Search results for: heuristic trend prediction.

Authors: Lee P. Leon, Raymond Charles

Abstract:

This paper presents a method of evaluating the effect of aggregate angularity on hot mix asphalt (HMA) properties and its relationship to the Permanent Deformation resistance. The research concluded that aggregate particle angularity had a significant effect on the Permanent Deformation performance, and also that with an increase in coarse aggregate angularity there was an increase in the resistance of mixes to Permanent Deformation. A comparison between the measured data and predictive data of permanent deformation predictive models showed the limits of existing prediction models. The numerical analysis described the permanent deformation zones and concluded that angularity has an effect of the onset of these zones. Prediction of permanent deformation help road agencies and by extension economists and engineers determine the best approach for maintenance, rehabilitation, and new construction works of the road infrastructure.

Keywords: Aggregate angularity, asphalt concrete, permanent deformation, rutting prediction.

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Authors: A.K.Balirsingh, S.C.Swain, S. Panda

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Recently, Genetic Algorithms (GA) and Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm technique have attracted considerable attention among various modern heuristic optimization techniques. Since the two approaches are supposed to find a solution to a given objective function but employ different strategies and computational effort, it is appropriate to compare their performance. This paper presents the application and performance comparison of DE and GA optimization techniques, for flexible ac transmission system (FACTS)-based controller design. The design objective is to enhance the power system stability. The design problem of the FACTS-based controller is formulated as an optimization problem and both the PSO and GA optimization techniques are employed to search for optimal controller parameters. The performance of both optimization techniques has been compared. Further, the optimized controllers are tested on a weekly connected power system subjected to different disturbances, and their performance is compared with the conventional power system stabilizer (CPSS). The eigenvalue analysis and non-linear simulation results are presented and compared to show the effectiveness of both the techniques in designing a FACTS-based controller, to enhance power system stability.

Keywords: Differential Evolution, Flexible AC TransmissionSystems (FACTS), Genetic Algorithm, Low Frequency Oscillations, Single-machine Infinite Bus Power System.

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Authors: Rahib Abiyev, Vasif H. Abiyev, C. Ardil

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In this paper the development of neural network based fuzzy inference system for electricity consumption prediction is considered. The electricity consumption depends on number of factors, such as number of customers, seasons, type-s of customers, number of plants, etc. It is nonlinear process and can be described by chaotic time-series. The structure and algorithms of neuro-fuzzy system for predicting future values of electricity consumption is described. To determine the unknown coefficients of the system, the supervised learning algorithm is used. As a result of learning, the rules of neuro-fuzzy system are formed. The developed system is applied for predicting future values of electricity consumption of Northern Cyprus. The simulation of neuro-fuzzy system has been performed.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, neural network, neuro-fuzzy system, neuro-fuzzy prediction.

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Authors: Guy Leshem, Ya'acov Ritov

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Traffic Management and Information Systems, which rely on a system of sensors, aim to describe in real-time traffic in urban areas using a set of parameters and estimating them. Though the state of the art focuses on data analysis, little is done in the sense of prediction. In this paper, we describe a machine learning system for traffic flow management and control for a prediction of traffic flow problem. This new algorithm is obtained by combining Random Forests algorithm into Adaboost algorithm as a weak learner. We show that our algorithm performs relatively well on real data, and enables, according to the Traffic Flow Evaluation model, to estimate and predict whether there is congestion or not at a given time on road intersections.

Keywords: Machine Learning, Boosting, Classification, TrafficCongestion, Data Collecting, Magnetic Loop Detectors, SignalizedIntersections, Traffic Signal Timing Optimization.

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Authors: EL-Sayed M. M. EL-Refaie, Mohamed R. Salem, Wael A. Ahmed

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Power systems and transformer are intrinsic apparatus, therefore its reliability and safe operation is important to determine their operation conditions, and the industry uses quality control tests in the insulation design of oil filled transformers. Hence the service period effect on AC dielectric strength is significant. The effect of aging on transformer oil physical, chemical and electrical properties was studied using the international testing methods for the evaluation of transformer oil quality. The study was carried out on six transformers operate in the field and for monitoring periods over twenty years. The properties which are strongly time dependent were specified and those which have a great impact on the transformer oil acidity, breakdown voltage and dissolved gas analysis were defined. Several tests on the transformers oil were studied to know the time of purifying or changing it, moreover prediction of the characteristics of it under different operation conditions.

Keywords: Dissolved Gas Analysis, Prediction, Purifying and Changing.

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Authors: A. A. Pawar, R. R. Kulkarni

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For numerical prediction of the NOX in the exhaust of a compression ignition engine a model was developed by considering the parameter equivalence ratio. This model was validated by comparing the predicted results of NOX with experimental ones. The ultimate aim of the work was to access the applicability, robustness and performance of the improved NOX model against other NOX models.

Keywords: Biodiesel fueled engine, equivalence ratio, Compression ignition engine, exhausts gas temperature, NOX formation.

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Authors: Sokkhey Phauk, Takeo Okazaki

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The challenging task in educational institutions is to maximize the high performance of students and minimize the failure rate of poor-performing students. An effective method to leverage this task is to know student learning patterns with highly influencing factors and get an early prediction of student learning outcomes at the timely stage for setting up policies for improvement. Educational data mining (EDM) is an emerging disciplinary field of data mining, statistics, and machine learning concerned with extracting useful knowledge and information for the sake of improvement and development in the education environment. The study is of this work is to propose techniques in EDM and integrate it into a web-based system for predicting poor-performing students. A comparative study of prediction models is conducted. Subsequently, high performing models are developed to get higher performance. The hybrid random forest (Hybrid RF) produces the most successful classification. For the context of intervention and improving the learning outcomes, a feature selection method MICHI, which is the combination of mutual information (MI) and chi-square (CHI) algorithms based on the ranked feature scores, is introduced to select a dominant feature set that improves the performance of prediction and uses the obtained dominant set as information for intervention. By using the proposed techniques of EDM, an academic performance prediction system (APPS) is subsequently developed for educational stockholders to get an early prediction of student learning outcomes for timely intervention. Experimental outcomes and evaluation surveys report the effectiveness and usefulness of the developed system. The system is used to help educational stakeholders and related individuals for intervening and improving student performance.

Keywords: Academic performance prediction system, prediction model, educational data mining, dominant factors, feature selection methods, student performance.

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Authors: Salinee Thumronglaohapun

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The proper number and appropriate locations of service centers can save cost, raise revenue and gain more satisfaction from customers. Establishing service centers is high-cost and difficult to relocate. In long-term planning periods, several factors may affect the service. One of the most critical factors is uncertain demand of customers. The opened service centers need to be capable of serving customers and making a profit although the demand in each period is changed. In this work, the capacitated location-allocation problem with stochastic demand is considered. A mathematical model is formulated to determine suitable locations of service centers and their allocation to maximize total profit for multiple planning periods. Two heuristic methods, a local search and genetic algorithm, are used to solve this problem. For the local search, five different chances to choose each type of moves are applied. For the genetic algorithm, three different replacement strategies are considered. The results of applying each method to solve numerical examples are compared. Both methods reach to the same best found solution in most examples but the genetic algorithm provides better solutions in some cases.

Keywords: Location-allocation problem, stochastic demand, local search, genetic algorithm.

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Authors: Baeza S. Roberto

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The knitted fabric suffers a deformation in its dimensions due to stretching and tension factors, transverse and longitudinal respectively, during the process in rectilinear knitting machines so it performs a dry relaxation shrinkage procedure and thermal action of prefixed to obtain stable conditions in the knitting. This paper presents a dry relaxation shrinkage prediction of Bordeaux fiber using a feed forward neural network and linear regression models. Six operational alternatives of shrinkage were predicted. A comparison of the results was performed finding neural network models with higher levels of explanation of the variability and prediction. The presence of different reposes is included. The models were obtained through a neural toolbox of Matlab and Minitab software with real data in a knitting company of Southern Guanajuato. The results allow predicting dry relaxation shrinkage of each alternative operation.

Keywords: Neural network, dry relaxation, knitting, linear regression.

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Authors: Marc Solé, Francesc Giné, Magda Valls, Nina Bijedic

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What people say on social media has turned into a rich source of information to understand social behavior. Specifically, the growing use of Twitter social media for political communication has arisen high opportunities to know the opinion of large numbers of politically active individuals in real time and predict the global political tendencies of a specific country. It has led to an increasing body of research on this topic. The majority of these studies have been focused on polarized political contexts characterized by only two alternatives. Unlike them, this paper tackles the challenge of forecasting Spanish political trends, characterized by multiple political parties, by means of analyzing the Twitters Users political tendency. According to this, a new strategy, named Tweets Analysis Strategy (TAS), is proposed. This is based on analyzing the users tweets by means of discovering its sentiment (positive, negative or neutral) and classifying them according to the political party they support. From this individual political tendency, the global political prediction for each political party is calculated. In order to do this, two different strategies for analyzing the sentiment analysis are proposed: one is based on Positive and Negative words Matching (PNM) and the second one is based on a Neural Networks Strategy (NNS). The complete TAS strategy has been performed in a Big-Data environment. The experimental results presented in this paper reveal that NNS strategy performs much better than PNM strategy to analyze the tweet sentiment. In addition, this research analyzes the viability of the TAS strategy to obtain the global trend in a political context make up by multiple parties with an error lower than 23%.

Keywords: Political tendency, prediction, sentiment analysis, Twitter.

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Authors: Xiaodong Li, Peng Gao, Chao-Jung Huang, Shiying Hao, Xuefeng B. Ling, Yongxia Han, Yaqi Zhang, Le Zheng, Chengyin Ye, Modi Liu, Minjie Xia, Changlin Fu, Bo Jin, Karl G. Sylvester, Eric Widen

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Predicting the risk of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma (PA) in advance can benefit the quality of care and potentially reduce population mortality and morbidity. The aim of this study was to develop and prospectively validate a risk prediction model to identify patients at risk of new incident PA as early as 3 months before the onset of PA in a statewide, general population in Maine. The PA prediction model was developed using Deep Neural Networks, a deep learning algorithm, with a 2-year electronic-health-record (EHR) cohort. Prospective results showed that our model identified 54.35% of all inpatient episodes of PA, and 91.20% of all PA that required subsequent chemoradiotherapy, with a lead-time of up to 3 months and a true alert of 67.62%. The risk assessment tool has attained an improved discriminative ability. It can be immediately deployed to the health system to provide automatic early warnings to adults at risk of PA. It has potential to identify personalized risk factors to facilitate customized PA interventions.

Keywords: Cancer prediction, deep learning, electronic health records, pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

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Authors: Marine Segui, Ruxandra Mihaela Botez

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OpenVSP is an aerodynamic solver developed by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) that allows building a reliable model of an aircraft. This software performs an aerodynamic simulation according to the angle of attack of the aircraft makes between the incoming airstream, and its speed. A reliable aerodynamic model of the Cessna Citation X was designed but it required a lot of computation time. As a consequence, a prediction method was established that allowed predicting lift and drag coefficients for all Mach numbers and for all angles of attack, exclusively for stall conditions, from a computation of three angles of attack and only one Mach number. Aerodynamic coefficients given by the prediction method for a Cessna Citation X model were finally compared with aerodynamics coefficients obtained using a complete OpenVSP study.

Keywords: Aerodynamic, coefficient, cruise, improving, longitudinal, OpenVSP, solver, time.

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Authors: Amir Gandomkar, Tahereh Soltani Gord faramarzi, Parisa Safaripour Chafi, Abdol-Reza Amani

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Temperature, humidity and precipitation in an area, are parameters proved influential in the climate of that area, and one should recognize them so that he can determine the climate of that area. Climate changes are of primary importance in climatology, and in recent years, have been of great concern to researchers and even politicians and organizations, for they can play an important role in social, political and economic activities. Even though the real cause of climate changes or their stability is not yet fully recognized, they are a matter of concern to researchers and their importance for countries has prompted them to investigate climate changes in different levels, especially in regional, national and continental level. This issue has less been investigated in our country. However, in recent years, there have been some researches and conferences on climate changes. This study is also in line with such researches and tries to investigate and analyze the trends of climate changes (temperature and precipitation) in Sefid-roud (the name of a river) basin. Three parameters of mean annual precipitation, temperature, and maximum and minimum temperatures in 36 synoptic and climatology stations in a statistical period of 49 years (1956-2005) in the stations of Sefid-roud basin were analyzed by Mann-Kendall test. The results obtained by data analysis show that climate changes are short term and have a trend. The analysis of mean temperature revealed that changes have a significantly rising trend, besides the precipitation has a significantly falling trend.

Keywords: Trend, Climate changes, Sefid-roud, Mann-Kendall

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Authors: Nor Azuana Ramli, Mohd Tahir Ismail, Hooy Chee Wooi

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Developing a stable early warning system (EWS) model that is capable to give an accurate prediction is a challenging task. This paper introduces k-nearest neighbour (k-NN) method which never been applied in predicting currency crisis before with the aim of increasing the prediction accuracy. The proposed k-NN performance depends on the choice of a distance that is used where in our analysis; we take the Euclidean distance and the Manhattan as a consideration. For the comparison, we employ three other methods which are logistic regression analysis (logit), back-propagation neural network (NN) and sequential minimal optimization (SMO). The analysis using datasets from 8 countries and 13 macro-economic indicators for each country shows that the proposed k-NN method with k = 4 and Manhattan distance performs better than the other methods.

Keywords: Currency crisis, k-nearest neighbour method, logit, neural network.

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Authors: Chyn Liaw, Chun-Wei Tung, Shinn-Jang Ho, Shinn-Ying Ho

Abstract:

The γ-turns play important roles in protein folding and molecular recognition. The prediction and analysis of γ-turn types are important for both protein structure predictions and better understanding the characteristics of different γ-turn types. This study proposed a physicochemical property-based decision tree (PPDT) method to interpretably predict γ-turn types. In addition to the good prediction performance of PPDT, three simple and human interpretable IF-THEN rules are extracted from the decision tree constructed by PPDT. The identified informative physicochemical properties and concise rules provide a simple way for discriminating and understanding γ-turn types.

Keywords: Classification and regression tree (CART), γ-turn, Physicochemical properties, Protein secondary structure.

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Authors: Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Mary Nsabagwa, Triphonia Jacob Ngailo, Joachim Reuder, Sch¨attler Ulrich, Musa Semujju

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The Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are considered powerful tools for guiding quantitative rainfall prediction. A couple of NWP models exist and are used at many operational weather prediction centers. This study considers two models namely the Consortium for Small–scale Modeling (COSMO) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It compares the models’ ability to predict rainfall over Uganda for the period 21st April 2013 to 10th May 2013 using the root mean square (RMSE) and the mean error (ME). In comparing the performance of the models, this study assesses their ability to predict light rainfall events and extreme rainfall events. All the experiments used the default parameterization configurations and with same horizontal resolution (7 Km). The results show that COSMO model had a tendency of largely predicting no rain which explained its under–prediction. The COSMO model (RMSE: 14.16; ME: -5.91) presented a significantly (p = 0.014) higher magnitude of error compared to the WRF model (RMSE: 11.86; ME: -1.09). However the COSMO model (RMSE: 3.85; ME: 1.39) performed significantly (p = 0.003) better than the WRF model (RMSE: 8.14; ME: 5.30) in simulating light rainfall events. All the models under–predicted extreme rainfall events with the COSMO model (RMSE: 43.63; ME: -39.58) presenting significantly higher error magnitudes than the WRF model (RMSE: 35.14; ME: -26.95). This study recommends additional diagnosis of the models’ treatment of deep convection over the tropics.

Keywords: Comparative performance, the COSMO model, the WRF model, light rainfall events, extreme rainfall events.

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Authors: Irene Luque Ruiz, Manuel Urbano Cuadrado, Miguel Ángel Gómez-Nieto

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In this paper we study different similarity based approaches for the development of QSAR model devoted to the prediction of activity of antiobesity drugs. Classical similarity approaches are compared regarding to dissimilarity models based on the consideration of the calculation of Euclidean distances between the nonisomorphic fragments extracted in the matching process. Combining the classical similarity and dissimilarity approaches into a new similarity measure, the Approximate Similarity was also studied, and better results were obtained. The application of the proposed method to the development of quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR) has provided reliable tools for predicting of inhibitory activity of drugs. Acceptable results were obtained for the models presented here.

Keywords: Graph similarity, Nonisomorphic dissimilarity, Approximate similarity, Drugs activity prediction.

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Authors: Hamza Nejib, Okba Taouali

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This paper presents two of the most knowing kernel adaptive filtering (KAF) approaches, the kernel least mean squares and the kernel recursive least squares, in order to predict a new output of nonlinear signal processing. Both of these methods implement a nonlinear transfer function using kernel methods in a particular space named reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) where the model is a linear combination of kernel functions applied to transform the observed data from the input space to a high dimensional feature space of vectors, this idea known as the kernel trick. Then KAF is the developing filters in RKHS. We use two nonlinear signal processing problems, Mackey Glass chaotic time series prediction and nonlinear channel equalization to figure the performance of the approaches presented and finally to result which of them is the adapted one.

Keywords: KLMS, online prediction, KAF, signal processing, RKHS, Kernel methods, KRLS, KLMS.

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Authors: S. A. A. Korori, H. Valipour K., S. Shabestani, A. shirvany, M. Matinizadeh

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Tehran, one of the heavily-populated capitals, is severely suffering from increasing air pollution. To show a documented trend of such pollutants during last years, plane tree species (Platanus orientalis) were suited to be studied as indicators, for the species have been planted throughout the city many years ago. Two areas (Saadatabad and Narmak districts) allotting different contents of crowed and highly-traffic routs but the same ecological characteristics were selected. Twelve sample individuals were cored twice perpendicularly in each area. Tree-rings of each core were measured by a binocular microscope and separated annually for the last 25 years. Two heavy metals including Cd and Pb accompanied by a mineral element (Ca) were analyzed using Hatch method. Treerings analysis of the two areas showed different groups in term of physiologically ability as the growths were plunged during the last 10 years in Saadatabad district and showed a slight decrease in the same period for another studying area. In direct contrast to decreasing growth trend in Saadatabad, all three mentioned elements increased sharply during last 25 years in the same area. When it came to Narmak district, the trend was completely different with Saadatabad. There were some fluctuations in absorbing trace elements like tree-rings widths were, yet calcium showed an upward trend all the last 25 years. The results of the study proved the possibility of using tree species of each region to monitor its air pollution trends of the past, hence to depict a pollution assessment of a populated city for last years and then to make appropriate decisions for the future as it is well-known what the trend is. On the other hand, risen values of calcium (as the stress-indicator element) accompanied by increased trace elements suggests non-sustainable state of the trees.

Keywords: Air pollution, Platanus orientalis, Tehran, Traceelements, Tree rings.

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Authors: S. Panda, J. S. Yadav, N. P. Patidar, C. Ardil

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Recently, genetic algorithms (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) technique have attracted considerable attention among various modern heuristic optimization techniques. The GA has been popular in academia and the industry mainly because of its intuitiveness, ease of implementation, and the ability to effectively solve highly non-linear, mixed integer optimization problems that are typical of complex engineering systems. PSO technique is a relatively recent heuristic search method whose mechanics are inspired by the swarming or collaborative behavior of biological populations. In this paper both PSO and GA optimization are employed for finding stable reduced order models of single-input- single-output large-scale linear systems. Both the techniques guarantee stability of reduced order model if the original high order model is stable. PSO method is based on the minimization of the Integral Squared Error (ISE) between the transient responses of original higher order model and the reduced order model pertaining to a unit step input. Both the methods are illustrated through numerical example from literature and the results are compared with recently published conventional model reduction technique.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithm, Particle Swarm Optimization, Order Reduction, Stability, Transfer Function, Integral Squared Error.

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Authors: M. F. V. Montezuma, E. P. Deus, M. C. Carvalho

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Steel bridges are normally subjected to random loads with different traffic frequencies. They are structures with dynamic behavior and are subject to fatigue failure process, where the nucleation of a crack, growth and failure can occur. After locating and determining the size of an existing fault, it is important to predict the crack propagation and the convenient time for repair. Therefore, fracture mechanics and fatigue concepts are essential to the right approach to the problem. To study the fatigue crack growth, a computational code was developed by using the root mean square (RMS) and the cycle-by-cycle models. One observes the variable amplitude loading influence on the life structural prediction. Different loads histories and initial crack length were considered as input variables. Thus, it was evaluated the dispersion of results of the expected structural life choosing different initial parameters.

Keywords: Fatigue crack propagation, life prediction, variable loadings, steel bridges.

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Authors: Masahiro Ohmura, Koh Kakusho, Takeshi Okadome

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This paper presents a regression model with autocorrelated errors in which the inputs are social moods obtained by analyzing the adjectives in Twitter posts using a document topic model, where document topics are extracted using LDA. The regression model predicts Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) more precisely than autoregressive moving-average models.

Keywords: Regression model, social mood, stock market prediction, Twitter.

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Authors: E. Ardil, Erdem Uçar, Parvinder S. Sandhu

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As the majority of faults are found in a few of its modules so there is a need to investigate the modules that are affected severely as compared to other modules and proper maintenance need to be done on time especially for the critical applications. In this paper, we have explored the different predictor models to NASA-s public domain defect dataset coded in Perl programming language. Different machine learning algorithms belonging to the different learner categories of the WEKA project including Mamdani Based Fuzzy Inference System and Neuro-fuzzy based system have been evaluated for the modeling of maintenance severity or impact of fault severity. The results are recorded in terms of Accuracy, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The results show that Neuro-fuzzy based model provides relatively better prediction accuracy as compared to other models and hence, can be used for the maintenance severity prediction of the software.

Keywords: Software Metrics, Fuzzy, Neuro-Fuzzy, SoftwareFaults, Accuracy, MAE, RMSE.

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Authors: Chang S. Woo, Hyun S. Park, Wan D. Kim

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Fatigue life prediction and evaluation are the key technologies to assure the safety and reliability of automotive rubber components. The objective of this study is to develop the fatigue analysis process for vulcanized rubber components, which is applicable to predict fatigue life at initial product design step. Fatigue life prediction methodology of vulcanized natural rubber was proposed by incorporating the finite element analysis and fatigue damage parameter of maximum strain appearing at the critical location determined from fatigue test. In order to develop an appropriate fatigue damage parameter of the rubber material, a series of displacement controlled fatigue test was conducted using threedimensional dumbbell specimen with different levels of mean displacement. It was shown that the maximum strain was a proper damage parameter, taking the mean displacement effects into account. Nonlinear finite element analyses of three-dimensional dumbbell specimens were performed based on a hyper-elastic material model determined from the uni-axial tension, equi-biaxial tension and planar test. Fatigue analysis procedure employed in this study could be used approximately for the fatigue design.

Keywords: Rubber, Material test, Finite element analysis, Strain, Fatigue test, Fatigue life prediction.

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Authors: Chia-Ta Tsai, Wen-Lin Huang, Shinn-Jang Ho, Li-Sun Shu, Shinn-Ying Ho

Abstract:

Prediction of bacterial virulent protein sequences can give assistance to identification and characterization of novel virulence-associated factors and discover drug/vaccine targets against proteins indispensable to pathogenicity. Gene Ontology (GO) annotation which describes functions of genes and gene products as a controlled vocabulary of terms has been shown effectively for a variety of tasks such as gene expression study, GO annotation prediction, protein subcellular localization, etc. In this study, we propose a sequence-based method Virulent-GO by mining informative GO terms as features for predicting bacterial virulent proteins. Each protein in the datasets used by the existing method VirulentPred is annotated by using BLAST to obtain its homologies with known accession numbers for retrieving GO terms. After investigating various popular classifiers using the same five-fold cross-validation scheme, Virulent-GO using the single kind of GO term features with an accuracy of 82.5% is slightly better than VirulentPred with 81.8% using five kinds of sequence-based features. For the evaluation of independent test, Virulent-GO also yields better results (82.0%) than VirulentPred (80.7%). When evaluating single kind of feature with SVM, the GO term feature performs much well, compared with each of the five kinds of features.

Keywords: Bacterial virulence factors, GO terms, prediction, protein sequence.

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Authors: Chuan-Ching Sue, Shi-Zhou Chen, Ting-Yu Huang

Abstract:

Dynamic bandwidth allocation in EPONs can be generally separated into inter-ONU scheduling and intra-ONU scheduling. In our previous work, the active intra-ONU scheduling (AS) utilizes multiple queue reports (QRs) in each report message to cooperate with the inter-ONU scheduling and makes the granted bandwidth fully utilized without leaving unused slot remainder (USR). This scheme successfully solves the USR problem originating from the inseparability of Ethernet frame. However, without proper setting of threshold value in AS, the number of QRs constrained by the IEEE 802.3ah standard is not enough, especially in the unbalanced traffic environment. This limitation may be solved by enlarging the threshold value. The large threshold implies the large gap between the adjacent QRs, thus resulting in the large difference between the best granted bandwidth and the real granted bandwidth. In this paper, we integrate AS with a cooperative prediction mechanism and distribute multiple QRs to reduce the penalty brought by the prediction error. Furthermore, to improve the QoS and save the usage of queue reports, the highest priority (EF) traffic which comes during the waiting time is granted automatically by OLT and is not considered in the requested bandwidth of ONU. The simulation results show that the proposed scheme has better performance metrics in terms of bandwidth utilization and average delay for different classes of packets.

Keywords: EPON, Inter-ONU and Intra-ONU scheduling, Prediction, Unused slot remainder

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Authors: Sofien Chtourou, Mohamed Chtourou, Omar Hammami

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Embedded systems need to respect stringent real time constraints. Various hardware components included in such systems such as cache memories exhibit variability and therefore affect execution time. Indeed, a cache memory access from an embedded microprocessor might result in a cache hit where the data is available or a cache miss and the data need to be fetched with an additional delay from an external memory. It is therefore highly desirable to predict future memory accesses during execution in order to appropriately prefetch data without incurring delays. In this paper, we evaluate the potential of several artificial neural networks for the prediction of instruction memory addresses. Neural network have the potential to tackle the nonlinear behavior observed in memory accesses during program execution and their demonstrated numerous hardware implementation emphasize this choice over traditional forecasting techniques for their inclusion in embedded systems. However, embedded applications execute millions of instructions and therefore millions of addresses to be predicted. This very challenging problem of neural network based prediction of large time series is approached in this paper by evaluating various neural network architectures based on the recurrent neural network paradigm with pre-processing based on the Self Organizing Map (SOM) classification technique.

Keywords: Address, data set, memory, prediction, recurrentneural network.

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Authors: Mahdi Yaghobi, Mohammad Haeri

Abstract:

The current methods of predictive controllers are utilized for those processes in which the rate of output variations is not high. For such processes, therefore, stability can be achieved by implementing the constrained predictive controller or applying infinite prediction horizon. When the rate of the output growth is high (e.g. for unstable nonminimum phase process) the stabilization seems to be problematic. In order to avoid this, it is suggested to change the method in the way that: first, the prediction error growth should be decreased at the early stage of the prediction horizon, and second, the rate of the error variation should be penalized. The growth of the error is decreased through adjusting its weighting coefficients in the cost function. Reduction in the error variation is possible by adding the first order derivate of the error into the cost function. By studying different examples it is shown that using these two remedies together, the closed-loop stability of unstable nonminimum phase process can be achieved.

Keywords: GPC, Stability, Varying Weighting Coefficients.

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Authors: Yu Zhao, Min Zhang, Yuanqian Wang, Qiuyu Yu

Abstract:

The prediction of aesthetics of apparel is helpful for the development of a new type of apparel. This study is to build the quantitative relationship between the aesthetics and its design parameters. In particular, women’s pants have been preliminarily studied. This aforementioned relationship has been carried out by statistical analysis. The contributions of this study include the development of a more personalized apparel design mechanism and the provision of some empirical knowledge for the development of other products in the aspect of aesthetics.

Keywords: Aesthetics, crease line, cropped straight leg pants, knee width.

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Authors: Sagir M. Yusuf, Chris Baber

Abstract:

In this paper, we describe how to achieve knowledge understanding and prediction (Situation Awareness (SA)) for multiple-agents conducting searching activity using Bayesian inferential reasoning and learning. Bayesian Belief Network was used to monitor agents' knowledge about their environment, and cases are recorded for the network training using expectation-maximisation or gradient descent algorithm. The well trained network will be used for decision making and environmental situation prediction. Forest fire searching by multiple UAVs was the use case. UAVs are tasked to explore a forest and find a fire for urgent actions by the fire wardens. The paper focused on two problems: (i) effective agents’ path planning strategy and (ii) knowledge understanding and prediction (SA). The path planning problem by inspiring animal mode of foraging using Lévy distribution augmented with Bayesian reasoning was fully described in this paper. Results proof that the Lévy flight strategy performs better than the previous fixed-pattern (e.g., parallel sweeps) approaches in terms of energy and time utilisation. We also introduced a waypoint assessment strategy called k-previous waypoints assessment. It improves the performance of the ordinary levy flight by saving agent’s resources and mission time through redundant search avoidance. The agents (UAVs) are to report their mission knowledge at the central server for interpretation and prediction purposes. Bayesian reasoning and learning were used for the SA and results proof effectiveness in different environments scenario in terms of prediction and effective knowledge representation. The prediction accuracy was measured using learning error rate, logarithm loss, and Brier score and the result proves that little agents mission that can be used for prediction within the same or different environment. Finally, we described a situation-based knowledge visualization and prediction technique for heterogeneous multi-UAV mission. While this paper proves linkage of Bayesian reasoning and learning with SA and effective searching strategy, future works is focusing on simplifying the architecture.

Keywords: Lèvy flight, situation awareness, multi-agent system, multi-robot coordination, autonomous system, swarm intelligence.

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