Search results for: Scenario planning.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1335

Search results for: Scenario planning.

165 Prospects of Iraq’s Maritime Openness and Their Effect on Its Economy

Authors: Mohanad Hammad

Abstract:

Port institutions serve as a link connecting the land areas that receive the goods and the areas from where ships sail. These areas hold great significance for the conversion of goods into commodities of economic value, capable of meeting the needs of the society. Development of ports constitutes a fundamental component of the comprehensive economic development process. Recognizing this fact, developing countries have always resorted to this infrastructural element to resolve the numerous problems they face, taking into account its contribution to the reformation of their economic conditions. Iraqi ports have played a major role in boosting the commercial movement in Iraq, as they are the starting point of its oil exports and a key constituent in fulfilling the consumer and production needs of the various economic sectors of Iraq. With the Gulf wars and the economic blockade, Iraqi ports have continued to deteriorate and become unable to perform their functions as first-generation ports, prompting Iraq to use the ports of neighboring countries such as Jordan's Aqaba commercial port. Meanwhile, Iraqi ports face strong competition from the ports of neighboring countries, which have achieved progress and advancement as opposed to the declining performance and efficiency of Iraqi ports. The great developments in the economic conditions of Iraq lay a too great burden on the Iraqi maritime transport and ports, which require development in order to be able to meet the challenges arising from the fierce international and regional competition in the markets. Therefore, it is necessary to find appropriate solutions in support of the role that can be played by Iraqi ports in serving Iraq's foreign trade transported by sea and in keeping up with the development of foreign trade. Thus, this research aims at tackling the current situation of the Iraqi ports and their commercial activity and studying the problems and obstacles they face. The research also studies the future prospects of these ports, the potentials of maritime openness to Iraq under the fierce competition of neighboring ports, and the possibility of enhancing Iraqi ports’ competitiveness. Among the results produced by this research is the future scenario it proposes for Iraqi ports, mainly represented in the establishment of Al-Faw Port, which will contribute to a greater openness of maritime transport in Iraq, and the rehabilitation and expansion of existing ports. This research seeks to develop solutions to Iraq ports so that they can be repositioned as a vital means of promoting economic development.

Keywords: Transport, port, regional openness, development.

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164 A User Friendly Tool for Performance Evaluation of Different Reference Evapotranspiration Methods

Authors: Vijay Shankar

Abstract:

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a major component of the hydrologic cycle and its accurate estimation is essential for hydrological studies. In past, various estimation methods have been developed for different climatological data, and the accuracy of these methods varies with climatic conditions. Reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) is a key variable in procedures established for estimating evapotranspiration rates of agricultural crops. Values of ET0 are used with crop coefficients for many aspects of irrigation and water resources planning and management. Numerous methods are used for estimating ET0. As per internationally accepted procedures outlined in the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization-s Irrigation and Drainage Paper No. 56(FAO-56), use of Penman-Monteith equation is recommended for computing ET0 from ground based climatological observations. In the present study, seven methods have been selected for performance evaluation. User friendly software has been developed using programming language visual basic. The visual basic has ability to create graphical environment using less coding. For given data availability the developed software estimates reference evapotranspiration for any given area and period for which data is available. The accuracy of the software has been checked by the examples given in FAO-56.The developed software is a user friendly tool for estimating ET0 under different data availability and climatic conditions.

Keywords: Crop coefficient, Crop evapotranspiration, Field moisture, Irrigation Scheduling.

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163 Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis in Planning of Asbestos-Containing Waste Management

Authors: E. Bruno, F. Lacarbonara, M. C. Placentino, D. Gramegna

Abstract:

Environmental decision making, particularly about hazardous waste management, is inherently exposed to a high potential conflict, principally because of the trade-off between sociopolitical, environmental, health and economic factors. The need to plan complex contexts has led to an increasing request for decision analytic techniques as support for the decision process. In this work, alternative systems of asbestos-containing waste management (ACW) in Puglia (Southern Italy) were explored by a multi-criteria decision analysis. In particular, through Analytic Hierarchy Process five alternatives management have been compared and ranked according to their performance and efficiency, taking into account environmental, health and socio-economic aspects. A separated valuation has been performed for different temporal scale. For short period results showed a narrow deviation between the disposal alternatives “mono-material landfill in public quarry" and “dedicate cells in existing landfill", with the best performance of the first one. While for long period “treatment plant to eliminate hazard from asbestos-containing waste" was prevalent, although high energy demand required to achieve the change of crystalline structure. A comparison with results from a participative approach in valuation process might be considered as future development of method application to ACW management.

Keywords: Multi-criteria decision analysis, Hazardous wastemanagement, Asbestos.

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162 Simple Agents Benefit Only from Simple Brains

Authors: Valeri A. Makarov, Nazareth P. Castellanos, Manuel G. Velarde

Abstract:

In order to answer the general question: “What does a simple agent with a limited life-time require for constructing a useful representation of the environment?" we propose a robot platform including the simplest probabilistic sensory and motor layers. Then we use the platform as a test-bed for evaluation of the navigational capabilities of the robot with different “brains". We claim that a protocognitive behavior is not a consequence of highly sophisticated sensory–motor organs but instead emerges through an increment of the internal complexity and reutilization of the minimal sensory information. We show that the most fundamental robot element, the short-time memory, is essential in obstacle avoidance. However, in the simplest conditions of no obstacles the straightforward memoryless robot is usually superior. We also demonstrate how a low level action planning, involving essentially nonlinear dynamics, provides a considerable gain to the robot performance dynamically changing the robot strategy. Still, however, for very short life time the brainless robot is superior. Accordingly we suggest that small organisms (or agents) with short life-time does not require complex brains and even can benefit from simple brain-like (reflex) structures. To some extend this may mean that controlling blocks of modern robots are too complicated comparative to their life-time and mechanical abilities.

Keywords: Neural network, probabilistic control, robot navigation.

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161 Recent Developments in Speed Control System of Pipeline PIGs for Deepwater Pipeline Applications

Authors: Mohamad Azmi Haniffa, Fakhruldin Mohd Hashim

Abstract:

Pipeline infrastructures normally represent high cost of investment and the pipeline must be free from risks that could cause environmental hazard and potential threats to personnel safety. Pipeline integrity such monitoring and management become very crucial to provide unimpeded transportation and avoiding unnecessary production deferment. Thus proper cleaning and inspection is the key to safe and reliable pipeline operation and plays an important role in pipeline integrity management program and has become a standard industry procedure. In view of this, understanding the motion (dynamic behavior), prediction and control of the PIG speed is important in executing pigging operation as it offers significant benefits, such as estimating PIG arrival time at receiving station, planning for suitable pigging operation, and improves efficiency of pigging tasks. The objective of this paper is to review recent developments in speed control system of pipeline PIGs. The review carried out would serve as an industrial application in a form of quick reference of recent developments in pipeline PIG speed control system, and further initiate others to add-in/update the list in the future leading to knowledge based data, and would attract active interest of others to share their view points.

Keywords: Pipeline Inspection Gauge (PIG), In Line Inspection Tools (ILI), PIG motion, PIG speed control system

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160 Application of Universal Distribution Factors for Real-Time Complex Power Flow Calculation

Authors: Abdullah M. Alodhaiani, Yasir A. Alturki, Mohamed A. Elkady

Abstract:

Complex power flow distribution factors, which relate line complex power flows to the bus injected complex powers, have been widely used in various power system planning and analysis studies. In particular, AC distribution factors have been used extensively in the recent power and energy pricing studies in free electricity market field. As was demonstrated in the existing literature, many of the electricity market related costing studies rely on the use of the distribution factors. These known distribution factors, whether the injection shift factors (ISF’s) or power transfer distribution factors (PTDF’s), are linear approximations of the first order sensitivities of the active power flows with respect to various variables. This paper presents a novel model for evaluating the universal distribution factors (UDF’s), which are appropriate for an extensive range of power systems analysis and free electricity market studies. These distribution factors are used for the calculations of lines complex power flows and its independent of bus power injections, they are compact matrix-form expressions with total flexibility in determining the position on the line at which line flows are measured. The proposed approach was tested on IEEE 9-Bus system. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed approach is very accurate compared with exact method.

Keywords: Distribution Factors, Power System, Sensitivity Factors, Electricity Market.

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159 Satellite Interferometric Investigations of Subsidence Events Associated with Groundwater Extraction in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Authors: B. Mendonça, D. Sandwell

Abstract:

The Metropolitan Region of Sao Paulo (MRSP) has suffered from serious water scarcity. Consequently, the most convenient solution has been building wells to extract groundwater from local aquifers. However, it requires constant vigilance to prevent over extraction and future events that can pose serious threat to the population, such as subsidence. Radar imaging techniques (InSAR) have allowed continuous investigation of such phenomena. The analysis of data in the present study consists of 23 SAR images dated from October 2007 to March 2011, obtained by the ALOS-1 spacecraft. Data processing was made with the software GMTSAR, by using the InSAR technique to create pairs of interferograms with ground displacement during different time spans. First results show a correlation between the location of 102 wells registered in 2009 and signals of ground displacement equal or lower than -90 millimeters (mm) in the region. The longest time span interferogram obtained dates from October 2007 to March 2010. As a result, from that interferogram, it was possible to detect the average velocity of displacement in millimeters per year (mm/y), and which areas strong signals have persisted in the MRSP. Four specific areas with signals of subsidence of 28 mm/y to 40 mm/y were chosen to investigate the phenomenon: Guarulhos (Sao Paulo International Airport), the Greater Sao Paulo, Itaquera and Sao Caetano do Sul. The coverage area of the signals was between 0.6 km and 1.65 km of length. All areas are located above a sedimentary type of aquifer. Itaquera and Sao Caetano do Sul showed signals varying from 28 mm/y to 32 mm/y. On the other hand, the places most likely to be suffering from stronger subsidence are the ones in the Greater Sao Paulo and Guarulhos, right beside the International Airport of Sao Paulo. The rate of displacement observed in both regions goes from 35 mm/y to 40 mm/y. Previous investigations of the water use at the International Airport highlight the risks of excessive water extraction that was being done through 9 deep wells. Therefore, it is affirmed that subsidence events are likely to occur and to cause serious damage in the area. This study could show a situation that has not been explored with proper importance in the city, given its social and economic consequences. Since the data were only available until 2011, the question that remains is if the situation still persists. It could be reaffirmed, however, a scenario of risk at the International Airport of Sao Paulo that needs further investigation.

Keywords: Ground subsidence, interferometric satellite aperture radar (InSAR), metropolitan region of Sao Paulo, water extraction.

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158 Practice, Observation, and Gender Effects on Students’ Entrepreneurial Skills Development When Teaching through Entrepreneurship Is Adopted: Case of University of Tunis El Manar

Authors: H. Chaker, T. Slama, N. Elyétim

Abstract:

This paper analyzes the effects of gender, affiliation, prior work experience, social work, and vicarious learning through family role models on entrepreneurial skills development by students when they followed the teaching through the entrepreneurship method in Tunisia. We suggest that these variables enhance the development of students’ entrepreneurial skills when combined with teaching through entrepreneurship. The article assesses the impact of these combinations by comparing their effects on the development of thirteen students’ entrepreneurial competencies, namely entrepreneurial mindset, core self-evaluation, entrepreneurial attitude, entrepreneurial knowledge, creativity, financial literacy, managing ambiguity, marshaling of resources, planning, teaching methods, entrepreneurial teachers, innovative employee, and entrepreneurial intention. We use a two-sample independent t-test to make the comparison, and the results indicate that, when combined with teaching through the entrepreneurship method, students with prior work experience developed better six entrepreneurial skills; students with social work developed better three entrepreneurial skills, men developed better four entrepreneurial skills than women. However, all students developed their entrepreneurial skills through this practical method regardless of their affiliation and their vicarious learning through family role models.

Keywords: Affiliation, entrepreneurial skills, gender, role models, social work, teaching through entrepreneurship, vicarious learning, work experience.

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157 A Deep Learning Framework for Polarimetric SAR Change Detection Using Capsule Network

Authors: Sanae Attioui, Said Najah

Abstract:

The Earth's surface is constantly changing through forces of nature and human activities. Reliable, accurate, and timely change detection is critical to environmental monitoring, resource management, and planning activities. Recently, interest in deep learning algorithms, especially convolutional neural networks, has increased in the field of image change detection due to their powerful ability to extract multi-level image features automatically. However, these networks are prone to drawbacks that limit their applications, which reside in their inability to capture spatial relationships between image instances, as this necessitates a large amount of training data. As an alternative, Capsule Network has been proposed to overcome these shortcomings. Although its effectiveness in remote sensing image analysis has been experimentally verified, its application in change detection tasks remains very sparse. Motivated by its greater robustness towards improved hierarchical object representation, this study aims to apply a capsule network for PolSAR image Change Detection. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed change detection method can yield a significantly higher detection rate compared to methods based on convolutional neural networks.

Keywords: Change detection, capsule network, deep network, Convolutional Neural Networks, polarimetric synthetic aperture radar images, PolSAR images.

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156 Optimum Locations for Intercity Bus Terminals with the AHP Approach – Case Study of the City of Esfahan

Authors: Mehrdad Arabi, Ehsan Beheshtitabar, Bahador Ghadirifaraz, Behrooz Forjanizadeh

Abstract:

Interaction between human, location and activity defines space. In the framework of these relations, space is a container for current specifications in relations of the 3 mentioned elements. The change of land utility considered with average performance range, urban regulations, society requirements etc. will provide welfare and comfort for citizens. From an engineering view it is fundamental that choosing a proper location for a specific civil activity requires evaluation of locations from different perspectives. The debate of desirable establishment of municipal service elements in urban regions is one of the most important issues related to urban planning. In this paper, the research type is applicable based on goal, and is descriptive and analytical based on nature. Initially existing terminals in Esfahan are surveyed and then new locations are presented based on evaluated criteria. In order to evaluate terminals based on the considered factors, an AHP model is used at first to estimate weight of different factors and then existing and suggested locations are evaluated using Arc GIS software and AHP model results. The results show that existing bus terminals are located in fairly proper locations. Further results of this study suggest new locations to establish terminals based on urban criteria.

Keywords: Arc GIS, Esfahan city, Optimum locations, Terminals.

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155 Catchment Yield Prediction in an Ungauged Basin Using PyTOPKAPI

Authors: B. S. Fatoyinbo, D. Stretch, O. T. Amoo, D. Allopi

Abstract:

This study extends the use of the Drainage Area Regionalization (DAR) method in generating synthetic data and calibrating PyTOPKAPI stream yield for an ungauged basin at a daily time scale. The generation of runoff in determining a river yield has been subjected to various topographic and spatial meteorological variables, which integers form the Catchment Characteristics Model (CCM). Many of the conventional CCM models adapted in Africa have been challenged with a paucity of adequate, relevance and accurate data to parameterize and validate the potential. The purpose of generating synthetic flow is to test a hydrological model, which will not suffer from the impact of very low flows or very high flows, thus allowing to check whether the model is structurally sound enough or not. The employed physically-based, watershed-scale hydrologic model (PyTOPKAPI) was parameterized with GIS-pre-processing parameters and remote sensing hydro-meteorological variables. The validation with mean annual runoff ratio proposes a decent graphical understanding between observed and the simulated discharge. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and coefficient of determination (R²) values of 0.704 and 0.739 proves strong model efficiency. Given the current climate variability impact, water planner can now assert a tool for flow quantification and sustainable planning purposes.

Keywords: Ungauged Basin, Catchment Characteristics Model, Synthetic data, GIS.

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154 Simulation of the Pedestrian Flow in the Tawaf Area Using the Social Force Model

Authors: Zarita Zainuddin, Kumatha Thinakaran, Mohammed Shuaib

Abstract:

In today-s modern world, the number of vehicles is increasing on the road. This causes more people to choose walking instead of traveling using vehicles. Thus, proper planning of pedestrians- paths is important to ensure the safety of pedestrians in a walking area. Crowd dynamics study the pedestrians- behavior and modeling pedestrians- movement to ensure safety in their walking paths. To date, many models have been designed to ease pedestrians- movement. The Social Force Model is widely used among researchers as it is simpler and provides better simulation results. We will discuss the problem regarding the ritual of circumambulating the Ka-aba (Tawaf) where the entrances to this area are usually congested which worsens during the Hajj season. We will use the computer simulation model SimWalk which is based on the Social Force Model to simulate the movement of pilgrims in the Tawaf area. We will first discuss the effect of uni and bi-directional flows at the gates. We will then restrict certain gates to the area as the entrances only and others as exits only. From the simulations, we will study the effect of the distance of other entrances from the beginning line and their effects on the duration of pilgrims circumambulate Ka-aba. We will distribute the pilgrims at the different entrances evenly so that the congestion at the entrances can be reduced. We would also discuss the various locations and designs of barriers at the exits and its effect on the time taken for the pilgrims to exit the Tawaf area.

Keywords: circumambulation, Ka'aba, pedestrian flow, SFM, Tawaf , entrance, exit

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153 Formex Algebra Adaptation into Parametric Design Tools: Dome Structures

Authors: Réka Sárközi, Péter Iványi, Attila B. Széll

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to present the adaptation of the dome construction tool for formex algebra to the parametric design software Grasshopper. Formex algebra is a mathematical system, primarily used for planning structural systems such like truss-grid domes and vaults, together with the programming language Formian. The goal of the research is to allow architects to plan truss-grid structures easily with parametric design tools based on the versatile formex algebra mathematical system. To produce regular structures, coordinate system transformations are used and the dome structures are defined in spherical coordinate system. Owing to the abilities of the parametric design software, it is possible to apply further modifications on the structures and gain special forms. The paper covers the basic dome types, and also additional dome-based structures using special coordinate-system solutions based on spherical coordinate systems. It also contains additional structural possibilities like making double layer grids in all geometry forms. The adaptation of formex algebra and the parametric workflow of Grasshopper together give the possibility of quick and easy design and optimization of special truss-grid domes.

Keywords: Parametric design, structural morphology, space structures, spherical coordinate system.

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152 Steering Velocity Bounded Mobile Robots in Environments with Partially Known Obstacles

Authors: Reza Hossseynie, Amir Jafari

Abstract:

This paper presents a method for steering velocity bounded mobile robots in environments with partially known stationary obstacles. The exact location of obstacles is unknown and only a probability distribution associated with the location of the obstacles is known. Kinematic model of a 2-wheeled differential drive robot is used as the model of mobile robot. The presented control strategy uses the Artificial Potential Field (APF) method for devising a desired direction of movement for the robot at each instant of time while the Constrained Directions Control (CDC) uses the generated direction to produce the control signals required for steering the robot. The location of each obstacle is considered to be the mean value of the 2D probability distribution and similarly, the magnitude of the electric charge in the APF is set as the trace of covariance matrix of the location probability distribution. The method not only captures the challenges of planning the path (i.e. probabilistic nature of the location of unknown obstacles), but it also addresses the output saturation which is considered to be an important issue from the control perspective. Moreover, velocity of the robot can be controlled during the steering. For example, the velocity of robot can be reduced in close vicinity of obstacles and target to ensure safety. Finally, the control strategy is simulated for different scenarios to show how the method can be put into practice.

Keywords: Steering, obstacle avoidance, mobile robots, constrained directions control, artificial potential field.

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151 Voltage Stability Margin-Based Approach for Placement of Distributed Generators in Power Systems

Authors: Oludamilare Bode Adewuyi, Yanxia Sun, Isaiah Gbadegesin Adebayo

Abstract:

Voltage stability analysis is crucial to the reliable and economic operation of power systems. The power system of developing nations is more susceptible to failures due to the continuously increasing load demand which is not matched with generation increase and efficient transmission infrastructures. Thus, most power systems are heavily stressed and the planning of extra generation from distributed generation sources needs to be efficiently done so as to ensure the security of the power system. In this paper, the performance of a relatively different approach using line voltage stability margin indicator, which has proven to have better accuracy, has been presented and compared with a conventional line voltage stability index for distributed generators (DGs) siting using the Nigerian 28 bus system. Critical Boundary Index (CBI) for voltage stability margin estimation was deployed to identify suitable locations for DG placement and the performance was compared with DG placement using Novel Line Stability Index (NLSI) approach. From the simulation results, both CBI and NLSI agreed greatly on suitable locations for DG on the test system; while CBI identified bus 18 as the most suitable at system overload, NLSI identified bus 8 to be the most suitable. Considering the effect of the DG placement at the selected buses on the voltage magnitude profile, the result shows that the DG placed on bus 18 identified by CBI improved the performance of the power system better.

Keywords: Voltage stability analysis, voltage collapse, voltage stability index, distributed generation.

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150 A Multi-layer Artificial Neural Network Architecture Design for Load Forecasting in Power Systems

Authors: Axay J Mehta, Hema A Mehta, T.C.Manjunath, C. Ardil

Abstract:

In this paper, the modelling and design of artificial neural network architecture for load forecasting purposes is investigated. The primary pre-requisite for power system planning is to arrive at realistic estimates of future demand of power, which is known as Load Forecasting. Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) helps in determining the economic, reliable and secure operating strategies for power system. The dependence of load on several factors makes the load forecasting a very challenging job. An over estimation of the load may cause premature investment and unnecessary blocking of the capital where as under estimation of load may result in shortage of equipment and circuits. It is always better to plan the system for the load slightly higher than expected one so that no exigency may arise. In this paper, a load-forecasting model is proposed using a multilayer neural network with an appropriately modified back propagation learning algorithm. Once the neural network model is designed and trained, it can forecast the load of the power system 24 hours ahead on daily basis and can also forecast the cumulative load on daily basis. The real load data that is used for the Artificial Neural Network training was taken from LDC, Gujarat Electricity Board, Jambuva, Gujarat, India. The results show that the load forecasting of the ANN model follows the actual load pattern more accurately throughout the forecasted period.

Keywords: Power system, Load forecasting, Neural Network, Neuron, Stabilization, Network structure, Load.

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149 GCM Based Fuzzy Clustering to Identify Homogeneous Climatic Regions of North-East India

Authors: Arup K. Sarma, Jayshree Hazarika

Abstract:

The North-eastern part of India, which receives heavier rainfall than other parts of the subcontinent, is of great concern now-a-days with regard to climate change. High intensity rainfall for short duration and longer dry spell, occurring due to impact of climate change, affects river morphology too. In the present study, an attempt is made to delineate the North-eastern region of India into some homogeneous clusters based on the Fuzzy Clustering concept and to compare the resulting clusters obtained by using conventional methods and nonconventional methods of clustering. The concept of clustering is adapted in view of the fact that, impact of climate change can be studied in a homogeneous region without much variation, which can be helpful in studies related to water resources planning and management. 10 IMD (Indian Meteorological Department) stations, situated in various regions of the North-east, have been selected for making the clusters. The results of the Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) analysis show different clustering patterns for different conditions. From the analysis and comparison it can be concluded that nonconventional method of using GCM data is somehow giving better results than the others. However, further analysis can be done by taking daily data instead of monthly means to reduce the effect of standardization.

Keywords: Climate change, conventional and nonconventional methods of clustering, FCM analysis, homogeneous regions.

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148 Solving Part Type Selection and Loading Problem in Flexible Manufacturing System Using Real Coded Genetic Algorithms – Part II: Optimization

Authors: Wayan F. Mahmudy, Romeo M. Marian, Lee H. S. Luong

Abstract:

This paper presents modeling and optimization of two NP-hard problems in flexible manufacturing system (FMS), part type selection problem and loading problem. Due to the complexity and extent of the problems, the paper was split into two parts. The first part of the papers has discussed the modeling of the problems and showed how the real coded genetic algorithms (RCGA) can be applied to solve the problems. This second part discusses the effectiveness of the RCGA which uses an array of real numbers as chromosome representation. The novel proposed chromosome representation produces only feasible solutions which minimize a computational time needed by GA to push its population toward feasible search space or repair infeasible chromosomes. The proposed RCGA improves the FMS performance by considering two objectives, maximizing system throughput and maintaining the balance of the system (minimizing system unbalance). The resulted objective values are compared to the optimum values produced by branch-and-bound method. The experiments show that the proposed RCGA could reach near optimum solutions in a reasonable amount of time.

Keywords: Flexible manufacturing system, production planning, part type selection problem, loading problem, real-coded genetic algorithm

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147 A Self Supervised Bi-directional Neural Network (BDSONN) Architecture for Object Extraction Guided by Beta Activation Function and Adaptive Fuzzy Context Sensitive Thresholding

Authors: Siddhartha Bhattacharyya, Paramartha Dutta, Ujjwal Maulik, Prashanta Kumar Nandi

Abstract:

A multilayer self organizing neural neural network (MLSONN) architecture for binary object extraction, guided by a beta activation function and characterized by backpropagation of errors estimated from the linear indices of fuzziness of the network output states, is discussed. Since the MLSONN architecture is designed to operate in a single point fixed/uniform thresholding scenario, it does not take into cognizance the heterogeneity of image information in the extraction process. The performance of the MLSONN architecture with representative values of the threshold parameters of the beta activation function employed is also studied. A three layer bidirectional self organizing neural network (BDSONN) architecture comprising fully connected neurons, for the extraction of objects from a noisy background and capable of incorporating the underlying image context heterogeneity through variable and adaptive thresholding, is proposed in this article. The input layer of the network architecture represents the fuzzy membership information of the image scene to be extracted. The second layer (the intermediate layer) and the final layer (the output layer) of the network architecture deal with the self supervised object extraction task by bi-directional propagation of the network states. Each layer except the output layer is connected to the next layer following a neighborhood based topology. The output layer neurons are in turn, connected to the intermediate layer following similar topology, thus forming a counter-propagating architecture with the intermediate layer. The novelty of the proposed architecture is that the assignment/updating of the inter-layer connection weights are done using the relative fuzzy membership values at the constituent neurons in the different network layers. Another interesting feature of the network lies in the fact that the processing capabilities of the intermediate and the output layer neurons are guided by a beta activation function, which uses image context sensitive adaptive thresholding arising out of the fuzzy cardinality estimates of the different network neighborhood fuzzy subsets, rather than resorting to fixed and single point thresholding. An application of the proposed architecture for object extraction is demonstrated using a synthetic and a real life image. The extraction efficiency of the proposed network architecture is evaluated by a proposed system transfer index characteristic of the network.

Keywords: Beta activation function, fuzzy cardinality, multilayer self organizing neural network, object extraction,

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146 Material Density Mapping on Deformable 3D Models of Human Organs

Authors: Petru Manescu, Joseph Azencot, Michael Beuve, Hamid Ladjal, Jacques Saade, Jean-Michel Morreau, Philippe Giraud, Behzad Shariat

Abstract:

Organ motion, especially respiratory motion, is a technical challenge to radiation therapy planning and dosimetry. This motion induces displacements and deformation of the organ tissues within the irradiated region which need to be taken into account when simulating dose distribution during treatment. Finite element modeling (FEM) can provide a great insight into the mechanical behavior of the organs, since they are based on the biomechanical material properties, complex geometry of organs, and anatomical boundary conditions. In this paper we present an original approach that offers the possibility to combine image-based biomechanical models with particle transport simulations. We propose a new method to map material density information issued from CT images to deformable tetrahedral meshes. Based on the principle of mass conservation our method can correlate density variation of organ tissues with geometrical deformations during the different phases of the respiratory cycle. The first results are particularly encouraging, as local error quantification of density mapping on organ geometry and density variation with organ motion are performed to evaluate and validate our approach.

Keywords: Biomechanical simulation, dose distribution, image guided radiation therapy, organ motion, tetrahedral mesh, 4D-CT.

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145 Pushover Analysis of Masonry Infilled Reinforced Concrete Frames for Performance Based Design for Near Field Earthquakes

Authors: Alok Madan, Ashok Gupta, Arshad K. Hashmi

Abstract:

Non-linear dynamic time history analysis is considered as the most advanced and comprehensive analytical method for evaluating the seismic response and performance of multi-degree-of-freedom building structures under the influence of earthquake ground motions. However, effective and accurate application of the method requires the implementation of advanced hysteretic constitutive models of the various structural components including masonry infill panels. Sophisticated computational research tools that incorporate realistic hysteresis models for non-linear dynamic time-history analysis are not popular among the professional engineers as they are not only difficult to access but also complex and time-consuming to use. In addition, commercial computer programs for structural analysis and design that are acceptable to practicing engineers do not generally integrate advanced hysteretic models which can accurately simulate the hysteresis behavior of structural elements with a realistic representation of strength degradation, stiffness deterioration, energy dissipation and ‘pinching’ under cyclic load reversals in the inelastic range of behavior. In this scenario, push-over or non-linear static analysis methods have gained significant popularity, as they can be employed to assess the seismic performance of building structures while avoiding the complexities and difficulties associated with non-linear dynamic time-history analysis. “Push-over” or non-linear static analysis offers a practical and efficient alternative to non-linear dynamic time-history analysis for rationally evaluating the seismic demands. The present paper is based on the analytical investigation of the effect of distribution of masonry infill panels over the elevation of planar masonry infilled reinforced concrete [R/C] frames on the seismic demands using the capacity spectrum procedures implementing nonlinear static analysis [pushover analysis] in conjunction with the response spectrum concept. An important objective of the present study is to numerically evaluate the adequacy of the capacity spectrum method using pushover analysis for performance based design of masonry infilled R/C frames for near-field earthquake ground motions.

Keywords: Nonlinear analysis, capacity spectrum method, response spectrum, seismic demand, near-field earthquakes.

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144 An Optimal Load Shedding Approach for Distribution Networks with DGs considering Capacity Deficiency Modelling of Bulked Power Supply

Authors: A. R. Malekpour, A.R. Seifi

Abstract:

This paper discusses a genetic algorithm (GA) based optimal load shedding that can apply for electrical distribution networks with and without dispersed generators (DG). Also, the proposed method has the ability for considering constant and variable capacity deficiency caused by unscheduled outages in the bulked generation and transmission system of bulked power supply. The genetic algorithm (GA) is employed to search for the optimal load shedding strategy in distribution networks considering DGs in two cases of constant and variable modelling of bulked power supply of distribution networks. Electrical power distribution systems have a radial network and unidirectional power flows. With the advent of dispersed generations, the electrical distribution system has a locally looped network and bidirectional power flows. Therefore, installed DG in the electrical distribution systems can cause operational problems and impact on existing operational schemes. Introduction of DGs in electrical distribution systems has introduced many new issues in operational and planning level. Load shedding as one of operational issue has no exempt. The objective is to minimize the sum of curtailed load and also system losses within the frame-work of system operational and security constraints. The proposed method is tested on a radial distribution system with 33 load points for more practical applications.

Keywords: DG, Load shedding, Optimization, Capacity Deficiency Modelling.

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143 Hazard Identification and Sensitivity of Potential Resource of Emergency Water Supply

Authors: A. Bumbová, M. Čáslavský, F. Božek, J. Dvořák, E. Bakoš

Abstract:

The paper presents the case study of hazard identification and sensitivity of potential resource of emergency water supply as part of the application of methodology classifying the resources of drinking water for emergency supply of population. The case study has been carried out on a selected resource of emergency water supply in one region of the Czech Republic. The hazard identification and sensitivity of potential resource of emergency water supply is based on a unique procedure and developed general registers of selected types of hazards and sensitivities. The registers have been developed with the help of the “Fault Tree Analysis” method in combination with the “What if method”. The identified hazards for the assessed resource include hailstorms and torrential rains, drought, soil erosion, accidents of farm machinery, and agricultural production. The developed registers of hazards and vulnerabilities and a semi-quantitative assessment of hazards for individual parts of hydrological structure and technological elements of presented drilled wells are the basis for a semi-quantitative risk assessment of potential resource of emergency supply of population and the subsequent classification of such resource within the system of crisis planning.

Keywords: Hazard identification, register of hazards, sensitivity identification, register of sensitivity, emergency water supply, state of crisis, resource of emergency water supply, ground water.

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142 Comparative Performance of Artificial Bee Colony Based Algorithms for Wind-Thermal Unit Commitment

Authors: P. K. Singhal, R. Naresh, V. Sharma

Abstract:

This paper presents the three optimization models, namely New Binary Artificial Bee Colony (NBABC) algorithm, NBABC with Local Search (NBABC-LS), and NBABC with Genetic Crossover (NBABC-GC) for solving the Wind-Thermal Unit Commitment (WTUC) problem. The uncertain nature of the wind power is incorporated using the Weibull probability density function, which is used to calculate the overestimation and underestimation costs associated with the wind power fluctuation. The NBABC algorithm utilizes a mechanism based on the dissimilarity measure between binary strings for generating the binary solutions in WTUC problem. In NBABC algorithm, an intelligent scout bee phase is proposed that replaces the abandoned solution with the global best solution. The local search operator exploits the neighboring region of the current solutions, whereas the integration of genetic crossover with the NBABC algorithm increases the diversity in the search space and thus avoids the problem of local trappings encountered with the NBABC algorithm. These models are then used to decide the units on/off status, whereas the lambda iteration method is used to dispatch the hourly load demand among the committed units. The effectiveness of the proposed models is validated on an IEEE 10-unit thermal system combined with a wind farm over the planning period of 24 hours.

Keywords: Artificial bee colony algorithm, economic dispatch, unit commitment, wind power.

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141 Comparative Performance of Artificial Bee Colony Based Algorithms for Wind-Thermal Unit Commitment

Authors: P. K. Singhal, R. Naresh, V. Sharma

Abstract:

This paper presents the three optimization models, namely New Binary Artificial Bee Colony (NBABC) algorithm, NBABC with Local Search (NBABC-LS), and NBABC with Genetic Crossover (NBABC-GC) for solving the Wind-Thermal Unit Commitment (WTUC) problem. The uncertain nature of the wind power is incorporated using the Weibull probability density function, which is used to calculate the overestimation and underestimation costs associated with the wind power fluctuation. The NBABC algorithm utilizes a mechanism based on the dissimilarity measure between binary strings for generating the binary solutions in WTUC problem. In NBABC algorithm, an intelligent scout bee phase is proposed that replaces the abandoned solution with the global best solution. The local search operator exploits the neighboring region of the current solutions, whereas the integration of genetic crossover with the NBABC algorithm increases the diversity in the search space and thus avoids the problem of local trappings encountered with the NBABC algorithm. These models are then used to decide the units on/off status, whereas the lambda iteration method is used to dispatch the hourly load demand among the committed units. The effectiveness of the proposed models is validated on an IEEE 10-unit thermal system combined with a wind farm over the planning period of 24 hours.

Keywords: Artificial bee colony algorithm, economic dispatch, unit commitment, wind power.

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140 Emergency Generator Sizing and Motor Starting Analysis

Authors: Mukesh Kumar Kirar, Ganga Agnihotri

Abstract:

This paper investigates the preliminary sizing of generator set to design electrical system at the early phase of a project, dynamic behavior of generator-unit, as well as induction motors, during start-up of the induction motor drives fed from emergency generator unit. The information in this paper simplifies generator set selection and eliminates common errors in selection. It covers load estimation, step loading capacity test, transient analysis for the emergency generator set. The dynamic behavior of the generator-unit, power, power factor, voltage, during Direct-on-Line start-up of the induction motor drives fed from stand alone gene-set is also discussed. It is important to ensure that plant generators operate safely and consistently, power system studies are required at the planning and conceptual design stage of the project. The most widely recognized and studied effect of motor starting is the voltage dip that is experienced throughout an industrial power system as the direct online result of starting large motors. Generator step loading capability and transient voltage dip during starting of largest motor is ensured with the help of Electrical Transient Analyzer Program (ETAP).

Keywords: Sizing, induction motor starting, load estimation, Transient Analyzer Program (ETAP).

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139 A Comparative Study on the Dimensional Error of 3D CAD Model and SLS RP Model for Reconstruction of Cranial Defect

Authors: L. Siva Rama Krishna, Sriram Venkatesh, M. Sastish Kumar, M. Uma Maheswara Chary

Abstract:

Rapid Prototyping (RP) is a technology that produces models and prototype parts from 3D CAD model data, CT/MRI scan data, and model data created from 3D object digitizing systems. There are several RP process like Stereolithography (SLA), Solid Ground Curing (SGC), Selective Laser Sintering (SLS), Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM), 3D Printing (3DP) among them SLS and FDM RP processes are used to fabricate pattern of custom cranial implant. RP technology is useful in engineering and biomedical application. This is helpful in engineering for product design, tooling and manufacture etc. RP biomedical applications are design and development of medical devices, instruments, prosthetics and implantation; it is also helpful in planning complex surgical operation. The traditional approach limits the full appreciation of various bony structure movements and therefore the custom implants produced are difficult to measure the anatomy of parts and analyze the changes in facial appearances accurately. Cranioplasty surgery is a surgical correction of a defect in cranial bone by implanting a metal or plastic replacement to restore the missing part. This paper aims to do a comparative study on the dimensional error of CAD and SLS RP Models for reconstruction of cranial defect by comparing the virtual CAD with the physical RP model of a cranial defect.

Keywords: Rapid Prototyping, Selective Laser Sintering, Cranial defect, Dimensional Error.

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138 Enhancing Children’s English Vocabulary Acquisition through Digital Storytelling at Happy Kids Kindergarten, Palembang, Indonesia

Authors: Gaya Tridinanti

Abstract:

Enhanching English vocabulary in early childhood is the main problem often faced by teachers. Thus, the purpose of this study was to determine the enhancement of children’s English vocabulary acquisition by using digital storytelling. This type of research was an action research. It consisted of a series of four activities done in repeated cycles: planning, implementation, observation, and reflection. The subject of the study consisted of 30 students of B group (5-6 years old) attending Happy Kids Kindergarten Palembang, Indonesia. This research was conducted in three cycles. The methods used for data collection were observation and documentation. Descriptive qualitative and quantitative methods were also used to analyse the data. The research showed that the digital storytelling learning activities could enhance the children’s English vocabulary acquisition. It is based on the data in which the enhancement in pre-cycle was 37% and 51% in Cycle I. In Cycle II it was 71% and in Cycle III it was 89.3%. The results showed an enhancement of about 14% from the pre-cycle to Cycle I, 20% from Cycle I to Cycle II, and enhancement of about 18.3% from Cycle II to Cycle III. The conclusion of this study suggests that digital storytelling learning method could enhance the English vocabulary acquisition of B group children at the Happy Kids Kindergarten Palembang. Therefore, digital storytelling can be considered as an alternative to improve English language learning in the classroom.

Keywords: Acquisition, enhancing, digital storytelling, English vocabulary.

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137 Urban Greenery in the Greatest Polish Cities: Analysis of Spatial Concentration

Authors: Elżbieta Antczak

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Cities offer important opportunities for economic development and for expanding access to basic services, including health care and education, for large numbers of people. Moreover, green areas (as an integral part of sustainable urban development) present a major opportunity for improving urban environments, quality of lives and livelihoods. This paper examines, using spatial concentration and spatial taxonomic measures, regional diversification of greenery in the cities of Poland. The analysis includes location quotients, Lorenz curve, Locational Gini Index, and the synthetic index of greenery and spatial statistics tools: (1) To verify the occurrence of strong concentration or dispersion of the phenomenon in time and space depending on the variable category, and, (2) To study if the level of greenery depends on the spatial autocorrelation. The data includes the greatest Polish cities, categories of the urban greenery (parks, lawns, street greenery, and green areas on housing estates, cemeteries, and forests) and the time span 2004-2015. According to the obtained estimations, most of cites in Poland are already taking measures to become greener. However, in the country there are still many barriers to well-balanced urban greenery development (e.g. uncontrolled urban sprawl, poor management as well as lack of spatial urban planning systems).

Keywords: Greenery, urban areas, regional spatial diversification and concentration, spatial taxonomic measure.

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136 Steps towards the Development of National Health Data Standards in Developing Countries: An Exploratory Qualitative Study in Saudi Arabia

Authors: Abdullah I. Alkraiji, Thomas W. Jackson, Ian R. Murray

Abstract:

The proliferation of health data standards today is somewhat overlapping and conflicting, resulting in market confusion and leading to increasing proprietary interests. The government role and support in standardization for health data are thought to be crucial in order to establish credible standards for the next decade, to maximize interoperability across the health sector, and to decrease the risks associated with the implementation of non-standard systems. The normative literature missed out the exploration of the different steps required to be undertaken by the government towards the development of national health data standards. Based on the lessons learned from a qualitative study investigating the different issues to the adoption of health data standards in the major tertiary hospitals in Saudi Arabia and the opinions and feedback from different experts in the areas of data exchange and standards and medical informatics in Saudi Arabia and UK, a list of steps required towards the development of national health data standards was constructed. Main steps are the existence of: a national formal reference for health data standards, an agreed national strategic direction for medical data exchange, a national medical information management plan and a national accreditation body, and more important is the change management at the national and organizational level. The outcome of this study can be used by academics and practitioners to develop the planning of health data standards, and in particular those in developing countries.

Keywords: Interoperability, Case Study, Health Data Standards, Medical Data Exchange, Saudi Arabia.

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