Search results for: Logistic regression analysis
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8989

Search results for: Logistic regression analysis

8929 Optimized Calculation of Hourly Price Forward Curve (HPFC)

Authors: Ahmed Abdolkhalig

Abstract:

This paper examines many mathematical methods for molding the hourly price forward curve (HPFC); the model will be constructed by numerous regression methods, like polynomial regression, radial basic function neural networks & a furrier series. Examination the models goodness of fit will be done by means of statistical & graphical tools. The criteria for choosing the model will depend on minimize the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), using the correlation analysis approach for the regression analysis the optimal model will be distinct, which are robust against model misspecification. Learning & supervision technique employed to determine the form of the optimal parameters corresponding to each measure of overall loss. By using all the numerical methods that mentioned previously; the explicit expressions for the optimal model derived and the optimal designs will be implemented.

Keywords: Forward curve, furrier series, regression, radial basic function neural networks.

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8928 Principal Component Regression in Noninvasive Pineapple Soluble Solids Content Assessment Based On Shortwave Near Infrared Spectrum

Authors: K. S. Chia, H. Abdul Rahim, R. Abdul Rahim

Abstract:

The Principal component regression (PCR) is a combination of principal component analysis (PCA) and multiple linear regression (MLR). The objective of this paper is to revise the use of PCR in shortwave near infrared (SWNIR) (750-1000nm) spectral analysis. The idea of PCR was explained mathematically and implemented in the non-destructive assessment of the soluble solid content (SSC) of pineapple based on SWNIR spectral data. PCR achieved satisfactory results in this application with root mean squared error of calibration (RMSEC) of 0.7611 Brix°, coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.5865 and root mean squared error of crossvalidation (RMSECV) of 0.8323 Brix° with principal components (PCs) of 14.

Keywords: Pineapple, Shortwave near infrared, Principal component regression, Non-invasive measurement; Soluble solids content

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8927 Capacity Flexibility within Production

Authors: Johannes Nywlt, Julian Becker, Sebastian Bertsch

Abstract:

Due to high dynamics in current markets the expectations regarding logistics increase steadily. However, the complexity and variety of products and production make it difficult to understand the interdependencies between logistical objectives and their determining factors. Therefore specific models are needed to meet this challenge. The Logistic Operating Curves Theory is such a model. With its aid the basic correlations between the logistic objectives can be described. Within this model the capacity flexibility represents an important parameter. However, a proper mathematical description for this parameter is still missing. Within this paper such a description will be developed in order to make the Logistic Operating Curves Theory more accurate.

Keywords: Capacity flexibility, Production controlling, Production logistics, Production management.

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8926 Customer Churn Prediction Using Four Machine Learning Algorithms Integrating Feature Selection and Normalization in the Telecom Sector

Authors: Alanoud Moraya Aldalan, Abdulaziz Almaleh

Abstract:

A crucial part of maintaining a customer-oriented business in the telecommunications industry is understanding the reasons and factors that lead to customer churn. Competition between telecom companies has greatly increased in recent years, which has made it more important to understand customers’ needs in this strong market. For those who are looking to turn over their service providers, understanding their needs is especially important. Predictive churn is now a mandatory requirement for retaining customers in the telecommunications industry. Machine learning can be used to accomplish this. Churn Prediction has become a very important topic in terms of machine learning classification in the telecommunications industry. Understanding the factors of customer churn and how they behave is very important to building an effective churn prediction model. This paper aims to predict churn and identify factors of customers’ churn based on their past service usage history. Aiming at this objective, the study makes use of feature selection, normalization, and feature engineering. Then, this study compared the performance of four different machine learning algorithms on the Orange dataset: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Decision Tree, and Gradient Boosting. Evaluation of the performance was conducted by using the F1 score and ROC-AUC. Comparing the results of this study with existing models has proven to produce better results. The results showed the Gradients Boosting with feature selection technique outperformed in this study by achieving a 99% F1-score and 99% AUC, and all other experiments achieved good results as well.

Keywords: Machine Learning, Gradient Boosting, Logistic Regression, Churn, Random Forest, Decision Tree, ROC, AUC, F1-score.

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8925 Clustering Protein Sequences with Tailored General Regression Model Technique

Authors: G. Lavanya Devi, Allam Appa Rao, A. Damodaram, GR Sridhar, G. Jaya Suma

Abstract:

Cluster analysis divides data into groups that are meaningful, useful, or both. Analysis of biological data is creating a new generation of epidemiologic, prognostic, diagnostic and treatment modalities. Clustering of protein sequences is one of the current research topics in the field of computer science. Linear relation is valuable in rule discovery for a given data, such as if value X goes up 1, value Y will go down 3", etc. The classical linear regression models the linear relation of two sequences perfectly. However, if we need to cluster a large repository of protein sequences into groups where sequences have strong linear relationship with each other, it is prohibitively expensive to compare sequences one by one. In this paper, we propose a new technique named General Regression Model Technique Clustering Algorithm (GRMTCA) to benignly handle the problem of linear sequences clustering. GRMT gives a measure, GR*, to tell the degree of linearity of multiple sequences without having to compare each pair of them.

Keywords: Clustering, General Regression Model, Protein Sequences, Similarity Measure.

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8924 Formalizing a Procedure for Generating Uncertain Resource Availability Assumptions Based On Real Time Logistic Data Capturing with Auto-ID Systems for Reactive Scheduling

Authors: Lars Laußat, Manfred Helmus, Kamil Szczesny, Markus König

Abstract:

As one result of the project “Reactive Construction Project Scheduling using Real Time Construction Logistic Data and Simulation”, a procedure for using data about uncertain resource availability assumptions in reactive scheduling processes has been developed. Prediction data about resource availability is generated in a formalized way using real-time monitoring data e.g. from auto-ID systems on the construction site and in the supply chains. The paper focusses on the formalization of the procedure for monitoring construction logistic processes, for the detection of disturbance and for generating of new and uncertain scheduling assumptions for the reactive resource constrained simulation procedure that is and will be further described in other papers.

Keywords: Auto-ID, Construction Logistic, Fuzzy, Monitoring, RFID, Scheduling.

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8923 Health Monitoring of Power Transformers by Dissolved Gas Analysis using Regression Method and Study the Effect of Filtration on Oil

Authors: Anjali Chatterjee, Nirmal Kumar Roy

Abstract:

Economically transformers constitute one of the largest investments in a Power system. For this reason, transformer condition assessment and management is a high priority task. If a transformer fails, it would have a significant negative impact on revenue and service reliability. Monitoring the state of health of power transformers has traditionally been carried out using laboratory Dissolved Gas Analysis (DGA) tests performed at periodic intervals on the oil sample, collected from the transformers. DGA of transformer oil is the single best indicator of a transformer-s overall condition and is a universal practice today, which started somewhere in the 1960s. Failure can occur in a transformer due to different reasons. Some failures can be limited or prevented by maintenance. Oil filtration is one of the methods to remove the dissolve gases and prevent the deterioration of the oil. In this paper we analysis the DGA data by regression method and predict the gas concentration in the oil in the future. We bring about a comparative study of different traditional methods of regression and the errors generated out of their predictions. With the help of these data we can deduce the health of the transformer by finding the type of fault if it has occurred or will occur in future. Additional in this paper effect of filtration on the transformer health is highlight by calculating the probability of failure of a transformer with and without oil filtrating.

Keywords: Power Transformers, Dissolve gas Analysis, Regression method, Filtration, oil.

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8922 Regression Analysis of Travel Indicators and Public Transport Usage in Urban Areas

Authors: M. Moeinaddini, Z. Asadi-Shekari, M. Zaly Shah, A. Hamzah

Abstract:

Currently, planners try to have more green travel options to decrease economic, social and environmental problems. Therefore, this study tries to find significant urban travel factors to be used to increase the usage of alternative urban travel modes. This paper attempts to identify the relationship between prominent urban mobility indicators and daily trips by public transport in 30 cities from various parts of the world. Different travel modes, infrastructures and cost indicators were evaluated in this research as mobility indicators. The results of multi-linear regression analysis indicate that there is a significant relationship between mobility indicators and the daily usage of public transport.

Keywords: Green travel modes, urban travel indicators, daily trips by public transport, multi-linear regression analysis.

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8921 Coverage Probability Analysis of WiMAX Network under Additive White Gaussian Noise and Predicted Empirical Path Loss Model

Authors: Chaudhuri Manoj Kumar Swain, Susmita Das

Abstract:

This paper explores a detailed procedure of predicting a path loss (PL) model and its application in estimating the coverage probability in a WiMAX network. For this a hybrid approach is followed in predicting an empirical PL model of a 2.65 GHz WiMAX network deployed in a suburban environment. Data collection, statistical analysis, and regression analysis are the phases of operations incorporated in this approach and the importance of each of these phases has been discussed properly. The procedure of collecting data such as received signal strength indicator (RSSI) through experimental set up is demonstrated. From the collected data set, empirical PL and RSSI models are predicted with regression technique. Furthermore, with the aid of the predicted PL model, essential parameters such as PL exponent as well as the coverage probability of the network are evaluated. This research work may assist in the process of deployment and optimisation of any cellular network significantly.

Keywords: WiMAX, RSSI, path loss, coverage probability, regression analysis.

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8920 Cost Sensitive Analysis of Production Logistics Measures A Decision Making Support System for Evaluating Measures in the Production

Authors: Michael Grigutsch, Peter Nyhuis

Abstract:

Due to the volatile global economy, enterprises are increasingly focusing on logistics. By investing in suitable measures a company can increase their logistic performance and assert themselves over the competition. However, enterprises are also faced with the challenge of investing available capital for maximum profits. In order to be able to create an informed and quantifiably comprehensible basis for a decision, enterprises need a suitable model for logistically and monetarily evaluating measures in production. Previously, within the frame of Collaborate Research Centre 489 (SFB 489) at the Institute for Production Systems and Logistics, (IFA) a Logistic Information System was developed specifically for providing enterprises in the forging industry with support when making decisions. Based on this research, a new initiative referred to as ‘Transfer Project T7’, aims to develop a universal approach for logistically and monetarily evaluating production measures. This paper focuses on the structural measure echelon storage and their impact on the entire production system.

Keywords: Logistic Operating Curves, Transfer Functions, Production Logistics, Storages Echelon.

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8919 Selection of Designs in Ordinal Regression Models under Linear Predictor Misspecification

Authors: Ishapathik Das

Abstract:

The purpose of this article is to find a method of comparing designs for ordinal regression models using quantile dispersion graphs in the presence of linear predictor misspecification. The true relationship between response variable and the corresponding control variables are usually unknown. Experimenter assumes certain form of the linear predictor of the ordinal regression models. The assumed form of the linear predictor may not be correct always. Thus, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) of the unknown parameters of the model may be biased due to misspecification of the linear predictor. In this article, the uncertainty in the linear predictor is represented by an unknown function. An algorithm is provided to estimate the unknown function at the design points where observations are available. The unknown function is estimated at all points in the design region using multivariate parametric kriging. The comparison of the designs are based on a scalar valued function of the mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) matrix, which incorporates both variance and bias of the prediction caused by the misspecification in the linear predictor. The designs are compared using quantile dispersion graphs approach. The graphs also visually depict the robustness of the designs on the changes in the parameter values. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the proposed methodology.

Keywords: Model misspecification, multivariate kriging, multivariate logistic link, ordinal response models, quantile dispersion graphs.

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8918 Regression Test Selection Technique for Multi-Programming Language

Authors: Walid S. Abd El-hamid, Sherif S. El-Etriby, Mohiy M. Hadhoud

Abstract:

Regression testing is a maintenance activity applied to modified software to provide confidence that the changed parts are correct and that the unchanged parts have not been adversely affected by the modifications. Regression test selection techniques reduce the cost of regression testing, by selecting a subset of an existing test suite to use in retesting modified programs. This paper presents the first general regression-test-selection technique, which based on code and allows selecting test cases for any programs written in any programming language. Then it handles incomplete program. We also describe RTSDiff, a regression-test-selection system that implements the proposed technique. The results of the empirical studied that performed in four programming languages java, C#, Cµ and Visual basic show that the efficiency and effective in reducing the size of test suit.

Keywords: Regression testing, testing, test selection, softwareevolution, software maintenance.

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8917 Burning Rate Response of Solid Fuels in Laminar Boundary Layer

Authors: A. M. Tahsini

Abstract:

Solid fuel transient burning behavior under oxidizer gas flow is numerically investigated. It is done using analysis of the regression rate responses to the imposed sudden and oscillatory variation at inflow properties. The conjugate problem is considered by simultaneous solution of flow and solid phase governing equations to compute the fuel regression rate. The advection upstream splitting method is used as flow computational scheme in finite volume method. The ignition phase is completely simulated to obtain the exact initial condition for response analysis. The results show that the transient burning effects which lead to the combustion instabilities and intermittent extinctions could be observed in solid fuels as the solid propellants.

Keywords: Extinction, Oscillation, Regression rate, Response, Transient burning.

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8916 Performance Analysis of Proprietary and Non-Proprietary Tools for Regression Testing Using Genetic Algorithm

Authors: K. Hema Shankari, R. Thirumalaiselvi, N. V. Balasubramanian

Abstract:

The present paper addresses to the research in the area of regression testing with emphasis on automated tools as well as prioritization of test cases. The uniqueness of regression testing and its cyclic nature is pointed out. The difference in approach between industry, with business model as basis, and academia, with focus on data mining, is highlighted. Test Metrics are discussed as a prelude to our formula for prioritization; a case study is further discussed to illustrate this methodology. An industrial case study is also described in the paper, where the number of test cases is so large that they have to be grouped as Test Suites. In such situations, a genetic algorithm proposed by us can be used to reconfigure these Test Suites in each cycle of regression testing. The comparison is made between a proprietary tool and an open source tool using the above-mentioned metrics. Our approach is clarified through several tables.

Keywords: APFD metric, genetic algorithm, regression testing, RFT tool, test case prioritization, selenium tool.

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8915 A Novel Method for the Characterization of Synchronization and Coupling in Multichannel EEG and ECoG

Authors: Manfred Hartmann, Andreas Graef, Hannes Perko, Christoph Baumgartner, Tilmann Kluge

Abstract:

In this paper we introduce a novel method for the characterization of synchronziation and coupling effects in multivariate time series that can be used for the analysis of EEG or ECoG signals recorded during epileptic seizures. The method allows to visualize the spatio-temporal evolution of synchronization and coupling effects that are characteristic for epileptic seizures. Similar to other methods proposed for this purpose our method is based on a regression analysis. However, a more general definition of the regression together with an effective channel selection procedure allows to use the method even for time series that are highly correlated, which is commonly the case in EEG/ECoG recordings with large numbers of electrodes. The method was experimentally tested on ECoG recordings of epileptic seizures from patients with temporal lobe epilepsies. A comparision with the results from a independent visual inspection by clinical experts showed an excellent agreement with the patterns obtained with the proposed method.

Keywords: EEG, epilepsy, regression analysis, seizurepropagation.

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8914 Computational Aspects of Regression Analysis of Interval Data

Authors: Michal Cerny

Abstract:

We consider linear regression models where both input data (the values of independent variables) and output data (the observations of the dependent variable) are interval-censored. We introduce a possibilistic generalization of the least squares estimator, so called OLS-set for the interval model. This set captures the impact of the loss of information on the OLS estimator caused by interval censoring and provides a tool for quantification of this effect. We study complexity-theoretic properties of the OLS-set. We also deal with restricted versions of the general interval linear regression model, in particular the crisp input – interval output model. We give an argument that natural descriptions of the OLS-set in the crisp input – interval output cannot be computed in polynomial time. Then we derive easily computable approximations for the OLS-set which can be used instead of the exact description. We illustrate the approach by an example.

Keywords: Linear regression, interval-censored data, computational complexity.

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8913 Stock Market Prediction by Regression Model with Social Moods

Authors: Masahiro Ohmura, Koh Kakusho, Takeshi Okadome

Abstract:

This paper presents a regression model with autocorrelated errors in which the inputs are social moods obtained by analyzing the adjectives in Twitter posts using a document topic model, where document topics are extracted using LDA. The regression model predicts Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) more precisely than autoregressive moving-average models.

Keywords: Regression model, social mood, stock market prediction, Twitter.

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8912 Investigating Determinants of Medical User Expectations from Hospital Information System

Authors: G. Gürsel, K. H. Gülkesen, N. Zayim, A. Arifoğlu, O. Saka

Abstract:

User satisfaction is one of the most used success indicators in the research of information system (IS). Literature shows user expectations have great influence on user satisfaction. Both expectation and satisfaction of users are important for Hospital Information Systems (HIS). Education, IS experience, age, attitude towards change, business title, sex and working unit of the hospital, are examined as the potential determinant of the medical users’ expectations. Data about medical user expectations are collected by the “Expectation Questionnaire” developed for this study. Expectation data are used for calculating the Expectation Meeting Ratio (EMR) with the evaluation framework also developed for this study. The internal consistencies of the answers to the questionnaire are measured by Cronbach´s Alpha coefficient. The multivariate analysis of medical user’s EMRs of HIS is performed by forward stepwise binary logistic regression analysis. Education and business title is appeared to be the determinants of expectations from HIS.

Keywords: Evaluation, Fuzzy Logic, Hospital Information System, User Expectation.

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8911 A Fuzzy Linear Regression Model Based on Dissemblance Index

Authors: Shih-Pin Chen, Shih-Syuan You

Abstract:

Fuzzy regression models are useful for investigating the relationship between explanatory variables and responses in fuzzy environments. To overcome the deficiencies of previous models and increase the explanatory power of fuzzy data, the graded mean integration (GMI) representation is applied to determine representative crisp regression coefficients. A fuzzy regression model is constructed based on the modified dissemblance index (MDI), which can precisely measure the actual total error. Compared with previous studies based on the proposed MDI and distance criterion, the results from commonly used test examples show that the proposed fuzzy linear regression model has higher explanatory power and forecasting accuracy.

Keywords: Dissemblance index, fuzzy linear regression, graded mean integration, mathematical programming.

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8910 Implementation of Response Surface Methodology using in Small Brown Rice Peeling Machine: Part I

Authors: S. Bangphan, P. Bangphan, T.Boonkang

Abstract:

Implementation of response surface methodology (RSM) was employed to study the effects of two factor (rubber clearance and round per minute) in brown rice peeling machine of The optimal BROKENS yield (19.02, average of three repeats),.The optimized composition derived from RSM regression was analyzed using Regression analysis and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). At a significant level α = 0.05, the values of Regression coefficient, R 2 (adj)were 97.35 % and standard deviation were 1.09513. The independent variables are initial rubber clearance, and round per minute parameters namely. The investigating responses are final rubber clearance, and round per minute (RPM). The restriction of the optimization is the designated.

Keywords: Brown rice, Response surface methodology(RSM), Rubber clearance, Round per minute (RPM), Peeling machine.

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8909 A Study on Inference from Distance Variables in Hedonic Regression

Authors: Yan Wang, Yasushi Asami, Yukio Sadahiro

Abstract:

In urban area, several landmarks may affect housing price and rents, and hedonic analysis should employ distance variables corresponding to each landmarks. Unfortunately, the effects of distances to landmarks on housing prices are generally not consistent with the true price. These distance variables may cause magnitude error in regression, pointing a problem of spatial multicollinearity. In this paper, we provided some approaches for getting the samples with less bias and method on locating the specific sampling area to avoid the multicollinerity problem in two specific landmarks case.

Keywords: Landmarks, hedonic regression, distance variables, collinearity, multicollinerity.

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8908 Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship and Insilco Docking of Substituted 1,3,4-Oxadiazole Derivatives as Potential Glucosamine-6-Phosphate Synthase Inhibitors

Authors: Suman Bala, Sunil Kamboj, Vipin Saini

Abstract:

Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship (QSAR) analysis has been developed to relate antifungal activity of novel substituted 1,3,4-oxadiazole against Candida albicans and Aspergillus niger using computer assisted multiple regression analysis. The study has shown the better relationship between antifungal activities with respect to various descriptors established by multiple regression analysis. The analysis has shown statistically significant correlation with R2 values 0.932 and 0.782 against Candida albicans and Aspergillus niger respectively. These derivatives were further subjected to molecular docking studies to investigate the interactions between the target compounds and amino acid residues present in the active site of glucosamine-6-phosphate synthase. All the synthesized compounds have better docking score as compared to standard fluconazole. Our results could be used for the further design as well as development of optimal and potential antifungal agents.

Keywords: 1, 3, 4-Oxadiazole, QSAR, Multiple linear regression, Docking, Glucosamine-6-Phosphate Synthase.

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8907 Mathematical Modeling to Predict Surface Roughness in CNC Milling

Authors: Ab. Rashid M.F.F., Gan S.Y., Muhammad N.Y.

Abstract:

Surface roughness (Ra) is one of the most important requirements in machining process. In order to obtain better surface roughness, the proper setting of cutting parameters is crucial before the process take place. This research presents the development of mathematical model for surface roughness prediction before milling process in order to evaluate the fitness of machining parameters; spindle speed, feed rate and depth of cut. 84 samples were run in this study by using FANUC CNC Milling α-Τ14ιE. Those samples were randomly divided into two data sets- the training sets (m=60) and testing sets(m=24). ANOVA analysis showed that at least one of the population regression coefficients was not zero. Multiple Regression Method was used to determine the correlation between a criterion variable and a combination of predictor variables. It was established that the surface roughness is most influenced by the feed rate. By using Multiple Regression Method equation, the average percentage deviation of the testing set was 9.8% and 9.7% for training data set. This showed that the statistical model could predict the surface roughness with about 90.2% accuracy of the testing data set and 90.3% accuracy of the training data set.

Keywords: Surface roughness, regression analysis.

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8906 A General Regression Test Selection Technique

Authors: Walid S. Abd El-hamid, Sherif S. El-etriby, Mohiy M. Hadhoud

Abstract:

This paper presents a new methodology to select test cases from regression test suites. The selection strategy is based on analyzing the dynamic behavior of the applications that written in any programming language. Methods based on dynamic analysis are more safe and efficient. We design a technique that combine the code based technique and model based technique, to allow comparing the object oriented of an application that written in any programming language. We have developed a prototype tool that detect changes and select test cases from test suite.

Keywords: Regression testing, Model based testing, Dynamicbehavior.

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8905 Estimation of Critical Period for Weed Control in Corn in Iran

Authors: Sohrab Mahmoodi, Ali Rahimi

Abstract:

The critical period for weed control (CPWC) is the period in the crop growth cycle during which weeds must be controlled to prevent unacceptable yield losses. Field studies were conducted in 2005 and 2006 in the University of Birjand at the south east of Iran to determine CPWC of corn using a randomized complete block design with 14 treatments and four replications. The treatments consisted of two different periods of weed interference, a critical weed-free period and a critical time of weed removal, were imposed at V3, V6, V9, V12, V15, and R1 (based on phonological stages of corn development) with a weedy check and a weed-free check. The CPWC was determined with the use of 2.5, 5, 10, 15 and 20% acceptable yield loss levels by non-linear Regression method and fitting Logistic and Gompertz nonlinear equations to relative yield data. The CPWC of corn was from 5- to 15-leaf stage (19-55 DAE) to prevent yield losses of 5%. This period to prevent yield losses of 2.5, 10 and 20% was 4- to 17-leaf stage (14-59 DAE), 6- to 12-leaf stage (25-47 DAE) and 8- to 9-leaf stage (31-36 DAE) respectively. The height and leaf area index of corn were significantly decreased by weed competition in both weed free and weed infested treatments (P<0.01). Results also showed that there was a significant positive correlation between yield and LAI of corn at silk stage when competing with weeds (r= 0.97).

Keywords: Corn, Critical period, Gompertz, Logistic, Weed control.

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8904 A Study on a Research and Development Cost-Estimation Model in Korea

Authors: Babakina Alexandra, Yong Soo Kim

Abstract:

In this study, we analyzed the factors that affect research funds using linear regression analysis to increase the effectiveness of investments in national research projects. We collected 7,916 items of data on research projects that were in the process of being finished or were completed between 2010 and 2011. Data pre-processing and visualization were performed to derive statistically significant results. We identified factors that affected funding using analysis of fit distributions and estimated increasing or decreasing tendencies based on these factors.

Keywords: R&D funding, Cost estimation, Linear regression, Preliminary feasibility study.

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8903 Segmentation of Piecewise Polynomial Regression Model by Using Reversible Jump MCMC Algorithm

Authors: Suparman

Abstract:

Piecewise polynomial regression model is very flexible model for modeling the data. If the piecewise polynomial regression model is matched against the data, its parameters are not generally known. This paper studies the parameter estimation problem of piecewise polynomial regression model. The method which is used to estimate the parameters of the piecewise polynomial regression model is Bayesian method. Unfortunately, the Bayes estimator cannot be found analytically. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm is proposed to solve this problem. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm generates the Markov chain that converges to the limit distribution of the posterior distribution of piecewise polynomial regression model parameter. The resulting Markov chain is used to calculate the Bayes estimator for the parameters of piecewise polynomial regression model.

Keywords: Piecewise, Bayesian, reversible jump MCMC, segmentation.

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8902 Identifying Factors Contributing to the Spread of Lyme Disease: A Regression Analysis of Virginia’s Data

Authors: Fatemeh Valizadeh Gamchi, Edward L. Boone

Abstract:

This research focuses on Lyme disease, a widespread infectious condition in the United States caused by the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto. It is critical to identify environmental and economic elements that are contributing to the spread of the disease. This study examined data from Virginia to identify a subset of explanatory variables significant for Lyme disease case numbers. To identify relevant variables and avoid overfitting, linear poisson, and regularization regression methods such as ridge, lasso, and elastic net penalty were employed. Cross-validation was performed to acquire tuning parameters. The methods proposed can automatically identify relevant disease count covariates. The efficacy of the techniques was assessed using four criteria on three simulated datasets. Finally, using the Virginia Department of Health’s Lyme disease dataset, the study successfully identified key factors, and the results were consistent with previous studies.

Keywords: Lyme disease, Poisson generalized linear model, Ridge regression, Lasso Regression, elastic net regression.

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8901 Interrelationships between Physicochemical Water Pollution Indicators: A Case Study of River Pandu

Authors: Sunita Verma , Divya Tiwari, Ajay Verma

Abstract:

Water samples were collected from river Pandu at six stations where human and animal activities were high. Composite samples were analyzed for dissolved oxygen (DO), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD) , pH values during dry and wet seasons as well as the harmattan period. The total data points were used to establish relationships between the parameters and data were also subjected to statistical analysis and expressed as mean ± standard error of mean (SEM) at a level of significance of p<0.05. Regression analysis was carried out to establish relationships if any between studied parameters and relationships in form of scatter plots were obtained between DO/BOD, COD/DO, BOD/COD, COD/pH, BOD/pH and DO/pH. The high to moderate correlation coefficient observed, R2 ranged from 0.68 to 0.15 between these parameters.

Keywords: BOD, DO, COD, pH, Regression analysis.

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8900 Potential of Tourism Logistic Service Business in the Border Areas of Chong Anma, Chong Sa-Ngam, and Chong Jom Checkpoints in Thailand to Increase Competitive Efficiency among the ASEAN Community

Authors: Pariwat Somnuek

Abstract:

This study focused on tourism logistic services in the border areas of Thailand by an analysis and comparison of the opinions of tourists, villagers, and entrepreneurs of these services. Sample representatives of this study were a total of 600 villagers and 15 entrepreneurs in the three border areas consisting of Chong Anma, Chong Sa-Ngam, and Chong Jom checkpoints. For methodology, survey questionnaires, situation analysis, TOWS matrix, and focus group discussions were used for data collection, as well as descriptive analysis and statistics such as arithmetic means and standard deviations, were employed for data analysis. The findings revealed that business potential was at the medium level and entrepreneurs were satisfied with their turnovers. However, perspectives of transportation and tourism services provided for tourists need to be immediately improved. Recommendations for the potential development included promotion of border tourism destinations and foreign investments into accommodation, restaurants, and transport, as well as the establishment of business networks between Thailand and Cambodia, along with the introduction of new tourism destinations by co-operation between entrepreneurs in both countries. These initiatives may lead to increased visitors, collaboration of security offices, and an improved image of tourism security.

Keywords: Business potential, potential development, tourism logistics, services.

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