different land use and land cover (LULC) configurations, to assess the impact of urbanization on runoff. The LULC for the year 2027 is generated using the MOLUSCE Plugin of QGIS, incorporating various spatial factors such as DEM, Distance from Road, Distance from River, Slope, and distance from settlements. Future climate data is simulated within the SWAT model using historical data spanning 30 years. A susceptibility map for runoff across the basin is created, classifying runoff into five susceptibility levels ranging from very low to very high. Sub-basins corresponding to major urban settlements are identified as highly susceptible to runoff. With consideration of future climate projections, a slight increase in runoff is forecasted. The reliability of the methodology was validated through the identification of sub-basins known for experiencing severe flood events, which were determined to be highly susceptible to runoff. The susceptibility map successfully pinpointed these sub-basins with a track record of extreme flood occurrences, thus reinforcing the credibility of the assessment methodology. This study suggests that the methodology employed could serve as a valuable tool in flood management planning.

Keywords: future land use impact, flood management, run off prediction, ArcSWAT

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1072 Transdisciplinarity Research Approach and Transit-Oriented Development Model for Urban Development Integration in South African Cities

Authors: Thendo Mafame

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There is a need for academic research to focus on solving or contributing to solving real-world societal problems. Transdisciplinary research (TDR) provides a way to produce functional and applicable research findings, which can be used to advance developmental causes. This TDR study explores ways in which South Africa’s spatial divide, entrenched through decades of discriminatory planning policies, can be restructured to bring about equitable access to places of employment, business, leisure, and service for previously marginalised South Africans. It does by exploring the potential of the transit-orientated development (TOD) model to restructure and revitalise urban spaces in a collaborative model. The study focuses, through a case study, on the Du Toit station precinct in the town of Stellenbosch, on the peri-urban edge of the city of Cape Town, South Africa. The TOD model is increasingly viewed as an effective strategy for creating sustainable urban redevelopment initiatives, and it has been deployed successfully in other parts of the world. The model, which emphasises development density, diversity of land-use and infrastructure and transformative design, is customisable to a variety of country contexts. This study made use of case study approach with mixed methods to collect and analyse data. Various research methods used include the above-mentioned focus group discussions and interviews, as well as observation, transect walks This research contributes to the professional development of TDR studies that are focused on urbanisation issues.

Keywords: case study, integrated urban development, land-use, stakeholder collaboration, transit-oriented development, transdisciplinary research

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