Search results for: inverse Gaussian distribution
5370 Governance Token Distributions of Layer-One.X
Authors: P. Wongthongtham, K. Coutinho, A. MacCarthy
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Layer-One.X (L1X) blockchain provides the infrastructure layer, and decentralised applications can be created on the L1X infrastructure. L1X tokenomics are important and require a proportional balance between token distribution, nurturing user activity and engagement, and financial incentives. In this paper, we present research in progress on L1X tokenomics describing key concepts and implementations, including token velocity and value, incentive scheme, and broad distribution. Particularly the economic design of the native token of the L1X blockchain, called HeartBit (HB), is presented.Keywords: tokenisation, layer one blockchain, interoperability, token distribution, L1X blockchain
Procedia PDF Downloads 1085369 Analysis of Financial Time Series by Using Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Type Models
Authors: Md Al Masum Bhuiyan, Maria C. Mariani, Osei K. Tweneboah
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In the present work, we develop a technique for estimating the volatility of financial time series by using stochastic differential equation. Taking the daily closing prices from developed and emergent stock markets as the basis, we argue that the incorporation of stochastic volatility into the time-varying parameter estimation significantly improves the forecasting performance via Maximum Likelihood Estimation. While using the technique, we see the long-memory behavior of data sets and one-step-ahead-predicted log-volatility with ±2 standard errors despite the variation of the observed noise from a Normal mixture distribution, because the financial data studied is not fully Gaussian. Also, the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process followed in this work simulates well the financial time series, which aligns our estimation algorithm with large data sets due to the fact that this algorithm has good convergence properties.Keywords: financial time series, maximum likelihood estimation, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type models, stochastic volatility model
Procedia PDF Downloads 2345368 Method for Assessing Potential in Distribution Logistics
Authors: B. Groß, P. Fronia, P. Nyhuis
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In addition to the production, which is already frequently optimized, improving the distribution logistics also opens up tremendous potential for increasing an enterprise’s competitiveness. Here too though, numerous interactions need to be taken into account, enterprises thus need to be able to identify and weigh between different potentials for economically efficient optimizations. In order to be able to assess potentials, enterprises require a suitable method. This paper first briefly presents the need for this research before introducing the procedure that will be used to develop an appropriate method that not only considers interactions but is also quickly and easily implemented.Keywords: distribution logistics, evaluation of potential, methods, model
Procedia PDF Downloads 4925367 Interval Estimation for Rainfall Mean in Northeastern Thailand
Authors: Nitaya Buntao
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This paper considers the problems of interval estimation for rainfall mean of the lognormal distribution and the delta-lognormal distribution in Northeastern Thailand. We present here the modified generalized pivotal approach (MGPA) compared to the modified method of variance estimates recovery (MMOVER). The performance of each method is examined in term of coverage probabilities and average lengths by Monte Carlo simulation. An extensive simulation study indicates that the MMOVER performs better than the MGPA approach in terms of the coverage probability; it results in highly accurate coverage probability.Keywords: rainfall mean, interval estimation, lognormal distribution, delta-lognormal distribution
Procedia PDF Downloads 4515366 Frequency- and Content-Based Tag Cloud Font Distribution Algorithm
Authors: Ágnes Bogárdi-Mészöly, Takeshi Hashimoto, Shohei Yokoyama, Hiroshi Ishikawa
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The spread of Web 2.0 has caused user-generated content explosion. Users can tag resources to describe and organize them. Tag clouds provide rough impression of relative importance of each tag within overall cloud in order to facilitate browsing among numerous tags and resources. The goal of our paper is to enrich visualization of tag clouds. A font distribution algorithm has been proposed to calculate a novel metric based on frequency and content, and to classify among classes from this metric based on power law distribution and percentages. The suggested algorithm has been validated and verified on the tag cloud of a real-world thesis portal.Keywords: tag cloud, font distribution algorithm, frequency-based, content-based, power law
Procedia PDF Downloads 5005365 Statistical Characteristics of Distribution of Radiation-Induced Defects under Random Generation
Authors: P. Selyshchev
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We consider fluctuations of defects density taking into account their interaction. Stochastic field of displacement generation rate gives random defect distribution. We determinate statistical characteristics (mean and dispersion) of random field of point defect distribution as function of defect generation parameters, temperature and properties of irradiated crystal.Keywords: irradiation, primary defects, interaction, fluctuations
Procedia PDF Downloads 3355364 Kinematic Hardening Parameters Identification with Respect to Objective Function
Authors: Marina Franulovic, Robert Basan, Bozidar Krizan
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Constitutive modelling of material behaviour is becoming increasingly important in prediction of possible failures in highly loaded engineering components, and consequently, optimization of their design. In order to account for large number of phenomena that occur in the material during operation, such as kinematic hardening effect in low cycle fatigue behaviour of steels, complex nonlinear material models are used ever more frequently, despite of the complexity of determination of their parameters. As a method for the determination of these parameters, genetic algorithm is good choice because of its capability to provide very good approximation of the solution in systems with large number of unknown variables. For the application of genetic algorithm to parameter identification, inverse analysis must be primarily defined. It is used as a tool to fine-tune calculated stress-strain values with experimental ones. In order to choose proper objective function for inverse analysis among already existent and newly developed functions, the research is performed to investigate its influence on material behaviour modelling.Keywords: genetic algorithm, kinematic hardening, material model, objective function
Procedia PDF Downloads 3255363 A Simulation Model to Analyze the Impact of Virtual Responsiveness in an E-Commerce Supply Chain
Authors: T. Godwin
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The design of a supply chain always entails the trade-off between responsiveness and efficiency. The launch of e-commerce has not only changed the way of shopping but also altered the supply chain design while trading off efficiency with responsiveness. A concept called ‘virtual responsiveness’ is introduced in the context of e-commerce supply chain. A simulation model is developed to compare actual responsiveness and virtual responsiveness to the customer in an e-commerce supply chain. The simulation is restricted to the movement of goods from the e-tailer to the customer. Customer demand follows a statistical distribution and is generated using inverse transformation technique. The two responsiveness schemes of the supply chain are compared in terms of the minimum number of inventory required at the e-tailer to fulfill the orders. Computational results show the savings achieved through virtual responsiveness. The insights gained from this study could be used to redesign e-commerce supply chain by incorporating virtual responsiveness. A part of the achieved cost savings could be passed back to the customer, thereby making the supply chain both effective and competitive.Keywords: e-commerce, simulation modeling, supply chain, virtual responsiveness
Procedia PDF Downloads 3385362 Optimal Capacitor Placement in Distribution Systems
Authors: Sana Ansari, Sirus Mohammadi
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In distribution systems, shunt capacitors are used to reduce power losses, to improve voltage profile, and to increase the maximum flow through cables and transformers. This paper presents a new method to determine the optimal locations and economical sizing of fixed and/or switched shunt capacitors with a view to power losses reduction and voltage stability enhancement. General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) has been used to solve the maximization modules using the MINOS optimization software with Linear Programming (LP). The proposed method is tested on 33 node distribution system and the results show that the algorithm suitable for practical implementation on real systems with any size.Keywords: power losses, voltage stability, radial distribution systems, capacitor
Procedia PDF Downloads 6415361 Intelligent Minimal Allocation of Capacitors in Distribution Networks Using Genetic Algorithm
Authors: S. Neelima, P. S. Subramanyam
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A distribution system is an interface between the bulk power system and the consumers. Among these systems, radial distributions system is popular because of low cost and simple design. In distribution systems, the voltages at buses reduces when moved away from the substation, also the losses are high. The reason for a decrease in voltage and high losses is the insufficient amount of reactive power, which can be provided by the shunt capacitors. But the placement of the capacitor with an appropriate size is always a challenge. Thus, the optimal capacitor placement problem is to determine the location and size of capacitors to be placed in distribution networks in an efficient way to reduce the power losses and improve the voltage profile of the system. For this purpose, in this paper, two stage methodologies are used. In the first stage, the load flow of pre-compensated distribution system is carried out using ‘dimension reducing distribution load flow algorithm (DRDLFA)’. On the basis of this load flow the potential locations of compensation are computed. In the second stage, Genetic Algorithm (GA) technique is used to determine the optimal location and size of the capacitors such that the cost of the energy loss and capacitor cost to be a minimum. The above method is tested on IEEE 9 and 34 bus system and compared with other methods in the literature.Keywords: dimension reducing distribution load flow algorithm, DRDLFA, genetic algorithm, electrical distribution network, optimal capacitors placement, voltage profile improvement, loss reduction
Procedia PDF Downloads 3855360 The Effect of Soil Surface Slope on Splash Distribution under Water Drop Impact
Authors: H. Aissa, L. Mouzai, M. Bouhadef
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The effects of down slope steepness on soil splash distribution under a water drop impact have been investigated in this study. The equipment used are the burette to simulate a water drop, a splash cup filled with sandy soil which forms the source area and a splash board to collect the ejected particles. The results found in this study have shown that the apparent mass increased with increasing downslope angle following a linear regression equation with high coefficient of determination. In the same way, the radial soil splash distribution over the distance has been analyzed statistically, and an exponential function was the best fit of the relationship for the different slope angles. The curves and the regressions equations validate the well known FSDF and extend the theory of Van Dijk.Keywords: splash distribution, water drop, slope steepness, soil detachment
Procedia PDF Downloads 3305359 Contribution of Intermediate Diaphragms on LDFs of Straight and Skew Concrete Multicell Box-Girder Bridges
Authors: Iman Mohseni
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Current studies indicate that neglecting the effect of intermediate diaphragms might lead to highly conservative values for bending moment distribution factors and result in non-economic designs for skew bridges. This paper reports on a parametric study performed on 160 prototypes of straight and skew concrete multicell box-girder bridges. The obtained results were used to develop practical expressions to account for the diaphragm effects on American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials formulas for live load distribution factors. It was observed that decks with internal transverse diaphragms perpendicular to the longitudinal webs are the best arrangement for load distribution in skew bridges.Keywords: box bridges, truck, distribution factor, diaphragm
Procedia PDF Downloads 3705358 Parameter Estimation of Gumbel Distribution with Maximum-Likelihood Based on Broyden Fletcher Goldfarb Shanno Quasi-Newton
Authors: Dewi Retno Sari Saputro, Purnami Widyaningsih, Hendrika Handayani
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Extreme data on an observation can occur due to unusual circumstances in the observation. The data can provide important information that can’t be provided by other data so that its existence needs to be further investigated. The method for obtaining extreme data is one of them using maxima block method. The distribution of extreme data sets taken with the maxima block method is called the distribution of extreme values. Distribution of extreme values is Gumbel distribution with two parameters. The parameter estimation of Gumbel distribution with maximum likelihood method (ML) is difficult to determine its exact value so that it is necessary to solve the approach. The purpose of this study was to determine the parameter estimation of Gumbel distribution with quasi-Newton BFGS method. The quasi-Newton BFGS method is a numerical method used for nonlinear function optimization without constraint so that the method can be used for parameter estimation from Gumbel distribution whose distribution function is in the form of exponential doubel function. The quasi-New BFGS method is a development of the Newton method. The Newton method uses the second derivative to calculate the parameter value changes on each iteration. Newton's method is then modified with the addition of a step length to provide a guarantee of convergence when the second derivative requires complex calculations. In the quasi-Newton BFGS method, Newton's method is modified by updating both derivatives on each iteration. The parameter estimation of the Gumbel distribution by a numerical approach using the quasi-Newton BFGS method is done by calculating the parameter values that make the distribution function maximum. In this method, we need gradient vector and hessian matrix. This research is a theory research and application by studying several journals and textbooks. The results of this study obtained the quasi-Newton BFGS algorithm and estimation of Gumbel distribution parameters. The estimation method is then applied to daily rainfall data in Purworejo District to estimate the distribution parameters. This indicates that the high rainfall that occurred in Purworejo District decreased its intensity and the range of rainfall that occurred decreased.Keywords: parameter estimation, Gumbel distribution, maximum likelihood, broyden fletcher goldfarb shanno (BFGS)quasi newton
Procedia PDF Downloads 3185357 Special Case of Trip Distribution Model and Its Use for Estimation of Detailed Transport Demand in the Czech Republic
Authors: Jiri Dufek
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The national model of the Czech Republic has been modified in a detailed way to get detailed travel demand in the municipality level (cities, villages over 300 inhabitants). As a technique for this detailed modelling, three-dimensional procedure for calibrating gravity models, was used. Besides of zone production and attraction, which is usual in gravity models, the next additional parameter for trip distribution was introduced. Usually it is called by “third dimension”. In the model, this parameter is a demand between regions. The distribution procedure involved calculation of appropriate skim matrices and its multiplication by three coefficients obtained by iterative balancing of production, attraction and third dimension. This type of trip distribution was processed in R-project and the results were used in the Czech Republic transport model, created in PTV Vision. This process generated more precise results in local level od the model (towns, villages)Keywords: trip distribution, three dimension, transport model, municipalities
Procedia PDF Downloads 1215356 Protection Plan of Medium Voltage Distribution Network in Tunisia
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The distribution networks are often exposed to harmful incidents which can halt the electricity supply of the customer. In this context, we studied a real case of a critical zone of the Tunisian network which is currently characterized by the dysfunction of its plan of protection. In this paper, we were interested in the harmonization of the protection plan settings in order to ensure a perfect selectivity and a better continuity of service on the whole of the network.Keywords: distribution network Gabes-Tunisia, continuity of service, protection plan settings, selectivity
Procedia PDF Downloads 5065355 Study of Seismic Damage Reinforced Concrete Frames in Variable Height with Logistic Statistic Function Distribution
Authors: P. Zarfam, M. Mansouri Baghbaderani
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In seismic design, the proper reaction to the earthquake and the correct and accurate prediction of its subsequent effects on the structure are critical. Choose a proper probability distribution, which gives a more realistic probability of the structure's damage rate, is essential in damage discussions. With the development of design based on performance, analytical method of modal push over as an inexpensive, efficacious, and quick one in the estimation of the structures' seismic response is broadly used in engineering contexts. In this research three concrete frames of 3, 6, and 13 stories are analyzed in non-linear modal push over by 30 different earthquake records by OpenSEES software, then the detriment indexes of roof's displacement and relative displacement ratio of the stories are calculated by two parameters: peak ground acceleration and spectra acceleration. These indexes are used to establish the value of damage relations with log-normal distribution and logistics distribution. Finally the value of these relations is compared and the effect of height on the mentioned damage relations is studied, too.Keywords: modal pushover analysis, concrete structure, seismic damage, log-normal distribution, logistic distribution
Procedia PDF Downloads 2425354 Ship Detection Requirements Analysis for Different Sea States: Validation on Real SAR Data
Authors: Jaime Martín-de-Nicolás, David Mata-Moya, Nerea del-Rey-Maestre, Pedro Gómez-del-Hoyo, María-Pilar Jarabo-Amores
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Ship detection is nowadays quite an important issue in tasks related to sea traffic control, fishery management and ship search and rescue. Although it has traditionally been carried out by patrol ships or aircrafts, coverage and weather conditions and sea state can become a problem. Synthetic aperture radars can surpass these coverage limitations and work under any climatological condition. A fast CFAR ship detector based on a robust statistical modeling of sea clutter with respect to sea states in SAR images is used. In this paper, the minimum SNR required to obtain a given detection probability with a given false alarm rate for any sea state is determined. A Gaussian target model using real SAR data is considered. Results show that SNR does not depend heavily on the class considered. Provided there is some variation in the backscattering of targets in SAR imagery, the detection probability is limited and a post-processing stage based on morphology would be suitable.Keywords: SAR, generalized gamma distribution, detection curves, radar detection
Procedia PDF Downloads 4475353 Intrusion Detection System Using Linear Discriminant Analysis
Authors: Zyad Elkhadir, Khalid Chougdali, Mohammed Benattou
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Most of the existing intrusion detection systems works on quantitative network traffic data with many irrelevant and redundant features, which makes detection process more time’s consuming and inaccurate. A several feature extraction methods, such as linear discriminant analysis (LDA), have been proposed. However, LDA suffers from the small sample size (SSS) problem which occurs when the number of the training samples is small compared with the samples dimension. Hence, classical LDA cannot be applied directly for high dimensional data such as network traffic data. In this paper, we propose two solutions to solve SSS problem for LDA and apply them to a network IDS. The first method, reduce the original dimension data using principal component analysis (PCA) and then apply LDA. In the second solution, we propose to use the pseudo inverse to avoid singularity of within-class scatter matrix due to SSS problem. After that, the KNN algorithm is used for classification process. We have chosen two known datasets KDDcup99 and NSLKDD for testing the proposed approaches. Results showed that the classification accuracy of (PCA+LDA) method outperforms clearly the pseudo inverse LDA method when we have large training data.Keywords: LDA, Pseudoinverse, PCA, IDS, NSL-KDD, KDDcup99
Procedia PDF Downloads 2215352 Normalized P-Laplacian: From Stochastic Game to Image Processing
Authors: Abderrahim Elmoataz
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More and more contemporary applications involve data in the form of functions defined on irregular and topologically complicated domains (images, meshs, points clouds, networks, etc). Such data are not organized as familiar digital signals and images sampled on regular lattices. However, they can be conveniently represented as graphs where each vertex represents measured data and each edge represents a relationship (connectivity or certain affinities or interaction) between two vertices. Processing and analyzing these types of data is a major challenge for both image and machine learning communities. Hence, it is very important to transfer to graphs and networks many of the mathematical tools which were initially developed on usual Euclidean spaces and proven to be efficient for many inverse problems and applications dealing with usual image and signal domains. Historically, the main tools for the study of graphs or networks come from combinatorial and graph theory. In recent years there has been an increasing interest in the investigation of one of the major mathematical tools for signal and image analysis, which are Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) variational methods on graphs. The normalized p-laplacian operator has been recently introduced to model a stochastic game called tug-of-war-game with noise. Part interest of this class of operators arises from the fact that it includes, as particular case, the infinity Laplacian, the mean curvature operator and the traditionnal Laplacian operators which was extensiveley used to models and to solve problems in image processing. The purpose of this paper is to introduce and to study a new class of normalized p-Laplacian on graphs. The introduction is based on the extension of p-harmonious function introduced in as discrete approximation for both infinity Laplacian and p-Laplacian equations. Finally, we propose to use these operators as a framework for solving many inverse problems in image processing.Keywords: normalized p-laplacian, image processing, stochastic game, inverse problems
Procedia PDF Downloads 5065351 Moment Estimators of the Parameters of Zero-One Inflated Negative Binomial Distribution
Authors: Rafid Saeed Abdulrazak Alshkaki
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In this paper, zero-one inflated negative binomial distribution is considered, along with some of its structural properties, then its parameters were estimated using the method of moments. It is found that the method of moments to estimate the parameters of the zero-one inflated negative binomial models is not a proper method and may give incorrect conclusions.Keywords: zero one inflated models, negative binomial distribution, moments estimator, non negative integer sampling
Procedia PDF Downloads 2855350 SPICE Modeling for Evaluation of Distribution System Reliability Indices
Authors: G. N. Srinivas, K. Raju
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This paper presents Markov processes for determining the reliability indices of distribution system. The continuous Markov modeling is applied to a complex radial distribution system and electrical equivalent circuits are developed for the modeling. In general PSPICE is being used for electrical and electronic circuits and various applications of power system like fault analysis, transient analysis etc. In this paper, the SPICE modeling equivalent circuits which are developed are applied in a novel way to Distribution System reliability analysis. These circuits are simulated using PSPICE software to obtain the state probabilities, the basic and performance indices. Thus the basic indices and the performance indices obtained by this method are compared with those obtained by FMEA technique. The application of the concepts presented in this paper are illustrated and analyzed for IEEE-Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS).Keywords: distribution system, Markov Model, reliability indices, spice simulation
Procedia PDF Downloads 5315349 Temperature Distribution in Friction Stir Welding Using Finite Element Method
Authors: Armansyah, I. P. Almanar, M. Saiful Bahari Shaari, M. Shamil Jaffarullah, Nur’amirah Busu, M. Arif Fadzleen Zainal Abidin, M. Amlie A. Kasim
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Temperature distribution in Friction Stir Welding (FSW) of 6061-T6 Aluminum Alloy is modeled using the Finite Element Method (FEM). In order to obtain temperature distribution in the welded aluminum plates during welding operation, transient thermal finite element analyses are performed. Heat input from tool shoulder and tool pin are considered in the model. A moving heat source with a heat distribution simulating the heat generated by frictions between tool shoulder and workpiece is used in the analysis. Three-dimensional model for simulated process is carried out by using Altair HyperWork, a commercially available software. Transient thermal finite element analyses are performed in order to obtain the temperature distribution in the welded Aluminum plates during welding operation. The developed model was then used to show the effect of various input parameters such as total rate of welding speed and rotational speed on temperature distribution in the workpiece.Keywords: frictions stir welding, temperature distribution, finite element method, altair hyperwork
Procedia PDF Downloads 5365348 Statistical Optimization of Distribution Coefficient for Reactive Extraction of Lactic Acid Using Tri-n-octyl Amine in Oleyl Alcohol and n-Hexane
Authors: Avinash Thakur, Parmjit S. Panesar, Manohar Singh
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The distribution coefficient, KD for the reactive extraction of lactic acid from aqueous solutions of lactic acid using 10-30% (v/v) tri-n-octyl amine (extractant) dissolved in n-hexane (inert diluent) and 20% (v/v) oleyl alcohol (modifier) was optimized by using response surface methodology (RSM). A three level Box-Behnken design was employed for experimental design, analysis of the results and to depict the combined interactive effect of seven independent variables, viz lactic acid concentration (cl), pH, TOA concentration in organic phase (ψ), treat ratio (φ), temperature (T), agitation speed (ω) and batch agitation time (τ) on distribution coefficient of lactic acid. The regression analysis recommended that the quadratic model is significant (R2 and adjusted R2 are 98.72 % and 98.69 % respectively) for analysis. A numerical optimization had resulted in maximum lactic acid distribution coefficient (KD) of 3.16 at the optimized values for test variables, cl, pH, ψ, φ, T, ω and τ as 0.15 [M], 3.0, 22.75% (v/v), 1.0 (v/v), 26°C, 145 rpm and 23 min respectively. A good agreement between the predicted and experimentally obtained values for distribution coefficient using the optimized conditions was exhibited.Keywords: Distribution coefficient, tri-n-octylamine, lactic acid, response surface methodology
Procedia PDF Downloads 4505347 Analysis of the Spatial Distribution of Public Girls’ and Boys’ Secondary Schools in Riyadh
Authors: Nasser Marshad Alzeer
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This study examines the spatial distribution of secondary schools in Riyadh. It considers both public girls and boys sector provision and assesses the efficiency of the spatial distribution of secondary schools. Since the establishment of the Ministry of Education (MOE) in 1953 and General Presidency for Female Education, (GPFE) in 1960, there has been a great expansion of education services in Saudi Arabia, particularly during the 1980s. However, recent years have seen much slower rates of increase in the public education sector but the population continues to grow rapidly. This study investigates the spatial distribution of schools through the use of questionnaire surveys and applied GIS. Overall, the results indicate a shortage of public secondary schools, especially in the north of the city. It is clear that there is overcrowding in the majority of secondary schools. The establishment of new schools has been suggested to solve the problem of overcrowding. A number of socio-economic and demographic factors are associated with differences in the utilization of the public secondary schools. A GIS was applied in this study in order to assess the spatial distribution of secondary schools including the modification of existing catchment area boundaries and locating new schools. This modification could also reduce the pupil pressure on certain schools and further benefits could probably be gained.Keywords: analysis, distribution, Saudi, GIS, schools
Procedia PDF Downloads 5475346 Global Historical Distribution Range of Brown Bear (Ursus Arctos)
Authors: Tariq Mahmood, Faiza Lehrasab, Faraz Akrim, Muhammad Sajid nadeem, Muhammad Mushtaq, Unza waqar, Ayesha Sheraz, Shaista Andleeb
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Brown bear (Ursus arctos), a member of the family Ursidae, is distributed in a wide range of habitats in North America, Europe and Asia. Suspectedly, the global distribution range of brown bears is decreasing at the moment due to various factors. The carnivore species is categorized as ‘Least Concern’ globally by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. However, there are some fragmented, small populations that are on the verge of extinction, as is in Pakistan, where the species is listed as ‘Critically Endangered’, with a declining population trend. Importantly, the global historical distribution range of brown bears is undocumented. Therefore, in the current study, we reconstructed and estimated the historical distribution range of brown bears using QGIS software and also analyzed the network of protected areas in the past and current ranges of the species. Results showed that brown bear was more widely distributed in historic times, encompassing 52.6 million km² area as compared to their current distribution of 38.8 million km², resulting in a total range contraction of up to approximately 28 %. In the past, a total of N = 62,234 protected Areas, covering approximately 3.89 million km² were present in the distribution range of the species, while now a total of N= 33,313 Protected Areas, covering approximately 2.75 million km² area, are present in the current distribution range of the brown bear. The brown bear distribution range in the protected areas has also contracted by 1.15 million km² and the total percentage reduction of PAs is 29%.Keywords: brown bear, historic distribution, range contraction, protected areas
Procedia PDF Downloads 425345 Scour Damaged Detection of Bridge Piers Using Vibration Analysis - Numerical Study of a Bridge
Authors: Solaine Hachem, Frédéric Bourquin, Dominique Siegert
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The brutal collapse of bridges is mainly due to scour. Indeed, the soil erosion in the riverbed around a pier modifies the embedding conditions of the structure, reduces its overall stiffness and threatens its stability. Hence, finding an efficient technique that allows early scour detection becomes mandatory. Vibration analysis is an indirect method for scour detection that relies on real-time monitoring of the bridge. It tends to indicate the presence of a scour based on its consequences on the stability of the structure and its dynamic response. Most of the research in this field has focused on the dynamic behavior of a single pile and has examined the depth of the scour. In this paper, a bridge is fully modeled with all piles and spans and the scour is represented by a reduction in the foundation's stiffnesses. This work aims to identify the vibration modes sensitive to the rigidity’s loss in the foundations so that their variations can be considered as a scour indicator: the decrease in soil-structure interaction rigidity leads to a decrease in the natural frequencies’ values. By using the first-order perturbation method, the expression of sensitivity, which depends only on the selected vibration modes, is established to determine the deficiency of foundations stiffnesses. The solutions are obtained by using the singular value decomposition method for the regularization of the inverse problem. The propagation of uncertainties is also calculated to verify the efficiency of the inverse problem method. Numerical simulations describing different scenarios of scour are investigated on a simplified model of a real composite steel-concrete bridge located in France. The results of the modal analysis show that the modes corresponding to in-plane and out-of-plane piers vibrations are sensitive to the loss of foundation stiffness. While the deck bending modes are not affected by this damage.Keywords: bridge’s piers, inverse problems, modal sensitivity, scour detection, vibration analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 975344 A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Techniques for PM10 Forecasting in Vilnius
Authors: Mina Adel Shokry Fahim, Jūratė Sužiedelytė Visockienė
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With the growing concern over air pollution (AP), it is clear that this has gained more prominence than ever before. The level of consciousness has increased and a sense of knowledge now has to be forwarded as a duty by those enlightened enough to disseminate it to others. This realisation often comes after an understanding of how poor air quality indices (AQI) damage human health. The study focuses on assessing air pollution prediction models specifically for Lithuania, addressing a substantial need for empirical research within the region. Concentrating on Vilnius, it specifically examines particulate matter concentrations 10 micrometers or less in diameter (PM10). Utilizing Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and Regression Tree Ensemble, and Regression Tree methodologies, predictive forecasting models are validated and tested using hourly data from January 2020 to December 2022. The study explores the classification of AP data into anthropogenic and natural sources, the impact of AP on human health, and its connection to cardiovascular diseases. The study revealed varying levels of accuracy among the models, with GPR achieving the highest accuracy, indicated by an RMSE of 4.14 in validation and 3.89 in testing.Keywords: air pollution, anthropogenic and natural sources, machine learning, Gaussian process regression, tree ensemble, forecasting models, particulate matter
Procedia PDF Downloads 475343 A Leader-Follower Kinematic-Based Control System for a Cable-Driven Hyper-Redundant Manipulator
Authors: Abolfazl Zaraki, Yoshikatsu Hayashi, Harry Thorpe, Vincent Strong, Gisle-Andre Larsen, William Holderbaum
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Thanks to the high maneuverability of the cable-driven hyper-redundant manipulators (HRMs), this class of robots has shown a superior capability in highly confined and unstructured space applications. Although the large number of degrees of freedom (DOF) of HRMs enhances the motion flexibility and the robot’s reachability range, it highly increases the complexity of the kinematic configuration which makes the kinematic control problem very challenging or even impossible to solve. This paper presents our current progress achieved on the development of a kinematic-based leader-follower control system which is designed to control not only the robot’s body posture but also to control the trajectory of the robot’s movement in a semi-autonomous manner (the human operator is retained in the robot’s control loop). To obtain the forward kinematic model, the coordinate frames are established by the classical Denavit–Hartenburg (D-H) convention for a hyper-redundant serial manipulator which has a controlled cables-driven mechanism. To solve the inverse kinematics of the robot, unlike the conventional methods, a leader-follower mechanism, based on the sequential inverse kinematic, is followed. Using this mechanism, the inverse kinematic problem is solved for all sequential joints starting from the head joint to the base joint of the robot. To verify the kinematic design and simulate the robot motion, the MATLAB robotic toolbox is used. The simulation result demonstrated the promising capability of the proposed leader-follower control system in controlling the robot motion and trajectory in our confined space application.Keywords: hyper-redundant robots, kinematic analysis, semi-autonomous control, serial manipulators
Procedia PDF Downloads 1535342 Determination of the Best Fit Probability Distribution for Annual Rainfall in Karkheh River at Iran
Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi
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This study was designed to find the best-fit probability distribution of annual rainfall based on 50 years sample (1966-2015) in the Karkheh river basin at Iran using six probability distributions: Normal, 2-Parameter Log Normal, 3-Parameter Log Normal, Pearson Type 3, Log Pearson Type 3 and Gumbel distribution. The best fit probability distribution was selected using Stormwater Management and Design Aid (SMADA) software and based on the Residual Sum of Squares (R.S.S) between observed and estimated values Based on the R.S.S values of fit tests, the Log Pearson Type 3 and then Pearson Type 3 distributions were found to be the best-fit probability distribution at the Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal rainfall gauging station. The annual values of expected rainfall were calculated using the best fit probability distributions and can be used by hydrologists and design engineers in future research at studied region and other region in the world.Keywords: Log Pearson Type 3, SMADA, rainfall, Karkheh River
Procedia PDF Downloads 1875341 Residual Lifetime Estimation for Weibull Distribution by Fusing Expert Judgements and Censored Data
Authors: Xiang Jia, Zhijun Cheng
Abstract:
The residual lifetime of a product is the operation time between the current time and the time point when the failure happens. The residual lifetime estimation is rather important in reliability analysis. To predict the residual lifetime, it is necessary to assume or verify a particular distribution that the lifetime of the product follows. And the two-parameter Weibull distribution is frequently adopted to describe the lifetime in reliability engineering. Due to the time constraint and cost reduction, a life testing experiment is usually terminated before all the units have failed. Then the censored data is usually collected. In addition, other information could also be obtained for reliability analysis. The expert judgements are considered as it is common that the experts could present some useful information concerning the reliability. Therefore, the residual lifetime is estimated for Weibull distribution by fusing the censored data and expert judgements in this paper. First, the closed-forms concerning the point estimate and confidence interval for the residual lifetime under the Weibull distribution are both presented. Next, the expert judgements are regarded as the prior information and how to determine the prior distribution of Weibull parameters is developed. For completeness, the cases that there is only one, and there are more than two expert judgements are both focused on. Further, the posterior distribution of Weibull parameters is derived. Considering that it is difficult to derive the posterior distribution of residual lifetime, a sample-based method is proposed to generate the posterior samples of Weibull parameters based on the Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) method. And these samples are used to obtain the Bayes estimation and credible interval for the residual lifetime. Finally, an illustrative example is discussed to show the application. It demonstrates that the proposed method is rather simple, satisfactory, and robust.Keywords: expert judgements, information fusion, residual lifetime, Weibull distribution
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