Search results for: unsupervised machine learning.

Authors: Nina Suszczanska, Przemyslaw Szmal, Slawomir Kulikow

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In the paper a method of modeling text for Polish is discussed. The method is aimed at transforming continuous input text into a text consisting of sentences in so called canonical form, whose characteristic is, among others, a complete structure as well as no anaphora or ellipses. The transformation is lossless as to the content of text being transformed. The modeling method has been worked out for the needs of the Thetos system, which translates Polish written texts into the Polish sign language. We believe that the method can be also used in various applications that deal with the natural language, e.g. in a text summary generator for Polish.

Keywords: anaphora, machine translation, NLP, sign language, text syntax.

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Authors: Yuka Kawakami, Tomoyuki Yokogawa, Hisashi Miyazaki, Sousuke Amasaki, Yoichiro Sato, Michiyoshi Hayase

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In this paper, we proposed a method for detecting consistency violation between state machine diagrams and a sequence diagram defined in UML 2.0 using SMV. We extended a method expressing these diagrams defined in UML 1.0 with boolean formulas so that it can express a sequence diagram with combined fragments introduced in UML 2.0. This extension made it possible to represent three types of combined fragment: alternative, option and parallel. As a result of experiment, we confirmed that the proposed method could detect consistency violation correctly with SMV.

Keywords: UML, model checking, SMV, sequence diagram.

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Authors: S. Shubha, B. N. Meera

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Physics Education Research (PER) results have shown that students do not achieve the expected level of competency in understanding the concepts of different domains of Physics learning when taught by the traditional teaching methods, the concepts of Electricity and Magnetism (E&M) being one among them. Simulation being one of the valuable instructional tools renders an opportunity to visualize varied experiences with such concepts. Considering the electric force concept which requires extensive use of vector representations, we report here the outcome of the research results pertaining to the student understanding of this concept and the role of simulation in using vector representation. The simulation platform provides a positive impact on the use of vector representation. The first stage of this study involves eliciting and analyzing student responses to questions that probe their understanding of the concept of electrostatic force and this is followed by four stages of student interviews as they use the interactive simulations of electric force in one dimension. Student responses to the questions are recorded in real time using electronic pad. A validation test interview is conducted to evaluate students' understanding of the electric force concept after using interactive simulation. Results indicate lack of procedural knowledge of the vector representation. The study emphasizes the need for the choice of appropriate simulation and mode of induction for learning.

Keywords: Electric Force, Interactive, Representation, Simulation.

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Authors: Qurban A Memon, Mohammad S. Laghari

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Integration of system process information obtained through an image processing system with an evolving knowledge database to improve the accuracy and predictability of wear debris analysis is the main focus of the paper. The objective is to automate intelligently the analysis process of wear particle using classification via self-organizing maps. This is achieved using relationship measurements among corresponding attributes of various measurements for wear debris. Finally, visualization technique is proposed that helps the viewer in understanding and utilizing these relationships that enable accurate diagnostics.

Keywords: Relationship Network, Relationship Measurement, Self-organizing Clusters, Wear Debris Analysis, Kohonen Network

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Authors: S.Ali Al-Mawsawi

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In this paper, a new developed construction model of the UPFC is proposed. The construction of this model consists of one shunt compensation block and two series compensation blocks. In this case, the UPFC with the new construction model will be investigated when it is installed in multi-machine systems with nonlinear load model. In addition, the steady–state performance of the new model operating as impedance compensation will be presented and compared with that obtained from the system without compensation.

Keywords: UPFC, PWM, Nonlinear load, Multi-Machines system

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Authors: Liton Jude Rozario, Mohammad Reduanul Haque, Md. Ziarul Islam, Mohammad Shorif Uddin

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Face recognition is a technique to automatically identify or verify individuals. It receives great attention in identification, authentication, security and many more applications. Diverse methods had been proposed for this purpose and also a lot of comparative studies were performed. However, researchers could not reach unified conclusion. In this paper, we are reporting an extensive quantitative accuracy analysis of four most widely used face recognition algorithms: Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Independent Component Analysis (ICA), Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) using AT&T, Sheffield and Bangladeshi people face databases under diverse situations such as illumination, alignment and pose variations.

Keywords: PCA, ICA, LDA, SVM, face recognition, noise.

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Authors: Marco Leite, J. M. Vilas-Boas da Silva, Isabel Duarte de Almeida

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New Product Development (NPD) has got its roots on an Engineering background. Thus, one might wonder about the interest, opportunity, contents and delivery process, if students from soft sciences were involved. This paper addressed «What to teach?» and «How to do it?», as the preliminary research questions that originated the introduced propositions. The curriculum-developer model that was purposefully chosen to adapt the coursebook by pursuing macro/micro strategies was found significant by an exploratory qualitative case study. Moreover, learning was developed and value created by implementing the institutional curriculum through a creative, hands-on, experiencing, problem-solving, problem-based but organized teamwork approach. Product design of an orange squeezer complying with ill-defined requirements, including drafts, sketches, prototypes, CAD simulations and a business plan, plus a website, written reports and presentations were the deliverables that confirmed an innovative contribution towards research and practice of teaching and learning of engineering subjects to non-specialist operations managers candidates.

Keywords: Teaching Engineering to Non-specialists, Operations Managers Education, Teamwork, Product Design and Development, Market- driven NPD, Curriculum development.

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Authors: Rami Rashkovits, Ilana Lavy

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In this study we present our developed formative assessment tool for students' assignments. The tool enables lecturers to define assignments for the course and assign each problem in each assignment a list of criteria and weights by which the students' work is evaluated. During assessment, the lecturers feed the scores for each criterion with justifications. When the scores of the current assignment are completely fed in, the tool automatically generates reports for both students and lecturers. The students receive a report by email including detailed description of their assessed work, their relative score and their progress across the criteria along the course timeline. This information is presented via charts generated automatically by the tool based on the scores fed in. The lecturers receive a report that includes summative (e.g., averages, standard deviations) and detailed (e.g., histogram) data of the current assignment. This information enables the lecturers to follow the class achievements and adjust the learning process accordingly. The tool was examined on two pilot groups of college students that study a course in (1) Object-Oriented Programming (2) Plane Geometry. Results reveal that most of the students were satisfied with the assessment process and the reports produced by the tool. The lecturers who used the tool were also satisfied with the reports and their contribution to the learning process.

Keywords: Computer-based formative assessment tool, science education.

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Authors: J. Ramos, V. Gil, A. F. Torres

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In this research (using induction furnace process) nodular iron with three different percentages of copper (residual, 0.5% and 1,2%) was obtained. Chemical analysis was performed by mass spectrometry and microstructures were characterized by Optical Microscopy (ASTM E3) and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM). The study of mechanical behavior was carried out in a mechanical test machine (ASTM E8) and a Pin on disk tribometer (ASTM G99) was used to assess wear resistance. It is observed that the dissolution of copper in crystal lattice increases the pearlite structure improving the wear and hardness behavior, but producing a contrary effect on the energy absorption.

Keywords: Ferritic and perlite structure, mechanical properties, nodular iron, wear.

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Authors: Rana M. Zeina, Laila AL-Ayadhi, Shahid Bashir

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The association between sensory problems and cognitive abilities has been studied in individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASDs). In this study, we used a Neuropsychological Test to evaluate memory and attention in ASDs children with sensory problems compared to the ASDs children without sensory problems. Four visual memory tests of Cambridge Neuropsychological Test Automated Battery (CANTAB) including Big/little circle (BLC), Simple Reaction Time (SRT) Intra /Extra dimensional set shift (IED), Spatial recognition memory (SRM), were administered to 14 ASDs children with sensory problems compared to 13 ASDs without sensory problems aged 3 to 12 with IQ of above 70. ASDs individuals with sensory problems performed worse than the ASDs group without sensory problems on comprehension, learning, reversal and simple reaction time tasks, and no significant difference between the two groups was recorded in terms of the visual memory and visual comprehension tasks. The findings of this study suggest that ASDs children with sensory problems are facing deficits in learning, comprehension, reversal, and speed of response to a stimulus.

Keywords: Visual memory, Attention, Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASDs).

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Authors: Eftah Bte. Moh @ Hj Abdullah, Izazol Binti Idris, Abd Aziz Bin Abd Shukor

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This study aimed to identify the alignment of understanding and assessment practices among secondary school teachers. The study was carried out using quantitative descriptive study. The sample consisted of 164 teachers who taught Form 1 and 2 from 11 secondary schools in the district of North Kinta, Perak, Malaysia. Data were obtained from 164 respondents who answered Expectation Alignment Understanding and Practices of School Assessment (PEKDAPS) questionnaire. The data were analysed using SPSS 17.0+. The Cronbach’s alpha value obtained through PEKDAPS questionnaire pilot study was 0.86. The results showed that teachers' performance in PEKDAPS based on the mean value was less than 3, which means that perfect alignment does not occur between the understanding and practices of school assessment. Two major PEKDAPS sub-constructs of articulation across grade and age and usability of the system were higher than the moderate alignment of the understanding and practices of school assessment (Min=2.0). The content focused of PEKDAPs sub-constructs which showed lower than the moderate alignment of the understanding and practices of school assessment (Min=2.0). Another two PEKDAPS subconstructs of transparency and fairness and the pedagogical implications showed moderate alignment (2.0). The implications of the study is that teachers need to fully understand the importance of alignment among components of assessment, learning and teaching and learning objectives as strategies to achieve quality assessment process.

Keywords: Alignment, assessment practices, School Based Assessment, understanding.

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Authors: R. Usubamatov, M. Z. Abdulmuin

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Automated production lines with so called 'hard structures' are widely used in manufacturing. Designers segmented these lines into sections by placing a buffer between the series of machine tools to increase productivity. In real production condition the capacity of a buffer system is limited and real production line can compensate only some part of the productivity losses of an automated line. The productivity of such production lines cannot be readily determined. This paper presents mathematical approach to solving the structure of section-based automated production lines by criterion of maximum productivity.

Keywords: optimization production line, productivity, sections

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Authors: S. Moein, S. A. Monadjemi, P. Moallem

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In this paper, application of artificial neural networks in typical disease diagnosis has been investigated. The real procedure of medical diagnosis which usually is employed by physicians was analyzed and converted to a machine implementable format. Then after selecting some symptoms of eight different diseases, a data set contains the information of a few hundreds cases was configured and applied to a MLP neural network. The results of the experiments and also the advantages of using a fuzzy approach were discussed as well. Outcomes suggest the role of effective symptoms selection and the advantages of data fuzzificaton on a neural networks-based automatic medical diagnosis system.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, Fuzzy Logic, MedicalDiagnosis, Symptoms, Fuzzification.

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Authors: Fernando Augusto Ullmann Tobe, Moacyr Amaral Domingues, Figueiredo, Stephany Rie Yamamoto Gushiken

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The purpose of this paper is to present the process of elaborating the layout of an assembly line of a welding industry using the principles of lean manufacturing as the main driver. The objective of this paper is relevant since the current layout of the assembly line causes non-productive times for operators, being related to the lean waste of unnecessary movements. The methodology used for the project development was Project-based Learning (PBL), which is an active way of learning focused on real problems. The process of selecting the methodology for layout planning was developed considering three criteria to evaluate the most relevant one for this paper's goal. As a result of this evaluation, Systematic Layout Planning was selected, and three steps were added to it – Value Stream Mapping for the current situation and after layout changed and the definition of lean tools and layout type. This inclusion was to consider lean manufacturing in the layout redesign of the industry. The layout change resulted in an increase in the value-adding time of operations carried out in the sector, reduction in movement times between previous and final assemblies, and in cost savings regarding the man-hour value of the employees, which can be invested in productive hours instead of movement times.

Keywords: Assembly line, layout, lean manufacturing, systematic layout planning.

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Authors: Christiana Gauci-Sciberras

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The first language (L1) could be used in foreign language teaching and learning as a pedagogical tool to scaffold new knowledge in the target language (TL) upon linguistic knowledge that the learner already has. In a bilingual context, code-switching between the two languages usually occurs in classrooms. One of the reasons for code-switching is because both languages are used for scaffolding new knowledge. This research paper aims to find out why both the L1 (Maltese) and the L2 (English) are used in the classroom of Mandarin Chinese as a foreign language (CFL) in the bilingual context of Malta. This research paper also aims to find out the learners’ perceptions of the use of a bilingual medium of instruction. Two research methods were used to collect qualitative data; semi-structured interviews with adult learners of Mandarin Chinese and lesson observations. These two research methods were used so that the data collected in the interviews would be triangulated with data collected in lesson observations. The L1 (Maltese) is the language of instruction mostly used. The teacher and the learners switch to the L2 (English) or to any other foreign language according to the need at a particular instance during the lesson.

Keywords: Chinese, bilingual, pedagogical purpose of L1 and L2, CFL acquisition.

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Authors: Tania Elena González Alvarado, Ma. Antonieta Martín Granados

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The aim of this paper is to explain what a multienterprise tie is, what evidence its analysis provides and how does the cooperation mechanism influence the establishment of a multienterprise tie. The study focuses on businesses of smaller dimension, geographically dispersed and whose businessmen are learning to cooperate in an international environment. The empirical evidence obtained at this moment permits to conclude the following: The tie is not long-lasting, it has an end; opportunism is an opportunity to learn; the multi-enterprise tie is a space to learn about the cooperation mechanism; the local tie permits a businessman to alternate between competition and cooperation strategies; the disappearance of a tie is an experience of learning for a businessman, diminishing the possibility of failure in the next tie; the cooperation mechanism tends to eliminate hierarchical relations; the multienterprise tie diminishes the asymmetries and permits SME-s to have a better position when they negotiate with large companies; the multi-enterprise tie impacts positively on the local system. The collection of empirical evidence was done trough the following instruments: direct observation in a business encounter to which the businesses attended in 2003 (202 Mexican agro industry SME-s), a survey applied in 2004 (129), a questionnaire applied in 2005 (86 businesses), field visits to the businesses during the period 2006-2008 and; a survey applied by telephone in 2008 (55 Mexican agro industry SME-s).

Keywords: Cooperation, multi-enterprise tie, links, networks.

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Authors: Christian Endisch, Christoph Hackl, Dierk Schröder

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This paper presents an exact pruning algorithm with adaptive pruning interval for general dynamic neural networks (GDNN). GDNNs are artificial neural networks with internal dynamics. All layers have feedback connections with time delays to the same and to all other layers. The structure of the plant is unknown, so the identification process is started with a larger network architecture than necessary. During parameter optimization with the Levenberg- Marquardt (LM) algorithm irrelevant weights of the dynamic neural network are deleted in order to find a model for the plant as simple as possible. The weights to be pruned are found by direct evaluation of the training data within a sliding time window. The influence of pruning on the identification system depends on the network architecture at pruning time and the selected weight to be deleted. As the architecture of the model is changed drastically during the identification and pruning process, it is suggested to adapt the pruning interval online. Two system identification examples show the architecture selection ability of the proposed pruning approach.

Keywords: System identification, dynamic neural network, recurrentneural network, GDNN, optimization, Levenberg Marquardt, realtime recurrent learning, network pruning, quasi-online learning.

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Authors: Goh Yung Hong, Mona Masood

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This paper explores the effects of gamification on lower secondary school students’ motivation and engagement in the classroom. Two-group posttest-only experimental design were employed to study the influence of gamification teaching method (GTM) when compared with conventional teaching method (CTM) on 60 lower secondary school students. The Student Engagement Instrument (SEI) and Intrinsic Motivation Inventory (IMI) were used to assess students’ intrinsic motivation and engagement level towards the respective teaching method. Finding indicates that students who completed the GTM lesson were significantly higher in intrinsic motivation to learn than those from the CTM. Although the result were insignificant and only marginal difference in the engagement mean, GTM still show better potential in raising student’s engagement in class when compared with CTM. This finding proves that the GTM is likely to solve the current issue of low motivation to learn and low engagement in class among lower secondary school students in Malaysia. On the other hand, despite being not significant, higher mean indicates that CTM positively contribute to higher peer support for learning and better teacher and student relationship when compared with GTM. As a conclusion, gamification approach is flexible and can be adapted into many learning content to enhance the intrinsic motivation to learn and to some extent, encourage better student engagement in class.

Keywords: Conventional teaching method, Gamification teaching method, Motivation, Engagement.

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Authors: Ahmad T. Al-Taani

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In this paper, an efficient structural approach for recognizing on-line handwritten digits is proposed. After reading the digit from the user, the slope is estimated and normalized for adjacent nodes. Based on the changing of signs of the slope values, the primitives are identified and extracted. The names of these primitives are represented by strings, and then a finite state machine, which contains the grammars of the digits, is traced to identify the digit. Finally, if there is any ambiguity, it will be resolved. Experiments showed that this technique is flexible and can achieve high recognition accuracy for the shapes of the digits represented in this work.

Keywords: Digits Recognition, Pattern Recognition, FeatureExtraction, Structural Primitives, Document Processing, Handwritten Recognition, Primitives Selection.

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Authors: Bala Dhandayuthapani Veerasamy

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Parallel programming models exist as an abstraction of hardware and memory architectures. There are several parallel programming models in commonly use; they are shared memory model, thread model, message passing model, data parallel model, hybrid model, Flynn-s models, embarrassingly parallel computations model, pipelined computations model. These models are not specific to a particular type of machine or memory architecture. This paper expresses the model program for concurrent approach to data parallel model through java programming.

Keywords: Concurrent, Data Parallel, JDK, Parallel, Thread

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Authors: Mahesh Pal

Abstract:

In recent years, a number of works proposing the combination of multiple classifiers to produce a single classification have been reported in remote sensing literature. The resulting classifier, referred to as an ensemble classifier, is generally found to be more accurate than any of the individual classifiers making up the ensemble. As accuracy is the primary concern, much of the research in the field of land cover classification is focused on improving classification accuracy. This study compares the performance of four ensemble approaches (boosting, bagging, DECORATE and random subspace) with a univariate decision tree as base classifier. Two training datasets, one without ant noise and other with 20 percent noise was used to judge the performance of different ensemble approaches. Results with noise free data set suggest an improvement of about 4% in classification accuracy with all ensemble approaches in comparison to the results provided by univariate decision tree classifier. Highest classification accuracy of 87.43% was achieved by boosted decision tree. A comparison of results with noisy data set suggests that bagging, DECORATE and random subspace approaches works well with this data whereas the performance of boosted decision tree degrades and a classification accuracy of 79.7% is achieved which is even lower than that is achieved (i.e. 80.02%) by using unboosted decision tree classifier.

Keywords: Ensemble learning, decision tree, remote sensingclassification.

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Authors: Saeed jalilzadeh, Mohammad Reza Safari Tirtashi, Mohsen Sadeghi

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this paper focuses on designing of PSS and SVC controller based on chaos and PSO algorithms to improve the stability of power system. Single machine infinite bus (SMIB) system with SVC located at the terminal of generator has been considered to evaluate the proposed controllers where both SVC and PSS have the same controller. The coefficients of PSS and SVC controller have been optimized by chaos and PSO algorithms. Finally the system with proposed controllers has been simulated for the special disturbance in input power of generator, and then the dynamic responses of generator have been presented. The simulation results showed that the system composed with recommended controller has outstanding operation in fast damping of oscillations of power system.

Keywords: PSS, CHAOS, PSO, Stability

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Authors: C. Tung, P.-L. Tso

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This paper presents a complete procedure for tool path planning and blade machining in 5-axis manufacturing. The actual cutting contact and cutter locations can be determined by lead and tilt angles. The tool path generation is implemented by piecewise curved approximation and chordal deviation detection. An application about drive surface method promotes flexibility of tool control and stability of machine motion. A real manufacturing process is proposed to separate the operation into three regions with five stages and to modify the local tool orientation with an interactive algorithm.

Keywords: 5-axis machining, tool orientation, lead and tilt angles, tool path generation.

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Authors: Anupama Pande, Ashok Kumar Thakur, Swapnoneel Roy

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A complex valued neural network is a neural network which consists of complex valued input and/or weights and/or thresholds and/or activation functions. Complex-valued neural networks have been widening the scope of applications not only in electronics and informatics, but also in social systems. One of the most important applications of the complex valued neural network is in signal processing. In Neural networks, generalized mean neuron model (GMN) is often discussed and studied. The GMN includes a new aggregation function based on the concept of generalized mean of all the inputs to the neuron. This paper aims to present exhaustive results of using Generalized Mean Neuron model in a complex-valued neural network model that uses the back-propagation algorithm (called -Complex-BP-) for learning. Our experiments results demonstrate the effectiveness of a Generalized Mean Neuron Model in a complex plane for signal processing over a real valued neural network. We have studied and stated various observations like effect of learning rates, ranges of the initial weights randomly selected, error functions used and number of iterations for the convergence of error required on a Generalized Mean neural network model. Some inherent properties of this complex back propagation algorithm are also studied and discussed.

Keywords: Complex valued neural network, Generalized Meanneuron model, Signal processing.

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Authors: Chia-Hui Huang, Han-Ying Kao

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In production planning (PP) periods with excess capacity and growing demand, the manufacturers have two options to use the excess capacity. First, it could do more changeovers and thus reduce lot sizes, inventories, and inventory costs. Second, it could produce in excess of demand in the period and build additional inventory that can be used to satisfy future demand increments, thus delaying the purchase of the next machine that is required to meet the growth in demand. In this study we propose an enhanced supply chain planning model with flexible planning capability. In addition, a 3D supply chain planning system is illustrated.

Keywords: Supply chain, capacity expansion, inventory management, planning system.

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Authors: Taiwo. M. Akinmuyisitan, John Cosmas

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This paper practically demonstrates the theories and concepts of an Advanced Convolutional Neural Network in the design and development of a scalable artificial intelligence model for the detection of criminal masterminds. The technique uses machine vision algorithms to compute the facial characteristics of suspects and classify actors as criminal or non-criminal faces. The paper proceeds further to compare the results of the error accuracy of two popular custom convolutional pre-trained networks, VGG16 and Resnet50. The result shows that VGG16 is probably more efficient than ResNet50 for the dataset we used.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, convolutional neural networks, Resnet50, VGG16.

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Authors: M. Giannopoulou, I. Roukounis, A. Roukouni.

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Geographical Information Systems are an integral part of planning in modern technical systems. Nowadays referred to as Spatial Decision Support Systems, as they allow synergy database management systems and models within a single user interface machine and they are important tools in spatial design for evaluating policies and programs at all levels of administration. This work refers to the creation of a Geographical Information System in the context of a broader research in the area of influence of an under construction station of the new metro in the Greek city of Thessaloniki, which included statistical and multivariate data analysis and diagrammatic representation, mapping and interpretation of the results.

Keywords: Databases, Geographical information systems (GIS), Land-use planning, Metro stations

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Authors: Yanwei Pang, Lei Zhang, Zhengkai Liu

Abstract:

Studies in neuroscience suggest that both global and local feature information are crucial for perception and recognition of faces. It is widely believed that local feature is less sensitive to variations caused by illumination, expression and illumination. In this paper, we target at designing and learning local features for face recognition. We designed three types of local features. They are semi-global feature, local patch feature and tangent shape feature. The designing of semi-global feature aims at taking advantage of global-like feature and meanwhile avoiding suppressing AdaBoost algorithm in boosting weak classifies established from small local patches. The designing of local patch feature targets at automatically selecting discriminative features, and is thus different with traditional ways, in which local patches are usually selected manually to cover the salient facial components. Also, shape feature is considered in this paper for frontal view face recognition. These features are selected and combined under the framework of boosting algorithm and cascade structure. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms the standard eigenface method and Bayesian method. Moreover, the selected local features and observations in the experiments are enlightening to researches in local feature design in face recognition.

Keywords: Face recognition, local feature, AdaBoost, subspace analysis.

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Authors: Samal Abzhanova, Saule Mussabekova

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Today, a new system of education is being created in Kazakhstan in order to develop the system of education and to satisfy the world class standards. For this purpose, there have been established new requirements and responsibilities to the instructors. Students should not be limited with providing only theoretical knowledge. Also, they should be encouraged to be competitive, to think creatively and critically. Moreover, students should be able to implement these skills into practice. These issues could be resolved through the permanent improvement of teaching methods. Therefore, a specialist who teaches the languages should use up-to-date methods and introduce new technologies. The result of the investigation suggests that an interactive teaching method is one of the new technologies in this field. This paper aims to provide information about implementing new technologies in the process of teaching language. The paper will discuss about necessity of introducing innovative technologies and the techniques of organizing interactive lessons. At the same time, the structure of the interactive lesson, conditions, principles, discussions, small group works and role-playing games will be considered. Interactive methods are carried out with the help of several types of activities, such as working in a team (with two or more group of people), playing situational or role-playing games, working with different sources of information, discussions, presentations, creative works and learning through solving situational tasks and etc.

Keywords: Games, interactive learning, Kazakh language, teaching methods.

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Authors: Xiangtuo Chen, Paul-Henry Cournéde

Abstract:

Crop yield prediction is a paramount issue in agriculture. The main idea of this paper is to find out efficient way to predict the yield of corn based meteorological records. The prediction models used in this paper can be classified into model-driven approaches and data-driven approaches, according to the different modeling methodologies. The model-driven approaches are based on crop mechanistic modeling. They describe crop growth in interaction with their environment as dynamical systems. But the calibration process of the dynamic system comes up with much difficulty, because it turns out to be a multidimensional non-convex optimization problem. An original contribution of this paper is to propose a statistical methodology, Multi-Scenarios Parameters Estimation (MSPE), for the parametrization of potentially complex mechanistic models from a new type of datasets (climatic data, final yield in many situations). It is tested with CORNFLO, a crop model for maize growth. On the other hand, the data-driven approach for yield prediction is free of the complex biophysical process. But it has some strict requirements about the dataset. A second contribution of the paper is the comparison of these model-driven methods with classical data-driven methods. For this purpose, we consider two classes of regression methods, methods derived from linear regression (Ridge and Lasso Regression, Principal Components Regression or Partial Least Squares Regression) and machine learning methods (Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbor, Artificial Neural Network and SVM regression). The dataset consists of 720 records of corn yield at county scale provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the associated climatic data. A 5-folds cross-validation process and two accuracy metrics: root mean square error of prediction(RMSEP), mean absolute error of prediction(MAEP) were used to evaluate the crop prediction capacity. The results show that among the data-driven approaches, Random Forest is the most robust and generally achieves the best prediction error (MAEP 4.27%). It also outperforms our model-driven approach (MAEP 6.11%). However, the method to calibrate the mechanistic model from dataset easy to access offers several side-perspectives. The mechanistic model can potentially help to underline the stresses suffered by the crop or to identify the biological parameters of interest for breeding purposes. For this reason, an interesting perspective is to combine these two types of approaches.

Keywords: Crop yield prediction, crop model, sensitivity analysis, paramater estimation, particle swarm optimization, random forest.

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