Search results for: Technological forecasting. S curves
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1076

Search results for: Technological forecasting. S curves

866 Power Efficiency Characteristics of Magnetohydrodynamic Thermodynamic Gas Cycle

Authors: Mahmoud Huleihil

Abstract:

In this study, the performance of a thermodynamic gas cycle of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) power generation is considered and presented in terms of power efficiency curves. The dissipation mechanisms considered include: fluid friction modeled by means of the isentropic efficiency of the compressor, heat transfer leakage directly from the hot reservoir to the cold heat reservoir, and constant velocity of the MHD generator. The study demonstrates that power and efficiency vanish at the extremes of both slow and fast operating conditions. These points are demonstrated on power efficiency curves and the locus of efficiency at maximum power and the locus of maximum efficiency. Qualitatively, the considered loss mechanisms have a similar effect on the efficiency at maximum power operation and on maximum efficiency operation, thus these efficiencies are reduced, even for small values of the loss mechanisms.

Keywords: Magnetohydrodynamic generator, electrical efficiency, maximum power, maximum efficiency, heat engine.

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865 Application of Artificial Neural Network to Forecast Actual Cost of a Project to Improve Earned Value Management System

Authors: Seyed Hossein Iranmanesh, Mansoureh Zarezadeh

Abstract:

This paper presents an application of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to forecast actual cost of a project based on the earned value management system (EVMS). For this purpose, some projects randomly selected based on the standard data set , and it is produced necessary progress data such as actual cost ,actual percent complete , baseline cost and percent complete for five periods of project. Then an ANN with five inputs and five outputs and one hidden layer is trained to produce forecasted actual costs. The comparison between real and forecasted data show better performance based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) criterion. This approach could be applicable to better forecasting the project cost and result in decreasing the risk of project cost overrun, and therefore it is beneficial for planning preventive actions.

Keywords: Earned Value Management System (EVMS), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Estimate At Completion, Forecasting Methods, Project Performance Measurement.

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864 Advancing the Hi-Tech Ecosystem in the Periphery: The Case of the Sea of Galilee Region

Authors: Yael Dubinsky, Orit Hazzan

Abstract:

There is a constant need for hi-tech innovation to be decentralized to peripheral regions. This work describes how we applied Design Science Research (DSR) principles to define what we refer to as the Sea of Galilee (SoG) method. The goal of the SoG method is to harness existing and new technological initiatives in peripheral regions to create a socio-technological network that can initiate and maintain hi-tech activities. The SoG method consists of a set of principles, a stakeholder network, and actual hi-tech business initiatives, including their infrastructure and practices. The three cycles of DSR, the Relevance, Design, and Rigor cycles, lay out a research framework to sharpen the requirements, collect data from case studies, and iteratively refine the SoG method based on the existing knowledge base. We propose that the SoG method can be deployed by regional authorities that wish to be considered as smart regions (an extension of the notion of smart cities).

Keywords: Design Science Research, socio-technological initiatives, Sea of Galilee method, periphery stakeholder network, hi-tech initiatives.

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863 Analytical Development of a Failure Limit and Iso-Uplift Curves for Eccentrically Loaded Shallow Foundations

Authors: N. Abbas, S. Lagomarsino, S. Cattari

Abstract:

Examining existing experimental results for shallow rigid foundations subjected to vertical centric load (N), accompanied or not with a bending moment (M), two main non-linear mechanisms governing the cyclic response of the soil-foundation system can be distinguished: foundation uplift and soil yielding. A soil-foundation failure limit, is defined as a domain of resistance in the two dimensional (2D) load space (N, M) inside of which lie all the admissible combinations of loads; these latter correspond to a pure elastic, non-linear elastic or plastic behavior of the soil-foundation system, while the points lying on the failure limit correspond to a combination of loads leading to a failure of the soil-foundation system. In this study, the proposed resistance domain is constructed analytically based on mechanics. Original elastic limit, uplift initiation limit and iso-uplift limits are constructed inside this domain. These limits give a prediction of the mechanisms activated for each combination of loads applied to the foundation. A comparison of the proposed failure limit with experimental tests existing in the literature shows interesting results. Also, the developed uplift initiation limit and iso-uplift curves are confronted with others already proposed in the literature and widely used due to the absence of other alternatives, and remarkable differences are noted, showing evident errors in the past proposals and relevant accuracy for those given in the present work.

Keywords: Foundation uplift, Iso-uplift curves, Resistance domain, Soil yield.

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862 Disaggregating and Forecasting the Total Energy Consumption of a Building: A Case Study of a High Cooling Demand Facility

Authors: Juliana Barcelos Cordeiro, Khashayar Mahani, Farbod Farzan, Mohsen A. Jafari

Abstract:

Energy disaggregation has been focused by many energy companies since energy efficiency can be achieved when the breakdown of energy consumption is known. Companies have been investing in technologies to come up with software and/or hardware solutions that can provide this type of information to the consumer. On the other hand, not all people can afford to have these technologies. Therefore, in this paper, we present a methodology for breaking down the aggregate consumption and identifying the highdemanding end-uses profiles. These energy profiles will be used to build the forecast model for optimal control purpose. A facility with high cooling load is used as an illustrative case study to demonstrate the results of proposed methodology. We apply a high level energy disaggregation through a pattern recognition approach in order to extract the consumption profile of its rooftop packaged units (RTUs) and present a forecast model for the energy consumption.  

Keywords: Energy consumption forecasting, energy efficiency, load disaggregation, pattern recognition approach.

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861 Experimental Study on the Vibration Isolation Performance of Metal-Net Rubber Vibration Absorber

Authors: Su Yi Ming, Hou Ying, Zou Guang Ping

Abstract:

Metal-net rubber is a new dry friction damping material, compared with the traditional metal rubber, which has high mechanization degree, and the mechanical performance of metal-net rubber is more stable. Through the sine sweep experiment and random vibration experiment of metal-net rubber vibration isolator, the influence of several important factors such as the lines slope, relative density and wire diameter on the transfer rate, natural frequency and root-mean-square response acceleration of metal-net rubber vibration isolation system, were studied through the method of control variables. Also, several relevant change curves under different vibration levels were derived, and the effects of vibration level on the natural frequency and root-mean-square response acceleration were analyzed through the curves.

Keywords: Metal-net rubber vibration isolator, relative density, vibration level, wire diameter.

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860 Viscosity of Vegetable Oils and Biodiesel and Energy Generation

Authors: Thiago de O. Macedo, Roberto G. Pereira, Juan M. Pardal, Alexandre S. Soares, Valdir deJ. Lameira

Abstract:

The present work describes an experimental investigation concerning the determination of viscosity behavior with shear rate and temperature of edible oils: canola; sunflower; corn; soybean and the no edible oil: Jatropha curcas. Besides these, it was tested a blend of canola, corn and sunflower oils as well as sunflower and soybean biodiesel. Based on experiments, it was obtained shear stress and viscosity at different shear rates of each sample at 40ºC, as well as viscosity of each sample at various temperatures in the range of 24 to 85ºC. Furthermore, it was compared the curves obtained for the viscosity versus temperature with the curves obtained by modeling the viscosity dependency on temperature using the Vogel equation. Also a test in a stationary engine was performed in order to study the energy generation using blends of soybean oil and soybean biodiesel with diesel.

Keywords: Biofuel, energy generation, vegetable oil, viscosity.

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859 Forecasting Electricity Spot Price with Generalized Long Memory Modeling: Wavelet and Neural Network

Authors: Souhir Ben Amor, Heni Boubaker, Lotfi Belkacem

Abstract:

This aims of this paper is to forecast the electricity spot prices. First, we focus on modeling the conditional mean of the series so we adopt a generalized fractional -factor Gegenbauer process (k-factor GARMA). Secondly, the residual from the -factor GARMA model has used as a proxy for the conditional variance; these residuals were predicted using two different approaches. In the first approach, a local linear wavelet neural network model (LLWNN) has developed to predict the conditional variance using the Back Propagation learning algorithms. In the second approach, the Gegenbauer generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity process (G-GARCH) has adopted, and the parameters of the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model has estimated using the wavelet methodology based on the discrete wavelet packet transform (DWPT) approach. The empirical results have shown that the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model outperform the hybrid k-factor GARMA-LLWNN model, and find it is more appropriate for forecasts.

Keywords: k-factor, GARMA, LLWNN, G-GARCH, electricity price, forecasting.

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858 Identifying Relationships between Technology-based Services and ICTs: A Patent Analysis Approach

Authors: Chulhyun Kim, Seungkyum Kim, Moon-soo Kim

Abstract:

A variety of new technology-based services have emerged with the development of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs). Since technology-based services have technology-driven characteristics, the identification of relationships between technology-based services and ICTs would give meaningful implications. Thus, this paper proposes an approach for identifying the relationships between technology-based services and ICTs by analyzing patent documents. First, business model (BM) patents are classified into relevant service categories. Second, patent citation analysis is conducted to investigate the technological linkage and impacts between technology-based services and ICTs at macro level. Third, as a micro level analysis, patent co-classification analysis is employed to identify the technological linkage and coverage. The proposed approach could guide and help managers and designers of technology-based services to discover the opportunity of the development of new technology-based services in emerging service sectors.

Keywords: Technology-based Services, Information and Communication Technology (ICT), Business Model (BM) Patent, Patent Analysis, Technological Relationship

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857 PM10 Prediction and Forecasting Using CART: A Case Study for Pleven, Bulgaria

Authors: Snezhana G. Gocheva-Ilieva, Maya P. Stoimenova

Abstract:

Ambient air pollution with fine particulate matter (PM10) is a systematic permanent problem in many countries around the world. The accumulation of a large number of measurements of both the PM10 concentrations and the accompanying atmospheric factors allow for their statistical modeling to detect dependencies and forecast future pollution. This study applies the classification and regression trees (CART) method for building and analyzing PM10 models. In the empirical study, average daily air data for the city of Pleven, Bulgaria for a period of 5 years are used. Predictors in the models are seven meteorological variables, time variables, as well as lagged PM10 variables and some lagged meteorological variables, delayed by 1 or 2 days with respect to the initial time series, respectively. The degree of influence of the predictors in the models is determined. The selected best CART models are used to forecast future PM10 concentrations for two days ahead after the last date in the modeling procedure and show very accurate results.

Keywords: Cross-validation, decision tree, lagged variables, short-term forecasting.

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856 Seismic Fragility Assessment of Continuous Integral Bridge Frames with Variable Expansion Joint Clearances

Authors: P. Mounnarath, U. Schmitz, Ch. Zhang

Abstract:

Fragility analysis is an effective tool for the seismic vulnerability assessment of civil structures in the last several years. The design of the expansion joints according to various bridge design codes is almost inconsistent, and only a few studies have focused on this problem so far. In this study, the influence of the expansion joint clearances between the girder ends and the abutment backwalls on the seismic fragility assessment of continuous integral bridge frames is investigated. The gaps (ranging from 60 mm, 150 mm, 250 mm and 350 mm) are designed by following two different bridge design code specifications, namely, Caltrans and Eurocode 8-2. Five bridge models are analyzed and compared. The first bridge model serves as a reference. This model uses three-dimensional reinforced concrete fiber beam-column elements with simplified supports at both ends of the girder. The other four models also employ reinforced concrete fiber beam-column elements but include the abutment backfill stiffness and four different gap values. The nonlinear time history analysis is performed. The artificial ground motion sets, which have the peak ground accelerations (PGAs) ranging from 0.1 g to 1.0 g with an increment of 0.05 g, are taken as input. The soil-structure interaction and the P-Δ effects are also included in the analysis. The component fragility curves in terms of the curvature ductility demand to the capacity ratio of the piers and the displacement demand to the capacity ratio of the abutment sliding bearings are established and compared. The system fragility curves are then obtained by combining the component fragility curves. Our results show that in the component fragility analysis, the reference bridge model exhibits a severe vulnerability compared to that of other sophisticated bridge models for all damage states. In the system fragility analysis, the reference curves illustrate a smaller damage probability in the earlier PGA ranges for the first three damage states, they then show a higher fragility compared to other curves in the larger PGA levels. In the fourth damage state, the reference curve has the smallest vulnerability. In both the component and the system fragility analysis, the same trend is found that the bridge models with smaller clearances exhibit a smaller fragility compared to that with larger openings. However, the bridge model with a maximum clearance still induces a minimum pounding force effect.

Keywords: Expansion joint clearance, fiber beam-column element, fragility assessment, time history analysis.

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855 The Technological Problem of Simulation of the Logistics Center

Authors: Juraj Camaj, Anna Dolinayova, Jana Lalinska, Miroslav Bariak

Abstract:

Planning of infrastructure and processes in logistic center within the frame of various kinds of logistic hubs and technological activities in them represent quite complex problem. The main goal is to design appropriate layout, which enables to realize expected operation on the desired levels. The simulation software represents progressive contemporary experimental technique, which can support complex processes of infrastructure planning and all of activities on it. It means that simulation experiments, reflecting various planned infrastructure variants, investigate and verify their eligibilities in relation with corresponding expected operation. The inducted approach enables to make qualified decisions about infrastructure investments or measures, which derive benefit from simulation-based verifications. The paper represents simulation software for simulation infrastructural layout and technological activities in marshalling yard, intermodal terminal, warehouse and combination between them as the parts of logistic center.

Keywords: Marshalling yard, intermodal terminal, warehouse, transport technology, simulation.

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854 Technological Innovation Capabilities and Firm Performance

Authors: Richard C.M. Yam, William Lo, Esther P.Y. Tang, Antonio, K.W. Lau

Abstract:

Technological innovation capability (TIC) is defined as a comprehensive set of characteristics of a firm that facilities and supports its technological innovation strategies. An audit to evaluate the TICs of a firm may trigger improvement in its future practices. Such an audit can be used by the firm for self assessment or third-party independent assessment to identify problems of its capability status. This paper attempts to develop such an auditing framework that can help to determine the subtle links between innovation capabilities and business performance; and to enable the auditor to determine whether good practice is in place. The seven TICs in this study include learning, R&D, resources allocation, manufacturing, marketing, organization and strategic planning capabilities. Empirical data was acquired through a survey study of 200 manufacturing firms in the Hong Kong/Pearl River Delta (HK/PRD) region. Structural equation modelling was employed to examine the relationships among TICs and various performance indicators: sales performance, innovation performance, product performance, and sales growth. The results revealed that different TICs have different impacts on different performance measures. Organization capability was found to have the most influential impact. Hong Kong manufacturers are now facing the challenge of high-mix-low-volume customer orders. In order to cope with this change, good capability in organizing different activities among various departments is critical to the success of a company.

Keywords: Hong Kong/Pearl River Delta, Innovationaudit, Manufacturing, Technological innovation capability

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853 A Medical Resource Forecasting Model for Emergency Room Patients with Acute Hepatitis

Authors: R. J. Kuo, W. C. Cheng, W. C. Lien, T. J. Yang

Abstract:

Taiwan is a hyper endemic area for the Hepatitis B virus (HBV). The estimated total number of HBsAg carriers in the general population who are more than 20 years old is more than 3 million. Therefore, a case record review is conducted from January 2003 to June 2007 for all patients with a diagnosis of acute hepatitis who were admitted to the Emergency Department (ED) of a well-known teaching hospital. The cost for the use of medical resources is defined as the total medical fee. In this study, principal component analysis (PCA) is firstly employed to reduce the number of dimensions. Support vector regression (SVR) and artificial neural network (ANN) are then used to develop the forecasting model. A total of 117 patients meet the inclusion criteria. 61% patients involved in this study are hepatitis B related. The computational result shows that the proposed PCA-SVR model has superior performance than other compared algorithms. In conclusion, the Child-Pugh score and echogram can both be used to predict the cost of medical resources for patients with acute hepatitis in the ED.

Keywords: Acute hepatitis, Medical resource cost, Artificial neural network, Support vector regression.

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852 Drivers of Digital Product Innovation in Firms: An Empirical Study of Technological, Organizational, and Environmental Factors

Authors: Anne Theresa Eidhoff, Sarah E. Stief, Markus Voeth, Sarah Gundlach

Abstract:

With digitalization increasingly changing the rules of competition, firms face the need to adapt and assimilate digital technologies in order to remain competitive. Firms can choose from various possibilities to integrate digital technologies including the option to embed digital technologies aiming to innovate products or to develop digital products. However, the question of which specific factors influence a firm’s decision to pursue digital product innovation remains unanswered in research. By adopting the Technology-Organization-Environment (TOE)-framework we have designed a qualitative exploratory study including eleven German practitioners to investigate relevant contingency factors. Our results indicate that the most critical factors for a company’s decision to pursue digital product innovation can be found in the technological and environmental dimensions, namely customers, competitive pressure, technological change, as well as digitalization fit. 

Keywords: Digital innovation, digitalization, product innovation, TOE-framework.

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851 Advantages of Fuzzy Control Application in Fast and Sensitive Technological Processes

Authors: Radim Farana, Bogdan Walek, Michal Janosek, Jaroslav Zacek

Abstract:

This paper presents the advantages of fuzzy control use in technological processes control. The paper presents a real application of the Linguistic Fuzzy-Logic Control, developed at the University of Ostrava for the control of physical models in the Intelligent Systems Laboratory. The paper presents an example of a sensitive non-linear model, such as a magnetic levitation model and obtained results which show how modern information technologies can help to solve actual technical problems. A special method based on the LFLC controller with partial components is presented in this paper followed by the method of automatic context change, which is very helpful to achieve more accurate control results. The main advantage of the used system is its robustness in changing conditions demonstrated by comparing with conventional PID controller. This technology and real models are also used as a background for problem-oriented teaching, realized at the department for master students and their collaborative as well as individual final projects.

Keywords: Control, fuzzy logic, sensitive system, technological proves.

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850 A Thought on Exotic Statistical Distributions

Authors: R K Sinha

Abstract:

The statistical distributions are modeled in explaining nature of various types of data sets. Although these distributions are mostly uni-modal, it is quite common to see multiple modes in the observed distribution of the underlying variables, which make the precise modeling unrealistic. The observed data do not exhibit smoothness not necessarily due to randomness, but could also be due to non-randomness resulting in zigzag curves, oscillations, humps etc. The present paper argues that trigonometric functions, which have not been used in probability functions of distributions so far, have the potential to take care of this, if incorporated in the distribution appropriately. A simple distribution (named as, Sinoform Distribution), involving trigonometric functions, is illustrated in the paper with a data set. The importance of trigonometric functions is demonstrated in the paper, which have the characteristics to make statistical distributions exotic. It is possible to have multiple modes, oscillations and zigzag curves in the density, which could be suitable to explain the underlying nature of select data set.

Keywords: Exotic Statistical Distributions, Kurtosis, Mixture Distributions, Multi-modal

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849 Oil Displacement by Water in Hauterivian Sandstone Reservoir of Kashkari Oil Field

Authors: A. J. Nazari, S. Honma

Abstract:

This paper evaluates oil displacement by water in Hauterivian sandstone reservoir of Kashkari oil field in North of Afghanistan. The core samples of this oil field were taken out from well No-21st, and the relative permeability and fractional flow are analyzed. Steady state flow laboratory experiments are performed to empirically obtain the fractional flow curves and relative permeability in different water saturation ratio. The relative permeability represents the simultaneous flow behavior in the reservoir. The fractional flow approach describes the individual phases as fractional of the total flow. The fractional flow curve interprets oil displacement by water, and from the tangent of fractional flow curve can find out the average saturation behind the water front flow saturation. Therefore, relative permeability and fractional flow curves are suitable for describing the displacement of oil by water in a petroleum reservoir. The effects of irreducible water saturation, residual oil saturation on the displaceable amount of oil are investigated through Buckley-Leveret analysis.

Keywords: Fractional flow, oil displacement, relative permeability, simultaneously flow.

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848 The Low-carbon Transition Exploration of China's Traditional Manufacturing Industries

Authors: Heng Ma

Abstract:

Aiming at the problems existing in low-carbon technology of Chinese manufacturing industries, such as irrational energy structure, lack of technological innovation, financial constraints, this paper puts forward the suggestion that the leading role of the government is combined with the roles of enterprises and market. That is, through increasing the governmental funding the adjustment of the industrial structures and enhancement of the legal supervision are supported. Technological innovation is accelerated by the enterprises, and the carbon trading will be promoted so as to trigger the low-carbon revolution in Chinese manufacturing field.

Keywords: Low-carbon economy, traditional manufacturing industry, industrial structure, carbon emission reduction.

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847 Prediction the Deformation in Upsetting Process by Neural Network and Finite Element

Authors: H.Mohammadi Majd, M.Jalali Azizpour , Foad Saadi

Abstract:

In this paper back-propagation artificial neural network (BPANN) is employed to predict the deformation of the upsetting process. To prepare a training set for BPANN, some finite element simulations were carried out. The input data for the artificial neural network are a set of parameters generated randomly (aspect ratio d/h, material properties, temperature and coefficient of friction). The output data are the coefficient of polynomial that fitted on barreling curves. Neural network was trained using barreling curves generated by finite element simulations of the upsetting and the corresponding material parameters. This technique was tested for three different specimens and can be successfully employed to predict the deformation of the upsetting process

Keywords: Back-propagation artificial neural network(BPANN), prediction, upsetting

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846 Selected Technological Factors Influencing the Modulus of Elasticity of Concrete

Authors: Klara Krizova, Rudolf Hela

Abstract:

The topic of the article focuses on the evaluation of selected technological factors and their influence on resulting elasticity modulus of concrete. A series of various factors enter into the manufacturing process which, more or less, influences the elasticity modulus. This paper presents the results of concrete in which the influence of water coefficient and the size of maximum fraction of the aggregate on the static elasticity modulus were monitored. Part of selected results of the long-term programme was discussed in which a wide scope of various variants of proposals for the composition of concretes was evaluated.

Keywords: Mix design, water-cement ratio, aggregate, modulus of elasticity.

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845 The Supplier Relationship Management Market Trends

Authors: Eulálio G. Campelo F., Wolffried Stucky

Abstract:

The paper introduces and discusses definitions and concepts from the supplier relationship management area. This review has the goal to provide readers with the basic conditions to understand the market mechanisms and the technological developments of the SRM market. Further on, the work gives a picture of the actual business environment in which the SRM vendors are in, and the main trends in the field, based on the main SRM functionalities i.e. e-Procurement, e-Sourcing and Supplier Enablement, which indicates users and software providers the future technological developments and practises that will take place in this area in the next couple of years.

Keywords: Supplier Relationship Management, e-Procurement, e-Sourcing, Supplier Enablement.

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844 Forecast Based on an Empirical Probability Function with an Adjusted Error Using Propagation of Error

Authors: Oscar Javier Herrera, Manuel Ángel Camacho

Abstract:

This paper addresses a cutting edge method of business demand forecasting, based on an empirical probability function when the historical behavior of the data is random. Additionally, it presents error determination based on the numerical method technique ‘propagation of errors.’ The methodology was conducted characterization and process diagnostics demand planning as part of the production management, then new ways to predict its value through techniques of probability and to calculate their mistake investigated, it was tools used numerical methods. All this based on the behavior of the data. This analysis was determined considering the specific business circumstances of a company in the sector of communications, located in the city of Bogota, Colombia. In conclusion, using this application it was possible to obtain the adequate stock of the products required by the company to provide its services, helping the company reduce its service time, increase the client satisfaction rate, reduce stock which has not been in rotation for a long time, code its inventory, and plan reorder points for the replenishment of stock.

Keywords: Demand Forecasting, Empirical Distribution, Propagation of Error.

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843 A Study on Barreling Behavior during Upsetting Process using Artificial Neural Networks with Levenberg Algorithm

Authors: H.Mohammadi Majd, M.Jalali Azizpour

Abstract:

In this paper back-propagation artificial neural network (BPANN )with Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm is employed to predict the deformation of the upsetting process. To prepare a training set for BPANN, some finite element simulations were carried out. The input data for the artificial neural network are a set of parameters generated randomly (aspect ratio d/h, material properties, temperature and coefficient of friction). The output data are the coefficient of polynomial that fitted on barreling curves. Neural network was trained using barreling curves generated by finite element simulations of the upsetting and the corresponding material parameters. This technique was tested for three different specimens and can be successfully employed to predict the deformation of the upsetting process

Keywords: Back-propagation artificial neural network(BPANN), prediction, upsetting

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842 Forecasting the Fluctuation of Currency Exchange Rate Using Random Forest

Authors: L. Basha, E. Gjika

Abstract:

The exchange rate is one of the most important economic variables, especially for a small, open economy such as Albania. Its effect is noticeable on one country's competitiveness, trade and current account, inflation, wages, domestic economic activity and bank stability. This study investigates the fluctuation of Albania’s exchange rates using monthly average foreign currency, Euro (Eur) to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate with a time span from January 2008 to June 2021 and the macroeconomic factors that have a significant effect on the exchange rate. Initially, the Random Forest Regression algorithm is constructed to understand the impact of economic variables in the behavior of monthly average foreign currencies exchange rates. Then the forecast of macro-economic indicators for 12 months was performed using time series models. The predicted values received are placed in the random forest model in order to obtain the average monthly forecast of Euro to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate for the period July 2021 to June 2022.

Keywords: Exchange rate, Random Forest, time series, Machine Learning, forecasting.

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841 Kinetic Spectrophotometric Determination of Ramipril in Commercial Dosage Forms

Authors: Nafisur Rahman, Habibur Rahman, Syed Najmul Hejaz Azmi

Abstract:

This paper presents a simple and sensitive kinetic spectrophotometric method for the determination of ramipril in commercial dosage forms. The method is based on the reaction of the drug with 1-chloro-2,4-dinitrobenzene (CDNB) in dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO) at 100 ± 1ºC. The reaction is followed spectrophotometrically by measuring the rate of change of the absorbance at 420 nm. Fixed-time (ΔA) and equilibrium methods are adopted for constructing the calibration curves. Both the calibration curves were found to be linear over the concentration ranges 20 - 220 μg/ml. The regression analysis of calibration data yielded the linear equations: Δ A = 6.30 × 10-4 + 1.54 × 10-3 C and A = 3.62 × 10-4 + 6.35 × 10-3 C for fixed time (Δ A) and equilibrium methods, respectively. The limits of detection (LOD) for fixed time and equilibrium methods are 1.47 and 1.05 μg/ml, respectively. The method has been successfully applied to the determination of ramipril in commercial dosage forms. Statistical comparison of the results shows that there is no significant difference between the proposed methods and Abdellatef-s spectrophotometric method.

Keywords: Equilibrium method, Fixed-time (ΔA) method, Ramipril, Spectrophotometry.

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840 Experimental Characterization of Anisotropic Mechanical Properties of Textile Woven Fabric

Authors: Rym Zouari, Sami Ben Amar, Abdelwaheb Dogui

Abstract:

This paper presents an experimental characterization of the anisotropic mechanical behavior of 4 textile woven fabrics with different weaves (Twill 3, Plain, Twill4 and Satin 4) by off-axis tensile testing. These tests are applied according seven directions oriented by 15° increment with respect to the warp direction. Fixed and articulated jaws are used. Analysis of experimental results is done through global (Effort/Elongation curves) and local scales. Global anisotropy was studied from the Effort/Elongation curves: shape, breaking load (Frup), tensile elongation (EMT), tensile energy (WT) and linearity index (LT). Local anisotropy was studied from the measurement of strain tensor components in the central area of the specimen as a function of testing orientation and effort: longitudinal strain ɛL, transverse strain ɛT and shearing ɛLT. The effect of used jaws is also analyzed.

Keywords: Anisotropy, Off-axis tensile test, strain fields, Textile woven fabric.

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839 Influence of Paralleled Capacitance Effect in Well-defined Multiple Value Logical Level System with Active Load

Authors: Chih Chin Yang, Yen Chun Lin, Hsiao Hsuan Cheng

Abstract:

Three similar negative differential resistance (NDR) profiles with both high peak to valley current density ratio (PVCDR) value and high peak current density (PCD) value in unity resonant tunneling electronic circuit (RTEC) element is developed in this paper. The PCD values and valley current density (VCD) values of the three NDR curves are all about 3.5 A and 0.8 A, respectively. All PV values of NDR curves are 0.40 V, 0.82 V, and 1.35 V, respectively. The VV values are 0.61 V, 1.07 V, and 1.69 V, respectively. All PVCDR values reach about 4.4 in three NDR curves. The PCD value of 3.5 A in triple PVCDR RTEC element is better than other resonant tunneling devices (RTD) elements. The high PVCDR value is concluded the lower VCD value about 0.8 A. The low VCD value is achieved by suitable selection of resistors in triple PVCDR RTEC element. The low PV value less than 1.35 V possesses low power dispersion in triple PVCDR RTEC element. The designed multiple value logical level (MVLL) system using triple PVCDR RTEC element provides equidistant logical level. The logical levels of MVLL system are about 0.2 V, 0.8 V, 1.5 V, and 2.2 V from low voltage to high voltage and then 2.2 V, 1.3 V, 0.8 V, and 0.2 V from high voltage back to low voltage in half cycle of sinusoid wave. The output level of four levels MVLL system is represented in 0.3 V, 1.1 V, 1.7 V, and 2.6 V, which satisfies the NMP condition of traditional two-bit system. The remarkable logical characteristic of improved MVLL system with paralleled capacitor are with four significant stable logical levels about 220 mV, 223 mV, 228 mV, and 230 mV. The stability and articulation of logical levels of improved MVLL system are outstanding. The average holding time of improved MVLL system is approximately 0.14 μs. The holding time of improved MVLL system is fourfold than of basic MVLL system. The function of additional capacitor in the improved MVLL system is successfully discovered.

Keywords: Capacitance, Logical level, Constant current source

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838 Investigation of Stoneley Waves in Multilayered Plates

Authors: Bing Li, Tong Lu, Lei Qiang

Abstract:

Stoneley waves are interface waves that propagate at the interface between two solid media. In this study, the dispersion characteristics and wave structures of Stoneley waves in elastic multilayered plates are displayed and investigated. With a perspective of bulk wave, a reasonable assumption of the potential function forms of the expansion wave and shear wave in nth layer medium is adopted, and the characteristic equation of Stoneley waves in a three-layered plate is given in a determinant form. The dispersion curves and wave structures are solved and presented in both numerical and simulation results. It is observed that two Stoneley wave modes exist in a three-layered plate, that conspicuous dispersion occurs on low frequency band, that the velocity of each Stoneley wave mode approaches the corresponding Stoneley wave velocity at interface between two half infinite spaces. The wave structures reveal that the in-plane displacement of Stoneley waves are relatively high at interfaces, which shows great potential for interface defects detection.

Keywords: Characteristic equation, interface waves, dispersion curves, potential function, Stoneley waves, wave structures.

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837 Educational and Technological Perspectives in Doraemon - Hope and Dreams in Doraemon’s Gadgets

Authors: Miho Tsukamoto

Abstract:

A Japanese manga character, Doraemon, was made by Fujiko F. Fujio in 1969, was made into animation in 1973. The main character, Doraemon, is a robot cat, and is a well-known Japanese animated character. However, Doraemon is not only regarded as an animation character but it is also used in educational and technological programs in Japan. This paper focuses on the background of Doraemon, educational and technological perspectives on Doraemon, and comparison of the original Japanese animation and the US remade version, and the animator Fujiko’s dreams and hopes for Doraemon will be examined. Since Doraemon has been exported as animation and manga to overseas, perspectives toward Doraemon have changed. For example, changes of stories and characters can been seen in the present Doraemon animation. Not only the overseas TV productions which broadcast Doraemon but also the Japanese production has to consider violence, sexuality, etc. when editing episodes. Because of representation of cultural differences, Japanese animation is thought to contain more violence, discrimination, and sexuality in animation. With responses from overseas, the Japanese production was cautious about the US remade version. They cared about the US Broadcast Standard, and tried to consider US customs and culture in the US remade version. Seeing the difference, acculturation is necessary for exports of animation overseas. Moreover, observing different aspects of Doraemon domestically, Doraemon provides dreams and hopes to children.

Keywords: Animation, Change, Doraemon, Gadgets, Manga, Technology.

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