Search results for: Predicted models

Authors: S. Thirumurugan, D. R. Prince Williams

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Software Reliability is one of the key factors in the software development process. Software Reliability is estimated using reliability models based on Non Homogenous Poisson Process. In most of the literature the Software Reliability is predicted only in testing phase. So it leads to wrong decision-making concept. In this paper, two Software Reliability concepts, testing and operational phase are studied in detail. Using S-Shaped Software Reliability Growth Model (SRGM) and Exponential SRGM, the testing and operational reliability values are obtained. Finally two reliability values are compared and optimal release time is investigated.

Keywords: Error Detection Rate, Estimation of Parameters, Instantaneous Failure Rate, Mean Value Function, Non Homogenous Poisson Process (NHPP), Software Reliability.

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Authors: Erika Ann Schaub, Christian J Darken

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Sociological models (e.g., social network analysis, small-group dynamic and gang models) have historically been used to predict the behavior of terrorist groups. However, they may not be the most appropriate method for understanding the behavior of terrorist organizations because the models were not initially intended to incorporate violent behavior of its subjects. Rather, models that incorporate life and death competition between subjects, i.e., models utilized by scientists to examine the behavior of wildlife populations, may provide a more accurate analysis. This paper suggests the use of biological models to attain a more robust method for understanding the behavior of terrorist organizations as compared to traditional methods. This study also describes how a biological population model incorporating predator-prey behavior factors can predict terrorist organizational recruitment behavior for the purpose of understanding the factors that govern the growth and decline of terrorist organizations. The Lotka-Volterra, a biological model that is based on a predator-prey relationship, is applied to a highly suggestive case study, that of the Irish Republican Army. This case study illuminates how a biological model can be utilized to understand the actions of a terrorist organization.

Keywords: Biological Models, Lotka-Volterra Predator-Prey Model, Terrorist Organizational Behavior, Terrorist Recruitment.

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Authors: Saih Mohamed, Rouijaa Hicham, Ghammaz Abdelilah

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This paper presents circuit models to analyze the conducted susceptibility of multiconductor shielded cables in frequency domains using Branin’s method, which is referred to as the method of characteristics. These models, which can be used directly in the time and frequency domains, take into account the presence of both the transfer impedance and admittance. The conducted susceptibility is studied by using an injection current on the cable shield as the source. Two examples are studied; a coaxial shielded cable and shielded cables with two parallel wires (i.e., twinax cables). This shield has an asymmetry (one slot on the side). Results obtained by these models are in good agreement with those obtained by other methods.

Keywords: Circuit models, multiconductor shielded cables, Branin’s method, coaxial shielded cable, twinax cables.

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Authors: Mohamed Elhakeem, A. N. Thanos Papanicolaou, Christopher Wilson, Yi-Jia Chang

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In this study, a physically-based, modeling framework was developed to predict saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_sat) dynamics in the Clear Creek Watershed (CCW), Iowa. The modeling framework integrated selected pedotransfer functions and watershed models with geospatial tools. A number of pedotransfer functions and agricultural watershed models were examined to select the appropriate models that represent the study site conditions. Models selection was based on statistical measures of the models’ errors compared to the K_sat field measurements conducted in the CCW under different soil, climate and land use conditions. The study has shown that the predictions of the combined pedotransfer function of Rosetta and the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) provided the best agreement to the measured K_sat values in the CCW compared to the other tested models. Therefore, Rosetta and WEPP were integrated with the Geographic Information System (GIS) tools for visualization of the data in forms of geospatial maps and prediction of K_sat variability in CCW due to the seasonal changes in climate and land use activities. 

Keywords: Saturated hydraulic conductivity, pedotransfer functions, watershed models, geospatial tools.

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Authors: Keny Ordaz-Hernandez, Xavier Fischer, Fouad Bennis

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This article illustrates a model selection management approach for virtual prototypes in interactive simulations. In those numerical simulations, the virtual prototype and its environment are modelled as a multiagent system, where every entity (prototype,human, etc.) is modelled as an agent. In particular, virtual prototyp ingagents that provide mathematical models of mechanical behaviour inform of computational methods are considered. This work argues that selection of an appropriate model in a changing environment,supported by models? characteristics, can be managed by the deter-mination a priori of specific exploitation and performance measures of virtual prototype models. As different models exist to represent a single phenomenon, it is not always possible to select the best one under all possible circumstances of the environment. Instead the most appropriate shall be selecting according to the use case. The proposed approach consists in identifying relevant metrics or indicators for each group of models (e.g. entity models, global model), formulate their qualification, analyse the performance, and apply the qualification criteria. Then, a model can be selected based on the performance prediction obtained from its qualification. The authors hope that this approach will not only help to inform engineers and researchers about another approach for selecting virtual prototype models, but also assist virtual prototype engineers in the systematic or automatic model selection.

Keywords: Virtual prototype models, domain, qualification criterion, model qualification, model assessment, environmental modelling.

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Authors: Zhou Yu, Jiang Feng

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An adaptive Chinese hand-talking system is presented in this paper. By analyzing the 3 data collecting strategies for new users, the adaptation framework including supervised and unsupervised adaptation methods is proposed. For supervised adaptation, affinity propagation (AP) is used to extract exemplar subsets, and enhanced maximum a posteriori / vector field smoothing (eMAP/VFS) is proposed to pool the adaptation data among different models. For unsupervised adaptation, polynomial segment models (PSMs) are used to help hidden Markov models (HMMs) to accurately label the unlabeled data, then the "labeled" data together with signerindependent models are inputted to MAP algorithm to generate signer-adapted models. Experimental results show that the proposed framework can execute both supervised adaptation with small amount of labeled data and unsupervised adaptation with large amount of unlabeled data to tailor the original models, and both achieve improvements on the performance of recognition rate.

Keywords: sign language recognition, signer adaptation, eMAP/VFS, polynomial segment model.

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Authors: Nice Vasconcelos Coimbra, Fábio dos Santos Gonçalves, Marisa Nascimento, Ellen Cristine Giese

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The development of chemical routes for the recovery and separation of rare earth elements (REE) is seen as a priority and strategic action by several countries demanding these elements. Among the possibilities of alternative routes, the biosorption process has been evaluated in our laboratory. In this theme, the present work attempts to assess and fit the solution equilibrium data in Langmuir, Freundlich and DKR isothermal models, based on the biosorption results of the lanthanum and samarium elements by Bacillus subtilis immobilized on calcium alginate gel. It was observed that the preference of adsorption of REE by the immobilized biomass followed the order Sm (III)> La (III). It can be concluded that among the studied isotherms models, the Langmuir model presented better mathematical results than the Freundlich and DKR models.

Keywords: Rare earth elements, biosorption, Bacillus subtilis, adsorption isotherm models.

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Authors: Mikhail Gritskevich, Sebastian Hohenstein

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The paper presents the results of a detailed assessment of several modern Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence models for prediction of C3X vane film cooling at various injection regimes. Three models are considered, namely the Shear Stress Transport (SST) model, the modification of the SST model accounting for the streamlines curvature (SST-CC), and the Explicit Algebraic Reynolds Stress Model (EARSM). It is shown that all the considered models face with a problem in prediction of the adiabatic effectiveness in the vicinity of the cooling holes; however, accounting for the Reynolds stress anisotropy within the EARSM model noticeably increases the solution accuracy. On the other hand, further downstream all the models provide a reasonable agreement with the experimental data for the adiabatic effectiveness and among the considered models the most accurate results are obtained with the use EARMS.

Keywords: Discrete holes film cooling, Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes, Reynolds stress tensor anisotropy, turbulent heat transfer.

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Authors: John P. O’Sullivan, Thomas M. P. Ratouis, Michael J. O’Sullivan

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As the use of geothermal energy grows internationally more effort is required to monitor and protect areas with rare and important geothermal surface features. A number of approaches are presented for developing and calibrating numerical geothermal reservoir models that are capable of accurately representing geothermal surface features. The approaches are discussed in the context of cases studies of the Rotorua geothermal system and the Orakei-korako geothermal system, both of which contain important surface features. The results show that models are able to match the available field data accurately and hence can be used as valuable tools for predicting the future response of the systems to changes in use.

Keywords: Geothermal reservoir models, surface features, monitoring, TOUGH2.

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Authors: N. Sopipan, A. Intarasit, K. Chuarkham

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 In this paper, we forecast the volatility of Baht/USDs using Markov Regime Switching GARCH (MRS-GARCH) models. These models allow volatility to have different dynamics according to unobserved regime variables. The main purpose of this paper is to find out whether MRS-GARCH models are an improvement on the GARCH type models in terms of modeling and forecasting Baht/USD volatility. The MRS-GARCH is the best performance model for Baht/USD volatility in short term but the GARCH model is best perform for long term.

Keywords: Volatility, Markov Regime Switching, Forecasting.

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Authors: Abdullahi Jibrin, Aishetu Abdulkadir

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The development of allometric models is crucial to accurate forest biomass/carbon stock assessment. The aim of this study was to develop a set of biomass prediction models that will enable the determination of total tree aboveground biomass for savannah woodland area in Niger State, Nigeria. Based on the data collected through biometric measurements of 1816 trees and destructive sampling of 36 trees, five species specific and one site specific models were developed. The sample size was distributed equally between the five most dominant species in the study site (Vitellaria paradoxa, Irvingia gabonensis, Parkia biglobosa, Anogeissus leiocarpus, Pterocarpus erinaceous). Firstly, the equations were developed for five individual species. Secondly these five species were mixed and were used to develop an allometric equation of mixed species. Overall, there was a strong positive relationship between total tree biomass and the stem diameter. The coefficient of determination (R2 values) ranging from 0.93 to 0.99 P < 0.001 were realised for the models; with considerable low standard error of the estimates (SEE) which confirms that the total tree above ground biomass has a significant relationship with the dbh. F-test values for the biomass prediction models were also significant at p < 0.001 which indicates that the biomass prediction models are valid. This study recommends that for improved biomass estimates in the study site, the site specific biomass models should preferably be used instead of using generic models.

Keywords: Allometriy, biomass, carbon stock, model, regression equation, woodland, inventory.

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Authors: Lenka Ševelová, Aleš Florian

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Appropriate and progressive tool for analyzing behavior of low volume roads are probabilistic models used in reliability analyses. The necessary part of the probabilistic model is the deterministic model of structural behavior. The FE model of low volume roads is created in the ANSYS software. It is able to determine the state of stress and deformation in any point of the structure and thus generate data required for the reliability analysis. The paper compares two material constitutive models used for modeling of unbound non-homogenous materials used in low volume roads. The first model is linear elastic model according to Hook theory (H model), the second one is nonlinear elastic-plastic Drucker-Prager model (D-P model).

Keywords: FEA, FEM, geotechnical materials, low volume roads, material constitutive models, pavement.

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Authors: Faisal A. Aburub

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Organizations today need to invest in software in order to run their businesses, and to the organizations’ objectives, the software should be in line with the business process. This research presents an approach for linking process models and system models. Particularly, the new approach aims to synthesize sequence diagram based on role activity diagram (RAD) model. The approach includes four steps namely: Create business process model using RAD, identify computerized activities, identify entities in sequence diagram and identify messages in sequence diagram. The new approach has been validated using the process of student registration in University of Petra as a case study. Further research is required to validate the new approach using different domains.

Keywords: Business process modelling, system models, role activity diagrams, sequence diagrams.

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Authors: A. R. Binesh, S. Hossainpour

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Due to the stringent legislation for emission of diesel engines and also increasing demand on fuel consumption, the importance of detailed 3D simulation of fuel injection, mixing and combustion have been increased in the recent years. In the present work, FIRE code has been used to study the detailed modeling of spray and mixture formation in a Caterpillar heavy-duty diesel engine. The paper provides an overview of the submodels implemented, which account for liquid spray atomization, droplet secondary break-up, droplet collision, impingement, turbulent dispersion and evaporation. The simulation was performed from intake valve closing (IVC) to exhaust valve opening (EVO). The predicted in-cylinder pressure is validated by comparing with existing experimental data. A good agreement between the predicted and experimental values ensures the accuracy of the numerical predictions collected with the present work. Predictions of engine emissions were also performed and a good quantitative agreement between measured and predicted NOx and soot emission data were obtained with the use of the present Zeldowich mechanism and Hiroyasu model. In addition, the results reported in this paper illustrate that the numerical simulation can be one of the most powerful and beneficial tools for the internal combustion engine design, optimization and performance analysis.

Keywords: Diesel engine, Combustion, Pollution, CFD.

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Authors: Jianguo Tang, Kun She, William Zhu

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Covering-based rough sets is an extension of rough sets and it is based on a covering instead of a partition of the universe. Therefore it is more powerful in describing some practical problems than rough sets. However, by extending the rough sets, covering-based rough sets can increase the roughness of each model in recognizing objects. How to obtain better approximations from the models of a covering-based rough sets is an important issue. In this paper, two concepts, determinate elements and indeterminate elements in a universe, are proposed and given precise definitions respectively. This research makes a reasonable refinement of the covering-element from a new viewpoint. And the refinement may generate better approximations of covering-based rough sets models. To prove the theory above, it is applied to eight major coveringbased rough sets models which are adapted from other literature. The result is, in all these models, the lower approximation increases effectively. Correspondingly, in all models, the upper approximation decreases with exceptions of two models in some special situations. Therefore, the roughness of recognizing objects is reduced. This research provides a new approach to the study and application of covering-based rough sets.

Keywords: Determinate element, indeterminate element, refinementof covering-element, refinement of covering, covering-basedrough sets.

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Authors: Nnamdi I. Nwulu, Shola G. Oroja

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It has become crucial over the years for nations to improve their credit scoring methods and techniques in light of the increasing volatility of the global economy. Statistical methods or tools have been the favoured means for this; however artificial intelligence or soft computing based techniques are becoming increasingly preferred due to their proficient and precise nature and relative simplicity. This work presents a comparison between Support Vector Machines and Artificial Neural Networks two popular soft computing models when applied to credit scoring. Amidst the different criteria-s that can be used for comparisons; accuracy, computational complexity and processing times are the selected criteria used to evaluate both models. Furthermore the German credit scoring dataset which is a real world dataset is used to train and test both developed models. Experimental results obtained from our study suggest that although both soft computing models could be used with a high degree of accuracy, Artificial Neural Networks deliver better results than Support Vector Machines.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, Credit Scoring, SoftComputing Models, Support Vector Machines.

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Authors: V. Ghadamyari, F. Samadi, F. Kowsary

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An inverse geometry problem is solved to predict an unknown irregular boundary profile. The aim is to minimize the objective function, which is the difference between real and computed temperatures, using three different versions of Conjugate Gradient Method. The gradient of the objective function, considered necessary in this method, obtained as a result of solving the adjoint equation. The abilities of three versions of Conjugate Gradient Method in predicting the boundary profile are compared using a numerical algorithm based on the method. The predicted shapes show that due to its convergence rate and accuracy of predicted values, the Powell-Beale version of the method is more effective than the Fletcher-Reeves and Polak –Ribiere versions.

Keywords: Boundary elements, Conjugate Gradient Method, Inverse Geometry Problem, Sensitivity equation.

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Authors: Luciana Montera

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DNA shuffling is a powerful method used for in vitro evolute molecules with specific functions and has application in areas such as, for example, pharmaceutical, medical and agricultural research. The success of such experiments is dependent on a variety of parameters and conditions that, sometimes, can not be properly pre-established. Here, two computational models predicting DNA shuffling results is presented and their use and results are evaluated against an empirical experiment. The in silico and in vitro results show agreement indicating the importance of these two models and motivating the study and development of new models.

Keywords: Computer simulation, DNA shuffling, in silico andin vitro comparison.

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Authors: Sarah Beaver, Renee Bryce

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Audiograms detect hearing impairment, but missing values pose problems. This work explores imputations in an attempt to improve accuracy. This work implements Linear Regression, Lasso, Linear Support Vector Regression, Bayesian Ridge, K Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Random Forest machine learning techniques to impute audiogram frequencies ranging from 125 Hz to 8000 Hz. The data contain patients who had or were candidates for cochlear implants. Accuracy is compared across two different Nested Cross-Validation k values. Over 4000 audiograms were used from 800 unique patients. Additionally, training on data combines and compares left and right ear audiograms versus single ear side audiograms. The accuracy achieved using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values for the best models for Random Forest ranges from 4.74 to 6.37. The R2 values for the best models for Random Forest ranges from .91 to .96. The accuracy achieved using RMSE values for the best models for KNN ranges from 5.00 to 7.72. The R2 values for the best models for KNN ranges from .89 to .95. The best imputation models received R2 between .89 to .96 and RMSE values less than 8dB. We also show that the accuracy of classification predictive models performed better with our imputation models versus constant imputations by a two percent increase.

Keywords: Machine Learning, audiograms, data imputations, single imputations.

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Authors: S. Madhavi, S. Abirami, C. Bharathi, B. Ekambaram, T. Krishna Sankar, A. Nattudurai, N. Vijayarangan

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The high utilization rate of Automated Teller Machine (ATM) has inevitably caused the phenomena of waiting for a long time in the queue. This in turn has increased the out of stock situations. The ATM utilization helps to determine the usage level and states the necessity of the ATM based on the utilization of the ATM system. The time in which the ATM used more frequently (peak time) and based on the predicted solution the necessary actions are taken by the bank management. The analysis can be done by using the concept of Data Mining and the major part are analyzed based on the predictive data mining. The results are predicted from the historical data (past data) and track the relevant solution which is required. Weka tool is used for the analysis of data based on predictive data mining.

Keywords: ATM, Bank Management, Data Mining, Historical data, Predictive Data Mining, Weka tool.

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Authors: Spiros Mazarakis, George Matzavinos, Peter P. Groumpos

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Economic models are complex dynamic systems with a lot of uncertainties and fuzzy data. Conventional modeling approaches using well known methods and techniques cannot provide realistic and satisfactory answers to today-s challenging economic problems. Qualitative modeling using fuzzy logic and intelligent system theories can be used to model macroeconomic models. Fuzzy Cognitive maps (FCM) is a new method been used to model the dynamic behavior of complex systems. For the first time FCMs and the Mamdani Model of Intelligent control is used to model macroeconomic models. This new model is referred as the Mamdani Rule-Based Fuzzy Cognitive Map (MBFCM) and provides the academic and research community with a new promising integrated advanced computational model. A new economic model is developed for a qualitative approach to Macroeconomic modeling. Fuzzy Controllers for such models are designed. Simulation results for an economic scenario are provided and extensively discussed

Keywords: Macroeconomic Models, Mamdani Rule Based- FCMs(MBFCMs), Qualitative and Dynamics System, Simulation.

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Authors: Pradip Kundu, Samarjit Kar, Manoranjan Maiti

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In this paper, some practical solid transportation models are formulated considering per trip capacity of each type of conveyances with crisp and rough unit transportation costs. This is applicable for the system in which full vehicles, e.g. trucks, rail coaches are to be booked for transportation of products so that transportation cost is determined on the full of the conveyances. The models with unit transportation costs as rough variables are transformed into deterministic forms using rough chance constrained programming with the help of trust measure. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the proposed models in crisp environment as well as with unit transportation costs as rough variables.

Keywords: Solid transportation problem, Rough set, Rough variable, Trust measure.

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Authors: Ashwini V. Chavan, Sukhanand S. Bhosale

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Challenges of weak soil subgrade are often resolved either by stabilization or reinforcing it. However, it is also practiced to reinforce the granular fill to improve the load-settlement behavior of it over weak soil strata. The inclusion of reinforcement in the engineered granular fill provided a new impetus for the development of enhanced Soil-Structure Interaction (SSI) models, also known as mechanical foundation models or lumped parameter models. Several researchers have been working in this direction to understand the mechanism of granular fill-reinforcement interaction and the response of weak soil under the application of load. These models have been developed by extending available SSI models such as the Winkler Model, Pasternak Model, Hetenyi Model, Kerr Model etc., and are helpful to visualize the load-settlement behavior of a physical system through 1-D and 2-D analysis considering beam and plate resting on the foundation, respectively. Based on the literature survey, these models are categorized as ‘Reinforced Pasternak Model,’ ‘Double Beam Model,’ ‘Reinforced Timoshenko Beam Model,’ and ‘Reinforced Kerr Model’. The present work reviews the past 30+ years of research in the field of SSI models for reinforced foundation systems, presenting the conceptual development of these models systematically and discussing their limitations. A flow-chart showing procedure for compution of deformation and mobilized tension is also incorporated in the paper. Special efforts are taken to tabulate the parameters and their significance in the load-settlement analysis, which may be helpful in future studies for the comparison and enhancement of results and findings of physical models. 

Keywords: geosynthetics, mathematical modeling, reinforced foundation, soil-structure interaction, ground improvement, soft soil

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Authors: J. H. Kim, J. H. Kwon, J. S. Park, K. J. Lim

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This paper has been investigated a technique that predicts the performance of a bar-type unimorph piezoelectric vibration actuator depending on the frequency. This paper has been proposed an equivalent circuit that can be easily analyzed for the bar-type unimorph piezoelectric vibration actuator. In the dynamic analysis, rigidity and resonance frequency, which are important mechanical elements, were derived using the basic beam theory. In the equivalent circuit analysis, the displacement and bandwidth of the piezoelectric vibration actuator depending on the frequency were predicted. Also, for the reliability of the derived equations, the predicted performance depending on the shape change was compared with the result of a finite element analysis program.

Keywords: Actuator, performance, piezoelectric, unimorph.Actuator, performance, piezoelectric, unimorph.

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Authors: Huihai Wu, Xiaohui Liu

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Using Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) to model genetic regulatory networks from gene expression data is one of the major paradigms for inferring the interactions among genes. Averaging a collection of models for predicting network is desired, rather than relying on a single high scoring model. In this paper, two kinds of model searching approaches are compared, which are Greedy hill-climbing Search with Restarts (GSR) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The GSR is preferred in many papers, but there is no such comparison study about which one is better for DBN models. Different types of experiments have been carried out to try to give a benchmark test to these approaches. Our experimental results demonstrated that on average the MCMC methods outperform the GSR in accuracy of predicted network, and having the comparable performance in time efficiency. By proposing the different variations of MCMC and employing simulated annealing strategy, the MCMC methods become more efficient and stable. Apart from comparisons between these approaches, another objective of this study is to investigate the feasibility of using DBN modeling approaches for inferring gene networks from few snapshots of high dimensional gene profiles. Through synthetic data experiments as well as systematic data experiments, the experimental results revealed how the performances of these approaches can be influenced as the target gene network varies in the network size, data size, as well as system complexity.

Keywords: Genetic regulatory network, Dynamic Bayesian network, GSR, MCMC.

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Authors: Gheorghe Galben, Daniel N. Aloi

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Recently, the Spherical Motion Models (SMM-s) have been introduced [1]. These new models have been developed for 3D local landmark-base Autonomous Navigation (AN). This paper is revealing new arguments and experimental results to support the SMM-s characteristics. The accuracy and the robustness in performing a specific task are the main concerns of the new investigations. To analyze their performances of the SMM-s, the most powerful tools of estimation theory, the extended Kalman filter (EKF) and unscented Kalman filter (UKF), which give the best estimations in noisy environments, have been employed. The Monte Carlo validation implementations used to test the stability and robustness of the models have been employed as well.

Keywords: Autonomous navigation, extended kalman filter, unscented kalman filter, localization algorithms.

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Authors: Emmanuel O.O. Ojakominor, Tian F. Lai

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A handful of propagation textbooks that discuss radio frequency (RF) propagation models merely list out the models and perhaps discuss them rather briefly; this may well be frustrating for the potential first time modeller who's got no idea on how these models could have been derived. This paper fundamentally provides an overture in modelling the radio channel. Explicitly, for the modelling practice discussed here, signal strength field measurements had to be conducted beforehand (this was done at 469 MHz); to be precise, this paper primarily concerns empirically/statistically modelling the radio channel, and thus provides results obtained from empirically modelling the environments in question. This paper, on the whole, proposes three propagation models, corresponding to three experimented environments. Perceptibly, the models have been derived by way of making the most use of statistical measures. Generally speaking, the first two models were derived via simple linear regression analysis, whereas the third have been originated using multiple regression analysis (with five various predictors). Additionally, as implied by the title of this paper, both indoor and outdoor environments have been experimented; however, (somewhat) two of the environments are neither entirely indoor nor entirely outdoor. The other environment, however, is completely indoor.

Keywords: RF propagation, radio channel modelling, statistical methods.

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Authors: Marina Velikova, Hennie Daniels, Ad Feelders

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In many data mining applications, it is a priori known that the target function should satisfy certain constraints imposed by, for example, economic theory or a human-decision maker. In this paper we consider partially monotone prediction problems, where the target variable depends monotonically on some of the input variables but not on all. We propose a novel method to construct prediction models, where monotone dependences with respect to some of the input variables are preserved by virtue of construction. Our method belongs to the class of mixture models. The basic idea is to convolute monotone neural networks with weight (kernel) functions to make predictions. By using simulation and real case studies, we demonstrate the application of our method. To obtain sound assessment for the performance of our approach, we use standard neural networks with weight decay and partially monotone linear models as benchmark methods for comparison. The results show that our approach outperforms partially monotone linear models in terms of accuracy. Furthermore, the incorporation of partial monotonicity constraints not only leads to models that are in accordance with the decision maker's expertise, but also reduces considerably the model variance in comparison to standard neural networks with weight decay.

Keywords: mixture models, monotone neural networks, partially monotone models, partially monotone problems.

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Authors: Naushad Mamode Khan, Cheika Jahangeer, Maleika Heenaye-Mamode Khan

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Exclusive breastfeeding is the feeding of a baby on no other milk apart from breast milk. Exclusive breastfeeding during the first 6 months of life is very important as it supports optimal growth and development during infancy and reduces the risk of obliterating diseases and problems. Moreover, it helps to reduce the incidence and/or severity of diarrhea, lower respiratory infection and urinary tract infection. In this paper, we make a survey of the factors that influence exclusive breastfeeding and use two dispersed statistical models to analyze data. The models are the Generalized Poisson regression model and the Com-Poisson regression models.

Keywords: Exclusive breastfeeding, regression model, generalized poisson, com-poisson.

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Authors: Y. N. Phang, E. F. Loh

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The zero truncated model is usually used in modeling count data without zero. It is the opposite of zero inflated model. Zero truncated Poisson and zero truncated negative binomial models are discussed and used by some researchers in analyzing the abundance of rare species and hospital stay. Zero truncated models are used as the base in developing hurdle models. In this study, we developed a new model, the zero truncated strict arcsine model, which can be used as an alternative model in modeling count data without zero and with extra variation. Two simulated and one real life data sets are used and fitted into this developed model. The results show that the model provides a good fit to the data. Maximum likelihood estimation method is used in estimating the parameters.

Keywords: Hurdle models, maximum likelihood estimation method, positive count data.

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