Search results for: weighted rank regression

Authors: Rui Miguel Costa, Jose Pestana, David Costa, Paula Mangia, Catarina Correia, Mafalda Pinto Coelho

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There is lack of studies examining the relation of different heart rate variability (HRV) parameters with the risk of erectile dysfunction (ED) in younger men. Thus, the present study aimed at examining, in a nonclinical sample of men aged 19-39 years old (mean age = 23.98 years, SD = 4.90), the relations of risk of ED with the standard deviation of the heart rate (SD of HR), high and low frequency power of HRV, and low-to-high frequency HRV ratio. Eighty-three heterosexual Portuguese men completed the 5-item version of the International Index of Erectile Function (IIEF-5) and HRV parameters were calculated from a 5-minute resting period. Risk of ED was determined by IIEF-5 scores of 21 or less. Fifteen men (18.1%) reported symptoms of ED (14 with mild and one with mild to moderate symptoms). Univariate analyses of variance revealed that risk of ED was related to lesser SD of HR and lesser low-frequency power, the two HRV parameters that express a coupling of higher vagal and sympathetic tone. Risk of ED was unrelated to high-frequency power and low-to-high frequency HRV ratio. Further, in a logistic regression, the risk of ED was independently predicted by older age and lower SD of HR, but not by low-frequency power, having a regular sexual partner, and cohabiting. The results provide preliminary evidence that, in younger men, a coupling of higher vagal and sympathetic tone, as indexed by the SD of HR, is important for erections. Greater resting SD of HR might reflect better vascular and interpersonal function via vagal tone coupled with greater motor mobilization to pursue sexual intercourse via sympathetic tone. Many interventions can elevate HRV; future research is warranted on how they can be tailored to treat ED in younger men.

Keywords: erectile dysfunction, heart rate variability, standard deviation of the heart rate, younger men

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Authors: Chethika Gunasiri Wadumestrige Dona, Geetha Mohan, Kensuke Fukushi

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Solid waste in urban areas, especially from organic materials like garden waste, food, and degradable sources, can create health and environmental problems if not managed properly. Urban agriculture has emerged as a potential solution in developing countries to mitigate these issues. It offers the possibility of low-carbon economies and knowledge and innovation dissemination. Domestic composting is a significant aspect of urban agriculture, and its success relies on the attitudes of those who practice it. This study examines the perspectives of 402 urban farmers in the Colombo District, Sri Lanka, regarding domestic compost production. It aims to identify the factors that influence these perspectives. The research found that urban farmers are willing to participate in domestic composting because they believe that it facilitates effective recycling of organic waste within their households. The study used an ordinal regression model to determine the factors that shape farmers' perspectives. Age, family size, and crop preferences are significant determinants of the adoption of domestic composting practices among urban farmers in the Colombo District. These findings highlight the importance of understanding and addressing farmers' attitudes in designing effective waste management strategies. In addition, the study also emphasizes the need for tailored interventions that align with farmers' beliefs and preferences to enhance the adoption and implementation of domestic composting practices in urban areas. The insights gained from this study contribute to the academic discourse and offer practical guidance for policymakers and urban planners seeking to promote sustainable waste management practices and support the adoption of urban agriculture in the broader context of urban development.

Keywords: urban agriculture, domestic composting, farmers` perspectives, sustainable urban development

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Authors: Hsien Hwa Kuo, Lin Wen Chun, Lin Wen Chun, Hsien Wen Kuo

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Objective: Nurses represent an important occupational group frequently affected by wrist musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) due to a heavy workload, working shifts, poor posture, giving shots, making beds, lifting patients, bending their waist and insufficient rest time every day. However, lack of research reported nurses whether workload in household correlated with the severity of WMSDs. Methods: 550 nurses from a hospital in Taoyuan were interviewed using a modified standardized Nordic Musculoskeletal (NMQ) questionnaire including the demographic information, workplace condition and nine body parts of musculoskeletal disorders. Results: 17.9% and 23.9% of severity and symptoms in WMSDs among nurses with children were significant higher than among nurses without children (1​2.4% and 15.9%). Based on multiple logistic regression models adjusted for age, work duration, job title and body mass index (BMI), we found that heavy workload in hospital had higher odds ratio (OR) of the severity and symptoms of WMSD among nurses with children (OR= 8.67 and OR= 4.30, p<0.05) compared to nurses without children (OR= 1.94 and OR= 1.70). Conclusion: The severity and symptoms of WMSDs among nurses significantly correlated with workload in hospital among nurses with children. If women are at greater risk because of the combination of their work and family demands, synergistic effect of WMSDs was found among nurses. Comment: Women's domestic work, especially once they become mothers, they invest more time and energy caring for children, helping others, and doing housework. Thus domestic work, per se, may be a risk factor for wrist musculoskeletal problems, and, more importantly, it may constrain women's ability to protect themselves from the effects of their paid work. If nurses with more domestic work periodically make efforts to physical activity or modify inappropriate posture, their WMSDs symptoms will be alleviated.

Keywords: musculoskeletal disorders, nurse, NMQ, WMSDs

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Authors: Ju-Chun Chien

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The Ottawa Charter for Health Promotion proposed that the role of health services should shift the focus from cure to prevention. Nowadays, besides having physical examinations, people could also conduct genetic tests to provide important information for diagnosing, treating, and/or preventing illnesses. However, because of the incompletion of the Chinese Genetic Database, people in Taiwan were still unfamiliar with genetic testing. The purposes of the present study were to: (1) Figure out people’s attitudes towards genetic testing. (2) Examine factors that influence people’s intention to pursue genetic testing by means of the Health Belief Model (HBM). A pilot study was conducted on 249 Taiwanese in 2017 to test the feasibility of the self-developed instrument. The reliability and construct validity of scores on the self-developed questionnaire revealed that this HBM-based questionnaire with 40 items was a well-developed instrument. A total of 542 participants were recruited and the valid participants were 535 (99%) between the ages of 20 and 86. Descriptive statistics, one-way ANOVA, two-way contingency table analysis, Pearson’s correlation, and stepwise multiple regression analysis were used in this study. The main results were that only 32 participants (6%) had already undergone genetic testing; moreover, their attitude towards genetic testing was more positive than those who did not have the experience. Compared with people who never underwent genetic tests, those who had gone for genetic testing had higher self-efficacy, greater intention to pursue genetic testing, had academic majors in health-related fields, had chronic and genetic diseases, possessed Catastrophic Illness Cards, and all of them had heard about genetic testing. The variables that best predicted people’s intention to pursue genetic testing were cues to action, self-efficacy, and perceived benefits (the three variables all correlated with one another positively at high magnitudes). To sum up, the HBM could be effective in designing and identifying the needs and priorities of the target population to pursue genetic testing.

Keywords: genetic testing, knowledge of GT, people in Taiwan, the health belief model

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Authors: Raya Kathreen T. Fuentes, Christian Owen P. Domingo, Kaisha V. Durana, Kristine Chelsea Shynne M. Evangelista, Nicole A. Feliciano, Kathleen Patricia Q. Ferido, Christianna Joy J. Ferrer

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Diabetes Mellitus (DM) is a global public health concern. The foot ulcer is one of the most serious and costly complications of DM. Among the components of diabetes self-management (DSM), foot self-care was found to be one of the best preventive measures for foot ulcers yet is seldom performed. Thus, the purpose of this study is to determine how adequate foot self-care practices (FSP) are among Filipino adults with DM with the following objectives: 1) determine their DSM, 2) describe their FSP, 3) determine the relationship between FSP and DSM, and 4) determine the relationship of FSP to sociodemographic characteristics, disease-related characteristics, social support, and knowledge. A descriptive correlational design was utilized. 114 respondents aged 19-65 were selected through purposive sampling from diabetes clinics. A self-administered questionnaire regarding FSP, DSM, sociodemographic and disease-related characteristics, social support, and knowledge on diabetes were used. Pearson's correlation was utilized to determine the relationship between FSP and DSM while simple linear regression was used to determine the relationship of FSP to the factors aforementioned. Results showed that majority of the respondents have desirable DSM but inadequate FSP. FSP and DSM were shown to be positively correlated but not statistically significant (p = 0.8). Disparity among the two suggests that there is less emphasis on foot self-care compared to other components of DSM. Findings further revealed that patients diagnosed with DM for < 5 years demonstrated more adequate FSP compared to patients diagnosed for > 5 years which may suggest that newly diagnosed patients are more receptive to new information about DSM. Health education on DSM should place more emphasis on FSP. Reiteration of health education and continuous motivation should be done to all DM patients, not just to newly diagnosed patients, to improve compliance to FSP and enhance patient empowerment regarding self-care.

Keywords: diabetes mellitus, diabetes self-management, foot self-care practices, foot ulcer

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Authors: Cornelius Arome Omatola, Ropo Ebenezer Ogunsakin, Anyebe Bernard Onoja, Martin-Luther Oseni Okolo, Joseph Abraham-Oyiguh, Kehinde Charles Mofolorunso, Phoebe Queen Akoh, Omebije Patience Adejo, Joshua Idakwo, Therisa Ojomideju Okeme, Danjuma Muhammed, David Moses Adaji, Sunday Ocholi Samson, Ruth Aminu, Monday Eneojo Akor

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Gastroenteritis viruses are the leading etiologic agents of diarrhea in children worldwide. We present data from thirty-three (33) eligible studies published between 2003 and 2023 from African countries bearing the brunt of the virus-associated diarrheal mortality. Random effects meta-analysis with proportion, subgroups, and meta-regression analyses were employed. Overall, rotavirus with estimated pooled prevalence of 31.0% (95% CI 24.0–39.0) predominated in all primary care visits and hospitalizations, followed by norovirus, adenovirus, sapovirus, astrovirus, and aichivirus with pooled prevalence estimated at 15.0% (95% CI 12.0–20.0), 10% (95% CI 6-15), 4.0% (95% CI 2.0–6.0), 4% (95% CI 3-6), and 2.3% (95% CI 1-3), respectively. Predominant rotavirus genotype was G1P[8] (38%), followed by G3P[8] (11.7%), G9P[8] (8.7%), and G2P[4] (7.1%); although, unusual genotypes were also observed, including G3P[6] (2.7%), G8P[6] (1.7%), G1P[6] (1.5%), G10P[8] (0.9%), G8P[4] (0.5%), and G4P[8] (0.4%). The genogroup II norovirus predominated over the genogroup I-associated infections (84.6%, 613/725 vs 14.9%, 108/725), with the GII.4 (79.3%) being the most prevalent circulating genotype. In conclusion, this review showed that rotavirus remains the leading driver of viral diarrhea requiring health care visits and hospitalization among under-five years children in Africa. Thus, improved rotavirus vaccination in the region and surveillance to determine the residual burden of rotavirus and the evolving trend of other enteric viruses are needed for effective control and management of cases.

Keywords: enteric viruses, rotavirus, norovirus, adenovirus, astrovirus, gastroenteritis

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Authors: Protus A. Lumiti, Susan O. Wekesa, Mary Omondi

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Performance is a key pillar to the accomplishment of the goals of all organizations, whether private, public or non- profit. Employees are the intellectual assets of the organization and they are an avenue to the achievement of competitive advantage. An employee welfare service in an organization is vital in fostering employee motivation and improving their productivity. In view of this, the main goal of this research was to determine the relationship between employee welfare practices and the performance of non-governmental organizations in Kenya. The study was guided by four objectives, namely: to establish, determine, evaluate and assess the relationship between employee welfare practices and the performance of non-governmental organizations in Kenya. The study utilized a survey design using both qualitative and quantitative approaches. In this study, a purposive, stratified and simple random sampling technique was used to arrive at a sample of 355 respondents who comprised senior managers, middle level managers and operational employees out of the targeted population of 14,283 employees of non-governmental organizations working in Nairobi County. The primary data collection tools were questionnaires supplemented by an interview schedule, while secondary data was obtained from reviewed journals, published books and articles. Data analysis was done using Statistical Packages for Social Sciences Software version 23. The study utilized multiple linear regression and a structural equation model. The findings of the study were that: employee welfare practices had a positive and significant relationship with the performance of Non-governmental organizations in Kenya. In addition, there was also a linear relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variable and the study concluded that there was a relationship between the predictor variable and the dependent variable of the study. The study recommended that management of No-governmental organization boards in Kenya should come up with a comprehensive policy document on employee welfare practices in order to enhance the performance of non-governmental organizations in Kenya.

Keywords: employee, economic, performance, welfare

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Authors: Tew Leh Ghee

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The study's goal is to determine how celebrity endorsement affects Malaysian consumers' attitudes and intentions to buy skincare products. Since customers now largely rely on celebrity endorsement to influence purchasing decisions in almost every business, celebrity endorsement is not, in reality, a new phenomenon. Even though the market for skincare products has a vast potential to be exploited, corporations have yet to seize this niche via celebrity endorsement. Basically, there hasn't been much study done to recognize the significance of celebrity endorsement in this industry. This research combined descriptive and quantitative methods with a self-administered survey as the primary data-gathering tool. All of the characteristics under study were measured using a 5-point Likert scale, and the questionnaire was written in English. A convenience sample method was used to choose respondents, and 360 sets of valid questionnaires were gathered for the study's statistical analysis. Preliminary statistical analyses were analyzed using SPSS version 20.0 (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences). The backdrop of the respondents' demographics was examined using descriptive analysis. All concept assessments' validity and reliability were examined using exploratory factor analysis, item-total statistics, and reliability statistics. Pearson correlation and regression analysis were used, respectively, to assess relationships and impacts between the variables under study. The research showed that, apart from competence, celebrity endorsements of skincare products in Malaysia had a favorable impact on attitudes and purchase intentions as evaluated by attractiveness and dependability. The research indicated that the most significant element influencing attitude and buy intention was the credibility of a celebrity endorsement. The study offered implications in order to provide potential improvements of celebrity endorsement in skincare goods in Malaysia. The study's last portion includes its limits and ideas for the future.

Keywords: trustworthiness, influential, phenomenon, celebrity emdorsement

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Authors: Hurgesa Hundera, Samuel Shibeshibikeko, Tarike Daba, Tesfaye Ganamo

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The study aimed at examining the ongoing adaptation strategies used by smallholder farmers in response to climate variability in Boset district. It also assessed the socioeconomic factors that influence the choice of adaptation strategies of smallholder farmers to climate variability risk. For attaining the objectives of the study, both primary and secondary sources of data were employed. The primary data were obtained through a household questionnaire, key informant interviews, focus group discussions, and observations, while secondary data were acquired through desk review. Questionnaires were distributed and filled by 328 respondents, and they were identified through systematic random sampling technique. Descriptive statistics and binary logistic regression model were applied in this study as the main analytical methods. The findings of the study reveal that the sample households have utilized multiple adaptation strategies in response to climate variability, such as cropping early mature crops, planting drought resistant crops, growing mixed crops on the same farm lands, and others. The results of the binary logistic model revealed that education, sex, age, family size, off farm income, farm experience, access to climate information, access to farm input, and farm size were significant and key factors determining farmers’ choice of adaptation strategies to climate variability in the study area. To enable effective adaptation measures, Ministry of Agriculture and Natural Resource, with its regional bureaus and offices and concerned non–governmental organizations, should consider climate variability in their planning and budgeting in all levels of decision making.

Keywords: adaptation strategies, boset district, climate variability, smallholder farmers

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Authors: Khader A. Almhdawi, Saddam F. Kanaan

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Background: Allied health (AH) students, including rehabilitation sciences students, are subjected to significant levels of physical and mental stressors, which could affect their education. This study aimed to study physical and mental of Health-related Quality of Life (HR-QoL) levels along with their predictors among students of nine AH majors. Methods: Students filled validated anonymous surveys covering demographics and life style, Nordic Musculoskeletal Questionnaire, 12-item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-12), and Depression Anxiety Stress Scale (DASS- 42). SF-12 Mental (MCS) and Physical (PCS) summary scores were compared between academic majors and gender. Multiple linear regression models were conducted to examine potential predictors of PCS and MCS scores. Results: 838 students (77.4% females) participated in this study. Participants’ PCS mean score was 45.64±7.93 and found statistically different between the nine academic majors (P < 0.001). Additionally, participants’’ MCS mean score was 39.45±10.86 and significantly greater in males (P < 0.001). Significant PCS scores predictors included hip and upper back musculoskeletal pain, anxiety score, diet self-evaluation, and GPA. Finally, MCS scores were statistically associated with neck musculoskeletal pain, stress score, depression score, number of weekly clinical training hours, gender, university year, GPA, sleep quality self-evaluation, and diet self-evaluation. Conclusion: Clinical educators of AH need to account for students’ low levels of HR-QoL and their academic-related, health-related, and lifestyle-related associated factors. More studies are recommended to investigate the progression of HR-QoL throughout university years and to create effective interventions to improve HR-QoL among healthcare students.

Keywords: medical education, quality of life, stress, anxiety, depression

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Authors: John Akpesiri Olotewo

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One of the controversies in existing marketing literatures is on how to retain existing and new customers to have repurchase intention in the long-run; however, empirical answer to this question is scanty in existing studies. Thus, this study investigates the moderating effect of consumer loyalty on long-run repurchase intentions in telecommunication industry using Lagos State environs. The study adopted field survey research design using questionnaire to elicit responses from 250 respondents who were selected using random and stratified random sampling techniques from the telecommunication industry in Lagos State, Nigeria. The internal consistency of the research instrument was verified using the Cronbach’s alpha, the result of 0.89 implies the acceptability of the internal consistency of the survey instrument. The test of the research hypotheses were analyzed using Pearson Product Method of Correlation (PPMC), simple regression analysis and inferential statistics with the aid of Statistical Package for Social Science version 20.0 (SPSS). The study confirmed that customer satisfaction has a significant relationship with customer loyalty in the telecommunication industry; also Service quality has a significant relationship with customer loyalty to a brand; loyalty programs have a significant relationship with customer loyalty to a network operator in Nigeria and Customer loyalty has a significant effect on the long run repurchase intentions of the customer. The study concluded that one of the determinants of long term profitability of a business entity is the long run repurchase intentions of its customers which hinges on the level of brand loyalty of the customer. Thus, it was recommended that service providers in Nigeria should improve on factors like customer satisfaction, service quality, and loyalty programs in order to increase the loyalty of their customer to their brands thereby increasing their repurchase intentions.

Keywords: customer loyalty, long run repurchase intentions, brands, service quality and customer satisfaction

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Authors: Mohamed H. Khalifa, Fikry I. El-Shahawi, Nabil A. Mansour

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The cotton leafworm, Spodoptera littoralis (Boisduval) is a major insect pest of vegetables and cotton crops in Egypt, and exhibits different levels of tolerance to certain insecticides. Chlorantraniliprole has been registered recently in Egypt for control this insect. The susceptibilities of three S. littoralis populations collected from El Behaira governorate, north Egypt to chlorantraniliprole were determined by leaf-dipping technique on 4^th instar larvae. Obvious variation of toxicity was observed among the laboratory susceptible, and three field populations with LC₅₀ values ranged between 1.53 µg/ml and 6.22 µg/ml. However, all the three field populations were less susceptible to chlorantraniliprole than a laboratory susceptible population. The most tolerant populations were sampled from El Delengat (ED) Province where S. littoralis had been frequently challenged by insecticides. Certain enzyme activity assays were carried out to be correlated with the mechanism of the observed field population tolerance. All field populations showed significantly enhanced activities of detoxification enzymes compared with the susceptible strain. The regression analysis between chlorantraniliprole toxicities and enzyme activities revealed that the highest correlation is between α-esterase or β-esterase (α-β-EST) activity and collected field strains susceptibility, otherwise this correlation is not significant (P > 0.05). Synergism assays showed the ED and susceptible strains could be synergized by known detoxification inhibitors such as piperonyl butoxide (PBO), triphenyl phosphate (TPP) and diethyl-maleate (DEM) at different levels (1.01-8.76-fold and 1.09-2.94 fold, respectively), TPP showed the maximum synergism in both strains. The results show that there is a correlation between the enzyme activity and tolerance, and carboxylic-esterase (Car-EST) is likely the main detoxification mechanism responsible for tolerance of S. littoralis to chlorantraniliprole.

Keywords: chlorantraniliprole, detoxification enzymes, Egypt, Spodoptera littoralis

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Authors: Elham Fathi, Seyed Mohammad Kalantarkousheh, Abolfazl Hatami Varzane

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The present study aimed to determine predict capacity of the relationship among attachment styles, humor styles and communication patterns in female married students. Statistical population consisted of female married students from Allameh Tabataba’i University. The research sample consisted of 104 married students selected through convenience sampling. They responded to study instruments that consisted of attachment styles, humor styles and Communication patterns questionnaires. Data was analyzed by means of correlation method. The results indicated significant positive relationship between secure attachment styles with adaptive humor styles, and anxious attachment styles with maladaptive humor styles. Also a negative relationship between avoidant attachment with affiliative humor, and anxious attachment with self-enhancing humor was found. Furthermore, a negative relationship between self- enhancing humor styles with demand – withdraw communication pattern, and between affiliative humor with mutual avoidant communication pattern and a positive relationship between affiliative humor with mutual constructive communication pattern was observed. The relationship between secure attachment with mutual constructive communication pattern was positive, while relationship between avoidant attachment to mutual constructive communication pattern was negative and significant and its relation with mutual avoidant communication pattern was significantly positive. The result of regression analysis indicated that affliative humor style and secure attachment style, positively predicted mutual constructive communication pattern. Avoidant attachment style positively and affliative humor style negatively predicted the mutual avoidant communication pattern. And self-enhancing humor style negatively predicted the demand – withdraw communication pattern style.

Keywords: attachment styles, communication patterns, humor styles, female married students

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Authors: Hsi-Chuan Wang, Hongxi Yin

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Compactness has been proposed as a type of sustainable urban form globally. However, the meanings and the measurements might diverse in regarding to the varying interpretation; moreover, since compactness was proposed to eliminate auto culture and urban sprawl in the developed countries, voices have emerged asking to rethink the suitability of compactness in the developing countries – based upon such understanding, Quality of Life (QOL) has been suggested as a good way to show the overall benefit of compactness. In regarding to such background, two subjects were targeted for discussion in this paper: (I) the meaning and feasibility of compactness between the developing and developed countries, and (II) the interaction between compactness and QOL. This paper argues that compactness should not be considered a universal principle for cities of all kind, but rather an ideal concept for urban designer and planner to consider throughout local practices. It firstly reviewed the benefits of both compactness and sprawl to uncover the features behind these urban forms, and later addressed the meaning and difficulty of adopting compactness in both the developing and developed countries. Secondly, arguing compactness to be positioned as a ‘process’ along the transition from the developing countries to the developed ones, this paper applied both cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis to uncover (I) the relationship between compactness and QOL in regarding to 30 American cities and (II) the impact of ‘becoming compact’ on QOL in regarding to 8 identified American Urbanized Areas (UZAs). The findings indicated that higher compactness could link to lower QOL among the compact cities, but with higher QOL among the sprawl cities. In addition, based upon the comparison between 2000 and 2010 on 8 UZAs, their QOL have escalated during the transition from the sprawl areas into the compact ones, but the extent of improvement in QOL could differ greatly among areas. In regarding to our findings, compact development should be proposed as a general guideline leading the contemporary sprawl cities in transition with sustainable urbanism; however, to prevent the externalities from damaging QOL with over-compactness, the compact policy should be flexible to adjust a long-term roadmap for sustainable development.

Keywords: compactness, quality of life, sprawl, sustainable urbanism

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Authors: Natalia Feruleva

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The goal of this paper is to develop the fraud risk assessment model basing on both relational and financial data and test the impact of the relationships between Russian non-public companies on the likelihood of financial fraud commitment. Relationships mean various linkages between companies such as parent-subsidiary relationship and person-related relationships. These linkages may provide additional opportunities for committing fraud. Person-related relationships appear when firms share a director, or the director owns another firm. The number of companies belongs to CEO and managed by CEO, the number of subsidiaries was calculated to measure the relationships. Moreover, the dummy variable describing the existence of parent company was also included in model. Control variables such as financial leverage and return on assets were also implemented because they describe the motivating factors of fraud. To check the hypotheses about the influence of the chosen parameters on the likelihood of financial fraud, information about person-related relationships between companies, existence of parent company and subsidiaries, profitability and the level of debt was collected. The resulting sample consists of 160 Russian non-public firms. The sample includes 80 fraudsters and 80 non-fraudsters operating in 2006-2017. The dependent variable is dichotomous, and it takes the value 1 if the firm is engaged in financial crime, otherwise 0. Employing probit model, it was revealed that the number of companies which belong to CEO of the firm or managed by CEO has significant impact on the likelihood of financial fraud. The results obtained indicate that the more companies are affiliated with the CEO, the higher the likelihood that the company will be involved in financial crime. The forecast accuracy of the model is about is 80%. Thus, the model basing on both relational and financial data gives high level of forecast accuracy.

Keywords: financial fraud, fraud prediction, non-public companies, regression analysis, relational data

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Authors: Tayib Bromand, Keisuke Sato

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This paper presents the introduction to current water balance and climate change assessment in the Kabul river basin. The historical and future impacts of climate change on different components of water resources and hydrology in the Kabul river basin. The eastern part of Afghanistan, the Kabul river basin was chosen due to rapid population growth and land degradation to quantify the potential influence of Gobal Climate Change on its hydrodynamic characteristics. Luck of observed meteorological data was the main limitation of present research, few existed precipitation stations in the plain area of Kabul basin selected to compare with TRMM precipitation records, the result has been evaluated satisfactory based on regression and normal ratio methods. So the TRMM daily precipitation and NCEP temperature data set applied in the SWAT model to evaluate water balance for 2008 to 2012. Middle of the twenty – first century (2064) selected as the target period to assess impacts of climate change on hydrology aspects in the Kabul river basin. For this purpose three emission scenarios, A2, A1B and B1 and four GCMs, such as MIROC 3.2 (Med), CGCM 3.1 (T47), GFDL-CM2.0 and CNRM-CM3 have been selected, to estimate the future initial conditions of the proposed model. The outputs of the model compared and calibrated based on (R2) satisfactory. The assessed hydrodynamic characteristics and precipitation pattern. The results show that there will be significant impacts on precipitation patter such as decreasing of snowfall in the mountainous area of the basin in the Winter season due to increasing of 2.9°C mean annual temperature and land degradation due to deforestation.

Keywords: climate change, emission scenarios, hydrological components, Kabul river basin, SWAT model

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Authors: Olatunde Sunday Eludoyin, Charles Obiechina Olisa

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The study examined the spatial interactions between earthworm abundance (EA) and tree growth characteristics in ecological belts of Western Niger Delta, Nigeria. Eight 20m x 20m quadrat were delimited in the natural vegetation in each of the rainforest (RF), mangrove (M), fresh water swamp (FWS), and guinea savanna (GS) ecological belts to gather data about the tree species (TS) characteristics which included individual number of tree species (IN), diversity (Di), density (De) and richness (Ri). Three quadrats of 1m x 1m were delineated in each of the 20m x 20m quadrats to collect earthworm species the topsoil (0-15cm), and subsoil (15-30cm) and were taken to laboratory for further analysis. Descriptive statistics and inferential statistics were used for data analysis. Findings showed that a total of 19 earthworm species was found, with 58.5% individual species recorded in the topsoil and 41.5% recorded in the subsoil. The total population ofEudriliuseugeniae was predominantly highest in both topsoil (38.4%) and subsoil (27.1%). The total population of individual species of earthworm was least in GS in the topsoil (11.9%) and subsoil (8.4%). A total of 40 different species of TS was recorded, of which 55.5% were recorded in FWS, while RF was significantly highest in the species diversity(0.5971). Regression analysis revealed that Ri, IN, DBH, Di, and De of trees explained 65.9% of the variability of EA in the topsoil, while 46.9 % of the variability of earthworm abundance was explained by the floristic parameters in the subsoil.Similarly, correlation statistics revealed that in the topsoil, EA is positively and significantly correlated with Ri (r=0.35; p<0.05), IN (r=0.523; p<0.05) and De (r=0.469; p<0.05) while DBH was negatively and significantly correlated with earthworm abundance (r=-0.437; p<0.05). In the subsoil, only Ri and DBH correlated significantly with EA. The study concluded that EA in the study locations was highly influenced by tree growth species especially Ri, IN, DBH, Di, and De. The study recommended that the TSabundance should be improved in the study locations to ensure the survival of earthworms for ecosystem functions.

Keywords: interactions, earthworm abundance, tree growth, ecological zones, western niger delta

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Authors: A van Onselen, C. M. Walsh, F. J. Veldman, C. Brand

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Objectives: To determine the nutritional status and risk factors associated with women practicing geophagia in QwaQwa, South Africa. Materials and Methods: An observational epidemiological study design was adopted which included an exposed (geophagia) and non-exposed (control) group. A food frequency questionnaire, anthropometric measurements and blood sampling were applied to determine nutritional status of participants. Logistic regression analysis was performed in order to identify factors that were likely to be associated with the practice of geophagia. Results: The mean total energy intake for the geophagia group (G) and control group(C) were 10324.31 ± 2755.00 kJ and 10763.94 ± 2556.30 kJ respectively. Both groups fell within the overweight category according to the mean body mass index (BMI) of each group (G= 25.59 kg/m2; C= 25.14 kg/m2). The mean serum iron levels of the geophagia group (6.929 μmol/l) were significantly lower than that of the control group (13.75 μmol/l) (p = 0.000). Serum transferrin (G=3.23g/l; C=2.7054g/l) and serum transferrin saturation (G=8.05%; C=18.74%) levels also differed significantly between groups (p=0.00). Factors that were associated with the practice of geophagia included haemoglobin (Odds ratio (OR):14.50), serum-iron (OR: 9.80), serum-ferritin (OR: 3.75), serum-transferrin (OR: 6.92) and transferrin saturation (OR: 14.50). A significant negative association (p=0.014) was found between women who were wage-earners and those who were not wage-earners and the practice of geophagia (OR: 0.143; CI: 0.027; 0.755). These findings seem to indicate that a permanent income may decrease the likelihood of practising geophagia. Key findings: Geophagia was confirmed to be a risk factor for iron deficiency in this community. The significantly strong association between geophagia and iron deficiency emphasizes the importance of identifying the practice of geophagia in women, especially during their child bearing years. Further research to establish whether the practice of geophagia is a cause of iron-deficiency, or whether it is the consequence thereof, would give a clearer view on how to recognise and treat the condition.

Keywords: geophagia, iron deficiency anaemia, dietary intake, anthropometry

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Authors: Isaac Kofi Mensah

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The manual system of voting has been the most widely used system of electing representatives around the globe, particularly in Africa. Due to the known numerous problems and challenges associated with the manual system of voting, many countries are migrating to the electronic voting system as a suitable and credible means of electing representatives over the manual paper-based system. This research paper therefore investigated the factors influencing adoption and use of an electronic voting system in Ghana. A total of 400 Questionnaire Instruments (QI) were administered to potential respondents in Ghana, of which 387 responded representing a response rate of 96.75%. The Technology Acceptance Model was used as the theoretical framework for the study. The research model was tested using a simple linear regression analysis with SPSS. A little of over 71.1% of the respondents recommended the Electoral Commission (EC) of Ghana to adopt an electronic voting system in the conduct of public elections in Ghana. The results indicated that all the six predictors such as perceived usefulness (PU), perceived ease of use (PEOU), perceived free and fair elections (PFFF), perceived credible elections (PCE), perceived system integrity (PSI) and citizens trust in the election management body (CTEM) were all positively significant in predicting the readiness of citizens to adopt and use an electronic voting system in Ghana. However, jointly, the hypotheses tested revealed that apart from Perceived Free and Fair Elections and Perceived Credible and Transparent Elections, all the other factors such as PU, Perceived System Integrity and Security and Citizen Trust in the Election Management Body were found to be significant predictors of the Willingness of Ghanaians to use an electronic voting system. All the six factors considered in this study jointly account for about 53.1% of the reasons determining the readiness to adopt and use an electronic voting system in Ghana. The implications of this research finding on elections in Ghana are discussed.

Keywords: credible elections, Election Management Body (EMB), electronic voting, Ghana, Technology Acceptance Model (TAM)

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Authors: Mohamed Aly, Aliaa Rehan Youssef, Emad Sawerees, Mounir Guirgis

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Relevance: Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common degenerative disease seen in all populations. It causes disability and substantial socioeconomic burden. Evidence supports that exercise are the most effective conservative treatment for patients with OA. Therapists experience and clinical judgment play major role in exercise prescription and scientific evidence for this regard is lacking. The development of clinical prediction rules to identify patients who are most likely benefit from exercise may help solving this dilemma. Purpose: This study investigated whether body mass index and functional ability at baseline can predict patients’ response to a selected exercise program. Approach: Fifty-six patients, aged 35 to 65 years, completed an exercise program consisting of open kinetic chain strengthening and passive stretching exercises. The program was given for 3 sessions per week, 45 minutes per session, for 6 weeks Evaluation: At baseline and post treatment, pain severity was assessed using the numerical pain rating scale, whereas functional ability was being assessed by step test (ST), time up and go test (TUG) and 50 feet time walk test (50 FTW). After completing the program, global rate of change (GROC) score of greater than 4 was used to categorize patients as successful and non-successful. Thirty-eight patients (68%) had successful response to the intervention. Logistic regression showed that BMI and 50 FTW test were the only significant predictors. Based on the results, patients with BMI less than 34.71 kg/m2 and 50 FTW test less than 25.64 sec are 68% to 89% more likely to benefit from the exercise program. Conclusions: Clinicians should consider the described strengthening and flexibility exercise program for patents with BMI less than 34.7 Kg/m2 and 50 FTW faster than 25.6 seconds. The validity of these predictors should be investigated for other exercise.

Keywords: clinical prediction rule, knee osteoarthritis, physical therapy exercises, validity

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Authors: E. Von Cheong, Carol Sinnott, Darren Dahly, Patricia M. Kearney

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Introduction and Aim: Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are all too common and have been linked to poorer health and wellbeing across the life course. While the prevention of ACEs is a worthy goal, it is important that we also try to lessen the impact of ACEs for those who do experience them. This study aims to investigate associations between adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and later-life depressive symptoms; and to explore whether perceived social support (PSS) moderates these. Method: We analysed baseline data from the Mitchelstown (Ireland) 2010-11 cohort involving 2047 men and women aged 50–69 years. Self-reported assessments included ACEs (Centre for Disease Control ACE questionnaire), PSS (Oslo Social Support Scale), and depressive symptoms (CES-D). The primary exposure was self-report of at least one ACE. We also investigated the effects of ACE exposure by the subtypes abuse, neglect, and household dysfunction. Associations between each of these exposures and depressive symptoms were estimated using logistic regression, adjusted for socio-demographic factors that were selected using the Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) approach. We also tested whether the estimated associations varied across levels of PSS (poor, moderate, and good). Results: 23.7% of participants reported at least one ACE (95% CI: 21.9% to 25.6%). ACE exposures (overall or subtype) were associated with a higher odds of depressive symptoms, but only among individuals with poor PSS. For example, exposure to any ACE (vs. none) was associated with 3 times the odds of depressive symptoms (Adjusted OR 2.97; 95% CI 1.63 to 5.40) among individuals reporting poor PSS, while among those reporting moderate PSS, the adjusted OR was 1.18 (95% CI 0.72 to 1.94). Discussion: ACEs are common among older adults in Ireland and are associated with higher odds of later-life depressive symptoms among those also reporting poor PSS. Interventions that enhance perception of social support following ACE exposure may help reduce the burden of depression in older populations.

Keywords: adverse childhood experiences, depression, later-life, perceived social support

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Authors: Mazwane S., Makhura M. N., Ginege A.

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Digitalization in South Africa has received considerable attention from policymakers. The support for the development of the digital economy by the South African government has been demonstrated through the enactment of various national policies and strategies. This study sought to develop an index for agricultural digitalization by applying composite confirmatory analysis (CCA). Another aim was to determine the factors that affect the development of digitalization in PLAS farms. Data on the indicators of the three dimensions of digitalization were collected from 300 Proactive Land Acquisition Strategy (PLAS) farms in South Africa using semi-structured questionnaires. Confirmatory composite analysis (CCA) was employed to reduce the items into three digitalization dimensions and ultimately to a digitalization index. Standardized digitalization index scores were extracted and fitted to a linear regression model to determine the factors affecting digitalization development. The results revealed that the model shows practical validity and can be used to measure digitalization development as measures of fit (geodesic distance, standardized root mean square residual, and squared Euclidean distance) were all below their respective 95%quantiles of bootstrap discrepancies (HI95 values). Therefore, digitalization is an emergent variable that can be measured using CCA. The average level of digitalization in PLAS farms was 0.2 and varied significantly across provinces. The factors that significantly influence digitalization development in PLAS land reform farms were age, gender, farm type, network type, and cellular data type. This should enable researchers and policymakers to understand the level of digitalization and patterns of development, as well as correctly attribute digitalization development to the contributing factors.

Keywords: agriculture, digitalization, confirmatory composite model, land reform, proactive land acquisition strategy, South Africa

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Authors: Rehan Deshmukh, Sunil Bhand, Utpal Roy

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We report the label-free electrochemical detection of Escherichia coli O157:H7 (ATCC 43895) in potable water using a DNA probe as a sensing molecule targeting the open reading frame marker. Indium tin oxide (ITO) surface was modified with organosilane and, glutaraldehyde was applied as a linker to fabricate the DNA sensor chip. Non-Faradic electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) behavior was investigated at each step of sensor fabrication using cyclic voltammetry, impedance, phase, relative permittivity, capacitance, and admittance. Atomic force microscopy (AFM) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) revealed significant changes in surface topographies of DNA sensor chip fabrication. The decrease in the percentage of pinholes from 2.05 (Bare ITO) to 1.46 (after DNA hybridization) suggested the capacitive behavior of the DNA sensor chip. The results of non-Faradic EIS studies of DNA sensor chip showed a systematic declining trend of the capacitance as well as the relative permittivity upon DNA hybridization. DNA sensor chip exhibited linearity in 0.5 to 25 pg/10mL for E. coli O157:H7 (ATCC 43895). The limit of detection (LOD) at 95% confidence estimated by logistic regression was 0.1 pg DNA/10mL of E. coli O157:H7 (equivalent to 13.67 CFU/10mL) with a p-value of 0.0237. Moreover, the fabricated DNA sensor chip used for detection of E. coli O157:H7 showed no significant cross-reactivity with closely and distantly related bacteria such as Escherichia coli MTCC 3221, Escherichia coli O78:H11 MTCC 723 and Bacillus subtilis MTCC 736. Consequently, the results obtained in our study demonstrated the possible application of developed DNA sensor chips for E. coli O157:H7 ATCC 43895 in real water samples as well.

Keywords: capacitance, DNA sensor, Escherichia coli O157:H7, open reading frame marker

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Authors: Mahshid Asadollahi, Mohammad Akbari Asl

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The restaurant industry is highly competitive, and restaurants are constantly looking for ways to attract new customers and retain their existing ones. Nonverbal communication is an important factor in creating a positive customer experience and can play a significant role in attracting customers to restaurants. Nonverbal communication can include body language, facial expressions, tone of voice, and physical proximity, among other things. The present study aimed to investigate the impact of nonverbal communication between restaurant employees and customers on attracting customers in food courts in Tehran. The research method was descriptive-correlational, and the statistical population of this study included all customers of food court restaurants in Tehran, which was about 30 restaurants. The research sample was selected through probability sampling, and 440 customers completed emotional response, customer satisfaction, and nonverbal communication questionnaires in person. The data obtained were analyzed using multiple regression analysis. The results showed that vocal language, employee proximity, physical appearance, and speech movements, as components of nonverbal communication of restaurant employees, had an impact on attracting customers. Additionally, positive and negative emotions of customers have a significant relationship with customer attraction in Food Court restaurants. The study shows that various nonverbal communication factors can play a significant role in attracting customers, and that positive and negative customer emotions can affect customer satisfaction. Therefore, restaurant owners and managers should pay attention to nonverbal communication and train their employees accordingly to create a positive and welcoming atmosphere for customers.

Keywords: verbal language, proximity of employees, physical appearance, speech gestures, nonverbal communication, customer emotions, customer attraction

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Authors: Abdulmalik Altuwayjiri, Milad Pirhadi, Mohammed Kalafy, Badr Alharbi, Constantinos Sioutas

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In this study, we investigated the chemical and toxicological characteristics of PM10 in the metropolitan area of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. PM10 samples were collected on quartz and teflon filters during cold (December 2019–April 2020) and warm (May 2020–August 2020) seasons, including dust and non-dust events. The PM10 constituents were chemically analyzed for their metal, inorganic ions, and elemental and organic carbon (EC/OC) contents. Additionally, the PM10 oxidative potential was measured by means of the dithiothreitol (DTT) assay. Our findings revealed that the oxidative potential of the collected ambient PM10 samples was significantly higher than those measured in many urban areas worldwide. The oxidative potential of the collected ambient PM¹⁰⁻ samples was also higher during dust episodes compared to non-dust events, mainly due to higher concentrations of metals during these events. We performed Pearson correlation analysis, principal component analysis (PCA), and multi-linear regression (MLR) to identify the most significant sources contributing to the toxicity of PM¹⁰⁻ The results of the MLR analyses indicated that the major pollution sources contributing to the oxidative potential of ambient PM10 were soil and resuspended dust emissions (identified by Al, K, Fe, and Li) (31%), followed by secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation (traced by SO₄-² and NH+₄) (20%), and industrial activities (identified by Se and La) (19%), and traffic emissions (characterized by EC, Zn, and Cu) (17%). Results from this study underscore the impact of transported dust emissions on the oxidative potential of ambient PM10 in Riyadh and can be helpful in adopting appropriate public health policies regarding detrimental outcomes of exposure to PM₁₀-

Keywords: ambient PM10, oxidative potential, source apportionment, Riyadh, dust episodes

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Authors: Mekni Sabrine, Nouira Mariem

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Background and aim: Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation is a curative treatment for several hematological diseases; however, it has a non-negligible morbidity and mortality depending on several prognostic factors, including pre-transplant hyperferritinemia. The aim of our study was to estimate the impact of hyperferritinemia on survivals and on the occurrence of post-transplant complications. Methods: It was a longitudinal study conducted over 8 years and including all patients who had a first allograft. The impact of pretransplant hyperferritinemia (ferritinemia ≥1500) on survivals was studied using the Kaplan Meier method and the COX model for uni- and multivariate analysis. The Khi-deux test and binary logistic regression were used to study the association between pretransplant ferritinemia and post-transplant complications. Results: One hundred forty patients were included with an average age of 26.6 years and a sex ratio (M/F)=1.4. Hyperferritinemia was found in 33% of patients. It had no significant impact on either overall survival (p=0.9) or event -free survival (p=0.6). In multivariate analysis, only the type of disease was independently associated with overall survival (p=0.04) and event-free survival (p=0.002). For post-allograft complications: The occurrence of early documented infections was independently associated with pretransplant hyperferritinemia (p=0.02) and the presence of acute graft versus host disease( GVHD) (p<10-3). The occurrence of acute GVHD was associated with early documented infection (p=0.002) and Cytomegalovirus reactivation (p<10-3). The occurrence of chronic GVHD was associated with the presence of Cytomegalovirus reactivation (p=0.006) and graft source (p=0.009). Conclusion: Our study showed the significant impact of pre-transplant hyperferritinemia on the occurrence of early infections but not on survivals. Early and more accurate assessment iron overload by other tests such as liver magnetic resonance imaging with initiation of chelating treatment could prevent the occurrence of such complications after transplantation.

Keywords: allogeneic, transplants, ferritin, survival

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Authors: Strahinja Kovačević, Sanja Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Lidija Jevrić, Cristina Prandi, Piermichele Kobauri

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The present study is based on molecular modeling of a series of twelve 5-(4-substituent-phenoxy)-3-methylfuran-2(5H)-one derivatives which have potential of strigolactones mimics toward Striga hermonthica. The first step of the analysis included the calculation of molecular descriptors which numerically describe the structures of the analyzed compounds. The descriptors ALOGP (lipophilicity), AClogS (water solubility) and BBB (blood-brain barrier penetration), served as the input variables in multiple linear regression (MLR) modeling of germination activity toward S. hermonthica. Two MLR models were obtained. The first MLR model contains ALOGP and AClogS descriptors, while the second one is based on these two descriptors plus BBB descriptor. Despite the braking Topliss-Costello rule in the second MLR model, it has much better statistical and cross-validation characteristics than the first one. The ALOGP and AClogS descriptors are often very suitable predictors of the biological activity of many compounds. They are very important descriptors of the biological behavior and availability of a compound in any biological system (i.e. the ability to pass through the cell membranes). BBB descriptor defines the ability of a molecule to pass through the blood-brain barrier. Besides the lipophilicity of a compound, this descriptor carries the information of the molecular bulkiness (its value strongly depends on molecular bulkiness). According to the obtained results of MLR modeling, these three descriptors are considered as very good predictors of germination activity of the analyzed compounds toward S. hermonthica seeds. This article is based upon work from COST Action (FA1206), supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology).

Keywords: chemometrics, germination activity, molecular modeling, QSAR analysis, strigolactones

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Authors: Surya R. Niraula, Devendra B Chhetry, Girish K. Singh, S. Nagesh, Frederick A. Connell

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Background: Although random sampling is generally considered to be the gold standard for population-based research, the majority of drug abuse research is based on non-random sampling despite the well-known limitations of this kind of sampling. Method: We compared the statistical properties of two surveys of drug abuse in the same community: one using snowball sampling of drug users who then identified “friend controls” and the other using a random sample of non-drug users (controls) who then identified “friend cases.” Models to predict drug abuse based on risk factors were developed for each data set using conditional logistic regression. We compared the precision of each model using bootstrapping method and the predictive properties of each model using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. Results: Analysis of 100 random bootstrap samples drawn from the snowball-sample data set showed a wide variation in the standard errors of the beta coefficients of the predictive model, none of which achieved statistical significance. One the other hand, bootstrap analysis of the random-sample data set showed less variation, and did not change the significance of the predictors at the 5% level when compared to the non-bootstrap analysis. Comparison of the area under the ROC curves using the model derived from the random-sample data set was similar when fitted to either data set (0.93, for random-sample data vs. 0.91 for snowball-sample data, p=0.35); however, when the model derived from the snowball-sample data set was fitted to each of the data sets, the areas under the curve were significantly different (0.98 vs. 0.83, p < .001). Conclusion: The proposed method of random sampling of controls appears to be superior from a statistical perspective to snowball sampling and may represent a viable alternative to snowball sampling.

Keywords: drug abuse, matched case-control study, non-probability sampling, probability sampling

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Authors: P. Cinthuja, J. A. O. A Jayakody, M. P. M. Perera, W. V. D. N. Weerarathna, S.E. Nirosha, D. K. D. C. Indeewari, T. Kaethieswaran, S. B. Adikari

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The aims of the study was to measure physical fitness parameters of school badminton players in the Kandy district and determine the factors contributing to improve the physical fitness. Height, weight, handgrip was measured and sit and reach test, shoulder flexibility test, standing long jump test, 20m sprint speed test, agility T-test and 20 m multistage shuttle run test were performed on 183 school badminton players. Linear regression and correlation tests were performed using body mass index, practiced duration, age category, level of performance, additional sports involvement as independent variables and physical fitness parameter as dependent variables. Results: The present study showed that the upper body power, upper body strength and endurance and speed depended on body mass index both in male and female school badminton players. Speed, agility, flexibility of shoulders, explosive power of shoulder and aerobic endurance depended on the duration of practiced. Furthermore, involvement in additional sports other than badminton did not enhance the performance of badminton players. But it decreased player’s performance by decreasing agility and speed. Age had an effect on the upper body power, explosive power of lower limb, agility and speed both in both males and females. Conclusions: The performance of badminton players could be enhanced by maintaining a proper body mass index. Badminton specific parameter could be improved by increasing the duration of practiced. Involvement in other sports does not give an added advantage to badminton players to improve their performance.

Keywords: agility, Body Mass Index, endurance, badminton

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Authors: Niroshan K. Walgama Wellalage, Tieling Zhang, Richard Dwight

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State-based Markov deterioration models (SMDM) sometimes fail to find accurate transition probability matrix (TPM) values, and hence lead to invalid future condition prediction or incorrect average deterioration rates mainly due to drawbacks of existing nonlinear optimization-based algorithms and/or subjective function types used for regression analysis. Furthermore, a set of separate functions for each condition state with age cannot be directly derived by using Markov model for a given bridge element group, which however is of interest to industrial partners. This paper presents a new approach for generating Homogeneous SMDM model output, namely, the Modified Weibull approach, which consists of a set of appropriate functions to describe the percentage condition prediction of bridge elements in each state. These functions are combined with Bayesian approach and Metropolis Hasting Algorithm (MHA) based Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation technique for quantifying the uncertainty in model parameter estimates. In this study, factors contributing to rail bridge deterioration were identified. The inspection data for 1,000 Australian railway bridges over 15 years were reviewed and filtered accordingly based on the real operational experience. Network level deterioration model for a typical bridge element group was developed using the proposed Modified Weibull approach. The condition state predictions obtained from this method were validated using statistical hypothesis tests with a test data set. Results show that the proposed model is able to not only predict the conditions in network-level accurately but also capture the model uncertainties with given confidence interval.

Keywords: bridge deterioration modelling, modified weibull approach, MCMC, metropolis-hasting algorithm, bayesian approach, Markov deterioration models

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