Search results for: Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA)

Authors: D. Jakovčević, M. Mihelja Žaja

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The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence and relative share of underwriting risks in explaining the variation in insurance cycles in subsequent periods. Through the insurance contracts they underwrite, insurance companies assume risks. Underwriting risks include pricing risk, reserve risk, reinsurance risk and occurrence risk. These risks pose major risks for property and liability insurers, and therefore their impact on the insurance cycle is important. The main goal of this paper is to determine the relative proportion of underwriting risks in explaining the variation of insurance cycle. In order to fulfill the main goal of the paper vector autoregressive model, VAR, will be applied.

Keywords: Insurance cycle, insurance risks, combined ratio, Republic of Croatia.

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Authors: Olfa.Ben Ahmed, Mahmoud. Mejdoub, Chokri. Ben Amar

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Recognizing human action from videos is an active field of research in computer vision and pattern recognition. Human activity recognition has many potential applications such as video surveillance, human machine interaction, sport videos retrieval and robot navigation. Actually, local descriptors and bag of visuals words models achieve state-of-the-art performance for human action recognition. The main challenge in features description is how to represent efficiently the local motion information. Most of the previous works focus on the extension of 2D local descriptors on 3D ones to describe local information around every interest point. In this paper, we propose a new spatio-temporal descriptor based on a spacetime description of moving points. Our description is focused on an Accordion representation of video which is well-suited to recognize human action from 2D local descriptors without the need to 3D extensions. We use the bag of words approach to represent videos. We quantify 2D local descriptor describing both temporal and spatial features with a good compromise between computational complexity and action recognition rates. We have reached impressive results on publicly available action data set

Keywords: Accordion, Bag of Features, Human action, Motion, Moving point, Space-Time Descriptor, SIFT, Video.

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Authors: Sirimanee Banjong

Abstract:

This study aimed to 1) develop pre-service teachers’ leadership skills through camp-based learning, and 2) develop preservice teachers’ teamwork skills through camp-based learning. An applied research methodology was used. The target group was derived from a purposive selection. It involved 32 fourth-year students in Early Childhood Education Program enrolling a course entitled Seminar in Early Childhood Education provided during second semester of academic year 2013. The treatment was camp-based learning activities which applied a PDCA process including four stages: 1) plan, 2) do, 3) check, and 4) act. Research instruments were a learning camp program, a camp-based learning management plan, a 5-level assessment form for leadership skills and a 5-level assessment form for assessing teamwork skills. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Results were: 1) pre-service teachers’ leadership skills yielded the before treatment average score at x= 3.4, S.D.=0.6 2and the after-treatment average score at x 4.29 , S.D.=0.66 pre-service teachers’ teamwork skills yielded the before-treatment average score at x=3.31, S.D.=0.60 and the after-treatment average score at x=4.42, S.D.=0.66 Both differences were statistically significant at the .05 level. Thus, the pre-service teachers’ leadership and teamwork skills were significantly improved through the camp-based learning approach.

Keywords: Learning camp, leadership skills, teamwork skills.

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Authors: Heng Han, Zhilei Liang, Xiangong Zhou

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In this paper, the finite element method is used to study the temperature field of the main cable of the suspension bridge, and the calculation method of the average temperature of the cross-section of the main cable suitable for the construction control of the cable system is proposed. By comparing and analyzing the temperature field of the main cable with five diameters, a reasonable diameter limit for calculating the average temperature of the cross section of the main cable by finite element method is proposed. The results show that the maximum error of this method is less than 1 ℃, which meets the requirements of construction control accuracy. For the main cable with a diameter greater than 400 mm, the surface temperature measuring points combined with the finite element method shall be used to calculate the average cross-section temperature.

Keywords: Suspension bridge, main cable, temperature field, finite element.

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Authors: Giovanni Masala, Stefania Marica

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Forecasting electricity load plays a crucial role regards decision making and planning for economical purposes. Besides, in the light of the recent privatization and deregulation of the power industry, the forecasting of future electricity load turned out to be a very challenging problem. Empirical data about electricity load highlights a clear seasonal behavior (higher load during the winter season), which is partly due to climatic effects. We also emphasize the presence of load periodicity at a weekly basis (electricity load is usually lower on weekends or holidays) and at daily basis (electricity load is clearly influenced by the hour). Finally, a long-term trend may depend on the general economic situation (for example, industrial production affects electricity load). All these features must be captured by the model. The purpose of this paper is then to build an hourly electricity load model. The deterministic component of the model requires non-linear regression and Fourier series while we will investigate the stochastic component through econometrical tools. The calibration of the parameters’ model will be performed by using data coming from the Italian market in a 6 year period (2007- 2012). Then, we will perform a Monte Carlo simulation in order to compare the simulated data respect to the real data (both in-sample and out-of-sample inspection). The reliability of the model will be deduced thanks to standard tests which highlight a good fitting of the simulated values.

Keywords: ARMA-GARCH process, electricity load, fitting tests, Fourier series, Monte Carlo simulation, non-linear regression.

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Authors: Antoni Wibowo, Harry Pujianto, Dewi Retno Sari Saputro

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The stock market can provide huge profits in a relatively short time in financial sector; however, it also has a high risk for investors and traders if they are not careful to look the factors that affect the stock market. Therefore, they should give attention to the dynamic fluctuations and movements of the stock market to optimize profits from their investment. In this paper, we present a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model (NARX) to predict the movements of stock market; especially, the movements of the closing price index. As case study, we consider to predict the movement of the closing price in Indonesia composite index (IHSG) and choose the best structures of NARX for IHSG’s prediction.

Keywords: NARX, prediction, stock market, time series.

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Authors: Sunil Patel, Pallab Maji

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To study the effect of adversarial attack environment must be controlled. Autonomous driving includes mainly 5 phases sense, perceive, map, plan, and drive. Autonomous vehicles sense their surrounding with the help of different sensors like cameras, radars, and lidars. Deep learning techniques are considered Blackbox and found to be vulnerable to adversarial attacks. In this research, we study the effect of the various known adversarial attacks with the help of the Unreal Engine-based, high-fidelity, real-time raytraced simulated environment. The goal of this experiment is to find out if adversarial attacks work in moving vehicles and if an unknown network may be targeted. We discovered that the existing Blackbox and Whitebox attacks have varying effects on different traffic signs. We observed that attacks that impair detection in static scenarios do not have the same effect on moving vehicles. It was found that some adversarial attacks with hardly noticeable perturbations entirely blocked the recognition of certain traffic signs. We observed that the daylight condition has a substantial impact on the model's performance by simulating the interplay of light on traffic signs. Our findings have been found to closely resemble outcomes encountered in the real world.

Keywords: Adversarial attack simulation, computer simulation, ray-traced environment, realistic simulation, unreal engine.

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Authors: Z. Ezzouine, A. Nakheli

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This paper presents a high position electromagnetic sensor system (HPESS) that is applicable for moving object detection. The authors have developed a high-performance position sensor prototype dedicated to students’ laboratory. The challenge was to obtain a highly accurate and real-time sensor that is able to calculate position, length or displacement. An electromagnetic solution based on a two coil induction principal was adopted. The HPESS converts mechanical motion to electric energy with direct contact. The output signal can then be fed to an electronic circuit. The voltage output change from the sensor is captured by data acquisition system using LabVIEW software. The displacement of the moving object is determined. The measured data are transmitted to a PC in real-time via a DAQ (NI USB -6281). This paper also describes the data acquisition analysis and the conditioning card developed specially for sensor signal monitoring. The data is then recorded and viewed using a user interface written using National Instrument LabVIEW software. On-line displays of time and voltage of the sensor signal provide a user-friendly data acquisition interface. The sensor provides an uncomplicated, accurate, reliable, inexpensive transducer for highly sophisticated control systems.

Keywords: Electromagnetic sensor, data acquisition, accurately, position measurement.

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Authors: H. El Khattabi, A. Tamtaoui, D. Aboutajdine

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In this paper, we present the video quality measure estimation via a neural network. This latter predicts MOS (mean opinion score) by providing height parameters extracted from original and coded videos. The eight parameters that are used are: the average of DFT differences, the standard deviation of DFT differences, the average of DCT differences, the standard deviation of DCT differences, the variance of energy of color, the luminance Y, the chrominance U and the chrominance V. We chose Euclidean Distance to make comparison between the calculated and estimated output.

Keywords: video, neural network MLP, subjective quality, DCT, DFT, Retropropagation

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Authors: Keqin Li

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Given a parallel program to be executed on a heterogeneous computing system, the overall execution time of the program is determined by a schedule. In this paper, we analyze the worst-case performance of the list scheduling algorithm for scheduling tasks of a parallel program in a mixed-machine heterogeneous computing system such that the total execution time of the program is minimized. We prove tight lower and upper bounds for the worst-case performance ratio of the list scheduling algorithm. We also examine the average-case performance of the list scheduling algorithm. Our experimental data reveal that the average-case performance of the list scheduling algorithm is much better than the worst-case performance and is very close to optimal, except for large systems with large heterogeneity. Thus, the list scheduling algorithm is very useful in real applications.

Keywords: Average-case performance, list scheduling algorithm, mixed-machine heterogeneous computing system, worst-case performance.

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Authors: Mahdad M’hamed, Belaidi Idir

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This paper develops a meshless approach, called Element Free Galerkin (EFG) method, which is based on the weak form Moving Least Squares (MLS) of the partial differential governing equations and employs the interpolation to construct the meshless shape functions. The variation weak form is used in the EFG where the trial and test functions are approximated bye the MLS approximation. Since the shape functions constructed by this discretization have the weight function property based on the randomly distributed points, the essential boundary conditions can be implemented easily. The local weak form of the partial differential governing equations is obtained by the weighted residual method within the simple local quadrature domain. The spline function with high continuity is used as the weight function. The presently developed EFG method is a truly meshless method, as it does not require the mesh, either for the construction of the shape functions, or for the integration of the local weak form. Several numerical examples of two-dimensional static structural analysis are presented to illustrate the performance of the present EFG method. They show that the EFG method is highly efficient for the implementation and highly accurate for the computation. The present method is used to analyze the static deflection of beams and plate hole

Keywords: Numerical computation, element-free Galerkin, moving least squares, meshless methods.

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Authors: Ali A. Ahmed, Mohammed I. Hussein

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The amounts of radioactivity in the igneous rocks have been investigated; samples were collected from the total of eight basalt rock types in the northeastern of Kurdistan region/Iraq. The activity concentration of 226Ra (238U) series, 228Ac (232Th) series, 40K and 137Cs were measured using Planar HPGe and NaI(Tl) detectors. Along the study area the radium equivalent activities Raeq in Bq/Kg of samples under investigation were found in the range of 22.16 to 77.31 Bq/Kg with an average value of 44.8 Bq/Kg, this value is much below the internationally accepted value of 370 Bq/Kg. To estimate the health effects of this natural radioactive composition, the average values of absorbed gamma dose rate D (55 nGyh-1), Indoor and outdoor annual effective dose rates Eied (0.11 mSvy-1) . and Eoed (0.03 mSvy-1), External hazard index Hex (0.138) and internal hazard index Hin(0.154), and representative level index Iγr (0.386) have been calculated and found to be lower than the worldwide average values.

Keywords: Absorbed dose, activity concentration, igneousrocks, HPGe, NaI(TI), Natural Radioactivity.

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Authors: El-Said. I. Shabana, Mohammad S. Tayeb, Maher M. T. Qutub, Abdulraheem A. Kinsara

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Usually, phosphate deposits contain ²³⁸U and ²³²Th in addition to their decay products. Due to their different pathways in the environment, the ²³⁸U/²³²Th activity concentration ratio usually found to be greater than unity in phosphate sediments. The presence of these radionuclides creates a potential need to control exposure of workers in the mining and processing activities of the phosphate minerals in accordance with IAEA safety standards. The greatest dose to workers comes from exposure to radon, especially ²²²Rn from the uranium series, and has to be controlled. In this regard, radon (²²²Rn) was measured in the atmosphere (indoor and outdoor) of Al-Jalamid phosphate-mines working area using a portable radon-measurement instrument RAD7, in a purpose of radiation protection. Radon was measured in 61 sites inside the open phosphate mines, the phosphate upgrading facility (offices and rooms of the workers, and in some open-air sites) and in the dwellings of the workers residence-village that lies at about 3 km from the mines working area. The obtained results indicated that the average indoor radon concentration was about 48.4 Bq/m³. Inside the upgrading facility, the average outdoor concentrations were 10.8 and 9.7 Bq/m³ in the concentrate piles and crushing areas, respectively. It was 12.3 Bq/m³ in the atmosphere of the open mines. These values are comparable with the global average values. Based on the average values, the annual effective dose due to radon inhalation was calculated and risk estimates have been done. The average annual effective dose to workers due to the radon inhalation was estimated by 1.32 mSv. The potential excess risk of lung cancer mortality that could be attributed to radon, when considering the lifetime exposure, was estimated by 53.0x10^-4. The results have been discussed in detail.

Keywords: Dosimetry, environmental monitoring, phosphate deposits, radiation protection, radon-22.

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Authors: Mohamed Amine Belmiloud, Nord Eddine Sad Chemloul

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In this study, we investigated numerically heat transfer by mixed convection coupled to radiation in a square cavity; the upper horizontal wall is movable. The purpose of this study is to see the influence of the emissivity ε and the varying of the Richardson number Ri on the variation of average Nusselt number Nu. The vertical walls of the cavity are differentially heated, the left wall is maintained at a uniform temperature higher than the right wall, and the two horizontal walls are adiabatic. The finite volume method is used for solving the dimensionless Governing Equations. Emissivity values used in this study are ranged between 0 and 1, the Richardson number in the range 0.1 to 10. The Rayleigh number is fixed to Ra=104 and the Prandtl number is maintained constant Pr=0.71. Streamlines, isothermal lines and the average Nusselt number are presented according to the surface emissivity. The results of this study show that the Richardson number Ri and emissivity ε affect the average Nusselt number.

Keywords: Numerical study, mixed convection, square cavity, wall emissivity, lid-driven.

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Authors: Hans R. Márquez, Cesar Hernández, Ingrid Páez

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This paper develops a multiple channel assignment model, which allows to take advantage of spectrum opportunities in cognitive radio networks in the most efficient way. The developed scheme allows making several assignments of available and frequency adjacent channel, which require a bigger bandwidth, under an equality environment. The hybrid assignment model it is made by two algorithms, one that makes the ranking and selects available frequency channels and the other one in charge of establishing the Max-Min Fairness for not restrict the spectrum opportunities for all the other secondary users, who also claim to make transmissions. Measurements made were done for average bandwidth, average delay, as well as fairness computation for several channel assignments. Reached results were evaluated with experimental spectrum occupational data from captured GSM frequency band. The developed model shows evidence of improvement in spectrum opportunity use and a wider average transmission bandwidth for each secondary user, maintaining equality criteria in channel assignment.

Keywords: Bandwidth, fairness, multichannel, secondary users.

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Authors: C. Lodato, S. Lopes

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The image segmentation method described in this paper has been developed as a pre-processing stage to be used in methodologies and tools for video/image indexing and retrieval by content. This method solves the problem of whole objects extraction from background and it produces images of single complete objects from videos or photos. The extracted images are used for calculating the object visual features necessary for both indexing and retrieval processes. The segmentation algorithm is based on the cooperation among an optical flow evaluation method, edge detection and region growing procedures. The optical flow estimator belongs to the class of differential methods. It permits to detect motions ranging from a fraction of a pixel to a few pixels per frame, achieving good results in presence of noise without the need of a filtering pre-processing stage and includes a specialised model for moving object detection. The first task of the presented method exploits the cues from motion analysis for moving areas detection. Objects and background are then refined using respectively edge detection and seeded region growing procedures. All the tasks are iteratively performed until objects and background are completely resolved. The method has been applied to a variety of indoor and outdoor scenes where objects of different type and shape are represented on variously textured background.

Keywords: Image Segmentation, Motion Detection, Object Extraction, Optical Flow

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Authors: H. Bevrani, N. Najafi

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This paper uses p-tolerance with the lowest posterior loss, quadratic loss function, average length criteria, average coverage criteria, and worst outcome criterion for computing of sample size to estimate proportion in Binomial probability function with Beta prior distribution. The proposed methodology is examined, and its effectiveness is shown.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, Beta-binomial Distribution, LPLcriteria, quadratic loss function.

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Authors: Rana Khalid Naeem, Asif Mansoor

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Periodicities in the environmetric time series can be idyllically assessed by utilizing periodic models. In this communication fugitive emission of gases from open sewer channel Lyari which follows periodic behaviour are approximated by employing periodic autoregressive model of order p. The orders of periodic model for each season are selected through the examination of periodic partial autocorrelation or information criteria. The parameters for the selected order of season are estimated individually for each emitted air toxin. Subsequently, adequacies of fitted models are established by examining the properties of the residual for each season. These models are beneficial for schemer and administrative bodies for the improvement of implemented policies to surmount future environmental problems.

Keywords: Exchange of Gases, Goodness of Fit, Open Sewer Channel, PAR(p) Models, Periodicities, Season Wise Models.

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Authors: Saeid Haghjoo, Ebrahim Reyhani, Fahimeh Kolahdouz

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The present study aimed to evaluate the understanding of the students in Tehran universities (Iran) about the numerical representation of the average rate of change based on the Structure of Observed Learning Outcomes (SOLO). In the present descriptive-survey research, the statistical population included undergraduate students (basic sciences and engineering) in the universities of Tehran. The samples were 604 students selected by random multi-stage clustering. The measurement tool was a task whose face and content validity was confirmed by math and mathematics education professors. Using Cronbach's Alpha criterion, the reliability coefficient of the task was obtained 0.95, which verified its reliability. The collected data were analyzed by descriptive statistics and inferential statistics (chi-squared and independent t-tests) under SPSS-24 software. According to the SOLO model in the prestructural, unistructural, and multistructural levels, basic science students had a higher percentage of understanding than that of engineering students, although the outcome was inverse at the relational level. However, there was no significant difference in the average understanding of both groups. The results indicated that students failed to have a proper understanding of the numerical representation of the average rate of change, in addition to missconceptions when using physics formulas in solving the problem. In addition, multiple solutions were derived along with their dominant methods during the qualitative analysis. The current research proposed to focus on the context problems with approximate calculations and numerical representation, using software and connection common relations between math and physics in the teaching process of teachers and professors.

Keywords: Average rate of change, context problems, derivative, numerical representation, SOLO taxonomy.

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Authors: M.H.R.O. Abdullah, P.E. Ch'ng, N.A. Yunus

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Some physical properties of musk lime (Citrus microcarpa) were determined in this study. The average moisture content (wet basis) of the fruit was found to be 85.10 (±0.72) %. The mean of length, width and thickness of the fruit was 26.36 (±0.97), 26.40 (±1.04) and 25.26 (±0.94) mm respectively. The average value for geometric mean diameter, sphericity, aspect ratio, mass, surface area, volume, true density, bulk density and porosity was 26.00 (±0.82) mm, 98.67 (±2.04) %, 100.23 (±3.28) %, 10.007 (±0.878) g, 2125.07 (±133.93) mm2, 8800.00 (±731.82) mm3, 1002.87 (±39.16) kgm-3, 501.70 (±22.58) kgm-3 and 49.89 (±3.15) % respectively. The coefficient of static friction on four types of structural surface was found to be varying from 0.238 (±0.025) for glass to 0.247 (±0.024) for steel surface.

Keywords: Musk lime, Citrus microcarpa, physical properties.

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Authors: Irene K. Amponsah, Bennony K. Gordor, Francis Dogbey

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This paper introduces a technique for simulating a single-server exponential queuing system. The technique called the Q-Simulator is a computer program which can simulate the effect of traffic intensity on all system average quantities given the arrival and/or service rates. The Q-Simulator has three phases namely: the formula based method, the uncontrolled simulation, and the controlled simulation. The Q-Simulator generates graphs (crystal solutions) for all results of the simulation or calculation and can be used to estimate desirable average quantities such as waiting times, queue lengths, etc.

Keywords: Automation system-Simulator, Simulation, Singleserver exponential system

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Authors: Naushad Mamode Khan

Abstract:

The Com-Poisson (CMP) model is one of the most popular discrete generalized linear models (GLMS) that handles both equi-, over- and under-dispersed data. In longitudinal context, an integer-valued autoregressive (INAR(1)) process that incorporates covariate specification has been developed to model longitudinal CMP counts. However, the joint likelihood CMP function is difficult to specify and thus restricts the likelihood-based estimating methodology. The joint generalized quasi-likelihood approach (GQL-I) was instead considered but is rather computationally intensive and may not even estimate the regression effects due to a complex and frequently ill-conditioned covariance structure. This paper proposes a new GQL approach for estimating the regression parameters (GQL-III) that is based on a single score vector representation. The performance of GQL-III is compared with GQL-I and separate marginal GQLs (GQL-II) through some simulation experiments and is proved to yield equally efficient estimates as GQL-I and is far more computationally stable.

Keywords: Longitudinal, Com-Poisson, Ill-conditioned, INAR(1), GLMS, GQL.

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Authors: Wichan Lertlop, Boonyarat Chaleephay

Abstract:

The objective of this research was to study the appropriate thermal level and time for dabbing customers with the massage compressed pack reported from their perception. The investigation was conducted by comparing different angles of tilted heads done by the customers together with their perception before and after the dabbing. The variables included different temperature of the compressed packs and different dabbing duration. Samples in this study included volunteers who got massage therapy and dabbing with hot compressed packs by traditional Thai medical students. The experiment was conducted during January to June 2013. The research tool consisted of angle meters, stop watches, thermometers, and massage compressed packs. The customers were interviewed for their perceptions before and after the dabbing. The results showed that:

1. There was a difference of the average angles of tilted heads before and after the dabbing.
2. There was no difference of the average angles at different temperatures but constant duration.
3. There was no difference of the average angles at different durations.
4. The customers reported relaxation no matter what the various temperatures and various dabbing durations were. However, they reported too hot at the temperature 70^oC and over.

Keywords: Massage, Therapy, Therapeutic Systems and Technologies.

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Authors: Roberto Iglesias, Theocharis Kyriacou, Ulrich Nehmzow, Steve Billings

Abstract:

Fundamental sensor-motor couplings form the backbone of most mobile robot control tasks, and often need to be implemented fast, efficiently and nevertheless reliably. Machine learning techniques are therefore often used to obtain the desired sensor-motor competences. In this paper we present an alternative to established machine learning methods such as artificial neural networks, that is very fast, easy to implement, and has the distinct advantage that it generates transparent, analysable sensor-motor couplings: system identification through nonlinear polynomial mapping. This work, which is part of the RobotMODIC project at the universities of Essex and Sheffield, aims to develop a theoretical understanding of the interaction between the robot and its environment. One of the purposes of this research is to enable the principled design of robot control programs. As a first step towards this aim we model the behaviour of the robot, as this emerges from its interaction with the environment, with the NARMAX modelling method (Nonlinear, Auto-Regressive, Moving Average models with eXogenous inputs). This method produces explicit polynomial functions that can be subsequently analysed using established mathematical methods. In this paper we demonstrate the fidelity of the obtained NARMAX models in the challenging task of robot route learning; we present a set of experiments in which a Magellan Pro mobile robot was taught to follow four different routes, always using the same mechanism to obtain the required control law.

Keywords: Mobile robotics, system identification, non-linear modelling, NARMAX.

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Authors: A. Dal Monte, M. Raciti Castelli, G. B. Bellato, L. Stevanato, E. Benini

Abstract:

The wind resource in the Italian site of Lendinara (RO) is analyzed through a systematic anemometric campaign performed on the top of the bell tower, at an altitude of over 100 m above the ground. Both the average wind speed and the Weibull distribution are computed. The resulting average wind velocity is in accordance with the numerical predictions of the Italian Wind Atlas, confirming the accuracy of the extrapolation of wind data adopted for the evaluation of wind potential at higher altitudes with respect to the commonly placed measurement stations.

Keywords: Anemometric campaign, wind resource, Weibull distribution, wind atlas

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Authors: Jingling Li, Yi Zhang, Wei Liang, Tao Cui, Jun Li

Abstract:

Compared with terrestrial network, the traffic of spatial information network has both self-similarity and short correlation characteristics. By studying its traffic prediction method, the resource utilization of spatial information network can be improved, and the method can provide an important basis for traffic planning of a spatial information network. In this paper, considering the accuracy and complexity of the algorithm, the spatial information network traffic is decomposed into approximate component with long correlation and detail component with short correlation, and a time series hybrid prediction model based on wavelet decomposition is proposed to predict the spatial network traffic. Firstly, the original traffic data are decomposed to approximate components and detail components by using wavelet decomposition algorithm. According to the autocorrelation and partial correlation smearing and truncation characteristics of each component, the corresponding model (AR/MA/ARMA) of each detail component can be directly established, while the type of approximate component modeling can be established by ARIMA model after smoothing. Finally, the prediction results of the multiple models are fitted to obtain the prediction results of the original data. The method not only considers the self-similarity of a spatial information network, but also takes into account the short correlation caused by network burst information, which is verified by using the measured data of a certain back bone network released by the MAWI working group in 2018. Compared with the typical time series model, the predicted data of hybrid model is closer to the real traffic data and has a smaller relative root means square error, which is more suitable for a spatial information network.

Keywords: Spatial Information Network, Traffic prediction, Wavelet decomposition, Time series model.

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Authors: Ali M. Jawarneh, Ahmad S. AL-Shyyab

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The purpose of this work is to present the potential of solar energy in Zarqa region. The solar radiation along year 2009 was obtained from Pyranometer which measures the global radiation over horizontal surfaces. Solar data in several different forms, over period of 5 minutes, hour-by-hour, daily and monthly data radiation have been presented. Briefly, the yearly global solar radiation in Zarqa is 7297.5 MJ/m2 (2027 kWh/m²) and the average annual solar radiation per day is 20 MJ/m2 (5.5 Kwh/m2). More specifically, the average annual solar radiation per day is 12.9 MJ/m2 (3.57 Kwh/m2) in winter and 25 MJ/m2 (7 Kwh/m2) in summer.

Keywords: Solar Energy, Pyranometer, Zarqa Region

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Authors: H. B. Kekre, Tanuja K. Sarode

Abstract:

This paper presents a very simple and efficient algorithm for codebook search, which reduces a great deal of computation as compared to the full codebook search. The algorithm is based on sorting and centroid technique for search. The results table shows the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm in terms of computational complexity. In this paper we also introduce a new performance parameter named as Average fractional change in pixel value as we feel that it gives better understanding of the closeness of the image since it is related to the perception. This new performance parameter takes into consideration the average fractional change in each pixel value.

Keywords: Vector Quantization, Data Compression, Encoding, Searching.

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Authors: Salma Parvin, M. A. Alim

Abstract:

The convective and radiative heat transfer performance and entropy generation on forced convection through a direct absorption solar collector (DASC) is investigated numerically. Four different fluids, including Cu-water nanofluid, Al₂O₃-waternanofluid, TiO₂-waternanofluid, and pure water are used as the working fluid. Entropy production has been taken into account in addition to the collector efficiency and heat transfer enhancement. Penalty finite element method with Galerkin’s weighted residual technique is used to solve the governing non-linear partial differential equations. Numerical simulations are performed for the variation of mass flow rate. The outcomes are presented in the form of isotherms, average output temperature, the average Nusselt number, collector efficiency, average entropy generation, and Bejan number. The results present that the rate of heat transfer and collector efficiency enhance significantly for raising the values of m up to a certain range.

Keywords: DASC, forced convection, mass flow rate, nanofluid.

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Authors: L. Basha, E. Gjika

Abstract:

The exchange rate is one of the most important economic variables, especially for a small, open economy such as Albania. Its effect is noticeable on one country's competitiveness, trade and current account, inflation, wages, domestic economic activity and bank stability. This study investigates the fluctuation of Albania’s exchange rates using monthly average foreign currency, Euro (Eur) to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate with a time span from January 2008 to June 2021 and the macroeconomic factors that have a significant effect on the exchange rate. Initially, the Random Forest Regression algorithm is constructed to understand the impact of economic variables in the behavior of monthly average foreign currencies exchange rates. Then the forecast of macro-economic indicators for 12 months was performed using time series models. The predicted values received are placed in the random forest model in order to obtain the average monthly forecast of Euro to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate for the period July 2021 to June 2022.

Keywords: Exchange rate, Random Forest, time series, Machine Learning, forecasting.

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