Search results for: generalized P´olya urn model

Authors: Jieh-Haur Chen, Pei-Fen Huang

Abstract:

This paper presents an integrated model that automatically measures the change of rivers, damage area of bridge surroundings, and change of vegetation. The proposed model is on the basis of a neurofuzzy mechanism enhanced by SOM optimization algorithm, and also includes three functions to deal with river imagery. High resolution imagery from FORMOSAT-2 satellite taken before and after the invasion period is adopted. By randomly selecting a bridge out of 129 destroyed bridges, the recognition results show that the average width has increased 66%. The ruined segment of the bridge is located exactly at the most scour region. The vegetation coverage has also reduced to nearly 90% of the original. The results yielded from the proposed model demonstrate a pinpoint accuracy rate at 99.94%. This study brings up a successful tool not only for large-scale damage assessment but for precise measurement to disasters.

Keywords: remote sensing image, damage assessment, typhoon disaster, bridge, ANN, fuzzy, SOM, optimization.

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Authors: Seyedsamad Tahani, Samira Ghorbanpour, Sekyung Han

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The global warming crisis forced humans to consider their place in the world and the earth's future. In this regard, Electric Vehicles (EVs) are a significant step towards protecting the environment. By identifying factors that influence people's behavior intentions toward using EVs, we proposed a theoretical model by extending the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), including three more concepts, Subjective Norm (SN), Self-Efficacy (SE), and Perceived Behavior Control (PBC). The study was conducted in South Korea, and a random sample was taken at a specific time. In order to collect data, a questionnaire was created in a Google Form and sent via Kakao Talk, a popular social media application used in Korea. There were about 220 participants in this survey. However, 201 surveys were completely done. The findings revealed that all factors in the TAM model and the other added concepts such as SNs, SE and PBC significantly affect the behavioral intention of using EVs.

Keywords: Electric vehicles, behavioral intention, subjective norm, self-efficacy, perceived behavior control.

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Authors: Norazah Mohd Suki, T Ramayah

Abstract:

e-Government structures permits the government to operate in a more transparent and accountable manner of which it increases the power of the individual in relation to that of the government. This paper identifies the factors that determine customer-s attitude towards e-Government services using a theoretical model based on the Technology Acceptance Model. Data relating to the constructs were collected from 200 respondents. The research model was tested using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) techniques via the Analysis of Moment Structure (AMOS 16) computer software. SEM is a comprehensive approach to testing hypotheses about relations among observed and latent variables. The proposed model fits the data well. The results demonstrated that e- Government services acceptance can be explained in terms of compatibility and attitude towards e-Government services. The setup of the e-Government services will be compatible with the way users work and are more likely to adopt e-Government services owing to their familiarity with the Internet for various official, personal, and recreational uses. In addition, managerial implications for government policy makers, government agencies, and system developers are also discussed.

Keywords: E-government, structural equation modelling, attitude, service.

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Authors: T. Cornelius, G. Secilmis

Abstract:

When dealing with safety in structures, the connections between structural components play an important role. Robustness of a structure as a whole depends both on the load- bearing capacity of the structural component and on the structures capacity to resist total failure, even though a local failure occurs in a component or a connection between components. To avoid progressive collapse it is necessary to be able to carry out a design for connections. A connection may be executed with anchors to withstand local failure of the connection in structures built with prefabricated components. For the design of these anchors, a model is developed for connections in structures performed in prefabricated autoclaved aerated concrete components. The design model takes into account the effect of anchors placed close to the edge, which may result in splitting failure. Further the model is developed to consider the effect of reinforcement diameter and anchor depth. The model is analytical and theoretically derived assuming a static equilibrium stress distribution along the anchor. The theory is compared to laboratory test, including the relevant parameters and the model is refined and theoretically argued analyzing the observed test results. The method presented can be used to improve safety in structures or even optimize the design of the connections

Keywords: Robustness, anchors, connections, aircrete, prefabricated components.

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Authors: Candido Alcaide, Manuel Dıaz, Luis Llopis, Antonio Marquez, Bartolome Rubio, Enrique Soler

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The increasing complexity of software development based on peer to peer networks makes necessary the creation of new frameworks in order to simplify the developer-s task. Additionally, some applications, e.g. fire detection or security alarms may require real-time constraints and the high level definition of these features eases the application development. In this paper, a service model based on a component model with real-time features is proposed. The high-level model will abstract developers from implementation tasks, such as discovery, communication, security or real-time requirements. The model is oriented to deploy services on small mobile devices, such as sensors, mobile phones and PDAs, where the computation is light-weight. Services can be composed among them by means of the port concept to form complex ad-hoc systems and their implementation is carried out using a component language called UM-RTCOM. In order to apply our proposals a fire detection application is described.

Keywords: Peer-to-peer, mobile systems, real-time, service-oriented architecture.

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Authors: A. Perolini

Abstract:

Feature and model selection are in the center of attention of many researches because of their impact on classifiers- performance. Both selections are usually performed separately but recent developments suggest using a combined GA-SVM approach to perform them simultaneously. This approach improves the performance of the classifier identifying the best subset of variables and the optimal parameters- values. Although GA-SVM is an effective method it is computationally expensive, thus a rough method can be considered. The paper investigates a joined approach of Genetic Algorithm and kernel matrix criteria to perform simultaneously feature and model selection for SVM classification problem. The purpose of this research is to improve the classification performance of SVM through an efficient approach, the Kernel Matrix Genetic Algorithm method (KMGA).

Keywords: Feature and model selection, Genetic Algorithms, Support Vector Machines, kernel matrix.

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Authors: A. Jomartov, A. Tuleshov, B. Tultaev

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One of the main tasks in the development of textile machinery is to increase the rapidity of automatic looms, and consequently, their productivity. With increasing automatic loom speeds, the dynamic loads on their separate mechanisms and moving joints sharply increase. Dynamic research allows us to determine the weakest mechanisms of the automatic loom. The modern automatic loom consists of a large number of structurally different mechanisms. These are cam, lever, gear, friction and combined cyclic mechanisms. The modern automatic loom contains various mechatronic devices: A device for the automatic removal of faulty weft, electromechanical drive warp yarns, electronic controllers, servos, etc. In the paper, we consider the multibody dynamic model of the automatic loom on the software complex SimulationX. SimulationX is multidisciplinary software for modeling complex physical and technical facilities and systems. The multibody dynamic model of the automatic loom allows consideration of: The transition processes, backlash at the joints and nodes, the force of resistance and electric motor performance.

Keywords: Automatic loom, dynamics, model, multibody, SimulationX.

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Authors: Nicolò Vaiana, Giorgio Serino

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In this paper, a one-dimensional (1d) Parallel Elasto- Plastic Model (PEPM), able to simulate the uniaxial dynamic behavior of seismic isolators having a continuously decreasing tangent stiffness with increasing displacement, is presented. The parallel modeling concept is applied to discretize the continuously decreasing tangent stiffness function, thus allowing to simulate the dynamic behavior of seismic isolation bearings by putting linear elastic and nonlinear elastic-perfectly plastic elements in parallel. The mathematical model has been validated by comparing the experimental force-displacement hysteresis loops, obtained testing a helical wire rope isolator and a recycled rubber-fiber reinforced bearing, with those predicted numerically. Good agreement between the simulated and experimental results shows that the proposed model can be an effective numerical tool to predict the forcedisplacement relationship of seismic isolators within relatively large displacements. Compared to the widely used Bouc-Wen model, the proposed one allows to avoid the numerical solution of a first order ordinary nonlinear differential equation for each time step of a nonlinear time history analysis, thus reducing the computation effort, and requires the evaluation of only three model parameters from experimental tests, namely the initial tangent stiffness, the asymptotic tangent stiffness, and a parameter defining the transition from the initial to the asymptotic tangent stiffness.

Keywords: Base isolation, earthquake engineering, parallel elasto-plastic model, seismic isolators, softening hysteresis loops.

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Authors: Arellano Karina, Diego Avila-Pesántez, Leticia Vaca-Cárdenas, Alberto Arellano, Carmen Mantilla

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Nowadays, security threats in Voice over IP (VoIP) systems are an essential and latent concern for people in charge of security in a corporate network, because, every day, new Denial-of-Service (DoS) attacks are developed. These affect the business continuity of an organization, regarding confidentiality, availability, and integrity of services, causing frequent losses of both information and money. The purpose of this study is to establish the necessary measures to mitigate DoS threats, which affect the availability of VoIP systems, based on the Session Initiation Protocol (SIP). A Security Model called MS-DoS-SIP is proposed, which is based on two approaches. The first one analyzes the recommendations of international security standards. The second approach takes into account weaknesses and threats. The implementation of this model in a VoIP simulated system allowed to minimize the present vulnerabilities in 92% and increase the availability time of the VoIP service into an organization.

Keywords: Denial-of-service SIP attacks, MS-DoS-SIP, security model, VoIP-SIP vulnerabilities.

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Authors: Chi Jung Kim, Mincheol Whang, Eui Chul Lee

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In this paper, we propose a new method to distinguish between arousal and relaxation states by using multiple features acquired from a photoplethysmogram (PPG) and support vector machine (SVM). To induce arousal and relaxation states in subjects, 2 kinds of sound stimuli are used, and their corresponding biosignals are obtained using the PPG sensor. Two features–pulse to pulse interval (PPI) and pulse amplitude (PA)–are extracted from acquired PPG data, and a nonlinear classification between arousal and relaxation is performed using SVM. This methodology has several advantages when compared with previous similar studies. Firstly, we extracted 2 separate features from PPG, i.e., PPI and PA. Secondly, in order to improve the classification accuracy, SVM-based nonlinear classification was performed. Thirdly, to solve classification problems caused by generalized features of whole subjects, we defined each threshold according to individual features. Experimental results showed that the average classification accuracy was 74.67%. Also, the proposed method showed the better identification performance than the single feature based methods. From this result, we confirmed that arousal and relaxation can be classified using SVM and PPG features.

Keywords: Support Vector Machine, PPG, Emotion Recognition, Arousal, Relaxation

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Authors: Emmanuel Agunloye, Asterios Gavriilidis, Luca Mazzei

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Gold nanoparticles are commonly synthesized by reducing chloroauric acid with sodium citrate. This method, referred to as the citrate method, can produce spherical gold nanoparticles (NPs) in the size range 10-150 nm. Gold NPs of this size are useful in many applications. However, the NPs are usually polydisperse and irreproducible. A better understanding of the synthesis mechanisms is thus required. This work thoroughly investigated the only model that describes the synthesis. This model combines mass and population balance equations, describing the NPs synthesis through a sequence of chemical reactions. Chloroauric acid reacts with sodium citrate to form aurous chloride and dicarboxy acetone. The latter organizes aurous chloride in a nucleation step and concurrently degrades into acetone. The unconsumed precursor then grows the formed nuclei. However, depending on the pH, both the precursor and the reducing agent react differently thus affecting the synthesis. In this work, we investigated the model for different conditions of pH, temperature and initial reactant concentrations. To solve the model, we used Parsival, a commercial numerical code, whilst to test it, we considered various conditions studied experimentally by different researchers, for which results are available in the literature. The model poorly predicted the experimental data. We believe that this is because the model does not account for the acid-base properties of both chloroauric acid and sodium citrate.

Keywords: Gold nanoparticles, Citrate method, Turkevich organizer theory, population balance modelling.

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Authors: Yanqin Chen, Chao Jiang, Chongdu Cho

Abstract:

This research presents the three-dimensional mechanical characteristics of a commercial gas diffusion layer by experiment and simulation results. Although the mechanical performance of gas diffusion layers has attracted much attention, its reliability and accuracy are still a major challenge. With the help of simulation analysis methods, it is beneficial to the gas diffusion layer’s extensive commercial development and the overall stress analysis of proton electrolyte membrane fuel cells during its pre-production design period. Therefore, in this paper, a three-dimensional constitutive model of a commercial gas diffusion layer, including its material stiffness matrix parameters, is developed and coded, in the user-defined material model of a commercial finite element method software for simulation. Then, the model is validated by comparing experimental results as well as simulation outcomes. As a result, both the experimental data and simulation results show a good agreement with each other, with high accuracy.

Keywords: Gas diffusion layer, proton electrolyte membrane fuel cell, stiffness matrix, three-dimensional mechanical characteristics, user-defined material model.

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Authors: Shu-Lu Hsu, Fang-Yi Chu

Abstract:

With the advances in information and communications technology, mobile context-aware applications have become powerful marketing tools. In Apple online store, there are numerous mobile applications (APPs) developed for destination tour. This study investigated the determinants of adoption of context-aware APPs for destination tour services. A model is proposed based on Technology Acceptance Model and privacy concern theory. The model was empirically tested based on a sample of 259 users of a tourism APP published by Kaohsiung Tourism Bureau, Taiwan. The results showed that the fitness of the model is well and, among all the factors, the perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use have the most significant influences on the intention to adopt context-aware destination APPs. Finally, contrary to the findings of previous literature, the effect of privacy concern on the adoption intention of context-aware APP is insignificant.

Keywords: Mobile Application, Context-Aware, Privacy Concern, TAM.

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Authors: S. Chumkiew, W. Srisang, K. Jaroensutasinee, M. Jaroensutasinee

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This work investigated the phenology of Parah tree (Elateriospermum tapos) using the General Purpose Atmosphere Plant Soil Simulator (GAPS model) to determine the amount of Plant Available Water (PAW) in the soil. We found the correlation between PAW and the timing of budburst and flower burst at Khao Nan National Park, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Thailand. PAW from the GAPS model can be used as an indicator of soil water stress. The low amount of PAW may lead to leaf shedding in Parah trees.

Keywords: Basic GAPS, Parah (Elateriospermum tapos), Phenology, Climate, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Thailand.

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Authors: Gracia V. Navarro, Maria V. Gonzalez, Carlos G. Reed

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The eudaimonic perspective in philosophy and psychology suggests that a good life is closely related to developing oneself in order to contribute to the well-being and happiness of other people and of the world as a whole. Educational psychology can help to achieve this through the design and validation of educative models. Since 2004, the University of Concepcion and other Chilean universities apply an educative model to train socially responsible professionals, people that in the exercise of their profession contribute to generate equity for the development and assess the impacts of their decisions, opting for those that serve the common good. The main aim is to identify if a relationship exists between achieved learning, attitudes toward social responsibility, self-attribution of socially responsible behavior, value type, professional behavior observed and, participation in a specific model to train socially responsible (SR) professionals. The Achieved Learning and Attitudes Toward Social Responsibility Questionnaire, interview with employers and Values Questionnaire and Self-attribution of SR Behavior Questionnaire is applied to 394 students and graduates, divided into experimental and control groups (trained and not trained under the educative model), in order to identify the professional behavior of the graduates. The results show that students and graduates perceive cognitive, affective and behavioral learning, with significant differences in attitudes toward social responsibility and self-attribution of SR behavior, between experimental and control. There are also differences in employers' perceptions about the professional practice of those who were trained under the model and those who were not. It is concluded that the educative model has an impact on the learning of social responsibility and educates for a full life. It is also concluded that it is necessary to identify mediating variables of the model effect.

Keywords: Educative model, good life, professional social responsibility (SR), values.

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Authors: Ali Nadi, Ali Edrissi

Abstract:

Relief demand and transportation links availability is the essential information that is needed for every natural disaster operation. This information is not in hand once a disaster strikes. Relief demand and network condition has been evaluated based on prediction method in related works. Nevertheless, prediction seems to be over or under estimated due to uncertainties and may lead to a failure operation. Therefore, in this paper a stochastic programming model is proposed to evaluate real-time relief demand and network condition at the onset of a natural disaster. To address the time sensitivity of the emergency response, the proposed model uses reinforcement learning for optimization of the total relief assessment time. The proposed model is tested on a real size network problem. The simulation results indicate that the proposed model performs well in the case of collecting real-time information.

Keywords: Disaster management, real-time demand, reinforcement learning, relief demand.

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Authors: Ε. Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper we present an autoregressive model with neural networks modeling and standard error backpropagation algorithm training optimization in order to predict the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of four countries. Specifically we propose a kind of weighted regression, which can be used for econometric purposes, where the initial inputs are multiplied by the neural networks final optimum weights from input-hidden layer after the training process. The forecasts are compared with those of the ordinary autoregressive model and we conclude that the proposed regression-s forecasting results outperform significant those of autoregressive model in the out-of-sample period. The idea behind this approach is to propose a parametric regression with weighted variables in order to test for the statistical significance and the magnitude of the estimated autoregressive coefficients and simultaneously to estimate the forecasts.

Keywords: Autoregressive model, Error back-propagation Feed-Forward neural networks, , Gross Domestic Product

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Authors: B. Kiyani, R. H. Amiri, S. H. Hosseini, A. Bourouni, A. Karimi

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Nowadays, offshore's complicated facilities need their own communications requirements. Nevertheless, developing and real-world applications of new communications technology are faced with tremendous problems for new technology users, developers and implementers. Traditional systems engineering cannot be capable to develop a new technology effectively because it does not consider the dynamics of the process. This paper focuses on the design of a holistic model that represents the dynamics of new communication technology development within offshore industry. The model shows the behavior of technology development efforts. Furthermore, implementing this model, results in new and useful insights about the policy option analysis for developing a new communications technology in offshore industry.

Keywords: Technology development, Offshore industry, Systemdynamics, Voice Over IP.

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Authors: E. Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper we present a Feed-Foward Neural Networks Autoregressive (FFNN-AR) model with genetic algorithms training optimization in order to predict the gross domestic product growth of six countries. Specifically we propose a kind of weighted regression, which can be used for econometric purposes, where the initial inputs are multiplied by the neural networks final optimum weights from input-hidden layer of the training process. The forecasts are compared with those of the ordinary autoregressive model and we conclude that the proposed regression-s forecasting results outperform significant those of autoregressive model. Moreover this technique can be used in Autoregressive-Moving Average models, with and without exogenous inputs, as also the training process with genetics algorithms optimization can be replaced by the error back-propagation algorithm.

Keywords: Autoregressive model, Feed-Forward neuralnetworks, Genetic Algorithms, Gross Domestic Product

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Authors: Mei-Hsiu Chi, Jyh-Yang Wu, Sheng-Gwo Chen

Abstract:

The diffusion-reaction equations are important Partial Differential Equations in mathematical biology, material science, physics, and so on. However, finding efficient numerical methods for diffusion-reaction systems on curved surfaces is still an important and difficult problem. The purpose of this paper is to present a convergent geometric method for solving the reaction-diffusion equations on closed surfaces by an O(r)-LTL configuration method. The O(r)-LTL configuration method combining the local tangential lifting technique and configuration equations is an effective method to estimate differential quantities on curved surfaces. Since estimating the Laplace-Beltrami operator is an important task for solving the reaction-diffusion equations on surfaces, we use the local tangential lifting method and a generalized finite difference method to approximate the Laplace-Beltrami operators and we solve this reaction-diffusion system on closed surfaces. Our method is not only conceptually simple, but also easy to implement.

Keywords: Close surfaces, high-order approach, numerical solutions, reaction-diffusion systems.

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Authors: Mesbaholdin Salami, Farzad Movahedi Sobhani, Mohammad Sadegh Ghazizadeh

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Evaluation of organizational performance is among the most important measures that help organizations and entities continuously improve their efficiency. Organizations can use the existing data and results from the comparison of units under investigation to obtain an estimation of their performance. The Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI) is an important index in the evaluation of overall productivity, which considers technological developments and technical efficiency at the same time. This article proposed a model based on the multistage MPI, considering limited data (Grey’s theory). This model can evaluate the performance of units using limited and uncertain data in a multistage process. It was applied by the electricity market manager to Iran’s electric power supply chain (EPSC), which contains uncertain data, to evaluate the performance of its actors. Results from solving the model showed an improvement in the accuracy of future performance of the units under investigation, using the Grey’s system theory. This model can be used in all case studies, in which MPI is used and there are limited or uncertain data.

Keywords: Malmquist Index, Grey's Theory, Charnes Cooper & Rhodes (CCR) Model, network data envelopment analysis, Iran electricity power chain.

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Authors: Changhyuk Jang, Keechul Jung

Abstract:

Human pose estimation can be executed using Active Shape Models. The existing techniques for applying to human-body research using Active Shape Models, such as human detection, primarily take the form of silhouette of human body. This technique is not able to estimate accurately for human pose to concern two arms and legs, as the silhouette of human body represents the shape as out of round. To solve this problem, we applied the human body model as stick-figure, “skeleton". The skeleton model of human body can give consideration to various shapes of human pose. To obtain effective estimation result, we applied background subtraction and deformed matching algorithm of primary Active Shape Models in the fitting process. The images which were used to make the model were 600 human bodies, and the model has 17 landmark points which indicate body junction and key features of human pose. The maximum iteration for the fitting process was 30 times and the execution time was less than .03 sec.

Keywords: Active shape models, skeleton, pose estimation.

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Authors: Shoji Katagiri, Hugang Han

Abstract:

This paper clarifies the role of ICT capital in economic growth. Albeit ICT remarkably contributes to economic growth, there are few studies on ICT capital in ICT sector from theoretical point of view. In this paper, production function of ICT which is used as input of intermediate good in final good and ICT sectors is incorporated into our model. In this setting, we analyze the role of ICT on balance growth path and show the possibility of general equilibrium solutions for this model. Through the simulation of the equilibrium solutions, we find that when ICT impacts on economy and economic growth increases, it is necessary that increases of efficiency at ICT sector and of accumulation of non-ICT and ICT capitals occur simultaneously.

Keywords: Endogenous economic growth, ICT, intensity, capital accumulation.

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Authors: M. Ravindra, R. Srinivasa Rao

Abstract:

This paper presents a Generalized Binary Integer Linear Programming (GBILP) method for optimal allocation of Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) and to generate Dynamic State Estimation (DSE) solution with complete observability. The GBILP method is formulated with Zero Injection Bus (ZIB) constraints to reduce the number of locations for placement of PMUs in the case of normal and single line contingency. The integration of PMU and conventional measurements is modeled in DSE process to estimate accurate states of the system. To estimate the dynamic behavior of the power system with proposed method, load change up to 40% considered at a bus in the power system network. The proposed DSE method is compared with traditional Weighted Least Squares (WLS) state estimation method in presence of load changes to show the impact of PMU measurements. MATLAB simulations are carried out on IEEE 14, 30, 57, and 118 bus systems to prove the validity of the proposed approach.

Keywords: Observability, phasor measurement units, PMU, state estimation, dynamic state estimation, SCADA measurements, zero injection bus.

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Authors: Ahmad Majdi Bin Abdul-Rani, Mesfin Gizaw, Yusri Yusof

Abstract:

Researches related to standard product model and development of neutral manufacturing interfaces for numerical control machines becomes a significant topic since the last 25 years. In this paper, a detail description of STEP implementation on turnmill manufacturing has been discussed. It shows requirements of information contents from ISO14649 data model. It covers to describe the design of STEP-NC framework applicable to turn-mill manufacturing. In the framework, EXPRESS-G and UML modeling tools are used to depict the information contents of the system and established the bases of information model requirement. A product and manufacturing data model applicable for STEP compliant manufacturing. The next generation turn-mill operations requirements have been represented by a UML diagram. An object oriented classes of ISO1449 has been developed on Visual Basic dot NET platform for binding the static information model represented by the UML diagram. An architect of the proposed system implementation has been given on the bases of the design and manufacturing module of STEP-NC interface established. Finally, a part 21 file process plan generated for an illustration of turn-mill components.

Keywords: CAPP, ISO14649, Product modeling, STEP-NC

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Authors: Samin Jirehbandei, Alireza Nemaney Pour

Abstract:

Bythe development of the Internet, e-commerce has got very popular between organizations. E-commerce means buying and selling products and services over the Internet. One of the challenging issues in e-commerce is how to attract the customers and how to satisfy them. Therefore, it is important to keep good relationship with the customers. This paper proposes a new model to increase the customer satisfaction by introducing live-operator. Live-operator is a system which is involved both with the customers and the organization.In this system the customers feelthatthey receive the service directly from the organization. This model decreases the response time and the customer loss. Moreover, it increases customer trust and the ability of organizations.

Keywords: Customer, Customer Satisfaction, e-Commerce, e-CRM, Live-Operator, Organization

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Authors: Myint Myint Yi, Khin Sandar Linn, Marlar Kyaw

Abstract:

This paper proposed a novel model for short term load forecast (STLF) in the electricity market. The prior electricity demand data are treated as time series. The model is composed of several neural networks whose data are processed using a wavelet technique. The model is created in the form of a simulation program written with MATLAB. The load data are treated as time series data. They are decomposed into several wavelet coefficient series using the wavelet transform technique known as Non-decimated Wavelet Transform (NWT). The reason for using this technique is the belief in the possibility of extracting hidden patterns from the time series data. The wavelet coefficient series are used to train the neural networks (NNs) and used as the inputs to the NNs for electricity load prediction. The Scale Conjugate Gradient (SCG) algorithm is used as the learning algorithm for the NNs. To get the final forecast data, the outputs from the NNs are recombined using the same wavelet technique. The model was evaluated with the electricity load data of Electronic Engineering Department in Mandalay Technological University in Myanmar. The simulation results showed that the model was capable of producing a reasonable forecasting accuracy in STLF.

Keywords: Neural network, Load forecast, Time series, wavelettransform.

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Authors: Ugur Akyol, Dinçer Akal, Ahmet Cihan, Kamil Kahveci

Abstract:

This study is concerned with the investigation of the suitability of several empirical and semi-empirical drying models available in the literature to define drying behavior of viscose yarn bobbins. For this purpose, firstly, experimental drying behaviour of viscose bobbins was determined on an experimental dryer setup which was designed and manufactured based on hot-air bobbin dryers used in textile industry. Afterwards, drying models considered were fitted to the experimentally obtained moisture ratios. Drying parameters were drying temperature and bobbin diameter. The fit was performed by selecting the values for constants in the models in such a way that these values make the sum of the squared differences between the experimental and the model results for moisture ratio minimum. Suitability of fitting was specified as comparing the correlation coefficient, standard error and mean square deviation. The results show that the most appropriate model in describing the drying curves of viscose bobbins is the Page model.

Keywords: Drying, moisture ratio, Page model, viscose

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Authors: Hycham Aboutaleb, Bruno Monsuez

Abstract:

Current systems complexity has reached a degree that requires addressing conception and design issues while taking into account environmental, operational, social, legal and financial aspects. Therefore, one of the main challenges is the way complex systems are specified and designed. The exponential growing effort, cost and time investment of complex systems in modeling phase emphasize the need for a paradigm, a framework and an environment to handle the system model complexity. For that, it is necessary to understand the expectations of the human user of the model and his limits. This paper presents a generic framework for designing complex systems, highlights the requirements a system model needs to fulfill to meet human user expectations, and suggests a graphbased formalism for modeling complex systems. Finally, a set of transformations are defined to handle the model complexity.

Keywords: Higraph-based, formalism, system engineering paradigm, modeling requirements, graph-based transformations.

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Authors: Manisha Chaudhary, Joydip Dhar, Govind Prasad Sahu

Abstract:

A mathematical model is proposed considering the forest biomass density B(t), density of wood based industries W(t) and density of synthetic industries S(t). It is assumed that the forest biomass grows logistically in the absence of wood based industries, but depletion of forestry biomass is due to presence of wood based industries. The growth of wood based industries depends on B(t), while S(t) grows at a constant rate, independent of B(t). Further there is a competition between W(t) and S(t) according to market demand. The proposed model has four ecologically feasible steady states, namely, E1: forest biomass free and wood industries free equilibrium; E2: wood industries free equilibrium and two coexisting equilibria E∗1 , E∗2 . Behavior of the system near all feasible equilibria is analyzed using the stability theory of differential equations. In the proposed model, the natural depletion rate h1 is a crucial parameter and system exhibits Hopf-bifurcation about the non-trivial equilibrium with respect to h1. The analytical results are verified using numerical simulation.

Keywords: A mathematical model, Competition between wood based and synthetic industries, Hopf-bifurcation, Stability analysis.

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