Search results for: probability matrix

Authors: Álvaro Turriago-Hoyos

Abstract:

Most research tends to see innovation as an explanatory factor in achieving high levels of competitiveness and productivity. More recent studies have begun to analyze the determinants of innovation in the services sector as opposed to the much-discussed industrial sector of a country’s economy. This research paper focuses on the services sector in Colombia, one of Latin America’s fastest growing and biggest economies. Over the past decade, much of Colombia’s economic expansion has relied on commodity exports (mainly oil and coffee) whilst the industrial sector has performed relatively poorly. Such developments highlight the potential of the innovative role played by the services sector of the Colombian economy and its future growth prospects. This research paper analyzes the relationship between inputs, which at the same time are internal sources of innovation (such as R&D activities), and external sources that are improved by technology acquisition. The outputs are basically the four kinds of innovation that the OECD Oslo Manual recognizes: product, process, marketing and organizational innovations. The instrument used to measure this input-output relationship is based on Knowledge Production Function approaches. We run Probit models in order to identify the existing relationships between the above inputs and outputs, but also to identify spill-overs derived from interactions of the components of the value chain of the services firms analyzed: customers, suppliers, competitors, and complementary firms. Data are obtained from the Colombian National Administrative Department of Statistics for the period 2008 to 2013 published in the II and III Colombian National Innovation Survey. A short summary of the results obtained lead to conclude that firm size and a firm’s level of technological development turn out to be important discriminating factors for the description of the innovative process at the firm level. The model’s outcomes show a positive impact on the probability of introducing any kind of innovation both on R&D and Technology Acquisition investment. Also, cooperation agreements with customers, research institutes, competitors, and the suppliers are significant. Belonging to a particular industrial group is an important determinant but only to product and organizational innovation. It is possible to establish that Health Services, Education, Computer, Wholesale trade, and Financial Intermediation are the ISIC sectors, which report the highest number of frequencies of the considered set of firms. Those five sectors of the sixteen considered, in all cases, explained more than half of the total of all kinds of innovations. Product Innovation, which is followed by Marketing Innovation, gets the highest results. Displaying the same set of firms distinguishing by size, and belonging to high and low tech services sector shows that the larger the firms the larger a number of innovations, but also that always high-tech firms show a better innovation performance.

Keywords: Colombia, determinants of innovation, innovation, services sector

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Authors: Athina Puype, Lorenzo Malerba, Nico De Wispelaere, Roumen Petrov, Jilt Sietsma

Abstract:

Reduced Activation Ferritic/Martensitic (FM) steels like EUROFER are of interest for first wall application in the future demonstration (DEMO) fusion reactor. Depending on the final design codes for the DEMO reactor, the first wall material will have to function in low-temperature mode or high-temperature mode, i.e. around 250-300°C of above 550°C respectively. However, the use of RAFM steels is limited up to a temperature of about 550°C. For the low-temperature application, the material suffers from irradiation embrittlement, due to a shift of ductile-to-brittle transition temperature (DBTT) towards higher temperatures upon irradiation. The high-temperature response of the material is equally insufficient for long-term use in fusion reactors, due to the instability of the matrix phase and coarsening of the precipitates at prolonged high-temperature exposure. The objective of this study is to investigate the influence of thermal ageing for 1000 hrs and 4000 hrs on microstructural features and mechanical properties of lab-cast EUROFER. Additionally, the ageing behavior of the lab-cast EUROFER is compared with the ageing behavior of standard EUROFER97-2 and T91. The microstructural features were investigated with light optical microscopy (LOM), electron back-scattered diffraction (EBSD) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Additionally, hardness measurements, tensile tests at elevated temperatures and Charpy V-notch impact testing of KLST-type MCVN specimens were performed to study the microstructural features and mechanical properties of four different F/M grades, i.e. T91, EUROFER97-2 and two lab-casted EUROFER grades. After ageing for 1000 hrs, the microstructures exhibit similar martensitic block sizes independent on the grain size before ageing. With respect to the initial coarser microstructures, the aged microstructures displayed a dislocation structure which is partially fragmented by polygonization. On the other hand, the initial finer microstructures tend to be more stable up to 1000hrs resulting in similar grain sizes for the four different steels. Increasing the ageing time to 4000 hrs, resulted in an increase of lath thickness and coarsening of M23C6 precipitates leading to a deterioration of tensile properties.

Keywords: ageing experiments, EUROFER, ferritic/martensitic steels, mechanical properties, microstructure, T91

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Authors: Ayat-Allah Bouramdane

Abstract:

Power generation from offshore wind energy does not emit carbon dioxide or other air pollutants and therefore play a role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector. In addition, these systems are considered more efficient than onshore wind farms, as they generate electricity from the wind blowing across the sea, thanks to the higher wind speed and greater consistency in direction due to the lack of physical interference that the land or human-made objects can present. This means offshore installations require fewer turbines to produce the same amount of energy as onshore wind farms. However, offshore wind farms require more complex infrastructure to support them and, as a result, are more expensive to construct. In addition, higher wind speeds, strong seas, and accessibility issues makes offshore wind farms more challenging to maintain. This study uses a combination of Geographic Referenced Information (GRI) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to identify the most suitable sites for offshore wind farm development in Morocco, with a particular focus on the Dakhla city. A range of environmental, socio-economic, and technical criteria are taken into account to solve this complex Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) problem. Based on experts' knowledge, a pairwise comparison matrix at each level of the hierarchy is performed, and fourteen sub-criteria belong to the main criteria have been weighted to generate the site suitability of offshore wind plants and obtain an in-depth knowledge on unsuitable areas, and areas with low-, moderate-, high- and very high suitability. We find that wind speed is the most decisive criteria in offshore wind farm development, followed by bathymetry, while proximity to facilities, the sediment thickness, and the remaining parameters show much lower weightings rendering technical parameters most decisive in offshore wind farm development projects. We also discuss the potential of other marine renewable energy potential, in Morocco, such as wave and tidal energy. The proposed approach and analysis can help decision-makers and can be applied to other countries in order to support the site selection process of offshore wind farms.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, dakhla, geographic referenced information, morocco, multi-criteria decision-making, offshore wind, site suitability

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Authors: Seung Ah Lee, Sunghyun Cho, Kyong Mee Chung

Abstract:

Rapid population aging became a worldwide demographic phenomenon due to rising life expectancy and declining fertility rates. Considering the current increasing rate of population aging, it is assumed that Korean society enters into a ‘super-aged’ society in 10 years, in which people aged 65 years or older account for more than 20% of entire population. In line with this trend, ICT services aimed to help elderly people to improve the quality of life have been suggested. However, existing ICT services mainly focus on supporting health or nursing care and are somewhat limited to meet a variety of specialized needs and challenges of this population. It is pointed out that the majority of services have been driven by technology-push policies. Given that the usage of ICT services greatly vary on individuals’ socio-economic status (SES), physical and psychosocial needs, this study systematically categorized elderly population into sub-groups and identified their needs and characteristics related to ICT usage in detail. First, three assessment criteria (demographic variables including SES, cognitive functioning level, and emotional functioning level) were identified based on previous literature, experts’ opinions, and focus group interview. Second, survey questions for needs assessment were developed based on the criteria and administered to 600 respondents from a national probability sample. The questionnaire consisted of 67 items concerning demographic information, experience on ICT services and information technology (IT) devices, quality of life and cognitive functioning, etc. As the result of survey, age (60s, 70s, 80s), education level (college graduates or more, middle and high school, less than primary school) and cognitive functioning level (above the cut-off, below the cut-off) were considered the most relevant factors for categorization and 18 sub-groups were identified. Finally, 18 sub-groups were clustered into 3 groups according to following similarities; computer usage rate, difficulties in using ICT, and familiarity with current or previous job. Group 1 (‘active users’) included those who with high cognitive function and educational level in their 60s and 70s. They showed favorable and familiar attitudes toward ICT services and used the services for ‘joyful life’, ‘intelligent living’ and ‘relationship management’. Group 2 (‘potential users’), ranged from age of 60s to 80s with high level of cognitive function and mostly middle to high school graduates, reported some difficulties in using ICT and their expectations were lower than in group 1 despite they were similar to group 1 in areas of needs. Group 3 (‘limited users’) consisted of people with the lowest education level or cognitive function, and 90% of group reported difficulties in using ICT. However, group 3 did not differ from group 2 regarding the level of expectation for ICT services and their main purpose of using ICT was ‘safe living’. This study developed a systematic needs assessment tool and identified three sub-groups of elderly ICT users based on multi-criteria. It is implied that current cognitive function plays an important role in using ICT and determining needs among the elderly population. Implications and limitations were further discussed.

Keywords: elderly population, ICT, needs assessment, population aging

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Authors: Ayesha M. Facey

Abstract:

The evaluation sought to determine the factors associated with the high failure rate among students taking a first-year introductory statistics course. By utilizing Tyler’s Objective Based Model, the main objectives were: to assess the effectiveness of the lecturer’s teaching strategies; to determine the proportion of students who attends lectures and tutorials frequently and to determine the impact of infrequent attendance on performance; to determine how the assigned activities assisted in students understanding of the course content; to ascertain the possible issues being faced by students in understanding the course material and obtain possible solutions to the challenges and to determine whether the learning outcomes have been achieved based on an assessment of the second in-course examination. A quantitative survey research strategy was employed and the study population was students enrolled in semester one of the academic year 2015/2016. A convenience sampling approach was employed resulting in a sample of 98 students. Primary data was collected using self-administered questionnaires over a one-week period. Secondary data was obtained from the results of the second in-course examination. Data were entered and analyzed in SPSS version 22 and both univariate and bivariate analyses were conducted on the information obtained from the questionnaires. Univariate analyses provided description of the sample through means, standard deviations and percentages while bivariate analyses were done using Spearman’s Rho correlation coefficient and Chi-square analyses. For secondary data, an item analysis was performed to obtain the reliability of the examination questions, difficulty index and discriminant index. The examination results also provided information on the weak areas of the students and highlighted the learning outcomes that were not achieved. Findings revealed that students were more likely to participate in lectures than tutorials and that attendance was high for both lectures and tutorials. There was a significant relationship between participation in lectures and performance on examination. However, a high proportion of students has been absent from three or more tutorials as well as lectures. A higher proportion of students indicated that they completed the assignments obtained from the lectures sometimes while they rarely completed tutorial worksheets. Students who were more likely to complete their assignments were significantly more likely to perform well on their examination. Additionally, students faced a number of challenges in understanding the course content and the topics of probability, binomial distribution and normal distribution were the most challenging. The item analysis also highlighted these topics as problem areas. Problems doing mathematics and application and analyses were their major challenges faced by students and most students indicated that some of the challenges could be alleviated if additional examples were worked in lectures and they were given more time to solve questions. Analysis of the examination results showed that a number of learning outcomes were not achieved for a number of topics. Based on the findings recommendations were made that suggested adjustments to grade allocations, delivery of lectures and methods of assessment.

Keywords: evaluation, item analysis, Tyler’s objective based model, university statistics

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Authors: Bangkit Adhi Nugraha, Bambang Suripto

Abstract:

On September 2016 Bank Indonesia (BI) release regulation no.18/18/PBI/2016 that permit bank clients for using the FX option call spread USD/IDR. Basically, this product is a combination between clients buy FX call option (pay premium) and sell FX call option (receive premium) to protect against currency depreciation while also capping the potential upside with cheap premium cost. BI classifies this product as a structured product. The structured product is combination at least two financial instruments, either derivative or non-derivative instruments. The call spread is the first structured product against IDR permitted by BI since 2009 as response the demand increase from Indonesia firms on FX hedging through derivative for protecting market risk their foreign currency asset or liability. The composition of hedging products on Indonesian FX market increase from 35% on 2015 to 40% on 2016, the majority on swap product (FX forward, FX swap, cross currency swap). Swap is formulated by interest rate difference of the two currency pairs. The cost of swap product is 7% for USD/IDR with one year USD/IDR volatility 13%. That cost level makes swap products seem expensive for hedging buyers. Because call spread cost (around 1.5-3%) cheaper than swap, the most Indonesian firms are using NDF FX call spread USD/IDR on offshore with outstanding amount around 10 billion USD. The cheaper cost of call spread is the main advantage for hedging buyers. The problem arises because BI regulation requires the call spread buyer doing the dynamic hedging. That means, if call spread buyer choose strike price 1 and strike price 2 and volatility USD/IDR exchange rate surpass strike price 2, then the call spread buyer must buy another call spread with strike price 1’ (strike price 1’ = strike price 2) and strike price 2’ (strike price 2’ > strike price 1‘). It could make the premium cost of call spread doubled or even more and dismiss the purpose of hedging buyer to find the cheapest hedging cost. It is very crucial for the buyer to choose best optimum strike price before entering into the transaction. To help hedging buyer find the optimum strike price and avoid expensive multiple premium cost, we observe ten years 2005-2015 historical data of USD/IDR volatility to be compared with the price movement of the call spread USD/IDR using Garman–Kohlhagen Model (as a common formula on FX option pricing). We use statistical tools to analysis data correlation, understand nature of call spread price movement over ten years, and determine factors affecting price movement. We select some range of strike price and tenor and calculate the probability of dynamic hedging to occur and how much it’s cost. We found USD/IDR currency pairs is too uncertain and make dynamic hedging riskier and more expensive. We validated this result using one year data and shown small RMS. The study result could be used to understand nature of FX call spread and determine optimum strike price for hedging plan.

Keywords: FX call spread USD/IDR, USD/IDR volatility statistical analysis, Garman–Kohlhagen Model on FX Option USD/IDR, Bank Indonesia Regulation no.18/18/PBI/2016

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Authors: Francesca Marsili

Abstract:

The reliability assessment of existing structures with probabilistic methods is becoming an increasingly important and frequent engineering task. However probabilistic reliability methods are based on an exhaustive knowledge of the stochastic modeling of the variables involved in the assessment; at the moment standards for the modeling of variables are absent, representing an obstacle to the dissemination of probabilistic methods. The framework according to probability distribution functions (PDFs) are established is represented by the Bayesian statistics, which uses Bayes Theorem: a prior PDF for the considered parameter is established based on information derived from the design stage and qualitative judgments based on the engineer past experience; then, the prior model is updated with the results of investigation carried out on the considered structure, such as material testing, determination of action and structural properties. The application of Bayesian statistics arises two different kind of problems: 1. The results of the updating depend on the engineer previous experience; 2. The updating of the prior PDF can be performed only if the structure has been tested, and quantitative data that can be statistically manipulated have been collected; performing tests is always an expensive and time consuming operation; furthermore, if the considered structure is an ancient building, destructive tests could compromise its cultural value and therefore should be avoided. In order to solve those problems, an interesting research path is represented by investigating Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques that can be useful for the automation of the modeling of variables and for the updating of material parameters without performing destructive tests. Among the others, one that raises particular attention in relation to the object of this study is constituted by Case-Based Reasoning (CBR). In this application, cases will be represented by existing buildings where material tests have already been carried out and an updated PDFs for the material mechanical parameters has been computed through a Bayesian analysis. Then each case will be composed by a qualitative description of the material under assessment and the posterior PDFs that describe its material properties. The problem that will be solved is the definition of PDFs for material parameters involved in the reliability assessment of the considered structure. A CBR system represent a good candi¬date in automating the modelling of variables because: 1. Engineers already draw an estimation of the material properties based on the experience collected during the assessment of similar structures, or based on similar cases collected in literature or in data-bases; 2. Material tests carried out on structure can be easily collected from laboratory database or from literature; 3. The system will provide the user of a reliable probabilistic description of the variables involved in the assessment that will also serve as a tool in support of the engineer’s qualitative judgments. Automated modeling of variables can help in spreading probabilistic reliability assessment of existing buildings in the common engineering practice, and target at the best intervention and further tests on the structure; CBR represents a technique which may help to achieve this.

Keywords: reliability assessment of existing buildings, Bayesian analysis, case-based reasoning, historical structures

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Authors: Yadira Tejeda, Wynette Whitegoat, Dylan Jones, Brett Drake

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Background and Purpose: Hispanic and American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN) families impacted by child protective services (CPS) continue to be a population in literature where little is known. There is less known about the fathers of these children and the safety or risk factors attributed to child maltreatment and case outcomes. However, it is known that involving fathers in children’s lives is needed for healthy development, academic achievement, and cognitive development. The few articles that have studied the impacts of engaging fathers in the CPS have found that children in general experience shorter times in foster care, are likely to reunify with their biological family, and overall have better case outcomes. The purpose of this study is to determine whether perpetrators identified as the mother, father, or both impact foster care placement in Hispanic and AI/AN families in CPS. Methods: Using NCANDS Child File data, the selected reports submitted in FY2017 with at least one substantiated allegation, i.e. those with perpetrator information. Reports were categorized into one of three categories: mom-perpetrator-only, father-perpetrator-only, and both. Reports that did not fall into any one of these three categorizations were omitted (<18%). Lastly, only reports where the mother and father self-identified as Hispanic or AI/AN were kept. Foster care placement was measured if any child in the report was placed within three months of the report date. Multilevel Logistic Regression models (random intercepts at the state and county) were used to model the relationship between report-parent type and foster care placement. Controls included Maltreatment types, number of children, any prior reports, and age of the youngest child. Results: For AI/AN reports, 64% were mom-perpetrator-only, 20% were father-perpetrator-only, and 16% both. Father-perpetrator-only reports had 60% lower odds of placement than mom-perpetrator-only, and both had 35% greater odds than mom-only. For Hispanics, 51% were mom-perpetrator-only, 30% father-perpetrator-only, and 19% both. Father-perpetrator-only reports had 74% lower odds than mom-perpetrator-only, and both had 55% greater odds than mom-perpetrator-only. Conclusion and Implications: Fatherhood research focused on prevention and intervention services should include Hispanic and AI/AN fathers to create culturally relevant and tailored services for both groups. By identifying differences in children’s CPS trajectories conditional on fathers’ involvement as a perpetrator, this analysis helps to inform where and how prevention efforts should be focused when considering variation in parental involvement for both populations. The findings indicate that the father’s involvement predicts substantial differences in the probability of future placement, with the direction depending on the mother’s joint involvement. Future research should investigate mediating pathways of these relationships while accounting for the unique experiences of AI/AN and Hispanic families. Each of these racial groups faces unique and differing challenges related to CPS, yet both groups have a shared understanding of the importance of fatherhood in the lives of children. Developing a better understanding of what is happening with Hispanic and AI/AN fathers as it relates to children's CPS experiences may result in new tools to reduce child maltreatment rates in these communities.

Keywords: child Abuse, child maltreatment, NDACAN, latino, native American

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Authors: Motaz Alsolaim

Abstract:

Nowadays, the challenges of running a start-up can be very complex and are perhaps more difficult than at any other time in the past. Changes in technology, manufacturing innovation, and product development, combined with intense competition and market regulations are factors that have put pressure on classic ways of managing firms, thereby forcing change. As a result, the rate of closure, exit or discontinuation of start-ups and young businesses is very high. Despite the essential role of small firms in an economy, they still tend to face obstacles that exert a negative influence on their performance and rate of survival. In fact, it is not easy to determine with any certainty the reasons why small firms fail. For this reason, failure itself is not clearly defined, and its exact causes are hard to diagnose. In this current study, therefore, the barriers to survival will be covered more broadly, especially personal/entrepreneurial, enterprise and environmental factors with regard to various possible reasons for this failure, in order to determine the best solutions and make appropriate recommendations. Methodology: It could be argued that mixed methods might help to improve entrepreneurship research addressing challenges emphasis in previous studies and to achieve the triangulation. Calls for the combined use of quantitative and qualitative research were also made in the entrepreneurship field since entrepreneurship is a multi-faceted area of research. Therefore, explanatory sequential mixed method was used, using questionnaire online survey for entrepreneurs, followed by semi-structure interview. Collecting over 750 surveys and accepting 296 valid surveys, after that 13 interviews from government official seniors, businessmen successful entrepreneurs, and non-successful entrepreneurs. Findings: The first phase findings ( quantitative) shows the obstacles to survive; starting from the personal/ entrepreneurial factors such as; past work experience, lack of skills and interest, are positive factors, while; gender, age and education level of the owner are negative factors. Internal factors such as lack of marketing research and weak business planning are positive. The environmental factors; in economic perspectives; difficulty to find labors, in socio-cultural perspectives; Social restriction and traditions found to be a negative factors. In other hand, from the political perspective; cost of compliance and insufficient government plans found to be a positive factors for small business failure. From infrastructure perspective; lack of skills labor, high level of bureaucracy and lack of information are positive factors. Conclusion: This paper serves to enrich the understanding of failure factors in MENA region more precisely in SA, by minimizing the probability of failure in small-micro entrepreneurial start-up in SA, in the light of the Saudi government’s Vision 2030 plan.

Keywords: small business barriers, start-up business, entrepreneurship, Saudi Arabia

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Authors: Kai Warsoenke, Maik Mackiewicz

Abstract:

To achieve a high quality of assembled car body structures, tolerancing is used to ensure a geometric accuracy of the single car body parts. There are two main techniques to determine the required tolerances. The first is tolerance analysis which describes the influence of individually tolerated input values on a required target value. Second is tolerance synthesis to determine the location of individual tolerances to achieve a target value. Both techniques are based on classical statistical methods, which assume certain probability distributions. To ensure competitiveness in both saturated and dynamic markets, production processes in vehicle manufacturing must be flexible and efficient. The dimensional specifications selected for the individual body components and the resulting assemblies have a major influence of the quality of the process. For example, in the manufacturing of forming tools as operating equipment or in the higher level of car body assembly. As part of the metrological process monitoring, manufactured individual parts and assemblies are recorded and the measurement results are stored in databases. They serve as information for the temporary adjustment of the production processes and are interpreted by experts in order to derive suitable adjustments measures. In the production of forming tools, this means that time-consuming and costly changes of the tool surface have to be made, while in the body shop, uncertainties that are difficult to control result in cost-intensive rework. The stored measurement results are not used to intelligently design tolerances in future processes or to support temporary decisions based on real-world geometric data. They offer potential to extend the tolerancing methods through data analysis and machine learning models. The purpose of this paper is to examine real-world measurement data from individual car body components, as well as assemblies, in order to develop an approach for using the data in short-term actions and future projects. For this reason, the measurement data will be analyzed descriptively in the first step in order to characterize their behavior and to determine possible correlations. In the following, a database is created that is suitable for developing machine learning models. The objective is to create an intelligent way to determine the position and number of measurement points as well as the local tolerance range. For this a number of different model types are compared and evaluated. The models with the best result are used to optimize equally distributed measuring points on unknown car body part geometries and to assign tolerance ranges to them. The current results of this investigation are still in progress. However, there are areas of the car body parts which behave more sensitively compared to the overall part and indicate that intelligent tolerancing is useful here in order to design and control preceding and succeeding processes more efficiently.

Keywords: automotive production, machine learning, process optimization, smart tolerancing

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Authors: Ramalan Musa Yerima

Abstract:

The paper titled “loading by number” explained a strategy developed recently by Zonal Commanding Officer of the Federal Road Safety Corps of Nigeria, covering Sokoto, Kebbi and Zamfara States of Northern Nigeria. The strategy is aimed at reducing competition, which will invariably leads to the reduction in speed, reduction in dangerous driving, reduction in crash rate, reduction in injuries, reduction in property damages and reduction in death through road traffic crashes (RTC). This research paper presents a study focused on enhancing the safety of commercial vehicles. The background of this study highlights the alarming statistics related to commercial vehicle crashes in Nigeria with focus on Sokoto, Kebbi and Zamfara States, which often result in significant damage to property, loss of lives, and economic costs. The significance and aims is to investigate and propose effective strategy to enhance the safety of commercial vehicles. The study recognizes the pressing need for heightened safety measures in commercial transportation, as it impacts not only the well-being of drivers and passengers but also the overall public safety. To achieve the objectives, an examination of accident data, including causes and contributing factors, was performed to identify critical areas for improvement. The major finding of the study reveals that when competition comes into play within the realm of commercial driving, it has detrimental effects on road safety and resource management. Commercial drivers are pushed to complete their routes quickly, deliver goods on time or they pushed themselves to arrive quickly for more passengers and new contracts. This competitive environment, fuelled by internal and external pressures such as tight deadlines, poverty and greed, often leads to sad endings. The study recommend that if a strategy called loading by number is integrated with other multiple safety measures such as driver training programs, regulatory enforcement, and infrastructure improvements, commercial vehicle safety can be significantly enhanced. "Loading by Number” approach is design to ensure that the sequence of departure of drivers from motor park ‘A’ would be communicated to motor park officials of park ‘B’, which would be considered sequentially when giving them returning passengers, regardless of the first to arrive. In conclusion, this paper underscores the significance of improving the safety measures of commercial vehicles, as they are often larger and heavier than other vehicles on the road. Whenever they are involved in accidents, the consequences can be more severe. Commercial vehicles are also frequently involved in long-haul or interstate transportation, which means they cover longer distances and spend more time on the road. This increased exposure to driving conditions increases the probability of accidents occurring. By implementing the suggested measures, policymakers, transportation authorities, and industry stakeholders can work collectively towards ensuring a safer commercial transportation system.

Keywords: commercial, safety, strategy, transportation

Procedia PDF Downloads 41

Authors: Eugene Y. J. Aw, J. W. Koh, S. H. Chew, K. E. Chua, Lionel L. J. Ang, Algernon C. S. Hong, Danette S. E. Tan, Grace H. B. Foo, K. Q. Hong, L. M. Cheng, M. L. Leong

Abstract:

This paper presents a novel rapid soil classification technique that combines computer vision with four-probe soil electrical resistivity method and cone penetration test (CPT), to improve the accuracy and productivity of on-site classification of excavated soil. In Singapore, excavated soils from local construction projects are transported to Staging Grounds (SGs) to be reused as fill material for land reclamation. Excavated soils are mainly categorized into two groups (“Good Earth” and “Soft Clay”) based on particle size distribution (PSD) and water content (w) from soil investigation reports and on-site visual survey, such that proper treatment and usage can be exercised. However, this process is time-consuming and labour-intensive. Thus, a rapid classification method is needed at the SGs. Computer vision, four-probe soil electrical resistivity and CPT were combined into an innovative non-destructive and instantaneous classification method for this purpose. The computer vision technique comprises soil image acquisition using industrial grade camera; image processing and analysis via calculation of Grey Level Co-occurrence Matrix (GLCM) textural parameters; and decision-making using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Complementing the computer vision technique, the apparent electrical resistivity of soil (ρ) is measured using a set of four probes arranged in Wenner’s array. It was found from the previous study that the ANN model coupled with ρ can classify soils into “Good Earth” and “Soft Clay” in less than a minute, with an accuracy of 85% based on selected representative soil images. To further improve the technique, the soil strength is measured using a modified mini cone penetrometer, and w is measured using a set of time-domain reflectometry (TDR) probes. Laboratory proof-of-concept was conducted through a series of seven tests with three types of soils – “Good Earth”, “Soft Clay” and an even mix of the two. Validation was performed against the PSD and w of each soil type obtained from conventional laboratory tests. The results show that ρ, w and CPT measurements can be collectively analyzed to classify soils into “Good Earth” or “Soft Clay”. It is also found that these parameters can be integrated with the computer vision technique on-site to complete the rapid soil classification in less than three minutes.

Keywords: Computer vision technique, cone penetration test, electrical resistivity, rapid and non-destructive, soil classification

Procedia PDF Downloads 187

Authors: Ramalan Musa Yerima

Abstract:

The paper titled “Loading by number” explained a strategy developed recently by the Zonal Commanding Officer of the Federal Road Safety Corps of Nigeria, covering Sokoto, Kebbi and Zamfara States of Northern Nigeria. The strategy is aimed at reducing competition, which will invariably lead to a reduction in speed, reduction in dangerous driving, reduction in crash rate, reduction in injuries, reduction in property damages and reduction in death through road traffic crashes (RTC). This research paper presents a study focused on enhancing the safety of commercial vehicles. The background of this study highlights the alarming statistics related to commercial vehicle crashes in Nigeria with a focus on Sokoto, Kebbi and Zamfara States, which often result in significant damage to property, loss of lives, and economic costs. The significance and aims is to investigate and propose an effective strategy to enhance the safety of commercial vehicles. The study recognizes the pressing need for heightened safety measures in commercial transportation, as it impacts not only the well-being of drivers and passengers but also the overall public safety. To achieve the objectives, an examination of accident data, including causes and contributing factors, was performed to identify critical areas for improvement. The major finding of the study reveals that when competition comes into play within the realm of commercial driving, it has detrimental effects on road safety and resource management. Commercial drivers are pushed to complete their routes quickly and deliver goods on time, or they push themselves to arrive quickly for more passengers and new contracts. This competitive environment, fuelled by internal and external pressures such as tight deadlines, poverty and greed, often leads to sad endings. The study recommends that if a strategy called loading by number is integrated with other multiple safety measures, such as driver training programs, regulatory enforcement, and infrastructure improvements, commercial vehicle safety can be significantly enhanced. "Loading by Number” approach is designed to ensure that the sequence of departure of drivers from the motor park ‘A’ would be communicated to motor park officials of park ‘B’, which would be considered sequentially when giving them returning passengers, regardless of the first to arrive. In conclusion, this paper underscores the significance of improving the safety measures of commercial vehicles, as they are often larger and heavier than other vehicles on the road. Whenever they are involved in accidents, the consequences can be more severe. Commercial vehicles are also frequently involved in long-haul or interstate transportation, which means they cover longer distances and spend more time on the road. This increased exposure to driving conditions increases the probability of accidents occurring. By implementing the suggested measures, policymakers, transportation authorities, and industry stakeholders can work collectively toward ensuring a safer commercial transportation system.

Keywords: commercial, safety, strategy, transport

Procedia PDF Downloads 45

Authors: Abir O. El Sadik

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Introduction: Wound healing involves the interaction of multiple biological processes among different types of cells, intercellular matrix and specific signaling factors producing enhancement of cell proliferation of the epidermis over dermal granulation tissue. Several studies investigated multiple strategies to promote wound healing and to minimize infection and fluid losses. However, burn crisis, and its related morbidity and mortality are still elevated. The aim of the present study was to examine the effects of mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) in accelerating wound healing and to compare the most efficient route of administration of MSCs, either intradermal or systemic injection, with focusing on the mechanisms producing epidermal and dermal cell regeneration. Material and methods: Forty-two adult male Sprague Dawley albino rats were divided into three equal groups (fourteen rats in each group): control group (group I); full thickness surgical skin wound model, Group II: Wound treated with systemic injection of MSCs and Group III: Wound treated with intradermal injection of MSCs. The healing ulcer was examined on day 2, 6, 10 and 15 for gross morphological evaluation and on day 10 and 15 for fluorescent, histological and immunohistochemical studies. Results: The wounds of the control group did not reach complete closure up to the end of the experiment. In MSCs treated groups, better and faster healing of wounds were detected more than the control group. Moreover, the intradermal route of administration of stem cells increased the rate of healing of the wounds more than the systemic injection. In addition, the wounds were found completely healed by the end of the fifteenth day of the experiment in all rats of the group injected intradermally. Microscopically, the wound areas of group III were hardly distinguished from the adjacent normal skin with complete regeneration of all skin layers; epidermis, dermis, hypodermis and underlying muscle layer. Fully regenerated hair follicles and sebaceous glands in the dermis of the healed areas surrounded by different arrangement of collagen fibers with a significant increase in their area percent were recorded in this group more than in other groups. Conclusion: MSCs accelerate the healing process of wound closure. The route of administration of MSCs has a great influence on wound healing as intradermal injection of MSCs was more effective in enhancement of wound healing than systemic injection.

Keywords: intradermal, mesenchymal stem cells, morphology, skin wound, systemic injection

Procedia PDF Downloads 181

Authors: Reenu Yadav, Abhay Asthana, S. K. Yadav

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Purpose: The aim of the present work was to develop an oral gel for brushing with an antimicrobial activity which will cure/protect from various periodontal diseases such as periodontitis, gingivitis, and pyorrhea. Methods: Plant materials procured from local suppliers, extracted and standardized. Screening of antimicrobial activity was carried out with the help of disk diffusion method. The gel was formulated by dried extracts of Beautea monosperma and Cordia obliquus. Gels were evaluated on various parameters and standardization of the formulation was performed. The release of drugs was studied in pH 6.8 using a mastication device.Total phenolic and flavonoid contents were estimated by folin-Ciocalteu and aluminium chloride method, and stability studies were performed (40°C and RH 75% ± 5% for 90 days) to assess the effect of temperature and humidity on the concentration of phenolic and flavonoid contents. The results of accelerated stability conditions were compared with that of samples kept at controlled conditions (RT). The control samples were kept at room temperature (25°C, 35% RH for 180 days). Results: Results are encouraging; extracts possess significant antimicrobial activity at very low concentration (15µg/disc, 20µg/disc and 15 µg/ disc) on oral pathogenic bacteria. The formulation has optimal characteristics, as well as has a pleasant appearance, fragrance, texture, and taste, is highly acceptable by the volunteers. The diffusion coefficient values ranged from 0.6655 to 0.9164. Since the R values of korsmayer papas were close to 1, Drug release from formulation follows matrix diffusion kinetics. Hence, diffusion was the mechanism of the drug release. Formulation follows non-Fickian transport mechanism. Most Formulations released 50 % of their contents within 25-30 minutes. Results obtained from the accelerated stability studies are indicative of a slight reduction in flavonoids and phenolic contents with time on long time storage. When measured degradation under ambient conditions, degradation was significantly lower than in accelerated stability study. Conclusion: Plant extracts possess compounds with antimicrobial properties can be used as. Developed formulation will cure/protect from various periodontal diseases. Further development and evaluations oral gel including the isolated compounds on the commercial scale and their clinical and toxicological studies are the future challenges.

Keywords: herbal gel, dental care, ambient conditions, commercial scale

Procedia PDF Downloads 424

Authors: Ahmed S. Fayed, Umima M. Mansour

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Three polyvinyl chloride membrane sensors were developed for the electrochemical evaluation of ferrous, manganese and zinc ions. The sensors were used for assaying metal ions in cervical mucus (CM) of Egyptian river buffalo-cows (Bubalus bubalis) as their levels vary dependent on cyclical hormone variation during different phases of estrus cycle. The presented sensors are based on using ionophores, β-cyclodextrin (β-CD), hydroxypropyl β-cyclodextrin (HP-β-CD) and sulfocalix-4-arene (SCAL) for sensors 1, 2 and 3 for Fe²⁺, Mn²⁺ and Zn²⁺, respectively. Dioctyl phthalate (DOP) was used as the plasticizer in a polymeric matrix of polyvinylchloride (PVC). For increasing the selectivity and sensitivity of the sensors, each sensor was enriched with a suitable complexing agent, which enhanced the sensor’s response. For sensor 1, β-CD was mixed with bathophenanthroline; for sensor 2, porphyrin was incorporated with HP-β-CD; while for sensor 3, oxine was the used complexing agent with SCAL. Linear responses of 10^-7-10^-2 M with cationic slopes of 53.46, 45.01 and 50.96 over pH range 4-8 were obtained using coated graphite sensors for ferrous, manganese and zinc ionic solutions, respectively. The three sensors were validated, according to the IUPAC guidelines. The obtained results by the presented potentiometric procedures were statistically analyzed and compared with those obtained by atomic absorption spectrophotometric method (AAS). No significant differences for either accuracy or precision were observed between the two techniques. Successful application for the determination of the three studied cations in CM, for the purpose to determine the proper time for artificial insemination (AI) was achieved. The results were compared with those obtained upon analyzing the samples by AAS. Proper detection of estrus and correct time of AI was necessary to maximize the production of buffaloes. In this experiment, 30 multi-parous buffalo-cows were in second to third lactation and weighting 415-530 kg, and were synchronized with OVSynch protocol. Samples were taken in three times around ovulation, on day 8 of OVSynch protocol, on day 9 (20 h before AI) and on day 10 (1 h before AI). Beside analysis of trace elements (Fe²⁺, Mn²⁺ and Zn²⁺) in CM using the three sensors, the samples were analyzed for the three cations and also Cu²⁺ by AAS in the CM samples and blood samples. The results obtained were correlated with hormonal analysis of serum samples and ultrasonography for the purpose of determining of the optimum time of AI. The results showed significant differences and powerful correlation with Zn²⁺ composition of CM during heat phase and the ovulation time, indicating that the parameter could be used as a tool to decide optimal time of AI in buffalo-cows.

Keywords: PVC Sensors, buffalo-cows, cyclodextrins, atomic absorption spectrophotometry, artificial insemination, OVSynch protocol

Procedia PDF Downloads 200

Authors: Dhruvit S. Berawala, Jann R. Ursin, Obrad Slijepcevic

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Shale gas is one of the most rapidly growing forms of natural gas. Unconventional natural gas deposits are difficult to characterize overall, but in general are often lower in resource concentration and dispersed over large areas. Moreover, gas is densely packed into the matrix through adsorption which accounts for large volume of gas reserves. Gas production from tight shale deposits are made possible by extensive and deep well fracturing which contacts large fractions of the formation. The conventional reservoir modelling and production forecasting methods, which rely on fluid-flow processes dominated by viscous forces, have proved to be very pessimistic and inaccurate. This paper presents a new approach to forecast shale gas production by detailed modeling of gas desorption, diffusion and non-linear flow mechanisms in combination with statistical representation of these processes. The representation of the model involves a cube as a porous media where free gas is present and a sphere (SiC: Sphere in Cube model) inside it where gas is adsorbed on to the kerogen or organic matter. Further, the sphere is considered consisting of many layers of adsorbed gas in an onion-like structure. With pressure decline, the gas desorbs first from the outer most layer of sphere causing decrease in its molecular concentration. The new available surface area and change in concentration triggers the diffusion of gas from kerogen. The process continues until all the gas present internally diffuses out of the kerogen, gets adsorbs onto available surface area and then desorbs into the nanopores and micro-fractures in the cube. Each SiC idealizes a gas pathway and is characterized by sphere diameter and length of the cube. The diameter allows to model gas storage, diffusion and desorption; the cube length takes into account the pathway for flow in nanopores and micro-fractures. Many of these representative but general cells of the reservoir are put together and linked to a well or hydraulic fracture. The paper quantitatively describes these processes as well as clarifies the geological conditions under which a successful shale gas production could be expected. A numerical model has been derived which is then compiled on FORTRAN to develop a simulator for the production of shale gas by considering the spheres as a source term in each of the grid blocks. By applying SiC to field data, we demonstrate that the model provides an effective way to quickly access gas production rates from shale formations. We also examine the effect of model input properties on gas production.

Keywords: adsorption, diffusion, non-linear flow, shale gas production

Procedia PDF Downloads 148

Authors: Katarzyna Drela, Miroslaw Wielgos, Mikolaj Wrobel, Barbara Lukomska

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Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) have a great potential in regenerative medicine. Since the initial number of isolated MSCs is limited, in vitro propagation is often required to reach sufficient numbers of cells for therapeutic applications. During long-term culture MSCs may undergo genetic or epigenetic alterations that subsequently increase the probability of spontaneous malignant transformation. Thus, factors that influence genomic stability of MSCs following long-term expansions need to be clarified before cultured MSCs are employed for clinical application. The aim of our study was to investigate the potential for spontaneous transformation of human neonatal cord blood (HUCB-MSCs) and adult bone marrow (BM-MSCs) derived MSCs. Materials and Methods: HUCB-MSCs and BM-MSCs were isolated by standard Ficoll gradient centrifugations method. Isolated cells were initially plated in high density 106 cells per cm2. After 48 h medium were changed and non-adherent cells were removed. The malignant transformation of MSCs in vitro was evaluated by morphological changes, proliferation rate, ability to enter cell senescence, the telomerase expression and chromosomal abnormality. Proliferation of MSCs was analyzed with WST-1 reduction method and population doubling time (PDT) was calculated at different culture stages. Then the expression pattern of genes characteristic for mesenchymal or epithelial cells, as well as transcriptions factors were examined by RT-PCR. Concomitantly, immunocytochemical analysis of gene-related proteins was employed. Results: Our studies showed that MSCs from all bone marrow isolations ultimately entered senescence and did not undergo spontaneous malignant transformation. However, HUCB-MSCs from one of the 15 donors displayed an increased proliferation rate, failed to enter senescence, and exhibited an altered cell morphology. In this sample we observed two different cell phenotypes: one mesenchymal-like exhibited spindle shaped morphology and express specific mesenchymal surface markers (CD73, CD90, CD105, CD166) with low proliferation rate, and the second one with round, densely package epithelial-like cells with significantly increased proliferation rate. The PDT of epithelial-like populations was around 1day and 100% of cells were positive for proliferation marker Ki-67. Moreover, HUCB-MSCs showed a positive expression of human telomerase reverse transcriptase (hTERT), cMYC and exhibit increased number of CFU during the long-term culture in vitro. Furthermore, karyotype analysis revealed chromosomal abnormalities including duplications. Conclusions: Our studies demonstrate that HUCB-MSCs are susceptible to spontaneous malignant transformation during long-term culture. Spontaneous malignant transformation process following in vitro culture has enormous effect on the biosafety issues of future cell-based therapies and regenerative medicine regimens.

Keywords: mesenchymal stem cells, spontaneous, transformation, long-term culture

Procedia PDF Downloads 238

Authors: Temple Probyne Abali

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Port Harcourt, Rivers State in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria is bedeviled by the phenomenon of climatechange, posing threat to food security and livelihood. This study examined a 4 decadel (1980-2020) trend of climate change as well as its socio-economic impact on food security in the region. Furthermore, to achieve sustainable food security and livelihood amidst the phenomenon, the study adopted the World Bank Assisted Third National Fadama Development Programme approach. The data source for climate change involved secondary data from Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NIMET). Consequently, the results for climate change over the 4decade period were displayed in tables, charts and maps for the expected changes. Data sources on socio-economic impact of food security and livelihood were acquired through questionnairedesign. A purposive random sampling technique was used in selecting 5 coastal communities inthe region known for viable economic potentials for agricultural development and the resultswere analyzed using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). The Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) technique of the World Bank for needs assessment wasadopted in selecting 5 agricultural sub-project proposals/activities based on groups’ commoneconomic interest from a total of 1,000 farmers each drawn from the 5 communities of differentage groups including men, women, youths and the vulnerable. Based on the farmers’ sub-projectinterests, the various groups’ Strength, Weakness, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT), Problem Listing Matrix, Skill Gap Analysis as well as EIAson their sub-project proposals/activities were analyzed with substantialMonitoring and Evaluation (M & E), using the Specific, Measurable, Attribute, Reliable and Time bound (SMART)approach. Based on the findings from the PRA technique, the farmers recorded considerableincreaseinincomeofover200%withinthe5yearprojectplan(2008-2013).Thestudyrecommends capacity building and advisory services on this PRA innovation. By so doing, there would be a sustainable increase in agricultural production and assured food security in an environmental friendly manner, in line with the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs).

Keywords: climate change, food security, fadama, world bank, agriculture, sdgs

Procedia PDF Downloads 76

Authors: Eszter Kulcsar, Agnes Takacs, Gabriella B. Kiss, Peter Prakfalvi

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The Karancs Mountain is part of the Miocene Inner Carpathian Volcanic Belt and is located in N-NE Hungary, along the Hungarian-Slovakian border. The 14 Ma old andesitic-dacitic units are surrounded by Oligocene sedimentary units (sandstone, siltstone). The host rocks of the mineralisation are siliceous and/or argillaceous volcanic units, quartz veins, hydrothermal breccia, and strongly silicified vuggy rocks, found in the various altered volcanic units. The hydrothermal breccia consists of highly silicified vuggy quartz clasts in quartz matrix. The hydrothermal alteration of the host units shows structural control at the deeper levels. The main ore minerals are galena, pyrite, marcasite, sphalerite, hematite, magnetite, arsenopyrite, anglesite and argentite The mineralisation was first mentioned in 1944 and the first exploration took place between 1961 and 1962 in the area. The first ore geological studies were performed between 1984-1985. The exploration programme was limited only to surface sampling; no drilling programme was performed. Petrographical and preliminary fluid inclusion studies were performed on calcite samples from a galena-bearing vein. Despite the early discovery of the mineralisation, no detailed description is available, thus its size, characteristics, and origin have remained unknown. The aim of this study is to examine the mineralisation, describe the characteristics in detail and to test the possible gold content of the various quartz veins and breccias. Finally, we also investigate the potential relation of the hydrothermal mineralisation to the surrounding similar mineralisations with similar ages (e.g. W-Mátra Mountains in Hungary, Banska Bystrica, Banska Stiavnica in Slovakia) in order to place the mineralisation within the volcanic-hydrothermal evolution of the Miocene Inner Carpathian Belt. As first steps, the study includes field mapping, traditional petrological and ore microscopy; X-ray diffraction analysis; SEM-EDS and EMPA studies on ore minerals, to obtain mineral chemical information. Fluid inclusion petrography and microthermometry and micro-Raman-spectroscopy studies are also planned on quartz-hosted inclusions to investigate the physical and chemical properties of the ore-forming fluid.

Keywords: epithermal, Karancs Mountain, Hungary, Miocene Inner Carpathian volcanic belt, polimetallic ore deposit

Procedia PDF Downloads 115

Authors: Mohamad Molavi Nojumi, Xiaodong Wang

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In this research fracture behaviour of linear elastic isotropic functionally graded materials (FGMs) are investigated using modified finite element method (FEM). FGMs are advantageous because they enhance the bonding strength of two incompatible materials, and reduce the residual stress and thermal stress. Ceramic/metals are a main type of FGMs. Ceramic materials are brittle. So, there is high possibility of crack existence during fabrication or in-service loading. In addition, damage analysis is necessary for a safe and efficient design. FEM is a strong numerical tool for analyzing complicated problems. Thus, FEM is used to investigate the fracture behaviour of FGMs. Here an accurate 9-node biquadratic quadrilateral graded element is proposed in which the influence of the variation of material properties is considered at the element level. The stiffness matrix of graded elements is obtained using the principle of minimum potential energy. The implementation of graded elements prevents the forced sudden jump of material properties in traditional finite elements for modelling FGMs. Numerical results are verified with existing solutions. Different numerical simulations are carried out to model stationary crack problems in nonhomogeneous plates. In these simulations, material variation is supposed to happen in directions perpendicular and parallel to the crack line. Two special linear and exponential functions have been utilized to model the material gradient as they are mostly discussed in literature. Also, various sizes of the crack length are considered. A major difference in the fracture behaviour of FGMs and homogeneous materials is related to the break of material symmetry. For example, when the material gradation direction is normal to the crack line, even under applying the mode I loading there exists coupled modes I and II of fracture which originates from the induced shear in the model. Therefore, the necessity of the proper modelling of the material variation should be considered in capturing the fracture behaviour of FGMs specially, when the material gradient index is high. Fracture properties such as mode I and mode II stress intensity factors (SIFs), energy release rates, and field variables near the crack tip are investigated and compared with results obtained using conventional homogeneous elements. It is revealed that graded elements provide higher accuracy with less effort in comparison with conventional homogeneous elements.

Keywords: finite element, fracture mechanics, functionally graded materials, graded element

Procedia PDF Downloads 155

Authors: Elena Collino, Dario A. Ronzio, Goffredo Decimi, Maurizio Riva

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The rapid increase of renewable energy in Italy is led by wind and solar installations. The 2017 Italian energy strategy foresees a further development of these sustainable technologies, especially solar. This fact has resulted in new opportunities, challenges, and different problems to deal with. The growth of renewables allows to meet the European requirements regarding energy and environmental policy, but these types of sources are difficult to manage because they are intermittent and non-programmable. Operationally, these characteristics can lead to instability on the voltage profile and increasing uncertainty on energy reserve scheduling. The increasing renewable production must be considered with more and more attention especially by the Transmission System Operator (TSO). The TSO, in fact, every day provides orders on energy dispatch, once the market outcome has been determined, on extended areas, defined mainly on the basis of power transmission limitations. In Italy, six market zone are defined: Northern-Italy, Central-Northern Italy, Central-Southern Italy, Southern Italy, Sardinia, and Sicily. An accurate hourly renewable power forecasting for the day-ahead on these extended areas brings an improvement both in terms of dispatching and reserve management. In this study, an operational forecasting tool of the hourly solar output for the six Italian market zones is presented, and the performance is analysed. The implementation is carried out by means of a numerical weather prediction model, coupled with a statistical post-processing in order to derive the power forecast on the basis of the meteorological projection. The weather forecast is obtained from the limited area model RAMS on the Italian territory, initialized with IFS-ECMWF boundary conditions. The post-processing calculates the solar power production with the Analog Ensemble technique (AN). This statistical approach forecasts the production using a probability distribution of the measured production registered in the past when the weather scenario looked very similar to the forecasted one. The similarity is evaluated for the components of the solar radiation: global (GHI), diffuse (DIF) and direct normal (DNI) irradiation, together with the corresponding azimuth and zenith solar angles. These are, in fact, the main factors that affect the solar production. Considering that the AN performance is strictly related to the length and quality of the historical data a training period of more than one year has been used. The training set is made by historical Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts at 12 UTC for the GHI, DIF and DNI variables over the Italian territory together with corresponding hourly measured production for each of the six zones. The AN technique makes it possible to estimate the aggregate solar production in the area, without information about the technologic characteristics of the all solar parks present in each area. Besides, this information is often only partially available. Every day, the hourly solar power forecast for the six Italian market zones is made publicly available through a website.

Keywords: analog ensemble, electricity market, PV forecast, solar energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 128

Authors: H. Pegram, R. Stevens, L. De Girolamo

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Aligned electrospun nanofibres act as effective neuronal and glial cell scaffolds that can be layered to contain multiple sheets harboring different cell populations. This allows personalised biofunctional prostheses to be manufactured with both acellular and cellularised layers for the treatment of spinal cord injury. Additionally, the manufacturing route may be configured to produce in-vitro 3D cell based model of spinal cord injury to aid drug development and enhance prosthesis performance. The goal of this investigation was to optimise the multi-layer scaffold design parameters for prosthesis manufacture, to enable the development of multi-layer patient specific implant therapies. The work has also focused on the fabricating aligned nanofibre scaffolds that promote in-vitro neuronal and glial cell population growth, cell-to-cell interaction and long-term survival following trauma to mimic an in-vivo spinal cord lesion. The approach has established reproducible lesions and has identified markers of trauma and regeneration marked by effective neuronal migration across the lesion with glial support. The investigation has advanced the development of an in-vitro model of traumatic spinal cord injury and has identified a route to manufacture prostheses which target the repair spinal cord injury. Evidence collated to investigate the multi-layer concept suggests that physical cues provided by nanofibres provide both a natural extra-cellular matrix (ECM) like environment and controls cell proliferation and migration. Specifically, aligned nanofibre layers act as a guidance system for migrating and elongating neurons. On a larger scale, material type in multi-layer systems also has an influence in inter-layer migration as cell types favour different material types. Results have shown that layering nanofibre membranes create a multi-level scaffold system which can enhance or prohibit cell migration between layers. It is hypothesised that modifying nanofibre layer material permits control over neuronal/glial cell migration. Using this concept, layering of neuronal and glial cells has become possible, in the context of tissue engineering and also modelling in-vitro induced lesions.

Keywords: electrospinning, layering, lesion, modeling, nanofibre

Procedia PDF Downloads 115

Authors: Emir Sunguroglu, Merve Sunguroglu, Yesim Aliefendioglu, Harun Tanrivermis

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Basic human needs range from physiological needs such as food, water and shelter to safety needs such as security, protection from natural disasters and even urban terrorism which are extant and not fulfilled even in urban areas where people live civilly in large communities. These basic needs when arose in urban life lead to a different kind of crime set defined as urban crimes. Urban crimes mostly result from differences between socioeconomic conditions in society. Income inequality increases tendency towards urban crimes. Especially in slum areas and suburbs, urban crimes not only threaten public security but they also affect deliverance of public services. It is highlighted that, construction of urban security against problems caused by urban crimes is not only achieved by involvement of urban security in security of the community but also comprises juridical development and staying above a level of legal standards concurrently. The idea of urban transformation emerged as interventions to demolishment and rebuilding of built environment to solve the unhealthy urban environment, inadequate infrastructure and socioeconomic problems came up during the industrialization process. Considering the probability of urbanization process driving citizens to commit crimes, The United Nations Commission on Human Security’s focus on this theme is conferred to be a proper approach. In this study, the analysis and change in security before, through and after urban transformation, which is one of the tools related to urbanization process, is strived to be discussed through the case of Sincan County Saraycik District. The study also aims to suggest improvements to current legislation on public safety, urban resilience, and urban transformation. In spite of Saraycik District residing in a developing County in Ankara, Turkey, from urbanization perspective as well as socioeconomic and demographic indicators the District exhibits a negative view throughout the County and the country. When related to the county, rates of intentional harm reports, burglary reports, the offense of libel and threat reports and narcotic crime reports are higher. The District is defined as ‘crime hotspot’. Interviews with residents of Saraycik claim that the greatest issue of the neighborhood is Public Order and Security (82.44 %). The District becomes prominent with negative aspects, especially with the presence of unlicensed constructions, occurrence of important social issues such as crime and insecurity and complicated lives of inhabitants from poverty and low standard conditions of living. Additionally, the social structure and demographic properties and crime and insecurity of the field have been addressed in this study. Consequently, it is claimed that urban crime rates were related to level of education, employment and household income, poverty trap, physical condition of housing and structuration, accessibility of public services, security, migration, safety in terms of disasters and emphasized that urban transformation is one of the most important tools in order to provide urban security.

Keywords: urban security, urban crimes, urban transformation, Saraycik district

Procedia PDF Downloads 278

Authors: Kanika Gupta, Ashok Kumar

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Biofilms are dense, highly hydrated cell clusters that are irreversibly attached to a substratum, to an interface or to each other, and are embedded in a self-produced gelatinous matrix composed of extracellular polymeric substances. Research in biofilm field has become very significant, as biofilm has shown high mechanical resilience and resistance to antibiotic treatment and constituted as a significant problem in both healthcare and other industry related to microorganisms. The massive information both stated and hidden in the biofilm literature are growing exponentially therefore it is not possible for researchers and practitioners to automatically extract and relate information from different written resources. So, the current work proposes and discusses the use of text mining techniques for the extraction of information from biofilm literature corpora containing 34306 documents. It is very difficult and expensive to obtain annotated material for biomedical literature as the literature is unstructured i.e. free-text. Therefore, we considered unsupervised approach, where no annotated training is necessary and using this approach we developed a system that will classify the text on the basis of growth and development, drug effects, radiation effects, classification and physiology of biofilms. For this, a two-step structure was used where the first step is to extract keywords from the biofilm literature using a metathesaurus and standard natural language processing tools like Rapid Miner_v5.3 and the second step is to discover relations between the genes extracted from the whole set of biofilm literature using pubmed.mineR_v1.0.11. We used unsupervised approach, which is the machine learning task of inferring a function to describe hidden structure from 'unlabeled' data, in the above-extracted datasets to develop classifiers using WinPython-64 bit_v3.5.4.0Qt5 and R studio_v0.99.467 packages which will automatically classify the text by using the mentioned sets. The developed classifiers were tested on a large data set of biofilm literature which showed that the unsupervised approach proposed is promising as well as suited for a semi-automatic labeling of the extracted relations. The entire information was stored in the relational database which was hosted locally on the server. The generated biofilm vocabulary and genes relations will be significant for researchers dealing with biofilm research, making their search easy and efficient as the keywords and genes could be directly mapped with the documents used for database development.

Keywords: biofilms literature, classifiers development, text mining, unsupervised learning approach, unstructured data, relational database

Procedia PDF Downloads 147

Authors: Julia Cristina Bonaldo, Christophe L. Martin, Severine Romero Baivier, Stephane Mazerat

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Alumina refractories are commonly used in steel and foundry industries. These refractories are prepared through a powder metallurgy route. They are a mixture of hard alumina particles and graphite platelets embedded into a soft carbonic matrix (binder). The powder can be cold pressed isostatically or uniaxially, depending on the application. The compact is then fired to obtain the final product. The quality of the product is governed by the microstructure of the composite and by the process parameters. The compaction behavior and the mechanical properties of the fired product depend greatly on the amount of each phase, on their morphology and on the initial microstructure. In order to better understand the link between these parameters and the macroscopic behavior, we use the Discrete Element Method (DEM) to simulate the compaction process and the fracture behavior of the fired composite. These simulations are coupled with well-designed experiments. Four mixes with various amounts of Al₂O₃ and binder were tested both experimentally and numerically. In DEM, each particle is modelled and the interactions between particles are taken into account through appropriate contact or bonding laws. Here, we model a bimodal mixture of large Al₂O₃ and small Al₂O₃ covered with a soft binder. This composite is itself mixed with graphite platelets. X-ray tomography images are used to analyze the morphologies of the different components. Large Al₂O₃ particles and graphite platelets are modelled in DEM as sets of particles bonded together. The binder is modelled as a soft shell that covers both large and small Al₂O₃ particles. When two particles with binder indent each other, they first interact through this soft shell. Once a critical indentation is reached (towards the end of compaction), hard Al₂O₃ - Al₂O₃ contacts appear. In accordance with experimental data, DEM simulations show that the amount of Al₂O₃ and the amount of binder play a major role for the compaction behavior. The graphite platelets bend and break during the compaction, also contributing to the macroscopic stress. Firing step is modeled in DEM by ascribing bonds to particles which contact each other after compaction. The fracture behavior of the compacted mixture is also simulated and compared with experimental data. Both diametrical tests (Brazilian tests) and triaxial tests are carried out. Again, the link between the amount of Al₂O₃ particles and the fracture behavior is investigated. The methodology described here can be generalized to other particulate materials that are used in the ceramic industry.

Keywords: cold compaction, composites, discrete element method, refractory materials, x-ray tomography

Procedia PDF Downloads 123

Authors: Salwa Mohamed Salah Eldin, Howida Kamal Ibrahim

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Introduction: Major depressive disorder affects high proportion of the world’s population presenting cost load in health care. Extended release venlafaxine is more convenient and could reduce discontinuation syndrome. The once daily dosing also reduces the potential for adverse events such as nausea due to reduced Cmax. Venlafaxine is an effective first-line agent in the treatment of depression. A once daily formulation was designed to enhance patient compliance. Complexing with a resin was suggested to improve loading of the water soluble drug. The formulated systems were thoroughly evaluated in vitro to prove superiority to previous trials and were compared to the commercial extended release product in experimental animals. Materials and Methods: Venlafaxine-resinates were prepared using Dowex®50WX4-400 and Dowex®50WX8-100 at drug to resin weight ratio of 1: 1. The prepared resinates were evaluated for their drug content, particle shape and surface properties and in vitro release profile in gradient pH. The release kinetics and mechanism were evaluated. Venlafaxine-Dowex® resinates were encapsulated using O/W solvent evaporation technique. Poly-ε-caprolactone, Poly(D, L-lactide-co-glycolide) ester, Poly(D, L-lactide) ester and Eudragit®RS100 were used as coating polymers alone and in combination. Drug-resinate microcapsules were evaluated for morphology, entrapment efficiency and in-vitro release profile. The selected formula was tested in rabbits using a randomized, single-dose, 2-way crossover study against Effexor-XR tablets under fasting condition. Results and Discussion: The equilibrium time was 30 min for Dowex®50WX4-400 and 90 min for Dowex®50WX8-100. The percentage drug loaded was 93.96 and 83.56% for both resins, respectively. Both drug-Dowex® resintes were efficient in sustaining venlafaxine release in comparison to the free drug (up to 8h.). Dowex®50WX4-400 based venlafaxine-resinate was selected for further encapsulation to optimize the release profile for once daily dosing and to lower the burst effect. The selected formula (coated with a mixture of Eudragit RS and PLGA in a ratio of 50/50) was chosen by applying a group of mathematical equations according to targeted values. It recorded the minimum burst effect, the maximum MDT (Mean dissolution time) and a Q24h (percentage drug released after 24 hours) between 95 and 100%. The 90% confidence intervals for the test/reference mean ratio of the log-transformed data of AUC0–24 and AUC0−∞ are within (0.8–1.25), which satisfies the bioequivalence criteria. Conclusion: The optimized formula could be a promising extended release form of the water soluble, short half lived venlafaxine. Being a multiple unit formulation, it lowers the probability of dose dumping and reduces the inter-subject variability in absorption.

Keywords: biodegradable polymers, cation-exchange resin, microencapsulation, venlafaxine hcl

Procedia PDF Downloads 381

Authors: Priya Kulkarni, Soumya Koppikar, Narendrakumar Wagh, Dhanshri Ingle, Onkar Lande, Abhay Harsulkar

Abstract:

Cartilage is an extracellular matrix composed of aggrecan, which imparts it with a great tensile strength, stiffness and resilience. Disruption in cartilage metabolism leading to progressive degeneration is a characteristic feature of Osteoarthritis (OA). The process involves enzymatic depolymerisation of cartilage specific proteoglycan, releasing free glycosaminoglycan (GAG). This released GAG in synovial fluid (SF) of knee joint serves as a direct measure of cartilage loss, however, limited due to its invasive nature. Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index (WOMAC) is widely used for assessing pain, stiffness and physical-functions in OA patients. The scale is comprised of three subscales namely, pain, stiffness and physical-function, intends to measure patient’s perspective of disease severity as well as efficacy of prescribed treatment. Twenty SF samples obtained from OA patients were analysed for their GAG values in SF using DMMB based assay. LK 1.0 vernacular version was used to attain WOMAC scale. The results were evaluated using SAS University software (Edition 1.0) for statistical significance. All OA patients revealed higher GAG values compared to the control value of 78.4±30.1µg/ml (obtained from our non-OA patients). Average WOMAC calculated was 51.3 while pain, stiffness and function estimated were 9.7, 3.9 and 37.7, respectively. Interestingly, a strong statistical correlation was established between WOMAC function subscale and GAG (p = 0.0102). This subscale is based on day-to-day activities like stair-use, bending, walking, getting in/out of car, rising from bed. However, pain and stiffness subscale did not show correlation with any of the studied markers and endorsed the atypical inflammation in OA pathology. On one side, where knee pain showed poor correlation with GAG, it is often noted that radiography is insensitive to cartilage degenerative changes; thus OA remains undiagnosed for long. Moreover, active cartilage degradation phase remains elusive to both, patient and clinician. Through analysis of large number of OA patients we have established a close association of Kellgren-Lawrence grades and increased cartilage loss. A direct attempt to correlate WOMAC and radiographic progression of OA with various biomarkers has not been attempted so far. We found a good correlation in GAG levels in SF and the function subscale.

Keywords: cartilage, Glycosaminoglycan, synovial fluid, western ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index

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Authors: Tesfaldet Mekonnen Estifanos, Chen Hui, Afewerki Weldezgi

Abstract:

Background: Youth in general and young females in particular, remain at the center of the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Sexual risk-taking among young unmarried women is relatively high and are the most vulnerable and highly exposed to HIV/AIDS. Improvements in the status of HIV/AIDS knowledge and acceptance attitude towards people living with HIV (PLWHIV) plays a great role in averting the incidence of HIV/AIDS. Thus, the aim of the study was to explore the level and correlates of HIV/AIDS knowledge and accepting attitude toward PLWHIV. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted using data from the Uganda Demographic Health Survey 2016 (UDHS-2016). National level representative household surveys using a multistage cluster probability sampling method, face to face interviews with standard questionnaires were performed. Unmarried women aged 15-24 years with a sample size of 2019 were selected from the total sample of 8674 women aged 15-49 years and were analyzed using SPSS version 23. Independent variables such as age, religion, educational level, residence, and wealth index were included. Two binary outcome variables (comprehensive HIV/AIDS knowledge and acceptance attitude toward PLWHIV) were utilized. We used the chi-square test as well as multivariate regression analysis to explore correlations of explanatory variables with the outcome variables. The results were reported by odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI), taking a p-value less than 0.05 as significant. Results: Almost all (99.3%) of the unmarried women aged 15-24 years were aware of HIV/AIDS, but only 51.2% had adequate comprehensive knowledge on HIV/AIDS. Only 69.4% knew both methods: using a condom every time had sex, and having only one faithful uninfected partner can prevent HIV/AIDS transmission. About 66.6% of the unmarried women reject at least two common local misconceptions about HIV/AIDS. Moreover, an alarmingly few (20.3%) of the respondents had a positive acceptance attitude to PLWHIV. On multivariate analysis, age (20-24 years), living in urban, being educated and wealthier, were predictors of having adequate comprehensive HIV/AIDS knowledge. On the other hand, research participants with adequate comprehensive knowledge about HIV/AIDS were highly likely (OR, 1.94 95% CI, 1.52-2.46) to have a positive acceptance attitude to PLWHIV than those with inadequate knowledge. Respondents with no education, Muslim, and Pentecostal religion were emerged less likely to have a positive acceptance attitude to PLWHIV. Conclusion: This study found out the highly accepted level of awareness, but the knowledge and positive acceptance attitude are not encouraging. Thus, expanding access to comprehensive sexuality and strengthening educational campaigns on HIV/AIDS in communities, health facilities, and schools is needed with a greater focus on disadvantaged women having low educational level, poor socioeconomic status, and those residing in rural areas. Sexual risk behaviors among the most affected people - young women have also a role in the spread of HIV/AIDS. Hence, further research assessing the significant contributing factors for sexual risk-taking might have a positive impact on the fight against HIV/AIDS.

Keywords: acceptance attitude, HIV/AIDS, knowledge, unmarried women

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Authors: Satam Alotibi, Haya A. Al-Sunaidi, Almaymunah M. AlRoibah, Zahraa H. Al-Omaran, Mohammed Alyami, Fatehia S. Alhakami, Abdellah Kaiba, Mazen Alshaaer, Talal F. Qahtan

Abstract:

This research study presents a novel approach to harnessing the potential of natural geopolymer in conjunction with TiO₂ nanoparticles (TiO₂ NPs) for the development of highly efficient photocatalytic materials for water decontamination. The study begins with the formulation of a geopolymer paste derived from natural sources, which is subsequently applied as a coating on glass substrates and allowed to air-dry at room temperature. The result is a series of geopolymer-coated glass films, serving as the foundation for further experimentation. To enhance the photocatalytic capabilities of these films, a critical step involves immersing them in a suspension of TiO₂ nanoparticles (TiO₂ NPs) in water for varying durations. This immersion process yields geopolymer-loaded TiO₂ NPs films with varying concentrations, setting the stage for comprehensive characterization and analysis. A range of advanced analytical techniques, including UV-Vis spectroscopy, Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), Raman spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), and atomic force microscopy (AFM), were meticulously employed to assess the structural, morphological, and chemical properties of the geopolymer-based TiO₂ films. These analyses provided invaluable insights into the materials' composition and surface characteristics. The culmination of this research effort sees the geopolymer-based TiO₂ films being repurposed as immobilized photocatalytic reactors for water decontamination under natural sunlight irradiation. Remarkably, the results revealed exceptional photocatalytic performance that exceeded the capabilities of conventional TiO₂-based photocatalysts. This breakthrough underscores the significant potential of natural geopolymer as a versatile and highly effective matrix for enhancing the photocatalytic efficiency of TiO₂ nanoparticles in water treatment applications. In summary, this study represents a significant advancement in the quest for sustainable and efficient photocatalytic materials for environmental remediation. By harnessing the synergistic effects of natural geopolymer and TiO₂ nanoparticles, these geopolymer-based films exhibit outstanding promise in addressing water decontamination challenges and contribute to the development of eco-friendly solutions for a cleaner and healthier environment.

Keywords: geopolymer, TiO2 nanoparticles, photocatalytic materials, water decontamination, sustainable remediation

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