Search results for: prediction error bias correction.

Authors: Dorota Witkowska, Paweł Gosek, Lukasz Swiecicki, Wojciech Jernajczyk, Bruce J. West, Miroslaw Latka

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In clinical practice, the selection of an antidepressant often degrades to lengthy trial-and-error. In this work we employ a normalized wavelet power of alpha waves as a biomarker of antidepressant treatment response. This novel EEG metric takes into account both non-stationarity and intersubject variability of alpha waves. We recorded resting, 19-channel EEG (closed eyes) in 22 inpatients suffering from unipolar (UD, n=10) or bipolar (BD, n=12) depression. The EEG measurement was done at the end of the short washout period which followed previously unsuccessful pharmacotherapy. The normalized alpha wavelet power of 11 responders was markedly different than that of 11 nonresponders at several, mostly temporoparietal sites. Using the prediction of treatment response based on the normalized alpha wavelet power, we achieved 81.8% sensitivity and 81.8% specificity for channel T4.

Keywords: Alpha waves, antidepressant, treatment outcome, wavelet.

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Authors: A. Suleng, T. Jelstad Olsen, J. Šindler, P. Bárta

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A dead leg is a typical subsea production system component. CFD is required to model heat transfer within the dead leg. Unfortunately its solution is time demanding and thus not suitable for fast prediction or repeated simulations. Therefore there is a need to create a thermal FEA model, mimicking the heat flows and temperatures seen in CFD cool down simulations. This paper describes the conventional way of tuning and a new automated way using parametric model order reduction (PMOR) together with an optimization algorithm. The tuned FE analyses replicate the steady state CFD parameters within a maximum error in heat flow of 6 % and 3 % using manual and PMOR method respectively. During cool down, the relative error of the tuned FEA models with respect to temperature is below 5% comparing to the CFD. In addition, the PMOR method obtained the correct FEA setup five times faster than the manually tuned FEA.

Keywords: CFD, convective heat, FEA, model tuning, subseaproduction

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Authors: K.M.Goh, M.M.Mokji, S.A.R. Abu-Bakar

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Speeded-Up Robust Feature (SURF) is commonly used for feature matching in stereovision because of their robustness towards scale changes and rotational changes. However, SURF feature cannot cope with large viewpoint changes or skew distortion. This paper introduces a method which can help to improve the wide baseline-s matching performance in term of accuracy by rectifying the image using two vanishing points. Simplified orientation correction was used to remove the false matching..

Keywords: Affine, orientation, projective, SURF.

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Authors: Jinho Kim, Dongik Shin, Deokwon Yun, Changsoo Han

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Rotating stages in semiconductor, display industry and many other fields require challenging accuracy to perform their functions properly. Especially, Axis of rotation error on rotary system is significant; such as the spindle error motion of the aligner, wire bonder and inspector machine which result in the poor state of manufactured goods. To evaluate and improve the performance of such precision rotary stage, unessential movements on the other 5 degrees of freedom of the rotary stage must be measured and analyzed. In this paper, we have measured the three translations and two tilt motions of a rotating stage with high precision capacitive sensors. To obtain the radial error motion from T.I.R (Total Indicated Reading) of radial direction, we have used Donaldson's reversal technique. And the axial components of the spindle tilt error motion can be obtained accurately from the axial direction outputs of sensors by Estler face motion reversal technique. Further more we have defined and measured the sensitivity of positioning error to the five error motions.

Keywords: Donaldson's reversal methods, Estler face motionreversal method, Error motion, sensitivity, T.I.R (Total IndicatedReading).

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Authors: Sanjay Kanade, Danielle Camara, Dijana Petrovska-Delacretaz, Bernadette Dorizzi

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In this paper, a two factor scheme is proposed to generate cryptographic keys directly from biometric data, which unlike passwords, are strongly bound to the user. Hash value of the reference iris code is used as a cryptographic key and its length depends only on the hash function, being independent of any other parameter. The entropy of such keys is 94 bits, which is much higher than any other comparable system. The most important and distinct feature of this scheme is that it regenerates the reference iris code by providing a genuine iris sample and the correct user password. Since iris codes obtained from two images of the same eye are not exactly the same, error correcting codes (Hadamard code and Reed-Solomon code) are used to deal with the variability. The scheme proposed here can be used to provide keys for a cryptographic system and/or for user authentication. The performance of this system is evaluated on two publicly available databases for iris biometrics namely CBS and ICE databases. The operating point of the system (values of False Acceptance Rate (FAR) and False Rejection Rate (FRR)) can be set by properly selecting the error correction capacity (ts) of the Reed- Solomon codes, e.g., on the ICE database, at ts = 15, FAR is 0.096% and FRR is 0.76%.

Keywords:

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Authors: Y. Galerkin, K. Soldatova, A. Drozdov

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The 6th version of Universal modeling method for centrifugal compressor stage calculation is described. Identification of the new mathematical model was made. As a result of identification the uniform set of empirical coefficients is received. The efficiency definition error is 0,86 % at a design point. The efficiency definition error at five flow rate points (except a point of the maximum flow rate) is 1,22 %. Several variants of the stage with 3D impellers designed by 6th version program and quasi threedimensional calculation programs were compared by their gas dynamic performances CFD (NUMECA FINE TURBO). Performance comparison demonstrated general principles of design validity and leads to some design recommendations.

Keywords: Compressor design, loss model, performance prediction, test data, model stages, flow rate coefficient, work coefficient.

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Authors: I Gede Puja Astawa, Yoedy Moegiharto, Ahmad Zainudin, Imam Dui Agus Salim, Nur Annisa Anggraeni

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Performance of Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) system can be improved by adding channel coding (error correction code) to detect and correct errors that occur during data transmission. One can use the convolution code. This paper present performance of OFDM using Space Time Block Codes (STBC) diversity technique use QAM modulation with code rate ½. The evaluation is done by analyzing the value of Bit Error Rate (BER) vs. Energy per Bit to Noise Power Spectral Density Ratio (Eb/No). This scheme is conducted 256 subcarrier transmits Rayleigh multipath channel in OFDM system. To achieve a BER of 10^-3 is required 10dB SNR in SISO-OFDM scheme. For 2x2 MIMO-OFDM scheme requires 10 dB to achieve a BER of 10^-3. For 4x4 MIMO-OFDM scheme requires 5 dB while adding convolution in a 4x4 MIMO-OFDM can improve performance up to 0 dB to achieve the same BER. This proves the existence of saving power by 3 dB of 4x4 MIMO-OFDM system without coding, power saving 7dB of 2x2 MIMO-OFDM and significant power savings from SISO-OFDM system

Keywords: Convolution code, OFDM, MIMO, QAM, BER.

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Authors: Omar Al Denali, Abdelaziz Badi

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The ASTM A516 Grade 70 steel is a suitable material used for the fabrication of boiler pressure vessels working in moderate and lower temperature services, and it has good weldability and excellent notch toughness. The post-weld heat treatment (PWHT) or stress-relieving heat treatment has significant effects on avoiding the martensite transformation and resulting in high hardness, which can lead to cracking in the heat-affected zone (HAZ). An adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) was implemented to predict the material tensile strength of PWHT experiments. The ANFIS models presented excellent predictions, and the comparison was carried out based on the mean absolute percentage error between the predicted values and the experimental values. The ANFIS model gave a Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 0.556%, which confirms the high accuracy of the model.

Keywords: Prediction, post-weld heat treatment, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, ANFIS, mean absolute percentage error.

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Authors: J. K. Alhassan, B. Attah, S. Misra

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Human beings have the ability to make logical decisions. Although human decision - making is often optimal, it is insufficient when huge amount of data is to be classified. Medical dataset is a vital ingredient used in predicting patient’s health condition. In other to have the best prediction, there calls for most suitable machine learning algorithms. This work compared the performance of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Decision Tree Algorithms (DTA) as regards to some performance metrics using diabetes data. WEKA software was used for the implementation of the algorithms. Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Radial Basis Function (RBF) were the two algorithms used for ANN, while RegTree and LADTree algorithms were the DTA models used. From the results obtained, DTA performed better than ANN. The Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of MLP is 0.3913 that of RBF is 0.3625, that of RepTree is 0.3174 and that of LADTree is 0.3206 respectively.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, classification, decision tree, diabetes mellitus.

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Authors: Odón R. Sánchez-Ccoyllo, Elizabeth Ayma-Choque, Alan Llacza

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Sulphur dioxide (SO₂) and surface-ozone (O₃) concentrations are associated with diseases. The objective of this research is to evaluate the effectiveness of the air-quality Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled to Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model with a horizontal resolution of 5 km x 5 km. For this purpose, the measurements of the hourly SO₂ and O₃ concentrations available in three air quality monitoring stations in Lima, Peru were used for the purpose of validating the simulations of the SO₂ and O₃ concentrations obtained with the WRF-Chem model in February 2018. For the quantitative evaluation of the simulations of these gases, statistical techniques were implemented, such as the average of the simulations; the average of the measurements; the Mean Bias (MeB); the Mean Error (MeE); and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The results of these statistical metrics indicated that the simulated SO₂ and O₃ values over-predicted the SO₂ and O₃ measurements. For the SO₂ concentration, the MeB values varied from 0.58 to 26.35 µg/m³; the MeE values varied from 8.75 to 26.5 µg/m³; the RMSE values varied from 13.3 to 31.79 µg/m³; while for O₃ concentrations the statistical values of the MeB varied from 37.52 to 56.29 µg/m³; the MeE values varied from 37.54 to 56.70 µg/m³; the RMSE values varied from 43.05 to 69.56 µg/m³.

Keywords: Ground-ozone, Lima, Sulphur dioxide, WRF-Chem.

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Authors: Ionel Stanculeanu, Theodor Borangiu

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This paper presents a new approach in the identification of the quadrotor dynamic model using a black-box system for identification. Also the paper considers the problems which appear during the identification in the closed-loop and offers a technical solution for overcoming the correlation between the input noise present in the output

Keywords: System identification, UAV, prediction error method, quadrotor.

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Authors: Po-Jen Su, Huann-Ming Chou

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In this article, we used the residual correction method to deal with transient thermoelastic problems with a hollow spherical region when the continuum medium possesses spherically isotropic thermoelastic properties. Based on linear thermoelastic theory, the equations of hyperbolic heat conduction and thermoelastic motion were combined to establish the thermoelastic dynamic model with consideration of the deformation acceleration effect and non-Fourier effect under the condition of transient thermal shock. The approximate solutions of temperature and displacement distributions are obtained using the residual correction method based on the maximum principle in combination with the finite difference method, making it easier and faster to obtain upper and lower approximations of exact solutions. The proposed method is found to be an effective numerical method with satisfactory accuracy. Moreover, the result shows that the effect of transient thermal shock induced by deformation acceleration is enhanced by non-Fourier heat conduction with increased peak stress. The influence on the stress increases with the thermal relaxation time.

Keywords: Maximum principle, non-Fourier heat conduction, residual correction method, thermo-elastic response.

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Authors: Rameswar Debnath, Haruhisa Takahashi

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An evolutionary method whose selection and recombination operations are based on generalization error-bounds of support vector machine (SVM) can select a subset of potentially informative genes for SVM classifier very efficiently [7]. In this paper, we will use the derivative of error-bound (first-order criteria) to select and recombine gene features in the evolutionary process, and compare the performance of the derivative of error-bound with the error-bound itself (zero-order) in the evolutionary process. We also investigate several error-bounds and their derivatives to compare the performance, and find the best criteria for gene selection and classification. We use 7 cancer-related human gene expression datasets to evaluate the performance of the zero-order and first-order criteria of error-bounds. Though both criteria have the same strategy in theoretically, experimental results demonstrate the best criterion for microarray gene expression data.

Keywords: support vector machine, generalization error-bound, feature selection, evolutionary algorithm, microarray data

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Authors: Satyendra Nath Mandal, J. Pal Choudhury, Dilip De, S. R. Bhadra Chaudhuri

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The selection for plantation of a particular type of mustard plant depending on its productivity (pod yield) at the stage of maturity. The growth of mustard plant dependent on some parameters of that plant, these are shoot length, number of leaves, number of roots and roots length etc. As the plant is growing, some leaves may be fall down and some new leaves may come, so it can not gives the idea to develop the relationship with the seeds weight at mature stage of that plant. It is not possible to find the number of roots and root length of mustard plant at growing stage that will be harmful of this plant as roots goes deeper to deeper inside the land. Only the value of shoot length which increases in course of time can be measured at different time instances. Weather parameters are maximum and minimum humidity, rain fall, maximum and minimum temperature may effect the growth of the plant. The parameters of pollution, water, soil, distance and crop management may be dominant factors of growth of plant and its productivity. Considering all parameters, the growth of the plant is very uncertain, fuzzy environment can be considered for the prediction of shoot length at maturity of the plant. Fuzzification plays a greater role for fuzzification of data, which is based on certain membership functions. Here an effort has been made to fuzzify the original data based on gaussian function, triangular function, s-function, Trapezoidal and L –function. After that all fuzzified data are defuzzified to get normal form. Finally the error analysis (calculation of forecasting error and average error) indicates the membership function appropriate for fuzzification of data and use to predict the shoot length at maturity. The result is also verified using residual (Absolute Residual, Maximum of Absolute Residual, Mean Absolute Residual, Mean of Mean Absolute Residual, Median of Absolute Residual and Standard Deviation) analysis.

Keywords: Fuzzification, defuzzification, gaussian function, triangular function, trapezoidal function, s-function, , membership function, residual analysis.

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Authors: Jaeyoon Lee, Dongweon Yoon, Hoon Yoo, Sanggoo Kim

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Orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) has developed into a popular scheme for wideband digital communications used in consumer applications such as digital broadcasting, wireless networking and broadband internet access. In the OFDM system, carrier frequency offset (CFO) causes intercarrier interference (ICI) which significantly degrades the system error performance. In this paper we provide an exact evaluation method for error performance analysis of arbitrary 2-D modulation OFDM systems with CFO, and analyze the effect of CFO on error performance.

Keywords: Carrier frequency offset, Probability of error, Inter-channel interference, Orthogonal frequency division multiplexing

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Authors: Yu-Lin Liao, Ya-Fu Peng

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An adaptive dynamic cerebellar model articulation controller (DCMAC) neural network used for solving the prediction and identification problem is proposed in this paper. The proposed DCMAC has superior capability to the conventional cerebellar model articulation controller (CMAC) neural network in efficient learning mechanism, guaranteed system stability and dynamic response. The recurrent network is embedded in the DCMAC by adding feedback connections in the association memory space so that the DCMAC captures the dynamic response, where the feedback units act as memory elements. The dynamic gradient descent method is adopted to adjust DCMAC parameters on-line. Moreover, the analytical method based on a Lyapunov function is proposed to determine the learning-rates of DCMAC so that the variable optimal learning-rates are derived to achieve most rapid convergence of identifying error. Finally, the adaptive DCMAC is applied in two computer simulations. Simulation results show that accurate identifying response and superior dynamic performance can be obtained because of the powerful on-line learning capability of the proposed DCMAC.

Keywords: adaptive, cerebellar model articulation controller, CMAC, prediction, identification

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Authors: Damith Senanayake, Lakmal Muthugama, Laksheen Mendis, Tiroshan Madushanka

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Customer churn prediction is one of the most useful areas of study in customer analytics. Due to the enormous amount of data available for such predictions, machine learning and data mining have been heavily used in this domain. There exist many machine learning algorithms directly applicable for the problem of customer churn prediction, and here, we attempt to experiment on a novel approach by using a cognitive learning based technique in an attempt to improve the results obtained by using a combination of supervised learning methods, with cognitive unsupervised learning methods.

Keywords: Growing Self Organizing Maps, Kernel Methods, Churn Prediction.

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Authors: Mohammad Zavid Parvez, Manoranjan Paul

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A seizure prediction method is proposed by extracting global features using phase correlation between adjacent epochs for detecting relative changes and local features using fluctuation/ deviation within an epoch for determining fine changes of different EEG signals. A classifier and a regularization technique are applied for the reduction of false alarms and improvement of the overall prediction accuracy. The experiments show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art methods and provides high prediction accuracy (i.e., 97.70%) with low false alarm using EEG signals in different brain locations from a benchmark data set.

Keywords: Epilepsy, Seizure, Phase Correlation, Fluctuation, Deviation.

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Authors: Sofia Stoica

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In this paper, we use historical data to predict the stock price of a tech company. To this end, we use a dataset consisting of the stock prices over the past five years of 10 major tech companies: Adobe, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Netflix, Oracle, Salesforce, and Tesla. We implemented and tested three models – a linear regressor model, a k-nearest neighbor model (KNN), and a sequential neural network – and two algorithms – Multiplicative Weight Update and AdaBoost. We found that the sequential neural network performed the best, with a testing error of 0.18%. Interestingly, the linear model performed the second best with a testing error of 0.73%. These results show that using historical data is enough to obtain high accuracies, and a simple algorithm like linear regression has a performance similar to more sophisticated models while taking less time and resources to implement.

Keywords: Finance, machine learning, opening price, stock market.

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Authors: Yakup Sahin, Naim Suleyman Ting, Ismail Aksoy

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A 1 kW power factor correction boost converter with an active snubber cell is presented in this paper. In the converter, the main switch turns on under zero voltage transition (ZVT) and turns off under zero current transition (ZCT) without any additional voltage or current stress. The auxiliary switch turns on and off under zero current switching (ZCS). Besides, the main diode turns on under ZVS and turns off under ZCS. The output current and voltage are controlled by the PFC converter in wide line and load range. The simulation results of converter are obtained for 1 kW and 100 kHz. One of the most important feature of the given converter is that it has direct power transfer as well as excellent soft switching techniques. Also, the converter has 0.99 power factor with the sinusoidal input current shape.

Keywords: Power factor correction, direct power transfer, zero-voltage transition, zero-current transition, soft switching.

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Authors: Sagir M. Yusuf, Chris Baber

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In this paper, we describe how to achieve knowledge understanding and prediction (Situation Awareness (SA)) for multiple-agents conducting searching activity using Bayesian inferential reasoning and learning. Bayesian Belief Network was used to monitor agents' knowledge about their environment, and cases are recorded for the network training using expectation-maximisation or gradient descent algorithm. The well trained network will be used for decision making and environmental situation prediction. Forest fire searching by multiple UAVs was the use case. UAVs are tasked to explore a forest and find a fire for urgent actions by the fire wardens. The paper focused on two problems: (i) effective agents’ path planning strategy and (ii) knowledge understanding and prediction (SA). The path planning problem by inspiring animal mode of foraging using Lévy distribution augmented with Bayesian reasoning was fully described in this paper. Results proof that the Lévy flight strategy performs better than the previous fixed-pattern (e.g., parallel sweeps) approaches in terms of energy and time utilisation. We also introduced a waypoint assessment strategy called k-previous waypoints assessment. It improves the performance of the ordinary levy flight by saving agent’s resources and mission time through redundant search avoidance. The agents (UAVs) are to report their mission knowledge at the central server for interpretation and prediction purposes. Bayesian reasoning and learning were used for the SA and results proof effectiveness in different environments scenario in terms of prediction and effective knowledge representation. The prediction accuracy was measured using learning error rate, logarithm loss, and Brier score and the result proves that little agents mission that can be used for prediction within the same or different environment. Finally, we described a situation-based knowledge visualization and prediction technique for heterogeneous multi-UAV mission. While this paper proves linkage of Bayesian reasoning and learning with SA and effective searching strategy, future works is focusing on simplifying the architecture.

Keywords: Lèvy flight, situation awareness, multi-agent system, multi-robot coordination, autonomous system, swarm intelligence.

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Authors: V. Sacca, A. Sarica, F. Novellino, S. Barone, T. Tallarico, E. Filippelli, A. Granata, P. Valentino, A. Quattrone

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In the last few years, resting-state functional MRI (rs-fMRI) was widely used to investigate the architecture of brain networks by investigating the Blood Oxygenation Level Dependent response. This technique represented an interesting, robust and reliable approach to compare pathologic and healthy subjects in order to investigate neurodegenerative diseases evolution. On the other hand, the elaboration of rs-fMRI data resulted to be very prone to noise due to confounding factors especially the head motion. Head motion has long been known to be a source of artefacts in task-based functional MRI studies, but it has become a particularly challenging problem in recent studies using rs-fMRI. The aim of this work was to evaluate in MS patients a well-known motion correction algorithm from the FMRIB's Software Library - MCFLIRT - that could be applied to minimize the head motion distortions, allowing to correctly interpret rs-fMRI results.

Keywords: Head motion correction, MCFLIRT algorithm, multiple sclerosis, resting state fMRI.

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Authors: Ebipatei Victoria Tunyan, T. A. Cao, Cheol Young Ock

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Detecting subjectively biased statements is a vital task. This is because this kind of bias, when present in the text or other forms of information dissemination media such as news, social media, scientific texts, and encyclopedias, can weaken trust in the information and stir conflicts amongst consumers. Subjective bias detection is also critical for many Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks like sentiment analysis, opinion identification, and bias neutralization. Having a system that can adequately detect subjectivity in text will boost research in the above-mentioned areas significantly. It can also come in handy for platforms like Wikipedia, where the use of neutral language is of importance. The goal of this work is to identify the subjectively biased language in text on a sentence level. With machine learning, we can solve complex AI problems, making it a good fit for the problem of subjective bias detection. A key step in this approach is to train a classifier based on BERT (Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers) as upstream model. BERT by itself can be used as a classifier; however, in this study, we use BERT as data preprocessor as well as an embedding generator for a Bi-LSTM (Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory) network incorporated with attention mechanism. This approach produces a deeper and better classifier. We evaluate the effectiveness of our model using the Wiki Neutrality Corpus (WNC), which was compiled from Wikipedia edits that removed various biased instances from sentences as a benchmark dataset, with which we also compare our model to existing approaches. Experimental analysis indicates an improved performance, as our model achieved state-of-the-art accuracy in detecting subjective bias. This study focuses on the English language, but the model can be fine-tuned to accommodate other languages.

Keywords: Subjective bias detection, machine learning, BERT–BiLSTM–Attention, text classification, natural language processing.

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Authors: M. Nahid, A. Bajit, A. Tamtaoui, E. H. Bouyakhf

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To model the human visual system (HVS) in the region of interest, we propose a new objective metric evaluation adapted to wavelet foveation-based image compression quality measurement, which exploits a foveation setup filter implementation technique in the DWT domain, based especially on the point and region of fixation of the human eye. This model is then used to predict the visible divergences between an original and compressed image with respect to this region field and yields an adapted and local measure error by removing all peripheral errors. The technique, which we call foveation wavelet visible difference prediction (FWVDP), is demonstrated on a number of noisy images all of which have the same local peak signal to noise ratio (PSNR), but visibly different errors. We show that the FWVDP reliably predicts the fixation areas of interest where error is masked, due to high image contrast, and the areas where the error is visible, due to low image contrast. The paper also suggests ways in which the FWVDP can be used to determine a visually optimal quantization strategy for foveation-based wavelet coefficients and to produce a quantitative local measure of image quality.

Keywords: Human Visual System, Image Quality, ImageCompression, foveation wavelet, region of interest ROI.

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Authors: Maha Hammami, Olfa Benouda Sioud

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This study investigates the reliability of management earnings forecasts with reference to these two ingredients: verifiability and neutrality. Specifically, we examine the biasedness (or accuracy) of management earnings forecasts and company specific characteristics that can be associated with accuracy. Based on sample of 102 IPO prospectuses published for admission on NYSE Euronext Paris from 2002 to 2010, we found that these forecasts are on average optimistic and two of the five test variables, earnings variability and financial leverage are significant in explaining ex post bias. Acknowledging the possibility that the bias is the result of the managers’ forecasting behavior, we then examine whether managers decide to under-predict, over-predict or forecast accurately for self-serving purposes. Explicitly, we examine the role of financial distress, operating performance, ownership by insiders and the economy state in influencing managers’ forecasting preferences. We find that managers of distressed firms seem to over-predict future earnings. We also find that when managers are given more stock options, they tend to under-predict future earnings. Finally, we conclude that the management earnings forecasts are affected by an intentional bias due to managers’ forecasting preferences.

Keywords: Intentional bias, Management earnings forecasts, neutrality, verifiability.

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Authors: Jaroslav Polec, Viliam Hirner, Michal Martinovič, Kvetoslava Kotuliaková

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In this paper we present a novel error model for packet loss and subsequent error description. The proposed model simulates the error performance of wireless communication link. The model is designed as two independent Markov chains, where the first one is used for packet generation and the second one generates correctly and incorrectly transmitted bits for received packets from the first chain. The statistical analyses of real communication on the wireless link are used for determination of model-s parameters. Using the obtained parameters and the implementation of the generator, we collected generated traffic. The obtained results generated by proposed model are compared with the real data collection.

Keywords: Wireless channel, error model, Markov chain, Elliot model, Gilbert model, generator, IEEE 802.11.

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Authors: M. Breška, I. Peruš, V. Stankovski

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The number of Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) used for predicting peak ground acceleration (PGA) and the number of earthquake recordings that have been used for fitting these equations has increased in the past decades. The current PF-L database contains 3550 recordings. Since the GMPEs frequently model the peak ground acceleration the goal of the present study was to refit a selection of 44 of the existing equation models for PGA in light of the latest data. The algorithm Levenberg-Marquardt was used for fitting the coefficients of the equations and the results are evaluated both quantitatively by presenting the root mean squared error (RMSE) and qualitatively by drawing graphs of the five best fitted equations. The RMSE was found to be as low as 0.08 for the best equation models. The newly estimated coefficients vary from the values published in the original works.

Keywords: Ground Motion Prediction Equations, Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, refitting PF-L database.

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Authors: Sunyoung Bu, Wonkyu Chung, Philsu Kim

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In this paper, we introduce a method for improving the embedded Runge-Kutta-Fehlberg4(5) method. At each integration step, the proposed method is comprised of two equations for the solution and the error, respectively. These solution and error are obtained by solving an initial value problem whose solution has the information of the error at each integration step. The constructed algorithm controls both the error and the time step size simultaneously and possesses a good performance in the computational cost compared to the original method. For the assessment of the effectiveness, EULR problem is numerically solved.

Keywords: Embedded Runge-Kutta-Fehlberg method, Initial value problem.

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Authors: Farhad Asadi, S. Hossein Sadati

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This paper presents a prediction performance of feedforward Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Echo State Networks (ESN) trained with extended Kalman filter. Feedforward neural networks and ESN are powerful neural networks which can track and predict nonlinear signals. However, their tracking performance depends on the specific signals or data sets, having the risk of instability accompanied by large error. In this study we explore this process by applying different network size and leaking rate for prediction of nonlinear or chaotic signals in MLP neural networks. Major problems of ESN training such as the problem of initialization of the network and improvement in the prediction performance are tackled. The influence of coefficient of activation function in the hidden layer and other key parameters are investigated by simulation results. Extended Kalman filter is employed in order to improve the sequential and regulation learning rate of the feedforward neural networks. This training approach has vital features in the training of the network when signals have chaotic or non-stationary sequential pattern. Minimization of the variance in each step of the computation and hence smoothing of tracking were obtained by examining the results, indicating satisfactory tracking characteristics for certain conditions. In addition, simulation results confirmed satisfactory performance of both of the two neural networks with modified parameterization in tracking of the nonlinear signals.

Keywords: Feedforward neural networks, nonlinear signal prediction, echo state neural networks approach, leaking rates, capacity of neural networks.

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Authors: Chang Su Woo, Hyun Sung Park

Abstract:

Useful lifetime evaluation of chevron rubber spring was very important in design procedure to assure the safety and reliability. It is, therefore, necessary to establish a suitable criterion for the replacement period of chevron rubber spring. In this study, we performed characteristic analysis and useful lifetime prediction of chevron rubber spring. Rubber material coefficient was obtained by curve fittings of uniaxial tension equibiaxial tension and pure shear test. Computer simulation was executed to predict and evaluate the load capacity and stiffness for chevron rubber spring. In order to useful lifetime prediction of rubber material, we carried out the compression set with heat aging test in an oven at the temperature ranging from 50°C to 100°C during a period 180 days. By using the Arrhenius plot, several useful lifetime prediction equations for rubber material was proposed.

Keywords: Chevron rubber spring, material coefficient, finite element analysis, useful lifetime prediction.

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