Search results for: hydrodynamic modeling

Authors: Vallence Ngabo M., Leonard Atuhaire, Peter Clever Rutayisire

Abstract:

The main aim of this study was to establish the differences in both the determinants of stunting and the causal mechanism through which the identified determinants influence stunting amongst male and female under-fives in Uganda. Literature shows that male children below the age of five years are at a higher risk of being stunted than their female counterparts. Specifically, studies in Uganda indicate that being a male child is positively associated with stunting, while being a female is negatively associated with stunting. Data for 904 males and 829 females under-fives was extracted form UDHS-2016 survey dataset. Key variables for this study were identified and used in generating relevant models and paths. Structural equation modeling techniques were used in their generalized form (GSEM). The generalized nature necessitated specifying both the family and link functions for each response variable in the system of the model. The sex of the child (b4) was used as a grouping factor and the height for age (HAZ) scores were used to construct the status for stunting of under-fives. The estimated models and path clearly indicated that the set of underlying factors that influence male and female under-fives respectively was different and the path through which they influence stunting was different. However, some of the determinants that influenced stunting amongst male under-fives also influenced stunting amongst the female under-fives. To reduce the stunting problem to the desirable state, it is important to consider the multifaceted and complex nature of the risk factors that influence stunting amongst the under-fives but, more importantly, consider the different sex-specific factors and their causal mechanism or paths through which they influence stunting.

Keywords: stunting, underfives, sex of the child, GSEM, causal mechanism

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: Pramod K. Prabhakar, Prem P. Srivastav

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Rohu (Labeo rohita) is an Indian major carp and highly relished freshwater food for its unique flavor, texture, and culinary properties. It is highly perishable and, spoilage occurs as a result of series of complicated biochemical changes brought about by enzymes which are the function of time and storage temperature also. The influence of storage temperature (5, 0, and -5 °C) on colour and texture of fish were studied during 14 days storage period in order to analyze kinetics of colour and textural changes. The rate of total colour change was most noticeable at the highest storage temperature (5°C), and these changes were well described by the first order reaction. Texture is an important variable of quality of the fish and is increasing concern to aquaculture industries. Textural parameters such as hardness, toughness and stiffness were evaluated on a texture analyzer for the different day of stored fish. The significant reduction (P ≤ 0.05) in hardness was observed after 2nd, 4th and 8th day for the fish stored at 5, 0, and -5 °C respectively. The textural changes of fish during storage followed a first order kinetic model and fitted well with this model (R2 > 0.95). However, the textural data with respect to time was also fitted to modified Maxwell model and found to be good fit with R2 value ranges from 0.96 to 0.98. Temperature dependence of colour and texture change was adequately modelled with the Arrhenius type equation. This fitted model may be used for the determination of shelf life of Rohu Rohu (Labeo rohita) Fish.

Keywords: first order kinetics, biochemical changes, Maxwell model, colour, texture, Arrhenius type equation

Procedia PDF Downloads 234

Authors: H. Shokouhmand, A. Ghanami

Abstract:

A heat pipe is simple heat transfer device which combines the conduction and phase change phenomena to control the heat transfer without any need for external power source. At a hot surface of the heat pipe, the liquid phase absorbs heat and changes to the vapor phase. The vapor phase flows to condenser region and with the loss of heat changes to the liquid phase. Due to gravitational force the liquid phase flows to the evaporator section. In HVAC systems, the working fluid is chosen based on the operating temperature. The heat pipe has significant capability to reduce the humidity in HVAC systems. Each HVAC system which uses the heater, humidifier, or dryer is a suitable nominate for the utilization of heat pipes. Generally, heat pipes have three main sections: condenser, adiabatic region, and evaporator. Performance investigation and optimization of heat pipes operation in order to increase their efficiency is crucial. In the present article, a parametric study is performed to improve the heat pipe performance. Therefore, the heat capacity of the heat pipe with respect to geometrical and confining parameters is investigated. For the better observation of heat pipe operation in HVAC systems, a CFD simulation in Eulerian-Eulerian multiphase approach is also performed. The results show that heat pipe heat transfer capacity is higher for water as working fluid with the operating temperature of 340 K. It is also showed that the vertical orientation of heat pipe enhances its heat transfer capacity.

Keywords: heat pipe, HVAC system, grooved heat pipe, heat pipe limits

Procedia PDF Downloads 436

Authors: Amy L. Irvine, Gabriel Reygondeau, Derek P. Tittensor

Abstract:

Marine protected areas (MPAs) within Canada’s exclusive economic zone help ensure the conservation and sustainability of marine ecosystems and the continued provision of ecosystem services to society (e.g., food, carbon sequestration). With ongoing and accelerating climate change, however, MPAs may become undermined in terms of their effectiveness at fulfilling these outcomes. Many populations of species, especially those at their thermal range limits, may shift to cooler waters or become extirpated due to climate change, resulting in new species compositions and ecological interactions within static MPA boundaries. While Canadian MPA management follows international guidelines for marine conservation, no consistent approach exists for adapting MPA networks to climate change and the resulting altered ecosystem conditions. To fill this gap, projected climate-driven shifts in species distributions on Canada’s east coast were analyzed to identify when native species emigrate and novel species immigrate within the network and how high mitigation and carbon emission scenarios influence these timelines. Indicators of the ecological changes caused by these species' shifts in the biological community were also developed. Overall, our research provides projections of climate change impacts and helps to guide adaptive management responses within the Canadian east coast MPA network.

Keywords: climate change, ecosystem modeling, marine protected areas, management

Procedia PDF Downloads 101

Authors: Ferdinando Montemari, Antonio Vitale, Nicola Genito, Luca Garbarino, Urbano Tancredi, Domenico Accardo, Michele Grassi, Giancarmine Fasano, Anna Elena Tirri

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The development of guidance, navigation and control algorithms and avionic procedures requires the disposability of suitable analysis and verification tools, such as simulation environments, which support the design process and allow detecting potential problems prior to the flight test, in order to make new technologies available at reduced cost, time and risk. This paper presents a simulation environment for avionic software development and qualification, especially aimed at equipment for general aviation aircrafts and unmanned aerial systems. The simulation environment includes models for short and medium-range radio-navigation aids, flight assistance systems, and ground control stations. All the software modules are able to simulate the modeled systems both in fast-time and real-time tests, and were implemented following component oriented modeling techniques and requirement based approach. The paper describes the specific models features, the architectures of the implemented software systems and its validation process. Performed validation tests highlighted the capability of the simulation environment to guarantee in real-time the required functionalities and performance of the simulated avionics systems, as well as to reproduce the interaction between these systems, thus permitting a realistic and reliable simulation of a complete mission scenario.

Keywords: ADS-B, avionics, NAVAIDs, real-time simulation, TCAS, UAS ground control station

Procedia PDF Downloads 228

Authors: Rihab Hamdi, Amel Hadri Hamida, Ouafae Bennis, Sakina Zerouali

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This paper features a performance analysis and robustness assessment of a digitally controlled DC-DC three-cell buck converter associated in parallel, operating in continuous conduction mode (CCM), facing feeding parameters variation and loads disturbance. The control strategy relies on the continuous-time with an averaged modeling technique for high-frequency switching converter. The methodology is to modulate the complete design procedure, in regard to the existence of an instantaneous current operating point for designing the digital closed-loop, to the same continuous-time domain. Moreover, the adopted approach is to include a digital voltage control (DVC) technique, taking an account for digital control delays and sampling effects, which aims at improving efficiency and dynamic response and preventing generally undesired phenomena. The results obtained under load change, input change, and reference change clearly demonstrates an excellent dynamic response of the proposed technique, also as provide stability in any operating conditions, the effectiveness is fast with a smooth tracking of the specified output voltage. Simulations studies in MATLAB/Simulink environment are performed to verify the concept.

Keywords: continuous conduction mode, digital control, parallel multi-cells converter, performance analysis, power electronics

Procedia PDF Downloads 151

Authors: Petr Gurný

Abstract:

One of the most important tasks in the risk management is the correct determination of probability of default (PD) of particular financial subjects. In this paper a possibility of determination of financial institution’s PD according to the credit-scoring models is discussed. The paper is divided into the two parts. The first part is devoted to the estimation of the three different models (based on the linear discriminant analysis, logit regression and probit regression) from the sample of almost three hundred US commercial banks. Afterwards these models are compared and verified on the control sample with the view to choose the best one. The second part of the paper is aimed at the application of the chosen model on the portfolio of three key Czech banks to estimate their present financial stability. However, it is not less important to be able to estimate the evolution of PD in the future. For this reason, the second task in this paper is to estimate the probability distribution of the future PD for the Czech banks. So, there are sampled randomly the values of particular indicators and estimated the PDs’ distribution, while it’s assumed that the indicators are distributed according to the multidimensional subordinated Lévy model (Variance Gamma model and Normal Inverse Gaussian model, particularly). Although the obtained results show that all banks are relatively healthy, there is still high chance that “a financial crisis” will occur, at least in terms of probability. This is indicated by estimation of the various quantiles in the estimated distributions. Finally, it should be noted that the applicability of the estimated model (with respect to the used data) is limited to the recessionary phase of the financial market.

Keywords: credit-scoring models, multidimensional subordinated Lévy model, probability of default

Procedia PDF Downloads 456

Authors: Lukumba Phiri, Simon Tembo, Kumbuso Joshua Nyoni

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In Zambia recent initiatives by various power operators like ZESCO, CEC, and consumers like the mines to upgrade power systems into smart grids target an even tighter integration with information technologies to enable the integration of renewable energy sources, local and bulk generation, and demand response. Thus, for the reliable operation of smart grids, its information infrastructure must be secure and reliable in the face of both failures and cyberattacks. Due to the nature of the systems, ICS/SCADA cybersecurity and governance face additional challenges compared to the corporate networks, and critical systems may be left exposed. There exist control frameworks internationally such as the NIST framework, however, there are generic and do not meet the domain-specific needs of the SCADA systems. Zambia is also lagging in cybersecurity awareness and adoption, therefore there is a concern about securing ICS controlling key infrastructure critical to the Zambian economy as there are few known facts about the true posture. In this paper, we introduce a stochastic Edged-based Anomaly Detection for SCADA systems (SEADS) framework for threat modeling and risk assessment. SEADS enables the calculation of steady-steady probabilities that are further applied to establish metrics like system availability, maintainability, and reliability.

Keywords: anomaly, availability, detection, edge, maintainability, reliability, stochastic

Procedia PDF Downloads 110

Authors: Seyedvahid Najafi, Viliam Makis

Abstract:

In recent years, maintenance optimization has attracted special attention due to the growth of industrial systems complexity. Maintenance costs are high for many systems, and preventive maintenance is effective when it increases operations' reliability and safety at a reduced cost. The novelty of this research is to consider general repair in the modeling of multi-unit series systems and solve the maintenance problem for such systems using the semi-Markov decision process (SMDP) framework. We propose an opportunistic maintenance policy for a series system composed of two main units. Unit 1, which is more expensive than unit 2, is subjected to condition monitoring, and its deterioration is modeled using a gamma process. Unit 1 hazard rate is estimated by the proportional hazards model (PHM), and two hazard rate control limits are considered as the thresholds of maintenance interventions for unit 1. Maintenance is performed on unit 2, considering an age control limit. The objective is to find the optimal control limits and minimize the long-run expected average cost per unit time. The proposed algorithm is applied to a numerical example to compare the effectiveness of the proposed policy (policy Ⅰ) with policy Ⅱ, which is similar to policy Ⅰ, but instead of general repair, replacement is performed. Results show that policy Ⅰ leads to lower average cost compared with policy Ⅱ. 

Keywords: condition-based maintenance, proportional hazards model, semi-Markov decision process, two-unit series systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 123

Authors: Elena M. Kopteva, Pavlina Jaluvkova, Zdenek Stuchlik

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In spite of the numerous attempts to close the discussion about the influence of cosmological expansion on local gravitationally bounded systems, this question arises in literature again and again and remains still far from its final resolution. Here one of the main problems is the problem of obtaining a physically adequate model of strongly gravitating object immersed in non-static cosmological background. Such objects are usually called ‘cosmological’ black holes and are of great interest in wide set of cosmological and astrophysical areas. In this work the set of new exact solutions of the Einstein equations is derived for the flat space that generalizes the known Lemaitre-Tolman-Bondi solution for the case of nonzero pressure. The solutions obtained are pretending to describe the black hole immersed in nonstatic cosmological background and give a possibility to investigate the hot problems concerning the effects of the cosmological expansion in gravitationally bounded systems, the structure formation in the early universe, black hole thermodynamics and other related problems. It is shown that each of the solutions obtained contains either the Reissner-Nordstrom or the Schwarzschild black hole in the central region of the space. It is demonstrated that the approach of the mass function use in solving of the Einstein equations allows clear physical interpretation of the resulting solutions, that is of much benefit to any their concrete application.

Keywords: exact solutions of the Einstein equations, cosmological black holes, generalized Lemaitre-Tolman-Bondi solutions, nonzero pressure

Procedia PDF Downloads 423

Authors: Chaya B. M., C. Dhanush, Inti Sai Srikar, Akula Pavan Parvatalu, Chirag Gowda R

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Recently, there has been a lot of interest in µ-LED technology because of its exceptional qualities, including auto emission, high visibility, low consumption of power, rapid response and longevity. Light-emitting diodes (LED) using III-nitride, such as lighting sources, visible light communication (VLC) devices, and high-power devices, are finding increasing use as miniaturization technology advances. The use of micro-LED displays in place of traditional display technologies like liquid crystal displays (LCDs) and organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs) is one of the most prominent recent advances, which may even represent the next generation of displays. The development of fully integrated, multifunctional devices and the incorporation of extra capabilities into micro-LED displays, such as sensing, light detection, and solar cells, are the pillars of advanced technology. Due to the wide range of applications for micro-LED technology, the effectiveness and dependability of these devices in numerous harsh conditions are becoming increasingly important. Enough research has been conducted to overcome the under-effectiveness of micro-LED devices. In this paper, different Micro LED design structures are proposed in order to achieve optimized optical properties. In order to attain improved external quantum efficiency (EQE), devices' light extraction efficiency (LEE) has also been boosted.

Keywords: finite difference time domain, light out coupling efficiency, far field intensity, power density, quantum efficiency, flat panel displays

Procedia PDF Downloads 79

Authors: H. Shokouhmand, A. Ghanami

Abstract:

Heat pipe is simple heat transfer device which combines the conduction and phase change phenomena to control the heat transfer without any need for external power source. At hot surface of heat pipe, the liquid phase absorbs heat and changes to vapor phase. The vapor phase flows to condenser region and with the loss of heat changes to liquid phase. Due to gravitational force the liquid phase flows to evaporator section. In HVAC systems the working fluid is chosen based on the operating temperature. The heat pipe has significant capability to reduce the humidity in HVAC systems. Each HVAC system which uses heater, humidifier or dryer is a suitable nominate for the utilization of heat pipes. Generally heat pipes have three main sections: condenser, adiabatic region and evaporator.Performance investigation and optimization of heat pipes operation in order to increase their efficiency is crucial. In present article, a parametric study is performed to improve the heat pipe performance. Therefore, the heat capacity of heat pipe with respect to geometrical and confining parameters is investigated. For the better observation of heat pipe operation in HVAC systems, a CFD simulation in Eulerian- Eulerian multiphase approach is also performed. The results show that heat pipe heat transfer capacity is higher for water as working fluid with the operating temperature of 340 K. It is also showed that the vertical orientation of heat pipe enhances it’s heat transfer capacity used in the abstract.

Keywords: heat pipe, HVAC system, grooved heat pipe, CFD simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 426

Authors: H. Shokouhmand, A. Ghanami

Abstract:

Heat pipe is simple heat transfer device which combines the conduction and phase change phenomena to control the heat transfer without any need for external power source. At hot surface of heat pipe, the liquid phase absorbs heat and changes to vapor phase. The vapor phase flows to condenser region and with the loss of heat changes to liquid phase. Due to gravitational force the liquid phase flows to evaporator section.In HVAC systems the working fluid is chosen based on the operating temperature. The heat pipe has significant capability to reduce the humidity in HVAC systems. Each HVAC system which uses heater, humidifier or dryer is a suitable nominate for the utilization of heat pipes. Generally heat pipes have three main sections: condenser, adiabatic region and evaporator.Performance investigation and optimization of heat pipes operation in order to increase their efficiency is crucial. In present article, a parametric study is performed to improve the heat pipe performance. Therefore, the heat capacity of heat pipe with respect to geometrical and confining parameters is investigated. For the better observation of heat pipe operation in HVAC systems, a CFD simulation in Eulerian- Eulerian multiphase approach is also performed. The results show that heat pipe heat transfer capacity is higher for water as working fluid with the operating temperature of 340 K. It is also showed that the vertical orientation of heat pipe enhances it’s heat transfer capacity used in the abstract.

Keywords: heat pipe, HVAC system, grooved heat pipe, heat pipe limits

Procedia PDF Downloads 364

Authors: Isaac Owusu Asante, Yushi Jiang, Hailin Tao

Abstract:

Live streaming marketing, the new electronic commerce element, became an optional marketing channel following the COVID-19 pandemic. Many sellers have leveraged the features presented by live streaming to increase sales. Studies on live streaming have focused on gaming and consumers’ loyalty to brands through live streaming, using interview questionnaires. This study, however, was conducted to measure real-time observable interactions between consumers and sellers. Based on the affordance theory, this study conceptualized constructs representing the interactive features and examined how they drive consumers’ purchase willingness during live streaming sessions using 1238 datasets from Amazon Live, following the manual observation of transaction records. Using structural equation modeling, the ordinary least square regression suggests that live viewers, new followers, live chats, and likes positively affect purchase willingness. The Sobel and Monte Carlo tests show that new followers, live chats, and likes significantly mediate the relationship between live viewers and purchase willingness. The study introduces a new way of measuring interactions in live streaming commerce and proposes a way to manually gather data on consumer behaviors in live streaming platforms when the application programming interface (API) of such platforms does not support data mining algorithms.

Keywords: livestreaming marketing, live chats, live viewers, likes, new followers, purchase willingness

Procedia PDF Downloads 81

Authors: Sarwat Jahan, Asker Rajin Rahman

Abstract:

Management of offtake of any fluvial river is very sensitive in terms of long-term sustainability where the variation of water flow and sediment transport range are wide enough throughout a hydrological year. The Gorai River is a major distributary of the Ganges River in Bangladesh and is termed as a primary source of fresh water for the South-West part of the country. Every year, significant siltation of the Gorai offtake disconnects it from the Ganges during the dry season. As a result, the socio-economic and environmental condition of the downstream areas has been deteriorating for a few decades. To improve the overall situation of the Gorai offtake and its dependent areas, a study has been conducted by the Institute of Water Modelling, Bangladesh, in 2022. Using the mathematical morphological modeling tool MIKE 21C of DHI Water & Environment, Denmark, simulated results revealed the need for dredging/river training structures for offtake management at the Gorai offtake to ensure significant dry season flow towards the downstream. The dry season flow is found to increase significantly with the proposed river interventions, which also improves the environmental conditions in terms of salinity of the South-West zone of the country. This paper summarizes the primary findings of the analyzed results of the developed mathematical model for improving the existing condition of the Gorai River.

Keywords: Gorai river, mathematical modelling, offtake, siltation, salinity

Procedia PDF Downloads 98

Authors: Isaac Mugume

Abstract:

Since the beginning of the 21st century, climate change has been an issue due to the reported rise in global temperature and changes in the frequency as well as severity of extreme weather and climatic events. The changing climate has been attributed to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases, including environmental changes such as ecosystems and land-uses. Climatic projections have been carried out under the auspices of the intergovernmental panel on climate change where a couple of models have been run to inform us about the likelihood of future climates. Since one of the major forcings informing the changing climate is emission of greenhouse gases, different scenarios have been proposed and future climates for different periods presented. The global climate models project different areas to experience different impacts. While regional modeling is being carried out for high impact studies, bias correction is less documented. Yet, the regional climate models suffer bias which introduces uncertainty. This is addressed in this study by bias correcting the regional models. This study uses the Weather Research and Forecasting model under different representative concentration pathways and correcting the products of these models using observed climatic data. This study notes that bias correction (e.g., the running-mean bias correction; the best easy systematic estimator method; the simple linear regression method, nearest neighborhood, weighted mean) improves the climatic projection skill and therefore reduce the uncertainty inherent in the climatic projections.

Keywords: bias correction, climatic projections, numerical models, representative concentration pathways

Procedia PDF Downloads 120

Authors: Anton A. Bykov, Irina O. Glot, Igor N. Shardakov, Alexey P. Shestakov

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This paper presents the results of experimental and theoretical investigations of the mechanisms of crack formation in reinforced concrete beams subjected to quasi-static bending. The boundary-value problem has been formulated in the framework of brittle fracture mechanics and has been solved by using the finite-element method. Numerical simulation of the vibrations of an uncracked beam and a beam with cracks of different size serves to determine the pattern of changes in the spectrum of eigenfrequencies observed during crack evolution. Experiments were performed on the sequential quasistatic four-point bending of the beam leading to the formation of cracks in concrete. At each loading stage, the beam was subjected to an impulse load to induce vibrations. Two stages of cracking were detected. At the first stage the conservative process of deformation is realized. The second stage is an active cracking, which is marked by a sharp change in eingenfrequencies. The boundary of a transition from one stage to another is well registered. The vibration behavior was examined for the beams strengthened by carbon-fiber sheet before loading and at the intermediate stage of loading after the grouting of initial cracks. The obtained results show that the vibrodiagnostic approach is an effective tool for monitoring of cracking and for assessing the quality of measures aimed at strengthening concrete structures.

Keywords: crack formation, experiment, mathematical modeling, reinforced concrete, vibrodiagnostics

Procedia PDF Downloads 307

Authors: Sushish Baral, Pratibha Joshi, Yaman Maharjan

Abstract:

Glaucoma is a chronic eye condition that causes vision loss that is irreversible. Early detection and treatment are critical to prevent vision loss because it can be asymptomatic. For the identification of glaucoma, multiple deep learning algorithms are used. Transformer-based architectures, which use the self-attention mechanism to encode long-range dependencies and acquire extremely expressive representations, have recently become popular. Convolutional architectures, on the other hand, lack knowledge of long-range dependencies in the image due to their intrinsic inductive biases. The aforementioned statements inspire this thesis to look at transformer-based solutions and investigate the viability of adopting transformer-based network designs for glaucoma detection. Using retinal fundus images of the optic nerve head to develop a viable algorithm to assess the severity of glaucoma necessitates a large number of well-curated images. Initially, data is generated by augmenting ocular pictures. After that, the ocular images are pre-processed to make them ready for further processing. The system is trained using pre-processed images, and it classifies the input images as normal or glaucoma based on the features retrieved during training. The Vision Transformer (ViT) architecture is well suited to this situation, as it allows the self-attention mechanism to utilise structural modeling. Extensive experiments are run on the common dataset, and the results are thoroughly validated and visualized.

Keywords: glaucoma, vision transformer, convolutional architectures, retinal fundus images, self-attention, deep learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 191

Authors: Nalinee Sophatsathit

Abstract:

The objectives of memorabilia of Suan Sunandha are to develop a general knowledge presentation about the historical royal garden through interactive graphic simulation technique and to employ high-functionality context in enhancing interactive user navigation. The approach infers non-intrusive display of relevant history in response to situational context. User’s navigation runs through the virtual reality campus, consisting of new and restored buildings. A flash back presentation of information pertaining to the history in the form of photos, paintings, and textual descriptions are displayed along each passing-by building. To keep the presentation lively, graphical simulation is created in a serendipity game play so that the user can both learn and enjoy the educational tour. The benefits of this human-computer interaction development are two folds. First, lively presentation technique and situational context modeling are developed that entail a usable paradigm of knowledge and information presentation combinations. Second, cost effective training and promotion for both internal personnel and public visitors to learn and keep informed of this historical royal garden can be furnished without the need for a dedicated public relations service. Future improvement on graphic simulation and ability based display can extend this work to be more realistic, user-friendly, and informative for all.

Keywords: interactive user navigation, high-functionality context, situational context, human-computer interaction

Procedia PDF Downloads 358

Authors: Akinbo Razak Yinka, Adesanya Kehinde Kazeem, Oladokun Oluwagbenga Peter

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Time series data are sequences of observations collected over a period of time. Such data can be used to predict health outcomes, such as disease progression, mortality, hospitalization, etc. The Statistical approach is based on mathematical models that capture the patterns and trends of the data, such as autocorrelation, seasonality, and noise, while Neural methods are based on artificial neural networks, which are computational models that mimic the structure and function of biological neurons. This paper compared both parametric and non-parametric time series models of patients treated for malaria in Maternal and Child Health Centres in Lagos State, Nigeria. The forecast methods considered linear regression, Integrated Moving Average, ARIMA and SARIMA Modeling for the parametric approach, while Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Network were used for the non-parametric model. The performance of each method is evaluated using the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), R-squared (R2) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as criteria to determine the accuracy of each model. The study revealed that the best performance in terms of error was found in MLP, followed by the LSTM and ARIMA models. In addition, the Bootstrap Aggregating technique was used to make robust forecasts when there are uncertainties in the data.

Keywords: ARIMA, bootstrap aggregation, MLP, LSTM, SARIMA, time-series analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 75

Authors: Jalila Jbilou, Salaheddine El Adlouni, Pierre Gosselin

Abstract:

Background: West Nile virus is increasingly an important public health issue in North America. In Canada, WVN was officially reported in Toronto and Montréal for the first time in 2001. During the last decade, several WNV events have been reported in several Canadian provinces. The main objective of the present study is to update the frequency of the climate conditions favorable to WNV outbreaks in Canada. Method: Statistical frequency analysis has been used to estimate the return period for climate conditions associated with WNV outbreaks for the 1961–2050 period. The best fit is selected through the Akaike Information Criterion, and the parameters are estimated using the maximum likelihood approach. Results: Results show that the climate conditions related to the 2002 event, for Montreal and Toronto, are becoming more frequent. For Saskatoon, the highest DD20 events recorded for the last few decades were observed in 2003 and 2007. The estimated return periods are 30 years and 70 years, respectively. Conclusion: The emergence of WNV was related to extremely high DD values in the summer. However, some exceptions may be related to several factors such as virus persistence, vector migration, and also improved diagnosis and reporting levels. It is clear that such climate conditions have become much more common in the last decade and will likely continue to do so over future decades.

Keywords: West Nile virus, climate, North America, statistical frequency analysis, risk estimation, public health, modeling, scenario, temperature, precipitation

Procedia PDF Downloads 346

Authors: Maxime A. J. Kuitche, Ruxandra M. Botez, Arthur Guillemin

Abstract:

As the Unmanned Aerial Systems have found diverse utilities in both military and civil aviation, the necessity to obtain an accurate aerodynamic model has shown an enormous growth of interest. Recent modeling techniques are procedures using optimization algorithms and statistics that require many flight tests and are therefore extremely demanding in terms of costs. This paper presents a procedure to estimate the aerodynamic behavior of an unmanned aerial system from a numerical approach using computational fluid dynamic analysis. The study was performed using an unstructured mesh obtained from a grid convergence analysis at a Mach number of 0.14, and at an angle of attack of 0°. The flow around the aircraft was described using a standard k-ω turbulence model. Thus, the Reynold Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations were solved using ANSYS FLUENT software. The method was applied on the UAS-S45 designed and manufactured by Hydra Technologies in Mexico. The lift, the drag, and the pitching moment coefficients were obtained at different angles of attack for several flight conditions defined in terms of altitudes and Mach numbers. The results obtained from the Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis were compared with the results obtained by using the DATCOM semi-empirical procedure. This comparison has indicated that our approach is highly accurate and that the aerodynamic model obtained could be useful to estimate the flight dynamics of the UAS-S45.

Keywords: aerodynamic modelling, CFD Analysis, ANSYS FLUENT, UAS-S45

Procedia PDF Downloads 375

Authors: Mahdi Sadeghian, Somaye Sadeghian, Reza Dinarvand

Abstract:

This paper is going to discuss two issues encountered in using PLAXIS. Both issues were monitored during application of PLAXIS to estimate the excavation-induced displacement. Column Soil Mixing (CSM) was applied to stabilise the excavation. It was understood that the estimated excavation induced deformation at the top of the CSM blocks highly depends on the material type defining pavement material adjacent to the CSM blocks. Cohesive material for pavement will result in the unrealistic connection between pavement and CSM even by defining an interface element. To find the most realistic approach, the interface defined in three different manners (1) no interface elements were applied (2) a non-cohesive soil layer was defined between pavement and CSM block to represent the friction between these materials (3) built-in interface elements in PLAXIS was used to define the boundary between the pavement and the CSM block. The result showed that the option 2 would result in more realistic results. The second issue was in the modelling of the contact line between the CSM block and an inclined layer underneath. The analysis result showed that the excavation-induced deformation highly depends on how the PLAXIS user defines the contact area. It was understood that if the contact area had defined as a point in which CSM block had intersected the layer underneath the estimated lateral displacement of CSM block would be unrealistically lower than the model in which the contact area was defined as a line.

Keywords: PLAXIS, FEM, CSM, Excavation-Induced Deformation

Procedia PDF Downloads 162

Authors: A. Ghanami, M.Heydari

Abstract:

Heat pipe is simple heat transfer device which combines the conduction and phase change phenomena to control the heat transfer without any need for external power source. At hot surface of heat pipe, the liquid phase absorbs heat and changes to vapor phase. The vapor phase flows to condenser region and with the loss of heat changes to liquid phase. Due to gravitational force the liquid phase flows to evaporator section. In HVAC systems the working fluid is chosen based on the operating temperature. The heat pipe has significant capability to reduce the humidity in HVAC systems. Each HVAC system which uses heater, humidifier or dryer is a suitable nominate for the utilization of heat pipes. Generally heat pipes have three main sections: condenser, adiabatic region and evaporator. Performance investigation and optimization of heat pipes operation in order to increase their efficiency is crucial. In present article, a parametric study is performed to improve the heat pipe performance. Therefore, the heat capacity of heat pipe with respect to geometrical and confining parameters is investigated. For the better observation of heat pipe operation in HVAC systems, a CFD simulation in Eulerian- Eulerian multiphase approach is also performed. The results show that heat pipe heat transfer capacity is higher for water as working fluid with the operating temperature of 340 K. It is also showed that the vertical orientation of heat pipe enhances it’s heat transfer capacity.used in the abstract.

Keywords: Heat pipe, HVAC system, Grooved Heat pipe, Heat pipe limits.

Procedia PDF Downloads 482

Authors: Mehdi Khakzand, Flora Fakourian

Abstract:

It has been seen in recent years that architects are using virtual modeling to help them visualize their projects. Research has indicated that virtual media, particularly virtual reality, enhances architects' comprehension of design and spatial perception. Creating a communal experience for active learning is an essential component of the design process in architecture pedagogy. It has been particularly challenging to replicate design principles as a critical teaching function, and this is a complex issue that demands comprehension. Nonetheless, the usage of simulation should be studied and limited as appropriate. In conjunction with extensive technology, 3D geometric illustration can bridge the gap between the real and virtual worlds. This research intends to deliver a pedagogical experience in the architecture basics course to improve the architectural design process utilizing virtual reality tools. This tool seeks to tackle current challenges in current ways of architectural illustration by offering building geometry illustration, building information (data from the building information model), and simulation results. These tools were tested over three days in a design workshop with 12 architectural students. This article provided an architectural VR-based course and explored its application in boosting students' active experiences. According to the research, this technology can improve students' cognitive skills from challenging simulations by boosting visual understanding.

Keywords: active experience, architecture pedagogy, virtual reality, spatial perception

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Authors: Sebahat Seker

Abstract:

Since there is a parallel connection between drinking water quality and public health, studies on drinking and domestic water are of vital importance. Ardahan Province is one of the provinces located in the Northeast Anatolian Region, where animal husbandry and agriculture are carried out economically. City mains water uses underground spring water as a source and is chlorinated and given to the city center by gravity. However, mains water cannot be used outside the central district of the city, and the majority of the people meet their drinking and utility water needs from the wells they have opened individually. The water element, which is vital for all living things, is the most important substance that sustains life for humans. Under normal conditions, a healthy person consumes approximately 1.8-2 liters of water. The quality and use of potable water is one of the most important issues in terms of health. The quality parameters of drinking and utility water have been revealed by the scientific world. Scientific studies on drinking water quality in the world and its impact on public health are among the most popular topics. Although our country is surrounded by water on three sides, potable water resources are very few. In the Eastern Anatolia Region, it is difficult for the public to access drinking and utility water due to the difficult conditions both climatically and geographically. In this study, samples taken from drinking and utility water at certain intervals from the stations determined, and water quality parameters will be determined. The fact that such a study has not been carried out in the region before and the knowledge of the local people about water quality is very important in terms of its original and widespread effect.

Keywords: water quality, modelling, evaluation, northeastern anatolia

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Authors: Sahar Heidary, Ramin Ghasemi Shayan

Abstract:

The overall goal Monte Carlo N-atom radioactivity transference PC program (MCNP4C) was done for the regeneration of x-ray groups in diagnostic radiology and mammography. The electrons were transported till they slow down and stopover in the target. Both bremsstrahlung and characteristic x-ray creation were measured in this study. In this issue, the x-ray spectra forecast by several computational models recycled in the diagnostic radiology and mammography energy kind have been calculated by appraisal with dignified spectra and their outcome on the scheming of absorbed dose and effective dose (ED) told to the adult ORNL hermaphroditic phantom quantified. This comprises practical models (TASMIP and MASMIP), semi-practical models (X-rayb&m, X-raytbc, XCOMP, IPEM, Tucker et al., and Blough et al.), and Monte Carlo modeling (EGS4, ITS3.0, and MCNP4C). Images got consuming synchrotron radiation (SR) and both screen-film and the CR system were related with images of the similar trials attained with digital mammography equipment. In sight of the worthy feature of the effects gained, the CR system was used in two mammographic inspections with SR. For separately mammography unit, the capability acquiesced bilateral mediolateral oblique (MLO) and craniocaudal(CC) mammograms attained in a woman with fatty breasts and a woman with dense breasts. Referees planned the common groups and definite absences that managed to a choice to miscarry the part that formed the scientific imaginings.

Keywords: mammography, monte carlo, effective dose, radiology

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: Shin-Hyung Cho, Dong-Kyu Kim, Seung-Young Kho

Abstract:

Truck-involved crashes have higher crash severity than non-truck-involved crashes. There have been many studies about the frequency of crashes and the development of severity models, but those studies only analyzed the relationship between observed variables. To identify why more people are injured or killed when trucks are involved in the crash, we must examine to quantify the complex causal relationship between severity of the crash and risk factors by adopting the latent factors of crashes. The aim of this study was to develop a structural equation or model based on truck-involved and non-truck-involved crashes, including five latent variables, i.e. a crash factor, environmental factor, road factor, driver’s factor, and severity factor. To clarify the unique characteristics of truck-involved crashes compared to non-truck-involved crashes, a confirmatory analysis method was used. To develop the model, we extracted crash data from 10,083 crashes on Korean freeways from 2008 through 2014. The results showed that the most significant variable affecting the severity of a crash is the crash factor, which can be expressed by the location, cause, and type of the crash. For non-truck-involved crashes, the crash and environment factors increase severity of the crash; conversely, the road and driver factors tend to reduce severity of the crash. For truck-involved crashes, the driver factor has a significant effect on severity of the crash although its effect is slightly less than the crash factor. The multiple group analysis employed to analyze the differences between the heterogeneous groups of drivers.

Keywords: crash severity, structural structural equation modeling (SEM), truck-involved crashes, multiple group analysis, crash on freeway

Procedia PDF Downloads 383

Authors: Ali Jahanfar, Brajesh Dubey, Bahram Gharabaghi, Saber Bayat Movahed

Abstract:

Ever increasing population growth of major urban centers and environmental challenges in siting new landfills have resulted in a growing trend in design of mega-landfills some with extraordinary heights and dangerously steep slopes. Landfill failure mobility risk analysis is one of the most uncertain types of dynamic rheology models due to very large inherent variabilities in the heterogeneous solid waste material shear strength properties. The waste flow of three historic dumpsite and two landfill failures were back-analyzed using run-out modeling with DAN-W model. The travel distances of the waste flow during landfill failures were calculated approach by taking into account variability in material shear strength properties. The probability distribution function for shear strength properties of the waste material were grouped into four major classed based on waste material compaction (landfills versus dumpsites) and composition (high versus low quantity) of high shear strength waste materials such as wood, metal, plastic, paper and cardboard in the waste. This paper presents a probabilistic method for estimation of the spatial extent of waste avalanches, after a potential landfill failure, to create maps of vulnerability scores to inform property owners and residents of the level of the risk.

Keywords: landfill failure, waste flow, Voellmy rheology, friction coefficient, waste compaction and type

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Authors: Paul Buchana, Patrick E. Mc Sharry

Abstract:

In 2017 there will be about 38 wind farms in the North Sea belonging to 5 different countries. The North Sea is ideal for offshore wind power generation and is thus attractive to offshore wind energy developers and investors. With concerns about the potential for offshore wind turbines to sustain substantial damage as a result of extreme weather conditions, particularly windstorms, this poses a unique challenge to insurers and reinsurers as to adequately quantify the risk and offer appropriate insurance cover for these assets. The need to manage this risk also concerns regulators, who provide the oversight needed to ensure that if a windstorm or a series of storms occur in this area over a one-year time frame, the insurers of these assets in the EU remain solvent even after meeting consequent damage costs. In this paper, using available European windstorm data for the past 33 years and actual wind farm locations together with information pertaining to each of the wind farms (number of turbines, total capacity and financial value), we present a Monte Carlo simulation approach to assess the number of turbines that would be buckled in each of the wind farms using maximum wind speeds reaching each of them. These wind speeds are drawn from historical windstorm data. From the number of turbines buckled, associated financial loss and output capacity can be deduced. The results presented in this paper are targeted towards offshore wind energy developers, insurance and reinsurance companies and regulators.

Keywords: catastrophe modeling, North Sea wind farms, offshore wind power, risk analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 299