Search results for: modeling using hidden state variables

Authors: Daniel F. García, Adrián Fernández

Abstract:

Today, computer systems are more and more complex and support growing security risks. The security managers need to find effective security risk assessment methodologies that allow modeling well the increasing complexity of current computer systems but also maintaining low the complexity of the assessment procedure. This paper provides a brief analysis of common security risk assessment methodologies leading to the selection of a proper methodology to fulfill these requirements. Then, a detailed analysis of the most effective methodology is accomplished, presenting numerical examples to demonstrate how easy it is to use.

Keywords: Computer security, qualitative and quantitative methods, risk assessment methodologies, security risk assessment.

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Authors: Ahmet Y. Arabul, Ibrahim Senol, Fatma Keskin Arabul, Mustafa G. Aydeniz, Yasemin Oner, Gokhan Kalkan

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In the standards of IEC 60076-2 and IEC 60076-7, three different hot-spot temperature estimation methods are suggested. In this study, the algorithms which used in hot-spot temperature calculations are analyzed by comparing the algorithms with the results of an experimental set-up made by a Transformer Monitoring System (TMS) in use. In tested system, TMS uses only top oil temperature and load ratio for hot-spot temperature calculation. And also, it uses some constants from standards which are on agreed statements tables. During the tests, it came out that hot-spot temperature calculation method is just making a simple calculation and not uses significant all other variables that could affect the hot-spot temperature.

Keywords: Hot-spot temperature, monitoring system, power transformer, smart grid.

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Authors: Mahmood Reza Shakarami, Reza Sedaghati

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Electricity market activities and a growing demand for electricity have led to heavily stressed power systems. This requires operation of the networks closer to their stability limits. Power system operation is affected by stability related problems, leading to unpredictable system behavior. Voltage stability refers to the ability of a power system to sustain appropriate voltage levels through large and small disturbances. Steady-state voltage stability is concerned with limits on the existence of steady-state operating points for the network. FACTS devices can be utilized to increase the transmission capacity, the stability margin and dynamic behavior or serve to ensure improved power quality. Their main capabilities are reactive power compensation, voltage control and power flow control. Among the FACTS controllers, Static Var Compensator (SVC) provides fast acting dynamic reactive compensation for voltage support during contingency events. In this paper, voltage stability assessment with appropriate representations of tap-changer transformers and SVC is investigated. Integrating both of these devices is the main topic of this paper. Effect of the presence of tap-changing transformers on static VAR compensator controller parameters and ratings necessary to stabilize load voltages at certain values are highlighted. The interrelation between transformer off nominal tap ratios and the SVC controller gains and droop slopes and the SVC rating are found. P-V curves are constructed to calculate loadability margins.

Keywords: SVC, voltage stability, P-V curve, reactive power, tap changing transformer.

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Authors: Shougi Suliman Abosuliman, Arun Kumar, Firoz Alam

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Disaster preparedness is a key success factor for any effective disaster management practices. This paper evaluates the disaster preparedness and management in Saudi Arabia using an empirical investigation approach. It presents the results of the survey conducted by interviewing representatives of the Saudi decision-makers and administrators responsible for disaster control in Jeddah before, during and after flooding in 2009 and 2010. First, demographics of the respondents are presented, followed by quantitative analysis of their views and experiences regarding the Kingdom’s readiness before and after each flood. This is shown as a series of dependent and independent variables. Following this is a list of respondents’ priorities for disaster preparation in the Kingdom.

Keywords: Disaster response policy, crisis management, effective service delivery.

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Authors: Encarnación Álvarez, Rosa M. García-Fernández, Francisco J. Blanco-Encomienda, Juan F. Muñoz

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The European Union Survey on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) is a popular survey which provides information on income, poverty, social exclusion and living conditions of households and individuals in the European Union. The EU-SILC contains variables which may contain outliers. The presence of outliers can have an impact on the measures and indicators used by the EU-SILC. In this paper, we used data sets from various countries to analyze the presence of outliers. In addition, we obtain some indicators after removing these outliers, and a comparison between both situations can be observed. Finally, some conclusions are obtained.

Keywords: Headcount index, poverty line, risk of poverty, skewness coefficient.

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Authors: Zane Bulderberga

Abstract:

Spatial dimension in development planning is becoming more topical in 21^st century as a result of changes in population structure. Sustainable spatial development focuses on identifying and using territorial advantages to foster the harmonized development of the entire country, reducing negative effects of population concentration, increasing availability and mobility. EU and national development planning documents state polycentrism as main tool for balance spatial development, including investment concentration in growth centres. If mutual cooperation of growth centres as well as urban–rural cooperation is not fostered, then territorial differences can deepen and create unbalanced development.

The aim of research: to evaluate the urban–rural interaction, elaborating spatial development scenarios in framework of Latvian regional policy. To perform the research monographic, comparison, abstract–logical method, synthesis and analysis will be used when studying the theoretical aspects of research aiming at collecting the ideas of scientists from different countries, concepts, regulations as well as to create meaningful scientific discussion. Hierarchy analysis process (AHP) will be used to state further scenarios of spatial development in Latvia.

Experts from various institutions recognized urban – rural interaction and co-operation as an essential tool for the development. The most important factors for balanced spatial development in Latvia are availability of public transportation and improvement of service availability. Evaluating the three alternative scenarios, it was concluded that the urban – rural partnership will ensure a balanced development in Latvian regions.

Keywords: Rural – urban interaction, rural – urban cooperation, spatial development, AHP.

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Authors: Serge Provost, Yishan Zang

Abstract:

Following a review of various approaches that are utilized for classifying the tail behavior of a distribution, an easily implementable methodology that relies on an arctangent transformation is presented. The classification criterion is actually based on the difference between two specific quantiles of the transformed distribution. The resulting categories enable one to classify distributional tails as distinctly short, short, nearly medium, medium, extended medium and somewhat long, providing that at least two moments exist. Distributions possessing a single moment are said to be long tailed while those failing to have any finite moments are classified as having an extremely long tail. Several illustrative examples will be presented.

Keywords: Arctangent transformation, change of variables, heavy-tailed distributions, tail classification.

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Authors: H. Hosseini, B. V. Berdyshev, I. Iskopintsev

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This paper presents a rheological model for producing shape-memory thermoplastic polymers. Shape-memory occurs as a result of internal rearrangement of the structural elements of a polymer. A non-linear viscoelastic model was developed that allows qualitative and quantitative prediction of the stress-strain behavior of shape-memory polymers during heating. This research was done to develop a technique to determine the maximum possible change in size of shape-memory products during heating. The rheological model used in this work was particularly suitable for defining process parameters and constructive parameters of the processing equipment.

Keywords: Elastic deformation, heating, shape-memory polymers, stress-strain behavior.

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Authors: Kunyanuth Kularbphettong, Phanu Waraporn, Cholticha Tongsiri

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This research aims to create a model for analysis of student motivation behavior on e-Learning based on association rule mining techniques in case of the Information Technology for Communication and Learning Course at Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. The model was created under association rules, one of the data mining techniques with minimum confidence. The results showed that the student motivation behavior model by using association rule technique can indicate the important variables that influence the student motivation behavior on e-Learning.

Keywords: Motivation behavior, e-learning, moodle log, association rule mining.

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Authors: Connie Zheng

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This paper critiques several exiting strategic international human resource management (SIHRM) frameworks and discusses their limitations to apply directly to emerging multinational enterprises (EMNEs), especially those generated from China and other BRICS nations. To complement the existing SIHRM frameworks, key variables relevant to emerging economies are identified and the extended model with particular reference to EMNEs is developed with several research propositions. It is believed that the extended model would better capture the recent development of MNEs in transition, and alert emerging international managers to address several human resource management challenges in the global context

Keywords: China, human resource, MNEs, strategy

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Authors: Kholod J. Alotaibi, Andrew M. Gravell

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Usability is an important software quality that is often neglected at the design stage. Although methods exist to incorporate elements of usability engineering, there is a need for more balanced usability focused methods that can enhance the experience of software usability for users. In this regard, the potential for Usage-Centred Design is explored with respect to requirements gathering and is shown to lead to high software usability besides other benefits. It achieves this through its focus on usage, defining essential use cases, by conducting task modeling, encouraging user collaboration, refining requirements, and so on. The requirements gathering process in UgCD is described in detail.

Keywords: Requirements gathering, Usability, Usage-Centred Design.

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Authors: Mahmoud Zarrini, R. N. Pralhad

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In this paper, mathematical modeling of detonation in the ground is studied. Estimation of flow parameters such as velocity, maximum velocity, acceleration, maximum acceleration, shock pressure as a result of an explosion in the ground have been computed in an appropriate dynamic model approach. The variation of these parameters with the diameter of detonation place (L), density of earth or stone (¤ü), time decay of detonation (T), peak pressure (Pm), and time (t) have been analyzed. The model has been developed from the concept of underwater explosions [Refs. [1]-[3]] with appropriate changes to the present model requirements.

Keywords: Shock velocity, detonation, shock acceleration, shock pressure.

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Authors: Fatema Akram, Mohammad G. Rasul, M. Masud K. Khan, M. Sharif I. I. Amir

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Australia is a country of some 7,700 million square kilometers with a population of about 22.6 million. At present water security is a major challenge for Australia. In some areas the use of water resources is approaching and in some parts it is exceeding the limits of sustainability. A focal point of proposed national water conservation programs is the recycling of both urban stormwater and treated wastewater. But till now it is not widely practiced in Australia, and particularly stormwater is neglected. In Australia, only 4% of stormwater and rainwater is recycled, whereas less than 1% of reclaimed wastewater is reused within urban areas. Therefore, accurately monitoring, assessing and predicting the availability, quality and use of this precious resource are required for better management. As stormwater is usually of better quality than untreated sewage or industrial discharge, it has better public acceptance for recycling and reuse, particularly for non-potable use such as irrigation, watering lawns, gardens, etc. Existing stormwater recycling practice is far behind of research and no robust technologies developed for this purpose. Therefore, there is a clear need for using modern technologies for assessing feasibility of stormwater harvesting and reuse. Numerical modeling has, in recent times, become a popular tool for doing this job. It includes complex hydrological and hydraulic processes of the study area. The hydrologic model computes stormwater quantity to design the system components, and the hydraulic model helps to route the flow through stormwater infrastructures. Nowadays water quality module is incorporated with these models. Integration of Geographic Information System (GIS) with these models provides extra advantage of managing spatial information. However for the overall management of a stormwater harvesting project, Decision Support System (DSS) plays an important role incorporating database with model and GIS for the proper management of temporal information. Additionally DSS includes evaluation tools and Graphical user interface. This research aims to critically review and discuss all the aspects of stormwater harvesting and reuse such as available guidelines of stormwater harvesting and reuse, public acceptance of water reuse, the scopes and recommendation for future studies. In addition to these, this paper identifies, understand and address the importance of modern technologies capable of proper management of stormwater harvesting and reuse.

Keywords: Stormwater Management, Stormwater Harvesting and Reuse, Numerical Modeling, Geographic Information System (GIS), Decision Support System (DSS), Database.

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Authors: Akihiro Iijima, Kimiyo Kumagai

Abstract:

A long-term campaign for monitoring the concentration of atmospheric Particulate Matter (PM) was conducted at multiple sites located in the center and suburbs of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area in Japan. The concentration of fine PM has shown a declining trend over the last two decades. A positive matrix factorization model elucidated that the contribution of combustion sources was drastically reduced. In Japan, the regulations on vehicle exhaust emissions were phased in and gradually tightened over the last two decades, which has triggered a notable reduction in PM emissions from automobiles and has contributed to the mitigation of the problem of fine PM pollution.

Keywords: Air pollution, Diesel-powered vehicle, Positive matrix factorization, Receptor modeling.

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Authors: D. Jayalakshmi, S. Bhosale

Abstract:

This paper, in its first part, presents the state-of-the-art literature of design approaches for geosynthetic reinforced unpaved roads. The literature starting since 1970 and the critical appraisal of flexible pavement design by Giroud and Han (2004) and Jonathan Fannin (2006) is presented. The design example is illustrated for Indian conditions. The example emphasizes the results computed by Giroud and Han's (2004) design method with the Indian road congress guidelines by IRC SP 72 -2015. The input data considered are related to the subgrade soil condition of Maharashtra State in India. The unified soil classification of the subgrade soil is inorganic clay with high plasticity (CH), which is expansive with a California bearing ratio (CBR) of 2% to 3%. The example exhibits the unreinforced case and geotextile as reinforcement by varying the rut depth from 25 mm to 100 mm. The present result reveals the base thickness for the unreinforced case from the IRC design catalogs is in good agreement with Giroud and Han (2004) approach for a range of 75 mm to 100 mm rut depth. Since Giroud and Han (2004) method is applicable for both reinforced and unreinforced cases, for the same data with appropriate Nc factor, for the same rut depth, the base thickness for the reinforced case has arrived for the Indian condition. From this trial, for the CBR of 2%, the base thickness reduction due to geotextile inclusion is 35%. For the CBR range of 2% to 5% with different stiffness in geosynthetics, the reduction in base course thickness will be evaluated, and the validation will be executed by the full-scale accelerated pavement testing set up at the College of Engineering Pune (COE), India.

Keywords: Base thickness, design approach, equation, full scale accelerated pavement set up, Indian condition.

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Authors: T. Hussain, M. W. Siddiqi, A. Iqbal

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The study is aimed to test causal relationship between growth and unemployment, using time series data for Pakistan from 1972 to 2006. Growth is considered to be a pathway to decrease the level of unemployment. Unemployment is a social and political issue. It is a phenomenon where human resources are wasted leading to deacceleration in growth. Johanson Cointegration shows that there is long run relationship between growth and unemployment. For short run dynamics and causality, the study utilizes Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results of VECM indicate that there is short and long run causal relation between growth and unemployment including capital, labor and human capital as explanatory variables.

Keywords: Economic Growth, Unemployment, Cointegrationand Causality.

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Authors: Y. N. Phang, E. F. Loh

Abstract:

Zero inflated strict arcsine model is a newly developed model which is found to be appropriate in modeling overdispersed count data. In this study, we extend zero inflated strict arcsine model to zero inflated strict arcsine regression model by taking into consideration the extra variability caused by extra zeros and covariates in count data. Maximum likelihood estimation method is used in estimating the parameters for this zero inflated strict arcsine regression model.

Keywords: Overdispersed count data, maximum likelihood estimation, simulated annealing.

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Authors: A. Jamekhorshid, S. M. Sadrameli

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This paper presents the modeling results of an innovative system for the temperature control in the interior compartment of a stationary automobile facing the solar energy from the sun. A very thin layer of PCM inside a pouch placed in the ceiling of the car in which the heating energy is absorbed and release with melting and solidification of phase change materials. As a result the temperature of the car interior is maintained in the comfort condition. The amount of required PCM has been calculated to be about 755 g. The PCM-temperature controlling system is simple and has a potential to be implemented as a practical solution to prevent undesirable heating of the automobile-s cabin.

Keywords: Phase Change Material (PCM), automobile's cabin, temperature control

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Authors: Moudar H. A. Zgoul, Amin Al Zamer

Abstract:

Adhesive materials and adhesion have been the focal point of multiple research works related to numerous applications, particularly, aerospace, and aviation industries. To enhance the properties of conventional adhesive materials, additives have been introduced to the mix in order to enhance their mechanical and physical properties by creating a hybrid adhesive material. The evaluation of the mechanical properties of such hybrid adhesive materials is thus of an essential requirement for the purpose of properly modeling their behavior accurately. This paper presents an approach/tool to simulate the behavior such hybrid adhesives in a way that will allow researchers to better understand their behavior while in service.

Keywords: Adhesive materials, analysis, hybrid adhesives, mechanical properties, simulation.

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Authors: U. Chattaraj, K. Dhusiya, M. Raviteja

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Perception reaction time of drivers is an outcome of human thought process, which is vague and approximate in nature and also varies from driver to driver. So, in this study a fuzzy logic based model for prediction of the same has been presented, which seems suitable. The control factors, like, age, experience, intensity of driving of the driver, speed of the vehicle and distance of stimulus have been considered as premise variables in the model, in which the perception reaction time is the consequence variable. Results show that the model is able to explain the impacts of the control factors on perception reaction time properly.

Keywords: Driver, fuzzy logic, perception reaction time, premise variable.

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Authors: J. P. Dubois

Abstract:

This paper reports the feasibility of the ARMA model to describe a bursty video source transmitting over a AAL5 ATM link (VBR traffic). The traffic represents the activity of the action movie "Lethal Weapon 3" transmitted over the ATM network using the Fore System AVA-200 ATM video codec with a peak rate of 100 Mbps and a frame rate of 25. The model parameters were estimated for a single video source and independently multiplexed video sources. It was found that the model ARMA (2, 4) is well-suited for the real data in terms of average rate traffic profile, probability density function, autocorrelation function, burstiness measure, and the pole-zero distribution of the filter model.

Keywords: ARMA, ATM networks, burstiness, multimediatraffic, VBR video.

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Authors: S. Ganesh, L. Raguraman, E. Anushya, J. krishnasree

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Voltage sags are the most common power quality disturbance in the distribution system. It occurs due to the fault in the electrical network or by the starting of a large induction motor and this can be solved by using the custom power devices such as Dynamic Voltage Restorer (DVR). In this paper DVR is proposed to compensate voltage sags on critical loads dynamically. The DVR consists of VSC, injection transformers, passive filters and energy storage (lead acid battery). By injecting an appropriate voltage, the DVR restores a voltage waveform and ensures constant load voltage. The simulation and experimental results of a DVR using MATLAB software shows clearly the performance of the DVR in mitigating voltage sags.

Keywords: Dynamic voltage restorer, Voltage sags, Power quality, Injection methods.

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Authors: C. Alexandru, P. Alexandru

Abstract:

The paper presents the virtual model of the active suspension system used for improving the dynamic behavior of a motor vehicle. The study is focused on the design of the control system, the purpose being to minimize the effect of the road disturbances (which are considered as perturbations for the control system). The analysis is performed for a quarter-car model, which corresponds to the suspension system of the front wheel, by using the DFC (Design for Control) software solution EASY5 (Engineering Analysis Systems) of MSC Software. The controller, which is a PIDbased device, is designed through a parametric optimization with the Matrix Algebra Tool (MAT), considering the gain factors as design variables, while the design objective is to minimize the overshoot of the indicial response.

Keywords: Active suspension, Controller, Dynamics, Vehicle

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Authors: Takashi Kaburagi, Masashi Takenaka, Yosuke Kurihara, Takashi Matsumoto

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Major depressive disorder (MDD) is one of the most common mental illnesses today. It is believed to be caused by a combination of several factors, including stress. Stress can be quantitatively evaluated using the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI), one of the best indices to evaluate anxiety. Although STAI scores are widely used in applications ranging from clinical diagnosis to basic research, the scores are calculated based on a self-reported questionnaire. An objective evaluation is required because the subject may intentionally change his/her answers if multiple tests are carried out. In this article, we present a modified index called the “multi-channel Laterality Index at Rest (mc-LIR)” by recording the brain activity from a wider area of the frontal lobe using multi-channel functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS). The presented index aims to measure multiple positions near the F_pz defined by the international 10-20 system positioning. Using 24 subjects, the dependencies on the number of measuring points used to calculate the mc-LIR and its correlation coefficients with the STAI scores are reported. Furthermore, a simple linear regression was performed to estimate the STAI scores from mc-LIR. The cross-validation error is also reported. The experimental results show that using multiple positions near the Fpz will improve the correlation coefficients and estimation than those using only two positions.

Keywords: Stress, functional near-infrared spectroscopy, frontal lobe, state-trait anxiety inventory score.

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Authors: Brahim Belattar, Abdelhabib Bourouis

Abstract:

This paper describes important features of JAPROSIM, a free and open source simulation library implemented in Java programming language. It provides a framework for building discrete event simulation models. The process interaction world view adopted by JAPROSIM is discussed. We present the architecture and major components of the simulation library. A pedagogical example is given in order to illustrate how to use JAPROSIM for building discrete event simulation models. Further motivations are discussed and suggestions for improving our work are given.

Keywords: Discrete Event Simulation, Object-Oriented Simulation, JAPROSIM, Process Interaction Worldview, Java-based modeling and simulation.

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Authors: B. G. Sheeparamatti, Prashant Hanasi, Vanita Abbigeri

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The objective of this work is to carryout critical comparison of different actuation mechanisms like electrostatic, thermal, piezoelectric, and magnetic with reference to a micro cantilever. The relevant parameters like force generated, displacement are compared in actuation methods. With these results, helps in choosing the best actuation method for a particular application. In this study, Comsol/Multiphysics software is used. Modeling and simulation is done by considering the micro cantilever of same dimensions as an actuator using all the above mentioned actuation techniques. In addition to their small size, micro actuators consume very little power and are capable of accurate results. In this work, a comparison of actuation mechanisms is done to decide the efficient system in micro domain.

Keywords: Actuation techniques, microswitch, micro actuator, microsystems.

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Authors: Pavel Král, Jana Klečková, Christophe Cerisara

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This paper deals with automatic sentence modality recognition in French. In this work, only prosodic features are considered. The sentences are recognized according to the three following modalities: declarative, interrogative and exclamatory sentences. This information will be used to animate a talking head for deaf and hearing-impaired children. We first statistically study a real radio corpus in order to assess the feasibility of the automatic modeling of sentence types. Then, we test two sets of prosodic features as well as two different classifiers and their combination. We further focus our attention on questions recognition, as this modality is certainly the most important one for the target application.

Keywords: Automatic sentences modality recognition (ASMR), fundamental frequency (F0), energy, modal corpus, prosody.

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Authors: P. Sengottuvelan, T. Gopalakrishnan

Abstract:

Web Usage Mining is the application of data mining techniques to find usage patterns from web log data, so as to grasp required patterns and serve the requirements of Web-based applications. User’s expertise on the internet may be improved by minimizing user’s web access latency. This may be done by predicting the future search page earlier and the same may be prefetched and cached. Therefore, to enhance the standard of web services, it is needed topic to research the user web navigation behavior. Analysis of user’s web navigation behavior is achieved through modeling web navigation history. We propose this technique which cluster’s the user sessions, based on the K-medoids technique.

Keywords: Clustering, K-medoids, Recommendation, User Session, Web Usage Mining.

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Authors: Y. Madani, H. Achache, B. Boutabout

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The purpose of this paper is to analyze numerically by the three-dimensional finite element method, using ABAQUS calculation code, the mechanical behavior of a unidirectional and multidirectional delaminated stratified composite under mechanical loading in Mode II. This study consists of the determination of the energy release rate G in mode II as well as the distribution of equivalent von Mises stresses along the damaged zone by varying several parameters such as the applied load and the delamination length. It allowed us to deduce that the high energy release rate favors delamination at the free edges of a stratified plate subjected to bending.

Keywords: Delamination, energy release rate, finite element method, stratified composite.

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Authors: Nader Sh. Kandelousi, Ooi. J., Abdollahi. A

Abstract:

The use and management of projects has risen to a new prominence, with projects seen as critical to economic in both the private and public sectors due challenging and dynamic business environment. However, failure in managing project is encountered regularly, which cause the waste of company resources. The impacts of projects that failed to meet stakeholders expectations have left behind long lasting negative consequences in organization. Therefore, this research aims to investigate on key success factors of project management in an organization. It is believed that recognizing important factors that contribute to successful project will help companies to increase the overall profitability. 150 questionnaires were distributed to respondents and 110 questionnaires were collected and used in performing the data analysis. The result has strongly supported the relationship between independent variables and project performance.

Keywords: Project Performance, Leadership, TopManagement Involvement

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