Search results for: risk Assessment.

Authors: M.A. Lazim, M. Suriani

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Knowing consumers' preferences and perceptions of the sensory evaluation of drink products are very significant to manufacturers and retailers alike. With no appropriate sensory analysis, there is a high risk of market disappointment. This paper aims to rank the selected coffee products and also to determine the best of quality attribute through sensory evaluation using fuzzy decision making model. Three products of coffee drinks were used for sensory evaluation. Data were collected from thirty judges at a hypermarket in Kuala Terengganu, Malaysia. The judges were asked to specify their sensory evaluation in linguistic terms of the quality attributes of colour, smell, taste and mouth feel for each product and also the weight of each quality attribute. Five fuzzy linguistic terms represent the quality attributes were introduced prior analysing. The judgment membership function and the weights were compared to rank the products and also to determine the best quality attribute. The product of Indoc was judged as the first in ranking and 'taste' as the best quality attribute. These implicate the importance of sensory evaluation in identifying consumers- preferences and also the competency of fuzzy approach in decision making.

Keywords: fuzzy decision making, fuzzy linguistic, membership function, sensory evaluation,

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Authors: Nafe Moradkhani, Frederick Benaben, Benoit Montreuil, Ali Vatankhah Barenji, Dima Nazzal

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In the context of the global pandemic, the practical management of the 2020 presidential election in the USA was a strong concern. To anticipate and prepare for this election accurately, one of the main challenges was to confront: (i) forecasts of voter turnout, (ii) capacities of the facilities and, (iii) potential configuration options of resources. The approach chosen to conduct this anticipative study consists of collecting data about forecasts and using simulation models to work simultaneously on resource allocation and facility configuration of polling places in Fulton County, Georgia’s largest county. This article presents the results of the simulations of such places facing pre-identified potential risks. These results are oriented towards the efficiency of these places according to different criteria (health, trust, comfort). Then a dynamic framework is introduced to describe risks as physical forces perturbing the efficiency of the observed system. Finally, the main benefits and contributions resulting from this simulation campaign are presented.

Keywords: performance, decision support, simulation, artificial intelligence, risk management, election, pandemics, information system

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Authors: Natasha Hussain, Maleeha Aslam, Robina Farooq

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Hepatitis B and hepatitis C are among the most significant hepatic infections all around the world that may lead to hepatocellular carcinoma. This study is first time performed at the blood transfussion centre of Omar hospital, Lahore. It aims to determine the sero-prevalence of these diseases by screening the apparently healthy blood donors who might be the carriers of HBV or HCV and pose a high risk in the transmission. It also aims the comparison between the sensitivity of two diagnostic tests; chromatographic immunoassay – one step test device and Enzyme Linked Immuno Sorbant Assay (ELISA). Blood serum of 855 apparently healthy blood donors was screened for Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and for anti HCV antibodies. SPSS version 12.0 and X2 (Chi-square) test were used for statistical analysis. The seroprevalence of HCV was 8.07% by the device method and by ELISA 9.12% and that of HBV was 5.6% by the device and 6.43% by ELISA. The unavailability of vaccination against HCV makes it more prevalent. Comparing the two diagnostic methods, ELISA proved to be more sensitive.

Keywords: ELISA, Sensitivity comparison of diagnostic tests, seroprevalence of Hepatitis B and C

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Authors: M. Kosandi, V. Susanti, N. I. Subono, E. Kartini

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This paper discusses the risk of glorification trap in combating human trafficking, as it is shown in the case of Indonesia. Based on a research on Indonesian combat against trafficking in 2017-2018, this paper shows the tendency of misinterpretation and misapplication of the Indonesian anti-trafficking law into misusing the law for glorification, to create an image of certain extent of achievement in combating human trafficking. The objective of this paper is to explain the persistent occurrence of human trafficking crimes despite the significant progress of anti-trafficking efforts of Indonesian government. The research was conducted in 2017-2018 by qualitative approach through observation, depth interviews, discourse analysis, and document study, applying the three-dimensional model for analyzing human trafficking in the source country. This paper argues that the drive for glorification of achievement in the combat against trafficking has trapped Indonesian government in the loop of misinterpretation, misapplication, and misuse of the anti-trafficking law. In return, the so-called crime against humanity remains high and tends to increase in Indonesia.

Keywords: Human trafficking, anti-trafficking policy, transnational crime, source country, glorification trap.

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Authors: D. Danesh, M. J. Ryan, A. Abbasi

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Project Portfolio Management (PPM) is an essential component of an organisation’s strategic procedures, which requires attention of several factors to envisage a range of long-term outcomes to support strategic project portfolio decisions. To evaluate overall efficiency at the portfolio level, it is essential to identify the functionality of specific projects as well as to aggregate those findings in a mathematically meaningful manner that indicates the strategic significance of the associated projects at a number of levels of abstraction. PPM success is directly associated with the quality of decisions made and poor judgment increases portfolio costs. Hence, various Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques have been designed and employed to support the decision-making functions. This paper reviews possible options to enhance the decision-making outcomes in organisational portfolio management processes using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) both from academic and practical perspectives and will examine the usability, certainty and quality of the technique. The results of the study will also provide insight into the technical risk associated with current decision-making model to underpin initiative tracking and strategic portfolio management.

Keywords: Analytic hierarchy process, decision support systems, multi-criteria decision-making, project portfolio management.

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Authors: Minky Son, Chanin Park, Ayoung Baek, Shalini John, Keun Woo Lee

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3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A reductase (HMGR) catalyzes the conversion of HMG-CoA to mevalonate using NADPH and the enzyme is involved in rate-controlling step of mevalonate. Inhibition of HMGR is considered as effective way to lower cholesterol levels so it is drug target to treat hypercholesterolemia, major risk factor of cardiovascular disease. To discover novel HMGR inhibitor, we performed structure-based pharmacophore modeling combined with molecular dynamics (MD) simulation. Four HMGR inhibitors were used for MD simulation and representative structure of each simulation were selected by clustering analysis. Four structure-based pharmacophore models were generated using the representative structure. The generated models were validated used in virtual screening to find novel scaffolds for inhibiting HMGR. The screened compounds were filtered by applying drug-like properties and used in molecular docking. Finally, four hit compounds were obtained and these complexes were refined using energy minimization. These compounds might be potential leads to design novel HMGR inhibitor.

Keywords: Anti-hypercholesterolemia drug, HMGR inhibitor, Molecular dynamics simulation, Structure-based pharmacophore modeling.

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Authors: Taghreed Abu-Salim

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This paper develops and investigates a framework for the assessment of customer involvement in the service design process of result oriented product-service systems in order to improve the service offering in a business-to-business (B2B) context. The framework comprises five main criteria and fifteen sub-criteria that contribute to customer involvement in a hierarchy using a maturity grid to highlight the strengths and weaknesses for each criterion. To develop the customer involvement framework, an extensive literature review related to service design, result oriented product-service system (PSS) and customer involvement in service design was carried out. Key factors that significantly influence customer involvement from industry and literature were identified to develop the framework. A major contribution of the developed framework includes a hierarchy of appropriate criteria for assessing customer involvement in the service design process within results oriented PSS; the definition of four maturity levels which are suitable to describe the whole spectrum of customer involvement in the service design process; and finally, The paper concludes by enabling service providers to: take proactive decisions; screen and evaluate new services; improve perceived service quality; and provide barriers against imitation.

Keywords: Customer involvement, maturity grid, new service development, result oriented product-service system, service design.

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Authors: D. Subedi, S. Pradhan

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Current transformers are an integral part of power system because it provides a proportional safe amount of current for protection and measurement applications. However, when the power system experiences an abnormal situation leading to huge current flow, then this huge current is proportionally injected to the protection and metering circuit. Since the protection and metering equipment’s are designed to withstand only certain amount of current with respect to time, these high currents pose a risk to man and equipment. Therefore, during such instances, the CT saturation characteristics have a huge influence on the safety of both man and equipment and on the reliability of the protection and metering system. This paper shows the effect of burden on the Accuracy Limiting factor/ Instrument security factor of current transformers and the change in saturation characteristics of the CT’s. The response of the CT to varying levels of overcurrent at different connected burden will be captured using the data acquisition software LabVIEW. Analysis is done on the real time data gathered using LabVIEW. Variation of current transformer saturation characteristics with changes in burden will be discussed.

Keywords: Accuracy limiting factor, burden, current transformer, instrument security factor, saturation characteristics.

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Authors: J. P. Dubois, O. M. Abdul-Latif

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Support Vector Machine (SVM) is a statistical learning tool that was initially developed by Vapnik in 1979 and later developed to a more complex concept of structural risk minimization (SRM). SVM is playing an increasing role in applications to detection problems in various engineering problems, notably in statistical signal processing, pattern recognition, image analysis, and communication systems. In this paper, SVM was applied to the detection of medical ultrasound images in the presence of partially developed speckle noise. The simulation was done for single look and multi-look speckle models to give a complete overlook and insight to the new proposed model of the SVM-based detector. The structure of the SVM was derived and applied to clinical ultrasound images and its performance in terms of the mean square error (MSE) metric was calculated. We showed that the SVM-detected ultrasound images have a very low MSE and are of good quality. The quality of the processed speckled images improved for the multi-look model. Furthermore, the contrast of the SVM detected images was higher than that of the original non-noisy images, indicating that the SVM approach increased the distance between the pixel reflectivity levels (detection hypotheses) in the original images.

Keywords: LS-SVM, medical ultrasound imaging, partially developed speckle, multi-look model.

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Authors: Samera Salimpour Abkenar

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In traditional dyeing of natural fibers with natural dyes, metal salts are commonly used to increase color stability. This method always carries the risk of environmental pollution (contamination of arable soils and fresh groundwater) due to the release of dyeing effluents containing large amounts of metal. Therefore, researchers are always looking for new methods to obtain a green dyeing system. In this research, the use of the enzymatic dyeing method to prevent environmental pollution with metals and reduce production costs has been proposed. After degumming and bleaching, raw silk fabrics were dyed with natural dyes (Madder and Sumac) by three methods (pre-mordanting with a metal salt, one-step enzymatic dyeing, and two-step enzymatic dyeing). Results show that silk dyed with natural dyes by the enzymatic method has higher color strength and colorfastness than the pretreated with a metal salt. Also, the amount of remained dyes in the dyeing wastewater is significantly reduced by the enzymatic method. It is found that the enzymatic dyeing method leads to improvement of dye absorption, color strength, soft hand, no change in color shade, low production costs (due to low dyeing temperature), and a significant reduction in environmental pollution.

Keywords: Eco-friendly, natural dyes, silk, traditional dyeing.

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Authors: Nasser M. Amaitik, Nabil A. Alfagi

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The world-s largest Pre-stressed Concrete Cylinder Pipe (PCCP) water supply project had a series of pipe failures which occurred between 1999 and 2001. This has led the Man-Made River Authority (MMRA), the authority in charge of the implementation and operation of the project, to setup a rehabilitation plan for the conveyance system while maintaining the uninterrupted flow of water to consumers. At the same time, MMRA recognized the need for a long term management tool that would facilitate repair and maintenance decisions and enable taking the appropriate preventive measures through continuous monitoring and estimation of the remaining life of each pipe. This management tool is known as the Pipe Risk Management System (PRMS) and now in operation at MMRA. Both the rehabilitation plan and the PRMS require the availability of complete and accurate pipe construction and manufacturing data This paper describes a systematic approach of data collection, analysis, evaluation and correction for the construction and manufacturing data files of phase I pipes which are the platform for the PRMS database and any other related decision support system.

Keywords: Asbuilt, History, IMD, MMRA, PDBMS & PRMS

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Authors: J. P. Dubois, O. M. Abdul-Latif

Abstract:

Support Vector Machine (SVM) is a statistical learning tool that was initially developed by Vapnik in 1979 and later developed to a more complex concept of structural risk minimization (SRM). SVM is playing an increasing role in applications to detection problems in various engineering problems, notably in statistical signal processing, pattern recognition, image analysis, and communication systems. In this paper, SVM was applied to the detection of SAR (synthetic aperture radar) images in the presence of partially developed speckle noise. The simulation was done for single look and multi-look speckle models to give a complete overlook and insight to the new proposed model of the SVM-based detector. The structure of the SVM was derived and applied to real SAR images and its performance in terms of the mean square error (MSE) metric was calculated. We showed that the SVM-detected SAR images have a very low MSE and are of good quality. The quality of the processed speckled images improved for the multi-look model. Furthermore, the contrast of the SVM detected images was higher than that of the original non-noisy images, indicating that the SVM approach increased the distance between the pixel reflectivity levels (the detection hypotheses) in the original images.

Keywords: Least Square-Support Vector Machine, SyntheticAperture Radar. Partially Developed Speckle, Multi-Look Model.

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Authors: Vakhtang Geladze, Nana Bolashvili, Tamazi Karalashvili, Nino Machavariani, Vajha Neidze, Nana Kvirkvelia, Tamar Chichinadze

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Deficiency of fresh water is a vital global problem today. It must be taken into consideration that in the nearest future fresh water crisis will become even more acute owing to the global climate warming and fast desertification processes in the world. Georgia has signed the association agreement with Euro Union last year where the priority spheres of cooperation are the management of water resources, development of trans-boundary approach to the problem and active participation in the “Euro Union water initiative” component of “the East Europe, Caucasus and the Central Asia”. Fresh water resources are the main natural wealth of Georgia. According to the average water layer height, Georgia is behind such European countries only as Norway, Switzerland and Austria. The annual average water provision of Georgia is 4-8 times higher than in its neighbor countries Armenia and Azerbaijan. Despite abundant water resources in Georgia, there is considerable discrepancy between their volume and use in some regions because of the uneven territorial distribution. In the East Georgia, water supply of the territory and population is four times less than in the West Georgia.

Keywords: GIS, sociological survey, water consumption, water resources.

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Authors: Olayinka Gafar Okeola, Akinola Muyiwa Moore

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Urban population is rapidly increasing in Ilorin, (the capital of Kwara State of Nigeria) along with related increased water demand. The inadequacies of water supply services have forced the populace to depend on dug wells, boreholes, water tankers, street vendors etc. for their water needs. People spend hours daily carrying jerry can all around to collect and queue for water at the public water tap with high opportunity cost both in time and economic wastage. This situation motivated this study to assess the sustainability of an urban water supply services to unravel the factors undermining the effective delivery of services. Contingent Valuation Method was used to place value on water supply services using the Double Bounded Dichotomous Choice format for willingness to pay elicitation. A database was created with Microsoft Excel and Stata 12 Software to model and evaluate the variables that affect household willingness to pay. The results of the study reveal that about 92% of the total households surveyed were connected to the Government water supply out of which 87% reported that they were not satisfied with the existing services. The results furthered revealed that respondents are willing to pay ₦2500 monthly to enjoy sustainable water supply service delivery.

Keywords: Willingness-to-pay, contingent valuation method, Nigeria, service, delivery.

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Authors: Ming Ling Lai, Zalilawati Yaacob, Normah Omar, Norashikin Abdul Aziz, Bee Wah Yap

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This paper aims to (1) analyze the profiles of transgressors (detected evaders); (2) examine reason(s) that triggered a tax audit, causes of tax evasion, audit timeframe and tax penalty charged; and (3) to assess if tax auditors followed the guidelines as stated in the 'Tax Audit Framework' when conducting tax audits. In 2011, the Inland Revenue Board Malaysia (IRBM) had audited and finalized 557 company cases. With official permission, data of all the 557 cases were obtained from the IRBM. Of these, a total of 421 cases with complete information were analyzed. About 58.1% was small and medium corporations and from the construction industry (32.8%). The selection for tax audit was based on risk analysis (66.8%), information from third party (11.1%), and firm with low profitability or fluctuating profit pattern (7.8%). The three persistent causes of tax evasion by firms were over claimed expenses (46.8%), fraudulent reporting of income (38.5%) and overstating purchases (10.5%). These findings are consistent with past literature. Results showed that tax auditors took six to 18 months to close audit cases. More than half of tax evaders were fined 45% on additional tax raised during audit for the first offence. The study found tax auditors did follow the guidelines in the 'Tax Audit Framework' in audit selection, settlement and penalty imposition.

Keywords: Corporate tax fraud, tax non-compliance, tax evasion, tax audit, fraudulent reporting.

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Authors: Mojahid F. Saeed Osman

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Repairable items inventory system is a management tool used to incorporate all information concerning inventory levels and movements for repaired and new items. This paper presents development of an effective simulation model for managing the inventory of repairable items for a production system where production lines send their faulty items to a repair shop considering the stochastic failure behavior and repair times. The developed model imitates the process of handling the on-hand inventory of repaired items and the replenishment of the inventory of new items using Economic Order Quantity and Reorder Point ordering policy in a flexible and risk-free environment. We demonstrate the appropriateness and effectiveness of the proposed simulation model using an illustrative case problem. The developed simulation model can be used as a reliable tool for estimating a healthy on-hand inventory of new and repaired items, backordered items, and downtime due to unavailability of repaired items, and validating and examining Economic Order Quantity and Reorder Point ordering policy, which would further be compared with other ordering strategies as future work.

Keywords: Inventory system, repairable items, simulation, maintenance, economic order quantity, reorder point.

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Authors: I Made Darmayuda, Zhou Jun, Krishna Mainali, Simon Ng Sheung Yan, Saisundar S, Eran Ofek

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Personnel protection devices are cardinal in safety hazard applications. They are widely used in home, office and in industry environments to reduce the risk of lethal shock to human being and equipment safety. This paper briefly reviews various personnel protection devices also describes the basic working principle of conventional ground fault circuit interrupter (GFCI) or ground fault isolator (GFI), its disadvantages and ways to overcome the disadvantages with solid-state relay (SSR) based GFI with ultrafast response up on fault implemented in printed circuit board. This solid state GFI comprises discrete MOSFET based alternating current (AC) switches, linear optical amplifier, photovoltaic isolator and sense resistor. In conventional GFI, current transformer is employed as a sensing element to detect the difference in current flow between live and neutral conductor. If there is no fault in equipment powered through GFI, due to insulation failure of internal wires and windings of motors, both live and neutral currents will be equal in magnitude and opposite in phase.

Keywords: current transformer, electrocution, GFCI, GFI

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Authors: Anjali Chatterjee, Nirmal Kumar Roy

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Economically transformers constitute one of the largest investments in a Power system. For this reason, transformer condition assessment and management is a high priority task. If a transformer fails, it would have a significant negative impact on revenue and service reliability. Monitoring the state of health of power transformers has traditionally been carried out using laboratory Dissolved Gas Analysis (DGA) tests performed at periodic intervals on the oil sample, collected from the transformers. DGA of transformer oil is the single best indicator of a transformer-s overall condition and is a universal practice today, which started somewhere in the 1960s. Failure can occur in a transformer due to different reasons. Some failures can be limited or prevented by maintenance. Oil filtration is one of the methods to remove the dissolve gases and prevent the deterioration of the oil. In this paper we analysis the DGA data by regression method and predict the gas concentration in the oil in the future. We bring about a comparative study of different traditional methods of regression and the errors generated out of their predictions. With the help of these data we can deduce the health of the transformer by finding the type of fault if it has occurred or will occur in future. Additional in this paper effect of filtration on the transformer health is highlight by calculating the probability of failure of a transformer with and without oil filtrating.

Keywords: Power Transformers, Dissolve gas Analysis, Regression method, Filtration, oil.

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Authors: Wang Liguang, Zhang Xueqing

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The build-operate-transfer (BOT) project delivery system has provided effective routes to mobilize private sector funds, innovative technologies, management skills and operational efficiencies for public infrastructure development and have been widely used in China during the last 20 years. Many BOT projects in China will be smoothly transferred to the government soon and the transfer stage, which is considered as the last stage, must be studied carefully and handled well to achieve the overall success of BOT projects. There will be many issues faced by both the public sector and private sector in the transfer stage of BOT projects, including project post-assessment, technology and documents transfer, personal training and staff transition, etc. and sometimes additional legislation is needed for future operation and management of facilities. However, most previous studies focused on the bidding, financing, and building and operation stages instead of transfer stage. This research identifies nine key issues in the transfer stage of BOT projects through a comprehensive study on three cases in China, and the expert interview and expert discussion meetings are held to validate the key issues and give detail analysis. A proposed framework of transfer management is prepared based on the experiences derived and lessons drawn from the case studies and expert interview and discussions, which is expected to improve the transfer management of BOT projects in practice.

Keywords: BOT project, key issues, transfer management transfer stage.

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Authors: George Yungchih Wang

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For decades financial economists have been attempted to determine the optimal investment policy by recognizing the option value embedded in irreversible investment whose project value evolves as a geometric Brownian motion (GBM). This paper aims to examine the effects of the optimal investment trigger and of the misspecification of stochastic processes on investment in real options applications. Specifically, the former explores the consequence of adopting optimal investment rules on the distributions of corporate value under the correct assumption of stochastic process while the latter analyzes the influence on the distributions of corporate value as a result of the misspecification of stochastic processes, i.e., mistaking an alternative process as a GBM. It is found that adopting the correct optimal investment policy may increase corporate value by shifting the value distribution rightward, and the misspecification effect may decrease corporate value by shifting the value distribution leftward. The adoption of the optimal investment trigger has a major impact on investment to such an extent that the downside risk of investment is truncated at the project value of zero, thereby moving the value distributions rightward. The analytical framework is also extended to situations where collection lags are in place, and the result indicates that collection lags reduce the effects of investment trigger and misspecification on investment in an opposite way.

Keywords: GBM, real options, investment trigger, misspecification, collection lags

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Authors: Marcel Chevalier, Léo Dupont, Sylvain Marié, Frédérique Roffet, Elena Stolyarova, William Templier, Costin Vasile

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Industrial end users are currently facing an increasing need to reduce the risk of unexpected failures and optimize their maintenance. This calls for both short-term analysis and long-term ageing anticipation. At Schneider Electric, we tackle those two issues using both Machine Learning and First Principles models. Machine learning models are incrementally trained from normal data to predict expected values and detect statistically significant short-term deviations. Ageing models are constructed from breaking down physical systems into sub-assemblies, then determining relevant degradation modes and associating each one to the right kinetic law. Validating such anomaly detection and maintenance models is challenging, both because actual incident and ageing data are rare and distorted by human interventions, and incremental learning depends on human feedback. To overcome these difficulties, we propose to simulate physics, systems and humans – including asset maintenance operations – in order to validate the overall approaches in accelerated time and possibly choose between algorithmic alternatives.

Keywords: Degradation models, ageing, anomaly detection, soft sensor, incremental learning.

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Authors: Bahram Esmaeili, Hamid Reza Imani Far, Hossein Hosseini, Mohammad Sharifi

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The present study investigated the relationship between personality characteristics of drivers and the number and amount of fines they have in a year .This study was carried out on 120 male taxi drivers that worked at least seven hours in a day in Lamerd - a city in the south of IRAN. Subjects were chosen voluntarily among those available. Predictive variables were the NEO –five great personality factors (1. conscientiousness 2. Openness to Experience 3.Neuroticism4 .Extraversion 5.Agreeableness ) thecriterion variables were the number and amount of fines the drivers have had the last three years. the result of regression analysis showed that conscientiousness factor was able to negatively predict the number and amount of financial fines the drivers had during the last three years. The openness factor positively predicted the number of fines they had in last 3 years and the amount of financial fines during the last year. The extraversion factor both meaningfully and positively could predict only the amount of financial fines they had during the last year. Increasing age was associated with decreasing driving offenses as well as financial loss.The findings can be useful in recognizing the high-risk drivers and leading them to counseling centers .They can also be used to inform the drivers about their personality and it’s relation with their accident rate. Such criteria would be of great importance in employing drivers in different places such as companies, offices etc…

Keywords: drivers, financial fines, neo five-factor personality

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Authors: P. Chatrabhuti, S. Visessri, T. Charinpanitkul

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Precision irrigation (PI) technology has emerged as a solution to optimize water usage in agriculture, aiming to maximize crop yields while minimizing water waste. Developing a PI for commercialization requires developers to research, synthesize, evaluate, and select appropriate technologies and make use of such information to produce innovative products. The objective of this review is to facilitate innovators by providing them with a summary of existing knowledge and the identification of gaps in research linking to the innovative development of PI. This paper reviews and synthesizes technologies and components relevant to precision irrigation, highlighting its potential benefits and challenges. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) framework is used for the review. As a result of this review, the different technologies have limitations and may only be suitable for specific orchards or spatial settings. The current technologies are readily available in a range of options, from affordable controllers to high-performance systems that are both reliable and precise. Furthermore, the future prospects for incorporating artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques hold promise for advancing autonomous irrigation systems.

Keywords: Innovation synthesis, technology assessment, precision irrigation technologies, precision irrigation components, new product development.

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Authors: Marina Velikova, Hennie Daniels, Ad Feelders

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In many data mining applications, it is a priori known that the target function should satisfy certain constraints imposed by, for example, economic theory or a human-decision maker. In this paper we consider partially monotone prediction problems, where the target variable depends monotonically on some of the input variables but not on all. We propose a novel method to construct prediction models, where monotone dependences with respect to some of the input variables are preserved by virtue of construction. Our method belongs to the class of mixture models. The basic idea is to convolute monotone neural networks with weight (kernel) functions to make predictions. By using simulation and real case studies, we demonstrate the application of our method. To obtain sound assessment for the performance of our approach, we use standard neural networks with weight decay and partially monotone linear models as benchmark methods for comparison. The results show that our approach outperforms partially monotone linear models in terms of accuracy. Furthermore, the incorporation of partial monotonicity constraints not only leads to models that are in accordance with the decision maker's expertise, but also reduces considerably the model variance in comparison to standard neural networks with weight decay.

Keywords: mixture models, monotone neural networks, partially monotone models, partially monotone problems.

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Authors: A. I. A. Rahman, Sh-Hussain Salleh, K. Ahmad, K. Anuar

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Analysis of vocal fold vibration is essential for understanding the mechanism of voice production and for improving clinical assessment of voice disorders. This paper presents a Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) based approach to analyze and objectively classify vocal fold vibration patterns. The proposed technique was designed and implemented on a Glottal Area Waveform (GAW) extracted from high-speed laryngeal images by delineating the glottal edges for each image frame. Feature extraction from the GAW was performed using Linear Predictive Coding (LPC). Several types of voice reference templates from simulations of clear, breathy, fry, pressed and hyperfunctional voice productions were used. The patterns of the reference templates were first verified using the analytical signal generated through Hilbert transformation of the GAW. Samples from normal speakers’ voice recordings were then used to evaluate and test the effectiveness of this approach. The classification of the voice patterns using the technique of LPC and DTW gave the accuracy of 81%.

Keywords: Dynamic Time Warping, Glottal Area Waveform, Linear Predictive Coding, High-Speed Laryngeal Images, Hilbert Transform.

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Authors: M. Okeke, A. Blyth

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Industrial Control Systems (ICS) such as Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA) can be seen in many different critical infrastructures, from nuclear management to utility, medical equipment, power, waste and engine management on ships and planes. The role SCADA plays in critical infrastructure has resulted in a call to secure them. Many lives depend on it for daily activities and the attack vectors are becoming more sophisticated. Hence, the security of ICS is vital as malfunction of it might result in huge risk. This paper describes how the application of Prey Predator (PP) approach in flocks of birds could enhance the detection of malicious activities on ICS. The PP approach explains how these animals in groups or flocks detect predators by following some simple rules. They are not necessarily very intelligent animals but their approach in solving complex issues such as detection through corporation, coordination and communication worth emulating. This paper will emulate flocking behavior seen in birds in detecting predators. The PP approach will adopt six nearest bird approach in detecting any predator. Their local and global bests are based on the individual detection as well as group detection. The PP algorithm was designed following MapReduce methodology that follows a Split Detection Convergence (SDC) approach.

Keywords: Industrial control systems, prey predator, SCADA, SDC.

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Authors: K. Hosseini, MD., R. Mazaheri, MD., H.R. Khoddami Vishteh, MD., M.A. Mansournia, MD., H. Angoorani, MD

Abstract:

Background: Tissue Doppler Echocardiography (TDE) assesses diastolic function more accurately than routine pulse Doppler echo. Assessment of the effects of dynamic and static exercises on the heart by using TDE can provides new information about the athlete-s heart syndrome. Methods: This study was conducted on 20 elite wrestlers, 14 endurance runners at national level and 21 non-athletes as the control group. Participants underwent two-dimensional echocardiography, standard Doppler and TDE. Results: Wrestlers had the highest left ventricular mass index, enddiastolic inter-ventricular septum thickness and left ventricular Posterior wall thickness. Runners had the highest Left ventricular end-diastolic volume, LV ejection fraction, stroke volume and cardiac output. In TDE, the early diastolic velocity of mitral annulus to the late diastolic velocity ratio in athletic groups was greater than the controls with no significant difference. Conclusion: In spite of cardiac morphological changes in athletes, TDE shows that cardiac diastolic function won-t be adversely affected.

Keywords: Tissue Doppler Echocardiography, Diastolic function, Athlete's heart syndrome, Static exercise, Dynamic exercise

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Authors: Veronica Diaz Quezada

Abstract:

A study and its preliminary results are presented. The research is descriptive and exploratory and it is still in process. Its objective is to develop an assessment method in the field of fostering values using competence mathematics problem solving. This is part of a more extensive research that aims at contributing to educational integration in Latin America, particularly to the development of proposals to link education for citizenship and the mathematics lessons. This is being carried out by research teams of University of Barcelona-España; University Nacional of Costa Rica; University Autónoma of Querétaro-México; Pontificia University Católica of Perú, University Nacional of Villa María- Argentina and University of Los Lagos-Chile, in the context of Andrés Bello Chair for the Association of Latin American Universities. This research was developed and implemented in Chile in 2016, using mixed research methods. It included interviews and a problem-solving math test with ethical values that was administered to students of the secondary education of the regions of Los Ríos and of the Lakes of Chile. The results show the lack of integration between the teaching of values and science discipline.

Keywords: Citizenship, ethical values, mathematics, secondary school, solving problem.

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Authors: Jin A Ryu, Ga Ye Kim, Hee Sun Kim

Abstract:

As the number of fire accidents is gradually raising, many studies have been reported on evacuation. Previous studies have mostly focused on evaluating the safety of evacuation and the risk of fire in particular buildings. However, studies on effects of various parameters on evacuation have not been nearly done. Therefore, this paper aims at observing evacuation time under the effect of fire initiated location. In this study, evacuation simulations are performed on a 5-floor building located in Seoul, South Korea using the commercial program, Fire Dynamics Simulator with Evacuation (FDS+EVAC). Only the fourth and fifth floors are modeled with an assumption that fire starts in a room located on the fourth floor. The parameter for evacuation simulations is location of fire initiation to observe the evacuation time and safety. Results show that the location of fire initiation is closer to exit, the more time is taken to evacuate. The case having the nearest location of fire initiation to exit has the lowest ratio of successful occupants to the total occupants. In addition, for safety evaluation, the evacuation time calculated from computer simulation model is compared with the tolerable evacuation time according to code in Japan. As a result, all cases are completed within the tolerable evacuation time. This study allows predicting evacuation time under various conditions of fire and can be used to evaluate evacuation appropriateness and fire safety of building.

Keywords: Evacuation safety, Evacuation simulation, FDS+Evac, Time.

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Authors: Gry M, Bergström J, Lengquist J, Lindberg J, Drobin K, Schwenk J, Nilsson P, Schuppe-Koistinen I.

Abstract:

Sensitive and predictive DILI (Drug Induced Liver Injury) biomarkers are needed in drug R&D to improve early detection of hepatotoxicity. The discovery of DILI biomarkers that demonstrate the predictive power to identify individuals at risk to DILI would represent a major advance in the development of personalized healthcare approaches. In this healthy volunteer acetaminophen study (4g/day for 7 days, with 3 monitored nontreatment days before and 4 after), 450 serum samples from 32 subjects were analyzed using protein profiling by antibody suspension bead arrays. Multiparallel protein profiles were generated using a DILI target protein array with 300 antibodies, where the antibodies were selected based on previous literature findings of putative DILI biomarkers and a screening process using pre dose samples from the same cohort. Of the 32 subjects, 16 were found to develop an elevated ALT value (2Xbaseline, responders). Using the plasma profiling approach together with multivariate statistical analysis some novel findings linked to lipid metabolism were found and more important, endogenous protein profiles in baseline samples (prior to treatment) with predictive power for ALT elevations were identified.

Keywords: DILI, Plasma profiling, PLSDA, Randomforest.

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