Search results for: financial risk behavior

Authors: Berrin Şentürk

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In this study, due to the recurrence of bovine tuberculosis, in the same areas, the risk factors for the disease were determined and evaluated at the local level. This study was carried out in 32 farms where the disease was detected in the district and center of Samsun province in 2014. Predetermined risk factors, such as farm, environmental and economic risks, were investigated with the survey method. It was predetermined that risks in the three groups are similar to the risk variables of the disease on the global scale. These risk factors that increase the susceptibility of the infection must be understood by the herd owners. The risk-based contagious disease management system approach should be applied for bovine tuberculosis by farmers, animal health professionals and public and private sector decision makers.

Keywords: Bovine tuberculosis, disease management, control, outbreak, risk analysis.

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Authors: Lars Silver, Björn Berggren, Andreas Fili

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The financial crisis has decreased the opportunities of small businesses to acquire financing through conventional financial actors, such as commercial banks. This credit constraint is partly the reason for the emergence of new alternatives of financing, in addition to the spreading opportunities for communication and secure financial transfer through Internet. One of the most interesting venues for finance is termed “crowdfunding". As the term suggests crowdfunding is an appeal to prospective customers and investors to form a crowd that will finance projects that otherwise would find it hard to generate support through the most common financial actors. Crowdfunding is in this paper divided into different models; the threshold model, the microfinance model, the micro loan model and the equity model. All these models add to the financial possibilities of emerging entrepreneurs.

Keywords: Entrepreneurship, crowdfunding, equity finance, bank finance.

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Authors: F. Gökgöz, M. E. Atmaca

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Electricity plays an indispensable role in human life and the economy. It is a unique product or service that must be balanced instantaneously, as electricity is not stored, generation and consumption should be proportional. Effective and efficient use of electricity is very important not only for society, but also for the environment. A competitive electricity market is one of the best ways to provide a suitable platform for effective and efficient use of electricity. On the other hand, it carries some risks that should be carefully managed by the market players. Risk management is an essential part in market players’ decision making. In this paper, risk management through diversification is applied with the help of Markowitz’s Mean-variance, Down-side and Semi-variance methods for a case study. Performance of optimal electricity sale solutions are measured and evaluated via Sharpe-Ratio, and the optimal portfolio solutions are improved. Two years of historical weekdays’ price data of the Turkish Day Ahead Market are used to demonstrate the approach.

Keywords: Electricity market, portfolio optimization, risk management in electricity market, Sharpe ratio.

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Authors: C. Slim

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Traditional techniques for analyzing time series are based on the notion of stationarity of phenomena under study, but in reality most economic and financial series do not verify this hypothesis, which implies the implementation of specific tools for the detection of such behavior. In this paper, we study nonstationary non-seasonal time series tests in a non-exhaustive manner. We formalize the problem of nonstationary processes with numerical simulations and take stock of their statistical characteristics. The theoretical aspects of some of the most common unit root tests will be discussed. We detail the specification of the tests, showing the advantages and disadvantages of each. The empirical study focuses on the application of these tests to the exchange rate (USD/TND) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Tunisia, in order to compare the Power of these tests with the characteristics of the series.

Keywords: Stationarity, unit root tests, economic time series.

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Authors: Janusz K. Grabara, Bartłomiej Okwiet, Sebastian Kot

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The purpose of the article is presentation and analysis of the aspect of job security in small and medium-size enterprises in Poland with reference to other EU countries. We show the theoretical aspects of the risk with reference to managing small and medium enterprises, next risk management in small and medium enterprises in Poland, which were subjected to a detailed analysis. We show in detail the risk associated with the operation of the mentioned above companies, as well as analyses its levels on various stages and for different kinds of conducted activity.

Keywords: Job safety, small and medium-size companies, SME, work risk, risk management.

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Authors: M. M. Mortula

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Bottle water is getting very popular all through the world; especially in the gulf countries as the main source of drinking water. However, concerns over leaching of toxic chemicals are increasing. In this study, a health risk assessment was conducted in accordance with the guidelines indicated by United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). It is conducted based on leaching of Diethyl Phthalate (DEP) from Polyethylene terephthalate (PET). The toxicity and exposure assessment of diethyl phthalate was conducted to characterize its risk on human health. Risk management is also discussed.

Keywords: Toxicity, diethyl phthalate, PET, risk Assessment.

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Authors: Abdullahi Mohamud Sharif, Mohd. Zaidi Abd. Rozan

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Risk Assessment Tool (RAT) is an expert system that assesses, monitors, and gives preliminary treatments automatically based on the project plan. In this paper, a review was taken out for the current project time management risk assessment tools for SME software development projects, analyze risk assessment parameters, conditions, scenarios, and finally propose risk assessment tool (RAT) model to assess, treat, and monitor risks. An implementation prototype system is developed to validate the model.

Keywords: Project Time Management, Risk Assessment Tool(RAT), Small and Medium Enterprises (SME).

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Authors: I. Lucas, N. Schomberg, F-A. Couturier

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Most empirical studies have analyzed how liquidity risks faced by individual institutions turn into systemic risk. Recent banking crisis has highlighted the importance of grasping and controlling the systemic risk, and the acceptance by Central Banks to ease their monetary policies for saving default or illiquid banks. This last point shows that banks would pay less attention to liquidity risk which, in turn, can become a new important channel of loss. The financial regulation focuses on the most important and “systemic” banks in the global network. However, to quantify the expected loss associated with liquidity risk, it is worth to analyze sensitivity to this channel for the various elements of the global bank network. A small bank is not considered as potentially systemic; however the interaction of small banks all together can become a systemic element. This paper analyzes the impact of medium and small banks interaction on a set of banks which is considered as the core of the network. The proposed method uses the structure of agent-based model in a two-class environment. In first class, the data from actual balance sheets of 22 large and systemic banks (such as BNP Paribas or Barclays) are collected. In second one, to model a network as closely as possible to actual interbank market, 578 fictitious banks smaller than the ones belonging to first class have been split into two groups of small and medium ones. All banks are active on the European interbank network and have deposit and market activity. A simulation of 12 three month periods representing a midterm time interval three years is projected. In each period, there is a set of behavioral descriptions: repayment of matured loans, liquidation of deposits, income from securities, collection of new deposits, new demands of credit, and securities sale. The last two actions are part of refunding process developed in this paper. To strengthen reliability of proposed model, random parameters dynamics are managed with stochastic equations as rates the variations of which are generated by Vasicek model. The Central Bank is considered as the lender of last resort which allows banks to borrow at REPO rate and some ejection conditions of banks from the system are introduced.

Liquidity crunch due to exogenous crisis is simulated in the first class and the loss impact on other bank classes is analyzed though aggregate values representing the aggregate of loans and/or the aggregate of borrowing between classes. It is mainly shown that the three groups of European interbank network do not have the same response, and that intermediate banks are the most sensitive to liquidity risk.

Keywords: Systemic Risk, Financial Contagion, Liquidity Risk, Interbank Market, Network Model.

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Authors: Tanida Julvanichpong

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Exercise has been regarded as a necessary and important aspect to enhance physical performance and psychology health. Body weight statistics of students in junior high school students in Chonburi Province beyond a standard risk of obesity. Promoting exercise among Junior high school students in Chonburi Province, essential knowledge concerning factors influencing exercise is needed. Therefore, this study aims to (1) determine the levels of perceived exercise behavior, exercise behavior in the past, perceived barriers to exercise, perceived benefits of exercise, perceived self-efficacy to exercise, feelings associated with exercise behavior, influence of the family to exercise, influence of friends to exercise, and the perceived influence of the environment on exercise. (2) examine the predicting ability of each of the above factors while including personal factors (sex, educational level) for exercise behavior. Pender’s Health Promotion Model was used as a guide for the study. Sample included 652 students in junior high schools, Chonburi Provience. The samples were selected by Multi-Stage Random Sampling. Data Collection has been done by using self-administered questionnaires. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Pearson’s product moment correlation coefficient, Eta, and stepwise multiple regression analysis. The research results showed that: 1. Perceived benefits of exercise, influence of teacher, influence of environmental, feelings associated with exercise behavior were at a high level. Influence of the family to exercise, exercise behavior, exercise behavior in the past, perceived self-efficacy to exercise and influence of friends were at a moderate level. Perceived barriers to exercise were at a low level. 2. Exercise behavior was positively significant related to perceived benefits of exercise, influence of the family to exercise, exercise behavior in the past, perceived self-efficacy to exercise, influence of friends, influence of teacher, influence of environmental and feelings associated with exercise behavior (p < .01, respectively) and was negatively significant related to educational level and perceived barriers to exercise (p < .01, respectively). Exercise behavior was significant related to sex (Eta = 0.243, p=.000). 3. Exercise behavior in the past, influence of the family to exercise significantly contributed 60.10 percent of the variance to the prediction of exercise behavior in male students (p < .01). Exercise behavior in the past, perceived self-efficacy to exercise, perceived barriers to exercise, and educational level significantly contributed 52.60 percent of the variance to the prediction of exercise behavior in female students (p < .01).

Keywords: Predictive factors, exercise behaviors, junior high school.

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Authors: Birgül Şakar

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This study1 holds for the formation of international financial crisis and political factors for economic crisis in Turkey, are evaluated in chronological order. The international arena and relevant studies conducted in Turkey work in the literature are assessed. The main purpose of the study is to hold the linkage between the crises and political stability in Turkey in details, and to examine the position of Turkey in this regard. The introduction part follows the literature survey on the models explaining causes and results of the crises, the second part of the study. In the third part, the formations of the world financial crises are studied. The fourth part, financial crisis in Turkey in 1994, 2000, 2001 and 2008 are reviewed and their political reasons are analyzed. In the last part of the study the results and recommendations are held. Political administrations have laid the grounds for an economic crisis in Turkey. In this study, the emergence of an economic crisis in Turkey and the developments after the crisis are chronologically examined and an explanation is offered as to the cause and effect relationship between the political administration and economic equilibrium in the country. Economic crises can be characterized as follows: high prices of consumables, high interest rates, current account deficits, budget deficits, structural defects in government finance, rising inflation and fixed currency applications, rising government debt, declining savings rates and increased dependency on foreign capital stock. Entering into the conditions of crisis during a time when the exchange value of the country-s national currency was rising, speculative finance movements and shrinking of foreign currency reserves happened due to expectations for devaluation and because of foreign investors- resistance to financing national debt, and a financial risk occurs. During the February 2001 crisis and immediately following, devaluation and reduction of value occurred in Turkey-s stock market. While changing over to the system of floating exchange rates in the midst of this crisis, the effects of the crisis on the real economy are discussed in this study. Administered politics include financial reforms, such as the rearrangement of banking systems. These reforms followed with the provision of foreign financial support. There have been winners and losers in the imbalance of income distribution, which has recently become more evident in Turkey-s fragile economy.

Keywords: Economics, marketing crisis, financial reforms, political economy

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Authors: Jin hui Kim, Hyung kwan Cho, Ji won Moon, Hoon Chang

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The purpose of this study is comparing and analysing of the financial characteristics for development methods of the urban development project in the established area, focusing on the multi-level replotting. Analysis showed that the type of the lowest expenditure was 'combination type of group-land and multi-level replotting' and the type of the highest profitability was 'multi-level replotting type'. But 'multi-level replotting type' has still risk of amount of cost for the additional architecture. In addition, we subdivided standard amount for liquidation of replotting and analysed income-expenditure flow. Analysis showed that both of 'multi-level replotting type' and 'combination type of group-land and multi-level replotting' improved profitability of project and property change ratio. However, when the standard was under a certain amount, amount of original property for the replotting was increased exponentially, and profitability of project.

Keywords: Urban development, multi-level replotting, financial characteristics, expropriation type, combination type, urban meteorology.

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Authors: Nadezhda Kvatashidze

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The conceptual framework of International Financial Reporting Standards determines the basic principles of accounting. The said principles have multiple applications, with professional judgments being one of those. Recognition and assessment of the information contained in financial reporting, especially so the somewhat uncertain events and transactions and/or the ones regarding which there is no standard or interpretation are based on professional judgments. Professional judgments aim at the formulation of expert assumptions regarding the specifics of the circumstances and events to be entered into the report based on the conceptual framework terms and principles. Experts have to make a choice in favor of one of the aforesaid and simulate the situations applying multi-variant accounting estimates and judgment. In making the choice, one should consider all the factors, which may help represent the information in the best way possible. Professional judgment determines the relevance and faithful representation of the presented information, which makes it more useful for the existing and potential investors. In order to assess the prospected net cash flows, the information must be predictable and reliable. The publication contains critical analysis of the aforementioned problems. The fact that the International Financial Reporting Standards are developed continuously makes the issue all the more important and that is another point discussed in the study.

Keywords: Conceptual Framework for financial reporting, Qualitative characteristics of financial information, Professional judgement, Cost constraints, Financial reporting.

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Authors: B. Salmasian, A. Rabiee, T. Yousefzadeh

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In this research, the risk assessment of radiation hazard for the Research Nuclear Reactor has been studied. In the current study, the MCNPx computational code has been used and coupled with a developed program using MATLAB software to evaluate Total Effective Dose Equivalent (TEDE) and cancer risk according to the BEIR equations for various human organs. In this study, the risk assessment of cancer has been calculated for ten years after exposure, in each of body organs of different ages and sexes. Also, the risk assessment of cancer has been calculated in each of body organs of different ages and sexes due to exposure after the retirement of the reactor staff. According to obtained results, a conservative whole-body dose rate, during a year, is 0.261 Sv and the probability the cancer risk for women is more than men and for children is more than adults. It has been shown that thyroid cancer was more possible than others.

Keywords: MCNPx code, BEIR equation, equivalent dose, risk analysis.

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Authors: J. Šejnoha, D. Jarušková, O. Špačková, E. Novotná

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Construction of tunnels is connected with high uncertainty in the field of costs, construction period, safety and impact on surroundings. Risk management became therefore a common part of tunnel projects, especially after a set of fatal collapses occurred in 1990's. Such collapses are caused usually by combination of factors that can be divided into three main groups, i.e. unfavourable geological conditions, failures in the design and planning or failures in the execution. This paper suggests a procedure enabling quantification of the excavation risk related to extraordinary accidents using FTA and ETA tools. It will elaborate on a common process of risk analysis and enable the transfer of information and experience between particular tunnel construction projects. Further, it gives a guide for designers, management and other participants, how to deal with risk of such accidents and how to make qualified decisions based on a probabilistic approach.

Keywords: risk quantification, tunnel collapse, ETA, FTA, geotechnical risk

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Authors: C. A. Corzo, N. Zhang, F. Corzo

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Insider abuse has recently been reported as one of the more frequently occurring security incidents, suggesting that more security is required for detecting and preventing unauthorised financial transactions entered by authorised users. To address the problem, and based on the observation that all authorised interbanking financial transactions trigger or are triggered by other transactions in a workflow, we have developed a security solution based on a redefined understanding of an audit workflow. One audit workflow where there is a log file containing the complete workflow activity of financial transactions directly related to one financial transaction (an electronic deal recorded at an e-trading system). The new security solution contemplates any two parties interacting on the basis of financial transactions recorded by their users in related but distinct automated financial systems. In the new definition interorganizational and intra-organization interactions can be described in one unique audit trail. This concept expands the current ideas of audit trails by adapting them to actual e-trading workflow activity, i.e. intra-organizational and inter-organizational activity. With the above, a security auditing service is designed to detect integrity drifts with and between organizations in order to detect unauthorised financial transactions entered by authorised users.

Keywords: Intrusion Detection and Prevention, Authentica-transtionand Identification.

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Authors: Alhamdi Alfi Fajri

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The purpose of this study is to analyze and to give empirical proof about the effect of fair value implementation on financial asset against information asymmetry in Indonesia’s banking sector. This research tested the effect of fair value implementation on financial asset based on Statement of Financial Accounting Standard (PSAK) No. 55 and the fair value reliability measurement based on PSAK No. 60 against level of information asymmetry. The scope of research is Indonesia’s banking sector. The test’s result shows that the use of fair value based on PSAK No. 55 is significantly associated with information asymmetry. This positive relation is higher than the amortized cost implementation on financial asset. In addition, the fair value hierarchy based on PSAK No. 60 is significantly associated with information asymmetry. This research proves that the more reliable measurement of fair value on financial asset, the more observable fair value measurement and reduces level of information asymmetry.

Keywords: Fair value, PSAK No. 55, PSAK No. 60, information asymmetry, banks.

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Authors: O. O. Obe, V. Balanica, E. Neagoe

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The effects of hypertension are often lethal thus its early detection and prevention is very important for everybody. In this paper, a neural network (NN) model was developed and trained based on a dataset of hypertension causative parameters in order to forecast the likelihood of occurrence of hypertension in patients. Our research goal was to analyze the potential of the presented NN to predict, for a period of time, the risk of hypertension or the risk of developing this disease for patients that are or not currently hypertensive. The results of the analysis for a given patient can support doctors in taking pro-active measures for averting the occurrence of hypertension such as recommendations regarding the patient behavior in order to lower his hypertension risk. Moreover, the paper envisages a set of three example scenarios in order to determine the age when the patient becomes hypertensive, i.e. determine the threshold for hypertensive age, to analyze what happens if the threshold hypertensive age is set to a certain age and the weight of the patient if being varied, and, to set the ideal weight for the patient and analyze what happens with the threshold of hypertensive age.

Keywords: Neural Network, hypertension, data set, training set, supervised learning.

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Authors: Lenka Jesonkova, Frantisek Bozek

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Trihalogenmethanes (THMs) are disinfection byproducts with non-carcinogenic and genotoxic effects. The contamination of 6 sites close to the water treatment plant has been monitored in second largest city of the Czech Republic. Health risk assessment including both non-carcinogenic and genotoxic risk for long term exposition was realized using the critical concentrations. Concentrations of trihalogenmethanes met national standards in all samples. Risk assessment proved that health risks from trihalogenmethanes are acceptable on each site.

Keywords: Drinking water, health risk assessment, trihalogenmethanes, water pollution.

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Authors: Danielle Sandler dos Passos, Helder Coelho, Flávia Mori Sarti

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Analysing the world banking sector, we realize that traditional risk measurement methodologies no longer reflect the actual scenario with uncertainty and leave out events that can change the dynamics of markets. Considering this, regulators and financial institutions began to search more realistic models. The aim is to include external influences and interdependencies between agents, to describe and measure the operationalization of these complex systems and their risks in a more coherent and credible way. Within this context, X-Events are more frequent than assumed and, with uncertainties and constant changes, the concept of antifragility starts to gain great prominence in comparison to others methodologies of risk management. It is very useful to analyse whether a system succumbs (fragile), resists (robust) or gets benefits (antifragile) from disorder and stress. Thus, this work proposes the creation of the Banking Antifragility Index (BAI), which is based on the calculation of a triangular fuzzy number – to "quantify" qualitative criteria linked to antifragility.

Keywords: Complex adaptive systems, X-events, risk management, antifragility, banking antifragility index, triangular fuzzy number.

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Authors: Bi-Huei Tsai

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Previous studies on financial distress prediction choose the conventional failing and non-failing dichotomy; however, the distressed extent differs substantially among different financial distress events. To solve the problem, “non-distressed”, “slightlydistressed” and “reorganization and bankruptcy” are used in our article to approximate the continuum of corporate financial health. This paper explains different financial distress events using the two-stage method. First, this investigation adopts firm-specific financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors to measure the probability of various financial distress events based on multinomial logit models. Specifically, the bootstrapping simulation is performed to examine the difference of estimated misclassifying cost (EMC). Second, this work further applies macroeconomic factors to establish the credit cycle index and determines the distressed cut-off indicator of the two-stage models using such index. Two different models, one-stage and two-stage prediction models are developed to forecast financial distress, and the results acquired from different models are compared with each other, and with the collected data. The findings show that the one-stage model has the lower misclassification error rate than the two-stage model. The one-stage model is more accurate than the two-stage model.

Keywords: Multinomial logit model, corporate governance, company failure, reorganization, bankruptcy.

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Authors: Alfred Kamate Siviri, Angelus Mafikiri Tsongo, Jean Robert Kala Kamdjoug

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Well organized digitalization and information systems have been selected as relevant measures to mitigate operational risks within organizations. Unfortunately, information system comes with new threats that can cause severe damage and quick organization lockout. This study aims to measure perceived information system risks and their effects on operational risks within the microfinance institution in D.R. Congo. Also, the factors influencing the operational risk are to be identified, and the link between operational risk with other risks and performance is to be assessed. The study proposes a research model drawn on the combination of Resources-Based-View, dynamic capabilities, the agency theory, the Information System Security Model, and social theories of risk. Therefore, we suggest adopting a mixed methods research with the sole aim of increasing the literature that already exists on perceived operational risk assessment and its link with other risk and performance, with a focus on information system risks.

Keywords: information system risk, operational risk, microfinance performance, DR Congo

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Authors: Vaishali P. Joshi, Pallav Joshi

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The objective of this study is to examine the differences fashion innovators and non-fashion innovators in their fashion consumption behavior in terms of their pre-purchase behavior, purchase behavior and post purchase behavior. The questionnaire was distributed to a female college student for data collection for achieving the objective of the first part of the study. Question-related to fashion innovativeness and fashion consumption behavior was asked. The sample was comprised of 81 college females ages 18 through 30 who were attending Business Management degree. A series of attitude questions was used to categorize respondents on the Innovativeness Scale. 32 respondents with a score of 21 and above were designated as Fashion innovators and the remainder (49) as Non-fashion innovators. Findings showed that there exist significant differences between innovators and non-innovators in their fashion consumption behavior. Data was analyzed through frequency distribution table. Many differences were found in the behavior of innovators and non-innovators in terms of their pre-purchase, actual purchase, and post-purchase behavior.

Keywords: Consumption behavior, fashion, innovativeness, frequency distribution table.

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Authors: Jia-Ru Li, Chia-Jung Li, Ching-Wen Lin

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Contrary to negative emotion regulation, coping with positive moods have received less attention in adolescent adjustment. However, some research has found that everyone is different on dealing with their positive emotions, which affects their adaptation and well-being. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the relationship between positive emotions dampening and internalizing behavior problems of adolescent in Taiwan. A survey was conducted and 208 students (12 to14 years old) completed the strengths and difficulties questionnaire (SDQ), the Affect Intensity Measure, and the positive emotions dampening scale. Analysis methods such as descriptive statistics, t-test, Pearson correlations and multiple regression were adapted. The results were as follows: Emotionality and internalizing problem behavior have significant gender differences. Compared to boys, girls have a higher score on negative emotionality and are at a higher risk for internalizing symptoms. However, there are no gender differences on positive emotion dampening. Additionally, in the circumstance that negative emotionality acted as the control variable, positive emotion dampening strategy was (positive) related to internalizing behavior problems. Given the results of this study, it is suggested that coaching deconstructive positive emotion strategies is to assist adolescents with internalizing behavior problems is encouraged.

Keywords: Emotion dampening strategies, internalizing problem behaviors, affect intensity.

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Authors: Yen-Chieh Wen, Ching-Hui Lin

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The main purpose of this study is to analyze climbers involved in motivation and risk perception and analysis of the predictive ability of the risk perception "mountaineering" involved in motivation. This study used questionnaires, to have to climb the 3000m high mountain in Taiwan climbers object to carry out an investigation in order to non-random sampling, a total of 231 valid questionnaires were. After statistical analysis, the study found that: 1. Climbers the highest climbers involved in motivation "to enjoy the natural beauty of the fun. 2 climbers for climbers "risk perception" the highest: the natural environment of risk. 3. Climbers “seeking adventure stimulate", “competence achievement" motivation highly predictive of risk perception. Based on these findings, this study not only practices the recommendations of the outdoor leisure industry, and also related research proposals for future researchers.

Keywords: Mountaineering, motivation, risk perception, decision-making.

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Authors: Tomohiro Ando, Satoshi Yamashita

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The objective of this study is to propose a statistical modeling method which enables simultaneous term structure estimation of the risk-free interest rate, hazard and loss given default, incorporating the characteristics of the bond issuing company such as credit rating and financial information. A reduced form model is used for this purpose. Statistical techniques such as spline estimation and Bayesian information criterion are employed for parameter estimation and model selection. An empirical analysis is conducted using the information on the Japanese bond market data. Results of the empirical analysis confirm the usefulness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Empirical Bayes, Hazard term structure, Loss given default.

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Authors: M. Kamal Elbokl, Negadi Kheira

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Risk Evaluation is an important step in protecting your workers and your business, as well as complying with the law. It helps you focus on the risks that really matter in your workplace – the ones with the potential to cause real harm. We are in this paper introduce basics of risk assessment then we mention some of ways to risk evaluation by computer especially Monte Carlo simulation and Microsoft project.

We use Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) to deal with Risks in Industrial Facilities in Evaluation and Assessment for this risk. Using PERT Technique in Microsoft Project by the PERT toolbar and using PERTMASTER Program with Primavera Program we evaluate many hazards and make calculations for that by mathematical equation to make right decisions. We define and calculate risk factor and risk severity to ranking the type of the risk then dealing with it using in that many ways like probability computation, curves, and tables. By introducing variables in the equation of functions in computer programs we calculate the risk in the time and the cost in general case and then mention some examples in industrial facilities field.

Keywords: Risk, Industrial Facilities, PERT, Monte Carlo Simulation.

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Authors: Chih-Hsiang Chang

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This study aims to explore the relationship between the disposition effect and herding behavior of investors trading Taiwanese information technology stocks. This study differs from previous literature in two aspects. First, in contrast with the earlier studies that focused on investigating investors’ herding behavior, this study explores the possibility that the disposition effect drives investors’ herding behavior. Additionally, it takes an in-depth look at the interdependence between the disposition effect and herding behavior of investors, including lead-lag relationship and volatility transmission effect. Empirical results show that investors trading Taiwan’s information technology stocks exhibit pronounced herding behavior and that the disposition effect has a great impact on their herding behavior.

Keywords: Herding behavior, Disposition effect, Behavioral finance.

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Authors: Cristian Păuna

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After the widespread release of electronic trading, automated trading systems have become a significant part of the business intelligence system of any modern financial investment company. An important part of the trades is made completely automatically today by computers using mathematical algorithms. The trading decisions are taken almost instantly by logical models and the orders are sent by low-latency automatic systems. This paper will present a real-time price prediction methodology designed especially for algorithmic trading. Based on the price cyclicality function, the methodology revealed will generate price cyclicality bands to predict the optimal levels for the entries and exits. In order to automate the trading decisions, the cyclicality bands will generate automated trading signals. We have found that the model can be used with good results to predict the changes in market behavior. Using these predictions, the model can automatically adapt the trading signals in real-time to maximize the trading results. The paper will reveal the methodology to optimize and implement this model in automated trading systems. After tests, it is proved that this methodology can be applied with good efficiency in different timeframes. Real trading results will be also displayed and analyzed in order to qualify the methodology and to compare it with other models. As a conclusion, it was found that the price prediction model using the price cyclicality function is a reliable trading methodology for algorithmic trading in the financial market.

Keywords: Algorithmic trading, automated trading systems, financial markets, high-frequency trading, price prediction.

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Authors: Naveed Ghani, Samreen Javed

Abstract:

In today’s heterogeneous network environment, there is a growing demand for distrust clients to jointly execute secure network to prevent from malicious attacks as the defining task of propagating malicious code is to locate new targets to attack. Residual risk is always there no matter what solutions are implemented or whet so ever security methodology or standards being adapted. Security is the first and crucial phase in the field of Computer Science. The main aim of the Computer Security is gathering of information with secure network. No one need wonder what all that malware is trying to do: It's trying to steal money through data theft, bank transfers, stolen passwords, or swiped identities. From there, with the help of our survey we learn about the importance of white listing, antimalware programs, security patches, log files, honey pots, and more used in banks for financial data protection but there’s also a need of implementing the IPV6 tunneling with Crypto data transformation according to the requirements of new technology to prevent the organization from new Malware attacks and crafting of its own messages and sending them to the target. In this paper the writer has given the idea of implementing IPV6 Tunneling Secessions on private data transmission from financial organizations whose secrecy needed to be safeguarded.

Keywords: Network worms, malware infection propagating malicious code, virus, security, VPN.

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Authors: Humayun Murshed, Shibly Abdullah

Abstract:

The research conducted in early seventies apparently assumed the existence of a universal decision model for union negotiators and furthermore tended to regard financial information as a ‘neutral’ input into a rational decision making process. However, research in the eighties began to question the neutrality of financial information as an input in collective bargaining rather viewing it as a potentially effective means for controlling the labour force. Furthermore, this later research also started challenging the simplistic assumptions relating particularly to union objectives which have underpinned the earlier search for universal union decision models. Despite the above developments there seems to be a dearth of studies in developing countries concerning the use of financial information in collective bargaining. This paper seeks to begin to remedy this deficiency. Utilising a case study approach based on two enterprises, one in the public sector and the other a multinational, the universal decision model is rejected and it is argued that the decision whether or not to use financial information is a contingent one and such a contingency is largely defined by the context and environment in which both union and management negotiators work. An attempt is also made to identify the factors constraining as well as promoting the use of financial information in collective bargaining, these being regarded as unique to the organisations within which the case studies are conducted.

Keywords: Collective Bargaining, Developing Countries, Disclosures, Financial Information.

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