Search results for: coherent forecasts

Authors: Prashanth Pillai, Purnaprajna Mangsuli

Abstract:

Oil exploration and production companies invest considerable time and efforts to extract essential well attributes (like well status, surface, and target coordinates, wellbore depths, event timelines, etc.) from unstructured data sources like technical reports, which are often non-standardized, multimodal, and highly domain-specific by nature. It is also important to consider the context when extracting attribute values from reports that contain information on multiple wells/wellbores. Moreover, semantically similar information may often be depicted in different data syntax representations across multiple pages and document sources. We propose a hierarchical multi-source fact extraction workflow based on a deep learning framework to extract essential well attributes at scale. An information retrieval module based on the transformer architecture was used to rank relevant pages in a document source utilizing the page image embeddings and semantic text embeddings. A question answering framework utilizingLayoutLM transformer was used to extract attribute-value pairs incorporating the text semantics and layout information from top relevant pages in a document. To better handle context while dealing with multi-well reports, we incorporate a dynamic query generation module to resolve ambiguities. The extracted attribute information from various pages and documents are standardized to a common representation using a parser module to facilitate information comparison and aggregation. Finally, we use a probabilistic approach to fuse information extracted from multiple sources into a coherent well record. The applicability of the proposed approach and related performance was studied on several real-life well technical reports.

Keywords: natural language processing, deep learning, transformers, information retrieval

Procedia PDF Downloads 177

Authors: Alexis Akinyemi, Laurene Houtin

Abstract:

Measures of employee motivation at work are often based on the theory of self-determined motivation, which implies that human resources departments and managers seek to motivate employees in the most self-determined way possible and use strategies to achieve this goal. In practice, they often tend to assess employee motivation and then adapt management to the most important source of motivation for their employees, for example by financially rewarding an employee who is extrinsically motivated, and by rewarding an intrinsically motivated employee with congratulations and recognition. Thus, the use of motivation measures contradicts theoretical positioning: theory does not provide for the promotion of extrinsically motivated behaviour. In addition, a corpus of social psychology linked to fundamental needs makes it possible to personally address a person’s different sources of motivation (need for cognition, need for uniqueness, need for effects and need for closure). By developing a composite measure of motivation based on these needs, we provide human resources professionals, and in particular occupational psychologists, with a tool that complements the assessment of self-determined motivation, making it possible to precisely address the objective of adapting work not to the self-determination of behaviours, but to the motivational traits of employees. To develop such a model, we gathered the French versions of the cognitive needs scales (need for cognition, need for uniqueness, need for effects, need for closure) and conducted a study with 645 employees of several French companies. On the basis of the data collected, we conducted a confirmatory factor analysis to validate the model, studied the correlations between the various needs, and highlighted the different reference groups that could be used to use these needs as a basis for interviews with employees (career, recruitment, etc.). The results showed a coherent model and the expected links between the different needs. Taken together, these results make it possible to propose a valid and theoretically adjusted tool to managers who wish to adapt their management to their employees’ current motivations, whether or not these motivations are self-determined.

Keywords: motivation, personality, work commitment, cognitive needs

Procedia PDF Downloads 99

Authors: Shan Zhang, Peter Suechting

Abstract:

Predicting trade patterns is critical to decision-making in public and private domains, especially in the current context of trade disputes among major economies. In the past, U.S. recycling has relied heavily on strong demand for recyclable materials overseas. However, starting in 2017, a series of new recycling policies (bans and higher inspection standards) was enacted by multiple countries that were the primary importers of recyclables from the U.S. prior to that point. As the global trade flow of recycling shifts, some new importers, mostly developing countries in South and Southeast Asia, have been overwhelmed by the sheer quantities of scrap materials they have received. As the leading exporter of recyclable materials, the U.S. now has a pressing need to build its recycling industry domestically. With respect to the global trade in scrap materials used for recycling, the interest in this paper is (1) predicting how the export of recyclable materials from the U.S. might vary over time, and (2) predicting how international trade flows for recyclables might change in the future. Focusing on three major recyclable materials with a history of trade, this study uses data-driven and machine learning (ML) algorithms---supervised (shrinkage and tree methods) and unsupervised (neural network method)---to decipher the international trade pattern of recycling. Forecasting the potential trade values of recyclables in the future could help importing countries, to which those materials will shift next, to prepare related trade policies. Such policies can assist policymakers in minimizing negative environmental externalities and in finding the optimal amount of recyclables needed by each country. Such forecasts can also help exporting countries, like the U.S understand the importance of healthy domestic recycling industry. The preliminary result suggests that gravity models---in addition to particular selection macroeconomic predictor variables--are appropriate predictors of the total export value of recyclables. With the inclusion of variables measuring aspects of the political conditions (trade tariffs and bans), predictions show that recyclable materials are shifting from more policy-restricted countries to less policy-restricted countries in international recycling trade. Those countries also tend to have high manufacturing activities as a percentage of their GDP.

Keywords: environmental economics, machine learning, recycling, international trade

Procedia PDF Downloads 149

Authors: Mihaja Razafimbelo, Guillaume Herve-Secourgeon, Fabrice Gatuingt, Marina Bottoni, Tulio Honorio-De-Faria

Abstract:

The challenge of the research is to provide engineering with a robust, semi-automatic method for calculating optimal reinforcement for massive structural elements. In the absence of such a digital post-processing tool, design office engineers make intensive use of plate modelling, for which automatic post-processing is available. Plate models in massive areas, on the other hand, produce conservative results. In addition, the theoretical foundations of automatic post-processing tools for reinforcement are those of reinforced concrete beam sections. As long as there is no suitable alternative for automatic post-processing of plates, optimal modelling and a significant improvement of the constructability of massive areas cannot be expected. A method called strut-and-tie is commonly used in civil engineering, but the result itself remains very subjective to the calculation engineer. The tool developed will facilitate the work of supporting the engineers in their choice of structure. The method implemented consists of defining a ground-structure built on the basis of the main constraints resulting from an elastic analysis of the structure and then to start an optimization of this structure according to the fully stressed design method. The first results allow to obtain a coherent return in the first network of connecting struts and ties, compared to the cases encountered in the literature. The evolution of the tool will then make it possible to adapt the obtained latticework in relation to the cracking states resulting from the loads applied during the life of the structure, cyclic or dynamic loads. In addition, with the constructability constraint, a final result of reinforcement with an orthogonal arrangement with a regulated spacing will be implemented in the tool.

Keywords: strut and tie, optimization, reinforcement, massive structure

Procedia PDF Downloads 126

Authors: Sirajo Abubakar, Ismail Ahmad Abir, Muhammad Sabiu Bala, Muhammad Mustapha Adejo, Aravind Shanmugaveloo

Abstract:

Over the years, land subsidence has been a serious threat mostly to urban areas. Land subsidence is the sudden sinking or gradual downward settling of the ground’s surface with little or no horizontal motion. In most areas, land subsidence is a slow process that covers a large area; therefore, it is sometimes left unnoticed. South of Johor is the area of interest for this project because it is going through rapid urbanization. The objective of this research is to evaluate and identify potential deformations in the south of Johor using integrated remote sensing and 2D resistivity methods. Synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR) which is a remote sensing technique has the potential to map coherent displacements at centimeter to millimeter resolutions. Persistent scatterer interferometry (PSI) stacking technique was applied to Sentinel-1 data to detect the earth deformation in the study area. A dipole-dipole configuration resistivity profiling was conducted in three areas to determine the subsurface features in that area. This subsurface features interpreted were then correlated with the remote sensing technique to predict the possible causes of subsidence and uplifts in the south of Johor. Based on the results obtained, West Johor Bahru (0.63mm/year) and Ulu Tiram (1.61mm/year) are going through uplift due to possible geological uplift. On the other end, East Johor Bahru (-0.26mm/year) and Senai (-1.16mm/year) undergo subsidence due to possible fracture and granitic boulders loading. Land subsidence must be taken seriously as it can cause serious damages to infrastructures and human life. Monitoring land subsidence and taking preventive actions must be done to prevent any disasters.

Keywords: interferometric synthetic aperture radar, persistent scatter, minimum spanning tree, resistivity, subsidence

Procedia PDF Downloads 126

Authors: Synthia A. Sari

Abstract:

The transparent nomination and selection process is the first step to obtaining qualified members of board. It is believed as the representative (agent) of the owners, members of the board must consist of competent and professional people. However, the development of transparent and ideal nomination and selection process in Indonesian State-owned enterprises (SOEs) has been based on relatively little research. Considering the relative importance attached by boards to conduct their roles in their principal’s interest in a variety of governance tasks in state-owned enterprises, the primary aim of this paper is to shed light on the extent of nomination and selection process impact performance of the board in implementing good corporate governance in Indonesian SOEs. The exploratory nature of this study led to the adoption of a qualitative research methodology which uses semi-structured interviews and publically available documents to collect a range of data pertaining board nomination and selection and the work of boards. Interviews were conducted with four informants from three Indonesian SOEs and Ministry of SOEs. Findings in this study demonstrate unclear job description and expectations board members as a result of unclear functions of the board in Indonesian SOEs make transparent and accountable nomination and selection process hard to conduct. This situation is vulnerable to the influences from political interest and that even the process itself can degenerate into situations of political interference. In the end, it leads to choosing the wrong person for membership of the board. This study makes a significant contribution to several fields; the human resource management, corporate governance, and Southeast studies by addressing the basic research gaps of board selection process issues in Indonesian SOEs. The gap is addressed by providing a more coherent framework for effective nomination and selection system which reflects more clearly the real experiences of those actually involved at board level.

Keywords: board selection and nomination process, Indonesian stated-owned enterprises, good corporate governance, political influence

Procedia PDF Downloads 243

Authors: Ella Tyuryumina, Alexey Neznanov

Abstract:

This paper is devoted to mathematical modelling of the progression and stages of breast cancer. We propose Consolidated mathematical growth model of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases (CoM-III) as a new research tool. We are interested in: 1) modelling the whole natural history of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; 2) developing adequate and precise CoM-III which reflects relations between primary tumor and secondary distant metastases; 3) analyzing the CoM-III scope of application; 4) implementing the model as a software tool. Firstly, the CoM-III includes exponential tumor growth model as a system of determinate nonlinear and linear equations. Secondly, mathematical model corresponds to TNM classification. It allows to calculate different growth periods of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases: 1) ‘non-visible period’ for primary tumor; 2) ‘non-visible period’ for secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; 3) ‘visible period’ for secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases. The new predictive tool: 1) is a solid foundation to develop future studies of breast cancer models; 2) does not require any expensive diagnostic tests; 3) is the first predictor which makes forecast using only current patient data, the others are based on the additional statistical data. Thus, the CoM-III model and predictive software: a) detect different growth periods of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; b) make forecast of the period of the distant metastases appearance in patients with lymph nodes metastases; c) have higher average prediction accuracy than the other tools; d) can improve forecasts on survival of breast cancer and facilitate optimization of diagnostic tests. The following are calculated by CoM-III: the number of doublings for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of secondary distant metastases; tumor volume doubling time (days) for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of secondary distant metastases. The CoM-III enables, for the first time, to predict the whole natural history of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth on each stage (pT1, pT2, pT3, pT4) relying only on primary tumor sizes. Summarizing: a) CoM-III describes correctly primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth of IA, IIA, IIB, IIIB (T1-4N1-3M0) stages in patients with lymph nodes metastases (N1-3); b) facilitates the understanding of the appearance period and inception of secondary distant metastases.

Keywords: breast cancer, exponential growth model, mathematical model, primary tumor, secondary metastases, survival

Procedia PDF Downloads 285

Authors: Iman Shabanzadeh

Abstract:

In terms of its geopolitical position, Iran has been one of the main centers of migration movements in the world in recent decades. However, the policy makers' lack of preparation in completing the cycle of social integration of these immigrants, especially the second and third generation, has caused these people to always be prone to leave the country and immigrate to developed and industrialized countries. In this research, the issue of integration of immigrants in Iran from the perspective of four indicators, "Identity Documents", "Access to Banking Services", "Access to Health and Treatment Services" and "Obtaining a Driver's License" will be analyzed. The research method is descriptive-analytical. To collect information, library and document sources in the field of laws and regulations related to immigrants' rights in Iran, semi-structured interviews with experts have been used. The investigations of this study show that none of the residence documents of immigrants in Iran guarantee the full enjoyment of basic citizenship rights for them. In fact, the function of many of these identity documents, such as the census card, educational support card, etc., is only to prevent crossing the border, and none of them guarantee the basic rights of citizenship. Therefore, for many immigrants, the difference between legality and illegality is only in the risk of crossing the border, and this has led to the spread of the habit of illegal presence for them. Despite this, it seems that there is no clear and coherent policy framework around the issue of foreign immigrants in the country. This policy incoherence can be clearly seen in the diversity and plurality of identity and legal documents of the citizens present in the country and the policy maker's lack of planning to integrate and organize the identity of this huge group. Examining the differences and socioeconomic inequalities between immigrants and the native Iranian population shows that immigrants have been poorly integrated into the structures of Iranian society from an economic and social point of view.

Keywords: immigrants, social integration, citizen services, structural inequality

Procedia PDF Downloads 30

Authors: Dileep K. Verma, Sunil K. Lal

Abstract:

Influenza still remains one of the most challenging diseases posing significant threat to public health causing seasonal epidemics and pandemics. Previous studies suggest that influenza hemagglutinin is essential for viral attachment to host sialic acid receptors and concentrate in lipid rafts for efficient viral fusion. Studies also reported selective nature of Influenza virus to utilize rafts micro-domain for efficient virus assembly and budding. However, the detailed mechanism of Influenza A Virus (IAV) binding to host cell membrane and entry inside the host remains elusive. In the present study, we investigated if host membrane lipid rafts play any significant role in early life cycle events of influenza A virus. Role of host lipid rafts was studied using raft disruption method by extraction of cholesterol and Methyl-β-Cyclodextrin was used to remove membrane cholesterol. We observed co-localization of Influenza A Virus to lipid rafts by visualization of known lipid raft marker GM1 on host cell membrane. Co-localization suggest direct involvement of these micro-domain in initiation of IAV life cycle. We found significant reduction in influenza A virus adsorption in raft disrupted target host cells indicating poor binding and attachment in absence of coherent membrane rafts. Taken together, the results of present study provide evidence for critical involvement of host lipid rafts and its constituents in adsorption process of Influenza A Virus and suggests crucial involvement in other early events of IAV life cycle. The present study opens a new domain to study influenza virus-host interaction and to combat flu at the very early steps of viral life cycle.

Keywords: lipid raft, adsorption, cholesterol, methyl-β-cyclodextrin, GM1

Procedia PDF Downloads 280

Authors: Nuur Insan Tangkelangi

Abstract:

Needs on academic writing competence as the primary focus in higher education encourage the university institutions around the world to provide academic writing courses to support their students dealing with their tasks pertaining to this competence. However, a pilot study conducted previously in one of the universities in Palopo, a city in South Sulawesi, revealed that even though the institution has provided academic writing courses, supported by some workshops related to academic writing and some supporting facilities at campus, the students still face difficulties in completing their assignments related to academic writing, particularly in writing their theses. The present study focuses on investigating the specific needs of the students in the same institution in terms of competences required in academic writing. It is also carried out to examine whether the syllabus exists and accommodates the students’ needs or not. Questionnaire and interview were used to collect data from sixty students of sixth semester and two lecturers of the academic courses. The results reveal that the students need to learn all aspects of linguistic competence (language features, lexical phrases, academic language and vocabulary, and proper language) and some aspects in discourse competence (how to write introduction, search for appropriate literature, design research method, write coherent paragraphs, refer to sources, summarize and display data, and link sentences smoothly). Regarding the syllabus, it is found that the academic writing courses provided in the institution, where this study takes place, do not have syllabus. This condition is different from other institutions which provide syllabi for all courses. However, at the commencement of the course, the students and the lecturers have negotiated their learning goals, topics discussed, learning activities, and assessment criteria for the course. Therefore, even though the syllabus does not exist, but the elements of the syllabus are there. The negotiation between the students and the lecturers contributes to the students’ attitude toward the courses. The students are contented with the course and they feel that their needs in academic writing have been accommodated. However, some suggestions for the next academic writing courses are stated by the students. Considering the results of this study, a syllabus is then proposed which is expected to accommodate the specific needs of students in that institution.

Keywords: Students' needs, academic writing, syllabus design for instruction, case study

Procedia PDF Downloads 187

Authors: Walid Tawfik

Abstract:

The interaction of intense short nano- and picosecond laser pulses with plasma leads to reach variety of important applications, including time-resolved laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS), soft x-ray lasers, and laser-driven accelerators. The progress in generating of femtosecond down to sub-10 fs optical pulses has opened a door for scientists with an essential tool in many ultrafast phenomena, such as femto-chemistry, high field physics, and high harmonic generation (HHG). The advent of high-energy laser pulses with durations of few optical cycles provided scientists with very high electric fields, and produce coherent intense UV to NIR radiation with high energy which allows for the investigation of ultrafast molecular dynamics with femtosecond resolution. In this work, we could experimentally achieve the generation of a two-octave-wide supercontinuum ultrafast pulses extending from ultraviolet at 3.5 eV to the near-infrared at 1.3 eV in neon-filled capillary fiber. These pulses are created due to nonlinear self-phase modulation (SPM) in neon as a nonlinear medium. The measurements of the generated pulses were performed using spectral phase interferometry for direct electric-field reconstruction. A full characterization of the output pulses was studied. The output pulse characterization includes the pulse width, the beam profile, and the spectral bandwidth. Under optimization conditions, the reconstructed pulse intensity autocorrelation function was exposed for the shorts possible pulse duration to achieve transform-limited pulses with energies up to 600µJ. Furthermore, the effect of variation of neon pressure on the pulse-width was studied. The nonlinear SPM found to be increased with the neon pressure. The obtained results may give an opportunity to monitor and control ultrafast transit interaction in femtosecond chemistry.

Keywords: femtosecond laser, ultrafast, supercontinuum, ultra-broadband

Procedia PDF Downloads 189

Authors: Mpho Agnes Mbeo, Patient Rambe

Abstract:

The thirteenth year of the Central University of Technology, Free State’s (CUT) transition from a vocational and professional training orientation institution (i.e. a technikon) into a university with a strong research focus has neither been a smooth nor an easy one. At the heart of this transition was the need to transform the psychological faculties of academic and research staffs compliment who were accustomed to training graduates for industrial placement. The lack of a culture of research that fully embraces a strong ethos of conducting world-class research needed to be addressed. The induction and socialisation of academic staff into the development and execution of cutting-edge research also required the provision of research support and the creation of a conducive academic environment for research, both for emerging and non-research active academics. Drawing on ten cases, comprising four heads of departments, three prolific established researchers, and three emerging researchers, this study explores the challenges faced in establishing a strong research culture at the university. Furthermore, it gives an account of the extent to which the current research interventions have addressed the perceivably “missing research culture”, and the implications of these interventions for knowledge management. Evidence suggests that the endowment of an ideal institutional research environment (comprising strong internet networks, persistent connectivity on and off campus), research peer mentorship, and growing publication outputs should be matched by a coherent research incentive culture and strong research leadership. This is critical to building new knowledge and entrenching knowledge management founded on communities of practice and scholarly networking through the documentation and communication of research findings. The study concludes that the multiple policy documents set for the different domains of research may be creating pressure on researchers to engage research activities and increase output at the expense of research quality.

Keywords: Central University of Technology, performance, publication, research culture, university

Procedia PDF Downloads 150

Authors: Ella Tyuryumina, Alexey Neznanov

Abstract:

Finding algorithms to predict the growth of tumors has piqued the interest of researchers ever since the early days of cancer research. A number of studies were carried out as an attempt to obtain reliable data on the natural history of breast cancer growth. Mathematical modeling can play a very important role in the prognosis of tumor process of breast cancer. However, mathematical models describe primary tumor growth and metastases growth separately. Consequently, we propose a mathematical growth model for primary tumor and primary metastases which may help to improve predicting accuracy of breast cancer progression using an original mathematical model referred to CoM-IV and corresponding software. We are interested in: 1) modelling the whole natural history of primary tumor and primary metastases; 2) developing adequate and precise CoM-IV which reflects relations between PT and MTS; 3) analyzing the CoM-IV scope of application; 4) implementing the model as a software tool. The CoM-IV is based on exponential tumor growth model and consists of a system of determinate nonlinear and linear equations; corresponds to TNM classification. It allows to calculate different growth periods of primary tumor and primary metastases: 1) ‘non-visible period’ for primary tumor; 2) ‘non-visible period’ for primary metastases; 3) ‘visible period’ for primary metastases. The new predictive tool: 1) is a solid foundation to develop future studies of breast cancer models; 2) does not require any expensive diagnostic tests; 3) is the first predictor which makes forecast using only current patient data, the others are based on the additional statistical data. Thus, the CoM-IV model and predictive software: a) detect different growth periods of primary tumor and primary metastases; b) make forecast of the period of primary metastases appearance; c) have higher average prediction accuracy than the other tools; d) can improve forecasts on survival of BC and facilitate optimization of diagnostic tests. The following are calculated by CoM-IV: the number of doublings for ‘nonvisible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of primary metastases; tumor volume doubling time (days) for ‘nonvisible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of primary metastases. The CoM-IV enables, for the first time, to predict the whole natural history of primary tumor and primary metastases growth on each stage (pT1, pT2, pT3, pT4) relying only on primary tumor sizes. Summarizing: a) CoM-IV describes correctly primary tumor and primary distant metastases growth of IV (T1-4N0-3M1) stage with (N1-3) or without regional metastases in lymph nodes (N0); b) facilitates the understanding of the appearance period and manifestation of primary metastases.

Keywords: breast cancer, exponential growth model, mathematical modelling, primary metastases, primary tumor, survival

Procedia PDF Downloads 317

Authors: Yu-Wen Chen, Szu-Wei Huang, Chung-Hsiang Mu, Kelvin Cheng

Abstract:

This paper developed a data-driven based model to deal with the causality between the Continuous Emission Monitoring System (CEMS, by Environmental Protection Administration, Taiwan) in industrial factories, and the air quality around environment. Compared to the heavy burden of traditional numerical models of regional weather and air pollution simulation, the lightweight burden of the proposed model can provide forecasting hourly with current observations of weather, air pollution and emissions from factories. The observation data are included wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, temperature and others. The observations can be collected real time from Open APIs of civil IoT Taiwan, which are sourced from 439 weather stations, 10,193 qualitative air stations, 77 national quantitative stations and 140 CEMS quantitative industrial factories. This study completed a causal inference engine and gave an air pollution forecasting for the next 12 hours related to local industrial factories. The outcomes of the pollution forecasting are produced hourly with a grid resolution of 1km*1km on IIoTC (Industrial Internet of Things Cloud) and saved in netCDF4 format. The elaborated procedures to generate forecasts comprise data recalibrating, outlier elimination, Kriging Interpolation and particle tracking and random walk techniques for the mechanisms of diffusion and advection. The solution of these equations reveals the causality between factories emission and the associated air pollution. Further, with the aid of installed real-time flue emission (Total Suspension Emission, TSP) sensors and the mentioned forecasted air pollution map, this study also disclosed the converting mechanism between the TSP and PM2.5/PM10 for different region and industrial characteristics, according to the long-term data observation and calibration. These different time-series qualitative and quantitative data which successfully achieved a causal inference engine in cloud for factory management control in practicable. Once the forecasted air quality for a region is marked as harmful, the correlated factories are notified and asked to suppress its operation and reduces emission in advance.

Keywords: continuous emission monitoring system, total suspension particulates, causal inference, air pollution forecast, IoT

Procedia PDF Downloads 59

Authors: Eli Buchbinder

Abstract:

Introduction. Language is the basis to our experience as human being. We use language in describing our experiences and construct meaning and narratives from experiences. Metaphors are a valuable linguistic tool commonly use. Metaphors link two domains that are ordinarily not related. Metaphors achieve simultaneously multi-level integration: abstract and concrete, rational and imaginative, familiar and the unfamiliar, conscious and preconscious/unconscious. As such, metaphors epistemological and ontological tool that are important in social work in every field and domain. Goals and Methods The presentation’s aim is to validate the value of metaphors through the first psychiatric breakdown is a traumatic for families. The presentation is based on two pooled qualitative studies. The first study focused on 12 spouses: 7 women and 5 men, between the ages of 22 and 57, regarding their experiences and meanings of the first psychiatric hospitalization of their partners diagnosed with affective disorders. The second study focused on 10 parents, between the ages of 47 and 62, regarding their experiences and meanings following their child's first psychotic breakdown during young adulthood. Results Two types of major metaphors evolved from the interviews in farming the trauma of the first mental breakdown. The first mode - orientation (spatial) metaphors, reflect symbolic expression of the loss of a secure base, represented in the physical environment, e.g., describing hospitalization as "falling into an abyss." The second mode- ontological metaphors, reflect how parents and spouses present their traumatic experiences of hospitalization in terms of discrete, powerful and coherent entities, e.g., describing the first hospitalization as "swimming against the tide." The two metaphors modes reflect the embodiment of the unpredictability, being mired in distress, shock, intense pain and the experience the collapse of continuity on the life course and cuts off the experience of control. Conclusions Metaphors are important and powerful guide in assessing individuals and families’ phenomenological reality. As such, metaphors are useful for understanding and orientated therapeutic intervening, in the studies above, with the first psychiatric hospitalization experienced, as well as in others social workers’ interventions.

Keywords: first mental breakdown, metaphors, family perspective, qualitative research

Procedia PDF Downloads 55

Authors: Patrick Ebong Ebewo

Abstract:

The trend of high unemployment levels globally is a growing concern, which suggests that university students especially those studying the creative industries are most likely to face unemployment upon completion of their studies. Therefore the effort of university in fostering entrepreneurial knowledge is equally important to the development of student’s soft skill. The purpose of this paper is to assess the significance of perceived university environment and perceived educational support that influencing University students’ intention in starting their own business in the future. Thus, attempting to answer the question 'How does perceived university environment affect students’ attitude towards entrepreneurship as a career option, perceived entrepreneurial abilities, subjective norm and entrepreneurial intentions?' The study is based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour model adapted from previous studies and empirically tested on graduates at the Tshwane University of Technology. A sample of 150 graduates from the Arts and Design graduates took part in the study and data collected were analysed using structural equation modelling (SEM). Our findings seem to suggest the indirect impact of perceived university environment on entrepreneurial intention through perceived environment support and perceived entrepreneurial abilities. Thus, any increase in perceived university environment might influence students to become entrepreneurs. Based on these results, it is recommended that: (a) Tshwane University of Technology and other universities of technology should establish an ‘Entrepreneurship Internship Programme’ as a tool for stimulated work integrated learning. Post-graduation intervention could be implemented by the development of a ‘Graduate Entrepreneurship Program’ which should be embedded in the Bachelor of Technology (B-Tech now Advance Diploma) and Postgraduate courses; (b) Policymakers should consider the development of a coherent national policy framework that addresses entrepreneurship for the Arts/creative industries sector. This would create the enabling environment for the evolution of Higher Education Institutions from merely Teaching, Learning & Research to becoming drivers for creative entrepreneurship.

Keywords: business venture, entrepreneurship education, entrepreneurial intent, university environment

Procedia PDF Downloads 317

Authors: Sadia H. Syeda, Zain H. Malik

Abstract:

As systems continue to become more complex and the interdependencies of processes and sub-systems continue to grow and transform, the need for a comprehensive method of tracking and linking the lifecycle of the systems in a digital form becomes ever more critical. Digital Engineering (DE) provides an approach to managing an authoritative data source that links, tracks, and updates system data as it evolves and grows throughout the system development lifecycle. DE enables the developing, tracking, and sharing system data, models, and other related artifacts in a digital environment accessible to all necessary stakeholders. The DE environment provides an integrated electronic repository that enables traceability between design, engineering, and sustainment artifacts. The DE activities' primary objective is to develop a set of integrated, coherent, and consistent system models for the program. It is envisioned to provide a collaborative information-sharing environment for various stakeholders, including operational users, acquisition personnel, engineering personnel, and logistics and sustainment personnel. Examining the processes that DE can support in the systems engineering life cycle (SELC) is a primary step in the DE adoption and implementation journey. Through an analysis of the U.S Department of Defense’s (DoD) Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD’s) Digital Engineering Strategy and their implementation, examples of DE implementation by the industry and technical organizations, this paper will provide descriptions of the current DE processes and best practices of implementing DE across an enterprise. This will help identify the capabilities, environment, and infrastructure needed to develop a potential roadmap for implementing DE practices consistent with its business strategy. A capability maturity matrix will be provided to assess the organization’s DE maturity emphasizing how all the SELC elements interlink to form a cohesive ecosystem. If implemented, DE can increase efficiency and improve the systems engineering processes' quality and outcomes.

Keywords: digital engineering, digital environment, digital maturity model, single source of truth, systems engineering life-cycle

Procedia PDF Downloads 73

Authors: Marco Camilli

Abstract:

This article examines the impact of the pandemic outbreak of COVID-19 in the tourism sector in Italy, analyzing the current scenario, the government decisions and the private company reaction for the summer season 2020. The framework of the data analyzed shows how massive it’s the impact of the pandemic outbreak in the tourism revenue, and the weaknesses of the measures proposed. Keywords Travel &Tourism, Transportation, Sustainability, COVID-19, Businesses Introduction The current COVID-19 scenario shows a shocking situation for the tourism and transportation sectors: it could be the most affected by the Coronavirus in Italy. According to forecasts, depending on the duration of the epidemic outbreak and the lockdown strategy applied by the Government, businesses in the supply chain could lose between 24 and 66 billion in turnover in the period of 2020-21, with huge diversified impacts at the national and regional level. Many tourist companies are on the verge of survival and if there are no massive measures by the government they risk closure. Data analysis The tourism and transport sector could be among the sectors most damaged by Covid-19 in Italy. Considering the two-year period 2020-21, companies operating in the travel & tourism sector (Tour operator, Travel Agencies, Hotel, Guides, Bus Company, etc..) could in suffer losses in revenues of 24 to 64 billion euros, especially in the sectors such as the travel agencies, hotel and rental. According to Statista Research Department, from April 2020 estimated that the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic will have a significant impact on revenues of the tourism industry in Italy. Revenues are expected to decrease by over 40 billion euros in the first semester of 2020, compared to the same period of the previous year. According to the study, hotel and non-hotel accommodations will experience the highest loss. Revenues of this sector are expected to decrease by 13 billion euros compared to the first semester of 2019 when accommodations registered revenues for about 17 billion euros. According to Statista.com, in 2020, Italy is expected to register a decrease of roughly 28.5 million tourist arrivals due to the impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) on the country's tourist sector. According to the estimate, the region of Veneto will record the highest drop with a decrease of roughly 4.61 million arrivals. Similarly, Lombardy is expected to register a decrease of about 3.87 million arrivals in 2020.

Keywords: travel and tourism, sustainability, COVID-19, businesses, transportation

Procedia PDF Downloads 174

Authors: Huseyin Guler, Cigdem Kosar

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to propose Bridge estimator for seasonal unit root tests. Seasonality is an important factor for many economic time series. Some variables may contain seasonal patterns and forecasts that ignore important seasonal patterns have a high variance. Therefore, it is very important to eliminate seasonality for seasonal macroeconomic data. There are some methods to eliminate the impacts of seasonality in time series. One of them is filtering the data. However, this method leads to undesired consequences in unit root tests, especially if the data is generated by a stochastic seasonal process. Another method to eliminate seasonality is using seasonal dummy variables. Some seasonal patterns may result from stationary seasonal processes, which are modelled using seasonal dummies but if there is a varying and changing seasonal pattern over time, so the seasonal process is non-stationary, deterministic seasonal dummies are inadequate to capture the seasonal process. It is not suitable to use seasonal dummies for modeling such seasonally nonstationary series. Instead of that, it is necessary to take seasonal difference if there are seasonal unit roots in the series. Different alternative methods are proposed in the literature to test seasonal unit roots, such as Dickey, Hazsa, Fuller (DHF) and Hylleberg, Engle, Granger, Yoo (HEGY) tests. HEGY test can be also used to test the seasonal unit root in different frequencies (monthly, quarterly, and semiannual). Another issue in unit root tests is the lag selection. Lagged dependent variables are added to the model in seasonal unit root tests as in the unit root tests to overcome the autocorrelation problem. In this case, it is necessary to choose the lag length and determine any deterministic components (i.e., a constant and trend) first, and then use the proper model to test for seasonal unit roots. However, this two-step procedure might lead size distortions and lack of power in seasonal unit root tests. Recent studies show that Bridge estimators are good in selecting optimal lag length while differentiating nonstationary versus stationary models for nonseasonal data. The advantage of this estimator is the elimination of the two-step nature of conventional unit root tests and this leads a gain in size and power. In this paper, the Bridge estimator is proposed to test seasonal unit roots in a HEGY model. A Monte-Carlo experiment is done to determine the efficiency of this approach and compare the size and power of this method with HEGY test. Since Bridge estimator performs well in model selection, our approach may lead to some gain in terms of size and power over HEGY test.

Keywords: bridge estimators, HEGY test, model selection, seasonal unit root

Procedia PDF Downloads 309

Authors: Darren J. Ellis

Abstract:

This paper investigates the key industry-level consequences and future prospects for the global airline industry of the requirement for airlines to have a home base. This industry context results in geographical location playing a central role in determining how and where international airlines can operate, and the extent to which their international networks can develop. Data from a five stage mixed-methods Delphi study into the global airline industry’s likely future trajectory conducted in 2013 and 2014 are utilized to better understand the likelihood and consequences of home base requirements changing in future. Expert views and forecasts were collected to gauge core industry trends over a ten year timeframe. Attempts to change or bypass this industry requirement have not been successful to date outside of the European single air market. Europe remains the only prominent exception to the general rule in this regard. Most of the industry is founded on air space sovereignty, the nationality rule, and the bilateral system of traffic rights. Europe’s exceptionalism has seen it evolve into a single air market with characteristics similar to a nation-state, rather than to become a force for wider industry change and regional multilateralism. Europe has indeed become a key actor in global aviation, but Europe seems to now be part of the industry’s status quo, not a vehicle for substantially wider multilateralism around the world. The findings from this research indicate that the bilateral system is not viewed by most study experts as disappearing or substantially weakening in the foreseeable future. However, regional multilateralism was also viewed as progressively taking hold in the industry in future, demonstrating that for most industry experts the two are not seen as mutually exclusive but rather as being able to co-exist with each other. This reality ensures that geographical location will continue to play an important role in the global airline industry in future and that, home base requirements will not disappear any time soon either. Even moves in some aviation jurisdictions to dilute nationality requirements for airlines, and instead replace ownership and control restrictions with principal place of business tests, do not ultimately free airlines from their home base. Likewise, an expansion of what constitutes home base to include a regional grouping of countries – again, a currently uncommon reality in global aviation – does not fundamentally weaken the continued relevance of geographical location to the global industry’s future growth and development realities and prospects.

Keywords: airline industry, air space sovereignty, geographical location, home base

Procedia PDF Downloads 113

Authors: Katarzyna Pawęska, Aleksandra Bawiec, Ewa Burszta-Adamiak, Wiesław Fiałkiewicz

Abstract:

The water shortage becomes a serious problem not only in African and Middle Eastern countries, but also recently in the European Union. Scarcity of water means that not all agricultural, industrial and municipal needs will be met. When the annual availability of renewable freshwater per capita is less than 1,700 cubic meters, countries begin to experience periodic or regular water shortages. The phenomenon of water stress is the result of an imbalance between the constantly growing demand for water and its availability. The constant development of industry, population growth, and climate changes make the situation even worse. The search for alternative water sources and independent supplies is becoming a priority for many countries. Data enabling the assessment of country’s condition regarding water resources, water consumption, water price, wastewater volume, forecasted climate changes e.g. temperature, precipitation, are scattered and their interpretation by common entrepreneurs may be difficult. For this purpose, a digital tool has been developed to support decisions related to the implementation of water and wastewater re-use systems, as a result of an international research project “Framework for organizational decision-making process in water reuse for smart cities” (SMART-WaterDomain) funded under the EIG-CONCERT Japan call on Smart Water Management for Sustainable Society. The developed geo-visualization tool graphically presents, among others, data about the capacity of wastewater treatment plants and the volume of water demand in the private and public sectors for Poland, Germany, and the Czech Republic. It is expected that such a platform, extended with economical water management data and climate forecasts (temperature, precipitation), will allow in the future independent investigation and assessment of water use rate and wastewater production on the local and regional scale. The tool is a great opportunity for small business owners, entrepreneurs, farmers, local authorities, and common users to analyze the impact of climate change on the availability of water in the regions of their business activities. Acknowledgments: The authors acknowledge the support of the Project Organisational Decision Making in Water Reuse for Smart Cities (SMART- WaterDomain), funded by The National Centre for Research and Development and supported by the EIG-Concert Japan.

Keywords: circular economy, digital tool, geo-visualization, wastewater re-use

Procedia PDF Downloads 37

Authors: Nikolaos Koulouris, Anna Kasapoglou, Dimitris Koros

Abstract:

The paper aims to present the course of ongoing research concerning the treatment of pretrial detainees, convicted or released prisoners for sexual offenses, an area that has not received much attention in Greece in terms of the prison experience and the reintegration potentials regarding this specific category of prisoners. The study plan provides for the use of a combination of research methods (focus groups with prisoners, structured individual interviews with prisoners and prison staff). Also, interviews with ex-prisoners detained regarding sexual offenses will take place. In Greece, there are no special provisions for the treatment of sexual offenders in prison, nor are there any special programs in place for their rehabilitation. Sexual offenders are usually separated from other prisoners, as the informal code of the social organization of the prison community dictates, despite no relevant legal framework. The study aims to explore the reasons for the separate detention of sexual offenders and discuss their special (non) treatment from different points of view, namely the legality and legitimacy of this discriminatory practice in terms of prisoners’ protection, safety, stigmatization, and possible social exclusion, as well as their post-release expectations and social reintegration potentials. The purpose of the research is the exploration of the prison experience of sexual offenders, the exercise of their legal rights, their adjustment to the demands of social life in prison, as well as the role of prison officers and various interventions aiming to their preparation for reentry to society. The study will take into consideration the European and international prison/penitentiary standards and best practices in order to examine the issue comparatively, while the contribution of the United Nations and the Council of Europe and its standards will be used to assess the treatment of sexual offenders in terms of its compatibility to international and European model-rules and trends. The outcome will be utilized to form main directions and propositions for a coherent and consistent human rights-based and social integration-oriented penal policy regarding the treatment of persons accused or convicted of sexual offenses in Greece.

Keywords: prisoners’ treatment, sex offenders, social exclusion, social reintegration

Procedia PDF Downloads 134

Authors: Sulemana Ibrahim

Abstract:

Food security remains a paramount global challenge, with vulnerable regions grappling with issues of hunger and malnutrition. This study embarks on a comprehensive exploration of data-driven strategies aimed at ameliorating food security in such regions. Our research employs a multifaceted approach, integrating data analytics to predict crop yields, optimizing supply chains, and enhancing food distribution networks. The study unfolds as a multi-dimensional analysis, commencing with the development of robust machine learning models harnessing remote sensing data, historical crop yield records, and meteorological data to foresee crop yields. These predictive models, underpinned by convolutional and recurrent neural networks, furnish critical insights into anticipated harvests, empowering proactive measures to confront food insecurity. Subsequently, the research scrutinizes supply chain optimization to address food security challenges, capitalizing on linear programming and network optimization techniques. These strategies intend to mitigate loss and wastage while streamlining the distribution of agricultural produce from field to fork. In conjunction, the study investigates food distribution networks with a particular focus on network efficiency, accessibility, and equitable food resource allocation. Network analysis tools, complemented by data-driven simulation methodologies, unveil opportunities for augmenting the efficacy of these critical lifelines. This study also considers the ethical implications and privacy concerns associated with the extensive use of data in the realm of food security. The proposed methodology outlines guidelines for responsible data acquisition, storage, and usage. The ultimate aspiration of this research is to forge a nexus between data science and food security policy, bestowing actionable insights to mitigate the ordeal of food insecurity. The holistic approach converging data-driven crop yield forecasts, optimized supply chains, and improved distribution networks aspire to revitalize food security in the most vulnerable regions, elevating the quality of life for millions worldwide.

Keywords: data-driven strategies, crop yield prediction, supply chain optimization, food distribution networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 41

Authors: Maria Cherepanova, Svetlana Maximova

Abstract:

Background And Aims: Suicide is among ten most common causes of death of the working-age population in the world. According to the WHO forecasts, by 2025 suicide will be the third leading cause of death, after cardiovascular diseases and cancer. In 2019, the global suicide rate in the world was 10,5 per 100,000 people. In Russia, the average figure was 11.6. However, in some depressed regions of Russia, such as Buryatia and Altai, it reaches 35.3. The aim of this study was to develop models based on the regional factors of social well-being deprivation that provoke the suicidal risk of various age groups of Russian population. We also investigated suicidal risk prevention in modern Russia, analyzed its efficacy, and developed recommendations for suicidal risk prevention improvement. Methods: In this study, we analyzed the data from sociological surveys from six regions of Russia. Totally we interviewed 4200 people, the age of the respondents was from 16 to 70 years. The results were subjected to factorial and regression analyzes. Results: The results of our study indicate that young people are especially socially vulnerable, which result in ineffective patterns of self-preservation behavior and increase the risk of suicide. That is due to lack of anti-suicidal barriers formation; low importance of vital values; the difficulty or impossibility to achieve basic needs; low satisfaction with family and professional life; and decrease in personal unconditional significance. The suicidal risk of the middle-aged population is due to a decrease in social well-being in the main aspects of life, which determines low satisfaction, decrease in ontological security, and the prevalence of auto-aggressive deviations. The suicidal risk of the elderly population is due to increased factors of social exclusion which result in narrowing the social space and limiting the richness of life. Conclusions: The existing system for lowering suicide risk in modern Russia is predominantly oriented to a medical treatment, which provides only intervention to people who already committed suicide, that significantly limits its preventive effectiveness and social control of this deviation. The national strategy for suicide risk reduction in modern Russian society should combine medical and social activities, designed to minimize possible situations resulting to suicide. The strategy for elimination of suicidal risk should include a systematic and significant improvement of the social well-being of the population and aim at overcoming the basic aspects of social disadvantages such as poverty, unemployment as well as implementing innovative mental health improvement, developing life-saving behavior that will help to counter suicides in Russia.

Keywords: social factors, suicide, prevention, Russia

Procedia PDF Downloads 153

Authors: Geng Cui, Naoto Imura, Katsuhiro Nishinari, Takahiro Ezaki

Abstract:

The bullwhip effect, which refers to the amplification of demand variance as one moves up the supply chain, has been observed in various industries and extensively studied through analytic approaches. Existing methods to mitigate the bullwhip effect, such as decentralized demand information, vendor-managed inventory, and the Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment System, rely on the willingness and ability of supply chain participants to share their information. However, in practice, information sharing is often difficult to realize due to privacy concerns. The purpose of this study is to explore new ways to mitigate the bullwhip effect without the need for information sharing. This paper proposes a 'bullwhip absorption strategy' (BAS) to alleviate the bullwhip effect by absorbing it downstream in the supply chain. To achieve this, a two-stage supply chain system was employed, consisting of a single retailer and a single manufacturer. In each time period, the retailer receives an order generated according to an autoregressive process. Upon receiving the order, the retailer depletes the ordered amount, forecasts future demand based on past records, and places an order with the manufacturer using the order-up-to replenishment policy. The manufacturer follows a similar process. In essence, the mechanism of the model is similar to that of the beer game. The BAS is implemented at the retailer's level to counteract the bullwhip effect. This strategy requires the retailer to reduce the uncertainty in its orders, thereby absorbing the bullwhip effect downstream in the supply chain. The advantage of the BAS is that upstream participants can benefit from a reduced bullwhip effect. Although the retailer may incur additional costs, if the gain in the upstream segment can compensate for the retailer's loss, the entire supply chain will be better off. Two indicators, order variance and inventory variance, were used to quantify the bullwhip effect in relation to the strength of absorption. It was found that implementing the BAS at the retailer's level results in a reduction in both the retailer's and the manufacturer's order variances. However, when examining the impact on inventory variances, a trade-off relationship was observed. The manufacturer's inventory variance monotonically decreases with an increase in absorption strength, while the retailer's inventory variance does not always decrease as the absorption strength grows. This is especially true when the autoregression coefficient has a high value, causing the retailer's inventory variance to become a monotonically increasing function of the absorption strength. Finally, numerical simulations were conducted for verification, and the results were consistent with our theoretical analysis.

Keywords: bullwhip effect, supply chain management, inventory management, demand forecasting, order-to-up policy

Procedia PDF Downloads 51

Authors: Siamak Dawazdah Emami, Amin Khodaei, Harith Bin Ahmad, Hairul A. Adbul-Rashid

Abstract:

The Fano resonance effect on plasmonic nanoparticle materials results in such materials possessing a number of unique optical properties, and the potential applicability for sensing, nonlinear devices and slow-light devices. A Fano resonance is a consequence of coherent interference between superradiant and subradiant hybridized plasmon modes. Incident light on subradiant modes will initiate excitation that results in superradiant modes, and these superradient modes possess zero or finite dipole moments alongside a comparable negligible coupling with light. This research work details the derivation of an electrodynamics coupling model for the interaction of dipolar transitions and radiation via plasmonic nanoclusters such as quadrimers, pentamers and heptamers. The directivity calculation is analyzed in order to qualify the redirection of emission. The geometry of a configured array of nanostructures strongly influenced the transmission and reflection properties, which subsequently resulted in the directivity of each antenna being related to the nanosphere size and gap distances between the nanospheres in each model’s structure. A well-separated configuration of nanospheres resulted in the structure behaving similarly to monomers, with spectra peaks of a broad superradiant mode being centered within the vicinity of 560 nm wavelength. Reducing the distance between ring nanospheres in pentamers and heptamers to 20~60 nm caused the coupling factor and charge distributions to increase and invoke a subradiant mode centered within the vicinity of 690 nm. Increasing the outside ring’s nanosphere distance from the centered nanospheres caused the coupling factor to decrease, with the coupling factor being inversely proportional to cubic of the distance between nanospheres. This phenomenon led to a dramatic decrease of the superradiant mode at a 200 nm distance between the central nanosphere and outer rings. Effects from a superradiant mode vanished beyond a 240 nm distance between central and outer ring nanospheres.

Keywords: fano resonance, optical antenna, plasmonic, nano-clusters

Procedia PDF Downloads 416

Authors: Rohan Bhasin

Abstract:

Agrammatism in non-fluent Aphasia Cases can be defined as a language disorder wherein a patient can only use content words ( nouns, verbs and adjectives ) for communication and their speech is devoid of functional word types like conjunctions and articles, generating speech of with extremely rudimentary grammar . Past approaches involve Speech Therapy of some order with conversation analysis used to analyse pre-therapy speech patterns and qualitative changes in conversational behaviour after therapy. We describe this approach as a novel method to generate functional words (prepositions, articles, ) around content words ( nouns, verbs and adjectives ) using a combination of Natural Language Processing and Deep Learning algorithms. The applications of this approach can be used to assist communication. The approach the paper investigates is : LSTMs or Seq2Seq: A sequence2sequence approach (seq2seq) or LSTM would take in a sequence of inputs and output sequence. This approach needs a significant amount of training data, with each training data containing pairs such as (content words, complete sentence). We generate such data by starting with complete sentences from a text source, removing functional words to get just the content words. However, this approach would require a lot of training data to get a coherent input. The assumptions of this approach is that the content words received in the inputs of both text models are to be preserved, i.e, won't alter after the functional grammar is slotted in. This is a potential limit to cases of severe Agrammatism where such order might not be inherently correct. The applications of this approach can be used to assist communication mild Agrammatism in non-fluent Aphasia Cases. Thus by generating these function words around the content words, we can provide meaningful sentence options to the patient for articulate conversations. Thus our project translates the use case of generating sentences from content-specific words into an assistive technology for non-Fluent Aphasia Patients.

Keywords: aphasia, expressive aphasia, assistive algorithms, neurology, machine learning, natural language processing, language disorder, behaviour disorder, sequence to sequence, LSTM

Procedia PDF Downloads 145

Authors: Ahmed A. El-Gindy, Elham S. El-Nashar, Abdallah Nafaa, Sameh El-Kafrawy

Abstract:

The generation of energy from marine energy became one of the most preferable resources since it is a clean source and friendly to environment. Egypt has long shores along Mediterranean with important cities that need energy resources with significant wave energy. No detailed studies have been done on wave energy distribution in the Egyptian waters. The objective of this paper is to assess the energy wave power available in the Egyptian waters for the choice of the most suitable devices to be used in this area. This paper deals the characteristics and power of the offshore waves in the Egyptian waters. Since the field observations of waves are not frequent and need much technical work, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis data in Mediterranean, with a grid size 0.75 degree, which is a relatively course grid, are considered in the present study for preliminary assessment of sea waves characteristics and power. The used data covers the period from 2012 to 2014. The data used are significant wave height (swh), mean wave period (mwp) and wave direction taken at six hourly intervals, at seven chosen stations, and at grid points covering the Egyptian waters. The wave power (wp) formula was used to calculate energy flux. Descriptive statistical analysis including monthly means and standard deviations of the swh, mwp, and wp. The percentiles of wave heights and their corresponding power are done, as a tool of choice of the best technology suitable for the site. The surfer is used to show spatial distributions of wp. The analysis of data at chosen 7 stations determined the potential of wp off important Egyptian cities. Offshore of Al Saloum and Marsa Matruh, the highest wp occurred in January and February (16.93-18.05) ± (18.08-22.12) kw/m while the lowest occurred in June and October (1.49-1.69) ± (1.45-1.74) kw/m. In front of Alexandria and Rashid, the highest wp occurred in January and February (16.93-18.05) ± (18.08-22.12) kw/m while the lowest occurred in June and September (1.29-2.01) ± (1.31-1.83) kw/m. In front of Damietta and Port Said, the highest wp occurred in February (14.29-17.61) ± (21.61-27.10) kw/m and the lowest occurred in June (0.94-0.96) ± (0.71-0.72) kw/m. In winter, the probabilities of waves higher than 0.8 m in percentage were, at Al Saloum and Marsa Matruh (76.56-80.33) ± (11.62-12.05), at Alexandria and Rashid (73.67-74.79) ± (16.21-18.59) and at Damietta and Port Said (66.28-68.69) ± (17.88-17.90). In spring, the percentiles were, at Al Saloum and Marsa Matruh, (48.17-50.92) ± (5.79-6.56), at Alexandria and Rashid, (39.38-43.59) ± (9.06-9.34) and at Damietta and Port Said, (31.59-33.61) ± (10.72-11.25). In summer, the probabilities were, at Al Saloum and Marsa Matruh (57.70-66.67) ± (4.87-6.83), at Alexandria and Rashid (59.96-65.13) ± (9.14-9.35) and at Damietta and Port Said (46.38-49.28) ± (10.89-11.47). In autumn, the probabilities were, at Al Saloum and Marsa Matruh (58.75-59.56) ± (2.55-5.84), at Alexandria and Rashid (47.78-52.13) ± (3.11-7.08) and at Damietta and Port Said (41.16-42.52) ± (7.52-8.34).

Keywords: distribution of sea waves energy, Egyptian Mediterranean waters, waves characteristics, waves power

Procedia PDF Downloads 166

Authors: Kevin Klein-Cardeña

Abstract:

For Julia Kristeva, contra Lacan, the instinctive body refuses to go away within discourse. Neither is the pre-Oedipal stage of maternal fusion vanquished by the emergence of language and with it, the law of the father. On the contrary, Kristeva argues, the pre-symbolic ambivalently haunts the society of speech, simultaneously animating and threatening the very foundations of signification. Kristeva invents the term “the semiotic” to refer to this continual breaking-through of the material unconscious onto the scene of meaning. This presentation examines Kristeva’s semiotic as a theoretical gesture that itself is a disruption of discourse, re-presenting the ‘return of the repressed’ body in theory—-the breaking-through of the unconscious onto the science of meaning. Faced with linguistic theories concerned with abstract sign-systems as well as Lacanian doctrine privileging the linguistic sign unequivocally over the bodily drive, Kristeva’s theoretical corpus issues the message of a psychic remainder that disrupts with a view toward replenishing theoretical accounts of language and sense. Reviewing Semiotic challenge across these two levels (the sense and science of language), the presentation suggests that Kristeva’s offerings constitute a coherent gestalt, providing an account of the feminist nature of her dual intervention. In contrast to other feminist critiques, Kristeva’s gesture hinges on its restoration of the maternal contribution to subjectivity. Against the backdrop of ‘phallogocentric’ and ‘necrophilic’ theories that strip language of a subject and strip the subject of a body, Kristeva recasts linguistic study through a metaphor of life and birthing. Yet the semiotic fragments the subject it produces, dialoguing with an unconscious curtailed by but also exceeding the symbolic order of signification. Linguistics, too, becomes fragmented in the same measure as it is more meaningfully renewed by its confrontation with the semiotic body. It is Kristeva’s own body that issues this challenge, on both sides of the boundary between the theory and the theorized. The Semiotic becomes comprehensible as a project unified by its concern to disrupt and rehabilitate language, the subject, and the scholarly discourses that treat them.

Keywords: Julia kristeva, the Semiotic, french feminism, psychoanalysic theory, linguistics

Procedia PDF Downloads 51

Authors: Ella Tyuryumina, Alexey Neznanov

Abstract:

This study is an attempt to obtain reliable data on the natural history of breast cancer growth. We analyze the opportunities for using classical mathematical models (exponential and logistic tumor growth models, Gompertz and von Bertalanffy tumor growth models) to try to describe growth of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases of human breast cancer. The research aim is to improve predicting accuracy of breast cancer progression using an original mathematical model referred to CoMPaS and corresponding software. We are interested in: 1) modelling the whole natural history of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases; 2) developing adequate and precise CoMPaS which reflects relations between the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases; 3) analyzing the CoMPaS scope of application; 4) implementing the model as a software tool. The foundation of the CoMPaS is the exponential tumor growth model, which is described by determinate nonlinear and linear equations. The CoMPaS corresponds to TNM classification. It allows to calculate different growth periods of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases: 1) ‘non-visible period’ for the primary tumor; 2) ‘non-visible period’ for the secondary distant metastases; 3) ‘visible period’ for the secondary distant metastases. The CoMPaS is validated on clinical data of 10-years and 15-years survival depending on the tumor stage and diameter of the primary tumor. The new predictive tool: 1) is a solid foundation to develop future studies of breast cancer growth models; 2) does not require any expensive diagnostic tests; 3) is the first predictor which makes forecast using only current patient data, the others are based on the additional statistical data. The CoMPaS model and predictive software: a) fit to clinical trials data; b) detect different growth periods of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases; c) make forecast of the period of the secondary distant metastases appearance; d) have higher average prediction accuracy than the other tools; e) can improve forecasts on survival of breast cancer and facilitate optimization of diagnostic tests. The following are calculated by CoMPaS: the number of doublings for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of the secondary distant metastases; tumor volume doubling time (days) for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of the secondary distant metastases. The CoMPaS enables, for the first time, to predict ‘whole natural history’ of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases growth on each stage (pT1, pT2, pT3, pT4) relying only on the primary tumor sizes. Summarizing: a) CoMPaS describes correctly the primary tumor growth of IA, IIA, IIB, IIIB (T1-4N0M0) stages without metastases in lymph nodes (N0); b) facilitates the understanding of the appearance period and inception of the secondary distant metastases.

Keywords: breast cancer, exponential growth model, mathematical model, metastases in lymph nodes, primary tumor, survival

Procedia PDF Downloads 326