Search results for: Average rate of change

Authors: Nedeljko Cvejic, Tapio Sepp

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A study of the obtainable watermark data rate for information hiding algorithms is presented in this paper. As the perceptual entropy for wideband monophonic audio signals is in the range of four to five bits per sample, a significant amount of additional information can be inserted into signal without causing any perceptual distortion. Experimental results showed that transform domain watermark embedding outperforms considerably watermark embedding in time domain and that signal decompositions with a high gain of transform coding, like the wavelet transform, are the most suitable for high data rate information hiding. Keywords?Digital watermarking, information hiding, audio watermarking, watermark data rate.

Keywords: Digital watermarking, information hiding, audio watermarking, watermark data rate.

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Authors: N. Katemee, T. Mayureesawan

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This paper developed the c-Chart based on a Zero- Inflated Poisson (ZIP) processes that approximated by a geometric distribution with parameter p. The p estimated that fit for ZIP distribution used in calculated the mean, median, and variance of geometric distribution for constructed the c-Chart by three difference methods. For cg-Chart, developed c-Chart by used the mean and variance of the geometric distribution constructed control limits. For cmg-Chart, the mean used for constructed the control limits. The cme- Chart, developed control limits of c-Chart from median and variance values of geometric distribution. The performance of charts considered from the Average Run Length and Average Coverage Probability. We found that for an in-control process, the cg-Chart is superior for low level of mean at all level of proportion zero. For an out-of-control process, the cmg-Chart and cme-Chart are the best for mean = 2, 3 and 4 at all level of parameter.

Keywords: average coverage probability, average run length, geometric distribution, zero-inflated poisson distribution

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Authors: M. Vivodík, Ž. Balážová, Z. Gálová

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The aim of this work was to detect genetic variability among the set of 40 castor genotypes using 8 RAPD markers. Amplification of genomic DNA of 40 genotypes, using RAPD analysis, yielded in 66 fragments, with an average of 8.25 polymorphic fragments per primer. Number of amplified fragments ranged from 3 to 13, with the size of amplicons ranging from 100 to 1200 bp. Values of the polymorphic information content (PIC) value ranged from 0.556 to 0.895 with an average of 0.784 and diversity index (DI) value ranged from 0.621 to 0.896 with an average of 0.798. The dendrogram based on hierarchical cluster analysis using UPGMA algorithm was prepared and analyzed genotypes were grouped into two main clusters and only two genotypes could not be distinguished. Knowledge on the genetic diversity of castor can be used for future breeding programs for increased oil production for industrial uses.

Keywords: Dendrogram, polymorphism, RAPD technique, Ricinus communis L.

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Authors: S. Qaedi, S. Seyedtabaii

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Non-Destructive evaluation of in-service power transformer condition is necessary for avoiding catastrophic failures. Dissolved Gas Analysis (DGA) is one of the important methods. Traditional, statistical and intelligent DGA approaches have been adopted for accurate classification of incipient fault sources. Unfortunately, there are not often enough faulty patterns required for sufficient training of intelligent systems. By bootstrapping the shortcoming is expected to be alleviated and algorithms with better classification success rates to be obtained. In this paper the performance of an artificial neural network, K-Nearest Neighbour and support vector machine methods using bootstrapped data are detailed and shown that while the success rate of the ANN algorithms improves remarkably, the outcome of the others do not benefit so much from the provided enlarged data space. For assessment, two databases are employed: IEC TC10 and a dataset collected from reported data in papers. High average test success rate well exhibits the remarkable outcome.

Keywords: Dissolved gas analysis, Transformer incipient fault, Artificial Neural Network, Support Vector Machine (SVM), KNearest Neighbor (KNN)

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Authors: M. Adamczak-Retecka, O. Hołub-Śniadach

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Dangerous of climate change is now global problem and as such has a strategic priority also for the European Union. Europe and European citizens try to do their best to cut greenhouse gas emissions, moreover they substantially encourage other nations and regions to follow the same way. The European Commission and a number of Member States have developed adaptation strategies in order to help strengthen EU's resilience to the inevitable impacts of climate change. The EU has long been a driving force in international negotiations on climate change and was instrumental in the development of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. As the world's leading donor of development aid, the EU also provides substantial funding to help developing countries tackle climate change problem. Global warming influences human health, biodiversity, ecosystems but also many social and economic sectors. The aim of this paper is to focus on impact of claimant change on for food security. Food security challenges are directly related to globalization, climate change. It means that current and future food policy is exposed to all cross-cutting and that must be linked with environmental and climate targets, which supposed to be achieved. In the 7th EAP —The new general Union Environment Action Program to 2020, called “Living well, within the limits of our planet” EU has agreed to step up its efforts to protect natural capital, stimulate resource efficient, low carbon growth and innovation, and safeguard people’s health and wellbeing– while respecting the Earth’s natural limits.

Keywords: Climate change, EU law, food policy, food security.

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Authors: Jinrui Ren, Li Wu

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Anthropogenic activities and changes of underlying surface affect the temporal and spatial distribution of surface temperature in Kunming. Taking Kunming city as the research area, the surface temperature in 2000, 2010 and 2020 as the research object, using ENVI 5.3 and ArcGIS 10.8 as auxiliary tools, and based on the spatial autocorrelation method, this paper devoted to exploring the interactions among the changes of surface temperature, urban heat island effect and land use type, so as to provide theoretical basis and scientific basis for mitigating climate change. The results showed that: (1) The heat island effect was obvious in Kunming City, the high temperature area increased from 604 km2 in 2000 to 1269 km2 in 2020, and the sub-high temperature area reached 1099 km2 in 2020; (2) In terms of space, the spatial distribution of LST was significantly different with the change of underlying surface. The high temperature zone extended in three directions: south, north and east. The overall spatial distribution pattern of LST was high in the east and low in the west. (3) The inter-annual fluctuation of land surface temperature (LST) was large, and the growth rate was faster, from 2000 to 2010. The lowest temperature in 2000 was 13.45 ℃, which raised to 19.71 ℃ in 2010, and the temperature difference in 10 years was 6.26 ℃. (4) The land use/land cover type has a strong effect on the change of LST: the man-made land made a great contribution to the increase of LST, followed by grassland and farmland, while forest and water have a significant cooling effect on LST. To sum up, the variation of surface temperature in Kunming is the result of the interactions of human activities and climate change.

Keywords: Surface temperature, urban heat island effect, land use cover type, spatiotemporal variation.

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Authors: Delphine Mukaneza, Lin Qiao, Wang Pengxin, Li Yan, Chen Yingyi

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Human activities on land use make the land-cover gradually change or transit. In this study, we examined the use of Landsat TM data to detect the land use change of Kigali between 1987 and 2009 using remote sensing techniques and analysis of data using ENVI and ArcGIS, a GIS software. Six different categories of land use were distinguished: bare soil, built up land, wetland, water, vegetation, and others. With remote sensing techniques, we analyzed land use data in 1987, 1999 and 2009, changed areas were found and a dynamic situation of land use in Kigali city was found during the 22 years studied. According to relevant Landsat data, the research focused on land use change in accordance with the role of remote sensing in the process of urbanization. The result of the work has shown the rapid increase of built up land between 1987 and 1999 and a big decrease of vegetation caused by the rebuild of the city after the 1994 genocide, while in the period of 1999 to 2009 there was a reduction in built up land and vegetation, after the authority of Kigali city established, a Master Plan where all constructions which were not in the range of the master Plan were destroyed. Rwanda's capital, Kigali City, through the expansion of the urban area, it is increasing the internal employment rate and attracts business investors and the service sector to improve their economy, which will increase the population growth and provide a better life. The overall planning of the city of Kigali considers the environment, land use, infrastructure, cultural and socio-economic factors, the economic development and population forecast, urban development, and constraints specification. To achieve the above purpose, the Government has set for the overall planning of city Kigali, different stages of the detailed description of the design, strategy and action plan that would guide Kigali planners and members of the public in the future to have more detailed regional plans and practical measures. Thus, land use change is significantly the performance of Kigali active human area, which plays an important role for the country to take certain decisions. Another area to take into account is the natural situation of Kigali city. Agriculture in the region does not occupy a dominant position, and with the population growth and socio-economic development, the construction area will gradually rise and speed up the process of urbanization. Thus, as a developing country, Rwanda's population continues to grow and there is low rate of utilization of land, where urbanization remains low. As mentioned earlier, the 1994 genocide massacres, population growth and urbanization processes, have been the factors driving the dramatic changes in land use. The focus on further research would be on analysis of Rwanda’s natural resources, social and economic factors that could be, the driving force of land use change.

Keywords: Land use change, urbanization, Kigali City, Landsat.

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Authors: Ahmad Sharif Ahmadi, Yoshitaka Kajita

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With massive population expansion and fast economic development in last decade, urban land has increasingly expanded and formed high informal development territory in Kabul city. This paper investigates integrated urbanization trends in Kabul city since the formation of the basic structure of the present city using GIS and remote sensing. This study explores the spatial and temporal difference of urban land expansion and land use categories among different time intervals, 1964-1978 and 1978-2008 from 1964 to 2008 in Kabul city. Furthermore, the goal of this paper is to understand the extent of urban land expansion and the factors driving urban land expansion in Kabul city. Many factors like population expansion, the return of refugees from neighboring countries and significant economic growth of the city affected urban land expansion. Across all the study area urban land expansion rate, population expansion rate and economic growth rate have been compared to analyze the relationship of driving forces with urban land expansion. Based on urban land change data detected by interpreting land use maps, it was found that in the entire study area the urban territory has been expanded by 14 times between 1964 and 2008.

Keywords: GIS, Kabul city, land use, urban land expansion, urbanization.

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Authors: Shih-Ching Lo, Hsieh-Chu Huang

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Mostly, pedestrian-car accidents occurred at a signalized interaction is because pedestrians cannot across the intersection safely within the green light. From the viewpoint of pedestrian, there might have two reasons. The first one is pedestrians cannot speed up to across the intersection, such as the elders. The other reason is pedestrians do not sense that the signal phase is going to change and their right-of-way is going to lose. Developing signal logic to protect pedestrian, who is crossing an intersection is the first purpose of this study. Another purpose of this study is improving the reliability and reduce delay of public transportation service. Therefore, bus preemption is also considered in the designed signal logic. In this study, the traffic data of the intersection of Chong-Qing North Road and Min-Zu West Road, Taipei, Taiwan, is employed to calibrate and validate the signal logic by simulation. VISSIM 5.20, which is a microscopic traffic simulation software, is employed to simulate the signal logic. From the simulated results, the signal logic presented in this study can protect pedestrians crossing the intersection successfully. The design of bus preemption can reduce the average delay. However, the pedestrian safety and bus preemptive signal will influence the average delay of cars largely. Thus, whether applying the pedestrian safety and bus preemption signal logic to an isolated intersection or not should be evaluated carefully.

Keywords: vulnerable road user, bus preemption, signal design.

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Authors: T. Boonkang, C. Santhaweesuk, N. Pianthong, P. Neeramon, A. Phimhlo, S. Bangphan

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The objective of this research was to apply metakaolin from northeast of Thailand as a binder in the casting process of rice polishing cylinder in replacement of the imported calcined magnesite cement and to reduce the production cost of the cylinder. Metakaolin was obtained from three different regions (Udon Thani, Nakhon Phanom, and Ubon Ratchathani). The design of experiment analysis using the MINITAB Release 14 based on the compressive strength and tensile strength testing was conducted. According to the analysis results, it was found that the optimal proportions were calcined magnesite cement: metakaolin from Udon Thani, Nakhon Phanom and Ubon Ratchathani equal to 63:37, 71:29, and 100:0, respectively. When used this formula to cast the cylinder and test the rice milling, it was found that the average broken rice percent was 32.52 and 38.29 for the cylinder contained the metakaolin from Udon Thani and Nakhon Phanom, respectively, which implied that the cylinder which contained the metakaolin from Udon Thani has higher efficiency than the cylinder which contained the metakaolin from Nakhon Phanom at 0.05 level of statistical significance. Whereas, the average wear rate of cylinder from both resources were 7.27 and 6.53 g/h, respectively.

Keywords: Binder, casting, metakaolin, rice polishing cylinder.

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Authors: F. Husem, M. E. Turan, Y. Sun, H. Ahlatci, I. Tozlu

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Residual stress and fatigue crack growth rates are important to determine mechanical behavior of rails. This study aims to make relationship between residual stress and fatigue crack growth values in rails. For this purpose, three R260 quality rails (0.6-0.8% C, 0.6-1.25 Mn) were chosen. Residual stress of samples was measured by cutting method that is related in railway standard. Then samples were machined for fatigue crack growth test and analyze was completed according to the ASTM E647 standard which gives information about parameters of rails for this test. Microstructure characterizations were examined by Light Optic Microscope (LOM). The results showed that residual stress change with fatigue crack growth rate. The sample has highest residual stress exhibits highest crack growth rate and pearlitic structure can be seen clearly for all samples by microstructure analyze.

Keywords: Residual stress, fatigue crack growth, R260, LOM, ASTM E647.

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Authors: Emanuele Stomeo, Tatiana Kalganova, Cyrille Lambert

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Evolvable hardware (EHW) is a developing field that applies evolutionary algorithm (EA) to automatically design circuits, antennas, robot controllers etc. A lot of research has been done in this area and several different EAs have been introduced to tackle numerous problems, as scalability, evolvability etc. However every time a specific EA is chosen for solving a particular task, all its components, such as population size, initialization, selection mechanism, mutation rate, and genetic operators, should be selected in order to achieve the best results. In the last three decade the selection of the right parameters for the EA-s components for solving different “test-problems" has been investigated. In this paper the behaviour of mutation rate for designing logic circuits, which has not been done before, has been deeply analyzed. The mutation rate for an EHW system modifies the number of inputs of each logic gates, the functionality (for example from AND to NOR) and the connectivity between logic gates. The behaviour of the mutation has been analyzed based on the number of generations, genotype redundancy and number of logic gates for the evolved circuits. The experimental results found provide the behaviour of the mutation rate during evolution for the design and optimization of simple logic circuits. The experimental results propose the best mutation rate to be used for designing combinational logic circuits. The research presented is particular important for those who would like to implement a dynamic mutation rate inside the evolutionary algorithm for evolving digital circuits. The researches on the mutation rate during the last 40 years are also summarized.

Keywords: Design of logic circuit, evolutionary computation, evolvable hardware, mutation rate.

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Authors: Rupesh K. Gopal, Saroj K. Meher

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In this report we present a rule-based approach to detect anomalous telephone calls. The method described here uses subscriber usage CDR (call detail record) data sampled over two observation periods: study period and test period. The study period contains call records of customers- non-anomalous behaviour. Customers are first grouped according to their similar usage behaviour (like, average number of local calls per week, etc). For customers in each group, we develop a probabilistic model to describe their usage. Next, we use maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to estimate the parameters of the calling behaviour. Then we determine thresholds by calculating acceptable change within a group. MLE is used on the data in the test period to estimate the parameters of the calling behaviour. These parameters are compared against thresholds. Any deviation beyond the threshold is used to raise an alarm. This method has the advantage of identifying local anomalies as compared to techniques which identify global anomalies. The method is tested for 90 days of study data and 10 days of test data of telecom customers. For medium to large deviations in the data in test window, the method is able to identify 90% of anomalous usage with less than 1% false alarm rate.

Keywords: Subscription fraud, fraud detection, anomalydetection, maximum likelihood estimation, rule based systems.

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Authors: Abdelgawad, Salah El-Tahawy

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This paper aimed to establish econometrical equation models for the Nile delta region in Egypt, which will represent a basement for future predictions of Lumpy skin disease outbreaks and its pathway in relation to climate change. Data of lumpy skin disease (LSD) outbreaks were collected from the cattle farms located in the provinces representing the Nile delta region during 1 January, 2015 to December, 2015. The obtained results indicated that there was a significant association between the degree of the LSD outbreaks and the investigated climate factors (temperature, wind speed, and humidity) and the outbreaks peaked during the months of June, July, and August and gradually decreased to the lowest rate in January, February, and December. The model obtained depicted that the increment of these climate factors were associated with evidently increment on LSD outbreaks on the Nile Delta of Egypt. The model validation process was done by the root mean square error (RMSE) and means bias (MB) which compared the number of LSD outbreaks expected with the number of observed outbreaks and estimated the confidence level of the model. The value of RMSE was 1.38% and MB was 99.50% confirming that this established model described the current association between the LSD outbreaks and the change on climate factors and also can be used as a base for predicting the of LSD outbreaks depending on the climatic change on the future.

Keywords: LSD, climate factors, econometric models, Nile Delta.

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Authors: Markéta Slováková

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The largest share of policy and money within the European Union goes to agriculture. The Union’s Common Agricultural Policy has undergone several transformations in the last five decades, with the main change taking place in the 1990s. This change influenced agriculture in the Czech Republic, inasmuch as the fledgling republic was preparing to join the European Union and adopt its policies. In the 1990s, Czech agriculture passed from a centrally planned economy to a market economy and subsequently adopted the terms of the Common Agricultural Policy. The Czech Republic is also characterized by a significant diversification of landscape sphere. Agricultural entrepreneurs in the Czech Republic are still not accustomed to the possibility of grants from the European Union. They focus rather on national or regional subsidies. Only half of all agricultural entrepreneurs in the Czech Republic use European subsidies. This article focuses on the introduction of the Common Agricultural Policy to the Czech Republic and its subsequent influence on Czech agriculture. It is demonstrated through the implementation rate of the CAP in the EU Member States and a closer focus on Czech integration.

Keywords: Common Agricultural Policy, Agriculture, European Union, Transformation.

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Authors: V. Churkin, M. Lopatin

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The purpose of the paper is to estimate the US small wind turbines market potential and forecast the small wind turbines sales in the US. The forecasting method is based on the application of the Bass model and the generalized Bass model of innovations diffusion under replacement purchases. In the work an exponential distribution is used for modeling of replacement purchases. Only one parameter of such distribution is determined by average lifetime of small wind turbines. The identification of the model parameters is based on nonlinear regression analysis on the basis of the annual sales statistics which has been published by the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) since 2001 up to 2012. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) without account of price changes is 57080 (confidence interval from 49294 to 64866 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 62402 (confidence interval from 54154 to 70648 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 90,7%, while in the second - 91,8%. The effect of the wind turbines price changes on their sales was estimated using generalized Bass model. This required a price forecast. To do this, the polynomial regression function, which is based on the Berkeley Lab statistics, was used. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) in that case is 42542 (confidence interval from 32863 to 52221 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 47426 (confidence interval from 36092 to 58760 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 95,3%, while in the second – 95,3%.

Keywords: Bass model, generalized Bass model, replacement purchases, sales forecasting of innovations, statistics of sales of small wind turbines in the United States.

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Authors: M. Csete, G. Szendrö

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The last Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, stating that the greatest risk in climate change affects sustainability is now widely known and accepted. However, it has not provoked substantial reaction and attention in Hungary, while international and national efforts have also not achieved expected results so far. Still, there are numerous examples on different levels (national, regional, local, household) making considerable progress in limiting their own emissions and making steps toward mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. The local level is exceptionally important in sustainability adaptation, as local communities are often able to adapt more flexibly to changes in the natural environment.The aim of this paper is to attempt a review of the national climate policy and the local climate change strategies in Hungary considering sustainable development.

Keywords: adaptation, climate policy, mitigation, localsustainability.

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Authors: Madina Hamiane, Amina Khunji

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Detecting changes in multiple images of the same scene has recently seen increased interest due to the many contemporary applications including smart security systems, smart homes, remote sensing, surveillance, medical diagnosis, weather forecasting, speed and distance measurement, post-disaster forensics and much more. These applications differ in the scale, nature, and speed of change. This paper presents an application of image processing techniques to implement a real-time change detection system. Change is identified by comparing the RGB representation of two consecutive frames captured in real-time. The detection threshold can be controlled to account for various luminance levels. The comparison result is passed through a filter before decision making to reduce false positives, especially at lower luminance conditions. The system is implemented with a MATLAB Graphical User interface with several controls to manage its operation and performance.

Keywords: Image change detection, Image processing, image filtering, thresholding, B/W quantization.

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Authors: Omer Farooq, Salman Ahmed Khan, Sadaf Khalid

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Modern day stock markets have almost entirely became automated. Even though it means increased profits for the investors by algorithms acting upon the slightest price change in order of microseconds, it also has given birth to many ethical dilemmas in the sense that slightest mistake can cause people to lose all of their livelihoods. This paper reviews one such event that happened on May 06, 2010 in which $1 trillion dollars disappeared from the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We are going to discuss its various aspects and the ethical dilemmas that have arisen due to it.

Keywords: Flash Crash, Market Crash, Stock Market, Stock Market Crash.

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Authors: Naji Ali Albakay, Abdulrahman Alothaim, Isa Barshushi

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The most common quadrature amplitude modulator (QAM) applies two Mach-Zehnder Modulators (MZM) and one phase shifter to generate high order modulation format. The bias of MZM changes over time due to temperature, vibration, and aging factors. The change in the biasing causes distortion to the generated QAM signal which leads to deterioration of bit error rate (BER) performance. Therefore, it is critical to be able to lock MZM’s Q point to the required operating point for good performance. We propose a technique for automatic bias control (ABC) of QAM transmitter using BER measurements and gradient descent optimization algorithm. The proposed technique is attractive because it uses the pertinent metric, BER, which compensates for bias drifting independently from other system variations such as laser source output power. The proposed scheme performance and its operating principles are simulated using OptiSystem simulation software for 4-QAM and 16-QAM transmitters.

Keywords: Automatic bias control, optical fiber communication, optical modulation, optical devices.

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Authors: Bandula-Heva, T., Dhanasekar, M.

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True stress-strain curve of railhead steel is required to investigate the behaviour of railhead under wheel loading through elasto-plastic Finite Element (FE) analysis. To reduce the rate of wear, the railhead material is hardened through annealing and quenching. The Australian standard rail sections are not fully hardened and hence suffer from non-uniform distribution of the material property; usage of average properties in the FE modelling can potentially induce error in the predicted plastic strains. Coupons obtained at varying depths of the railhead were, therefore, tested under axial tension and the strains were measured using strain gauges as well as an image analysis technique, known as the Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV). The head hardened steel exhibit existence of three distinct zones of yield strength; the yield strength as the ratio of the average yield strength provided in the standard (σyr=780MPa) and the corresponding depth as the ratio of the head hardened zone along the axis of symmetry are as follows: (1.17 σyr, 20%), (1.06 σyr, 20%-80%) and (0.71 σyr, > 80%). The stress-strain curves exhibit limited plastic zone with fracture occurring at strain less than 0.1.

Keywords: Stress-Strain Curve, Tensile Test, Particle Image Velocimetry, Railhead Metal Properties

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Authors: Tahseen A. Jilani, S. M. Aqil Burney, C. Ardil

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In this paper, we have presented a new multivariate fuzzy time series forecasting method. This method assumes mfactors with one main factor of interest. History of past three years is used for making new forecasts. This new method is applied in forecasting total number of car accidents in Belgium using four secondary factors. We also make comparison of our proposed method with existing methods of fuzzy time series forecasting. Experimentally, it is shown that our proposed method perform better than existing fuzzy time series forecasting methods. Practically, actuaries are interested in analysis of the patterns of causalities in road accidents. Thus using fuzzy time series, actuaries can define fuzzy premium and fuzzy underwriting of car insurance and life insurance for car insurance. National Institute of Statistics, Belgium provides region of risk classification for each road. Thus using this risk classification, we can predict premium rate and underwriting of insurance policy holders.

Keywords: Average forecasting error rate (AFER), Fuzziness offuzzy sets Fuzzy, If-Then rules, Multivariate fuzzy time series.

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Authors: Weishou Shen, Dong Liu, Di Ji, Haoyun Shen, Naifeng Lin

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Based on the field investigation and long term remote sensing data, the dynamics of the alpine wetland in the river basin and their response to climate change were studied. Results showed the alpine wetlands accounted for 3.73% of total basin in 2010. Lake and river appeared an increasing trend in the past 30 years, with an increase of 34.36 % and 24.57%. However, swamp exhibited a tendency of decreasing with 233.74 km2. Annual average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation in the river basin all exhibited an increasing trend, whereas relative humidity exhibited a decreasing trend. Ice and snow melting are main reasons of lake and river area enhancement and swamp area descend. There existed 91.78%-97.86% of reduced swamp converted into lakes on the basis of remote sensing image interpretation. China-s government policy of implementing development in the river basin is the major driving force of artificial wetland growth.

Keywords: alpine wetland dynamics, climate change, Yarlung Zangbo River basin

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Authors: Y. Huang, Q. J. Tian, L. T. Du, J. Liu, S. S. Li

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Understanding how precipitation inter-annually changes and its implication in agricultural drought and production change in winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) growth season is critical for crop production in China. MODIS Temperature-Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) and daily mean precipitation time series for the main growth season(Feb. to May) of winter wheat from 2000 to 2010 were used to analyze the distribution of trends of precipitation, agricultural drought and winter wheat yield change respectively, and relationships between them in North China region(Huang-huai-hai region, HHH region), China. The results indicated that the trend of precipitation in HHH region past 11 years was increasing, which had induced generally corresponding decreasing trend of agricultural drought and increasing trend of wheat yield, while the trend of drought was spatially diverse. The study could provide a basis for agricultural drought research during winter wheat season in HHH region under the ground of climate change.

Keywords: drought, MODIS, precipitation change, TVDI, winter wheat production

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Authors: Ab. Rashid M.F.F., Gan S.Y., Muhammad N.Y.

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Surface roughness (Ra) is one of the most important requirements in machining process. In order to obtain better surface roughness, the proper setting of cutting parameters is crucial before the process take place. This research presents the development of mathematical model for surface roughness prediction before milling process in order to evaluate the fitness of machining parameters; spindle speed, feed rate and depth of cut. 84 samples were run in this study by using FANUC CNC Milling α-Τ14ιE. Those samples were randomly divided into two data sets- the training sets (m=60) and testing sets(m=24). ANOVA analysis showed that at least one of the population regression coefficients was not zero. Multiple Regression Method was used to determine the correlation between a criterion variable and a combination of predictor variables. It was established that the surface roughness is most influenced by the feed rate. By using Multiple Regression Method equation, the average percentage deviation of the testing set was 9.8% and 9.7% for training data set. This showed that the statistical model could predict the surface roughness with about 90.2% accuracy of the testing data set and 90.3% accuracy of the training data set.

Keywords: Surface roughness, regression analysis.

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Authors: Eric Kojo Wu Aikins

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This paper contributes to the debate on the proximate causes of climate change. Also, it discusses the impact of the global temperature increases since the beginning of the twentieth century and the effectiveness of climate change models in isolating the primary cause (anthropogenic influences or natural variability in temperature) of the observed temperature increases that occurred within this period. The paper argues that if climate scientist and policymakers ignore the anthropogenic influence (greenhouse gases) on global warming on the pretense of lack of agreement among various climate models and their inability to account for all the necessary factors of global warming at all levels the current efforts of greenhouse emissions control and global warming as a whole could be exacerbated.

Keywords: Anthropogenic Effects, Arctic, Climate Change, Natural Variability.

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Authors: Ahmad Abbas Al-Ameen Salih, Nur Liyana Afiqah Che Ahmad Zaini, Amzari Zhahir

Abstract:

Navigation is the processes of monitoring and controlling the movement of an object from one place to another. Currently, Global Positioning System (GPS) is the main navigation system used all over the world for navigation applications. GPS receiver receives signals from at least three satellites to locate and display itself. Displayed positioning information is updated continuously. Update rate is the number of times per second that a display is illuminated. The speed of update is governed by receiver update rate. A higher update rate decreases display lag time and improves distance measurements and tracking especially when moving on a curvy route. The majority of GPS receivers used nowadays are updated every second continuously. This period is considered reasonable for some applications while it is long relatively for high speed applications. In this paper, the suitability and feasibility of GPS receiver with different update rates will be evaluated for various applications according to the level of speed and update rate needed for particular applications.

Keywords: Navigation, Global Positioning System (GPS), GPS receiver, Update rate, Refresh rate, Satellite navigation, High speed GPS receiver.

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Authors: Yi-Fan Lin, Peter P. Howley, Frank A. Tuyl

Abstract:

Quality measurement and reporting systems are used in healthcare internationally. In Australia, the Australian Council on Healthcare Standards records and reports hundreds of clinical indicators (CIs) nationally across the healthcare system. These CIs are measures of performance in the clinical setting, and are used as a screening tool to help assess whether a standard of care is being met. Existing analysis and reporting of these CIs incorporate Bayesian methods to address sampling variation; however, such assessments are retrospective in nature, reporting upon the previous six or twelve months of data. The use of Bayesian methods within statistical process control for monitoring systems is an important pursuit to support more timely decision-making. Our research has developed and assessed a new graphical monitoring tool, similar to a control chart, based on the beta-binomial posterior predictive (BBPP) distribution to facilitate the real-time assessment of health care organizational performance via CIs. The BBPP charts have been compared with the traditional Bernoulli CUSUM (BC) chart by simulation. The more traditional “central” and “highest posterior density” (HPD) interval approaches were each considered to define the limits, and the multiple charts were compared via in-control and out-of-control average run lengths (ARLs), assuming that the parameter representing the underlying CI rate (proportion of cases with an event of interest) required estimation. Preliminary results have identified that the BBPP chart with HPD-based control limits provides better out-of-control run length performance than the central interval-based and BC charts. Further, the BC chart’s performance may be improved by using Bayesian parameter estimation of the underlying CI rate.

Keywords: Average run length, Bernoulli CUSUM chart, beta binomial posterior predictive distribution, clinical indicator, health care organization, highest posterior density interval.

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Authors: Manjit Singh

Abstract:

Multiscale entropy (MSE) is an extensively used index to provide a general understanding of multiple complexity of physiologic mechanism of heart rate variability (HRV) that operates on a wide range of time scales. Accurate selection of electrocardiogram (ECG) sampling frequency is an essential concern for clinically significant HRV quantification; high ECG sampling rate increase memory requirements and processing time, whereas low sampling rate degrade signal quality and results in clinically misinterpreted HRV. In this work, the impact of ECG sampling frequency on MSE based HRV have been quantified. MSE measures are found to be sensitive to ECG sampling frequency and effect of sampling frequency will be a function of time scale.

Keywords: ECG, heart rate variability, HRV, multiscale entropy, sampling frequency.

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Authors: Ákos Malatinszky, Szilvia Ádám

Abstract:

Climate change causes severe effects on natural habitats, especially wetlands. These challenges require the adaptation of their management to probable effects of climate change. A compilation of necessary changes in land management was collected in a Hungarian area being both national park and Natura 2000 SAC and SCI site in favor of increasing the resilience and reducing vulnerability. Several factors, such as ecological aspects, nature conservation and climatic adaptation should be combined with social and economic factors during the process of developing climate change adapted management on vulnerable wetlands. Planning adaptive management should be determined by a priority order of conservation aims and evaluation of factors at the determined planning unit. Mowing techniques, frequency and exact date should be observed as well as grazing species and their breed, due to different grazing, group forming and trampling habits. Integrating landscape history and historical land development into the planning process is essential.

Keywords: Adaptation, climate change, management, wetland.

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