Search results for: endogenous switching regression model

Authors: Cihan Çetinkaya, Eren Özceylan, Kerem Elibal

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This paper presents a solution method for selection of production facility. The motivation has been taken from a real life case, an automotive subcontractor which has two production facilities at different cities and parts. The problem is to decide which part(s) should be produced at which facility. To the best of our knowledge, until this study, there was no scientific approach about this problem at the firm and decisions were being given intuitively. In this study, some logistic cost parameters have been defined and with these parameters a mathematical model has been constructed. Defined and collected cost parameters are handling cost of parts, shipment cost of parts and shipment cost of welding fixtures. Constructed multi-objective mathematical model aims to minimize these costs while aims to balance the workload between two locations. Results showed that defined model can give optimum solutions in reasonable computing times. Also, this result gave encouragement to develop the model with addition of new logistic cost parameters.

Keywords: automotive subcontract, facility assignment, logistic costs, multi-objective models

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Authors: Natalia Efremova, Sergey Tarasenko

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We propose a novel neural network architecture for visual saliency detections, which utilizes neuro physiologically plausible mechanisms for extraction of salient regions. The model has been significantly inspired by recent findings from neuro physiology and aimed to simulate the bottom-up processes of human selective attention. Two types of features were analyzed: color and direction of maximum variance. The mechanism we employ for processing those features is PCA, implemented by means of normalized Hebbian learning and the waves of spikes. To evaluate performance of our model we have conducted psychological experiment. Comparison of simulation results with those of experiment indicates good performance of our model.

Keywords: neural network models, visual saliency detection, normalized Hebbian learning, Oja's rule, psychological experiment

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Authors: Supasak Ngaoprasertwong

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The purpose of this research was to develop a model for Muay Thai competition management for promoting sport tourism in the next decade. Moreover, the model was appropriately initiated for practical use. This study also combined several methodologies, both quantitative research and qualitative research, to entirely cover all aspects of data, especially the tourists’ satisfaction toward Muay Thai competition. The data were collected from 400 tourists watching Muay Thai competition in 4 stadiums to create the model for Muay Thai competition to support the sport tourism in the next decade. Besides, Ethnographic Delphi Futures Research (EDFR) was applied to gather the data from certain experts in boxing industry or having significant role in Muay Thai competition in both public sector and private sector. The first step of data collection was an in-depth interview with 27 experts associated with Muay Thai competition, Muay Thai management, and tourism. The second step and the third step of data collection were conducted to confirm the experts’ opinions toward various elements. When the 3 steps of data collection were completely accomplished, all data were assembled to draft the model. Then the model was proposed to 8 experts to conduct a brainstorming to affirm it. According to the results of quantitative research, it found that the tourists were satisfied with personnel of competition at high level (x=3.87), followed by facilities, services, and safe high level (x=3.67). Furthermore, they were satisfied with operation in competition field at high level (x=3.62).Regarding the qualitative methodology including literature review, theories, concepts and analysis of qualitative research development of the model for Muay Thai competition to promote the sport tourism in the next decade, the findings indicated that there were 2 data sets as follows: The first one was related to Muay Thai competition to encourage the sport tourism and the second one was associated with Muay Thai stadium management to support the sport tourism. After the brain storming, “EE Muay Thai Model” was finally developed for promoting the sport tourism in the next decade (2015-2024).

Keywords: Muay Thai competition management, Muay Thai sport tourism, Muay Thai, Muay Thai for sport tourism management

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Authors: Teklay Tesfay, Gebreyesus Brhane Tesfahunegn, Abadi Berhane, Selemawit Girmay

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Adjusting the proper sowing date of a crop at a particular location with a changing climate is an essential management option to maximize crop yield. However, determining the optimum sowing date for rainfed maize production through field experimentation requires repeated trials for many years in different weather conditions and crop management. To avoid such long-term experimentation to determine the optimum sowing date, crop models such as AquaCrop are useful. Therefore, the overall objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of AquaCrop model in simulating maize productivity under varying sowing dates. A field experiment was conducted for two consecutive cropping seasons by deploying four maize seed sowing dates in a randomized complete block design with three replications. Input data required to run this model are stored as climate, crop, soil, and management files in the AquaCrop database and adjusted through the user interface. Observed data from separate field experiments was used to calibrate and validate the model. AquaCrop model was validated for its performance in simulating the green canopy and aboveground biomass of maize for the varying sowing dates based on the calibrated parameters. Results of the present study showed that there was a good agreement (an overall R2 =, Ef= d= RMSE =) between measured and simulated values of the canopy cover and biomass yields. Considering the overall values of the statistical test indicators, the performance of the model to predict maize growth and biomass yield was successful, and so this is a valuable tool help for decision-making. Hence, this calibrated and validated model is suggested to use for determining optimum maize crop sowing date for similar climate and soil conditions to the study area, instead of conducting long-term experimentation.

Keywords: AquaCrop model, calibration, validation, simulation

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Authors: Jonathan Martino, Kristof Harri

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In some cases, the increase in computing resources makes simulation methods more affordable. The increase in processing speed also allows real time analysis or even more rapid tests analysis offering a real tool for test prediction and design process optimization. Vibration tests are no exception to this trend. The so called ‘Virtual Vibration Testing’ offers solution among others to study the influence of specific loads, to better anticipate the boundary conditions between the exciter and the structure under test, to study the influence of small changes in the structure under test, etc. This article will first present a virtual vibration test modeling with a main focus on the shaker model and will afterwards present the experimental parameters determination. The classical way of modeling a shaker is to consider the shaker as a simple mechanical structure augmented by an electrical circuit that makes the shaker move. The shaker is modeled as a two or three degrees of freedom lumped parameters model while the electrical circuit takes the coil impedance and the dynamic back-electromagnetic force into account. The establishment of the equations of this model, describing the dynamics of the shaker, is presented in this article and is strongly related to the internal physical quantities of the shaker. Those quantities will be reduced into global parameters which will be estimated through experiments. Different experiments will be carried out in order to design an easy and practical method for the identification of the shaker parameters leading to a fully functional shaker model. An experimental modal analysis will also be carried out to extract the modal parameters of the shaker and to combine them with the electrical measurements. Finally, this article will conclude with an experimental validation of the model.

Keywords: lumped parameters model, shaker modeling, shaker parameters, state-space, virtual vibration

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Authors: Peifei Zhu, Zisheng Li, Yasuki Kakishita, Mayumi Suzuki, Tomoaki Chono

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Segmentation of left ventricle (LV) from cardiac ultrasound images provides a quantitative functional analysis of the heart to diagnose disease. Active Shape Model (ASM) is a widely used approach for LV segmentation but suffers from the drawback that initialization of the shape model is not sufficiently close to the target, especially when dealing with abnormal shapes in disease. In this work, a two-step framework is proposed to improve the accuracy and speed of the model-based segmentation. Firstly, a robust and efficient detector based on Hough forest is proposed to localize cardiac feature points, and such points are used to predict the initial fitting of the LV shape model. Secondly, to achieve more accurate and detailed segmentation, ASM is applied to further fit the LV shape model to the cardiac ultrasound image. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated on a dataset of 800 cardiac ultrasound images that are mostly of abnormal shapes. The proposed method is compared to several combinations of ASM and existing initialization methods. The experiment results demonstrate that the accuracy of feature point detection for initialization was improved by 40% compared to the existing methods. Moreover, the proposed method significantly reduces the number of necessary ASM fitting loops, thus speeding up the whole segmentation process. Therefore, the proposed method is able to achieve more accurate and efficient segmentation results and is applicable to unusual shapes of heart with cardiac diseases, such as left atrial enlargement.

Keywords: hough forest, active shape model, segmentation, cardiac left ventricle

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Authors: Medan Isaeva, Anna Degtyareva

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Context: Biliary atresia is a common reason for liver transplants in children, and the Kasai procedure can potentially be successful in avoiding the need for transplantation. However, it is important to identify factors that influence surgical outcomes in order to optimize treatment and improve patient outcomes. Research aim: The aim of this study was to develop prognostic models to assess the outcomes of the Kasai procedure in children with biliary atresia. Methodology: This retrospective study analyzed data from 166 children with biliary atresia who underwent the Kasai procedure between 2002 and 2021. The effectiveness of the operation was assessed based on specific criteria, including post-operative stool color, jaundice reduction, and bilirubin levels. The study involved a comparative analysis of various parameters, such as gestational age, birth weight, age at operation, physical development, liver and spleen sizes, and laboratory values including bilirubin, ALT, AST, and others, measured pre- and post-operation. Ultrasonographic evaluations were also conducted pre-operation, assessing the hepatobiliary system and related quantitative parameters. The study was carried out by two experienced specialists in pediatric hepatology. Comparative analysis and multifactorial logistic regression were used as the primary statistical methods. Findings: The study identified several statistically significant predictors of a successful Kasai procedure, including the presence of the gallbladder and levels of cholesterol and direct bilirubin post-operation. A detectable gallbladder was associated with a higher probability of surgical success, while elevated post-operative cholesterol and direct bilirubin levels were indicative of a reduced chance of positive outcomes. Theoretical importance: The findings of this study contribute to the optimization of treatment strategies for children with biliary atresia undergoing the Kasai procedure. By identifying early predictive signs of success, clinicians can modify treatment plans and manage patient care more effectively and proactively. Data collection and analysis procedures: Data for this analysis were obtained from the health records of patients who received the Kasai procedure. Comparative analysis and multifactorial logistic regression were employed to analyze the data and identify significant predictors. Question addressed: The study addressed the question of identifying predictive factors for the success of the Kasai procedure in children with biliary atresia. Conclusion: The developed prognostic models serve as valuable tools for early detection of patients who are less likely to benefit from the Kasai procedure. This enables clinicians to modify treatment plans and manage patient care more effectively and proactively. Potential limitations of the study: The study has several limitations. Its retrospective nature may introduce biases and inconsistencies in data collection. Being single centered, the results might not be generalizable to wider populations due to variations in surgical and postoperative practices. Also, other potential influencing factors beyond the clinical, laboratory, and ultrasonographic parameters considered in this study were not explored, which could affect the outcomes of the Kasai operation. Future studies could benefit from including a broader range of factors.

Keywords: biliary atresia, kasai operation, prognostic model, native liver survival

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Authors: Li Minghui, Min Shaorong, Zhang Jun

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This paper aims for studying the operational efficiency of surface warship’s motorized evasion to acoustic homing torpedo. It orderly developed trajectory model, self-guide detection model, vessel evasion model, as well as anti-torpedo error model in three-dimensional space to make up for the deficiency of precious researches analyzing two-dimensionally confrontational models. Then, making use of the Monte Carlo method, it carried out the simulation for the confrontation process of evasion in the environment of MATLAB. At last, it quantitatively analyzed the main factors which determine vessel’s survival probability. The results show that evasion relative bearing and speed will affect vessel’s survival probability significantly. Thus, choosing appropriate evasion relative bearing and speed according to alarming range and alarming relative bearing for torpedo, improving alarming range and positioning accuracy and reducing the response time against torpedo will improve the vessel’s survival probability significantly.

Keywords: acoustic homing torpedo, vessel evasion, monte carlo method, torpedo defense, vessel's survival probability

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Authors: X. Lu, T. Lu, S. Javadi

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A simple dynamic approach is presented for analyzing thermal and moisture dynamics of buildings, which is of particular relevance to understanding climate change impacts on buildings, including assessment of risks and applications of resilience strategies. With the goal to demonstrate the proposed modeling methodology, to verify the model, and to show that wooden materials provide a mechanism that can facilitate the reduction of moisture risks and be more resilient to global warming, a wooden church equipped with high precision measurement systems was taken as a test building for full-scale time-series measurements. Sensitivity analyses indicate a high degree of accuracy in the model prediction regarding the indoor environment. The model is then applied to a future projection of climate indoors aiming to identify significant environmental factors, the changing temperature and humidity, and effective response to the climate change impacts. The paper suggests that wooden building materials offer an effective and resilient response to anticipated future climate changes.

Keywords: dynamic model, forecast, climate change impact, wooden structure, buildings

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Authors: Nam-Uk Kim, Sung-Hwan Kim, Tai-Myoung Chung

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Typical security management systems are not suitable for detecting APT attack, because they cannot draw the big picture from trivial events of security solutions. Although SIEM solutions have security analysis engine for that, their security analysis mechanisms need to be verified in academic field. Although this paper proposes merely an architectural model for APT detection, we will keep studying on correlation analysis mechanism in the future.

Keywords: advanced persistent threat, anomaly detection, data mining

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Authors: Rashini Maduka, C. R. Wijesinghe, A. R. Weerasinghe

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Drug-drug interactions (DDIs) can happen when two or more drugs are taken together. Today DDIs have become a serious health issue due to adverse drug effects. In vivo and in vitro methods for identifying DDIs are time-consuming and costly. Therefore, in-silico-based approaches are preferred in DDI identification. Most machine learning models for DDI prediction are used chemical and biological drug properties as features. However, some drug features are not available and costly to extract. Therefore, it is better to make automatic feature engineering. Furthermore, people who have diabetes already suffer from other diseases and take more than one medicine together. Then adverse drug effects may happen to diabetic patients and cause unpleasant reactions in the body. In this study, we present a model with a graph convolutional autoencoder and a graph decoder using a dataset from DrugBank version 5.1.3. The main objective of the model is to identify unknown interactions between antidiabetic drugs and the drugs taken by diabetic patients for other diseases. We considered automatic feature engineering and used Known DDIs only as the input for the model. Our model has achieved 0.86 in AUC and 0.86 in AP.

Keywords: drug-drug interaction prediction, graph embedding, graph convolutional networks, adverse drug effects

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Authors: Pratik Gandhi, Kavitha Chandra, Charles Thompson

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A computational model of the acoustic room impulse response between transmitters and receivers located in an enclosed cavity under the influence of frequency-dependent reflection coefficients of the walls is presented. The characteristic features of the impulse responses that differentiate these results from frequency-independent reflecting surfaces are discussed. The image-source model is derived from the first principle solution to Green's function of the acoustic wave equation. The post-processing of the computed impulse response with a band-pass filter to better represents the response of a loud-speaker is demonstrated.

Keywords: acoustic room impulse response, frequency dependent reflection coefficients, Green's function, image model

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Authors: Yu Zhao, Rainer Gruenheid, Gerhard Bauch

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In the microwave and millimeter-wave transmission region, substrate-integrated waveguide (SIW) is a very promising candidate for the development of circuits and components. It facilitates the transmission at the data rates in excess of 200 Gbit/s. An SIW mimics a rectangular waveguide by approximating the closed sidewalls with a via fence. This structure suppresses the low frequency components and makes the channel of the SIW a bandpass or high pass filter. This channel characteristic impedes the conventional baseband transmission using non-return-to-zero (NRZ) pulse shaping scheme. Therefore, mixers are commonly proposed to be used as carrier modulator and demodulator in order to facilitate a passband transmission. However, carrier modulation is not an energy efficient solution, because modulation and demodulation at high frequencies consume a lot of energy. For the first time to our knowledge, this paper proposes a spectrum shaping scheme of low complexity for the channel of SIW, namely spread reshaping code. It aims at matching the spectrum of the transmit signal to the channel frequency response. It facilitates the transmission through the SIW channel while it avoids using carrier modulation. In some cases, it even does not need equalization. Simulations reveal a good performance of this scheme, such that, as a result, eye opening is achieved without any equalization or modulation for the respective transmission channels.

Keywords: bandpass channel, eye-opening, switching frequency, substrate-integrated waveguide, spectrum shaping scheme, spread reshaping code

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Authors: Reinhard Hermawan Lasut, Henki Wibowo Ashadi

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The use of materials in Indonesia's construction sector requires engineers and practitioners to develop efficient construction technology, one of the materials used in cold-formed steel. Generally, the use of cold-formed steel is used in the construction of roof trusses found in houses or factories. The failure of the roof truss structure causes errors in the calculation analysis in the form of cross-sectional dimensions or frame configuration. The roof truss structure, vertical distance effect to the span length at the edge of the frame carries the compressive load. If the span is too long, local buckling will occur which causes problems in the frame strength. The model analysis uses various shapes of roof trusses, span lengths and angles with analysis of the structural stiffness matrix method. Model trusses with one-fifth shortened span and one-sixth shortened span also The trusses model is reviewed with increasing angles. It can be concluded that the trusses model by shortening the span in the compression area can reduce deflection and the model by increasing the angle does not get good results because the higher the roof, the heavier the load carried by the roof so that the force is not channeled properly. The shape of the truss must be calculated correctly so the truss is able to withstand the working load so that there is no structural failure.

Keywords: cold-formed, trusses, deflection, stiffness matrix method

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Authors: O. Nkwonta, B. Dzwairo, F. Otieno, J. Adeyemo

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The effective management of water resources is of great importance to ensure the supply of water resources to support changing water requirements over a selected planning horizon and in a sustainable and cost-effective way. Essentially, the purpose of the water resources planning process is to balance the available water resources in a system with the water requirements and losses to which the system is subjected. In such situations, water resources yield and planning model can be used to solve those difficulties. It has an advantage over other models by managing model runs, developing a representative system network, modelling incremental sub-catchments, creating a variety of standard system features, special modelling features, and run result output options.

Keywords: complex, water resources, planning, cost effective, management

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Authors: Sung-Min Kim, Joon-Hong Park, Hyuk Choi

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This study is focused on the comparative analysis and improvement to grasp the flow characteristic of the anti-splash device located under the P/V valve and new concept design models using the CFD. The P/V valve located upper deck to solve the pressure rising and vacuum condition of inner tank of the liquid cargo ships occurred oil outflow accident by transverse and longitudinal sloshing force. Anti-splash device is fitted to improve and prevent this problem in the shipbuilding industry, but the oil outflow accidents are still reported by ship owners. Thus, 4 types of new design model are presented by this study, and then comparative analysis is conducted with new models and existing model. Mostly the key criterion of this problem is flux in the outlet of the anti-splash device. Therefore, the flow and velocity are grasped by transient analysis, and then it decided optimum model and design parameters to develop model. Later, it is needed to develop an anti-splash device by flow test to get certification and verification using experiment equipments.

Keywords: anti-splash device, P/V valve, sloshing, CFD

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Authors: Khaleel Sami Hamdan, Dong-Eok Kim, Sang-Ki Moon

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An appropriate model to predict the size of the droplets resulting from the break-up with the structures will help in a better understanding and modeling of the two-phase flow calculations in the simulation of a reactor core loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA). A droplet behavior impacting on a hot surface above the Leidenfrost temperature was investigated. Droplets of known size and velocity were impacted to an inclined plate of hot temperature, and the behavior of the droplets was observed by a high-speed camera. It was found that for droplets of Weber number higher than a certain value, the higher the Weber number of the droplet the smaller the secondary droplets. The COBRA-TF model over-predicted the measured secondary droplet sizes obtained by the present experiment. A simple model for the secondary droplet size was proposed using the mass conservation equation. The maximum spreading diameter of the droplets was also compared to previous correlations and a fairly good agreement was found. A better prediction of the heat transfer in the case of LOCA can be obtained with the presented model.

Keywords: break-up, droplet, impact, inclined hot plate, Leidenfrost temperature, LOCA

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Authors: Eva L. Sanjuán, Jacinto Martín, M. Isabel Parra, Mario M. Pizarro

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In Extreme Value Theory, inference estimation for the parameters of the distribution is made employing a small part of the observation values. When block maxima values are taken, many data are discarded. We developed a new Bayesian inference model to seize all the information provided by the data, introducing informative priors and using the relations between baseline and limit parameters. Firstly, we studied the accuracy of the new model for three baseline distributions that lead to a Gumbel extreme distribution: Exponential, Normal and Gumbel. Secondly, we considered mixtures of Normal variables, to simulate practical situations when data do not adjust to pure distributions, because of perturbations (noise).

Keywords: bayesian inference, extreme value theory, Gumbel distribution, highly informative prior

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Authors: Ruiyi Zhang, Wanglin Yan

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Strict land-use plan is issued based on city planning act for controlling urbanization and conserving semi-natural landscape. And the agrarian land resource in the suburbs has indispensable socio-economic value and contributes to the sustainability of the regional environment. However, the agrarian hinterland of metropolitan is witnessing severe farmland conversion and abandonment, while the contribution of land-use planning to farmland conservation remains unclear in those areas. Hypothetically, current land-use plan contributes to farmland loss. So, this research investigated the relationship between farmland loss and land-use planning at municipality level to provide base data for zoning in the metropolitan suburbs, and help to develop a sustainable land-use plan that will conserve the agrarian hinterland. As data and methods, 1) Farmland data of Census of Agriculture and Forestry for 2005 to 2015 and population data of 2015 and 2018 were used to investigate spatial distribution feathers of farmland loss in Tokyo Metropolitan District (TMD) for two periods: 2005-2010;2010-2015. 2) And the samples were divided by four urbanization facts. 3) DID data and zoning data for 2006 to 2018 were used to specify urbanization level of zones for describing land-use plan. 4) Then we conducted multiple regression between farmland loss, both abandonment and conversion amounts, and the described land-use plan in each of the urbanization scenario and in each period. As the results, the study reveals land-use plan has unignorable relation with farmland loss in the metropolitan suburbs at ward-city-town-village level. 1) The urban promotion areas planned larger than necessity and unregulated urbanization promote both farmland conversion and abandonment, and the effect weakens from inner suburbs to outer suburbs. 2) And the effect of land-use plan on farmland abandonment is more obvious than that on farmland conversion. The study advocates that, optimizing land-use plan will hopefully help the farmland conservation in metropolitan suburbs, which contributes to sustainable regional policy making.

Keywords: Agrarian land resource, land-use planning, urbanization level, multiple regression

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Authors: Asma Shaheen, Javed Iqbal

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The water resources are depleting due to an intrusion of industrial pollution. There are clusters of industries including leather tanning, textiles, batteries, and chemical causing contamination. These industries use bulk quantity of water and discharge it with toxic effluents. The penetration of heavy metals through irrigation from industrial effluent has toxic effect on soil and groundwater. There was strong positive significant correlation between all the heavy metals in three media of industrial effluent, soil and groundwater (P < 0.001). The metal to the metal association was supported by dendrograms using cluster analysis. The geospatial variability was assessed by using geographically weighted regression (GWR) and pollution model to identify the simulation of carcinogenic elements in soil and groundwater. The principal component analysis identified the metals source, 48.8% variation in factor 1 have significant loading for sodium (Na), calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg), iron (Fe), chromium (Cr), nickel (Ni), lead (Pb) and zinc (Zn) of tannery effluent-based process. In soil and groundwater, the metals have significant loading in factor 1 representing more than half of the total variation with 51.3 % and 53.6 % respectively which showed that pollutants in soil and water were driven by industrial effluent. The cumulative eigen values for the three media were also found to be greater than 1 representing significant clustering of related heavy metals. The results showed that heavy metals from industrial processes are seeping up toxic trace metals in the soil and groundwater. The poisonous pollutants from heavy metals turned the fresh resources of groundwater into unusable water. The availability of fresh water for irrigation and domestic use is being alarming.

Keywords: groundwater, geostatistical, heavy metals, industrial effluent

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Authors: Jose Ramon Sanabria Navarro, Yahilina Silveira Perez, Valentin Molina Moreno, Digna Dionisia Perez Bravo

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The general objective of this research is to conceive a model of strategic direction for Latin American high-performance sports centers for the improvement of their results. The sample is 62 managers, 187 trainers, 2930 athletes and 62 expert researchers from centers in Cuba, Venezuela, Ecuador, Colombia and Argentina, for 3241. The measurement instrument includes 12 key variables in the process of management strategies which are consolidated with the factorial analysis and the ANOVA of a factor through the SPSS 24.0. The reliability of the scale obtained an alpha higher than 0.7 in each sample. In this sense, a model is obtained that taxes the deficiencies detected in the diagnosis, based on the needs of the members of these organizations, considering criteria and theories of the strategic direction in the improvement of the organizational results. The validation of the model for high performance sports centers of the countries analyzed aims to develop joint strategies to generate synergies in their operational mode, which leads to enhance the sports organization.

Keywords: sports organization, information management, decision making, control

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Authors: Mohammad Bagher Anvari, Arman Shojaei

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Incremental launching, a widely adopted bridge erection technique, offers numerous advantages for bridge designers. However, accurately simulating and modeling the dynamic behavior of the bridge during each step of the launching process proves to be tedious and time-consuming. The perpetual variation of internal forces within the deck during construction stages adds complexity, exacerbated further by considerations of other load cases, such as support settlements and temperature effects. As a result, there is an urgent need for a reliable, simple, economical, and fast algorithmic solution to model bridge construction stages effectively. This paper presents a novel Finite Element (FE) model that focuses on studying the static behavior of bridges during the launching process. Additionally, a simple method is introduced to normalize all quantities in the problem. The new FE model overcomes the limitations of previous models, enabling the simulation of all stages of launching, which conventional models fail to achieve due to underlying assumptions. By leveraging the results obtained from the new FE model, this study proposes solutions to improve the accuracy of conventional models, particularly for the initial stages of bridge construction that have been neglected in previous research. The research highlights the critical role played by the first span of the bridge during the initial stages, a factor often overlooked in existing studies. Furthermore, a new and simplified model termed the "semi-infinite beam" model, is developed to address this oversight. By utilizing this model alongside a simple optimization approach, optimal values for launching nose specifications are derived. The practical applications of this study extend to optimizing the nose-deck system of incrementally launched bridges, providing valuable insights for practical usage. In conclusion, this paper introduces a comprehensive Finite Element model for studying the static behavior of bridges during incremental launching. The proposed model addresses limitations found in previous approaches and offers practical solutions to enhance accuracy. The study emphasizes the importance of considering the initial stages and introduces the "semi-infinite beam" model. Through the developed model and optimization approach, optimal specifications for launching nose configurations are determined. This research holds significant practical implications and contributes to the optimization of incrementally launched bridges, benefiting both the construction industry and bridge designers.

Keywords: incremental launching, bridge construction, finite element model, optimization

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Authors: Abdelrahman Elsehsah, Hany Madkour, Khalid Farah

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This article presents a 3-D modified non-linear elastic model in the strain space. The Helmholtz free energy function is introduced with the existence of a dissipation potential surface in the space of thermodynamic conjugate forces. The constitutive equation and the damage evolution were derived as well. The modified damage has been examined to model the nonlinear behavior of reinforced concrete (RC) slabs with an opening. A parametric study with RC was carried out to investigate the impact of different factors on the behavior of RC slabs. These factors are the opening area, the opening shape, the place of opening, and the thickness of the slabs. And the numerical results have been compared with the experimental data from literature. Finally, the model showed its ability to be applied to the structural analysis of RC slabs.

Keywords: damage mechanics, 3-D numerical analysis, RC, slab with opening

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Authors: Ismail Kimuli

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With a steadfast economic development, the Greater Kampala metropolitan area (GKMA) faces increasing pressures to increasetheshare of low-carbon electricity in the energy balance, abate CO2 emissions and also restructure the transportation sector for a sustainable 2050. GKMA, is Uganda’s commercial, political, social, and industrial hub with a population of 4.1 million, contributing 60% tothe nation’s GDP and accounts for 80% of Uganda’s industrial sector.However, with the rampant anthropogenic interference that causes climate change, CO2 emissions in the metropolitan are contributing to global warming. Many economies across the globe are addressing this challengethrough development and analysis of sustainable energy portfolios.A sustainable energy portfolio is a low-carbon scenario. The study reviews the literature to establish the current energy management situation of GKMA and finds it wanting in addressing the immediate challenges associated with energy management of the metropolitan. Then, the study develops and examines a sustainable energy portfolio for GKMA using TIMES-VEDA and then presents it as an investigative low-carbon energy scenario that could propel the metropolitan sustainably towards 2050.Sustainability is plausible by optimizing the total primary energy supply, generating low-carbon electricity from hydropower and PV-solar renewables, improving heating technologies for residential & commercial sectors, and switching 90% of land passengers from road to a Kampala metro for a sustainable mid-century.

Keywords: GKMA, sustainability, TIMES-VEDA, low-carbon scenario

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Authors: Aderonke Olaitan Adesina

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Background: The paradigm shift to knowledge, as the key to organizational innovation and competitive advantage, has made the management of knowledge resources in organizations a mandate. A key component of the knowledge management (KM) cycle is knowledge creation, which is researched to be the result of the interaction between explicit and tacit knowledge. An effective knowledge creation process requires the use of the right model. The SECI (Socialisation, Externalisation, Combination, and Internalisation) model, proposed in 1995, is attested to be a preferred model of choice for knowledge creation activities. The model has, however, been criticized by researchers, who raise their concern, especially about its sequential nature. Therefore, this paper reviews extant literature on the practical application of each mode of the SECI model, from 1995 to date, with a view to ascertaining the relevance in modern-day KM practice. The study will establish the trends of use, with regards to the location and industry of use, and the interconnectedness of the modes. The main research question is, for organizational knowledge creation activities, is the SECI model indeed linear and sequential? In other words, does the model need to be reviewed in today’s KM practice? The review will generate a compendium of the usage of the SECI modes and propose a framework of use, based on the strength weaknesses opportunities and threats (SWOT) findings of the study. Method: This study will employ the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methodology to investigate the usage and SWOT of the modes, in order to ascertain the success, or otherwise, of the sequential application of the modes in practice from 1995 to 2019. To achieve the purpose, four databases will be explored to search for open access, peer-reviewed articles from 1995 to 2019. The year 1995 is chosen as the baseline because it was the year the first paper on the SECI model was published. The study will appraise relevant peer-reviewed articles under the search terms: SECI (or its synonym, knowledge creation theory), socialization, externalization, combination, and internalization in the title, abstract, or keywords list. This review will include only empirical studies of knowledge management initiatives in which the SECI model and its modes were used. Findings: It is expected that the study will highlight the practical relevance of each mode of the SECI model, the linearity or not of the model, the SWOT in each mode. Concluding Statement: Organisations can, from the analysis, determine the modes of emphasis for their knowledge creation activities. It is expected that the study will support decision making in the choice of the SECI model as a strategy for the management of organizational knowledge resources, and in appropriating the SECI model, or its remodeled version, as a theoretical framework in future KM research.

Keywords: combination, externalisation, internalisation, knowledge management, SECI model, socialisation

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Authors: Noureddine Seddari, Mohamed Belaoued, Salah Bougueroua

Abstract:

The modeling of complex systems is generally based on the decomposition of their components into sub-systems easier to handle. This division has to be made in a methodical way. In this paper, we introduce an industrial control system modeling and simulation based on the Multi-Agent System (MAS) methodology AALAADIN and more particularly the underlying conceptual model Agent/Group/Role (AGR). Indeed, in this division using AGR model, the overall system is decomposed into sub-systems in order to improve the understanding of regulation and control systems, and to simplify the implementation of the obtained agents and their groups, which are implemented using the Multi-Agents Development KIT (MAD-KIT) platform. This approach appears to us to be the most appropriate for modeling of this type of systems because, due to the use of MAS, it is possible to model real systems in which very complex behaviors emerge from relatively simple and local interactions between many different individuals, therefore a MAS is well adapted to describe a system from the standpoint of the activity of its components, that is to say when the behavior of the individuals is complex (difficult to describe with equations). The main aim of this approach is the take advantage of the performance, the scalability and the robustness that are intuitively provided by MAS.

Keywords: complex systems, modeling and simulation, industrial control system, MAS, AALAADIN, AGR, MAD-KIT

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Authors: S. M. Anowarul Haque, Md. Asiful Islam

Abstract:

Electrical load forecasting is considered to be one of the most indispensable parts of a modern-day electrical power system. To ensure a reliable and efficient supply of electric energy, special emphasis should have been put on the predictive feature of electricity supply. Artificial Neural Network-based approaches have emerged to be a significant area of interest for electric load forecasting research. This paper proposed an Artificial Neural Network model based on the particle swarm optimization algorithm for improved electric load forecasting for Mymensingh, Bangladesh. The forecasting model is developed and simulated on the MATLAB environment with a large number of training datasets. The model is trained based on eight input parameters including historical load and weather data. The predicted load data are then compared with an available dataset for validation. The proposed neural network model is proved to be more reliable in terms of day-wise load forecasting for Mymensingh, Bangladesh.

Keywords: load forecasting, artificial neural network, particle swarm optimization

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Authors: Sh. Wafa, M. Alanoud, S. Liyakathunisa

Abstract:

Online booking for a trip or hotel has become an indispensable traveling tool today, people tend to be more interested in selecting air flight travel as their first choice when going for a long trip. People's shopping behavior has greatly changed by the advent of social network. Traditional ticket booking methods are considered as outdated with the advancement in tools and technology. Web based booking framework is an 'absolute necessity to have' for any visit or movement business that is investing heaps of energy noting telephone calls, sending messages or considering employing more staff. In this paper, we propose a process model for online trip reservation for our designed web application. Our proposed system will be highly beneficial and helps in reduction in time and cost for customers.

Keywords: trip, hotel, reservation, process model, time, cost, web app

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Authors: Samuel Matylewicz, K. W. Goossen

Abstract:

The deployment of white or cool (high albedo) roofing is a common energy savings recommendation for a variety of buildings all over the world. Here, the effect of a white roof on the energy savings of an ice rink facility in the northeastern US is determined by measuring the effect of solar irradiance on the consumption of the rink's ice refrigeration system. The consumption of the refrigeration system was logged over a year, along with multiple weather vectors, and a statistical model was applied. The experimental model indicates that the expected savings of replacing the existing grey roof with a white roof on the consumption of the refrigeration system is only 4.7 %. This overall result of the statistical model is confirmed with isolated instances of otherwise similar weather days, but cloudy vs. sunny, where there was no measurable difference in refrigeration consumption up to the noise in the local data, which was a few percent. This compares with a simple theoretical calculation that indicates 30% savings. The difference is attributed to a lack of convective cooling of the roof in the theoretical model. The best experimental model shows a relative effect of the weather vectors dry bulb temperature, solar irradiance, wind speed, and relative humidity on refrigeration consumption of 1, 0.026, 0.163, and -0.056, respectively. This result can have an impact on decisions to apply white roofing to refrigerated buildings in general.

Keywords: cool roofs, solar cooling load, refrigerated buildings, energy-efficient building envelopes

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Authors: Sheng Yu Chen, Shi-Heng Wang

Abstract:

Aim: Based on human, animal experiments, and genetic studies, cysteinyl leukotrienes, LTC4, LTD4, and LTE4, are inflammatory substances that are metabolized by 5-lipooxygenase from arachidonic acid, and these substances trigger asthma. In addition, the synthetic pathway of cysteinyl leukotriene is relevant to the increase in cardiovascular diseases such as myocardial ischemia and stroke. Given the situation, we aim to investigate whether cysteinyl leukotrienes receptor antagonist (LTRA), montelukast which cures those who have asthma has potential protective effects on cardiovascular diseases. Method: We conducted a cohort study, and enrolled participants which are newly diagnosed with asthma (ICD-9 CM code 493. X) between 2002 to 2011. The data source is from Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database Patients with a previous history of myocardial infarction or ischemic stroke were excluded. Among the remaining participants, every montelukast user was matched with two randomly non-users by sex, and age. The incident cardiovascular diseases, including myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke, were regarded as outcomes. We followed the participants until outcomes come first or the end of the following period. To explore the protective effect of montelukast on the risk of cardiovascular disease, we use multivariable Cox regression to estimate the hazard ratio with adjustment for potential confounding factors. Result: There are 55876 newly diagnosed asthma patients who had at least one claim of inpatient admission or at least three claims of outpatient records. We enrolled 5350 montelukast users and 10700 non-users in this cohort study. The following mean (±SD) time of the Montelukast group is 5 (±2.19 )years, and the non-users group is 6.2 5.47 (± 2.641) years. By using multivariable Cox regression, our analysis indicated that the risk of incident cardiovascular diseases between montelukast users (n=43, 0.8%) and non-users (n=111, 1.04%) is approximately equal. [adjusted hazard ratio 0.992; P-value:0.9643] Conclusion: In this population-based study, we found that the use of montelukast is not associated with a decrease in incident MI or IS.

Keywords: asthma, inflammation, montelukast, insurance research database, cardiovascular diseases

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