Search results for: scattering phase function

Authors: Safak Isik, Ozalp Vayvay

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Strategic partnerships with suppliers play a vital role for the long-term value-based supply chain. This strategic collaboration keeps still being one of the top priority of many business organizations in order to create more additional value; benefiting mainly from supplier’s specialization, capacity and innovative power, securing supply and better managing costs and quality. However, many organizations encounter difficulties in initiating, developing and managing those partnerships and many attempts result in failures. One of the reasons for such failure is the incompatibility of members of this partnership or in other words wrong supplier selection which emphasize the significance of the selection process since it is the beginning stage. An effective selection process of strategic suppliers is critical to the success of the partnership. Although there are several research studies to select the suppliers in literature, only a few of them is related to strategic supplier selection for long-term partnership. The purpose of this study is to propose a conceptual model for the selection of strategic partnership suppliers. A two-stage approach has been used in proposed model incorporating first segmentation and second selection. In the first stage; considering the fact that not all suppliers are strategically equal and instead of a long list of potential suppliers, Kraljic’s purchasing portfolio matrix can be used for segmentation. This supplier segmentation is the process of categorizing suppliers based on a defined set of criteria in order to identify types of suppliers and determine potential suppliers for strategic partnership. In the second stage, from a pool of potential suppliers defined at first phase, a comprehensive evaluation and selection can be performed to finally define strategic suppliers considering various tangible and intangible criteria. Since a long-term relationship with strategic suppliers is anticipated, criteria should consider both current and future status of the supplier. Based on an extensive literature review; strategical, operational and organizational criteria have been determined and elaborated. The result of the selection can also be used to determine suppliers who are not ready for a partnership but to be developed for strategic partnership. Since the model is based on multiple criteria for both stages, it provides a framework for further utilization of Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques. The model may also be applied to a wide range of industries and involve managerial features in business organizations.

Keywords: Kraljic’s matrix, purchasing portfolio, strategic supplier selection, supplier collaboration, supplier partnership, supplier segmentation.

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Authors: K. A. Weidenmann, M. Grigo, B. Brylka, P. Elsner, T. Böhlke

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In order to reduce fuel consumption, the weight of automobiles has to be reduced. Fiber reinforced polymers offer the potential to reach this aim because of their high stiffness to weight ratio. Additionally, the use of fiber reinforced polymers in automotive applications has to allow for an economic large-scale production. In this regard, long fiber reinforced thermoplastics made by direct processing offer both mechanical performance and processability in injection moulding and compression moulding. The work presented in this contribution deals with long glass fiber reinforced polypropylene directly processed in compression moulding (D-LFT). For the use in automotive applications both the temperature and the time dependency of the materials properties have to be investigated to fulfill performance requirements during crash or the demands of service temperatures ranging from -40 °C to 80 °C. To consider both the influence of temperature and time, quasistatic tensile tests have been carried out at different temperatures. These tests have been complemented by high speed tensile tests at different strain rates. As expected, the increase in strain rate results in an increase of the elastic modulus which correlates to an increase of the stiffness with decreasing service temperature. The results are in good accordance with results determined by dynamic mechanical analysis within the range of 0.1 to 100 Hz. The experimental results from different testing methods were grouped and interpreted by using different time temperature shift approaches. In this regard, Williams-Landel-Ferry and Arrhenius approach based on kinetics have been used. As the theoretical shift factor follows an arctan function, an empirical approach was also taken into consideration. It could be shown that this approach describes best the time and temperature superposition for glass fiber reinforced polypropylene manufactured by D-LFT processing.

Keywords: Composite, long fiber reinforced thermoplastics, mechanical properties, dynamic mechanical analysis, time temperature superposition.

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Authors: Ola Elfmark, Lars M. Bardal, Luca Oggiano, H˚avard Myklebust

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Team pursuit is a relatively new event in international long track speed skating. For a single speed skater the aerodynamic drag will account for up to 80% of the braking force, thus reducing the drag can greatly improve the performance. In a team pursuit the interactions between athletes in near proximity will also be essential, but is not well studied. In this study, systematic measurements of the aerodynamic drag, body posture and relative positioning of speed skaters have been performed in the low speed wind tunnel at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology, in order to investigate the aerodynamic interaction between two speed skaters. Drag measurements of static speed skaters drafting, leading, side-by-side, and dynamic drag measurements in a synchronized and unsynchronized movement at different distances, were performed. The projected frontal area was measured for all postures and movements and a blockage correction was performed, as the blockage ratio ranged from 5-15% in the different setups. The static drag measurements where performed on two test subjects in two different postures, a low posture and a high posture, and two different distances between the test subjects 1.5T and 3T where T being the length of the torso (T=0.63m). A drag reduction was observed for all distances and configurations, from 39% to 11.4%, for the drafting test subject. The drag of the leading test subject was only influenced at -1.5T, with the biggest drag reduction of 5.6%. An increase in drag was seen for all side-by-side measurements, the biggest increase was observed to be 25.7%, at the closest distance between the test subjects, and the lowest at 2.7% with ∼ 0.7 m between the test subjects. A clear aerodynamic interaction between the test subjects and their postures was observed for most measurements during static measurements, with results corresponding well to recent studies. For the dynamic measurements, the leading test subject had a drag reduction of 3% even at -3T. The drafting showed a drag reduction of 15% when being in a synchronized (sync) motion with the leading test subject at 4.5T. The maximal drag reduction for both the leading and the drafting test subject were observed when being as close as possible in sync, with a drag reduction of 8.5% and 25.7% respectively. This study emphasize the importance of keeping a synchronized movement by showing that the maximal gain for the leading and drafting dropped to 3.2% and 3.3% respectively when the skaters are in opposite phase. Individual differences in technique also appear to influence the drag of the other test subject.

Keywords: Aerodynamic interaction, drag cycle, drag force, frontal area, speed skating.

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Authors: Cheima Ben Soltane, Ittansa Yonas Kelbesa

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Speaker Identification (SI) is the task of establishing identity of an individual based on his/her voice characteristics. The SI task is typically achieved by two-stage signal processing: training and testing. The training process calculates speaker specific feature parameters from the speech and generates speaker models accordingly. In the testing phase, speech samples from unknown speakers are compared with the models and classified. Even though performance of speaker identification systems has improved due to recent advances in speech processing techniques, there is still need of improvement. In this paper, a Closed-Set Tex-Independent Speaker Identification System (CISI) based on a Multiple Classifier System (MCS) is proposed, using Mel Frequency Cepstrum Coefficient (MFCC) as feature extraction and suitable combination of vector quantization (VQ) and Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) together with Expectation Maximization algorithm (EM) for speaker modeling. The use of Voice Activity Detector (VAD) with a hybrid approach based on Short Time Energy (STE) and Statistical Modeling of Background Noise in the pre-processing step of the feature extraction yields a better and more robust automatic speaker identification system. Also investigation of Linde-Buzo-Gray (LBG) clustering algorithm for initialization of GMM, for estimating the underlying parameters, in the EM step improved the convergence rate and systems performance. It also uses relative index as confidence measures in case of contradiction in identification process by GMM and VQ as well. Simulation results carried out on voxforge.org speech database using MATLAB highlight the efficacy of the proposed method compared to earlier work.

Keywords: Feature Extraction, Speaker Modeling, Feature Matching, Mel Frequency Cepstrum Coefficient (MFCC), Gaussian mixture model (GMM), Vector Quantization (VQ), Linde-Buzo-Gray (LBG), Expectation Maximization (EM), pre-processing, Voice Activity Detection (VAD), Short Time Energy (STE), Background Noise Statistical Modeling, Closed-Set Tex-Independent Speaker Identification System (CISI).

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Authors: Mustafa Al Sukar, Azzam Sleit, Abdullatif Abu-Dalhoum, Bassam Al-Kasasbeh

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Use and abuse of drugs by teens is very common and can have dangerous consequences. The drugs contribute to physical and sexual aggression such as assault or rape. Some teenagers regularly use drugs to compensate for depression, anxiety or a lack of positive social skills. Teen resort to smoking should not be minimized because it can be "gateway drugs" for other drugs (marijuana, cocaine, hallucinogens, inhalants, and heroin). The combination of teenagers' curiosity, risk taking behavior, and social pressure make it very difficult to say no. This leads most teenagers to the questions: "Will it hurt to try once?" Nowadays, technological advances are changing our lives very rapidly and adding a lot of technologies that help us to track the risk of drug abuse such as smart phones, Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs), Internet of Things (IoT), etc. This technique may help us to early discovery of drug abuse in order to prevent an aggravation of the influence of drugs on the abuser. In this paper, we have developed a Decision Support System (DSS) for detecting the drug abuse using Artificial Neural Network (ANN); we used a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) feed-forward neural network in developing the system. The input layer includes 50 variables while the output layer contains one neuron which indicates whether the person is a drug addict. An iterative process is used to determine the number of hidden layers and the number of neurons in each one. We used multiple experiment models that have been completed with Log-Sigmoid transfer function. Particularly, 10-fold cross validation schemes are used to access the generalization of the proposed system. The experiment results have obtained 98.42% classification accuracy for correct diagnosis in our system. The data had been taken from 184 cases in Jordan according to a set of questions compiled from Specialists, and data have been obtained through the families of drug abusers.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, Decision Support System, drug abuse, drug addiction, Multilayer Perceptron.

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Authors: Kyomin Lee, Joohee Kim, Sangho Kang

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The commercial nuclear power reactor in South Korea, Kori Unit 1, which was a 587 MWe pressurized water reactor that started operation since 1978, was permanently shut down in June 2017 without an additional operating license extension. The Kori 1 Unit is scheduled to become the nuclear power unit to enter the decommissioning phase. In this study, the preliminary evaluation of the decommissioning wastes for the Kori Unit 1 was performed based on the following series of process: firstly, the plant inventory is investigated based on various documents (i.e., equipment/ component list, construction records, general arrangement drawings). Secondly, the radiological conditions of systems, structures and components (SSCs) are established to estimate the amount of radioactive waste by waste classification. Third, the waste management strategies for Kori Unit 1 including waste packaging are established. Forth, selection of the proper decontamination and dismantling (D&D) technologies is made considering the various factors. Finally, the amount of decommissioning waste by classification for Kori 1 is estimated using the DeCAT program, which was developed by KEPCO-E&C for a decommissioning cost estimation. The preliminary evaluation results have shown that the expected amounts of decommissioning wastes were less than about 2% and 8% of the total wastes generated (i.e., sum of clean wastes and radwastes) before/after waste processing, respectively, and it was found that the majority of contaminated material was carbon or alloy steel and stainless steel. In addition, within the range of availability of information, the results of the evaluation were compared with the results from the various decommissioning experiences data or international/national decommissioning study. The comparison results have shown that the radioactive waste amount from Kori Unit 1 decommissioning were much less than those from the plants decommissioned in U.S. and were comparable to those from the plants in Europe. This result comes from the difference of disposal cost and clearance criteria (i.e., free release level) between U.S. and non-U.S. The preliminary evaluation performed using the methodology established in this study will be useful as a important information in establishing the decommissioning planning for the decommissioning schedule and waste management strategy establishment including the transportation, packaging, handling, and disposal of radioactive wastes.

Keywords: Characterization, classification, decommissioning, decontamination and dismantling, Kori 1, radioactive waste.

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Authors: Amlan Kumar Das, Avinash Marwal, Vikram Pareek

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Liposome plays an important role in medical and pharmaceutical science as e.g. nano scale drug carriers. Liposomes are vesicles of varying size consisting of a spherical lipid bilayer and an aqueous inner compartment. Magnet-driven liposome used for the targeted delivery of drugs to organs and tissues. These liposome preparations contain encapsulated drug components and finely dispersed magnetic particles. Liposomes are vesicles of varying size consisting of a spherical lipid bilayer and an aqueous inner compartment that are generated in vitro. These are useful in terms of biocompatibility, biodegradability, and low toxicity, and can control biodistribution by changing the size, lipid composition, and physical characteristics. Furthermore, liposomes can entrap both hydrophobic and hydrophilic drugs and are able to continuously release the entrapped substrate, thus being useful drug carriers. Magnetic liposomes (MLs) are phospholipid vesicles that encapsulate magneticor paramagnetic nanoparticles. They are applied as contrast agents for magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). The biological synthesis of nanoparticles using plant extracts plays an important role in the field of nanotechnology. Green-synthesized magnetite nanoparticles-protein hybrid has been produced by treating Iron (III) / Iron (II) chloride with the leaf extract of Datura inoxia. The phytochemicals present in the leaf extracts act as a reducing as well stabilizing agents preventing agglomeration, which include flavonoids, phenolic compounds, cardiac glycosides, proteins and sugars. The magnetite nanoparticles-protein hybrid has been trapped inside the aqueous core of the liposome prepared by reversed phase evaporation (REV) method using oleic and linoleic acid which has been shown to be driven under magnetic field confirming the formation magnetic liposome (ML). Chemical characterization of stealth magnetic liposome has been performed by breaking the liposome and release of magnetic nanoparticles. The presence iron has been confirmed by colour complex formation with KSCN and UV-Vis study using spectrophotometer Cary 60, Agilent. This magnet driven liposome using nanoparticles-protein hybrid can be a smart vesicles for the targeted drug delivery.

Keywords: Nanoparticles-Protein Hybrid, Magnetic Liposome.

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Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Erkut Karasu, Burcu Ozdilek, Burhan Turgut, Birol Topcu, Burcin Nalbantoglu, Orkide Donma

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The mechanisms underlying the association between obesity and asthma may be related to a decreased immunological tolerance induced by a defective function of regulatory T cells (Tregs). The aim of this study is to establish the potential link between these diseases and CD4+, CD25+ FoxP3+ Tregs as well as T helper cells (Ths) in children. This is a prospective case control study. Obese (n:40), asthmatic (n:40), asthmatic obese (n:40) and healthy children (n:40), who don't have any acute or chronic diseases, were included in this study. Obese children were evaluated according to WHO criteria. Asthmatic patients were chosen based on GINA criteria. Parents were asked to fill up the questionnaire. Informed consent forms were taken. Blood samples were marked with CD4+, CD25+ and FoxP3+ in order to determine Tregs and Ths by flow cytometric method. Statistical analyses were performed. p≤0.05 was chosen as meaningful threshold. Tregs exhibiting anti-inflammatory nature were significantly lower in obese (0,16%; p≤0,001), asthmatic (0,25%; p≤0,01) and asthmatic obese (0,29%; p≤0,05) groups than the control group (0,38%). Ths were counted higher in asthma group than the control (p≤0,01) and obese (p≤0,001) groups. T cell immunity plays important roles in obesity and asthma pathogeneses. Decreased numbers of Tregs found in obese, asthmatic and asthmatic obese children may help to elucidate some questions in pathophysiology of these diseases. For HOMA-IR levels, any significant difference was not noted between control and obese groups, but statistically higher values were found for obese asthmatics. The values obtained in all groups were found to be below the critical cut off points. This finding has made the statistically significant difference observed between Tregs of obese, asthmatic, obese asthmatic and control groups much more valuable. These findings will be useful in diagnosis and treatment of these disorders and future studies are needed. The production and propagation of Tregs may be promising in alternative asthma and obesity treatments.

Keywords: Asthma, flow cytometry, pediatric obesity, T cells.

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Authors: Anjin Park, Sungju Yun, Jungwhan Kim, Seungk Min, Keechul Jung

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Finger spelling is an art of communicating by signs made with fingers, and has been introduced into sign language to serve as a bridge between the sign language and the verbal language. Previous approaches to finger spelling recognition are classified into two categories: glove-based and vision-based approaches. The glove-based approach is simpler and more accurate recognizing work of hand posture than vision-based, yet the interfaces require the user to wear a cumbersome and carry a load of cables that connected the device to a computer. In contrast, the vision-based approaches provide an attractive alternative to the cumbersome interface, and promise more natural and unobtrusive human-computer interaction. The vision-based approaches generally consist of two steps: hand extraction and recognition, and two steps are processed independently. This paper proposes real-time vision-based Korean finger spelling recognition system by integrating hand extraction into recognition. First, we tentatively detect a hand region using CAMShift algorithm. Then fill factor and aspect ratio estimated by width and height estimated by CAMShift are used to choose candidate from database, which can reduce the number of matching in recognition step. To recognize the finger spelling, we use DTW(dynamic time warping) based on modified chain codes, to be robust to scale and orientation variations. In this procedure, since accurate hand regions, without holes and noises, should be extracted to improve the precision, we use graph cuts algorithm that globally minimize the energy function elegantly expressed by Markov random fields (MRFs). In the experiments, the computational times are less than 130ms, and the times are not related to the number of templates of finger spellings in database, as candidate templates are selected in extraction step.

Keywords: CAMShift, DTW, Graph Cuts, MRF.

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Authors: Paitoon Kraipornsak

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The recent global financial problem urges government to play role in stimulating the economy due to the fact that private sector has little ability to purchase during the recession. A concerned question is whether the increased government spending crowds out private consumption and whether it helps stimulate the economy. If the government spending policy is effective; the private consumption is expected to increase and can compensate the recent extra government expense. In this study, the government spending is categorized into government consumption spending and government capital spending. The study firstly examines consumer consumption along the line with the demand function in microeconomic theory. Three categories of private consumption are used in the study. Those are food consumption, non food consumption, and services consumption. The dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System of the three categories of the private consumption is estimated using the Vector Error Correction Mechanism model. The estimated model indicates the substituting effects (negative impacts) of the government consumption spending on budget shares of private non food consumption and of the government capital spending on budget share of private food consumption, respectively. Nevertheless the result does not necessarily indicate whether the negative effects of changes in the budget shares of the non food and the food consumption means fallen total private consumption. Microeconomic consumer demand analysis clearly indicates changes in component structure of aggregate expenditure in the economy as a result of the government spending policy. The macroeconomic concept of aggregate demand comprising consumption, investment, government spending (the government consumption spending and the government capital spending), export, and import are used to estimate for their relationship using the Vector Error Correction Mechanism model. The macroeconomic study found no effect of the government capital spending on either the private consumption or the growth of GDP while the government consumption spending has negative effect on the growth of GDP. Therefore no crowding out effect of the government spending is found on the private consumption but it is ineffective and even inefficient expenditure as found reducing growth of the GDP in the context of Thailand.

Keywords: government consumption spending, governmentcapital spending, private consumption on food, non food, andservices, Vector Error Correction Mechanism, Almost Ideal DemandSystem, substitution effect, complementary effect, consumer demand, aggregate demand

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Authors: M. M. Shahidul Hassan, Omiya Hassan

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Bangladesh has set its goal to reach upper middle-income country status by 2024. To attain this status, the country must satisfy the World Bank requirement of achieving minimum Gross National Income (GNI). Number of youth job seekers in the country is increasing. University graduates are looking for decent jobs. So, the vital issue of this country is to understand how the GNI and jobs can be increased. The objective of this paper is to address these issues and find ways to create more job opportunities for youths at home and abroad which will increase the country’s GNI. The paper studies proportion of different goods Bangladesh exported, and also the percentage of employment in different sectors. The data used here for the purpose of analysis have been collected from the available literature. These data are then plotted and analyzed. Through these studies, it is concluded that growth in sectors like agricultural, ready-made garments (RMG), jute industries and fisheries are declining and the business community is not interested in setting up capital-intensive industries. Under this situation, the country needs to explore other business opportunities for a higher economic growth rate. Knowledge can substitute the physical resource. Since the country consists of the large youth population, higher education will play a key role in economic development. It now needs graduates with higher-order skills with innovative quality. Such dispositions demand changes in a university’s curriculum, teaching and assessment method which will function young generations as active learners and creators. By bringing these changes in higher education, a knowledge-based society can be created. The application of such knowledge and creativity will then become the commodity of Bangladesh which will help to reach its goal as an upper middle-income country.

Keywords: Bangladesh, economic sectors, economic growth, higher education, knowledge-based economy, massifcation of higher education, teaching and learning, universities’ role in society.

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Authors: S. S. Sharma, Jagannath K, P. R. Prabhu

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Metal matrix composites consists of a metallic matrix combined with dispersed particulate phase as reinforcement. Aluminum alloys have been the primary material of choice for structural components of aircraft since about 1930. Well known performance characteristics, known fabrication costs, design experience, and established manufacturing methods and facilities, are just a few of the reasons for the continued confidence in 7XXX Al alloys that will ensure their use in significant quantities for the time to come. Particulate MMCs are of special interest owing to the low cost of their raw materials (primarily natural river sand here) and their ease of fabrication, making them suitable for applications requiring relatively high volume production. 7XXX Al alloys are precipitation hardenable and therefore amenable for thermomechanical treatment. Al–Zn alloys reinforced with particulate materials are used in aerospace industries in spite of the drawbacks of susceptibility to stress corrosion, poor wettability, poor weldability and poor fatigue resistance. The resistance offered by these particulates for the moving dislocations impart secondary hardening in turn contributes strain hardening. Cold deformation increases lattice defects, which in turn improves the properties of solution treated alloy. In view of this, six different Al–Zn–Mg alloy composites reinforced with silica (3 wt. % and 5 wt. %) are prepared by conventional semisolid synthesizing process. The cast alloys are solution treated and aged. The solution treated alloys are further severely cold rolled to enhance the properties. The hardness and strength values are analyzed and compared with silica free Al – Zn-Mg alloys. Precipitation hardening phenomena is accelerated due to the increased number of potential sites for precipitation. Higher peak hardness and lesser aging time are the characteristics of thermo mechanically treated samples. For obtaining maximum hardness, optimum number and volume of precipitate particles are required. The Al-5Zn-1Mg with 5% SiO₂ alloy composite shows better result.

Keywords: Dislocation, hardness, matrix, thermomechanical, precipitation hardening, reinforcement.

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Authors: Hoai Nam Huynh, Edouard Rivière-Lorphèvre, Olivier Verlinden

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Manufacturing technologies are becoming continuously more diversified over the years. The increasing use of robots for various applications such as assembling, painting, welding has also affected the field of machining. Machining robots can deal with larger workspaces than conventional machine-tools at a lower cost and thus represent a very promising alternative for machining applications. Furthermore, their inherent structure ensures them a great flexibility of motion to reach any location on the workpiece with the desired orientation. Nevertheless, machining robots suffer from a lack of stiffness at their joints restricting their use to applications involving low cutting forces especially finishing operations. Vibratory instabilities may also happen while machining and deteriorate the precision leading to scrap parts. Some researchers are therefore concerned with the identification of optimal parameters in robotic machining. This paper continues the development of a virtual robotic machining simulator in order to find optimized cutting parameters in terms of depth of cut or feed per tooth for example. The simulation environment combines an in-house milling routine (DyStaMill) achieving the computation of cutting forces and material removal with an in-house multibody library (EasyDyn) which is used to build a dynamic model of a 3-DOF planar robot with flexible links. The position of the robot end-effector submitted to milling forces is controlled through an inverse kinematics scheme while controlling the position of its joints separately. Each joint is actuated through a servomotor for which the transfer function has been computed in order to tune the corresponding controller. The output results feature the evolution of the cutting forces when the robot structure is deformable or not and the tracking errors of the end-effector. Illustrations of the resulting machined surfaces are also presented. The consideration of the links flexibility has highlighted an increase of the cutting forces magnitude. This proof of concept will aim to enrich the database of results in robotic machining for potential improvements in production.

Keywords: Control, machining, multibody, robotic, simulation.

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Authors: Philip T. Broughton, Mark P. Bettney, Isla L. Smail

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Effective treatment of ground instability is essential when managing the impacts associated with historic mining. A field trial was undertaken by the Coal Authority to investigate the geotechnical performance and potential use of composite materials comprising resin and fill or stone to safely treat surface collapses, such as crown-holes, associated with shallow mining. Test pits were loosely filled with various granular fill materials. The fill material was injected with commercially available silicate and polyurethane resin foam products. In situ and laboratory testing was undertaken to assess the geotechnical properties of the resultant composite materials. The test pits were subsequently excavated to assess resin permeation. Drilling and resin injection was easiest through clean limestone fill materials. Recycled building waste fill material proved difficult to inject with resin; this material is thus considered unsuitable for use in resin composites. Incomplete resin permeation in several of the test pits created irregular ‘blocks’ of composite. Injected resin foams significantly improve the stiffness and resistance (strength) of the un-compacted fill material. The stiffness of the treated fill material appears to be a function of the stone particle size, its associated compaction characteristics (under loose tipping) and the proportion of resin foam matrix. The type of fill material is more critical than the type of resin to the geotechnical properties of the composite materials. Resin composites can effectively support typical design imposed loads. Compared to other traditional treatment options, such as cement grouting, the use of resin composites is potentially less disruptive, particularly for sites with limited access, and thus likely to achieve significant reinstatement cost savings. The use of resin composites is considered a suitable option for the future treatment of shallow mining collapses.

Keywords: Composite material, ground improvement, mining legacy, resin.

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Authors: B. Arzhanov, A. Correia, P. Delgado, J. Meireles

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Quad Flat No-Lead (QFN) packages have become very popular for turners, converters and audio amplifiers, among others applications, needing efficient power dissipation in small footprints. Since semiconductor junction temperature (T_J) is a critical parameter in the product quality. And to ensure that die temperature does not exceed the maximum allowable T_J, a thermal analysis conducted in an earlier development phase is essential to avoid repeated re-designs process with huge losses in cost and time. A simulation tool capable to estimate die temperature of components with QFN package was developed. Allow establish a non-empirical way to define an acceptance criterion for amount of voids in solder interface between its exposed pad and Printed Circuit Board (PCB) to be applied during industrialization process, and evaluate the impact of PCB designs parameters. Targeting PCB layout designer as an end user for the application, a user-friendly interface (GUI) was implemented allowing user to introduce design parameters in a convenient and secure way and hiding all the complexity of finite element simulation process. This cost effective tool turns transparent a simulating process and provides useful outputs after acceptable time, which can be adopted by PCB designers, preventing potential risks during the design stage and make product economically efficient by not oversizing it. This article gathers relevant information related to the design and implementation of the developed tool, presenting a parametric study conducted with it. The simulation tool was experimentally validated using a Thermal-Test-Chip (TTC) in a QFN open-cavity, in order to measure junction temperature (T_J) directly on the die under controlled and knowing conditions. Providing a short overview about standard thermal solutions and impacts in exposed pad packages (i.e. QFN), accurately describe the methods and techniques that the system designer should use to achieve optimum thermal performance, and demonstrate the effect of system-level constraints on the thermal performance of the design.

Keywords: Quad Flat No-Lead packages, exposed pads, junction temperature, thermal management and measurements.

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Authors: Rodrigo T. Lourenço, Margarida Mano

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Higher Education Institutions (HEI), and other levels of Education, face important challenges. One of the most relevant one is the ability to adapt to a society that is changing over time, whilst guarantying levels of training that do not merely react to such changes. Thus, interacting with society, particularly with surrounding communities and key stakeholders, has become an essential requirement for the sustainability of these institutions. One of the formal mechanisms implemented in European educational institutions has been the design of organizational structures that include a top governance body sharing its constitution with both internal members, students and external members. Such frame holds the core mission of involving communities in the governance of educational institutions, assuming, both strategic decision-making functions, with the approval of the institutions’ strategic plans, and a supervision function, approved by activity reports. It also plays an essential role in the life of institutions by holding the responsibility of electing its top executives. In Portugal, it has been almost a decade since the publication of RJIES, the legal framework of Higher Education, such bodies being designated by General Councils. Thus, one may highlight that there has been a better understanding of the operative process of these bodies, as well as their added value to the education system. It has also been possible to analyse the extent to which their core mission has been fulfilled and to understand its growing relevance, particularly regarding the autonomy of institutions. This article aims to contribute to this theme by presenting the results of a study on the role of these bodies in the governance of Public Portuguese HEI, with a special focus on the supervisory competence of organizational performance. Through questionnaires made to board members and interviews with chairpersons of the bodies and top managers of the institutions, it was possible to conclude that there is a high concern with the connections to the external environment. However, regarding organizational performance and the role of the Council as a supervisor of that performance, the activity of the bodies has fallen short of what would be expected. Several reasons may be identified. It is important to emphasize the importance of the profile of the external members and the relationship between the organ’s standard functioning and the election of the head of the institution.

Keywords: Governance, stakeholders, supervision, organizational performance.

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Authors: Ben Khayut, Lina Fabri, Maya Avikhana

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The modern Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI) models cannot: a) independently, situationally, and continuously function without of human intelligence, used for retraining and reprogramming the ANI’s models, and b) think, understand, be conscious, and cognize under uncertainty and changing of the environmental objects. To eliminate these shortcomings and build a new generation of Artificial Intelligence systems, the paper proposes a Conception, Model, and Method of Computational Psycholinguistic Cognitive Situational-Fuzzy Self-Controlled Brain and Mind System (CPCSFSCBMSUU). This system uses a neural network as its computational memory, and activates functions of the perception, identification of real objects, fuzzy situational control, and forming images of these objects. These images and objects are used for modeling their psychological, linguistic, cognitive, and neural values of properties and features, the meanings of which are identified, interpreted, generated, and formed taking into account the identified subject area, using the data, information, knowledge, accumulated in the Memory. The functioning of the CPCSFSCBMSUU is carried out by its subsystems of the: fuzzy situational control of all processes, computational perception, identifying of reactions and actions, Psycholinguistic Cognitive Fuzzy Logical Inference, Decision Making, Reasoning, Systems Thinking, Planning, Awareness, Consciousness, Cognition, Intuition, and Wisdom. In doing so are performed analysis and processing of the psycholinguistic, subject, visual, signal, sound and other objects, accumulation and using the data, information and knowledge of the Memory, communication, and interaction with other computing systems, robots and humans in order of solving the joint tasks. To investigate the functional processes of the proposed system, the principles of situational control, fuzzy logic, psycholinguistics, informatics, and modern possibilities of data science were applied. The proposed self-controlled system of brain and mind is oriented on use as a plug-in in multilingual subject applications.

Keywords: Computational psycholinguistic cognitive brain and mind system, situational fuzzy control, uncertainty, AI.

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Authors: Yudia Mailani Putri, Martalena Purba, B. J. Istiti Kandarina

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Background: Obesity has been recognized as a global health problem. Individuals classified as overweight and obese are increasing at an alarming rate. This condition is associated with psychological and physiological problems. as a person reaches adulthood, somatic growth ceases. At this stage, the human body has developed fully, to a stable state. As the capital of Riau Province in Indonesia, Pekanbaru is dominated by Malay ethnic population habitually consuming cholesterol-rich fatty foods as a daily menu, a trigger to the onset of obesity resulting in high prevalence of degenerative diseases. Research objectives: The aim of this study is elaborating the relationship between high-fat consumption pattern, stress level, physical activity and the incidence of obesity in adult women in Pekanbaru city. Research Methods: Among the combined research methods applied in this study, the first stage is quantitative observational, analytical cross-sectional research design with adult women aged 20-40 living in Pekanbaru city. The sample consists of 200 women with BMI≥25. Sample data is processed with univariate, bivariate (correlation and simple linear regression) and multivariate (multiple linear regression) analysis. The second phase is qualitative descriptive study purposive sampling by in-depth interviews. six participants withdrew from the study. Results: According to the results of the bivariate analysis, there are relationships between the incidence of obesity and the pattern of high fat foods consumption (energy intake (p≤0.000; r = 0.536), protein intake (p≤0.000; r=0.307), fat intake (p≤0.000; r=0.416), carbohydrate intake (p≤0.000; r=0.430), frequency of fatty food consumption (p≤0.000; r=0.506) and frequency of viscera foods consumption (p≤0.000; r=0.535). There is a relationship between physical activity and incidence of obesity (p≤0.000; r=-0.631). However, there is no relationship between the level of stress (p=0.741; r=0.019-) and the incidence of obesity. Physical activity is a predominant factor in the incidence of obesity in adult women in Pekanbaru city. Conclusion: There are relationships between high-fat food consumption pattern, physical activity and the incidence of obesity in Pekanbaru city whereas physical activity is a predominant factor in the occurrence of obesity, supported by the unchangeable pattern of high-fat foods consumption.

Keywords: Obesity, adult, high in fat, stress, physical activity, consumption pattern.

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Authors: Talal Alsulaiman, Khaldoun Khashanah

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In this paper, we provided a literature survey on the artificial stock problem (ASM). The paper began by exploring the complexity of the stock market and the needs for ASM. ASM aims to investigate the link between individual behaviors (micro level) and financial market dynamics (macro level). The variety of patterns at the macro level is a function of the AFM complexity. The financial market system is a complex system where the relationship between the micro and macro level cannot be captured analytically. Computational approaches, such as simulation, are expected to comprehend this connection. Agent-based simulation is a simulation technique commonly used to build AFMs. The paper proceeds by discussing the components of the ASM. We consider the roles of behavioral finance (BF) alongside the traditionally risk-averse assumption in the construction of agent’s attributes. Also, the influence of social networks in the developing of agents interactions is addressed. Network topologies such as a small world, distance-based, and scale-free networks may be utilized to outline economic collaborations. In addition, the primary methods for developing agents learning and adaptive abilities have been summarized. These incorporated approach such as Genetic Algorithm, Genetic Programming, Artificial neural network and Reinforcement Learning. In addition, the most common statistical properties (the stylized facts) of stock that are used for calibration and validation of ASM are discussed. Besides, we have reviewed the major related previous studies and categorize the utilized approaches as a part of these studies. Finally, research directions and potential research questions are argued. The research directions of ASM may focus on the macro level by analyzing the market dynamic or on the micro level by investigating the wealth distributions of the agents.

Keywords: Artificial stock markets, agent based simulation, bounded rationality, behavioral finance, artificial neural network, interaction, scale-free networks.

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Authors: Ahmed R. Z. Baghdadi, Mona H. Gamal Eldein

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Background: With the perceived pain and poor function experienced following knee arthroplasty, patients usually feel un-satisfied. Yet, a controversy still persists on the appropriate operative technique that doesn’t affect proprioception much. Purpose: This study compared the effects of Cruciate Retaining (CR) and Posterior Stabilized (PS) total knee arthroplasty (TKA on dynamic balance, pain and functional performance following rehabilitation. Methods: Thirty patients with CRTKA (group I), thirty with PSTKA (group II) and fifteen indicated for arthroplasty but weren’t operated on yet (group III) participated in the study. The mean age was 54.53±3.44, 55.13±3.48 and 55.33±2.32 years and BMI 35.7±3.03, 35.7±1.99 and 35.73±1.03 kg/m2 for groups I, II and III respectively. The Berg Balance Scale (BBS), WOMAC pain subscale and Timed Up-and-Go (TUG) and Stair-Climbing (SC) tests were used for assessment. Assessments were conducted four weeks preand post-operatively, three, six and twelve months post-operatively with the control group being assessed at the same time intervals. The post-operative rehabilitation involved hospitalization (1st week), home-based (2nd-4th weeks), and outpatient clinic (5th-12th weeks) programs, follow-up to all groups for twelve months. Results: The Mixed design MANOVA revealed that group I had significantly lower pain scores and SC time compared with group II three, six and twelve months post-operatively. Moreover, the BBS scores increased significantly and the pain scores and TUG and SC time decreased significantly six months post-operatively compared with four weeks pre- and post-operatively and three months postoperatively in groups I and II with the opposite being true four weeks post-operatively. But no significant differences in BBS scores, pain scores and TUG and SC time between six and twelve months postoperatively in groups I and II. Interpretation/Conclusion: CRTKA is preferable to PSTKA, possibly due to the preserved human proprioceptors in the un-excised PCL.

Keywords: Dynamic Balance, Functional Performance, Knee Arthroplasty, Long-Term.

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Authors: Padmanabhan Balasubramanian, C. Ardil

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In this paper, we consider the problem of logic simplification for a special class of logic functions, namely complementary Boolean functions (CBF), targeting low power implementation using static CMOS logic style. The functions are uniquely characterized by the presence of terms, where for a canonical binary 2-tuple, D(mj) ∪ D(mk) = { } and therefore, we have | D(mj) ∪ D(mk) | = 0 [19]. Similarly, D(Mj) ∪ D(Mk) = { } and hence | D(Mj) ∪ D(Mk) | = 0. Here, 'mk' and 'Mk' represent a minterm and maxterm respectively. We compare the circuits minimized with our proposed method with those corresponding to factored Reed-Muller (f-RM) form, factored Pseudo Kronecker Reed-Muller (f-PKRM) form, and factored Generalized Reed-Muller (f-GRM) form. We have opted for algebraic factorization of the Reed-Muller (RM) form and its different variants, using the factorization rules of [1], as it is simple and requires much less CPU execution time compared to Boolean factorization operations. This technique has enabled us to greatly reduce the literal count as well as the gate count needed for such RM realizations, which are generally prone to consuming more cells and subsequently more power consumption. However, this leads to a drawback in terms of the design-for-test attribute associated with the various RM forms. Though we still preserve the definition of those forms viz. realizing such functionality with only select types of logic gates (AND gate and XOR gate), the structural integrity of the logic levels is not preserved. This would consequently alter the testability properties of such circuits i.e. it may increase/decrease/maintain the same number of test input vectors needed for their exhaustive testability, subsequently affecting their generalized test vector computation. We do not consider the issue of design-for-testability here, but, instead focus on the power consumption of the final logic implementation, after realization with a conventional CMOS process technology (0.35 micron TSMC process). The quality of the resulting circuits evaluated on the basis of an established cost metric viz., power consumption, demonstrate average savings by 26.79% for the samples considered in this work, besides reduction in number of gates and input literals by 39.66% and 12.98% respectively, in comparison with other factored RM forms.

Keywords: Reed-Muller forms, Logic function, Hammingdistance, Algebraic factorization, Low power design.

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Authors: Fawzi Irshaid, Kamal Mansi

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Thyroid dysfunction is one of the most frequently reported complications of chronic blood transfusion therapy in patients with beta-thalassemia major (BTM). However, the occurrence of thyroid dysfunction and its possible association with iron overload in BTM patients is still under debate. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the status of thyroid functions and iron overload in adolescent and young adult patients with BTM in Jordan population. Thirty six BTM patients aged 12-28 years and matched controls were included in this study. All patients have been receiving frequent blood transfusion to maintain pretransfusion hemoglobin concentration above 10 g dl-1 and deferoxamine at a dose of 45 mg kg-1 day-1 (8 h, 5-7 days/week) by subcutaneous infusion. Blood samples were drawn from patients and controls. The status of thyroid functions and iron overload was evaluated by measurements of serum free thyroxine (FT4), triiodothyronine (FT3), thyrotropin (TSH) and serum ferritin level. A number of some hematological and biochemical parameters were also measured. It was found that hematocrit, serum ferritin, hemoglobin, FT3 and zinc, copper mean values were significantly higher in the patients than in the controls (P< 0.05). On other hand, leukocyte, FT4 and TSH mean values were similar to that of the controls. In addition, our data also indicated that all of the above examined parameters were not significantly affected by the patient-s age and gender. Deferoxamine approach for removing excess iron from our BTM patient did not normalize the values of serum ferritin, copper and zinc, suggesting poor compliance with deferoxamine chelation therapy. Thus, we recommend the use of a combination of deferoxamine and deferiprone to reduce the risk of excess of iron in our patients. Furthermore, thyroid dysfunction appears to be a rare complication, because our patients showed normal mean levels for serum TSH and FT4. However, high mean levels of serum ferritin, zinc, copper might be seen as potential risk factors for initiation and development of thyroid dysfunctions and other diseases. Therefore, further studies must be carried out at yearly intervals with large sample number, to detect subclinical thyroid dysfunction cases.

Keywords: beta-thalassemia major, deferoxamine, iron overload, triiodothyronine, zinc.

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Authors: Marcelo Araujo da Nóbrega, Ariel Moura Vilas Boas

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This study aims to characterize the physicochemical aspects of the soils of southeastern Chapada Diamantina - Bahia related to the phytophysiognomies of this area, rupestrian field, small savanna (savanna fields), small dense savanna (savanna fields), savanna (Cerrado), dry thorny forest (Caatinga), dry thorny forest/savanna, scrub (Carrasco - ecotone), forest island (seasonal semi-deciduous forest - Capão) and seasonal semi-deciduous forest. To achieve the research objective, soil samples were collected in each plant formation and analyzed in the soil laboratory of ESALQ - USP in order to identify soil fertility through the determination of pH, organic matter, phosphorus, potassium, calcium, magnesium, potential acidity, sum of bases, cation exchange capacity and base saturation. The composition of soil particles was also checked; that is, the texture, step made in the terrestrial ecosystems laboratory of the Department of Ecology of USP and in the soil laboratory of ESALQ. Another important factor also studied was to show the variations in the vegetation cover in the region as a function of soil moisture in the different existing physiographic environments. Another study carried out was a comparison between the average soil moisture data with precipitation data from three locations with very different phytophysiognomies. The soils found in this part of Bahia can be classified into 5 classes, with a predominance of oxisols. All of these classes have a great diversity of physical and chemical properties, as can be seen in photographs and in particle size and fertility analyzes. The deepest soils are located in the Central Pediplano of Chapada Diamantina where the dirty field, the clean field, the executioner and the semideciduous seasonal forest (Capão) are located, and the shallower soils were found in the rupestrian field, dry thorny forest, and savanna fields, the latter located on a hillside. As for the variations in water in the region's soil, the data indicate that there were large spatial variations in humidity in both the rainy and dry periods.

Keywords: Bahia, Chapada diamantina, phytophysiognomies, soils.

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Authors: Renata Martins Pacheco, João Claro

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Wildfires are becoming an increasing concern worldwide, causing substantial social, economic, and environmental disruptions. This situation is especially relevant in Mediterranean-climate regions, present in all the five continents of the world, in which fire is not only a natural component of the environment but also perhaps one of the most important evolutionary forces. The rise in wildfire occurrences and their associated impacts suggests the need for identifying knowledge gaps and enhancing the basis of scientific evidence on how managers and policymakers may act effectively to address them. Considering that the main goal of a systematic map is to collate and catalog a body of evidence to describe the state of knowledge for a specific topic, it is a suitable approach to be used for this purpose. In this context, the aim of this study is to systematically map the research trends in wildfire management practices in Mediterranean-climate regions. A total of 201 wildfire management studies were analyzed and systematically mapped in terms of their: Year of publication; Place of study; Scientific outlet; Research area (Web of Science) or Research field (Scopus); Wildfire phase; Central research topic; Main objective of the study; Research methods; and Main conclusions or contributions. The results indicate that there is an increasing number of studies being developed on the topic (most from the last 10 years), but more than half of them are conducted in few Mediterranean countries (60% of the analyzed studies were conducted in Spain, Portugal, Greece, Italy or France), and more than 50% are focused on pre-fire issues, such as prevention and fuel management. In contrast, only 12% of the studies focused on “Economic modeling” or “Human factors and issues,” which suggests that the triple bottom line of the sustainability argument (social, environmental, and economic) is not being fully addressed by fire management research. More than one-fourth of the studies had their objective related to testing new approaches in fire or forest management, suggesting that new knowledge is being produced on the field. Nevertheless, the results indicate that most studies (about 84%) employed quantitative research methods, and only 3% of the studies used research methods that tackled social issues or addressed expert and practitioner’s knowledge. Perhaps this lack of multidisciplinary studies is one of the factors hindering more progress from being made in terms of reducing wildfire occurrences and their impacts.

Keywords: Management Mediterranean-climate regions, policy, wildfire.

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Authors: Dosun Shin, Assegid Kidane, Pavan Turaga

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This research project brings together experts in multiple disciplines to bring product design, sensor design, algorithms, and health intervention studies to develop a product and system that helps reduce the amount of time sitting at the workplace. This paper illustrates ongoing improvements to prototypes the research team developed in initial research; including working prototypes with a software application, which were developed and demonstrated for users. Additional modifications were made to improve functionality, aesthetics, and ease of use, which will be discussed in this paper. Extending on the foundations created in the initial phase, our approach sought to further improve the product by conducting additional human factor research, studying deficiencies in competitive products, testing various materials/forms, developing working prototypes, and obtaining feedback from additional potential users. The solution consisted of an aesthetically pleasing seat cover cushion that easily attaches to common office chairs found in most workplaces, ensuring that a wide variety of people can use the product. The product discreetly contains sensors that track when the user sits on their chair, sending information to a phone app that triggers reminders for users to stand up and move around after sitting for a set amount of time. This paper also presents the analyzed typical office aesthetics and selected materials, colors, and forms that complimented the working environment. Comfort and ease of use remained a high priority as the design team sought to provide a product and system that integrated into the workplace. As the research team continues to test, improve, and implement this solution for the sedentary workplace, the team seeks to create a viable product that acts as an impetus for a more active workday and lifestyle, further decreasing the proliferation of chronic disease and health issues for sedentary working people. This paper illustrates in detail the processes of engineering, product design, methodology, and testing results.

Keywords: Anti-sedentary work behavior, new product development, sensor design, health intervention studies.

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Authors: L. R. Ferreira, R. Biscaro, C. C. Danziger, C. M. Galhardi, L. C. Biscaro, R. C. Biscaro, I. S. Vasconcelos, L. C. R. Ferreira, R. Reis, L. H. Oliveira

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Introduction: There is a worldwide trend for the employer to be aware of investing in health promotion that goes beyond occupational hygiene approaches with the implementation of a comprehensive program with integration between occupational health and safety, and social/psychosocial responsibility in the workplace. Work accommodation is a necessity in most companies as it allows the worker to return to its function respecting its physical limitations. This study had the objective to verify if the integration of health and safety in the companies, with the inclusion of the concept of TWH promoted by an occupational health service has impacted in the management of absenteeism of workers in work accommodation. Method: A retrospective and paired cohort study was used, in which the impact of the implementation of the Program for the Health/Safety Integration and Total Worker Health Concept (PHSITWHC) was evaluated using the indices of absenteeism, health attestations, days and hours of sick leave of workers that underwent job accommodation/rehabilitation. This was a cohort study and the data were collected from January to September of 2017, prior to the initiation of the integration program, and compared with the data obtained from January to September of 2018, after the implementation of the program. For the statistical analysis, the student's t-test was used, with statistically significant differences being made at p < 0.05. Results: The results showed a 35% reduction in the number of absenteeism rate in 2018 compared to the same period in 2017. There was also a significant reduction in the total numbers of days of attestations/absences (mean of 2,8) as well as days of attestations, absence and sick leaves (mean of 5,2) in 2018 data after the implementation of PHSITWHC compared to 2017 data, means of 4,3 and 25,1, respectively, prior to the program. Conclusion: It can be concluded that the inclusion of the PHSITWHC was associated with a reduction in the rate of absenteeism of workers that underwent job accommodation. It was observed that, once health and safety were approached and integrated with the inclusion of the TWH concept, it was possible to reduce absenteeism, and improve worker’s quality of life and wellness, and work accommodation management.

Keywords: Absenteeism, health/safety integration, work accommodation management, total worker health.

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Authors: Paola Lecca, Lorenzo Dematte

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Reactiondiffusion systems are mathematical models that describe how the concentration of one or more substances distributed in space changes under the influence of local chemical reactions in which the substances are converted into each other, and diffusion which causes the substances to spread out in space. The classical representation of a reaction-diffusion system is given by semi-linear parabolic partial differential equations, whose general form is ÔêétX(x, t) = DΔX(x, t), where X(x, t) is the state vector, D is the matrix of the diffusion coefficients and Δ is the Laplace operator. If the solute move in an homogeneous system in thermal equilibrium, the diffusion coefficients are constants that do not depend on the local concentration of solvent and of solutes and on local temperature of the medium. In this paper a new stochastic reaction-diffusion model in which the diffusion coefficients are function of the local concentration, viscosity and frictional forces of solvent and solute is presented. Such a model provides a more realistic description of the molecular kinetics in non-homogenoeus and highly structured media as the intra- and inter-cellular spaces. The movement of a molecule A from a region i to a region j of the space is described as a first order reaction Ai k- → Aj , where the rate constant k depends on the diffusion coefficient. Representing the diffusional motion as a chemical reaction allows to assimilate a reaction-diffusion system to a pure reaction system and to simulate it with Gillespie-inspired stochastic simulation algorithms. The stochastic time evolution of the system is given by the occurrence of diffusion events and chemical reaction events. At each time step an event (reaction or diffusion) is selected from a probability distribution of waiting times determined by the specific speed of reaction and diffusion events. Redi is the software tool, developed to implement the model of reaction-diffusion kinetics and dynamics. It is a free software, that can be downloaded from http://www.cosbi.eu. To demonstrate the validity of the new reaction-diffusion model, the simulation results of the chaperone-assisted protein folding in cytoplasm obtained with Redi are reported. This case study is redrawing the attention of the scientific community due to current interests on protein aggregation as a potential cause for neurodegenerative diseases.

Keywords: Reaction-diffusion systems, Fick's law, stochastic simulation algorithm.

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Authors: Elnaz Saeedi, Jamileh Abolaghasemi, Mohsen Nasiri Tousi, Saeedeh Khosravi

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Goals and Objectives: A typical analysis of survival data involves the modeling of time-to-event data, such as the time till death. A frailty model is a random effect model for time-to-event data, where the random effect has a multiplicative influence on the baseline hazard function. This article aims to investigate the use of gamma frailty model with concomitant variable in order to individualize the prognostic factors that influence the liver cirrhosis patients’ survival times. Methods: During the one-year study period (May 2008-May 2009), data have been used from the recorded information of patients with liver cirrhosis who were scheduled for liver transplantation and were followed up for at least seven years in Imam Khomeini Hospital in Iran. In order to determine the effective factors for cirrhotic patients’ survival in the presence of latent variables, the gamma frailty distribution has been applied. In this article, it was considering the parametric model, such as Exponential and Weibull distributions for survival time. Data analysis is performed using R software, and the error level of 0.05 was considered for all tests. Results: 305 patients with liver cirrhosis including 180 (59%) men and 125 (41%) women were studied. The age average of patients was 39.8 years. At the end of the study, 82 (26%) patients died, among them 48 (58%) were men and 34 (42%) women. The main cause of liver cirrhosis was found hepatitis 'B' with 23%, followed by cryptogenic with 22.6% were identified as the second factor. Generally, 7-year’s survival was 28.44 months, for dead patients and for censoring was 19.33 and 31.79 months, respectively. Using multi-parametric survival models of progressive and regressive, Exponential and Weibull models with regard to the gamma frailty distribution were fitted to the cirrhosis data. In both models, factors including, age, bilirubin serum, albumin serum, and encephalopathy had a significant effect on survival time of cirrhotic patients. Conclusion: To investigate the effective factors for the time of patients’ death with liver cirrhosis in the presence of latent variables, gamma frailty model with parametric distributions seems desirable.

Keywords: Frailty model, latent variables, liver cirrhosis, parametric distribution.

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Authors: Adel S. Alanazi

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The transition of a student with a disability from school to work is the most crucial phase while moving from the stage of adolescence into early adulthood. In this process, young individuals face various difficulties and challenges in order to accomplish the next venture of life successfully. In this respect, this paper aims to examine the challenges encountered by the individuals with intellectual disabilities in transition to work in Saudi Arabia. For this purpose, this study has undertaken a qualitative research-based methodology; wherein interpretivist philosophy has been followed along with inductive approach and exploratory research design. The data for the research has been gathered with the help of semi-structured interviews, whose findings are analysed with the help of thematic analysis. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with parents of persons with intellectual disabilities, officials, supervisors and specialists of two vocational rehabilitation centres providing training to intellectually disabled students, in addition to that, directors of companies and websites in hiring those individuals. The total number of respondents for the interview was 15. The purposive sampling method was used to select the respondents for the interview. This sampling method is a non-probability sampling method which draws respondents from a known population and allows flexibility and suitability in selecting the participants for the study. The findings gathered from the interview revealed that the lack of awareness among their parents regarding the rights of their children who are intellectually disabled; the lack of adequate communication and coordination between various entities; concerns regarding their training and subsequent employment are the key difficulties experienced by the individuals with intellectual disabilities. Training in programmes such as bookbinding, carpentry, computing, agriculture, electricity and telephone exchange operations were involved as key training programmes. The findings of this study also revealed that information technology and media were playing a significant role in smoothing the transition to employment of individuals with intellectual disabilities. Furthermore, religious and cultural attitudes have been identified to be restricted for people with such disabilities in seeking advantages from job opportunities. On the basis of these findings, it can be implied that the information gathered through this study will serve to be highly beneficial for Saudi Arabian schools/ rehabilitation centres for individuals with intellectual disability to facilitate them in overcoming the problems they encounter during the transition to work.

Keywords: Intellectual disability, transition services, rehabilitation centre.

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Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: Actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility.

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