Search results for: first passage probability theory
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2127

Search results for: first passage probability theory

1887 The Applications of Four Fingers Theory: The Proof of 66 Acupoints under the Human Elbow and Knee

Authors: Chih-I. Tsai, Yu-Chien. Lin

Abstract:

Through experiences of clinical practices, it is discovered that locations on the body at a level of four fingerbreadth above and below the joints are the points at which muscles connect to tendons, and since the muscles and tendons possess opposite characteristics, muscles are full of blood but lack qi, while tendons are full of qi but lack blood, these points on our body become easily blocked. It is proposed that through doing acupuncture or creating localized pressure to the areas four fingerbreadths above and below our joints, with an elastic bandage, we could help the energy, also known as qi, to flow smoothly in our body and further improve our health. Based on the Four Fingers Theory, we understand that human height is 22 four fingerbreadths. In addition, qi and blood travel through 24 meridians, 50 times each day, and they flow through 6 cun with every human breath. We can also understand the average number of human heartbeats is 75 times per minute. And the function of qi-blood circulation system in Traditional Chinese Medicine is the same as the blood circulation in Western Medical Science. Informed by Four Fingers Theory, this study further examined its applications in acupuncture practices. The research question is how Four Fingers Theory proves what has been mentioned in Nei Jing that there are 66 acupoints under a human’s elbow and knee. In responding to the research question, there are 66 acupoints under a human’s elbow and knee. Four Fingers Theory facilitated the creation of the acupuncture naming and teaching system. It is expected to serve as an approachable and effective way to deliver knowledge of acupuncture to the public worldwide.

Keywords: Four Fingers theory, Meridians circulation, 66 Acupoints under a human’s elbow and knee, acupuncture.

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1886 Danger Theory and Intelligent Data Processing

Authors: Anjum Iqbal, Mohd Aizaini Maarof

Abstract:

Artificial Immune System (AIS) is relatively naive paradigm for intelligent computations. The inspiration for AIS is derived from natural Immune System (IS). Classically it is believed that IS strives to discriminate between self and non-self. Most of the existing AIS research is based on this approach. Danger Theory (DT) argues this approach and proposes that IS fights against danger producing elements and tolerates others. We, the computational researchers, are not concerned with the arguments among immunologists but try to extract from it novel abstractions for intelligent computation. This paper aims to follow DT inspiration for intelligent data processing. The approach may introduce new avenue in intelligent processing. The data used is system calls data that is potentially significant in intrusion detection applications.

Keywords: artificial immune system, danger theory, intelligent processing, system calls

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1885 Fragility Analysis of Weir Structure Subjected to Flooding Water Damage

Authors: Oh Hyeon Jeon, WooYoung Jung

Abstract:

In this study, seepage analysis was performed by the level difference between upstream and downstream of weir structure for safety evaluation of weir structure against flooding. Monte Carlo Simulation method was employed by considering the probability distribution of the adjacent ground parameter, i.e., permeability coefficient of weir structure. Moreover, by using a commercially available finite element program (ABAQUS), modeling of the weir structure is carried out. Based on this model, the characteristic of water seepage during flooding was determined at each water level with consideration of the uncertainty of their corresponding permeability coefficient. Subsequently, fragility function could be constructed based on this response from numerical analysis; this fragility function results could be used to determine the weakness of weir structure subjected to flooding disaster. They can also be used as a reference data that can comprehensively predict the probability of failur,e and the degree of damage of a weir structure.

Keywords: Weir structure, seepage, flood disaster fragility, probabilistic risk assessment, Monte-Carlo Simulation, permeability coefficient.

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1884 Video-On-Demand QoE Evaluation across Different Age-Groups and Its Significance for Network Capacity

Authors: Mujtaba Roshan, John A. Schormans

Abstract:

Quality of Experience (QoE) drives churn in the broadband networks industry, and good QoE plays a large part in the retention of customers. QoE is known to be affected by the Quality of Service (QoS) factors packet loss probability (PLP), delay and delay jitter caused by the network. Earlier results have shown that the relationship between these QoS factors and QoE is non-linear, and may vary from application to application. We use the network emulator Netem as the basis for experimentation, and evaluate how QoE varies as we change the emulated QoS metrics. Focusing on Video-on-Demand, we discovered that the reported QoE may differ widely for users of different age groups, and that the most demanding age group (the youngest) can require an order of magnitude lower PLP to achieve the same QoE than is required by the most widely studied age group of users. We then used a bottleneck TCP model to evaluate the capacity cost of achieving an order of magnitude decrease in PLP, and found it be (almost always) a 3-fold increase in link capacity that was required.

Keywords: Quality of experience, quality of service, packet loss probability, network capacity.

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1883 Structural Study of Boron - Nitride Nanotube with Magnetic Resonance (NMR) Parameters Calculation via Density Functional Theory Method (DFT)

Authors: Asadollah Boshra, Ahmad Seif, Mehran Aghaei

Abstract:

A model of (4, 4) single-walled boron-nitride nanotube as a representative of armchair boron-nitride nanotubes studied. At first the structure optimization performed and then Nuclear Magnetic Resonance parameters (NMR) by Density Functional Theory (DFT) method at 11B and 15N nuclei calculated. Resulted parameters evaluation presents electrostatic environment heterogeneity along the nanotube and especially at the ends but the nuclei in a layer feel the same electrostatic environment. All of calculations carried out using Gaussian 98 Software package.

Keywords: Boron-nitride nanotube, Density Functional Theory, Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR).

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1882 Embodied Cognition and Its Implications in Education: An Overview of Recent Literature

Authors: Panagiotis Kosmas, Panayiotis Zaphiris

Abstract:

Embodied Cognition (EC) as a learning paradigm is based on the idea of an inseparable link between body, mind, and environment. In recent years, the advent of theoretical learning approaches around EC theory has resulted in a number of empirical studies exploring the implementation of the theory in education. This systematic literature overview identifies the mainstream of EC research and emphasizes on the implementation of the theory across learning environments. Based on a corpus of 43 manuscripts, published between 2013 and 2017, it sets out to describe the range of topics covered under the umbrella of EC and provides a holistic view of the field. The aim of the present review is to investigate the main issues in EC research related to the various learning contexts. Particularly, the study addresses the research methods and technologies that are utilized, and it also explores the integration of body into the learning context. An important finding from the overview is the potential of the theory in different educational environments and disciplines. However, there is a lack of an explicit pedagogical framework from an educational perspective for a successful implementation in various learning contexts.

Keywords: Embodied cognition, embodied learning, education, technology, schools.

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1881 Efficient Detection Using Sequential Probability Ratio Test in Mobile Cognitive Radio Systems

Authors: Yeon-Jea Cho, Sang-Uk Park, Won-Chul Choi, Dong-Jo Park

Abstract:

This paper proposes a smart design strategy for a sequential detector to reliably detect the primary user-s signal, especially in fast fading environments. We study the computation of the log-likelihood ratio for coping with a fast changing received signal and noise sample variances, which are considered random variables. First, we analyze the detectability of the conventional generalized log-likelihood ratio (GLLR) scheme when considering fast changing statistics of unknown parameters caused by fast fading effects. Secondly, we propose an efficient sensing algorithm for performing the sequential probability ratio test in a robust and efficient manner when the channel statistics are unknown. Finally, the proposed scheme is compared to the conventional method with simulation results with respect to the average number of samples required to reach a detection decision.

Keywords: Cognitive radio, fast fading, sequential detection, spectrum sensing.

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1880 Net-Banking System as a Game

Authors: N. Ghoualmi-Zine, A. Araar

Abstract:

In this article we propose to model Net-banking system by game theory. We adopt extensive game to model our web application. We present the model in term of players and strategy. We present UML diagram related the protocol game.

Keywords: Game theory, model, state, web application.

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1879 Non-equilibrium Statistical Mechanics of a Driven Lattice Gas Model: Probability Function, FDT-violation, and Monte Carlo Simulations

Authors: K. Sudprasert, M. Precharattana, N. Nuttavut, D. Triampo, B. Pattanasiri, Y. Lenbury, W. Triampo

Abstract:

The study of non-equilibrium systems has attracted increasing interest in recent years, mainly due to the lack of theoretical frameworks, unlike their equilibrium counterparts. Studying the steady state and/or simple systems is thus one of the main interests. Hence in this work we have focused our attention on the driven lattice gas model (DLG model) consisting of interacting particles subject to an external field E. The dynamics of the system are given by hopping of particles to nearby empty sites with rates biased for jumps in the direction of E. Having used small two dimensional systems of DLG model, the stochastic properties at nonequilibrium steady state were analytically studied. To understand the non-equilibrium phenomena, we have applied the analytic approach via master equation to calculate probability function and analyze violation of detailed balance in term of the fluctuation-dissipation theorem. Monte Carlo simulations have been performed to validate the analytic results.

Keywords: Non-equilibrium, lattice gas, stochastic process

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1878 A Degraded Practical MIMOME Channel: Issues Insecret Data Communications

Authors: Mohammad Rakibul Islam

Abstract:

In this paper, a Gaussian multiple input multiple output multiple eavesdropper (MIMOME) channel is considered where a transmitter communicates to a receiver in the presence of an eavesdropper. We present a technique for determining the secrecy capacity of the multiple input multiple output (MIMO) channel under Gaussian noise. We transform the degraded MIMOME channel into multiple single input multiple output (SIMO) Gaussian wire-tap channels and then use scalar approach to convert it into two equivalent multiple input single output (MISO) channels. The secrecy capacity model is then developed for the condition where the channel state information (CSI) for main channel only is known to the transmitter. The results show that the secret communication is possible when the eavesdropper channel noise is greater than a cutoff noise level. The outage probability is also analyzed of secrecy capacity is also analyzed. The effect of fading and outage probability is also analyzed.

Keywords: Secrecy capacity, MIMO, wiretap channel, covariance matrix, fading.

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1877 The Story of Mergers and Acquisitions: Using Narrative Theory to Understand the Uncertainty of Organizational Change

Authors: Philip T. Roundy

Abstract:

This paper examines the influence of communication form on employee uncertainty during mergers and acquisitions (M&As). Specifically, the author uses narrative theory to analyze how narrative organizational communication affects the three components of uncertainty – decreased predictive, explanatory, and descriptive ability. It is hypothesized that employees whose organizations use narrative M&A communication will have greater predictive, explanatory, and descriptive abilities than employees of organizations using non-narrative M&A communication. This paper contributes to the stream of research examining uncertainty during mergers and acquisitions and argues that narratives are an effective means of managing uncertainty in the mergers and acquisitions context.

Keywords: Narrative Theory, Mergers and Acquisitions, Employee Uncertainty.

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1876 Generalized Mean-field Theory of Phase Unwrapping via Multiple Interferograms

Authors: Yohei Saika

Abstract:

On the basis of Bayesian inference using the maximizer of the posterior marginal estimate, we carry out phase unwrapping using multiple interferograms via generalized mean-field theory. Numerical calculations for a typical wave-front in remote sensing using the synthetic aperture radar interferometry, phase diagram in hyper-parameter space clarifies that the present method succeeds in phase unwrapping perfectly under the constraint of surface- consistency condition, if the interferograms are not corrupted by any noises. Also, we find that prior is useful for extending a phase in which phase unwrapping under the constraint of the surface-consistency condition. These results are quantitatively confirmed by the Monte Carlo simulation.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, generalized mean-field theory, phase unwrapping, statistical mechanics.

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1875 Can Smart Meters Create Smart Behaviour?

Authors: Candice Moy, Damien Guirco, Thomas Boyle

Abstract:

Intelligent technologies are increasingly facilitating sustainable water management strategies in Australia. While this innovation can present clear cost benefits to utilities through immediate leak detection and deference of capital costs, the impact of this technology on households is less distinct. By offering real-time engagement and detailed end-use consumption breakdowns, there is significant potential for demand reduction as a behavioural response to increased information. Despite this potential, passive implementation without well-planned residential engagement strategies is likely to result in a lost opportunity. This paper begins this research process by exploring the effect of smart water meters through the lens of three behaviour change theories. The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), Belief Revision theory (BR) and Practice Theory emphasise different variables that can potentially influence and predict household water engagements. In acknowledging the strengths of each theory, the nuances and complexity of household water engagement can be recognised which can contribute to effective planning for residential smart meter engagement strategies.

Keywords: Behaviour, information, household, smart meters, water.

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1874 Carbon Disulfide Production via Hydrogen Sulfide Methane Reformation

Authors: H. Hosseini, M. Javadi, M. Moghiman, M. H. Ghodsi Rad

Abstract:

Carbon disulfide is widely used for the production of viscose rayon, rubber, and other organic materials and it is a feedstock for the synthesis of sulfuric acid. The objective of this paper is to analyze possibilities for efficient production of CS2 from sour natural gas reformation (H2SMR) (2H2S+CH4 =CS2 +4H2) . Also, the effect of H2S to CH4 feed ratio and reaction temperature on carbon disulfide production is investigated numerically in a reforming reactor. The chemical reaction model is based on an assumed Probability Density Function (PDF) parameterized by the mean and variance of mixture fraction and β-PDF shape. The results show that the major factors influencing CS2 production are reactor temperature. The yield of carbon disulfide increases with increasing H2S to CH4 feed gas ratio (H2S/CH4≤4). Also the yield of C(s) increases with increasing temperature until the temperature reaches to 1000°K, and then due to increase of CS2 production and consumption of C(s), yield of C(s) drops with further increase in the temperature. The predicted CH4 and H2S conversion and yield of carbon disulfide are in good agreement with result of Huang and TRaissi.

Keywords: Carbon disulfide, sour natural gas, H2SMR, probability density function.

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1873 Process-Oriented Learning Requirements for Employees and for Organizations

Authors: Richard Pircher, Lukas Zenk, Hanna Risku

Abstract:

Using activity theory, organisational theory and didactics as theoretical foundations, a comprehensive model of the organisational dimensions relevant for learning and knowledge transfer will be developed. In a second step, a Learning Assessment Guideline will be elaborated. This guideline will be designed to permit a targeted analysis of organisations to identify the status quo in those areas crucial to the implementation of learning and knowledge transfer. In addition, this self-analysis tool will enable learning managers to select adequate didactic models for e- and blended learning. As part of the European Integrated Project "Process-oriented Learning and Information Exchange" (PROLIX), this model of organisational prerequisites for learning and knowledge transfer will be empirically tested in four profit and non-profit organisations in Great Britain, Germany and France (to be finalized in autumn 2006). The findings concern not only the capability of the model of organisational dimensions, but also the predominant perceptions of and obstacles to learning in organisations.

Keywords: Activity theory, knowledge management organisational theory, "Process-oriented Learning and Information Exchange" (PROLIX).

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1872 Strategic Information in the Game of Go

Authors: Michael Harre, Terry Bossomaier, Ranqing Chu, Allan Snyder

Abstract:

We introduce a novel approach to measuring how humans learn based on techniques from information theory and apply it to the oriental game of Go. We show that the total amount of information observable in human strategies, called the strategic information, remains constant for populations of players of differing skill levels for well studied patterns of play. This is despite the very large amount of knowledge required to progress from the recreational players at one end of our spectrum to the very best and most experienced players in the world at the other and is in contrast to the idea that having more knowledge might imply more 'certainty' in what move to play next. We show this is true for very local up to medium sized board patterns, across a variety of different moves using 80,000 game records. Consequences for theoretical and practical AI are outlined.

Keywords: Board Games, Cognitive Capacity, Decision Theory, Information Theory.

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1871 Fault Localization and Alarm Correlation in Optical WDM Networks

Authors: G. Ramesh, S. Sundara Vadivelu

Abstract:

For several high speed networks, providing resilience against failures is an essential requirement. The main feature for designing next generation optical networks is protecting and restoring high capacity WDM networks from the failures. Quick detection, identification and restoration make networks more strong and consistent even though the failures cannot be avoided. Hence, it is necessary to develop fast, efficient and dependable fault localization or detection mechanisms. In this paper we propose a new fault localization algorithm for WDM networks which can identify the location of a failure on a failed lightpath. Our algorithm detects the failed connection and then attempts to reroute data stream through an alternate path. In addition to this, we develop an algorithm to analyze the information of the alarms generated by the components of an optical network, in the presence of a fault. It uses the alarm correlation in order to reduce the list of suspected components shown to the network operators. By our simulation results, we show that our proposed algorithms achieve less blocking probability and delay while getting higher throughput.

Keywords: Alarm correlation, blocking probability, delay, fault localization, WDM networks.

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1870 Improving Order Quantity Model with Emergency Safety Stock (ESS)

Authors: Yousef Abu Nahleh, Alhasan Hakami, Arun Kumar, Fugen Daver

Abstract:

This study considers the problem of calculating safety stocks in disaster situations inventory systems that face demand uncertainties. Safety stocks are essential to make the supply chain, which is controlled by forecasts of customer needs, in response to demand uncertainties and to reach predefined goal service levels. To solve the problem of uncertainties due to the disaster situations affecting the industry sector, the concept of Emergency Safety Stock (ESS) was proposed. While there exists a huge body of literature on determining safety stock levels, this literature does not address the problem arising due to the disaster and dealing with the situations. In this paper, the problem of improving the Order Quantity Model to deal with uncertainty of demand due to disasters is managed by incorporating a new idea called ESS which is based on the probability of disaster occurrence and uses probability matrix calculated from the historical data. 

Keywords: Emergency Safety Stocks, Safety stocks, Order Quantity Model, Supply chain.

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1869 Ship Detection Requirements Analysis for Different Sea States: Validation on Real SAR Data

Authors: Jaime Martín-de-Nicolás, David Mata-Moya, Nerea del-Rey-Maestre, Pedro Gómez-del-Hoyo, María-Pilar Jarabo-Amores

Abstract:

Ship detection is nowadays quite an important issue in tasks related to sea traffic control, fishery management and ship search and rescue. Although it has traditionally been carried out by patrol ships or aircrafts, coverage and weather conditions and sea state can become a problem. Synthetic aperture radars can surpass these coverage limitations and work under any climatological condition. A fast CFAR ship detector based on a robust statistical modeling of sea clutter with respect to sea states in SAR images is used. In this paper, the minimum SNR required to obtain a given detection probability with a given false alarm rate for any sea state is determined. A Gaussian target model using real SAR data is considered. Results show that SNR does not depend heavily on the class considered. Provided there is some variation in the backscattering of targets in SAR imagery, the detection probability is limited and a post-processing stage based on morphology would be suitable.

Keywords: SAR, generalized gamma distribution, detection curves, radar detection.

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1868 Landowers' Participation Behavior on the Payment for Environmental Service (PES): Evidences from Taiwan

Authors: Wan-Yu Liu

Abstract:

To respond to the Kyoto Protocol, the policy of Payment for Environmental Service (PES), which was entitled “Plain Landscape Afforestation Program (PLAP)", was certified by Executive Yuan in Taiwan on 31 August 2001 and has been implementing for six years since 1 January 2002. Although the PLAP has received a lot of positive comments, there are still many difficulties during the process of implementation, such as insufficient technology for afforestation, private landowners- low interests in participating in PLAP, insufficient subsidies, and so on, which are potential threats that hinder the PLAP from moving forward in future. In this paper, selecting Ping-Tung County in Taiwan as a sample region and targeting those private landowners with and without intention to participate in the PLAP, respectively, we conduct an empirical analysis based on the Logit model to investigate the factors that determine whether those private landowners join the PLAP, so as to realize the incentive effects of the PLAP upon the personal decision on afforestation. The possible factors that might determine private landowner-s participation in the PLAP include landowner-s characteristics, cropland characteristics, as well as policy factors. Among them, the policy factors include afforestation subsidy amount (+), duration of afforestation subsidy (+), the rules on adjoining and adjacent areas (+), and so on, which do not reach the remarkable level in statistics though, but the directions of variable signs are consistent with the intuition behind the policy. As for the landowners- characteristics, each of age (+), education level (–), and annual household income (+) variables reaches 10% of the remarkable level in statistics; as for the cropland characteristics, each of cropland area (+), cropland price (–), and the number of cropland parcels (–) reaches 1% of the remarkable level in statistics. In light of the above, the cropland characteristics are the dominate factor that determines the probability of landowner-s participation in the PLAP. In the Logit model established by this paper, the probability of correctly estimating nonparticipants is 98%, the probability of correctly estimating the participants is 71.8%, and the probability for the overall estimation is 95%. In addition, Hosmer-Lemeshow test and omnibus test also revealed that the Logit model in this paper may provide fine goodness of fit and good predictive power in forecasting private landowners- participation in this program. The empirical result of this paper expects to help the implementation of the afforestation programs in Taiwan.

Keywords: Forestry policy, logit, afforestation subsidy, afforestation policy.

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1867 Stability of Functionally Graded Beams with Piezoelectric Layers Based on the First Order Shear Deformation Theory

Authors: M. Karami Khorramabadi, A. R. Nezamabadi

Abstract:

Stability of functionally graded beams with piezoelectric layers subjected to axial compressive load that is simply supported at both ends is studied in this paper. The displacement field of beam is assumed based on first order shear deformation beam theory. Applying the Hamilton's principle, the governing equation is established. The influences of applied voltage, dimensionless geometrical parameter, functionally graded index and piezoelectric thickness on the critical buckling load of beam are presented. To investigate the accuracy of the present analysis, a compression study is carried out with a known data.

Keywords: Stability, Functionally graded beam, First order shear deformation theory, Piezoelectric layer.

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1866 Application of Heuristic Integration Ant Colony Optimization in Path Planning

Authors: Zeyu Zhang, Guisheng Yin, Ziying Zhang, Liguo Zhang

Abstract:

This paper mainly studies the path planning method based on ant colony optimization (ACO), and proposes heuristic integration ant colony optimization (HIACO). This paper not only analyzes and optimizes the principle, but also simulates and analyzes the parameters related to the application of HIACO in path planning. Compared with the original algorithm, the improved algorithm optimizes probability formula, tabu table mechanism and updating mechanism, and introduces more reasonable heuristic factors. The optimized HIACO not only draws on the excellent ideas of the original algorithm, but also solves the problems of premature convergence, convergence to the sub optimal solution and improper exploration to some extent. HIACO can be used to achieve better simulation results and achieve the desired optimization. Combined with the probability formula and update formula, several parameters of HIACO are tested. This paper proves the principle of the HIACO and gives the best parameter range in the research of path planning.

Keywords: Ant colony optimization, heuristic integration, path planning

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1865 Dynamic Reroute Modeling for Emergency Evacuation: Case Study of Brunswick City, Germany

Authors: Yun-Pang Flötteröd, Jakob Erdmann

Abstract:

The human behaviors during evacuations are quite complex. One of the critical behaviors which affect the efficiency of evacuation is route choice. Therefore, the respective simulation modeling work needs to function properly. In this paper, Simulation of Urban Mobility’s (SUMO) current dynamic route modeling during evacuation, i.e. the rerouting functions, is examined with a real case study. The result consistency of the simulation and the reality is checked as well. Four influence factors (1) time to get information, (2) probability to cancel a trip, (3) probability to use navigation equipment, and (4) rerouting and information updating period are considered to analyze possible traffic impacts during the evacuation and to examine the rerouting functions in SUMO. Furthermore, some behavioral characters of the case study are analyzed with use of the corresponding detector data and applied in the simulation. The experiment results show that the dynamic route modeling in SUMO can deal with the proposed scenarios properly. Some issues and function needs related to route choice are discussed and further improvements are suggested.

Keywords: Evacuation, microscopic traffic simulation, rerouting, SUMO.

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1864 Grounded Theory of Consumer Loyalty, a Perspective through Video Game Addiction

Authors: Bassam Shaikh, R. S. A. Jumain

Abstract:

Game addiction has become an extremely important topic in psychology researchers, particularly in understanding and explaining why individuals become addicted (to video games). In previous studies, effect of online game addiction on social responsibilities, health problems, government action, and the behaviors of individuals to purchase and the causes of making individuals addicted on the video games has been discussed. Extending these concepts in marketing, it could be argued than the phenomenon could enlighten and extending our understanding on consumer loyalty. This study took the Grounded Theory approach, and found that motivation, satisfaction, fulfillments, exploration and achievements to be part of the important elements that builds consumer loyalty.

Keywords: Consumer Loyalty, Video Games Addiction, Video Games, Grounded Theory.

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1863 Direct Democracy and Social Contract in Ancient Athens

Authors: Nicholas Kyriazis, Emmanouil Marios L. Economou, Jr, Loukas Zachilas

Abstract:

In the present essay, a model of choice by actors is analysedby utilizing the theory of chaos to explain how change comes about. Then, by using ancient and modern sources of literature, the theory of the social contract is analysed as a historical phenomenon that first appeared during the period of Classical Greece. Then, based on the findings of this analysis, the practice of direct democracy and public choice in ancient Athens is analysed, through two historical cases: Eubulus and Lycurgus political program in the second half of the 4th century. The main finding of this research is that these policies can be interpreted as an implementation of a social contract, through which citizens were taking decisions based on rational choice according to economic considerations.

Keywords: Chaos theory, public choice, social contract, 4th century BC. Athens.

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1862 Analytical Slope Stability Analysis Based on the Statistical Characterization of Soil Shear Strength

Authors: Bernardo C. P. Albuquerque, Darym J. F. Campos

Abstract:

Increasing our ability to solve complex engineering problems is directly related to the processing capacity of computers. By means of such equipments, one is able to fast and accurately run numerical algorithms. Besides the increasing interest in numerical simulations, probabilistic approaches are also of great importance. This way, statistical tools have shown their relevance to the modelling of practical engineering problems. In general, statistical approaches to such problems consider that the random variables involved follow a normal distribution. This assumption tends to provide incorrect results when skew data is present since normal distributions are symmetric about their means. Thus, in order to visualize and quantify this aspect, 9 statistical distributions (symmetric and skew) have been considered to model a hypothetical slope stability problem. The data modeled is the friction angle of a superficial soil in Brasilia, Brazil. Despite the apparent universality, the normal distribution did not qualify as the best fit. In the present effort, data obtained in consolidated-drained triaxial tests and saturated direct shear tests have been modeled and used to analytically derive the probability density function (PDF) of the safety factor of a hypothetical slope based on Mohr-Coulomb rupture criterion. Therefore, based on this analysis, it is possible to explicitly derive the failure probability considering the friction angle as a random variable. Furthermore, it is possible to compare the stability analysis when the friction angle is modelled as a Dagum distribution (distribution that presented the best fit to the histogram) and as a Normal distribution. This comparison leads to relevant differences when analyzed in light of the risk management.

Keywords: Statistical slope stability analysis, Skew distributions, Probability of failure, Functions of random variables.

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1861 Prediction Method of Extenics Theory for Assessment of Bearing Capacity of Lateritic Soil Foundation

Authors: Wei Bai, Ling-Wei Kong, Ai-Guo Guo

Abstract:

Base on extenics theory, the statistical physical and mechanical properties from laboratory experiments are used to evaluate the bearing capacity of lateritic soil foundation. The properties include water content, bulk density, liquid limit, cohesion, and so on. The matter-element and the dependent function are defined. Then the synthesis dependent degree and the final grade index are calculated. The results show that predicted outcomes can be matched with the in-situ test data, and a evaluate grade associate with bearing capacity can be deduced. The results provide guidance to assess and determine the bearing capacity grade of lateritic soil foundation.

Keywords: Lateritic soil, bearing capacity, extenics theory, plate loading test.

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1860 Vision Based Hand Gesture Recognition Using Generative and Discriminative Stochastic Models

Authors: Mahmoud Elmezain, Samar El-shinawy

Abstract:

Many approaches to pattern recognition are founded on probability theory, and can be broadly characterized as either generative or discriminative according to whether or not the distribution of the image features. Generative and discriminative models have very different characteristics, as well as complementary strengths and weaknesses. In this paper, we study these models to recognize the patterns of alphabet characters (A-Z) and numbers (0-9). To handle isolated pattern, generative model as Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and discriminative models like Conditional Random Field (CRF), Hidden Conditional Random Field (HCRF) and Latent-Dynamic Conditional Random Field (LDCRF) with different number of window size are applied on extracted pattern features. The gesture recognition rate is improved initially as the window size increase, but degrades as window size increase further. Experimental results show that the LDCRF is the best in terms of results than CRF, HCRF and HMM at window size equal 4. Additionally, our results show that; an overall recognition rates are 91.52%, 95.28%, 96.94% and 98.05% for CRF, HCRF, HMM and LDCRF respectively.

Keywords: Statistical Pattern Recognition, Generative Model, Discriminative Model, Human Computer Interaction.

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1859 Effects of Computer–Based Instructional Designs among Pupils of Different Music Intelligence Levels

Authors: Aldalalah, M. Osamah, Soon Fook Fong

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of computer–based instructional designs, namely modality and redundancy principles on the attitude and learning of music theory among primary pupils of different Music Intelligence levels. The lesson of music theory was developed in three different modes, audio and image (AI), text with image (TI) and audio with image and text (AIT). The independent variables were the three modes of courseware. The moderator variable was music intelligence. The dependent variables were the post test score. ANOVA was used to determine the significant differences of the pretest scores among the three groups. Analyses of covariance (ANCOVA) and Post hoc were carried out to examine the main effects as well as the interaction effects of the independent variables on the dependent variables. High music intelligence pupils performed significantly better than low music intelligence pupils in all the three treatment modes. The AI mode was found to help pupils with low music intelligence significantly more than the TI and AIT modes.

Keywords: Modality, Redundancy, Music theory, Cognitivetheory of multimedia learning, Cognitive load theory, Musicintelligence.

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1858 A Grounded Theory on Marist Spirituality/Charism from the Perspective of the Lay Marists in the Philippines

Authors: Nino M. Pizarro

Abstract:

To the author’s knowledge, despite the written documents about Marist spirituality/charism, nothing has been done concerning a clear theoretical framework that highlights Marist spirituality/charism from the perspective or lived experience of the lay Marists of St. Marcellin Champagnat. The participants of the study are the lay Marist - educators who are from Marist Schools in the Philippines. Since the study would like to find out the respondents’ own concepts and meanings about Marist spirituality/charism, qualitative methodology is considered the approach to be used in the study. In particular, the study will use the qualitative methods of Barney Glaser. The theory will be generated systematically from data collection, coding and analyzing through memoing, theoretical sampling, sorting and writing and using the constant comparative method. The data collection method that will be employed in this grounded theory research is the in-depth interview that is semi-structured and participant driven. Data collection will be done through snowball sampling that is purposive. The study is considering to come up with a theoretical framework that will help the lay Marists to deepen their understanding of the Marist spirituality/charism and their vocation as lay partners of the Marist Brothers of the Schools.

Keywords: Grounded Theory, Lay Marists, Lived Experience, Marist Spirituality/Charism.

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