Search results for: Layer Growth Kinetic.

Authors: M. Dachyar, Yudavedito

Abstract:

The rising growth of the GSM cellular phone industry has tightening competition level between providers in making strategies enhancing the market shares in Indonesia. Tsel, as one of those companies, has to determine the proper strategy to sustain as well as improve the market share without reducing its operational income level. Portfolio simulation model is designed with a dynamic system approach. The result of this research is a recommendation to the company by optimizing its technological policies, services, and promotions. The tariff policies and the signal quality should not be the main focus because this company has had a large number of customers and a good infrastructural condition.

Keywords: Telecommunication industry, simulation, dynamic system, portfolio, quality services.

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Authors: Hanaa T. El-Madany, Faten H. Fahmy, Ninet M. A. El-Rahman, Hassen T. Dorrah

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Designing and implementing intelligent systems has become a crucial factor for the innovation and development of better products of space technologies. A neural network is a parallel system, capable of resolving paradigms that linear computing cannot. Field programmable gate array (FPGA) is a digital device that owns reprogrammable properties and robust flexibility. For the neural network based instrument prototype in real time application, conventional specific VLSI neural chip design suffers the limitation in time and cost. With low precision artificial neural network design, FPGAs have higher speed and smaller size for real time application than the VLSI and DSP chips. So, many researchers have made great efforts on the realization of neural network (NN) using FPGA technique. In this paper, an introduction of ANN and FPGA technique are briefly shown. Also, Hardware Description Language (VHDL) code has been proposed to implement ANNs as well as to present simulation results with floating point arithmetic. Synthesis results for ANN controller are developed using Precision RTL. Proposed VHDL implementation creates a flexible, fast method and high degree of parallelism for implementing ANN. The implementation of multi-layer NN using lookup table LUT reduces the resource utilization for implementation and time for execution.

Keywords: Spacecraft, neural network, FPGA, VHDL.

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Authors: Justice K. Owusu-Ansah, Kevin O'Connor

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This research explores the links between physical development and transportation infrastructure around Kumasi, Ghana. It utilizes census data as well as fieldwork and interviews carried out during July and December 2005. The results suggest that there is a weak association between transportation investments and physical development, and that recent housing has generally occurred in poorly accessible locations. Road investments have generally followed physical expansion rather than the reverse. Hence policies designed to manage the fast growth now occurring around Ghanaian cities should not focus exclusively on improving transportation infrastructure but also strengthening the underlying the traditional land management structures and the official land administrative institutions that operate within those structures.

Keywords: Housing, Kumasi, population, physical development, transportation, villages.

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Authors: Elise Stephanie Mvodo Meyo, Dapeng Liang

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Recently, Cassava has been the driving force of many developing countries- economic progress. To attain this level, prerequisites were put in place enabling cassava sector to become an industrial and a highly competitive crop. Cameroon can achieve the same results. Moreover, it can upgrade the living conditions of both rural and urban dwellers and stimulate the development of the whole economy. Achieving this outcome calls for agricultural policy reforms. The adoption and implementation of adequate policies go along with efficient strategies. To choose effective strategies, an indepth investigation of the sector-s problems is highly recommended. This paper uses gap analysis method to evaluate cassava sector in Cameroon. It studies the present situation (where it is now), interrogates the future (where it should be) and finally proposes solutions to fill the gap.

Keywords: Cameroon, cassava sector, drivers of agricultural growth, gap analysis.

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Authors: Won-Sub Lee, Sung-Gaun Kim

Abstract:

Rotational Smart Lighting Control System can supply the quantity of lighting which is required to run plants by rotating few LED and Fluorescent instead of that are used in the existing plant factories.The initial installation of the existing plants factory is expensive, so in order to solve the problem with smart lighting control system was developed. The beam required intensity for the growth of crops, Photosynthetic Photon Flux Density(PPFD)is calculated; and the number of LED, are installed on the blades, set; using the Lighting Simulation Program.Relux, it is able to confirm that the difference of the beam intensity between the center and the outer of lighting system when the lighting device is rotating.

Keywords: Plant Factory, Lighting Control System, Rotational Lighting System, Lighting Equipment

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Authors: Zairunisha

Abstract:

This paper is concerned with the ways in which Assisted Reproductive Technologies (ARTs) affect women’s lives and perceptions regarding their infertility, contraception and reproductive health. The paper is based on a qualitative feminist survey study to explore and analyze issues arising from the use of ARTs by women in New Delhi, the capital of India. A rapid growth in the number of fertility clinics has been noticed recently. A critical analysis of interviews revealed that these technologies are used and developed for making profits at the cost of women’s lives. In this way, these technologies are influencing and changing the traditional patterns of motherhood requiring a rethinking about new ways of reproduction introduced through the use of ARTs.

Keywords: Assisted reproductive technologies, new ways reproduction, voluntary and involuntary choice, women.

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Authors: Sunil Dehipawala, Gayathrie Amarasuriya, N. Gadura, G. Tremberger Jr, D. Lieberman, Harry Gafney, Todd Holden, T. Cheung

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The iron environment in Fe-doped Vycor Anode was investigated with EXAFS using Brookhaven Synchrotron Light Source. The iron-reducing Shewanella oneidensis culture was grown in a microbial fuel cell under anaerobic respiration. The Fe bond length was found to decrease and correlate with the amount of biofilm growth on the Fe-doped Vycor Anode. The data suggests that Fe-doped Vycor Anode would be a good substrate to study the Shewanella oneidensis nanowire structure using EXAFS.

Keywords: EXAFS, Fourier Transform, Microbial Fuel Cell, Shewanella oneidensis.

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Authors: Z. Mazrouei-Sebdani, A. Khoddami, H. Hadadzadeh, M. Zarrebini

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In this research, waterglass based aerogel powder was prepared by sol–gel process and ambient pressure drying. Inspired by limited dust releasing, aerogel powder was introduced to the PET electrospinning solution in an attempt to create required bulk and surface structure for the nanofibers to improve their hydrophobic and insulation properties. The samples evaluation was carried out by measuring density, porosity, contact angle, heat transfer, FTIR, BET, and SEM. According to the results, porous silica aerogel powder was fabricated with mean pore diameter of 24 nm and contact angle of 145.9º. The results indicated the usefulness of the aerogel powder confined into nanofibers to control surface roughness for manipulating superhydrophobic nanowebs with water contact angle of 147º. It can be due to a multi-scale surface roughness which was created by nanowebs structure itself and nanofibers surface irregularity in presence of the aerogels while a layer of fluorocarbon created low surface energy. The wettability of a solid substrate is an important property that is controlled by both the chemical composition and geometry of the surface. Also, a decreasing trend in the heat transfer was observed from 22% for the nanofibers without any aerogel powder to 8% for the nanofibers with 4% aerogel powder. The development of thermal insulating materials has become increasingly more important than ever in view of the fossil energy depletion and global warming that call for more demanding energysaving practices.

Keywords: Superhydrophobicity, Insulation, Sol-gel, Surface energy, Roughness.

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Authors: Zhanna Mingaleva, Kseniy Balkova

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Today many countries have the ambitious purposes of long-term and continuous development: constant growth of competitiveness, maintenance of a high standard of living of the population, leadership in the world market. One of the best possible ways of achievement of these purposes is a transition of the countries to innovative economy. The paper presents the analyses of problems of forming of innovative receptivity to innovations and creation of «innovative society». Creation of an innovative culture in a society and increase of the level of prestige of innovative activity are the best ways of developing of innovative processes. The base of the analysis is a comparing of Russia and different developed countries according to the level of some indictors of innovative activity.1

Keywords: innovative activity, innovative development ofeconomy, innovative receptivity, «innovative society»

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Authors: Neslihan Genckal, Reha Gursoy, Vedat Z. Dogan

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In this study, dynamic responses of composite plates on elastic foundations subjected to impact and moving loads are investigated. The first order shear deformation (FSDT) theory is used for moderately thick plates. Pasternak-type (two-parameter) elastic foundation is assumed. Elastic foundation effects are integrated into the governing equations. It is assumed that plate is first hit by a mass as an impact type loading then the mass continues to move on the composite plate as a distributed moving loading, which resembles the aircraft landing on airport pavements. Impact and moving loadings are modeled by a mass-spring-damper system with a wheel. The wheel is assumed to be continuously in contact with the plate after impact. The governing partial differential equations of motion for displacements are converted into the ordinary differential equations in the time domain by using Galerkin’s method. Then, these sets of equations are solved by using the Runge-Kutta method. Several parameters such as vertical and horizontal velocities of the aircraft, volume fractions of the steel rebar in the reinforced concrete layer, and the different touchdown locations of the aircraft tire on the runway are considered in the numerical simulation. The results are compared with those of the ABAQUS, which is a commercial finite element code.

Keywords: Elastic foundation, impact, moving load, thick plate.

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Authors: Ngoc Trung Ngo, Buddhima Indraratna, Cholachat Rujikiathmakjornr

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For several hundred years, the design of railway tracks has practically remained unchanged. Traditionally, rail tracks are placed on a ballast layer due to several reasons, including economy, rapid drainage, and high load bearing capacity. The primary function of ballast is to distributing dynamic track loads to sub-ballast and subgrade layers, while also providing lateral resistance and allowing for rapid drainage. Upon repeated trainloads, the ballast becomes fouled due to ballast degradation and the intrusion of fines which adversely affects the strength and deformation behaviour of ballast. This paper presents the use of three-dimensional discrete element method (DEM) in studying the shear behaviour of the fouled ballast subjected to direct shear loading. Irregularly shaped particles of ballast were modelled by grouping many spherical balls together in appropriate sizes to simulate representative ballast aggregates. Fouled ballast was modelled by injecting a specified number of miniature spherical particles into the void spaces. The DEM simulation highlights that the peak shear stress of the ballast assembly decreases and the dilation of fouled ballast increases with an increase level of fouling. Additionally, the distributions of contact force chain and particle displacement vectors were captured during shearing progress, explaining the formation of shear band and the evolutions of volumetric change of fouled ballast.

Keywords: Railway ballast, coal fouling, discrete element modelling, discrete element method.

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Authors: Andreas L. Savvides

Abstract:

The proposed paper examines strategies whose aim is to counter the all too often sighted process of abandonment that characterizes contemporary cities. The city of Nicosia in Cyprus is used as an indicative case study, whereby several recent projects are presented as capitalizing on traditional cultural assets to revive the downtown. The reuse of existing building stock as museums, performing arts centers and theaters but also as in the form of various housing typologies is geared to strengthen the ranks of local residents and to spur economic growth. Unlike the examples from the 1960s, the architecture of more recent adaptive reuse for urban regeneration seems to be geared in reinforcing a connection to the city where the buildings often reflect the characteristics of their urban context.

Keywords: Public Housing, Building Rehabilitation, Urban Regeneration, Population Integration

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Authors: Mahmoud Gilany, Wael Al-Hasawi

Abstract:

Preliminary studies on Kuwait high voltage transmission system show significant increase in the short circuit level at some of the grid substations and some generating stations. This increase results from the growth in the power transmission systems in size and complexity. New generating stations are expected to be added to the system within the next few years. This paper describes the study analysis performed to evaluate the available and potential solutions to control SC levels in Kuwait power system. It also presents a modified planning of the transmission network in order to fulfill this task.

Keywords: Short circuit current, network splitting, fault current limiter, power transmission planning.

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Authors: S. Kotsiantis, A. Kostoulas, S. Lykoudis, A. Argiriou, K. Menagias

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Estimates of temperature values at a specific time of day, from daytime and daily profiles, are needed for a number of environmental, ecological, agricultural and technical applications, ranging from natural hazards assessments, crop growth forecasting to design of solar energy systems. The scope of this research is to investigate the efficiency of data mining techniques in estimating minimum, maximum and mean temperature values. For this reason, a number of experiments have been conducted with well-known regression algorithms using temperature data from the city of Patras in Greece. The performance of these algorithms has been evaluated using standard statistical indicators, such as Correlation Coefficient, Root Mean Squared Error, etc.

Keywords: regression algorithms, supervised machine learning.

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Authors: Swapna Bhargavi Gantasala

Abstract:

If teamwork is the key to organizational learning, productivity and growth, then, why do some teams succeed in achieving these, while others falter at different stages? Building teams in higher education institutions has been a challenge and an open-ended constructivist approach was considered on an experimental basis for this study to address this challenge. For this research, teams of students from the MBA program were chosen to study the effect of teamwork in learning, the motivation levels among student team members, and the effect of collaboration in achieving team goals. The teams were built on shared vision and goals, cohesion was ensured, positive induction in the form of faculty mentoring was provided for each participating team and the results have been presented with conclusions and suggestions.

Keywords: Collaboration, Leadership, Motivation, Reinforcement Teamwork.

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Authors: Anindya Roy, Goutam Saha

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Rapid progress in audio compression technology has contributed to the explosive growth of music available in digital form today. In a reversal of ideas, this work makes use of a recently proposed efficient audio compression scheme to develop three important applications in the context of Music Information Retrieval (MIR) for the effective manipulation of large music databases, namely automatic music recommendation (AMR), digital rights management (DRM) and audio finger-printing for song identification. The performance of these three applications has been evaluated with respect to a database of songs collected from a diverse set of genres.

Keywords: Audio compression, Music Information Retrieval, Digital Rights Management, Audio Fingerprinting.

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Authors: Jatinderkumar R. Saini, Apurva A. Desai

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In recent times, the problem of Unsolicited Bulk Email (UBE) or commonly known as Spam Email, has increased at a tremendous growth rate. We present an analysis of survey based on classifications of UBE in various research works. There are many research instances for classification between spam and non-spam emails but very few research instances are available for classification of spam emails, per se. This paper does not intend to assert some UBE classification to be better than the others nor does it propose any new classification but it bemoans the lack of harmony on number and definition of categories proposed by different researchers. The paper also elaborates on factors like intent of spammer, content of UBE and ambiguity in different categories as proposed in related research works of classifications of UBE.

Keywords: E-mail, Scams, Spam Email, Unsolicited Bulk Email(UBE)

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Authors: Kwok Tak Kit

Abstract:

In view of the global population is increasing; it is the prime concern of government and community to diversify the dense population to regional area and maintain a healthy and sustained economic growth. This paper is to outline the interaction of different attributes which critically affect regional development, infrastructure and tourism. This research not only focused on the relation and interaction of regional development and associated infrastructure but also provides a holistic study and review of the ecosystem of regional development, infrastructure and tourism development. In this study, we will review the three aspects development and their interaction in different cities in Asia. The finding will demonstrate how those factors affect the ecosystem and sustainability and provide some insight and material for further review and discussion.

Keywords: Regional development, infrastructure, sustainability, tourism.

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Authors: Fereydoon Sarmadian, Ali Keshavarzi

Abstract:

Study of soil properties like field capacity (F.C.) and permanent wilting point (P.W.P.) play important roles in study of soil moisture retention curve. Although these parameters can be measured directly, their measurement is difficult and expensive. Pedotransfer functions (PTFs) provide an alternative by estimating soil parameters from more readily available soil data. In this investigation, 70 soil samples were collected from different horizons of 15 soil profiles located in the Ziaran region, Qazvin province, Iran. The data set was divided into two subsets for calibration (80%) and testing (20%) of the models and their normality were tested by Kolmogorov-Smirnov method. Both multivariate regression and artificial neural network (ANN) techniques were employed to develop the appropriate PTFs for predicting soil parameters using easily measurable characteristics of clay, silt, O.C, S.P, B.D and CaCO3. The performance of the multivariate regression and ANN models was evaluated using an independent test data set. In order to evaluate the models, root mean square error (RMSE) and R2 were used. The comparison of RSME for two mentioned models showed that the ANN model gives better estimates of F.C and P.W.P than the multivariate regression model. The value of RMSE and R2 derived by ANN model for F.C and P.W.P were (2.35, 0.77) and (2.83, 0.72), respectively. The corresponding values for multivariate regression model were (4.46, 0.68) and (5.21, 0.64), respectively. Results showed that ANN with five neurons in hidden layer had better performance in predicting soil properties than multivariate regression.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, Field capacity, Permanentwilting point, Pedotransfer functions.

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Authors: Imen Aouini, Lamia Ben Azzouz

Abstract:

The energy need is growing rapidly due to the population growth and the large new usage of power. Several works put considerable efforts to make the electricity grid more intelligent to reduce essentially energy consumption and provide efficiency and reliability of power systems. The Smart Grid is a complex architecture that covers critical devices and systems vulnerable to significant attacks. Hence, security is a crucial factor for the success and the wide deployment of Smart Grids. In this paper, we present security issues of the Smart Grid architecture and we highlight open issues that will make the Smart Grid security a challenging research area in the future.

Keywords: Smart grids, smart meters, home area network, neighbor area network.

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Authors: Vijay Singh, Chandan Das

Abstract:

Synthetic juice clarification was done through spiral wound ultrafiltration (UF) membrane module. Synthetic juice was clarified at two different operating conditions, such as, with and without permeates recycle at turbulent flow regime. The performance of spiral wound ultrafiltration membrane was analyzed during clarification of synthetic juice. Synthetic juice was the mixture of deionized water, sucrose and pectin molecule. The operating conditions are: feed flowrate of 10 lpm, pressure drop of 413.7 kPa and Reynolds no of 5000. Permeate sample was analyzed in terms of volume reduction factor (VRF), viscosity (Pa.s), ⁰Brix, TDS (mg/l), electrical conductivity (μS) and turbidity (NTU). It was observe that the permeate flux declined with operating time for both conditions of with and without permeate recycle due to increase of concentration polarization and increase of gel layer on membrane surface. For without permeate recycle, the membrane fouling rate was faster compared to with permeate recycle. For without permeate recycle, the VRF rose up to 5 and for with recycle permeate the VRF is 1.9. The VRF is higher due to adsorption of solute (pectin) molecule on membrane surface and resulting permeateflux declined with VRF. With permeate recycle, quality was within acceptable limit. Fouled membrane was cleaned by applying different processes (e.g., deionized water, SDS and EDTA solution). Membrane cleaning was analyzed in terms of permeability recovery.

Keywords: Synthetic juice, Spiral wound, ultrafiltration, Reynolds No, Volume reduction factor.

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Authors: Togzhan D. Mukasheva, Anel A. Omirbekova, Raikhan S. Sydykbekova, Ramza Zh. Berzhanova, Lyudmila V. Ignatova

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In studying the possibility of using plants as rhizoremediators, barley and grass mixture which showed resistance to various concentrations of oil were selected. The minimum inhibitory effect of oil on these plants by morphological parameters such as survival of plants, length and biomass of shoot and root compared with the control was showed. In determining physiological parameters, a slight decrease in the number of chlorophyll a and b in the leaves of plants was noted. The differences in the ratio of the total surface of the roots to the work surface with the growth of plants in soil with oil in the study of adsorption of the root surface were showed.

Keywords: Length of shoot and root, biomass, chlorophyll a and b, adsorption surface, barley, grass mixture.

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Authors: S. Thirumurugan, D. R. Prince Williams

Abstract:

Software Reliability is one of the key factors in the software development process. Software Reliability is estimated using reliability models based on Non Homogenous Poisson Process. In most of the literature the Software Reliability is predicted only in testing phase. So it leads to wrong decision-making concept. In this paper, two Software Reliability concepts, testing and operational phase are studied in detail. Using S-Shaped Software Reliability Growth Model (SRGM) and Exponential SRGM, the testing and operational reliability values are obtained. Finally two reliability values are compared and optimal release time is investigated.

Keywords: Error Detection Rate, Estimation of Parameters, Instantaneous Failure Rate, Mean Value Function, Non Homogenous Poisson Process (NHPP), Software Reliability.

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Authors: Astghik R. Sukiasyan

Abstract:

Under the drought stress condition, the plants would grow slower. Temperature is one of the most important abiotic factors which suppress the germination processes. However, the processes of transpiration are regulated directly by the cell water, which followed to an increase in volume of vacuoles. During stretching under the influence of water pressure, the cell goes into the state of turgor. In our experiments, lines of the semi-dental sweet maize of Armenian population from various zones of growth under mild and severe drought stress were tested. According to results, the value of the water balance of the plant cells may reflect the ability of plants to adapt to drought stress. It can be assumed that the turgor allows evaluating the number of received dissolved substance in cell.

Keywords: Water balance, turgor, drought stress, Armenian population of maize.

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Authors: Aleš Florian, Lenka Ševelová

Abstract:

Complex sensitivity analysis of stresses in a concrete slab of the real type of rigid pavement made from recycled materials is performed. The computational model of the pavement is designed as a spatial (3D) model, is based on a nonlinear variant of the finite element method that respects the structural nonlinearity, enables to model different arrangements of joints, and the entire model can be loaded by the thermal load. Interaction of adjacent slabs in joints and contact of the slab and the subsequent layer are modeled with the help of special contact elements. Four concrete slabs separated by transverse and longitudinal joints and the additional structural layers and soil to the depth of about 3m are modeled. The thickness of individual layers, physical and mechanical properties of materials, characteristics of joints, and the temperature of the upper and lower surface of slabs are supposed to be random variables. The modern simulation technique Updated Latin Hypercube Sampling with 20 simulations is used. For sensitivity analysis the sensitivity coefficient based on the Spearman rank correlation coefficient is utilized. As a result, the estimates of influence of random variability of individual input variables on the random variability of principal stresses s1 and s3 in 53 points on the upper and lower surface of the concrete slabs are obtained.

Keywords: Concrete, FEM, pavement, sensitivity, simulation.

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Authors: Zuzana Poborilova, Anna B. Ohlsson, Torkel Berglund, Anna Vildova, Petr Babula

Abstract:

Lawsone is a pigment that occurs naturally in plants. It has been used as a skin and hair dye for a long time. Moreover, its different biological activities have been reported. The present study focused on the effect of lawsone on a plant cell model represented by tobacco BY-2 cell suspension culture, which is used as a model comparable with the HeLa cells. It has been shown that lawsone inhibits the cell growth in the concentration-dependent manner. In addition, changes in DNA methylation level have been determined. We observed decreasing level of DNA methylation in the presence of increasing concentrations of lawsone. These results were accompanied with overproduction of reactive oxygen species (ROS). Since epigenetic modifications can be caused by different stress factors, there could be a connection between the changes in the level of DNA methylation and ROS production caused by lawsone.

Keywords: DNA methylation, Lawsone, Naphthoquinone, Reactive Oxygen Species.

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Authors: Fabrício José Piacente, Vanessa de Cillos Silva, Thigo Luiz Mello Melato

Abstract:

The construction industry has been demonstrating increased growth and importance in Brazil’s national economic development. This study aims to evaluate the financial performance of the leading companies in the construction sector in Brazil in the period from 2009 to 2012. An analysis is made of the capital structure, liquidity, and profitability of the six largest companies in the construction sector in Brazil: Brookfield, Cyrela, Gafisa, MRV, PDG and Rossi. The results are then compared with standard industry ratios. It was found that among the companies analyzed, MRV and Cyrela showed the best relative performance in the period under consideration.

Keywords: Accounting ratios, construction, financial performance.

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Authors: E. Moradimaram, H. Sayehvand

Abstract:

In recent years the increasing use of fossil fuels has led to various environmental problems including urban pollution, ozone layer depletion and acid rains. Moreover, with the increased number of industrial centers and higher consumption of these fuels, the end point of the fossil energy reserves has become more evident. Considering the environmental pollution caused by fossil fuels and their limited availability, renewable sources can be considered as the main substitute for non-renewable resources. One of these resources is the Organic Rankine Cycles (ORCs). These cycles while having high safety, have low maintenance requirements. Combining the ORCs with other systems, such as ejector and reheater will increase overall cycle efficiency. In this study, ejector and reheater are used to improve the thermal efficiency (ηth), exergy efficiency (η_ex) and net output power (w_net); therefore, the ORCs with reheater (RORCs) are proposed. A computational program has been developed to calculate the thermodynamic parameters required in Engineering Equations Solver (EES). In this program, the analysis of the first and second law in RORC is conducted, and a comparison is made between them and the ORCs with Ejector (EORC). R245fa is selected as the working fluid and water is chosen as low temperature heat source with a temperature of 95 °C and a mass transfer rate of 1 kg/s. The pressures of the second evaporator and reheater are optimized in terms of maximum exergy efficiency. The environment is at 298.15 k and at 101.325 kpa. The results indicate that the thermodynamic parameters in the RORC have improved compared to EORC.

Keywords: Organic rankine cycle, organic rankine cycle with reheater, organic rankine cycle with ejector, exergy efficiency.

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Authors: Ying-Hsiu Chen, Pao-Peng Hsu

Abstract:

This paper adopts a two-stage data envelopment analysis to explore the impacts of financial development and bank operating scale on bank efficiencies. The sample comprises unbalanced panel data of 32 Taiwanese listed domestic commercial banks over the period 1998 to 2013. Empirical results show that pure technical efficiency is positively related to financial development, whereas the effect of financial development on scale efficiency is insignificant. Enlargement of bank operating scale improves bank efficiencies, but the efficiency gains are decreased gradually when the scale increases. Increases in capital adequacy ratio and market power of loans lead into a growth of bank efficiencies.

Keywords: Financial development, Operating scale, Efficiency, DEA.

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Authors: Xiangtuo Chen, Paul-Henry Cournéde

Abstract:

Crop yield prediction is a paramount issue in agriculture. The main idea of this paper is to find out efficient way to predict the yield of corn based meteorological records. The prediction models used in this paper can be classified into model-driven approaches and data-driven approaches, according to the different modeling methodologies. The model-driven approaches are based on crop mechanistic modeling. They describe crop growth in interaction with their environment as dynamical systems. But the calibration process of the dynamic system comes up with much difficulty, because it turns out to be a multidimensional non-convex optimization problem. An original contribution of this paper is to propose a statistical methodology, Multi-Scenarios Parameters Estimation (MSPE), for the parametrization of potentially complex mechanistic models from a new type of datasets (climatic data, final yield in many situations). It is tested with CORNFLO, a crop model for maize growth. On the other hand, the data-driven approach for yield prediction is free of the complex biophysical process. But it has some strict requirements about the dataset. A second contribution of the paper is the comparison of these model-driven methods with classical data-driven methods. For this purpose, we consider two classes of regression methods, methods derived from linear regression (Ridge and Lasso Regression, Principal Components Regression or Partial Least Squares Regression) and machine learning methods (Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbor, Artificial Neural Network and SVM regression). The dataset consists of 720 records of corn yield at county scale provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the associated climatic data. A 5-folds cross-validation process and two accuracy metrics: root mean square error of prediction(RMSEP), mean absolute error of prediction(MAEP) were used to evaluate the crop prediction capacity. The results show that among the data-driven approaches, Random Forest is the most robust and generally achieves the best prediction error (MAEP 4.27%). It also outperforms our model-driven approach (MAEP 6.11%). However, the method to calibrate the mechanistic model from dataset easy to access offers several side-perspectives. The mechanistic model can potentially help to underline the stresses suffered by the crop or to identify the biological parameters of interest for breeding purposes. For this reason, an interesting perspective is to combine these two types of approaches.

Keywords: Crop yield prediction, crop model, sensitivity analysis, paramater estimation, particle swarm optimization, random forest.

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