Search results for: construction risk assessment model

Authors: Maor Farid, Oleg Gendelman

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The following study deals with fluid vibration of a liquid in a partially filled vessel under periodic ground excitation. This external excitation might lead to hidraulic impact applied on the vessel inner walls. In order to model these sloshing dynamic regimes, several equivalent mechanical models were suggested in the literature, such as series of pendula or mass-spring systems that are able to impact the inner tank walls. In the following study, we use the latter methodology, use parameter values documented in literature corresponding to cylindrical tanks and consider structural elasticity of the tank. The hydraulic impulses are modeled by the high-exponent potential function. Additional system parameters are found with the help of Finite-Element (FE) analysis. Model-driven stress assessment method is developed. Finally, vibration mitigation performances of both tuned mass damper (TMD) and nonlinear energy sink (NES) are examined.

Keywords: nonlinear energy sink (NES), reduced-order modelling, liquid sloshing, vibration mitigation, vibro-impact dynamics

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Authors: Giuliana Murfet, Heidi Behrens

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Chronic disease is Australia’s biggest health concern and obesity the leading risk factor for many. Obesity and chronic disease have a higher representation in rural Tasmania, where levels of socio-disadvantage are also higher. People living outside major cities have less access to health services and poorer health outcomes. To help primary healthcare professionals manage obesity, the Australian NHMRC evidence-based clinical practice guidelines for management of overweight and obesity in adults were developed. They include recommendations for practice and models for obesity management. To our knowledge there has been no research conducted that investigates translation of these guidelines into practice in rural-regional areas; where implementation can be complicated by limited financial and staffing resources. Also, the systematic review that informed the guidelines revealed a lack of evidence for chronic disease models of obesity care. The aim was to establish and evaluate a multidisciplinary model for obesity management in a group of adult people with type 2 diabetes in a dispersed rural population in Australia. Extensive stakeholder engagement was undertaken to both garner support for an obesity clinic and develop a sustainable model of care. A comprehensive nurse practitioner-led outpatient model for obesity care was designed. Multidisciplinary obesity clinics for adults with type 2 diabetes including a dietitian, psychologist, physiotherapist and nurse practitioner were set up in the north-west of Tasmania at two geographically-rural towns. Implementation was underpinned by the NHMRC guidelines and recommendations focused on: assessment approaches; promotion of health benefits of weight loss; identification of relevant programs for individualising care; medication and bariatric surgery options for obesity management; and, the importance of long-term weight management. A clinical pathway for adult weight management is delivered by the multidisciplinary team with recognition of the impact of and adjustments needed for other comorbidities. The model allowed for intensification of intervention such as bariatric surgery according to recommendations, patient desires and suitability. A randomised controlled trial is ongoing, with the aim to evaluate standard care (diabetes-focused management) compared with an obesity-related approach with additional dietetic, physiotherapy, psychology and lifestyle advice. Key barriers and enablers to guideline implementation were identified that fall under the following themes: 1) health care delivery changes and the project framework development; 2) capacity and team-building; 3) stakeholder engagement; and, 4) the research project and partnerships. Engagement of not only local hospital but also state-wide health executives and surgical services committee were paramount to the success of the project. Staff training and collective development of the framework allowed for shared understanding. Staff capacity was increased with most taking on other activities (e.g., surgery coordination). Barriers were often related to differences of opinions in focus of the project; a desire to remain evidenced based (e.g., exercise prescription) without adjusting the model to allow for consideration of comorbidities. While barriers did exist and challenges overcome; the development of critical partnerships did enable the capacity for a potential model of obesity care for rural regional areas. Importantly, the findings contribute to the evidence base for models of diabetes and obesity care that coordinate limited resources.

Keywords: diabetes, interdisciplinary, model of care, obesity, rural regional

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Authors: M. H. Ahmadi, A. Mortazavi, H. Zarei

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Several authors have described the main mechanism of formation of cracks in the segment lining during the construction of tunnels with tunnel boring machines. A comprehensive analysis of segmental lining joints may help to guarantee a safe construction during Tunneling and serviceable stages. The most frequent types of segment damage are caused by a condition of uneven segment matching due to contact deficiencies. This paper investigated the interaction mechanism of precast concrete lining joints in tunnels. The Discrete Element Method (DEM) was used to analyze a typical segmental lining model consisting of six segment rings. In the analyses, typical segmental lining design parameters of the Ghomrood water conveyance tunnel, Iran were employed in the study. In the conducted analysis, the worst-case scenario of loading faced during the boring of Ghomrood tunnel was considered. This was associated with the existence of a crushed zone dipping at 75 degree at the location of the key segment. In the analysis, moreover, the effect of changes in horizontal stress ratio on the loads on the segment was assessed. The boundary condition associated with K (ratio of the horizontal to the vertical stress) values of 0.5, 1, 1.5 and 2 were applied to the model and separate analysis was conducted for each case. Important parameters such as stress, moments, and displacements were measured at joint locations and the surrounding rock. Accordingly, the segment joint interactions were assessed and analyzed. Moreover, rock mass properties of the Ghomrood in Ghom were adopted. In this study, the load acting on segments joints are included a crushed zone stratum force that intersect tunnel with 75 slopes in the location of the key segment, gravity force of segments and earth pressures. A numerical investigation was used for different coefficients of stress concentration of 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2 and different geological conditions of saturated crushed zone under the critical scenario. The numerical results also demonstrate that maximum bending moments in longitudinal joints occurred for crushed zone with the weaken strengths (Sandstone). Besides that, increasing the load in segment-stratum interfaces affected radial stress in longitudinal joints and finally the opening of joints occurred.

Keywords: joint, interface, segment, contact

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Authors: Marta Kozuń, Krystian Toczewski, Sylwester Gerus, Justyna Wolicka, Kamila Boberek, Jarosław Filipiak, Dariusz Patkowski

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Long gap esophageal atresia is a congenital defect and is a challenge for pediatric surgeons all over the world. There are different surgical techniques in use to treat atresia. One of them is esophageal elongation but the optimal suture placement technique to achieve maximum elongation with low-risk complications is still unknown. The aim of the study was to characterize the process of esophageal elongation from the biomechanical point of view. Esophagi of white Pekin Duck was used as a model based on the size of this animal which is similar to a newborn (2.5-4kg). The specimens were divided into two groups: the control group (CG) and the group with sutures (SG). The esophagi of the control group were mounted in the grips of the MTS Tytron 250 testing machine and tensile test until rupture was performed. The loading speed during the test was 10mm/min. Then the SG group was tested. Each esophagus was cut into two equal parts and that were fused together using surgical sutures. The distance between both esophagus parts was 20mm. Ten both ends were mounted on the same testing machine and the tensile test with the same parameters was conducted. For all specimens, force and elongation were recorded. The biomechanical properties, i.e., the maximal force and maximal elongation, were determined on the basis of force-elongation curves. The maximal elongation was determined at the point of maximal force. The force achieved with the suture group was 10.1N±1.9N and 50.3N±11.6N for the control group. The highest elongation was also obtained for the control group: 18mm±3mm vs. 13.5mm ±2.4mm for the suture group. The presented study expands the knowledge of elongation of esophagi. It is worth emphasizing that the duck esophagus differs from the esophagus of a newborn, i.e., its wall lacks striated muscle cells. This is why the parts of animal esophagi used in the research are may characterized by different biomechanical properties in comparison with newborn tissue.

Keywords: long gap atresia treatment, esophageal elongation, biomechanical properties, soft tissue

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Authors: Raquel Dafouz Neus Cáceres, Javier Fernandez-Rubio, Belinda Huerta José Luis Rodríguez-Gil, Nicola Mastroianni, Miren López de Alda, Damià Barceló, Yolanda Valcárcel

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The region of Galicia, found in north-western (NW) Spain, is a national and world leader in shellfish, especially mussel production, and recognized for its fishing industry. Few studies have evaluated the presence of emerging contaminants in NW Spain, with those published mainly concerning the continental aquatic environment. The objective of this study was to identify the environmental risk posed by the presence of pharmaceuticals and drugs of abuse in this important coastal region. The presence of sixteen pharmaceuticals (benzodiazepines, anxiolytics, and caffeine), and 19 drugs of abuse (cocainics, amphetamine-like compounds, opiates and opioids, lysergic compounds, and cannabinoids) was assessed in 23 sites located in the Rías (Coastal inlets) of Muros, Arousa, and Pontevedra (NW Spain). Twenty-two of these locations were affected by waste-water treatment plant (WWTP) effluents, and one represented the effluent of one of these WWTPs. Venlafaxine was the pharmaceutical compound detected at higher concentration in the three Rías, with a maximum value of 291 ng/L at the site Porto do Son (Ría de Muros). Total concentration in the three Rías was 819,26 ng/L. Next, citalopram and lorazepam were the most prevalent compounds detected. Metabolite of cocaine benzoylecgonine was the drug of abuse with the highest concentration, measured at 972 ng/L in the Ría of Noia WWTP (no dilution). This compound was also detected at 142 ng/L in the site La Isla de Aros, Ría of Pontevedra. Total concentration for the three Rías was 1210 ng/L. Ephedrine was also detected at high level in the three Rías, with a total concentration of 579,28 ng/L. The results obtained for caffeine show maximum and average concentrations of 857 ng/L Isla de Arosa, Ría de Pontevedra the highest measured in seawater in Spain. A preliminary hazard assessment was carried out by comparing these measured environmental concentrations (MEC) to predicted no-effect concentrations (PNECs) for aquatic organisms. Six out of the 22 seawater samples resulted in a Hazard Quotient (HQ) from chronic exposure higher than 1 with the highest being 17.14, indicating a high probability of adverse effects in the aquatic environment. In addition, the risk was assessed on the basis of persistence, bioaccumulation, and toxicity (PBT). This work was financially supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness through the Carlos III Health Institute and the program 'Proyectos de Investigacion en Salud 2015-2017' FIS (PI14/00516), the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), the Catalan Government (Consolidated Research Groups '2014 SGR 418 - Water and Soil Quality Unit' and 2014 SGR 291 - ICRA), and the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no. 603437. The poster entitled 'Environmental Risk of Pharmaceuticals, Drugs of Abuse and Stimulant Caffeine in Marine Water: A Case Study in the North-Western of Spain'.

Keywords: drug of abuse, pharmaceuticals, caffeine, environmental risk, seawater

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Authors: Ashkan Shafee, Ahamd Fahimifar, Sajjad V. Maghvan

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Promotion of the Fiber Reinforced Concrete (FRC) as a construction material for civil engineering projects has invoked numerous researchers to investigate their mechanical behavior. Even though there is satisfactory information about the effects of fiber type and length, concrete mixture, casting type and other variables on the strength and deformability parameters of FRC, the numerical modeling of such materials still needs research attention. The focus of this study is to investigate the feasibility of Concrete Damaged Plasticity (CDP) model in prediction of Macro-synthetic FRC structures behavior. CDP model requires the tensile behavior of concrete to be well characterized. For this purpose, a series of uniaxial direct tension and four point bending tests were conducted on the notched specimens to define bilinear tension softening (post-peak tension stress-strain) behavior. With these parameters obtained, the flexural behavior of macro-synthetic FRC beams were modeled and the results showed a good agreement with the experimental measurements.

Keywords: concrete damaged plasticity, fiber reinforced concrete, finite element modeling, macro-synthetic fibers, uniaxial tensile test

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Authors: Medjadj Tarek, Ghribi Hayet

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This study aims to develop a flood sensitivity assessment tool using machine learning (ML) techniques and geographic information system (GIS). The importance of this study is integrating the geographic information systems (GIS) and machine learning (ML) techniques for mapping flood risks, which help decision-makers to identify the most vulnerable areas and take the necessary precautions to face this type of natural disaster. To reach this goal, we will study the case of the city of M'sila, which is among the areas most vulnerable to floods. This study drew a map of flood-prone areas based on the methodology where we have made a comparison between 3 machine learning algorithms: the xGboost model, the Random Forest algorithm and the K Nearest Neighbour algorithm. Each of them gave an accuracy respectively of 97.92 - 95 - 93.75. In the process of mapping flood-prone areas, the first model was relied upon, which gave the greatest accuracy (xGboost).

Keywords: Geographic information systems (GIS), machine learning (ML), emergency mapping, flood disaster management

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Authors: Ayedh Alqahtani

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Many construction firms in Saudi Arabia dedicated to building projects agree that the most important factor in the real estate market is the value that they can give to their customer. These firms understand the value of their client in different ways. Value can be defined as the size of the building project in relationship to the cost or the design quality of the materials utilized in finish work or any other features of building rooms such as the bathroom. Value can also be understood as something suitable for the money the client is investing for the new property. A quality tool is required to support companies to achieve a solution for the building project and to understand and manage the customer’s needs. Quality Function Development (QFD) method will be able to play this role since the main difference between QFD and other conventional quality management tools is QFD a valuable and very flexible tool for design and taking into the account the VOC. Currently, organizations and agencies are seeking suitable models able to deal better with uncertainty, and that is flexible and easy to use. The primary aim of this research project is to incorporate customer’s requirements in the conceptual design of construction projects. Towards this goal, QFD is selected due to its capability to integrate the design requirements to meet the customer’s needs. To develop QFD, this research focused upon the contribution of the different (significantly weighted) input factors that represent the main variables influencing QFD and subsequent analysis of the techniques used to measure them. First of all, this research will review the literature to determine the current practice of QFD in construction projects. Then, the researcher will review the literature to define the current customers of residential projects and gather information on customers’ requirements for the design of the residential building. After that, qualitative survey research will be conducted to rank customer’s needs and provide the views of stakeholder practitioners about how these needs can affect their satisfy. Moreover, a qualitative focus group with the members of the design team will be conducted to determine the improvements level and technical details for the design of residential buildings. Finally, the QFD will be developed to establish the degree of significance of the design’s solution.

Keywords: quality function development, construction projects, Saudi Arabia, quality tools

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Authors: Vanessa Matias Leite, Jandira Guenka Palma, Flávio Henrique de Oliveira

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This paper presents a model-oriented development approach to software development in the Model-View-Controller (MVC) architectural standard. This approach aims to expose a process of extractions of information from the models, in which through rules and syntax defined in this work, assists in the design of the initial model and its future conversions. The proposed paper presents a syntax based on the natural language, according to the rules agreed in the classic grammar of the Portuguese language, added to the rules of conversions generating models that follow the norms of the Object Management Group (OMG) and the Meta-Object Facility MOF.

Keywords: BNF Syntax, model driven architecture, model-view-controller, transformation, UML

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Authors: Girts Zageris, Vadims Geza, Andris Jakovics

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Gasification processes are of great interest due to their generation of renewable energy in the form of syngas from biodegradable waste. It is, therefore, important to study the factors that play a role in the efficiency of gasification and the longevity of the machines in which gasification takes place. This study focuses on the latter, aiming to optimize an entrained-flow gasifier by reducing slag formation on its walls to reduce maintenance costs. A CFD mathematical model for an entrained-flow gasifier is constructed – the model of an actual gasifier is rendered in 3D and appropriately meshed. Then, the turbulent gas flow in the gasifier is modeled with the realizable k-ε approach, taking devolatilization, combustion and coal gasification into account. Various such simulations are conducted, obtaining results for different air inlet positions and by tracking particles of varying sizes undergoing devolatilization and gasification. The model identifies potential problematic zones where most particles collide with the gasifier walls, indicating risk regions where ash deposits could most likely form. In conclusion, the effects on the formation of an ash layer of air inlet positioning and particle size allowed in the main gasifier tank are discussed, and possible solutions for decreasing a number of undesirable deposits are proposed. Additionally, an estimate of the impact of different factors such as temperature, gas properties and gas content, and different forces acting on the particles undergoing gasification is given.

Keywords: biomass particles, gasification, slag formation, turbulence k-ε modelling

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Authors: H. M. N. L. Handagiripathira

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The distributions of naturally occurring and anthropogenic radioactive materials were determined in surface sediments taken at 27 different locations along the bank of Negombo Lagoon in Sri Lanka. Hydrographic parameters of lagoon water and the grain size analyses of the sediment samples were also carried out for this study. The conductivity of the adjacent water was varied from 13.6 mS/cm to 55.4 mS/cm near to the southern end and the northern end of the lagoon, respectively, and equally salinity levels varied from 7.2 psu to 32.1 psu. The average pH in the water was 7.6 and average water temperature was 28.7 °C. The grain size analysis emphasized the mass fractions of the samples as sand (60.9%), fine sand (30.6%) and fine silt+clay (1.3%) in the sampling locations. The surface sediment samples of wet weight, 1 kg each from upper 5-10 cm layer, were oven dried at 105 °C for 24 hours to get a constant weight, homogenized and sieved through a 2 mm sieve (IAEA technical series no. 295). The radioactivity concentrations were determined using gamma spectrometry technique. Ultra Low Background Broad Energy High Purity Ge Detector, BEGe (Model BE5030, Canberra) was used for radioactivity measurement with Canberra Industries' Laboratory Source-less Calibration Software (LabSOCS) mathematical efficiency calibration approach and Geometry composer software. The mean activity concentration was found to be 24 ± 4, 67 ± 9, 181 ± 10, 59 ± 8, 3.5 ± 0.4 and 0.47 ± 0.08 Bq/kg for 238U, 232Th, 40K, 210Pb, 235U and 137Cs respectively. The mean absorbed dose rate in air, radium equivalent activity, external hazard index, annual gonadal dose equivalent and annual effective dose equivalent were 60.8 nGy/h, 137.3 Bq/kg, 0.4, 425.3 mSv/year and 74.6 mSv/year, respectively. The results of this study will provide baseline information on the natural and artificial radioactive isotopes and environmental pollution associated with information on radiological risk.

Keywords: gamma spectrometry, lagoon, radioactivity, sediments

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Authors: Rabah Younes

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The reduction of available land resources and the increased cout associated with the use of high quality materials have led to the need for local soils to be used in geotechnical construction, however; poor engineering properties of these soils pose difficulties for constructions project and need to be stabilized to improve their properties in other works unsuitable soils with low bearing capacity , high plasticity coupled with high instability are frequently encountered hence, there is a need to improve the physical and mechanical characteristics of these soils to make theme more suitable for construction this can be done by using different mechanical and chemical methods clayey soil stabilization has been practiced for sometime but mixing additives, such us cement, lime and fly ash to the soil to increase its strength.

Keywords: clay, soil stabilization, naturaln pozzolana, atterberg limits, compaction, compressive strength shear strength, curing

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Authors: Yahya N. Alfraidi, Abdel Halim Boussabaine

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Climate change risk impacts are one of the most challenging aspects that faces the built environment now and the near future. The impacts of climate change on buildings are considered in four different dimensions: physical, economic, social, and management. For each of these, the risks are discussed as they arise from various effects linked to climate change, including windstorms, precipitation, temperature change, flooding, and sea-level rise. For example, building assets in cities will be exposed to extreme hot summer days and nights due to the urban heat island effect and pollution. Buildings also could be vulnerable to water, electricity, gas, etc., scarcity. Building materials, fabric and systems could also be stressed by the emerging climate risks. More impotently the building users might experience extreme internal and extern comfort conditions leading to lower productivity, wellbeing and health problems. Thus, the main aim of this paper to document the emerging risks from climate change on building assets. An in-depth discussion on the consequences of these climate change risk is provided. It is expected that the outcome of this research will be a set of risk design indicators for developing and procuring resilient building assets.

Keywords: climate change, risks of climate change, risks on building from climate change, buildings

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Authors: Danielle Sandler dos Passos, Helder Coelho, Flávia Mori Sarti

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Analysing the world banking sector, we realize that traditional risk measurement methodologies no longer reflect the actual scenario with uncertainty and leave out events that can change the dynamics of markets. Considering this, regulators and financial institutions began to search more realistic models. The aim is to include external influences and interdependencies between agents, to describe and measure the operationalization of these complex systems and their risks in a more coherent and credible way. Within this context, X-Events are more frequent than assumed and, with uncertainties and constant changes, the concept of antifragility starts to gain great prominence in comparison to others methodologies of risk management. It is very useful to analyse whether a system succumbs (fragile), resists (robust) or gets benefits (antifragile) from disorder and stress. Thus, this work proposes the creation of the Banking Antifragility Index (BAI), which is based on the calculation of a triangular fuzzy number – to "quantify" qualitative criteria linked to antifragility.

Keywords: adaptive complex systems, X-Events, risk management, antifragility, banking antifragility index, triangular fuzzy number

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Authors: Gabriele Iannotta

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This paper investigates credit cycles by means of an experiment based on a Kiyotaki & Moore (1997) model with heterogeneous expectations. The aim is to examine how a credit squeeze caused by high lender-level risk perceptions affects the real prices of a collateralised asset, with a special focus on the macroeconomic implications of rising price volatility in terms of total welfare and the number of bankruptcies that occur. To do that, a learning-to-forecast experiment (LtFE) has been run where participants are asked to predict the future price of land and then rewarded based on the accuracy of their forecasts. The setting includes one lender and five borrowers in each of the twelve sessions split between six control groups (G1) and six treatment groups (G2). The only difference is that while in G1 the lender always satisfies borrowers’ loan demand (bankruptcies permitting), in G2 he/she closes the entire credit market in case three or more bankruptcies occur in the previous round. Experimental results show that negative risk-driven supply shocks amplify the volatility of collateral prices. This uncertainty worsens the agents’ ability to predict the future value of land and, as a consequence, the number of defaults increases and the total welfare deteriorates.

Keywords: Behavioural Macroeconomics, Credit Cycle, Experimental Economics, Heterogeneous Expectations, Learning-to-Forecast Experiment

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Authors: Yash Bingi, Yiqiao Yin

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Reduction of child mortality is an ongoing struggle and a commonly used factor in determining progress in the medical field. The under-5 mortality number is around 5 million around the world, with many of the deaths being preventable. In light of this issue, Cardiotocograms (CTGs) have emerged as a leading tool to determine fetal health. By using ultrasound pulses and reading the responses, CTGs help healthcare professionals assess the overall health of the fetus to determine the risk of child mortality. However, interpreting the results of the CTGs is time-consuming and inefficient, especially in underdeveloped areas where an expert obstetrician is hard to come by. Using a support vector machine (SVM) and oversampling, this paper proposed a model that classifies fetal health with an accuracy of 99.59%. To further explain the CTG measurements, an algorithm based on Randomized Input Sampling for Explanation ((RISE) of Black-box Models was created, called Feature Alteration for explanation of Black Box Models (FAB), and compared the findings to Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and Local Interpretable Model Agnostic Explanations (LIME). This allows doctors and medical professionals to classify fetal health with high accuracy and determine which features were most influential in the process.

Keywords: machine learning, fetal health, gradient boosting, support vector machine, Shapley values, local interpretable model agnostic explanations

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Authors: Devina Jain

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The choice between single-use drinking glasses and reusable glasses is of major concern to our lifestyles, and hence, the environment. This study is aimed at comparing three systems - a disposable paper cup, a disposable cup and a reusable stainless steel cup or glass - with respect to their effect on the environment to find out which one is more advantageous for reducing the impact on the environment. Life Cycle Assessment was conducted using modeling software, Umberto NXT Universal (Version 7.1). For the purpose of this study, the cradle to grave approach was considered. Results showed that cleaning is of a very strong influence on the environmental burden by these drinking systems, with a contribution of up to 90 to 100%. Thus, the burden is determined by the way in which the utensils are washed, and how much water is consumed. It maybe seems like a small, insignificant daily practice. In the short term, it would seem that paper and plastic cups are a better idea, since they are easy to acquire and do not need to be stored, but in the long run, we can say that steel cups will have less of an environmental impact. However, if the frequency of use and the number of glasses employed per use are of significance to decide the appropriateness of the usage, it is better to use disposable cups and glasses.

Keywords: disposable glass, life cycle assessment, paper, plastic, reusable glass, stainless steel

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Authors: L. Paulino Ferreira, M. Gomes Neto, M. Duarte, S. Serra

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Objectives: COVID-19 pandemic has caused older adults to experience a degree of social isolation and loneliness that is unprecedented. Our aim is to review state of the art regarding the consequences of social isolation due to COVID-19 in elderly people. Methods: The authors conducted a search on Medscape and PubMed with the keywords mentioned below, and the most relevant articles were selected. Results: Social isolation leads many elderlies to experience loneliness, anxiety, depression, alcohol abuse, and feelings of abandonment with a perception of being a burden on society. Thus, social isolation has increased the risk for suicide in older people. It is also noteworthy that the exacerbation of psychiatric disorders (such as depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder) without correct treatment and follow-up also increases suicide risk. Loneliness is also associated with accelerated cognitive deterioration and dementia. Besides that, during social isolation, it could be more difficult for older people to get medication as well as proper health care. It is also noticed an increase in the risk of falls, poor nutrition, and lack of exercise. All this contributes to weakening elderlies’ immune systems leading to a higher risk of developing infections, cardiovascular events, and cancer, increasing hospitalization and morbimortality. Conclusion: Social isolation in the elderly has a significant impact on physical and mental health, as well as morbimortality and hospitalizations due to non-COVID causes. Nevertheless, further studies will be needed to assess the real dimension of the effects of social isolation due to COVID-19.

Keywords: social isolation, COVID-19, elderly, mental health

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Authors: Carly Madge, Melanie Zurba, Ryan Bullock

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The Boreal Forest has experienced some of the most drastic climate change-induced temperature rises in Canada, with average winter temperatures increasing by 3°C since 1948. One of the main concerns of the province of Saskatchewan, and particularly wildfire managers, is the increased risk of wildfires due to climate change. With these concerns in mind Sakaw Askiy Management Inc., a forestry corporation located in Prince Albert, Saskatchewan with operations in the Boreal Forest biome, is developing wildfire risk reduction strategies that are supported by the shareholders of the corporation as well as the stakeholders of the Prince Albert Forest Management Area (which includes citizens, hunters, trappers, cottage owners, and outfitters). In the past, wildfire management strategies implemented through harvesting have been received with skepticism by some community members of Prince Albert. Engagement of the stakeholders of the Prince Albert Management Area through the development of the wildfire risk reduction strategies aims to reduce this skepticism and rebuild some of the trust that has been lost between industry and community. This research project works with the framework of social learning, which is defined as the learning that occurs when individuals come together to form a group with the purpose of understanding environmental challenges and determining appropriate responses to them. The project evaluates the social learning processes that occur through the development of the risk reduction strategies and how the learning has allowed Sakaw to work towards implementing the strategies into their forest harvesting plans. The incorporation of wildfire risk reduction strategies works to increase the adaptive capacity of Sakaw, which in this case refers to the ability to adjust to climate change, moderate potential damages, take advantage of opportunities, and cope with consequences. Using semi-structured interviews and wildfire workshop meetings shareholders and stakeholders shared their knowledge of wildfire, their main wildfire concerns, and changes they would like to see made in the Prince Albert Forest Management Area. Interviews and topics discussed in the workshops were inductively coded for themes related to learning, adaptive capacity, areas of concern, and preferred methods of wildfire risk reduction strategies. Analysis determined that some of the learning that has occurred has resulted through social interactions and the development of networks oriented towards wildfire and wildfire risk reduction strategies. Participants have learned new knowledge and skills regarding wildfire risk reduction. The formation of wildfire networks increases access to information on wildfire and the social capital (trust and strengthened relations) of wildfire personnel. Both factors can be attributed to increases in adaptive capacity. Interview results were shared with the General Manager of Sakaw, where the areas of concern and preferred strategies of wildfire risk reduction will be considered and accounted for in the implementation of new harvesting plans. This research also augments the growing conceptual and empirical evidence of the important role of learning and networks in regional wildfire risk management efforts.

Keywords: adaptive capacity, community-engagement, social learning, wildfire risk reduction

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Authors: Dolgormaa Munkhbaatar, Munkhsaikhan Adiya, Tseedulam Khuut

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We performed an inversion method to determine the 1D-velocity model with station corrections of the Gobi-Altai area in the southern part of Mongolia using earthquake data collected in the National Data Center during the last 10 years. In this study, the concept of the new 1D model has been employed to minimize the average RMS of a set of well-located earthquakes, recorded at permanent (between 2006 and 2016) and temporary seismic stations (between 2014 and 2016), compute solutions for the coupled hypocenter and 1D velocity model. We selected 4800 events with RMS less than 0.5 seconds and with a maximum GAP of 170 degrees and determined velocity structures. Also, we relocated all possible events located in the Gobi-Altai area using the new 1D velocity model and achieved constrained hypocentral determinations for events within this area. We concluded that the estimated new 1D velocity model is a relatively low range compared to the previous velocity model in a significant improvement intend to, and the quality of the information basis for future research center locations to determine the earthquake epicenter area with this new transmission model.

Keywords: 1D velocity model, earthquake, relocation, Velest

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Authors: Jordy Padilla

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The New Jersey Department of Transportation (NJDOT) initiated a research project to install and evaluate Ultra-High-Performance Concrete (UHPC) as an overlay on existing bridges. The project aims to implement UHPC overlays in NJDOT bridge deck strategies for preservation and repair. During design, four bridges were selected for construction. The construction involved the removal of the existing bridge asphalt overlays, partially removing the existing concrete deck surface, and resurfacing the deck with a UHPC overlay. In some cases, a new asphalt riding surface was placed. Additionally, existing headers were replaced with full-depth UHPC. The UHPC overlay is monitored through coring and Non-destructive testing (NDT) to ensure that the interfacial bond is intact and that the desired conditions are maintained. The NDT results show no evidence that the bond between the new UHPC overlay and the existing concrete deck is compromised. Bond strength test data demonstrates that, in general, the desired bond was achieved between UHPC and the substrate concrete, although the results were lower than anticipated. Chloride content is also within expectations except for one anomaly. The baseline testing was successful, and no significant defects were encountered.

Keywords: ultra-high performance concrete, rehabilitation, non-destructive testing

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Authors: Karan R. Chavan, Paula Saavalainen, Kumudini V. Marathe, Riitta L. Keiski, Ganapati D. Yadav

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Co-contamination of groundwaters by arsenic in different forms is often observed around the globe. Arsenic is introduced into the waters by several mechanisms and different technologies are proposed and practiced for effective removal. The assessment of three prominent technologies, namely, adsorption, ion exchange and nanofiltration was carried out in this study based on lifecycle methodology. The life of the technologies was divided into two stages: cradle to gate (C-G) and gate to gate (G-G), in order to find out the impacts in different categories of environmental burdens, human health and resource consumption. Life cycle inventory was estimated by use of models and design equations concerning with the different technologies. Regeneration was considered for each technology and over the course of its full lifetime. The impact values of adsorption technology for the C-G stage are greater by thousand times (103) and million times (106) compared to ion exchange and nanofiltration technologies, respectively. The impact of G-G stage of the lifecycle is the major contributor of the impact for all the 3 technologies due to electricity consumption during the operation. Overall, the ion Exchange technology fares well in this study of removal of As (V) only.

Keywords: arsenic, nanofiltration, lifecycle assessment, membrane technology

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Authors: Ishay Wolf

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In this study, the financial position of pension actors in the market during the pension system transition toward a more funded capitalized scheme is explored, mainly via an option benefit model. This is enabled by not considering the economy as a single earning cohort. We analytically demonstrate a socio-economic anomaly in the funded pension system, which is in favor of high earning cohorts on at the expense of low earning cohorts. This anomaly is realized by a lack of insurance and exposure to financial and systemic risks. Furthermore, the anomaly might lead to pension re-reform back to unfunded scheme, mostly due to political pressure. We find that a minimum pension guarantee is a rebalance mechanism to this anomaly, which increases the probability to of the sustainable pension scheme. Specifically, we argue that implementing the guarantee with an intra-generational, risk-sharing mechanism is the most efficient way to reduce the effect of this abnormality. Moreover, we exhibit the convergence process toward implementing minimum pension guarantee in many countries which have capitalized their pension systems during the last three decades, particularly among Latin America and CEE countries.

Keywords: benefits, pension scheme, put option, social security

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Authors: Louis N. Y. Wong

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En-echelon fractures are commonly found in rocks, which appear as a special set of regularly oriented and spaced fractures. By using both experimental and numerical approaches, this study investigates the interaction among them, and how this interaction finally contributes to the development of a shear rupture (fault), especially in brittle natural rocks. Firstly, uniaxial compression tests are conducted on marble specimens containing en-echelon flaws. The latter is cut by using the water abrasive jet into the rock specimens. The fracturing processes of these specimens leading to the formation of a fault are observed in detail by the use of a high speed camera. The influences of the flaw geometry on the production of tensile cracks and shear cracks, which in turn dictate the coalescence patterns of the entire set of en-echelon flaws are comprehensively studied. Secondly, a numerical study based on a recently developed contact model, flat-joint contact model using the discrete element method (DEM) is carried out to model the present laboratory experiments. The numerical results provide a quantitative assessment of the interaction of en-echelon flaws. Particularly, the evolution of the stress field, as well as the characteristics of new crack initiation, propagation and coalescence associated with the generation of an eventual shear rupture are studied in detail. The numerical results are found to agree well with the experimental results obtained in both microscopic and macroscopic observations.

Keywords: discrete element method, en-echelon flaws, fault, marble

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Authors: Omar Dib, Rita Yaacoub, Luc Eveleigh, Nathalie Locquet, Hussein Dib, Ali Bassal, Christophe B. Y. Cordella

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The potential of front-face fluorescence coupled with chemometric techniques, namely parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC) and multiple linear regression (MLR) as a rapid analysis tool to characterize Lebanese virgin olive oils was investigated. Fluorescence fingerprints were acquired directly on 102 Lebanese virgin olive oil samples in the range of 280-540 nm in excitation and 280-700 nm in emission. A PARAFAC model with seven components was considered optimal with a residual of 99.64% and core consistency value of 78.65. The model revealed seven main fluorescence profiles in olive oil and was mainly associated with tocopherols, polyphenols, chlorophyllic compounds and oxidation/hydrolysis products. 23 MLR regression models based on PARAFAC scores were generated, the majority of which showed a good correlation coefficient (R > 0.7 for 12 predicted variables), thus satisfactory prediction performances. Acid values, peroxide values, and Delta K had the models with the highest predictions, with R values of 0.89, 0.84 and 0.81 respectively. Among fatty acids, linoleic and oleic acids were also highly predicted with R values of 0.8 and 0.76, respectively. Factors contributing to the model's construction were related to common fluorophores found in olive oil, mainly chlorophyll, polyphenols, and oxidation products. This study demonstrates the interest of front-face fluorescence as a promising tool for quality control of Lebanese virgin olive oils.

Keywords: front-face fluorescence, Lebanese virgin olive oils, multiple Linear regressions, PARAFAC analysis

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Authors: Meor Othman Hamzah, Lillian Gungat, Nur Izzi Md. Yusoff, Jan Valentin

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The recent hike in raw materials costs and the quest for preservation of the environment has prompted asphalt industries to adopt greener road construction technology. This paper presents a study on such technology by means of asphalt recycling and use of warm mix asphalt (WMA) additive. It evaluates the effects of a WMA named RH-WMA on binder rheological properties and asphalt mixture performance. The recycled asphalt, obtained from local roads, was processed, fractionated, and incorporated with virgin aggregate and binder. For binder testing, the recycled asphalt was extracted and blended with virgin binder. The binder and mixtures specimen containing 30 % and 50 % recycled asphalt contents were mixed with 3 % RH-WMA. The rheological properties of the binder were evaluated based on fundamental, viscosity, and frequency sweep tests. Indirect tensile strength and resilient modulus tests were carried out to assess the mixture’s performances. The rheological properties and strength performance results showed that the addition of RH-WMA slightly reduced the binder and mixtures stiffness. The percentage of recycled asphalt increased the stiffness of binder and mixture, and thus improves the resistance to rutting. Therefore, the integration of recycled asphalt and RH-WMA can be an alternative material for road sustainable construction for countries in the tropics.

Keywords: recycled asphalt, warm mix additive, rheological, mixture performance

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Authors: Teresita Lopez Joy, Jose A. Acevedo Suarez, Martha I. Gomez Acosta, Ana Julia Acevedo Urquiaga

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Current trends in business competitiveness indicate the need to manage businesses as supply chains and not in isolation. The use of strategies aimed at maximum satisfaction of customers in a network and based on inter-company cooperation; contribute to obtaining successful joint results. In the Cuban economic context, the development of productive linkages to achieve integrated management of supply chains is considering a key aspect. In order to achieve this jump, it is necessary to develop acting capabilities in the entities that make up the chains through a systematic procedure that allows arriving at a management model in consonance with the environment. The objective of the research focuses on: designing a model and procedure for the development of integrated management of supply chains in economic entities. The results obtained are: the Model and the Procedure for the Development of the Supply Chains Integrated Management (MP-SCIM). The Model is based on the development of logistics in the network actors, the joint work between companies, collaborative planning and the monitoring of a main indicator according to the end customers. The application Procedure starts from the well-founded need for development in a supply chain and focuses on training entrepreneurs as doers. The characterization and diagnosis is done to later define the design of the network and the relationships between the companies. It takes into account the feedback as a method of updating the conditions and way to focus the objectives according to the final customers. The MP-SCIM is the result of systematic work with a supply chain approach in companies that have consolidated as coordinators of their network. The cases of the edible oil chain and explosives for construction sector reflect results of more remarkable advances since they have applied this approach for more than 5 years and maintain it as a general strategy of successful development. The edible oil trading company experienced a jump in sales. In 2006, the company started the analysis in order to define the supply chain, apply diagnosis techniques, define problems and implement solutions. The involvement of the management and the progressive formation of performance capacities in the personnel allowed the application of tools according to the context. The company that coordinates the explosives chain for construction sector shows adequate training with independence and opportunity in the face of different situations and variations of their business environment. The appropriation of tools and techniques for the analysis and implementation of proposals is a characteristic feature of this case. The coordinating entity applies integrated supply chain management to its decisions based on the timely training of the necessary action capabilities for each situation. Other cases of study and application that validate these tools are also detailed in this paper, and they highlight the results of generalization in the quantitative and qualitative improvement according to the final clients. These cases are: teaching literature in universities, agricultural products of local scope and medicine supply chains.

Keywords: integrated management, logistic system, supply chain management, tactical-operative planning

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Authors: Trudon Kabangu Mpinga, Ruth Mutala, Shaloom Mbambu, Yvette Kalubi Kashama, Kabeya Mukeba Yakasham

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A mathematical model is developed to describe the contact dynamics between the landing gear wheels of an aircraft and a wet pavement during landing. The model is based on nonlinear partial differential equations, using the Yakam Matrix to account for the interaction between solid, liquid, and solid phases. This framework incorporates the influence of environmental factors, particularly water or rain on the runway, on braking performance and aircraft stability. Given the absence of exact analytical solutions, our approach enhances the understanding of key physical phenomena, including Coulomb friction forces, hydrodynamic effects, and the deformation of the pavement under the aircraft's load. Additionally, the dynamics of aquaplaning are simulated numerically to estimate the braking performance limits on wet surfaces, thereby contributing to strategies aimed at minimizing risk during landing on wet runways.

Keywords: aircraft, modeling, simulation, yakam matrix, contact, wet runway

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Authors: Lenka Bodnárová, Rudolf Hela, Michala Hubertová, Iveta Nováková

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This paper is concerning the issues of behaviour of lightweight expanded clay aggregates concrete exposed to high temperature. Lightweight aggregates from expanded clay are produced by firing of row material up to temperature 1050°C. Lightweight aggregates have suitable properties in terms of volume stability, when exposed to temperatures up to 1050°C, which could indicate their suitability for construction applications with higher risk of fire. The test samples were exposed to heat by using the standard temperature-time curve ISO 834. Negative changes in resulting mechanical properties, such as compressive strength, tensile strength, and flexural strength were evaluated. Also visual evaluation of the specimen was performed. On specimen exposed to excessive heat, an explosive spalling could be observed, due to evaporation of considerable amount of unbounded water from the inner structure of the concrete.

Keywords: expanded clay aggregate, explosive spalling, high temperature, lightweight concrete, temperature-time curve ISO 834

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Authors: Konstantinos G. Kostinakis, Asimina M. Athanatopoulou

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A key issue in seismic risk analysis within the context of Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering is the evaluation of the expected seismic damage of structures under a specific earthquake ground motion. The assessment of the seismic performance strongly depends on the choice of the seismic Intensity Measure (IM), which quantifies the characteristics of a ground motion that are important to the nonlinear structural response. Several conventional IMs of ground motion have been used to estimate their damage potential to structures. Yet, none of them has been proved to be able to predict adequately the seismic damage. Therefore, alternative, scalar intensity measures, which take into account not only ground motion characteristics but also structural information have been proposed. Some of these IMs are based on integration of spectral values over a range of periods, in an attempt to account for the information that the shape of the acceleration, velocity or displacement spectrum provides. The adequacy of a number of these IMs in predicting the structural damage of 3D R/C buildings is investigated in the present paper. The investigated IMs, some of which are structure specific and some are nonstructure-specific, are defined via integration of spectral values. To achieve this purpose three symmetric in plan R/C buildings are studied. The buildings are subjected to 59 bidirectional earthquake ground motions. The two horizontal accelerograms of each ground motion are applied along the structural axes. The response is determined by nonlinear time history analysis. The structural damage is expressed in terms of the maximum interstory drift as well as the overall structural damage index. The values of the aforementioned seismic damage measures are correlated with seven scalar ground motion IMs. The comparative assessment of the results revealed that the structure-specific IMs present higher correlation with the seismic damage of the three buildings. However, the adequacy of the IMs for estimation of the structural damage depends on the response parameter adopted. Furthermore, it was confirmed that the widely used spectral acceleration at the fundamental period of the structure is a good indicator of the expected earthquake damage level.

Keywords: damage measures, bidirectional excitation, spectral based IMs, R/C buildings

Procedia PDF Downloads 328