Search results for: earned value

Authors: Seyed Hossein Iranmanesh, Zahra Mokhtari

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Estimation time and cost of work completion in a project and follow up them during execution are contributors to success or fail of a project, and is very important for project management team. Delivering on time and within budgeted cost needs to well managing and controlling the projects. To dealing with complex task of controlling and modifying the baseline project schedule during execution, earned value management systems have been set up and widely used to measure and communicate the real physical progress of a project. But it often fails to predict the total duration of the project. In this paper data mining techniques is used predicting the total project duration in term of Time Estimate At Completion-EAC (t). For this purpose, we have used a project with 90 activities, it has updated day by day. Then, it is used regular indexes in literature and applied Earned Duration Method to calculate time estimate at completion and set these as input data for prediction and specifying the major parameters among them using Clem software. By using data mining, the effective parameters on EAC and the relationship between them could be extracted and it is very useful to manage a project with minimum delay risks. As we state, this could be a simple, safe and applicable method in prediction the completion time of a project during execution.

Keywords: Data Mining Techniques, Earned Duration Method, Earned Value, Estimate At Completion.

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Authors: Seyed Hossein Iranmanesh, Mansoureh Zarezadeh

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This paper presents an application of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to forecast actual cost of a project based on the earned value management system (EVMS). For this purpose, some projects randomly selected based on the standard data set , and it is produced necessary progress data such as actual cost ,actual percent complete , baseline cost and percent complete for five periods of project. Then an ANN with five inputs and five outputs and one hidden layer is trained to produce forecasted actual costs. The comparison between real and forecasted data show better performance based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) criterion. This approach could be applicable to better forecasting the project cost and result in decreasing the risk of project cost overrun, and therefore it is beneficial for planning preventive actions.

Keywords: Earned Value Management System (EVMS), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Estimate At Completion, Forecasting Methods, Project Performance Measurement.

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Authors: Hamed Zolfaghari, Mojtaba Kord

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Project planners and controllers are frequently faced with the challenge of inadequate software for the preparation of automatic project progress reports based on actual project information updates. They usually make dashboards in Microsoft Excel, which is local and not applicable online. Another shortcoming is that Microsoft project does not store the data in database, so the data cannot automatically be imported from Microsoft Project into Microsoft Excel. This study aimed to propose a model for the preparation of reports on automatic online project progress based on actual project information updates by the integration of Primavera P6, SQL database, and Power BI (Business Intelligence) for a construction project. The designed model could be applicable to project planners and controller agents by enabling them to prepare project reports automatically and immediately after updating the project schedule using actual information. To develop the model, the data were entered into P6, and the information was stored on the SQL database. The proposed model could prepare a wide range of reports, such as earned value management, Human Resource (HR) reports, and financial, physical, and risk reports automatically on the Power BI application. Furthermore, the reports could be published and shared online.

Keywords: Primavera P6, SQL, Power BI, Earned Value Management, Integration Management.

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Authors: Natalia Rudeli, Elisabeth Viles, Adrian Santilli

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Delays in the construction industry are a global phenomenon. Many construction projects experience extensive delays exceeding the initially estimated completion time. The main purpose of this study is to identify construction projects typical behaviors in order to develop a prognosis and management tool. Being able to know a construction projects schedule tendency will enable evidence-based decision-making to allow resolutions to be made before delays occur. This study presents an innovative approach that uses Cluster Analysis Method to support predictions during Earned Value Analyses. A clustering analysis was used to predict future scheduling, Earned Value Management (EVM), and Earned Schedule (ES) principal Indexes behaviors in construction projects. The analysis was made using a database with 90 different construction projects. It was validated with additional data extracted from literature and with another 15 contrasting projects. For all projects, planned and executed schedules were collected and the EVM and ES principal indexes were calculated. A complete linkage classification method was used. In this way, the cluster analysis made considers that the distance (or similarity) between two clusters must be measured by its most disparate elements, i.e. that the distance is given by the maximum span among its components. Finally, through the use of EVM and ES Indexes and Tukey and Fisher Pairwise Comparisons, the statistical dissimilarity was verified and four clusters were obtained. It can be said that construction projects show an average delay of 35% of its planned completion time. Furthermore, four typical behaviors were found and for each of the obtained clusters, the interim milestones and the necessary rhythms of construction were identified. In general, detected typical behaviors are: (1) Projects that perform a 5% of work advance in the first two tenths and maintain a constant rhythm until completion (greater than 10% for each remaining tenth), being able to finish on the initially estimated time. (2) Projects that start with an adequate construction rate but suffer minor delays culminating with a total delay of almost 27% of the planned time. (3) Projects which start with a performance below the planned rate and end up with an average delay of 64%, and (4) projects that begin with a poor performance, suffer great delays and end up with an average delay of a 120% of the planned completion time. The obtained clusters compose a tool to identify the behavior of new construction projects by comparing their current work performance to the validated database, thus allowing the correction of initial estimations towards more accurate completion schedules.

Keywords: Cluster analysis, construction management, earned value, schedule.

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Authors: P. Suparada, D. Eakapotch

Abstract:

The objectives were to analyze the using of new media in the form of set up candid clip that affects the product and presenter, to study the effectiveness of using new media in the form of set up candid clip in order to increase the circulation and audience satisfaction and to use the earned information and knowledge to develop the communication for publicizing and advertising via new media. This research is qualitative research based on questionnaire and in-depth interview from experts. The findings showed the advantages and disadvantages of communication for publicizing and advertising via new media in the form of set up candid clip including with the specific target group for this kind of advertising. It will be useful for fields of publicizing and advertising in the new media forms at the present.

Keywords: Candid Clip, Communication, New Media, Social Network.

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Authors: P. Suparada, D. Eakapotch

Abstract:

This research’s objectives were to analyze the using of new media in the form of set up candid clip that affects the product and presenter, to study the effectiveness of using new media in the form of set up candid clip in order to increase the circulation and audience satisfaction and to use the earned information and knowledge to develop the communication for publicizing and advertising via new media. This research is qualitative research based on questionnaire from 50 random sampling representative samples and in-depth interview from experts in publicizing and advertising fields. The findings indicated the positive and negative effects to the brands’ image and presenters’ image of product named “Scotch 100” and “Snickers” that used set up candid clips via new media for publicizing and advertising in Thailand. It will be useful for fields of publicizing and advertising in the new media forms.

Keywords: Candid Clip, Effect, New Media, Social Network.

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Authors: Milad Eghtedari Naeini, Gholamreza Heravi

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In this paper, based on the past project cost and time performance, a model for forecasting project cost performance is developed. This study presents a probabilistic project control concept to assure an acceptable forecast of project cost performance. In this concept project activities are classified into sub-groups entitled control accounts. Then obtain the Stochastic S-Curve (SS-Curve), for each sub-group and the project SS-Curve is obtained by summing sub-groups- SS-Curves. In this model, project cost uncertainties are considered through Beta distribution functions of the project activities costs required to complete the project at every selected time sections through project accomplishment, which are extracted from a variety of sources. Based on this model, after a percentage of the project progress, the project performance is measured via Earned Value Management to adjust the primary cost probability distribution functions. Then, accordingly the future project cost performance is predicted by using the Monte-Carlo simulation method.

Keywords: Monte Carlo method, Probabilistic model, Project forecasting, Stochastic S-curve

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Authors: Siddegowda, Y. A. Sathish, G. Krishnegowda, T. M. Mohan Kumar

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Road accidents are a human tragedy. They involve high human suffering and monetary costs in terms of untimely death, injuries and social problems. India had earned the dubious distinction of having more number of fatalities due to road accidents in the world. Road safety is emerging as a major social concern around the world especially in India because of infrastructure project works. A case study was taken on NH – 07 which connects to various major cities and industries. The study shows that major cases of fatalities are due to bus, trucks and high speed vehicles. The main causes of accidents are due to high density, non-restriction of speed, use of mobile phones, lack of board signs on road parking, visibility restriction, improper geometric design, road use characteristics, environmental aspects, social aspects etc. Data analysis and preventive measures are enlightened in this paper.

Keywords: Accidents, environmental aspects, fatalities, geometric design, road user characteristics.

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Authors: Chih-Cheng Chen, Meng-Lung Lin, Yung-Tan Lee, Tien-Tze Chen, Ching-Yu Tseng

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Baseball is unique among other sports in Taiwan. Baseball has become a “symbol of the Taiwanese spirit and Taiwan-s national sport". Taiwan-s first professional sports league, the Chinese Professional Baseball League (CPBL), was established in 1989. Starters pitch many more innings over the course of a season and for a century teams have made all their best pitchers starters. In this study, we attempt to determine the on-field performance these pitchers and which won the most CPBL games in 2009. We utilize the discriminate analysis approach to solve the problem, examining winning pitchers and their statistics, to reliably find the best starting pitcher. The data employed in this paper include innings pitched (IP), earned runs allowed (ERA) and walks plus hits per inning pitched (WPHIP) provided by the official website of the CPBL. The results show that Aaron Rakers was the best starting pitcher of the CPBL. The top 10 CPBL starting pitchers won 14 games to 8 games in the 2009 season. Though Fisher Discriminant Analysis, predicted to top 10 CPBL starting pitchers probably won 20 games to 9 games, more 1 game to 7 games in actually counts in 2009 season.

Keywords: Chinese Professional Baseball League, startingpitcher, Fisher's Discriminate analysis

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Authors: Okolo Chimaobi Valentine

Abstract:

Commercial banks in Nigeria adopted many strategies to attract fresh deposits including the use of high deposit rate. However, pricing of banking services moved in favor of the banks at the expense of customers, resulting in their seeking other investment alternatives rather than saving their money in the bank. Both deposit and lending rates were greatly influenced by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) decision on interest rate. Therefore, commercial bank effort to attract deposits via manipulation of her rates was greatly limited, otherwise the banks will be giving out more than it earned. The study aimed at examining the relationship between interest rate and fixed fund deposit of commercial banks, how policy-controlled interest rate affected commercial bank’s fixed fund deposit The researcher employed ordinary least square technique, using, multiple linear regression, unrestricted vector auto-regression, correlation matrix test, granger causality and impulse response graph in the analysis. Commercial bank’s interest rates affected commercial bank’s fixed fund deposit significantly while policy-controlled interest rate did not significantly transmit through the commercial bank’s interest rates to affect fixed fund deposit. While commercial banks seek creative ways to expand their fixed fund deposit, policy authorities in Nigeria should better coordinate interest rate fluctuation and induce competition in the entire financial sector.

Keywords: Commercial bank, fixed fund deposit, fluctuation effects, interest rate.

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Authors: Marin Mandić, Elis Sutlović, Tonći Modrić, Luka Stanić

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With the restructuring and deregulation of the power system, storage owners, generation companies or private producers can offer their multiple services on various power markets and earn income in different types of markets, such as the day-ahead, real-time, ancillary services market, etc. During the COVID-19 pandemic, electricity prices, as well as ancillary services prices, increased significantly. The optimization of the energy storage operation was performed using a suitable model for simulating the operation of a pumped storage hydropower plant under market conditions. The objective function maximizes the income earned through energy arbitration, regulation-up, regulation-down and spinning reserve services. The optimization technique used for solving the objective function is mixed integer linear programming (MILP). In numerical examples, the pumped storage hydropower plant operation has been optimized considering the already achieved hourly electricity market prices from Nord Pool for the pre-pandemic (2019) and the pandemic (2020 and 2021) years. The impact of the electricity market prices during the COVID-19 pandemic on energy storage operation is shown through the analysis of income, operating hours, reserved capacity and consumed energy for each service. The results indicate the role of energy storage during a significant fluctuation in electricity and services prices.

Keywords: Electrical market prices, electricity market, energy storage optimization, mixed integer linear programming, MILP, optimization.

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Authors: Ofelia A. Damag

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The study was focused on the development and assessment of the illustrated language activities of the 1996 Edition of the Portage Guide to Early Education. It determined the extent of appropriateness, applicability, time efficiency and aesthetics of the illustrated language activities to be used as instructional material not only by teachers, but parents and caregivers as well. The eclectic research design was applied in this study using qualitative and quantitative methods. To determine the applicability and time efficiency of the study, a try out was done. Since the eclectic research design was used, it made use of a researcher-made survey questionnaire and focus group discussion. Analysis of the data was done through weighted mean and ANOVA. The respondents of the study were representatives of Special Education (SPED) teachers, caregivers and parents of a special-needs child, particularly with difficulties in learning basic language skills. The results of the study show that a large number of respondents are SPED teachers and caregivers and are mostly college graduates. Many of them have earned units towards Master’s studies. Moreover, a majority of the respondents have not attended seminars or in-service training in early intervention for them to be more competent in the area of specialization. It is concluded that the illustrated language activities under review in this study are appropriate, applicable, time efficient and aesthetic for use as a tool in teaching. The recommendations are focused on the advocacy for SPED teachers, caregivers and parents of special-needs children to be more consistent in the implementation of the new instructional materials as an aid in an intervention program.

Keywords: Illustrated language activities, inclusion, portage guide to early education, special educational needs.

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Authors: Omid Ghasemalizadeh, Mohammad Reza Mirzaee, Hossein Sadeghi, Mohammad Taghi Ahmadian

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There are lots of different ways to find the natural frequencies of a rotating system. One of the most effective methods which is used because of its precision and correctness is the application of the transfer matrix. By use of this method the entire continuous system is subdivided and the corresponding differential equation can be stated in matrix form. So to analyze shaft that is this paper issue the rotor is divided as several elements along the shaft which each one has its own mass and moment of inertia, which this work would create possibility of defining the named matrix. By Choosing more elements number, the size of matrix would become larger and as a result more accurate answers would be earned. In this paper the dynamics of a rotor-bearing system is analyzed, considering the gyroscopic effect. To increase the accuracy of modeling the thickness of the disk and bearings is also taken into account which would cause more complicated matrix to be solved. Entering these parameters to our modeling would change the results completely that these differences are shown in the results. As said upper, to define transfer matrix to reach the natural frequencies of probed system, introducing some elements would be one of the requirements. For the boundary condition of these elements, bearings at the end of the shaft are modeled as equivalent spring and dampers for the discretized system. Also, continuous model is used for the shaft in the system. By above considerations and using transfer matrix, exact results are taken from the calculations. Results Show that, by increasing thickness of the bearing the amplitude of vibration would decrease, but obviously the stiffness of the shaft and the natural frequencies of the system would accompany growth. Consequently it is easily understood that ignoring the influences of bearing and disk thicknesses would results not real answers.

Keywords: Rotor System, Disk and Bearing Thickness, Transfer Matrix, Amplitude.

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Authors: Beata Ślusarczyk, Sebastian Kot

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In subjective terms, Polish SME sector occupies a prominent position in the national economic development, in which planning of the management strategies should be primarily based on identifying and meeting the innovation needs. As a research sample, there is chosen a printing sector of industry. SMEs share in printing sector in Poland is estimated at the level of 81% of all enterprises. In recent years, the printing industry achieved one of the highest levels of EU support in Poland. There is a relatively high increase in the development of technological innovations in equipment and the associated significant increase in production capacity. It can be also noticed that on average, every third enterprise belonging to the printing industry has implemented innovations, but not all of them effected in better economic results. Therefore, the aim of this article is to evaluate the impact of the implementation of innovation projects financed from the EU funds for performance of SMEs in the printing industry. As the results of research of EU funds co-financing effects on the development of innovation in the printing industry, it was specified that examined SMEs prefer to implement product innovation to receive a grant to the project at a level between 40% to 60%, the remaining part of the investment is usually covered with equity. The most common type of innovation had indicated a single implementation, related only to the change in process, technology, or organization. The relationship between variables of the EU funds and management of innovative activities was verified. It has been observed that the identified variables arising from the support in a form of the EU funds had a positive effect on the level of earned revenue, the increase in margin and in increase in employment as well. It was confirmed that the implemented innovations supported by the European funds have a positive impact on the performance of the printing companies. Although there is a risk that due to the decreasing demand for printing services such a high level of funding the companies in this sector will significantly increase competition in the long term, that may also contribute to the economic problems of the enterprises belonging to the analyzed branch.

Keywords: Innovations, SMEs, performance, results.

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Authors: Ferdi Sönmez, Nihal Yorulmaz

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Decision making on the true planning of the public transportation systems to serve potential users is a must for metropolitan areas. To take attraction of travelers to projected modes of transport, adequately fair overall travel times should be provided. In this fashion, other benefits such as lower traffic congestion, road safety and lower noise and atmospheric pollution may be earned. The congestion which comes with increasing demand of public transportation is becoming a part of our lives and making residents’ life difficult. Hence, regulations should be done to reduce this congestion. To provide a constructive and balanced regulation in public transportation systems, right stations should be located in right places. In this study, it is aimed to design and implement a Decision Support System (DSS) Application to determine the optimal bus stop places for public transport in Istanbul which is one of the biggest and oldest cities in the world. Required information is gathered from IETT (Istanbul Electricity, Tram and Tunnel) Enterprises which manages all public transportation services in Istanbul Metropolitan Area. By using the most real-like values, cost assignments are made. The cost is calculated with the help of equations produced by bi-level optimization model. For this study, 300 buses, 300 drivers, 10 lines and 110 stops are used. The user cost of each station and the operator cost taken place in lines are calculated. Some components like cost, security and noise pollution are considered as significant factors affecting the solution of set covering problem which is mentioned for identifying and locating the minimum number of possible bus stops. Preliminary research and model development for this study refers to previously published article of the corresponding author. Model results are represented with the intent of decision support to the specialists on locating stops effectively.

Keywords: User cost, bi-level optimization model, decision support, operator cost, transportation.

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Authors: Omar F. Hamad, T. Marwala

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With optimized bandwidth and latency discrepancy ratios, Node Gain Scores (NGSs) are determined and used as a basis for shaping the max-heap overlay. The NGSs - determined as the respective bandwidth-latency-products - govern the construction of max-heap-form overlays. Each NGS is earned as a synergy of discrepancy ratio of the bandwidth requested with respect to the estimated available bandwidth, and latency discrepancy ratio between the nodes and the source node. The tree leads to enhanceddelivery overlay multicasting – increasing packet delivery which could, otherwise, be hindered by induced packet loss occurring in other schemes not considering the synergy of these parameters on placing the nodes on the overlays. The NGS is a function of four main parameters – estimated available bandwidth, Ba; individual node's requested bandwidth, Br; proposed node latency to its prospective parent (Lp); and suggested best latency as advised by source node (Lb). Bandwidth discrepancy ratio (BDR) and latency discrepancy ratio (LDR) carry weights of α and (1,000 - α ) , respectively, with arbitrary chosen α ranging between 0 and 1,000 to ensure that the NGS values, used as node IDs, maintain a good possibility of uniqueness and balance between the most critical factor between the BDR and the LDR. A max-heap-form tree is constructed with assumption that all nodes possess NGS less than the source node. To maintain a sense of load balance, children of each level's siblings are evenly distributed such that a node can not accept a second child, and so on, until all its siblings able to do so, have already acquired the same number of children. That is so logically done from left to right in a conceptual overlay tree. The records of the pair-wise approximate available bandwidths as measured by a pathChirp scheme at individual nodes are maintained. Evaluation measures as compared to other schemes – Bandwidth Aware multicaSt architecturE (BASE), Tree Building Control Protocol (TBCP), and Host Multicast Tree Protocol (HMTP) - have been conducted. This new scheme generally performs better in terms of trade-off between packet delivery ratio; link stress; control overhead; and end-to-end delays.

Keywords: Overlay multicast, Available bandwidth, Max-heapform overlay, Induced packet loss, Bandwidth-latency product, Node Gain Score (NGS).

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