Search results for: Estimate At Completion.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 873

Search results for: Estimate At Completion.

603 Human Interactive E-learning Systems using Head Posture Images

Authors: Yucel Ugurlu

Abstract:

This paper explains a novel approach to human interactive e-learning systems using head posture images. Students- face and hair information are used to identify a human presence and estimate the gaze direction. We then define the human-computer interaction level and test the definition using ten students and seventy different posture images. The experimental results show that head posture images provide adequate information for increasing human-computer interaction in e-learning systems.

Keywords: E-learning, image segmentation, human-presence, gaze-direction, human-computer interaction, LabVIEW

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602 Estimating Development Time of Software Projects Using a Neuro Fuzzy Approach

Authors: Venus Marza, Amin Seyyedi, Luiz Fernando Capretz

Abstract:

Software estimation accuracy is among the greatest challenges for software developers. This study aimed at building and evaluating a neuro-fuzzy model to estimate software projects development time. The forty-one modules developed from ten programs were used as dataset. Our proposed approach is compared with fuzzy logic and neural network model and Results show that the value of MMRE (Mean of Magnitude of Relative Error) applying neuro-fuzzy was substantially lower than MMRE applying fuzzy logic and neural network.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, Fuzzy Logic, Neuro-Fuzzy, Software Estimation

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601 Considerations for Effectively Using Probability of Failure as a Means of Slope Design Appraisal for Homogeneous and Heterogeneous Rock Masses

Authors: Neil Bar, Andrew Heweston

Abstract:

Probability of failure (PF) often appears alongside factor of safety (FS) in design acceptance criteria for rock slope, underground excavation and open pit mine designs. However, the design acceptance criteria generally provide no guidance relating to how PF should be calculated for homogeneous and heterogeneous rock masses, or what qualifies a ‘reasonable’ PF assessment for a given slope design. Observational and kinematic methods were widely used in the 1990s until advances in computing permitted the routine use of numerical modelling. In the 2000s and early 2010s, PF in numerical models was generally calculated using the point estimate method. More recently, some limit equilibrium analysis software offer statistical parameter inputs along with Monte-Carlo or Latin-Hypercube sampling methods to automatically calculate PF. Factors including rock type and density, weathering and alteration, intact rock strength, rock mass quality and shear strength, the location and orientation of geologic structure, shear strength of geologic structure and groundwater pore pressure influence the stability of rock slopes. Significant engineering and geological judgment, interpretation and data interpolation is usually applied in determining these factors and amalgamating them into a geotechnical model which can then be analysed. Most factors are estimated ‘approximately’ or with allowances for some variability rather than ‘exactly’. When it comes to numerical modelling, some of these factors are then treated deterministically (i.e. as exact values), while others have probabilistic inputs based on the user’s discretion and understanding of the problem being analysed. This paper discusses the importance of understanding the key aspects of slope design for homogeneous and heterogeneous rock masses and how they can be translated into reasonable PF assessments where the data permits. A case study from a large open pit gold mine in a complex geological setting in Western Australia is presented to illustrate how PF can be calculated using different methods and obtain markedly different results. Ultimately sound engineering judgement and logic is often required to decipher the true meaning and significance (if any) of some PF results.

Keywords: Probability of failure, point estimate method, Monte-Carlo simulations, sensitivity analysis, slope stability.

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600 Assessment of Multiscale Information for Short Physiological Time Series

Authors: Young-Seok Choi

Abstract:

This paper presents a multiscale information measure of Electroencephalogram (EEG) for analysis with a short data length. A multiscale extension of permutation entropy (MPE) is capable of fully reflecting the dynamical characteristics of EEG across different temporal scales. However, MPE yields an imprecise estimation due to coarse-grained procedure at large scales. We present an improved MPE measure to estimate entropy more accurately with a short time series. By computing entropies of all coarse-grained time series and averaging those at each scale, it leads to the modified MPE (MMPE) which provides an enhanced accuracy as compared to MPE. Simulation and experimental studies confirmed that MMPE has proved its capability over MPE in terms of accuracy.

Keywords: Multiscale entropy, permutation entropy, EEG, seizure.

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599 An Estimation of the Performance of HRLS Algorithm

Authors: Shazia Javed, Noor Atinah Ahmad

Abstract:

The householder RLS (HRLS) algorithm is an O(N2) algorithm which recursively updates an arbitrary square-root of the input data correlation matrix and naturally provides the LS weight vector. A data dependent householder matrix is applied for such an update. In this paper a recursive estimate of the eigenvalue spread and misalignment of the algorithm is presented at a very low computational cost. Misalignment is found to be highly sensitive to the eigenvalue spread of input signals, output noise of the system and exponential window. Simulation results show noticeable degradation in the misalignment by increase in eigenvalue spread as well as system-s output noise, while exponential window was kept constant.

Keywords: HRLS algorithm, eigenvalue spread, misalignment.

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598 Some Application of Random Fuzzy Queueing System Based On Fuzzy Simulation

Authors: Behrouz Fathi-Vajargah, Sara Ghasemalipour

Abstract:

This paper studies a random fuzzy queueing system that the interarrival times of customers arriving at the server and the service times are independent and identically distributed random fuzzy variables. We match the random fuzzy queueing system with the random fuzzy alternating renewal process and we do not use from α-pessimistic and α-optimistic values to estimate the average chance of the event ”random fuzzy queueing system is busy at time t”, we employ the fuzzy simulation method in practical applications. Some theorem is proved and finally we solve a numerical example with fuzzy simulation method.

Keywords: Random fuzzy variables, Fuzzy simulation, Queueing system, Interarrival times.

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597 Determination of a Fair Price for Blood Transportation by Applying the Vehicle Routing Problem: A Case for National Blood Center, Thailand

Authors: S. Pathomsiri, P. Sukaboon

Abstract:

The National Blood Center, Thai Red Cross Society is responsible for providing blood to hospitals all over the country. When any hospital needs blood, it will have to send the vehicle to pick up at the NBC. There are a lot of vehicles to pick up blood at the NBC every day. Each vehicle is usually empty for inbound trip and a little loaded for outbound. The NBC realized such waste or loss and there have been the third party offered to distribute blood and charge for fee. This paper proposes to apply the vehicle routing problem (VRP) for estimating the fair price. The idea is tested with the real data during seven-day period of 6 – 12 July 2010 to estimate the fair price for transporting blood in Bangkok Metropolitan Region.

Keywords: Blood Supply Chain, Vehicle Routing Problem, Heuristic, Saving Algorithm, Fair Price.

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596 Density Estimation using Generalized Linear Model and a Linear Combination of Gaussians

Authors: Aly Farag, Ayman El-Baz, Refaat Mohamed

Abstract:

In this paper we present a novel approach for density estimation. The proposed approach is based on using the logistic regression model to get initial density estimation for the given empirical density. The empirical data does not exactly follow the logistic regression model, so, there will be a deviation between the empirical density and the density estimated using logistic regression model. This deviation may be positive and/or negative. In this paper we use a linear combination of Gaussian (LCG) with positive and negative components as a model for this deviation. Also, we will use the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate the parameters of LCG. Experiments on real images demonstrate the accuracy of our approach.

Keywords: Logistic regression model, Expectationmaximization, Segmentation.

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595 Modeling of Heat and Mass Transfer in Soil Plant-Atmosphere. Influence of the Spatial Variability of Soil Hydrodynamic

Authors: Aouattou Nabila, Saighi Mohamed, Fekih Malika

Abstract:

The modeling of water transfer in the unsaturated zone uses techniques and methods of the soil physics to solve the Richards-s equation. However, there is a disaccord between the size of the measurements provided by the soil physics and the size of the fields of hydrological modeling problem, to which is added the strong spatial variability of soil hydraulic properties. The objective of this work was to develop a methodology to estimate the hydrodynamic parameters for modeling water transfers at different hydrological scales in the soil-plant atmosphere systems.

Keywords: Hydraulic properties, Modeling, Unsaturated zone, Transfer, Water

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594 Analyzing the Factors Influencing Exclusive Breastfeeding Using the Generalized Poisson Regression Model

Authors: Cheika Jahangeer, Naushad Mamode Khan, Maleika Heenaye-Mamode Khan

Abstract:

Exclusive breastfeeding is the feeding of a baby on no other milk apart from breast milk. Exclusive breastfeeding during the first 6 months of life is of fundamental importance because it supports optimal growth and development during infancy and reduces the risk of obliterating diseases and problems. Moreover, in developed countries, exclusive breastfeeding has decreased the incidence and/or severity of diarrhea, lower respiratory infection and urinary tract infection. In this paper, we study the factors that influence exclusive breastfeeding and use the Generalized Poisson regression model to analyze the practices of exclusive breastfeeding in Mauritius. We develop two sets of quasi-likelihood equations (QLE)to estimate the parameters.

Keywords: Exclusive breastfeeding, Regression model, Quasilikelihood.

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593 Resource Leveling Optimization in Construction Projects of High Voltage Substations Using Nature-Inspired Intelligent Evolutionary Algorithms

Authors: Dimitrios Ntardas, Alexandros Tzanetos, Georgios Dounias

Abstract:

High Voltage Substations (HVS) are the intermediate step between production of power and successfully transmitting it to clients, making them one of the most important checkpoints in power grids. Nowadays - renewable resources and consequently distributed generation are growing fast, the construction of HVS is of high importance both in terms of quality and time completion so that new energy producers can quickly and safely intergrade in power grids. The resources needed, such as machines and workers, should be carefully allocated so that the construction of a HVS is completed on time, with the lowest possible cost (e.g. not spending additional cost that were not taken into consideration, because of project delays), but in the highest quality. In addition, there are milestones and several checkpoints to be precisely achieved during construction to ensure the cost and timeline control and to ensure that the percentage of governmental funding will be granted. The management of such a demanding project is a NP-hard problem that consists of prerequisite constraints and resource limits for each task of the project. In this work, a hybrid meta-heuristic method is implemented to solve this problem. Meta-heuristics have been proven to be quite useful when dealing with high-dimensional constraint optimization problems. Hybridization of them results in boost of their performance.

Keywords: High voltage substations, nature-inspired algorithms, project management, meta-heuristics.

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592 Parametric Cost Estimating Relationships for Design Effort Estimation

Authors: Adil Salam, Nadia Bhuiyan, Gerard J. Gouw

Abstract:

The Canadian aerospace industry faces many challenges. One of them is the difficulty in estimating costs. In particular, the design effort required in a project impacts resource requirements and lead-time, and consequently the final cost. This paper presents the findings of a case study conducted for recognized global leader in the design and manufacturing of aircraft engines. The study models parametric cost estimation relationships to estimate the design effort of integrated blade-rotor low-pressure compressor fans. Several effort drivers are selected to model the relationship. Comparative analyses of three types of models are conducted. The model with the best accuracy and significance in design estimation is retained.

Keywords: Effort estimation, design, aerospace.

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591 Angle of Arrival Detection with Fifth Order Phase Operators

Authors: Youssef Khmou, Said Safi

Abstract:

In this paper, a fifth order propagator operators are proposed for estimating the Angles Of Arrival (AOA) of narrowband electromagnetic waves impinging on antenna array when its number of sensors is larger than the number of radiating sources.

The array response matrix is partitioned into five linearly dependent phases to construct the noise projector using five different propagators from non diagonal blocks of the spectral matrice of the received data; hence, five different estimators are proposed to estimate the angles of the sources. The simulation results proved the performance of the proposed estimators in the presence of white noise comparatively to high resolution eigen based spectra.

Keywords: DOA, narrowband, antenna, propagator, high resolution. Array, operator, angular, spectrum, goniometry.

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590 Learning of Class Membership Values by Ellipsoidal Decision Regions

Authors: Leehter Yao, Chin-Chin Lin

Abstract:

A novel method of learning complex fuzzy decision regions in the n-dimensional feature space is proposed. Through the fuzzy decision regions, a given pattern's class membership value of every class is determined instead of the conventional crisp class the pattern belongs to. The n-dimensional fuzzy decision region is approximated by union of hyperellipsoids. By explicitly parameterizing these hyperellipsoids, the decision regions are determined by estimating the parameters of each hyperellipsoid.Genetic Algorithm is applied to estimate the parameters of each region component. With the global optimization ability of GA, the learned decision region can be arbitrarily complex.

Keywords: Ellipsoid, genetic algorithm, decision regions, classification.

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589 Greenhouse Gasses’ Effect on Atmospheric Temperature Increase and the Observable Effects on Ecosystems

Authors: Alexander J. Severinsky

Abstract:

Radiative forces of greenhouse gases (GHG) increase the temperature of the Earth's surface, more on land, and less in oceans, due to their thermal capacities. Given this inertia, the temperature increase is delayed over time. Air temperature, however, is not delayed as air thermal capacity is much lower. In this study, through analysis and synthesis of multidisciplinary science and data, an estimate of atmospheric temperature increase is made. Then, this estimate is used to shed light on current observations of ice and snow loss, desertification and forest fires, and increased extreme air disturbances. The reason for this inquiry is due to the author’s skepticism that current changes cannot be explained by a "~1 oC" global average surface temperature rise within the last 50-60 years. The only other plausible cause to explore for understanding is that of atmospheric temperature rise. The study utilizes an analysis of air temperature rise from three different scientific disciplines: thermodynamics, climate science experiments, and climactic historical studies. The results coming from these diverse disciplines are nearly the same, within ± 1.6%. The direct radiative force of GHGs with a high level of scientific understanding is near 4.7 W/m2 on average over the Earth’s entire surface in 2018, as compared to one in pre-Industrial time in the mid-1700s. The additional radiative force of fast feedbacks coming from various forms of water gives approximately an additional ~15 W/m2. In 2018, these radiative forces heated the atmosphere by approximately 5.1 oC, which will create a thermal equilibrium average ground surface temperature increase of 4.6 oC to 4.8 oC by the end of this century. After 2018, the temperature will continue to rise without any additional increases in the concentration of the GHGs, primarily of carbon dioxide and methane. These findings of the radiative force of GHGs in 2018 were applied to estimates of effects on major Earth ecosystems. This additional force of nearly 20 W/m2 causes an increase in ice melting by an additional rate of over 90 cm/year, green leaves temperature increase by nearly 5 oC, and a work energy increase of air by approximately 40 Joules/mole. This explains the observed high rates of ice melting at all altitudes and latitudes, the spread of deserts and increases in forest fires, as well as increased energy of tornadoes, typhoons, hurricanes, and extreme weather, much more plausibly than the 1.5 oC increase in average global surface temperature in the same time interval. Planned mitigation and adaptation measures might prove to be much more effective when directed toward the reduction of existing GHGs in the atmosphere.

Keywords: GHG radiative forces, GHG air temperature, GHG thermodynamics, GHG historical, GHG experimental, GHG radiative force on ice, GHG radiative force on plants, GHG radiative force in air.

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588 Presenting a Combinatorial Feature to Estimate Depth of Anesthesia

Authors: Toktam Zoughi, Reza Boostani

Abstract:

Determining depth of anesthesia is a challenging problem in the context of biomedical signal processing. Various methods have been suggested to determine a quantitative index as depth of anesthesia, but most of these methods suffer from high sensitivity during the surgery. A novel method based on energy scattering of samples in the wavelet domain is suggested to represent the basic content of electroencephalogram (EEG) signal. In this method, first EEG signal is decomposed into different sub-bands, then samples are squared and energy of samples sequence is constructed through each scale and time, which is normalized and finally entropy of the resulted sequences is suggested as a reliable index. Empirical Results showed that applying the proposed method to the EEG signals can classify the awake, moderate and deep anesthesia states similar to BIS.

Keywords: Depth of anesthesia, EEG, BIS, Wavelet transforms.

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587 Generalized Mean-field Theory of Phase Unwrapping via Multiple Interferograms

Authors: Yohei Saika

Abstract:

On the basis of Bayesian inference using the maximizer of the posterior marginal estimate, we carry out phase unwrapping using multiple interferograms via generalized mean-field theory. Numerical calculations for a typical wave-front in remote sensing using the synthetic aperture radar interferometry, phase diagram in hyper-parameter space clarifies that the present method succeeds in phase unwrapping perfectly under the constraint of surface- consistency condition, if the interferograms are not corrupted by any noises. Also, we find that prior is useful for extending a phase in which phase unwrapping under the constraint of the surface-consistency condition. These results are quantitatively confirmed by the Monte Carlo simulation.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, generalized mean-field theory, phase unwrapping, statistical mechanics.

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586 Student Attitude towards Entrepreneurship: A South African and Dutch Comparison

Authors: Natanya Meyer, Johann Landsberg

Abstract:

Unemployment among the youth is a significant problem in South Africa. Large corporations and the public sector simply cannot create enough jobs. Too many youths in South Africa currently do not consider entrepreneurship as an option in order to become independent. Unlike the youth of the Netherlands, South African youth prefer to find employment in the public or private sector. The Netherlands has a much lower unemployment rate than South Africa and the Dutch are generally very entrepreneurial. From early on, entrepreneurship is considered a desirable career option in the Netherlands. The purpose of this study was to determine whether there is a difference in the perceptions of some Dutch and South African students in terms of unemployment and entrepreneurship. Questionnaires were distributed to students at the North West University's Vaal Triangle campus in Vanderbijlpark in Gauteng, South Africa and the Technical University of Delft in the Netherlands. A descriptive statistical analysis approach was followed and the means for the independent questions were calculated. The results demonstrate that the Dutch students are not as concerned about unemployment after completion of their studies as this is not as significant a problem as it is in South Africa. Both groups had positive responses towards the posed questions, but the South African group felt more strongly about the issues. Both groups of students felt that there was a need for more practical entrepreneurship training. The South African education system should focus on practical entrepreneurship training from a young age.

Keywords: Entrepreneurship development, entrepreneurship development programmes, entrepreneurship intention, Netherlands, South Africa, unemployment.

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585 Analysis of Investment in Knowledge inside OECD Countries

Authors: JunSeok Hwang, Mohsen Gerami

Abstract:

Knowledge is the foundation for growth and development. Investment in knowledge improves new method for originate knowledge society and knowledge economy. Investment in knowledge embraces expenditure on education and R&D and software. Measuring of investment in knowledge is characteristically complicated. We examine the influence of investment in knowledge in multifactor productivity growth and numbers of patent. We analyze the annual growth of investment in knowledge and we estimate portion of each country intended for produce total investment in knowledge on the whole OECD. We determine the relative efficiency of average patent numbers with average investment in knowledge and we compare GDP growth rates and growth of knowledge investment. The main purpose in this paper is to study to evaluate different aspect, influence and output of investment in knowledge in OECD countries.

Keywords: Knowledge, GDP, Multifactor productivity, Investment, efficiency.

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584 Encouraging the Development of Scientific Literacy in Early Childhood Institutions: Croatian Experience

Authors: L. Vujičić, Ž. Ivković, Ž. Boneta

Abstract:

There is a widespread belief in everyday discourse that science subjects (physics, chemistry and biology) are, along with math, the most difficult school subjects in the education of an individual. This assumption is usually justified by the following facts: low GPA in these subjects, the number of pupils who fail these subjects is high in comparison to other subjects, and the number of pupils interested in continuing their studies in the fields with a focus on science subjects is lower compared to non-science-oriented fields. From that perspective, the project: “Could it be different? How do children explore it?” becomes extremely interesting because it is focused on young children and on the introduction of new methods, with aim of arousing interest in scientific literacy development in 10 kindergartens by applying the methodology of an action research, with an ethnographic approach. We define scientific literacy as a process of encouraging and nurturing the research and explorative spirit in children, as well as their natural potential and abilities that represent an object of scientific research: to learn about exploration by conducting exploration. Upon project completion, an evaluation questionnaire was created for the parents of the children who had participated in the project, as well as for those whose children had not been involved in the project. The purpose of the first questionnaire was to examine the level of satisfaction with the project implementation and its outcomes among those parents whose children had been involved in the project (N=142), while the aim of the second questionnaire was to find out how much the parents of the children not involved (N=154) in this activity were interested in this topic.

Keywords: Documenting, early childhood education, evaluation questionnaire for parents, scientific literacy development.

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583 Risk Assessment of Acrylamide Intake from Roasted Potatoes in Latvia

Authors: Irisa Murniece, Daina Karklina, Ruta Galoburda

Abstract:

From food consumption surveys has been found that potato consumption comparing to other European countries is one of the highest. Hence acrylamide (AA) intake coming from fried potatoes in population might be high as well. The aim of the research was to determine acrylamide content and estimate intake of acrylamide from roasted potatoes bred and cultivated in Latvia. Five common Latvian potato varieties were selected: Lenora, Brasla, Imanta, Zile, and Madara. A two-year research was conducted during two periods: just after harvesting and after six months of storage. Time and temperature (210 ± 5°C) was recorded during frying. AA was extracted from potatoes by solid phase extraction and AA content was determined by LC-MS/MS. estimated intake of acrylamide ranges from 0.012 to 0.496μgkg-1 BW per day.

Keywords: potato, roasting, variety, acrylamide, Latvia, risk assessment.

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582 Vehicle Velocity Estimation for Traffic Surveillance System

Authors: H. A. Rahim, U. U. Sheikh, R. B. Ahmad, A. S. M. Zain

Abstract:

This paper describes an algorithm to estimate realtime vehicle velocity using image processing technique from the known camera calibration parameters. The presented algorithm involves several main steps. First, the moving object is extracted by utilizing frame differencing technique. Second, the object tracking method is applied and the speed is estimated based on the displacement of the object-s centroid. Several assumptions are listed to simplify the transformation of 2D images from 3D real-world images. The results obtained from the experiment have been compared to the estimated ground truth. From this experiment, it exhibits that the proposed algorithm has achieved the velocity accuracy estimation of about ± 1.7 km/h.

Keywords: camera calibration, object tracking, velocity estimation, video image processing

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581 An Online Evaluation of Operating Reserve for System Security

Authors: Le-Ren Chang-Chien, Yin-Juin Lin, Chin-Chung Wu

Abstract:

Utilities use operating reserve for frequency regulation.To ensure that the operating frequency and system security are well maintained, the operating grid codes always specify that the reserve quantity and response rate should meet some prescribed levels. This paper proposes a methodology to evaluate system's contingency reserve for an isolated power network. With the presented algorithm to estimate system's frequency response characteristic, an online allocation of contingency reserve would be feasible to meet the grid codes for contingency operation. Test results from the simulated conditions, and from the actual operating data verify the merits of the proposed methodology to system's frequency control, and security.

Keywords: Contingency, frequency control, operating reserve.

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580 A Numerical Method for Diffusion and Cahn-Hilliard Equations on Evolving Spherical Surfaces

Authors: Jyh-Yang Wu, Sheng-Gwo Chen

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a simple effective numerical geometric method to estimate the divergence of a vector field over a curved surface. The conservation law is an important principle in physics and mathematics. However, many well-known numerical methods for solving diffusion equations do not obey conservation laws. Our presented method in this paper combines the divergence theorem with a generalized finite difference method and obeys the conservation law on discrete closed surfaces. We use the similar method to solve the Cahn-Hilliard equations on evolving spherical surfaces and observe stability results in our numerical simulations.

Keywords: Conservation laws, diffusion equations, Cahn-Hilliard Equations, evolving surfaces.

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579 A Novel Pilot Scheme for Frequency Offset and Channel Estimation in 2x2 MIMO-OFDM

Authors: N. Promsuwanna, P. Uthansakul, M. Uthansakul

Abstract:

The Carrier Frequency Offset (CFO) due to timevarying fading channel is the main cause of the loss of orthogonality among OFDM subcarriers which is linked to inter-carrier interference (ICI). Hence, it is necessary to precisely estimate and compensate the CFO. Especially for mobile broadband communications, CFO and channel gain also have to be estimated and tracked to maintain the system performance. Thus, synchronization pilots are embedded in every OFDM symbol to track the variations. In this paper, we present the pilot scheme for both channel and CFO estimation where channel estimation process can be carried out with only one OFDM symbol. Additional, the proposed pilot scheme also provides better performance in CFO estimation comparing with the conventional orthogonal pilot scheme due to the increasing of signal-tointerference ratio.

Keywords: MIMO, OFDM, carrier frequency offset, channel, estimation.

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578 Portfolio Management for Construction Company during Covid-19 Using AHP Technique

Authors: Sareh Rajabi, Salwa Bheiry

Abstract:

In general, Covid-19 created many financial and non-financial damages to the economy and community. Level and severity of covid-19 as pandemic case varies over the region and due to different types of the projects. Covid-19 virus emerged as one of the most imperative risk management factors word-wide recently. Therefore, as part of portfolio management assessment, it is essential to evaluate severity of such risk on the project and program in portfolio management level to avoid any risky portfolio. Covid-19 appeared very effectively in South America, part of Europe and Middle East. Such pandemic infection affected the whole universe, due to lock down, interruption in supply chain management, health and safety requirements, transportations and commercial impacts. Therefore, this research proposes Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to analyze and assess such pandemic case like Covid-19 and its impacts on the construction projects. The AHP technique uses four sub-criteria: Health and safety, commercial risk, completion risk and contractual risk to evaluate the project and program. The result will provide the decision makers with information which project has higher or lower risk in case of Covid-19 and pandemic scenario. Therefore, the decision makers can have most feasible solution based on effective weighted criteria for project selection within their portfolio to match with the organization’s strategies.

Keywords: Portfolio management, risk management, COVID-19, analytical hierarchy process technique.

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577 Structural Analysis of an Active Morphing Wing for Enhancing UAV Performance

Authors: E. Kaygan, A. Gatto

Abstract:

A numerical study of a design concept for actively controlling wing twist is described in this paper. The concept consists of morphing elements which were designed to provide a rigid and seamless skin while maintaining structural rigidity. The wing structure is first modeled in CATIA V5 then imported into ANSYS for structural analysis. Athena Vortex Lattice method (AVL) is used to estimate aerodynamic response as well as aerodynamic loads of morphing wings, afterwards a structural optimization performed via ANSYS Static. Overall, the results presented in this paper show that the concept provides efficient wing twist while preserving an aerodynamically smooth and compliant surface. Sufficient structural rigidity in bending is also obtained. This concept is suggested as a possible alternative for morphing skin applications. 

Keywords: Aircraft, morphing, skin, twist.

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576 Identification of Nonlinear Systems Structured by Hammerstein-Wiener Model

Authors: A. Brouri, F. Giri, A. Mkhida, F. Z. Chaoui, A. Elkarkri, M. L. Chhibat

Abstract:

Standard Hammerstein-Wiener models consist of a linear subsystem sandwiched by two memoryless nonlinearities. The problem of identifying Hammerstein-Wiener systems is addressed in the presence of linear subsystem of structure totally unknown and polynomial input and output nonlinearities. Presently, the system nonlinearities are allowed to be noninvertible. The system identification problem is dealt by developing a two-stage frequency identification method. First, the parameters of system nonlinearities are identified. In the second stage, a frequency approach is designed to estimate the linear subsystem frequency gain. All involved estimators are proved to be consistent.

Keywords: Nonlinear system identification, Hammerstein systems, Wiener systems, frequency identification.

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575 Optimum Stratification of a Skewed Population

Authors: D.K. Rao, M.G.M. Khan, K.G. Reddy

Abstract:

The focus of this paper is to develop a technique of solving a combined problem of determining Optimum Strata Boundaries(OSB) and Optimum Sample Size (OSS) of each stratum, when the population understudy isskewed and the study variable has a Pareto frequency distribution. The problem of determining the OSB isformulated as a Mathematical Programming Problem (MPP) which is then solved by dynamic programming technique. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the computational details of the proposed method. The proposed technique is useful to obtain OSB and OSS for a Pareto type skewed population, which minimizes the variance of the estimate of population mean.

Keywords: Stratified sampling, Optimum strata boundaries, Optimum sample size, Pareto distribution, Mathematical programming problem, Dynamic programming technique.

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574 Estimating the Flow Velocity Using Flow Generated Sound

Authors: Saeed Hosseini, Ali Reza Tahavvor

Abstract:

Sound processing is one the subjects that newly attracts a lot of researchers. It is efficient and usually less expensive than other methods. In this paper the flow generated sound is used to estimate the flow speed of free flows. Many sound samples are gathered. After analyzing the data, a parameter named wave power is chosen. For all samples the wave power is calculated and averaged for each flow speed. A curve is fitted to the averaged data and a correlation between the wave power and flow speed is found. Test data are used to validate the method and errors for all test data were under 10 percent. The speed of the flow can be estimated by calculating the wave power of the flow generated sound and using the proposed correlation.

Keywords: Flow generated sound, sound processing, speed, wave power.

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