Search results for: risk estimation.

Authors: Hossein Amoozad Khalili, Anahita Maleki

Abstract:

Normally business changes are made in order to change a level of activity in some way, whether it is sales, cash flow, productivity, or product portfolio. When attempts are made to make such changes, too often the business reverts to the old levels of activity as soon as management attention is diverted. Risk management is a field of growing interest to project managers as well as in general business and organizational management. There are several approaches used to manage risk in projects and this paper is a brief outline of some that you might encounter, with an indication of their strengths and weaknesses.

Keywords: Risk Management, Project Management, Scheduling, Planning

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3374

Authors: E. Praynlin, P. Latha

Abstract:

Software Effort Estimation is the process of estimating the effort required to develop software. By estimating the effort, the cost and schedule required to estimate the software can be determined. Accurate Estimate helps the developer to allocate the resource accordingly in order to avoid cost overrun and schedule overrun. Several methods are available in order to estimate the effort among which soft computing based method plays a prominent role. Software cost estimation deals with lot of uncertainty among all soft computing methods neural network is good in handling uncertainty. In this paper Radial Basis Function Network is compared with the back propagation network and the results are validated using six data sets and it is found that RBFN is best suitable to estimate the effort. The Results are validated using two tests the error test and the statistical test.

Keywords: Software cost estimation, Radial Basis Function Network (RBFN), Back propagation function network, Mean Magnitude of Relative Error (MMRE).

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2352

Authors: Sandija Zeverte-Rivza, Irina Pilvere, Baiba Rivza

Abstract:

The use of renewable energy sources incl. biogas has become topical in accordance with the increasing demand for energy, decrease of fossil energy resources and the efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as well as to increase energy independence from the territories where fossil energy resources are available.

As the technologies of biogas production from agricultural biomass develop, risk assessment and risk management become necessary for farms producing such a renewable energy. The need for risk assessments has become particularly topical when discussions on changing the biogas policy in the EU take place, which may influence the development of the sector in the future, as well as the operation of existing biogas facilities and their income level.

The current article describes results of the risk assessment for farms producing biomass from agriculture biomass in Latvia, the risk assessment system included 24 risks, that affect the whole biogas production process and the obtained results showed the high significance of political and production risks.

Keywords: Biogas production, risks, risk assessment.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3185

Authors: R. Berglund, T. Backström, M. Bellgran

Abstract:

This study explores how management addresses psychosocial risks in seven teams of engineers and technicians in the midst of the fourth industrial revolution. The sample is from an ongoing quasi-experiment about psychosocial risk management in a manufacturing company in Sweden. Each of the seven teams belongs to one of two clusters: a positive cluster or a negative cluster. The positive cluster reports a significantly positive change in psychosocial risk levels between two time-points and the negative cluster reports a significantly negative change. The data are collected using semi-structured interviews. The results of the computer aided thematic analysis show that there are more differences than similarities when comparing the risk treatment actions taken between the two clusters. Findings show that the managers in the positive cluster use more enabling actions that foster and support formal and informal relationship building. In contrast, managers that use less enabling actions hinder the development of positive group processes and contribute negative changes in psychosocial risk levels. This exploratory study sheds some light on how management can influence significant positive and negative changes in psychosocial risk levels during a risk management process.

Keywords: Group process model, risk treatment, risk management, psychosocial.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 965

Authors: M. Balestrieri, C. Pusceddu

Abstract:

Issues relating to the destructive phenomena that can damage people and goods have returned to the centre of debate in Italy with the increase in catastrophic episodes in recent years in a country which is highly vulnerable to hydrological risk. Environmental factors and geological and geomorphological territorial characteristics play an important role in determining the level of vulnerability and the natural tendency to risk. However, a territory has also been subjected to the requirements of and transformations of society and this brings other relevant factors. The reasons for the increase in destructive phenomena are often to be found in the territorial development models adopted. Stewardship of the landscape and management of risk are related issues. This study aims to summarize the most relevant elements about this connection and at the same time to clarify the role of environmental risk assessment as a tool to aid in the sustainable management of landscape. Finally, the study reflects on how regional and urban planners deal with environmental risk and which aspects should be monitored in order to adopt responsible and useful interventions.

Keywords: Assessment, landscape, risk, planning.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1797

Authors: M. M. Qasaymeh, M. A. Khodeir

Abstract:

Subspace channel estimation methods have been studied widely, where the subspace of the covariance matrix is decomposed to separate the signal subspace from noise subspace. The decomposition is normally done by using either the eigenvalue decomposition (EVD) or the singular value decomposition (SVD) of the auto-correlation matrix (ACM). However, the subspace decomposition process is computationally expensive. This paper considers the estimation of the multipath slow frequency hopping (FH) channel using noise space based method. In particular, an efficient method is proposed to estimate the multipath time delays by applying multiple signal classification (MUSIC) algorithm which is based on the null space extracted by the rank revealing LU (RRLU) factorization. As a result, precise information is provided by the RRLU about the numerical null space and the rank, (i.e., important tool in linear algebra). The simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed novel method by approximately decreasing the computational complexity to the half as compared with RRQR methods keeping the same performance.

Keywords: Time Delay Estimation, RRLU, RRQR, MUSIC, LS-ESPRIT, LS-ESPRIT, Frequency Hopping.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2010

Authors: Ananya Das, Arun Kumar, Gazala Habib, Vivekanandan Perumal

Abstract:

Regulatory bodies has proposed limits on Particulate Matter (PM) concentration in air; however, it does not explicitly indicate the incorporation of effects of toxicities of constituents of PM in developing regulatory limits. This study aimed to provide a structured approach to incorporate toxic effects of components in developing regulatory limits on PM. A four-step human health risk assessment framework consists of - (1) hazard identification (parameters: PM and its constituents and their associated toxic effects on health), (2) exposure assessment (parameters: concentrations of PM and constituents, information on size and shape of PM; fate and transport of PM and constituents in respiratory system), (3) dose-response assessment (parameters: reference dose or target toxicity dose of PM and its constituents), and (4) risk estimation (metric: hazard quotient and/or lifetime incremental risk of cancer as applicable). Then parameters required at every step were obtained from literature. Using this information, an attempt has been made to determine limits on PM using component-specific information. An example calculation was conducted for exposures of PM_2.5 and its metal constituents from Indian ambient environment to determine limit on PM values. Identified data gaps were: (1) concentrations of PM and its constituents and their relationship with sampling regions, (2) relationship of toxicity of PM with its components.

Keywords: Air, component-specific toxicity, human health risks, particulate matter.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1138

Authors: Amin Sedighfar, M. R. Moniri

Abstract:

Determination of state of charge (SOC) in today’s world becomes an increasingly important issue in all the applications that include a battery. In fact, estimation of the SOC is a fundamental need for the battery, which is the most important energy storage in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs), smart grid systems, drones, UPS and so on. Regarding those applications, the SOC estimation algorithm is expected to be precise and easy to implement. This paper presents an online method for the estimation of the SOC of Valve-Regulated Lead Acid (VRLA) batteries. The proposed method uses the well-known Kalman Filter (KF), and Neural Networks (NNs) and all of the simulations have been done with MATLAB software. The NN is trained offline using the data collected from the battery discharging process. A generic cell model is used, and the underlying dynamic behavior of the model has used two capacitors (bulk and surface) and three resistors (terminal, surface, and end), where the SOC determined from the voltage represents the bulk capacitor. The aim of this work is to compare the performance of conventional integration-based SOC estimation methods with a mixed algorithm. Moreover, by containing the effect of temperature, the final result becomes more accurate. 

Keywords: Kalman filter, neural networks, state-of-charge, VRLA battery.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1370

Authors: Chvalkovska, J., Jansky, P., Mejstrik, M.

Abstract:

The objective of this article is to discuss the potential of economic analysis as a tool for identification and evaluation of corruption in legislative acts. We propose that corruption be perceived as a risk variable within the legislative process. Therefore we find it appropriate to employ risk analysis methods, used in various fields of economics, for the evaluation of corruption in legislation. Furthermore we propose the incorporation of these methods into the so called corruption impact assessment (CIA), the general framework for detection of corruption in legislative acts. The applications of the risk analysis methods are demonstrated on examples of implementation of proposed CIA in the Czech Republic.

Keywords: corruption; corruption impact assessment (CIA); legislative; legislative process; risk analysis; Czech Republic

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2424

Authors: Tea Poklepović, Zdravka Aljinović, Branka Marasović

Abstract:

Due to the importance of yield curve and its estimation it is inevitable to have valid methods for yield curve forecasting in cases when there are scarce issues of securities and/or week trade on a secondary market. Therefore in this paper, after the estimation of weekly yield curves on Croatian financial market from October 2011 to August 2012 using Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models, yield curves are forecasted using Vector autoregressive model and Neural networks. In general, it can be concluded that both forecasting methods have good prediction abilities where forecasting of yield curves based on Nelson Siegel estimation model give better results in sense of lower Mean Squared Error than forecasting based on Svensson model Also, in this case Neural networks provide slightly better results. Finally, it can be concluded that most appropriate way of yield curve prediction is Neural networks using Nelson-Siegel estimation of yield curves.

Keywords: Nelson-Siegel model, Neural networks, Svensson model, Vector autoregressive model, Yield curve.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3211

Authors: Siti Raihana Hamzah

Abstract:

This paper elaborates risk shifting in debt financing system as the ultimate cause of the global financial crisis. In contrast, risk sharing in equity financing like sukuk helps the economic system to be better sustained. Nevertheless, some types of sukuk are haunted by the issue of imitation with bonds. The critics on the imitation issue not only have raised doubt on the ability of sukuk to diminish risk shifting behavior but also the ability of this Islamic financial instrument to ensure better future financial stability. Through that, this paper provides discussion on the possibility of sukuk to induce risk shifting and how equity financing may help sukuk to be free from risk shifting. This paper is important in the sense that sukuk receives a significant demand from investors throughout the world. For this instrument to be supportive in the future economic stability, the issue of imitation needs to be identified and addressed. Furthermore, critics cannot be focused on debts and its ability to gauge the financial flux but also to sukuk due to their structures similarity.

Keywords: Global financial crisis, debt, risk-shifting, risk sharing, equity, sukuk, bonds.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2497

Authors: M. R. AlRashidi, K. M. El-Naggar, M. F. AlHajri

Abstract:

This paper presents Simulated Annealing based approach to estimate solar cell model parameters. Single diode solar cell model is used in this study to validate the proposed approach outcomes. The developed technique is used to estimate different model parameters such as generated photocurrent, saturation current, series resistance, shunt resistance, and ideality factor that govern the current-voltage relationship of a solar cell. A practical case study is used to test and verify the consistency of accurately estimating various parameters of single diode solar cell model. Comparative study among different parameter estimation techniques is presented to show the effectiveness of the developed approach.

Keywords: Simulated Annealing, Parameter Estimation, Solar Cell.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2513

Authors: Ritsuko Kawasaki (Aiba), Takeshi Hiromatsu

Abstract:

Management is required to understand all information security risks within an organization, and to make decisions on which information security risks should be treated in what level by allocating how much amount of cost. However, such decision-making is not usually easy, because various measures for risk treatment must be selected with the suitable application levels. In addition, some measures may have objectives conflicting with each other. It also makes the selection difficult. Moreover, risks generally have trends and it also should be considered in risk treatment. Therefore, this paper provides the extension of the model proposed in the previous study. The original model supports the selection of measures by applying a combination of weighted average method and goal programming method for multi-objective analysis to find an optimal solution. The extended model includes the notion of weights to the risks, and the larger weight means the priority of the risk.

Keywords: Information security risk treatment, Selection of risk measures, Risk acceptanceand Multi-objective optimization.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1690

Authors: H. Loukil, A. Ben Atitallah, F. Ghozzi, M. A. Ben Ayed, N. Masmoudi

Abstract:

In MPEG and H.26x standards, to eliminate the temporal redundancy we use motion estimation. Given that the motion estimation stage is very complex in terms of computational effort, a hardware implementation on a re-configurable circuit is crucial for the requirements of different real time multimedia applications. In this paper, we present hardware architecture for motion estimation based on "Full Search Block Matching" (FSBM) algorithm. This architecture presents minimum latency, maximum throughput, full utilization of hardware resources such as embedded memory blocks, and combining both pipelining and parallel processing techniques. Our design is described in VHDL language, verified by simulation and implemented in a Stratix II EP2S130F1020C4 FPGA circuit. The experiment result show that the optimum operating clock frequency of the proposed design is 89MHz which achieves 160M pixels/sec.

Keywords: SAD, FSBM, Hardware Implementation, FPGA.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1609

Authors: Nur Atiqah Rochin Demong, Jie Lu, Farookh Khadeer Hussain

Abstract:

Property investment in the real estate industry has a high risk due to the uncertainty factors that will affect the decisions made and high cost. Analytic hierarchy process has existed for some time in which referred to an expert-s opinion to measure the uncertainty of the risk factors for the risk analysis. Therefore, different level of experts- experiences will create different opinion and lead to the conflict among the experts in the field. The objective of this paper is to propose a new technique to measure the uncertainty of the risk factors based on multidimensional data model and data mining techniques as deterministic approach. The propose technique consist of a basic framework which includes four modules: user, technology, end-user access tools and applications. The property investment risk analysis defines as a micro level analysis as the features of the property will be considered in the analysis in this paper.

Keywords: Uncertainty factors, data mining, multidimensional data model, risk analysis.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2876

Authors: Johann Barbier, Guillaume Sicot, Sebastien Houcke

Abstract:

In this paper we present a generic approach for the problem of the blind estimation of the parameters of linear and convolutional error correcting codes. In a non-cooperative context, an adversary has only access to the noised transmission he has intercepted. The intercepter has no knowledge about the parameters used by the legal users. So, before having acess to the information he has first to blindly estimate the parameters of the error correcting code of the communication. The presented approach has the main advantage that the problem of reconstruction of such codes can be expressed in a very simple way. This allows us to evaluate theorical bounds on the complexity of the reconstruction process but also bounds on the estimation rate. We show that some classical reconstruction techniques are optimal and also explain why some of them have theorical complexities greater than these experimentally observed.

Keywords: Blind estimation parameters, error correcting codes, non-cooperative context, reconstruction algorithm

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2138

Authors: Takaaki Ishibashi

Abstract:

Independent component analysis can estimate unknown source signals from their mixtures under the assumption that the source signals are statistically independent. However, in a real environment, the separation performance is often deteriorated because the number of the source signals is different from that of the sensors. In this paper, we propose an estimation method for the number of the sources based on the joint distribution of the observed signals under two-sensor configuration. From several simulation results, it is found that the number of the sources is coincident to that of peaks in the histogram of the distribution. The proposed method can estimate the number of the sources even if it is larger than that of the observed signals. The proposed methods have been verified by several experiments.

Keywords: blind source separation, independent component analysys, estimation for the number of the blind sources, voice activity detection, target extraction.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1269

Authors: E. L. Suarez, D. E. Meeroff, Y. Yong

Abstract:

Current flooding risk modeling focuses on resilience, defined as the probability of recovery from a severe flooding event. However, the long-term damage to property and well-being by nuisance flooding and its long-term effects on communities are not typically included in risk assessments. An approach was developed to address the probability of recovering from a severe flooding event combined with the probability of community performance during a nuisance event. A consolidated model, namely the conflation flooding recovery (&FR) model, evaluates risk-coping mitigation strategies for communities based on the recovery time from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes or extreme surges, and from everyday nuisance flooding events. The &FR model assesses the variation contribution of each independent input and generates a weighted output that favors the distribution with minimum variation. This approach is especially useful if the input distributions have dissimilar variances. The &FR is defined as a single distribution resulting from the product of the individual probability density functions. The resulting conflated distribution resides between the parent distributions, and it infers the recovery time required by a community to return to basic functions, such as power, utilities, transportation, and civil order, after a flooding event. The &FR model is more accurate than averaging individual observations before calculating the mean and variance or averaging the probabilities evaluated at the input values, which assigns the same weighted variation to each input distribution. The main disadvantage of these traditional methods is that the resulting measure of central tendency is exactly equal to the average of the input distribution’s means without the additional information provided by each individual distribution variance. When dealing with exponential distributions, such as resilience from severe flooding events and from nuisance flooding events, conflation results are equivalent to the weighted least squares method or best linear unbiased estimation. The combination of severe flooding risk with nuisance flooding improves flood risk management for highly populated coastal communities, such as in South Florida, USA, and provides a method to estimate community flood recovery time more accurately from two different sources, severe flooding events and nuisance flooding events.

Keywords: Community resilience, conflation, flood risk, nuisance flooding.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 65

Authors: Amalka Nawarathna, Nirodha Fernando, Zaid Alwan

Abstract:

Global carbon reduction is not merely a responsibility of environmentally advanced developed countries, but also a responsibility of developing countries regardless of their less impact on global carbon emissions. In recognition of that, Sri Lanka as a developing country has initiated promoting green building construction as one reduction strategy. However, notwithstanding the increasing attention on Embodied Carbon (EC) reduction in the global building sector, they still mostly focus on Operational Carbon (OC) reduction (through improving operational energy). An adequate attention has not yet been given on EC estimation and reduction. Therefore, this study aims to identify the reasons for the slow uptake of EC estimation in the Sri Lankan building sector. To achieve this aim, 16 numbers of global barriers to estimate EC were identified through existing literature. They were then subjected to a pilot survey to identify the significant reasons for the slow uptake of EC estimation in the Sri Lankan building sector. A questionnaire with a three-point Likert scale was used to this end. The collected data were analysed using descriptive statistics. The findings revealed that 11 out of 16 challenges/ barriers are highly relevant as reasons for the slow uptake in estimating EC in buildings in Sri Lanka while the other five challenges/ barriers remain as moderately relevant reasons. Further, the findings revealed that there are no low relevant reasons. Eventually, the paper concluded that all the known reasons are significant to the Sri Lankan building sector and it is necessary to address them in order to upturn the attention on EC reduction.

Keywords: Embodied carbon emissions, embodied carbon estimation, global carbon reduction, Sri Lankan building sector.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 793

Authors: M. Ghareh, L. Sepahi

Abstract:

Temperature rise in a transformer depends on variety of parameters such as ambient temperature, output current and type of the core. Considering these parameters, temperature rise estimation is still complicated procedure. In this paper, we present a new model based on simple electrical equivalent circuit. This method avoids the complication associated to accurate estimation and is in very good agreement with practice.

Keywords: Thermal modeling, temperature rise, equivalent thermal circuit.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3771

Authors: L. K. Singh, Riktesh Srivastava

Abstract:

How to effectively allocate system resource to process the Client request by Gateway servers is a challenging problem. In this paper, we propose an improved scheme for autonomous performance of Gateway servers under highly dynamic traffic loads. We devise a methodology to calculate Queue Length and Waiting Time utilizing Gateway Server information to reduce response time variance in presence of bursty traffic. The most widespread contemplation is performance, because Gateway Servers must offer cost-effective and high-availability services in the elongated period, thus they have to be scaled to meet the expected load. Performance measurements can be the base for performance modeling and prediction. With the help of performance models, the performance metrics (like buffer estimation, waiting time) can be determined at the development process. This paper describes the possible queue models those can be applied in the estimation of queue length to estimate the final value of the memory size. Both simulation and experimental studies using synthesized workloads and analysis of real-world Gateway Servers demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed system.

Keywords: M/M/1, M/G/1, G/M/1, G/G/1, Gateway Servers, Buffer Estimation, Waiting Time, Queuing Process.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1903

Authors: S. Mahalakshmi, B. Senthil Arasu

Abstract:

As per the recent changes happening in the global policies, climate related changes and the impact it causes across every sector are viewed as green swan events – in essence, climate related changes can happen often and lead to risk and lot of uncertainty, but need to be mitigated instead of considering them as black swan events. This brings about a question on how this risk can be computed, so that the financial institutions can plan to mitigate it. Climate related changes impact all risk types – credit risk, market risk, operational risk, liquidity risk, reputational risk and others. And the models required to compute this have to consider the different industrial needs of the counterparty, as well as the factors that are contributing to this – be it in the form of different risk drivers, or the different transmission channels or the different approaches and the granular form of data availability. This brings out to the suggestion that the climate related changes, though it affects Pillar I risks, will be a Pillar II risk. This has to be modeled specifically based on the financial institution’s actual exposure to different industries, instead of generalizing the risk charge. And this will have to be considered as the additional capital to be met by the financial institution in addition to their Pillar I risks, as well as the existing Pillar II risks. In this paper, we present a risk assessment framework to model and assess climate change risks - for both credit and market risks. This framework helps in assessing the different scenarios, and how the different transition risks affect the risk associated with the different parties. This research paper delves on the topic of increase in concentration of greenhouse gases, that in turn causing global warming. It then considers the various scenarios of having the different risk drivers impacting credit and market risk of an institution, by understanding the transmission channels, and also considering the transition risk. The paper then focuses on the industry that’s fast seeing a disruption: automobile industry. The paper uses the framework to show how the climate changes and the change to the relevant policies have impacted the entire financial institution. Appropriate statistical models for forecasting, anomaly detection and scenario modeling are built to demonstrate how the framework can be used by the relevant agencies to understand their financial risks. The paper also focuses on the climate risk calculation for the Pillar II capital calculations, and how it will make sense for the bank to maintain this in addition to their regular Pillar I and Pillar II capital.

Keywords: Capital calculation, climate risk, credit risk, pillar II risk, scenario modeling.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 376

Authors: Xia Liu, Marek E. Bialkowski

Abstract:

This paper reports on investigations into capacity of a Multiple Input Multiple Output (MIMO) wireless communication system employing a uniform linear array (ULA) at the transmitter and either a uniform linear array (ULA) or a uniform circular array (UCA) antenna at the receiver. The transmitter is assumed to be surrounded by scattering objects while the receiver is postulated to be free from scattering objects. The Laplacian distribution of angle of arrival (AOA) of a signal reaching the receiver is postulated. Calculations of the MIMO system capacity are performed for two cases without and with the channel estimation errors. For estimating the MIMO channel, the scaled least square (SLS) and minimum mean square error (MMSE) methods are considered.

Keywords: MIMO, channel capacity, channel estimation, ULA, UCA, spatial correlation

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1334

Authors: Francesco Venuti, Simona Alfiero

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to develop an empirical research on the nature and consequences of corporate governance on Eurozone Insurance Industry risk taking attitude. More particularly, we analyzed the effect of public ownership on risk taking with respect to privately held Insurance Companies. We also analyzed the effects on risk taking attitude of different degrees of ownership concentration, directors compensation, and the dimension/diversity of the Board of Directors. Our results provide quite strong evidence that, coherently with the Agency Theory, publicly traded insurance companies with more concentrated ownership are less risky than the corresponding privately held.

Keywords: Agency theory, corporate governance, insurance companies, risk taking.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2828

Authors: Dongdong Zhang, Deran Zhang

Abstract:

In this paper, a Markovian risk model with two-type claims is considered. In such a risk model, the occurrences of the two type claims are described by two point processes {Ni(t), t ¸ 0}, i = 1, 2, where {Ni(t), t ¸ 0} is the number of jumps during the interval (0, t] for the Markov jump process {Xi(t), t ¸ 0} . The ruin probability ª(u) of a company facing such a risk model is mainly discussed. An integral equation satisfied by the ruin probability ª(u) is obtained and the bounds for the convergence rate of the ruin probability ª(u) are given by using key-renewal theorem.

Keywords: Risk model, ruin probability, Markov jump process, integral equation.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1330

Authors: Mousa Mojarrad, Amir Masoud Rahmani, Mehrab Mohebi

Abstract:

Detection, feature extraction and pose estimation of people in images and video is made challenging by the variability of human appearance, the complexity of natural scenes and the high dimensionality of articulated body models and also the important field in Image, Signal and Vision Computing in recent years. In this paper, four types of people in 2D dimension image will be tested and proposed. The system will extract the size and the advantage of them (such as: tall fat, short fat, tall thin and short thin) from image. Fat and thin, according to their result from the human body that has been extract from image, will be obtained. Also the system extract every size of human body such as length, width and shown them in output.

Keywords: Analysis of Image Processing, Canny Edge Detection, Human Body Recognition, Measurement, Pose Estimation, 2D Human Dimension.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2262

Authors: Alhusein Almahjoub, Dongyu Qiu

Abstract:

This paper deals with the random access procedure in next-generation networks and presents the solution to reduce total service time (TST) which is one of the most important performance metrics in current and future internet of things (IoT) based networks. The proposed solution focuses on the calculation of optimal transmission probability which maximizes the success probability and reduces TST. It uses the information of several idle preambles in every time slot, and based on it, it estimates the number of backlogged IoT devices using Naïve Bayes estimation which is a type of supervised learning in the machine learning domain. The estimation of backlogged devices is necessary since optimal transmission probability depends on it and the eNodeB does not have information about it. The simulations are carried out in MATLAB which verify that the proposed solution gives excellent performance.

Keywords: Random access, LTE/LTE-A, 5G, machine learning, Naïve Bayes estimation.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 391

Authors: Anton Stadler, Thorsten Ike

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a video based smoke detection algorithm based on TVL1 optical flow estimation. The main part of the algorithm is an accumulating system for motion angles and upward motion speed of the flow field. We optimized the usage of TVL1 flow estimation for the detection of smoke with very low smoke density. Therefore, we use adapted flow parameters and estimate the flow field on difference images. We show in theory and in evaluation that this improves the performance of smoke detection significantly. We evaluate the smoke algorithm using videos with different smoke densities and different backgrounds. We show that smoke detection is very reliable in varying scenarios. Further we verify that our algorithm is very robust towards crowded scenes disturbance videos.

Keywords: Low density, optical flow, upward smoke motion, video based smoke detection.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1372

Authors: Chen Sun, Nemai Chandra Karmakar

Abstract:

A novel direction-of-arrival (DOA) estimation technique, which uses a conventional multiple signal classification (MUSIC) algorithm with periodic signals, is applied to a single RF-port parasitic array antenna for direction finding. Simulation results show that the proposed method gives high resolution (1 degree) DOA estimation in an uncorrelated signal environment. The novelty lies in that the MUSIC algorithm is applied to a simplified antenna configuration. Only one RF port and one analogue-to-digital converter (ADC) are used in this antenna, which features low DC power consumption, low cost, and ease of fabrication. Modifications to the conventional MUSIC algorithm do not bring much additional complexity. The proposed technique is also free from the negative influence by the mutual coupling between elements. Therefore, the technique has great potential to be implemented into the existing wireless mobile communications systems, especially at the power consumption limited mobile terminals, to provide additional position location (PL) services.

Keywords: Direction-of-arrival (DOA) estimation, electronically steerable parasitic array radiator (ESPAR), multiple single classifications (MUSIC), position location.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2958

Authors: Amirhossein Karamoozian, Desheng Wu, Behzad Abbasnejad

Abstract:

Building information modelling (BIM) is a new technology to enhance the efficiency of project management in the construction industry. In addition to the potential benefits of this useful technology, there are various risks and obstacles to applying it in construction projects. In this study, a decision making approach is presented for risk assessment in BIM adoption in construction projects. Various risk factors of exerting BIM during different phases of the project lifecycle are identified with the help of Delphi method, experts’ opinions and related literature. Afterward, Shannon’s entropy and Fuzzy TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Situation) are applied to derive priorities of the identified risk factors. Results indicated that lack of knowledge between professional engineers about workflows in BIM and conflict of opinions between different stakeholders are the risk factors with the highest priority.

Keywords: Risk, BIM, Shannon’s entropy, Fuzzy TOPSIS, construction projects.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1426