Search results for: Hierarchical Linear Model

Authors: Chaimongkol Limpianchob

Abstract:

This work addresses the problem of production planning that arises in the production of aromatic coconuts from Samudsakhorn province in Thailand. The planning involves the forwarding of aromatic coconuts from the harvest areas to the factory, which is classified into two groups; self-owned areas and contracted areas, the decisions of aromatic coconuts flow in the plant, and addressing a question of which warehouse will be in use. The problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming model within supply chain management framework. The objective function seeks to minimize the total cost including the harvesting, labor and inventory costs. Constraints on the system include the production activities in the company and demand requirements. Numerical results are presented to demonstrate the feasibility of coconuts supply chain model compared with base case.

Keywords: Aromatic coconut, supply chain management, production planning, mixed-integer linear programming.

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Authors: Imad Chaddad, Andrei A. Kolyshkin

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Linear and weakly nonlinear analysis of shallow wake flows is presented in the present paper. The evolution of the most unstable linear mode is described by the complex Ginzburg-Landau equation (CGLE). The coefficients of the CGLE are calculated numerically from the solution of the corresponding linear stability problem for a one-parametric family of shallow wake flows. It is shown that the coefficients of the CGLE are not so sensitive to the variation of the base flow profile.

Keywords: Ginzburg-Landau equation, shallow wake flow, weakly nonlinear theory.

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Authors: Sameh E. Ahmed, Ramadan A. Mohamed, Abd Elraheem M. Aly, Mahmoud S. Soliman

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In this paper, an enhancement of the heat transfer using non-Newtonian nanofluids by magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) mixed convection along stretching sheets embedded in an isotropic porous medium is investigated. Case of the Maxwell nanofluids is studied using the two phase mathematical model of nanofluids and the Darcy model is applied for the porous medium. Important effects are taken into account, namely, non-linear thermal radiation, convective boundary conditions, electromagnetic force and presence of the heat source/sink. Suitable similarity transformations are used to convert the governing equations to a system of ordinary differential equations then it is solved numerically using a fourth order Runge-Kutta method with shooting technique. The main results of the study revealed that the velocity profiles are decreasing functions of the Darcy number, the Deborah number and the magnetic field parameter. Also, the increase in the non-linear radiation parameters causes an enhancement in the local Nusselt number.

Keywords: MHD, nanofluids, stretching surface, non-linear thermal radiation, convective condition.

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Authors: Tamás Mankovits, Dávid Huri, Imre Kállai, Imre Kocsis, Tamás Szabó

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Non-linear FEM calculations are indispensable when important technical information like operating performance of a rubber component is desired. Rubber bumpers built into air-spring structures may undergo large deformations under load, which in itself shows non-linear behavior. The changing contact range between the parts and the incompressibility of the rubber increases this non-linear behavior further. The material characterization of an elastomeric component is also a demanding engineering task. In this paper a comprehensive investigation is introduced including laboratory measurements, mesh density analysis and complex finite element simulations to obtain the load-displacement curve of the chosen rubber bumper. Contact and friction effects are also taken into consideration. The aim of this research is to elaborate a FEM model which is accurate and competitive for a future shape optimization task.

Keywords: Rubber bumper, finite element analysis, compression test, Mooney-Rivlin material model.

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Authors: K.Ramesh, A.Nirmalkumar, G.Gurusamy

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In this paper, a new model order reduction phenomenon is introduced at the design stage of linear phase digital IIR filter. The complexity of a system can be reduced by adopting the model order reduction method in their design. In this paper a mixed method of model order reduction is proposed for linear IIR filter. The proposed method employs the advantages of factor division technique to derive the reduced order denominator polynomial and the reduced order numerator is obtained based on the resultant denominator polynomial. The order reduction technique is used to reduce the delay units at the design stage of IIR filter. The validity of the proposed method is illustrated with design example in frequency domain and stability is also examined with help of nyquist plot.

Keywords: Error index (J), Factor division method, IIR filter, Nyquist plot, Order reduction.

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Authors: Edlira Donefski, Lorenc Ekonomi, Tina Donefski

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Edgeworth approximation is one of the most important statistical methods that has a considered contribution in the reduction of the sum of standard deviation of the independent variables’ coefficients in a Quantile Regression Model. This model estimates the conditional median or other quantiles. In this paper, we have applied approximating statistical methods in an economical problem. We have created and generated a quantile regression model to see how the profit gained is connected with the realized sales of the cosmetic products in a real data, taken from a local business. The Linear Regression of the generated profit and the realized sales was not free of autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity, so this is the reason that we have used this model instead of Linear Regression. Our aim is to analyze in more details the relation between the variables taken into study: the profit and the finalized sales and how to minimize the standard errors of the independent variable involved in this study, the level of realized sales. The statistical methods that we have applied in our work are Edgeworth Approximation for Independent and Identical distributed (IID) cases, Bootstrap version of the Model and the Edgeworth approximation for Bootstrap Quantile Regression Model. The graphics and the results that we have presented here identify the best approximating model of our study.

Keywords: Bootstrap, Edgeworth approximation, independent and Identical distributed, quantile.

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Authors: J.V.R.Ravindra, M.B.Srinivas,

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Accurate modeling of high speed RLC interconnects has become a necessity to address signal integrity issues in current VLSI design. To accurately model a dispersive system of interconnects at higher frequencies; a full-wave analysis is required. However, conventional circuit simulation of interconnects with full wave models is extremely CPU expensive. We present an algorithm for reducing large VLSI circuits to much smaller ones with similar input-output behavior. A key feature of our method, called Frequency Shift Technique, is that it is capable of reducing linear time-varying systems. This enables it to capture frequency-translation and sampling behavior, important in communication subsystems such as mixers, RF components and switched-capacitor filters. Reduction is obtained by projecting the original system described by linear differential equations into a lower dimension. Experiments have been carried out using Cadence Design Simulator cwhich indicates that the proposed technique achieves more % reduction with less CPU time than the other model order reduction techniques existing in literature. We also present applications to RF circuit subsystems, obtaining size reductions and evaluation speedups of orders of magnitude with insignificant loss of accuracy.

Keywords: Model order Reduction, RLC, crosstalk

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Authors: Hazem Al-Mofleh, John Daniels, Joseph McKean

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Within geostatistics research, effective estimation of the variogram points has been examined, particularly in developing robust alternatives. The parametric fit of these variogram points which eventually defines the kriging weights, however, has not received the same attention from a robust perspective. This paper proposes the use of the non-linear Wilcoxon norm over weighted non-linear least squares as a robust variogram fitting alternative. First, we introduce the concept of variogram estimation and fitting. Then, as an alternative to non-linear weighted least squares, we discuss the non-linear Wilcoxon estimator. Next, the robustness properties of the non-linear Wilcoxon are demonstrated using a contaminated spatial data set. Finally, under simulated conditions, increasing levels of contaminated spatial processes have their variograms points estimated and fit. In the fitting of these variogram points, both non-linear Weighted Least Squares and non-linear Wilcoxon fits are examined for efficiency. At all levels of contamination (including 0%), using a robust estimation and robust fitting procedure, the non-weighted Wilcoxon outperforms weighted Least Squares.

Keywords: Non-Linear Wilcoxon, robust estimation, Variogram estimation.

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Authors: G. M. Mir, Moinuddin, N. A. Shah

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In the age of global communications, heterogeneous networks are seen to be the best choice of strategy to ensure continuous and uninterruptible services. This will allow mobile terminal to stay in connection even they are migrating into different segment coverage through the handoff process. With the increase of teletraffic demands in mobile cellular system, hierarchical cellular systems have been adopted extensively for more efficient channel utilization and better QoS (Quality of Service). This paper presents a bidirectional call overflow scheme between two layers of microcells and macrocells, where handoffs are decided by the velocity of mobile making the call. To ensure that handoff calls are given higher priorities, it is assumed that guard channels are assigned in both macrocells and microcells. A hysteresis value introduced in mobile velocity is used to allow mobile roam in the same cell if its velocity changes back within the set threshold values. By doing this the number of handoffs is reduced thereby reducing the processing overhead and enhancing the quality of service to the end user.

Keywords: Hierarchical cellular systems, hysteresis, overflow, threshold.

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Authors: A. Azadeh, Z. Raoofi

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Natural gas, as one of the most important sources of energy for many of the industrial and domestic users all over the world, has a complex, huge supply chain which is in need of heavy investments in all the phases of exploration, extraction, production, transportation, storage and distribution. The main purpose of supply chain is to meet customers’ need efficiently and with minimum cost. In this study, with the aim of minimizing economic costs, different levels of natural gas supply chain in the form of a multi-echelon, multi-period fuzzy linear programming have been modeled. In this model, different constraints including constraints on demand satisfaction, capacity, input/output balance and presence/absence of a path have been defined. The obtained results suggest efficiency of the recommended model in optimal allocation and reduction of supply chain costs.

Keywords: Cost Approach, Fuzzy Theory, Linear Programming, Natural Gas Supply Chain.

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Authors: Borna Jafarpour, Azadeh Nematzadeh, Vahid Kazempour, Babak Sadeghian

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Cellular automata have been used for design of cryptosystems. Recently some secret sharing schemes based on linear memory cellular automata have been introduced which are used for both text and image. In this paper, we illustrate that these secret sharing schemes are vulnerable to dishonest participants- collusion. We propose a cheating model for the secret sharing schemes based on linear memory cellular automata. For this purpose we present a novel uniform model for representation of all secret sharing schemes based on cellular automata. Participants can cheat by means of sending bogus shares or bogus transition rules. Cheaters can cooperate to corrupt a shared secret and compute a cheating value added to it. Honest participants are not aware of cheating and suppose the incorrect secret as the valid one. We prove that cheaters can recover valid secret by removing the cheating value form the corrupted secret. We provide methods of calculating the cheating value.

Keywords: Cellular automata, cheating model, secret sharing, threshold scheme.

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Authors: Wiem Daoud Ben Amor, Luis Martínez López, Jr., Hela Moalla Frikha

Abstract:

Most of the multi-criteria group decision making (MCGDM) problems dealing with qualitative criteria require consideration of the large background of expert information. It is common that experts have different degrees of knowledge for giving their alternative assessments according to criteria. So, it seems logical that they use different evaluation scales to express their judgment, i.e., multi granular linguistic scales. In this context, we propose the extension of the classical additive ratio assessment (ARAS) method to the case of a hierarchical linguistics term for managing multi granular linguistic scales in uncertain context where uncertainty is modeled by means in linguistic information. The proposed approach is called the extended hierarchical linguistics-ARAS method (ELH-ARAS). Within the ELH-ARAS approach, the decision maker (DMs) can diagnose the results (the ranking of the alternatives) in a decomposed style i.e., not only at one level of the hierarchy but also at the intermediate ones. Also, the developed approach allows a feedback transformation i.e., the collective final results of all experts are able to be transformed at any level of the extended linguistic hierarchy that each expert has previously used. Therefore, the ELH-ARAS technique makes it easier for decision-makers to understand the results. Finally, an MCGDM case study is given to illustrate the proposed approach.

Keywords: Additive ratio assessment, extended hierarchical linguistic, multi-criteria group decision making problems, multi granular linguistic contexts.

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Authors: Tan Kian Lam, Abdullah Zawawi bin Haji Talib, Mohd. Azam Osman

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This paper describes a method of modeling to model shadow play puppet using sophisticated computer graphics techniques available in OpenGL in order to allow interactive play in real-time environment as well as producing realistic animation. This paper proposes a novel real-time method is proposed for modeling of puppet and its shadow image that allows interactive play of virtual shadow play using texture mapping and blending techniques. Special effects such as lighting and blurring effects for virtual shadow play environment are also developed. Moreover, the use of geometric transformations and hierarchical modeling facilitates interaction among the different parts of the puppet during animation. Based on the experiments and the survey that were carried out, the respondents involved are very satisfied with the outcomes of these techniques.

Keywords: Animation, blending, hierarchical modeling, interactive play, real-time, shadow play, visual simulation.

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Authors: Kenneth M. Oba

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Adequate management, control, and optimization of cost is an essential element for a successful construction project. A multiple linear regression optimization model was formulated to address the problem of costs associated with pile construction operations. A total of 32 PVC-reinforced concrete piles with diameter of 300 mm, 5.4 m long, were studied during the construction. The soil upon which the piles were installed was mostly silty sand, and completely submerged in water at Bonny, Nigeria. The piles are friction piles installed by boring method, using a piling auger. The volumes of soil removed, the weight of reinforcement cage installed, and volumes of fresh concrete poured into the PVC void were determined. The cost of constructing each pile based on the calculated quantities was determined. A model was derived and subjected to statistical tests using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software. The model turned out to be adequate, fit, and have a high predictive accuracy with an R2 value of 0.833.

Keywords: Cost optimization modelling, multiple linear models, pile construction, regression models.

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Authors: Mounira Taileb, Sid Lamrous, Sami Touati

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In order to accelerate the similarity search in highdimensional database, we propose a new hierarchical indexing method. It is composed of offline and online phases. Our contribution concerns both phases. In the offline phase, after gathering the whole of the data in clusters and constructing a hierarchical index, the main originality of our contribution consists to develop a method to construct bounding forms of clusters to avoid overlapping. For the online phase, our idea improves considerably performances of similarity search. However, for this second phase, we have also developed an adapted search algorithm. Our method baptized NOHIS (Non-Overlapping Hierarchical Index Structure) use the Principal Direction Divisive Partitioning (PDDP) as algorithm of clustering. The principle of the PDDP is to divide data recursively into two sub-clusters; division is done by using the hyper-plane orthogonal to the principal direction derived from the covariance matrix and passing through the centroid of the cluster to divide. Data of each two sub-clusters obtained are including by a minimum bounding rectangle (MBR). The two MBRs are directed according to the principal direction. Consequently, the nonoverlapping between the two forms is assured. Experiments use databases containing image descriptors. Results show that the proposed method outperforms sequential scan and SRtree in processing k-nearest neighbors.

Keywords: K-nearest neighbour search, multi-dimensional indexing, multimedia databases, similarity search.

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Authors: U. Yavas, M. Gokasan

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Control of diesel engine’s air path has drawn a lot of attention due to its multi input-multi output, closed coupled, non-linear relation. Today, precise control of amount of air to be combusted is a must in order to meet with tight emission limits and performance targets. In this study, passenger car size diesel engine is modeled by AVL Boost RT, and then simulated with standard, industry level PID controllers. Finally, linear model predictive control is designed and simulated. This study shows the importance of modeling and control of diesel engines with flexible algorithm development in computer based systems.

Keywords: Predictive control, engine control, engine modeling, PID control, feedforward compensation.

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Authors: Lan Yang, Kathryn Cormican, Ming Yu

Abstract:

ISO/IEC/IEEE 15288: 2015, Systems and Software Engineering - System Life Cycle Processes is an international standard that provides generic top-level process descriptions to support systems engineering (SE). However, the processes defined in the standard needs improvement to lift integrity and consistency. The goal of this research is to explore the way by building an ontology model for the SE standard to manage the knowledge of SE. The ontology model gives a whole picture of the SE knowledge domain by building connections between SE concepts. Moreover, it creates a hierarchical classification of the concepts to fulfil different requirements of displaying and analysing SE knowledge.

Keywords: Knowledge management, model-based systems engineering, ontology modelling, systems engineering ontology.

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Authors: N. K. Sharma, J. Nayak, D. K. Sehgal, R. K. Pandey

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Bone material is treated as heterogeneous and hierarchical in nature therefore appropriate size of bone specimen is required to analyze its tensile properties at a particular hierarchical level. Tensile properties of cortical bone are important to investigate the effect of drug treatment, disease and aging as well as for development of computational and analytical models. In the present study tensile properties of buffalo as well as goat femoral and tibiae cortical bone are analyzed using sub-size tensile specimens. Femoral cortical bone was found to be stronger in tension as compared to the tibiae cortical bone and the tensile properties obtained using sub-size specimens show close resemblance with the tensile properties of full-size cortical specimens. A two dimensional finite element (FE) modal was also applied to simulate the tensile behavior of sub-size specimens. Good agreement between experimental and FE model was obtained for sub-size tensile specimens of cortical bone.

Keywords: Cortical bone, sub-size specimen, full size specimen, finite element modeling.

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Authors: Zhidong Zhang, Zhi-Chao Zhang

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This study examined the mental health and behavioral problems in early adolescence with the instrument of Achenbach System of Empirically Based Assessment (ASEBA). The purpose of the study was stratified sampling method was used to collect data from 1975 participants. Multiple regression models and hierarchical regression models were applied to examine the relations between the background variables and internalizing problems, and the ones between students’ performance and internalizing problems. The results indicated that several background variables as predictors could significantly predict the anxious/depressed problem; reading and social study scores could significantly predict the anxious/depressed problem. However the class as a hierarchical macro factor did not indicate the significant effect. In brief, the majority of these models represented that the background variables, behaviors and academic performance were significantly related to the anxious/depressed problem.

Keywords: Behavioral problems, anxious/depression problems, empirical-based assessment, hierarchical modeling.

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Authors: Barbara Kilosanidze, George Kakauridze, Levan Nadareishvili, Yuri Mshvenieradze

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A new method for determining the distribution of birefringence and linear dichroism in optical polymer materials is presented. The method is based on the use of polarizationholographic diffraction grating that forms an orthogonal circular basis in the process of diffraction of probing laser beam on the grating. The intensities ratio of the orders of diffraction on this grating enables the value of birefringence and linear dichroism in the sample to be determined. The distribution of birefringence in the sample is determined by scanning with a circularly polarized beam with a wavelength far from the absorption band of the material. If the scanning is carried out by probing beam with the wavelength near to a maximum of the absorption band of the chromophore then the distribution of linear dichroism can be determined. An appropriate theoretical model of this method is presented. A laboratory setup was created for the proposed method. An optical scheme of the laboratory setup is presented. The results of measurement in polymer films with two-dimensional gradient distribution of birefringence and linear dichroism are discussed.

Keywords: Birefringence, graded oriented polymers, linear dichroism, optical polymers, optical anisotropy, polarization-holographic grating,

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Authors: Fituri H Belgassem, Abdulbasit Nigrat, Seddeeq Ghrari

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In this paper, the construction of fast algorithms for the computation of Periodic Walsh Piecewise-Linear PWL transform and the Periodic Haar Piecewise-Linear PHL transform will be presented. Algorithms for the computation of the inverse transforms are also proposed. The matrix equation of the PWL and PHL transforms are introduced. Comparison of the computational requirements for the periodic piecewise-linear transforms and other orthogonal transforms shows that the periodic piecewise-linear transforms require less number of operations than some orthogonal transforms such as the Fourier, Walsh and the Discrete Cosine transforms.

Keywords: Piece wise linear transforms, Fast transforms, Fast algorithms.

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Authors: Ing-Jr Ding

Abstract:

This paper presents a technical speaker adaptation method called WMLLR, which is based on maximum likelihood linear regression (MLLR). In MLLR, a linear regression-based transform which adapted the HMM mean vectors was calculated to maximize the likelihood of adaptation data. In this paper, the prior knowledge of the initial model is adequately incorporated into the adaptation. A series of speaker adaptation experiments are carried out at a 30 famous city names database to investigate the efficiency of the proposed method. Experimental results show that the WMLLR method outperforms the conventional MLLR method, especially when only few utterances from a new speaker are available for adaptation.

Keywords: hidden Markov model, maximum likelihood linearregression, speech recognition, speaker adaptation.

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Authors: A. Pedram, M. R. Jamali, T. Pedram, S. M. Fakhraie, C. Lucas

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Local Linear Neuro-Fuzzy Models (LLNFM) like other neuro- fuzzy systems are adaptive networks and provide robust learning capabilities and are widely utilized in various applications such as pattern recognition, system identification, image processing and prediction. Local linear model tree (LOLIMOT) is a type of Takagi-Sugeno-Kang neuro fuzzy algorithm which has proven its efficiency compared with other neuro fuzzy networks in learning the nonlinear systems and pattern recognition. In this paper, a dedicated reconfigurable and parallel processing hardware for LOLIMOT algorithm and its applications are presented. This hardware realizes on-chip learning which gives it the capability to work as a standalone device in a system. The synthesis results on FPGA platforms show its potential to improve the speed at least 250 of times faster than software implemented algorithms.

Keywords: LOLIMOT, hardware, neurofuzzy systems, reconfigurable, parallel.

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Authors: Wudhichai Assawinchaichote, Sing Kiong Nguang

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This paper examines the problem of designing a robust H∞ filter for a class of uncertain fuzzy descriptor systems described by a Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy model. Based on a linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach, LMI-based sufficient conditions for the uncertain nonlinear descriptor systems to have an H∞ performance are derived. To alleviate the ill-conditioning resulting from the interaction of slow and fast dynamic modes, solutions to the problem are given in terms of linear matrix inequalities which are independent of the singular perturbation ε, when ε is sufficiently small. The proposed approach does not involve the separation of states into slow and fast ones and it can be applied not only to standard, but also to nonstandard uncertain nonlinear descriptor systems. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the design developed in this paper.

Keywords: H∞ control, Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy model, Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMIs), Descriptor systems.

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Authors: Yasmin Mohd Yacob, Harsa A. Mat Sakim, Nor Ashidi Mat Isa

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Feature selection study is gaining importance due to its contribution to save classification cost in terms of time and computation load. In search of essential features, one of the methods to search the features is via the decision tree. Decision tree act as an intermediate feature space inducer in order to choose essential features. In decision tree-based feature selection, some studies used decision tree as a feature ranker with a direct threshold measure, while others remain the decision tree but utilized pruning condition that act as a threshold mechanism to choose features. This paper proposed threshold measure using Manhattan Hierarchical Cluster distance to be utilized in feature ranking in order to choose relevant features as part of the feature selection process. The result is promising, and this method can be improved in the future by including test cases of a higher number of attributes.

Keywords: Feature ranking, decision tree, hierarchical cluster, Manhattan distance.

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Authors: Pelaez Verdet, Antonio, Loscertales Sanchez, Pilar

Abstract:

One of the mayor problems of programming a cruise circuit is to decide which destinations to include and which don-t. Thus a decision problem emerges, that might be solved using a linear and goal programming approach. The problem becomes more complex if several boats in the fleet must be programmed in a limited schedule, trying their capacity matches best a seasonal demand and also attempting to minimize the operation costs. Moreover, the programmer of the company should consider the time of the passenger as a limited asset, and would like to maximize its usage. The aim of this work is to design a method in which, using linear and goal programming techniques, a model to design circuits for the cruise company decision maker can achieve an optimal solution within the fleet schedule.

Keywords: Itinerary design, cruise programming, goalprogramming, linear programming

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Authors: Wisuwat Plodpradista

Abstract:

Tubular linear induction motor (TLIM) can be used as a capsule pump in a large pneumatic capsule pipeline (PCP) system. Parametric performance evaluation of the designed 1-meter diameter PCP-TLIM system yields encouraging results for practical implementation. The capsule thrust and speed inside the TLIM pump can be calculated from the combination of the PCP fluid mechanics and the TLIM equations. The TLIM equivalent circuits derived from those of the conventional three-phase induction motor are used as a model to predict the static test results of a small-scale PCP-TLIM system. In this paper, additional dynamic tests are performed on the same small-scale PCP-TLIM system with two capsules of different diameters. The behaviors of the capsule inside the pump are observed and analyzed. The dynamic performances from the dynamic tests are compared with the theoretical predictions based on the TLIM equivalent circuit model.

Keywords: Pneumatic capsule pipeline, Tubular linear induction motor

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Authors: Haidar Safa, Hassan Artail, Ahmad Mehio, Hicham Zahr, Ziad Matragi

Abstract:

The Mobile IP Standard has been developed to support mobility over the Internet. This standard contains several drawbacks as in the cases where packets are routed via sub-optimal paths and significant amount of signaling messages is generated due to the home registration procedure which keeps the network aware of the current location of the mobile nodes. Recently, a dynamic hierarchical mobility management strategy for mobile IP networks (DHMIP) has been proposed to reduce home registrations costs. However, this strategy induces a packet delivery delay and increases the risk of packet loss. In this paper, we propose an enhanced version of the dynamic hierarchical strategy that reduces the packet delivery delay and minimizes the risk of packet loss. Preliminary results obtained from simulations are promising. They show that the enhanced version outperforms the original dynamic hierarchical mobility management strategy version.

Keywords: Location management, Mobile IP (MIP), Home Agent, Foreign Agent.

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Authors: G. Schuh, A. Kampker, A. Hoeschen, T. Jasinski

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Today-s manufacturing companies are facing multiple and dynamic customer-supplier-relationships embedded in nonhierarchical production networks. This complex environment leads to problems with delivery reliability and wasteful turbulences throughout the entire network. This paper describes an operational model based on a theoretical framework which improves delivery reliability of each individual customer-supplier-relationship within non-hierarchical production networks of the European machinery and equipment industry. By developing a non-centralized coordination mechanism based on determining the value of delivery reliability and derivation of an incentive system for suppliers the number of in time deliveries can be increased and thus the turbulences in the production network smoothened. Comparable to an electronic stock exchange the coordination mechanism will transform the manual and nontransparent process of determining penalties for delivery delays into an automated and transparent market mechanism creating delivery reliability.

Keywords: delivery reliability, machinery and equipmentindustry, non-hierarchical production networks, supply chainmanagement

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Authors: A. I. Dounis, P. Tiropanis, D. Tseles, G. Nikolaou, G. P. Syrcos

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The prediction of meteorological parameters at a meteorological station is an interesting and open problem. A firstorder linear dynamic model GM(1,1) is the main component of the grey system theory. The grey model requires only a few previous data points in order to make a real-time forecast. In this paper, we consider the daily average ambient temperature as a time series and the grey model GM(1,1) applied to local prediction (short-term prediction) of the temperature. In the same case study we use a fuzzy predictive model for global prediction. We conclude the paper with a comparison between local and global prediction schemes.

Keywords: Fuzzy predictive model, grey model, local andglobal prediction, meteorological forecasting, time series.

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