Search results for: predictive analytics
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 337

Search results for: predictive analytics

247 Predictive Analytics of Student Performance Determinants in Education

Authors: Mahtab Davari, Charles Edward Okon, Somayeh Aghanavesi

Abstract:

Every institute of learning is usually interested in the performance of enrolled students. The level of these performances determines the approach an institute of study may adopt in rendering academic services. The focus of this paper is to evaluate students' academic performance in given courses of study using machine learning methods. This study evaluated various supervised machine learning classification algorithms such as Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest, Decision Tree, K-Nearest Neighbors, Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), and Quadratic Discriminant Analysis, using selected features to predict study performance. The accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score obtained from a 5-Fold Cross-Validation were used to determine the best classification algorithm to predict students’ performances. SVM (using a linear kernel), LDA, and LR were identified as the best-performing machine learning methods. Also, using the LR model, this study identified students' educational habits such as reading and paying attention in class as strong determinants for a student to have an above-average performance. Other important features include the academic history of the student and work. Demographic factors such as age, gender, high school graduation, etc., had no significant effect on a student's performance.

Keywords: Student performance, supervised machine learning, prediction, classification, cross-validation.

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246 Combined Fuzzy and Predictive Controller for Unity Power Factor Converter

Authors: Abdelhalim Kessal

Abstract:

This paper treats a design of combined control of a single phase power factor correction (PFC). The strategy of the proposed control is based on two parts, the first, for the outer loop (DC output regulated voltage), and the second govern the input current of the converter in order to achieve a sinusoidal form in phase with the grid voltage. Two kinds of regulators are used, Fuzzy controller for the outer loop and predictive controller for the inner loop. The controllers are verified and discussed through simulation under MATLAB/Simulink platform. Also an experimental confirmation is applied. Results present a high dynamic performance under various parameters changes.

Keywords: Boost converter, harmonic distortion, Fuzzy, prediction, unity power factor.

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245 MP-SMC-I Method for Slip Suppression of Electric Vehicles under Braking

Authors: Tohru Kawabe

Abstract:

In this paper, a new SMC (Sliding Mode Control) method with MP (Model Predictive Control) integral action for the slip suppression of EV (Electric Vehicle) under braking is proposed. The proposed method introduce the integral term with standard SMC gain , where the integral gain is optimized for each control period by the MPC algorithms. The aim of this method is to improve the safety and the stability of EVs under braking by controlling the wheel slip ratio. There also include numerical simulation results to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method.

Keywords: Sliding Mode Control, Model Predictive Control, Integral Action, Electric Vehicle, Slip suppression.

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244 IoT Device Cost Effective Storage Architecture and Real-Time Data Analysis/Data Privacy Framework

Authors: Femi Elegbeleye, Seani Rananga

Abstract:

This paper focused on cost effective storage architecture using fog and cloud data storage gateway, and presented the design of the framework for the data privacy model and data analytics framework on a real-time analysis when using machine learning method. The paper began with the system analysis, system architecture and its component design, as well as the overall system operations. Several results obtained from this study on data privacy models show that when two or more data privacy models are integrated via a fog storage gateway, we often have more secure data. Our main focus in the study is to design a framework for the data privacy model, data storage, and real-time analytics. This paper also shows the major system components and their framework specification. And lastly, the overall research system architecture was shown, including its structure, and its interrelationships.

Keywords: IoT, fog storage, cloud storage, data analysis, data privacy.

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243 Virtual Learning Process Environment: Cohort Analytics for Learning and Learning Processes

Authors: Ayodeji Adesina, Derek Molloy

Abstract:

Traditional higher-education classrooms allow lecturers to observe students- behaviours and responses to a particular pedagogy during learning in a way that can influence changes to the pedagogical approach. Within current e-learning systems it is difficult to perform continuous analysis of the cohort-s behavioural tendency, making real-time pedagogical decisions difficult. This paper presents a Virtual Learning Process Environment (VLPE) based on the Business Process Management (BPM) conceptual framework. Within the VLPE, course designers can model various education pedagogies in the form of learning process workflows using an intuitive flow diagram interface. These diagrams are used to visually track the learning progresses of a cohort of students. This helps assess the effectiveness of the chosen pedagogy, providing the information required to improve course design. A case scenario of a cohort of students is presented and quantitative statistical analysis of their learning process performance is gathered and displayed in realtime using dashboards.

Keywords: Business process management, cohort analytics, learning processes, virtual learning environment.

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242 DIVAD: A Dynamic and Interactive Visual Analytical Dashboard for Exploring and Analyzing Transport Data

Authors: Tin Seong Kam, Ketan Barshikar, Shaun Tan

Abstract:

The advances in location-based data collection technologies such as GPS, RFID etc. and the rapid reduction of their costs provide us with a huge and continuously increasing amount of data about movement of vehicles, people and goods in an urban area. This explosive growth of geospatially-referenced data has far outpaced the planner-s ability to utilize and transform the data into insightful information thus creating an adverse impact on the return on the investment made to collect and manage this data. Addressing this pressing need, we designed and developed DIVAD, a dynamic and interactive visual analytics dashboard to allow city planners to explore and analyze city-s transportation data to gain valuable insights about city-s traffic flow and transportation requirements. We demonstrate the potential of DIVAD through the use of interactive choropleth and hexagon binning maps to explore and analyze large taxi-transportation data of Singapore for different geographic and time zones.

Keywords: Geographic Information System (GIS), MovementData, GeoVisual Analytics, Urban Planning.

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241 The Story of Mergers and Acquisitions: Using Narrative Theory to Understand the Uncertainty of Organizational Change

Authors: Philip T. Roundy

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This paper examines the influence of communication form on employee uncertainty during mergers and acquisitions (M&As). Specifically, the author uses narrative theory to analyze how narrative organizational communication affects the three components of uncertainty – decreased predictive, explanatory, and descriptive ability. It is hypothesized that employees whose organizations use narrative M&A communication will have greater predictive, explanatory, and descriptive abilities than employees of organizations using non-narrative M&A communication. This paper contributes to the stream of research examining uncertainty during mergers and acquisitions and argues that narratives are an effective means of managing uncertainty in the mergers and acquisitions context.

Keywords: Narrative Theory, Mergers and Acquisitions, Employee Uncertainty.

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240 Data Analysis Techniques for Predictive Maintenance on Fleet of Heavy-Duty Vehicles

Authors: Antonis Sideris, Elias Chlis Kalogeropoulos, Konstantia Moirogiorgou

Abstract:

The present study proposes a methodology for the efficient daily management of fleet vehicles and construction machinery. The application covers the area of remote monitoring of heavy-duty vehicles operation parameters, where specific sensor data are stored and examined in order to provide information about the vehicle’s health. The vehicle diagnostics allow the user to inspect whether maintenance tasks need to be performed before a fault occurs. A properly designed machine learning model is proposed for the detection of two different types of faults through classification. Cross validation is used and the accuracy of the trained model is checked with the confusion matrix.

Keywords: Fault detection, feature selection, machine learning, predictive maintenance.

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239 Systematic Mapping Study of Digitization and Analysis of Manufacturing Data

Authors: R. Clancy, M. Ahern, D. O’Sullivan, K. Bruton

Abstract:

The manufacturing industry is currently undergoing a digital transformation as part of the mega-trend Industry 4.0. As part of this phase of the industrial revolution, traditional manufacturing processes are being combined with digital technologies to achieve smarter and more efficient production. To successfully digitally transform a manufacturing facility, the processes must first be digitized. This is the conversion of information from an analogue format to a digital format. The objective of this study was to explore the research area of digitizing manufacturing data as part of the worldwide paradigm, Industry 4.0. The formal methodology of a systematic mapping study was utilized to capture a representative sample of the research area and assess its current state. Specific research questions were defined to assess the key benefits and limitations associated with the digitization of manufacturing data. Research papers were classified according to the type of research and type of contribution to the research area. Upon analyzing 54 papers identified in this area, it was noted that 23 of the papers originated in Germany. This is an unsurprising finding as Industry 4.0 is originally a German strategy with supporting strong policy instruments being utilized in Germany to support its implementation. It was also found that the Fraunhofer Institute for Mechatronic Systems Design, in collaboration with the University of Paderborn in Germany, was the most frequent contributing Institution of the research papers with three papers published. The literature suggested future research directions and highlighted one specific gap in the area. There exists an unresolved gap between the data science experts and the manufacturing process experts in the industry. The data analytics expertise is not useful unless the manufacturing process information is utilized. A legitimate understanding of the data is crucial to perform accurate analytics and gain true, valuable insights into the manufacturing process. There lies a gap between the manufacturing operations and the information technology/data analytics departments within enterprises, which was borne out by the results of many of the case studies reviewed as part of this work. To test the concept of this gap existing, the researcher initiated an industrial case study in which they embedded themselves between the subject matter expert of the manufacturing process and the data scientist. Of the papers resulting from the systematic mapping study, 12 of the papers contributed a framework, another 12 of the papers were based on a case study, and 11 of the papers focused on theory. However, there were only three papers that contributed a methodology. This provides further evidence for the need for an industry-focused methodology for digitizing and analyzing manufacturing data, which will be developed in future research.

Keywords: Analytics, digitization, industry 4.0, manufacturing.

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238 Periodic Control of a Reverse Osmosis Water Desalination Unit

Authors: Ali Emad

Abstract:

Enhancement of the performance of a reverse osmosis (RO) unit through periodic control is studied. The periodic control manipulates the feed pressure and flow rate of the RO unit. To ensure the periodic behavior of the inputs, the manipulated variables (MV) are transformed into the form of sinusoidal functions. In this case, the amplitude and period of the sinusoidal functions become the surrogate MV and are thus regulated via nonlinear model predictive control algorithm. The simulation results indicated that the control system can generate cyclic inputs necessary to enhance the closedloop performance in the sense of increasing the permeate production and lowering the salt concentration. The proposed control system can attain its objective with arbitrary set point for the controlled outputs. Successful results were also obtained in the presence of modeling errors.

Keywords: Reverse osmosis, water desalination, periodic control, model predictive control.

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237 A New Approach to ECG Biometric Systems: A Comparitive Study between LPC and WPD Systems

Authors: Justin Leo Cheang Loong, Khazaimatol S Subari, Rosli Besar, Muhammad Kamil Abdullah

Abstract:

In this paper, a novel method for a biometric system based on the ECG signal is proposed, using spectral coefficients computed through linear predictive coding (LPC). ECG biometric systems have traditionally incorporated characteristics of fiducial points of the ECG signal as the feature set. These systems have been shown to contain loopholes and thus a non-fiducial system allows for tighter security. In the proposed system, incorporating non-fiducial features from the LPC spectrum produced a segment and subject recognition rate of 99.52% and 100% respectively. The recognition rates outperformed the biometric system that is based on the wavelet packet decomposition (WPD) algorithm in terms of recognition rates and computation time. This allows for LPC to be used in a practical ECG biometric system that requires fast, stringent and accurate recognition.

Keywords: biometric, ecg, linear predictive coding, wavelet packet decomposition

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236 Model Discovery and Validation for the Qsar Problem using Association Rule Mining

Authors: Luminita Dumitriu, Cristina Segal, Marian Craciun, Adina Cocu, Lucian P. Georgescu

Abstract:

There are several approaches in trying to solve the Quantitative 1Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) problem. These approaches are based either on statistical methods or on predictive data mining. Among the statistical methods, one should consider regression analysis, pattern recognition (such as cluster analysis, factor analysis and principal components analysis) or partial least squares. Predictive data mining techniques use either neural networks, or genetic programming, or neuro-fuzzy knowledge. These approaches have a low explanatory capability or non at all. This paper attempts to establish a new approach in solving QSAR problems using descriptive data mining. This way, the relationship between the chemical properties and the activity of a substance would be comprehensibly modeled.

Keywords: association rules, classification, data mining, Quantitative Structure - Activity Relationship.

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235 A Study of Relationship between Mountaineering Participation Motivation and Risk Perception

Authors: Yen-Chieh Wen, Ching-Hui Lin

Abstract:

The main purpose of this study is to analyze climbers involved in motivation and risk perception and analysis of the predictive ability of the risk perception "mountaineering" involved in motivation. This study used questionnaires, to have to climb the 3000m high mountain in Taiwan climbers object to carry out an investigation in order to non-random sampling, a total of 231 valid questionnaires were. After statistical analysis, the study found that: 1. Climbers the highest climbers involved in motivation "to enjoy the natural beauty of the fun. 2 climbers for climbers "risk perception" the highest: the natural environment of risk. 3. Climbers “seeking adventure stimulate", “competence achievement" motivation highly predictive of risk perception. Based on these findings, this study not only practices the recommendations of the outdoor leisure industry, and also related research proposals for future researchers.

Keywords: Mountaineering, motivation, risk perception, decision-making.

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234 State Estimation Based on Unscented Kalman Filter for Burgers’ Equation

Authors: Takashi Shimizu, Tomoaki Hashimoto

Abstract:

Controlling the flow of fluids is a challenging problem that arises in many fields. Burgers’ equation is a fundamental equation for several flow phenomena such as traffic, shock waves, and turbulence. The optimal feedback control method, so-called model predictive control, has been proposed for Burgers’ equation. However, the model predictive control method is inapplicable to systems whose all state variables are not exactly known. In practical point of view, it is unusual that all the state variables of systems are exactly known, because the state variables of systems are measured through output sensors and limited parts of them can be only available. In fact, it is usual that flow velocities of fluid systems cannot be measured for all spatial domains. Hence, any practical feedback controller for fluid systems must incorporate some type of state estimator. To apply the model predictive control to the fluid systems described by Burgers’ equation, it is needed to establish a state estimation method for Burgers’ equation with limited measurable state variables. To this purpose, we apply unscented Kalman filter for estimating the state variables of fluid systems described by Burgers’ equation. The objective of this study is to establish a state estimation method based on unscented Kalman filter for Burgers’ equation. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by numerical simulations.

Keywords: State estimation, fluid systems, observer systems, unscented Kalman filter.

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233 Aggregate Angularity on the Permanent Deformation Zones of Hot Mix Asphalt

Authors: Lee P. Leon, Raymond Charles

Abstract:

This paper presents a method of evaluating the effect of aggregate angularity on hot mix asphalt (HMA) properties and its relationship to the Permanent Deformation resistance. The research concluded that aggregate particle angularity had a significant effect on the Permanent Deformation performance, and also that with an increase in coarse aggregate angularity there was an increase in the resistance of mixes to Permanent Deformation. A comparison between the measured data and predictive data of permanent deformation predictive models showed the limits of existing prediction models. The numerical analysis described the permanent deformation zones and concluded that angularity has an effect of the onset of these zones. Prediction of permanent deformation help road agencies and by extension economists and engineers determine the best approach for maintenance, rehabilitation, and new construction works of the road infrastructure.

Keywords: Aggregate angularity, asphalt concrete, permanent deformation, rutting prediction.

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232 Predictive Maintenance of Industrial Shredders: Efficient Operation through Real-Time Monitoring Using Statistical Machine Learning

Authors: Federico Pittino, Dominik Holzmann, Krithika Sayar-Chand, Stefan Moser, Sebastian Pliessnig, Thomas Arnold

Abstract:

The shredding of waste materials is a key step in the recycling process towards circular economy. Industrial shredders for waste processing operate in very harsh operating conditions, leading to the need of frequent maintenance of critical components. The maintenance optimization is particularly important also to increase the machine’s efficiency, thereby reducing the operational costs. In this work, a monitoring system has been developed and deployed on an industrial shredder located at a waste recycling plant in Austria. The machine has been monitored for several months and methods for predictive maintenance have been developed for two key components: the cutting knives and the drive belt. The large amount of collected data is leveraged by statistical machine learning techniques, thereby not requiring a very detailed knowledge of the machine or its live operating conditions. The results show that, despite the wide range of operating conditions, a reliable estimate of the optimal time for maintenance can be derived. Moreover, the trade-off between the cost of maintenance and the increase in power consumption due to the wear state of the monitored components of the machine is investigated. This work proves the benefits of real-time monitoring system for efficient operation of industrial shredders.

Keywords: predictive maintenance, circular economy, industrial shredder, cost optimization, statistical machine learning

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231 MPC of Single Phase Inverter for PV System

Authors: Irtaza M. Syed, Kaamran Raahemifar

Abstract:

This paper presents a model predictive control (MPC) of a utility interactive (UI) single phase inverter (SPI) for a photovoltaic (PV) system at residential/distribution level. The proposed model uses single-phase phase locked loop (PLL) to synchronize SPI with the grid and performs MPC control in a dq reference frame. SPI model consists of boost converter (BC), maximum power point tracking (MPPT) control, and a full bridge (FB) voltage source inverter (VSI). No PI regulators to tune and carrier and modulating waves are required to produce switching sequence. Instead, the operational model of VSI is used to synthesize sinusoidal current and track the reference. Model is validated using a three kW PV system at the input of UI-SPI in Matlab/Simulink. Implementation and results demonstrate simplicity and accuracy, as well as reliability of the model.

Keywords: Matlab/Simulink, Model Predictive Control, Phase Locked Loop, Single Phase Inverter, Voltage Source Inverter.

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230 Contact Drying Simulation of Particulate Materials: A Comprehensive Approach

Authors: Marco Intelvi, Apolinar Picado, Joaquín Martínez

Abstract:

In this work, simulation algorithms for contact drying of agitated particulate materials under vacuum and at atmospheric pressure were developed. The implementation of algorithms gives a predictive estimation of drying rate curves and bulk bed temperature during contact drying. The calculations are based on the penetration model to describe the drying process, where all process parameters such as heat and mass transfer coefficients, effective bed properties, gas and liquid phase properties are estimated with proper correlations. Simulation results were compared with experimental data from the literature. In both cases, simulation results were in good agreement with experimental data. Few deviations were identified and the limitations of the predictive capabilities of the models are discussed. The programs give a good insight of the drying behaviour of the analysed powders.

Keywords: Agitated bed, Atmospheric pressure, Penetrationmodel, Vacuum

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229 Gaussian Process Model Identification Using Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm and Its Application to Modeling of Power Systems

Authors: Tomohiro Hachino, Hitoshi Takata, Shigeru Nakayama, Ichiro Iimura, Seiji Fukushima, Yasutaka Igarashi

Abstract:

This paper presents a nonparametric identification of continuous-time nonlinear systems by using a Gaussian process (GP) model. The GP prior model is trained by artificial bee colony algorithm. The nonlinear function of the objective system is estimated as the predictive mean function of the GP, and the confidence measure of the estimated nonlinear function is given by the predictive covariance of the GP. The proposed identification method is applied to modeling of a simplified electric power system. Simulation results are shown to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Artificial bee colony algorithm, Gaussian process model, identification, nonlinear system, electric power system.

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228 Flight Control of Vectored Thrust Aerial Vehicle by Neural Network Predictive Controller for Enhanced Situational Awareness

Authors: Igor Astrov, Mikhail Pikkov, Rein Paluoja

Abstract:

This paper focuses on a critical component of the situational awareness (SA), the control of autonomous vertical flight for vectored thrust aerial vehicle (VTAV). With the SA strategy, we proposed a flight control procedure to address the dynamics variation and performance requirement difference of flight trajectory for an unmanned helicopter model with vectored thrust configuration. This control strategy for chosen model of VTAV has been verified by simulation of take-off and forward maneuvers using software package Simulink and demonstrated good performance for fast stabilization of motors, consequently, fast SA with economy in energy can be asserted during search-and-rescue operations.

Keywords: Neural network predictive controller, situational awareness, vectored thrust aerial vehicle.

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227 Identification of a PWA Model of a Batch Reactor for Model Predictive Control

Authors: Gorazd Karer, Igor Skrjanc, Borut Zupancic

Abstract:

The complex hybrid and nonlinear nature of many processes that are met in practice causes problems with both structure modelling and parameter identification; therefore, obtaining a model that is suitable for MPC is often a difficult task. The basic idea of this paper is to present an identification method for a piecewise affine (PWA) model based on a fuzzy clustering algorithm. First we introduce the PWA model. Next, we tackle the identification method. We treat the fuzzy clustering algorithm, deal with the projections of the fuzzy clusters into the input space of the PWA model and explain the estimation of the parameters of the PWA model by means of a modified least-squares method. Furthermore, we verify the usability of the proposed identification approach on a hybrid nonlinear batch reactor example. The result suggest that the batch reactor can be efficiently identified and thus formulated as a PWA model, which can eventually be used for model predictive control purposes.

Keywords: Batch reactor, fuzzy clustering, hybrid systems, identification, nonlinear systems, PWA systems.

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226 Predictive Clustering Hybrid Regression(pCHR) Approach and Its Application to Sucrose-Based Biohydrogen Production

Authors: Nikhil, Ari Visa, Chin-Chao Chen, Chiu-Yue Lin, Jaakko A. Puhakka, Olli Yli-Harja

Abstract:

A predictive clustering hybrid regression (pCHR) approach was developed and evaluated using dataset from H2- producing sucrose-based bioreactor operated for 15 months. The aim was to model and predict the H2-production rate using information available about envirome and metabolome of the bioprocess. Selforganizing maps (SOM) and Sammon map were used to visualize the dataset and to identify main metabolic patterns and clusters in bioprocess data. Three metabolic clusters: acetate coupled with other metabolites, butyrate only, and transition phases were detected. The developed pCHR model combines principles of k-means clustering, kNN classification and regression techniques. The model performed well in modeling and predicting the H2-production rate with mean square error values of 0.0014 and 0.0032, respectively.

Keywords: Biohydrogen, bioprocess modeling, clusteringhybrid regression.

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225 New Multi-Solid Thermodynamic Model for the Prediction of Wax Formation

Authors: Ehsan Ghanaei, Feridun Esmaeilzadeh, Jamshid Fathi Kaljahi

Abstract:

In the previous multi-solid models,¤ò approach is used for the calculation of fugacity in the liquid phase. For the first time, in the proposed multi-solid thermodynamic model,γ approach has been used for calculation of fugacity in the liquid mixture. Therefore, some activity coefficient models have been studied that the results show that the predictive Wilson model is more appropriate than others. The results demonstrate γ approach using the predictive Wilson model is in more agreement with experimental data than the previous multi-solid models. Also, by this method, generates a new approach for presenting stability analysis in phase equilibrium calculations. Meanwhile, the run time in γ approach is less than the previous methods used ¤ò approach. The results of the new model present 0.75 AAD % (Average Absolute Deviation) from the experimental data which is less than the results error of the previous multi-solid models obviously.

Keywords: Multi-solid thermodynamic model, PredictiveWilson model, Wax formation.

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224 Correlation-based Feature Selection using Ant Colony Optimization

Authors: M. Sadeghzadeh, M. Teshnehlab

Abstract:

Feature selection has recently been the subject of intensive research in data mining, specially for datasets with a large number of attributes. Recent work has shown that feature selection can have a positive effect on the performance of machine learning algorithms. The success of many learning algorithms in their attempts to construct models of data, hinges on the reliable identification of a small set of highly predictive attributes. The inclusion of irrelevant, redundant and noisy attributes in the model building process phase can result in poor predictive performance and increased computation. In this paper, a novel feature search procedure that utilizes the Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) is presented. The ACO is a metaheuristic inspired by the behavior of real ants in their search for the shortest paths to food sources. It looks for optimal solutions by considering both local heuristics and previous knowledge. When applied to two different classification problems, the proposed algorithm achieved very promising results.

Keywords: Ant colony optimization, Classification, Datamining, Feature selection.

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223 A Statistical Prediction of Likely Distress in Nigeria Banking Sector Using a Neural Network Approach

Authors: D. A. Farinde

Abstract:

One of the most significant threats to the economy of a nation is the bankruptcy of its banks. This study evaluates the susceptibility of Nigerian banks to failure with a view to identifying ratios and financial data that are sensitive to solvency of the bank. Further, a predictive model is generated to guide all stakeholders in the industry. Thirty quoted banks that had published Annual Reports for the year preceding the consolidation i.e. year 2004 were selected. They were examined for distress using the Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network Analysis. The model was used to analyze further reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria using published Annual Reports of twenty quoted banks for the year 2008 and 2011. The model can thus be used for future prediction of failure in the Nigerian banking system.

Keywords: Bank, Bankruptcy, Financial Ratios, Neural Network, Multilayer Perceptron, Predictive Model

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222 Modeling and Control Design of a Centralized Adaptive Cruise Control System

Authors: Markus Mazzola, Gunther Schaaf

Abstract:

A vehicle driving with an Adaptive Cruise Control System (ACC) is usually controlled decentrally, based on the information of radar systems and in some publications based on C2X-Communication (CACC) to guarantee stable platoons. In this paper we present a Model Predictive Control (MPC) design of a centralized, server-based ACC-System, whereby the vehicular platoon is modeled and controlled as a whole. It is then proven that the proposed MPC design guarantees asymptotic stability and hence string stability of the platoon. The Networked MPC design is chosen to be able to integrate system constraints optimally as well as to reduce the effects of communication delay and packet loss. The performance of the proposed controller is then simulated and analyzed in an LTE communication scenario using the LTE/EPC Network Simulator LENA, which is based on the ns-3 network simulator.

Keywords: Adaptive Cruise Control, Centralized Server, Networked Model Predictive Control, String Stability.

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221 Modelling of Multi-Agent Systems for the Scheduling of Multi-EV Charging from Power Limited Sources

Authors: Manan’Iarivo Rasolonjanahary, Chris Bingham, Nigel Schofield, Masoud Bazargan

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This paper presents the research and application of model predictive scheduled charging of electric vehicles (EV) subject to limited available power resource. To focus on algorithm and operational characteristics, the EV interface to the source is modelled as a battery state equation during the charging operation. The researched methods allow for the priority scheduling of EV charging in a multi-vehicle regime and when subject to limited source power availability. Priority attribution for each connected EV is described. The validity of the developed methodology is shown through the simulation of different scenarios of charging operation of multiple connected EVs including non-scheduled and scheduled operation with various numbers of vehicles. Performance of the developed algorithms is also reported with the recommendation of the choice of suitable parameters.

Keywords: Model predictive control, non-scheduled, power limited sources, scheduled and stop-start battery charging.

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220 Tools for Analysis and Optimization of Standalone Green Microgrids

Authors: William Anderson, Kyle Kobold, Oleg Yakimenko

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Green microgrids using mostly renewable energy (RE) for generation, are complex systems with inherent nonlinear dynamics. Among a variety of different optimization tools there are only a few ones that adequately consider this complexity. This paper evaluates applicability of two somewhat similar optimization tools tailored for standalone RE microgrids and also assesses a machine learning tool for performance prediction that can enhance the reliability of any chosen optimization tool. It shows that one of these microgrid optimization tools has certain advantages over another and presents a detailed routine of preparing input data to simulate RE microgrid behavior. The paper also shows how neural-network-based predictive modeling can be used to validate and forecast solar power generation based on weather time series data, which improves the overall quality of standalone RE microgrid analysis.

Keywords: Microgrid, renewable energy, complex systems, optimization, predictive modeling, neural networks.

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219 Concepts Extraction from Discharge Notes using Association Rule Mining

Authors: Basak Oguz Yolcular

Abstract:

A large amount of valuable information is available in plain text clinical reports. New techniques and technologies are applied to extract information from these reports. In this study, we developed a domain based software system to transform 600 Otorhinolaryngology discharge notes to a structured form for extracting clinical data from the discharge notes. In order to decrease the system process time discharge notes were transformed into a data table after preprocessing. Several word lists were constituted to identify common section in the discharge notes, including patient history, age, problems, and diagnosis etc. N-gram method was used for discovering terms co-Occurrences within each section. Using this method a dataset of concept candidates has been generated for the validation step, and then Predictive Apriori algorithm for Association Rule Mining (ARM) was applied to validate candidate concepts.

Keywords: association rule mining, otorhinolaryngology, predictive apriori, text mining

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218 Design of an Stable GPC for Nonminimum Phase LTI Systems

Authors: Mahdi Yaghobi, Mohammad Haeri

Abstract:

The current methods of predictive controllers are utilized for those processes in which the rate of output variations is not high. For such processes, therefore, stability can be achieved by implementing the constrained predictive controller or applying infinite prediction horizon. When the rate of the output growth is high (e.g. for unstable nonminimum phase process) the stabilization seems to be problematic. In order to avoid this, it is suggested to change the method in the way that: first, the prediction error growth should be decreased at the early stage of the prediction horizon, and second, the rate of the error variation should be penalized. The growth of the error is decreased through adjusting its weighting coefficients in the cost function. Reduction in the error variation is possible by adding the first order derivate of the error into the cost function. By studying different examples it is shown that using these two remedies together, the closed-loop stability of unstable nonminimum phase process can be achieved.

Keywords: GPC, Stability, Varying Weighting Coefficients.

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