Search results for: Flavor forecasting

Authors: Hui Hsin Huang

Abstract:

The downstream manufactures will order their materials from different upstream suppliers to maintain a certain level of the demand. This paper proposes a bivariate model to portray this phenomenon of material demand. We use empirical data to estimate the parameters of model and evaluate the RMSD of model calibration. The results show that the model has better fitness.

Keywords: Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern family of bivariate distributions, multi-source ordering, materials demand quantity, recency, ordering time.

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Authors: F. M. Abu-Salem, M. H. Mahmoud, A. Y. Gibriel, M. H. El-Kalyoubi, A. A. Abou-Arab Arab

Abstract:

Soybean Natto powder was added to the burger in order to enhance the oxidative stability as well as decreases the microbial spoilage. The soybean bioactives compound (soybean Natto) as antioxidant and antimicrobial were added at level of 1, 2 and 3%. Chemical analysis and physical properties were affected by soybean Natto addition. All the tested soybean Natto additives showed strong antioxidant properties. The microbiological indicators were significantly (P < 0.05) affected by the addition of the soybean Natto. Decreasing trends of different extent were also observed in samples of the treatments for total viable counts, Coliform, Staphylococcus aureus, yeast and molds. Storage period was significantly (P < 0.05) affected on microbial counts in all samples Staphylococcus aureus were the most sensitive microbe followed by Coliform group of the sample containing soybean Natto. Sensory attributes were also performed, added soybean Natto exhibits beany flavor which was clear about samples of 3% soybean Natto.

Keywords: Antioxidant, antimicrobial, bioactive peptide, antioxidant peptides.

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Authors: Yu Zhou, Zhaoyang Dong, Xiaomei Zhao

Abstract:

This paper mainly investigates the environmental and economic impacts of worldwide use of electric vehicles. It can be concluded that governments have good reason to promote the use of electric vehicles. First, the global vehicles population is evaluated with the help of grey forecasting model and the amount of oil saving is estimated through approximate calculation. After that, based on the game theory, the amount and types of electricity generation needed by electronic vehicles are established. Finally, some conclusions on the government-s attitudes are drawn.

Keywords: electronic vehicles, grey prediction, game theory

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Authors: S. B. Fasoyiro, K. A. Arowora

Abstract:

Pigeon pea (Cajanus cajan) blanched for 20min was dehulled and milled into flour. The flour was incorporated into dried whole fermented maize (Ogi) at five levels. The resultant products were analyzed for chemical and pasting properties. The fortified Ogi samples were also assessed for sensory attributes: appearance, color, flavor, mouth feel and overall acceptability. The protein content in the whole Ogi fortified samples was in the range of 11.2-16.6% and crude fibre 3.22-3.46%. Fortified whole Ogi with pigeon pea at 30%, 40% and 50% of inclusion with pigeon pea flour has higher protein, crude fibre and ash content. Varying range of pasting quality was recorded for the blends, pasting temperature for fortified Obi was in the range of 45.3-49.50C and peak time 5.05-5.210C. The sensory acceptability of the whole Ogi fortified blends prepared into gruel has higher acceptability for various qualities in comparison with the traditional Ogi gruel.

Keywords: Maize Ogi, pigeon pea, chemical, pasting, sensory properties.

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Authors: A. Hemmati, H. Mirsaeedghazi, M. Aboonajmi

Abstract:

Carrot juice is one of the most nutritious foods that are consumed around the world. Large particles in carrot juice causing turbid appearance make some problems in the concentration process such as off-flavor due to the large particles burnt on the walls of evaporators. Microfiltration (MF) is a pressure driven membrane separation method that can clarify fruit juices without enzymatic treatment. Fouling is the main problem in the membrane process causing reduction of permeate flux. Ultrasound as a cleaning technique was applied at 20 kHz to reduce fouling in membrane clarification of carrot juice using dead-end MF system with polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) membrane. Results showed that application of ultrasound waves reduce diphasic characteristic of carrot juice and permeate flux increased. Evaluation of different membrane fouling mechanisms showed that application of ultrasound waves changed creation time of each fouling mechanism. Also, its behavior was changed with varying transmembrane pressure.

Keywords: Carrot juice, dead end, microfiltration, ultrasound.

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Authors: S. Nurashikin, E. Z. Rusley, A. Husaini

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Kojic acid is an organic acid that is widely used as an ingredient for dermatological products, precursor for flavor enhancer and also as anti-inflammatory drug. The present study was undertaken to test the feasibility of pineapple residues as substrate for kojic acid production by Aspergillus flavus Link 44-1 via solid-state fermentation. The effect of initial moisture content, pH and incubation time on kojic acid fermentation was investigated. The best initial moisture content for kojic acid production from pineapple residues was observed at 70% (v/w) whereas initial culture pH 2.5 was identified to give high production of kojic acid. The optimal range of incubation time was identified between 8 and 14 days of incubation which corresponded to highest range of kojic acid produced. The results from this study pronounce the promising usability of pineapple residues as alternative substrate for kojic acid production by A. flavus Link 44-1.

Keywords: Aspergillus flavus, kojic acid, pineapple residues, solid state fermentation.

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Authors: H. Rasouli Pirouzian, J. Hesari, S. Farajnia, M. Moghaddam, S. Ghiassifar, M. Manafi

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Lighvan cheese is basically made from sheep milk in the area of Sahand mountainside which is located in the North West of Iran. The main objective of this study was to investigate the effect of enterococci isolated from traditional Lighvan cheese on the quality of Iranian UF white during ripening. The experimental design was split plot based on randomized complete blocks, main plots were four types of starters and subplots were different ripening durations. Addition of Enterococcus spp. did not significantly (P<0.01) affect the pH and gross composition of cheeses. In the cheeses produced with Ent. faecalis and Ent. faecium strains, lipolysis rates were higher and flavor were improved. Moreover, proteolysis assay by measuring percentage of soluble nitrogen at pH 4.6 and urea polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis indicated the increase in proteolysis rate in the cheese containing Ent. faecalis and Ent. faecium strains compared to the control cheeses. Furthermore, the highest percentage of non- protein nitrogen was observed in the cheese containing Ent. faecium. In conclusion, the results showed the positive effect of the Ent. faecalis and Ent. faecium on secondary proteolysis, lipolysis and sensorial characteristics development of UF white cheeses.

Keywords: Enterococcus faecalis, Enterococcus faecium, Lighvan cheese, Lipolysis, Proteolysis, UF cheese

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Authors: Lily Ingsrisawang, Supawadee Ingsriswang, Saisuda Somchit, Prasert Aungsuratana, Warawut Khantiyanan

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This paper presents the methodology from machine learning approaches for short-term rain forecasting system. Decision Tree, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) were applied to develop classification and prediction models for rainfall forecasts. The goals of this presentation are to demonstrate (1) how feature selection can be used to identify the relationships between rainfall occurrences and other weather conditions and (2) what models can be developed and deployed for predicting the accurate rainfall estimates to support the decisions to launch the cloud seeding operations in the northeastern part of Thailand. Datasets collected during 2004-2006 from the Chalermprakiat Royal Rain Making Research Center at Hua Hin, Prachuap Khiri khan, the Chalermprakiat Royal Rain Making Research Center at Pimai, Nakhon Ratchasima and Thai Meteorological Department (TMD). A total of 179 records with 57 features was merged and matched by unique date. There are three main parts in this work. Firstly, a decision tree induction algorithm (C4.5) was used to classify the rain status into either rain or no-rain. The overall accuracy of classification tree achieves 94.41% with the five-fold cross validation. The C4.5 algorithm was also used to classify the rain amount into three classes as no-rain (0-0.1 mm.), few-rain (0.1- 10 mm.), and moderate-rain (>10 mm.) and the overall accuracy of classification tree achieves 62.57%. Secondly, an ANN was applied to predict the rainfall amount and the root mean square error (RMSE) were used to measure the training and testing errors of the ANN. It is found that the ANN yields a lower RMSE at 0.171 for daily rainfall estimates, when compared to next-day and next-2-day estimation. Thirdly, the ANN and SVM techniques were also used to classify the rain amount into three classes as no-rain, few-rain, and moderate-rain as above. The results achieved in 68.15% and 69.10% of overall accuracy of same-day prediction for the ANN and SVM models, respectively. The obtained results illustrated the comparison of the predictive power of different methods for rainfall estimation.

Keywords: Machine learning, decision tree, artificial neural network, support vector machine, root mean square error.

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Authors: Mahmoud Zarrini, R. N. Pralhad

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Avalanche velocity (from start to track zone) has been estimated in the present model for an avalanche which is triggered artificially by an explosive devise. The initial development of the model has been from the concept of micro-continuum theories [1], underwater explosions [2] and from fracture mechanics [3] with appropriate changes to the present model. The model has been computed for different slab depth R, slope angle θ, snow density ¤ü, viscosity μ, eddy viscosity η*and couple stress parameter η. The applicability of the present model in the avalanche forecasting has been highlighted.

Keywords: Snow avalanche velocity, avalanche zones, shockwave, couple stress fluids.

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Authors: T. K. Sriram, Joydip Dhar

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Models based on stage structure have found varied applications in population models. This paper proposes a stage structured model to study the trends in the computer and video game playing population of US. The game paying population is divided into three compartments based on their age group. After simulating the mathematical model, a forecast of the number of game players in each stage as well as an approximation of the average age of game players in future has been made.

Keywords: Age structure, Forecasting, Mathematical modeling, Stage structure.

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Authors: Jan Sindelar

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The paper presents an applied study of a multivariate AR(p) process fitted to daily data from U.S. commodity futures markets with the use of Bayesian statistics. In the first part a detailed description of the methods used is given. In the second part two BVAR models are chosen one with assumption of lognormal, the second with normal distribution of prices conditioned on the parameters. For a comparison two simple benchmark models are chosen that are commonly used in todays Financial Mathematics. The article compares the quality of predictions of all the models, tries to find an adequate rate of forgetting of information and questions the validity of Efficient Market Hypothesis in the semi-strong form.

Keywords: Vector auto-regression, forecasting, financial, Bayesian, efficient markets.

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Authors: Alexander P. Eremeev, Ivan E. Kurilenko, Pavel R. Varshavskiy

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In this paper the problem of the application of temporal reasoning and case-based reasoning in intelligent decision support systems is considered. The method of case-based reasoning with temporal dependences for the solution of problems of real-time diagnostics and forecasting in intelligent decision support systems is described. This paper demonstrates how the temporal case-based reasoning system can be used in intelligent decision support systems of the car access control. This work was supported by RFBR.

Keywords: Analogous reasoning, case-based reasoning, intelligent decision support systems, temporal reasoning.

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Authors: Ε. Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper we propose and examine an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) in Smoothing Transition Autoregressive (STAR) modeling. Because STAR models follow fuzzy logic approach, in the non-linear part fuzzy rules can be incorporated or other training or computational methods can be applied as the error backpropagation algorithm instead to nonlinear squares. Furthermore, additional fuzzy membership functions can be examined, beside the logistic and exponential, like the triangle, Gaussian and Generalized Bell functions among others. We examine two macroeconomic variables of US economy, the inflation rate and the 6-monthly treasury bills interest rates.

Keywords: Forecasting, Neuro-Fuzzy, Smoothing transition, Time-series

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Authors: James D. Clark, Bernard H. Stark

Abstract:

The paper presents a modelling methodology for small scale multi-source renewable energy systems. Using historical site-specific weather data, the relationships of cost, availability and energy form are visualised as a function of the sizing of photovoltaic arrays, wind turbines, and battery capacity. The specific dependency of each site on its own particular weather patterns show that unique solutions exist for each site. It is shown that in certain cases the capital component cost can be halved if the desired theoretical demand availability is reduced from 100% to 99%.

Keywords: Energy Analysis, Forecasting, Distributed powergeneration.

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Authors: Hy Dang, Bo Mei

Abstract:

The development of machine learning methods and techniques has opened doors for investigation in many areas such as medicines, economics, finance, etc. One active research area involving machine learning is stock market prediction. This research paper tries to consider multiple techniques and methods for stock movement prediction using historical price or price factors. The paper explores the effectiveness of some deep learning frameworks for forecasting stock. Moreover, an architecture (TimeStock) is proposed which takes the representation of time into account apart from the price information itself. Our model achieves a promising result that shows a potential approach for the stock movement prediction problem.

Keywords: Classification, machine learning, time representation, stock prediction.

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Authors: Shih-Ching Lo

Abstract:

Discrete choice model is the most used methodology for studying traveler-s mode choice and demand. However, to calibrate the discrete choice model needs to have plenty of questionnaire survey. In this study, an aggregative model is proposed. The historical data of passenger volumes for high speed rail and domestic civil aviation are employed to calibrate and validate the model. In this study, different models are compared so as to propose the best one. From the results, systematic equations forecast better than single equation do. Models with the external variable, which is oil price, are better than models based on closed system assumption.

Keywords: forecasting, passenger volume, dynamic competition model, external variable, oil price

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Authors: Irwin Ma, Tony Wong, Thiagas Sankar

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By systematically applying different engineering methods, difficult financial problems become approachable. Using a combination of theory and techniques such as wavelet transform, time series data mining, Markov chain based discrete stochastic optimization, and evolutionary algorithms, this work formulated a strategy to characterize and forecast non-linear time series. It attempted to extract typical features from the volatility data sets of S&P100 and S&P500 indices that include abrupt drops, jumps and other non-linearity. As a result, accuracy of forecasting has reached an average of over 75% surpassing any other publicly available results on the forecast of any financial index.

Keywords: Discrete stochastic optimization, genetic algorithms, genetic programming, volatility forecast

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Authors: Jaruwan Chutrtong

Abstract:

This research aims to study consumer acceptance of Tempeh from various raw materials (type of bean) and determine protein contents for comparison. Tempeh made from soybean, peanut, white kidney bean and sesame in the ratio: - soybean:sesame =1:0.1, soybean:white kidney:sesame =1:1:0.1, soybean:peanut:sesame =1:1:0.1 and peanut:white kidney bean: sesame =1:1:0.1. The study found that consumer is most satisfied with appearances on soybean mixed with white kidney and black sesame tempeh (3.98). The most satisfied tempeh with textures is soybean mixed with peanut and black sesame tempeh (4.00). The most satisfied tempeh with odor is peanut mixed with white kidney bean and black sesame tempeh (4.04). And the most satisfied tempeh with flavor is peanut mixed with white kidney bean and black sesame tempeh (4.2). The amount of protein in production, soybean tempeh has the highest protein. When we add sesame seeds, it made the protein content slightly decreased (1.86 and 0.6 %). When we use peanut as raw material, the protein content decreased 15.3%. And when we use white kidney bean as raw material, the protein content decreased (22.77- 26.11%). 

Keywords: Acceptance, bean, protein content, tempeh.

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Authors: S. Kotsiantis, A. Kostoulas, S. Lykoudis, A. Argiriou, K. Menagias

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Estimates of temperature values at a specific time of day, from daytime and daily profiles, are needed for a number of environmental, ecological, agricultural and technical applications, ranging from natural hazards assessments, crop growth forecasting to design of solar energy systems. The scope of this research is to investigate the efficiency of data mining techniques in estimating minimum, maximum and mean temperature values. For this reason, a number of experiments have been conducted with well-known regression algorithms using temperature data from the city of Patras in Greece. The performance of these algorithms has been evaluated using standard statistical indicators, such as Correlation Coefficient, Root Mean Squared Error, etc.

Keywords: regression algorithms, supervised machine learning.

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Authors: Shiann-Shiun Jeng, Chen-Wan Tsung, Hong-You Liou, Chun-Chieh Chang, Jia-Ming Chen

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The coverage probability and range of IEEE 802.16 systems depend on different wireless scenarios. Evaluating the performance of IEEE 802.16 systems over Stanford University Interim (SUI) channels is suggested by IEEE 802.16 specifications. In order to derive an effective method for forecasting the coverage probability and range, this study uses the SUI channel model to analyze the coverage probability with Rayleigh fading for an IEEE 802.16 system. The BER of the IEEE 802.16 system is shown in the simulation results. Then, the maximum allowed path loss can be calculated and substituted into the coverage analysis. Therefore, simulation results show the coverage range with and without Rayleigh fading.

Keywords: OFDM, coverage, SUI channel, IEEE 802.16

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Authors: B. Q. Huang, Tarik Rashid, M-T. Kechadi

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this paper presents a multi-context recurrent network for time series analysis. While simple recurrent network (SRN) are very popular among recurrent neural networks, they still have some shortcomings in terms of learning speed and accuracy that need to be addressed. To solve these problems, we proposed a multi-context recurrent network (MCRN) with three different learning algorithms. The performance of this network is evaluated on some real-world application such as handwriting recognition and energy load forecasting. We study the performance of this network and we compared it to a very well established SRN. The experimental results showed that MCRN is very efficient and very well suited to time series analysis and its applications.

Keywords: Gradient descent method, recurrent neural network, learning algorithms, time series, BP

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Authors: Kazem Alirezalu, Javad Hesari, Zabihollah Nemati, Boukaga Farmani

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The application of natural plant extracts which are rich in promising antioxidants and antimicrobial ingredients in the production of frankfurter-type sausages addresses consumer demands for healthier, more functional meat products. The effects of olive leaves, green tea and Urtica dioica L. extracts on physicochemical, microbiological and sensory characteristic of frankfurter-type sausage were investigated during 45 days of storage at 4 °C. The results revealed that pH and phenolic compounds decreased significantly (P < 0.05) in all samples during storage. Sausages containing 500 ppm green tea extract (1.78 mg/kg) showed the lowest TBARS values compared to olive leaves (2.01 mg/kg), Urtica dioica L. (2.26 mg/kg) extracts and control (2.74 mg/kg). Plant extracts significantly (P < 0.05) reduced the count of total mesophilic bacteria, yeast and mold by at least 2 log cycles (CFU/g) than those of control samples. Sensory characteristics of texture showed no difference (P > 0.05) between sausage samples, but sausage containing Urtica dioica L. extract had the highest score regarding flavor, freshness odor, and overall acceptability. Based on the results, sausage containing plant extracts could have a significant impact on antimicrobial activity, antioxidant capacity, sensory score, and shelf life stability of frankfurter-type sausage.

Keywords: Antimicrobial, antioxidant, frankfurter-type sausage, green tea, olive oil, shelf life, Urtica dioica L.

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Authors: E. Abustam, M. I. Said, M. Yusuf, H. M. Ali

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This study aims to examine the sensory quality of meatballs made from Balinese beef and buffalo meat after the addition of smoke powder prior to storage at the temperatures of 2- 5°C for 7 days. This study used meat from Longissimus dorsi muscle of male Balinese cattle aged 3 years and of male buffalo aged 5 years as the main raw materials, and smoke powder as a binder and preservative in making meatballs. The study was based on completely randomized design (CRD) of factorial pattern of 2 x 3 x 2 where factors 1, 2 and 3 included the types of meat (cattle and buffalo), types of smoke powder (oven dried, freeze dried and spray dried) with a level of 2% of the weight of the meat (w/w), and storage duration (0 and 7 days) with three replications, respectively. The parameters measured were the meatball sensory quality (scores of tenderness, firmness, chewing residue, and intensity of flavor). The results of this study show that each type of meat has produced different sensory characteristics. The meatballs made from buffalo meat have higher tenderness and elasticity scores than the Balinese beef. Meanwhile, the buffalo meatballs have a lower residue mastication score than the Balinese beef. Each type of smoke powders has produced a relatively similar sensory quality of meatballs. It can be concluded that the smoke powder of 2% of the weight of the meat (w/w) could maintain the sensory quality of the meatballs for 7 days of storage.

Keywords: Balinese beef meatballs, buffalo meatballs, sensory quality, smoke powder.

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Authors: Brian A. Smith, Ronald W. McClendon, Gerrit Hoogenboom

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The mitigation of crop loss due to damaging freezes requires accurate air temperature prediction models. An improved model for temperature prediction in Georgia was developed by including information on seasonality and modifying parameters of an existing artificial neural network model. Alternative models were compared by instantiating and training multiple networks for each model. The inclusion of up to 24 hours of prior weather information and inputs reflecting the day of year were among improvements that reduced average four-hour prediction error by 0.18°C compared to the prior model. Results strongly suggest model developers should instantiate and train multiple networks with different initial weights to establish appropriate model parameters.

Keywords: Time-series forecasting, weather modeling.

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Authors: Senem Suna, Canan Ece Tamer, Ömer Utku Çopur

Abstract:

In this research, dried linden (Tilia argentea) leaves and blossoms were used as a raw material for mineral enriched herbal tea beverage production. For this aim, %1 dried linden was infused with boiling water (100 °C) for 5 minutes. After cooling, sucrose, citric acid, ascorbic acid, natural lemon flavor and natural mineral water were added. Beverage samples were plate filtered, filled into 200-mL glass bottles, capped then pasteurized at 98 °C for 15 minutes. Water soluble dry matter, titratable acidity, ascorbic acid, pH, minerals (Fe, Ca, Mg, K, Na), color (L*, a*, b*), turbidity, bioaccessible phenolics and antioxidant capacity were analyzed. Water soluble dry matter, titratable acidity, and ascorbic were determined as 7.66±0.28 g/100 g, 0.13±0.00 g/100 mL, and 19.42±0.62 mg/100 mL, respectively. pH was measured as 3.69. Fe, Ca, Mg, K and Na contents of the beverage were determined as 0.12±0.00, 115.48±0.05, 34.72±0.14, 48.67±0.43 and 85.72±1.01 mg/L, respectively. Color was measured as 13.63±0.05, -4.33±0.05, and 3.06±0.05 for L*, a*, and b* values. Turbidity was determined as 0.69±0.07 NTU. Bioaccessible phenolics were determined as 312.82±5.91 mg GAE/100 mL. Antioxidant capacities of chemical (MetOH:H₂O:HCl) and physiological extracts (in vitro digestive enzymatic extraction) with DPPH (27.59±0.53 and 0.17±0.02 μmol trolox/mL), FRAP (21.01±0.97 and 13.27±0.19 μmol trolox/mL) and CUPRAC (44.71±9.42 and 2.80±0.64 μmol trolox/mL) methods were also evaluated. As a result, enrichment with natural mineral water was proposed for the development of functional and nutritional values together with a good potential for commercialization.

Keywords: Antioxidant capacity, bioaccessibility, herbal tea beverage, linden.

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Authors: F. M. Abu-Salem, M. H. Mahmoud, M. H. El-Kalyoubi, A. Y. Gibriel, A. A. Abou-Arab Arab

Abstract:

Dried soy protein hydrolysate powder was added to the burger in order to enhance the oxidative stability as well as decreases the microbial spoilage. The soybean bioactive compounds (soy protein hydrolysate) as antioxidant and antimicrobial were added at level of 1, 2 and 3 %.Chemical analysis and physical properties were affected by protein hydrolysate addition. The TBA values were significantly affected (P < 0.05) by the storage period and the level of soy protein hydrolysate. All the tested soybean protein hydrolysate additives showed strong antioxidant properties. Samples of soybean protein hydrolysate showed the lowest (P < 0.05) TBA values at each time of storage. The counts of all determined microbiological indicators were significantly (P < 0.05) affected by the addition of the soybean protein hydrolysate. Decreasing trends of different extent were also observed in samples of the treatments for total viable counts, Coliform, Staphylococcus aureus, yeast and molds. Storage period was being significantly (P < 0.05) affected on microbial counts in all samples Staphylococcus aureus were the most sensitive microbe followed by Coliform group of the sample containing protein hydrolysate, while molds and yeast count showed a decreasing trend but not significant (P < 0.05) until the end of the storage period compared with control sample. Sensory attributes were also performed, added protein hydrolysate exhibits beany flavor which was clear about samples of 3% protein hydrolysate.

Keywords: Antioxidant, antimicrobial, isoflavones, bioactive peptide, antioxidant peptides, soybean protein hydrolysate.

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Authors: A. I. Dounis, P. Tiropanis, D. Tseles, G. Nikolaou, G. P. Syrcos

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The prediction of meteorological parameters at a meteorological station is an interesting and open problem. A firstorder linear dynamic model GM(1,1) is the main component of the grey system theory. The grey model requires only a few previous data points in order to make a real-time forecast. In this paper, we consider the daily average ambient temperature as a time series and the grey model GM(1,1) applied to local prediction (short-term prediction) of the temperature. In the same case study we use a fuzzy predictive model for global prediction. We conclude the paper with a comparison between local and global prediction schemes.

Keywords: Fuzzy predictive model, grey model, local andglobal prediction, meteorological forecasting, time series.

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Authors: Mohamed Tarek Khadir, Damien Fay, Ahmed Boughrira

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Short term electricity demand forecasts are required by power utilities for efficient operation of the power grid. In a competitive market environment, suppliers and large consumers also require short term forecasts in order to estimate their energy requirements in advance. Electricity demand is influenced (among other things) by the day of the week, the time of year and special periods and/or days such as Ramadhan, all of which must be identified prior to modelling. This identification, known as day-type identification, must be included in the modelling stage either by segmenting the data and modelling each day-type separately or by including the day-type as an input. Day-type identification is the main focus of this paper. A Kohonen map is employed to identify the separate day-types in Algerian data.

Keywords: Day type identification, electricity Load, Kohonenmaps, load forecasting.

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Authors: Shih-Pin Chen, Shih-Syuan You

Abstract:

Fuzzy regression models are useful for investigating the relationship between explanatory variables and responses in fuzzy environments. To overcome the deficiencies of previous models and increase the explanatory power of fuzzy data, the graded mean integration (GMI) representation is applied to determine representative crisp regression coefficients. A fuzzy regression model is constructed based on the modified dissemblance index (MDI), which can precisely measure the actual total error. Compared with previous studies based on the proposed MDI and distance criterion, the results from commonly used test examples show that the proposed fuzzy linear regression model has higher explanatory power and forecasting accuracy.

Keywords: Dissemblance index, fuzzy linear regression, graded mean integration, mathematical programming.

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Authors: Georgia Pozoukidou

Abstract:

TELUM software is a land use model designed specifically to help metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) prepare their transportation improvement programs and fulfill their numerous planning responsibilities. In this context obtaining, preparing, and validating socioeconomic forecasts are becoming fundamental tasks for an MPO in order to ensure that consistent population and employment data are provided to travel demand models. Chittenden County Metropolitan Planning Organization of Vermont State was used as a case study to test the applicability of TELUM land use model. The technical insights and lessons learned from the land use model application have transferable value for all MPOs faced with land use forecasting development and transportation modeling.

Keywords: Calibration data requirements, land use models, land use planning, Metropolitan Planning Organizations.

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