Search results for: discrete choice models

Authors: Yunjia Wang, Zhihong Zhao, Erxiang Song

Abstract:

Rockfills are widely used in civil engineering, such as dams, railways, and airport foundations in mountain areas. A significant long-term post-construction settlement may affect the serviceability or even the safety of rockfill infrastructures. The creep behavior of rockfills is influenced by a number of factors, such as particle size, strength and shape, water condition and stress level. However, the effect of particle shape on rockfill creep still remains poorly understood, which deserves a careful investigation. Particle-based discrete element method (DEM) was used to simulate the creep behavior of rockfills under different boundary conditions. Both angular and rounded particles were considered in this numerical study, in order to investigate the influence of particle shape. The preliminary results showed that angular particles experience more breakages and larger creep strains under one-dimensional compression than rounded particles. On the contrary, larger creep strains were observed in he rounded specimens in the direct shear test. The mechanism responsible for this difference is that the possibility of the existence of key particle in rounded particles is higher than that in angular particles. The above simulations demonstrate that the influence of particle shape on the creep behavior of rockfills can be simulated by DEM properly. The method of DEM simulation may facilitate our understanding of deformation properties of rockfill materials.

Keywords: Rockfills, creep behavior, particle crushing, discrete element method, boundary conditions.

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Authors: Abhimanyu Pati, Krishna Kumar Veluri

Abstract:

The paper intends to bring out a real life experience encountered during actual implementation of a large scale Tier-1 Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system in a multi-location, discrete manufacturing organization in India, involved in manufacturing of auto components and aggregates. The business complexities, prior to the implementation of ERP, include multi-product with hierarchical product structures, geographically distributed multiple plant locations with disparate business practices, lack of inter-plant broadband connectivity, existence of disparate legacy applications for different business functions, and non-standardized codifications of products, machines, employees, and accounts apart from others. On the other hand, the manufacturing environment consisted of processes like Assemble-to-Order (ATO), Make-to-Stock (MTS), and Engineer-to-Order (ETO) with a mix of discrete and process operations. The paper has highlighted various business plan areas and concerns, prior to the implementation, with specific focus on strategic issues and objectives. Subsequently, it has dealt with the complete process of ERP implementation, starting from strategic planning, project planning, resource mobilization, and finally, the program execution. The step-by-step process provides a very good learning opportunity about the implementation methodology. At the end, various organizational challenges and lessons emerged, which will act as guidelines and checklist for organizations to successfully align and implement ERP and achieve their business objectives.

Keywords: ERP, ATO, MTS, ETO, discrete manufacturing, strategic planning.

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Authors: Siripen Yiamjanya, Kevin Wongleedee

Abstract:

This research paper aims to identify travel motivation by push and pull factors that affected decision making of international tourists in selecting Thailand as their destination choice. A total of 200 international tourists who traveled to Thailand during January and February, 2014 were used as the sample in this study. A questionnaire was employed as a tool in collecting the data, conducted in Bangkok. The list consisted of 30 attributes representing both psychological factors as “push- based factors” and destination factors as “pull-based factors”. Mean and standard deviation were used in order to find the top ten travel motives that were important determinants in the respondents’ decision making process to select Thailand as their destination choice. The finding revealed the top ten travel motivations influencing international tourists to select Thailand as their destination choice included [i] getting experience in foreign land; [ii] Thai food; [iii] learning new culture; [iv] relaxing in foreign land; [v] wanting to learn new things; [vi] being interested in Thai culture, and traditional markets; [vii] escaping from same daily life; [viii] enjoying activities; [ix] adventure; and [x] good weather. Classification of push- based and pull- based motives suggested that getting experience in foreign land was the most important push motive for international tourists to travel, while Thai food portrayed its highest significance as pull motive. Discussion and suggestions were also made for tourism industry of Thailand.

Keywords: Decision Making, Destination Choice, International Tourist, Pull Factor, Push Factor, Thailand, Travel Motivation.

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Authors: Mikel Alonso López

Abstract:

In order to begin the process of studying the task of making consumer decisions, the main decision models must be analyzed. The objective of this task is to see if there is a presence of emotions in those models, and analyze how authors that have created them consider their impact in consumer choices. In this paper, the most important models of consumer behavior are analysed. This review is useful to consider an unproblematic background knowledge in the literature. The order that has been established for this study is chronological.

Keywords: Consumer behaviour, emotions, decision making, consumer psychology.

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Authors: Hu Haibo, Liu Yi, He Ming

Abstract:

The binary phase-only filter digital watermarking embeds the phase information of the discrete Fourier transform of the image into the corresponding magnitudes for better image authentication. The paper proposed an approach of how to implement watermark embedding by quantizing the magnitude, with discussing how to regulate the quantization steps based on the frequencies of the magnitude coefficients of the embedded watermark, and how to embed the watermark at low frequency quantization. The theoretical analysis and simulation results show that algorithm flexibility, security, watermark imperceptibility and detection performance of the binary phase-only filter digital watermarking can be effectively improved with quantization based watermark embedding, and the robustness against JPEG compression will also be increased to some extent.

Keywords: binary phase-only filter, discrete Fourier transform, digital watermarking, image authentication, quantization.

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Authors: J. Sliseris, K. Rocens

Abstract:

The new optimization method for fiber orientation angle optimization of symmetrical multilayer plates like plywood is proposed. Optimization method consists of seeking for minimal compliance by choosing appropriate fiber orientation angle in outer layers of flexural plate. The discrete values of fiber orientation angles are used in method. Optimization results of simply supported plate and multispan plate with uniformly distributed load are provided. Results show that stiffness could be increased up to 20% by changing wood fiber orientation angle in one or two outer layers.

Keywords: Minimal compliance, flexural plate, plywood, discrete fiber angle optimization.

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Authors: Khaled M. EL-Naggar

Abstract:

This paper presents a new method for estimating the mean curve of impulse voltage waveforms that are recorded during impulse tests. In practice, these waveforms are distorted by noise, oscillations and overshoot. The problem is formulated as an estimation problem. Estimation of the current signal parameters is achieved using a fast and accurate technique. The method is based on discrete dynamic filtering algorithm (DDF). The main advantage of the proposed technique is its ability in producing the estimates in a very short time and at a very high degree of accuracy. The algorithm uses sets of digital samples of the recorded impulse waveform. The proposed technique has been tested using simulated data of practical waveforms. Effects of number of samples and data window size are studied. Results are reported and discussed.

Keywords: Digital Filtering, Estimation, Impulse wave, Stochastic filtering.

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Authors: Liming Zhang

Abstract:

This paper introduces a new instantaneous frequency computation approach
-Counting Instantaneous Frequency for a general class of signals called simple waves. The classsimple wave contains a wide range of continuous signals for which the concept instantaneous frequency has a perfect physical sense. The concept of
-Counting Instantaneous Frequency also applies to all the discrete data. For all the simple wave signals and the discrete data,
-Counting instantaneous frequency can be computed directly without signal decomposition process. The intrinsic mode functions obtained through empirical mode decomposition belongs to simple wave. So
-Counting instantaneous frequency can be used together with empirical mode decomposition.

Keywords: Instantaneous frequency, empirical mode decomposition, intrinsic mode function.

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Authors: Rakesh Arasu, Sasitharan Ambicapathy, Sivaraj Ponnusamy, Mohanraj Murugesan, V. R. Sanal Kumar

Abstract:

The flow field within the combustor of scramjet engine is very complex and poses a considerable challenge in the design and development of a supersonic combustor with an optimized geometry. In this paper comprehensive numerical studies on flow field characteristics of different cavity based scramjet combustors with transverse injection of hydrogen have been carried out for both non-reacting and reacting flows. The numerical studies have been carried out using a validated 2D unsteady, density based 1st-order implicit k-omega turbulence model with multi-component finite rate reacting species. The results show a wide variety of flow features resulting from the interactions between the injector flows, shock waves, boundary layers, and cavity flows. We conjectured that an optimized cavity is a good choice to stabilize the flame in the hypersonic flow, and it generates a recirculation zone in the scramjet combustor. We comprehended that the cavity based scramjet combustors having a bearing on the source of disturbance for the transverse jet oscillation, fuel/air mixing enhancement, and flameholding improvement. We concluded that cavity shape with backward facing step and 45o forward ramp is a good choice to get higher temperatures at the exit compared to other four models of scramjet combustors considered in this study.

Keywords: Flame holding, Hypersonic flow, Scramjet combustor, Supersonic combustor.

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Authors: Ruskartina Eki, Vincent F. Yu, Santosa Budi, A. A. N. Perwira Redi

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This paper introduces symbiotic organism search (SOS) for solving capacitated vehicle routing problem (CVRP). SOS is a new approach in metaheuristics fields and never been used to solve discrete problems. A sophisticated decoding method to deal with a discrete problem setting in CVRP is applied using the basic symbiotic organism search (SOS) framework. The performance of the algorithm was evaluated on a set of benchmark instances and compared results with best known solution. The computational results show that the proposed algorithm can produce good solution as a preliminary testing. These results indicated that the proposed SOS can be applied as an alternative to solve the capacitated vehicle routing problem.

Keywords: Symbiotic organism search, vehicle routing problem, metaheuristics, Solution Representation.

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Authors: K. Balamurugan, R. Muralisachithanandam, V. Dharmalingam, R. Srikanth

Abstract:

This paper deals with the optimal choice and allocation of multi FACTS devices in Deregulated power system using Evolutionary Programming method. The objective is to achieve the power system economic generation allocation and dispatch in deregulated electricity market. Using the proposed method, the locations of the FACTS devices, their types and ratings are optimized simultaneously. Different kinds of FACTS devices are simulated in this study such as UPFC, TCSC, TCPST, and SVC. Simulation results validate the capability of this new approach in minimizing the overall system cost function, which includes the investment costs of the FACTS devices and the bid offers of the market participants. The proposed algorithm is an effective and practical method for the choice and allocation of FACTS devices in deregulated electricity market environment. The standard data of IEEE 14 Bus systems has been taken into account and simulated with aid of MAT-lab software and results were obtained.

Keywords: FACTS devices, Optimal allocation, Deregulated electricity market, Evolutionary programming, Mat Lab.

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Authors: F. Rezaie Moghaddam, J. Amani, T. Rezaie Moghaddam

Abstract:

Many computational techniques were applied to solution of heat conduction problem. Those techniques were the finite difference (FD), finite element (FE) and recently meshless methods. FE is commonly used in solution of equation of heat conduction problem based on the summation of stiffness matrix of elements and the solution of the final system of equations. Because of summation process of finite element, convergence rate was decreased. Hence in the present paper Cellular Automata (CA) approach is presented for the solution of heat conduction problem. Each cell considered as a fixed point in a regular grid lead to the solution of a system of equations is substituted by discrete systems of equations with small dimensions. Results show that CA can be used for solution of heat conduction problem.

Keywords: Heat conduction, Cellular automata, convergencerate, discrete system.

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Authors: Latha Parameswaran, K. Anbumani

Abstract:

Multimedia security is an incredibly significant area of concern. A number of papers on robust digital watermarking have been presented, but there are no standards that have been defined so far. Thus multimedia security is still a posing problem. The aim of this paper is to design a robust image-watermarking scheme, which can withstand a different set of attacks. The proposed scheme provides a robust solution integrating image moment normalization, content dependent watermark and discrete wavelet transformation. Moment normalization is useful to recover the watermark even in case of geometrical attacks. Content dependent watermarks are a powerful means of authentication as the data is watermarked with its own features. Discrete wavelet transforms have been used as they describe image features in a better manner. The proposed scheme finds its place in validating identification cards and financial instruments.

Keywords: Watermarking, moments, wavelets, content-based, benchmarking.

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Authors: Jiming Yang

Abstract:

A kind of singularly perturbed boundary value problems is under consideration. In order to obtain its approximation, simple upwind difference discretization is applied. We use a moving mesh iterative algorithm based on equi-distributing of the arc-length function of the current computed piecewise linear solution. First, a maximum norm a posteriori error estimate on an arbitrary mesh is derived using a different method from the one carried out by Chen [Advances in Computational Mathematics, 24(1-4) (2006), 197-212.]. Then, basing on the properties of discrete Green-s function and the presented posteriori error estimate, we theoretically prove that the discrete solutions computed by the algorithm are first-order uniformly convergent with respect to the perturbation parameter ε.

Keywords: Convergence analysis, green's function, singularly perturbed, equi-distribution, moving mesh.

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Authors: R. Sabre

Abstract:

This work focuses on the symmetric alpha stable process with continuous time frequently used in modeling the signal with indefinitely growing variance, often observed with an unknown additive error. The objective of this paper is to estimate this error from discrete observations of the signal. For that, we propose a method based on the smoothing of the observations via Jackson polynomial kernel and taking into account the width of the interval where the spectral density is non-zero. This technique allows avoiding the “Aliasing phenomenon” encountered when the estimation is made from the discrete observations of a process with continuous time. We have studied the convergence rate of the estimator and have shown that the convergence rate improves in the case where the spectral density is zero at the origin. Thus, we set up an estimator of the additive error that can be subtracted for approaching the original signal without error.

Keywords: Spectral density, stable processes, aliasing, p-adic.

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Authors: Neerja Bhatnagar, Benjoe A. Juliano, Renee S. Renner

Abstract:

This paper presents data annotation models at five levels of granularity (database, relation, column, tuple, and cell) of relational data to address the problem of unsuitability of most relational databases to express annotations. These models do not require any structural and schematic changes to the underlying database. These models are also flexible, extensible, customizable, database-neutral, and platform-independent. This paper also presents an SQL-like query language, named Annotation Query Language (AnQL), to query annotation documents. AnQL is simple to understand and exploits the already-existent wide knowledge and skill set of SQL.

Keywords: annotation query language, data annotations, data annotation models, semantic data annotations

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Authors: Jyotsna Singh, Parul Garg, Alok Nath De

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a non-blind technique of adding the watermark to the Fourier spectral components of audio signal in a way such that the modified amplitude does not exceed the maximum amplitude spread (MAS). This MAS is due to individual Discrete fourier transform (DFT) coefficients in that particular frame, which is derived from the Energy Spreading function given by Schroeder. Using this technique one can store double the information within a given frame length i.e. overriding the watermark on the host of equal length with least perceptual distortion. The watermark is uniformly floating on the DFT components of original signal. This helps in detecting any intentional manipulations done on the watermarked audio. Also, the scheme is found robust to various signal processing attacks like presence of multiple watermarks, Additive white gaussian noise (AWGN) and mp3 compression.

Keywords: Discrete Fourier Transform, Spreading Function, Watermark, Pseudo Noise Sequence, Spectral Masking Effect

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Authors: H. Alkhatib, J. Duveau

Abstract:

Genetic algorithms (GAs) have been widely used for global optimization problems. The GA performance depends highly on the choice of the search space for each parameter to be optimized. Often, this choice is a problem-based experience. The search space being a set of potential solutions may contain the global optimum and/or other local optimums. A bad choice of this search space results in poor solutions. In this paper, our approach consists in extending the search space boundaries during the GA optimization, only when it is required. This leads to more diversification of GA population by new solutions that were not available with fixed search space boundaries. So, these dynamic search spaces can improve the GA optimization performances. The proposed approach is applied to power system stabilizer optimization for multimachine power system (16-generator and 68-bus). The obtained results are evaluated and compared with those obtained by ordinary GAs. Eigenvalue analysis and nonlinear system simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed approach to damp out the electromechanical oscillation and enhance the global system stability.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithms, Multiobjective Optimization, Power System Stabilizer, Small Signal Stability.

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Authors: Yu Bin, Zhang Yan

Abstract:

The prediction of transmembrane helical segments (TMHs) in membrane proteins is an important field in the bioinformatics research. In this paper, a new method based on discrete wavelet transform (DWT) has been developed to predict the number and location of TMHs in membrane proteins. PDB coded as 1KQG was chosen as an example to describe the prediction of the number and location of TMHs in membrane proteins by using this method. To access the effect of the method, 80 proteins with known 3D-structure from Mptopo database are chosen at random as the test objects (including 325 TMHs), 308 of which can be predicted accurately, the average predicted accuracy is 96.3%. In addition, the above 80 membrane proteins are divided into 13 groups according to their function and type. In particular, the results of the prediction of TMHs of the 13 groups are satisfying.

Keywords: discrete wavelet transform, hydrophobicity, membrane protein, transmembrane helical segments

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Authors: Nayera E. El-Gharably, Khaled S. El-Kilany, Aziz E. El-Sayed

Abstract:

A key element of many distribution systems is the routing and scheduling of vehicles servicing a set of customers. A wide variety of exact and approximate algorithms have been proposed for solving the vehicle routing problems (VRP). Exact algorithms can only solve relatively small problems of VRP, which is classified as NP-Hard. Several approximate algorithms have proven successful in finding a feasible solution not necessarily optimum. Although different parts of the problem are stochastic in nature; yet, limited work relevant to the application of discrete event system simulation has addressed the problem. Presented here is optimization using simulation of VRP; where, a simplified problem has been developed in the ExtendSimTM simulation environment; where, ExtendSimTM evolutionary optimizer is used to minimize the total transportation cost of the problem. Results obtained from the model are very satisfactory. Further complexities of the problem are proposed for consideration in the future.

Keywords: Discrete event system simulation, optimization using simulation, vehicle routing problem.

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Authors: Siham G. Farag

Abstract:

The main objective of this paper is to provide a new methodology for road safety assessment in Oman through the development of suitable accident prediction models. GLM technique with Poisson or NBR using SAS package was carried out to develop these models. The paper utilized the accidents data of 31 un-signalized T-intersections during three years. Five goodness-of-fit measures were used to assess the overall quality of the developed models. Two types of models were developed separately; the flow-based models including only traffic exposure functions, and the full models containing both exposure functions and other significant geometry and traffic variables. The results show that, traffic exposure functions produced much better fit to the accident data. The most effective geometric variables were major-road mean speed, minor-road 85th percentile speed, major-road lane width, distance to the nearest junction, and right-turn curb radius. The developed models can be used for intersection treatment or upgrading and specify the appropriate design parameters of T-intersections. Finally, the models presented in this thesis reflect the intersection conditions in Oman and could represent the typical conditions in several countries in the middle east area, especially gulf countries.

Keywords: Accidents Prediction Models (APMs), Generalized Linear Model (GLM), T-intersections, Oman.

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Authors: Ali Akbar Attari, Ali Asghar Beheshti Shirazi

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a blind and robust audio watermarking scheme based on spread spectrum in Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) domain. Watermarks are embedded in the low-frequency coefficients, which is less audible. The key idea is dividing the audio signal into small frames, and magnitude of the 6^th level of DWT approximation coefficients is modifying based upon the Direct Sequence Spread Spectrum (DSSS) technique. Also, the psychoacoustic model for enhancing in imperceptibility, as well as Savitsky-Golay filter for increasing accuracy in extraction, is used. The experimental results illustrate high robustness against most common attacks, i.e. Gaussian noise addition, Low pass filter, Resampling, Requantizing, MP3 compression, without significant perceptual distortion (ODG is higher than -1). The proposed scheme has about 83 bps data payload.

Keywords: Audio watermarking, spread spectrum, discrete wavelet transform, psychoacoustic, Savitsky-Golay filter.

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Authors: L. Parvizsedghy, I. Gkountis, A. Senouci, T. Zayed, M. Alsharqawi, H. El Chanati, M. El-Abbasy, F. Mosleh

Abstract:

The aging and deterioration of water pipelines in cities worldwide result in more frequent water main breaks, water service disruptions, and flooding damage. Therefore, there is an urgent need for undertaking proper maintenance procedures to avoid breaks and disastrous failures. However, due to budget limitations, the maintenance of water pipeline networks needs to be prioritized through efficient deterioration assessment models. Previous studies focused on the development of structural or physical deterioration assessment models, which require expensive inspection data. But, this paper aims at developing deterioration assessment models for water pipelines using statistical techniques. Several deterioration models were developed based on pipeline size, material type, and soil type using linear regression analysis. The categorical nature of some variables affecting pipeline deterioration was considered through developing several categorical models. The developed models were validated with an average validity percentage greater than 95%. Moreover, sensitivity analysis was carried out against different classifications and it displayed higher importance of age of pipes compared to other factors. The developed models will be helpful for the water municipalities and asset managers to assess the condition of their pipes and prioritize them for maintenance and inspection purposes.

Keywords: Water pipelines, deterioration assessment models, regression analysis.

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Authors: Ibrahim A. El rube, Mohamad Abou El Nasr , Mostafa M. Naim, Mahmoud Farouk

Abstract:

In this paper, a watermarking algorithm that uses the wavelet transform with Multiple Description Coding (MDC) and Quantization Index Modulation (QIM) concepts is introduced. Also, the paper investigates the role of Contourlet Transform (CT) versus Wavelet Transform (WT) in providing robust image watermarking. Two measures are utilized in the comparison between the waveletbased and the contourlet-based methods; Peak Signal to Noise Ratio (PSNR) and Normalized Cross-Correlation (NCC). Experimental results reveal that the introduced algorithm is robust against different attacks and has good results compared to the contourlet-based algorithm.

Keywords: image watermarking; discrete wavelet transform, discrete contourlet transform, multiple description coding, quantization index modulation

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Authors: M. Hassan, I. Osman, M. Yahia

Abstract:

This Paper proposes a new facial feature extraction approach, Wash-Hadamard Transform (WHT). This approach is based on correlation between local pixels of the face image. Its primary advantage is the simplicity of its computation. The paper compares the proposed approach, WHT, which was traditionally used in data compression with two other known approaches: the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and the Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT) using the face database of Olivetti Research Laboratory (ORL). In spite of its simple computation, the proposed algorithm (WHT) gave very close results to those obtained by the PCA and DCT. This paper initiates the research into WHT and the family of frequency transforms and examines their suitability for feature extraction in face recognition applications.

Keywords: Face Recognition, Facial Feature Extraction, Principal Component Analysis, and Discrete Cosine Transform, Wash-Hadamard Transform.

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Authors: R. K. Chaurasiya, N. D. Londhe, S. Ghosh

Abstract:

The study of the electrical signals produced by neural activities of human brain is called Electroencephalography. In this paper, we propose an automatic and efficient EEG signal classification approach. The proposed approach is used to classify the EEG signal into two classes: epileptic seizure or not. In the proposed approach, we start with extracting the features by applying Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) in order to decompose the EEG signals into sub-bands. These features, extracted from details and approximation coefficients of DWT sub-bands, are used as input to Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The classification is based on reducing the feature dimension using PCA and deriving the supportvectors using Support Vector Machine (SVM). The experimental are performed on real and standard dataset. A very high level of classification accuracy is obtained in the result of classification.

Keywords: Discrete Wavelet Transform, Electroencephalogram, Pattern Recognition, Principal Component Analysis, Support Vector Machine.

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Authors: Dursun Aydin

Abstract:

This paper study about using of nonparametric models for Gross National Product data in Turkey and Stanford heart transplant data. It is discussed two nonparametric techniques called smoothing spline and kernel regression. The main goal is to compare the techniques used for prediction of the nonparametric regression models. According to the results of numerical studies, it is concluded that smoothing spline regression estimators are better than those of the kernel regression.

Keywords: Kernel regression, Nonparametric models, Prediction, Smoothing spline.

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Authors: I. Erins, J. Erina

Abstract:

The aim of this article is to assess the existing business models used by the banks operating in the CEE countries in the time period from 2006 till 2011. In order to obtain research results, the authors performed qualitative analysis of the scientific literature on bank business models, which have been grouped into clusters that consist of such components as: 1) capital and reserves; 2) assets; 3) deposits, and 4) loans. In their turn, bank business models have been developed based on the types of core activities of the banks, and have been divided into four groups: Wholesale, Investment, Retail and Universal Banks. Descriptive statistics have been used to analyse the models, determining mean, minimal and maximal values of constituent cluster components, as well as standard deviation. The analysis of the data is based on such bank variable indices as Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE).

Keywords: Banks, Business model, CEE, ROA, ROE.

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Authors: Abdoullah Fath-Allah, Laila Cheikhi, Rafa E. Al-Qutaish, Ali Idri

Abstract:

Many quality models have been used to measure egovernment portals quality. However, the absence of an international consensus for e-government portals quality models results in many differences in terms of quality attributes and measures. The aim of this paper is to compare and analyze the existing e-government quality models proposed in literature (those that are based on ISO standards and those that are not) in order to propose guidelines to build a good and useful e-government portals quality model. Our findings show that, there is no e-government portal quality model based on the new international standard ISO 25010. Besides that, the quality models are not based on a best practice model to allow agencies to both; measure e-government portals quality and identify missing best practices for those portals.

Keywords: E-government, portal, best practices, quality model, ISO, standard, ISO 25010, ISO 9126.

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Authors: Mogari I. Rapoo, Diteboho Xaba

Abstract:

This paper examines the forecasting performance of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) models with the published exchange rate obtained from South African Reserve Bank (SARB). ARIMA is one of the popular linear models in time series forecasting for the past decades. ARIMA and ANN models are often compared and literature revealed mixed results in terms of forecasting performance. The study used the MSE and MAE to measure the forecasting performance of the models. The empirical results obtained reveal the superiority of ARIMA model over ANN model. The findings further resolve and clarify the contradiction reported in literature over the superiority of ARIMA and ANN models.

Keywords: ARIMA, artificial neural networks models, error metrics, exchange rates.

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