Search results for: planning effort.

Authors: Gökçen A. Çiftçioğlu, M. A. Neşet Kadırgan, Figen Kadırgan

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Solar energy, since it is available every day, is seen as one of the most valuable renewable energy resources. Thus, the energy of sun should be efficiently used in various applications. The most known applications that use solar energy are heating water and spaces. High efficiency solar collectors need appropriate selective surfaces to absorb the heat. Selective surfaces (Selektif-Sera) used in this study are applied to flat collectors, which are produced by a roll to roll cost effective coating of nano nickel layers, developed in Selektif Teknoloji Co. Inc. Efficiency of flat collectors using Selektif-Sera absorbers are calculated in collaboration with Institute for Solar Technik Rapperswil, Switzerland. The main cause of high energy consumption in industry is mostly caused from low temperature level processes. There is considerable effort in research to minimize the energy use by renewable energy sources such as solar energy. A feasibility study will be presented to obtain the potential of solar thermal energy utilization in the textile industry using these solar collectors. For the feasibility calculations presented in this study, textile dyeing and finishing factory located at Kahramanmaras is selected since the geographic location was an important factor. Kahramanmaras is located in the south east part of Turkey thus has a great potential to have solar illumination much longer. It was observed that, the collector area is limited by the available area in the factory, thus a hybrid heating generating system (lignite/solar thermal) was preferred in the calculations of this study to be more realistic. During the feasibility work, the calculations took into account the preheating process, where well waters heated from 15 °C to 30-40 °C by using the hot waters in heat exchangers. Then the preheated water was heated again by high efficiency solar collectors. Economic comparison between the lignite use and solar thermal collector use was provided to determine the optimal system that can be used efficiently. The optimum design of solar thermal systems was studied depending on the optimum collector area. It was found that the solar thermal system is more economic and efficient than the merely lignite use. Return on investment time is calculated as 5.15 years.

Keywords: Solar energy, heating, solar heating.

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Authors: Lara Dutil-Fafard, Caroline Rhéaume, Patrick Archambault, Daniel Lafond, Neal W. Pollock

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Improving resources for medical autonomy of astronauts in prolonged space missions, such as a Mars mission, requires not only technology development, but also decision-making support systems. The Advanced Crew Medical System - Medical Condition Requirements study, funded by the Canadian Space Agency, aimed to create knowledge content and a scenario-based query capability to support medical autonomy of astronauts. The key objective of this study was to create a prototype tool for identifying medical infrastructure requirements in terms of medical knowledge, skills and materials. A multicriteria decision-making method was used to prioritize the highest risk medical events anticipated in a long-term space mission. Starting with those medical conditions, event sequence diagrams (ESDs) were created in the form of decision trees where the entry point is the diagnosis and the end points are the predicted outcomes (full recovery, partial recovery, or death/severe incapacitation). The ESD formalism was adapted to characterize and compare possible outcomes of medical conditions as a function of available medical knowledge, skills, and supplies in a given mission scenario. An extensive literature review was performed and summarized in a medical condition database. A PostgreSQL relational database was created to allow query-based evaluation of health outcome metrics with different medical infrastructure scenarios. Critical decision points, skill and medical supply requirements, and probable health outcomes were compared across chosen scenarios. The three medical conditions with the highest risk rank were acute coronary syndrome, sepsis, and stroke. Our efforts demonstrate the utility of this approach and provide insight into the effort required to develop appropriate content for the range of medical conditions that may arise.

Keywords: Decision support system, event sequence diagram, exploration mission, medical autonomy, scenario-based queries, space medicine.

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Authors: Kazunori Nomura, Hiromichi Ogi, Masaumi Nakahara, Sou Watanabe, Atsuhiro Shibata

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Chemical Processing Facility of Japan Atomic Energy Agency is a basic research field for advanced back-end technology developments with using actual high-level radioactive materials such as irradiated fuels from the fast reactor, high-level liquid waste from reprocessing plant. In the nature of a research facility, various kinds of chemical reagents have been offered for fundamental tests. Most of them were treated properly and stored in the liquid waste vessel equipped in the facility, but some were not treated and remained at the experimental space as a kind of legacy waste. It is required to treat the waste in safety. On the other hand, we formulated the Medium- and Long-Term Management Plan of Japan Atomic Energy Agency Facilities. This comprehensive plan considers Chemical Processing Facility as one of the facilities to be decommissioned. Even if the plan is executed, treatment of the “legacy” waste beforehand must be a necessary step for decommissioning operation. Under this circumstance, we launched a collaborative research project called the STRAD project, which stands for Systematic Treatment of Radioactive liquid waste for Decommissioning, in order to develop the treatment processes for wastes of the nuclear research facility. In this project, decomposition methods of chemicals causing a troublesome phenomenon such as corrosion and explosion have been developed and there is a prospect of their decomposition in the facility by simple method. And solidification of aqueous or organic liquid wastes after the decomposition has been studied by adding cement or coagulants. Furthermore, we treated experimental tools of various materials with making an effort to stabilize and to compact them before the package into the waste container. It is expected to decrease the number of transportation of the solid waste and widen the operation space. Some achievements of these studies will be shown in this paper. The project is expected to contribute beneficial waste management outcome that can be shared world widely.

Keywords: Chemical Processing Facility, medium- and long-term management plan of JAEA Facilities, STRAD project, treatment of radioactive waste.

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Authors: Iftikhar Ahmed Satti, Wan Ismail Wan Yusoff

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The structural interpretation of a part of eastern Potwar (Missa Keswal) has been carried out with available seismological, seismic and well data. Seismological data contains both the source parameters and fault plane solution (FPS) parameters and seismic data contains ten seismic lines that were re-interpreted by using well data. Structural interpretation depicts two broad types of fault sets namely, thrust and back thrust faults. These faults together give rise to pop up structures in the study area and also responsible for many structural traps and seismicity. Seismic interpretation includes time and depth contour maps of Chorgali Formation while seismological interpretation includes focal mechanism solution (FMS), depth, frequency, magnitude bar graphs and renewal of Seismotectonic map. The Focal Mechanism Solutions (FMS) that surrounds the study area are correlated with the different geological and structural maps of the area for the determination of the nature of subsurface faults. Results of structural interpretation from both seismic and seismological data show good correlation. It is hoped that the present work will help in better understanding of the variations in the subsurface structure and can be a useful tool for earthquake prediction, planning of oil field and reservoir monitoring.

Keywords: Focal mechanism solution (FMS), Fault plane solution (FPS), Reservoir monitoring, earthquake prediction.

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Authors: Heeyeul Kwon, Yongtae Park

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Despite the highly touted benefits, emerging technologies have unleashed pervasive concerns regarding unintended and unforeseen social impacts. Thus, those wishing to create safe and socially acceptable products need to identify such side effects and mitigate them prior to the market proliferation. Various methodologies in the field of technology assessment (TA), namely Delphi, impact assessment, and scenario planning, have been widely incorporated in such a circumstance. However, literatures face a major limitation in terms of sole reliance on participatory workshop activities. They unfortunately missed out the availability of a massive untapped data source of futuristic information flooding through the Internet. This research thus seeks to gain insights into utilization of futuristic data, future-oriented documents from the Internet, as a supplementary method to generate social impact scenarios whilst capturing perspectives of experts from a wide variety of disciplines. To this end, network analysis is conducted based on the social keywords extracted from the futuristic documents by text mining, which is then used as a guide to produce a comprehensive set of detailed scenarios. Our proposed approach facilitates harmonized depictions of possible hazardous consequences of emerging technologies and thereby makes decision makers more aware of, and responsive to, broad qualitative uncertainties.

Keywords: Emerging technologies, futuristic data, scenario, text mining.

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Authors: Vijay Shankar

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Evapotranspiration (ET) is a major component of the hydrologic cycle and its accurate estimation is essential for hydrological studies. In past, various estimation methods have been developed for different climatological data, and the accuracy of these methods varies with climatic conditions. Reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) is a key variable in procedures established for estimating evapotranspiration rates of agricultural crops. Values of ET0 are used with crop coefficients for many aspects of irrigation and water resources planning and management. Numerous methods are used for estimating ET0. As per internationally accepted procedures outlined in the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization-s Irrigation and Drainage Paper No. 56(FAO-56), use of Penman-Monteith equation is recommended for computing ET0 from ground based climatological observations. In the present study, seven methods have been selected for performance evaluation. User friendly software has been developed using programming language visual basic. The visual basic has ability to create graphical environment using less coding. For given data availability the developed software estimates reference evapotranspiration for any given area and period for which data is available. The accuracy of the software has been checked by the examples given in FAO-56.The developed software is a user friendly tool for estimating ET0 under different data availability and climatic conditions.

Keywords: Crop coefficient, Crop evapotranspiration, Field moisture, Irrigation Scheduling.

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Authors: E. Bruno, F. Lacarbonara, M. C. Placentino, D. Gramegna

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Environmental decision making, particularly about hazardous waste management, is inherently exposed to a high potential conflict, principally because of the trade-off between sociopolitical, environmental, health and economic factors. The need to plan complex contexts has led to an increasing request for decision analytic techniques as support for the decision process. In this work, alternative systems of asbestos-containing waste management (ACW) in Puglia (Southern Italy) were explored by a multi-criteria decision analysis. In particular, through Analytic Hierarchy Process five alternatives management have been compared and ranked according to their performance and efficiency, taking into account environmental, health and socio-economic aspects. A separated valuation has been performed for different temporal scale. For short period results showed a narrow deviation between the disposal alternatives “mono-material landfill in public quarry" and “dedicate cells in existing landfill", with the best performance of the first one. While for long period “treatment plant to eliminate hazard from asbestos-containing waste" was prevalent, although high energy demand required to achieve the change of crystalline structure. A comparison with results from a participative approach in valuation process might be considered as future development of method application to ACW management.

Keywords: Multi-criteria decision analysis, Hazardous wastemanagement, Asbestos.

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Authors: Valeri A. Makarov, Nazareth P. Castellanos, Manuel G. Velarde

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In order to answer the general question: “What does a simple agent with a limited life-time require for constructing a useful representation of the environment?" we propose a robot platform including the simplest probabilistic sensory and motor layers. Then we use the platform as a test-bed for evaluation of the navigational capabilities of the robot with different “brains". We claim that a protocognitive behavior is not a consequence of highly sophisticated sensory–motor organs but instead emerges through an increment of the internal complexity and reutilization of the minimal sensory information. We show that the most fundamental robot element, the short-time memory, is essential in obstacle avoidance. However, in the simplest conditions of no obstacles the straightforward memoryless robot is usually superior. We also demonstrate how a low level action planning, involving essentially nonlinear dynamics, provides a considerable gain to the robot performance dynamically changing the robot strategy. Still, however, for very short life time the brainless robot is superior. Accordingly we suggest that small organisms (or agents) with short life-time does not require complex brains and even can benefit from simple brain-like (reflex) structures. To some extend this may mean that controlling blocks of modern robots are too complicated comparative to their life-time and mechanical abilities.

Keywords: Neural network, probabilistic control, robot navigation.

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Authors: Mohamad Azmi Haniffa, Fakhruldin Mohd Hashim

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Pipeline infrastructures normally represent high cost of investment and the pipeline must be free from risks that could cause environmental hazard and potential threats to personnel safety. Pipeline integrity such monitoring and management become very crucial to provide unimpeded transportation and avoiding unnecessary production deferment. Thus proper cleaning and inspection is the key to safe and reliable pipeline operation and plays an important role in pipeline integrity management program and has become a standard industry procedure. In view of this, understanding the motion (dynamic behavior), prediction and control of the PIG speed is important in executing pigging operation as it offers significant benefits, such as estimating PIG arrival time at receiving station, planning for suitable pigging operation, and improves efficiency of pigging tasks. The objective of this paper is to review recent developments in speed control system of pipeline PIGs. The review carried out would serve as an industrial application in a form of quick reference of recent developments in pipeline PIG speed control system, and further initiate others to add-in/update the list in the future leading to knowledge based data, and would attract active interest of others to share their view points.

Keywords: Pipeline Inspection Gauge (PIG), In Line Inspection Tools (ILI), PIG motion, PIG speed control system

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Authors: Abdullah M. Alodhaiani, Yasir A. Alturki, Mohamed A. Elkady

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Complex power flow distribution factors, which relate line complex power flows to the bus injected complex powers, have been widely used in various power system planning and analysis studies. In particular, AC distribution factors have been used extensively in the recent power and energy pricing studies in free electricity market field. As was demonstrated in the existing literature, many of the electricity market related costing studies rely on the use of the distribution factors. These known distribution factors, whether the injection shift factors (ISF’s) or power transfer distribution factors (PTDF’s), are linear approximations of the first order sensitivities of the active power flows with respect to various variables. This paper presents a novel model for evaluating the universal distribution factors (UDF’s), which are appropriate for an extensive range of power systems analysis and free electricity market studies. These distribution factors are used for the calculations of lines complex power flows and its independent of bus power injections, they are compact matrix-form expressions with total flexibility in determining the position on the line at which line flows are measured. The proposed approach was tested on IEEE 9-Bus system. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed approach is very accurate compared with exact method.

Keywords: Distribution Factors, Power System, Sensitivity Factors, Electricity Market.

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Authors: H. Chaker, T. Slama, N. Elyétim

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This paper analyzes the effects of gender, affiliation, prior work experience, social work, and vicarious learning through family role models on entrepreneurial skills development by students when they followed the teaching through the entrepreneurship method in Tunisia. We suggest that these variables enhance the development of students’ entrepreneurial skills when combined with teaching through entrepreneurship. The article assesses the impact of these combinations by comparing their effects on the development of thirteen students’ entrepreneurial competencies, namely entrepreneurial mindset, core self-evaluation, entrepreneurial attitude, entrepreneurial knowledge, creativity, financial literacy, managing ambiguity, marshaling of resources, planning, teaching methods, entrepreneurial teachers, innovative employee, and entrepreneurial intention. We use a two-sample independent t-test to make the comparison, and the results indicate that, when combined with teaching through the entrepreneurship method, students with prior work experience developed better six entrepreneurial skills; students with social work developed better three entrepreneurial skills, men developed better four entrepreneurial skills than women. However, all students developed their entrepreneurial skills through this practical method regardless of their affiliation and their vicarious learning through family role models.

Keywords: Affiliation, entrepreneurial skills, gender, role models, social work, teaching through entrepreneurship, vicarious learning, work experience.

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Authors: Sanae Attioui, Said Najah

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The Earth's surface is constantly changing through forces of nature and human activities. Reliable, accurate, and timely change detection is critical to environmental monitoring, resource management, and planning activities. Recently, interest in deep learning algorithms, especially convolutional neural networks, has increased in the field of image change detection due to their powerful ability to extract multi-level image features automatically. However, these networks are prone to drawbacks that limit their applications, which reside in their inability to capture spatial relationships between image instances, as this necessitates a large amount of training data. As an alternative, Capsule Network has been proposed to overcome these shortcomings. Although its effectiveness in remote sensing image analysis has been experimentally verified, its application in change detection tasks remains very sparse. Motivated by its greater robustness towards improved hierarchical object representation, this study aims to apply a capsule network for PolSAR image Change Detection. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed change detection method can yield a significantly higher detection rate compared to methods based on convolutional neural networks.

Keywords: Change detection, capsule network, deep network, Convolutional Neural Networks, polarimetric synthetic aperture radar images, PolSAR images.

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Authors: Mehrdad Arabi, Ehsan Beheshtitabar, Bahador Ghadirifaraz, Behrooz Forjanizadeh

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Interaction between human, location and activity defines space. In the framework of these relations, space is a container for current specifications in relations of the 3 mentioned elements. The change of land utility considered with average performance range, urban regulations, society requirements etc. will provide welfare and comfort for citizens. From an engineering view it is fundamental that choosing a proper location for a specific civil activity requires evaluation of locations from different perspectives. The debate of desirable establishment of municipal service elements in urban regions is one of the most important issues related to urban planning. In this paper, the research type is applicable based on goal, and is descriptive and analytical based on nature. Initially existing terminals in Esfahan are surveyed and then new locations are presented based on evaluated criteria. In order to evaluate terminals based on the considered factors, an AHP model is used at first to estimate weight of different factors and then existing and suggested locations are evaluated using Arc GIS software and AHP model results. The results show that existing bus terminals are located in fairly proper locations. Further results of this study suggest new locations to establish terminals based on urban criteria.

Keywords: Arc GIS, Esfahan city, Optimum locations, Terminals.

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Authors: Mohammad R. Jalali, Mohammad M. Jalali

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The earliest theories of sloshing waves and solitary waves based on potential theory idealisations and irrotational flow have been extended to be applicable to more realistic domains. To this end, the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methods are widely used. Three-dimensional CFD methods such as Navier-Stokes solvers with volume of fluid treatment of the free surface and Navier-Stokes solvers with mappings of the free surface inherently impose high computational expense; therefore, considerable effort has gone into developing depth-averaged approaches. Examples of such approaches include Green–Naghdi (GN) equations. In Cartesian system, GN velocity profile depends on horizontal directions, x-direction and y-direction. The effect of vertical direction (z-direction) is also taken into consideration by applying weighting function in approximation. GN theory considers the effect of vertical acceleration and the consequent non-hydrostatic pressure. Moreover, in GN theory, the flow is rotational. The present study illustrates the application of GN equations to propagation of sloshing waves and solitary waves. For this purpose, GN equations solver is verified for the benchmark tests of Gaussian hump sloshing and solitary wave propagation in shallow basins. Analysis of the free surface sloshing of even harmonic components of an initial Gaussian hump demonstrates that the GN model gives predictions in satisfactory agreement with the linear analytical solutions. Discrepancies between the GN predictions and the linear analytical solutions arise from the effect of wave nonlinearities arising from the wave amplitude itself and wave-wave interactions. Numerically predicted solitary wave propagation indicates that the GN model produces simulations in good agreement with the analytical solution of the linearised wave theory. Comparison between the GN model numerical prediction and the result from perturbation analysis confirms that nonlinear interaction between solitary wave and a solid wall is satisfactorilly modelled. Moreover, solitary wave propagation at an angle to the x-axis and the interaction of solitary waves with each other are conducted to validate the developed model.

Keywords: Even harmonic components of sloshing waves, Green–Naghdi equations, nonlinearity, solitary waves.

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Authors: B. S. Fatoyinbo, D. Stretch, O. T. Amoo, D. Allopi

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This study extends the use of the Drainage Area Regionalization (DAR) method in generating synthetic data and calibrating PyTOPKAPI stream yield for an ungauged basin at a daily time scale. The generation of runoff in determining a river yield has been subjected to various topographic and spatial meteorological variables, which integers form the Catchment Characteristics Model (CCM). Many of the conventional CCM models adapted in Africa have been challenged with a paucity of adequate, relevance and accurate data to parameterize and validate the potential. The purpose of generating synthetic flow is to test a hydrological model, which will not suffer from the impact of very low flows or very high flows, thus allowing to check whether the model is structurally sound enough or not. The employed physically-based, watershed-scale hydrologic model (PyTOPKAPI) was parameterized with GIS-pre-processing parameters and remote sensing hydro-meteorological variables. The validation with mean annual runoff ratio proposes a decent graphical understanding between observed and the simulated discharge. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and coefficient of determination (R²) values of 0.704 and 0.739 proves strong model efficiency. Given the current climate variability impact, water planner can now assert a tool for flow quantification and sustainable planning purposes.

Keywords: Ungauged Basin, Catchment Characteristics Model, Synthetic data, GIS.

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Authors: Zarita Zainuddin, Kumatha Thinakaran, Mohammed Shuaib

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In today-s modern world, the number of vehicles is increasing on the road. This causes more people to choose walking instead of traveling using vehicles. Thus, proper planning of pedestrians- paths is important to ensure the safety of pedestrians in a walking area. Crowd dynamics study the pedestrians- behavior and modeling pedestrians- movement to ensure safety in their walking paths. To date, many models have been designed to ease pedestrians- movement. The Social Force Model is widely used among researchers as it is simpler and provides better simulation results. We will discuss the problem regarding the ritual of circumambulating the Ka-aba (Tawaf) where the entrances to this area are usually congested which worsens during the Hajj season. We will use the computer simulation model SimWalk which is based on the Social Force Model to simulate the movement of pilgrims in the Tawaf area. We will first discuss the effect of uni and bi-directional flows at the gates. We will then restrict certain gates to the area as the entrances only and others as exits only. From the simulations, we will study the effect of the distance of other entrances from the beginning line and their effects on the duration of pilgrims circumambulate Ka-aba. We will distribute the pilgrims at the different entrances evenly so that the congestion at the entrances can be reduced. We would also discuss the various locations and designs of barriers at the exits and its effect on the time taken for the pilgrims to exit the Tawaf area.

Keywords: circumambulation, Ka'aba, pedestrian flow, SFM, Tawaf , entrance, exit

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Authors: Réka Sárközi, Péter Iványi, Attila B. Széll

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The aim of this paper is to present the adaptation of the dome construction tool for formex algebra to the parametric design software Grasshopper. Formex algebra is a mathematical system, primarily used for planning structural systems such like truss-grid domes and vaults, together with the programming language Formian. The goal of the research is to allow architects to plan truss-grid structures easily with parametric design tools based on the versatile formex algebra mathematical system. To produce regular structures, coordinate system transformations are used and the dome structures are defined in spherical coordinate system. Owing to the abilities of the parametric design software, it is possible to apply further modifications on the structures and gain special forms. The paper covers the basic dome types, and also additional dome-based structures using special coordinate-system solutions based on spherical coordinate systems. It also contains additional structural possibilities like making double layer grids in all geometry forms. The adaptation of formex algebra and the parametric workflow of Grasshopper together give the possibility of quick and easy design and optimization of special truss-grid domes.

Keywords: Parametric design, structural morphology, space structures, spherical coordinate system.

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Authors: Reza Hossseynie, Amir Jafari

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This paper presents a method for steering velocity bounded mobile robots in environments with partially known stationary obstacles. The exact location of obstacles is unknown and only a probability distribution associated with the location of the obstacles is known. Kinematic model of a 2-wheeled differential drive robot is used as the model of mobile robot. The presented control strategy uses the Artificial Potential Field (APF) method for devising a desired direction of movement for the robot at each instant of time while the Constrained Directions Control (CDC) uses the generated direction to produce the control signals required for steering the robot. The location of each obstacle is considered to be the mean value of the 2D probability distribution and similarly, the magnitude of the electric charge in the APF is set as the trace of covariance matrix of the location probability distribution. The method not only captures the challenges of planning the path (i.e. probabilistic nature of the location of unknown obstacles), but it also addresses the output saturation which is considered to be an important issue from the control perspective. Moreover, velocity of the robot can be controlled during the steering. For example, the velocity of robot can be reduced in close vicinity of obstacles and target to ensure safety. Finally, the control strategy is simulated for different scenarios to show how the method can be put into practice.

Keywords: Steering, obstacle avoidance, mobile robots, constrained directions control, artificial potential field.

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Authors: Oludamilare Bode Adewuyi, Yanxia Sun, Isaiah Gbadegesin Adebayo

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Voltage stability analysis is crucial to the reliable and economic operation of power systems. The power system of developing nations is more susceptible to failures due to the continuously increasing load demand which is not matched with generation increase and efficient transmission infrastructures. Thus, most power systems are heavily stressed and the planning of extra generation from distributed generation sources needs to be efficiently done so as to ensure the security of the power system. In this paper, the performance of a relatively different approach using line voltage stability margin indicator, which has proven to have better accuracy, has been presented and compared with a conventional line voltage stability index for distributed generators (DGs) siting using the Nigerian 28 bus system. Critical Boundary Index (CBI) for voltage stability margin estimation was deployed to identify suitable locations for DG placement and the performance was compared with DG placement using Novel Line Stability Index (NLSI) approach. From the simulation results, both CBI and NLSI agreed greatly on suitable locations for DG on the test system; while CBI identified bus 18 as the most suitable at system overload, NLSI identified bus 8 to be the most suitable. Considering the effect of the DG placement at the selected buses on the voltage magnitude profile, the result shows that the DG placed on bus 18 identified by CBI improved the performance of the power system better.

Keywords: Voltage stability analysis, voltage collapse, voltage stability index, distributed generation.

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Authors: Axay J Mehta, Hema A Mehta, T.C.Manjunath, C. Ardil

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In this paper, the modelling and design of artificial neural network architecture for load forecasting purposes is investigated. The primary pre-requisite for power system planning is to arrive at realistic estimates of future demand of power, which is known as Load Forecasting. Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) helps in determining the economic, reliable and secure operating strategies for power system. The dependence of load on several factors makes the load forecasting a very challenging job. An over estimation of the load may cause premature investment and unnecessary blocking of the capital where as under estimation of load may result in shortage of equipment and circuits. It is always better to plan the system for the load slightly higher than expected one so that no exigency may arise. In this paper, a load-forecasting model is proposed using a multilayer neural network with an appropriately modified back propagation learning algorithm. Once the neural network model is designed and trained, it can forecast the load of the power system 24 hours ahead on daily basis and can also forecast the cumulative load on daily basis. The real load data that is used for the Artificial Neural Network training was taken from LDC, Gujarat Electricity Board, Jambuva, Gujarat, India. The results show that the load forecasting of the ANN model follows the actual load pattern more accurately throughout the forecasted period.

Keywords: Power system, Load forecasting, Neural Network, Neuron, Stabilization, Network structure, Load.

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Authors: Arup K. Sarma, Jayshree Hazarika

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The North-eastern part of India, which receives heavier rainfall than other parts of the subcontinent, is of great concern now-a-days with regard to climate change. High intensity rainfall for short duration and longer dry spell, occurring due to impact of climate change, affects river morphology too. In the present study, an attempt is made to delineate the North-eastern region of India into some homogeneous clusters based on the Fuzzy Clustering concept and to compare the resulting clusters obtained by using conventional methods and nonconventional methods of clustering. The concept of clustering is adapted in view of the fact that, impact of climate change can be studied in a homogeneous region without much variation, which can be helpful in studies related to water resources planning and management. 10 IMD (Indian Meteorological Department) stations, situated in various regions of the North-east, have been selected for making the clusters. The results of the Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) analysis show different clustering patterns for different conditions. From the analysis and comparison it can be concluded that nonconventional method of using GCM data is somehow giving better results than the others. However, further analysis can be done by taking daily data instead of monthly means to reduce the effect of standardization.

Keywords: Climate change, conventional and nonconventional methods of clustering, FCM analysis, homogeneous regions.

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Authors: Wayan F. Mahmudy, Romeo M. Marian, Lee H. S. Luong

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This paper presents modeling and optimization of two NP-hard problems in flexible manufacturing system (FMS), part type selection problem and loading problem. Due to the complexity and extent of the problems, the paper was split into two parts. The first part of the papers has discussed the modeling of the problems and showed how the real coded genetic algorithms (RCGA) can be applied to solve the problems. This second part discusses the effectiveness of the RCGA which uses an array of real numbers as chromosome representation. The novel proposed chromosome representation produces only feasible solutions which minimize a computational time needed by GA to push its population toward feasible search space or repair infeasible chromosomes. The proposed RCGA improves the FMS performance by considering two objectives, maximizing system throughput and maintaining the balance of the system (minimizing system unbalance). The resulted objective values are compared to the optimum values produced by branch-and-bound method. The experiments show that the proposed RCGA could reach near optimum solutions in a reasonable amount of time.

Keywords: Flexible manufacturing system, production planning, part type selection problem, loading problem, real-coded genetic algorithm

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Authors: Diriba T. Balcha, Boris Kulig, Oliver Hensel, Eyassu Woldesenbet

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Enset fiber is agricultural waste and available in a surplus amount in Ethiopia. However, the hypothesized variation in properties of this fiber due to diversity of its plant source breed, fiber position within plant stem and chemical treatment duration had not proven that its application for the development of composite products is problematic. Currently, limited data are known on the functional properties of the fiber as a potential functional fiber. Thus, an effort is made in this study to narrow the knowledge gaps by characterizing it. The experimental design was conducted using Design-Expert software and the tensile test was conducted on Enset fiber from 10 breeds: Dego, Dirbo, Gishera, Itine, Siskela, Neciho, Yesherkinke, Tuzuma, Ankogena, and Kucharkia. The effects of 5% Na-OH surface treatment duration and fiber location along and across the plant pseudostem was also investigated. The test result shows that the rupture stress variation is not significant among the fibers from 10 Enset breeds. However, strain variation is significant among the fibers from 10 Enset breeds that breed Dego fiber has the highest strain before failure. Surface treated fibers showed improved rupture strength and elastic modulus per 24 hours of treatment duration. Also, the result showed that chemical treatment can deteriorate the load-bearing capacity of the fiber. The raw fiber has the higher load-bearing capacity than the treated fiber. And, it was noted that both the rupture stress and strain increase in the top to bottom gradient, whereas there is no significant variation across the stem. Elastic modulus variation both along and across the stem was insignificant. The rupture stress, elastic modulus, and strain result of Enset fiber are 360.11 ± 181.86 MPa, 12.80 ± 6.85 GPa and 0.04 ± 0.02 mm/mm, respectively. These results show that Enset fiber is comparable to other natural fibers such as abaca, banana, and sisal fibers and can be used as alternatives natural fiber for composites application. Besides, the insignificant variation of properties among breeds and across stem is essential for all breeds and all leaf sheath of the Enset fiber plant for fiber extraction. The use of short natural fiber over the long is preferable to reduce the significant variation of properties along the stem or fiber direction. In conclusion, Enset fiber application for composite product design and development is mechanically feasible.

Keywords: Agricultural waste, chemical treatment, fiber characteristics, natural fiber.

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Authors: Petru Manescu, Joseph Azencot, Michael Beuve, Hamid Ladjal, Jacques Saade, Jean-Michel Morreau, Philippe Giraud, Behzad Shariat

Abstract:

Organ motion, especially respiratory motion, is a technical challenge to radiation therapy planning and dosimetry. This motion induces displacements and deformation of the organ tissues within the irradiated region which need to be taken into account when simulating dose distribution during treatment. Finite element modeling (FEM) can provide a great insight into the mechanical behavior of the organs, since they are based on the biomechanical material properties, complex geometry of organs, and anatomical boundary conditions. In this paper we present an original approach that offers the possibility to combine image-based biomechanical models with particle transport simulations. We propose a new method to map material density information issued from CT images to deformable tetrahedral meshes. Based on the principle of mass conservation our method can correlate density variation of organ tissues with geometrical deformations during the different phases of the respiratory cycle. The first results are particularly encouraging, as local error quantification of density mapping on organ geometry and density variation with organ motion are performed to evaluate and validate our approach.

Keywords: Biomechanical simulation, dose distribution, image guided radiation therapy, organ motion, tetrahedral mesh, 4D-CT.

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Authors: Nicolò Vaiana, Filip C. Filippou, Giorgio Serino

Abstract:

The solution of the nonlinear dynamic equilibrium equations of base-isolated structures adopting a conventional monolithic solution approach, i.e. an implicit single-step time integration method employed with an iteration procedure, and the use of existing nonlinear analytical models, such as differential equation models, to simulate the dynamic behavior of seismic isolators can require a significant computational effort. In order to reduce numerical computations, a partitioned solution method and a one dimensional nonlinear analytical model are presented in this paper. A partitioned solution approach can be easily applied to base-isolated structures in which the base isolation system is much more flexible than the superstructure. Thus, in this work, the explicit conditionally stable central difference method is used to evaluate the base isolation system nonlinear response and the implicit unconditionally stable Newmark’s constant average acceleration method is adopted to predict the superstructure linear response with the benefit in avoiding iterations in each time step of a nonlinear dynamic analysis. The proposed mathematical model is able to simulate the dynamic behavior of seismic isolators without requiring the solution of a nonlinear differential equation, as in the case of widely used differential equation model. The proposed mixed explicit-implicit time integration method and nonlinear exponential model are adopted to analyze a three dimensional seismically isolated structure with a lead rubber bearing system subjected to earthquake excitation. The numerical results show the good accuracy and the significant computational efficiency of the proposed solution approach and analytical model compared to the conventional solution method and mathematical model adopted in this work. Furthermore, the low stiffness value of the base isolation system with lead rubber bearings allows to have a critical time step considerably larger than the imposed ground acceleration time step, thus avoiding stability problems in the proposed mixed method.

Keywords: Base-isolated structures, earthquake engineering, mixed time integration, nonlinear exponential model.

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Authors: A. R. Malekpour, A.R. Seifi

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This paper discusses a genetic algorithm (GA) based optimal load shedding that can apply for electrical distribution networks with and without dispersed generators (DG). Also, the proposed method has the ability for considering constant and variable capacity deficiency caused by unscheduled outages in the bulked generation and transmission system of bulked power supply. The genetic algorithm (GA) is employed to search for the optimal load shedding strategy in distribution networks considering DGs in two cases of constant and variable modelling of bulked power supply of distribution networks. Electrical power distribution systems have a radial network and unidirectional power flows. With the advent of dispersed generations, the electrical distribution system has a locally looped network and bidirectional power flows. Therefore, installed DG in the electrical distribution systems can cause operational problems and impact on existing operational schemes. Introduction of DGs in electrical distribution systems has introduced many new issues in operational and planning level. Load shedding as one of operational issue has no exempt. The objective is to minimize the sum of curtailed load and also system losses within the frame-work of system operational and security constraints. The proposed method is tested on a radial distribution system with 33 load points for more practical applications.

Keywords: DG, Load shedding, Optimization, Capacity Deficiency Modelling.

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Authors: A. Bumbová, M. Čáslavský, F. Božek, J. Dvořák, E. Bakoš

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The paper presents the case study of hazard identification and sensitivity of potential resource of emergency water supply as part of the application of methodology classifying the resources of drinking water for emergency supply of population. The case study has been carried out on a selected resource of emergency water supply in one region of the Czech Republic. The hazard identification and sensitivity of potential resource of emergency water supply is based on a unique procedure and developed general registers of selected types of hazards and sensitivities. The registers have been developed with the help of the “Fault Tree Analysis” method in combination with the “What if method”. The identified hazards for the assessed resource include hailstorms and torrential rains, drought, soil erosion, accidents of farm machinery, and agricultural production. The developed registers of hazards and vulnerabilities and a semi-quantitative assessment of hazards for individual parts of hydrological structure and technological elements of presented drilled wells are the basis for a semi-quantitative risk assessment of potential resource of emergency supply of population and the subsequent classification of such resource within the system of crisis planning.

Keywords: Hazard identification, register of hazards, sensitivity identification, register of sensitivity, emergency water supply, state of crisis, resource of emergency water supply, ground water.

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Authors: P. K. Singhal, R. Naresh, V. Sharma

Abstract:

This paper presents the three optimization models, namely New Binary Artificial Bee Colony (NBABC) algorithm, NBABC with Local Search (NBABC-LS), and NBABC with Genetic Crossover (NBABC-GC) for solving the Wind-Thermal Unit Commitment (WTUC) problem. The uncertain nature of the wind power is incorporated using the Weibull probability density function, which is used to calculate the overestimation and underestimation costs associated with the wind power fluctuation. The NBABC algorithm utilizes a mechanism based on the dissimilarity measure between binary strings for generating the binary solutions in WTUC problem. In NBABC algorithm, an intelligent scout bee phase is proposed that replaces the abandoned solution with the global best solution. The local search operator exploits the neighboring region of the current solutions, whereas the integration of genetic crossover with the NBABC algorithm increases the diversity in the search space and thus avoids the problem of local trappings encountered with the NBABC algorithm. These models are then used to decide the units on/off status, whereas the lambda iteration method is used to dispatch the hourly load demand among the committed units. The effectiveness of the proposed models is validated on an IEEE 10-unit thermal system combined with a wind farm over the planning period of 24 hours.

Keywords: Artificial bee colony algorithm, economic dispatch, unit commitment, wind power.

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Authors: P. K. Singhal, R. Naresh, V. Sharma

Abstract:

This paper presents the three optimization models, namely New Binary Artificial Bee Colony (NBABC) algorithm, NBABC with Local Search (NBABC-LS), and NBABC with Genetic Crossover (NBABC-GC) for solving the Wind-Thermal Unit Commitment (WTUC) problem. The uncertain nature of the wind power is incorporated using the Weibull probability density function, which is used to calculate the overestimation and underestimation costs associated with the wind power fluctuation. The NBABC algorithm utilizes a mechanism based on the dissimilarity measure between binary strings for generating the binary solutions in WTUC problem. In NBABC algorithm, an intelligent scout bee phase is proposed that replaces the abandoned solution with the global best solution. The local search operator exploits the neighboring region of the current solutions, whereas the integration of genetic crossover with the NBABC algorithm increases the diversity in the search space and thus avoids the problem of local trappings encountered with the NBABC algorithm. These models are then used to decide the units on/off status, whereas the lambda iteration method is used to dispatch the hourly load demand among the committed units. The effectiveness of the proposed models is validated on an IEEE 10-unit thermal system combined with a wind farm over the planning period of 24 hours.

Keywords: Artificial bee colony algorithm, economic dispatch, unit commitment, wind power.

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Authors: Mukesh Kumar Kirar, Ganga Agnihotri

Abstract:

This paper investigates the preliminary sizing of generator set to design electrical system at the early phase of a project, dynamic behavior of generator-unit, as well as induction motors, during start-up of the induction motor drives fed from emergency generator unit. The information in this paper simplifies generator set selection and eliminates common errors in selection. It covers load estimation, step loading capacity test, transient analysis for the emergency generator set. The dynamic behavior of the generator-unit, power, power factor, voltage, during Direct-on-Line start-up of the induction motor drives fed from stand alone gene-set is also discussed. It is important to ensure that plant generators operate safely and consistently, power system studies are required at the planning and conceptual design stage of the project. The most widely recognized and studied effect of motor starting is the voltage dip that is experienced throughout an industrial power system as the direct online result of starting large motors. Generator step loading capability and transient voltage dip during starting of largest motor is ensured with the help of Electrical Transient Analyzer Program (ETAP).

Keywords: Sizing, induction motor starting, load estimation, Transient Analyzer Program (ETAP).

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