Search results for: surrogate models

Authors: Selvakumar Ulaganathan, Ivo Couckuyt, Francesco Ferranti, Tom Dhaene, Eric Laermans

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Variable-fidelity surrogate modelling offers an efficient way to approximate function data available in multiple degrees of accuracy each with varying computational cost. In this paper, a Kriging-based variable-fidelity surrogate modelling approach is introduced to approximate such deterministic data. Initially, individual Kriging surrogate models, which are enhanced with gradient data of different degrees of accuracy, are constructed. Then these Gradient enhanced Kriging surrogate models are strategically coupled using a recursive CoKriging formulation to provide an accurate surrogate model for the highest fidelity data. While, intuitively, gradient data is useful to enhance the accuracy of surrogate models, the primary motivation behind this work is to investigate if it is also worthwhile incorporating gradient data of varying degrees of accuracy.

Keywords: Kriging, CoKriging, Surrogate modelling, Variable- fidelity modelling, Gradients

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Authors: Xiongxiong You, Zhanwen Niu

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Choosing an appropriate surrogate model plays an important role in surrogates-assisted evolutionary algorithms (SAEAs) since there are many types and different kernel functions in the surrogate model. In this paper, an adaptive selection of the best suitable surrogate model method is proposed to solve different kinds of expensive optimization problems. Firstly, according to the prediction residual error sum of square (PRESS) and different model selection strategies, the excellent individual surrogate models are integrated into multiple ensemble models in each generation. Then, based on the minimum root of mean square error (RMSE), the best suitable surrogate model is selected dynamically. Secondly, two methods with dynamic number of models and selection strategies are designed, which are used to show the influence of the number of individual models and selection strategy. Finally, some compared studies are made to deal with several commonly used benchmark problems, as well as a rotor system optimization problem. The results demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of the proposed method.

Keywords: adaptive selection, expensive optimization, rotor system, surrogates assisted evolutionary algorithms

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Authors: Susmita Panda, Arnab Banerjee, Ajinkya Baxy, Bappaditya Manna

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The design of short to medium-span high-speed bridges in critical locations is an essential aspect of vehicle-bridge interaction. Due to dynamic interaction between moving load and bridge, mathematical models or finite element modeling computations become time-consuming. Thus, to reduce the computational effort, a universal approximator using an artificial neural network (ANN) has been used to evaluate the dynamic response of the bridge. The data set generation and training of surrogate models have been conducted over the results obtained from mathematical modeling. Further, the robustness of the surrogate model has been investigated, which showed an error percentage of less than 10% with conventional methods. Additionally, the dependency of the dynamic response of the bridge on various load and bridge parameters has been highlighted through a parametric study.

Keywords: artificial neural network, mode superposition method, moving load analysis, surrogate models

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Authors: Hamed K. Esfahani, Bithin Datta

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Transport of reactive chemical contaminant species in groundwater aquifers is a complex and highly non-linear physical and geochemical process especially for real life scenarios. Simulating this transport process involves solving complex nonlinear equations and generally requires huge computational time for a given aquifer study area. Development of optimal remediation strategies in aquifers may require repeated solution of such complex numerical simulation models. To overcome this computational limitation and improve the computational feasibility of large number of repeated simulations, Genetic Programming based trained surrogate models are developed to approximately simulate such complex transport processes. Transport process of acid mine drainage, a hazardous pollutant is first simulated using a numerical simulated model: HYDROGEOCHEM 5.0 for a contaminated aquifer in a historic mine site. Simulation model solution results for an illustrative contaminated aquifer site is then approximated by training and testing a Genetic Programming (GP) based surrogate model. Performance evaluation of the ensemble GP models as surrogate models for the reactive species transport in groundwater demonstrates the feasibility of its use and the associated computational advantages. The results show the efficiency and feasibility of using ensemble GP surrogate models as approximate simulators of complex hydrogeologic and geochemical processes in a contaminated groundwater aquifer incorporating uncertainties in historic mine site.

Keywords: geochemical transport simulation, acid mine drainage, surrogate models, ensemble genetic programming, contaminated aquifers, mine sites

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Authors: Jian Li

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The uncertainty quantification and inversion problems of subsurface oil-water phase flow usually require extensive repeated forward calculations for new runs with changed conditions. To reduce the computational time, various forms of surrogate models have been built. Related research shows that deep learning has emerged as an effective surrogate model, while most surrogate models with deep learning are purely data-driven, which always leads to poor robustness and abnormal results. To guarantee the model more consistent with the physical laws, a coupled theory-guided convolutional neural network (TgCNN) based surrogate model is built to facilitate computation efficiency under the premise of satisfactory accuracy. The model is a convolutional neural network based on multi-well reservoir simulation. The core notion of this proposed method is to bridge two separate blocks on top of an overall network. They underlie the TgCNN model in a coupled form, which reflects the coupling nature of pressure and water saturation in the two-phase flow equation. The model is driven by not only labeled data but also scientific theories, including governing equations, stochastic parameterization, boundary, and initial conditions, well conditions, and expert knowledge. The results show that the TgCNN-based surrogate model exhibits satisfactory accuracy and efficiency in subsurface oil-water phase flow under multi-well conditions.

Keywords: coupled theory-guided convolutional neural network, multi-well conditions, surrogate model, subsurface oil-water phase

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Authors: Malo Pocheau-Lesteven, Olivier Le Maître

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Engineering and optimisation of complex systems is often achieved through multi-disciplinary analysis of the system, where each subsystem is modeled and interacts with other subsystems to model the complete system. The coherence of the output of the different sub-systems is achieved through the use of compatibility constraints, which enforce the coupling between the different subsystems. Due to the complexity of some sub-systems and the computational cost of evaluating their respective models, it is often necessary to build surrogate models of these subsystems to allow repeated evaluation these subsystems at a relatively low computational cost. In this paper, gaussian processes are used, as their probabilistic nature is leveraged to evaluate the likelihood of satisfying the compatibility constraints. This paper presents infilling strategies to build accurate surrogate models of the subsystems in areas where they are likely to meet the compatibility constraint. It is shown that these infilling strategies can reduce the computational cost of building surrogate models for a given level of accuracy. An application of these methods to velocity prediction programs used in offshore racing naval architecture further demonstrates these method's applicability in a real engineering context. Also, some examples of the application of uncertainty quantification to field of naval architecture are presented.

Keywords: infilling strategy, gaussian process, multi disciplinary analysis, velocity prediction program

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Authors: Laura Micheli, Majd Hijazi, Mahmoud Faytarouni

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The damage reported by oil and gas industrial facilities revealed the utmost vulnerability of steel liquid storage tanks to seismic events. The failure of steel storage tanks may yield devastating and long-lasting consequences on built and natural environments, including the release of hazardous substances, uncontrolled fires, and soil contamination with hazardous materials. It is, therefore, fundamental to reliably predict the damage that steel liquid storage tanks will likely experience under future seismic hazard events. The seismic performance of steel liquid storage tanks is usually assessed using vulnerability curves obtained from the numerical simulation of a tank under different hazard scenarios. However, the computational demand of high-fidelity numerical simulation models, such as finite element models, makes the vulnerability assessment of liquid storage tanks time-consuming and often impractical. As a solution, this paper presents a surrogate model-based strategy for predicting seismic-induced damage in steel liquid storage tanks. In the proposed strategy, the surrogate model is leveraged to reduce the computational demand of time-consuming numerical simulations. To create the data set for training the surrogate model, field damage data from past earthquakes reconnaissance surveys and reports are collected. Features representative of steel liquid storage tank characteristics (e.g., diameter, height, liquid level, yielding stress) and seismic excitation parameters (e.g., peak ground acceleration, magnitude) are extracted from the field damage data. The collected data are then utilized to train a surrogate model that maps the relationship between tank characteristics, seismic hazard parameters, and seismic-induced damage via a data-driven surrogate model. Different types of surrogate algorithms, including naïve Bayes, k-nearest neighbors, decision tree, and random forest, are investigated, and results in terms of accuracy are reported. The model that yields the most accurate predictions is employed to predict future damage as a function of tank characteristics and seismic hazard intensity level. Results show that the proposed approach can be used to estimate the extent of damage in steel liquid storage tanks, where the use of data-driven surrogates represents a viable alternative to computationally expensive numerical simulation models.

Keywords: damage prediction , data-driven model, seismic performance, steel liquid storage tanks, surrogate model

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Authors: M. R. Ghasemi, R. Ghiasi, H. Varaee

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Surrogate model has received increasing attention for use in detecting damage of structures based on vibration modal parameters. However, uncertainties existing in the measured vibration data may lead to false or unreliable output result from such model. In this study, an efficient approach based on Monte Carlo simulation is proposed to take into account the effect of uncertainties in developing a surrogate model. The probability of damage existence (PDE) is calculated based on the probability density function of the existence of undamaged and damaged states. The kriging technique allows one to genuinely quantify the surrogate error, therefore it is chosen as metamodeling technique. Enhanced version of ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM) algorithm is used as main algorithm for model updating. The developed approach is applied to detect simulated damage in numerical models of 72-bar space truss and 120-bar dome truss. The simulation results show the proposed method can perform well in probability-based damage detection of structures with less computational effort compared to direct finite element model.

Keywords: probability-based damage detection (PBDD), Kriging, surrogate modeling, uncertainty quantification, artificial intelligence, enhanced ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM)

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Authors: Shan-Hong Ying, Ying-Fang Wang

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A surrogate approach was deployed for assessing exposures of multiple chemicals at the selected working area of coating processes and applied to assess the exposure concentration of similar exposed groups using the same chemicals but different formula ratios. For the selected area, 6 to 12 portable photoionization detector (PID) were placed uniformly in its workplace to measure its total VOCs concentrations (CT-VOCs) for 6 randomly selected workshifts. Simultaneously, one sampling strain was placed beside one of these portable PIDs, and the collected air sample was analyzed for individual concentration (CVOCi) of 5 VOCs (xylene, butanone, toluene, butyl acetate, and dimethylformamide). Predictive models were established by relating the CT-VOCs to CVOCi of each individual compound via simple regression analysis. The established predictive models were employed to predict each CVOCi based on the measured CT-VOC for each the similar working area using the same portable PID. Results show that predictive models obtained from simple linear regression analyses were found with an R2 = 0.83~0.99 indicating that CT-VOCs were adequate for predicting CVOCi. In order to verify the validity of the exposure prediction model, the sampling analysis of the above chemical substances was further carried out and the correlation between the measured value (Cm) and the predicted value (Cp) was analyzed. It was found that there is a good correction between the predicted value and measured value of each measured chemical substance (R2=0.83~0.98). Therefore, the surrogate approach could be assessed the exposure concentration of similar exposed groups using the same chemicals but different formula ratios. However, it is recommended to establish the prediction model between the chemical substances belonging to each coater and the direct-reading PID, which is more representative of reality exposure situation and more accurately to estimate the long-term exposure concentration of operators.

Keywords: exposure assessment, exposure prediction model, surrogate approach, TVOC

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Authors: Hao Yan, Xiaobing Zhang

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The working mechanism of miniaturized solid rocket motors (SRMs) is not yet fully understood. It is imperative to explore its unique features. However, there are many disadvantages to using common multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) in predicting the parameters of the miniaturized SRM during its conceptual design phase. Initially, the design variables and objectives are constrained in a lumped parameter model (LPM) of this SRM, which leads to local optima in MOEAs. In addition, MOEAs require a large number of calculations due to their population strategy. Although the calculation time for simulating an LPM just once is usually less than that of a CFD simulation, the number of function evaluations (NFEs) is usually large in MOEAs, which makes the total time cost unacceptably long. Moreover, the accuracy of the LPM is relatively low compared to that of a CFD model due to its assumptions. CFD simulations or experiments are required for comparison and verification of the optimal results obtained by MOEAs with an LPM. The conceptual design phase based on MOEAs is a lengthy process, and its results are not precise enough due to the above shortcomings. An artificial neural network (ANN) based parameter prediction is proposed as a way to reduce time costs and improve prediction accuracy. In this method, an ANN is used to build a surrogate model that is trained with a 3D numerical simulation. In design, the original LPM is replaced by a surrogate model. Each case uses the same MOEAs, in which the calculation time of the two models is compared, and their optimization results are compared with 3D simulation results. Using the surrogate model for the parameter prediction process of the miniaturized SRMs results in a significant increase in computational efficiency and an improvement in prediction accuracy. Thus, the ANN-based surrogate model does provide faster and more accurate parameter prediction for an initial design scheme. Moreover, even when the MOEAs converge to local optima, the time cost of the ANN-based surrogate model is much lower than that of the simplified physical model LPM. This means that designers can save a lot of time during code debugging and parameter tuning in a complex design process. Designers can reduce repeated calculation costs and obtain accurate optimal solutions by combining an ANN-based surrogate model with MOEAs.

Keywords: artificial neural network, solid rocket motor, multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, surrogate model

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Authors: Yingyi Luo

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Cross-border surrogacy is seen by many as a market in which women are bought and sold commodities at risk of trafficking. A surrogate can be framed as either a fully acknowledged subject, with whom intended parents engage in cross-border surrogacy—or as a tool utilized by intended parents and surrogacy facilitators in the furtherance of their own objectives. In order to identify which frame prevails, this paper applies subjectivity theory to an empirical study of cross-border surrogacy facilitated by facilitators in Australia analysing interviews with surrogate agents, counsellors and lawyers, and observations at trade show. The aim of the paper is to advance understanding of the dynamics of the relationship between intended parents, surrogates, and surrogacy facilitators by collecting new data and applying unique framework. As dominant players, surrogacy facilitators have a significant impact on determining the nature of cross-border surrogacy. However, little is known concerning the manner in which facilitators influence the inter-subjectivity between surrogate mothers and intended parents. Thus, this paper intends to identify how facilitators depict surrogate mothers, the degree to which their perspectives bear upon both the subjectivity of the surrogate mother and the relationship of intended parents with surrogate mothers. For the purpose of introducing and developing this framework in the context of cross-border surrogacy, this paper borrows from the work of theorists not often mentioned in bioethics, including Jacques Lacan, Marco Cavallaro, Michel Foucault, and others. It also applies the concept of 'the gaze' along with the dynamic of 'self' and 'other' to the cross-border surrogacy arrangement. Applying the concept of the gaze can provide a new way to interpret the power dynamic that plays out among surrogacy facilitators, intended parents, and surrogates within the commercial surrogacy arrangement and how the subjectivity is produced through the power. Viewing the relationships between the players in cross-border surrogacy through the lens of gaze theory, this paper finds that, in cross-border surrogacy, due to the structural power imbalance, affluent intended parents and surrogacy facilitators are possessors of the gaze, while surrogate mothers are under the thrall of the gaze. Specifically, facilitators frame surrogate mothers' reproductive abilities as commodities that intended parents can purchase to fulfil their urgent need to have children and experience full subjectivity, and they take a cut of the money that paid by intended parents. Therefore, commodification of the body results in degrading a surrogate mother (the object), reifying her as no more than a walking womb (the other), a process which is highly detrimental to the self of surrogate mothers. This relationship, formalized through contractual means, allows intended parents and facilitators to take advantage of surrogate mothers in the furtherance of their own objectives. This argument is enriched by new data from interviews and observations that provide nuance to this understanding of inter-subjectivity.

Keywords: cross-border surrogacy, facilitators, self, surrogate mothers

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Authors: Varsha Gupta, Priya Datta, Gursimran Mohi, Jagdish Chander

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Fluoroquinolones form the mainstay of therapy for the treatment of infections due to Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica. There is a complex interplay between several resistance mechanisms for quinolones and various fluoroquinolones discs, giving varying results, making detection and interpretation of fluoroquinolone resistance difficult. For detection of fluoroquinolone resistance in Salmonella ssp., we compared the use of pefloxacin and nalidixic acid discs as surrogate marker. Using MIC for ciprofloxacin as the gold standard, 43.5% of strains showed MIC as ≥1 μg/ml and were thus resistant to fluoroquinoloes. Based on the performance of nalidixic acid and pefloxacin discs as surrogate marker for ciprofloxacin resistance, both the discs could correctly detect all the resistant phenotypes; however, use of nalidixic acid disc showed false resistance in the majority of the sensitive phenotypes. We have also tested newer antimicrobial agents like cefixime, imipenem, tigecycline and azithromycin against Salmonella spp. Moreover, there was a comeback of susceptibility to older antimicrobials like ampicillin, chloramphenicol, and cotrimoxazole. We can also use cefixime, imipenem, tigecycline and azithromycin in the treatment of multidrug resistant S. typhi due to their high susceptibility.

Keywords: salmonella, pefloxacin, surrogate marker, chloramphenicol

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Authors: Muhammad Zaman Shakir, Mingfa Yao, Zohaib Iqbal

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This study proposed four Jet fuel surrogate (S1, S2 S3, and 4) with careful selection of seven large hydrocarbon fuel components, ranging from C₉-C₁₆ of higher molecular weight and higher boiling point, adapting the standard molecular distribution size of the actual jet fuel. The surrogate was composed of seven components, including n-propyl cyclohexane (C₉H₁₈), n- propylbenzene (C₉H₁₂), n-undecane (C₁₁H₂₄), n- dodecane (C₁₂H₂₆), n-tetradecane (C₁₄H₃₀), n-hexadecane (C₁₆H₃₄) and iso-cetane (iC₁₆H₃₄). The skeletal jet fuel surrogate reaction mechanism was developed by two approaches, firstly based on a decoupling methodology by describing the C₄ -C₁₆ skeletal mechanism for the oxidation of heavy hydrocarbons and a detailed H₂ /CO/C₁ mechanism for prediction of oxidation of small hydrocarbons. The combined skeletal jet fuel surrogate mechanism was compressed into 128 species, and 355 reactions and thereby can be used in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation. The extensive validation was performed for individual single-component including ignition delay time, species concentrations profile and laminar flame speed based on various fundamental experiments under wide operating conditions, and for their blended mixture, among all the surrogate, S1 has been extensively validated against the experimental data in a shock tube, rapid compression machine, jet-stirred reactor, counterflow flame, and premixed laminar flame over wide ranges of temperature (700-1700 K), pressure (8-50 atm), and equivalence ratio (0.5-2.0) to capture the properties target fuel Jet-A, while the rest of three surrogate S2, S3 and S4 has been validated for Shock Tube ignition delay time only to capture the ignition characteristic of target fuel S-8 & GTL, IPK and RP-3 respectively. Based on the newly proposed HyChem model, another four surrogate with similar components and composition, was developed and parallel validations data was used as followed for previously developed surrogate but at high-temperature condition only. After testing the mechanism prediction performance of surrogates developed by the decoupling methodology, the comparison was done with the results of surrogates developed by the HyChem model. It was observed that all of four proposed surrogates in this study showed good agreement with the experimental measurements and the study comes to this conclusion that like the decoupling methodology HyChem model also has a great potential for the development of oxidation mechanism for heavy alkanes because of applicability, simplicity, and compactness.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, decoupling methodology Hychem, jet fuel, surrogate, skeletal mechanism

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Authors: Bekir O. Bartin, Kaan Ozbay, Sandeep Mudigonda, Hong Yang

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The use of microscopic traffic simulation in evaluating the operational and safety conditions at toll plazas is demonstrated. Two toll plazas in New Jersey are selected as case studies and were developed and validated in Paramics traffic simulation software. In order to simulate drivers’ lane selection behavior in Paramics, a utility-based lane selection approach is implemented in Paramics Application Programming Interface (API). For each vehicle approaching the toll plaza, a utility value is assigned to each toll lane by taking into account the factors that are likely to impact drivers’ lane selection behavior, such as approach lane, exit lane and queue lengths. The results demonstrate that similar operational conditions, such as lane-by-lane toll plaza traffic volume can be attained using this approach. In addition, assessment of safety at toll plazas is conducted via a surrogate safety measure. In particular, the crash index (CI), an improved surrogate measure of time-to-collision (TTC), which reflects the severity of a crash is used in the simulation analyses. The results indicate that the spatial and temporal frequency of observed crashes can be simulated using the proposed methodology. Further analyses can be conducted to evaluate and compare various different operational decisions and safety measures using microscopic simulation models.

Keywords: microscopic simulation, toll plaza, surrogate safety, application programming interface

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Authors: Esther Chiramal, Kelvin Soh Boon Kai

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Explainable AI is a strong strategy implemented to understand complex black-box model predictions in a human-interpretable language. It provides the evidence required to execute the use of trustworthy and reliable AI systems. On the other hand, however, it also opens the door to locating possible vulnerabilities in an AI model. Traditional adversarial text attack uses word substitution, data augmentation techniques, and gradient-based attacks on powerful pre-trained Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) variants to generate adversarial sentences. These attacks are generally white-box in nature and not practical as they can be easily detected by humans e.g., Changing the word from “Poor” to “Rich”. We proposed a simple yet effective Grey-box cum Black-box approach that does not require the knowledge of the model while using a set of surrogate Transformer/BERT models to perform the attack using Explainable AI techniques. As Transformers are the current state-of-the-art models for almost all Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks, an attack generated from BERT1 is transferable to BERT2. This transferability is made possible due to the attention mechanism in the transformer that allows the model to capture long-range dependencies in a sequence. Using the power of BERT generalisation via attention, we attempt to exploit how transformers learn by attacking a few surrogate transformer variants which are all based on a different architecture. We demonstrate that this approach is highly effective to generate semantically good sentences by changing as little as one word that is not detectable by humans while still fooling other BERT models.

Keywords: BERT, explainable AI, Grey-box text attack, transformer

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Authors: Sabyasachi Biswas, Indrajit Ghosh

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The random and heterogeneous behavior of vehicles in India puts up a greater challenge for researchers. Stop-and-go modeling at signalized intersections under heterogeneous traffic conditions has remained one of the most sought-after fields. Vehicles are often caught up in the dilemma zone and are unable to take quick decisions whether to stop or cross the intersection. This hampers the traffic movement and may lead to accidents. The purpose of this work is to develop a stop and go prediction model that depicts the drivers’ decision during the yellow time at signalised intersections. To accomplish this, certain traffic parameters were taken into account to develop surrogate model. This research investigated the Stop and Go behavior of the drivers by collecting data from 4-signalized intersections located in two major Indian cities. Model was developed to predict the drivers’ decision making during the yellow phase of the traffic signal. The parameters used for modeling included distance to stop line, time to stop line, speed, and length of the vehicle. A Kriging base surrogate model has been developed to investigate the drivers’ decision-making behavior in amber phase. It is observed that the proposed approach yields a highly accurate result (97.4 percent) by Gaussian function. It was observed that the accuracy for the crossing probability was 95.45, 90.9 and 86.36.11 percent respectively as predicted by the Kriging models with Gaussian, Exponential and Linear functions.

Keywords: decision-making decision, dilemma zone, surrogate model, Kriging

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Authors: Neha Tiwari

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Rights are prerequisite for individuals to pursue their aims and enrich themselves. Laski has said rights are, ‘conditions of social life without which no man can seek himself at his best.’ However with superior technology, rights of many individuals are at stake as well. One such sufferer is the babies born out of the practice of commercial surrogacy. Commercial surrogacy has emerged as the most viable option for the childless couples. The practice has garnered lot of debate in both academia and media. Some argue for a complete ban and some for strict rules and regulation. Most of the time the debate is regarding the rights of the surrogate, something which we cannot ignore. Equally important are the rights of the children born out of such arrangements. However, not much attention is being paid to them. Recently, a controversy emerged when a surrogate gave birth to twins. One of the babies, Gammy born with down syndrome was left behind by the couple. Gammy could die because his poor Thai surrogate mother may not be able to pay for his treatment. Even if he survives, he will never know his twin sister as her identity would never be disclosed. This is just one of many such cases where the future of such babies is being played with. If the rights of these children are not taken care of many of them will have to bear the brunt of society's ignorance and perhaps live with a scar which won't heal in their lifetime.

Keywords: babies, commercial surrogacy, rights, technology

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Authors: Jiaqi Dong, Qing-Hua Qin, Yi Xiao

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Some of the most fundamental challenges of elastic metamaterials (EMMs) optimization can be attributed to the high consumption of computational power resulted from finite element analysis (FEA) simulations that render the optimization process inefficient. Furthermore, due to the inherent mesh dependence of FEA, minuscule geometry features, which often emerge during the later stages of optimization, induce very fine elements, resulting in enormously high time consumption, particularly when repetitive solutions are needed for computing the objective function. In this study, a surrogate modelling algorithm is developed to reduce computational time in structural optimization of EMMs. The surrogate model is constructed based on a multilayer feedforward artificial neural network (ANN) architecture, trained with prepopulated eigenfrequency data prepopulated from FEA simulation and optimized through regime selection with genetic algorithm (GA) to improve its accuracy in predicting the location and width of the primary elastic band gap. With the optimized ANN surrogate at the core, a Nelder-Mead (NM) algorithm is established and its performance inspected in comparison to the FEA solution. The ANNNM model shows remarkable accuracy in predicting the band gap width and a reduction of time consumption by 47%.

Keywords: artificial neural network, machine learning, mechanical metamaterials, Nelder-Mead optimization

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Authors: Yingyi Luo

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Cross-border commercial surrogacy, where Australians travel overseas to access reproduction through a surrogate mother, is an increasing phenomenon. This paper focuses on the role of Australian surrogacy facilitators, including lawyers, non-for-profit agents, fertility counselors, who act as intermediaries managing cross-border surrogacy arrangements in Australia. It explores the extent to which surrogacy facilitators are concerned with the human rights of children born through cross-border surrogacy, surrogate mothers in developing countries, and intended parents. Commercial surrogacy is a matter that is often cast in the language of human rights. This paper will contribute to an in-depth understanding of the dynamics between intended parents, surrogates, and surrogacy facilitators by adopting a human rights framework to inform data analysis regarding the role of facilitators. The purpose of this research is to inform debate and discussion on law reform related to surrogacy. This paper presented here centers on interviews with surrogacy facilitators in Australia and non-participant observations in Australia to generate thick, empirical data about the fertility industry. The data showed that the process of facilitating surrogacy arrangements had prompted facilitators to form a view on human rights as they applied to their works. Although facilitators claimed that the right of intended parents, surrogate mothers, and children were all taken into consideration, the researcher observed that the commercial surrogacy contracts described by these facilitators favored the interests of intended parents with the baby acting as their unique selling point. The interests and needs of surrogate mothers were not prioritized in the views or actions of facilitators. The result was a commercial transaction that entailed the purchase, through cross-border surrogacy, of a child, as a commodity, by relatively affluent intended parents from disadvantaged surrogate mothers through unfair contracts.

Keywords: cross-border surrogacy, facilitators, human rights, surrogacy

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Authors: Diriba Dereje

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Background: Cardiac and renal disease are the most prevalent chronic non-communicable diseases (CNCD) affecting the community in a significant manner. The best and recommended method in halting CNCD is by working on prevention as early as possible. This is only possible if early surrogate markers are identified. As part of the stated solution, this study will identify an association between microalbuminuria (an early surrogate marker of renal and cardiac disease) and lung function test among adult in the community. Objective: The main aim of this study was to assess an association between microalbuminuria (an early surrogate marker of renal and cardiac disease) and lung function test among adult in the community. Methodology: Community based cross sectional study was conducted among 384 adult in Jimma town. A systematic sampling technique was used in selecting participants to the study. In searching for the possible association, binary and multivariate logistic regression and t-test was conducted. Finally, the association between microalbuminuria and lung function test was well stated in the form of figures and written description. Result and Conclusion: A significant association was found between microalbuminuria and different lung function test parameters.

Keywords: microalbuminuria, lung function, association, test

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Authors: Usoro Anthony E., Udoh Emediong

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Diagonal Vector Autoregressive Models are special classes of the general vector autoregressive models identified under certain conditions, where parameters are restricted to the diagonal elements in the coefficient matrices. Variance, autocovariance, and autocorrelation properties of the upper and lower diagonal VAR models are derived. The new set of VAR models is verified with empirical data and is found to perform favourably with the general VAR models. The advantage of the diagonal models over the existing models is that the new models are parsimonious, given the reduction in the interactive coefficients of the general VAR models.

Keywords: VAR models, diagonal VAR models, variance, autocovariance, autocorrelations

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Authors: Lei Zhu, Nan Li

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Cold stamping has been widely applied in the automotive industry for the mass production of a great range of automotive panels. Predicting the springback to ensure the dimensional accuracy of the cold-stamped components is a critical step. The main approaches for the prediction and compensation of springback in cold stamping include running Finite Element (FE) simulations and conducting experiments, which require forming process expertise and can be time-consuming and expensive for the design of cold stamping tools. Machine learning technologies have been proven and successfully applied in learning complex system behaviours using presentative samples. These technologies exhibit the promising potential to be used as supporting design tools for metal forming technologies. This study, for the first time, presents a novel application of a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) based surrogate model to predict the springback fields for variable U-shape cold bending geometries. A dataset is created based on the U-shape cold bending geometries and the corresponding FE simulations results. The dataset is then applied to train the CNN surrogate model. The result shows that the surrogate model can achieve near indistinguishable full-field predictions in real-time when compared with the FE simulation results. The application of CNN in efficient springback prediction can be adopted in industrial settings to aid both conceptual and final component designs for designers without having manufacturing knowledge.

Keywords: springback, cold stamping, convolutional neural networks, machine learning

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Authors: David Lindström

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We evaluate the performance of a numerical method for global optimization of expensive functions. The method is using a response surface to guide the search for the global optimum. This metamodel could be based on radial basis functions, kriging, or a combination of different models. We discuss how to set the cycling parameters of the optimization method to get a balance between local and global search. We also discuss the eventual problem with Runge oscillations in the response surface.

Keywords: expensive function, infill sampling criterion, kriging, global optimization, response surface, Runge phenomenon

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Authors: Xavier Bertrand, Alexandre Cayrel

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The early phase of an aircraft development is instrumental as it really drives the potential of a new concept. Any weakness in the high-level design (wing planform, moveable surfaces layout etc.) will be extremely difficult and expensive to recover later in the aircraft development process. Aerodynamic evaluation in this very early development phase is driven by two main criteria: a short lead-time to allow quick iterations of the geometrical design, and a high quality of the calculations to get an accurate & reliable assessment of the current status. These two criteria are usually quite contradictory. Actually, short lead time of a couple of hours from end-to-end can be obtained with very simple tools (semi-empirical methods for instance) although their accuracy is limited, whereas higher quality calculations require heavier/more complex tools, which obviously need more complex inputs as well, and a significantly longer lead time. At this point, the choice has to be done between accuracy and lead-time. A brand new approach has been developed within Airbus, aiming at obtaining quickly high quality evaluations of the aerodynamic of an aircraft. This methodology is based on a joint use of Surrogate Modelling and a lifting line code. The Surrogate Modelling is used to get the wing sections characteristics (e.g. lift coefficient vs. angle of attack), whatever the airfoil geometry, the status of the moveable surfaces (aileron/spoilers) or the high-lift devices deployment. From these characteristics, the lifting line code is used to get the 3D effects on the wing whatever the flow conditions (low/high Mach numbers etc.). This methodology has been applied successfully to a concept of medium range aircraft.

Keywords: aerodynamics, lifting line, surrogate model, CFD

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Authors: Hsing-Hua Stella Chang, Mong-Ching Lin, Cher-Min Fong

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Using surrogate boycotts as a coercive tactic to force the offending party into changing its approaches has been increasingly significant over the last several decades, and is expected to increase in the future. Research shows that surrogate boycotts are often triggered by controversial international events, and particular foreign countries serve as the offending party in the international marketplace. In other words, multinational corporations are likely to become surrogate boycott targets in overseas markets because of the animosity between their home and host countries. Focusing on the surrogate boycott triggered by a severe situation animosity, this research aims to examine how social media influencers (SMIs) serving as electronic key opinion leaders (EKOLs) in an international crisis facilitate and organize a boycott, and persuade consumers to participate in the boycott. This research suggests that SMIs could be a particularly important information source in a surrogate boycott sparked by a situation of animosity. This research suggests that under such a context, SMIs become a critical information source for individuals to enhance and update their understanding of the event because, unlike traditional media, social media serve as a platform for instant and 24-hour non-stop information access and dissemination. The Xinjiang cotton event was adopted as the research context, which was viewed as an ongoing inter-country conflict, reflecting a crisis, which provokes animosity against the West. Through online panel services, both studies recruited Mainland Chinese nationals to be respondents to the surveys. The findings show that: 1. Social media influencer message is positively related to a negative attitude toward the offending country. 2. Attitude toward the offending country is positively related to boycotting participation. To address the unexplored question – of the effect of social media influencer influence on consumer participation in boycotts, this research presents a finer-grained examination of boycott motivation, with a special focus on a situational animosity context. This research is split into two interrelated parts. In the first part, this research shows that attitudes toward the offending country can be socially constructed by the influence of social media influencers in a situational animosity context. The study results show that consumers perceive different strengths of social pressure related to various levels of influencer messages and thus exhibit different levels of attitude toward the offending country. In the second part, this research further investigates the effect of attitude toward the offending country on boycott participation. The study findings show that such attitude exacerbated the effect of social media influencer messages on boycott participation in a situation of animosity.

Keywords: animosity, social media marketing, boycott, attitude toward the offending country

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Authors: Van-Thanh Ho, Jaiyoung Ryu

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In soft robotics, the optimization of fluid dynamics through pneumatic methods plays a pivotal role in enhancing operational efficiency and reducing energy loss. This is particularly crucial when replacing conventional techniques such as cable-driven electromechanical systems. The pneumatic model employed in this study represents a sophisticated framework designed to efficiently channel pressure from a high-pressure reservoir to various muscle locations on the robot's body. This intricate network involves a branching system of tubes. The study introduces a comprehensive pneumatic model, encompassing the components of a reservoir, tubes, and Pneumatically Actuated Muscles (PAM). The development of this model is rooted in the principles of shock tube theory. Notably, the study leverages experimental data to enhance the understanding of the interplay between the PAM structure and the surrounding fluid. This improved interactive approach involves the use of morphing motion, guided by a contraction function. The study's findings demonstrate a high degree of accuracy in predicting pressure distribution within the PAM. The model's predictive capabilities ensure that the error in comparison to experimental data remains below a threshold of 10%. Additionally, the research employs a machine learning model, specifically a surrogate model based on the Kriging method, to assess and quantify uncertainty factors related to the initial reservoir pressure and tube diameter. This comprehensive approach enhances our understanding of pneumatic soft robotics and its potential for improved operational efficiency.

Keywords: pneumatic artificial muscles, pressure drop, morhing motion, branched network, surrogate model

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Authors: Yanqi Yang, Chongshan Liao, Cheuk Hin Ho, Susan Bridges

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Aim: To investigate student’s perceptions of using e-models in an inquiry-based curriculum. Approach: 52 second-year dental students completed a pre- and post-test questionnaire relating to their perceptions of e-models and their use in inquiry-based learning. The pre-test occurred prior to any learning with e-models. The follow-up survey was conducted after one year's experience of using e-models. Results: There was no significant difference between the two sets of questionnaires regarding student’s perceptions of the usefulness of e-models and their willingness to use e-models in future inquiry-based learning. Most of the students preferred using both plaster models and e-models in tandem. Conclusion: Students did not change their attitude towards e-models and most of them agreed or were neutral that e-models are useful in inquiry-based learning. Whilst recognizing the utility of 3D models for learning, student's preference for combining these with solid models has implications for the development of haptic sensibility in an operative discipline.

Keywords: e-models, inquiry-based curriculum, education, questionnaire

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Authors: Faruk Ozdemir, Roy Kalawsky, Peter Hubbard

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Accurate estimation of RUL provides a basis for effective predictive maintenance, reducing unexpected downtime for industrial equipment. However, while models such as the Random Forest have effective predictive capabilities, they are the so-called ‘black box’ models, where interpretability is at a threshold to make critical diagnostic decisions involved in industries related to aviation. The purpose of this work is to present a prognostic framework that embeds Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques in order to provide essential transparency in Machine Learning methods' decision-making mechanisms based on sensor data, with the objective of procuring actionable insights for the aviation industry. Sensor readings have been gathered from critical equipment such as turbofan jet engine and landing gear, and the prediction of the RUL is done by a Random Forest model. It involves steps such as data gathering, feature engineering, model training, and evaluation. These critical components’ datasets are independently trained and evaluated by the models. While suitable predictions are served, their performance metrics are reasonably good; such complex models, however obscure reasoning for the predictions made by them and may even undermine the confidence of the decision-maker or the maintenance teams. This is followed by global explanations using SHAP and local explanations using LIME in the second phase to bridge the gap in reliability within industrial contexts. These tools analyze model decisions, highlighting feature importance and explaining how each input variable affects the output. This dual approach offers a general comprehension of the overall model behavior and detailed insight into specific predictions. The proposed framework, in its third component, incorporates the techniques of causal analysis in the form of Granger causality tests in order to move beyond correlation toward causation. This will not only allow the model to predict failures but also present reasons, from the key sensor features linked to possible failure mechanisms to relevant personnel. The causality between sensor behaviors and equipment failures creates much value for maintenance teams due to better root cause identification and effective preventive measures. This step contributes to the system being more explainable. Surrogate Several simple models, including Decision Trees and Linear Models, can be used in yet another stage to approximately represent the complex Random Forest model. These simpler models act as backups, replicating important jobs of the original model's behavior. If the feature explanations obtained from the surrogate model are cross-validated with the primary model, the insights derived would be more reliable and provide an intuitive sense of how the input variables affect the predictions. We then create an iterative explainable feedback loop, where the knowledge learned from the explainability methods feeds back into the training of the models. This feeds into a cycle of continuous improvement both in model accuracy and interpretability over time. By systematically integrating new findings, the model is expected to adapt to changed conditions and further develop its prognosis capability. These components are then presented to the decision-makers through the development of a fully transparent condition monitoring and alert system. The system provides a holistic tool for maintenance operations by leveraging RUL predictions, feature importance scores, persistent sensor threshold values, and autonomous alert mechanisms. Since the system will provide explanations for the predictions given, along with active alerts, the maintenance personnel can make informed decisions on their end regarding correct interventions to extend the life of the critical machinery.

Keywords: predictive maintenance, explainable artificial intelligence, prognostic, RUL, machine learning, turbofan engines, C-MAPSS dataset

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Authors: Wendu Pang, Yaxin Luo, Junhong Li, Yu Zhao, Danni Cheng, Yufang Rao, Minzi Mao, Ke Qiu, Yijun Dong, Fei Chen, Jun Liu, Jian Zou, Haiyang Wang, Wei Xu, Jianjun Ren

Abstract:

We aimed to compare the prognostic prediction value of positive lymph node number (PLNN) to the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor, lymph node, and metastasis (TNM) staging system for patients with hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (HPSCC). A total of 826 patients with HPSCC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (2004–2015) were identified and split into two independent cohorts: training (n=461) and validation (n=365). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate the prognostic effects of PLNN in patients with HPSCC. We further applied six Cox regression models to compare the survival predictive values of the PLNN and AJCC TNM staging system. PLNN showed a significant association with overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) (P < 0.001) in both univariate and multivariable analyses, and was divided into three groups (PLNN 0, PLNN 1-5, and PLNN>5). In the training cohort, multivariate analysis revealed that the increased PLNN of HPSCC gave rise to significantly poor OS and CSS after adjusting for age, sex, tumor size, and cancer stage; this trend was also verified by the validation cohort. Additionally, the survival model incorporating a composite of PLNN and TNM classification (C-index, 0.705, 0.734) performed better than the PLNN and AJCC TNM models. PLNN can serve as a powerful survival predictor for patients with HPSCC and is a surrogate supplement for cancer staging systems.

Keywords: hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma, positive lymph nodes number, prognosis, prediction models, survival predictive values

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Authors: Abdulbaset Saad, Adel Younis, Zuomin Dong

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For design optimization with high-dimensional expensive problems, an effective and efficient optimization methodology is desired. This work proposes a series of modification to the Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm for solving computation Intensive Black-Box Problems. The proposed methodology is called Radial Basis Meta-Model Algorithm Assisted Differential Evolutionary (RBF-DE), which is a global optimization algorithm based on the meta-modeling techniques. A meta-modeling assisted DE is proposed to solve computationally expensive optimization problems. The Radial Basis Function (RBF) model is used as a surrogate model to approximate the expensive objective function, while DE employs a mechanism to dynamically select the best performing combination of parameters such as differential rate, cross over probability, and population size. The proposed algorithm is tested on benchmark functions and real life practical applications and problems. The test results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is promising and performs well compared to other optimization algorithms. The proposed algorithm is capable of converging to acceptable and good solutions in terms of accuracy, number of evaluations, and time needed to converge.

Keywords: differential evolution, engineering design, expensive computations, meta-modeling, radial basis function, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 396