Search results for: Forecasting techniques

Authors: Salvatore Marra, Francesco C. Morabito

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In this paper we present an efficient approach for the prediction of two sunspot-related time series, namely the Yearly Sunspot Number and the IR5 Index, that are commonly used for monitoring solar activity. The method is based on exploiting partially recurrent Elman networks and it can be divided into three main steps: the first one consists in a “de-rectification" of the time series under study in order to obtain a new time series whose appearance, similar to a sum of sinusoids, can be modelled by our neural networks much better than the original dataset. After that, we normalize the derectified data so that they have zero mean and unity standard deviation and, finally, train an Elman network with only one input, a recurrent hidden layer and one output using a back-propagation algorithm with variable learning rate and momentum. The achieved results have shown the efficiency of this approach that, although very simple, can perform better than most of the existing solar activity forecasting methods.

Keywords: Elman neural networks, sunspot, solar activity, time series prediction.

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Authors: Sunusi N., Kresna A. J., Islamiyati A., Raupong

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Hazard rate estimation is one of the important topics in forecasting earthquake occurrence. Forecasting earthquake occurrence is a part of the statistical seismology where the main subject is the point process. Generally, earthquake hazard rate is estimated based on the point process likelihood equation called the Hazard Rate Likelihood of Point Process (HRLPP). In this research, we have developed estimation method, that is hazard rate single decrement HRSD. This method was adapted from estimation method in actuarial studies. Here, one individual associated with an earthquake with inter event time is exponentially distributed. The information of epicenter and time of earthquake occurrence are used to estimate hazard rate. At the end, a case study of earthquake hazard rate will be given. Furthermore, we compare the hazard rate between HRLPP and HRSD method.

Keywords: Earthquake forecast, Hazard Rate, Likelihood point process, Point process.

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Authors: Jimeng Shi, Mahek Jain, Giri Narasimhan

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Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is used to predict the target variables at a future time point based on the learning from previous time points. To keep the problem tractable, learning methods use data from a fixed length window in the past as an explicit input. In this paper, we study how the performance of predictive models change as a function of different look-back window sizes and different amounts of time to predict into the future. We also consider the performance of the recent attention-based transformer models, which had good success in the image processing and natural language processing domains. In all, we compare four different deep learning methods (Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Long Short-term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), and Transformer) along with a baseline method. The dataset (hourly) we used is the Beijing Air Quality Dataset from the website of University of California, Irvine (UCI), which includes a multivariate time series of many factors measured on an hourly basis for a period of 5 years (2010-14). For each model, we also report on the relationship between the performance and the look-back window sizes and the number of predicted time points into the future. Our experiments suggest that Transformer models have the best performance with the lowest Mean   Absolute Errors (MAE = 14.599, 23.273) and Root Mean Square Errors (RSME = 23.573, 38.131) for most of our single-step and multi-steps predictions. The best size for the look-back window to predict 1 hour into the future appears to be one day, while 2 or 4 days perform the best to predict 3 hours into the future.

Keywords: Air quality prediction, deep learning algorithms, time series forecasting, look-back window.

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Authors: N. Olarte L, A. Rubiano F, A. Mejía F.

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This comparison of valuation techniques for bone age assessment is a work carried out by the Telemedicine Research Group of the Military University - TIGUM, as a preliminary to the Design and development a treatment system of hand and wrist radiological images for children aged 0-6 years to bone age assessment . In this paper the techniques mentioned for decades have been the most widely used and the statistically significant. Althought, initially with the current project, it wants to work with children who have limit age, this comparison and evaluation techniques work will help in the future to expand the study subject in the system to bone age assessment, implementing more techniques, tools and deeper analysis to accomplish this purpose.

Keywords: Atlas, Bone Age Assessment, Hand and Wrist Radiograph, Image Processing

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Authors: P.Saravanan, Narayanan .C.K., P.V.S.S Prakash, Prabhakara Rao .G.V

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Video Mosaicing is the stitching of selected frames of a video by estimating the camera motion between the frames and thereby registering successive frames of the video to arrive at the mosaic. Different techniques have been proposed in the literature for video mosaicing. Despite of the large number of papers dealing with techniques to generate mosaic, only a few authors have investigated conditions under which these techniques generate good estimate of motion parameters. In this paper, these techniques are studied under different videos, and the reasons for failures are found. We propose algorithms with incorporation of outlier removal algorithms for better estimation of motion parameters.

Keywords: Motion parameters, Outlier removal algorithms, Registering , and Video Mosaicing.

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Authors: Darren Zou

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Forecasting the stock market is a very challenging task. Various economic indicators such as GDP, exchange rates, interest rates, and unemployment have a substantial impact on the stock market. Time series models are the traditional methods used to predict stock market changes. In this paper, a machine learning method, Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) is used in predicting stock market indexes based on multiple economic indicators. BART can be used to model heterogeneous treatment effects, and thereby works well when models are misspecified. It also has the capability to handle non-linear main effects and multi-way interactions without much input from financial analysts. In this research, BART is proposed to provide a reliable prediction on day-to-day stock market activities. By comparing the analysis results from BART and with time series method, BART can perform well and has better prediction capability than the traditional methods.

Keywords: Bayesian, Forecast, Stock, BART.

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Authors: Dinesh Kumar, C.S. Rai, Shakti Kumar

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Face Recognition has always been a fascinating research area. It has drawn the attention of many researchers because of its various potential applications such as security systems, entertainment, criminal identification etc. Many supervised and unsupervised learning techniques have been reported so far. Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Self Organizing Maps (SOM) and Independent Component Analysis (ICA) are the three techniques among many others as proposed by different researchers for Face Recognition, known as the unsupervised techniques. This paper proposes integration of the two techniques, SOM and PCA, for dimensionality reduction and feature selection. Simulation results show that, though, the individual techniques SOM and PCA itself give excellent performance but the combination of these two can also be utilized for face recognition. Experimental results also indicate that for the given face database and the classifier used, SOM performs better as compared to other unsupervised learning techniques. A comparison of two proposed methodologies of SOM, Local and Global processing, shows the superiority of the later but at the cost of more computational time.

Keywords: Face Recognition, Principal Component Analysis, Self Organizing Maps, Independent Component Analysis

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Authors: Khalid Alnafjan, Tazar Hussain, Hanif Ullah, Zia ul haq Paracha

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Software and applications are subjected to serious and damaging security threats, these threats are increasing as a result of increased number of potential vulnerabilities. Security testing is an indispensable process to validate software security requirements and to identify security related vulnerabilities. In this paper we analyze and compare different available vulnerabilities testing techniques based on a pre defined criteria using analytical hierarchy process (AHP). We have selected five testing techniques which includes Source code analysis, Fault code injection, Robustness, Stress and Penetration testing techniques. These testing techniques have been evaluated against five criteria which include cost, thoroughness, Ease of use, effectiveness and efficiency. The outcome of the study is helpful for researchers, testers and developers to understand effectiveness of each technique in its respective domain. Also the study helps to compare the inner working of testing techniques against a selected criterion to achieve optimum testing results.

Keywords: Software Security, Security Testing, Testing techniques, vulnerability, AHP.

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Authors: Oluwaseun K. Oyebode, Josiah A. Adeyemo

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Hydrological modelling plays a crucial role in the planning and management of water resources, most especially in water stressed regions where the need to effectively manage the available water resources is of critical importance. However, due to the complex, nonlinear and dynamic behaviour of hydro-climatic interactions, achieving reliable modelling of water resource systems and accurate projection of hydrological parameters are extremely challenging. Although a significant number of modelling techniques (process-based and data-driven) have been developed and adopted in that regard, the field of hydrological modelling is still considered as one that has sluggishly progressed over the past decades. This is majorly as a result of the identification of some degree of uncertainty in the methodologies and results of techniques adopted. In recent times, evolutionary computation (EC) techniques have been developed and introduced in response to the search for efficient and reliable means of providing accurate solutions to hydrological related problems. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the underlying principles, methodological needs and applications of a promising evolutionary computation modelling technique – genetic programming (GP). It examines the specific characteristics of the technique which makes it suitable to solving hydrological modelling problems. It discusses the opportunities inherent in the application of GP in water related-studies such as rainfall estimation, rainfall-runoff modelling, streamflow forecasting, sediment transport modelling, water quality modelling and groundwater modelling among others. Furthermore, the means by which such opportunities could be harnessed in the near future are discussed. In all, a case for total embracement of GP and its variants in hydrological modelling studies is made so as to put in place strategies that would translate into achieving meaningful progress as it relates to modelling of water resource systems, and also positively influence decision-making by relevant stakeholders.

Keywords: Computational modelling, evolutionary algorithms, genetic programming, hydrological modelling.

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Authors: Osama A. Abdelaal, Saied M. Darwish

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Rapid prototyping (RP) techniques are a group of advanced manufacturing processes that can produce custom made objects directly from computer data such as Computer Aided Design (CAD), Computed Tomography (CT) and Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) data. Using RP fabrication techniques, constructs with controllable and complex internal architecture with appropriate mechanical properties can be achieved. One of the attractive and promising utilization of RP techniques is related to tissue engineering (TE) scaffold fabrication. Tissue engineering scaffold is a 3D construction that acts as a template for tissue regeneration. Although several conventional techniques such as solvent casting and gas forming are utilized in scaffold fabrication; these processes show poor interconnectivity and uncontrollable porosity of the produced scaffolds. So, RP techniques become the best alternative fabrication methods of TE scaffolds. This paper reviews the current state of the art in the area of tissue engineering scaffolds fabrication using advanced RP processes, as well as the current limitations and future trends in scaffold fabrication RP techniques.

Keywords: Biomanufacturing, Rapid prototyping, Solid FreeForm Fabrication, Scaffold Fabrication, Tissue Engineering

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Authors: Seyed Hossein Iranmanesh, Mansoureh Zarezadeh

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This paper presents an application of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to forecast actual cost of a project based on the earned value management system (EVMS). For this purpose, some projects randomly selected based on the standard data set , and it is produced necessary progress data such as actual cost ,actual percent complete , baseline cost and percent complete for five periods of project. Then an ANN with five inputs and five outputs and one hidden layer is trained to produce forecasted actual costs. The comparison between real and forecasted data show better performance based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) criterion. This approach could be applicable to better forecasting the project cost and result in decreasing the risk of project cost overrun, and therefore it is beneficial for planning preventive actions.

Keywords: Earned Value Management System (EVMS), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Estimate At Completion, Forecasting Methods, Project Performance Measurement.

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Authors: Juliana Barcelos Cordeiro, Khashayar Mahani, Farbod Farzan, Mohsen A. Jafari

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Energy disaggregation has been focused by many energy companies since energy efficiency can be achieved when the breakdown of energy consumption is known. Companies have been investing in technologies to come up with software and/or hardware solutions that can provide this type of information to the consumer. On the other hand, not all people can afford to have these technologies. Therefore, in this paper, we present a methodology for breaking down the aggregate consumption and identifying the highdemanding end-uses profiles. These energy profiles will be used to build the forecast model for optimal control purpose. A facility with high cooling load is used as an illustrative case study to demonstrate the results of proposed methodology. We apply a high level energy disaggregation through a pattern recognition approach in order to extract the consumption profile of its rooftop packaged units (RTUs) and present a forecast model for the energy consumption.  

Keywords: Energy consumption forecasting, energy efficiency, load disaggregation, pattern recognition approach.

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Authors: Souhir Ben Amor, Heni Boubaker, Lotfi Belkacem

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This aims of this paper is to forecast the electricity spot prices. First, we focus on modeling the conditional mean of the series so we adopt a generalized fractional -factor Gegenbauer process (k-factor GARMA). Secondly, the residual from the -factor GARMA model has used as a proxy for the conditional variance; these residuals were predicted using two different approaches. In the first approach, a local linear wavelet neural network model (LLWNN) has developed to predict the conditional variance using the Back Propagation learning algorithms. In the second approach, the Gegenbauer generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity process (G-GARCH) has adopted, and the parameters of the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model has estimated using the wavelet methodology based on the discrete wavelet packet transform (DWPT) approach. The empirical results have shown that the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model outperform the hybrid k-factor GARMA-LLWNN model, and find it is more appropriate for forecasts.

Keywords: k-factor, GARMA, LLWNN, G-GARCH, electricity price, forecasting.

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Authors: Snezhana G. Gocheva-Ilieva, Maya P. Stoimenova

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Ambient air pollution with fine particulate matter (PM10) is a systematic permanent problem in many countries around the world. The accumulation of a large number of measurements of both the PM10 concentrations and the accompanying atmospheric factors allow for their statistical modeling to detect dependencies and forecast future pollution. This study applies the classification and regression trees (CART) method for building and analyzing PM10 models. In the empirical study, average daily air data for the city of Pleven, Bulgaria for a period of 5 years are used. Predictors in the models are seven meteorological variables, time variables, as well as lagged PM10 variables and some lagged meteorological variables, delayed by 1 or 2 days with respect to the initial time series, respectively. The degree of influence of the predictors in the models is determined. The selected best CART models are used to forecast future PM10 concentrations for two days ahead after the last date in the modeling procedure and show very accurate results.

Keywords: Cross-validation, decision tree, lagged variables, short-term forecasting.

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Authors: Shashank Gautam

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This paper proposes techniques like MT CMOS, POWER GATING, DUAL STACK, GALEOR and LECTOR to reduce the leakage power. A Full Adder has been designed using these techniques and power dissipation is calculated and is compared with general CMOS logic of Full Adder. Simulation results show the validity of the proposed techniques is effective to save power dissipation and to increase the speed of operation of the circuits to a large extent.

Keywords: Low Power, MT CMOS, Galeor, Lector, Power Gating, Dual Stack, Full Adder.

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Authors: Syeda Maria Ali Shah, Asif Mansoor, Talat Sharafat Rehmani, Safia Mirza

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The stock market of any country acts as a predictor of the economy. The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted the global financial markets. Besides, it has also critically affected the economy of Pakistan. In this study, we consider the role of the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) with regard to the Pakistan Stock Exchange and quantify the impact on macroeconomic variables in presence of COVID-19. The suitable macroeconomic variables are used to quantify the impact of COVID-19 by developing the stochastic model. The sufficiency of the computed model is attained by means of available techniques in the literature. The estimated equations are used to forecast the impact of pandemic on macroeconomic variables. The constructed model can help the policymakers take counteractive measures for restricting the influence of viruses on the Karachi Stock Market.

Keywords: COVID-19, Karachi Stock Market, macroeconomic variables, stochastic model, forecasting.

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Authors: C. G. Jinimole, A. Harsha

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One of the key problems facing in the analysis of Computed Tomography (CT) images is the poor contrast of the images. Image enhancement can be used to improve the visual clarity and quality of the images or to provide a better transformation representation for further processing. Contrast enhancement of images is one of the acceptable methods used for image enhancement in various applications in the medical field. This will be helpful to visualize and extract details of brain infarctions, tumors, and cancers from the CT image. This paper presents a comparison study of five contrast enhancement techniques suitable for the contrast enhancement of CT images. The types of techniques include Power Law Transformation, Logarithmic Transformation, Histogram Equalization, Contrast Stretching, and Laplacian Transformation. All these techniques are compared with each other to find out which enhancement provides better contrast of CT image. For the comparison of the techniques, the parameters Peak Signal to Noise Ratio (PSNR) and Mean Square Error (MSE) are used. Logarithmic Transformation provided the clearer and best quality image compared to all other techniques studied and has got the highest value of PSNR. Comparison concludes with better approach for its future research especially for mapping abnormalities from CT images resulting from Brain Injuries.

Keywords: Computed tomography, enhancement techniques, increasing contrast, PSNR and MSE.

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Authors: R. J. Kuo, W. C. Cheng, W. C. Lien, T. J. Yang

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Taiwan is a hyper endemic area for the Hepatitis B virus (HBV). The estimated total number of HBsAg carriers in the general population who are more than 20 years old is more than 3 million. Therefore, a case record review is conducted from January 2003 to June 2007 for all patients with a diagnosis of acute hepatitis who were admitted to the Emergency Department (ED) of a well-known teaching hospital. The cost for the use of medical resources is defined as the total medical fee. In this study, principal component analysis (PCA) is firstly employed to reduce the number of dimensions. Support vector regression (SVR) and artificial neural network (ANN) are then used to develop the forecasting model. A total of 117 patients meet the inclusion criteria. 61% patients involved in this study are hepatitis B related. The computational result shows that the proposed PCA-SVR model has superior performance than other compared algorithms. In conclusion, the Child-Pugh score and echogram can both be used to predict the cost of medical resources for patients with acute hepatitis in the ED.

Keywords: Acute hepatitis, Medical resource cost, Artificial neural network, Support vector regression.

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Authors: Stefano Frassinelli, Alessandro Niccolai, Riccardo E. Zich

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Sport performance analysis is a technique that is becoming every year more important for athletes of every level. Many techniques have been developed to measure and analyse efficiently the performance of athletes in some sports, but in combat sports these techniques found in many times their limits, due to the high interaction between the two opponents during the competition. In this paper the problem will be framed. Moreover the physical performance measurement problem will be analysed and three different techniques to manage it will be presented. All the techniques have been used to analyse the performance of 22 high level Judo athletes.

Keywords: Sport performance, physical performance, judo, performance coefficients.

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Authors: Su Cheng Haw, G. S. V. Radha Krishna Rao

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Over the past few years, XML (eXtensible Mark-up Language) has emerged as the standard for information representation and data exchange over the Internet. This paper provides a kick-start for new researches venturing in XML databases field. We survey the storage representation for XML document, review the XML query processing and optimization techniques with respect to the particular storage instance. Various optimization technologies have been developed to solve the query retrieval and updating problems. Towards the later year, most researchers proposed hybrid optimization techniques. Hybrid system opens the possibility of covering each technology-s weakness by its strengths. This paper reviews the advantages and limitations of optimization techniques.

Keywords: indexing, labeling scheme, query optimization, XML storage.

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Authors: Kunyanuth Kularbphettong, Cholticha Tongsiri

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The purpose of this research aims to discover the knowledge for analysis student motivation behavior on e-Learning based on Data Mining Techniques, in case of the Information Technology for Communication and Learning Course at Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. The data mining techniques was applied in this research including association rules, classification techniques. The results showed that using data mining technique can indicate the important variables that influence the student motivation behavior on e-Learning.

Keywords: association rule mining, classification techniques, e- Learning, Moodle log Motivation Behavior

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Authors: S. Chokri

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Load modeling is one of the central functions in power systems operations. Electricity cannot be stored, which means that for electric utility, the estimate of the future demand is necessary in managing the production and purchasing in an economically reasonable way. A majority of the recently reported approaches are based on neural network. The attraction of the methods lies in the assumption that neural networks are able to learn properties of the load. However, the development of the methods is not finished, and the lack of comparative results on different model variations is a problem. This paper presents a new approach in order to predict the Tunisia daily peak load. The proposed method employs a computational intelligence scheme based on the Fuzzy neural network (FNN) and support vector regression (SVR). Experimental results obtained indicate that our proposed FNN-SVR technique gives significantly good prediction accuracy compared to some classical techniques.

Keywords: Neural network, Load Forecasting, Fuzzy inference, Machine learning, Fuzzy modeling and rule extraction, Support Vector Regression.

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Authors: Gleda Kutrolli, Maksi Kutrolli, Etjon Meco

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SARS-CoV-2 virus is currently one of the most infectious pathogens for humans. It started in China at the end of 2019 and now it is spread in all over the world. The origin and diffusion of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, is analysed based on the discussion of viral phylogeny theory. With the aim of understanding the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to modelize the spread of the virus and simulate its activity. In this paper, the prediction of coronavirus outbreak is done by using SIR model without vital dynamics, applying different numerical technique solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs). We find out that ABM and MRT methods perform better than other techniques and that the activity of the virus will decrease in April but it never cease (for some time the activity will remain low) and the next cycle will start in the middle July 2020 for Norway and Denmark, and October 2020 for Sweden, and September for Finland.

Keywords: Forecasting, ordinary differential equations, SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, SIR model.

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Authors: Nathar Shah, Bu Kiat Seng

Abstract:

Mobile application development is different from regular application development due to the hardware resource limitations existed in the mobile platforms. In the mobile environment, the application needs to be optimized by the developer to produce optimal software with least overhead. This study discussed about performance optimization techniques that are employed in general application development, and how such techniques are performing on mobile platforms through some empirical evaluations on a mobile emulator, Nokia X3-02 and Nokia C5-03devices. The scope of the work is only confined to mobile platform based on Java Mobile edition architecture. The empirical results showed that techniques such as loop unrolling, dependency chain, and linearized getter and setter performed better by a factor of 3 to 7. Whereas declaration and initialization on the same line or separate line did not improve the performance.

Keywords: Optimization Techniques, Mobile Applications, Performance Evaluation, J2ME, Empirical Experiments

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Authors: L. Basha, E. Gjika

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The exchange rate is one of the most important economic variables, especially for a small, open economy such as Albania. Its effect is noticeable on one country's competitiveness, trade and current account, inflation, wages, domestic economic activity and bank stability. This study investigates the fluctuation of Albania’s exchange rates using monthly average foreign currency, Euro (Eur) to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate with a time span from January 2008 to June 2021 and the macroeconomic factors that have a significant effect on the exchange rate. Initially, the Random Forest Regression algorithm is constructed to understand the impact of economic variables in the behavior of monthly average foreign currencies exchange rates. Then the forecast of macro-economic indicators for 12 months was performed using time series models. The predicted values received are placed in the random forest model in order to obtain the average monthly forecast of Euro to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate for the period July 2021 to June 2022.

Keywords: Exchange rate, Random Forest, time series, Machine Learning, forecasting.

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Authors: Madina Hamiane, Amina Khunji

Abstract:

Detecting changes in multiple images of the same scene has recently seen increased interest due to the many contemporary applications including smart security systems, smart homes, remote sensing, surveillance, medical diagnosis, weather forecasting, speed and distance measurement, post-disaster forensics and much more. These applications differ in the scale, nature, and speed of change. This paper presents an application of image processing techniques to implement a real-time change detection system. Change is identified by comparing the RGB representation of two consecutive frames captured in real-time. The detection threshold can be controlled to account for various luminance levels. The comparison result is passed through a filter before decision making to reduce false positives, especially at lower luminance conditions. The system is implemented with a MATLAB Graphical User interface with several controls to manage its operation and performance.

Keywords: Image change detection, Image processing, image filtering, thresholding, B/W quantization.

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Authors: Srinivasan Latha, M. R. Christhu Raj, Rajeev Sukumaran

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Active learning strategies have completely rewritten the concept of teaching and learning. Academicians have clocked back to Socratic approaches of questioning. Educators have started implementing active learning strategies for effective learning with the help of tools and technology. As Generation-Y learners are mostly visual, engaging them using visualization techniques play a vital role in their learning process. The facilitator has an important role in intrinsically motivating the learners using different approaches to create self-learning interests. Different visualization techniques were used along with lectures to help students understand and appreciate the concepts. Anonymous feedback was collected from learners. The consolidated report shows that majority of learners accepted the usage of visualization techniques was helpful in understanding concepts as well as create interest in learning the course. This study helps to understand, how the use of visualization techniques help the facilitator to engage learners effectively as well create and intrinsic motivation for their learning.

Keywords: Visualization techniques, concept maps, mind maps, argument maps, flowchart, tree diagram, problem solving.

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Authors: J. Chelladurai, G. Saravana Ilango, C. Nagamani, S. Senthil Kumar

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Pulse width modulation (PWM) techniques have been the subject of intensive research for different industrial and power sector applications. A large variety of methods, different in concept and performance, have been newly developed and described. This paper analyzes the comparative merits of Sinusoidal Pulse Width Modulation (SPWM) and Space Vector Pulse Width Modulation (SVPWM) techniques and the suitability of these techniques in a Shunt Active Filter (SAF). The objective is to select the scheme that offers effective utilization of DC bus voltage and also harmonic reduction at the input side. The effectiveness of the PWM techniques is tested in the SAF configuration with a non linear load. The performance of the SAF with the SPWM and (SVPWM) techniques are compared with respect to the THD in source current. The study reveals that in the context of closed loop SAF control with the SVPWM technique there is only a minor improvement in THD. The utilization of the DC bus with SVPWM is also not significant compared to that with SPWM because of the non sinusoidal modulating signal from the controller in SAF configuration.

Keywords: Voltage source inverter, Shunt active filter, SPWM, SVPWM, Matlab/SIMULINK.

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Authors: Ahmad H. Abdelgwad

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Microstrip patch antennas are widely used in many wireless communication applications because of their various advantages such as light weight, compact size, inexpensive, ease of fabrication and high reliability. However, narrow bandwidth and low gain are the major drawbacks of microstrip antennas. The radiation properties of microstrip antenna is affected by many designing factors like feeding techniques, manufacturing substrate, patch and ground structure. This manuscript presents a review of the most popular gain and bandwidth enhancement methods of microstrip antenna and reports a brief description of its feeding techniques.

Keywords: Gain and bandwidth enhancement, slotted patch, parasitic patch, electromagnetic band gap, defected ground, feeding techniques.

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Authors: Sagaren Pillay

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In this paper bi-annual time series data on unemployment rates (from the Labour Force Survey) are expanded to quarterly rates and linked to quarterly unemployment rates (from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey). The resultant linked series and the consumer price index (CPI) series are examined using Johansen’s cointegration approach and vector error correction modeling. The study finds that both the series are integrated of order one and are cointegrated. A statistically significant co-integrating relationship is found to exist between the time series of unemployment rates and the CPI. Given this significant relationship, the study models this relationship using Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), one with a restriction on the deterministic term and the other with no restriction.

A formal statistical confirmation of the existence of a unique linear and lagged relationship between inflation and unemployment for the period between September 2000 and June 2011 is presented. For the given period, the CPI was found to be an unbiased predictor of the unemployment rate. This relationship can be explored further for the development of appropriate forecasting models incorporating other study variables.

Keywords: Forecasting, lagged, linear, relationship.

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