Search results for: risk communication

Authors: Ruchi Agarwal

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In today’s world, companies are operating in dynamic, uncertain and ambiguous business environments. Globally, more companies are failing due to Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors than ever. Corporate governance and risk management are intertwined in nature. For decades, corporate governance and risk management have been influenced by internal and external factors. Three schools of thought have influenced risk governance for decades: Agency theory, Contingency theory, and Institutional theory. Agency theory argues that agents have interests conflicting with principal interests and the information problem. Contingency theory suggests that risk management adoption is influenced by internal and external factors, while Institutional theory suggests that organizations legitimize risk management with regulators, competitors, and professional bodies. The conflicting objectives of theories have created problems for executives in organizations in the adoption of Risk Governance. So far, there are many studies that discussed risk culture and the role of actors in risk governance, but there are rare studies discussing the role of risk culture in the adoption of risk governance from a leadership style perspective. This study explores the adoption of risk governance in two contrasting industries, such as the Insurance and energy business, to understand whether risk governance is influenced by internal/external factors or whether risk culture is influenced by leaders. We draw empirical evidence by comparing the cases of an Indian insurance company and a renewable energy-based firm in India. We interviewed more than 20 senior executives of companies and collected annual reports, risk management policies, and more than 10 PPTs and other reports from 2017 to 2024. We visited the company for follow-up questions several times. The findings of my research revealed that both companies have used risk governance for strategic renewal of the company. Insurance companies use a transactional leadership style based on performance and reward for improving risk, while energy companies use rather symbolic management to make debt restructuring meaningful for stakeholders. Overall, both companies turned from loss-making to profitable ones in a few years. This comparative study highlights the role of different leadership styles in the adoption of risk governance. The study is also distinct as previous research rarely studied risk governance in two contrasting industries in reference to leadership styles.

Keywords: leadership style, corporate governance, risk management, risk culture, strategic renewal

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Authors: Samuel Capintero, Ole H. Petersen

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This paper examines the utilization of public-private partnerships for the building and operation of wastewater treatment plants. Our research focuses on risk allocation in this kind of projects. Our analysis builds on more than hundred wastewater treatment plants built and operated through PPP projects in Aragon (Spain). The paper illustrates the consequences of an inadequate management of construction risk and an unsuitable transfer of demand risk in wastewater treatment plants. It also shows that the involvement of many public bodies at local, regional and national level further increases the complexity of this kind of projects and make time delays more likely.

Keywords: wastewater, treatment plants, PPP, construction

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Authors: Jayaletchumi T. Sambantha Moorthy, Suhaimi bin Ibrahim, Mohd Naz’ri Mahrin

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Most quality models have defined usability as a significant factor that leads to improving product acceptability, increasing user satisfaction, improving product reliability, and also financially benefiting companies. Usability is also the best factor that acts as a balance for both the technical and human aspects of a software product, which is an important aspect in defining quality during software development process. A usability risk can be defined as a potential usability risk factor that a chosen action or activity may lead to a possible loss or an undesirable outcome. This could impact the usability of a software product thereby contributing to negative user experiences and causing a possible software product failure. Hence, it is important to mitigate and reduce usability risks in the software development process itself. By managing possible involved usability risks in software development process, failure of software product could be reduced. Therefore, this research uses the Delphi method to identify mitigation plans to reduce potential usability risks. The Delphi method is conducted with seven experts from the field of risk management and software development.

Keywords: usability, usability risk, risk management, risk mitigation, delphi study

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Authors: Petr Šimek

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This work deals with the problem of synchronization of bus frames during transmission using USB (Universal Serial Bus). The principles for synchronization between USB and the non-deterministic CAN (Controller Area Network) bus will be described here. Furthermore, the work deals with ensuring the time sequence of communication frames when receiving from multiple communication bus channels. The structure of a general object for storing frames from different types of communication buses, such as CAN and LIN (Local Interconnect Network), will be described here. Finally, an evaluation of the communication throughput of bus frames for USB High speed will be performed. The creation of this architecture was based on the analysis of the communication of control units with a large number of communication buses. For the design of the architecture, a test HW with a USB-HS interface was used, which received previously known messages, which were compared with the received result. The result of this investigation is the block architecture of the control program for test HW ensuring correct data transmission via the USB bus.

Keywords: analysis, CAN, interface, LIN, synchronization, USB

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Authors: Iqbal Pramukti, Mamat Lukman, Hasniatisari Harun, Kusman Ibrahim

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Introduction: People living with HIV had a higher risk of osteoporotic fracture than the general population. The purpose of this study was to predict the 10-year risk of fracture among people living with HIV (PLWH) using FRAX™ and to identify characteristics related to the fracture risk. Methodology: This study consisted of 75 subjects. The ten-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures (MOF) and hip fractures was assessed using the FRAX™ algorithm. A cross-tabulation was used to identify the participant’s characteristics related to fracture risk. Results: The overall mean 10-year probability of fracture was 2.4% (1.7) for MOF and 0.4% (0.3) for hip fractures. For MOF score, participants with parents’ hip fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid use showed a higher MOF score than those who were not (3.1 vs. 2.5; 4.6 vs 2.5; and 3.4 vs 2.5, respectively). For HF score, participants with parents’ hip fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid use also showed a higher HF score than those who were not (0.5 vs. 0.3; 0.8 vs. 0.3; and 0.5 vs. 0.3, respectively). Conclusions: The 10-year risk of fracture was higher among PLWH with several factors, including the parent’s hip. Fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid used. Further analysis on determining factors using multivariate regression analysis with a larger sample size is required to confirm the factors associated with the high fracture risk.

Keywords: HIV, PLWH, osteoporotic fractures, hip fractures, 10-year risk of fracture, FRAX

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Authors: Afrah Bader Al Edan

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In the context of increasing global water scarcity, the reuse of produced water from oil production has emerged as a crucial strategy for sustainable water management. There is a feasibility of produced water reuse by using various treatments in different regions worldwide to show the potential applications of treated produced water, such as in agriculture and industrial processes. risk assessment framework can be employed to evaluate environmental, health, and operational risks associated with reuse. The findings underscore the importance of integrating advanced treatment technologies and stringent risk management practices to maximize the safe and effective reuse of produced water, providing reliable insights for the oil and gas industry.

Keywords: produced water, risk assessment, oil and gas, environmental impact

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Authors: Sharon K. O'Kelley

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At the heart of mathematics education is the concept of communication which many teachers envision as the influential dialogue they conduct with their students. However, communication in the mathematics classroom operates in different forms at different levels, both externally and internally. Specifically, it can be a central component in the building of critical thinking skills that requires students not only to know how to communicate their solutions to others but that they also be able to navigate their own thought processes in search of those solutions. This paper provides a review of research on the role of communication in the building of critical thinking skills in mathematics with a focus on the problem-solving process and the implications this interplay has for the teaching and learning of mathematics.

Keywords: communication in mathematics, critical thinking skills, mathematics education, problem-solving process

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Authors: Unal Atakan Kahraman, Yilmaz Uyaroğlu

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The chaotic signals generated by chaotic systems have some properties such as randomness, complexity and sensitive dependence on initial conditions, which make them particularly suitable for secure communications. Since the 1990s, the problem of secure communication, based on chaos synchronization, has been thoroughly investigated and many methods, for instance, robust and adaptive control approaches, have been proposed to realize the chaos synchronization. In this paper, an improved secure communication model is proposed based on control of supply chain management system. Control and masking communication simulation results are used to visualize the effectiveness of chaotic supply chain system also performed on the application of secure communication to the chaotic system. So, we discover the secure phenomenon of chaos-amplification in supply chain system

Keywords: chaotic analyze, control, secure communication, supply chain attractor

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Authors: Enno R. Farahzehan, Wustari L. Mangundjaya

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Organizational change is necessary to develop innovation and to compete with other competitors. Organizational changes were also made to defend the existence of the organization itself. Success in implementing organizational change consists of a variety of factors, one of which is individual (employee) who run changes. The employee must have the willingness and ability in carrying out the changes. Besides, employees must also have a commitment to change for creation of the successful organizational change. This study aims to execute the effect of change communication towards commitment to change through the role of organizational trust. The respondents of this study were employees who work in organizations, which have been or are currently running organizational changes. The data were collected using Change Communication, Commitment to Change, and Organizational Trust Inventory. The data were analyzed using regression. The result showed that there is an effect among change communication towards commitment to change which is higher when mediated by organizational trust. This paper will contribute to the knowledge and implications of organizational change, that shows change communication can affect commitment to change among employee if there is trust in the organization.

Keywords: change communication, commitment to change, organizational trust, organizational change

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Authors: Pitsanu Tongkhow, Pichet Jiraprasertwong

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This research investigates risk factors for defective products in autoparts factories. Under a Bayesian framework, a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) in which the dependent variable, the number of defective products, has a Poisson distribution is adopted. Its performance is compared with the Poisson GLM under a Bayesian framework. The factors considered are production process, machines, and workers. The products coded RT50 are observed. The study found that the Poisson GLMM is more appropriate than the Poisson GLM. For the production Process factor, the highest risk of producing defective products is Process 1, for the Machine factor, the highest risk is Machine 5, and for the Worker factor, the highest risk is Worker 6.

Keywords: defective autoparts products, Bayesian framework, generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), risk factors

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Authors: Ivan N. Gallegos, Merle Dawn Comidoy, Mira Sol Cabal, Paul Martin Acol, Arnie Polistico

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Barangay Health Workers (BHWs) are the lead health advocates who provide basic health care services at the grass-roots level. Hence, adequate skills and training are needed to deliver these services effectively. The study aimed at identifying the communication needs of Barangay health workers situated at the dumpsite of Davao City, Philippines, gravitating towards designing a communication plan tailor-fitted to their needs. It employed a qualitative research design, particularly an in-depth interview of the health workers. Several communication problems were identified, including the lack of participation of BHWs in the Barangay development plan, the lack of a continuous skills enhancement program, ineffective communication strategies resulting in insufficient knowledge of proper personal hygiene, and the inactive participation of community members in health services. Based on these communication problems, the following activities and training were suggested: capacitating BHWs on writing proposals and plans; basic communication skills training; educational seminars for parents; and a sanitation campaign.

Keywords: communication planning, health care services, Barangay health workers, communication strategies

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Authors: Volkan Altintas, Burcu Oksuz

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Tourism industry essentially requires effective crisis management and crisis communication skills, as it is extremely vulnerable to crises. In terms of destinations, tourism crises cause dramatic decreases in the number of inbound tourists, impairment in the destination’s image, and decline in the level of preferability of the destination not only in the short but also in the long term. Therefore, any destination should be well prepared for crisis situation that may arise for various reasons. Currently, the advancement in communication technologies enables and facilitates information and experience to spread rapidly, and negative information and experiences tend to be shared to a further extent. Destinations are broadly exposed to the impacts of such communication stream. Turkey is almost continuously exposed to crises and their adverse impacts as a tourism destination, and thus requires effective crisis communication activities to be maintained. Hence, the approaches of tourism managers toward crisis communication and their proposals for addressing issues in question are important. This study intends to set forth the considerations of the managers serving in the tourism industry about crisis communication at destinations. The theoretical part of the study describes and explains crisis management and crisis communication at destinations; following which are provided the outcomes of the thorough in-depth interviews and discussions conducted for the establishment of the considerations of tourism managers. Managers indicated the role and importance of crisis communications in destinations.

Keywords: crisis communication, crisis management, destination, tourism managers

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Authors: Todd R. Walton

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Social media would seem to be an ideal mechanism for crisis communication, yet it has been met with varied results. Natural disasters, such as hurricanes, provide a slow moving view of how social media can be leveraged to guide stakeholders and the public through a crisis. Crisis communication managers have struggled to reach target audiences with credible messaging. This Qualitative Evidence Synthesis (QES) analyzed the findings of eight studies published in the last year to determine how organizations effectively utilize social media for crisis communication. Additionally, the evidence was analyzed to note strategies for establishing credibility in a medium fraught with misinformation. Studies indicated wide agreement on the use of multiple social media channels in addition to frequent accurate messaging in order to establish credibility. Studies indicated mixed agreement on the use of text based emergency notification systems. The findings in this QES will help crisis communication professionals plan for social media use for crisis communication.

Keywords: crisis communication, crisis management, emergency response, social media

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Authors: Arūnas Gudinavičius

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The historiography of scholarly journals in Eastern Europe is fragmented, and so far, the development of scholarly journals in Eastern Europe has not been studied from a publishing point of view in the context of scientific communication. There are only a few general articles on the period before World War II; also, there is hardly any systematic and publicly available information about the Soviet period and the situation of scientific communication in Eastern Europe at the end of the XX century and the beginning of the XXI century. There is a lack of research data on scholarly journals in Lithuania. The existing researches focuses mostly on the specific needs of academic institutions. The publication of scientific journals and papers is analyzed as a part of the scientific communication circle. Formal science communication from the point of view that it is the results formed in the course of communication are examined, which are necessarily characterized by long-term access to a large circle of users. Improved model of scientific communication by supplementing the dissemination of research results with formal and informal communication channels is used, according to which the scientific communication system forms the essence of science, where the social, lasting value of science and the dissemination of scientific results to scientists and the public are the most important. The model covers the science communication process from research initiation to journal publication and citation. We are focusing on the publishing and dissemination stages of the model of scientific communication. The paper is to systematize and analyze the various types of scientific journal publishers from 1907 until 2020 as a means of formal documentary communication in the context of all scientific communication. The research analyses the case of a small European country and presents chronological and geographical characteristics of the publication of scientific periodicals, analyzes the publishers of scientific periodicals and their activities, publishing formats, and dissemination methods.

Keywords: scientific communication, scientific periodicals, scientific journals, publishing

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Authors: Jeannette Anniés, Panagiotis Michalis, Chrysoula Papathanasiou, Selby Knudsen

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RiskPACC project aims to bring together researchers, practitioners, and first responders from nine European countries following a co-creation approach aiming to develop customised solutions to meet the needs of end-users. The co-creation workshops target to enhance the communication pathways between local civil protection authorities (CPAs) and citizens, in an effort to close the risk perception-action gap (RPAG). The participants in the workshops include a variety of stakeholders, as well as citizens, fostering the dialogue between the groups and supporting citizen participation in disaster risk management (DRM). The co-creation methodology in place implements co-design elements due to the integration of four ICT tools. Such ICT tools include web-based and mobile application technical solutions in different development stages, ranging from formulation and validation of concepts to pilot demonstrations. In total, seven different case studies are foreseen in RiskPACC. The workflow of the workshops is designed to be adaptive to every of the seven case study countries and their cultures’ particular needs. This work aims to provide an overview of the the preparation and the conduction of the workshops in which researchers and practitioners focused on mapping these different needs from the end users. The latter included first responders but also volunteers and citizens who actively participated in the co-creation workshops. The strategies to improve communication between CPAs and citizens themselves differ in the countries, and the modules of the co-creation methodology are adapted in response to such differences. Moreover, the project partners experienced how the structure of such workshops is perceived differently in the seven case studies. Therefore, the co-creation methodology itself is a design method underlying several iterations, which are eventually shaped by cross-cultural collaboration. For example, some case studies applied other modules according to the participatory group recruited. The participants were technical experts, teachers, citizens, first responders, or volunteers, among others. This work aspires to present the divergent approaches of the seven case studies implementing the co-creation methodology proposed, in response to different perceptions of the modules. An analysis of the adaptations and implications will also be provided to assess where the case studies’ objective of improving disaster resilience has been obtained.

Keywords: citizen participation, co-creation, disaster resilience, risk perception, ICT tools

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Authors: Jorge M. Uribe

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We propose a methodology for setting the price of an insurance contract targeted to manage the risk associated with weather conditions that affect variable renewable energy generation. The methodology relies on conditional quantile regressions to estimate the weather risk of a solar panel. It is illustrated using real daily radiation and weather data for three cities in Spain (Valencia, Barcelona and Madrid) from February 2/2004 to January 22/2019. We also adapt the concepts of value at risk and expected short fall from finance to this context, to provide a complete panorama of what we label as weather risk. The methodology is easy to implement and can be used by insurance companies to price a contract with the aforementioned characteristics when data about similar projects and accurate cash flow projections are lacking. Our methodology assigns a higher price to an insurance product with the stated characteristics in Madrid, compared to Valencia and Barcelona. This is consistent with Madrid showing the largest interquartile range of operational deficits and it is unrelated to the average value deficit, which illustrates the importance of our proposal.

Keywords: insurance, weather, vre, risk

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Authors: Abderrazek Ben Maatoug, Ibrahim Fatnassi, Wassim Ben Ayed

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In this paper we investigate the issue of market risk quantification for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Islamic market equity. We use Value-at-Risk (VaR) as a measure of potential risk in Islamic stock market, for long and short position, based on Riskmetrics model and the conditional parametric ARCH class model volatility with normal, student and skewed student distribution. The sample consist of daily data for the 2006-2014 of 11 Islamic stock markets indices. We conduct Kupiec and Engle and Manganelli tests to evaluate the performance for each model. The main finding of our empirical results show that (i) the superior performance of VaR models based on the Student and skewed Student distribution, for the significance level of α=1% , for all Islamic stock market indices, and for both long and short trading positions (ii) Risk Metrics model, and VaR model based on conditional volatility with normal distribution provides the best accurate VaR estimations for both long and short trading positions for a significance level of α=5%.

Keywords: value-at-risk, risk management, islamic finance, GARCH models

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Authors: Seung Hun Lee, Sang Yeoup Lee

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Objectives: To investigate associations between degrees of obesity using correlations between obesity indices and cardiometabolic risk factors. Methods: BMI, waist circumference (WC), fasting insulin, fasting glucose, lipids, and visceral adipose tissue (VAT) area using computed tomographic images were measured in 113 obese female without cardiovascular disease (CVD). Correlations between obesity indices and cardiometabolic risk factors were analyzed in obese subgroups defined using sequential obesity indices. Results: Mean BMI and WC were 29.6 kg/m2 and 92.8 cm. BMI showed significant correlations with all five cardiometabolic risk factors until the BMI cut-off point reached 27 kg/m2, but when it exceeded 30 kg/m2, correlations no longer existed. WC was significantly correlated with all five cardiometabolic risk factors up to a value of 85 cm, but when WC exceeded 90 cm, correlations no longer existed. Conclusions: Our data suggest that moderate weight-loss goals may not be enough to ameliorate cardiometabolic markers in severely obese patients. Therefore, individualized weight-loss goals should be recommended to such patients to improve health benefits.

Keywords: correlation, cardiovascular disease, risk factors, obesity

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Authors: Shervin Alaei, Reza Moradi

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Trading in financial markets is subject to risks due to their high volatilities. Here, using an LSTM neural network, and by doing some risk-based feature engineering tasks, we developed a method that can accurately predict trends of the Tehran stock exchange market index from a few days ago. Our test results have shown that the proposed method with an average prediction accuracy of more than 94% is superior to the other common machine learning algorithms. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work incorporating deep learning and risk factors to accurately predict market trends.

Keywords: deep learning, LSTM, trend prediction, risk management, artificial neural networks

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Authors: Narong Anurak

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The objective of this research was to study Brand Position Communication Channel in Brand Building in Rajabhat University Affecting Decision Making of Higher Education from of qualitative research and in-depth interview with executive members Rajabhat University and also quantitative by questionnaires which are personal data of students, study of the acceptance and the finding of the information of Rajabhat University, study of pattern or Brand Position Communication Channel affecting the decision making of studying in Rajabhat University and the result of the communication in Brand Position Communication Channel. It is found that online channel and word of mount are highly important and necessary for education business since media channel is a tool and the management of marketing communication to create brand awareness, brand credibility and to achieve the high acclaim in terms of bringing out qualified graduates. Also, off-line channel can enable the institution to survive from the high competition especially in education business regarding management of the Rajabhat University. Therefore, Rajabhat University has to communicate by the various communication channel strategies for brand building for attractive student to make decision making of higher education.

Keywords: brand position, communication channel, Rajabhat University, higher education

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Authors: Pubudu K. Hitigala Kaluarachchilage, Champike Attanayake, Sasith Rajasooriya, Chris P. Tsokos

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Operating system (OS) security is a key component of computer security. Assessing and improving OSs strength to resist against vulnerabilities and attacks is a mandatory requirement given the rate of new vulnerabilities discovered and attacks occurring. Frequency and the number of different kinds of vulnerabilities found in an OS can be considered an index of its information security level. In the present study five mostly used OSs, Microsoft Windows (windows 7, windows 8 and windows 10), Apple’s Mac and Linux are assessed for their discovered vulnerabilities and the risk associated with each. Each discovered and reported vulnerability has an exploitability score assigned in CVSS score of the national vulnerability database. In this study the risk from vulnerabilities in each of the five Operating Systems is compared. Risk Indexes used are developed based on the Markov model to evaluate the risk of each vulnerability. Statistical methodology and underlying mathematical approach is described. Initially, parametric procedures are conducted and measured. There were, however, violations of some statistical assumptions observed. Therefore the need for non-parametric approaches was recognized. 6838 vulnerabilities recorded were considered in the analysis. According to the risk associated with all the vulnerabilities considered, it was found that there is a statistically significant difference among average risk levels for some operating systems, indicating that according to our method some operating systems have been more risk vulnerable than others given the assumptions and limitations. Relevant test results revealing a statistically significant difference in the Risk levels of different OSs are presented.

Keywords: cybersecurity, Markov chain, non-parametric analysis, vulnerability, operating system

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Authors: Kitti Leangkrua

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This paper presents a risk-based maintenance strategy of a power transformer in order to optimize operating and maintenance costs. The methodology involves the study and preparation of a database for the collection the technical data and test data of a power transformer. An evaluation of the overall condition of each transformer is performed by a program developed as a result of the measured results; in addition, the calculation of the main equipment separation to the overall condition of the transformer (% HI) and the criteria for evaluating the importance (% ImI) of each location where the transformer is installed. The condition assessment is performed by analysis test data such as electrical test, insulating oil test and visual inspection. The condition of the power transformer will be classified from very poor to very good condition. The importance is evaluated from load criticality, importance of load and failure consequence. The risk matrix is developed for evaluating the risk of each power transformer. The high risk power transformer will be focused firstly. The computerized program is developed for practical use, and the maintenance strategy of a power transformer can be effectively managed.

Keywords: asset management, risk-based maintenance, power transformer, health index

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Authors: Sadaf Khalid, Jahanzaib Sarwar, Rabia Touseef

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No matter how much perfect we become in our practical skills regarding the implementation of learned ideas, the need of technical writing capability cannot be neglected to be a professional. Technical writing is a way of communicating the ideas in written which, otherwise, need to be presented orally. Technical writing skills have always been the need of the time, as they are required for internal, as well as external official communication in both formal and informal manner. Moreover, they are the best way to capture the attention of your customers by presenting information in an effective manner. This paper aims to analyze the importance of technical writing skills in professional industries of Pakistan by conducting a survey. Survey results presented in this paper clearly depicts the importance of formal and informal written communication media used in different professional industries in Pakistan. Analysis and discussion of the extent to which the alternative ways of communication besides technical writing have got importance in Pakistan is also an important aspect of this survey.

Keywords: technical writing, survey, oral communication, globalization, communication trends, formal communication media, informal communication, audience

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Authors: Marc S. Paolella, Pawel Polak

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The paper proposes a framework for large-scale portfolio optimization which accounts for all the major stylized facts of multivariate financial returns, including volatility clustering, dynamics in the dependency structure, asymmetry, heavy tails, and non-ellipticity. It introduces a so-called risk fear portfolio strategy which combines portfolio optimization with active risk monitoring. The former selects optimal portfolio weights. The latter, independently, initiates market exit in case of excessive risks. The strategy agrees with the stylized fact of stock market major sell-offs during the initial stage of market downturns. The advantages of the new framework are illustrated with an extensive empirical study. It leads to superior multivariate density and Value-at-Risk forecasting, and better portfolio performance. The proposed risk fear portfolio strategy outperforms various competing types of optimal portfolios, even in the presence of conservative transaction costs and frequent rebalancing. The risk monitoring of the optimal portfolio can serve as an early warning system against large market risks. In particular, the new strategy avoids all the losses during the 2008 financial crisis, and it profits from the subsequent market recovery.

Keywords: comfort, financial crises, portfolio optimization, risk monitoring

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Authors: Wlodzimierz Ogryczak, Michal Przyluski, Tomasz Sliwinski

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In problems of portfolio selection, the reward-risk ratio criterion is optimized to search for a risky portfolio with the maximum increase of the mean return in proportion to the risk measure increase when compared to the risk-free investments. In the classical model, following Markowitz, the risk is measured by the variance thus representing the Sharpe ratio optimization and leading to the quadratic optimization problems. Several Linear Programming (LP) computable risk measures have been introduced and applied in portfolio optimization. In particular, the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) measure has been widely recognized. The reward-risk ratio optimization with the MAD measure can be transformed into the LP formulation with the number of constraints proportional to the number of scenarios and the number of variables proportional to the total of the number of scenarios and the number of instruments. This may lead to the LP models with huge number of variables and constraints in the case of real-life financial decisions based on several thousands scenarios, thus decreasing their computational efficiency and making them hardly solvable by general LP tools. We show that the computational efficiency can be then dramatically improved by an alternative model based on the inverse risk-reward ratio minimization and by taking advantages of the LP duality. In the introduced LP model the number of structural constraints is proportional to the number of instruments thus not affecting seriously the simplex method efficiency by the number of scenarios and therefore guaranteeing easy solvability. Moreover, we show that under natural restriction on the target value the MAD risk-reward ratio optimization is consistent with the second order stochastic dominance rules.

Keywords: portfolio optimization, reward-risk ratio, mean absolute deviation, linear programming

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Authors: Ljiljana Seric, Vladimir Divic, Marin Bugaric

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This paper presents methodology for spatial analysis of GIS data that is used for assessing the microlocation risk index from potential damages of high winds. The analysis is performed on freely available GIS data comprising information about wind load, terrain cover and topography of the area. The methodology utilizes the legislation of Eurocode norms for determination of wind load of buildings and constructions. The core of the methodology is adoption of the wind load parameters related to location on geographical spatial grid. Presented work is a part of the Wind Risk Project, supported by the European Commission under the Civil Protection Financial Instrument of the European Union (ECHO). The partners involved in Wind Risk project performed Wind Risk assessment and proposed action plan for three European countries – Slovenia, Croatia and Germany. The proposed method is implemented in GRASS GIS open source GIS software and demonstrated for Case study area of wider area of Split, Croatia. Obtained Wind Risk Index is visualized and correlated with critical infrastructures like buildings, roads and power lines. The results show good correlation between high Wind Risk Index with recent incidents related to wind.

Keywords: Eurocode norms, GIS, spatial analysis, wind distribution, wind risk

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Authors: Pegah Farshadmanesh, Jamshid Mohammadi, Mehdi Modares

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In nearly all earthquakes of the past century that resulted in moderate to significant damage, the occurrence of postearthquake fire ignition (PEFI) has imposed a serious hazard and caused severe damage, especially in urban areas. In order to reduce the loss of life and property caused by post-earthquake fires, there is a crucial need for predictive models to estimate the PEFI risk. The parameters affecting PEFI risk can be categorized as: 1) factors influencing fire ignition in normal (non-earthquake) condition, including floor area, building category, ignitability, type of appliance, and prevention devices, and 2) earthquake related factors contributing to the PEFI risk, including building vulnerability and earthquake characteristics such as intensity, peak ground acceleration, and peak ground velocity. State-of-the-art statistical PEFI risk models are solely based on limited available earthquake data, and therefore they cannot predict the PEFI risk for areas with insufficient earthquake records since such records are needed in estimating the PEFI model parameters. In this paper, the correlation between normal condition ignition risk, peak ground acceleration, and PEFI risk is examined in an effort to offer a means for predicting post-earthquake ignition events. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate how such correlation can be employed in a seismic area to predict PEFI hazard.

Keywords: fire risk, post-earthquake fire ignition (PEFI), risk management, seismicity

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Authors: Sunita Patel

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Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of morbidity as well as mortality in India. Objective of this study is to examine CVDs prevalence and identify their behavioral and cultural risk factors with the help of SAGE-2007 data conducted on 6th states in India. Findings reveal that 18.3% of people diagnosed with CVDs in India. Higher disease occurs in an increasing rate between ages of 30-39 having OR 2.45 (CI: 1.66-3.63) and 70+ age OR 7.45 (CI: 4.82-11.49) times higher compare to 18-29 age group respectively. Wealth quintile higher CVD occurs as 3rd in 60% (CI: 1.16-2.21) and in richest 5th quintile 58% (CI: 1.13-2.21) contrast to lowest quintile. Relative risk depicted that 22.4% in moderate and 44% in vigorous activity have less chance of diseases compare to who performed no work and those who consumed alcohol. Results reveal that policy prospect should be recommended and that it would be beneficial for awareness of people and their future.

Keywords: behavioral risk, cultural risk, cardio-vascular diseases, wealth quintile

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Authors: George Mariano Soriano

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In this study, a Rapid Earthquake Risk Ranking Criteria was formulated by integrating various existing maps and databases by the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) and Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Utilizing Geographic Information System (GIS) software, the above-mentioned maps and databases were used in extracting seismic hazard parameters and bridge vulnerability characteristics in order to rank the seismic damage risk rating of bridges in the National Capital Region.

Keywords: bridge, earthquake, GIS, hazard, risk, vulnerability

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Authors: Ping Yang

Abstract:

Dating interaction between males and females remains an interesting and mysterious event, particularly in different cultural contexts. This paper focuses on a comparative study of different communication styles males and females use while engaged in dating interaction in the Australian and Chinese contexts. Using communication accommodation theory (CAT) as an analytical framework, the researcher studies how the Australian males and females used a generally different communication style in an Australian dating show (Married at First Sight) than that used by their Chinese counterparts in a Chinese one (非诚勿扰, You Are the One). Based on the qualitative data analysis through NVivo 12 as a research tool, the researcher finds that Australian males and females generally use a divergent communication style characterized by self-orientation, directness, and confrontation, while Chinese counterparts use a convergent communication style characterized by other-orientation, indirectness, and non-confrontation. The researcher concludes with two possible reasons behind the similar TV dating event but with different dramas. One is due to different cultures with varying styles of communication, and the other is because of different drama effect designs suitable for different audience expectations in different cultural contexts.

Keywords: communication styles, cultural contexts, face-to-face interaction, TV dating.

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