Search results for: changeover time.

Authors: Changzhao Li, Juan Zhang

Abstract:

In this paper, we investigate a class of fuzzy Cohen- Grossberg neural networks with time delays and impulsive effects. By virtue of stochastic analysis, Halanay inequality for stochastic differential equations, we find sufficient conditions for the global exponential square-mean synchronization of the FCGNNs under noise perturbation. In particular, the traditional assumption on the differentiability of the time-varying delays is no longer needed. Finally, a numerical example is given to show the effectiveness of the results in this paper.

Keywords: Fuzzy Cohen-Grossberg neural networks (FCGNNs), complete synchronization, time delays, impulsive, noise perturbation.

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Authors: Shan Gao

Abstract:

This paper treats a discrete-time finite buffer batch arrival queue with a single working vacation and partial batch rejection in which the inter-arrival and service times are, respectively, arbitrary and geometrically distributed. The queue is analyzed by using the supplementary variable and the imbedded Markov-chain techniques. We obtain steady-state system length distributions at prearrival, arbitrary and outside observer-s observation epochs. We also present probability generation function (p.g.f.) of actual waiting-time distribution in the system and some performance measures.

Keywords: Discrete-time, finite buffer, single working vacation, batch arrival, partial rejection.

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Authors: Joe Imae, Kenjiro Shinagawa, Tomoaki Kobayashi, Guisheng Zhai

Abstract:

We propose a new approach on how to obtain the approximate solutions of Hamilton-Jacobi (HJ) equations. The process of the approximation consists of two steps. The first step is to transform the HJ equations into the virtual time based HJ equations (VT-HJ) by introducing a new idea of ‘virtual-time’. The second step is to construct the approximate solutions of the HJ equations through a computationally iterative procedure based on the VT-HJ equations. It should be noted that the approximate feedback solutions evolve by themselves as the virtual-time goes by. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approximation approach by means of simulations with linear and nonlinear control problems.

Keywords: Nonlinear Control, Optimal Control, Hamilton-Jacobi Equation, Virtual-Time

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Authors: M. Y. Lee, D. H. Shin, S. H. Park, W.C. Ham, S.K. Ko, C. G. Song

Abstract:

Photoacoustic Tomography (PAT) is a promising medical imaging modality that combines optical imaging contrast with the spatial resolution of ultrasound imaging. It can also distinguish the changes in biological features. But, real-time PAT system should be confirmed due to photoacoustic effect for tissue. Thus, we have developed a real-time PAT system using a custom-developed data acquisition board and ultrasound linear probe. To evaluate performance of our system, phantom test was performed. As a result of those experiments, the system showed satisfactory performance and its usefulness has been confirmed. We monitored the degradation of inflammation which induced on the rat’s kidney using real-time PAT.

Keywords: Photoacoustic tomography, inflammation detection, rat, kidney, contrast agent, ultrasound.

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Authors: Shinpei Kato, Nobuyuki Yamasaki

Abstract:

This paper proposes a scheduling scheme using feedback control to reduce the response time of aperiodic tasks with soft real-time constraints. We design an algorithm based on the proposed scheduling scheme and Total Bandwidth Server (TBS) that is a conventional server technique for scheduling aperiodic tasks. We then describe the feedback controller of the algorithm and give the control parameter tuning methods. The simulation study demonstrates that the algorithm can reduce the mean response time up to 26% compared to TBS in exchange for slight deadline misses.

Keywords: Real-Time Systems, Aperiodic Task Scheduling, Feedback-Control Scheduling, Total Bandwidth Server.

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Authors: A. M. Azad, M. Alam, C. M. Hussain

Abstract:

In this paper, we have presented the effect of varying time-delays on performance and stability in the single-channel multirate sampled-data system in hard real-time (RT-Linux) environment. The sampling task require response time that might exceed the capacity of RT-Linux. So a straight implementation with RT-Linux is not feasible, because of the latency of the systems and hence, sampling period should be less to handle this task. The best sampling rate is chosen for the sampled-data system, which is the slowest rate meets all performance requirements. RT-Linux is consistent with its specifications and the resolution of the real-time is considered 0.01 seconds to achieve an efficient result. The test results of our laboratory experiment shows that the multi-rate control technique in hard real-time operating system (RTOS) can improve the stability problem caused by the random access delays and asynchronization.

Keywords: Multi-rate, PID, RT-Linux, Sampled-data, Servo.

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Authors: Shehzad Ashraf Ch., Aftab Ahmed Khan, Zahid Mehmood, Muhammad Ahsan Habib, Qasim Mehmood

Abstract:

Energy efficiency is the key requirement in wireless sensor network as sensors are small, cheap and are deployed in very large number in a large geographical area, so there is no question of replacing the batteries of the sensors once deployed. Different ways can be used for efficient energy transmission including Multi-Hop algorithms, collaborative communication, cooperativecommunication, Beam- forming, routing algorithm, phase, frequency and time synchronization. The paper reviews the need for time synchronization and proposed a BFS based synchronization algorithm to achieve energy efficiency. The efficiency of our protocol has been tested and verified by simulation

Keywords: time synchronization, sensor networks, energy efficiency, breadth first search

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Authors: Hala Abdel hameed, Hazem M. El-Bakry, Torky Sultan

Abstract:

There are many issues that affect modeling and designing real-time databases. One of those issues is maintaining consistency between the actual state of the real-time object of the external environment and its images as reflected by all its replicas distributed over multiple nodes. The need to improve the scalability is another important issue. In this paper, we present a general framework to design a replicated real-time database for small to medium scale systems and maintain all timing constrains. In order to extend the idea for modeling a large scale database, we present a general outline that consider improving the scalability by using an existing static segmentation algorithm applied on the whole database, with the intent to lower the degree of replication, enables segments to have individual degrees of replication with the purpose of avoiding excessive resource usage, which all together contribute in solving the scalability problem for DRTDBS.

Keywords: Database modeling, Distributed database, Real time databases, Replication

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Authors: C. Slim

Abstract:

Traditional techniques for analyzing time series are based on the notion of stationarity of phenomena under study, but in reality most economic and financial series do not verify this hypothesis, which implies the implementation of specific tools for the detection of such behavior. In this paper, we study nonstationary non-seasonal time series tests in a non-exhaustive manner. We formalize the problem of nonstationary processes with numerical simulations and take stock of their statistical characteristics. The theoretical aspects of some of the most common unit root tests will be discussed. We detail the specification of the tests, showing the advantages and disadvantages of each. The empirical study focuses on the application of these tests to the exchange rate (USD/TND) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Tunisia, in order to compare the Power of these tests with the characteristics of the series.

Keywords: Stationarity, unit root tests, economic time series.

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Authors: Sajad Farokhi, Siti Mariyam Shamsuddin, Jan Flusser, Usman Ullah Sheikh

Abstract:

Although face recognition seems as an easy task for human, automatic face recognition is a much more challenging task due to variations in time, illumination and pose. In this paper, the influence of time-lapse on visible and thermal images is examined. Orthogonal moment invariants are used as a feature extractor to analyze the effect of time-lapse on thermal and visible images and the results are compared with conventional Principal Component Analysis (PCA). A new triangle square ratio criterion is employed instead of Euclidean distance to enhance the performance of nearest neighbor classifier. The results of this study indicate that the ideal feature vectors can be represented with high discrimination power due to the global characteristic of orthogonal moment invariants. Moreover, the effect of time-lapse has been decreasing and enhancing the accuracy of face recognition considerably in comparison with PCA. Furthermore, our experimental results based on moment invariant and triangle square ratio criterion show that the proposed approach achieves on average 13.6% higher in recognition rate than PCA.

Keywords: Infrared Face recognition, Time-lapse, Zernike moment invariants

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Authors: Hussain Syed Asad, Richard Kwok Kit Yuen, Gongsheng Huang

Abstract:

Real-time optimization has been considered an effective approach for improving energy efficient operation of heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems. In model-based real-time optimization, model mismatches cannot be avoided. When model mismatches are significant, the performance of the real-time optimization will be impaired and hence the expected energy saving will be reduced. In this paper, the model mismatches for chiller plant on real-time optimization are considered. In the real-time optimization of the chiller plant, simplified semi-physical or grey box model of chiller is always used, which should be identified using available operation data. To overcome the model mismatches associated with the chiller model, hybrid Genetic Algorithms (HGAs) method is used for online real-time training of the chiller model. HGAs combines Genetic Algorithms (GAs) method (for global search) and traditional optimization method (i.e. faster and more efficient for local search) to avoid conventional hit and trial process of GAs. The identification of model parameters is synthesized as an optimization problem; and the objective function is the Least Square Error between the output from the model and the actual output from the chiller plant. A case study is used to illustrate the implementation of the proposed method. It has been shown that the proposed approach is able to provide reliability in decision making, enhance the robustness of the real-time optimization strategy and improve on energy performance.

Keywords: Energy performance, hybrid adaptive modeling, hybrid genetic algorithms, real-time optimization, heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning.

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Authors: R. Afroundeh, T. Arimitsu, R. Yamanaka, C. S. Lian, T. Yunoki, T. Yano, K. Shirakawa

Abstract:

We investigated this hypothesis that arterial CO2 pressure (PaCO2) drives ventilation (V.E) with a time delay duringrecovery from short impulse-like exercise (10 s) with work load of 200 watts. V.E and end tidal CO2 pressure (PETCO2) were measured continuously during rest, warming up, exercise and recovery periods. PaCO2 was predicted (PaCO2 pre) from PETCO2 and tidal volume (VT). PETCO2 and PaCO2 pre peaked at 20 s of recovery. V.E increased and peaked at the end of exercise and then decreased during recovery; however, it peaked again at 30 s of recovery, which was 10 s later than the peak of PaCO2 pre. The relationship between V. E and PaCO2pre was not significant by using data of them obtained at the same time but was significant by using data of V.E obtained 10 s later for data of PaCO2 pre. The results support our hypothesis that PaCO2 drives V.E with a time delay.

Keywords: Arterial CO2 pressure, impulse-like exercise, time delay, ventilation.

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Authors: H. Iranmanesh, M. R. Skandari, M. Allahverdiloo

Abstract:

Project managers are the ultimate responsible for the overall characteristics of a project, i.e. they should deliver the project on time with minimum cost and with maximum quality. It is vital for any manager to decide a trade-off between these conflicting objectives and they will be benefited of any scientific decision support tool. Our work will try to determine optimal solutions (rather than a single optimal solution) from which the project manager will select his desirable choice to run the project. In this paper, the problem in project scheduling notated as (1,T|cpm,disc,mu|curve:quality,time,cost) will be studied. The problem is multi-objective and the purpose is finding the Pareto optimal front of time, cost and quality of a project (curve:quality,time,cost), whose activities belong to a start to finish activity relationship network (cpm) and they can be done in different possible modes (mu) which are non-continuous or discrete (disc), and each mode has a different cost, time and quality . The project is constrained to a non-renewable resource i.e. money (1,T). Because the problem is NP-Hard, to solve the problem, a meta-heuristic is developed based on a version of genetic algorithm specially adapted to solve multi-objective problems namely FastPGA. A sample project with 30 activities is generated and then solved by the proposed method.

Keywords: FastPGA, Multi-Execution Activity Mode, ParetoOptimality, Project Scheduling, Time-Cost-Quality Trade-Off.

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Authors: M. Duran Toksarı, B. Uçarkuş

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose two algorithms to optimally solve makespan and total completion time scheduling problems with learning effect and job dependent delivery times in a single machine environment. The delivery time is the extra time to eliminate adverse effect between the main processing and delivery to the customer. In this paper, we introduce the job dependent delivery times for some single machine scheduling problems with position dependent learning effect, which are makespan are total completion. The results with respect to two algorithms proposed for solving of the each problem are compared with LINGO solutions for 50-jobs, 100-jobs and 150- jobs problems. The proposed algorithms can find the same results in shorter time.

Keywords: Delivery times, learning effect, makespan, scheduling, total completion time.

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Authors: Mahdi Hamzeh, Sied Mehdi Fakhraie, Caro Lucas

Abstract:

All practical real-time scheduling algorithms in multiprocessor systems present a trade-off between their computational complexity and performance. In real-time systems, tasks have to be performed correctly and timely. Finding minimal schedule in multiprocessor systems with real-time constraints is shown to be NP-hard. Although some optimal algorithms have been employed in uni-processor systems, they fail when they are applied in multiprocessor systems. The practical scheduling algorithms in real-time systems have not deterministic response time. Deterministic timing behavior is an important parameter for system robustness analysis. The intrinsic uncertainty in dynamic real-time systems increases the difficulties of scheduling problem. To alleviate these difficulties, we have proposed a fuzzy scheduling approach to arrange real-time periodic and non-periodic tasks in multiprocessor systems. Static and dynamic optimal scheduling algorithms fail with non-critical overload. In contrast, our approach balances task loads of the processors successfully while consider starvation prevention and fairness which cause higher priority tasks have higher running probability. A simulation is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach. Experimental results have shown that the proposed fuzzy scheduler creates feasible schedules for homogeneous and heterogeneous tasks. It also and considers tasks priorities which cause higher system utilization and lowers deadline miss time. According to the results, it performs very close to optimal schedule of uni-processor systems.

Keywords: Computational complexity, Deadline, Feasible scheduling, Fuzzy scheduling, Priority, Real-time multiprocessor systems, Robustness, System utilization.

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Authors: Sana Hamdi, Emna Bouazizi, Sami Faiz

Abstract:

In recent years, real-time spatial applications, like location-aware services and traffic monitoring, have become more and more important. Such applications result dynamic environments where data as well as queries are continuously moving. As a result, there is a tremendous amount of real-time spatial data generated every day. The growth of the data volume seems to outspeed the advance of our computing infrastructure. For instance, in real-time spatial Big Data, users expect to receive the results of each query within a short time period without holding in account the load of the system. But with a huge amount of real-time spatial data generated, the system performance degrades rapidly especially in overload situations. To solve this problem, we propose the use of data partitioning as an optimization technique. Traditional horizontal and vertical partitioning can increase the performance of the system and simplify data management. But they remain insufficient for real-time spatial Big data; they can’t deal with real-time and stream queries efficiently. Thus, in this paper, we propose a novel data partitioning approach for real-time spatial Big data named VPA-RTSBD (Vertical Partitioning Approach for Real-Time Spatial Big data). This contribution is an implementation of the Matching algorithm for traditional vertical partitioning. We find, firstly, the optimal attribute sequence by the use of Matching algorithm. Then, we propose a new cost model used for database partitioning, for keeping the data amount of each partition more balanced limit and for providing a parallel execution guarantees for the most frequent queries. VPA-RTSBD aims to obtain a real-time partitioning scheme and deals with stream data. It improves the performance of query execution by maximizing the degree of parallel execution. This affects QoS (Quality Of Service) improvement in real-time spatial Big Data especially with a huge volume of stream data. The performance of our contribution is evaluated via simulation experiments. The results show that the proposed algorithm is both efficient and scalable, and that it outperforms comparable algorithms.

Keywords: Real-Time Spatial Big Data, Quality Of Service, Vertical partitioning, Horizontal partitioning, Matching algorithm, Hamming distance, Stream query.

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Authors: B. Q. Huang, Tarik Rashid, M-T. Kechadi

Abstract:

this paper presents a multi-context recurrent network for time series analysis. While simple recurrent network (SRN) are very popular among recurrent neural networks, they still have some shortcomings in terms of learning speed and accuracy that need to be addressed. To solve these problems, we proposed a multi-context recurrent network (MCRN) with three different learning algorithms. The performance of this network is evaluated on some real-world application such as handwriting recognition and energy load forecasting. We study the performance of this network and we compared it to a very well established SRN. The experimental results showed that MCRN is very efficient and very well suited to time series analysis and its applications.

Keywords: Gradient descent method, recurrent neural network, learning algorithms, time series, BP

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Authors: Qingqing Wang, Baocheng Chen, Shouming Zhong

Abstract:

In this paper,the exponential passivity criteria for BAM neural networks with time-varying delays is studied.By constructing new Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional and dividing the delay interval into multiple segments,a novel sufficient condition is established to guarantee the exponential stability of the considered system.Finally,a numerical example is provided to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed main results

Keywords: BAM neural networks, Exponential passivity, LMI approach, Time-varying delays.

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Authors: Mohammad H. Fattahi

Abstract:

Chaotic analysis has been performed on the river flow time series before and after applying the wavelet based de-noising techniques in order to investigate the noise content effects on chaotic nature of flow series. In this study, 38 years of monthly runoff data of three gauging stations were used. Gauging stations were located in Ghar-e-Aghaj river basin, Fars province, Iran. Noise level of time series was estimated with the aid of Gaussian kernel algorithm. This step was found to be crucial in preventing removal of the vital data such as memory, correlation and trend from the time series in addition to the noise during de-noising process.

Keywords: Chaotic behavior, wavelet, noise reduction, river flow.

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Authors: H. Iranmanesh, M. R. Skandari, M. Allahverdiloo

Abstract:

Project managers are the ultimate responsible for the overall characteristics of a project, i.e. they should deliver the project on time with minimum cost and with maximum quality. It is vital for any manager to decide a trade-off between these conflicting objectives and they will be benefited of any scientific decision support tool. Our work will try to determine optimal solutions (rather than a single optimal solution) from which the project manager will select his desirable choice to run the project. In this paper, the problem in project scheduling notated as (1,T|cpm,disc,mu|curve:quality,time,cost) will be studied. The problem is multi-objective and the purpose is finding the Pareto optimal front of time, cost and quality of a project (curve:quality,time,cost), whose activities belong to a start to finish activity relationship network (cpm) and they can be done in different possible modes (mu) which are non-continuous or discrete (disc), and each mode has a different cost, time and quality . The project is constrained to a non-renewable resource i.e. money (1,T). Because the problem is NP-Hard, to solve the problem, a meta-heuristic is developed based on a version of genetic algorithm specially adapted to solve multi-objective problems namely FastPGA. A sample project with 30 activities is generated and then solved by the proposed method.

Keywords: FastPGA, Multi-Execution Activity Mode, Pareto Optimality, Project Scheduling, Time-Cost-Quality Trade-Off.

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Authors: Peter W. Olupot, Stefan Jonsson, Joseph K. Byaruhanga

Abstract:

Porcelain specimens were fired at 6C/min to 1250C (dwell time 0.5-3h) and cooled at 6C/min to room temperature. Additionally, three different slower firing/cooling cycles were tried. Sintering profile and effects on MOR, crystalline phase content and morphology were investigated using dilatometry, 4-point bending strength, XRD and FEG-SEM respectively. Industrial-sized specimens prepared using the promising cycle were tested basing on the ANSI standards. Increasing dwell time from 1h to 3h at peak temperature of 1250C resulted in neither a significant effect on the quartz and mullite content nor MOR. Reducing the firing/cooling rate to below 6C/min, for peak temperature of 1250C (dwell time of 1h) does not result in improvement of strength of porcelain. The industrial sized specimen exhibited flashover voltages of 20.3kV (dry) and 9.3kV (wet) respectively, transverse strength of 12.5kN and bulk density of 2.27g/cm3, which are satisfactory. There was however dye penetration during porosity test. KeywordsDwell time, Microstructure, Porcelain, Strength.

Keywords: Dwell time, Microstructure, Porcelain, Strength.

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Authors: Seyed Sadegh Naseralavi, Sadegh Balaghi, Ehsan Khojastehfar

Abstract:

Time history seismic analysis is supposed to be the most accurate method to predict the seismic demand of structures. On the other hand, the required computational time of this method toward achieving the result is its main deficiency. While being applied in optimization process, in which the structure must be analyzed thousands of time, reducing the required computational time of seismic analysis of structures makes the optimization algorithms more practical. Apparently, the invented approximate methods produce some amount of errors in comparison with exact time history analysis but the recently proposed method namely, Complete Quadratic Combination (CQC) and Sum Root of the Sum of Squares (SRSS) drastically reduces the computational time by combination of peak responses in each mode. In the present research, the Basic Modal Displacement (BMD) method is introduced and applied towards estimation of seismic demand of main structure. Seismic demand of sampled structure is estimated by calculation of modal displacement of basic structure (in which the modal displacement has been calculated). Shear steel sampled structures are selected as case studies. The error applying the introduced method is calculated by comparison of the estimated seismic demands with exact time history dynamic analysis. The efficiency of the proposed method is demonstrated by application of three types of earthquakes (in view of time of peak ground acceleration).

Keywords: Time history dynamic analysis, basic modal displacement, earthquake induced demands, shear steel structures.

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Authors: Xiaoquan Ding, Jianmin Hao, Changwen Liu

Abstract:

This paper is devoted to a delayed periodic predatorprey system with non-monotonic numerical response on time scales. With the help of a continuation theorem based on coincidence degree theory, we establish easily verifiable criteria for the existence of multiple periodic solutions. As corollaries, some applications are listed. In particular, our results improve and generalize some known ones.

Keywords: Predator-prey system, periodic solution, time scale, delay, coincidence degree.

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Authors: Seyed Hossein Iranmanesh, Zahra Mokhtari

Abstract:

Estimation time and cost of work completion in a project and follow up them during execution are contributors to success or fail of a project, and is very important for project management team. Delivering on time and within budgeted cost needs to well managing and controlling the projects. To dealing with complex task of controlling and modifying the baseline project schedule during execution, earned value management systems have been set up and widely used to measure and communicate the real physical progress of a project. But it often fails to predict the total duration of the project. In this paper data mining techniques is used predicting the total project duration in term of Time Estimate At Completion-EAC (t). For this purpose, we have used a project with 90 activities, it has updated day by day. Then, it is used regular indexes in literature and applied Earned Duration Method to calculate time estimate at completion and set these as input data for prediction and specifying the major parameters among them using Clem software. By using data mining, the effective parameters on EAC and the relationship between them could be extracted and it is very useful to manage a project with minimum delay risks. As we state, this could be a simple, safe and applicable method in prediction the completion time of a project during execution.

Keywords: Data Mining Techniques, Earned Duration Method, Earned Value, Estimate At Completion.

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Authors: Shao-Ku Kao

Abstract:

This paper presents an active rectifier with time-domain delay compensation to enhance the efficiency. A delay calibration circuit is designed to convert delay time to voltage and adaptive control on/off delay in variable input voltage. This circuit is designed in 0.18 mm CMOS process. The input voltage range is from 2 V to 3.6 V with the output voltage from 1.8 V to 3.4 V. The efficiency can maintain more than 85% when the load from 50 Ω ~ 1500 Ω for 3.6 V input voltage. The maximum efficiency is 92.4 % at output power to be 38.6 mW for 3.6 V input voltage.

Keywords: Wireless power transfer, active diode, delay compensation, time to voltage converter, PCE.

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Authors: R. Moosazadeh

Abstract:

Among the Ottomans, dress was one of the means of expression of the society to which an individual was belonged, and as much as the cloth of the dress, its color reflected the individual's class. Those cloths, and the type and color of the dresses that were worn in the court, were forbidden to ordinary people. In addition, whatever the person's position was, his/her clothes were changed according to that special time and position. The clothes that were worn on trips and ceremonies were different from ordinary clothes in everyday life. At the time of the Ottoman Empire and the old Turkey, the miniature forms, and historical manuscripts were an indicator of the time of that day, and each of them is used as a document from the history of that time for today. The method used in this study is descriptive-analytical and the data collection procedure has been done through library. In this article, the cloth, shape and form of the Kaftan is considered. Firstly, a summary of the history and an explanation of this style of dressing and the importance of it at that time are considered. Finally, by the completion of this research, some of the findings of this research are mentioned, such as the distinctive features of this style and the process of updating it to use it in the present era.

Keywords: Kaftan, cloth, Ottoman, Turkey.

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Authors: Michal Natora, Felix Franke, Klaus Obermayer

Abstract:

Linear convolutive filters are fast in calculation and in application, and thus, often used for real-time processing of continuous data streams. In the case of transient signals, a filter has not only to detect the presence of a specific waveform, but to estimate its arrival time as well. In this study, a measure is presented which indicates the performance of detectors in achieving both of these tasks simultaneously. Furthermore, a new sub-class of linear filters within the class of filters which minimize the quadratic response is proposed. The proposed filters are more flexible than the existing ones, like the adaptive matched filter or the minimum power distortionless response beamformer, and prove to be superior with respect to that measure in certain settings. Simulations of a real-time scenario confirm the advantage of these filters as well as the usefulness of the performance measure.

Keywords: Adaptive matched filter, minimum variance distortionless response, beam forming, Capon beam former, linear filters, performance measure.

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Authors: Imali T. Jayamanne, K. P. Asoka Ramanayake

Abstract:

Transition from tertiary level education to employment is one of the challenges that many fresh university graduates face after graduation. The transition period or the waiting time to obtain the first employment varies with the socio-economic factors and the general characteristics of a graduate. Compared to other fields of study, Arts graduates in Sri Lanka, have to wait a long time to find their first employment. The objective of this study is to identify the determinants of the transition from higher education to employment of these graduates using survival models. The study is based on a survey that was conducted in the year 2016 on a stratified random sample of Arts graduates from Sri Lankan universities who had graduated in 2012. Among the 469 responses, 36 (8%) waiting times were interval censored and 13 (3%) were right censored. Waiting time for the first employment varied between zero to 51 months. Initially, the log-rank and the Gehan-Wilcoxon tests were performed to identify the significant factors. Gender, ethnicity, GCE Advanced level English grade, civil status, university, class received, degree type, sector of first employment, type of first employment and the educational qualifications required for the first employment were significant at 10%. The Cox proportional hazards model was fitted to model the waiting time for first employment with these significant factors. All factors, except ethnicity and type of employment were significant at 5%. However, since the proportional hazard assumption was violated, the lognormal Accelerated failure time (AFT) model was fitted to model the waiting time for the first employment. The same factors were significant in the AFT model as in Cox proportional model.

Keywords: AFT model, first employment, proportional hazard, survey design, waiting time.

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Authors: Adrienn Novák

Abstract:

The field research was carried out at the Látókép AGTC KIT research area of the University of Debrecen in Eastern-Hungary, on the area of the aeolain loess of the Hajdúság. We examined the effects of the sowing time on the phytopathogenic characteristics and yield production by applying various fertilizer treatments on two different sunflower genotypes (NK Ferti, PR64H42) in 2012 and 2013. We applied three different sowing times (early, optimal, late) and two different treatment levels of fungicides (control = no fungicides applied, double fungicide protection).

During our investigations, the studied cropyears were of different sowing time optimum in terms of yield amount (2012: early, 2013: average). By Pearson’s correlation analysis, we have found that delaying the sowing time pronouncedly decreased the extent of infection in both crop years (Diaporthe: r=0.663**, r=0.681**, Sclerotinia: r=0.465**, r=0.622**). The fungicide treatment not only decreased the extent of infection, but had yield increasing effect too (2012: r=0.498**, 2013: r=0.603**). In 2012, delaying of the sowing time increased (r=0.600**), but in 2013, it decreased (r= 0.356*) the yield amount.

Keywords: Fungicide treatment, genotypes, sowing time, yield, sunflower.

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Authors: A. I. Dounis, P. Tiropanis, D. Tseles, G. Nikolaou, G. P. Syrcos

Abstract:

The prediction of meteorological parameters at a meteorological station is an interesting and open problem. A firstorder linear dynamic model GM(1,1) is the main component of the grey system theory. The grey model requires only a few previous data points in order to make a real-time forecast. In this paper, we consider the daily average ambient temperature as a time series and the grey model GM(1,1) applied to local prediction (short-term prediction) of the temperature. In the same case study we use a fuzzy predictive model for global prediction. We conclude the paper with a comparison between local and global prediction schemes.

Keywords: Fuzzy predictive model, grey model, local andglobal prediction, meteorological forecasting, time series.

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