Search results for: atmospheric pollutant prediction

Authors: Ngozi Claribelle Nwogu, Mohammed Nasir Kajama, Oyoh Kechinyere, Edward Gobina

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Atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions are considered as the greatest environmental challenge the world is facing today. The challenges to control the emissions include the recovery of CO2 from flue gas. This concern has been improved due to recent advances in materials process engineering resulting in the development of inorganic gas separation membranes with excellent thermal and mechanical stability required for most gas separations. This paper therefore evaluates the performance of a highly selective inorganic membrane for CO2 recovery applications. Analysis of results obtained is in agreement with experimental literature data. Further results show the prediction performance of the membranes for gas separation and the future direction of research. The materials selection and the membrane preparation techniques are discussed. Method of improving the interface defects in the membrane and its effect on the separation performance has also been reviewed and in addition advances to totally exploit the potential usage of this innovative membrane.

Keywords: carbon dioxide, gas separation, inorganic ceramic membrane, permselectivity

Procedia PDF Downloads 311

Authors: Danilo López, Edwin Rivas, Fernando Pedraza

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Currently, one of the major challenges in wireless networks is the optimal use of radio spectrum, which is managed inefficiently. One of the solutions to existing problem converges in the use of Cognitive Radio (CR), as an essential parameter so that the use of the available licensed spectrum is possible (by secondary users), well above the usage values that are currently detected; thus allowing the opportunistic use of the channel in the absence of primary users (PU). This article presents the results found when estimating or predicting the future use of a spectral transmission band (from the perspective of the PU) for a chaotic type channel arrival behavior. The time series prediction method (which the PU represents) used is ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System). The results obtained were compared to those delivered by the RNA (Artificial Neural Network) algorithm. The results show better performance in the characterization (modeling and prediction) with the ANFIS methodology.

Keywords: ANFIS, cognitive radio, prediction primary user, RNA

Procedia PDF Downloads 396

Authors: Kennedy Efosa Ehimwenma, Sujatha Krishnamoorthy, Safiya Al‑Sharji

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The probability computation of events is in the interval of [0, 1], which are values that are determined by the number of outcomes of events in a sample space S. The probability Pr(A) that an event A will never occur is 0. The probability Pr(B) that event B will certainly occur is 1. This makes both events A and B a certainty. Furthermore, the sum of probabilities Pr(E₁) + Pr(E₂) + … + Pr(Eₙ) of a finite set of events in a given sample space S equals 1. Conversely, the difference of the sum of two probabilities that will certainly occur is 0. This paper first discusses Bayes, the complement of probability, and the difference of probability for occurrences of learning-events before applying them in the prediction of learning objects in student learning. Given the sum of 1; to make a recommendation for student learning, this paper proposes that the difference of argMaxPr(S) and the probability of student-performance quantifies the weight of learning objects for students. Using a dataset of skill-set, the computational procedure demonstrates i) the probability of skill-set events that have occurred that would lead to higher-level learning; ii) the probability of the events that have not occurred that requires subject-matter relearning; iii) accuracy of the decision tree in the prediction of student performance into class labels and iv) information entropy about skill-set data and its implication on student cognitive performance and recommendation of learning.

Keywords: complement of probability, Bayes’ rule, prediction, pre-assessments, computational education, information theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: Xiaodong Li, Peng Gao, Chao-Jung Huang, Shiying Hao, Xuefeng B. Ling, Yongxia Han, Yaqi Zhang, Le Zheng, Chengyin Ye, Modi Liu, Minjie Xia, Changlin Fu, Bo Jin, Karl G. Sylvester, Eric Widen

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Predicting the risk of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma (PA) in advance can benefit the quality of care and potentially reduce population mortality and morbidity. The aim of this study was to develop and prospectively validate a risk prediction model to identify patients at risk of new incident PA as early as 3 months before the onset of PA in a statewide, general population in Maine. The PA prediction model was developed using Deep Neural Networks, a deep learning algorithm, with a 2-year electronic-health-record (EHR) cohort. Prospective results showed that our model identified 54.35% of all inpatient episodes of PA, and 91.20% of all PA that required subsequent chemoradiotherapy, with a lead-time of up to 3 months and a true alert of 67.62%. The risk assessment tool has attained an improved discriminative ability. It can be immediately deployed to the health system to provide automatic early warnings to adults at risk of PA. It has potential to identify personalized risk factors to facilitate customized PA interventions.

Keywords: cancer prediction, deep learning, electronic health records, pancreatic adenocarcinoma

Procedia PDF Downloads 129

Authors: Marine Segui, Ruxandra Mihaela Botez

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OpenVSP is an aerodynamic solver developed by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) that allows building a reliable model of an aircraft. This software performs an aerodynamic simulation according to the angle of attack of the aircraft makes between the incoming airstream, and its speed. A reliable aerodynamic model of the Cessna Citation X was designed but it required a lot of computation time. As a consequence, a prediction method was established that allowed predicting lift and drag coefficients for all Mach numbers and for all angles of attack, exclusively for stall conditions, from a computation of three angles of attack and only one Mach number. Aerodynamic coefficients given by the prediction method for a Cessna Citation X model were finally compared with aerodynamics coefficients obtained using a complete OpenVSP study.

Keywords: aerodynamic, coefficient, cruise, improving, longitudinal, openVSP, solver, time

Procedia PDF Downloads 213

Authors: E. A. Mlybari, M. S. Elbisy, A. H. Alshahri, O. M. Albarakati

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Sea level rise threatens to increase the impact of future storms and hurricanes on coastal communities. Accurate sea level change prediction and supplement is an important task in determining constructions and human activities in coastal and oceanic areas. In this study, support vector machines (SVM) is proposed to predict daily tidal levels along the Jeddah Coast, Saudi Arabia. The optimal parameter values of kernel function are determined using a genetic algorithm. The SVM results are compared with the field data and with back propagation (BP). Among the models, the SVM is superior to BPNN and has better generalization performance.

Keywords: tides, prediction, support vector machines, genetic algorithm, back-propagation neural network, risk, hazards

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Authors: Hasan G. Elmazoghi, Aisha I. Alzayani, Lubna S. Bentaher

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Rainfall is a highly non-linear phenomena, which requires application of powerful supervised data mining techniques for its accurate prediction. In this study the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique is used to predict the mean monthly historical rainfall data collected from BENINA station in Benghazi for 31 years, the period of “1977-2006” and the results are compared against the observed values. The specific objective to achieve this goal was to determine the best combination of weather variables to be used as inputs for the ANN model. Several statistical parameters were calculated and an uncertainty analysis for the results is also presented. The best ANN model is then applied to the data of one year (2007) as a case study in order to evaluate the performance of the model. Simulation results reveal that application of ANN technique is promising and can provide reliable estimates of rainfall.

Keywords: neural networks, rainfall, prediction, climatic variables

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Authors: V. Thomas, O. Delaune, W. Hennig, S. Hoover

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Measurement of radioactive isotopes of atmospheric xenon is used to detect, locate and identify any confined nuclear tests as part of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). In this context, the Alternative Energies and French Atomic Energy Commission (CEA) has developed a fixed device to continuously measure the concentration of these fission products, the SPALAX process. During its atmospheric transport, the radioactive xenon will undergo a significant dilution between the source point and the measurement station. Regarding the distance between fixed stations located all over the globe, the typical volume activities measured are near 1 mBq m⁻³. To avoid the constraints induced by atmospheric dilution, the development of a mobile detection system is in progress; this system will allow on-site measurements in order to confirm or infringe a suspicious measurement detected by a fixed station. Furthermore, this system will use beta/gamma coincidence measurement technique in order to drastically reduce environmental background (which masks such activities). The detector prototype consists of a gas cell surrounded by two large silicon wafers, coupled with two square NaI(Tl) detectors. The gas cell has a sample volume of 30 cm³ and the silicon wafers are 500 µm thick with an active surface area of 3600 mm². In order to minimize leakage current, each wafer has been segmented into four independent silicon pixels. This cell is sandwiched between two low background NaI(Tl) detectors (70x70x40 mm³ crystal). The expected Minimal Detectable Concentration (MDC) for each radio-xenon is in the order of 1-10 mBq m⁻³. Three 4-channels digital acquisition modules (Pixie-NET) are used to process all the signals. Time synchronization is ensured by a dedicated PTP-network, using the IEEE 1588 Precision Time Protocol. We would like to present this system from its simulation to the laboratory tests.

Keywords: beta/gamma coincidence technique, low level measurement, radioxenon, silicon pixels

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Authors: Ali Reza Sattarzadeh, Ronny J. Kutadinata, Pubudu N. Pathirana, Van Thanh Huynh

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Traffic congestion has become a severe worldwide problem, affecting everyday life, fuel consumption, time, and air pollution. The primary causes of these issues are inadequate transportation infrastructure, poor traffic signal management, and rising population. Traffic flow forecasting is one of the essential and effective methods in urban congestion and traffic management, which has attracted the attention of researchers. With the development of technology, undeniable progress has been achieved in existing methods. However, there is a possibility of improvement in the extraction of temporal and spatial features to determine the importance of traffic flow sequences and extraction features. In the proposed model, we implement the convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) deep learning models for mining nonlinear correlations and their effectiveness in increasing the accuracy of traffic flow prediction in the real dataset. According to the experiments, the results indicate that implementing Conv-LSTM networks increases the productivity and accuracy of deep learning models for traffic flow prediction.

Keywords: deep learning algorithms, intelligent transportation systems, spatiotemporal features, traffic flow prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: Jerome T. Tolentino, Ma. Victoria Rejuso, Jara Kaye Villanueva, Loureal Camille Inocencio, Ma. Rosario Concepcion O. Ang

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Wind energy is rapidly emerging as the primary source of electricity in the Philippines, although developing an accurate wind resource model is difficult. In this study, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, an open source mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model, was used to produce a 1-year atmospheric simulation with 4 km resolution on the Ilocos Region of the Philippines. The WRF output (netCDF) extracts the annual mean wind speed data using a Python-based Graphical User Interface. Lastly, wind resource assessment was produced using a GIS software. Results of the study showed that it is more flexible to use Python scripts than using other post-processing tools in dealing with netCDF files. Using WRF Model, Python, and Geographic Information Systems, a reliable wind resource map is produced.

Keywords: wind resource assessment, weather research and forecasting (WRF) model, python, GIS software

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Authors: Hamza Nejib, Okba Taouali

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This paper presents two of the most knowing kernel adaptive filtering (KAF) approaches, the kernel least mean squares and the kernel recursive least squares, in order to predict a new output of nonlinear signal processing. Both of these methods implement a nonlinear transfer function using kernel methods in a particular space named reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) where the model is a linear combination of kernel functions applied to transform the observed data from the input space to a high dimensional feature space of vectors, this idea known as the kernel trick. Then KAF is the developing filters in RKHS. We use two nonlinear signal processing problems, Mackey Glass chaotic time series prediction and nonlinear channel equalization to figure the performance of the approaches presented and finally to result which of them is the adapted one.

Keywords: online prediction, KAF, signal processing, RKHS, Kernel methods, KRLS, KLMS

Procedia PDF Downloads 375

Authors: Masahiro Ohmura, Koh Kakusho, Takeshi Okadome

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This paper presents a regression model with autocorrelated errors in which the inputs are social moods obtained by analyzing the adjectives in Twitter posts using a document topic model. The regression model predicts Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) more precisely than autoregressive moving-average models.

Keywords: stock market prediction, social moods, regression model, DJIA

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Authors: Nazanin Gerami, Shirin Adlparvar

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In the present time in the laboratory, one can create an ionized gas, that is to say, plasma from room temperature up to ten times more than the temperature of the sun center (150,000,000). All these temperature spectrums of plasma have applications in different disciplines, including dentistry, medicine, science, surface treatment, nuclear waste disinfection, nuclear fusion technology, etc. However, for the sick of simplicity, all these plasma temperature spectrums are classified as cold or low-pressure non-thermal plasma and warm or high-pressure equilibrium plasma. The cold plasma, as we are interested in this paper, exists at lower ion and neutral temperatures with respect to electron temperature, but in the equilibrium plasma, the temperatures of ion and electron are fairly equal. The cold plasma is a partially ionized gas comprising ions, electrons, ultraviolet photons and reactive neutrals such as radicals, excited and ground-state molecules. Cold atmospheric pressure plasmas are widely used in diverse fields of dental medicine, such as the titanium surface of dental implants, which helps in reducing contact angle and supporting the spread of osteoblastic cells and is known to aid in osteoblastic proliferation and osseointegration, thus increasing the success rates of implants. This article focuses on the anticipated uses of a newly designed water-cooled adjustable cathode cold atmospheric pressure plasma Jet (CAPPJ) for titanium surface treatment in dental implant placement.

Keywords: CAPPJ, surface modification, osseointegration, plasma medicine, dentistry

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Authors: S. K. Gali

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Spentwash, An effluent of distillery is an environmental pollutant because of its high load of pollutants (pH: 2-4; BOD>40,000 mg/l, COD>100,000mg/l and TDS >70,000mg/l). But However, after subjecting it to primary treatment (bio-methanation), Its pollutant load gets drastically reduced (pH: 7.5-8.5, BOD<10,000 mg/l) and could be disposed off safely as a source of organic matter and plant nutrients for crop production. With the consent of State Pollution Control Board, the distilleries in Karnataka are taking up ‘one time controlled land application’ of bio-methanated spentwash in farmers’ fields. A monitoring study was undertaken in Belgaum district of Karnataka State with an objective of studying the effect of land application of bio-methanated spent wash of a distillery on soil properties and crop growth. The treated spentwash was applied uniformly to the fallow dry lands in different farmers’ fields during summer, 2012 at recommended rate (based on nitrogen requirement of crops). The application was made at least a fortnight before sowing/planting operations. The analysis of soils collected before land application of spentwash and after harvest of crops revealed that there was no adverse effect of applied spentwash on soil characteristics. A slight build up in soluble salts was observed but, however all the soils recorded EC of less than 2.0 dSm-1. An increase in soil organic carbon (SOC) and available nitrogen (N) by about 10 to 30 % was observed in the spentwash applied soils. The presence of good amount of biodegradable organics in the treated spentwash (BOD of 6550 mg/l) contributed for increase in SOC and N. A substantial build up in available potassium (K) status (50 to 200%) was observed due to spentwash application. This was attributed to the high K content in spentwash (6950 mg/l). The growth of crops in the spentwash applied fields was higher and farmers could get nearly 10 to 20 per cent higher yields, especially in sugarcane and corn. The analysis of ground water samples showed that the quality of water was not affected due to land application of treated spentwash. Apart from realizing higher crop yields, the farmers were able to save money on N and K fertilisers as the applied spentwash met the crop requirement. Hence, it could be concluded that the bio-methanated distillery spentwash can be gainfully utilized in crop production without polluting the environment.

Keywords: bio-methanation, pollutant, potassium status, soil organic carbon

Procedia PDF Downloads 371

Authors: Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Mary Nsabagwa, Triphonia Jacob Ngailo, Joachim Reuder, Sch¨attler Ulrich, Musa Semujju

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The Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are considered powerful tools for guiding quantitative rainfall prediction. A couple of NWP models exist and are used at many operational weather prediction centers. This study considers two models namely the Consortium for Small–scale Modeling (COSMO) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It compares the models’ ability to predict rainfall over Uganda for the period 21st April 2013 to 10th May 2013 using the root mean square (RMSE) and the mean error (ME). In comparing the performance of the models, this study assesses their ability to predict light rainfall events and extreme rainfall events. All the experiments used the default parameterization configurations and with same horizontal resolution (7 Km). The results show that COSMO model had a tendency of largely predicting no rain which explained its under–prediction. The COSMO model (RMSE: 14.16; ME: -5.91) presented a significantly (p = 0.014) higher magnitude of error compared to the WRF model (RMSE: 11.86; ME: -1.09). However the COSMO model (RMSE: 3.85; ME: 1.39) performed significantly (p = 0.003) better than the WRF model (RMSE: 8.14; ME: 5.30) in simulating light rainfall events. All the models under–predicted extreme rainfall events with the COSMO model (RMSE: 43.63; ME: -39.58) presenting significantly higher error magnitudes than the WRF model (RMSE: 35.14; ME: -26.95). This study recommends additional diagnosis of the models’ treatment of deep convection over the tropics.

Keywords: comparative performance, the COSMO model, the WRF model, light rainfall events, extreme rainfall events

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Authors: Kemal Çomakli, Uğur Çakir, Ayşegül Çokgez Kuş, Erol Şahin

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Kind of energy that buildings need changes in various types, like heating energy, cooling energy, electrical energy and thermal energy for hot top water. Usually the processes or systems produce thermal energy causes emitting pollutant emissions while they produce heat because of fossil fuels they use. A lower consumption of thermal energy will contribute not only to a reduction in the running costs, but also in the reduction of pollutant emissions that contribute to the greenhouse effect and a lesser dependence of the hospital on the external power supply. Cogeneration or CHP (Combined heat and Power) is the system that produces power and usable heat simultaneously. Combined production of mechanical or electrical and thermal energy using a simple energy source, such as oil, coal, natural or liquefied gas, biomass or the sun; affords remarkable energy savings and frequently makes it possible to operate with greater efficiency when compared to a system producing heat and power separately. Because of the life standard of humanity in new age, energy sources must be continually and best qualified. For this reason the installation of a system for the simultaneous generation of electrical, heating and cooling energy would be one of the best solutions if we want to have qualified energy and reduce investment and operating costs and meet ecological requirements. This study aims to bring out the contributions of cogeneration systems to the environment and sustainability by saving the energy and reducing the emissions.

Keywords: sustainability, cogeneration systems, energy economy, energy saving

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Authors: Snezhana G. Gocheva-Ilieva, Maya P. Stoimenova

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Ambient air pollution with fine particulate matter (PM10) is a systematic permanent problem in many countries around the world. The accumulation of a large number of measurements of both the PM10 concentrations and the accompanying atmospheric factors allow for their statistical modeling to detect dependencies and forecast future pollution. This study applies the classification and regression trees (CART) method for building and analyzing PM10 models. In the empirical study, average daily air data for the city of Pleven, Bulgaria for a period of 5 years are used. Predictors in the models are seven meteorological variables, time variables, as well as lagged PM10 variables and some lagged meteorological variables, delayed by 1 or 2 days with respect to the initial time series, respectively. The degree of influence of the predictors in the models is determined. The selected best CART models are used to forecast future PM10 concentrations for two days ahead after the last date in the modeling procedure and show very accurate results.

Keywords: cross-validation, decision tree, lagged variables, short-term forecasting

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Authors: Aakansha Gupta, Neha Vadnere, Tapasvi Soni, M. Anbarsi

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Protein secondary structure prediction is one of the most important goals pursued by bioinformatics and theoretical chemistry; it is highly important in medicine and biotechnology. Some aspects of protein functions and genome analysis can be predicted by secondary structure prediction. This is used to help annotate sequences, classify proteins, identify domains, and recognize functional motifs. In this paper, we represent protein secondary structure as a mathematical model. To extract and predict the protein secondary structure from the primary structure, we require a set of parameters. Any constants appearing in the model are specified by these parameters, which also provide a mechanism for efficient and accurate use of data. To estimate these model parameters there are many algorithms out of which the most popular one is the EM algorithm or called the Expectation Maximization Algorithm. These model parameters are estimated with the use of protein datasets like RS126 by using the Bayesian Probabilistic method (data set being categorical). This paper can then be extended into comparing the efficiency of EM algorithm to the other algorithms for estimating the model parameters, which will in turn lead to an efficient component for the Protein Secondary Structure Prediction. Further this paper provides a scope to use these parameters for predicting secondary structure of proteins using machine learning techniques like neural networks and fuzzy logic. The ultimate objective will be to obtain greater accuracy better than the previously achieved.

Keywords: model parameters, expectation maximization algorithm, protein secondary structure prediction, bioinformatics

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Authors: S. H. Arnaud Kanga, O. Hili, S. Dabo-Niang

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Spatial prediction is an issue appealing and attracting several fields such as agriculture, environmental sciences, ecology, econometrics, and many others. Although multiple non-parametric prediction methods exist for spatial data, those are based on the conditional expectation. This paper took a different approach by examining a non-parametric spatial predictor of the conditional quantile. The study especially observes the stationary multidimensional spatial process over a rectangular domain. Indeed, the proposed quantile is obtained by inverting the conditional distribution function. Furthermore, the proposed estimator of the conditional distribution function depends on three kernels, where one of them controls the distance between spatial locations, while the other two control the distance between observations. In addition, the almost complete convergence and the convergence in mean order q of the kernel predictor are obtained when the sample considered is alpha-mixing. Such approach of the prediction method gives the advantage of accuracy as it overcomes sensitivity to extreme and outliers values.

Keywords: conditional quantile, kernel, nonparametric, stationary

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Authors: Suzan Arslanturk, Mohammad-Reza Siadat, Theophilus Ogunyemi, Ananias Diokno

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Missing data is a common challenge in statistical analyses of most clinical survey datasets. A variety of methods have been developed to enable analysis of survey data to deal with missing values. Imputation is the most commonly used among the above methods. However, in order to minimize the bias introduced due to imputation, one must choose the right imputation technique and apply it to the correct type of missing data. In this paper, we have identified different types of missing values: missing data due to skip pattern (SPMD), undetermined missing data (UMD), and genuine missing data (GMD) and applied rough set imputation on only the GMD portion of the missing data. We have used rough set imputation to evaluate the effect of such imputation on prediction by generating several simulation datasets based on an existing epidemiological dataset (MESA). To measure how well each dataset lends itself to the prediction model (logistic regression), we have used p-values from the Wald test. To evaluate the accuracy of the prediction, we have considered the width of 95% confidence interval for the probability of incontinence. Both imputed and non-imputed simulation datasets were fit to the prediction model, and they both turned out to be significant (p-value < 0.05). However, the Wald score shows a better fit for the imputed compared to non-imputed datasets (28.7 vs. 23.4). The average confidence interval width was decreased by 10.4% when the imputed dataset was used, meaning higher precision. The results show that using the rough set method for missing data imputation on GMD data improve the predictive capability of the logistic regression. Further studies are required to generalize this conclusion to other clinical survey datasets.

Keywords: rough set, imputation, clinical survey data simulation, genuine missing data, predictive index

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Authors: Vinayaka Gude Divya Sampath

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The research introduces an integrated prediction model to assess the susceptibility of roads in a future flooding event. The model consists of deep learning algorithm for forecasting gauge height data and Flood Inundation Mapper (FIM) for spatial flooding. An optimal architecture for Long short-term memory network (LSTM) was identified for the gauge located on Tangipahoa River at Robert, LA. Dropout was applied to the model to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the predictions. The estimates are then used along with FIM to identify the spatial flooding. Further geoprocessing in ArcGIS provides the susceptibility values for different roads. The model was validated based on the devastating flood of August 2016. The paper discusses the challenges for generalization the methodology for other locations and also for various types of flooding. The developed model can be used by the transportation department and other emergency response organizations for effective disaster management.

Keywords: deep learning, disaster management, flood prediction, urban flooding

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Authors: Harneet Walia, Morteza Zihayat

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Customer acquisition has become one of the critical issues of any business in the 21st century; having a healthy customer base is the essential asset of the bank business. Term deposits act as a major source of cheap funds for the banks to invest and benefit from interest rate arbitrage. To attract customers, the marketing campaigns at most financial institutions consist of multiple outbound telephonic calls with more than one contact to a customer which is a very time-consuming process. Therefore, customized direct marketing has become more critical than ever for attracting new clients. As customer acquisition is becoming more difficult to archive, having an intelligent and redefined list is necessary to sell a product smartly. Our aim of this research is to increase the effectiveness of campaigns by predicting customers who will most likely subscribe to the fixed deposit and suggest the most suitable month to reach out to customers. We design a Time Aware Upsell Prediction Framework (TAUPF) using two different approaches, with an aim to find the best approach and technique to build the prediction model. TAUPF is implemented using Upsell Prediction Approach (UPA) and Clustered Upsell Prediction Approach (CUPA). We also address the data imbalance problem by examining and comparing different methods of sampling (Up-sampling and down-sampling). Our results have shown building such a model is quite feasible and profitable for the financial institutions. The Time Aware Upsell Prediction Framework (TAUPF) can be easily used in any industry such as telecom, automobile, tourism, etc. where the TAUPF (Clustered Upsell Prediction Approach (CUPA) or Upsell Prediction Approach (UPA)) holds valid. In our case, CUPA books more reliable. As proven in our research, one of the most important challenges is to define measures which have enough predictive power as the subscription to a fixed deposit depends on highly ambiguous situations and cannot be easily isolated. While we have shown the practicality of time-aware upsell prediction model where financial institutions can benefit from contacting the customers at the specified month, further research needs to be done to understand the specific time of the day. In addition, a further empirical/pilot study on real live customer needs to be conducted to prove the effectiveness of the model in the real world.

Keywords: customer acquisition, predictive analysis, targeted marketing, time-aware analysis

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Authors: G. R. Khan, Sadia Mahjabin, A. S. Mollah, M. R. Mawla

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Atmospheric dispersion modeling is significant for any nuclear facilities in the country to predict the impact of radiological doses on environment as well as human health. That is why to ensure safety of workers and population at plant site; Atmospheric dispersion modeling and radiation dose calculations were carried out for a hypothetical accidental release of airborne radionuclide from the 3 MW TRIGA research reactor of Savar, Bangladesh. It is designed with reactor core which consists of 100 fuel elements(1.82245 cm in diameter and 38.1 cm in length), arranged in an annular corefor steady-state and square wave power level of 3 MW (thermal) and for pulsing with maximum power level of 860MWth.The fuel is in the form of a uniform mixture of 20% uranium and 80% zirconium hydride. Total effective doses (TEDs) to the public at various downwind distances were evaluated with a health physics computer code “HotSpot” developed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, USA. The doses were estimated at different Pasquill stability classes (categories A-F) with site-specific averaged meteorological conditions. The meteorological data, such as, average wind speed, frequency distribution of wind direction, etc. have also been analyzed based on the data collected near the reactor site. The results of effective doses obtained remain within the recommended maximum effective dose.

Keywords: accidental release, dispersion modeling, total effective dose, TRIGA

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Authors: Shivahari Revathi Venkateswaran

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Segmenting customers plays a significant role in churn prediction. It helps the marketing team with proactive and reactive customer retention. For the reactive retention, the retention team reaches out to customers who already showed intent to disconnect by giving some special offers. When coming to proactive retention, the marketing team uses churn prediction model, which ranks each customer from rank 1 to 100, where 1 being more risk to churn/disconnect (high ranks have high propensity to churn). The churn prediction model is built by using XGBoost model. However, with the churn rank, the marketing team can only reach out to the customers based on their individual ranks. To profile different groups of customers and to frame different marketing strategies for targeted groups of customers are not possible with the churn ranks. For this, the customers must be grouped in different segments based on their profiles, like demographics and other non-controllable attributes. This helps the marketing team to frame different offer groups for the targeted audience and prevent them from disconnecting (proactive retention). For segmentation, machine learning approaches like k-mean clustering will not form unique customer segments that have customers with same attributes. This paper finds an alternate approach to find all the combination of unique segments that can be formed from the user attributes and then finds the segments who have uplift (churn rate higher than the baseline churn rate). For this, search algorithms like fast search and recursive search are used. Further, for each segment, all customers can be targeted using individual churn ranks from the churn prediction model. Finally, a UI (User Interface) is developed for the marketing team to interactively search for the meaningful segments that are formed and target the right set of audience for future marketing campaigns and prevent them from disconnecting.

Keywords: churn prediction modeling, XGBoost model, uplift segments, proactive marketing, search algorithms, retention, k-mean clustering

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Authors: G. P. Gupta, B. Kumar, S. Singh, U. C. Kulshrestha

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Very high loadings of atmospheric dust in the Indian region contribute to remarkably higher levels of particulate matter. During dry weather conditions which prevail most of the year, dustfall is deposited onto the foliar surfaces affecting their morphology, stomata and biochemical constituents. This study reports chemical characteristics of dustfall, its effect on foliar morphology and biochemical constituents of two medicinal plants i.e. Morus (Morus alba) and Arjun (Terminalia arjuna) in the urban environment of National Capital Region (NCR) of Delhi at two sites i.e. Jawaharlal Nehru University (residential) and Sahibabad (industrial). Atmospheric dust was characterized for major anions (F-, Cl-, NO3-, SO4--) and cations (Na+, NH4+, K+, Mg++, Ca++) along with the biochemical parameters Chl a, Chl b, total chlorophyll, carotenoid, total soluble sugar, relative water content (RWC), pH, and ascorbic acid. The results showed that the concentrations of major ions in dustfall were higher at the industrial site as compared to the residential site due to the higher level of anthropogenic activities. Both the plant species grown at industrial site had significantly lower values of chlorophyll ‘a’, chlorophyll ‘b’, total chlorophyll, carotenoid but relatively higher values of total soluble sugar and ascorbic acid indicating stressful conditions due to industrial and vehicular emissions.

Keywords: dustfall, urban environment, biochemical constituents, atmospheric dust

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Authors: D. Tassalit, N. Chekir, O. Benhabiles, N. A. Laoufi, F. Bentahar

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In the setting of the waters purification, some molecules appear recalcitrant to the traditional treatments. The exploitation of the properties of some catalysts permits to amplify the oxidization performances with ultraviolet radiance and to remove this pollution by a non biological way. This study was conducted to investigate the effect of a photocatalysis oxidation system for organic pollutants treatment using a new reactor design and ZnO/TiO2 as a catalyst under UV light. Oxidative degradation of tylosin by hydroxyl radicals (OH°) was studied in aqueous medium using suspended forms of ZnO and TiO2. The results improve that the treatment was affected by many factors such as flow-rate of solution, initial pollutant concentration and catalyst concentration. The rate equation for the tylosin degradation followed first order kinetics and the rate-constants were determined. The reaction rate fitted well with Langmuir–Hinshelwood model and the removed ratio of tylosin was 97 % in less than 60 minutes. To determine the optimum catalyst loading, a series of experiments were carried out by varying the amount of catalyst from 0.05 to 0.5 g/L. The results demonstrate that the rate of photodegradation is optimum with catalyst loading of 0.1 g/L, reaction flow rate of 3.79 mL/s and solution natural pH. The rate was found to increase with the decrease in tylosin concentration from 30 to 5 mg/L. Therefore, this simple photoreactor design for the removal of organic pollutants has the potential to be used in wastewater treatment.

Keywords: advanced oxidation, photocatalysis, TiO2, ZnO, UV light, pharmaceuticals pollutants, Spiramycin, tylosin, wastewater treatment

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Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

Abstract:

Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During the year 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two ANN-LSTM price prediction models, using Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022, and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper, depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-Month prediction model is better than the 1-Month prediction model, but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.

Keywords: copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting

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Authors: Shin Woo Kim, Eui Ju Lee

Abstract:

The recent development of biofuel production technology facilitates the use of bioethanol and biodiesel on automobile. Bioethanol, especially, can be used as a fuel for gasoline vehicles because the addition of ethanol has been known to increase octane number and reduce soot emissions. However, the wide application of biofuel has been still limited because of lack of detailed combustion properties such as auto-ignition temperature and pollutant emissions such as NOx and soot, which has been concerned mainly on the vehicle fire safety and environmental safety. In this study, the combustion characteristics of gasoline/ethanol fuel were investigated both numerically and experimentally. For auto-ignition temperature and NOx emission, the numerical simulation was performed on the well-stirred reactor (WSR) to simulate the homogeneous gasoline engine and to clarify the effect of ethanol addition in the gasoline fuel. Also, the response surface method (RSM) was introduced as a design of experiment (DOE), which enables the various combustion properties to be predicted and optimized systematically with respect to three independent variables, i.e., ethanol mole fraction, equivalence ratio and residence time. The results of stoichiometric gasoline surrogate show that the auto-ignition temperature increases but NOx yields decrease with increasing ethanol mole fraction. This implies that the bioethanol added gasoline is an eco-friendly fuel on engine running condition. However, unburned hydrocarbon is increased dramatically with increasing ethanol content, which results from the incomplete combustion and hence needs to adjust combustion itself rather than an after-treatment system. RSM results analyzed with three independent variables predict the auto-ignition temperature accurately. However, NOx emission had a big difference between the calculated values and the predicted values using conventional RSM because NOx emission varies very steeply and hence the obtained second order polynomial cannot follow the rates. To relax the increasing rate of dependent variable, NOx emission is taken as common logarithms and worked again with RSM. NOx emission predicted through logarithm transformation is in a fairly good agreement with the experimental results. For more tangible understanding of gasoline/ethanol fuel on pollutant emissions, experimental measurements of combustion products were performed in gasoline/ethanol pool fires, which is widely used as a fire source of laboratory scale experiments. Three measurement methods were introduced to clarify the pollutant emissions, i.e., various gas concentrations including NOx, gravimetric soot filter sampling for elements analysis and pyrolysis, thermophoretic soot sampling with transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Soot yield by gravimetric sampling was decreased dramatically as ethanol was added, but NOx emission was almost comparable regardless of ethanol mole fraction. The morphology of the soot particle was investigated to address the degree of soot maturing. The incipient soot such as a liquid like PAHs was observed clearly on the soot of higher ethanol containing gasoline, and the soot might be matured under the undiluted gasoline fuel.

Keywords: gasoline/ethanol fuel, NOx, pool fire, soot, well-stirred reactor (WSR)

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Authors: Mahdi Alshamasin, Riad Al-Kasasbeh, Nikolay Korenevskiy

Abstract:

We apply mathematical models for the interaction of the internal and biologically active points of meridian structures. Amongst the diseases for which reflex diagnostics are effective are those of the stomach disease. It is shown that use of fuzzy logic decision-making yields good results for the prediction and early diagnosis of gastrointestinal tract diseases, depending on the reaction energy of biologically active points (acupuncture points). It is shown that good results for the prediction and early diagnosis of diseases from the reaction energy of biologically active points (acupuncture points) are obtained by using fuzzy logic decision-making.

Keywords: acupuncture points, fuzzy logic, diagnostically important points (DIP), confidence factors, membership functions, stomach diseases

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Authors: Reema Tiwari, U. C. Kulshrestha

Abstract:

As a key regulator of atmospheric oxidative capacity and secondary aerosol formations, the signatures of reactive nitrogen (Nr) emissions are becoming increasingly evident in the cascade of air pollution, acidification, and eutrophication of the ecosystem. However, their accurate estimates in N budget remains limited by the photochemical conversion processes where occurrence of differential atmospheric residence time of gaseous (NOₓ, HNO₃, NH₃) and particulate (NO₃⁻, NH₄⁺) Nr species becomes imperative to their spatio temporal evolution on a synoptic scale. The present study attempts to quantify such interactions under tropical conditions when low anticyclonic winds become favorable to the advections from west during winters. For this purpose, a diurnal sampling was conducted using low volume sampler assembly where ambient concentrations of Nr trace gases along with their ionic fractions in the aerosol samples were determined with UV-spectrophotometer and ion chromatography respectively. The results showed a spatial gradient of the gaseous precursors with a much pronounced inter site variability (p < 0.05) than their particulate fractions. Such observations were confirmed for their limited photochemical conversions where less than 1 ratios of day and night measurements (D/N) for the different Nr fractions suggested an influence of boundary layer dynamics at the background site. These phase conversion processes were further corroborated with the molar ratios of NOₓ/NOᵧ and NH₃/NHₓ where incomplete titrations of NOₓ and NH₃ emissions were observed irrespective of their diurnal phases along the sampling transect. Their calculations with equilibrium based approaches for an NH₃-HNO₃-NH₄NO₃ system, on the other hand, were characterized by delays in equilibrium attainment where plots of their below deliquescence Kₘ and Kₚ values with 1000/T confirmed the role of lower temperature ranges in NH₄NO₃ aerosol formation. These results would help us in not only resolving the changing atmospheric inputs of reduced (NH₃, NH₄⁺) and oxidized (NOₓ, HNO₃, NO₃⁻) Nr estimates but also in understanding the dependence of Nr mixing ratios on their local meteorological conditions.

Keywords: diurnal ratios, gas-aerosol interactions, spatial gradient, thermodynamic equilibrium

Procedia PDF Downloads 111