Search results for: trend surface analysis

Authors: Ivy Chen XQ

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This research places a much-needed focus on the conservation of the Blue Economy (BE) by focusing on the design and development of monitoring systems to track critical indicators on the status of the BE. In this process, local experiences provide an insight into important community issues, as well as the necessity to cooperate and collaborate in order to achieve sustainable options. Researchers worldwide and industry initiatives over the last decade show that the exploitation of marine resources has resulted in a significant decrease in the share of total allowable catch (TAC). The result has been strengthening law enforcement, yet the results have shown that problems were related to poor policies, a lack of understanding of over-exploitation, biological uncertainty and political pressures. This reality and other statistics that show a significant negative impact on the attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), warrant an emphasis on the development of national M&E systems, in order to provide evidence-based information, on the nature and scale of especially transnational fisheries crime and under-sea marine resources in the BE. In particular, a need exists to establish a compendium of relevant BE indicators to assess such impact against the SDGs by using selected SDG indicators for this purpose. The research methodology consists of ATLAS.ti qualitative approach and a case study will be developed of Illegal, unregulated and unreported (IUU) poaching and Illegal Wildlife Trade (IWT) as component of the BE as it relates to the case of abalone in southern Africa and Far East. This research project will make an original contribution through the analysis and comparative assessment of available indicators, in the design process of M&E systems and developing indicators and monitoring frameworks in order to track critical trends and tendencies on the status of the BE, to ensure specific objectives to be aligned with the indicators of the SDGs framework. The research will provide a set of recommendations to governments and stakeholders involved in such projects on lessons learned, as well as priorities for future research. The research findings will enable scholars, civil society institutions, donors and public servants, to understand the capability of the M&E systems, the importance of showing multi-level governance, in the coordination of information management, together with knowledge management (KM) and M&E at the international, regional, national and local levels. This coordination should focus on a sustainable development management approach, based on addressing socio-economic challenges to the potential and sustainability of BE, with an emphasis on ecosystem resilience, social equity and resource efficiency. This research and study focus are timely as the opportunities of the post-Covid-19 crisis recovery package will be grasped to set the economy on a path to sustainable development in line with the UN 2030 Agenda. The pandemic raises more awareness for the world to eliminate IUU poaching and illegal wildlife trade (IWT).

Keywords: Blue Economy (BE), transnational governance, Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E), Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

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Authors: Duncan Wallace, M-Tahar Kechadi

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In recent years, Machine Learning (ML) approaches have been successfully applied to an analysis of patient symptom data in the context of disease diagnosis, at least where such data is well codified. However, much of the data present in Electronic Health Records (EHR) are unlikely to prove suitable for classic ML approaches. Furthermore, as scores of data are widely spread across both hospitals and individuals, a decentralized, computationally scalable methodology is a priority. The focus of this paper is to develop a method to predict outliers in an out-of-hours healthcare provision center (OOHC). In particular, our research is based upon the early identification of patients who have underlying conditions which will cause them to repeatedly require medical attention. OOHC act as an ad-hoc delivery of triage and treatment, where interactions occur without recourse to a full medical history of the patient in question. Medical histories, relating to patients contacting an OOHC, may reside in several distinct EHR systems in multiple hospitals or surgeries, which are unavailable to the OOHC in question. As such, although a local solution is optimal for this problem, it follows that the data under investigation is incomplete, heterogeneous, and comprised mostly of noisy textual notes compiled during routine OOHC activities. Through the use of Deep Learning methodologies, the aim of this paper is to provide the means to identify patient cases, upon initial contact, which are likely to relate to such outliers. To this end, we compare the performance of Long Short-Term Memory, Gated Recurrent Units, and combinations of both with Convolutional Neural Networks. A further aim of this paper is to elucidate the discovery of such outliers by examining the exact terms which provide a strong indication of positive and negative case entries. While free-text is the principal data extracted from EHRs for classification, EHRs also contain normalized features. Although the specific demographical features treated within our corpus are relatively limited in scope, we examine whether it is beneficial to include such features among the inputs to our neural network, or whether these features are more successfully exploited in conjunction with a different form of a classifier. In this section, we compare the performance of randomly generated regression trees and support vector machines and determine the extent to which our classification program can be improved upon by using either of these machine learning approaches in conjunction with the output of our Recurrent Neural Network application. The output of our neural network is also used to help determine the most significant lexemes present within the corpus for determining high-risk patients. By combining the confidence of our classification program in relation to lexemes within true positive and true negative cases, with an inverse document frequency of the lexemes related to these cases, we can determine what features act as the primary indicators of frequent-attender and non-frequent-attender cases, providing a human interpretable appreciation of how our program classifies cases.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, data-mining, machine learning, medical informatics

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Authors: Magdalena Rost-Roszkowska, Izabela Poprawa, Alina Chachulska-Zymelka, Lukasz Chajec, Grazyna Wilczek, Piotr Wilczek, Malgorzata Lesniewska

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Lithobius forficatus, commonly known as the brown centipede, is a widespread European species, which lives in the upper layers of soil, under stones, litter, rocks, and leaves. As the soil organism, it is exposed to numerous stressors such as xenobiotics, including heavy metals, temperature, starvation, pathogens, etc. Heavy metals are treated as the environmental pollutants of the soil because of their toxic effects on plants, animals and human being. One of the heavy metals which is xenobiotic and can be taken up by plants or animals from the soil is cadmium. The digestive system of centipedes is composed of three distinct regions: fore-, mid- and hindgut. The salivary glands of centipedes are the organs which belong to the anterior region of the digestive system and take part in the synthesis, accumulation, and secretion of many substances. The middle region having contact with the food masses is treated as one of the barriers which protect the organism against any stressors which originate from the external environment, e.g., toxic metals. As the material for our studies, we chose two organs of the digestive system in brown centipede, the organs which take part in homeostasis maintenance: the salivary glands and the midgut. The main purpose of the project was to investigate the relationship between the percentage of depolarized mitochondria, mitophagy and ATP level in cells of mentioned above organs. The animals were divided into experimental groups: K – the control group, the animals cultured in a laboratory conditions in a horticultural soil and fed with Acheta domesticus larvae; Cd1 – the animals cultured in a horticultural soil supplemented with 80 mg/kg (dry weight) of CdCl2, fed with A. domesticus larvae maintained in tap water, 12 days – short-term exposure; Cd2 – the animals cultured in a horticultural soil supplemented with 80 mg/kg (dry weight) of CdCl2, fed with A. domesticus larvae maintained in tap water, 45 days – long-term exposure. The studies were conducted using transmission electron microscopy (TEM), flow cytometry and confocal microscopy. Quantitative analysis revealed that regardless of the organ, a progressive increase in the percentage of cells with depolarized mitochondria was registered, but only in the salivary glands. These were statistically significant changes from the control. In both organs, there were no differences in the level of the analyzed parameter depending on the duration of exposure of individuals to cadmium. Changes in the ultrastructure of mitochondria have been observed. With the extension of the body's exposure time to metal, an increase in the ADP/ATP index was recorded. However, changes statistically significant to the control were demonstrated in the intestine and salivary glands. The size of this intestinal index and salivary glands in the Cd2 group was about thirty and twenty times higher, respectively than in control. Acknowledgment: The study has been financed by the National Science Centre, Poland, grant no 2017/25/B/NZ4/00420.

Keywords: cadmium, digestive system, ultrastructure, centipede

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Authors: Suzanne Phibbs, Christine Kenney, Robyn Richardson

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The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction called for the inclusion of indigenous people in the design and implementation of all hazard policies, plans, and standards. Ensuring that indigenous knowledge practices were included alongside scientific knowledge about disaster risk was also a key priority. Indigenous communities have specific knowledge about climate and natural hazard risk that has been developed over an extended period of time. However, research within indigenous communities can be fraught with issues such as power imbalances between the researcher and researched, the privileging of researcher agendas over community aspirations, as well as appropriation and/or inappropriate use of indigenous knowledge. This paper documents the process of working alongside a Māori community to develop a successful community-led research project. Research Design: This case study documents the development of a qualitative community-led participatory project. The community research project utilizes a kaupapa Māori research methodology which draws upon Māori research principles and concepts in order to generate knowledge about Māori resilience. The research addresses a significant gap in the disaster research literature relating to indigenous knowledge about collective hazard mitigation practices as well as resilience in rurally isolated indigenous communities. The research was designed in partnership with the Ngāti Raukawa Northern Marae Collective as well as Ngā Wairiki Ngāti Apa (a group of Māori sub-tribes who are located in the same region) and will be conducted by Māori researchers utilizing Māori values and cultural practices. The research project aims and objectives, for example, are based on themes that were identified as important to the Māori community research partners. The research methodology and methods were also negotiated with and approved by the community. Kaumātua (Māori elders) provided cultural and ethical guidance over the proposed research process and will continue to provide oversight over the conduct of the research. Purposive participant recruitment will be facilitated with support from local Māori community research partners, utilizing collective marae networks and snowballing methods. It is envisaged that Māori participants’ knowledge, experiences and views will be explored using face-to-face communication research methods such as workshops, focus groups and/or semi-structured interviews. Interviews or focus groups may be held in English and/or Te Reo (Māori language) to enhance knowledge capture. Analysis, knowledge dissemination, and co-authorship of publications will be negotiated with the Māori community research partners. Māori knowledge shared during the research will constitute participants’ intellectual property. New knowledge, theory, frameworks, and practices developed by the research will be co-owned by Māori, the researchers, and the host academic institution. Conclusion: An emphasis on indigenous knowledge systems within the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction risks the appropriation and misuse of indigenous experiences of disaster risk identification, mitigation, and response. The research protocol underpinning this project provides an exemplar of collaborative partnership in the development and implementation of an indigenous project that has relevance to policymakers, academic researchers, other regions with indigenous communities and/or local disaster risk reduction knowledge practices.

Keywords: community resilience, indigenous disaster risk reduction, Maori, research methods

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Authors: Anna M. Pretorius

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The emerging markets category for portfolio investment was introduced in 1986 in an attempt to promote capital market development in less developed countries. Investors traditionally diversified their portfolios by investing in different developed markets. However, high growth opportunities forced investors to consider emerging markets as well. Examples include the rapid growth of the “Asian Tigers” during the 1980s, growth in Latin America during the 1990s and the increased interest in emerging markets during the global financial crisis. As such, portfolio flows to emerging markets have increased substantially. In 2002 7% of all equity allocations from advanced economies went to emerging markets; this increased to 20% in 2012. The stronger links between advanced and emerging markets led to increased synchronization of asset price movements. This increased level of stock market integration for emerging markets is confirmed by various empirical studies. Against the background of increased interest in emerging market assets and the increasing level of integration of emerging markets, this paper focuses on the determinants of stock market integration of emerging market countries. Various studies have linked the level of financial market integration with specific economic variables. These variables include: economic growth, local inflation, trade openness, local investment, budget surplus/ deficit, market capitalization, domestic bank credit, domestic institutional and legal environment and world interest rates. The aim of this study is to empirically investigate to what extent trade-related determinants have an impact on stock market integration. The panel data sample include data of 16 emerging market countries: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Hungary, India, Malaysia, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Russian Federation, South Africa, Thailand and Turkey for the period 1998-2011. The integration variable for each emerging stock market is calculated as the explanatory power of a multi-factor model. These factors are extracted from a large panel of global stock market returns. Trade related explanatory variables include: exports as percentage of GDP, imports as percentage of GDP and total trade as percentage of GDP. Other macroeconomic indicators – such as market capitalisation, the size of the budget deficit and the effectiveness of the regulation of the securities exchange – are included in the regressions as control variables. An initial analysis on a sample of developed stock markets could not identify any significant determinants of stock market integration. Thus the macroeconomic variables identified in the literature are much more significant in explaining stock market integration of emerging markets than stock market integration of developed markets. The three trade variables are all statistically significant at a 5% level. The market capitalisation variable is also significant while the regulation variable is only marginally significant. The global financial crisis has highlighted the urgency to better understand the link between the financial and real sectors of the economy. This paper comes to the important finding that, apart from the level of market capitalisation (as financial indicator), trade (representative of the real economy) is a significant determinant of stock market integration of countries not yet classified as developed economies.

Keywords: emerging markets, financial market integration, panel data, trade

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Authors: Vaisnavy Govindasamy, Saba Ishrat

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Introduction: The Dexamethasone Intravitreal Implant 0.7 mg (OzurdexTM, Allergan®) is a biodegradable corticosteroid implant approved by the FDA for managing diabetic macular edema (DMO), macular edema following branch retinal vein occlusion (BRVO) or central retinal vein occlusion (CRVO), and posterior segment non-infectious uveitis. This implant can release dexamethasone over a six-month period, exhibiting peak effectiveness between 60 and 90 days post-administration. The intravitreal injection should be performed under sterile conditions. At James Cook University Hospital (JCUH), Ozurdex injections are currently administered in the Vitreo-Retinal (VR) theatre. This study aimed to evaluate the feasibility and potential advantages of establishing a dedicated clinic for Ozurdex administration separate from the VR theatre setting. Method: Retrospectively, data of all Ozurdex injections administered between October 2021 to October 2022 was collected from operating theatre registers at JCUH. Data pertaining to the indications for Ozurdex; waiting times from referral date to date of injection; duration of theatre time consumed; and post-injection complications were collected from electronic notes. The resources needed to establish a dedicated Ozurdex clinic were evaluated. Over a six-month period from October 2023 to March 2024, we gathered data on utilization of theatre 28. Results: A total of 135 Ozurdex injections were administered. Among the indications, uveitis represented 47.3% of cases, DMO with 23.6% and RVO with 22.9%. Remaining cases lacked sufficient data. Each Ozurdex injection procedure consumed 15 minutes in the VR theatre list. Complications arose in 5% of injections, totaling 7 cases. These included glaucoma, ocular hypertension, subconjunctival haemorrhage and implant migration. Waiting times averaged 6 weeks from date for referral to procedure date. We also found that, on an average theatre 28 was offered but remained unused for 4 days, totalling eight sessions in a month. Analysis: Establishing a sperate Ozurdex clinic would improve the quality of patient care in following ways: 1.Decrease injection waiting times (currently averaging 6 weeks), leading to better visual outcomes. 2.Free up approximately three hours of theatre time in Vitreo-Retina theatres each month, allowing for 3-4 additional surgeries. Reduce waiting times for critical retinal surgeries and enhance visual outcomes. 3.Provide additional training opportunities for trainees and retina fellows, improving their skills. 4.Optimize the use of empty theatre slots (theatre 28) currently experiencing underutilization of resources. Conclusion: These findings support the implementation of a separate clinic for administering Ozurdex injections at JCUH. It is evident that introducing a dedicated clinic will enhance operational efficiency, optimise resource utilsation, and improve overall quality of care for patients undergoing this treatment.

Keywords: opthalmology, ozurdex, efficiency, complication

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Authors: Ayesha Mushtaq

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Asthma is a pulmonary disease in which blockade of the airway takes place due to inflammation as a response to certain allergens. Breathing troubles, cough, and dyspnea are one of the few symptoms. Several studies have indicated a significant effect on asthma due to changes in dietary routines. Certain food items, such as oily foods and other materials, are known to cause an increase in the symptoms of asthma. Low dietary intake of fruits and vegetables may be important in relation to asthma prevalence. The objective of this study is to assess and compare the nutritional status of asthmatic and non-asthmatic patients. The significance of this study lies in the factor that it will help nutritionists to arrange a feasible dietary routine for asthmatic patients. This research was conducted at the Pulmonology Department of the Pakistan Institute of Medical Science Islamabad. About thirty hundred thirty-four million people are affected by asthma worldwide. Pakistan is on the verge of being an uplifted urban population and asthma cases are increasingly high these days. Several studies suggest an increase in the Asthmatic patient population due to improper diet. Other studies conducted at different institutions have conducted research on similar topics. These studies have suggested that there is a substantial alteration in the nutritional status of asthmatic and non-Asthmatic patients. This is a cross-sectional study aimed at assessing the nutritious standing of Asthmatic and non-asthmatic patients. This research took place at the Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences (PIMS), Islamabad, Pakistan. The research included asthmatic and non-asthmatic patients coming to the pulmonology department clinic at the Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences (PIMS). These patients were aged between 20-60 years. A questionnaire was developed for these patients to estimate their dietary plans in these patients. The methodology included four sections. The first section was the Socio-Demographic profile, which included age, gender, monthly income and occupation. The next section was anthropometric measurements which included the weight, height and body mass index (BMI) of the individual. The next section, section three, was about the biochemical attributes, such as for biochemical profiling, pulmonary function testing (PFT) was performed. In the next section, Dietary habits, which were assessed by using a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) through food habits and consumption pattern, was assessed. The next section life style data, in which the person's level of physical activity, sleep and smoking habits were assessed. The next section was statistical analysis. All the data obtained from the study were statistically analyzed and assessed. Most of the asthma Patients were females, with weight more than normal or even obese. Body Mass Index (BMI) was higher in asthma Patients than those in non-Asthmatic ones. When the nutritional Values were assessed, we came to know that these patients were low on certain nutrients and their diet included more junk and oily food than healthy vegetables and fruits. Beverages intake was also included in the same assessment. It is evident from this study that nutritional status has a contributory effect on asthma. So, patients on the verge of developing asthma or those who have developed asthma should focus on their diet, maintain good eating habits and take healthy diets, including fruits and vegetables rather than oily foods. Proper sleep may also contribute to the control of asthma.

Keywords: NUTRI, BMI, asthma, food

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Authors: Hongmei Wang, Ziyun Xiang, Ying liu, Li Yu, Dongsheng Yue

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Intro: The COVID-19 (Corona Virus Disease 2019) has greatly changed the global economic, political and financial ecology. The mutation of the coronavirus in the UK in December 2020 has brought new panic to the world. Deep learning was performed on Chest Computed tomography (CT) of COVID-19 and Influenza and describes their characteristics. The predominant features of COVID-19 pneumonia was ground-glass opacification, followed by consolidation. Lesion density: most lesions appear as ground-glass shadows, and some lesions coexist with solid lesions. Lesion distribution: the focus is mainly on the dorsal side of the periphery of the lung, with the lower lobe of the lungs as the focus, and it is often close to the pleura. Other features it has are grid-like shadows in ground glass lesions, thickening signs of diseased vessels, air bronchi signs and halo signs. The severe disease involves whole bilateral lungs, showing white lung signs, air bronchograms can be seen, and there can be a small amount of pleural effusion in the bilateral chest cavity. At the same time, this year's flu season could be near its peak after surging throughout the United States for months. Chest CT for Influenza infection is characterized by focal ground glass shadows in the lungs, with or without patchy consolidation, and bronchiole air bronchograms are visible in the concentration. There are patchy ground-glass shadows, consolidation, air bronchus signs, mosaic lung perfusion, etc. The lesions are mostly fused, which is prominent near the hilar and two lungs. Grid-like shadows and small patchy ground-glass shadows are visible. Deep neural networks have great potential in image analysis and diagnosis that traditional machine learning algorithms do not. Method: Aiming at the two major infectious diseases COVID-19 and influenza, which are currently circulating in the world, the chest CT of patients with two infectious diseases is classified and diagnosed using deep learning algorithms. The residual network is proposed to solve the problem of network degradation when there are too many hidden layers in a deep neural network (DNN). The proposed deep residual system (ResNet) is a milestone in the history of the Convolutional neural network (CNN) images, which solves the problem of difficult training of deep CNN models. Many visual tasks can get excellent results through fine-tuning ResNet. The pre-trained convolutional neural network ResNet is introduced as a feature extractor, eliminating the need to design complex models and time-consuming training. Fastai is based on Pytorch, packaging best practices for in-depth learning strategies, and finding the best way to handle diagnoses issues. Based on the one-cycle approach of the Fastai algorithm, the classification diagnosis of lung CT for two infectious diseases is realized, and a higher recognition rate is obtained. Results: A deep learning model was developed to efficiently identify the differences between COVID-19 and influenza using chest CT.

Keywords: COVID-19, Fastai, influenza, transfer network

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Authors: Davit Pipoyan, Meline Beglaryan, Nicolò Merendino

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Mining industry is one of the priority sectors of Armenian economy. Along with the solution of some socio-economic development, it brings about numerous environmental problems, especially toxic element pollution, which largely influences the safety of agricultural products. In addition, accumulation of toxic elements in agricultural products, mainly in edible parts of plants represents a direct pathway for their penetration into the human food chain. In Armenia, the share of plant origin food in overall diet is significantly high, so estimation of dietary intakes of toxic trace elements via consumption of selected fruits and vegetables are of great importance for observing the underlying health risks. Therefore, the present study was aimed to assess dietary exposure of potentially toxic trace elements through the intake of locally grown fruits and vegetables in Akhtala community (Armenia), where not only mining industry is developed, but also cultivation of fruits and vegetables. Moreover, this investigation represents one of the very first attempts to estimate human dietary exposure of potentially toxic trace elements in the study area. Samples of some commonly grown fruits and vegetables (fig, cornel, raspberry, grape, apple, plum, maize, bean, potato, cucumber, onion, greens) were randomly collected from several home gardens located near mining areas in Akhtala community. The concentration of Cu, Mo, Ni, Cr, Pb, Zn, Hg, As and Cd in samples were determined by using an atomic absorption spectrophotometer (AAS). Precision and accuracy of analyses were guaranteed by repeated analysis of samples against NIST Standard Reference Materials. For a diet study, individual-based approach was used, so the consumption of selected fruits and vegetables was investigated through food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Combining concentration data with contamination data, the estimated daily intakes (EDI) and cumulative daily intakes were assessed and compared with health-based guidance values (HBGVs). According to the determined concentrations of the studied trace elements in fruits and vegetables, it can be stressed that some trace elements (Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn) among the majority of samples exceeded maximum allowable limits set by international organizations. Meanwhile, others (Cr, Hg, As, Cd, Mo) either did not exceed these limits or still do not have established allowable limits. The obtained results indicated that only for Cu the EDI values exceeded dietary reference intake (0.01 mg/kg/Bw/day) for some investigated fruits and vegetables in decreasing order of potato > grape > bean > raspberry > fig > greens. In contrast to this, for combined consumption of selected fruits and vegetables estimated cumulative daily intakes exceeded reference doses in the following sequence: Zn > Cu > Ni > Mo > Pb. It may be concluded that habitual and combined consumption of the above mentioned fruits and vegetables can pose a health risk to the local population. Hence, further detailed studies are needed for the overall assessment of potential health implications taking into consideration adverse health effects posed by more than one toxic trace element.

Keywords: daily intake, dietary exposure, fruits, trace elements, vegetables

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Authors: Muhammad Shuaibu Birniwa

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Automobile Independent Workshop Service Technicians (popularly called roadside mechanics) are technical personals that repairs most of the automobile vehicles in Nigeria. Majority of these mechanics acquired their skills through apprenticeship training. Modern vehicle imported into the country posed greater challenges to the present automobile technicians particularly in the area of carrying out maintenance repairs of these latest automobile vehicles (autotronics vehicle) due to their inability to possessed autotronic skills competency. To source for solution to the above mentioned problems, therefore a research is carried out in North – Western region of Nigeria to produce a suitable maintenance training modules that can be used to train the technicians for them to upgrade/acquire the needed competencies for successful maintenance repair of the autotronic vehicles that were running everyday on the nation’s roads. A cluster sampling technique is used to obtain a sample from the population. The population of the study is all autotronic inclined lecturers, instructors and independent workshop service technicians that are within North – Western region of Nigeria. There are seven states (Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto and Zamfara) in the study area, these serves as clusters in the population. Five (5) states were randomly selected to serve as the sample size. The five states are Jigawa, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi and Zamfara, the entire population of the five states which serves as clusters is (183), lecturers (44), instructors (49) and autotronic independent workshop service technicians (90), all of them were used in the study because of their manageable size. 183 copies of autotronic maintenance training module questionnaires (AMTMQ) with 174 and 149 question items respectively were administered and collected by the researcher with the help of an assistants, they are administered to 44 Polytechnic lecturers in the department of mechanical engineering, 49 instructors in skills acquisition centres/polytechnics and 90 master craftsmen of an independent workshops that are autotronic inclined. Data collected for answering research questions 1, 3, 4 and 5 were analysed using SPSS software version 22, Grand Mean and standard deviation were used to answer the research questions. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) was used to test null hypotheses one (1) to three (3) and t-test statistical tool is used to analyzed hypotheses four (4) and five (5) all at 0.05 level of significance. The research conducted revealed that; all the objectives, contents/tasks, facilities, delivery systems and evaluation techniques contained in the questionnaire were required for the development of the autotronic maintenance training modules for independent workshop service technicians in the north – western zone of Nigeria. The skills upgrade training conducted by federal government in collaboration with SURE-P, NAC and SMEDEN was not successful because the educational status of the target population was not considered in drafting the needed training modules. The mode of training used does not also take cognizance of the theoretical aspect of the trainees, especially basic science which rendered the programme ineffective and insufficient for the tasks on ground.

Keywords: autotronics, roadside, mechanics, technicians, independent

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Authors: Ewa Szarek-Gwiazda, Agata Z. Wojtal, Agnieszka Pociecha, Andrzej Kownacki, Dariusz Ciszewski

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Mining of metal ores is one of the largest sources of heavy metals, which deteriorate aquatic systems. The response of organisms to environmental changes can be well recorded in sediments of the affected water bodies and may be reconstructed based on analyses of organisms' remains. The present study aimed at the response of diatoms (Bacillariophyta), Cladocera, and Chironomidae communities to the impact of Zn-Pb mine water discharge recorded in sediment cores of small subsidence ponds on the Chechło River floodplain (Silesia–Krakow Region, southern Poland). We hypothesize various responses of the above groups to high metal concentrations (Cd, Pb, Zn, and Cu). The investigated ponds were formed either during the peak of the ore exploitation (DOWN) or after mining cessation (UP). Currently, the concentrations of dissolved metals (in µg g⁻¹) in water reached up to 0.53 for Cd, 7.3 for Pb, and up to 47.1 for Zn. All the sediment cores from subsidence ponds were heavily polluted with Cd 6.7–612 μg g⁻¹, Pb 0.1–10.2 mg g⁻¹, and Zn 0.5–23.1 mg g⁻¹. Core sediments varied also in respect to pH 5.8-7.1 and concentrations of organic matter (5.7-39.8%). The impact of high metal concentrations was expressed by the occurrence of metal-tolerant taxa like diatoms – Nitzschia amphibia, Sellaphora nigri, and Surirella brebisonii var. kuetzingii; Cladocera – Chydorus sphaericus (dominated in cores from all ponds), and Chironomidae – Chironomus and Cricotopus especially in the DOWN ponds. Statistical analysis exhibited a negative impact of metals on some taxa of diatoms and Cladocera but only on Polypedilum sp. from Chironomidae. The abundance of such diatoms like Gomphonema utae, Staurosirella pinnata, Eunotia bilunaris, and Cladocera like Alona, Chydorus, Graptoleberis, and Pleuroxus decreased with increasing Pb concentration. However, the occurrence or dominance of more sensitive species of diatoms and Cladocera indicates their adaptation to higher metal loads, which was facilitated by neutral pH and slightly alkaline waters. Diatom assemblages were generally resistant to Zn, Pb, Cu, and Cd pollution, as indicated by their large similarity to populations from non-contaminated waters. Comparison with reference objects clearly indicates the dominance of Achnanthidium minutissimum, Staurosira venter, and Fragilaria gracilis in very diverse assemblages of unpolluted waters. The distribution of the Cladocera and Chironomidae taxa depended on the habitat type. The DOWN ponds with stagnant water and overgrown with macrophytes were more suitable for cladocerans (14 taxa, higher diversity) than the UP ponds with river water flowing through their centre and with a small share of macrophytes (8 taxa). The Chironominae, mainly Chironomus and Microspectra, were abundant in cores from the UP ponds with muddy bottoms. Inversely, the density of Orthocladiinae, especially genus Cricotopus, was related to the organic matter content and dominated in cores from the DOWN ponds. The presence of diatoms like Nitzschia amphibia, Sellaphora nigri, and Surirella brebisonii var. kuetzingii, cladocerans: Bosmina longirostris, Chydorus sphaericus, Alona affinis, and A. rectangularis as well as Chironomidae Chironomus sp. (UP ponds) and Psecrotanypus varius (DOWN ponds) indicate the influence of the water trophy on their distribution.

Keywords: Chironomidae, Cladocera, diatoms, metals, Zn-Pb mine, sediment cores, subsidence ponds

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Authors: I. N. Nwafia, U. C. Ozumba, M. E. Ohanu, S. O. Ebede

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Antibiotic resistance is increasing globally and has become a major health challenge. Extended-spectrum beta-lactamase is clinically important because the ESBL gene are mostly plasmid encoded and these plasmids frequently carry genes encoding resistance to other classes of antimicrobials thereby limiting antibiotic options in the treatment of infections caused by these organisms. The specific objectives of this study were to determine the prevalence of ESBLs production in Escherichia coli, to determine the antibiotic susceptibility pattern of ESBLs producing Escherichia coli, to detect TEM, SHV and CTX-M genes and the risk factors to acquisition of ESBL producing Escherichia coli. The protocol of the study was approved by Health Research and Ethics committee of the University of Nigeria Teaching Hospital (UNTH), Enugu. It was a descriptive cross-sectional study that involved all hospitalized patients in UNTH from whose specimens Escherichia coli was isolated during the period of the study. The samples analysed were urine, wound swabs, blood and cerebrospinal fluid. These samples were cultured in 5% sheep Blood agar and MacConkey agar (Oxoid Laboratories, Cambridge UK) and incubated at 35-370C for 24 hours. Escherichia coli was identified with standard biochemical tests and confirmed using API 20E auxanogram (bioMerieux, Marcy 1'Etoile, France). The antibiotic susceptibility testing was done by disc diffusion method and interpreted according to the Clinical and Laboratory Standard Institute guideline. ESBL production was confirmed using ESBL Epsilometer test strips (Liofilchem srl, Italy). The ESBL bla genes were detected with polymerase chain reaction, after extraction of DNA with plasmid mini-prep kit (Jena Bioscience, Jena, Germany). Data analysis was with appropriate descriptive and inferential statistics. One hundred and six isolates (53.00%) out of the 200 were from urine, followed by isolates from different swabs specimens 53(26.50%) and the least number of the isolates 4(2.00) were from blood (P value = 0.096). Seventy (35.00%) out of the 200 isolates, were confirmed positive for ESBL production. Forty-two (60.00%) of the isolates were from female patients while 28(40.00%) were from male patients (P value = 0.13). Sixty-eight (97.14%) of the isolates were susceptible to imipenem while all of the isolates were resistant to ampicillin, chloramphenicol and tetracycline. From the 70 positive isolates the ESBL genes detected with polymerase chain reaction were blaCTX-M (n=26; 37.14%), blaTEM (n=7; 10.00%), blaSHV (n=2; 2.86%), blaCTX-M/TEM (n=7; 10.0%), blaCTX-M/SHV (n=14; 20.0%) and blaCTX-M/TEM/SHV (n=10; 14.29%). There was no gene detected in 4(5.71%) of the isolates. The most associated risk factors to infections caused by ESBL producing Escherichia coli was previous antibiotics use for the past 3 months followed by admission in the intensive care unit, recent surgery, and urinary catheterization. In conclusion, ESBLs was detected in 4 of every 10 Escherichia coli with the predominant gene detected being CTX-M. This knowledge will enable appropriate measures towards improvement of patient health care, antibiotic stewardship, research and infection control in the hospital.

Keywords: antimicrobial, Escherichia coli, extended spectrum beta lactamase, resistance

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Authors: Larysa Novak-Kalyayeva, Aleksander Kuczabski, Orystlava Sydorchuk, Nataliia Fersman, Tatyana Zemlinskaia

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The article presents the results of the creative analysis and comparison of trends in the development of the theory of public administration during the period from the second half of the 20^th to the beginning of the 21^st century. The process of conceptualization of the priorities of public administration in the dynamics of reforming was held under the influence of such factors as globalization, integration, information and technological changes and human rights is examined. The priorities of the social state in the concepts of the second half of the 20^th century are studied. Peculiar approaches to determining the priorities of public administration in the countries of "Soviet dictatorship" in Central and Eastern Europe in the same period are outlined. Particular attention is paid to the priorities of public administration regarding the interaction between public power and society and the development of conceptual foundations for the modern managerial process. There is a thought that the dynamics of the formation of concepts of the European governance is characterized by the sequence of priorities: from socio-economic and moral-ethical to organizational-procedural and non-hierarchical ones. The priorities of the "welfare state" were focused on the decent level of material wellbeing of population. At the same time, the conception of "minimal state" emphasized priorities of human responsibility for their own fate under the conditions of minimal state protection. Later on, the emphasis was placed on horizontal ties and redistribution of powers and competences of "effective state" with its developed procedures and limits of responsibility at all levels of government and in close cooperation with the civil society. The priorities of the contemporary period are concentrated on human rights in the concepts of "good governance" and all the following ones, which recognize the absolute priority of public administration with compliance, provision and protection of human rights. There is a proved point of view that civilizational changes taking place under the influence of information and technological imperatives also stipulate changes in priorities, redistribution of emphases and update principles of managerial concepts on the basis of publicity, transparency, departure from traditional forms of hierarchy and control in favor of interactivity and inter-sectoral interaction, decentralization and humanization of managerial processes. The necessity to permanently carry out the reorganization, by establishing the interaction between different participants of public power and social relations, to establish a balance between political forces and social interests on the basis of mutual trust and mutual understanding determines changes of social, political, economic and humanitarian paradigms of public administration and their theoretical comprehension. The further studies of theoretical foundations of modern public administration in interdisciplinary discourse in the context of ambiguous consequences of the globalizational and integrational processes of modern European state-building would be advisable. This is especially true during the period of political transformations and economic crises which are the characteristic of the contemporary Europe, especially for democratic transition countries.

Keywords: concepts of public administration, democratic transition countries, human rights, the priorities of public administration, theory of public administration

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Authors: Hwang Ho Kim, Do Gyun Kim, Jin Young Choi, Sang Chul Park

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Since tire production process is very complicated, company-wide management of it is very difficult, necessitating considerable amounts of capital and labors. Thus, productivity should be enhanced and maintained competitive by developing and applying effective production plans. Among major processes for tire manufacturing, consisting of mixing component preparation, building and curing, the mixing process is an essential and important step because the main component of tire, called compound, is formed at this step. Compound as a rubber synthesis with various characteristics plays its own role required for a tire as a finished product. Meanwhile, scheduling tire mixing process is similar to flexible job shop scheduling problem (FJSSP) because various kinds of compounds have their unique orders of operations, and a set of alternative machines can be used to process each operation. In addition, setup time required for different operations may differ due to alteration of additives. In other words, each operation of mixing processes requires different setup time depending on the previous one, and this kind of feature, called sequence dependent setup time (SDST), is a very important issue in traditional scheduling problems such as flexible job shop scheduling problems. However, despite of its importance, there exist few research works dealing with the tire mixing process. Thus, in this paper, we consider the scheduling problem for tire mixing process and suggest an efficient particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm to minimize the makespan for completing all the required jobs belonging to the process. Specifically, we design a particle encoding scheme for the considered scheduling problem, including a processing sequence for compounds and machine allocation information for each job operation, and a method for generating a tire mixing schedule from a given particle. At each iteration, the coordination and velocity of particles are updated, and the current solution is compared with new solution. This procedure is repeated until a stopping condition is satisfied. The performance of the proposed algorithm is validated through a numerical experiment by using some small-sized problem instances expressing the tire mixing process. Furthermore, we compare the solution of the proposed algorithm with it obtained by solving a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model developed in previous research work. As for performance measure, we define an error rate which can evaluate the difference between two solutions. As a result, we show that PSO algorithm proposed in this paper outperforms MILP model with respect to the effectiveness and efficiency. As the direction for future work, we plan to consider scheduling problems in other processes such as building, curing. We can also extend our current work by considering other performance measures such as weighted makespan or processing times affected by aging or learning effects.

Keywords: compound, error rate, flexible job shop scheduling problem, makespan, particle encoding scheme, particle swarm optimization, sequence dependent setup time, tire mixing process

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Authors: Ruth Shapira

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Introduction: The rapid urbanization of the last century confronts planners, regulatory bodies, developers and most of all – the public with seemingly unsolved conflicts regarding values, capital, and wellbeing of the built and un-built urban space. This is reflected in the quality of the urban form and life which has known no significant progress in the last 2-3 decades despite the on-growing urban population. It is the objective of this paper to analyze some of these fundamental issues through the case study of a relatively small town in the center of Israel (Kiryat-Ono, 100,000 inhabitants), unfold the deep structure of qualities versus disruptors, present some cure that we have developed to bridge over and humbly suggest a practice that may be generic for similar cases. Basic Methodologies: The OBJECT, the town of Kiryat Ono, shall be experimented upon in a series of four action processes: De-composition, Re-composition, the Centering process and, finally, Controlled Structural Disintegration. Each stage will be based on facts, analysis of previous multidisciplinary interventions on various layers – and the inevitable reaction of the OBJECT, leading to the conclusion based on innovative theoretical and practical methods that we have developed and that we believe are proper for the open ended network, setting the rules for the contemporary urban society to cluster by. The Study: Kiryat Ono, was founded 70 years ago as an agricultural settlement and rapidly turned into an urban entity. In spite the massive intensification, the original DNA of the old small town was still deeply embedded, mostly in the quality of the public space and in the sense of clustered communities. In the past 20 years, the recent demand for housing has been addressed to on the national level with recent master plans and urban regeneration policies mostly encouraging individual economic initiatives. Unfortunately, due to the obsolete existing planning platform the present urban renewal is characterized by pressure of developers, a dramatic change in building scale and widespread disintegration of the existing urban and social tissue. Our office was commissioned to conceptualize two master plans for the two contradictory processes of Kiryat Ono’s future: intensification and conservation. Following a comprehensive investigation into the deep structures and qualities of the existing town, we developed a new vocabulary of conservation terms thus redefying the sense of PLACE. The main challenge was to create master plans that should offer a regulatory basis to the accelerated and sporadic development providing for the public good and preserving the characteristics of the PLACE consisting of a tool box of design guidelines that will have the ability to reorganize space along the time axis in a coherent way. In Conclusion: The system of rules that we have developed can generate endless possible patterns making sure that at each implementation fragment an event is created, and a better place is revealed. It takes time and perseverance but it seems to be the way to provide a healthy framework for the accelerated urbanization of our chaotic present.

Keywords: housing, architecture, urban qualities, urban regeneration, conservation, intensification

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Authors: Erimias Firre

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This study is situated within the religio-cultural milieu of Coptic Orthodox Christians of the Tigrinya ethnic group in Eritrea. With this ethnic group being conservative and traditionally bound, extended family structures dissected along various clans and expansive community networks are the distinguishing mark of its members. Notably, Coptic Tigrinya constitutes the largest percentage of all Christian denominations in Eritrea. As religious, cultural beliefs, rituals and teachings permeate in all aspects of social life, a distinct worldview and traditionalized health and illness conceptualization are common. Accordingly, this study argues that religio-culturally bound illness ideologies immensely determine the perception, help seeking behavior and healing preference of Coptic Tigrinya in Eritrea. The study bears significance in the sense that it bridges an important knowledge gap, given that it is ethno-linguistically (within the Tigrinya ethnic group), spatially (central region of Eritrea) and religiously (Coptic Christianity) specific. The conceptual framework guiding this research centered on the social determinants of mental health, and explores through the lens of critical theory how existing systems generate social vulnerability and structural inequality, providing a platform to reveal how the psychosocial model has the capacity to emancipate and empower those with mental disorders to live productive and meaningful lives. A case study approach was employed to explore the interrelationship between religio-cultural beliefs and practices and perception of common mental disorders of depression, anxiety, bipolar affective, schizophrenia and post-traumatic stress disorders and the impact of these perceptions on people with those mental disorders. Purposive sampling was used to recruit 41 participants representing seven diverse cohorts; people with common mental disorders, family caregivers, general community members, ex-fighters , priests, staff at St. Mary’s and Biet-Mekae Community Health Center; resulting in rich data for thematic analysis. Findings highlighted current religio-cultural perceptions, causes and treatment of mental disorders among Coptic Tigrinya result in widespread labelling, stigma and discrimination, both of those with mental disorders and their families. Traditional healing sources are almost exclusively tried, sometimes for many years, before families and sufferers seek formal medical assessment and treatment, resulting difficult to treat illness chronicity. Service gaps in the formal medical system result in the inability to meet the principles enshrined in the WHO Mental Health Action Plan 2013-2020 to which the Eritrean Government is a signatory. However, the study found that across all participant cohorts, there was a desire for change that will create a culture whereby those with mental disorders will have restored hope, connectedness, healing and self-determination.

Keywords: Coptic Tigrinya, mental disorders, psychosocial model social integration and recovery, traditional healing

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Authors: Brenda Ravenscroft, Ulemu Luhanga, Bev King

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A comprehensive evaluation of online learning needs to include a blend of educational design, technology use, and online instructional practices that integrate technology appropriately for developing and delivering quality online courses. Research shows that classroom-based evaluation tools do not adequately capture the dynamic relationships between content, pedagogy, and technology in online courses. Furthermore, studies suggest that using classroom evaluations for online courses yields lower than normal scores for instructors, and may affect faculty negatively in terms of administrative decisions. In 2014, the Faculty of Arts and Science at Queen’s University responded to this evidence by seeking an alternative to the university-mandated evaluation tool, which is designed for classroom learning. The Faculty is deeply engaged in e-learning, offering large variety of online courses and programs in the sciences, social sciences, humanities and arts. This paper describes the process by which a new student survey instrument for online courses was developed and piloted, the methods used to analyze the data, and the ways in which the instrument was subsequently adapted based on the results. It concludes with a critical reflection on the challenges of evaluating e-learning. The Student Evaluation of Online Teaching Effectiveness (SEOTE), developed by Arthur W. Bangert in 2004 to assess constructivist-compatible online teaching practices, provided the starting point. Modifications were made in order to allow the instrument to serve the two functions required by the university: student survey results provide the instructor with feedback to enhance their teaching, and also provide the institution with evidence of teaching quality in personnel processes. Changes were therefore made to the SEOTE to distinguish more clearly between evaluation of the instructor’s teaching and evaluation of the course design, since, in the online environment, the instructor is not necessarily the course designer. After the first pilot phase, involving 35 courses, the results were analyzed using Stobart's validity framework as a guide. This process included statistical analyses of the data to test for reliability and validity, student and instructor focus groups to ascertain the tool’s usefulness in terms of the feedback it provided, and an assessment of the utility of the results by the Faculty’s e-learning unit responsible for supporting online course design. A set of recommendations led to further modifications to the survey instrument prior to a second pilot phase involving 19 courses. Following the second pilot, statistical analyses were repeated, and more focus groups were used, this time involving deans and other decision makers to determine the usefulness of the survey results in personnel processes. As a result of this inclusive process and robust analysis, the modified SEOTE instrument is currently being considered for adoption as the standard evaluation tool for all online courses at the university. Audience members at this presentation will be stimulated to consider factors that differentiate effective evaluation of online courses from classroom-based teaching. They will gain insight into strategies for introducing a new evaluation tool in a unionized institutional environment, and methodologies for evaluating the tool itself.

Keywords: evaluation, online courses, student survey, teaching effectiveness

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Authors: Teresa Carlone, Matteo Mannocchi

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In the last decade, a growing number of International Organizations are pushing toward green solutions for adaptation to climate change. This is particularly true in the field of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and land planning, where Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) had been sponsored through funding programs and planning tools. Stakeholder engagement and co-creation of NBS is growing as a practice and research field in environmental projects, fostering the consolidation of a multidisciplinary socio-ecological approach in addressing hydro-meteorological risk. Even thou research and financial interests are constantly spread, the NBS mainstreaming process is still at an early stage as innovative concepts and practices make it difficult to be fully accepted and adopted by a multitude of different actors to produce wide scale societal change. The monitoring and impact evaluation of stakeholders’ participation in these processes represent a crucial aspect and should be seen as a continuous and integral element of the co-creation approach. However, setting up a fit for purpose-monitoring strategy for different contexts is not an easy task, and multiple challenges emerge. In this scenario, the Horizon 2020 OPERANDUM project, designed to address the major hydro-meteorological risks that negatively affect European rural and natural territories through the co-design, co-deployment, and assessment of Nature-based Solution, represents a valid case study to test a monitoring strategy from which set a broader, general and scalable monitoring framework. Applying a participative monitoring methodology, based on selected indicators list that combines quantitative and qualitative data developed within the activity of the project, the paper proposes an experimental in-depth analysis of the stakeholder engagement impact in the co-creation process of NBS. The main focus will be to spot and analyze which factors increase knowledge, social acceptance, and mainstreaming of NBS, promoting also a base-experience guideline to could be integrated with the stakeholder engagement strategy in current and future similar strongly collaborative approach-based environmental projects, such as OPERANDUM. Measurement will be carried out through survey submitted at a different timescale to the same sample (stakeholder: policy makers, business, researchers, interest groups). Changes will be recorded and analyzed through focus groups in order to highlight causal explanation and to assess the proposed list of indicators to steer the conduction of similar activities in other projects and/or contexts. The idea of the paper is to contribute to the construction of a more structured and shared corpus of indicators that can support the evaluation of the activities of involvement and participation of various levels of stakeholders in the co-production, planning, and implementation of NBS to address climate change challenges.

Keywords: co-creation and collaborative planning, monitoring, nature-based solution, participation & inclusion, stakeholder engagement

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Authors: Fang Bin Guo, Emma Roberts, Haibin Du, Yonggang Wang, Yu Chen, Xiuli Ge

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This paper explores the findings so far from a major externally-funded project which operates internationally in China, Germany and the UK. The research team is working in the context of the redevelopment of post-industrial sites in China and how these might be platforms for creative enterprises and thereby, the economy and welfare to flourish. Results from the project are anticipated to inform urban design policies in China and possibly farther afield. The research has utilised ethnographic studies and participatory design methods to investigate alternative strategies for sustainable urban renewal of China’s post-industrial areas. Additionally, it has undertaken comparative studies of successful examples of European and Chinese urban regeneration cases. The international cross-disciplinary team has been seeking different opportunities for developing relevant creative industries whilst retaining cultural and industrial heritage. This paper will explore the research conducted so far by the team and offer initial findings. Findings point out the development challenges of cities respecting the protection of local culture/heritages, history of the industries and transformation of the local economies. The preliminary results and pilot analysis of the current research have demonstrated that local government policyholders, business investors/developers and creative industry practitioners are the three major stakeholders that will impact city revitalisations. These groups are expected to work together with asynchronous vision in order for redevelopments to be successful. Meanwhile, local geography, history, culture, politics, economy and ethnography have been identified as important factors that impact on project design and development during urban transformations. Data is being processed from the team’s research conducted across the focal Western and Chinese cities. This has provided theoretical guidance and practical support to the development of significant experimental projects. Many were re-examined with a more international perspective, and adjustments have been based on the conclusions of the research. The observations and research are already generating design solutions in terms of ascertaining essential site components, layouts, visual design and practical facilities for regenerated sites. Two significant projects undertaken by this project team have been nominated by the central Chinese government as the most successful exemplars. They have been listed as outstanding national industry heritage projects; in particular, one of them was nominated by ArchDaily as Building of the Year 2019, and so this project outcome has made a substantial contribution to research and innovation. In summary, this paper will outline the funded project, discuss the work conducted so far, and pinpoint the initial discoveries. It will detail the future steps and indicate how these will impact on national and local governments in China, designers, local citizens and building users.

Keywords: cultural & industrial heritages, ethnographic research, participatory design, regeneration of post-industrial sites, sustainable

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Authors: Parveen Kundu, Zile Singh, Kunika Kundu, Swaran Kaur

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Context: Tuberculous osteomyelitis is a relatively uncommon condition that can present with various clinical and radiological features, often mimicking bone tumors or tumor-like lesions. In endemic countries like India, tuberculosis should be considered as a potential differential diagnosis for lytic bone lesions. This study aimed to highlight the different presentations of tuberculosis that can mimic tumors or tumor-like lesions in bone and emphasize the successful outcome of antitubercular therapy (ATT) in treating these cases. Research Aim: The main objective of this research was to explore the varied presentations of tuberculosis that mimic bone tumors or tumor-like lesions both clinically and radiologically, focusing on different bones. The study aimed to raise awareness among clinicians about this possibility and highlight the importance of histopathological confirmation before initiating treatment for lytic bone lesions. Methodology: This study utilized a retrospective review of 22 patients with suspected lytic bone lesions, who were subsequently diagnosed with tuberculous osteomyelitis through histopathological examination. The cases were collected over a period of ten years. Eleven cases required curettage for extensive lesions with sequestrations, while all 22 patients received 12 months of antitubercular therapy. Findings: The study included 14 male and 8 female patients, ranging in age from 3 to 61 years, with an average age of 22.05. The clinical and radiological presentations varied, with examples including bone cysts in the metaphyseal area of long bones, lesions resembling chondroblastomas, giant cell tumors, and osteoid osteoma, as well as multifocal lytic lesions resembling metastasis or multiple myeloma. One patient had lesions in both the clavicle and hand. Lesions mimicking chondromas were also observed in the phalanges of the hand and foot metatarsal. All patients showed resolution of the lesions and no residual disability following ATT. Theoretical Importance: This study highlights the importance of considering tuberculosis as a potential differential diagnosis for lytic bone lesions, particularly in endemic regions. It emphasizes the need for histopathological confirmation to accurately diagnose tuberculous osteomyelitis, as this is considered the gold standard. Data Collection and Analysis Procedures: Data for this study were collected retrospectively from medical records and radiological images of the 22 patients. The cases were analyzed based on clinical presentation, radiological findings, and histopathological confirmation. The outcomes of antitubercular therapy were also assessed. The data were summarized and presented descriptively. Question Addressed: This study aimed to address the question of how tuberculosis can mimic different bone tumors and tumor-like lesions clinically and radiologically. It also aimed to assess the successful outcome of antitubercular therapy in treating these cases. Conclusion: Tuberculous osteomyelitis can present with varied clinical and radiological features, often mimicking bone tumors or tumor-like lesions. Clinicians should consider tuberculosis as a potential diagnosis for lytic bone lesions, especially in endemic areas. Histopathological confirmation is essential for accurate diagnosis. Antitubercular therapy is an effective treatment for tuberculous osteomyelitis, leading to the resolution of the lesions with no residual disability.

Keywords: tuberculosis, tumor, curettage, bone

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Authors: Mariyah Poonawala, Selvan Ravindran, Anuradha Vaidya

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Despite much progress in understanding the regulatory factors and cytokines that support the maturation of the various cell lineages of the hematopoietic system, factors that govern the self-renewal and proliferation of hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) is still a grey area of research. Hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) has evolved over the years and gained tremendous importance in the treatment of both malignant and non-malignant diseases. However, factors such as graft rejection and multiple organ failure have challenged HSCT from time to time, underscoring the urgent need for development of milder processes for successful hematopoietic transplantation. An emerging concept in the field of stem cell biology states that the interactions between the bone-marrow micro-environment and the hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells is essential for regulation, maintenance, commitment and proliferation of stem cells. Understanding the role of mesenchymal stromal cells in modulating the functionality of HSCs is, therefore, an important area of research. Trans-resveratrol has been extensively studied for its various properties to combat and prevent cancer, diabetes and cardiovascular diseases etc. The aim of the present study was to understand the effect of trans-resveratrol on HSCs using single and co-culture systems. We have used KG1a cells since it is a well accepted hematopoietic stem cell model system. Our preliminary experiments showed that low concentrations of trans-resveratrol stimulated the HSCs to undergo proliferation whereas high concentrations of trans-resveratrol did not stimulate the cells to proliferate. We used a murine fibroblast cell line, M210B4, as a stromal feeder layer. On culturing the KG1a cells with M210B4 cells, we observed that the stimulatory as well as inhibitory effects of trans-resveratrol at low and high concentrations respectively, were enhanced. Our further experiments showed that low concentration of trans-resveratrol reduced the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and nitric oxide (NO) whereas high concentrations increased the oxidative stress in KG1a cells. We speculated that perhaps the oxidative stress was imposing inhibitory effects at high concentration and the same was confirmed by performing an apoptotic assay. Furthermore, cell cycle analysis and growth kinetic experiments provided evidence that low concentration of trans-resveratrol reduced the doubling time of the cells. Our hypothesis is that perhaps at low concentration of trans-resveratrol the cells get pushed into the G0/G1 phase and re-enter the cell cycle resulting in their proliferation, whereas at high concentration the cells are perhaps arrested at G2/M phase or at cytokinesis and therefore undergo apoptosis. Liquid Chromatography-Quantitative-Time of Flight–Mass Spectroscopy (LC-Q-TOF MS) analyses indicated the presence of trans-resveratrol and its metabolite(s) in the supernatant of the co-cultured cells incubated with high concentration of trans-resveratrol. We conjecture that perhaps the metabolites of trans-resveratrol are responsible for the apoptosis observed at the high concentration. Our findings may shed light on the unsolved problems in the in vitro expansion of stem cells and may have implications in the ex vivo manipulation of HSCs for therapeutic purposes.

Keywords: co-culture system, hematopoietic micro-environment, KG1a cell line, M210B4 cell line, trans-resveratrol

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Authors: Kate Allman, Heather Maranges, Elise Dykhuis

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Moral Growth Mindset (MGM) is the belief that one has the capacity to become a more moral person, as opposed to a fixed conception of one’s moral ability and capacity (Han et al., 2018). Building from Dweck’s work in incremental implicit theories of intelligence (2008), Moral Growth Mindset (Han et al., 2020) extends growth mindsets into the moral dimension. The concept of MGM has the potential to help researchers understand how both mindsets and interventions can impact character development, and it has even been shown to have connections to voluntary service engagement (Han et al., 2018). Understanding the contexts in which MGM might be cultivated could help to promote the further cultivation of character, in addition to prosocial behaviors like service engagement, which may, in turn, promote larger scale engagement in social justice-oriented thoughts, feelings, and behaviors. In particular, college may be a place to intentionally cultivate a growth mindset toward moral capacities, given the unique developmental and maturational components of the college experience, including contextual opportunity (Lapsley & Narvaez, 2006) and independence requiring the constant consideration, revision, and internalization of personal values (Lapsley & Woodbury, 2016). In a semester-long, quasi-experimental study, we examined the impact of a pedagogical approach designed to cultivate college student character development on participants’ MGM. With an intervention (n=69) and a control group (n=97; Pre-course: 27% Men; 66% Women; 68% White; 18% Asian; 2% Black; <1% Hispanic/Latino), we investigated whether college courses that intentionally incorporate character education pedagogy (Lamb, Brant, Brooks, 2021) affect a variety of psychosocial variables associated with moral thoughts, feelings, identity, and behavior (e.g. moral growth mindset, honesty, compassion, etc.). The intervention group consisted of 69 undergraduate students (Pre-course: 40% Men; 52% Women; 68% White; 10.5% Black; 7.4% Asian; 4.2% Hispanic/Latino) that voluntarily enrolled in five undergraduate courses that encouraged students to engage with key concepts and methods of character development through the application of research-based strategies and personal reflection on goals and experiences. Moral Growth Mindset was measured using the four-item Moral Growth Mindset scale (Han et al., 2020), with items such as You can improve your basic morals and character considerably on a six-point Likert scale from 1 (strongly disagree) to 6 (strongly agree). Higher scores of MGM indicate a stronger belief that one can become a more moral person with personal effort. Reliability at Time 1 was Cronbach’s ɑ= .833, and at Time 2 Cronbach’s ɑ= .772. An Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA) was conducted to explore whether post-course MGM scores were different between the intervention and control when controlling for pre-course MGM scores. The ANCOVA indicated significant differences in MGM between groups post-course, F(1,163) = 8.073, p = .005, R² = .11, where descriptive statistics indicate that intervention scores were higher than the control group at post-course. Results indicate that intentional character development pedagogy can be leveraged to support the development of Moral Growth Mindset and related capacities in undergraduate settings.

Keywords: moral personality, character education, incremental theories of personality, growth mindset

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Authors: Carolina L. Cerdeira, Julia V. F. Cortes, Maria E. V. Amarante, Gersika B. Santos

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Skin cancer is the most common cancer in several parts of the world; in a tropical country like Brazil, the situation isn’t different. The Brazilian population is exposed to high levels of solar radiation, increasing the risk of developing cutaneous carcinoma. Aimed at encouraging prevention measures and the early diagnosis of these tumors, a study was carried out that analyzed data on cutaneous melanomas, basal cell, and epidermoid carcinomas, using as primary data source the medical records of 161 patients registered in one pathology service, which performs skin biopsies in a city of Minas Gerais, Brazil. All patients diagnosed with skin cancer at this service from January 2015 to December 2019 were included. The incidence of skin carcinoma cases was correlated with the identification of histological type, sex, age group, and topographic location. Correlation between variables was verified by Fisher's exact test at a nominal significance level of 5%, with statistical analysis performed by R® software. A significant association was observed between age group and type of cancer (p=0.0085); age group and sex (0.0298); and type of cancer and body region affected (p < 0.01). Those 161 cases analyzed comprised 93 basal cell carcinomas, 66 epidermoid carcinomas, and only two cutaneous melanomas. In the group aged 19 to 30 years, the epidermoid form was most prevalent; from 31 to 45 and from 46 to 59 years, the basal cell prevailed; in 60-year-olds or over, both types had higher frequencies. Associating age group and sex, in groups aged 18 to 30 and 46 to 59 years, women were most affected. In the 31-to 45-year-old group, men predominated. There was a gender balance in the age group 60-year-olds or over. As for topography, there was a high prevalence in the head and neck, followed by upper limbs. Relating histological type and topography, there was a prevalence of basal cell and epidermoid carcinomas in the head and neck. In the chest, the basal cell form was most prevalent; in upper limbs, the epidermoid form prevailed. Cutaneous melanoma affected only the chest and upper limbs. About 82% of patients 60-year-olds or over had head and neck cancer; from 46 to 59 and 60-year-olds or over, the head and neck region and upper limbs were predominantly affected; the distribution was balanced in the 31-to 45-year-old group. In conclusion, basal cell carcinoma was predominant, whereas cutaneous melanoma was the rarest among the types analyzed. Patients 60-year-olds or over were most affected, showing gender balance. In young adults, there was a prevalence of the epidermoid form; in middle-aged patients, basal cell carcinoma was predominant; in the elderly, both forms presented with higher frequencies. There was a higher incidence of head and neck cancers, followed by malignancies affecting the upper limbs. The epidermoid type manifested significantly in the upper limbs. Body regions such as the thorax and lower limbs were less affected, which is justified by the lower exposure of these areas to incident solar radiation.

Keywords: basal cell carcinoma, cutaneous melanoma, skin cancer, squamous cell carcinoma, topographic location

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Authors: Scott M. Black, Craig Maclean, Pauline Hall Barrientos, Konstantinos Ritos, Asimina Kazakidi

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Aortic aneurysms and dissections are leading causes of death in cardiovascular disease. Both inevitably lead to hemodynamic instability without surgical intervention in the form of vascular stent-graft deployment. An accurate description of the aortic geometry and blood flow in patient-specific cases is vital for treatment planning and long-term success of such grafts, as they must generate physiological branch perfusion and in-stent hemodynamics. The aim of this study was to create patient-specific computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models through a multi-modality, multi-dimensional approach with boundary condition optimization to predict branch flow rates and in-stent hemodynamics in custom stent-graft configurations. Three-dimensional (3D) thoracoabdominal aortae were reconstructed from four-dimensional flow-magnetic resonance imaging (4D Flow-MRI) and computed tomography (CT) medical images. The former employed a novel approach to generate and enhance vessel lumen contrast via through-plane velocity at discrete, user defined cardiac time steps post-hoc. To produce patient-specific boundary conditions (BCs), the aortic geometry was reduced to a one-dimensional (1D) model. Thereafter, a zero-dimensional (0D) 3-Element Windkessel model (3EWM) was coupled to each terminal branch to represent the distal vasculature. In this coupled 0D-1D model, the 3EWM parameters were optimized to yield branch flow waveforms which are representative of the 4D Flow-MRI-derived in-vivo data. Thereafter, a 0D-3D CFD model was created, utilizing the optimized 3EWM BCs and a 4D Flow-MRI-obtained inlet velocity profile. A sensitivity analysis on the effects of stent-graft configuration and BC parameters was then undertaken using multiple stent-graft configurations and a range of distal vasculature conditions. 4D Flow-MRI granted unparalleled visualization of blood flow throughout the cardiac cycle in both the pre- and postsurgical states. Segmentation and reconstruction of healthy and stented regions from retrospective 4D Flow-MRI images also generated 3D models with geometries which were successfully validated against their CT-derived counterparts. 0D-1D coupling efficiently captured branch flow and pressure waveforms, while 0D-3D models also enabled 3D flow visualization and quantification of clinically relevant hemodynamic parameters for in-stent thrombosis and graft limb occlusion. It was apparent that changes in 3EWM BC parameters had a pronounced effect on perfusion distribution and near-wall hemodynamics. Results show that the 3EWM parameters could be iteratively changed to simulate a range of graft limb diameters and distal vasculature conditions for a given stent-graft to determine the optimal configuration prior to surgery. To conclude, this study outlined a methodology to aid in the prediction post-surgical branch perfusion and in-stent hemodynamics in patient specific cases for the implementation of custom stent-grafts.

Keywords: 4D flow-MRI, computational fluid dynamics, vascular stent-grafts, windkessel

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Authors: José M. Carmona, Diana Puigserver, Jofre Herrero

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Chlorinated solvents belong to the group of nonaqueous phase liquids (DNAPL) and have been involved in many contamination episodes. They are carcinogenic and recalcitrant pollutants that may be found in granular aquifers as: i) pools accumulated on low hydraulic conductivity layers; ii) immobile residual phase retained at the pore-scale by capillary forces; iii) dissolved phase in groundwater; iv) sorbed by particulate organic matter; and v) stored into the matrix of low hydraulic conductivity layers where they penetrated by molecular diffusion. The transition zone between granular aquifers and basal aquitards constitute the lowermost part of the aquifer and presents numerous fine-grained interbedded layers that give rise to significant textural contrasts. These layers condition the transport and fate of contaminants and lead to differences from the rest of the aquifer, given that: i) hydraulic conductivity of these layers is lower; ii) DNAPL tends to accumulate on them; iii) groundwater flow is slower in the transition zone and consequently pool dissolution is much slower; iv) sorbed concentrations are higher in the fine-grained layers because of their higher content in organic matter; v) a significant mass of pollutant penetrates into the matrix of these layers; and vi) this contaminant mass back-diffuses after remediation and the aquifer becomes contaminated again. Thus, contamination sources of chlorinated solvents are extremely more recalcitrant in transition zones, which has far-reaching implications for the environment. The aim of this study is to analyze the spatial and temporal differences in the evolution of biogeochemical processes in the transition zone and in the rest of the aquifer. For this, an unconfined aquifer with a transition zone in the lower part was selected at Vilafant (NE Spain). This aquifer was contaminated by perchloroethylene (PCE) in the 80’s. Distribution of PCE and other chloroethenes in groundwater and porewater was analyzed in: a) conventional piezometers along the plume and in two multilevel wells at the source of contamination; and b) porewater of fine grained materials from cores recovered when drilled the two multilevel wells. Currently, the highest concentrations continue to be recorded in the source area in the transition zone. By contrast, the lowest concentrations in this area correspond to the central part of the aquifer, where flow velocities are higher and a greater washing of the residual phase initially retained has occurred. The major findings of the study were: i) PCE metabolites were detected in the transition zone, where conditions were more reducing than in the rest of the aquifer; ii) however, reductive dechlorination was partial since only the formation of cis-dicholoroethylene (DCE) was reached; iii) In the central part of the aquifer, where conditions were predominantly oxidizing, the presence of nitrate significantly hindered the reductive declination of PCE. The remediation strategies to be implemented should be directed to enhance dissolution of the source, especially in the transition zone, where it is more recalcitrant. For example, by combining chemical and bioremediation methods, already tested at the laboratory scale with groundwater and sediments of this site.

Keywords: chlorinated solvents, chloroethenes, DNAPL, partial reductive dechlorination, PCE, transition zone to basal aquitard

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Authors: Estela Díaz

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This article aims to make three contributions. First, build on the literature on ethical decision-making literature by exploring factors that influence the intention of adopting veganism. Second, study the superiority of extended models of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) for understanding the process involved in forming the intention of adopting veganism. Third, analyze the moderating effect of gender on TPB given that attitudes and behavior towards animals are gender-sensitive. No study, to our knowledge, has examined these questions. Veganism is not a diet but a political and moral stand that exclude, for moral reasons, the use of animals. Although there is a growing interest in studying veganism, it continues being overlooked in empirical research, especially within the domain of social psychology. TPB has been widely used to study a broad range of human behaviors, including moral issues. Nonetheless, TPB has rarely been applied to examine ethical decisions about animals and, even less, to veganism. Hence, the validity of TPB in predicting the intention of adopting veganism remains unanswered. A total of 476 non-vegan Spanish university students (55.6% female; the mean age was 23.26 years, SD= 6.1) responded to online and pencil-and-paper self-reported questionnaire based on previous studies. TPB extended models incorporated two background factors: ‘general attitudes towards humanlike-attributes ascribed to animals’ (AHA) (capacity for reason/emotions/suffer, moral consideration, and affect-towards-animals); and ‘general attitudes towards 11 uses of animals’ (AUA). SPSS 22 and SmartPLS 3.0 were used for statistical analyses. This study constructed a second-order reflective-formative model and took the multi-group analysis (MGA) approach to study gender effects. Six models of TPB (the standard and five competing) were tested. No a priori hypotheses were formulated. The results gave partial support to TPB. Attitudes (ATTV) (β = .207, p < .001), subjective norms (SNV) (β = .323, p < .001), and perceived control behavior (PCB) (β = .149, p < .001) had a significant direct effect on intentions (INTV). This model accounted for 27,9% of the variance in intention (R2Adj = .275) and had a small predictive relevance (Q2 = .261). However, findings from this study reveal that contrary to what TPB generally proposes, the effect of the background factors on intentions was not fully mediated by the proximal constructs of intentions. For instance, in the final model (Model#6), both factors had significant multiple indirect effect on INTV (β = .074, 95% C = .030, .126 [AHA:INTV]; β = .101, 95% C = .055, .155 [AUA:INTV]) and significant direct effect on INTV (β = .175, p < .001 [AHA:INTV]; β = .100, p = .003 [AUA:INTV]). Furthermore, the addition of direct paths from background factors to intentions improved the explained variance in intention (R2 = .324; R2Adj = .317) and the predictive relevance (Q2 = .300) over the base-model. This supports existing literature on the superiority of enhanced TPB models to predict ethical issues; which suggests that moral behavior may add additional complexity to decision-making. Regarding gender effect, MGA showed that gender only moderated the influence of AHA on ATTV (e.g., βWomen−βMen = .296, p < .001 [Model #6]). However, other observed gender differences (e.g. the explained variance of the model for intentions were always higher for men that for women, for instance, R2Women = .298; R2Men = .394 [Model #6]) deserve further considerations, especially for developing more effective communication strategies.

Keywords: veganism, Theory of Planned Behavior, background factors, gender moderation

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Authors: Patrick Weber, Daniel Gredig

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Background and Purpose: Research has well documented the impact of discrimination and micro-aggressions on the wellbeing of gay men and, especially, adolescents. For the prevention of homophobic behavior against gay adolescents, however, the focus has to shift on those who discriminate: For the design and tailoring of prevention and intervention, it is important to understand the factors responsible for homophobic behavior such as, for example, verbal abuse. Against this background, the present study aimed to assess homophobic – in terms of verbally abusive – behavior against gay people among high school students. Furthermore, it aimed to establish the predictors of the reported behavior by testing an explanatory model. This model posits that homophobic behavior is determined by negative attitudes and knowledge. These variables are supposed to be predicted by the acceptance of traditional gender roles, religiosity, orientation toward social dominance, contact with gay men, and by the perceived expectations of parents, friends and teachers. These social-cognitive variables in turn are assumed to be determined by students’ gender, age, immigration background, formal school level, and the discussion of gay issues in class. Method: From August to October 2016, we visited 58 high school classes in 22 public schools in a county in Switzerland, and asked the 8th and 9th year students on three formal school levels to participate in survey about gender and gay issues. For data collection, we used an anonymous self-administered questionnaire filled in during class. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and structural equation modelling (Generalized Least Square Estimates method). The sample included 897 students, 334 in the 8th and 563 in the 9th year, aged 12–17, 51.2% being female, 48.8% male, 50.3% with immigration background. Results: A proportion of 85.4% participants reported having made homophobic statements in the 12 month before survey, 4.7% often and very often. Analysis showed that respondents’ homophobic behavior was predicted directly by negative attitudes (β=0.20), as well as by the acceptance of traditional gender roles (β=0.06), religiosity (β=–0.07), contact with gay people (β=0.10), expectations of parents (β=–0.14) and friends (β=–0.19), gender (β=–0.22) and having a South-East-European or Western- and Middle-Asian immigration background (β=0.09). These variables were predicted, in turn, by gender, age, immigration background, formal school level, and discussion of gay issues in class (GFI=0.995, AGFI=0.979, SRMR=0.0169, CMIN/df=1.199, p>0.213, adj. R2 =0.384). Conclusion: Findings evidence a high prevalence of homophobic behavior in the responding high school students. The tested explanatory model explained 38.4% of the assessed homophobic behavior. However, data did not found full support of the model. Knowledge did not turn out to be a predictor of behavior. Except for the perceived expectation of teachers and orientation toward social dominance, the social-cognitive variables were not fully mediated by attitudes. Equally, gender and immigration background predicted homophobic behavior directly. These findings demonstrate the importance of prevention and provide also leverage points for interventions against anti-gay bias in adolescents – also in social work settings as, for example, in school social work, open youth work or foster care.

Keywords: discrimination, high school students, gay men, predictors, Switzerland

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Authors: Anand R. Nair, Markus Trenker

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Lifting body concepts were conceived as early as 1917 and patented by Roy Scroggs. It was an idea of using the fuselage as a lift producing body with no or small wings. Many of these designs were developed and even flight tested between 1920’s to 1970’s, but it was not pursued further for commercial flight as at lower airspeeds, such a configuration was incapable to produce sufficient lift for the entire aircraft. The concept presented in this contribution is combining the lifting body design along with a fixed wing to maximise the lift produced by the aircraft. Conventional aircraft fuselages are designed to be aerodynamically efficient, which is to minimise the drag; however, these fuselages produce very minimal or negligible lift. For the design of an unmanned fixed wing transport aircraft, many of the restrictions which are present for commercial aircraft in terms of fuselage design can be excluded, such as windows for the passengers/pilots, cabin-environment systems, emergency exits, and pressurization systems. This gives new flexibility to design fuselages which are unconventionally shaped to contribute to the lift of the aircraft. The two lifting body concepts presented in this contribution are targeting different applications: For a fast cargo delivery drone, the fuselage is based on a scaled airfoil shape with a cargo capacity of 500 kg for euro pallets. The aircraft has a span of 14 m and reaches 1500 km at a cruising speed of 90 m/s. The aircraft could also easily be adapted to accommodate pilot and passengers with modifications to the internal structures, but pressurization is not included as the service ceiling envisioned for this type of aircraft is limited to 10,000 ft. The next concept to be investigated is called a multi-purpose drone, which incorporates a different type of lifting body and is a much more versatile aircraft as it will have a VTOL capability. The aircraft will have a wingspan of approximately 6 m and flight speeds of 60 m/s within the same service ceiling as the fast cargo delivery drone. The multi-purpose drone can be easily adapted for various applications such as firefighting, agricultural purposes, surveillance, and even passenger transport. Lifting body designs are not a new concept, but their effectiveness in terms of cargo transportation has not been widely investigated. Due to their enhanced lift producing capability, lifting body designs enable the reduction of the wing area and the overall weight of the aircraft. This will, in turn, reduce the thrust requirement and ultimately the fuel consumption. The various designs proposed in this contribution will be based on the general aviation category of aircrafts and will be focussed on unmanned methods of operation. These unmanned fixed-wing transport drones will feature appropriate cargo loading/unloading concepts which can accommodate large size cargo for efficient time management and ease of operation. The various designs will be compared in performance to their conventional counterpart to understand their benefits/shortcomings in terms of design, performance, complexity, and ease of operation. The majority of the performance analysis will be carried out using industry relevant standards in computational fluid dynamics software packages.

Keywords: lifting body concept, computational fluid dynamics, unmanned fixed-wing aircraft, cargo drone

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Authors: D. Mokatsanyane, J. Jansen Van Rensburg

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This paper analyses the influence and impact of COVID-19 on major agricultural commodity prices in South Africa. According to a World Bank report, the agricultural sector in South Africa has been unable to reduce the domestic food crisis that has been occurring over the past years, hence the increased rate of poverty, which is currently at 55.5 percent as of April 2020. Despite the significance of this sector, empirical findings concluded that the agricultural sector now accounts for 1.88 percent of South Africa's gross domestic product (GDP). Suggesting that the agricultural sector's contribution to the economy has diminished. Despite the low contribution to GDP, this primary sector continues to play an essential role in the economy. Over the past years, multiple factors have contributed to the soaring commodities prices, namely, climate shocks, biofuel demand, demand and supply shocks, the exchange rate, speculation in commodity derivative markets, trade restrictions, and economic growth. The COVID-19 outbursts have currently disturbed the supply and demand of staple crops. To address the disruption, the government has exempted the agricultural sector from closure and restrictions on movement. The spread of COVID-19 has caused turmoil all around the world, but mostly in developing countries. According to Statistic South Africa, South Africa's economy decreased by seven percent in 2020. Consequently, this has arguably made the agricultural sector the most affected sector since slumped economic growth negatively impacts food security, trade, farm livelihood, and greenhouse gas emissions. South Africa is sensitive to the fruitfulness of global food chains. Restrictions in trade, reinforced sanitary control systems, and border controls have influenced food availability and prices internationally. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the behavior of agricultural commodity prices pre-and during-COVID to determine the impact of volatility drivers on these crops. Historical secondary data of spot prices for the top five major commodities, namely white maize, yellow maize, wheat, soybeans, and sunflower seeds, are analysed from 01 January 2017 to 1 September 2021. The timeframe was chosen to capture price fluctuations between pre-COVID-19 (01 January 2017 to 23 March 2020) and during-COVID-19 (24 March 2020 to 01 September 2021). The Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) statistical model will be used to measure the influence of price fluctuations. The results reveal that the commodity market has been experiencing volatility at different points. Extremely high volatility is represented during the first quarter of 2020. During this period, there was high uncertainty, and grain prices were very volatile. Despite the influence of COVID-19 on agricultural prices, the demand for these commodities is still existing and decent. During COVID-19, analysis indicates that prices were low and less volatile during the pandemic. The prices and returns of these commodities were low during COVID-19 because of the government's actions to respond to the virus's spread, which collapsed the market demand for food commodities.

Keywords: commodities market, commodity prices, generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), Price volatility, SAFEX

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Authors: A. Abubakar, A. Parsa, S. Walker

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Despite advances made in the diagnosis and management of drug-sensitive tuberculosis (TB) over the past decades, treatment of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) remains challenging and complex particularly in high burden countries including Nigeria. Treatment of MDR-TB is cost-prohibitive with success rate generally lower compared to drug-sensitive TB and if care is not taken it may become the dominant form of TB in future with many treatment uncertainties and substantial morbidity and mortality. Addressing these challenges requires collaborative efforts thorough sustained researches to evaluate the current treatment guidelines, particularly in high burden countries and prevent progression of resistance. To our best knowledge, there has been no research exploring the acceptability, effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness of community-based-MDR-TB treatment model in Nigeria, which is among the high burden countries. The previous similar qualitative study looks at the home-based management of MDR-TB in rural Uganda. This research aimed to explore patient’s views and acceptability of community-based-MDR-TB treatment model and to evaluate and compare the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of community-based versus hospital-based MDR-TB treatment model of care from the Nigerian perspective. Knowledge of patient’s views and acceptability of community-based-MDR-TB treatment approach would help in designing future treatment recommendations and in health policymaking. Accordingly, knowledge of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness are part of the evidence needed to inform a decision about whether and how to scale up MDR-TB treatment, particularly in a poor resource setting with limited knowledge of TB. Mixed methods using qualitative and quantitative approach were employed. Qualitative data were obtained using in-depth semi-structured interviews with 21 MDR-TB patients in Nigeria to explore their views and acceptability of community-based MDR-TB treatment model. Qualitative data collection followed an iterative process which allowed adaptation of topic guides until data saturation. In-depth interviews were analyzed using thematic analysis. Quantitative data on treatment outcomes were obtained from medical records of MDR-TB patients to determine the effectiveness and direct and indirect costs were obtained from the patients using validated questionnaire and health system costs from the donor agencies to determine the cost-effectiveness difference between community and hospital-based model from the Nigerian perspective. Findings: Some themes have emerged from the patient’s perspectives indicating preference and high acceptability of community-based-MDR-TB treatment model by the patients and mixed feelings about the risk of MDR-TB transmission within the community due to poor infection control. The result of the modeling from the quantitative data is still on course. Community-based MDR-TB care was seen as the acceptable and most preferred model of care by the majority of the participants because of its convenience which in turn enhanced recovery, enables social interaction and offer more psychosocial benefits as well as averted productivity loss. However, there is a need to strengthen this model of care thorough enhanced strategies that ensure guidelines compliance and infection control in order to prevent the progression of resistance and curtail community transmission.

Keywords: acceptability, cost-effectiveness, multidrug-resistant TB treatment, community and hospital approach

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