Search results for: Carlos Ramirez
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 140

Search results for: Carlos Ramirez

110 Use of Personal Rhythm to Authenticate Encrypted Messages

Authors: Carlos Gonzalez

Abstract:

When communicating using private and secure keys, there is always the doubt as to the identity of the message creator. We introduce an algorithm that uses the personal typing rhythm (keystroke dynamics) of the message originator to increase the trust of the authenticity of the message originator by the message recipient. The methodology proposes the use of a Rhythm Certificate Authority (RCA) to validate rhythm information. An illustrative example of the communication between Bob and Alice and the RCA is included. An algorithm of how to communicate with the RCA is presented. This RCA can be an independent authority or an enhanced Certificate Authority like the one used in public key infrastructure (PKI).

Keywords: Personal rhythm, public-key encryption, authentication, digital signature, keystroke dynamics.

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109 Verification and Validation for Java Classes using Design by Contract. The Modular External Approach

Authors: Dario Ramirez de Leon, Oscar Chavez Bosquez, Julian J. Francisco Leon

Abstract:

Since the conception of JML, many tools, applications and implementations have been done. In this context, the users or developers who want to use JML seem surounded by many of these tools, applications and so on. Looking for a common infrastructure and an independent language to provide a bridge between these tools and JML, we developed an approach to embedded contracts in XML for Java: XJML. This approach offer us the ability to separate preconditions, posconditions and class invariants using JML and XML, so we made a front-end which can process Runtime Assertion Checking, Extended Static Checking and Full Static Program Verification. Besides, the capabilities for this front-end can be extended and easily implemented thanks to XML. We believe that XJML is an easy way to start the building of a Graphic User Interface delivering in this way a friendly and IDE independency to developers community wich want to work with JML.

Keywords: Model checking, verification and validation, JML, XML, java, runtime assertion checking, extended static checking, full static program verification.

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108 Non Inmersive Virtual Reality for Improving Teaching Processes

Authors: Galeano R. Katherine, Rincon L. David, Luengas. Lely, Guevara. Juan Carlos

Abstract:

The following paper shows an interactive tool which main purpose is to teach how to play a flute. It consists of three stages the first one is the instruction and teaching process through a software application, the second is the practice part when the user starts to play the flute (hardware specially designed for this application) this flute is capable of capturing how is being played the flute and the final stage is the one in which the data captured are sent to the software and the user is evaluated in order to give him / she a correction or an acceptance

Keywords: acoustoelectric devices, computer applications, learning systems, music, technological innovation, virtual reality

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107 Hierarchical Clustering Analysis with SOM Networks

Authors: Diego Ordonez, Carlos Dafonte, Minia Manteiga, Bernardino Arcayy

Abstract:

This work presents a neural network model for the clustering analysis of data based on Self Organizing Maps (SOM). The model evolves during the training stage towards a hierarchical structure according to the input requirements. The hierarchical structure symbolizes a specialization tool that provides refinements of the classification process. The structure behaves like a single map with different resolutions depending on the region to analyze. The benefits and performance of the algorithm are discussed in application to the Iris dataset, a classical example for pattern recognition.

Keywords: Neural networks, Self-organizing feature maps, Hierarchicalsystems, Pattern clustering methods.

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106 Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: The Case of Mexico

Authors: Mario Gómez, José Carlos Rodríguez

Abstract:

The causality between energy consumption and economic growth has been an important issue in the economic literature. This paper studies the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Mexico for the period of 1971-2011. In so doing, unit root and causality tests are applied. The results show that energy consumption and economic growth series are stationary and there is also a causality relationship running from economic growth to electricity consumption. Therefore, any energy conservation policy would have little or no impact at all on economic growth in México.

Keywords: Causality, economic growth, electricity consumption, Mexico.

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105 Control Strategies for a Robot for Interaction with Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder

Authors: Vinicius Binotte, Guilherme Baldo, Christiane Goulart, Carlos Valadão, Eliete Caldeira, Teodiano Bastos

Abstract:

Socially assistive robotic has become increasingly active and it is present in therapies of people affected for several neurobehavioral conditions, such as Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). In fact, robots have played a significant role for positive interaction with children with ASD, by stimulating their social and cognitive skills. This work introduces a mobile socially-assistive robot, which was built for interaction with children with ASD, using non-linear control techniques for this interaction.

Keywords: Socially assistive robotics, mobile robot, autonomous control, autism.

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104 The Cardiac Diagnostic Prediction Applied to a Designed Holter

Authors: Leonardo Juan Ramírez López, Javier Oswaldo Rodriguez Velasquez

Abstract:

We have designed a Holter that measures the heart´s activity for over 24 hours, implemented a prediction methodology, and generate alarms as well as indicators to patients and treating physicians. Various diagnostic advances have been developed in clinical cardiology thanks to Holter implementation; however, their interpretation has largely been conditioned to clinical analysis and measurements adjusted to diverse population characteristics, thus turning it into a subjective examination. This, however, requires vast population studies to be validated that, in turn, have not achieved the ultimate goal: mortality prediction. Given this context, our Insight Research Group developed a mathematical methodology that assesses cardiac dynamics through entropy and probability, creating a numerical and geometrical attractor which allows quantifying the normalcy of chronic and acute disease as well as the evolution between such states, and our Tigum Research Group developed a holter device with 12 channels and advanced computer software. This has been shown in different contexts with 100% sensitivity and specificity results.

Keywords: Entropy, mathematical, prediction, cardiac, holter, attractor.

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103 EU, US and Tax Incentives: An Application

Authors: Carlos F. Liard-Muriente

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to shed light on the controversial subject of tax incentives to promote regional development. Although extensive research has been conducted, a review of the literature gives an inconclusive answer to whether economic incentives are effective. One reason is the fact that for some researchers “effective" means the significant location of new firms in targeted areas, while for others the creation of jobs regardless if new firms are arriving in a significant fashion. We present this dichotomy by analyzing a tax incentive program via both alternatives: location and job creation. The contribution of the paper is to inform policymakers about the potential opportunities and pitfalls when designing incentive strategies. This is particularly relevant, given that both the US and Europe have been promoting incentives as a tool for regional economic development.

Keywords: Employment, Foreign Investment, Tax Incentives.

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102 European Environmental Policy for Road Transport: Analysis of the Perverse Effects Generated and Proposals for a Good Practice Guide

Authors: Pedro Pablo Ramírez Sánchez, Alassane Ballé Ndiaye, Roberto Rendeiro Martín-Cejas

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The aim of this paper is to analyse the different environmental policies adopted in Europe for car emissions, to comment on some of the possible perverse effects generated and point out these policies which are considered more efficient under the environmental perspective. This paper is focused on passenger cars as this category is the most significant in road transport. The utility of this research lies in this being the first step or basis to improve and optimise actual policies. The methodology applied in this paper refers to a comparative analysis from a practical and theoretical point of view of European environmental policies in road transport. This work describes an overview of the road transport industry in Europe pointing out some relevant aspects such as the contribution of road transport to total emissions and the vehicle fleet in Europe. Additionally, we propose a brief practice guide with the combined policies in order to optimise their aim.

Keywords: Air quality, climate change, emission, environment, perverse effect, road transport, tax policy.

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101 Design and Study of a DC/DC Converter for High Power, 14.4 V and 300 A for Automotive Applications

Authors: Julio Cesar Lopes de Oliveira, Carlos Henrique Gonc¸alves Treviso

Abstract:

The shortage of the automotive market in relation to options for sources of high power car audio systems, led to development of this work. Thus, we developed a source with stabilized voltage with 4320 W effective power. Designed to the voltage of 14.4 V and a choice of two currents: 30 A load option in battery banks and 300 A at full load. This source can also be considered as a source of general use dedicated commercial with a simple control circuit in analog form based on discrete components. The assembly of power circuit uses a methodology for higher power than the initially stipulated.

Keywords: DC-DC power converters, converters, power convertion, pulse width modulation converters.

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100 Wireless Sensor Networks for Water Quality Monitoring: Prototype Design

Authors: Cesar Eduardo Hernández Curiel, Victor Hugo Benítez Baltazar, Jesús Horacio Pacheco Ramírez

Abstract:

This paper is devoted to present the advances in the design of a prototype that is able to supervise the complex behavior of water quality parameters such as pH and temperature, via a real-time monitoring system. The current water quality tests that are performed in government water quality institutions in Mexico are carried out in problematic locations and they require taking manual samples. The water samples are then taken to the institution laboratory for examination. In order to automate this process, a water quality monitoring system based on wireless sensor networks is proposed. The system consists of a sensor node which contains one pH sensor, one temperature sensor, a microcontroller, and a ZigBee radio, and a base station composed by a ZigBee radio and a PC. The progress in this investigation shows the development of a water quality monitoring system. Due to recent events that affected water quality in Mexico, the main motivation of this study is to address water quality monitoring systems, so in the near future, a more robust, affordable, and reliable system can be deployed.

Keywords: pH measurement, water quality monitoring, wireless sensor networks, ZigBee.

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99 Design of a Pulse Generator Based on a Programmable System-on-Chip (PSoC) for Ultrasonic Applications

Authors: Pedro Acevedo, Carlos Díaz, Mónica Vázquez, Joel Durán

Abstract:

This paper describes the design of a pulse generator based on the Programmable System-on-Chip (PSoC) module. In this module, using programmable logic is possible to implement different pulses which are required for ultrasonic applications, either in a single channel or multiple channels. This module can operate with programmable frequencies from 3-74 MHz; its programming may be versatile covering a wide range of ultrasonic applications. It is ideal for low-power ultrasonic applications where PZT or PVDF transducers are used.

Keywords: pulse generator, PVDF, Programmable System-on-Chip (PSoC), ultrasonic transducer

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98 A Performance Evaluation of Oscillation Based Test in Continuous Time Filters

Authors: Eduardo Romero, Marcelo Costamagna, Gabriela Peretti, Carlos Marqués

Abstract:

This work evaluates the ability of OBT for detecting parametric faults in continuous-time filters. To this end, we adopt two filters with quite different topologies as cases of study and a previously reported statistical fault model. In addition, we explore the behavior of the test schemes when a particular test condition is changed. The new data reported here, obtained from a fault simulation process, reveal a lower performance of OBT not observed in previous work using single-deviation faults, even under the change in the test condition.

Keywords: Testing, analog fault simulation, analog filter test, oscillation based test.

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97 Availability Strategy of Medical Information for Telemedicine Services

Authors: Rozo D. Juan Felipe, Ramírez L. Leonardo Juan, Puerta A. Gabriel Alberto

Abstract:

The telemedicine services require correct computing resource management to guarantee productivity and efficiency for medical and non-medical staff. The aim of this study was to examine web management strategies to ensure the availability of resources and services in telemedicine so as to provide medical information management with an accessible strategy. In addition, to evaluate the quality-of-service parameters, the followings were measured: delays, throughput, jitter, latency, available bandwidth, percent of access and denial of services based of web management performance map with profiles permissions and database management. Through 24 different test scenarios, the results show 100% in availability of medical information, in relation to access of medical staff to web services, and quality of service (QoS) of 99% because of network delay and performance of computer network. The findings of this study suggest that the proposed strategy of web management is an ideal solution to guarantee the availability, reliability, and accessibility of medical information. Finally, this strategy offers seven user profile used at telemedicine center of Bogota-Colombia keeping QoS parameters suitable to telemedicine services.

Keywords: Availability, medical information, QoS, strategy, telemedicine.

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96 Relocation of the Air Quality Monitoring Stations Network for Aburrá Valley Based on Local Climatic Zones

Authors: Carmen E. Zapata, José F. Jiménez, Mauricio Ramiréz, Natalia A. Cano

Abstract:

The majority of the urban areas in Latin America face the challenges associated with city planning and development problems, attributed to human, technical, and economical factors; therefore, we cannot ignore the issues related to climate change because the city modifies the natural landscape in a significant way transforming the radiation balance and heat content in the urbanized areas. These modifications provoke changes in the temperature distribution known as “the heat island effect”. According to this phenomenon, we have the need to conceive the urban planning based on climatological patterns that will assure its sustainable functioning, including the particularities of the climate variability. In the present study, it is identified the Local Climate Zones (LCZ) in the Metropolitan Area of the Aburrá Valley (Colombia) with the objective of relocate the air quality monitoring stations as a partial solution to the problem of how to measure representative air quality levels in a city for a local scale, but with instruments that measure in the microscale.

Keywords: Air quality, monitoring, local climatic zones, valley, monitoring stations.

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95 Particle Swarm Optimization and Quantum Particle Swarm Optimization to Multidimensional Function Approximation

Authors: Diogo Silva, Fadul Rodor, Carlos Moraes

Abstract:

This work compares the results of multidimensional function approximation using two algorithms: the classical Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and the Quantum Particle Swarm Optimization (QPSO). These algorithms were both tested on three functions - The Rosenbrock, the Rastrigin, and the sphere functions - with different characteristics by increasing their number of dimensions. As a result, this study shows that the higher the function space, i.e. the larger the function dimension, the more evident the advantages of using the QPSO method compared to the PSO method in terms of performance and number of necessary iterations to reach the stop criterion.

Keywords: PSO, QPSO, function approximation, AI, optimization, multidimensional functions.

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94 Acquiring Contour Following Behaviour in Robotics through Q-Learning and Image-based States

Authors: Carlos V. Regueiro, Jose E. Domenech, Roberto Iglesias, Jose L. Correa

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In this work a visual and reactive contour following behaviour is learned by reinforcement. With artificial vision the environment is perceived in 3D, and it is possible to avoid obstacles that are invisible to other sensors that are more common in mobile robotics. Reinforcement learning reduces the need for intervention in behaviour design, and simplifies its adjustment to the environment, the robot and the task. In order to facilitate its generalisation to other behaviours and to reduce the role of the designer, we propose a regular image-based codification of states. Even though this is much more difficult, our implementation converges and is robust. Results are presented with a Pioneer 2 AT on a Gazebo 3D simulator.

Keywords: Image-based State Codification, Mobile Robotics, ReinforcementLearning, Visual Behaviour.

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93 Information System Life Cycle: Applications in Construction and Manufacturing

Authors: Carlos J. Costa, Manuela Aparício

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In this paper, we present the information life cycle, and analyze the importance of managing the corporate application portfolio across this life cycle. The approach presented here does not correspond just to the extension of the traditional information system development life cycle. This approach is based in the generic life cycle employed in other contexts like manufacturing or marketing. In this paper it is proposed a model of an information system life cycle, supported in the assumption that a system has a limited life. But, this limited life may be extended. This model is also applied in several cases; being reported here two examples of the framework application in a construction enterprise, and in a manufacturing enterprise.

Keywords: Information systems/technology, informatio nsystems life cycle, organization engineering, information economics.

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92 Managing the Information System Life Cycle in Construction and Manufacturing

Authors: Carlos J. Costa, Manuela Aparício

Abstract:

In this paper we present the information life cycle and analyze the importance of managing the corporate application portfolio across this life cycle. The approach presented here corresponds not just to the extension of the traditional information system development life cycle. This approach is based in the generic life cycle. In this paper it is proposed a model of an information system life cycle, supported in the assumption that a system has a limited life. But, this limited life may be extended. This model is also applied in several cases; being reported here two examples of the framework application in a construction enterprise and in a manufacturing enterprise.

Keywords: Information systems/technology, information systems life cycle, organization engineering, information economics.

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91 Structural Damage Detection Using Sensors Optimally Located

Authors: Carlos Alberto Riveros, Edwin Fabián García, Javier Enrique Rivero

Abstract:

The measured data obtained from sensors in continuous monitoring of civil structures are mainly used for modal identification and damage detection. Therefore, when modal identification analysis is carried out the quality in the identification of the modes will highly influence the damage detection results. It is also widely recognized that the usefulness of the measured data used for modal identification and damage detection is significantly influenced by the number and locations of sensors. The objective of this study is the numerical implementation of two widely known optimum sensor placement methods in beam-like structures.

Keywords: Optimum sensor placement, structural damage detection, modal identification, beam-like structures.

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90 Identifying the Objectives of Outsourcing Logistics Services as a Basis for Measuring Its Financial and Operational Performance

Authors: Carlos Sanchís-Pedregosa, María del Mar González-Zamora, José A. D. Machuca

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Logistics outsourcing is a growing trend and measuring its performance, a challenge. It must be consistent with the objectives set for logistics outsourcing, but we have found no objective-based performance measurement system. We have conducted a comprehensive review of the specialist literature to cover this gap, which has led us to identify and define these objectives. The outcome is that we have obtained a list of the most relevant objectives and their descriptions. This will enable us to analyse in a future study whether the indicators used for measuring logistics outsourcing performance are consistent with the objectives pursued with the outsourcing. If this is not the case, a proposal will be made for a set of financial and operational indicators to measure performance in logistics outsourcing that take the goals being pursued into account.

Keywords: Outsourcing, Performance measurement, Logistics, Objectives, Indicators

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89 A Tubular Electrode for Radiofrequency Ablation Therapy

Authors: Carlos L. Antunes, Tony R. Almeida, Nélia Raposeiro, Belarmino Gonçalves, Paulo Almeida, André Antunes

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In the last two decades radiofrequency ablation (RFA) has been considered a promising medical procedure for the treatment of primary and secondary malignancies. However, the needle-based electrodes so far developed for this kind of treatment are not suitable for the thermal ablation of tumors located in hollow organs like esophagus, colon or bile duct. In this work a tubular electrode solution is presented. Numerical and experimental analyses were performed to characterize the volume of the lesion induced. Results show that this kind of electrode is a feasible solution and numerical simulation might provide a tool for planning RFA procedure with some accuracy.

Keywords: 3D modeling, cancer, medical therapy, radiofrequency ablation.

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88 Using Perspective Schemata to Model the ETL Process

Authors: Valeria M. Pequeno, Joao Carlos G. M. Pires

Abstract:

Data Warehouses (DWs) are repositories which contain the unified history of an enterprise for decision support. The data must be Extracted from information sources, Transformed and integrated to be Loaded (ETL) into the DW, using ETL tools. These tools focus on data movement, where the models are only used as a means to this aim. Under a conceptual viewpoint, the authors want to innovate the ETL process in two ways: 1) to make clear compatibility between models in a declarative fashion, using correspondence assertions and 2) to identify the instances of different sources that represent the same entity in the real-world. This paper presents the overview of the proposed framework to model the ETL process, which is based on the use of a reference model and perspective schemata. This approach provides the designer with a better understanding of the semantic associated with the ETL process.

Keywords: conceptual data model, correspondence assertions, data warehouse, data integration, ETL process, object relational database.

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87 Intellectual Capital Disclosure: Profiles of Spanish Public Universities

Authors: Yolanda Ramírez, Ángel Tejada, Agustín Baidez

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In the higher education setting, there is a current trend in society toward greater openness and transparency. The economic, social and political changes that have occurred in recent years in public sector universities (particularly the New Public Management, the Bologna Process and the emergence of the “third mission”) call for a wider disclosure of value created by universities to support fundraising activities, to ensure accountability in the use of public funds and the outcomes of research and teaching, as well as close relationships with industries and territories. The paper has two purposes: 1) to explore the intellectual capital (IC) disclosure in Spanish universities through their websites, and 2) to identify university profiles. This study applies a content analysis to analyze the institutional websites of Spanish public universities and a cluster analysis. The analysis reveals that Spanish universities’ website content usually relates to human capital, while structural and relational capitals are less widely disclosed. Our research identifies three behavioral profiles of Spanish universities with regard to the online disclosure of IC (universities more proactive, universities less proactive and universities adopt a middle position in this regard. The results can serve as encouragement to university managers to enhance online IC disclosure to meet the information needs of university stakeholders.

Keywords: Universities, intellectual capital, disclosure, Internet.

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86 Absent Theaters: A Virtual Reconstruction from Memories

Authors: P. Castillo Muñoz, A. Lara Ramírez

Abstract:

Absent Theaters is a project that virtually reconstructs three theaters that existed in the twentieth century, demolished in the city of Medellin, Colombia: Circo España, Bolívar, and Junín. Virtual reconstruction is used as an excuse to talk with those who lived in their childhood and youth cultural spaces that formed a whole generation. Around 100 people who witnessed these theaters were interviewed. The means used to perform the oral history work was the virtual reconstruction of the interior of the theaters that were presented to the interviewees through the Virtual Reality glasses. The voices of people between 60 and 103 years old were used to generate a transmission of knowledge to the new generations about the importance of theaters as essential places for the city, as spaces generating social relations and knowledge of other cultures. Oral stories about events, the historical and social context of the city, were mixed with archive images and animations of the architectural transformations of these places. Oral stories about events, the historical and social context of the city, were mixed with archive images and animations of the architectural transformations of these places, with the purpose of compiling a collective discourse around cultural activities, heritage, and memory of Medellin.

Keywords: Culture, heritage, oral history, theaters, virtual reality.

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85 An Ergonomic Handle Design for Instruments in Laparoscopic Surgery

Authors: Ramon Sancibrian, Carlos Redondo-Figuero, Maria C. Gutierrez-Diez, Esther G. Sarabia, Maria A. Benito-Gonzalez, Jose C. Manuel-Palazuelos

Abstract:

In this paper, the design and evaluation of a handle for laparoscopic surgery is presented. The design of the handle is based on ergonomic principles and tries to avoid awkward postures for surgeons. The handle combines the so-called power-grip and accurate-grip in order to provide strength and accuracy in the performance of surgery. The handle is tested using both objective and subjective approaches. The objective approach uses motion capture techniques to obtain the angles of forearm, arm, wrist and hand. The muscular effort is obtained with electromyography electrodes. On the other hand, a subjective survey has been carried out using questionnaires. Results confirm that the handle is preferred by the majority of the surgeons.

Keywords: Laparoscopic Surgery, Ergonomics, Mechanical Design, Biomechanics.

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84 The Use Management of the Knowledge Management and the Information Technologies in the Competitive Strategy of a Self-Propelling Industry

Authors: Guerrero Ramírez Sandra, Ramos Salinas Norma Maricela, Muriel Amezcua Vanesa

Abstract:

This article presents the beginning of a wider study that intends to demonstrate how within organizations of the automotive industry from the city of Querétaro. Knowledge management and technological management are required, as well as people’s initiative and the interaction embedded at the interior of it, with the appropriate environment that facilitates information conversion with wide information technologies management (ITM) range. A company was identified for the pilot study of this research, where descriptive and inferential research information was obtained. The results of the pilot suggest that some respondents did noted entity the knowledge management topic, even if staffs have access to information technology (IT) that serve to enhance access to knowledge (through internet, email, databases, external and internal company personnel, suppliers, customers and competitors) data, this implicates that there are Knowledge Management (KM) problems. The data shows that academically well-prepared organizations normally do not recognize the importance of knowledge in the business, nor in the implementation of it, which at the end is a great influence on how to manage it, so that it should guide the company to greater in sight towards a competitive strategy search, given that the company has an excellent technological infrastructure and KM was not exploited. Cultural diversity is another factor that was observed by the staff.

Keywords: Knowledge management, technological knowledge management, technology information management.

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83 The Design Process of an Interactive Seat for Improving Workplace Productivity

Authors: Carlos Ferreira, Paulo Freitas, Valentim Freitas

Abstract:

Creative industries’ workers are becoming more prominent as countries move towards intellectual-based economies. Consequently, the nature and essence of the workplace needs to be reconfigured so that creativity and productivity can be better promoted at these spaces. Using a multidisciplinary approach and a user-centered methodology, combining product design, electronic engineering, software and human-computer interaction, we have designed and developed a new seat that uses embedded sensors and actuators to increase the overall well-being of its users, their productivity and their creativity. Our contribution focuses on the parameters that most affect the user’s work on these kinds of spaces, which are, according to our study, noise and temperature. We describe the design process for a new interactive seat targeted at improving workspace productivity.

Keywords: Human-computer interaction, usability, user interface, creativity, ergonomics.

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82 6DSpaces: Multisensory Interactive Installations

Authors: Pedro Campos, Miguel Campos, Carlos Ferreira

Abstract:

Interactive installations for public spaces are a particular kind of interactive systems, the design of which has been the subject of several research studies. Sensor-based applications are becoming increasingly popular, but the human-computer interaction community is still far from reaching sound, effective large-scale interactive installations for public spaces. The 6DSpaces project is described in this paper as a research approach based on studying the role of multisensory interactivity and how it can be effectively used to approach people to digital, scientific contents. The design of an entire scientific exhibition is described and the result was evaluated in the real world context of a Science Centre. Conclusions bring insight into how the human-computer interaction should be designed in order to maximize the overall experience.

Keywords: interaction design, human-computer interaction, multimedia, multisensory installations

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81 Airport Investment Risk Assessment under Uncertainty

Authors: Elena M. Capitanul, Carlos A. Nunes Cosenza, Walid El Moudani, Felix Mora Camino

Abstract:

The construction of a new airport or the extension of an existing one requires massive investments and many times public private partnerships were considered in order to make feasible such projects. One characteristic of these projects is uncertainty with respect to financial and environmental impacts on the medium to long term. Another one is the multistage nature of these types of projects. While many airport development projects have been a success, some others have turned into a nightmare for their promoters. This communication puts forward a new approach for airport investment risk assessment. The approach takes explicitly into account the degree of uncertainty in activity levels prediction and proposes milestones for the different stages of the project for minimizing risk. Uncertainty is represented through fuzzy dual theory and risk management is performed using dynamic programming. An illustration of the proposed approach is provided.

Keywords: Airports, fuzzy logic, risk, uncertainty.

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